Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Are we projecting a Sam Darnold bounce back?

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

Matthew Coller and Mike Schopp talk about Sam Darnold's potential for a turnaround and what the Rams game might mean for his future Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Mike Shope for the Purple Insider Fantasy Shope. And Mike, we got playoffs, which for many people means, well, my fantasy team is done and so forth, but not for us. I was just drafting a fantasy team for a wild card weekend. I saw. Yes. And I was, you were seeing my deep process, which is, huh? I think this guy should be fine.

Let's pick him. That's how it kind of went. And I ended up with a bunch of bills. So I'm going to need them to outperform the Denver defense in Buffalo. Don't blame me. You started that before I showed up. I didn't ask for help. So we could get the hard critique eventually when we reveal the team that I have.

It's not a big squad. It's not a diverse squad, but I like it anyway. But let's begin, though, not a big squad. It's not a diverse squad, but I like it anyway. But let's, uh, begin though with Vikings and Rams. And I've got a bunch of the underdog fantasy pick thems up the show, obviously presented by underdog fantasy as always. And I've got a bunch of the pick thems up and I just want to talk about these. I want to talk about our expectations for Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, the star players in this game, because that's where it will be determined.

But how much do you make of Sam Darnold's performance against Detroit as having predictive power going into this weekend? Well, this is a question I would rather hear you answer than me, but I'll go first. And I want to say not a ton. I mean, there are good days and bad days in the league. I want to trust what Darnold has proven this year. I mean, there were times as we got past Thanksgiving or even Halloween

where like, okay, when is the bubble going to burst? And it really didn't. And Detroit, it's so easy to get attached to the most recent narrative. Like what happened last week in Detroit, it had a few weeks where they couldn't stop people. They had their whole defense and IR. Everybody realized that Buffalo put up 48. Green Bay was in the thirties and likes and like okay well the Lions are really not quite the team they were and they got Anzalone back who just I mean in hockey once in a while maybe more

in the 80s you would have a somebody with Dino Cicerelli would slash somebody and like they would be somebody would press charges and I thought Anzalone had the kind of game on Hawkinson where Hawkinson could have I don't't know, sued him or something like that. I was just so, so physical. And that happened. So Darnold cracked in that spot, I guess I'd have to say, but that doesn't mean it's over. Now it's L.A. who he's played. And this is it for me.

And this is probably, this is not the question you asked me. And this is, I'm guessing, not the question you want me to fixate on for our conversation but it's such an interesting moment right now for them and him as to what happens if he goes nine for 30 against the Rams he's going to free agency I think and I don't know we have many of the same you might know better but we might have some of the the same conversations aboutarnold as ever, like this year didn't happen. But if they win, which they didn't do a couple of years ago when they had that kind of fluky season and the Giants beat them. And like, this is the moment for Minnesota and it's a beatable team. You're a favorite on the road off that loss.

This is big. It's even being a favorite means you sort of should do it. And so now we're at this point with Sam Darnold, which like, okay, well, we kind of expect him to bounce back and even win. And that'd be great for him. That might be what the Vikings, you know, in terms of their future, of course, for the present, but are sort of, you know, hoping for, I don't know if that's, that matters. It's just, this is such a big game and playoffs are always big, but they're bigger for some teams and players and others. This is

like a career defining or a career making maybe better put opportunity for him. Yeah. And that's something that I've been trying to figure out how much I want to like put that on the headline. Do I need the big movie voice guy to say, Sam Darnold, his career was at a crossroads like, or is this more of the decision has probably been made. And if he has a tough game, well, he's got 16 or 15 other games that he played this year that put them in this position that you have to weigh heavier than one performance.

But if it is back to back and it's brutal performances and it's a complete collapse, I know this NFL people are just as reactionary as you and I, and everybody at home on their couch. They are not immune to overreacting to football, just the same way that the Vikings brought back Kirk cousins in 2019, brought him back to 2020 and kept Mike Zimmer because they want to play off game in new Orleans. And they decided that that was proof that Kirk could win in the playoffs and

so forth. I remember them talking about that at the combine. Well, he showed us in that game that he gets like, what the guys overtime game too. Like it's so fickle and they won the coin flip. And if drew breeze wins the coin flip, maybe he scores and you know,

so whatever, but that's, that is how a lot of football is decided in this world. I would have a tough time seeing Sam Darnold having a performance that badly because a lot of times in the NFL, when you play your absolute worst, everybody goes to work with a different type of approach the next week. They fix the things. That's why they're the best at what they do is that they're good at fixing stuff.

