Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Albert Breer reports the top 3 teams won't trade with the Vikings -- NOW WHAT? (Part 1)

Episode Date: March 22, 2024

Matthew Coller talks about a report from NFL Insider Albert Breer that the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots have given the Vikings "polite no" answers to their inquiries about trading up. The Arizona Cardinals also are "open for business" according to NFL.com. Are the Vikings stuck with No. 4? Should they just roll with No. 11 and 23? What. Is. Going. On. https://surfshark.deals/PURPLEINSIDER Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and I have to start the show with a little bit of an apology that I created and scheduled this live stream early on this morning, and I'll admit the headline is pretty troll-y, so I apologize for those who saw it this morning and were like, wait a minute, I've got to wait all day long to talk about what Albert Breer had to say about the Minnesota Vikings and their situation regarding a potential trade up. And Cats for Days says, man, you can't be leaving us hanging all day with this post. Well, I am sorry for that. But also I noticed that a lot of you even started

commenting throughout the day. So maybe I actually was very smart in doing so. It's called a tease and you do it 11 hours early. Then people are really pumped to hear the take. I'm just kidding. Sort of. I just had it as a thing to do and made sure I did it. But now we're here and we're talking about it. So I won't waste any of your time. I have what Albert Breer had to say at Sports Illustrated about the current situation regarding the Vikings trading up. And then we'll break it down and dive deep into where we stand as we go into a Friday. It's always risky going into a Friday here at the end of March because that's when all the news at the NFL tends to drop. And with the owners' meetings next week, though, I don't know if we're going to get resolution by the weekend.

But, of course, I don't have big plans other than flying on Sunday and hoping that there isn't a snowstorm. I think I should probably rework my flight plans to go earlier to the owner's meetings because now I'm a little concerned that because there was no winter in Minnesota, that suddenly there's going to be lots of winter in the next couple of days. So I might have to do that, but, I'll just be hanging out, waiting, just like the rest of you for the next big news item to drop. But here is what Albert Breer had to say in Sports Illustrated. And this is via our friends over at Bring Me the News,

who partner with me at Purple Insider. So check out Bring Me the News. Here's what Breer had to say. That the Vikings were given, quote, polite polite nose when they attempted to trade up with the top three teams, obviously the bears commanders and the key one, the new England Patriots. And he says, quote, that doesn't mean that can't change. It's possible that as we get closer to the draft and the Patriots decide they like the, uh, that they like one of the non Caleb Williams quarterbacks, if that guy isn't there and they don't see the

others being worth the third pick, they could be willing to move the pick while they're on the clock on the clock. We got to wait until they're on the clock to find out what's going to happen here. Okay. Uh uh the rest of it says here from breer for right now it seems less likely that a trade into the top three will be there for the vikings which presumably would mean no drake may jayden daniels for minnesota with at least the perception those two are going to be nose from number two or i'm sorry with those two are going to be number two and number three which is what we're all assuming at the moment but can't be 100% sure with anything when it comes to the draft so Elber Breer there also dropped in that the Vikings were in pursuit

of LeJarius Sneed which of course Sneed has not found home yet. So I suppose that that's always possible as well. He wrote the chiefs, Vikings, lions, and the Colts were the teams early in on LeJarrius need Detroit, less likely now that they have gotten Carlton Davis, the other two lingering in the picture. He says, uh, this is very much all classic NFL insider speak, which we have to do nothing but respect it. Maybe this is this way, but maybe it could change. And they were in on this guy, but we'll see where it goes from there. And there's your update on the Minnesota Vikings.

But here's what we can say. As of right now, it seems that the New England Patriots want to wait to make the trade with the Minnesota Vikings. Now, does this mean that they are actually wanting to wait to see who the Washington commanders pick? Or are they saying, let's go up with that price, my friends? We are not doing it for what you're offering right now. We will absolutely take our favorite quarterback at number three, unless you guys pump up that price. So let's talk

about it throughout the evening here. Great to see so many of you who watch the show on a regular basis, and we're going to dive deep into it. Let me go all the way back to a comment that was left at 1130 in the morning. Maybe I need to do this more often. So I'll have ready-made all sorts of comments to talk about when I get here. JP says trade to number four draft day. Hope Washington fell in love with JJ McCarthy trade up to number two for the, and for the next year's first and 2026 first or second, if needed, get May at all costs,

not losing JJ and Derrissaw is a W. Yeah, just you mean now when we say JJ, we have to like which JJ, but not having to give up Jefferson or Derrissaw. I don't believe that they would do that, that they would trade Jefferson jefferson or derisaw or addison i just have a tough time seeing a player being involved although you know dj moore was part of a trade to go up to number one but a major part of the vikings success that they can project for their player is based on the fact that they have these weapons in this offensive line. So if they were to trade away any portion of that, that would be bad, all right? That wouldn't help you get closer to where you want to go.

I would listen to Jordan Addison, but even then, I'm not sure that I love that, that I love the idea of them trading away a player. But to your point, they could trade up to number four as an insurance policy to make sure they have number four. And then if they need to dip in to their future draft capital after that, go up to number two, or they can just wait and see how this thing plays out and have a bunch of different options when we get closer to the draft. Now he says that it might not happen until draft night. We don't ever really know.

I mean, this trade with Houston kind of came out of nowhere. Nobody had that being reported that the Vikings were going out to try to get extra draft capital to try to move up to the top. It just sort of happened, which is how most things have happened with the Vikings since Kweisi Adafo-Mensa and Kevin O'Connell took over. They don't really seem to play the through the national media insider game very often, which makes me think that we're going to find out when and if it happens.

But there are a lot of scenarios to talk our way through here, which is the one you laid out, making sure you get to number four, ensuring yourself that you get a top four pick. Now I've gone back and forth on what level of disaster it would be or what panic meter level Vikings fans should have if they were to not trade up into the top four. It's probably a code orange, But I was also thinking about Daniel Jeremiah and the fact that he was mocking Michael Penix at 13th overall. And if the Vikings came away with Penix, I think a lot of us on draft night would be like, what? You guys blew this. What the heck happened? But then again, I looked back just today at some of the other drafts that had five or six

quarterbacks in the first or second round. And a lot of times the fourth or fifth quarterback became one of the best quarterbacks in a lot of those drafts. I mean, think about 2020 is the best example where it's Jordan Love, QB4, Jalen Hurtsts QB five, both of those guys have turned out to be very good quarterbacks. So I, but I also think when you make this trade with the Texans, with the idea of moving up the very clear signal, we're going up to the top. Then you can't miss out on that. Like if that was your plan to get Kevin O'Connell, his guy, then you have to get Kevin O'Connell, his guy, and not whatever was left on the table.

