Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Analyzing Justin Jefferson's fading target share

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

Matthew Coller and Mike Schopp of The Deep End Fantasy Football podcast and ADP Chasing talk about Justin Jefferson not getting the ball against the Bears and Kyler Murray's fascinating season Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

🎵 🎵 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Mike Shope for the Purple Insider Fantasy Shope. Mike, of course, of the Deep End Fantasy Football Podcast and ADP Chasing Now and WGR 550 in Buffalo. And if you want to add any more titles to that uh we're at the max it's it's three that's as many that's amazing i'm not reading any more than that uh the show as always presented by our friends at underdog fantasy the easiest place to play fantasy sports and the fastest growing app in the industry use our code purple to sign up and claim your

special pick and first time deposit offer up to to $1,000 in bonus cash. Must be 18 or older. Terms apply. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or ncpgambling.org. Mike, I'm not concerned with my play. You know why? This week I walk in with my head held high.

I am a winner for this week's fantasy show i won 80 cents on sunday on the minnesota vikings and chicago bears game had i known that justin jefferson wouldn't catch any passes and would instead just be interfered with the entire game i may have won a lot more than that, but I am on the positive side of a pick them by 80 cents. That is great. This, this does not have to apply to you. You do you in golf. So people play golf, I'm told, and they shoot a score and they might say, well, I shot an 84 with an eight. And a long time ago, one of my mentors, John McEntee, said, never do that. Never invoke the with rule. 84 is 84. It doesn't matter if you made all fives, all pars, whatever, and one 12 or something.

84 is 84. So yeah, you want to talk about Justin Jefferson? So do I. I mean, I don't know where you spent that 80 cents. Maybe you're sort of setting me up to ask you where you spent your 80 cents. You're a saver, I think. That might be up to 81 cents by now in your account. But I want to talk about Justin Jefferson too. And I have the questions for you on this one because I had, so week 12 in high stakes is a critical week. That's the end of the regular season. And FFPC, where I play also with underdog, you know, a lot of, a lot of tournaments and leagues at week underdogs,

the best ball site FFPC is managed. So you're making cuts, you know, you're setting lineups and there's one particular tournament or league called the Hardway, which is all like industry experts. You know, you're playing against the top of the top. And my deep end co-host and I, Adam Crutworth, went into week 12, really close, just like, you know, seven points literally behind the leader. So I've got the screen for you to analyze from our Week 12 performance. There we are on the right for those watching the deep end. And, you know, you see some names you know. Kyler, what jumps out at you, Matt, as we scroll through here? Don't mind the final score because what we needed in this case

was to win on points. We did win this matchup, but we ended up 15 points short, not the same as one point, but still a very tough beat. What do you see here? Well, Kyler Murray didn't have a great week last week. Justin Jefferson most certainly did not with two catches for 27 yards what else we got here we got some uh some cooper cup uh some trey mcbride oh i didn't know that trey mcbride had such a huge year aaron jones a

phenomenal game for you got hunter henry hunter henry that's fine cle Cleveland's defense got you quite a bit there and on your bench was Jalen Waddell instead of Justin Jefferson who was in the starting lineup is this what you're pointing out you know it's one thing you could say about it is that Justin Jefferson in an overtime game that went four hours had two catches it's one thing you could notice I I respect that observational acumen from yourself. What is going on? You're talking about pass interference. My opponent, not in this matchup, and I'll just close

this because I'm still hurting too badly. The guy I needed, Adam and I needed to run down had Addison. That very much proved to be the difference. I don't know., what I think I joined purple insider. Not my first take,

but we had a conversation a month ago or so about like, does Addison need to sit down? And he had an injury, but ever since then, like he's scoring and he's been very valuable in fantasy. Whereas Jefferson, who you drafted in the first round has not um is that gonna is that gonna turn around is it even bad for the vikings this way they're winning yeah so there's a few different things there number one uh the jacksonville jaguars played this defense a few weeks ago that i would describe as if you went to the YMCA and you were playing five on five

and one of the guys played D1, you'd put three people around him and be like, all right, Joe from sales is going to beat us. It ain't going to be the guy who played D1 and can still dunk. That's what this is. I watched it back. I did a film study thing on it against Chicago because now that succeeded to some extent, they still controlled the entire game. Hawkinson dominated that week. And then Tennessee didn't have much success with it. Didn't really do it, but Chicago, they played a completely different defense than they usually play. They put Jalen Johnson on him at the line of scrimmage. And then every time he left the line of scrimmage,

there was one other person there and somebody else also watching. This was three people on every single play against Justin Jefferson. And in the red zone, you could see guys stopping. They know what their assignments are, but they're like, wait, that's not my assignment. My assignment is Jefferson. And he throws two touchdowns because of this. And the play in overtime to TJ Hawkinson, the attention, all the eyes go to Justin Jefferson.