And you know this from the gambling world. If a team has just kind of been down bad in a game that they weren't supposed to be, pretty good idea to bet on them for the next week if they have a good coaching staff. They're going to bounce back for that next week. And I think that with Sam Darnold, he played really well against the Rams defense the last time. It was the Vikings defense that actually let them down. And he's been good at bouncing back. He throws an interception. Well, he's going to lead a touchdown drive the next time down. And the other, and the other thing I can't help but think

is when I watched the game back and I watched it through the coach's tape and all that, there were several plays where you said, Hey, you know, Sam Darnold, you got to make that throw, man. That guy's open. That's a big gain. That's whatever. There were also a lot of plays that were either kind of random or Jefferson drops a touchdown, which never happens, or the left guard gets beat instantly, or, you know, a number of different things that on a week to week basis, just don't happen

all together all at once that happened in that lions game. And I'm not going to throw out the green Bay game from the week before or, or the game in Seattle or the game against Atlanta or the, you know, et cetera, et cetera, all through the second half of the season where he won nine games in a row. And now we're like, is this guy even good? I mean, it just seems like such classic overreaction football stuff. And at the same time, if it is a nine for 30, if it's a total melt and they lose by 30 points, I think they will walk out of Los Angeles and say, you know what?

We just need a lot more and we're going to have to do something different here. That's probably true. Yeah. Again, I defer to you. I mean, I don't know if the question is, in terms of the Vikings' decision, ultimately, if there is one that's close, is he good? Their bet is more complicated than that. I mean, the existence of McCarthy, if he weren't there, it'd be easy.

Teams would – it'd be easy. It wouldn't be interesting to talk about. They would there, it'd be easy. Teams would, it'd be easy. It wouldn't be interesting to talk about. They would just, he'd be back. But the investment in McCarthy makes you wonder, and you and everybody else were sort of like, this guy is really promising. He looks good. The preseason where he got hurt.

So that makes it different. Rookie deal, everything like that. This is our window. Jefferson is signed. You have all these different facets of that. If Darnold has the same game, not that he had in Detroit, but that he had in LA back in October, what's that? So that was 18 for 25, 240 and two, three sacks, no picks.

They are in the game until the end. There's the face mask in the end zone that doesn't get called. I mean, it was a back-and-forth game. The Vikings were up, but it was the Rams mostly in the lead in the second half. If that happens again, if the Rams score 30 points on Flores and Darnold is pretty good, but they lose, the quarterback narrative stuff, I mean, we're just scratching the surface. It gets way stupider than what we've said

already like you really have to win here and a 10 to 9 win might do more for Darnold than a 30 to 27 loss or something like that and I don't know that's not right if they have if he has a 300 yard game three touchdowns one interception late that seals it for la you're going to be talking about the interception all offseason so i don't know i mean i would these are all questions i would ask you about what you think they'll do uh they can definitely win here i mean the rams are one of i think the three weakest teams in the playoffs i think it's the Steelers, the Texans, and the Rams. And interestingly, the Texans and the Rams are home in the first round. So that's nice for them, but not strong divisions. I think Miami went to LA mid to late season

Monday night football and kind of won easily. So the Rams are scary because of McVay. They're healthy at this point. They brazenly took last week off, basically. McVay didn't even call the plays in that game. I mean, they just sort of like, we don't care. And I didn't mind that for them because they had played, they had beaten Minnesota, and they went to overtime with Detroit in week one, and they played a strong playoff game against Detroit last year.

They decided it was worth it for them to sort of give away the Seattle game, which they almost won anyway with Garoppolo. If you get it, you get it. And you're playing Washington, but this way you're playing teams. You're very familiar with, you've had success against your, a Superbowl winning coach. Like it's the closest spread of the weekend. And I think that kind of makes it the most interesting wildcard game. I think McVay was smart to do this. I don't think that the gap between the Vikings and a team like Washington is enormous. I was just talking earlier this morning to our buddy Aaron Schatz about what his analytics say., I think that his point is reasonable when he says that the Vikings, everything on paper says you're a Superbowl contender, but they don't quite say

that you're Peyton Manning's 14 win team, right? That you are one of the all time great 14 win teams. You're more of just a good team that maybe probably should have won 11 or 12 instead of 14 this year. And if you look at the Rams and the injuries that they had early in the season, especially Puka Nakua, once they got him back, they went seven and two in games that they cared about after they got Puka Nakua back. He is a massive part of their offense. They have a defensive line that could cause a ton of havoc for the Vikings and for Sam Darnold. I think it is a very even matchup when you consider that the Vikings just had to play that physical game in Detroit where Detroit just beat them up like the whole game. They just beat them up. That was a back alley fight for them that the Vikings were

not ready for. And so they're coming in beat up. The Rams have been chilling at the beach. And now, you know, this is two teams in different spots here going into this game, which I think matters. But just to circle back to your Darnold point, the answer is that I don't know, and they might not know exactly what they're going to do still. I think that what they have is probably paths. So if you're bringing back Darnold, you're going to do it in a certain way, which may be the franchise tag. It may be a short-term contract. They also know how J.J. McCarthy's knee is.

