Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Brian Murphy thinks the Vikings' 4-0 record is no fluke

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

Brian Murphy and Matthew Coller discuss the Vikings' win over Green Bay. Murph isn't concerned about the bizarre ending so much as focusing on the team's strong start. Plus Matthew answers fan questions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

to another episode of purple insider matthew here, and it is time for Monday Morning Murph with Brian Murphy. 4-0, Minnesota Vikings. Let's kick us off. Your thoughts? Yeah, just where we expected them to be, right? At the end of September, all the prognosticators, us included, grandma, the guy at the end of the corner that he's run into at the bus stop September, all the prognosticators, us included, Grandma, the guy at the end of the corner that he's run into at the bus stop. I mean, everybody thought 4-0 was in the bag. I feel like this is a team now that we have to – not only that we have to recalibrate, the league has to recalibrate.

And as much as they may say they've always believed in themselves, I think they have to recalibrate a little bit too internally. I don't think they expected certainly four straight wins, but in the manner in which they've accumulated them. And what has impressed me most, which is what I kind of wrote about to start off this week, is that the stat that just sort of hangs out there with them. They have only trailed this season for three minutes and 26 seconds. And that was way back midway through the first quarter in the Meadowlands after C.J. Hamm had fumbled. You know, the Giants were able to get a quick three-nothing lead. And that is it. The Vikings have been playing not only with a lead ever since, but big leads

and racking up big leads and kind of just clubbing their opponents into submission. Now, yesterday at Lambeau, that opponent did decide to wake up and do some damage. And there were plenty of things, both offensively and defensively, to nitpick about how a 28-0 lead turned into a two-point lead with a chunk of time on the clock and damage to be done. And Green Bay really only an onside to kick away from maybe getting a 15-yard play and a game-winning field goal now from a broken kicker. A lot of ifs there. A lot to unpack from yesterday as usual.

But the fact that these guys do not give their opponents a minute to breathe and have them on their heels and playing uphill from the very get-go is a pretty good recipe for success because you may not win every game that way but you're going to make your opponent crawl out through broken glass basically to even try to get back into a game and the odds are pretty good that you're going to you're going to prevail at some point in a game like that it's been such a long time Murph since we've talked about a team like this I mean 2016 they went 4-0 we know what happened after that but 2017 clearly the strongest team and if we just look at four game win streak remember after the 2017 team went two and two, then they caught absolute fire,

just ripped off a bunch of wins with Case Keenum. And then in 2022, the same thing, only those games always came down to the very last play time and time and time again, where so far this season, I guess you could call an onside kick the last play, but not really. They were ahead in that game the entire time. The Packers made it interesting at the end, way more interesting than it should have been. But if we are asking who outplayed whom in that football game, it was easily the Vikings smashing them from the start and then allowing them to come back as so often happens if you let teams hang around in the NFL. But I think you can still look at this win as being a very strong victory when we're trying to evaluate how good the overall team is.

But my question is about Kevin O'Connell. This is the first time now we're seeing him with a team like this, though, because in 2022, it was so often, well, it's coming down to the last minute, and they're going to need a final drive from Kirk and well, we got it, you know, and I think we know that O'Connell can call plays in the clutch, but playing from ahead, I think is an adjustment. And he was talking yesterday about showing the team. He believes in them. I think he can put that to bed. I think everybody knows he believes in them and he believed in them the whole

time. I think it's now time to shift to the most pragmatic game theory that he can have in these situations and not just, I'm going to make sure I keep passing with Sam Darnold when we're up three scores so he knows that I believe in him. Yeah, or on the fourth and one play down there inside the 10 toward the end, I wanted to stay aggressive and keep my foot on the gas. Yeah, you got to figure you're going to be able to pick up a yard. And if you don't, you're also forcing your opponent to go 95 up against the clock. I don't know. A field goal there would have been sort of a gimme and would have taken a little bit of the edge off too.

I like what he's saying, but I think he's got the part here. You know, Kevin O'Connell is the head coach. He's got that locker room dialed in. He's got Darnold dialed in. I'm not sure he has to prove anything else to his roster that he's going to be there for him and we're going to be able to be an aggressive team that is unrelenting. And I want you to to all believe that I think they all believe that now

you know what's funny is with 2022 you know he's a rookie head coach all of these magical things are happening around me you don't really have a sample size to evaluate you know what head coaching in the NFL really is it's it's, it's game management and it's play calling, but a lot of that job is Monday through Friday as well. And managing expectations, managing emotions, managing the media, managing the inevitable ups and downs that come week to week, victory to victory, loss to loss, injury to injury. So now that we have an idea, he's had to deal with 0-3 and 7-10. He's had to deal with Magic. And now he's dealing with a 4-0 team that is kind of the darlings of the NFL right now. I mean, they're there with Kansas City and, of course, Seattle plays tonight.

But you have a lot more people looking at the Vikings, not maybe as a fluke, but as a bona fide elite team that is only going to run into more challenging, emotional kind of get readiness. And also we know it's not going to go as smoothly all the time as it seems to and we know Sam Darnold hey he was efficient he made some great throws he struck early he also had you know a couple of turnovers I wouldn't blame the fumble totally on him the interception wasn't a good spot and a good throw he also almost had one on that first drive that could have really changed the tenor of that game as well so there are still moments where you where you're kind of looking through those fan fingers, but they're fewer and far between, and really none of his mistakes have proven fatal.