Hawkinson runs wide open for whatever it was, 34-yard play. There were so many great plays in this game that were directly a result of the Bears all watching Justin Jefferson. So if you're a football team whose goal it is to win the game, I think Kevin O'Connell is like, this is great. That was one of the best offensive games that you're ever going to see. Now they have to tell Jefferson, don't get upset. I know you're a wide receiver. But the other thing, too, is he gained, I think it was about 60 yards of pass interference. And the Vikings are second in the NFL in pass interference

yards, all on Justin Jefferson, no points. And then right. No points. And then a 40 yard touchdown is pulled off the board because of an illegal pick play of which the guy didn't have to do it. Like he ran into his defender when, if he had just run the route, Jefferson catches the ball and goes for a touchdown anyway. So it was a myriad of factors. I mean, he's still second in receiving yards in the entire NFL. And I think other teams, if you watch it and go, oh, wait, Jordan Addison is really good too, and Hawkinson wasn't on the team for half the year, he destroyed the Chicago Bears as well. I don't think other teams down the stretch are going to be able to say,

let's just put everybody on Jefferson, because it turns out Todd from sales is actually a sniper from three, so we're going to have to pay attention to him. This is why you spend a first round pick on another receiver. This is why you spend a trade for TJ Hawkinson because you know that this is going to happen and you've always got that option. And suddenly Sam Darnold is a top 10 quarterback because of it. Well saying first how terribly sad it is that there are NFL teams

that care more about winning than about points in fantasy football. I mean, that is terrible. But okay, that's the reality in which we live. Eric Eager, I want to invoke, evoke? Evoke. Eric Eager, E-E-E, for a minute. Because my favorite thing ever from our old friend Eric in terms of analysis was the huge importance of a wide receiver two in the playoffs how teams they've had all year

to prepare for you these are the better teams and they can be better at taking away your number one. In Buffalo, I think this sort of gives Stephon Diggs a little bit of a pass. But for the most part in the playoffs, he went away. I mean, he did not have his best games. He was an early season monster the last two years. And then some of the justification, I think, at least that they would make for moving on from him, is that in the postseason, it just was not there. And you had a huge Gabe Davis game famously in the 21 playoffs, but Chase and Higgins, Kopp and Odell, the year the Rams won, you know, the teams that have a second guy are especially dangerous. And this, I think, might pump me up if I were a Vikings fan

for the playoffs, which they'll almost definitely make. Detroit, which is so good. I mean, Detroit for me, this might be too long ago for you. I don't know. You know your history, though. 91 Washington, which was this sort of out-of-nowhere behemoth of a team. They had Mark Rippon, and they ran the ball. Gary Clark from the USFL.

Okay, maybe they're great. I've talked to players on the Bills team that they beat in the Super Bowl badly. Steve Tasker, for one, is like, that's the best team I've ever seen or played against by far. The next year, they went back into the...

It's not exactly Detroit because Detroit was really good last year. I don't know, though. After St. Brown, they don back into the it's not exactly Detroit because Detroit was really good last year I don't know though after St. Brown they don't really need it like they're just Gibbs and Montgomery and their defense is good enough and they're winning big and just it's not really there if they get into a close game I think this is what San Francisco has on them this is what Philadelphia has on them the NFC in AFC, it's hard to sort of identify wide receiver one on the top teams, but in the NFC, Brown and Devontae Smith, I mean, I was Ayuk, but Samuel, maybe Jennings and Kittle with the Niners, if they make it. And Minnesota has that clearly with three guys that makes them interesting in this particular way.

So I don't know. I'm not over the Jefferson dud. The guy that ended up taking that spot for me is Davis Maddock, who I co-host ADP chasing with. And he's like, buddy, I would totally trade that Addison game in for just one Jefferson game because he's drafting the max number of teams on underdog best ball mania. And he loved Jefferson versus Chase versus Tyreek versus Brees Hall and Bijan all offseason, if I may speak for him.

And like here it comes down to it and it's not there, but let's hope it turns around. Well, let's keep in mind the defenses that they're going to face here going forward. Arizona is definitely nothing special. Atlanta may very well have the worst defense in the entire NFL. Then they've got, what, after that, Seattle is nothing special defensively, and Green Bay, Detroit, those teams are going to be pretty good defensively. But aside from that,

they've got some opportunities here down the stretch to get Justin Jefferson the football, and I guarantee to. After last week, he does not really enjoy the fact that every time he doesn't have a huge game, and again, he's number two in the league in receiving, but every time he doesn't have a huge game,

the entire press conference, what do they do? What do they do? How did they take you away? He's that dominant in his career that the expectation is that every single game he just gets 100 yards. And he is down a little in terms of receiving yards per game. He's down from I think 96 is his career number, and it's 86 this year.