They also are probably aware that J.J. McCarthy has thrown about 400 passes since hitting puberty in football, and none of them have been in the NFL, which is a lot to ask for somebody to come in. But to your point, if the offensive line gets crushed and the defense and the corners get destroyed and they lose 35 to 21, they'll probably walk out and go, this roster just isn't good enough to win a Superbowl. And need corners we need guards we need everything around the quarterback and how are we going to do it um which you know i think a lot of people think that's impossible to do it's not but still like it is more tricky to do to go into free agency and

rebuild all of those things because they don't have a lot of recent draft picks to lean on so it is there's a lot of moving parts to it and i think that the decision is probably largely made at this point but it can be influenced i think by the way that this ends up playing out we could just we almost all already do talk endlessly about like the sort of the the randomness and the variables that shape these things. They're in the toughest division ever this year. I mean, an 11-win team finished third. So if you don't have that, you're one game away from

or just one Detroit slip-up away from the one seed and a bye, and nobody's even asking these questions about Darnold yet you know it's more just like what what an accomplishment but that didn't happen in the AFC Kansas City recognizing that the three Super Bowl wins already and what that represents but Kansas City was really never the best looking team this year at all they go to 15 and one lay down in Denver, 15 and two. That's incredible. And they get that by, and what's that worth? If you know that they're going to play Houston or the chargers in the first,

I kind of like the chargers in that matchup, if it's that, but still like, what an advantage and the way it's set up right now, the NFL went to the seventh playoff team that nobody wanted. Nobody was ever clamoring for that. It was just more like, we're going to go more, more, more. We're adding a week 18. We're adding a seventh playoff team. Nobody wanted that.

The advantage of that buy is massive, and you've got in the Chiefs a team that really didn't look as good as the Ravens this year or even the Bills, but they got it, and that really tilts things in their favor, or at least evens it. The Lions really were that team all year and had beaten Minnesota earlier on the road in a close game. They get there now, and they look like they're back as the team to beat,

I think, with the coupling of who they are and that advantage that they earned by winning Sunday. Just to touch on your point about the randomness and the small sample sizes that football is shaped on. I was thinking of just some examples, but how about the Packers with Aaron Rogers and Jordan love. And, uh, remember in that season in what was it? 2022 where the Packers are struggling kind of the whole year and they need that one win against Detroit to get into the playoffs. But there, there's a world where Detroit fails on a fourth down there and the Packers get the ball back. Rogers leads them to a tremendous victory, goes into the playoffs, wins a playoff game or two. And they say, ah, we can't really go to Jordan love now. Cause we're still in our winning window

with Aaron Rogers. There's like 10,000 of these through NFL history. I mean, even, you know, poor, poor Alex Smith here. Marcus Mariota throws a touchdown to himself. I think that they were going to Mahomes no matter what. But if Alex Smith wins that game and they win another one the next week, are they going to Mahomes? There's just so many of these throughout history. The Bills did, after making the playoffs, josh allen and decide to go uh in that direction but i don't think tyrod taylor ever played at the level of sam darnold but there's

just a lot of butterfly effects that could or might not take place depending on the way that they're approaching this if they are concerned about throwing in a quarterback with no experience next year with expectations of playing the NFC North, they might just be thinking we have to keep Sam Darnold and develop McCarthy because he had a lost year for this year, which factors in as well. It's at the same time, the most maddening and beautiful thing about the NFL. I just like every year has some of these, you're right. Thousands is right. Like every year has some of these in Buffalo for the last 25 years. Everybody wants to tell you that if not for the music city miracle,

which was an actual play that didn't have to count, but it was close. If not for that, that the bills were going to the Superbowl, just like Tennessee did because the rest of the conference was so weak. That's a makeable argument, but it didn't happen. So who wants to listen to anybody sort of saying that like every Minnesota and Buffalo alike have these kinds of things over the years or like, Oh, make a field goal, right? Gary Anderson, Scott Norwood, make a field goal. Um, who knows then? I mean, in Buffalo's case, we know, cause that would have been it, but still that the Vikings Denver game too soon. That's the game we all wanted.

Anyway, that's, that's what it is. Um, and you have to be able to overcome that much easier said than done. Darnold has a chance to do that. So does Baker Mayfield. I mean,

very similarly guys who went through Carolina and we're just kind of, kind of punching bags at that point. Here they are in spots where they're playing. I mean, Mayfield's favored, too, in his game against Washington. He's had a phenomenal season. He's already gotten the contract. But in terms of rewriting your history, your career, your legacy, all that stuff, it's all happening right now.

It happens in roger goodell's nfl playoffs uh so let's talk about this football game here with the rams and the vikings sam darnold's higher and lower number on underdog fantasy which uh promo code purple if you haven't already to play along with us is 268.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns. And I just, you know, we probably screwed up saying, Hey, hit those hires on the Detroit game. And it didn't turn out to be that way with the way he played and the offense played.

