Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Alec Lewis answers: How will final four games shape the Vikings' decisions?

Episode Date: December 11, 2025

Matthew Coller is joined live by Alec Lewis of The Athletic to talk about how the Vikings will have to evaluate JJ McCarthy based on the final four games of the season. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider here inside TCO Performance Center. The show is always presented by our friends of Fandul, Matthew Collar here, along with Alec Lewis of The Athletic and The Alec Lewis Show. And it's been an interesting couple of days here, Alec, as really the core question of the 2025 Minnesota Vikings is what happened? How did you end up as a five and eight football team? And I think that we all know that it comes back to the performance of the quarterback, where if you have the 32nd out of 32 quarterback rating in the league, you will probably end up at actually usually worse than 5 and 8,

where the Vikings are right now. But a debate has sprung up on the internet about pure progression systems and whether the Vikings set up J.J. McCarthy for success with, the right kind of system. It has been my opinion that what really happened here this season, Alec, was that J.J. McCarthy simply was not ready to lead a team with expectations this high, as is the case for many young quarterbacks in the NFL who are struggling this year.

And the organization miscalculated that I don't believe that they have gone wrong in terms of how they have created a system, coached him, tried to get him to improve fundamentals and things like that. But you might have a different opinion. So how have you felt amidst the conversation about scheme and what they have put on J.J. McCarthy's plates to this point. Yeah, first, thanks for having me. Hi, Matthew.

Good to be here in the beautiful TCO Performance Center. Pure progression, this is the pure progression winner of 2025. That's how I'm going to remember it. We got Kurt Warner tweeting JTO Sullivan, Brian Hoyt. Chase Daniel, any quarterback who has really has a social media account has weighed in on a conversation that began Tuesday in this very building with offensive coordinator West Phyllis about how they teach quarterbacks. I'm not going to get into the minutia of quarterflat hook dropper inverted too because it gets real complicated. But I am with you completely in that if you think that because the Vikings are teaching a pure progression system, that J.J. McCarthy has struggled in the year 2025.

That would be very faulty, in my opinion. And I am with you as well. And that just, I mean, look, it's easy to forget. This guy transitioned from Michigan, where he didn't throw a ton of Michigan, and that's not a dig. That's just the reality. And then he looked pretty good last year in training camp leading up to the first preseason game.

Then the meniscus injury happened. He didn't play for a whole season. Didn't have any on-field time to develop and throw the football. Then he comes back this summer. It didn't look phenomenal. Didn't play a game speed. Offensive line hasn't been healthy. A lot of reasons for the struggles, but it has been until Sunday it wasn't a

mid-struggle. And so for me, more than anything else, it's just a guy who has not had the requisite on-field time, a guy who had questions from the outset about his touch, about his ability to layer the football, about his calmness in the pocket. And all of those questions have come to fruition through the time that he's played thus far. this season. But now I think, you know, it's also been, and not to go on a crazy tangent, I think the conversation about simplifying some of that stuff has been a little. Some of the narrative has been like, oh, Sunday, they finally dumb down the system against

the commanders. No, they've been running screens. They've been throwing mostly outbreakers for weeks now. They haven't used the middle of the field remotely close to the level and the percentage that they used it in past years. I just felt like the different Sunday was A, the defense was pretty lax, and B, J.J. McCarthy was accurate with the football consistently for really the first time this season. It was great to see, and I hope it continues, and it'd be fun to see it continue. But, like, that's really what I – that's really my take on that. Like, I don't feel like Kevin O'Connell all of a sudden was like, let's just change all of our passing concept. They've really been adapting and trying to make this work for weeks now, and it was the first Sunday where it really showed itself.

Right. They've been a run-first offense at very least since Chicago. And I think if you look at run-pass ratios like people did coming out of the game against Baltimore, the issue with that is that they fumbled the kickoff, Baltimore scored, and then you're playing from down two scores. And the same thing happened in Green Bay. So run-pass ratio at the end of the game does not really tell the story of what they were trying to do, which is in the first half of Green Bay, they were running a very much run-first type of offense

and then had to transition to coming from behind and playing and drop back passing. And that's when Micah Parsons and Roshan Gary, et cetera, destroyed them in that game. And even in Chicago, they actually did find a way to keep it close, kind of grinded a lot there in that game and then lost on a kick return that turned into a game-winning field goal. I think the reference to simplification, sometimes the football men in their way of putting things is not always how, we do it in society, where when they say that, I think West Phillips explained last week that they were talking about, like, maybe just running some of the same concepts from similar formations and maybe not having, there were plays where they had no motion, which I can't remember ever seeing, but maybe cutting down some of the pre-snap stuff, there was not as many

times where you saw him putting his hands on his head and saying, can, can, or check, check. Also, you don't have to do a whole lot of that when you're ahead for the entire game. Exactly. When you're running successfully the entire game, and when the other team has basically no chance of scoring with the way they're playing offensive. So I look this up real quick. I'll let you keep going. But the three games where they've played the most offensive snaps with the lead, Commander's game, Bengals game, Lions game. Like that has really – I think over the last – over the next four games, if you're watching at home and it's like, how's this going?