It isn't like teams are actually taking him away. It just has been two times the last three weeks that they've played this cartoon defense, and it hasn't really worked. It definitely didn't work for Chicago, as they ripped off huge explosive play after huge explosive play. So I've got to think that next week, I wouldn't be surprised at all. And you know Kevin O'Connell's going to be working all week on this. He's going to be scarfing stuffing while he's drawn up on the iPad ways to

get Jefferson the football. But from his perspective, I mean, there's not much you could do. He had a 35 yard touchdown. He's free. He's going to catch it. And the guy tackles him flag. What are you supposed to do? I mean, there's, he is, he really is that terrifying to opponents that this is the way that they they guard him so there isn't a whole lot you could do there but you mentioned that eric eager article from a few years ago and that really i had always thought more weapons was better just in general like passing correlates the most to success so more guys who

could catch the ball but that article really solidified it so when the Vikings were in the draft who do they pick Addison a corner a defensive tackles like get Addison give me Addison give me a guy who can win one-on-one because if he gets that opportunity he could catch a 69 yard pass down the sideline he could catch a 50 yard pass where he also got interfered with and they didn't call it uh the vikings have the most diverse offense i think other than maybe philadelphia in the nfl and aaron jones bounced back so there's your there's your bounce back guy you lose a little jefferson last week you get some aaron jones back at least he was in my lineup but until i figure out a way to

get points for bracket coverage and being tackled, you know, it's still frustrating. But that's how fantasy is. I mean, of course, that's what makes it interesting. It's what makes football interesting is the back and forth, the cat and mouse. You know, I play Minnesota largely the same way. I mean, it depends on the personnel. I mean, if I had Patrick Sertan, maybe I would dare to not care that much about it and just see what happens. Denver put Sertan on a tight end last week and won easily. Brock Bowers was getting all the work for the Raiders.

And I think maybe, I'm sure there are differences, but maybe what happened there is some version of this where Bowers has been their go-to guy and they eliminated him. And so you had big games from Jacoby Myers and Trey Tucker. It didn't result in a win. It's not as good of a team. Minnesota is one of the more interesting teams in the league this year. I've really enjoyed focusing on them with you through the season. I think, and I'm not asking you for this. I'm deciding that I need a Vikings helmet.

If I'm going to really be a member of this team, I need one of these. Well, here I have Buffalo, which is not, that's my one exception because I live in Buffalo and my kids bought me that helmet because they knew I collected many helmets. But every other helmet I have is a Superbowl MVP. If I were to, and I want to add a Vikings signed Vikings mini helmet to my collection, who should it be? Like who is the quintessential Vikings?

I kind of want it to be Alan page, but I've met Miller. Was it? Okay. My pick was Alan page. I think Alan page is the greatest Viking of all time. Also, like, the greatest human of all time. But, you know, there's a lot of good picks.

I mean, Fran Tarkenton, of course, is a great pick. If you want to go back in the day. If you want to know who, like, the most popular Viking is that doesn't have that type of resume it's got to be Tommy Kramer like Tommy Kramer is so so loved in Minnesota but if you're looking for the championship caliber teams it would be page first Eller to me is right there um also maybe a deserved shout out for Jim Marshall if you're a Jim Marshall guy that that shows that you know your stuff, right? Because he isn't in the Hall of Fame for some reason.

Even though when they redid those sack numbers, he was one of the best ever. He was the captain for the entire time. There's a lot of good picks. I think Paige is the one. So I will get on it. Okay. I want to talk about Kyler Murray

because it's been a journey for kyler murray from a fantasy football perspective and a real football perspective just when i think wow it's really clicking for kyler murray watch out for arizona when they come to play the vikings he's going to be really rolling and in a great spot and then they score six points against a Seattle Seahawks defense. And then they're going to come here. I just, is it just boom or bust with him on a given week, depending on the matchup, depending on the scrambles and all the wild playmaking stuff?

Or are you seeing something different with him? Did it pay off for fantasy owners who bet on Kyler Murray this year? Oh boy, that's a great question. There are lots of good questions about him, and that's one of them, if not the one. Remember Matthew Barry, one of the fantasy analysts, maybe the number one who's transcended the fantasy space. He has a ride-or-die player every year. This guy's either going to win it for me or I'm going to lose,

and this year's player for him was Kyler Murray. So one thing, and I'm trying to look this up now as we're talking, Murray needed more rushing to pay off, I think from a fantasy context. And I'm looking now it's ticked up a little bit, but it's not like his second year in the league, he ran for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns and they're not, that's no real weapon for the Cardinals. He's unique as a, as a player, you can picture him running the fast feet. You know, I know some analysis about him by the film watchers, the ball knowers have been more like he doesn't see the whole field. And that's something maybe whether that's related to his size or just what, where he's not a complete quarterback on the elite level.

And I think we know that, you know, fantasy wise, he's been a pretty good asset. He was drafted in like maybe the seventh or eighth round on underdog and, you know, he would have been your QB one, which, you know, Darnold is somebody once McCarthy got hurt, Darnold would have been a very nice compliment to, uh, Murray on a team like that or Gino, somebody like that. You would have done, you would have had a better, probably you should have had a better quarterback too on your Murray teams. How he's playing, it would be, I think, pretty frustrating as a fan to handle the swings when it comes to the Cardinals.