But this just feels like if you're going to beat the Rams in this game, they're probably going to score some points. They're probably going to move the ball that Sam Darnold will have to go higher on these numbers, especially 1.5 touchdowns. That's the one I think they can't run in the red zone. They refuse to run in the red zone, but even when they do, it looks terrible. Clearly there's volatility to trying to throw it in every single time, but that's just what they have to do. So if he ends up with less than 1.5 touchdowns, you end up with no playoff win and your season is over. That's how I look at this. So I would bang the higher on this one, just because they're not scoring touchdowns in any other way. Okay. Dance with who brung you,

right? Isn't that the expression? I mean, this is it for him. This is it for O'Connell for this year. You gotta just go for it. And that's what Minnesota's brand is. So I like that philosophy, that kind of thinking. He threw two touchdown passes in the first meeting to Oliver and Shurfield, I believe both in the first meeting to Oliver and Shurfield, I believe, both in the first quarter of that game. I wonder how you like the receiver-corner kind of matchups in this game because Poole owned them. That was when he wasn't supposed to play, and he was amazing in that game, assumed healthy.

Now, like, should that happen again? Not to jump ahead, but Jefferson in the same way, man, so close so many times in Detroit. And you could just see the frustration on Jefferson's face all night about how it was just like this far away always. It's reasonable, maybe even right to think that that goes the other way this week against a softer matchup because it's always been Minnesota's job one to feed him. So if that, if he goes for 150 or some sort of Justin Jefferson game that we're all kind of almost counting on, then you get, you get there with Darnold's numbers. Folks, it's a wonderful time of year in football, and there's

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The playbook also has lots of different mini games like word searches and bingo, where you check off all the different things that happen in a football game. It's only $49.99 at futurefans.com and you can use the code purple to get 10% off. That's futurefans.com code and you can use the code PURPLE to get 10% off. That's futurefans.com, code PURPLE, and unlock a lifetime of memories together. The Rams do not have a great secondary, and I do think that Jefferson has, even for himself, some redemption.

It's all focused on Sam Darnold. Jefferson is so unbelievably good at football that when he has a horrendous game on the biggest stage, we're like, ah, well, but he deserves criticism for that game. I mean, he dropped the touchdown that could have changed the game. Darnold on that play actually makes an awesome throw right to the back of the end zone back end line. It's there. I mean, leave your feet for nine inches and catch the ball. And he just doesn't. And then there's another third down. That is a game changer that he drops as well, that he never ever drops. And so he gets the benefit of the doubt, but he, I think he got overly amped up for that game. I think that the crowd got to everybody on that team,

and they freaked out a little bit, and it wasn't just him. It was all of them. If anything, now you've seen that. Now you've felt a playoff atmosphere. For a lot of you, you haven't spent a lot of time here in your careers. Jefferson has no road playoff games in his career, so this will be a first but at least they got a little of that experience I think that that will help them and the fact that the Rams just

don't have great secondary players will help them a lot now how about Stafford what do you think of Matthew Stafford's season because if you drafted him in fantasy you'd be like oh that was kind of disappointing I think that the actual watching of it, though, he played pretty well. Yeah, me too. They, I don't want to say they paced themselves this year because they were never the favorite. They, they stole a couple of wins. The game against San Francisco, I remember early in the season, the Buffalo game was a shootout back and forth and they won enough of those games to be, I mean, to have clinched the division before week 18. So it's sort of easy. I think Stafford,

where I'm at anyway, is like right in line, which is they've won a championship. You have to be respectful, if not afraid, like the Rams have earned a certain respect here with what's happened over the last three, four years. And I don't see anything with the Rams lately or at all this year that tells me that he's different or that they're different. Like they've, they've had those games. The Minnesota game was one, the Buffalo game was one. That's, those are the games we watched.

And, you know, I think Stafford is probably still Stafford. So yeah, I mean, um, depends on what kind of game script you want to write here. I like your point you just made. I was going to say it too. The fact that the Vikings had Detroit, I think, should maybe calm them down for L.A. The crowd is usually, it's probably a Vikings crowd. Playoffs can be different.