Even if the odds might be fairly similar, that they're going to be successful. So let me go back through some of these other comments from earlier today. Chuck says, have no clue who Albert Breer is. Albert Breer has been around a while, uh, Chucky. So yeah, he's a sports illustrated. Um, and what was the sports illustrated before, not what it has become now, which is kind of a heap of steaming wreckage, but still a very credible insider in the NFL. Uh, if the Vikings did not have an agreement to get up to at least three, then this was a foolish move.

See, that is a great question. Was it a foolish move if they thought that they could get up to three but had no guarantee? If they talked with the Patriots and were given a polite no, as Elber Breer reports, but they have enough by your Jimmy Johnson chart and your other draft charts, if they did this with knowledge that they couldn't get up to three,

is it still worth it? And I think the answer is absolutely yes, because that doesn't say couldn't get up to number four. And number four is what guarantees you a top four prospect in the draft. That's what we're really looking for here. Now I would prefer they get Drake may a lot of you would prefer they get Drake may, but at the end of the day, do we really know for sure which one of those guys is going to be the better NFL quarterback? Of course we don't that if they're both drafted in the top five, then they both have very close odds of being

franchise quarterbacks and being successful. And even if I have way more questions about McCarthy than I do about May, historically, my opinion, your opinion, ESPN analysts opinion, whatever, has not really been predictive of success so i can sit here and say probably easier than maybe kevin o'connell if he has a preference but that would be my guess at how to read the trade if they didn't have a guarantee for number three that means kevin o'connell is comfortable with number four and if he's comfortable with number four then i'm comfortable with number four but they got he's comfortable with number four, then I'm comfortable with number four, but they got to make it happen and why it has not happened yet.

Now that's where it gets even more into the weeds of like, what's our theory here for why it hasn't happened. But if they get to number four, so that's my question. I'll, I'll scroll down to the more relevant comments here. A lot of you in the comments. So let me get back to what is most pressing here at the top. And again, appreciate so many people watching. So our comments are moving quickly. It's harder for me to read them, which is a good thing. But are we comfortable with number four? If the Vikings were already told that they can't get

to number three. And again, Breer says that could change. That could change in the same way that I would say, I don't want to sell my house. And if someone said, how about I give you twice what you bought it for? I would say, I hope you enjoy the house. Here's the keys and we will catch you later. I mean, that works this way for pretty much everything, right? Is there's always a price. There is always a amount that you can give a team to change their mind. So what New England is thinking right now might be, look, we want to draft one of these quarterbacks,

but New England needs so much. They need so much on their roster. They have almost nothing. They have no legitimate weapons. They have a bad offensive line. I think Belichick was still squeezing a lot out of their defense, but I really don't think that they had a ton of defensive talent. They need a lot of work, and three first-round draft picks

could certainly do that for the New England Patriots. So I do think that they, as, as everyone does have a price. Remember when in breaking bad, y'all seen breaking bad at this point, right? In breaking bad, when Walter White goes and he sees the apartment and he goes in and the guy says, well, this is just a, this is like a model. This isn't like an actual apartment. And Walter White's like, no, I'll take it. And then he pulls out his money. And then the guy's like, okay. And the apartment is yours. Well, I think that's what the Vikings might be looking to pull off, but new England has what a month to figure this out. They've got a month to

wait a month to potentially bluff. Uh, and then if the Vikings already are aware that they can use this to get to number four, then they're in good shape. But if they get locked out of number four, that is the scenario that I think a lot of you are pretty concerned about that. Of course, we're going to talk about that as well. Caleb says regarding mock drafts, there was an article that showed the top mock drafts and how accurate they were. And last year, the best person only had seven, right? So I did something like this very similar where I looked at just the quarterbacks and where the draft analysis world, the consensus using mock draft database, I took mock draft database. I look back at all the quarterbacks to 2017. And so how the draft analysts were ranking the quarterbacks, right? And what I found is it was all over the map. Sometimes they were dead on like Jordan love. They were dead on. They

had them as a late first round pick. They also thought that drew lock was going to be a top half of the first pick. They also thought Patrick Mahomes was going to be a late first round pick. I mean, sometimes they thought that Daniel Jones, maybe their analysis was better than the giants, but they thought Jones was going to be the 30th pick and the end of being the sixth pick. So we never truly know. And this is at least worth a discussion as well is all right. So what if, what if they don't actually think that JJ McCarthy will be taken forth overall? What if the Vikings actually think that JJ McCarthy is going to be there along with Pennix and Knicks at 11? What if they think that, I mean, that's not absurd, right? I mean,

go back to last year where Will Levis was projected all over the place by these people to be number what top three number four he was projected to go to the Indianapolis Colts by a lot of folks Malik Willis is the most obvious example but he wasn't even the only one that was wrongly projected as a high pick Desmond Ritter was too so they might make this trade with the idea that it's enough draft capital to get to three. But if they don't go to three, that they think that there will be a good quarterback prospect there at 11 that they like, and then they can also take a defensive player as well. Everything is kind of about the paths, right? There's different paths that they can take.

And some of them might lead you to giving up everything to go up to number three. Some of them might lead you to give up some to get to number four. And some of them might lead you to sit at number 11 and see what happens. Number 11 is most clearly the anxiety angle for Vikings fans. Can you imagine draft night? Of course, we'll be live on the YouTube channel on draft night for every minute of it, but can you imagine if that ends up being the case? So let me scroll back a little bit, comments here. R. Emmer says, Adam Schefter said that the Texans approached the Vikings about pick 23. Does that change the perspective of the move?