And until it proves fatal, it's just sort of the normal ups and downs of a game. So I'd like to see now O'Connell dealing with the expectations of being an elite NFL team. This is a tough, tough assignment. You've got to get on that plane. You've got to go over to London. You've got to do all the London things in a strange stadium, in a strange land, in a weird time zone against, you know, a New York Jets team and Aaron Rodgers that doesn't seem to be playing that well, but is going to probably get most of the hype. And whether or not the 4-0 Vikings can even find themselves as favorites for once is going to be a little bit of an intriguing watch as well, and how they respond to that. Because, you know, they love to play the disrespect card. All teams

do. There's only so much mileage you can get out of that. Darnold and the Vikings have gotten about as much mileage as they're going to get out of that trope. Yeah. I'm guessing that after the jets played the way they did and lost to a quarterback who threw for 60 yards on Sunday, that the Vikings are going to end up favored in this one for the first time. But I do think Murph,

that there is a different switch that gets flipped at four and oh, and I talked about this at the end of the post-game podcast from Lambeau where we go from okay well they're off to a really good start here and if you go 500 the rest of the way you're a 10-win team and this is a good position to be in to all right now we have real expectations throw out we are so far removed from preseason prognostication and all that stuff that I'm not concerned with what anybody said before the season the results now that we're in the season have set the bar at this team should be competing for the entire NFC and and should be now a favorite to win the NFC North to to beat Detroit when they face them, to beat the Packers

again, and to look at the second half of this schedule. And I'm going to include the Jets because they haven't been that good of a team. You've got the Jets, the Jaguars lost again yesterday. You've got the Colts who can't keep Anthony Richardson healthy, and he hasn't been all that good. I mean, there are lots, Tennessee's a bad team. Lots of winnable games ahead. They've actually gotten through the hardest part of the schedule. So now I think it's fair to just say that the expectation for O'Connell, for Brian Flores, for this team, save from catastrophic injury, should be go actually compete and win something.

Because normally the history of this team is once every 10 years you get one big shot at it well this decade they haven't gotten their one real big shot at it unless you think that the the 2022 team was it but i kind of don't because they got outscored by their opponents that year so go go do it right that's how i look at it i feel differently today than i did at 3-0. And I think they should embrace that. I'm guessing that they will. I mean, there's no shortage of confidence, certainly on the defensive side of the ball.

And there's no shortage of confidence in Sam Darnold, not to be the 350, 400-yard, four-touchdown guy, but to be the 20-for-24, 250- 250 to 275, a couple of scores, shaved down that turnover. He ran a little bit yesterday that, you know, I hadn't seen him really sprint upfield. I've seen him go toward the sideline, but he had some moments where, again, you're just wondering with that tender knee, what should he do? But no, he recognized some opportunities there. I think he prevented more disastrous plays from becoming more disastrous. And I think that's been something to watch over the last couple of weeks. I mean, he literally took a sack on some blown pass protection instead of trying to scramble

and shovel pass and maybe make something desperate out of nothing. Is that a growing maturity or just a growing realization that this is not a team where I have to make something magic happen on every series? If you can continue to score on your opening series or put up two touchdowns in the first quarter and have that kind of a defense already stirring up trouble early on in a game. I mean, I'm almost guessing the Vikings hope teams defer the coin toss now. It used to be an offensive strategy. We'll defer, steal a possession later. I'm thinking the Vikings want that.

I think they want their defense on the field to start a game. And I feel like they're a team now that if you fall behind to them, the options and the menu and the level of aggression that Brian Flores can dial up only grows. And I'd be curious what he has to say tomorrow. I'd be curious how sort of the autopsying of that second half performance, what it reveals. I don't think it reveals any large cracks in their system or their personnel.

As you mentioned, it's, it's NFL teams are not going to stay down for four quarters. They're going to make adjustments and find a way. And Jordan Love, as hobbled as he may be, still got a beautiful arm and is going to find some people downfield. And Matt LaFleur is a hell of a play caller. So I wasn't shocked to see them doing some things. I was shocked at how I think Minnesota offensively either got away from some of the things that were successful or weren't able to adjust to whatever defensive adjustments Green Bay made.

A couple of turnovers, a couple of three and outs, and next thing you know, you know, you're, you're, you're constantly looking at that clock and, and boy, nothing like a 28 point margin to really make you feel better. Sorry. My camera went out for a second. I just saw that. Yeah. It'll pop back. It'll pop back. Here I come. Okay. There it is. Let's talk about Darnold a little bit more, because when we have watched some previous quarterbacks come in and be the surprise story, Case Keenum, Josh Dobbs qualify under this. There was always kind of a debate of, is he going to keep doing it? Is this really real? And part of the reason, because draft status is a metric it's like something that we do have to keep in the our back of our mind because Josh Dobbs was a fourth round pick like there's

only so much raw talent there that the NFL evaluated when that guy came out and when you were talking about Case Keenum it was either undrafted or seventh round pick or whatever it was I think it might have been undrafted and he was undersized and he wasn't that accurate. And his head coach kept going back to, hey, K, stop throwing it up for grabs like a crazy person. But I haven't thought that Darnold's bad moments have even been by NFL standards, like the craziest thing that you'll see. I mean, if you watch a Joe Burrow game or you watch a Josh Allen game, these very talented, highly drafted quarterbacks, there'll be two or three plays a game that could have been a turnover. And you go like, well, okay, they're going to have to get away with that because these guys are aggressive and take risks. I really didn't like the throw to start the game that was almost intercepted because it was

unnecessary. And I, but I do think he's cut down on those significantly. And then you look at the end of the day and you go, this guy put together a tremendous statistical performance with some great throws into the end zone to Jordan Addison and to Justin Jefferson. That's why it feels different to me, Murph, is that it doesn't have any sort of real fluky elements. The great plays.

Can they keep happening on a weekly basis? Well, with that arm, I think that they can. And the other thing that I've started to notice about Darnold is each post game press conference. There inevitably is this kind of hint of Sam. Remember when you weren't that good?

Like, are you good now? And I didn't feel so much of that yesterday because now we've got so many games of him being good that, like, you can't really say that. And I just feel like his confidence in the biggest moments for this team, there hasn't been a ton of them. So we've only grasped a couple has been going up and up and up. And it just doesn't feel like something Murph that is going to fall off the edge of the cliff just because of how he played five years ago for the New York jets. I just don't think that that information of him playing badly is really all that relevant right now.