You know, those regular season games, everybody plans ahead and buys tickets and flights six months ahead. But still, the Rams do not really have home stadium. Also, there are terrible scenes in LA. I know you've got family connections there. I don't know just what that's going to mean in the next few days, but devastating fires and just really awful scenes from that part of the country um we'll talk assuming that the game goes on as it was scheduled to on on monday night so

i think you know stafford is probably still the same guy we're used to which makes it a challenge it does his uh higher lower number here is 238.5 which if they do that if he goes lower than that he either had a really really bad night or they won which is a weird dynamic but i i think that that's true right if they if they get ahead in the game and they're playing defense and he's playing smart with the football and throwing underneath passes and completions and long drives, which we know he can do. I don't know that anybody I've ever seen, maybe Randall Cunningham would be an example of this, but has altered his game as he's gone along from just wild out of control gunslinger. Maybe, I don't know, maybe John Elway had to do this at the end to this guy plays some sharp,

smart quarterback, and it's just really impressive. So I think that he's going to want to do a lot of underneath stuff, a lot of long drives, not too much risk taking and see if they can hang on to the football night, which makes me want to go lower on this number. But I also think it's a really good number for if he's in this range they're they're probably having a good game yeah uh that's lower is always brave right like because these are the numbers are pumped up pretty good and it's there's always an argument for it but it's a little bit more takes a little bit more courage to go lowers, to go unders in these prop, in the prop world. I know that

Kyron Williams is somewhere in the 80s for his rushing number here, and that's also a pretty positive game script. They lost Blake Corum, the rookie out of Michigan, to a broken arm last week. He would have been the compliment to Kyron, but McVay doesn't

do a lot of that anyway. So I guess I sooner see a high scoring game. The total is going to be what high forties, um, yeah, 47 and a half. I sooner like the higher, the over when it comes to that, uh, indoors with what we've already talked about with Minnesota, the Rams being healthy, taking last week off. That's kind of where I'm at. I know last week happened, and that didn't happen for Minnesota, except for Gibbs.

That didn't happen last week. But I do kind of like the idea of a back-and-forth game here. I think so, too. Kyron Williams, 84.5 is his number. And that's another one. There's another way to look at this as just a fun. If this guy does this, if he hits the higher number, what happens or the lower number? And for Kyron Williams, if he is lower than that, that means it's gone well for the Vikings and their top rushing defense has held strong, which it did not against Detroit for the entire game. It did enough to make things

interesting, but not as the floodgates broke. But Kyron Williams, I think is very valuable to them for staying on the field, which if there's one way to beat the Vikings, I think it's to wear down their defense. They've done it all year. They've got an older group that's played a ton of snaps. They've been healthy, which also means that they haven't had, oh, this guy had, you know, broken hand and missed three weeks or something. And his body's a little bit more fresh. They don't have that. Like all their guys have been on the field all year long. And I think if you're grinding away at them throughout this game with Kyron Williams, that that could be a good strategy for the Rams. It could, but I don't love the player. I mean, in terms of fantasy, you get paid off because he just gets the ball constantly. Like his 84 yards,

if that's the number, will come on 25 carries, something like that, which again, you don't want to hear that the Rams RB1 had 25 carries in this game for trying to predict the outcome of the game. But he had the extra day here too, which helps. I doubt the Vikings get gashed. He doesn't really break anything. I like both teams to throw the ball with some success or at least with some intent in this game. Whether the Rams, Rams would be the team of the two

where I would think they'd sooner have more trouble because they're just not as good. So I don't love Kyron over, but he gets so much volume. This was the debate about him last two years in the off season in terms of his draft value is well, the efficiency isn't really there, but McVay loves his RB one. And if he stays healthy, look at the snap share. It's been massive. Um, which that makes, that's how, you know, an example of how these numbers are built. Well,

like they know what they're doing 84 and well, like they know what they're doing. 84 and a half. They know what they're doing. Okay. One more, just from this game with star players. If you were to be forced to pick a higher number on Puka Nakua at 90.5 or on Justin Jefferson at 88.5, which might as well just be the same exact number. Which one of those players would you prefer? I'd have to say Jefferson, but not with like so much conviction because I could see Puka having another big game here too. Like Cooper Kopp has really tailed off. And that's good and bad for this because it means more Puka, but it also means the Rams are kind of limited

um if Kopp isn't right I don't know I wouldn't want to necessarily bet against him but the fewer options you have that's what makes Minnesota such a treat in terms of fantasy this year with Addison and Hawkinson and Aaron Jones out of the backfield there's a nailer it was Demarcus Robinson I think who caught two touchdown passes in the the win over minnesota back in october but yeah i think i'd like higher on both guys actually i do too uh nukua has to be their passing game though it seems a little bit more than jefferson has to be the vikings passing game because you could see addison or hawkinson uh i think it's just one week really does something to you, the NFL, when it doesn't go well.

Because going into the game, I looked at Hawkinson and his, like what was his numbers if it was projected out to 17 weeks? And it was something like 900 yards going into last week. And I thought, well, that seems about right for where he would have been this year. And then last week, I think Darnold goes two for eight targeting him. And then you go and wait, do they, do they have a problem that they can't find? Like, this is what the football does to you, but it hasn't quite been the same as it was

where cousins would just work the ball to Hawkinson constantly. There's a little bit of a different chemistry between Hawkinson and Darnold. And I think a little bit less on the, I'm going to go underneath and check down to the tight end than there was with Kirk Cousins. So that's an interesting one as well. I love the eight targets though. And Anzalone again was all over him.