Not really, because I think the Texans would have known the type of position that the Vikings are in and said, we can help you if you want to move back and help us accumulate more draft capital. And they moved back quite a ways though, kind of a surprising amount for what they were given, which, you know, they turned out okay. The draft charts, as they always do favored the team trading, trading back and it favored the Texans a little bit, but I think that the Vikings didn't really have a great reason to do this unless it was part of a plan to try to trade up. But it doesn't guarantee that they'll be able to trade up. And of course, we need to discuss the possibility that they don't.

JP says, I think we keep assuming that Kweisi intended to use pick 23 to trade up, but I think it can be used multiple ways. That is true. I mean, look, if they end up with the 11th overall pick, there is a possibility that someone gets there that we didn't expect, including Drake May, including Jaden Daniels, including JJ McCarthy. Again, historically, we just don't know for sure. We don't know a hundred percent. I am not projecting that based on the caliber of prospect that these guys are, at least the top

three. But historically there is that possibility. And another thing we know is that the NFL has more intel than draft analysts do. And a lot of times there's the smoke signals, there's draft reporters being thrown off the scent. So they might think that they could get a quarterback at 11 and also get something else at 23 because they do need a lot still on defense. They filled the defensive tackle position with a lot of guys who have bounced around or guys who have just had potential, but never really worked out. They could really use a shutdown corner. They talked about their interest in LeJarrius Sneed, but there's a handful of corners that are good. And, you know, I will have to prepare for the possibility

that they do draft at 11 and 23. And if they do, then as long as one of those is a quarterback, I think we're still in good shape. And that's my point about in drafts where they've been this deep historically, knock, I mean, 2021 was a mess, but even then, if you're ranking the quarterbacks and what they've become 2021, Mac Jones still has the best season of anybody except for Trevor Lawrence. So even then the fifth best guy became maybe the second best. I don't know. The fields people are crazy. So they would all think that he was the better of the quarterbacks.

But the point just being that a lot of times, even go back to Jimmy Garoppolo as the fifth quarterback taken off the board. If your quarterback became Jimmy Garoppolo, he could get you to a Super Bowl. I mean, it's not ideal. It's not what you want. You want the third overall pick. You want O'Connell to have his guy, but I've been thinking more and more that if they stayed at 11

and ended up picking there, it's not a disaster. Like if we're ranking the possibilities, the hard, if we were ranking the possibilities, the hard one to do is giving up three firsts for JJ McCarthy versus just picking at 11 and taking Michael Penix. I mean, if you just think about this today, a lot of you have decided Penix is just like not a good prospect anymore. Daniel Jeremiah just had him as a first round pick. So I don't know in the top 15, if you were just watching football and no one told you what these draft analysts think, and it's not to degrade what they do.

It's only to say that they're not, they're not, I don't know, magicians. They're not fortune tellers. They can only give you their takes, their opinions, what they've heard, but they can't tell the future. So think about if you just watched football this year in college and you saw Pennix and McCarthy play, and I told you you were getting Pennix instead of McCarthy. I think you'd be like, all right, that guy's thrown for a gazillion yards. You saw his Texas game. It's only since the combine that you've been told a million times, and it might be correct

that JJ McCarthy is the much better prospect and it is less risky with the health and so forth. But even then we don't really know going forward because Teddy Bridgewater had no health issues and then had the knee thing happen. So I guess my point is that I'm trying to talk through the possibility that they might end up just staying at number 11 and number 23. But what I think is more realistic if I'm ranking also the likelihood is that new England is trying to play a bit of the game here. They have no pressure to do this right away. They can wait and wait and wait. They can pick a guy. They can trade to somebody else.

They can gather offers. They don't have to do this today. They can look at the Vikings and go, we want that additional first round pick, and you're going to give it to us or you're not getting your guy. So there's lots of different ways that this could play out. It could also be resolved by tomorrow. And that's what makes this so interesting. I was having dinner with our friend, Dane Mizutani, who comes on the show today. And Courtney Cronin was

in town and we were talking all night about these possibilities. So like, that's everything we're talking about as well. I've just, my friends want to know, my family wants to know what is going on, who are they going to draft? And I wish I had the answer for you today. And I don't think I'm going to have it for you today or tomorrow. KFT says, if they can't get one of the top four quarterbacks, trade away 23 for 2025 first round picks. Yeah, I mean, if they can't, we're assuming that there's a massive drop off between number four

and the next best guy. And I don't know if that is true. Uh, I, I, I honestly don't like, I don't know if Bo Nix or Michael Penix are as far behind as we think they are because just a month ago, they were neck and neck with JJ McCarthy, according to the experts. And then the combine happens and suddenly they're not, even though Michael Penix was great when it came to throwing at the combine. So I always kind of lean on the fact that we just don't know, even when we think we know when I'm trying to play out these different possibilities, I don't really need to trade the 23rd overall pick unless a team that

wants it, you think is going to draft at the top. So, you know, like what Chicago pulled off with Carolina was pretty great, but I don't know that that's going to be the case that you're going to be able to trade with someone who is likely to tank the next season. That seems implausible. I think I would rather have 11 and whatever quarterback and just pick 23 and get a defensive player. They really need some younger defensive players here to build around. Uh, E uh, Ellison, I don't know if that's how you pronounce it. Maybe, uh, says, I think that McCarthy is going to fall. The Vikings should stay put and call the Patriots bluff. I don't hate that idea. I honestly don't hate that idea. I really want to know, and this is what's so hard is it's so hard to get credible Intel. And I respect the difficult job that draft

analysts have to do when it comes to this, because they are trying to project and predict, and they're trying to get Intel and they're trying to figure out what's going to happen when teams are also trying to play games with them, trying to get stuff out there. Agents are trying to get stuff out there. Everybody's jockeying for position and we don't know what's actually real. Is it possible that the Vikings think that JJ McCarthy is not going to go fourth or fifth or sixth overall that the giants do seem like a good team for him, honestly. But if they don't think that if maybe the giants feel like they're a year away from drafting a quarterback, if they have Intel that McCarthy is not as high on NFL boards as everybody thinks they could stay at 11 to see if he gets there. If they are comfortable with taking Michael Pennix