No. And what makes the difference to me when you mentioned Keenum and Dobbs and sort of the, you know, you get these guys that come in and have a few moments of brilliance. And it's a lot of improvisation. It's a lot of gadgets. It's a lot of broken plays that turn into great highlights. The difference is Darnold came with a pedigree. We knew about the arm. We knew about him being a physical specimen in the pocket at his size and his range and his ability to fling or step into throws. And there's a look to it. I think, look, I'm not an X's and O's football expert. I never played

the game. Full disclosure, folks, I'm sure you have never figured that out, but I've watched a ton of football and you know what good football looks like and you know what a good throw looks like. That throw to Justin Jefferson, I would love to understand who was as much responsible for that touchdown. It's 50-50 receiver quarterback. I don't think Darnold could have put that ball in a better spot. I don't think the coverage was fantastic and I don't think Jefferson really, how manyold could have put that ball in a better spot. I don't think the coverage was fantastic. And I don't think Jefferson really, how many receivers could have really been able to turn their head and find the ball inches from their chest where it could easily bounce off and rattle away and have the presence of mind to bring that catch in with a defender in your face. Now, an inch or two either way, and I'm not sure that ball drops in there, but the way, when you watch

it in real time, it's even prettier than when you want, and you were there. And I'm guessing the press box was down by that end zone. I mean, the way that arc and spiral dropped into that spot, I mean, he literally dropped it into a bucket. And those are the kinds of throws that Sam Darnold is going to make. Case Keenum's not going to make that throw. Case Keenum's going to fling. He's going to shuck. He's going to jive. He's going to shuck. He's going to jive.

He's going to move. He's going to probably do some spinning. He's probably going to take a sack before the big play that he makes. Sam Darnold is going to deliver the ball where it's supposed to be delivered, like a professional quarterback, because he's now in an offense with a deep receiving core that can allow him to make plays. And we mentioned it yesterday, pass protection, outstanding again.

You've got a healthy offensive line. You've got a receiving core that's getting healthier. Jordan Addison comes in, makes an immediate impact. Naylor, keep him away from the punt returns, but obviously can do some damage. And now you've got TJ Hawkinson a few weeks back, probably from coming back, and you've got several options behind him that are developing. Josh Oliver, Johnny Munt, they're not forgotten characters either in this whole offense. The reason, and oh, by the way, you know, Darnold's got 11 touchdown passes. He's on pace for 45 plus. I'm not saying that that's

going to happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did at this rate. And the way he's looking doing it, he's hitting everybody on that roster, different spots at the end zone, different routes. It isn't a fade to the corner that's become reliable. I mean, if Jefferson's being taken away, they're finding single coverage, they're finding open receivers. And then you have the Aaron Jones factor. I mean, he comes back into Lambeau. He doesn't get a leap during the game, but he gets the ultimate mic drop by doing a leap into Vikings fans' arms after a victory. I don't see any, you know, sort of weak spots in the offense. The only question is, can

they, when they have an opponent on the ropes at 28-0, how do you make it 45-6 without having to sweat through an onside kick? Yeah, and what a problem to have when it comes to that. Here's Sam Darnold, by the way, in terms of sample sizes and trying to get the biggest amount of football that we can to tell us about where Sam Darnold is as a quarterback. You go back to the beginning of 2022, where he was not coached by Adam Gase or Matt Rule, and he had actually DJ Moore in Carolina and played pretty well at the end of the 2022 season.

So you go back to 2022, the last two years of this gentleman's life, he has 20 touchdowns, seven picks, a 101.0 quarterback rating, eight yards per pass attempt, and even 170 yards rushing in 11 starts. The sample size is growing of Sam Darnold being a good football player and the bad football from Sam Darnold is now quite a bit in the rear view mirror. I mean, 2021 is now many years ago that Mike Zimmer was coaching for the Vikings. The last time Sam Darnold was not a good NFL quarterback. And I know he didn't play a lot with San Francisco, but when he did,

he played pretty well. So his last 11 starts, that span has been good quarterback play my question for you is I feel like at the beginning of the season we went into the Sam Darnold experience with kind of fear like don't turn it over Sam just make sure you're checking it down when you can and I still think this by the way that he should be checking it down when he can have we turned the corner to this might be awesome and sam darnold ends up in vikings lore like as this guy that they've picked up and then he ends up becoming way better than anybody actually expected to from fear of don't screw it up, Sam.

We've got a pretty good team here. Let's try to win a handful of games to this. This is actually awesome. Well, I'll pick up on the turn the corner metaphor. How about we're just peeking around the bricks and we see a path down the sidewalk that looks clear, but we're not ready to blow our cover yet. That's just what came to mind. Yes, I know what you're getting at. Turn the corner says to me, you're safe and back in bed and there's no more

bad guys chasing you. I still think there are some demons out there that may be chasing them. So I'm willing to say, just keep giving them a little bit more, giving them a little bit more. I mean, when I say more, like more opportunity to get the ball downfield, maybe some more opportunity to take some riskier throws. But I really don't feel like the need to push that envelope is there quite yet, based on the way the defense has played, and based on the fact that they've been able to get on top of people so quickly. It changes the way a game develops. It changes the way other teams and certainly other offenses have to play. And that plays right into Flores and this defense's hands. If you're already playing with so much house money early in a game,

there are so many more things you can do. And, you know, you can take more risks. And it's not all about getting three and outs, three and outs, and forcing punts so you can finally claw your way back in the game. It's about bleeding clock. It's about, you know, I love the fact that the disguises that Flores has out there, that's all the television analysts will talk about is drawing up. I mean, I don't know how many times Trent Green yesterday had the diagram going up. Look at these eight guys on the line of scrimmage. Four of them are going to drop back. What I'm getting at is that there are just so many ways to confuse, tempt, and ultimately, you know, attack other offenses when you know that

they're going for big, bigger plays, bigger chunk plays, knowing they're going to be passing when you're playing with leads like the way the Vikings have. So again, I think that still is the game manager aspect of it is get us some points, protect the football, get everybody involved, get into a rhythm. You know, if you can score every drive in series, that's great. If we're, you know, picking up first downs, keeping our defense rested and ready that's where they are right now I think you could finally you could unleash Sam Darnold um at a certain point I don't know if they feel comfortable doing that yet and it's completely not necessary either I think he's been unleashed ish like unleashed in that O'Connell has found specific spots at a game to say,

Hey, Sam, take a shot or I trust you here when he gets strip sacked or the interception, that was a little too much trust for me. And maybe O'Connell's got to find that push and pull because the interception is second down and one. And if they kick a field goal, it's 31 to seven. And that is over, over, over, over.

