Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - BREAKING: KYLER MURRAY IS A MINNESOTA VIKING (Part 1)

Episode Date: March 13, 2026

Matthew Coller talks about the breaking news that Kyler Murray has joined the Minnesota Vikings. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to an emergency episode of Purple Insider presented by Fandul. Matthew Collar here as always. And the emergency is that Kyler Murray is now a Minnesota Viking. The Vikings have just announced that they have signed Kyla Murray to a one-year contract to become their quarterback for next season. Now, this is something that we have spent quite a bit of time talking about breaking down arguing about and debating about. So let's get into the reasons why the Vikings would make Kyler Murray their quarterback,

the outlook for him for 2026 and beyond, what it means for J.J. McCarthy and his future and what you guys think as Vikings fans of now having Kyler Murray as the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings. I want to start out first. I know that Tom Pellero tweeted that they're hoping competition will. get the best out of McCarthy, but I think that we can say right off the bat that Kyler Murray is by far the most likely option for the Minnesota Vikings as their starting quarterback really from day one. And we saw last night as things were getting sorted out of what Kyler was going to do, what his plans were. And it was kind of interesting because Tom

reported along with a radio host from Arizona that Kyler Murray was going to have some Zoom meetings with teams that might potentially need a starting quarterback for 2027, reintroducing himself to some of those teams. So I think it's in Kyler Murray's plans to have a very good season with the Vikings and then see what happens after that, maybe similar to Sam Darnold or potentially stay with the Vikings. But it was also mentioned in that reporting, not by Tom, but by the Arizona radio host, that Kyler Murray was not going to go anywhere where he was not going to be the starting quarterback right away.

So we can probably dispel some of the idea that there's going to be a competition. I'm sure that we will hear from Kevin O'Connell that he wants it to be a very competitive room and that he wants, you know, Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy to get the best out of each other and push each other and so forth. But make no mistake, Kyla Murray is coming here to be the starting quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings. So why would they do this? Why would they want Kyler Murray?

And it's been asked to me a number of times if the Arizona Cardinals moved on. Why would the Minnesota Vikings want to get a quarterback that another team decided they did not want as their starter? Well, for one, Arizona is in a very different spot from the Minnesota Vikings. Arizona last year decided not to continue playing Kyler Murray and instead to go with Jacoby Brissette so they could get a very high draft pick. if you look at their offseason, they've done basically nothing outside of sign a running back and bring in Gardner Minchu. They have signaled really from space that that team is going into a full rebuild. And it wouldn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense for the Arizona Cardinals to keep a quarterback that could get them to seven, eight or nine wins if they were going to have an entire total rebuild and plan on drafting a quarterback in 2007. So they move on from him.

They will stick with backup level quarterbacks for next season. And that opens the door for the Vikings to get a starting level quarterback. So I think that answers why Arizona would move on. Now, why would the Vikings pick Kyler Murray over other potential options? We've seen Daniel Jones signed a pretty crazy contract with the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know if he was ever in the mix for the Vikings because he got somewhere in the ballpark of $44 million. per year with the potential upside of 50 million per year. And when you think about it from that lens, also Malik Willis got over $20 million a year,

why Kyler Murray does come down to the price tag versus the player and their performance. The fact that there is offsetting language that allows the Vikings to sign Kyler Murray for $1.3 million makes him the level of not just a backup quarterback. Backup quarterbacks these days are getting $6 to $10 million. We're looking at someone who is getting the level of a quarterback that you would sign from the USFL in terms of the dollar figures for a guy who has been a pro bowl or two times and also had a very strong 2004 season. And after watching the first five games of last year, I would also say that he played very well in the first five games of last season as well. So for $1.3 million, the fit is exactly right. And we'll talk about the fit offensively and everything else.

But with the Vikings cap situation, as you have seen from this offseason, where they have signed essentially no one, no disrespect to James Pierre, the cornerback. But they have essentially spent no money outside of bringing back Eric Wilson and Tavier Thomas and Andrew DePaul. But those have really been their only moves. And as we look at over thecap.com right now, they are under $10 million of cap space and have to be compliant this by the end of, I think it's next week or sometime soon, within the next few days. So they didn't exactly have Malik Willis money or Daniel Jones money or even really Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rogers money to spend if they wanted those guys. So the price tag matters a lot in this case when you're talking about someone.

that could have the potential to take you to the playoffs, could have the potential to be a quarterback for a longer term for this organization, but even in the short term. And we'll talk about the chances and what the odds are that Murray ends up succeeding and what our expectations are. But for $1.3 million, no matter how much you either do or don't like the style of Kyler Murray or his history before or some of the things that have been said about him in the past by certain people or certain language that was written in and then taken out of his contract,

$1.3 million is very hard to argue with. And should Kyler Murray come to the Vikings and not fit in and struggle in training camp and OTAs and have it not work out, moving on from someone that you signed for the veteran minimum is really not that hard of a thing. I don't expect that to happen, but it's one year. It's $1.3 million. You can't ask for a better deal. They signed him for way less than it costs for most running backs on the market for the cheapest positions.

In fact, Tavier Thomas, their special team's ace is going to make twice what Kyler Murray is going to make this season. And thank you NFL salary cap and the structure of contracts that has allowed this to be possible. I don't know if this is something the Vikings would have done had it cost them 25. or $30 million to get Kyler Murray, but the price allows them to keep 90% of their roster that they had last year together. They've had to move on from Jonathan Allen. They've had to move on from Javon Hargrave. But aside from that, they've found a way to bring back Hawkinson.

They found a way to bring back Aaron Jones. They found a way to bring back Eric Wilson. And when you go up and down the squad, if they don't trade Jonathan Grenard, this is basically the same team. and we'll see what happens with Harrison Smith. And if Kyler Murray and his joining the Vikings ends up influencing Harrison Smith to come back. And if he does, again, what's different?

It's not going to be a whole heck of a lot on this roster. And this was a team that went 9 and 8 last year with the 28th ranked expected points added in passing. Now, if we go back, now here's why you do it also. It's not just that the price is right, but it's also that this has been a valuable quarterback when he has had the right circumstances and when he's played well. Now, how that's going to happen is, I think, interesting to talk about how Kevin O'Connell

will work Kyler Murray into this offense, how he can work around some of the things that Kyler Murray potentially does not do very well. But in terms of his strengths and his resume, you would be very hard pressed to find too many other quarterbacks who had two Pro Bowl seasons and then in 2004, another season that was successful overall just from Kyler's standpoint. His team went eight and nine, but he performed well in that season. 3,800 yards, 24 touchdowns, 93 quarterback rating, 500 yards rushing in 2024.

Try to find somebody that's 28 years old who's had a season like that, who ends up available at all. It does not happen very often that you have a quarterback of this caliber become available. And his resume, I think, is very interesting to pick apart because he came into the league and he struggled right away as a rookie, as most rookies do. And then his following two seasons had some very, very high moments. He had a 500 season in his sophomore year in which he kind of broke out and looked more like a franchise quarterback.