or if they're comfortable with trading up to say number seven to get, make sure they're ahead of the Raiders, the Broncos. If they're comfortable with that to be able to take the fifth best quarterback, well, it sounds bad, but if you're taking him in the top 10 to get the fifth best guy, then he's a top 10 prospect and he has every bit the chances anybody else. So this, this, I'm glad that they didn't do this right away because it's really had me thinking through so many different moving parts to this. And the idea that the Patriots won't play ball then opens up. Are you okay with trading away 11, 23 and more to go up and get JJ McCarthy? And the other aspect of this too, is that it's been made really clear by the Arizonarizona cardinals they are open for

business i think their gm said something like we have a neon sign that is that he said he doesn't like neon signs that flash but there's a neon sign uh totally unnecessary detail there's a neon sign that says come trade with us so we know that they're willing to move out. And I think that if we're ranking all the thought processes of the Vikings, just here was most likely what they were thinking. Then second, third, fourth, most likely is if we get 23 from the Texans, then at worst we get four and at best we get three. And if that's the way they think, then I like it. Then I mean, that's trying to guarantee yourself a quarterback. Uh, that boy Ryan says, uh, trading up for McCarthy would be the worst move possible. So if I, if I told you that if, if I brought in

Kevin O'Connell, let's just say this is this is assuming they love mccarthy let's just say if i brought o'connell to you and he gave a presentation of why i love jj mccarthy would you still think that because if they trade up all this effort to get number four that means that kevin o'connell loves himself some jj m JJ McCarthy that means that he sat down with him that means that he worked him out that means that he went to his pro day and he came to the conclusion that this can be a franchise quarterback if O'Connell told you that right now would you still say it was the worst move possible probably not that doesn't mean he's right because the nfl is wrong sometimes and they're right sometimes but if that was their thinking if that was their logic that o'connell and josh mccown

were all the way in on this guy and they believed over the next five years they could compete for a super bowl with him at quarterback that he processes the game brilliantly, that he's got a great arm, that they could develop some touch. If they, if they gave you the whole thing, it would be very hard for me to say, nah, I know what I'm talking about. Cause I watched four games of his, right? So we're always overconfident. That's trust me. It's going to be a big theme of the show going up to the draft is we're always overconfident.'s trust me it's going to be a big theme of the show going up to uh the draft is we're always overconfident that's what makes the draft so great is that it leaves the door open for all sorts of different possibilities because you never exactly know but my point on McCarthy is even though I have some of the same I'm sure same skepticisms as you, if they're willing to do that for him, then okay, then off

we go and we'll find out. But at least their logic would be sound. Their logic would be the head coach loves him. The head coach believes he can be great because that's who you're going to need to put in all the work. It's not Kwesi Adafo Mensah who's putting in the work for JJ McCarthy it's Kevin O'Connell who's going to be doing that so uh if he's completely sold if he's totally bought in then I then I think the process is sound even if I'm gonna have some some questions and some skepticism uh let's see here Matthew says it only, if it only takes two ones that I'm okay with going to four, don't want to give up future picks. If it's only going to four, that is a great point.

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for 30 days. U.S. Cellular, built for us. Terms apply. Awards based on open signal independent data. Visit uscellular.com for details. Do you give up that extra first to go to four? But right now, so I was looking at draft capital. Right now, the Giants, if they want to get to four,

they have the best argument for it by the Jimmy Johnson chart, which if you're not familiar with it, it was a chart invented a long time ago of draft capital and how much it's worth. So the first pick is worth X. The second pick is worth Y. And it was named after Jimmy Johnson because he always made a bunch of trades at the top of the draft. Well, it turns out that this chart was used by the NFL for a very long time.

And so we can look at it to try to get this general idea. There are different charts that have been made since one by our friend, Brad Spielberger of PFF and Jason Fitzgerald of over the cap. And I'm sure Kwesi Adafo-Mensa has his own, but as far as if we're trying to predict what the league thinks we can use that chart, that's a long way of getting to the Giants can still do better than the Vikings on the Jimmy Johnson chart just by trading their first and second pick because number six on that chart is worth a lot more than number 11. So the Giants remain a huge threat to move up to number four. So if you're the Vikings and

they say, all right, Hey, look, the Giants are offering us a one and two twos, and that's worth more than your guys' 11 and 23. Will you throw in that extra first if it guarantees you a top four pick? I think that's very hard. You know what that comes down to? That comes down to how they feel

about Michael Penix and Bo Nix, I think, right? Because if they are in on Penix and Nix, well, then they can say, okay, well, go ahead then. Go ahead and make that deal with the Giants. But if they are out, if they view Penix and Nix as just not being great prospects, if they look at it different than me, I think they're good prospects,

but if they look at it different than me, then you need to say, okay, I think there're good prospects, but if they look at it different than me, then you need to say, okay, I think there's no other choice. And look, I don't love the idea of giving up that much. That's a lot. They need things in the future. You're going to have to have guys on rookie contracts eventually, but knowing the advantage they'll have financially that they've set up over years, it's not just for the Vikings, the financial advantage based on Kirk leaving. Kirk leaving is just one piece of the pie. It's also Delvin cook. It's also Adam Thielen. It's also Eric Kendricks. It's all these big contracts that all went out the door. It's not paying Delvin Tomlinson,

all those contracts that went out the door that will allow not paying Delvin Tomlinson, all those contracts that went out the door that will allow the Vikings to still build their team. Even despite paying Jefferson, even eventually paying Derrisa, they would still have enough to build their team. I mean, we're talking until probably 2026 until Jefferson becomes very expensive. So you've got maybe even 2027 for a huge cap cap hit probably 2026. So you've got time and you've got space and that's one expensive player, but who else do they have to pay? I mean, there's not that many people other than Darisaw that they have to pay big dollars to. So you can build the other parts through free agency or through trades where you trade for somebody else that another team can't afford. And to that end, I would have to say, if they told me, look,

there is a big gap between McCarthy and the next best guy, a huge gap in our evaluation. And that, and again, that means they've sat down with them. That means they put them through the workout. That means they have more information than us. Just looking at stats and just watching TV. They have way more information than us. And if the whole organization is completely bought in to JJ McCarthy, then it's worth that extra first. I mean, I try to think of, I try to think of like, you know, metaphors for this. So what is this like? Maybe it's like this. Let's say you're buying a house. Now you, you guys watch house hunters, right? Hilarious show. Uh, house hunters is kind of like this. There's always the couple.