If the Vikings have a lead early in the game, which affects the script of the game, I'd be sitting on my couch feeling comfortable. Like, that's, that, for me, that is so much a part of this. They were up to scores. They could stick with running the football. They weren't a drop-back game. Defensively, they could crank up the pressure and create turnovers. Like, that is the world they wanted to live. They've had to live.

And they haven't been able to live except for the games I just mentioned, really. I also think something that we just do as human beings is we always look for other explanations to things that are pretty obvious. Like, I think that it is pretty obvious what happened in the 2025 season. but that is a very easy explanation. It might also be a hard one to accept because when you think about the psychology of this, if someone tells you, well, the reality is your quarterback just wasn't ready and there's still a possibility that it might just not work with him with the way he throws the football

and so forth, then that feels very hopeless. That feels very empty. It doesn't feel like you can get your pound of flesh from whoever is here to be blamed for this. whereas if the coach completely botched the system, then it opens up hope for the player to not have been at fault. And there are enough examples throughout NFL history where a guy got into the right system and had success

or the right environment and had success that you could say, well, maybe it is the coach. And, you know, look, we can't completely write it off that maybe it was the wrong system. Maybe it was too complicated. Maybe there were too many cans and checks and formations. We also have to remember

that he's not a first year quarterback. That's the thing. The second year quarterback. He should know that stuff. I also, when I look at the data, I can't help but think it's, I don't feel like it's even where he's thrown the football. It's how he's thrown the football.

It's not that you read a certain thing across the middle of the field. It's that you threw it late or over someone or too hard and it flew on you. And the other team has picked it off because this is a game of extreme persistence. decision. But you might also look at that from a lens and go, well, if he has been making a lot of decent decisions and inaccurate throws, couldn't he improve the accuracy? Couldn't he improve

the timing with more time on task and make this work? And I think that that's really the big question of the final four games is, can you show enough progress to make an argument at the end as we walk out of US Bank Stadium in week 18 that, yeah, he actually, he got it. He's just needed more experience. Yeah, and I definitely feel like that, I mean, that's, as I show up to whatever you call the Jerry World Stadium, AT&T Stadium on Sunday night, like, the thing that I'm just looking for is, can he be accurate consistently? Like, it just starts there for me, and it doesn't in there completely, but like, if you

can't throw the football on target on an open speedout 12 yards to the left sideline, it's not going to be pot. Like, the thing that I've thought is kind of interesting over the last, like, four weeks is if I ask the listener, you guys watching or you, like, okay, let's say you're Kevin O'Connell and you're designing the offense, what can I do that he's going to be able to do before Sunday? And you're thinking, well, like, go balls. He hasn't been crazy accurate with that and it doesn't feel great. Over the middle kind of makes it, like, there's some paralysis with trying to process the field. Out routes, well, he's missing those. screens he's kind of throwing them hot so like if i'm kevin o'connell like what do i do and now the hope

i think should be has to be will be that if you can be accurate on some of that stuff can we start to reintroduce some of the concepts and some of the areas of the field that we've kind of shaved off and can he feel more comfortable and more confident trying to target those areas over the course these last four games the hard part within the evaluation of these last four is you're playing to Cowboys' defense that even with Quinn and Williams, on the back end, they are a disaster. The Lions defense, I believe the last few weeks, they've been like second to last, an EPA for play as a passing defense. And then the Packers will see where they are.

What are they playing for, you know, et cetera. The Giants defense isn't great. So that's the complex part of the evaluation is the competition aspect of these last four games. I'm totally okay, though. if you just go out and perform and are accurate and look comfortable, like that's enough for me to at least have more of a conversation about the types of opportunities and players you're targeting this offseason and where JJ's opportunity lives within that.

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Featured products include compound drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality. Prescription required. See website for full detail. restrictions, and important safety information. I will say for Dallas's defense, their numbers are horrendous. They have been getting healthier and I think overall better since Quinn and Williams, but they played a Thursday game with almost no prep against Patrick Mahomes. And then they played against Jared Goff in Detroit. Those are very difficult places to play.

So we can't just say, well, hey, these are their numbers over the last few weeks. They're not actually any good. Those are some pretty good quarterbacks under tough circumstances. is I expect a better showing from Dallas than Washington by like a lot. That's a, that is no bar at all. It was just Donatelish. I mean, that's like without Daniel and Zadari Smith on the front. It was just stagnant.

We don't really trust them. We don't disguise. We're playing off coverage. Like it was the run game is run defense is formidable. The linebackers can't really move. I mean, any aspect of the defense, every layer of it, it was, it made it quite easy to watch. Their best players are older than Philip Rivers, and their younger players are practice squad guys that have moved up because, yeah, there were a lot of injuries. So Dallas is not quite that.