And then in 2021, through about the first half of that season, people were talking about Kyler Murray as MVP of the league. There were very few people who were as exciting and as electric as Kyler Murray. And I think all of us remember the game against the Vikings when Murray threw for 400 yards, three touchdowns, also made a couple of big mistakes in that game as well. I seem to remember a Nick Vigil interception that happened. but the scrambling, the playmaking, the downfield passing at that time was exceptional in 2021. His connection with D'Andre Hopkins, as we saw after they made that incredible trade

with the Houston Texans, his connection with D'Andre Hopkins was nothing short of spectacular. Now, that team ended up losing to the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in 2021 in the playoffs. And that is his only playoff game. And it's certainly a blemish on the record of Kyler Murray that he did not get his team to the postseason more. But it all requires context when we look at Murray's career in Arizona. They had a good team, but they had subpar coaching with Cliff Kingsbury.

And that doesn't mean Cliff doesn't know offense or isn't effective when it comes to designing an offense. he probably is, and he was good in Washington with Jaden Daniels, but as a head coach and as a front office, they did not put great teams around Kyler Murray. They never had a top 10 defense. Not a single time did they have a top 10 defense. And if you look at the receivers that they've had, I think they expected Marvin Harrison Jr.

to be the next DeAndre Hopkins. He has not become that. He's not a separator. He's had a lot of drops. And he's struggled to become a franchise. receiver like they thought he was going to be. And if you go back to the two years where Murray really struggled, there was a tear down of the roster around him and receivers got hurt.

It was a major struggle for him. And he did not play very well in 2022. And then he tore his ACL, which made that worse. And then he had the ACL recovery and comes back in 2023 and plays okay, but it's just not the same in 2023. So they hire Jonathan Gannon and Drew Pett saying that was in 23 and then in 24 they get a full off season with him and 17 games. And what you'll find if you look at that season and Vikings fans saw this, Kyler should have beaten the Vikings in 2024.

In fact, his coach doesn't go for a fourth down, which going back through their tape was something I noticed quite a few times that Jonathan Gannon and his game management was not exactly flawless. but if they had gone for a fourth down and converted it against the Vikings, they win that game against the eventual 14 win Vikings. And it took a miraculous comeback for Sam Darnold to beat Kyler Murray that day. You saw a lot of his playmaking and a lot of his accuracy. And also you saw under Drew Petzing a more complete quarterback. And that's really been my observation of the two different Kyler's. There is the Kyler that comes into the league and is scoenix.

rambling all over the place and is making crazy plays and looks like Michael Vick 2.0 and he's throwing it all over the place, but he's not playing in structure a whole heck of a lot. And then there is the Kyler Murray that played for Drew Petzing and Jonathan Gannon in 2004 and into 2025. And well, watching back the tape from 2025, especially these last few days, I've noticed that there are times that he turns down throws. there are times that he tries to do too much and make a play out of something and ends up taking a sack and that can absolutely be frustrating.

But what I noticed is there's a lot more playing on time. There's a lot more playing in structure. And there's a lot more playing under center than he ever did before. So I think what they decided that group, Gannon and Petzing, was that if they used some of the more traditional type of stuff that's influenced from the Kuban, and Shanahan and Kevin Stafansky, which is where Drew Petson came from, that they could get more out of Kyler Murray. And I think that they did.

I think that they got a more complete quarterback, a more rhythm and timing quarterback, a more under center rollout and play action, which you'll see him do in every game from 2025 and 2024. Those are things that he did not do as much early in his career when he was with Cliff Kingsbury and probably set him back a little bit as a quarterback. And when you go back through and look at some of the quotes and some of the rumors and conversations about early on, I think there was an element of arrogance from Kyler Murray because he did come in and succeed so quickly playing a certain way. But I also think, and this goes for J.J. McCarthy too, that a 23-year-old Kyler Murray who's setting the world on fire,

scrambling around and making crazy plays versus a 28-year-old Kyler Murray who's played in a more complete quarter. type system who has grown five years in his life in terms of his maturity has a much better chance to play complete quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. And I think over his last, I would say, how many was it with Gannon 17 and 2024? So it's like 22 games. If you look at his last 22 games, he plays much more like a traditional quarterback outside of the handful of plays where somebody breaks through and he's scrambling. And again, there are times where he tries to do too much.

There are times where he passes up somebody open and maybe he doesn't see them over the middle. Or maybe he escapes the pocket too quickly when his offensive line broke down. But often those still turn into positive plays with Murray. And I think the big point here in terms of why they would do this is that you can take what he's done. recently, and you can bring it into the Vikings offense. You cannot bring it into the exact same offense that Sam Darnold ran, because Sam Darnold has a much bigger arm. Not to say that Kyler can't throw it,

but he has a much bigger arm and better downfield accuracy and is more consistent standing tall in the pocket, waiting until the last minute that someone gets in his face and letting it rip. So this is not Sam Darnold. In fact, watching him, I feel like he. plays a lot more like Kirk Cousins did, where when pressure gets into his face and he's trying to throw with someone in front of your face, he is not as successful. And that is where the height comes in.

So the Vikings do have to protect Kyler Murray well. They have to have Aaron Jones back as a past protector, which seemed to be a really important thing. Folks, you may have noticed by all of my old football references that I have reached the age where my friends and I are complaining about hair lines as much as we talk about football these days. But here's the thing. Why be down on yourself or frustrated when there are answers? Maybe back in my favorite era of football, the 90s, the hair loss products were not so legit.

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Feature products include compound drug products, which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety, effectiveness, or quality. Prescription required. See website for details, restrictions, and important safety information. T.J. Hawkinson is back, and that's going to be really big for him, because he does like to get rid of the ball quickly. But these are things that her cousins had problems with. and things that Kirk Cousins also did. Cousins did not love to whip the ball 25 yards down the field into a tight window. And he passed up a lot of those throws. And sometimes it drove Jefferson and KOC crazy.

But Kirk was also very accurate and very good when throwing on time, which is what I've seen from Kyler Murray is when he has good timing in the pocket, time to throw, and he needs to hit a 15 yard out or something like that, a 10 yard out. somebody even breaking over the middle, he can do this, a slant. I was just watching this from a game against New Orleans where his receiver runs a slant and it's one, two, bang, ball is right there, perfect position to continue to run. So I think that there's a little bit maybe things that are overstated a touch when it comes to the shortcomings of Kyler Murray and the potential of him filling in to Kevin O'Connell's offense.

and a lot of you have asked over and over, hey, how is he going to fit in? What's Kevin O'Connell going to do? Can Kevin O'Connell possibly change his offense around Kyler Murray? And I think that if O'Connell believed it was impossible to fit his offense to Murray, to have, I mean, the rhythm and timing thing is very real with O'Connell's offense. And Murray can play within that structure. if he watched all the plays of Kyler Murray and thought, this guy can't play in rhythm,

he's just going to take the snap and scramble and run, or he can't throw it at all down the field. If he thought that, I don't think that they would be in on Kyler Murray. I think that they would have been bringing Kirk Cousins back. And this goes to the ceiling. And I think the most important thing when it comes to this is really the ceiling,

that if we look at any of the other Vikings options, If we look at bringing back Kirk Cousins, even signing Malik Willis may have had a high ceiling, but what is the percentage chance you get there with so little in terms of a sample size and you have to spend more money to do it? What is the ceiling of bringing in Aaron Rogers? Well, it's not that high. It might be squeeze you into the playoffs. It might be the 18th best offense in the NFL.

But those guys are either in their late 30s or early 40s and have had Achilles. injuries and are not the quarterbacks that they were five or six years ago. The best case scenario for Kyler Murray is very important in this equation for the Minnesota Vikings. And the best case is that you've found a quarterback that you can have over multiple years and that you can build over multiple years that you have found your guy. I mean, he is 28 years old. And you could say, well, that's impossible.