And one person is like, look, our budget is this. And the other person says, well, we're flexible on our budget, right? So then they eventually go to look at the houses and shockingly, the more expensive house is worth more. And the person who didn't want to pay it usually caves because they know we're just going to have a better life if we pay a little bit more and we're not going to miss the money because we'll be happy with our house. I look at it that way with JJ McCarthy. If they decide that he is the guy that paying that extra first, well, you don't love that. It's worth it because that's the guy that is your foundation of your franchise. And if you don't love Knicks or Pennix, and then you're, you're ultimately taking the house that you didn't want, and you're not going to love it

in the same way. Uh, our Emmer says the JJ sweet spot is eight to 11. IMO. If we get him there, I'll be fine with it. Well, of course, I mean, if they could wait around. And so that's another question. Look, when we talk about smoke screens, the NFL absolutely loves its pre-draft smoke screens. It was almost like they were trying to convince each other to draft Malik Willis. There was so much stuff out there about how great Malik Willis was. And yet at the end of the day, none of them evaluated him as an actual first round draft pick. So is it possible that lots of draft analysts are being told, Hey man, this McCarthy, like he's top four, but in reality, they look at him as much more of a mid first round. That's possible. And if that, if that's the case though, there's still the

question of why did the Vikings make this trade? If they thought that they could just sit at 11? Maybe they've got eyes on a defensive tackle. I don't know. Purple Dave says, going into 2025 with JJ as your starter, all your young weapons, you have your first round pick at 25 and a boatload of cap space is huge W for Kweisi. It would be. It would be. You're right.

If they could get, and that's look, we, none of us know if McCarthy's going to work out every night in the comments. Half of you love McCarthy. Half of you don't love McCarthy. We'll see. We'll just have to see. But if they were able to, and this is why the last step is like sort of the hardest one to get to, right? We got to moving on from Kirk we got to signing defensive players now they're adding a little bit of depth with this guy or that guy on a daily basis Shaq Griffin I haven't given the signing a ton of credit but it's a guy it's depth that they didn't have before so you're working through all these different elements of the offseason and

all of them are checking boxes even going going and getting Aaron Jones. All right. Running game check, you know, Kirk leaving check. All right. Now the last step is get that quarterback that you really want. And then the cycle is complete. The circle of the rebuild or the competitive rebuild is complete. And then you go into 2025, having a real opportunity to build a team that could compete for the super bowl. And it's a weird example to use Brock Purdy as an example of this, because Brock Purdy was a super random late round draft pick. And yet at the same time, Brock Purdy was in only his second season and his team around him was absolutely stacked and his coach is really good. And they've got all these things that they can work with. And they were able to build a team

that could compete for the Superbowl. So I'm not saying the Vikings can get to where San Francisco is in one year, but if you spend enough money and look, the Eagles went out and got AJ Brown, you make the right trade, then you will have a chance to be that team. There's no guarantees, but at least you have a chance. Let's see.

Tristan. I'm sorry. I don't know what the rest of that says. McCarthy, a pick 11 is fine not using 11 and 23 and possibly more so yeah 11 and 23 are totally fine but um i think that 11 23 and next year's first is where it gets tricky 11 and 23 you didn't use that much to move up to get 23 so you're really talking about what like a next year's second and something else

that they added with that. I forget exactly all the numbers of the trade, but it's not that much. If you're getting a quarterback, that's really important. But if you're adding that extra first, I think that's the discussion. Charlie says, I like Van Ginkle, but he's not stopping me from drafting Dallas Turner at 11

and getting that guy in a rookie deal. That is the second most valuable position in football. So I look, if they could do this this way, if they could get Dallas Turner at 11 and Michael Penix at 23, I would be quite pleased with that. I would think that that was a really good result. Some of you will tell me Penix is bad. I don't know. I liked what I saw from him. And some draft analysts really like him and think he's a first round pick. That would be a good result in my mind to get a strong arm quarterback who could throw

the ball down the field with anticipation and throw power. I throw power. What is this Madden? But you know what I mean? Like power anticipation. You can push the ball down the field. He's got a big heart. I think like good leader, all that stuff. Like, okay. Ran a rather complex shotgun offense, which is what Kevin O'Connell's going to run in Minnesota. All right, okay, I can get on board with that. Dallas Turner and Michael Penix, that's a lot. That's a lot of value with two draft picks. But it all really comes down to how big the gap in their mind is between Penix and J.J. McCarthy.

If they think McCarthy is way better, then, well, you know, I would have to sign with them. I would have to side with them. If they were analyzing this and said, Pennix is not a first round pick. Like remember Hendon hooker, people were drafting Hendon hooker for the Vikings last year. He ended up as a third round pick.

If that's going to be the case for Pennix. Well, of course I'm not into that idea. Then I'm only into it if they evaluate him as a first round draft pick. Zachary says, how much does it matter that Penix is a lefty with Derrissaw playing on the left side? Doesn't this downplay the team's strengths? No, no, not in today's game. Maybe if it was like 2002 or 1996, but there are so many great rushers who come from both sides and it's not good to have pressure in your face either. It's just,

in my mind is just as valuable to have a quarterback like blindside versus right in front of your face. Either one, they can sack you and strip sack you regardless. Like Nick Bosa is on the right side that hasn't hurt San Francisco's defense. Uh, Aiden Hutchinson is often on the right side. Joey Bosa was on the right side. I mean, is it Max Crosby on the right side? The Neil Hunter, like there's a lot of scary dudes that come off, uh, both sides. And so we've seen, even though the blind side

has been on the left, right tackles and left tackles, they have a very similar value to me. I mean, you just want good linemen. They've got a lot of work to do. I'm sorry. Yes, I'm laughing at the house hunters here from Alexander. Budget is 400,000. The realtor shows them houses for 1.3 million. That does seem to happen that they go way, way above,

which may be what new England is doing, right? Maybe that's what new England is doing is that new England is trying to just pump up the value of this draft pick to try to get the Vikings to go crazy because they know they're desperate for a quarterback. And I would have to respect it. It's a very respectable way of going about it. So the Vikings might have to play this game of chicken with them. They might have to just wait and see if new England gets anxious on draft day or as we get closer, but we really don't know when this is going to be pulled off. I mean, we, there's been time for, uh, you know, the new England to call around and see what interests other people have. There's another part of it too, that, um, you know, new England might want to see the pro days. That might be what they do.