They're actually getting more healthy. They've acquired a couple of good players. They have a guy who's really murdered the Vikings in the past and Kenny Clark. So I think there's something to be said for that. Probably not so much the Giants game. And if those last two games are meaningful, then I think we could say this is a pretty good sample size. And when you think about how funny this is, just how little football JJ's played, the final five games will be almost as much as the first six. I know that sounds obvious, but like, think about that.

To get to the first six, it took almost 600 days. And now to play five games, if he can get through those five games and perform at a fairly high level, it could give them some confidence that you can go into next year and build off this. But I want to make one more point. Because every podcast where I talk about this, the comment section is like, why are you defending O'Connell? Is it because you wish you were best friends with O'Connell? Or maybe you're afraid of O'Connell. That comes up a lot. And it's not really.

It's just a different criticism than you want, I think. Because my criticism of O'Connell was, so I believe, based on Darnel, based on Kirk, even Nick Mullins, this scheme works to get wide receivers open. I believe in that. I've seen that. We see that on tape every single week. We know that to be true. But what I think that the mistake was was overestimating what the scheme can do for a young quarterback, not, like, think about it this way. You plan a trip and you're like, oh, we're going to go to Hawaii.

But you never think about that there could be flight delays. You never think about that there could be a storm in Hawaii or something. And you have to, like, you just, when you plan that, you don't factor for it. And I think when they planned this. they thought, well, we'll give them a great center. We'll give them great wide receivers. But what they didn't maybe factor enough for was Justin Jefferson could get hurt and miss all of training camp

and you don't get any reps with them. Ryan Kelly is not going to be there for you every single game. Like in ideal circumstances, yes, all that works. Adam Thielen would show up and, well, that wasn't 2018, Adam Thielen, right? And it just, like, I think that they didn't maybe enough think about the factors that could affect a quarterback beyond, what you can control with your system and just the simple fact that quarterbacks in the year 2025 they get is it nine OTA practices a handful of full padded all miraculous joint practice that

we all obsessed over it ain't 1993 where there's two a days and there's 50 passes in preseason there's just not a lot of time to get that all locked down and then when you go out there you have to get it down to the most minute detail that you possibly can. I think they just didn't factor that properly. I think that's the right criticism. Yeah, I mean, I've thought a lot about this quote that I talked to Nick Mullen's late last year, and I was talking to him about Sam and the season he was having. You miss you, Nick.

And one thing Nick said was like, what he's doing looks easy, but like what he is doing is so not easy. And I think like that, whether it's Kirk, whether it's Sam, whether it's even Nick Mullins in some of those spots, like what they were able to do throwing the football is just, even like in this system in particular, it like it just requires a certain level. And so, yeah, I think for sure there was an overestimating that J.J. McCarthy in many ways would like pick up from where he left off right before the injury and look how we did in that. first preseason game. Like maybe the calculus should have weighed in. Like maybe it's going to take him half a year of playing to get back to that level. I mean, the interesting thing that you said was there's five games left. It's almost as much as he's played in the first part. Like this is where, can you imagine if JJ played the way he did against Washington in week

five or whatever or week six? And so then you're at week seven, you're staring down the entire back of the season. There's so much runway at that point. point to make a much more calculated evaluation. And that's part of the reason those injuries were so unfair. They've been so unfortunate. But yeah, I think, I mean, look, the calculus with JJ over the, you know, with this season, into this season, it's so fascinating to look back on. We could rehash it a million times.

You've rehashed it a million times. Daniel Jones, nobody expected him to look the way he looked before he got hurt. Sam Darnold, after the last two games, like, it was really difficult to imagine that, you know, just the idea that Sam comes back, then any interception he throws, people would have clamored for J.J. McCarthy, understandably, and then the Aaron Roger, I mean, we could rehash all of that. But I do, I do definitely feel like the one thing I will say going back to that time is a lot of conversation with people who sit two floors above us who were like, are. are we really sure this can and so there was a lot of questioning at that time and that's where the idea to forge ahead i mean that's where the why the criticism exists and is relevant and is part of it just how it is so i i want to ask you about because there's like these other 52 guys who have jerseys that we could talk about so i do want to talk about like who this last four

game section is important for in just the second but you know when you talk about uh the front office and I think the implications of a year like this now if they win all four games and they go nine and eight this will feel like that lion season that started out one and six and it'll feel a lot different but let's just you know let's just assume that it's more of a two and two type of thing or one and three type of thing let's just just assume that for the sake of conversation I have been of the opinion that they created this thing for a two year window they might argue three, but I would say looking at the players, their primes, the contracts. It's really about two with J.J. McCarthy to have all of this before you have to start resetting.