Another team let him go. Sam Darnold is now the guy for the Seattle Seahaw. Baker Mayfield is now the guy for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jared Goff is the guy for the Detroit Lions. This has happened a lot where good quarterbacks who kind of blow with the wind in terms of their success, if the circumstances aren't great, then they're not great. If the circumstances are really, really good, then it's very possible that they're going to be great. I mean, Kyler Murray falls into that same category.

Think about the things that were said about Baker Mayfield when he was let go by the Cleveland Browns. He goes to the Panthers and he struggles. Baker's done, right? Baker's never going to be a starting quarterback again. He's just a backup. He's mediocre. He goes to the Rams. He's QB2. And then finds his home with the Tampa Bay Bucks. Why? Because they have Chris Godwin and because they have Mike Evans and because they had a good offense with Liam Cohen for him. That sounds right. why did Sam Darnold succeed with the Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks? Well, Jackson Smith Najigba and Clint Kubiak and KOC and Justin Jefferson, right? These good setups with good franchises who have maximized quarterbacks like Tampa Bay and like Seattle and like Minnesota.

Well, Kyler Murray, and I could say this for Detroit, it's a little bit different. But when Jared Goff was sent to Detroit, everyone wrote him off. They said it's over for Jared Goff. He'll never be a good quarterback. again, he's done. And instead, Jared Goff becomes the franchise quarterback for Detroit. And yeah, he hasn't won a Super Bowl. But man, he's been close a couple of times.

And they've had good enough seasons to be knocking at the doorstep. That might be getting a little bit far down the road with Kyler Murray. But if we're talking about what the upside of this is, that is the upside that we've seen from at least three different quarterbacks who were highly drafted, who ran into difficult times and circumstances and then found their right home. The upside for 2026 is also quite high. When you look around the NFC North, you see teams that are very good, but no teams that are perfect.

The Detroit Lions offseason has been a center that they got that they needed, losing their left tackle, and losing their other starting running back of their duo. to bring in a much worse running back, Isaiah Pacheco, who, you know, I think has been good, but has also been banged up and has regressed as a Kansas City chief. That's their offseason. They haven't done a hell heck of a lot more. And they've lost some players in Detroit. Still a really good team, but not perfect.

The Chicago Bears have not done anywhere near as much as I thought, or maybe they thought. They've lost DJ Moore. They've lost Tremaine Edmonds. And they've replaced them with a couple of guys. But they didn't make a big Max Crosby trade. they didn't do something absolutely crazy. They went and, you know, they ended up just signing some filler type of players that are good. They lost Kevin Byard, though.

They lost Nishon Wright, who was big for them. They're not perfect. They're on the rise, but they're not a perfect team. And then the Green Bay Packers, who just signed Javon Hargrave. That's a good move for them. And they've also lost a lot of talent. And it's not clear when Micah Parsons is coming back. And they lost Romeo Dobbs, who was a guy for them.

He wasn't Randy Moss, but he was good, or he wasn't Donald Driver, say, but he was good. And they haven't really replaced him either. So all these teams have their flaws. And all the quarterbacks have their flaws. Jared Goff struggles under pressure. Caleb Williams still isn't accurate. Jordan Love is up and down and is coming off some injuries from last year, but he's very hot and cold in his career. So you bring in Kyler Murray, who at times in his career has been a clear top 20.

quarterback in the NFL, and you hand him the best set of circumstances that he has ever had. Other than when he had DeAndre Hopkins, look at the other wide receivers. I mean, A.J. Green, an aging A.J. Green, he had at one point. Look at the other receivers. There isn't another receiver who even touches what Jordan Addison has been for the Minnesota Vikings. T. McBride, really good. And T.J. Hawkinson, at times in his career, has been as good as Trey McBride, or at least in his ballpark. I don't think he's quite to the same level as McBride, but is a very solid player.

And then you have the best wide receiver in the NFL, who even made Carson Wentz look good at times. And Justin Jefferson, before J.J. McCarthy got here, career, when anyone threw him, the football, had 109 quarterback rating, I think Kyler Murray should be able to work with that. And if it clicks and you brought back Brian Flores, and you brought back a lot of this defense. They're going to have to do something with the defensive tackles,

but the corners are back. You got a little more depth there. We'll see what happens. It's safety. But you have Van Ginkle. As of this moment, you've got Jonathan Grenard still. Unless I've missed something, I do notice the, my phone's been going off a little bit here with notifications.

So unless I missed a Jonathan Grenard trade, you know, they've still got him. They have a complete defense from top to bottom that has been maximized. by Brian Flores and gives you a chance any given year to be in the top 10, which Kyler Murray has never had before. So if everything clicks, if every single thing clicks, if Kyler Murray plays as a complete quarterback like he did from 2024 through the first five games of this last season. And the running game is at least good. And I think they need to draft a running back.

More running backs today came off the board. Rashad White and Emmanuel Wilson, those guys found other homes. So that's going to be a question. But if they can have an average to above average running game with some improvement in the coaching staff, in the scheme, maybe give the ball to Jordan Mason a few more times. If the offensive line can stay healthier, no offensive line stays 100% healthy for the entire season. So depth is still important. And right now they don't have it, but they need it. the health of the line, when it was good, they were very good up front.

And there's questions. Can Blake Brandel be the starting center? It looks like that's going to be the case. Can Darrisaw come back to be Christian Darrasaw again? Can Brian O'Neill stay healthy and continue to play at his level? Can Donovan Jackson take a step forward? There are questions. But if the offensive line plays an above average level,

if you have an average to above average running game, and the wide receivers are maximized by Kyler Murray with his accuracy. Now, he's not going to throw the ball 50 yards through the air every other play. So there will have to be adjustments. It will have to be more longer drives at times. There will be times where Justin Jefferson breaks open and Kyler Murray is already scrambling. So you go, well, man, he was open. You had him there.

But when you look at his results throwing to D'Andre Hopkins, there's evidence that he can push the ball to a number of, one wide receiver. He just hasn't had one in a very long time. So if everything clicks, if Murray is playing well, if Kevin O'Connell, which we'll get to, is getting along well with Kyler Murray, and they're on the same page, if the running game is at least what it was last year, but maybe better, if the offensive line is some version of what it was last year when it was healthy, if it works out with Justin Jefferson, the way it did with DeAndre Hopkins, and Jordan Addison can bring more to this offense and he clicks with T.J. Hawkinson the way that he did with

Trey McBride. This team has the potential to win the NFC North. And I have not checked in the last few minutes if Fanduil has updated its division odds. Maybe they have with the Vikings. No, they have not yet with the Vikings getting Kyler Murray. Let me refresh and see if they've done it yet. We'll keep an eye on that. Plus 600 going into this day. I'm curious if that changes. Now the Kyler Murray is here. But if everything clicks into place with Kyler Murray, this is why you get him. It could be very, very good. You can win the division. You can win 11 games. You can host a playoff game. You can at least imagine that happening and not think that you're also imagining, you know, unicorns and spaceships or whatever. Like, it's not pie in the sky. It's not pure dreaming and

imagining. It's, you can see it happening if some things click into place. And it's not that hard, especially for this franchise to see it happening because it's happened so many times before. And I was thinking about this as Kyler Murray joins this team and how, you know, once upon a time you had Randall Cunningham or once upon a time you had Jeff George or even Sam Darnold most recently or Sam Bradford before that. What do those guys all have in common? When the vice Vikings got them, what did people think about them? Randall Cunningham coming out of retirement. Well, this guy's done.