And instead it's throwing a fade down the sideline that could get picked off and it does. And I know some folks at home didn't think it was an interception, but either way, the defender, Xavier McKinney, is a great football player who got two hands on the football. That's not something that should be happening. I think it's more of a emotional buy-in from Vikings fans is what I'm curious about for Sam Darnold.

Because I think that O'Connell is going to trust his quarterback for the most part, but still does have to avoid pushing him too far. I did feel like with Josh Dobbs, he pushed him too far after getting a little overexcited about how the guy looked through a couple of games. And then that ended up hurting them. And that was born out of desperation because of where they at, where they at, but then all in three start and they needed to win and win now. Right, right. And with Dobbs, it isn't all that comparable because he showed up in the middle of the season versus Sam Darnold where they've been working at this uh I think that they need to kind of keep the reins on him to some extent because he will get a little wild I was I'm kind of talking about even more of just the fans like buying into Sam Darnold everyone

was so on board with J.J. McCarthy and it was like well you know the Sam Darnold. Everyone was so on board with JJ McCarthy. And it was like, well, you know, the Sam Darnold guy, like he's here and okay, fine. But we're all sort of waiting around for McCarthy. But then you're forced to have Darnold for the entire season. And I just remember when the news came out, how depressed and distraught a lot of the fan base was. It sounded

like they didn't even want to watch the football season and they just wanted to move on to 2025. And as far as turning the corner, I think that this was the game beating Green Bay in Lambeau and playing as well as he did, where you could say, no, actually number 14 is our quarterback. Yeah. And if he goes over to London and helps take it to Aaron Rodgers, I think he has won over every heart and mind probably in the state of Minnesota. And, you know, you've got to wonder a little bit. I'd love to just hear some just this is a great problem to have conversations that the front office is having right now.

I mean, load up Kwesi with some truth serum and say, okay, really is this, is this turning into a dream season or your ultimate nightmare where you're going to have to make a decision involving two people that Vikings fans clearly, you know, they've already fallen head over heels for JJ McCarthy, and now they're falling for Sam Darnold while, you know, it's like the fans, they found somebody else while their girlfriend is overseas in Europe, backpacking and out of touch. It feels a little strange like that. And I, look, that's a great problem to have. We're a long way from declaring Sam Darnold the future franchise quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings, but I don't think that door should ever be permanently closed.

I thought people in July and August thought there's no way that that'll happen. In fact, if they were middling around 500, there was the thought that maybe you move Darnold at the trade deadline and get some assets back. Well, that's obviously not going to happen now. I think it's an opportunity to really take in, you know, we're a quarter, barely a quarter of the way through the season, but it does, it does set up a, a potentially thorny, but wonderful problem to have going forward with

two quarterbacks that you two, you truly believe in. Those will be discussions, obviously, better for January, February, March. But I love the fact that Sam Darnold is making it difficult for unconditional love for J.J. McCarthy. And maybe you wonder, too, you know, does McCarthy need to start right away? Would another year, you know, the year that he was supposed to have this year, he'd just be on the sidelines soaking all of this in. I don't know what he's losing necessarily. You could say he's losing a year of development, but maybe that's the development year turns out to be next season, even though Darnold clearly will want a long-term deal if he can leverage this season into something spectacular. So fascinating things to ponder, but certainly things that are

a lot different. And I think you're right. I think people early in the season wanted to root for Sam Darnold. And I think that that's being fulfilled right now. Whether it's enough to convince everyone that Darnold should stay and McCarthy should either stay on ice or they're going to have to make a decision. Somebody's got to go. All right. Before we wrap Murph, what do you need the 2024 Vikings to prove to you before in the Murph power rankings 2024, you would have them as the best team in the National Football League? I don't know what they're going to do in London, even if they somehow don't. I think they will be favored and should defeat the Jets,

which puts them 5-0 on the bye, and that's beautiful and sets up a very potentially juicy Week 7 matchup at home against Detroit. Let's say the Vikings are 5-0 and say the Lions, if they win tonight, next week are 5-1. I want to see how they perform in that game. If that truly does set up to be a battle for the NFC North, at least in the first half, supremacy in the NFC North. But then I want to see how they manage themselves through 5-1, six and one, seven and two, eight and three, nine.

You know, as this progresses and as the schedule lightens, as TJ Hawkinson comes back, as an inevitable lineman or defensive starter goes down for an extended period of time, how are they going to mix and match? How aggressive is floor is going to stay? Is this team, I believe it's going to be carried and defined by its defense, but is it going to be a 60-40, 70-30, or is it going to be more of a 52-48 when the offense is playing? I need to see, you know, seven-8 victories and a playoff charge before I truly believe that this is going to be a top 5 type top 10

type season well I think that and maybe a comeback win because those are always sexy too yeah that's right what I need to see Murph I think is Sam Darnold lose a game because I don't think they're going 17-0.

I could be wrong about that. You won't be. I was wrong that they were, and I didn't think they were going to go 4-0 because if you picked that, you earned a lot of money with Vegas, but show me the receipt. But I do want to see what happens after a bad game from Sam Darnold. Uh, there will be one where we just go, oh man, that was just a stinker. It just, nothing went right for him that day.

It could be in London because that so often happens. I wish they didn't play these games in London because they don't feel like real games. They feel like exhibition random. Yeah, right. Exactly. Uh, but if he has a bad game over there and has to come back and get his confidence back up and everything how does that work out because if it works out well then i'm gonna think that this thing could go a really far away if he gets into a rut and it turns

into three games then i'm gonna be a little bit more concerned. The problem is the streak breaker is number 18. Just yesterday, the fact that he trusts Jefferson in all the biggest moments, like, dude, that's all you got to do. That's really all you have to do to win football games as a Minnesota Viking is just trust that guy. It has been a remarkable start to the season, Murph, and I have enjoyed your columns.