I'm with you. That was a critical game. You saw my lineup from earlier with McBride in it. I mean, he did get there on points, but that was a game I was really hoping would shoot out Arizona and Seattle. And to see 16-6 is pretty gross. Harrison is really maybe even a better story this year for Arizona. Again, thinking as a fantasy analyst and looking back, thinking back to drafts, he went late first round, early second round.

We're all watching Saquon Barkley destroy the league and maybe asking ourselves, why didn't we just pick him? He went more toward the end of the second round in drafts. And Harrison, I think, is the quintessential example of, well, were we too caught up in sexy young receivers to see, is that why we missed maybe some of these more obvious, reliable running back choices? I don't know.

I mean, fantasy-wise, Murray's been okay. Not bad. But the story this year at that position is more guys like Darnold who have been consistently productive, you know, cheaper guys. Gino is another one. Goff, where he didn't have to spend up at that position. Am I telling you anything you didn't know? I'm not sure I am.

I mean, it's my job to pay attention to this. So no, you're not telling me specifically anything. I don't know. But I don't know how much of our audience has paid close attention to Kyler Murray's arc this year. So maybe them. But as far as Murray goes, one thing I was a little bit concerned about going into the season from a statistical perspective was the rushing yards,

because I noticed that there are from those young quarterbacks, there's a pretty clear decrease over their careers in the actual rushing yards. Whether you go back to even Randall Cunningham, or you look at Steve McNair or any, any of the rushing quarterbacks as they get into their primes and they understand how to play football a little more, there's less times where they take the snap, have no idea what's going on and then just run. And with Kyler Murray, he is also coming off of an ACL injury, which I don't know if that's a huge factor for him not running as much, but it's got to be in the back of your mind somewhere of, I don't want to be just a pure,

I'm going to run all the time type of quarterback and then throw occasionally. You want to justify that contract by getting the ball to your wide receivers. Harrison is the one that is also interesting to me because as you go into this game, that's going to be a guy who gets talked about a lot. It's a great weapon. And can the Vikings slow him down? They had some trouble last week against Roma Dunze and DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. I just haven't really seen the type of production from Harrison that would suggest this guy was going to be this transcendent franchise player. I mean, I heard draft analysts saying you're, you're going to be building statues of this guy, which is so idiotic to say about any draft prospects, since

we've seen so many of them go bust or disappoint or whatever over the years and college football isn't NFL football but he's still good and he's still there what what have you made of him just kind of being a guy this year rather than some franchise changing player well you know to try to represent as you know an analyst like a real football what's happening on the field to me the sense I get on Harrison is he's super polished I mean one thing everybody liked about him as a prospect was just how like NFL ready the guy was he also goes by the name of Marvin Harrison and others in the fantasy community and I'm sure many other people, too, have thought to mention, like if his name was Todd from sales or something else, maybe if Malik Neighbors had been the son of an NFL great and not Harrison, maybe they were drafted in a different order. Neighbors

and Brian Thomas, to a different extent in Jacksonville, have shown this explosiveness that Harrison has not. He's a different player than that. And I don't think that's a bad thing, but back to fantasy, you spent so much money on him. The draft capital on Harrison was at the latest pick 15 or 16 in drafts. And you need that guy to be more consistently great, especially in a year where the running backs have owned the room. I mean, they've just been the story of the season in fantasy. Older running backs who we all tried to avoid, several of them have been pretty amazing.

So I think Harrison probably has a great future. The thing about statues is, especially if it's a non-quarterback, so reliant on who the quarterback is and what the scheme is. And is it a situation where the guy can have those kind of big years? Like Jefferson has been so fortunate to have his entire career in Minnesota. I mean, he just sort of fell into, you know, the perfect stats wise, at least kind of the perfect team, and, you know, you should be so lucky. Chase, even the same thing with Burrow and with that offense. So, I mean, McBride, too, Matthew, like, he was my tight end one this year.

That's been okay. Some of the other guys who were drafted in the same range, Dalton Kincaid, for one, Mark Andrews, even Kelsey, have not been as – the ceiling has been much lower. And McBride, I think, eye test-wise, he's really good. I mean, last year when he started to show for the Cardinals, there was a game in Pittsburgh that they maybe even won. There was a lightning delay in that game, I forget.

But I remember watching that game with friends and, like, look at this guy. Who knew this? Because the year before, he was playing behind Zach Ertz, and he just sounded like another name, a tight end that was kind of buried. But, man, tight ends can take longer. And I think, you know, he is really a weapon. So that's about how deep it runs with the Cardinals, with Harrison and McBride.

I mean, Connor's been consistently good for a long time, another running back in fantasy football that you drafted in the middle and has been well worth it. But they're not a team where you have many other names after that. Right. During draft season two years ago, I became a Michael Wilson guy. Yeah. So he is a receiver on this team and make some plays for them but he was one of those didn't have quite the production because he had some

injuries or something but had great combine and great senior bowl and all those things and that was one where i was saying let me draft simulate the vikings getting michael wilson over and over. And then you, for whatever reason, those guys stick in your head. Like, oh yeah, that's where he landed with 30 catches for the Arizona Cardinals. What are we, what are we to make of, I feel like it needs to be a weekly update of Anthony Richardson's game last week against Detroit. Because you talk about the pass interferences and stuff. I saw a list.