I think that they should get that. I think they deserve to get that, like the coach, the general manager, the front office. Now I'm not saying you don't make any changes to your coaching staff that probably will happen. But that's how I have felt about it. Because if you sold ownership on a certain plan, you should see that plan through unless you go one in 16 or whatever. Or if they had lost against Washington and you just lose all the rest of the games and then it's one of the worst calamities in a Viking season history. Okay, well, then that's all off the table. But if you're talking about two out of the next four and you finish seven and ten, I don't think

that it makes a lot of sense to panic over one season where a lot of stuff went wrong early on and then just start throwing people into the volcano, as Jeremiah Searle likes to say, how do you feel that they should and will approach what has happened here in 2025? Yeah, but it's hard, you know how I'm going to go, where I'm going to go. It's hard without seeing the final four in how they feel and how they look. I mean, Christmas at home, like if you get obliterated at home against the lions and then the Packers come into your building and expose. you as well, and that leaves you with a certain taste in your mouth. But even as I say that,

like, that is not, that's like short-term oriented thinking. And I am so, I've always been this way, like the more you think long-term and vision and plans, the one thing I will say about this path that they've gone down, and you know this, and the fans listening to this and watching it know this. The idea was really, like, we're tired of being just good, and we want to be great and when you make that leap you are inviting a vast level of variance in what you're trying to do and so like yes you're paid to be right like there's no question about that but the odds would tell you that there is a likelihood that that you're not going to be right and so there is a you ask like what should they do what will they do I mean as far as Kevin O'Connell

Like, I don't think that's a question that really needs to be asked, should be asked. As far as Quasi Dofo Mensa, I mean, look, I think Quasi really has championed a lot of that thought of wanting to be really great. And, like, the part of this offseason that is interesting to reflect on is, like, in the moment, going back to the spring, what at the time, let's just say your ownership of the decisions they made and the process behind of those decisions, behind those decisions, what could you have poked holes in at the time? Ryan Kelly probably, the cornerback situation was a question mark. And then again, like the JJ readiness, that was a very clear, you know, question that a lot of people had. But again, you're fighting that if you have Daniel Jones or you have St. Donald, the noise is so loud. So you're fighting a lot of that.

So I would say with Quasi, like that's, it's going to be how it ends is probably, this season's going to be an interesting conversation. And then I think regardless, and this is offense-related, this is decision-making-related, it really probably would be a great time for certain new ideas, new thoughts, new perspectives, different experiences. Like, I still think as much as the run game was really good Sunday, is the run game as creative as it can be? I think that's a question that I'd really have.

from a scouting standpoint, is it great to have continuity? Yes, is it at times more valuable to have new perspectives, ideas, experiences? Yes. So, like, I think that's, that becomes part of the conversation, too. I know I'm weaving a lot of different paths and ways, but I, until I see the way the last four games go, it's hard to really say. But I do think it is important to be mindful of kind of the vision that was and, The results obviously matter, but the process is worth being mindful of as part of it, if that makes sense.

I don't know what you think of that. I'd be kind of curious. Yeah, I mean, I think that when it comes to going back, there's a pretty clear how much it impacted them to lose the way they did to the Rams. And if we talk about process, is it a good process to have one game go that way and then say, okay well you know this is how we're going to handle this now because that's what went wrong in that playoff game after 14 games or like is that pragmatic not really is that people have asked me about like how analytical is this the answer is big picture yes like building around the rookie quarterback contract a lot of the other stuff is not at all exactly the jonathan allen the jvon

hard i mean erin jones like you and i i mean that we would throw ourselves in front of a bus for and Jones are so impressed with that guy like everybody else is, but is that a like dollars to donuts type of good decision? And it's even like you could argue, I mean, the late third round pick on Ty Felton, like you could argue like, yes,

maybe he develops into a player, but at a time where your only current defensive starter that you've drafted since 2021 is Jay Ward, who's not really a starter, he's just a starter because Isaiah, like would it be nice to have a corner, a safety, or setter? So,

well, to me, that pick is not about, like who they picked, because I still like Felton as a prospect. I think he's talented, yeah, of course. Yeah, it's not a faded. It's more about, like, that was your only pick from number, from number 24 to, I don't know, like, 746 and not, like, giving away all of the picks to solve short-term problems in multiple seasons eventually adds up on you, which once again is not really an analytical

approach to it, but you're sort of trying to say, well, we're winning 14 games, we can do this, We got to go get Cam Robinson. We got to go get these other players. So it's a product in some ways of the previous success, but also desperation to make it happen in that moment by giving away a draft pick. And then you get to 2025 draft and you go, oh, we don't have any. So I think that that stuff has added up on them when we look forward. Yeah, the other aspect, and I talk big picture and I want to think big picture.

Well, the draft stuff is absolutely necessary. Part of the reason you're living in the free agency market where you're signing Jonathan Allen and J. Von Harger is because in the draft it's been so barren for as long as it's been. And some of the process in the draft and that stuff is worth questioning, criticizing all of that stuff. And I mean, I've said it many times. Like, if you're not drafting well, the conversation, I mean, you can only do so much as an organization. It's just kind of how I feel about it. Well, for me, you're just not drafting at all. Like, you're not drafting any people.