Your latest at purpleinsider.com is For and Whoa. So people should go check that out. And we will have another Monday Morning Murph after London next week. Thanks for all your time, man. Appreciate it. All right. Looking forward to it. Let me get back to your comments here.

Let's see. Oh, gosh, says hundred percent of trap game. If there is such a thing, but I do think different than trap. I believe in the emotional letdown game. I do believe in that one out of all the cliche games that we talk about and the types of games trap less so than emotional letdown. It has been a bit of a run here. I mean, you go and play Houston

and there's all those crossovers. It's a big game for Grenard and Cashman and Diggs is coming back and the crowd goes crazy and you come out of that and everyone's juiced up. And then you go to Lambeau, it's an emotional game. It's back and forth or very much forth and then back for the Vikings. And you get to the end of the game. There's a lot of plays. It's a long game. Then you have to get in a airplane, fly across the pond, get your body

adjusted. And they're doing, I think they're flying out Thursday. So they got to get that adjustment really quick. Everybody get ready. You got to play on a field that probably is not ideal for an NFL game. As we've seen several times before and play a team that still has one of the best quarterbacks of all time, even if he hasn't been playing as well so far this season, that is a potential letdown game because of the circumstances. This is one where if they blow out the Jets, I will say, I don't know what's going to get in this team's way because it's so hard to do that, to come off of a huge win against Lambeau, go to a foreign country, play under circumstances you're not used to against a good defense for the

New York Jets. I think that they still fall under the category of an excellent defense for the New York Jets and Darnold coming off a game where he was a little more shaky with the turnovers. It's, I think it's a tougher game than, you know, we're going to give it credit for because of what happened to the Jets last week. Uh, let's see. T X Y U, uh, says, uh, I don't think Aaron Rogers is the same anymore. If the pass rush gets to him, it's over. He's too old and Harrison Smith, Gilmore and Griffin will pick him off. Uh, he is not the same. Absolutely not. But the thing about legendary quarterbacks is that they sometimes just find a way. And Aaron Rodgers has done that a handful

of times so far this season where they aren't playing the best football. It's not beautiful or magical. And then suddenly Aaron Rodgers makes a throw that reminds you that he has one of the greatest arms ever attached to a human being. And that's what the Vikings have to be concerned about. Because if you're playing in a game that is 10 to nine, like the jets were just playing in, you're playing in this back and forth, gritty, grinded out teams, making mistakes, excuse me, sliding all over the place, uh, go, you know, going back and forth in an ugly one. The other team has Rogers and you got to be concerned about that. So this is the type of game that I feel like the jets don't mind playing in where it is maybe a field that is not ideal. That could help them a little bit. They do have a cornerback that is capable

of playing probably better against just the Jefferson than anybody else on earth in sauce Gardner. They have a good defensive mind in Robert Sala, who has beaten the Minnesota Vikings before. If you remember 2019, this is not one to say auto win, put that down as a W move on to the next one because of the circumstances that are, are surrounding it.

Phil says, give Casey his flowers. Well, for the entire off season, and maybe we'll do some of this at some point because it is the quarter mark of the year ish. Maybe this is a story or a, an angle to,

to do would be where were we right? And where were we wrong about the start of the season? Okay. Four and Oh, everyone was wrong. I would love to know based on the Vegas odds and gambling and the fact that they were underdogs in all four games, what the implied chances of them being four and Oh, where I would guess it would be 1% or less that they would go for. No, that doesn't mean there were actual chances, the way that they played and the players they have just as far as the expectation that they would go for.

And I doubt any gambler out there pick the Vikings every single one of these weeks. So that has been surprising on the bigger picture. But as far as the plan working has not been a huge surprise to me. The plan of inexpensive quarterback, all sorts of free agent talent, building up the roster, coaching it really well, and having them win football games, that has not been shocking. The competitive rebuild of correcting over a couple of seasons, the salary cap situation, not signing a very old and expensive and injured quarterback to a big contract. None of that has been, has been shocking. The players that they went out and got listening to Brian Flores and going and getting the groceries

that are made in the grocery list for Brian Flores. That's a good plan. That's what a good general manager should do. He doesn't have to come up with the ideas on his own. Go get the guys that your coordinators want, that they know are good football players, especially Flores, who's a tremendous evaluator and defense builder. Now, this is the second time he's gone from not very much to a very good defense in a really short period of time.

So I think Kweisi Adafo-Menta and what he has done with the overall direction of the team and the roster has been fantastic. And the fact that they are set up for multiple seasons and have drafted a quarterback who looked really good and then has the potential to take over, or maybe not right away, we don't know, but that's a better position than what 60% of the NFL

that doesn't know what it's doing in the future with its quarterback. I mean, it's yeah, there's, uh, there's a lot to like with the way that they have managed their way out of the Rick Spielman era, which felt pretty hopeless by the end to now thinking that the window has opened with this group and that you can keep finding players to fit with your coaches. And just the Jefferson's going nowhere. TJ Hawkinson's going nowhere. Christian Derrissaw is going nowhere. The foundation of the offense is going to be there for KOC to work with for a

long time. And we do have, not all of these guys were drafted by Kweisi Adafo-Mensa, but putting the parts around them is the job for him. So, yeah, I think he does deserve a lot of credit. It's also only four games and there's expectations here going forward. Manju says the Vikings are first in offensive and defensive EPA. Can you explain what that means? The fastest way I can explain expected points added is that

every situation you're in first and 10 at the 25 first and goal, it all has an expectations of what you will produce on a given drive. So if you're at the 25 yard line, what are your odds of scoring any points in that drive? If you're on the on your own 25 versus you're on the goal line? So if you're on the 25, your chances of finishing the drive with a score are not that great. So your expected points is maybe 0.3. But if you're at the goal line,

your expected points are five because you usually get a touchdown or a field goal. See how that works? So at every situation, then how you perform is you're added to that. because you usually get a touchdown or a field goal. See how that works? So at every situation, then how you perform is you're added to that. So if you get a 50-yard pass from the 25-yard line, your expected points goes up from 0.3,

and I'm kind of making up these numbers, but 0.3 to now three because you're in field goal range or 2.5 because you're in field goal range. And the gap between where you just were and where you got to is goal range or 2.5 because you're in field goal range and the gap between where you just were and where you got to is the expected points added uh the i mean as far as meaning to that it is very meaningful how you perform versus your situation and it has been a very predictive stat in terms of offenses and how they perform in the playoffs. So being at the top, that's really good. That's really good.