Somebody posted a list of the plays that he had taken off the board from penalties and things like that. And there was a couple of drops that people, you know, clipped and posted on the internet that just right through the old myths there. Would you want him on your team going down the stretch of this year? Fantasy-wise? Absolutely.

Yeah, I love their schedule. They start with New England this week. They have some great matchups. Yeah, the game two weeks ago, he really made a point that he was willing to run through you, and he did for two touchdowns against the Jets. And there was a fairly good rushing floor against the Lions, too. It's canceling Jonathan Taylor, which isn't great, at least so far.

That's not what's supposed to happen when your quarterback can run. He's supposed to represent a threat that opens lanes up for your great running back and not yet really for Taylor. But I love the Colts schedule. They're in playoff contention. They've lost Josh Downs here, it seems, for a minute. But some of that stuff, I think, I wonder if you'd agree, like drops and mistakes. Some of that can be the quarterback's fault, you know, whether that's just sort of like

a slight difference in timing, where the ball is expected to be. That's kind of the thing about Flacco that coaches do like. And you saw the receivers really pop when he played, but you also saw egregious turnovers. And, you know, Richardson is by far the better investment, the bigger investment as well the Colts have made. So wide receiver wise, it's really tough to count on, to trust. Pittman had a game against the Lions. That's also a tough opponent.

I mean, you get behind, and it's really hard to get much done. So I don't want to put too much, you know, say too much negative toward Richardson for that game. But again, third time I'm saying it, I guess their schedule is excellent. And I think he's a fantasy starter this week. Next week, man, are the Colts on by? Six teams are on by next week. They are. Colts, Patriots, Denver, Houston. And there are two more. Yeah, so you got to keep that

in mind too what what day is it December the people are getting buys on in December that doesn't make any sense to me uh well with Richardson he seems to be more aggressive since he came back with the running part and his coach also seems to be more aggressive with calling the running part. And if you forget about the running part with Anthony Richardson, I, you should just put a rocket ship sent to the moon and you need to stay there. Don't come back to earth where we play football,

because that doesn't make any sense. That's one of the reasons that that guy was drafted where he was drafted. Anyhow, he has a lot of my attention because i still think that he can become one of the best quarterbacks in the nfl that's his ceiling and they just need to let it happen they can't bungle it or overreact or whatever and it was an interesting game because pff graded him really well and then his stat line wasn't very good so when there's

that difference then i start looking for well what what exactly happened there if they graded him well but he didn't get the stats and that's where i came up with the drops and so forth yeah that's don't read the comments when that kind of thing happens right like when the pff grade is good but like you watch the game right that's what? That's what the comments will tell you. But no, I'm like-minded with you on that. But I do think, again, how quarterbacks have – I mean, it's not an underrated role, but of course a hugely important role in those details.

Houston. Every time I've watched Houston, I look over at their games the last couple weeks. It's a touchdown being called back. Somebody was lined up wrong, you know, turnovers, think of Stroud against Detroit on the Sunday night where it's just like the timing was off. It's no better there than the Indianapolis example, really like just too many self-inflicted wounds. This has been a Baltimore problem for me over the years where everybody knows what the upside looks like. They're, again, like almost for the third or fourth or fifth year in a row, I mean,

Jackson won the MVP in 2019. They look closer to unstoppable pretty much every year than anyone else. But you have these details that get missed, and some are coaching, and maybe some are on Jackson. It's one thing I loved about their game Monday night because both of those things were on point. Fourth downs, the Andrews run after it looked like they were just sort of setting up to kick it, great call.

And there was a Derrick Henry fourth down run where Jackson rushed everybody to the line. The Chargers could not get lined up, but he had everybody lined up, you know, legally and quick hitter to Henry around the left end for a huge play. That's one thing, you know, we usually mention the Bills here.

That's where I'm located. That's one thing about Josh Allen's career that maybe goes underrated is that they don't make those kind of mistakes. They don't, they've had false starts this year, but those kind of illegal formation, remember Baltimore in the opener in Kansas City where the first drive, they had like four illegal formation penalties. That is administrative. I mean mean that's also something that a quarterback can have a role in helping to correct so maybe this is a good sign for the Ravens I think the Texans are really a disappointment because there are so many of these mistakes and Indianapolis maybe it's the same thing their guy has just played a lot less football

and so I wouldn't want to be as worried. Oh, that's definitely true. He just needs to play more. One thing I will say is that the refs are really on one this year when it comes to the illegal procedure and the lining up wrong. The Tennessee Titans deserve to have a huge beef. They threw a touchdown, and the tackle is like, I don't know, four more feet than he was supposed to be or two more feet than he's who knows. The Vikings had a first down in

the red zone taken off the board against the Jaguars that probably would have resulted in that game looking more like a blowout. And instead, well, now you've got to kick a field goal or maybe that was one of the interceptions. Maybe the refs are using it to cover games. I'm kidding. I'm kidding, for the people who love that. Well, it's usually the other way around, right? Because it's supposed to be all about the offense. The first play of Houston-Dallas on Monday night was a 90-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins, but Laramie Tunsil was four yards downfield.