He's just going to be a backup quarterback. Goes on to lead one of the best offenses that's ever existed in 1998. Jeff George, where was his reputation? What did people think of Jeff George when he arrived with the Minnesota Vikings? He goes eight and two and wins a playoff game for them. Probably could have won another one if they had had a better defense or hadn't faced off with the greatest show on turf. What did people say about the Sam Bradford trade? which I think had he stayed healthy in 2017 would have really worked out.

But even then, his performance as a Minnesota Viking was way above what it was with the Los Angeles, St. Louis Rams and even the Philadelphia Eagles. Sam Bradford turned around the narrative about Sam Bradford. Everyone had said, this guy just stole a bunch of money from his teams, he's a bust, etc. But the last impression you had of Sam Bradford in the NFL was this guy's a really good quarterback, right? So what happened?

What is similar? And then Sam Darnold, when he arrived, sees ghosts. This guy can't play. He's a bust. He'll start the first three games and then they'll bench him, right? That was the expectation for Sam Darno when he came to the Vikings. He wins 14 games. Why does it keep happening?

I don't think that it's because the universe actually is a simulation and we all live in a flat circle. I don't think that's it. I can't be 100% sure, but I don't think that's it. what I think it is, is there's similarities along the way for every one of these quarterbacks. One is that they're talented. That's a place to start. The pure talent of the player, Kyler Murray is one of the most dynamic playmaking

quarterbacks in the NFL of the last 10 years. He has 3,000 rushing yards for his career. He, on tape, even as recently as the first couple of games of last year, makes spectacular plays at times, plays that no other quarterback outside of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen is possibly capable of. Free runners at him that he's dodging

and running away from and getting 30 or 40 yards down the sideline. You just don't see that from very many quarterbacks. His talent, his accuracy, the way that he throws the football in the areas inside 15 yards, it matters since a very high percentage of throws in the NFL are under 15 yards.

This has been thrown in his face, I know, over and over. Well, is EPA throwing over 15 yards, which someone has to catch it for EPA, by the way. But, you know, throwing to this area or that area, if you are one of the top 10, which he is since 2020 in completion percentage, he's one of the top 10 in on target percentage. He is one of the top 10 in the best way in terms of bad throw percentage. If you look that up on pro football reference. So someone who can throw the football with this degree of accuracy, who can make plays like this, you usually only get them at the top of the draft, right?

And that's what he has similar to all these other quarterbacks that have succeeded with the Vikings that are retreads that have been somewhere else and failed somewhere else. They're all top pick talents. Jeff George, one of the great arms in history. I mean, Sam Darnold, same deal. Big, big arm. And Sam Bradford, a brilliant thrower and operated incredibly well with his footwork and his timing and all those types of things, right? That's number one.

And Kyler checks that box. How about the wide receivers? A major reason for the reclamation project success of the Minnesota Vikings time and time again is the wide receivers. Justin Jefferson. I mean, even Kirk Cousins was coming off of a seven and nine season with the Washington football squad. and ends up coming to Minnesota and having some of his best years with Justin Jefferson in 2020, 2021, 2022, as we saw from the way that, how about that Buffalo game, where Justin Jefferson puts on one of the great shows that we've ever seen from a wide receiver

that day going against Stefan Diggs, who also certainly helped. So I haven't even included Kirk in this because he was more of a franchise quarterback when he got here, but his team let him go and he's still performed. at a very, very high level for the Vikings over, you know, several seasons. But Sam Bradford, when did he ever have Athelan and Diggs? And Sam Darnold, whose best receiver he'd ever had had been Robbie Anderson. And then he comes here and it's Justin Jefferson and goes to Seattle and it's Jackson Smith Najigba.

There's a lot of connection there with the retread quarterback who ends up turning it around with having great weapons. And also from a coaching perspective, if we go back, Denny Green, someone who was on Bill Walsh's coaching staff and always elevated his offenses, had success with those veteran quarterbacks. And then even with Sam Bradford, it got a little messy there with Norv Turner and Pat Schumer. But ultimately, Pat Schumer came from that West Coast world too and had a lot of success with Case Keenham in 2017, a good, good offensive mind, somebody that probably should. shouldn't have taken a head coaching job in New York where it was a disaster for him. But Pat Schumer knew how to call a game. And even with Kirk Cousins and the Kubiaks and the Stefansky and then here with Kevin O'Connell,

which brings us to what does Kevin O'Connell need to do to succeed with Kyler Murray? This is the fundamental question for the Minnesota Vikings is this is a huge challenge for Kevin O'Connell. And I was reading what Mike Silver wrote about it yesterday and he compared it to, you know, doing a backflip off of a high, you know, jump or something into a pool, whatever it was, with Kyler Murray being his maybe biggest challenge yet. I think it starts with the connection personality-wise between Kevin O'Connell and Kyler Murray. Because a lot of folks have had a lot of things to say about, about Kyler Murray and his personality.

And I think some of that goes back to Cliff Kingsbury, though I found it being interesting that one of the teams that was rumored to want to talk to Murray about his future beyond 2026 was the Los Angeles Rams, where I believe Cliff Kingsbury is on that staff. So there's that. Also, when it came to the relationship with Drew Petzing and Jonathan Gannon, by everyone that I've talked to about Kyler Murray, that relationship was solid. I don't know that they were our best friends dancing across the field together, but I think that when people grow and improve, you see that.

Or when they get personalities they gel with, you see that sort of thing connecting better. That just because it didn't work at times or just because there was immaturity at times years ago doesn't mean that's what's happened recently or that's what will happen here. And with O'Connell, the one thing that I think you could say is his superpower. And this was certainly tested last year. And I think there was the limits were pushed by O'Connell. And there was frustration that was shown maybe that we'd never seen before. But with all of his other quarterbacks, we have to go back to when it comes to the personality of his quarterback and how Kevin O'Connell operates with his QB1. go back to 2022.

Think about where the Vikings were, the locker room was, Mike Zimmer was with Kirk Cousins. It is very easy now to look back and go, oh yeah, Kirk O'Chains. Right. Kirk, he had everybody in the locker room, you know, putting their chains on them, and they loved him and everything else.

And I was there when he tore his Achilles. And I talked to Brian O'Neill right after Kirk tore his Achilles. and O'Neill was so emotional that he couldn't even really talk to the media after that because he was so upset about Kirk getting hurt. That was not stuff that we heard about Kirk when Mike Zimmer was his coach. We did not hear about the leadership. We didn't hear about him giving speeches and meetings or we didn't hear about, you know, them celebrating the way that they did on a plane with Kirk.