Zach says, are we getting Atlanta's number eight for tampering? No. If I'm wrong, I'll take that L. But no, you're not getting Atlanta's first round pick for tampering. Absolutely not. I mean, what did Arizona do? Some sort of mid-round pick swap with Philadelphia for tampering? And if anything, they would just take it away from Atlanta.

But, I mean, it could be a pick swap, but it'd be like third-round picks. It's not going to be – they're not going to give the Vikings their first-round pick. Unless this was insane, incredibly egregious, I don't think we hear a whole lot about this tampering thing again. Maybe a pick swap, maybe something taken away from Atlanta, but it wasn't, at least the way it seems, it wasn't anywhere close to, what was it, Stephen Ross taking Tom Brady on the boat to convince him to be a dolphin.

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That is surf shark dot deals slash purple insider. Aaron says, I like panics a lot. Besides his arm, his superpower is from the neck up. He processes as good as anyone in this class. I like a lot about Michael Penix. And when you watch that offense, he was doing a lot. And maybe it was smoke screeny from Kweisi Adafo-Mento when he was asked about older players

that's at the quarterback position that, like he said, it was more of them playing at like a minor league type of level. Like they had a minor league year or something that normally quarterbacks wouldn't get another year to develop. It's not that you can't develop in college. And I never had a problem with the point about them being a little older. Joe Burrow blew that out of the water for me. I thought the same way, like, well, you know, what's their ceiling going to be? And can they ever get better? But then Joe Burrow came in and was really good.

Took another step pretty quick and like, okay, I'm not worried about it then. Do I think that Michael Penix is probably the closest to a starter today? Yeah, I do because he's had that experience and the arm talent and the way he operated that thing. The other part of it too, is Michael Penix has been through a lot. He has been through a lot. Those injuries scare everybody. They scare me, but there's also a lot of injuries in the NFL. Like this, sorry sorry this made me laugh uh Purple Purgatory weak knees just like Joe Namath well if Joe Namath had today's science what would we say about Joe Namath the guy would add a much better career I mean is it like didn't Kirk Cousins

you guys are really worried about Michael Penix, who, according to all the reports, passed his physicals at the combine. But you're worried about Michael Penix. A football team just gave Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles at 36 years old, a hundred million dollars guaranteed. I think there's a lot of belief in science. I mean, look, look how many times Aaron Rodgers was injured along the way. Look how many times, I mean, it happens. There's a lot of quarterbacks who've been banged up through their careers. How about Drew Brees? His shoulder was supposed to end his career and then he ends up having a long career. It's, I'm not saying it's not an issue, but I think if we say it's a guarantee that it's going to ruin his career, well, we're kind of ignoring a lot of, uh,

a lot of different guys. Yes. Very, very funny. Um, Alexander about the, uh, the big heart. Uh, I know you're a doctor and, uh, you probably understand more about hearts, but I don't mean enlarged heart. I mean, uh, metaphorically, uh, let's see. Preston asks, which of the four quarterbacks played the toughest competition. Well, personally, I think that, uh, Michael Penix did because when is Washington ever done anything? I mean, Washington, the PAC 12 was pretty tough. They beat Oregon and, uh, they beat Oregon state and like a monsoon. That was crazy. No one goes into Corvallis. We know that all college football people know that going into Corvallis is tough.

He was bad that game, but it was a rainstorm and he battled. And that was what I liked about him that even in his best game, he found a way. There's a lot of things I like about Penix and, uh, you know, I just, I just think that, um, you know, if it comes to number 11 and number 23 and they came away and they didn't make this big trade up and they came away with Michael Penix and Dallas Turner or Jared verse that, I mean, that would be a pretty good outcome for them. I, at first, I will be honest with you. At first, my reaction was, and this is probably even as soon as yesterday, I've thought about it more at first. My reaction was it's a disaster. Like if they don't get one of the top four, but that hinges on the idea that they don't like the other guys. And I don't know if they don't like the other guys. Uh, Ron says, Casey did say that they're not locked into just quarterback

could see them grabbing someone like Byron Murphy from Texas at 11. Um, I mean, look, if they were to come away with Byron Murphy, this is the same sort of thing at number 11 and then still pick their quarterback at number 23. I really like this defensive tackles who can make a difference. And, uh, Brad Spielberger for PFF had something the other day where he, he showed that all the highest paid defensive tackles, almost all of them were first round draft picks. Most of the time, that's a very physical position. Do you have quickness? Do you have the strength to be able to just annihilate offensive guards? We know it from Kenny Clark. I don't remember where he was picked, but that's the type of guy with the size and the strength that you see to just be able to blow away your competition. There's not too many guys

that have that size, strength, speed, quickness. So if they were able to do that at number 11 and still get a quarterback that's comparable to the guys at the top, then I think that's a very good outcome, but it really depends on their evaluation because if they think Penix is way worse than JJ McCarthy as a prospect, then that's pretty concerning. If they have to pick a defensive tackle at number 11 and risk the possibility. That's the other thing about that, that I should bring up is that you risk the possibility of someone else taking your guy. If Penix is being evaluated as a first round quarterback, well then the Raiders,

the Broncos, they could all do it. And that's pretty scary. Sue says, what if they have a chance at JJ 11, but they trade down with the Saints or Broncos take their first round pick and second this year and next year's first, and then take Pennix while also adding more defense. Well, I don't know if it's quite worth that much to move down one spot, but they would have to give up something to be able to trade up. I think if, I mean,

if the Broncos, for example, wanted to move up, they're probably not really a candidate to do it with the Vikings because they'll think the Vikings want a quarterback. They'll try to go over the Vikings, but if they were trading back with somebody like the saints, the saints could be moving up to take something else because they've really locked themselves into Derek Carr. And I wish them the best with that, by the way, congratulations on