That's not happening here. Is his number going to be in the forties? I like higher. Yeah. Yeah. His number is 39.5. So, yeah, that seems very possible. I got to say, just my mistake on not factoring how much Anzalone would make a difference to that game.

That's leading up to it. I was like, oh, well, you know, it's just one guy coming back, but their defense is still banged up. Also, I forgot, and I shouldn't have, that when Z'Darrius Smith needs to be great, Z'Darrius Smith is great. He was for the Vikings. He was for the Packers. And he'll kind of chill out for some weeks and then just go crazy. He did that against the Vikings. You know who was great this year, too, is Jared Verse.

Yes. Yep. Probably a top five to seven player at that position, which, you know, who was not great last week against Zedary Smith was Cam Robinson. And that matchup there could be a major determining factor on where this thing goes. Yeah, you better hope not. Like that's what you say. Or what did we talk about when the Vikings got Robinson after the Derrissaw injury? It was like, good against the run, but I don't know. Has that been what you've seen? Because they might be vulnerable there.

It's the opposite. He's a decent pass protector, but really terrible in the run blocking in comparison to his peers. Much better than me at it, but not one of the better run blockers in the run blocking in comparison to his peers, much better than me at it, but not one of the better run blockers in the league. And the pass protection is a strength and that's been a high grade for him from PFF for his whole career. But there is a factor with him that he wasn't on the team all year. And what you see happening and their left guard has some problems with this too is teams are running games at those guys. So they're running, you know, defensive tackles to the outside, defensive ends

inside, and there's confusion there. And they're running some different pressures that try to get those guys on islands. So the Vikings can't really help them with Josh Oliver or with a running back. And he's not Christian Derrissaw. He's human. He's it's like when the Vikings had Riley reef out there, like he's a guy, he can play in the league, but this is not your $30 million a year type of tackle that you just set it and forget it. I mean, they have to pay some attention over there and that's where Oliver could be a bigger factor in this game. Uh, you know, over on that side, I think that he's going to need to do a lot of help. Um, I want to just, um, get your opinion on one other game in the weekend and I want you

to pick the game. What is the most, what is the most intriguing, fascinating, breathtaking spellbinding game of the weekend that is not vikings and rams they're all so interesting um in buffalo of course we're talking we're talking about the the bills broncos but i'd admit that we're talking more about the ravens this week so far than the Broncos, which, you know, that might not be a great sign. I think the Ravens, I'll go with the Baltimore game because I am not as confident as people I hear and read

that the Steelers will just be, have been so bad that they can't hang in this game. I accept it looks right to me too, that Baltimore has arguably been the top, the most efficient team in the NFL. The 6.8 yards per play is crazy this year. And now after half a season of their defense is bad, you've got Orlovsky on Saturday in the game against Cleveland saying it's the best in the league right now with the changes they've made to the secondary, which, if correct, makes Baltimore probably at least the team

to beat in the AFC. But they have the Pittsburgh Steelers of all teams. They have to convince themselves. Lamar Jackson has to convince himself on Saturday night that that's actually the Bears out there or some NFC team that he always beats. I think Jackson, who I love as a player in the playoffs or even in regular season games against Pittsburgh,

like the bigger spots, gets tight. And I wouldn't want to play Pittsburgh first if I were he. I just feel like that's a little bit of a trap. It's possible that Pittsburgh is so down bad that they just cannot hang anymore. It'll look like the regular season game that they just played around Christmas. But Jackson fumbled on the first drive in that game. The Steelers punted and the Ravens punt returner fumbled on that play. There was a third Ravens fumble. They just recovered them all. And they also got a Russell

Wilson fumble in near the end zone. And I don't know, like these kinds of things come up. They're pretty fluky. So Baltimore needs to be right. What other people have said this too, but last year that AFC championship game, I'm sure I brought this up to you as we've been together for so many weeks. They get the opening kickoff. They're the one seed. They're the boss. First play, two-yard run.

Second play, Jackson gets out to the right and looks behind him and slides. Like, all right, I'm worried now. And they scored 10 points points so that can happen to the Ravens the Ravens and the Bills are so parallel with like sort of what they have in front of them here they should meet in the divisional round which would be an incredible match up there for the right to go to Kansas City if that's how it plays out but I'm just not confident that the Ravens will be on it and they're not going to have Zay Flowers, which is no small thing. So, um, again, maybe Pittsburgh is just shot. That's what's

happened last year. It happened in 2021 when they were the, they've been the worst team in the playoffs three of the last four years and they've looked it and if that's the case then I mean Pickens is just sort of running in circles and everybody um but I would be really impressed if Baltimore gets to 30 points in that game because I think they're just they they have to show me anyway that they can get out of their own heads. And that can happen through Derrick Henry. He could save everybody, but, you know, he's 31. Like, that's just, we're talking about four games at this point forward to reach the goal. Really interesting psychological matchup for me.