I mean, they did in one year in 2022, and because it went so sideways, they took an opposite approach, which was, we're going to use this draft capital to go get real players. And I think that largely for the rest of the roster, it's actually worked quite well because when we look at a full Minnesota Vikings against a beat-up Washington commanders, and we go position by position, we go, this isn't even close. Yeah. This is not, in fact, a lot of us, whoops, thought that they would. would match up well with Green Bay for the same reason when you looked at the offensive line versus the Vikings D line when it's healthy versus, you know, the Vikings offensive line when it's healthy can probably play toe to toe with just about anybody if Ryan Kelly is in there who I asked about today because he was

freaking incredible against Washington. It's like, oh yeah, they didn't have some of these guys for part of the season, but the roster is good. And even if you argue depth, I would ask how many teams have a great backup left tackle. They didn't just lose guys. They lost Andrew Van Ginkle, who, oh, yeah, surprise, he gets an interception the other day. It's like Harrison Smith, oh, I'm sorry, was there some other guy on the roster that was supposed to be Harrison Smith?

So my point with the drafting is that because they have taken these short-term or very specific window moves, it seems much more dire when you have a season like this than it would have. And the other thing I thought about, too, was if last year they had gone eight and nine with Sam Darnold, and then they did this, and they were sitting here at five and eight, it would still feel really bad, but it wouldn't feel anywhere near as bad as it does. So the order of how things happen impacts how we feel about them so much. And I still would argue that if J.J. McCarthy could develop to be the 16th best quarterback in the NFL next year with this roster, an added top draft pick and an ad quiz he's going to botch it i know it's just it's funny though because they

haven't botched the top picks the top picks are all playing well but except for lewis seen i don't know what he's doing today hope you're well uh but when it comes to like uh you know the rest of the roster they will create cap space we know that's going to happen they can make additions they can draft i think a top 10 cornerback and then go from there i don't think the outlook for 2026 is holy cow this thing is on fire i think it's all right this is what you truly plan for now let's see it yeah i mean it'll be interesting you know to assess i mean it starts obviously at the quarterback position like what is there are they willing to just you know roll with j jay j mccarthy and the development after they see the next four games and and just let it rip with jajan mccarthy

in 2026 and what is the level of backup or quarterback you're pairing with that or the door do they feel like you know what like this this path and the trajectory is going to take much longer than then maybe we feel comfortable with and shift course and go back to the settle for being good i mean it's um you know i i look at it a lot of different ways i will say like this this is an old roster and there aren't a ton of young players for me who are budding like i know there's been a lot of hype around dallas turner the last three or four weeks for me personally. The tape does not pop as much as the narrative has been on social media or what have you. Like, I didn't even notice them in the game against Washington.

And that's nothing against Dallas Turner, but I just think, like, you got to watch the film and be very aware that some of the pressures in previous games have come against tight ends or backup left tackles and not really a viable tackle that you need to beat on a weekly basis. So from a talent, I mean, again, there are going to be a lot of questions to ask. Again, quarterback, some of the personnel, safety, what happens with Harrison Smith, Corner, what do they do at Corner? Running back, what about Aaron Jones and pairing with Jordan Mason, tight in, T.J. Hawkinson, what are they going to do with Brian O'Neill's contract? And then you get to the staff. What's going to be different about the staff? What about Brian Flores? I mean, for me,

like. So many questions. Yeah, there's, there is a lot of questions. And so I guess to the point you were making a second ago, like you don't feel like it's, you know, the dire or what have you. Like I look, I don't know. I just would say that the lack of impact from youth generated from the draft places you in a position where, yes, you can make additions in a really poor free agent class where you're probably shopping with like 28 to 30 year. It's just not the spot that you want to be making additions in. And so, and then as far as J.J. McCarthy's development, until I see the accuracy consistently and an improvement that is drastic over the next four games, it's really hard for me to think that 2026 he is going to transition into being that number 16, you know, quarterback in the NFL.

Like, I just haven't seen enough for me to feel that way. Now, maybe the next four games do it. but I will be really curious and we've talked about this a lot like what the quarterback plan is going to be next to JJ and what they choose to do there will inform for me the expectations

and what's possible everywhere else. Well, I think that's the point is that if you got to the end of the season and felt like all right, you know, I think that there's a pretty predictable path for him to get to that. Like we've seen enough progress as he's played and we can buy

into that. Then it doesn't feel as dire is the point. If you get to the end and it feels just like this where you go, well, you know, there was that good quarter, that game was pretty good or you had that one game winning drive, but the rest of it was a lot of what you're talking about, kind of all over the place, scatter shot, then it will feel dire because then you are going to have to go out

and get someone else that gives you a chance to hang into a playoff race and that's where you're talking about like you're not chasing the Super Bowl, you're chasing keeping your jobs if you have to go out and trade. a third round pick for Mack Jones because you feel like you've pushed the chips to the middle of the table and it's about to go bust on you. And that's exactly where the Vikings were in 2021

when they made a bunch of oddball moves. They brought back Everson Griffin. They signed Delvin Tomlinson to a huge contract. They traded for Chris Herndon, which was just insane. Like they did a lot of stuff that was very panicky and desperate, which is what you're going to

see this offseason from this team if there's not a lot of confidence that J.J. McCarthy could be the guy. Well, and the other aspect, too, besides, like, keeping your jobs or, like, you know how this ownership is. They have not been willing to stomach the potential two and 15, three and 14, one and 16. And so, like, you know, it would be a major dice role to just be like, you know what, this is the guy you drafted, give it an offseason where he's healthy, hopefully entering the offseason, you know, to work on the mechanics and let it trip next year and see what happens and see if you could make it work.