They put the camera on the referee, Rolstad. Got to respect this guy, by the way, for going full dad bod in an era where apparently every NFL referee has to be a bodybuilder. I don't get that at all, but here's Rolstad. He's sticking up. We're going to be in court someday on this one. They just show him, and he's obviously listening to the space ref. What are we going to do here?

And, you know, we have to call this. It was a few yards. We have to call this. So that's what happened on that one. But, you know, maybe by the playoffs, at least, this is what usually happens in sports. In basketball, we don't call as many fouls. We've got a bigger audience.

We want points. So keep pushing the envelope, I say offensive lineman. Also, when you get to the Super Bowl, they do not call any penalties ever. Oh, right. Literally, there has never been one. It feels like that, except for on Seattle against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And the story was that Mike Holmgren made some comment to the ref that he felt he accidentally insulted the referee. And that's why they got all

the penalties probably they just committed them but uh yeah anyway that's well the the so-called that's actually right because i think this goes unnoticed largely um seattle when they were winning the super bowl was you know that the line was that they were holding on every play in the secondary. And go for it. Why wouldn't you? Why wouldn't you just push that line as hard as you can? Because you know how the league works. You had two – this drives me crazy.

And I always hear it. Each of the last two Monday nights, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman mock the referees for how many penalties. Oh, it must be Monday when there are two penalties that are obviously correct calls right away. How about some respect for how do you want this to work, actually? I mean, I know it's a TV show, but can we just sort of maybe not make a production out of referees calling the game correctly. It's bad enough when there are mistakes, but if we can't, you know, impress you by calling the game, right. Because what it's going to take too long.

Who's who's turning the game off anyway, in the fourth quarter. Like why, why is that? But Bach and Al Michaels, like for years, it's years, it's usually not even funny when it's Buck, but it's about how, you know, must be Monday, we've got penalties. Yeah, okay. Well, I'm one fan who wants the game to be called fairly. And if we have too many penalties

that are obviously right, I'm not mad. Well, I'm sure theings fans would agree with you because circling back to our initial conversation about how they're guarding justin jefferson teams are taking this approach there's no way the referees will call it on us every single time so we're going to grab jefferson every time and yes we will get hit with 50 yards of penalties, but they won't hit us with 200 yards of penalties. I think that's been about the total for Jefferson this year. I looked it up. NFL penalties dot com is like 190 yards that they've gotten for pass interference. How much should it be versus that?

If you go back and watch how often they're grabbing him off the line of scrimmage and the answer is a hell of a lot more than that. So you're right. I think that a hell of a lot more than that. So you're right. I think that a lot of people would rather see that. Penalties are frustrating to watch because they take big plays off. I think my thing is that the NFL can sort of overly litigate things that no one wanted them to litigate, which is, is the offensive tackle three feet farther back than he's supposed to be?

Maybe just tell him. I don't want a 90-yard touchdown taken off the board because of that. And then you get into the referees will, oh, well, you know, it didn't have an impact on the play. It was away from the play, but it might have. Like, I don't know. It's a very tricky sport. Last year, just quickly quickly Kansas City Buffalo that game

swung on a Kadarius Tony offside penalty on a play where it might even have been Tony who caught a lateral from Travis Kelsey deep down from this amazing play Patrick Mahomes was you know he just lost it about this call in the handshake with Allen after the game. He sounded like a big baby. But what was his point? His point was that shouldn't matter. You know, like we're doing these are these are great plays that should count. And the guy's got a toe past the line. But then again, I mean, I don't criticize the referee for calling that rules are rules.

And when it comes to the end zone toes are everything we've got to make sure that the heel came down before the toe and that's make or break the was it addison in chicago on the sideline where alan keenan allen yeah it was keenan oh no you know you mean his tips there were two toe incidents in chicago yes oh addison was tiptoeing down the sideline and they can't use that camera because there because the boundary cam literally it just never ever ends literally there's in 2024 a spokesperson on the screen telling you we don't have a boundary cam in every stadium so even though here we have evidence that a play should be overturned we can't do it but but only when it's a coach's challenge.