Yeah, and I think it's the way you approach that is a game that we all have just gone, okay, well, Baltimore wins. And then let's talk about other games. And you're like, well, let's hold on because every one of these wildcard weekends has some result that we're pretty shocked by. I was there in new Orleans when the Vikings beat the saints, when they were supposed to be a team that goes to the super bowl and the Vikings shock them in new Orleans. There's always one every year where we just can't believe what result we're walking out of. And if Baltimore is seasoned, I mean, you talk about the debate shows

the next day. If Baltimore's season ended in Pittsburgh, oh my gosh. I was watching a game from 03 the other day with the Colts and the Broncos and Peyton Manning hadn't yet won a playoff game and the whole intro they did this big peyton manning his head his playoff meltdowns and they so show vanderjett kicking it off into the stands in the against miami and there's this whole can he actually win a playoff game and then they win 41 to 3 yeah just destroy denver in the game uh but it's it would be far from the first all-time great quarterback to have that follow him around

dan marino was certainly that way and even john elway and until he got it done uh it was always the canal way really win the big one um? Well, it's his seventh year now. You know, and Allen too. Allen doesn't have, he hasn't had the particular individual failures in the playoffs, but they're still like, they've made the third round once after winning the division five years in a row. So it's kind of the same thing.

You know, if Baltimore does play its best, they'll win maybe easily, and that could rev them up for the rest of it. There was a look-ahead line, if it is Baltimore at Buffalo, that the Ravens would be favored here. Think of the Bills' season that they just had. But for that to be true, it says a lot. The oddsmakers and the pundits, if you will, Matthew, have always been pro Ravens.

Like the Ravens have been like the darlings of that world and the Eagles for like the past five, six years. So what's the most what game am I most curious about? I mean, I like them all, but I'm curious to see on Saturday night if the Ravens look like they should. I was going to go Green Bay and Philadelphia. I'm not a medical health expert, but Jalen Hurts coming off of a concussion. They do not have the best passing game, which usually is what drives the success. And they also teeter on about to fall apart. When you have to create a specific dance after a touchdown to show the world we're best friends something's not right there and and weirdly as good as they've been

it hasn't been i it's it's odd to say they're a great team right but there have been all these kind of moments with them where you go is is it quite as good as, as I think it is, or as the world thinks it is. And also green Bay, another fascinating subject is they lose against the Vikings and then they go to Chicago and they blow that game and they're playing Malik Willis or whatever. So throw that one out. But before that, the Packers had made this argument that they were a top three team in the NFC. And our DVOA type statistics had put them all the way toward the top of the league with the way that they had played. They played within three points of Detroit, probably could have won that game. And they're going there to Philly, where Philly, I'm just not sure where they are at this moment at the quarterback position.

That one also has a big effect potentially on the Vikings and what they end up doing for next week. But that's the one I I'm most intrigued by because I think everyone is written in Philadelphia. Well, you know, Christian Watson's out, they're not going to be able to do it, but I think green Bay with their team is a little bit built to handle Philadelphia. Yeah, I don't disagree. That's a game where we talked about Minnesota and L.A.

in the context of the underdog pick'ems, and we talked about a lot of hires, so that's where I ended up, and you in a couple cases too. That's one where I would be the opposite. I could see Philadelphia wanting to lean into Barkley and Green Bay's defense is good and that doesn't really work out. And then Philadelphia's roster is so great. I mean, they just have so many good players that love, you know, sometimes gets in his own way,

maybe two as good as he can be. And I'm 13 all in the fourth. Like that's the kind of game I see there. maybe two as good as he can be. And I'm 13 all in the fourth. Like that's the kind of game I see there. Yeah. This weekend is fantastic. It is. It's the best. I will thank the national football league for putting the Vikings on Monday

so I can watch the games. That'll be great. Let me, before we wrap here, Mike, let me show you the draft that I did when we were just getting logged on here. So this was, let me now go to here. Yep.

Okay. So here is the full look at the draft. So this is not a tournament. Again, this is a self-contained 16 league right i mean this is the uh the wildcat yes the wildcat like three bucks yeah you're just trying to beat these other five other five blokes yes exactly for the highest of high stakes uh anyway so uh this is on underdog fantasy obviously which is the presenter of this here show and the best place to play fantasy sports and the tremendous app uh that is very easy to use so

if you want to play along with any of our pickums or jump into a quick fantasy league for the weekend this is how easy it is to do that i did it uh and you can sign up using the code purple get your special pick first time deposit offer up to a thousand dollars bonus cash must be 18 or older terms apply concerned with your play call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org so uh what what do we think of my here draft mike i decided to go all in on bills players so. So I took Josh Allen with, I had the second overall pick. Then I decided to go at wide receiver with Ladd McConkie because I just don't see who else the ball is going to.