That would be kind of a departure, I think, from how this ownership has typically acted. It would be kind of a leap, but then it would put you in a position where you either probably figure out you've got the guy and guys or whether you're picking highly in the draft where if you were picking highly in the draft in 2024, you'd probably feel much better about the situation that you were in right now. So, again, I frame it oftentimes, like, you know, the executives and the coaching are often thinking about their jobs, but there's no question that ownership plays a big role as well in terms of the roadmap that teams and executives and coaches ultimately take. I did this as an article once.

I interviewed a bunch of people about if coaches and GMs were given terms as opposed to, like, year to year, which is really what – it doesn't matter if they have extensions. They just, the owners have money. It doesn't matter. But if they were given like five year terms and you had to keep them in their jobs for that long, like how would they approach things differently? And I think every team except for the ones with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson would be thinking about much more long term. This is also a theory about why things work for the Packers all the time is because they sit Jordan Love for three years. And they just, you know, are comfortable having a season that's nine.

wins with Aaron Rogers if it also means Jordan Love is developing over that last year. Here's the other thing, too. Let's say JJ the last four games. It looks okay. There's spurs. There's spurs. There's not. And then you're like, okay, but we're going to get a guy who can compete with JJ, compete, like you probably sign them with certain guarantees or what have you in the next season. Then that guy plays. Well, then you've got three seasons of JJ's rookie contract now over. You've got to make a decision on the fifth year option. Are you going to turn to him in the fourth, like, I mean, you know, this third, that's the other aspect of this. It's not his second year that he's entering.

It's his third, it would be his third season. So it complicates things even further from that same. But you're, you doing that story is interesting. It's like Sam Presti with the Thunder can always take the long-term view. And that's why they've been able to accumulate as many picks. And when the more picks you accumulate that are premium picks, the more likely it is you're going to hit on some of those picks. you're probably going to miss some, but you're definitely going to hit others. And it's so, like, that's why the ownership conversation and the, you know, guys looking out for

their, like, it's a relevant conversation that impacts team building on a year-to-year basis. So this is exactly what we're talking about, why my take has been that the Wills should tell them, no Mac Jones, no Gino Smith, sure, like get a backup, get, have Carson come back or have, you know, whoever, it doesn't matter. Like, somebody, right? If his shoulder ever heals from that beating that he took. But, you know, the point is, like, just a backup, you get a backup, it's fine. But you have to live or die with what happens with J.J. McCarthy next year.

And here is why? Because when I look at the NFC North, is Detroit going anywhere? Probably not. Not next year. Is the Green Bay Packers going anywhere? No. They're still going to be really dang good. And the Chicago Bears have a head coach that,

is clearly proven that he could do the job. And a quarterback who, well, is not perfect still, is an ascending young QB who can improve his throwing as well. They also have cap space to work with in the future. Like, you are not playing in some sort of AAA league here. Like, this is the big leagues of the NFC North. And if you're going to have a click and go to the playoffs, you've got to be really dang good.

You can't be, let's have Mack Jones try to manage games and get to eight wins or nine wins. good. You've got to fight with the big boys. And I am very curious to see. And I think we've reached the point to talk about if Brian Flores is going to come back because his defense has been amazing. Again, this year, everyone's seen it. The way that they shifted in the middle of the season to solve problems, they went to an old school three, four, the way that they've played with everybody healthy. If I'm another team around the league that is in a bad situation and my owners have lots of money, I'd be calling Brian Flores agent and be like, come save us because, I mean, I know the Bengals don't have any money, but like,

imagine the Bengals. Come save us, Brian, and he probably can. So that's interesting. But let's talk about the final four games and who else on this roster you want to get answers on. Fun conversation. You didn't prep me for this. So I'm kind of thinking about it over the course of my head. I mean, first and foremost, like.

This is a no prep show, by the way. Your prep is every day. I know. That's true. but you're, you know, sometimes off the top of your head, you know how it goes. Naming guys and stuff, yeah. I mean, look, I've mentioned some of the positions that, for me, are worth eyeing. Corner, safety, running back, tight end, tackle, like, center, probably.

I mean, those are the positions that I've kind of looked at. Like, I think it's going to be interesting to see T.J. Hawkinson, how does he finish the season? What does that look like? Jordan Addison and Jalen Naylor? Like I don't want to say something crazy probably that's going to get aggregated. But like I think Jalen Naylor has been so good this year. Yeah, I agree. And he's going to be a free agent.