your irrelevance for the next few years, but they've locked themselves in Derek Carr, which means they could be looking for a defensive player to move up. And if the Vikings did move down and still got a quarterback and a defensive tackle or a corner, then that's a pretty good scenario for them. And that's why, so here's a question for you guys. We've sort of run ourselves in circles about all the different scenarios, which we'll go over many times as we go forward. But tonight we're working off of the idea. They can't get to three,

which makes it so much more jumbled and so much harder to decide exactly what you want. Right. But so I guess I was thinking about as far as sitting at 11 and 23, are you happy with that? If that were to happen, are, are you happy with 11 and 23? If you come away with a quarterback and a defensive tackle versus trading up is really what this kind of comes down to trading up for JJ McCarthy and how big that gap is. And what will we grade

the off season for the Vikings? If that were to happen, if they were able to stay at 11 and 23, get Michael Penix and Byron Murphy or whoever, I mean, Dallas Turner, you can throw out your favorite guy. I think it's very hard to grade. I really do because we think that they want McCarthy and because we think we want McCarthy, it seems like they're settling. But what if we find out that that wasn't ever the thing? So that that's right now trying to figure out how to grade if they were to stay at 11 and 23, get a quarterback and a defensive player, I think I would still be into it, but here's a struggle. I'll tell you guys about for me is trying to figure out any idea that I don't like, because you guys throw out a ton of them and you give your opinions and I get easily talked into these because at first I'm like, no, if they don't

get four, now I'm upset. Now I'm unhappy. Now I'm not going to praise their, you know, crazy daffle Mensah, you know, but then I'm thinking, well, wait a minute. We don't really know what the gap in their mind is between McCarthy and Pennix and Knicks. So maybe I shouldn't be displeased with what they're doing. Maybe I shouldn't criticize or call them crazy or say that they failed or something like that. If they come away with a quarterback in the first round, I will have trouble giving it anything other than a B plus.

If they have to give up the farm to get McCarthy, it's probably a B plus because that's a lot. If they end up with 23 is where they pick a quarterback, it's probably a B plus. Cause that's a lot. If they end up with 23 is where they pick a quarterback. It's probably a B plus for me because it just is smart to get your quarterback in the first round based on all the things that have happened. So James says, uh, do you really think may is worse than JJ Ryan leaf ring any bells, Ryan leaf what a relevant reference i mean ryan leaf is a great example of how you just don't really know you just don't really know because ryan leaf was a great prospect and so is jamarcus russell but there are other guys who weren't great prospects and turned out to be great you just don't know but uh But I think that it's not really adding much

to the conversation if you just declare that someone coming out will be a historical bust. And if you want, there are a lot more recent historical busts that you can work with. There is no way in hell that you remember what Ryan Leaf was like as a prospect. No way. Absolutely no way.

You're just throwing out a name of a failed prospect to degrade one of the quarterbacks you don't like rather than contributing to the conversation. We can do better than that. This is 2024. We can do better because we all have lots of information. That's why talking about Christian Ponder is banned on the show. There's just no reason to talk about Christian Ponder. It was 10 years ago. It didn't work out. Draft somebody else. Sometimes it happens.

There's no reason to compare anybody to Ryan Leaf. What tendencies or traits does anybody have that compare to why Ryan Leaf failed? Ryan Leaf failed for one reason, because he could not handle the pressure. And he will say that. Ryan Leaf is. Ryan Leaf failed for one reason, because he could not handle the pressure. And he will say that. Ryan Leaf is on TV. He will tell you that,

that he was in over his head at first and he was overwhelmed and he snapped and he wasn't mentally strong enough to handle it and didn't put in the work enough to handle it. And that's why he failed. Do you know which guy that's going to be this year? Because I don't. I have no idea which one of these guys is not going to do that. Plus here's another thing too. We've changed a lot as a society since Ryan leaf, we have individual quarterback coaches

that are working year round with these players. There are so many more things in place. Every team I would assume has mental health professionals on their payroll that work with players, that players understand their earning potential and value and what it's worth to put in the work to be able to do it. I mean, immaturity will always exist, but there are so many more guardrails for quarterbacks than there ever were when Ryan leaf was coming out. And if you go back and look, it's so interesting. And I guess I'm kind of glad you brought this up because it's so much different than it used to be back in the day, go back and look at the drafted quarterbacks, how many of them fail, how many of them never became anything? The Jim Druckenmillers and so forth. It's a very high percentage back in the day. And I think some people who came from that

era of watching football saw so many top quarterbacks go bust that they just have that like ingrained that quarterback quarterbacks, top of the draft, very risky. They go bust. Of course, John Elway was at the top of the draft very risky they go bust of course john elway was at the top of the draft but you get my point and what we saw was a lot of the good quarterbacks from that era the 90s and the early 2000s were development guys they were guys who were a backup somewhere else worked their way up the chain and then eventually got their position i brought up matt uh matt hasselbeck it's kind of like that, where he's a backup, had to work his way through it, finally got his chance.

And I think that's because the NFL was just much harder to make it as quarterback. They were more violent than they're allowed to be now. There's so many fewer things in place to help quarterbacks. I mean, that goes for schematics. That goes for analyticsematics that goes for analytics that goes for health professionals that goes for mental health that goes for quarterback coaches. I mean, it used to be said that you couldn't fix somebody's throwing motion.

And then Josh Allen came along and said, yeah, you can. And, uh, that, you know, we just have to change what we think about the possibilities for success in the NFL. There used to be a much wider range. So think of it this way, that the 20th quarterback and the 10th quarterback or fifth quarterback in 1990 were probably way, way apart. Now, any quarterback, not any, many quarterbacks can be given their situation, the 20th or the fifth on a given year. And I think we've seen that from someone like Jalen Hertz. So there's your kind of historical connection. I'm glad that you brought it up.

Charlie says, I truly think that they'll trade up to number five and still get may. If they don't, i think they'll be fine with turner and darius robinson on one side of the defense for the next 10 years the only situation that is a failure is not getting a quarterback i just cannot bring myself to say it's okay to get two defensive players not under these, not with the advantage that they have for next season when it comes to the salary cap, not with the way that they have designed this whole thing to let cousins go. There's just no way that we can say that it would be okay for the Vikings not to draft quarterback here.