When it's an official's challenge, we can use the boundary cam. When it's the space ref, we can do whatever we want. When it's a coach's challenge, we can't. Listen to myself. I mean, what are these words? What is this? I mean, replay as just the ultimate Pandora's box, and you have all these injustices or whatever they are but

all of it all of it is a drag on the experience of watching and enjoying a game all of it yeah I think that that my biggest frustration with the whole thing well two of them number one is that the rules are different with every single crew how is that the case like you talk about that Kedarious Tony thing it can't be the only time that he only that cadarious tony thing it can't be the only time that he only that he lined up a foot back it can't just can't be i mean if you look at the offensive tackles when they've been called for it can't be the only time that they lined up like that tj watt lines up offside 10 times a game his head is across the line of scrimmage 10 times a game. Anybody care? That's what I'm saying.

So why all of a sudden is it an offensive tackle being a foot back and you're not calling something else? And then some groups call holding all the time. Some never call holding. And the team prepares for this. They know what the other – the refs – this is a factor of whether they're going to call you for holding or not so okay this week we're going to teach this technique but next week you could grab them it's like what the heck are we doing here and then the other thing is to just

not we've got space ref he's up there he's circling the universe in his satellite and he can see all the calls being wrong or right but but you can't ask him. You can only ask him certain things. Right. What if I, what if I, can I ask him something else? Like,

can, can the, can the real referee secretly without anyone knowing be like space ref? Was that a face mask? It was okay. Don't tell anyone. I asked you. Well,

it's the guy from Truman show. I think, I think it's Ed Harris up in a, like a, some sort of a invisible moon or something like this. And I think most fans, you know, you have to accept it and maybe even will sound like the announcers do on this, which is all of it's a good thing. Have you seen a measurement this year in the NFL? What you have now is when there's a play close to the first down, the side judge, the line judge run in, you see them reach for their belt and they click on the earpiece.

So somebody will tell them first down. And if that's the case, they go like this. There's no measurement. There's no discussion. It's just like, okay, that's a first down. There's no way space ref can know that in such little time, the bodies are still on the field, but keep the game moving. Everybody makes fun of us for the chains. So we're not going to have the chains anymore. Was it the Vikings game where a guy on the chain gang got hurt?

Maybe last week, I forget there was one game where that happened, but the guy's not being used anyway. So we're just going to, let's go. Come on, keep it moving. And really, almost no scrutiny. And, well, I guess the just give it to them game now is everywhere.

It is. People can look that one up. Just give it to them has become the norm. That's the sport. Just give it to them. We've got quite a, a Thursday slate for this week. Do you have some epic pick them for this one with, uh, the Thanksgiving day games, which you know what? I don't hate them. I mean, I hate the middle one, but Chicago, Detroit,

Miami, green Bay. It's not bad. We can, we've done a lot worse on Thanksgiving before. I'm very interested in Miami and Green Bay. I do not have a pick-em for you. I will have one, and I will show it to you before we get to 1230 Eastern Thursday. And who doesn't love Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving football, even when it's maybe not the best matchups? Giants-Dallas is really tough to do to a country at 4 o'clock, but that's what we've got. That's nap time.

That's perfect nap time. Or dinner time, maybe. Yeah, every time zone is different. On ADP chasing, I'm in the east. Davis is in the central time zone where you are, and then Pat Corain's in San Diego. And how football is so a part of the tradition and the routine on Thanksgiving.

But when you eat, kind of fit that in between games or whatever happens. I don't know. I thought this week was different because we have three games and even four. If you include Black Friday, we've got the Raiders and Chiefs on Friday. I think for starters, the most interesting thing is whether Chicago can keep up with Detroit, whether Detroit is just too good for everybody. And I want to think maybe yes, that the bears, I don't love Detroit defensively. I think they're fine, but I want to think that, you know, there's progress there with the new coordinator. It's been better. You watch that

game. I'm sure. were you there last week? I mean, closely, the Vikings-Bears. Oh, yeah, of course, yep. And you would have seen, I mean, Keenan Allen had a big day, and there's some life in the, I mean, a big comeback, but DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, to a lesser extent, Odunze, targets are decent. Bears offense coming to life there.

So in terms of pick them, I don't have specifics right now, but I would not be too shy about going with some hires when it came to Chicago. David Montgomery, as we speak here on Wednesday morning, I don't know his status for this game. He left the game against Indianapolis but was back on the sideline, and he hasn't been ruled out as far as I know. So that's important to know when you look at the Lions. The Giants might go to Drew Locke over Tommy DeVito

because DeVito hurt his arm, I guess, by maybe throwing too many passes in a sport where he's usually not asked to do anything like that. I don't know. Shouldn't make fun. But if Locke plays, that's kind of like Darnold or Winston is the better example, like sort of turning to Jameis Winston where you're going to get stuff.

I think you should get stuff if you get Drew Locke in this game against Dallas. And, you know, CeeDee Lamb is kind of all that Dallas has that's been interesting. And I really like, from a kind of a betting standpoint, and I'm interested in how you feel about this, Miami at Green Bay, Matthew, temperature is in the 20s. The exact, almost entire reputation of the Dolphins is cold weather, forget it. Last year, they're scoring 70 points in the heat in September. They wither down the stretch, Kansas City, Buffalo, these games.