We didn't see the connection with the teammates. And then when KOC is his coach, we did. And it was clear that O'Connell connected with. Kirk on a personal level and was also able to push him forward into more of a leadership role than he had ever had in the NFL. It was no longer after KOC got here. Kirk just works here. That was not how it was when he was under KOC. And I also think, you know, that you saw that in the Netflix documentary. You saw that connection between those two. And I thought that the fans in 2022 and 2023,

connected with Kirk much more, too, because they saw much more of his personality, his competitiveness, his toughness, his love for the game. And I'm not saying that KOC did that for him. I think he brought it out in a better way. Like, that was all there. But a lot of it was quelled by how much Mike Zimmer

didn't like his contract. And I think that he limited Kirk as a leader because he never supported him and never had his back. well, I think KOC with any quarterback is going to have their back. And we've seen that over the years. In fact, if there's been an issue, I actually think it's been KOC's overbelief in his quarterbacks. If we go through his history, I mean, even think about Jaron Hall, like believing

that Jaron Hall was ready to start or how often they threw the football when Nick Mullins was in there. That's over belief in your quarterback. There's a couple of games that they might. might win if they just hunker down and run the ball. He believed too much in Josh Dobbs at times and threw the ball too much with Josh Dobbs. And I would say that for last year with Carson Wentz as well.

You look at that Pittsburgh game. You look at the Philly game and you go, why do you think that Carson Wentz can throw the ball this much? Because he believes in his quarterbacks. And with Sam Darnold, he was also a guy that showed up here, not ever really being considered a leader, not ever really being thought of as someone that all of his teammates would pick up on their shoulders. But when you watch some of the behind the scenes stuff, you watch some of the miced up stuff and the way that he talked with Sam Darnold, always super positive,

always pumping him up, always having his back with us in the media. How about after some very tough games for Sam Darnold against Jacksonville, against Los Angeles, in the middle of that 24 season, you never saw Kevin O'Connell break with Sam Darnold. Now, you did a little bit last year with J.J. McCarthy. And I think that he was tested with J.J. McCarthy because McCarthy was just not ready to play in the NFL. And I think that was really difficult for Kevin O'Connell because he wanted to run his offense because he wanted McCarthy to be that guy so badly. But even then early in the season, when people were saying,

Did you soft bench him? KOC was very defensive of that with J.J. McCarthy. And even still putting it out there that this is going to be a competition to Tom Pelliserro, I think even then he's trying to have J.J. McCarthy's back, even though we all know this is not a competition. So does Kyler Murray respond well to Kevin O'Connell having his back? And how do they communicate on a level with the offense? because I found it to be very, very interesting that Daniel Jones was doing an interview

early in last season where he's just playing great for the Indianapolis Colts. So of course, the question is, hey, Daniel Jones, why are you suddenly playing great for the Indianapolis Colts, right? And one of the things that he cited was he said that he had never had preparation, and I know he didn't play in a game, but he went through, weeks and weeks of preparation with Kevin O'Connell. He said that he had never had preparation like when he worked with O'Connell ever before in his career.

And he said that it changed how he approached the game with the Indianapolis Colts. So when you think about that, when you think about even a quarterback who had been in the league for multiple years with Brian Dable, who was a coach of the year at one point, I'm not sure he deserved it in 2022, but he was the coach of the year. and he won a playoff game with Brian Daible, and yet he's still saying with Kevin O'Connell, I had better preparation than I've ever had before. If you are a veteran quarterback,

if you've been around, if you know what you're doing, and you speak the language of Kevin O'Connell, I think it's going to work for you. And this also goes to best case scenario. Because worst case scenario is that Kyler Murray doesn't want to have a deep connection with his coach and he wants to play the way he wants to play.

Now, I don't see that on tape from 2000. 2004 and 2025. I don't see a quarterback just going rogue and doing whatever he wants and I'll just make whatever play. I don't see that. And I'm sure now that Murray is a Minnesota Viking, a lot of you guys are going to go back and actually watch those games. And I think if you watch the first game of the year in 2025 against New Orleans,

the game against Carolina, the game against San Francisco, what you're going to say. And he got whipped by Seattle. most people did. Most people did this year. But when you watch those games, I think that if you actually take the time, just go back and watch those games. Now that Murray is your quarterback,

you're going to come away with the conclusion, oh, that looks a lot more like stuff that the Vikings do than you would have thought. I do think there's adjustments that have to be made. There are throwing lanes that have to be created for Kyler Murray. There are things with over-the-middle looks, that if he's facing a deep zone, you won't see him force it into a window.

Like the guy has to be pretty open for him to throw it or he's just going to scramble or he's going to check it down. Now, that's not the worst thing in the world because a lot of his checkdowns, and this is the thing that I found in my research is that Murray's success rate, which is one of those stats that could be a little tricky because, you know, an explosive 30-yard pass

can be the same as a seven-yard first down. but his success rate has been very high in the NFL. It's one of the top 10 in the NFL since 2020. And the reason for that is because he consistently completes passes and he will take the checkdown. And he's not always going to force it into coverage. But I do think that there's going to be a give and take with Kevin O'Connell of, well, what is he really comfortable with? what really works for Kyler Murray and throwing the ball and seeing the field and what is he most comfortable with.

Now, when Sam Darnold got here, that was also a major conversation with him. And this is one of the things that frustrates me a little bit because 2023 offense and 2024 offense for the Vikings are quite different. And sometimes it'll just, oh, KOC doesn't adjust anything. It's like, he most certainly did with those two years because, because Kirk Cousins was throwing a lot, I mean a lot in the middle of the field and a lot underneath and a lot of checkdowns. And he wasn't taking very many shots down the field. And KOC loved the way he was playing quarterback. And then Darnold came in and said, and it seemed like Kirk didn't want to take hits in the same way that he had.

And with Sam Darnold, he was hanging in the pocket forever. And he does this with Seattle too. Hang in there. Wait till the guy gets open. Hang, hang, hang, throw it last minute, get drilled. that's not going to be Kyler Murray. So there's going to have to be give and take on what do you see well? What do you do to prepare for these games?

What are you most comfortable with? Do you like those rollouts from underneath center, which Kyler started doing a lot more over the last two years? But if there's anybody in the NFL and you go through all the coaches and you were drafting all the coaches that you could say had the right demeanor to handle a quarterback whose personality might be a little bit different. Now, I'm sure some of you will say he can't possibly adjust the offense because he didn't for Josh Dobbs.

I think that people can learn and grow. And I also think it was Josh Dobbs who showed up in the middle of the season. They will have an opportunity with Kyler Murray to now start from March 12th. And it probably started today. In fact, I would guarantee that it started today because Kyler Murray came to meet with the Vikings do you think that they just talked about Lake Minnetonka and the Mall of America and the Stone Arch Bridge? They probably talked a lot of football. They probably talked about how this is going to look if they're going to design an offense for Kyler Murray.

That doesn't mean it's going to work. I just think that if you were drafting coaches for somebody designed for Kyler Murray, Kevin O'Connell would be fairly high on that list and it gives them the best chance to succeed. So as we go through, why are they doing that? That's the question we've been asking for the last 45 minutes. Why are they doing it? That is another reason is that Kevin O'Connell probably looks at Kyler Murray and says, I can work with that.

I can make that work. And now it's on him because I'm not guaranteeing that it will. I'm saying he's got the best chance or one of the better chances. Probably you'd give Sean McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan and so, forth, maybe a couple other coaches, a little better shot. But in terms of the personality, the energy that that guy brings, the players consistently voting Kevin O'Connell as an A or A plus head coach. I mean, it says a lot about how the players are able to connect with him.