Okay. You guys are funny. You're getting, I'm getting to the point where Manny was struggling to decide how many dollars to put on and. Sindrew a thousand dollars on the chiefs. The refs always win is funny. That's that's funny.

Also the greatest quarterbacks usually win as well. 750 on the Vikings. That seems like that would be too much. I maybe would have gone a hundred. Um, man, Manny, Manny puts $50 on each team and the rest of his pocket is funny. Uh, TXYU Baker Mayfield has revived his career. surprisingly. Yeah. I mean, when it comes to Baker Mayfield, it's just another example of a team that got impatient with their quarterback rather than sticking it out. Think about if Atlanta, Atlanta had, I think two bad years with Matt Ryan in the middle of an amazing career. So did Phillip Rivers. If they just bailed on the guy, then they would have not ended up with on the other side of that really good seasons.

And it wasn't like in Cleveland, Baker was horrendous. It's that the pressure just ramps up so much that teams make irrational decisions. Baker's bad season. I mean, there were so many injuries, including his own that year that they were not going to make the playoffs. They weren't going to be good, but it also wasn't the worst that any quarterback played in the NFL and the surrounding cast, the injuries, they were all problematic, but he was still okay. And they should have just tried to rebuild the rest of the team around him. But the complicating factors is always that the contracts with these quarterbacks is that they create so much pressure to win in a guy's rookie contract. And when you don't, you either have to

pay him a lot of money like Trevor Lawrence, where you're on the fence, but what do you do? You just have to pay him. And that may end up being a bad decision. So I don't know. That one's one where we can second guess Cleveland. I think a lot because he has proven to be pretty good. Also, you know, they had maybe the 20th best offense in the league last year. It wasn't really a championship caliber team. Being a middling quarterback is a tough place to be for any team. If you have a guy who's good enough to get you there, and you guys know all about this, good enough to get you the doorstep of the playoffs of the first round,

not good enough, likely, unless it's a great team to try to win the Super Bowl. It's a hard place to be, and that's where Baker puts almost any team. Matt B says, three teams from the North making the playoffs are the postseason. I think at least two i just don't know what to think of green bay after what we saw green bay is a talented team their quarterback is very talented but if he's going to be playing with a knee injury all season long it's not going to be an easy ride for jordan love as you saw early in the game it was a little bit wonky, but I still think that the overall picture of the Green Bay Packers is good enough to be in the playoffs.

Does somebody else compete for those final spots? Because you have Washington, Dallas is in the race. Maybe somebody else from the West outside of San Francisco. It's not a great overall NFC this year. If there's a year for the Vikings to do this, it's not a great overall NFC this year. If there's a year for the Vikings to do this, it's not a great overall NFC. Matt says, if the Vikings are undefeated at the bi-week, do you trade for a defensive tackle or right guard limited resources? I know.

I don't think they have to be undefeated to do that. They would and should consider it. It's just, are you giving up a first round pick? But Kwesi Daufel-Mensah came on this show. You can go back should consider it. It's just, are you giving up a first round pick? But Kweisi Daufelmenta came on this show. You can go back and find it on YouTube or in your podcast feed. And we talked about what the Timberwolves did with Rudy Gobert and how the Timberwolves decided the reason they trade for Rudy Gobert and traded way too much was we got to go for it. Anthony Edwards is coming into his prime.

You only get so many shots at this roll the dice and that he took on some of that. Even in getting Dallas Turner, he could do it again. I mean, this might be a hack when you have the cap space to just every year trade away your pick for an actual player. And they got TJ Hawkinson already out of doing this maybe they'll do that again if there's somebody who comes up a defensive tackle or I mean any kind of pass rusher imagine if you could use Van Ginkle on the field with Grenard and somebody else and Patrick Jones who's playing really well that might be an option for them. Even another weapon, another, you can't have too many.

Another corner, cornerback is a position I think of if somebody gets banged up or just having a better rotation out there and somebody they could sign for the future. Let's see. Kicking it with St. Swarthy says, that's quite a name. The Vikings have the best team in the NFL. Unbelievably talented. Two of the best play callers on offensive defense. Extremely hard to stop.

Yeah. When we go through and we compare the rest of the league in terms of your offensive play caller, your defensive play caller, and then we go position by position. Don't talk about the quarterback. Just line weapons, linebackers, secondary overall. It's hard to find a team that would match up and beat them in a lot of those positions. Jeffrey Simmons, some of you guys are bringing up. Yeah. I mean,

well, if they could get Jeffrey Simmonsmons that would be some kind of addition to the d-line that's what i'm saying is that if you get a chance like that to do it i mean you just got to take the swing because you're going to have the cap space in the future depending on what happens with sam darnold but when you get a shot this is what we know when you get a shot you shouldn't hold on to any assets you should just chips to the middle of the table because if you hang on to it for next year, you might just keep hanging on to it. After 2009, they didn't make the playoffs the next year. After 2022, they didn't make the playoffs the next year. 2017, they didn't make the playoffs the next year. I mean, a lot of the times the Vikings have had their best seasons.