That is the one thing that, and I agree, is the faithful says exactly that. Is it possible they don't even draft a quarterback in round one? That would seem like a complete failure to me. Yes, that is the one scenario where on draft night I would go off. That is the one thing where I would say this is, you guys haven't gotten many rants lately, right? Somebody was asking the other night for a, for a rant. I don't have one to

give you right now, but I sure do for draft night. If they don't come away with a quarterback, that would to me be a complete failure. And I would have to say, I just can't trust what they're going to do here because I spent yesterday watching and writing about Sam Darnold. And what I came away with was Sam Darnold could play for a year and would be a lot of fun. It would be very entertaining, but that is not ever going to be a franchise quarterback. I don't think at least that was my takeaway. There's too much crazy stuff, too many crazy decisions that he makes too many mistakes that he's not going to be a franchise quarterback. So if you went into next year with no future answer on the

roster and just Sam Darnold, Jaron Hall, and Nick Mullins, that's not a great situation. That's not a situation where I think you can compete with Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff. Zach says, is there a chance they already have a trade-up deal finalized but want to wait until draft day to announce? Is there a chance? I mean, there's a chance, yeah, but I think that they would just do it, right? Because if you're New England and you move back to 11, I think you want as much time as possible to move back up if you want to.

I mean, if they had the deal done, I think that it would be out there already. Jared's snarking about Joe Namath. You definitely don't want to draft the next Joe Namath. Surely don't. Yeah, I know what you mean. I just meant about the knees, but you're right. Joe Namath is only in the Hall of Fame and the start to his career at the time was unbelievable and so forth and won a Superbowl. So look, if they drafted a guy with bad knees who only lasted a few years, but brought you a Superbowl

then, uh, that's good with me. Uh, James says could get a good receiver at 11 and Penix at 23. So, uh, James, uh, you are, I mean, look, I am the biggest fan of receivers that has ever lived. I mean, I, every single draft since I've been covering the team, I've been saying, get a receiver, get a receiver. And then when they did it last year, I was like, they actually did it. They actually went and got a receiver and then it worked. So that's good. Uh, but I don't think this would be the year to spend the 11th overall pick on a receiver as much as you're always trying to create three deep, because this is a very, very deep draft with receivers. I think you can wait around and get one in the later rounds

rather than using that draft pick, which I would go with. If it's not a quarterback, I would go with the defensive tackle first. If that's the guy that's on the board or like the edge rusher, but either way, a defensive line is where I would go with that. Randy says, man, I think you're talking yourself into Pennix. I look, I am. I do. I do not consider myself a scout. I have never, that's not me. Never consider myself some sort of scout because I spend so much time covering the Vikings and covering NFL players and writing about them and covering every move and everything else that I don't have enough mental space or time to write scouting reports. I watch the guys in draft season, which I've been doing. I watch

draft analysts. I watch smart people. I bring smart people on the show and I try to form my opinions through a combination of those things. But did I chart every single throw that every guy's made? Like, no, I, and I was able to watch every live game of Pennix and McCarthy and everything else. No, of course not. I'm going back through them now trying to play catch up, but not at the detail. And I also don't know the process of being a scout. I mean, I've never sat down with a scout and had them take me through. Here's what you look like with footwork and here's whatever else. So what I have always done for quarterbacks is there's a couple of ways I've done it and it's worked pretty well, which is number one, what is

their cheat code? What is their best tool? What is that they can use on third down and long to beat the other team? Jalen Hurts, it was his legs. So I liked him. Lamar Jackson, legs, liked him. Did not love Josh Allen, but I should have because of the arm and the size.

Like there's the cheat code, right? And with Drake May, I can really see the cheat code. The arm talent, the playmaking, there's the cheat code, right? And with Drake May, I can really see the cheat code. The arm talent, the playmaking, that's a cheat code. I can see the Pennix cheat code. The Pennix cheat code is the arm strength and the fact that he doesn't take sacks. And that tends to carry over to the NFL. That's the cheat code.

That's why he reminds me of Drew Bledsoe. That's why he reminds me of Jared Goff in some ways, is that if you don't take sacks and you get rid of the football and you throw it really hard, you've got a chance. So I I've been talked into Pennix for a long time. I just, I like a lot of things about him. I might be totally off though. I, he might be a third round pick, but I think he's good and I like him and I don't know his medical reports. So, uh, Penix is, uh, ER Emmer says Penix is a Southpaw Sam Bradford. So I think of him as much more of like a Drew Bledsoe. Oh, that's a throwback and, and golf, because it's not always a beautiful ball. And with Sam Bradford, it was Bradford had the injuries. Of course, that's, you know, what you're talking about.

I think in part is those injuries eventually caught up to Bradford. Although, you know, when we talk about these injuries for, for Pennix, think about what age it was until Sam Bradford started to come apart with the knees. What was it? He was like over 30, right? So if Penix came in at 24 and gave you like seven years before he had these problems, I mean, I know Bradford had them along the way in the NFL. Penix has already had them, but if he gave you, if he gave you a rookie quarterback contract and was really good, then, is a point, though. Dwayne says, the Vikings have the worst luck with knees.

Why would we wish for a guy with knee problems? I get it. I don't think that past results predict future endeavors, but I get what you're talking about. Alex says, do we like Newton or Murphy more defensive tackle? I like Murphy more, size, size power a little bit more, but Newton Newton's got the tape man. And I have, you know, I have taken some time with the defensive tackles.

He just wins all the time. And that's where we got into was a Kalijah can't see last year. Well, he's a little undersized and so forth. And then he was pretty good aaron donald just retired that was him um the answer i think to newton or murphy is yes but i i give a slight edge to murphy uh i am a i am a very strange decision for your name says i just finished uh your book terrific stuff hopefully Hopefully Neil makes the hall of fame someday. Yeah. Thank you. Wow. I really appreciate that. Football is a numbers game. It's over my left shoulder. You're talking about Neil Hornsby, the founder of PFF.

If you haven't checked it out, go find it, give it a look. And I really appreciate you reading it. Thank you so much for doing that. It has been really, really fun to see people's reaction and how much they have learned over the time reading the book about PFF. Deplorable Neanderthal. Talk about the names. You guys are bringing some names out here. If you hate the idea of Pennix, watch the semifinal against Texas again, reset the palette. So that's a good point.

Deplorable Neanderthal.