Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Can we expect big numbers from Sam Darnold now?

Episode Date: August 14, 2024

The Purple Insider Fantasy Football Show presented by Underdog Fantasy continues with Mike Schopp of the The Deep End podcast. They talk about Sam Darnold's projection and teams without No. 1 wide receivers. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with the Purple Insider promo code below: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-purple-insider Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar inside of a hotel at the Cleveland Airport along with Mike Shope of WGR 550 and the Deep End Fantasy Football Podcast. And this is the Purple Insider Fantasy Football Shope, right? And it is presented by our friends at Underdog Fantasy. This is officially kicking off our relationship with underdogs. So I greatly, greatly appreciate their support. And you want to check out something new that they have.

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Promo code PURPLE. That supports the show. If you want to do that. So make sure that you do Mike. People are getting hurt, including the Vikings quarterback, JJ McCarthy down for the count with a meniscus tear. We'll find out eventually after he has surgery, how long he is going to be out. But I want to make the case here to start our show that Sam Darnold just suddenly became interesting. I think we talked a little bit about it last time. And the

problem with anyone drafting Sam Darnold ever was that he could get benched in week two. Well, that seems a lot less likely now, but would you be more interested in a Sam Darnold now that you know that he is going to be playing a lot more football than maybe we would have thought? Absolutely. And I've been in enough drafts, even in the last 24 hours, where I think the market is saying likewise, really, it's still possible. It's an interesting one because apparently they won't know the timetable on McCarthy until like during the surgery so you know it could be a month or it could be a year and that's obviously a huge difference I think there's still you know room there's still a case to be made for drafting McCarthy because of that, you know,

the first possibility, the first possible outcome, he does come back. And, you know, I've been drafting this year, you know, open to each Vikings quarterback, but more so McCarthy, especially on teams where I have one elite quarterback. And then I'm really looking for somebody who's going to play in the playoff weeks where the rookies are more likely to do that. I thought there was a very slim chance Darnold would play the whole year. They would have to have been good. Or this happens. Justin Fields is also interesting in this way, by the way, where does Russell Wilson play the whole year?

He probably plays week one. But if they're not great, you'd think they'd want to get a look at fields. And then in those playoff weeks, you've got Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, one of those guys, somebody like that, Drake May as well, not so likely to start week one necessarily late in the season. Darnold now has the chance of playing the whole year, and he'll certainly move up he was going almost undrafted you know most of the time but you and I have talked about how I think you feel the same

way I just love betting on Minnesota in fantasy football because of the coach and what the track record looks like so if we knew who the quarterback was going to be and it was going to be one for the whole season, say Kirk Cousins in recent years. I mean, you want in on that because there's so much volume and production. So Darnold, he's somebody that I think the window is a little bit open for him to have kind of big numbers.

I mean, he does sling it. I don't think he's great or anything. I don't like him under pressure, but, and they, they might have that problem, but he, he can throw it. Um, so I think, yes, like they're definitely the odds are greater because of the injury that he plays for longer. And in that case, he's not the worst idea. Yeah. Um, maybe if the surgeon can tweet it out um oh no guys it's the four week or for fantasy draft you're mid fantasy draft you're like oh the surgeon just tweeted out that it's going to be the whole year so let me just uh pick sam darnold but i mean i think that no doubt by the way matt uh schefter and the surgeon are are connected and i would expect the tweet in the

schaefter tweet to use either the word noted or famed to describe the doctor that's that's what it'll be that's the that's the trade-off i want to take that further but i'm not going to uh i'll just i'll just leave that but no i, this surgery does really make a difference, though, because J.J. McCarthy, he got hurt. I don't mean this in a weird way, but like at the right time where he showed that he can play in the NFL. And while it is preseason action, he looked great in preseason action and was very, very good in training camp,

so it matched up to what we had seen. If he ends up being out for four to six weeks or something, they start the season that could still result in him getting in in the middle of the year, if things aren't going well for Sam Darnold. So there is a pretty big difference because the other surgery will keep him out. Probably when Adrian Peterson had the full repair, it was from week two to week 14, and that is Adrian Peterson, who's one of the all-time freaks. So I don't know that they would be able to get McCarthy back on the field that fast.