And what ballpark is he going to be living in? Probably like 12 to 14 million in average annual value. Whereas Jordan Addison, what he's going to be eligible for extension? What is his ballpark? Like 23-ish to, I don't know. Isn't he a guy you fifth year? option and weight? Yeah, I mean, rather than the extension, because you've got to see off the field. Right. But like, I mean, I would ask a question of like, would you consider

being willing to part with him for picks and go with a different strategy to kind of rejigger the cap and where you're allocating funds like that. So like those two guys, I'm watching a little bit. I don't know. I'm probably missing some obvious ones. Like Jonathan Allen, Jayvon Hartgrave, Can those guys prove that they should be on the 2026 roster, Ryan Kelly, same deal with him, although, look, like, Javan Hargrave, you cut them, you can save $11 million in cap. Ryan Kelly, you cut them, you say $12 million cap. Like, that's kind of where my mind goes with players. Who am I, I mean, who am I missing? Who am I forgetting?

I know there's something I'm missing here. It's a bit of a trick question, because there really isn't anybody outside of J.J. McCart. I mean, that's the point about this roster is that... I did a good job, though, didn't I? You did, yeah, you went through. I think the whole roster, you didn't mention Ryan Wright in his coffin corners over... He's had a great season, by the way. Special teams is 9th and DVOA.

Miles Price, I'd like to see some more returns. I don't know. Maybe I'd like to see him actually get the ball in the game. You know, maybe... They had a... Remember, there was like a play against the Seahawks early in the game where Miles Price is in the backfield

and you weren't there I was in the Seahawks press box and I was like, is that Miles Price in the game? Like what's going on with that? Yeah, I don't know, but that is the problem with analyzing the final four games though is

I mean, we're not looking at Jay Ward like is he going to play a lot more I mean, but this seems like an inconsequential type of thing. We've already struggling so much. We've already decided on Jalen Redmond is awesome and I guess they're going to have to decide whether to bring back Eric Wilson after he's been such a good fit with the defense.

He's been fantastic. But if Brian Flores goes elsewhere, then does that make the same amount of sense to pay him based on this season? Can you imagine the idea of that happening and then the coordinator, new leader, new play? I mean, like, beyond everything else, I just can't even imagine the mayhem that that would be. I mean, it's possible. It is certainly the door is. open for that you could say you know a theo jackson if he comes back like is there something there but i think i think we've decided on everybody except for nine like that's the only person

that we don't really have a really good sense for it like we could start the off season today on everything else which we kind of did with this conversation everyone else so now one last question for you because i don't i don't have a great answer either i mean like ben sims there's just there are just no players that we're finding out about donovan jackson i've already already decided. I think he's dang good. I think Donovan can really play. So it's really, here's what I like about the situation, though, or the last four games. And it requires this last thing for four games. They have enough. They have the receivers healthy, the line healthy, the running backs healthy. They have the bad defenses that they're going to play over the next

couple games. Everything is there. If you can't do it now, you probably might not be able to do it. So here's a question. Fan duel, on Fan duel, the odds have moved a little bit over the last couple days. The Vikings are now plus 550 to win eight games

this season to finish with eight wins, which require, if you want to do the math, three of the last four. That was maybe uncomfortable. Can they do it? Yeah, they can for sure. Yeah, they can. Definitely. I mean, like, and I think the formula has to be you get up early in games, you run the football well, your offensive line stays healthy, you force some turnovers. Like this Dallas game for me is, I mean, it's definitely winnable, but like tackling pickings and potentially CD on the outside is not going to be easy. DAC is capable for sure. But their defense is really getable. The Giants game, I think that's a very winnable game.

without question on both sides, and I would have much more confidence in this staff to have their guys ready than Mike Kafka. Week 17, Christmas, the Lions, like, I mean, I haven't felt great about the Lions all year. Like, I was asked on the radio maybe, like, six weeks ago, who I thought was going to win the NFC North. I just didn't, I don't feel great about their interior offensive line, and they need the interior to be great for that quarterback in particular. And then the defense always feels so volatile to me with how they play. So that to me is a winnable game. And then are the Packer, what are they playing for, week 18?

So you could get to a spot for me where it's definitely possible. I'd probably predict two and two would be much more feasible in my mind. But yeah, I think it's possible, don't you? If they get to 8 and 9, it's going to be a very weird thing to analyze. because it's going to be like, well, it's like, I've seen worse. And, you know, but it's certainly not good. But then if you won what's crazy with, you know, quarterback who was injured and was struggling and then came out of it.

The craziness is how many teams throughout the league are going to have that same feeling at the end. Like, think about Miami. Like, it was a mess. Now they're running the ball. Like, it's like the greatest show on turf. game with Aaron Brewer, the center's pulling, the Chiefs, it's been like a mess of the highest order, but they could finish. So yeah, but yeah, I, I, getting to eight and nine after all of this, if we get there, I mean, holy cow, we've got four weeks left. I don't know if I,

I'm going to do my best, I can. Um, it's, uh, but yeah, it would be, it would be wild and it would frame offseason stuff in a very interesting way. And that's, I mean, like, the hard part for me is, and this is kind of a tangent, but I have had so many conversations with people and they're like, well, what do you do? What do you, in the off-season? And it's like to wrap my mind about the direct plan and approach that the path that they need to go down has been hard for me to really like conceptualize. And maybe that's because I don't have all the information because there are four games left. But I wonder if you feel that same way. Well, I think because I came up with a take that none of you guys could pick apart in the media room the other day,

I feel very good about where I stand with. What do you do? What do you do is the same thing you just did. There's nothing else to do. You roll with J.J. McCarthy unless, look, if he goes 0 and 4 and it's just atrocious, then I'll change the take. But if we're going with two and two, like, all right, you go with J.J. McCarthy, and you spend and you adjust the cap and you sign free agents and you draft someone high and you do it again. Because, This was your plan, so... And then, like, let's say you get to week... What other plan is there?