I know Quinton Johnston had 13 catches or whatever last week, which if you had week 18 in your fantasy leagues and stuck with that guy, then congratulations. He made a one-handed catch down the sideline, just unbelievable explosion from him. But Ladd McConkie is the guy that they're going to throw to give me some, give me some breakdown on, on what I did here. I do like the chargers to win one game. And if I were the chiefs, they would be the team. I would not want to face. Not that if you're the chiefs,

you would be necessarily afraid of anybody, but you started with Alan before I jumped on. I think in, again, this is not a format I play in, but I think in these, I would probably wait on quarterback. It's just that Alan can be such a beast that,

you know, you're as soon as you make your first pick you're kind of setting the table for the whole thing which as you said ended up meaning is it maybe two i see two other bills who was your last pick uh dalton kincaid is the one okay so yeah you're looking for we talked about it like i would have liked a little denver there but you really couldn't get it like sutton went, and then Mims also went. I like Mims for that because to get the points you might need from the Bills, you probably need Denver to push them a little bit.

And so somebody there would have been nice for this team. I like McConkie too. I think the Chargers are a little bit dangerous. And Devontae Smith seems like good value in the fourth round. I'm playing in, I've had a couple dozen drafts in the gauntlet and the mitten and the tournament stuff where there, just like we talked about in August in the different formats at Underdog, you're playing against thousands of other teams, literally. This is a one-week league you're in.

This is only the wildcard weekend in the, in the tournaments. It's the whole playoffs. So you're trying to, at the same time, build teams that can win a week, but also have a chance if you make the Superbowl week. And that's, you know, that's hard because of the bi-week and trying to, what do you want to do? They always tell you to sort of predict the brackets backwards. Who do you think the Super Bowl teams are?

And then just like with the NCAA tournament, try to figure it out from there. So that's a really interesting challenge. Underdog, there's just so many. I looked this morning and there are double digits, different price points and formats. This week, Saturday only, Sunday only, and then the tournament ones that are super popular and fill up really fast. So there's a lot to enjoy over there. That sounds like you should use the promo code purple at everybody.

Every week we talk about this. I wish I could deactivate my account and sign up again new as promo code purple, but it's a one-time thing well what someone should do then is do it for you because you've provided such great commentary throughout the season and we will continue to do that uh throughout the playoffs and but i gotta ask you to put it on record here who do you think is in the Superbowl? Oh, wow. Um, I love that you responded like you had never thought of it.

Like, no, I don't like these questions because I don't feel like it's, it's Superbowl. What are my chances of getting it right? Well, whatever, uh, whatever.

I, I think Kansas city because the advantage of turns into three weeks off between important games. And there's a pretty good chance they'll play a team in the second round that they're much better than, which means like it's the AFC championship away against a Buffalo or a Baltimore at home. And I think that's unfortunately for my, my guys here in Bill's country, not a bad bet, you know,

straight up. So I would say them and I want the NFC to be more unpredictable, but what Detroit just did and then getting the week off and maybe getting Montgomery back. It's boring, but I'll pick the, I do think Detroit would be the better team in that game. I, It's boring, but I'll pick the – I do think Detroit would be the better team in that game. I think the Bills, which is a hard pick to make

considering how many times they have come short against the Kansas City Chiefs. One of us should take them. Yeah, this feels like this is it. The NFC, I don't know know if you told me the rams made the super bowl i'd be like okay well that makes sense i almost any team here you could see it uh but philadelphia or detroit is the the two most obvious picks they make the most sense but i don't know i i guess i guess buffaloDetroit for who gets to have a Super Bowl

for tortured franchises that struggled for so long makes a lot of sense to me. And who am I to not pick Detroit after going there and watching them play the way that they did? The Bills thing is that they were first in the league in fewest turnovers and third in takeaways. They were plus 24. They have not lost a fumble since week four so if they can keep that up they should go far they could go far if they

can't because like the defense is getting scored on and the it's it's not all random like alan and cook for as many games and touches and plays and hits to hold onto the ball. It's not like they're fumbling three times a week and just recovering them all either, but they have lost two fumbles this year. They've got to, Ross warned me yesterday, Ross Tucker warned me yesterday, cause I made this point to him. He's like, if they fumbled three times against the lions, it's on you. And I said, well, okay, then fumbling is luck but talking about it isn't great i got i know this works now i appreciate that from him um that that's a thing to watch with buffalo because they've been fully on the plus side in those areas this year and you know that's

not easily controllable cannot wait for this weekend of football. Mike, great stuff once again. As always, ADP Chasing, the Deep End Fantasy Football Show, and of course, WGR in Buffalo. So thanks. And the next time we talk, we'll see if there's still

Vikings games to talk about. Good luck, everybody. Good luck. Let's go. See ya.