That means you're really talking about a week 17 and week 18 start at absolute best maybe for McCarthy, which means Sam Darnold. And the thing that we know about Kevin O'Connell, there was a story somebody told me about a sit- that we know about Kevin O'Connell, there was a story somebody told me about a sit down they had with Kevin O'Connell and they were asking him about the run game. Like tell me more about this run game. And within four seconds, Justin Jefferson's name was brought up. And it's like this, this, this man wants to throw the football and he wants to throw it to Justin Jefferson over and over. And we have to respect that because that is an efficient way to play football. But I think

from a fantasy perspective, that means Sam Darnold's going to throw. And when we've seen him in training camp, his chemistry with his wide receivers has just been really good. I mean, I think when you think of Sam Darnold, you think interceptions, turnovers, sacks, big mistakes. I think those are still going to happen. He threw an interception the other night in camp where he just didn't see a guy, and then he threw it right to him. So those are going to happen. But he also has the arm talent of a guy that you don't usually talk about like this.

I mean, normally if we're talking about somebody who is a bridge quarterback, it's Jacoby Brissett and just put me to sleep. Why would I want to watch anything Jacoby Brissett does? This is more on a Jameis Winston type of scale where if it clicks, it could actually have a fairly high ceiling. And this is why I think this season still remains very interesting, even though JJ McCarthy is banged up yeah I like the Winston comp I mean it's especially or even in a fantasy context that's

exactly what we're talking about you know if he throws 30 picks like Winston did okay that doesn't mean anything to me it means they're throwing the ball all the time and taking chances and we want that and I would add Jefferson so Jefferson has been going early, mid, first round all summer, kind of around five or six. You have McCaffrey and Lamb and Tyreek Hill, who almost always go in front of Jefferson. Then you had Jamar Chase. But now we've got Jamar Chase in a contract situation.

And I didn't see yesterday anyway the McCarthy news negatively impacting Jefferson's draft status. Because I think the market kind of thinks this way, that Minnesota is still going to be a high pass volume team. And that Darnold is good enough to basically fuel Jefferson the way Nick Mullins and Dobbs did in limited time. So I would think now, I did see from FantasyMojo.com that Chase was starting to slip a little bit in the expert drafts given this recent news. So Jefferson's status is still pretty safe.

Yeah, and this whole offense was thrown for a loop when he got hurt last year because it's all so designed for him, everything, the other route combinations for the tight end for Jordan Addison, everything is set up to try to get Justin Jefferson, the football. And I, what we've really seen is some trust in anticipation from Sam Darnold, where Jefferson won't be out of his route yet. And he doesn't look like he's that open and you just throw it up. And this is actually one of the reasons why I think Jefferson didn't get drafted way back when as high as maybe he should have.

He's not a crazy separation guy. He's not like Stefan digs where he runs a route and the cornerback falls over and he's wide open he is more of at the catch point so you have to trust him and believe in him a little bit but I think Darnold is also crazy enough to trust him maybe even more than Kirk Cousins did at times so I'm buying all of that I did want to ask you before we talk about some other situations about Aaron Jones, because the other day, Ty Chandler, who has a lot of talent, a ton of talent, stepped on Sam Darnold's foot as he was throwing, as he was trying to pass block. Darnold still made the throw, which was kind of crazy.

But this is just a big problem for Ty Chandler, and it keeps him off the field. And I think they're going to play Aaron Jones until he drops. How are we feeling about Aaron Jones? Because I think a lot of people want to handcuff with Ty Chandler. That makes a lot of sense to me. And I like Ty Chandler as a ball carrier. But Kevin O'Connell is going to play the guy who's better for the pass game most of the time. And it just feels like Aaron Jones is going to be more bell cow than he is duo.

Yeah, I would defer to your knowledge on that. I mean, Jones is a nice player. It's interesting. It was interesting that Green Bay didn't just want to keep him. And then they go and sign Josh Jacobs instead. I felt like maybe they just didn't feel like they could trust Jones' body anymore. So they moved to someone a little bit younger, but always liked the player. And this point you're making about pass blocking is huge in this situation and many others, especially when it comes to rookies, because we all want to find those rookies that are cheap

in fantasy drafts, and were cheap in the NFL draft, by the way, as well, that can win leagues for you if there's an injury to the starter or maybe even have a role right away. And Chandler is not a rookie, but he's somebody that fantasy players like because of his talent and because the offense is potent. But if I saw that play if that kind of thing is happening especially if there's a rookie quarterback investment on the field too you just don't want to take that chance it's always important to try to figure out it's it's not easy usually but try to figure out what the coach's tendencies are when it comes to that you You know, can we trust this player? In Buffalo, we have Ray Davis, who was a fourth-round pick, I believe.