Also, this is a locker room that has a lot of leaders and a lot of communicators and a lot of players who have won games before, maybe not Super Bowls, but Aaron Jones has won a lot of games. T.J. Hawkinson and Justin Jefferson and Brian O'Neill, like they've played a lot of football in their careers these are there's a lot of pros that he's coming into in this locker room who don't necessarily need somebody to hype up the boys they need someone to throw the ball they need someone to win them games they don't need someone to slap them on the butt and say you know great job man or whatever they they don't need a cheerleader they don't need somebody in

the huddle that gives the biggest speech let's go win one for for antarcatin like that they need someone who goes and plays, right? And that's what they're looking for in Kyler Murray. So I think some of that stuff can be a little overstated sometimes. But I also believe that this is a good test case for Kevin O'Connell because he's reached a fork in the road as a head coach where you've drafted a quarterback that has not worked out to the state. And we'll get to J.J. McCarthy in just a moment. You've drafted a quarterback that is not worked out. You've let go a Super Bowl winning quarterback. You've had offenses. You also let go. I mean, Kirk did not succeed in Atlanta, but, you know, a pretty good quarterback there as well. You've had opportunities in different seasons

to take your team deep into the playoffs and you haven't gotten there. And you've had some success and you've had some failure as the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. And you've had a very good culture, but you haven't gotten to the point that everyone needs you to get to. And will you go back through the history of coaches for the Minnesota Vikings? They've had a lot of good ones. Mike Tice won a lot of games. Denny Green is, I think one of the best coaches. If I say of all time, everyone's going to throw, well, no, he's not as good as this guy or that guy. I mean, look at the success that Denny Green had and is one game away, one field goal away from reaching the Super Bowl. Look at how long he continued to succeed with different quarterbacks and so forth. I'd put

Denny Green up there is one of the better coaches in the NFL during his time. And you have Mike Zimmer who won a lot of football games and especially early on, turned around the team that was just floundering and ends up getting to the playoffs, to the NFC championship. There's a standard there that's been set that also when it's not reached, the Wilfs have made decisions to move on. Now, I think that O'Connell is a little bit different because, The culture matters a lot.

The way that the organization is viewed, the fact that, you know, a guy comes here and wants to sign here. And that's happened so many times. Guys signed extensions here. The free agents want to come to the Vikings. You see that a lot. It all connects back to O'Connell because where they were under Mike Zimmer at the end of his tenure was not very good. So that's, to me, a major factor, I'm sure, for ownership. But you know what the biggest factor is is winning.

And you could say, that the Vikings ownership has missed the boat on sometimes where they could have tanked and could have gone to the bottom and they should have rebuilt at this time and they kept trying to squeeze out every last drop. But one thing that you have to admit is that the Wilf's want to win. They want to win. That they've fired coaches who have not won in the playoffs or not reach the playoffs over multiple seasons.

They have invested incredible amounts of money on the roster, which is probably the main reason there's been no free agency for them this year, is, yeah, well, you've kind of spent all of the money over the last couple years, but they were leading the NFL in spending over the last three years, I think. So this ownership has spent. They care a lot about the fans. They care a lot about winning. They have created the best environment, the best facility, the best stadium, all those things.

If you're not, if you don't reach the playoffs and you don't win, then they have been shown to be willing to make a change. So I think it's an excellent test case for Kevin O'Connell to answer the question that everyone's been asking, really since last year probably is, you know, can you design your offense the right way for your quarterback? Can you fit your offense to the quarterback? Can you sort of play to win the game, not play to win the game the way you want to win it? Sometimes it's defense and field position. can you work with a quarterback who has this kind of different personality? It's a good test case because Kyler Murray is good enough to win with.

And if you can't get there, if you can't be racing for the division at the end of the season, if you can't be pushing into the playoffs, then maybe you are looking at saying, I don't know, you got to do something else. You got to tear it all down and move on or so. I don't think that's a good idea. I think when you get a coach this level that you keep working through it and you let this person improve and grow and so forth. But it feels like, based on this team's history,

that here we are sort of at the precipice. This is either going to go one way or the other. It's going to be his greatest act, or maybe second greatest if Sam Darnold is number one, but it might be his greatest to work with Kyler Murray, or it's not going to work out, and you're going to be looking around going, what to make of the franchise now.

Because the gap between a successful season with Kyler Murray and an unsuccessful, successful season is absolutely enormous. This season could be, we are talking about old Purple Insider cover in the NFC championship game. I don't think it's that crazy to be saying that. Or we could talk about next year, Purple Insider covering a coaching search and a quarterback search.

That's how wide the gap is of the situation with Kyler Murray. But it makes sense to go with him rather than put all of that into a Kirk Cousins, a Daniel Jones, a Malik Willis. you're putting it into someone who has had success in the past. So that's the why of Kyler Murray with the Minnesota Vikings. And I continue to refresh Fandul. I'm very curious if the line moves now that they've got Kyler Murray. Or maybe it won't.

Maybe it won't move off plus 600 right now for the Vikings to win the division because they were already assuming that Kyler Murray was going to be a Minnesota Viking anyway. Let's get to what it means for J.J. McCarthy. they're going to say it's a competition. They're going to say they want a competitive quarterback room. That's probably what Kevin O'Connell will say time and time again. From day one of OTAs, I expect Kyler Murray to be QB1. And I don't expect that to change unless the season goes off the rails,

which, by the way, a $1 million contract for one year does allow you to, you know, pull out the hook anytime you want to. If you start two and four and you love what you've seen from J.J. McCarthy, you could just say, we're going to go with McCarthy. And you could trade Kyla Murray or you could just bench him or whatever. It doesn't matter. I mean, you're talking about, I mean, you're talking about one million bucks. It's not like you've made this huge investment.

If you don't like what you see, you can always go to the other guy. I will say to the ends of the earth, I think that this is the best thing that could have happened to J.J. McCarthy. I think that from what we saw last year, he is far away from being a franchisee. quarterback. But I also think that McCarthy has flashed everything that it takes to be a franchise quarterback someday, or at least an above average starting quarterback in the NFL. Franchise quarterback may have a little bit of a different connotation because you think Joe Burrow or something. So he's probably not Joe Burrow. But when we can point to certain moments, when we could

see his progress in 2024 camp, his first impression to the Vikings was so good. When we see his first impression in Chicago of having a tough game and battling through it, giving them a chance to win and making plays. We see his scrambling ability, his game against Detroit, where he was able to use his legs and also throw the ball well enough in that game to get a big win within the division and get them back into the race. We saw it in a final drive against Chicago at home that should have given them a win. We saw it against Dallas, which I thought was by far the best game that J.J. McCarthy had played as a professional football player was four quarters. He was pretty accurate that game, made plays out of structure, had some spectacular throws, really drove

the victory in that game. But I also think that there were so many instances of immaturity, and I don't mean in a way about his actual, him as a person, or I don't mean off the field, or I don't mean anything, by immaturity, I just mean not fully ready to be a starting quarterback with a franchise's fate on his shoulders. That's what I mean. I don't mean being, you know, acting like a jerk or something. I don't mean that. I just mean there were too many instances of decision making that didn't make sense for why the ball was being thrown in certain places or why decisions were being made with the football. I think that the pressure and the criticism was shocking. to J.J. McCarthy because he had never had that before.

And he made reference to it when we had the last conversation with him, the last press conference, he made reference to how often we had asked him about it. How often that we had said, hey, you know, how are you going to deal with losing when you've never really lost before? I think it hit him like a ton of bricks. And you can go up to that podium every day and say how confident you are and say you're doing fine and everything else. He was not doing fine.