The following year has not been as good. Even from 98 to 99, Randall Cunningham couldn't play anymore after 1998, after being as good as any quarterback ever the previous season. So that's a reason to don't let that first round pick bowl burn a hole in your pocket. If you could get an elite player that gives you a chance to win a Superbowl, just, just go for it. And you don't have to apologize for trying to win the Superbowl when you have

a chance to potentially do it. That is too far down the road to really commit to. At this point, we got to see what it actually looks like at the trade deadline, but that mindset might be kicking in here pretty soon. Especially when you got Gilmore and Harrison Smith, you got older dudes who might not play in the league next year. You really got to go for it now. Matt says, what are the chances the Vikings are able to keep Flores after the season? He's been so instrumental. I still think the chances are very good. I do. I still think that the rest of the league is not going

to give Brian Flores a head coaching job, even as good as he has been, that they are all looking for the next KOC. And here's what I know for sure is that if Sam Darnold goes into the playoffs and he's walking in to whatever stadium, maybe us bank Stadium, the 12-5 Sam Darnold, who's facing off with whatever team, and the Vikings, all the narrative will be focused on Kevin O'Connell getting Sam Darnold there. That even as good as the Vikings' defense might be

and important to getting there, that will be an afterthought discussion versus Kevin O'Connell took this quarterback reinvigorated him from nothing made him into this and here you go that might hurt a little bit Brian Flores's chances but more than anything it's just the lawsuit it's really just the lawsuit owners are going to want good soldiers they're going to want coaches that they can ask to do whatever they want to ask them to do and they will do it. And that then they won't push back on tanking. And, and, you know, as far as the other interviews around the league go, it's going to hurt, uh, when everyone's looking

for the quarterback whisperer and his reputation is not a good one with the quarterback, all that stuff's going to play into it. UhXYU says, I think Kweisi is saving cap space to sign some free agents next year to compete for the next five years. Plus, if they find a way to draft Travis Hunter. Well, I think that that's off the table now. Travis Hunter is going to be a top five draft pick, and this team is not drafting in the top five after the way that they've started. But the cap space, yes, that's going to be a huge deal. And that's why you would consider trading for someone, uh, would be, it would be because of that. It would be because, uh, you would sign them and use the cap space that they've been able to create. Uh, let's see. Ian says, what do you think of TJ Hawkinson's fantasy value will be

when he comes back? Well, you know what? I wasn't planning on doing the underdog fantasy read, but you know, since you asked, I mean, we might as well remind you that this show is presented by our friends at underdog fantasy, the easiest place to play fantasy sports, the fastest growing fantasy app in the industry.

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Everybody's happy. Must be 18 or older terms apply concerned with your play call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org okay so thank you for that question ian i think that tj hockinson's fantasy value will be extremely extremely high once he returns if you could get your hands on him or you already did do it or play him because Hawkinson is the option that they have not been able to make Johnny Munt or Josh Oliver into. He's the underneath guy. He's the safety valve. He's the one that uses the space that Justin Jefferson creates. And this to me could be five to seven to 10 more

catches. 10 is a little much, but five, six catches a game where you drop back, you look around that first read isn't there. And then it's Hawkinson and Kirk Cousins was just great at this use Hawkinson on those third downs when everyone's covering everybody else down the field and he can make plays underneath the other thing is to look around the league at tight ends everybody once again drafted Kyle Pitts Kyle Pitts just ain't good and neither is almost any tight end this year in terms of statistically so the bar is low and Hawkinson can, uh, I think make a lot of plays, uh, for this team. Uh, let's see. Uh, Tyson says Munt and Oliver playing well at Hawkinson sit until we need them. Yeah. I mean, I agree with that. Uh, but it is going to be different when Hawkinson comes in, uh, TXY, he says, is Hawkinson still good. It feels like he's been gone forever. Will he still be dominant?

It's an ACL. So he, yeah, I mean, these are things that players come back all the time from, but he's not going to be back for a few weeks. So you're going to want to keep an eye on that from a fantasy perspective. It's just, uh, you know, when it, when it comes to his dominant play, the last time we saw him, he was one of the best tight ends in the league. It was a long time ago because ACLs take a long time, but it was just last season. It's just that the NFL has a very long offseason. Mike says, every talking head, I guess that's me, says Sam has scary moments. He gets reckless three or four times a game. I'm tired of this.

Oh, okay. Tired of it. I'm every single good quarterback has their moments. Alan, Dak, Lamar, even Mahomes has brain farts. Relax. So this is true that good quarterbacks have to take risks. The problem is, and they do make mistakes. The problem is that we have metrics for this, man.

We have numbers for this that tell us exactly how much that stuff happens to those quarterbacks. And the answer is nowhere near as much as it's happened to Sam Darnold in his career. And there are specific, I can give you the turnover worthy plays. Sam Darnold, over 4% of his plays for his career have been turnover worthy. Those quarterbacks you just named are nowhere near that number. They're half that number. And that's the difference in the NFL between a great quarterback and an okay quarterback or not a great one is how often you're turning over the ball and making big mistakes.

And when a guy has a reputation in the past of being an interception machine, having more turnover worthy plays than big time throws, then we will go back to that when we're talking about a small sample size and the fact that he just did it the scariest thing. And here's why, here's why I know this is this, this comment of yours is trying to talk yourself into it more than it is a legitimate argument is because if I asked you about the Packers game, how did you feel about Sam Darnold? If you don't bring up a strip sack, an interception in the red zone, a near interception to start the game, sometimes where he got sacked and got pressured,

well, then you didn't watch the game. Of course, it's part of it. That doesn't mean I was looking at it as he could make some more mistakes than he did in the past. And he actually has more leeway. He has more easy throws, more guys who are wide open, more opportunities with a defense that gets stops to make a mistake and not feel like he's ruined the game if he does it. But he can't be one of those quarterbacks that you named having three turnover worthy plays in a game. He needs to be the guy from the first three weeks that only had one. And since you're, you're talking about, uh, you know, since you're talking about those elite

quarterbacks, like that's what they do. Like my homes every once in a while, my homes has a bad play, but when you look at his overall turnover-worthy plays for his career, he's one of the best. And even Josh Allen has dropped significantly, significantly in his turnover-worthy plays. TXYU says, Kweisi has been 50-50. No, he hasn't. He's been way better than 50.

They're 4-0, man. What is their records as they took over now at this point? Right. 13 and four, seven and ten, four and oh. That's pretty good. It's it's way better than 50. It's not 50 50. No way.