They've won their last couple, maybe three to get into the race and green Bay at eight and three Thanksgiving night, Lambeau field chance of weather, wind, cold. There are three point favorite. That's it. Like the betters are on Miami. Miami's a different team with tua i mean a wildly different team they're i mean if they have him all year long are they eight and three i mean they're they're that caliber of football team right so i think that's probably a big part of it

i also never know what to do with that stuff with the the guy can't play in the cold it's like he can't until he can i mean sometimes he was not just playing in the cold against kansas city he was playing kansas city whose defense essentially won them the super bowl last year more than their quarterback and i don't recall patrick mahomes having the game of the century either like both teams have to play in it uh i don't remember where jordan love is from but a lot of nfl players are not from green bay wisconsin so i'm not sure i've never really known how to make some correlation it's like the los angeles raiders come to buffalo lose 51 to 3 and forever in my

life i'm supposed to believe that a team in los Angeles could not possibly come to Buffalo but Green Bay the Lambeau thing it hasn't quite been as epic as it was with Favre believe it or not because it's Favre you know another another one of these is when Atlanta with Michael Vick went to Lambeau in the playoffs like they'll lose and they won easily right you never know I'm the same way as you on this I just think it just I don't know percentages or where the money is I'm not bet QL but it when I see Miami plus three at eight and three Packer team on Thanksgiving night that says something to me that maybe the Dolphins are the right side in terms of underdog hires and lowers HN I think would be the one for me.

Waddle popped last week. Maybe Tyreek Hill. I don't know the number, but maybe he's somebody that's getting a little bit sort of slept on at this point. The Packers, we've talked about it many times, their passing game. How do you know where to turn week to week? Dontavian Wicks, who's giving you like zeros this year, is still getting targets. Like he's still somebody that I think matters to them. They just haven't had the injury or whatever has needed to happen. Christian Watson has kind of stayed on the field and given you some spike

weeks. Jacobs with three touchdowns last week. I don't know what you do about that, but I'd want to lean against that and maybe pick one of these Packers guys tucker craft one of these packer guys who probably comes in pretty cheaply if you will when it comes to the yardage totals yeah it's still it's always going to be kind of jayden reed for me as the guy that if you ask me like who i think can have that big game over everybody else but uh they've stayed a little bit true to, we're going to run and we're going to use a lot of different weapons. The Jacobs thing is another one where in the off season, you go, I don't know why they would move on from Jones and get Jacobs, but then it's pretty good. And they are as,

they are also as creative as anyone on the run. When you have a coach who really deeply cares about the run game, you can see it versus a coach that doesn't like all right just run outside zone or something and then get me back to my past concepts not that i would know anything about that covering kevin o'connell but uh wouldn't be you no that's not definitely not who i'm talking about um although aaron jones top 10 running back so uh what a day though thanksgiving to play on Underdog Fantasy and use your code purple to sign up, claim your special pick,

first-time deposit offer, $1,000 in bonus cash. I have been doing a lot of the pick-ems for $5 to see if I can win like $100-something, and I won $0.80. So you could be me. You could revel in that type of success. You know what else they have there, by the way, is playoff best ball, which I think to most casual players, you know, fantasy fans, you're like, what, what, how could you have that yet? I mean, it's week 13, but that's the point. They've had three different tournaments running for a while maybe two weeks

where you're drafting teams for the playoffs really fun interesting format without knowing yet who those teams are and I'll again refer to Davis Maddock from ADP Chasing who said when it comes to those this is just generalizing but bet or pick the teams, pick the players on the teams right now that you know will make it. The way you win those tournaments is to have players on the teams that make and win the Super Bowl. So Indianapolis or Arizona, you might want to wait and see if when we get closer, there'll still be these tournaments. Underdog never sleeps. I mean, there'll be these tournaments all the way up until the end of the regular season. Maybe then is when you take your shots on the six or seven seeds.

But right now, I think, you know, I talked to Ross Tucker again yesterday, and he and I were, maybe we all are kind of on the same page. Aaron Schatz on Monday was on with me on WGR. There might be, I don't know, Minnesota might have something to say about this, but five teams that can win the Super Bowl, maybe Minnesota would be number six. We're trying to decide still if that's the case. That was a main topic on a show yesterday. Like, are we ready to talk about this?

Are we ready to talk about it? And the answer is, well, they've got Arizona, they've got Atlanta, and you've got Seattleattle and you've got green like there's a lot of good teams here coming up so beat some of them and prove that you belong in that conversation if you get to 12 then i think the answer is yes and if you get to plus 100 point differential the answer is yes if you don't then i'll probably say it's likely going to be the lions or somebody else but at least you won't be negative like two years ago. Yes.

That's still a little bit fresh. It's frustrating that it gets that comparison. That people, well, you know, we were this good in 2022. It's totally different. It is a completely different situation. Anyway, well, we will be back next week to see what happens and break it all down as always. So thank you, Mike Shope, for your time. And everybody have a very enjoyable Thanksgiving.

Thanks, Mike. Bye. Thank you.