I think it was really, really hard on him to deal with something that he had never seen before. But being the age that he is, this is something that you learn from. You have now seen how hard this league is. You have now seen how you have to deal with the things that come your way and that hit you throughout a season. You've also maybe had to learn that if you are not the most coachable or you can't operate the entire offense, that they will go get someone else. and that is the harsh reality of the National Football League is that they do not wait for you. And the Minnesota Vikings in their franchise cannot wait for you.

They cannot sit around and say, well, maybe let's just hope and dream and pray that J.J. McCarthy figures it out. And that is a really tough but important lesson to learn in the NFL too, that there isn't going to be excuses made for you. And I know that fans have spent a lot of time this offseason trying to dig through pro football reference and sort the right way or whatever to try to make it look like McCarthy had a good season last year. He did not. And the organization was not going to sit there and say, oh, well, let's just, let's just pray to Roger Goodell and the football gods that J.J. McCarthy figures

all the things out that he has to learn. He has to figure out how to run a complete offense, an NFL offense, not one that is dumbed down for him. He has to learn how to deal with the ups and downs, even within a game where he was emotionally way high or way too low at times, coming off the field looking very frustrated or jumping around like a maniac when anything went right for him, that's not something that pro quarterbacks can do because you just wear yourself out. He has to work on throwing the football accurately. He has to work on throwing it with touch.

He has to work on timing. He has to work on understanding that you can't see where things. things are going to be. You have to imagine them. You have to see it in your head beforehand. You have to hit the back foot and throw to a spot and believe in it. You can't wait until Justin Jefferson gets open. You have to throw it to a spot and he will get there open. These are things that take time for a pro quarterback. And I feel very bad for J.J. McCarthy that he never got the opportunity to develop the way that most quarterbacks do. Most quarterbacks come in with Sam Darnold ahead of them that are drafted 10th overall or in

that range, Alex Smith ahead of them, for example, Aaron Rogers ahead of them, for example, guys that are not first overall picks, Carson Wentz ahead of them with Jalen Hertz, a second round draft pick. I mean, heck, even Tyler Shuck, who was 25 or 26 or something, sat behind Spencer Rattler. That guy was five years older than J.J. McCarthy or whatever and sat behind. Spencer Rattler until he was ready to start. Most quarterbacks who get drafted have that opportunity unless they're thrown right into

the wolves. But even Drake May didn't start right away. And Jaden Daniels look at the offense they ran from the beginning and he was also 24 years old when he started. Bo Nicks really struggled at the beginning. He was 24 years old. Most quarterbacks get a chance to have some development time. And I think the Broncos probably didn't even have high expectations.

for Knicks' first year as a rookie, and he ended up making the playoffs. But even then, they were taking it slow with him right off the bat. So McCarthy just didn't get that. And that injury with the meniscus set him way back. And then the franchise did him a disservice by making him the starting quarterback last year. And I had read from Diana Rossini put in one of her articles that the Vikings felt like they had to start him or they might lose him. and I thought, man, that seems like a guy who needs to not start then. If that's the way you think, that means he needs that more time on the bench.

But they did him a disservice putting him in over his head with a veteran locker room that all expected to win that was wearing shirts saying more is required that Brian O'Neill's up there saying, I'll do anything it takes just to get to the playoffs. I mean, these are guys who hear the clock ticking of their careers and you put it all on a kid who was not ready. And that was a big mistake by them last year. Proved out to be a big mistake. And because of his personality and because of his energy and his enthusiasm and his work ethic,

they thought he'll be okay. We'll guide him through it. But there's no preparing for the ups and downs of the NFL. You can look at the roller coaster from the side and go, yeah, that doesn't look too bad. But when you're on it, you want to throw up. And that's what happens every single year in the NFL. and someone like J.J. McCarthy, who didn't even have that development season and didn't have any adversity really in college, was not prepared for it. So now what he gets, and who knows how long

it will last, it's possible that J.J. McCarthy's playing by week three. It's possible that he's playing by week eight again. But even that, even in that scenario, and I want to make a pie chart of different scenarios and think about the percentages with Kyler Murray here. But even in the scenario where he plays week four and takes back over from Kyler Murray for whatever reason, injury or, you know, maybe they start 0 and 3 or something and they're trying to just throw a Hail Mary, even that, I think, would be really good for him to have an offseason that's healthy, to have offseason with no pressure, to have games where he could be QB2, where he's preparing and he's ready and he's pretty and he's

practicing, but he's not got all the pressure and all the criticism that comes down on your head throughout a season and everybody looking at you saying, hey, man, you're wasted my career or my numbers. From Justin Jefferson never said it. And he, but it didn't matter if he said it or not. Justin was as enthusiastic and supportive and whatever as it could be for, for Justin, or for J.J. McCarthy. But he knows what Justin Jefferson and everybody else is thinking.

when he's airmailing passes. And you can see at times where he's trying to just guide the ball, just please get it to Justin Jefferson, right? That just says to me, wasn't ready and needs more time behind the scenes to be ready the next time. And there will be a next time. I mean, one, guys don't play 17 games that often. Kyler did in 2024.

Last year's got a foot injury that he probably would have played 12 or 13 games, but, you know, they decided to tank. But, I mean, somebody falls on Kyler's ankle. He hits his hand on somebody's helmet, whatever it might be, and J.J. McCarthy's back in the game. He will play again in the NFL. I promise you, he will. And I think if you're a huge J.J. McCarthy fan and you have a number nine jersey,

I think that you should be looking at this through a long-term lens. I know everything is, I want it right now. I want to see more, you know, I don't want to see Kyler Murray. I don't want to see another retread. I want to see, you know, the guy that they drafted. I want to see the kid that was promised, the golden boy. I want to see them give him every single chance of the world. I promise you, I think this is better.

And there's so many quarterbacks in NFL history who have needed more time. And I definitely think he's one of them to develop. This, in my mind, is a good thing for J.J. McCarthy to get to the point where he is competing in practice with Kyler Murray every day, but also with himself to prepare himself for win the. next opportunity comes. And then we'll learn everything we need to know about J.J. McCarthy when the next opportunity comes. And the best example that I can use for McCarthy is really Malik Willis.

Because I know Malik Willis was a third round draft pick. But if you look at the scouting reports between Willis and J.J. McCarthy, there's a lot of similarities. One is the lack of touch on the ball, you know, trying to be too much of a playmaker at times with Malik Willis was an issue. and with J.J. McCarthy was kind of put in a box with Michigan. Not that he didn't make plays out of structure, but was, hey, you're under center, you're running play action.

And then, hey, if it's a third and seven, maybe go make a play. Where Malik Willis had too much, I think, freedom to just run around and scramble and so forth. But both of them needed to learn the blend and the balance of how to play in the NFL. And Malik Willis's first impression was super rough. and then he went to a similar type of coach in Matt LaFleur, and he developed and he prepared, and when he got in the game, he was ready. And now he's somebody else's quarterback that they're hoping is a franchise QB. It just shows you once again, it doesn't have to be over just because it did not work out right away.

And I think that the whole rookie quarterback contract thing in this instance is just overstated. In a magical, wonderful world, you'd start them again this year. and you'd sell, you know, down the road, restructure every contract, and you'd try to sign every player you possibly could. If McCarthy was ready to win right now, you'd love to do that. I mean, and this is a part of the point, too, when we talk about, oh, he should be starting, they shouldn't have got out and got Kyler Murray, or, you know, they don't know what they're doing.