It's not when you're the sorry about being the best team in football. Where were they when he took over? An eight and nine team that was firing its coach that was stuck in purgatory where are they going how are they going to get out of this who are this who's this team even going to be when he takes over as general manager now they're four and oh we're talking about being the best team in the nfc maybe i mean i don't know his draft you guys guys just love the draft. You guys, some of you just love the draft. I'm not concerned about the draft very much. When you just signed all these players who have made this one of the best teams in the league, just not that concerned about a draft from several years

ago that they actually still got a really important receiver out of a starting guard. Who's now on his third year of starting. I know he hasn't been great, but, and a key running back at times, it's not really as catastrophic as you make it sound. I don't think if you're judging a GM just by one draft, I don't know what we're doing here because I do it on a much bigger scale, a much bigger picture. Where is the franchise? Do they have a chance to win? Do they have a future that says they have a chance to win? Have you formulated a plan, followed it and gotten to the point where you are in position to actually win something? And the answer is yes. That's not 50, 50. That's more like 95% with one miss being this

draft that everyone is obsessed over. I thought at four and oh, that this fricking draft wouldn't come up, and yet somehow it still does. It's kind of unbelievable. The last thing I'm concerned about is a safety that they didn't need not working out from two years ago. I mean, this is the over discussion about every draft when they went out and signed all these great

players who have all been excellent for them. I just don't really get that even coming up. Trent says, talk me into next year's first for Dexter Lawrence. It's not hard. Dexter Lawrence. There, I did it. I just said his name with enthusiasm. I mean, I would do that in a second.

Are you kidding me? Are you? I mean, in a second, I would do that in a second. Are you kidding me? Are you? I mean, in a second, I would trade for Dexter Lawrence that this defense with Dexter Lawrence would be absolutely insane. Uh, let's see. Jason says Denver's DJ Jones rumored to be on the trade block might be worth looking into. Yeah. That wouldn't take a first round pick, which is definitely also in the mix jeffrey simmons you guys are bringing up i'm into it i am into that idea of just going all in uh what if they get there and they're sitting at what was it last year it was uh what were they last year four

and four and they didn't trade everything away if they are six and two or better six and two, make the move, go for it. Is the faithful says the only trade I could think would be for a cornerback, but that's about it. Maybe a defensive tackle to stuff the run. Now,

I mean, if there is a pass rushing defensive tackle, then absolutely go for it. Landon says, have you seen JJ McCarthy around the facility? I have. Yep. On his little scooter. What kind of work do you think they have him doing?

He is going to meetings, meeting with KOC, going through the game prep, just learning how to be an NFL quarterback without any of the quarterbacking. But yep, he's I've seen him. It's funny. Cause he'll scooter into the locker room sometimes and scooter by boom, you know, like was that JJ? I think it was, uh, but he should be getting off that eventually and be able to get on the sideline. Uh, but yeah, I mean, he's, he's going through the processes if he was a part of the quarterback room and learning how that all works. And he's watching Sam Darnold play NFL quarterback, which I think is extremely valuable. Conrad says, I would put my chips on Dexter Lawrence. Do you think the defense was getting

gassed in the second half of the game because it involves too much feigning and bluffing. I think you mean, and man to man. No, I actually, I don't think that they were getting gassed as I mean, to some extent, yes, because it was hot out. And you're also talking about an offense that had a couple of three and outs there and they had to go right back on the field. But I think it was really the simplest explanation is probably the right one that one, when you fumble the ball as Darnold and you just give it to the other team at the whatever yard line, 20 yard line, then they're going to score pretty easily there. But a major part of the longer drives is just playing a little too soft and playing back a little too much. And I think, I don't remember,

maybe it was Kamu Grugier Hill said, or, or Blake Cashman that they felt like, well, you know, they're going to have to throw it short and underneath. And they just said, no, we're actually going to have this quarterback roll around and make plays and throw it down the field. We're still going to be very aggressive when it came to throwing downfield because they have a quarterback with the arm to do it. And that hitting on a handful of those big plays was really the cause. Mike says, don't you think it's refreshing to see our best player finally getting into the end zone consistently uh 50 50 gritty in their end zone um yeah i don't really care who scores

the touchdowns um i was never too worried about the fact that jefferson wasn't the guy because if you watched it on tape you would see all the defense putting so much emphasis on jefferson it really just matters that they do. And in the red zone, this has been a really good team so far. They have been mostly effective that fourth and one they failed on, but they've been mostly effective in the red zone. But it doesn't matter to me how you get there. That throw to Justin Jefferson, though, that's actually the bigger takeaway

is when Justin Jefferson has one-on-one, if he ever gets it, throw it to him immediately. I don't care what the rest of the play is. Take a step back, let it go in his direction. That's the way to do it. Uh, and Sam Darnold has seemingly figured that out and resulted in one of the best catches I've seen Justin make and might not even been, might not have even been the best catch of the day. How crazy is that? Uh, so I mean, uh, yeah, some of you are suggesting Dexter Lawrence might not be, uh, tradable. Yeah, that's most certainly

true. It is, uh, that if I was the giants, I would not be trading him. But Jeffrey Simmons, that could happen. So, all right. I have reached the bottom of the list of all of your comments. And it was a really good chat tonight. This was really fun. And 12 and five is where Manny's got them. We'll see how it plays out. A lot to discuss this week, though.

Jeremiah Searles on the show i have booked mike sandoe of the athletic to talk about what he heard from executives this offseason on sam darnold so that's gonna happen later in the week we're gonna talk on thursday so i'll probably publish that later in the day on thursday live show wednesday night is our live chat that we always do from seven to nine or beyond, which means make sure you're there. Cause I answer every question that I can on Wednesday night,

that show completely belongs to you guys. And then for London, I'm not going the purple insider budget was spent a lot on the owner's meetings, combine Chicago, green Bay or Chicago later this year, uh, Jacksonville, LA. So I've spent a lot of the budget. Um, but the more you guys sign up an underdog fantasy slash, tell your friends, subscribe, check out the newsletter. Maybe the next London game we'll do.

Uh, but I will be here for that one, watching it in the morning with you guys. Um, but we will still have a live post game show as always with myself and Dane Mizutani. It's a fun time, folks. Enjoy it. Drink it in. So thank you for watching, listening, and participating. And we'll talk to you all soon.