Okay, so let's say you get to week five, and Justin Jefferson is just apoplectic about what's going on, then what? If it played out the same way next year as it did this year, all the plausible deniability is out the window. Well, it's a young quarterback. Well, he hurt his ankle. Well, this guy, the left tackle was... It's like, okay, okay.

This would be... But what if? What if week two, he hurts his ankle? Then it's like, ah! Then it's... Then it becomes a results-based league at some point, right? Like, that's what it becomes at some point. It's like it's W&L.

This year there's a lot of explanations and excuses to be had, and including that they missed on how much McCarthy would have to learn about really playing in real games. There will be no excuse for that next year. There will be no, well, he was recovering and he only got to throw the ball in January. Well, no, he's going to be able to throw the ball all the way through the offseason, through the ball this year he's going to be able to work with hopefully a new quarterback coach who isn't online and we'll see you know where it comes out but i would do free agency the same exact way where you're looking at veteran players who can fill spots you're looking at trying to cover up every single hole maximize the total roster strength around mccarthy and give it a shot because there's no other way there is a way that saves your job which is that you trade for gino smith and he's just good enough to get you get you to 10 wins and just good enough to make you interesting, but you're going to get pummeled in the playoffs again, and then we live in a simulation, and it will just feel like, why did we do

any of that? Why did you do any of this? Why did you, why didn't you just keep Kirk if you were going to do that, right? I'm just playing out the string on this, right? So like, but like what's, let's say, you know, again, the next four games, it's, it's, it's pretty rough. We're saying two and two isn't pretty rough like no like a one and three yeah like it's rough all right and then you're like okay we'll trade a third round pick for mac jones and then mac comes in and you win you win 10 games and then it's like well we can act if we draft well around mac maybe like what then are you do you feel like you can't stand this because you just think there's no well i have to be consistent at least to some extent when we do it this many podcasts it's hard to sometimes but thanks for

the people who pointed out. When it comes to Kirk Cousins, what was my main gripe? It wasn't that I didn't like Kirk personally. He was great to deal with for us. It was that I felt like they would never be able to, under those circumstances with him as the quarterback, take another step to being a true Super Bowl contender. And if you trade for Mack Jones, and I was like a Mac guy back in the day, I thought he was going to be good.

And so this year, I was kind of like, ooh. but that was based on the idea of the rookie quarterback contract for Mac. It was not based on going and trading an asset and then maybe even having, if he plays well and you win 10 games, then you have to sign him to an extension. And then like, where are we? Right. Just in another version of hell. For the record, like trading a pick.

Okay, well, you need that pick because this team hasn't, doesn't have enough young players that are developing. So you need the pick. Mack Jones, like, again, and what does it look like in this system? and this is like I'm not that's not a recommendation it is just it like your take is interesting because I mean having a hard time I've had a hard time coming up with the road map beyond that specific approach kind of in some way just follow the road wherever it shall take us is my take and we'll see if they actually do it but so much will be determined in four

games which is also a really stupid way to make decisions exactly but what choice do you have When the injuries, I mean, what choice do you have? Like, it's a, I mean, that's the, again, and that's the hard part, similar to the darnel thing last year. It was a two-game sample at the end, but it was the magnified, important, integral two games. And that's, it's hard not, you said psychology at the beginning of this podcast, like, to, to remove yourself from that would be inhuman.

So it's, it's, it's tough, it's interesting, it's fascinating. I'm curious to see how it looks, Sunday night in Arlington, Texas. I really am. Me too. Alec Lewis, the Alec Lewis Show, The Athletic and Peer Progression Expert now. I love that whole thing, by the way. Yeah. I'm learning about football.

That was the thing. When I cover baseball, people were so willing to teach you about the game. In football, it's less been like that. And so, I mean, on a serious note, to hear it. how they teach the passing game is cool and insightful. So, yeah, the arguments are fun too. We have taken a quarterback school this year, and that's a great thing about this game is that whenever you think, like, I know a lot of football, then they remind you that

there's a lot of football you still can learn. So we have a technique, fundamentals, how to throw a football properly, how the progressions work, how it's advanced defensively, which has caused the offense to have to find answers for it and et cetera, et cetera. We've learned a lot. We'll never forget 2025 regardless of the record.

All right, Alec, thank you for your time. Thanks, everybody for watching slash listening, and you know, football.