You don't think they want that? You don't think they want that more than anything in the world. They would love to have JJ McCarthy have been the guy. They didn't want to do this. They didn't want to go out and get somebody else. is starting quarterback, but they feel like it's the best thing. And I also think it's the best thing for J.J. McCarthy by far. I don't believe it's a quarterback competition.

I don't think we'll see them doing every other first team rap or something like that. Kyler's going to be the guy and McCarthy has an opportunity to learn. And then the next time that Mer or that McCarthy plays, we will find out is J.J. McCarthy a quarterback that could start in the NFL or not. And let's just say that a scenario or. rises where Kyler Murray plays 10 games, goes six and four, and then gets hurt. And he's out for the year. Here comes J.J. McCarthy.

He looks like a different guy. He's commanding the offense. He's smart with the football. Remember, last year he got sacked as many times as Sam Darnold. I mean, he can't get sacked like that. He can't throw interceptions like that. But let's say he's learned that. He's safer with the football.

He's playing smart, but he's making plays out of structure. And he's getting the ball to Justin. all clicking, then you can go back to him in 2027 and start planning how you're going to build around him in the future. So this here situation with Kyler Murray gives the Vikings, it gives them avenues. It gives them, and this is what I want to talk about is all the different potential avenues and we could pie chart this and try to figure out which one is the most likely. But it gives them an avenue where they get to the end of the year and they go, we just won

12 games with Kyler Murray and him and KOC are fitting great and we want to sign him to a four year contract extension. We want to do a Daniel Jones or a Sam Darnel type deal with him. And then you're going to revamp your roster and start building through the draft at that point. If Kyler Murray is the guy and they love the way that he played. And that is on the table with what we've seen through Murray's history. That's possible. And if we're pie charting that as the best case scenario that they have just found this playmaking brilliant number one overall pick quarterback and they love them and everybody's buying number one jerseys and everything else if that's the case uh i mean that's you know a good

scenario for them but they'll need to plan for the future to build through the draft around him the way that detroit did or the way that Seattle had a lot of success with their recent draft that that has to be the case because the vikings as we know have gotten very very little value out of the draft that would have to change immediately you start stockpiling draft cap getting your salary cap right to work around a QB contract. In the pie chart of potential outcomes, I would put that somewhere around a 10 to 15% chance that Kyler Murray plays maybe even 20.

Let's just go 20 because I think he's played well enough in the past and I've seen it so many times with this team elevating quarterbacks that everyone said was left for dead. I'll go 20% chance that Kyler Murray plays well enough in 2000. for the Vikings to make the playoffs, even potentially win a playoff game, and they're talking about a longer-term contract with him. I think there's a 40% chance. This is a pie chart.

So out of 100, 40% chance that Kyler Murray is just pretty good for the Vikings, and they win 10 games and they get to the playoffs. And who knows? I mean, sometimes it's about your matchup. Are you traveling? Are you home? But they make the playoffs. They win 10 games.

but he was not good enough where you're saying give him a four-year $160 million contract or something like that. You're not locking him in. And I don't know what the scenario is with a franchise tag. If this deal comes along with you can't franchise tag him or transition tag as was just done with Daniel Jones. I'm not sure if anyone's seen the details about that or not. But let's just say they're left with a little bit of a tough decision at that point.

I think that's the most likely scenario is that there's ups and There's a lot of really fun stuff, and there's some frustrating games that you lose and go, I just don't think he's the guy. But then there's other days where you go, I just can't believe what I just saw. He just threw for 380 and four touchdowns and beat whoever, right? Like he did against the Rams in 2024. It wasn't 380, but it was a crazy, crazy good game. And they won 41 to 10 over the Rams with him at the helm.

There's a, there's high end that's very, very exciting, but there's low end that's very frustrating. And then they're left in a tough spot. That, I think, is the most likely scenario at 40% is that they're left in a tough spot by Kyler Murray trying to decide, do we want to go forward with him or not. The next scenario is that he just doesn't play that well. And they win seven or eight games and you're clearly moving on from him. Someone else will sign him in free agency and that's okay. But you're just clearly moving on from Kyler Murray. And then the organization is left in a spot where they're trying to decide, do you go back to McCart?

or do you draft someone or you probably try both. In that situation, is KOC still the coach? Is certainly a question you'd be asking? But I think that that one, if it's 20% best case scenario, he's amazing, you're winning in the playoffs, 40% you're winning nine or 10 games and you're having a really tough conversation at the end. I think that this one is probably another 30%.

So we're at 2040 and, 90% right 24 80 80% yep I won't I won't screw this up no 90% so it'd be 20% that it's amazing 40% that it's just pretty good and then 30 okay so 90% chance that it's just not that great and maybe at the end of the year you're playing j j j mccarthy for a couple games because you're out of the playoff race or something and just trying to see what's still there I think that's a 30% chance I think it's a very wide spectrum. And then I think 10% is it just completely implodes. I think Kyler Murray is way too good for that.

But there's always the injury that they could just have an injury and then it didn't mean anything. And I still think the Vikings need to go get another quarterback also. Maybe Carson Wentz comes back as the QB3 or even QB2, depending on how it goes in, you know, in the preseason and training camp. I think they need to have three quarterbacks because if Murray, he gets hurt, McCarthy's got a history of injuries. They've been to QB3 twice in four years with Kevin O'Connell. But I think that's 10, I think that's 10% that it just implodes. It never works.

They go 0 and 4 right off the bat. McCarthy's in lost season. They're tearing apart the roster. They're going all the way to the bottom. They're aiming for a 2027 high draft pick quarterback. I think that's only 10%. Because everything went wrong last year, horrendously wrong last year. And the Vikings still ended up winning nine games.

So I wonder what you guys think the spectrum is. And maybe that's a good way to put this. Fandul has not changed their odds still sitting at plus 600. So I guess that's what they think it's going to be for Kyla Murray. So I'm very curious to find out from you guys the spectrum of outcomes, where you think it lands. I've given you my pie chart. I think there's a 20% chance. This is amazing.

A 40% chance is just pretty good. a 30% chance that it's okay, but it comes up short of expectations and a 10% chance that it completely blows up in everybody's face. That's kind of how I think of this. So here's what I want to know. We've spent a month debating what quarterback the Vikings should get, how it's going to look, what they're going to do, is it a good idea? From day one, I've thought this is the best idea. I don't think it's a perfect idea. I think a perfect idea would be to trade a third round pick for Joe Burrow. But, you know, for some reason, I feel like Cincinnati's probably going to turn that down. That would be a perfect idea. Unfortunately, this is the next best idea because it's the

best football player. And if you can't make it work with someone who's got this much talent, well, then I think we've learned everything we need to learn in five years, right? If you can't make this work with somebody who is this accurate, this good of a playmaker, has multiple pro bowls to his resume. Then we're going to know. And even if we want to take it a step further, and I'll get to your, your comments in a second, because I want to hear what you think is the most likely outcome for Kyla Murray. If you want to give me a stat, you know, expectation, give me a stat line, like what you

think he'll do stat wise for the Vikings. I'm curious to hear that. And later on this week, I'm going to have Josh Weinfuss, who covers the Arizona Cardinals for ESPN. He is going to pop onto the show at some point later on this week as well. And we'll be live again tomorrow because I promised every day in free agency that we would go live. So I'm curious about your expectations.