You know, a little bit older, kind of a thumper sort of type as a runner. But a lot of analysts like his potential and still do. And what I've heard here locally is that James Cook has had some bad moments he had a good season but maybe also not so reliably had some famous drops last year ball security stuff okay well there's no one else really here Ty Johnson but there could or should be an opening a chance for Davis but if he can't handle the pass pro, then he won't play. Like they'll go get Latavius Murray back here or something like that. So I haven't been, we talked about this last week with respect to Ezekiel Elliott. For these older running backs that just never look good to me when you're on the clock.

There's always someone younger. There's a receiver because you know the receivers are going to dry up. There's the onesie tight end quarterback option that might look good there's aaron jones or there's zeke later on and so he's a tough click for me but yeah like if your point comes to fruition and they just do not trust chandler or anyone else they might have to protect the quarterback that will be an important thing and that is not in the numbers you know we're crunching numbers, trying to project players, there's nothing in there about how they do in pass protection. Right, and it matters so much because those guys get checkdowns

and things like that on third downs. If you could be the three down back and then you stay in for pass protection, but maybe you leak out if there's no blitz and then go underneath, everybody's looking at Justin Jefferson. This is something that they just didn't have much from alexander madison uh last year but aaron jones catches the ball really well um latavius murray by the way the best pass blocking running back i have ever seen i can't hands down i he's huge super smart he was really good at that um maybe this by the way maybe this davis guy can be like the next tim tyndale or something where he becomes a nice nice nice pole right there yeah that's how

you get you got you can't be the oldest running back in the nfl if you can't protect the quarterback there's only one way to be the oldest running no matter who you are oldest running back in the league you have to be reliable you know as a blocker right yeah exactly um maybe yonel jordain will come back and then i could do this for days the immaculate grid bills ones i do extremely well at uh speaking of the bills though i wanted to go over some situations where there's not a justin jefferson and you can tell me if there's anybody interesting there's three or four teams that are all making the same case in their press conferences which is no it's actually good to have a bunch of okay receivers as opposed to great receivers i i mean i i think the 49ers with

jerry rice maybe would disagree with that but i don't know um and i've been making fun of it all summer long so uh with let's start with the bills but i want to talk about the packers the jaguars couple of these teams like is there's is there somebody that is hidden in here amidst the, maybe, you know, the average receivers are good somehow. Is there somebody hidden in the bill situation that is going to steam ahead that we should be paying attention to amidst all of the conversation about how it's somehow better not to have digs. I make fun of that too.

We've been talking about that on WGR all summer. You know, this is actually good. I mean, once camp started and the bill started to talk, that was the company line. Yeah. I don't think so either,

but it's still not clear, at least to me who the right bet is. If there even is one. If they do what they say, and this is how all teams talk as well, is distribute the ball. The Bills' motto here, everyone eats, is what they're throwing around. That's the motto this year. Okay, so what do you do with that in fantasy football?

You can't do a lot. If you're playing in your basic you know lineup leagues redraft leagues as they're called you don't want to start any anybody on a team like that even if Josh Allen is the quarterback because it's just really hard to trust it these underdog drafts are best ball drafts and then you really don't have to worry about which weeks are the good ones or the bad ones you just want good ones in there and you don't have to set lineups. So it's a different game. Buffalo with the rookie Keon Coleman, the veteran Curtis Samuel, and the in-between Khalil Shakir. These are the three at wide receiver. I'm not mentioning tight end, but these are the three names. And Shakir's a

little later. Coleman and Samuel are just kind of in those six seventh eighth rounds you know that that range it's not so expensive that you're gonna bust if they bust but you'd like to know which one I don't think it's clear yet I think Samuel is a pretty good free agent investment and he has experience with the offensive coordinator. He'll play, and he'll get some handoffs. They'll do sort of clever or try to do some clever things with Curtis Samuel, and so that has value. Shakir is the only wide receiver on the roster that has ever caught a pass

from Josh Allen in regular season play, and there are some pretty big Shakir backers that think he's ready to explode. I'm not really one of them. You know, fifth-round pick, I think he's good. He's pretty reliable. He's caught the ball, but I don't know what the ceiling is. And then you have Coleman, and if you're really looking for upside, which is how you win at this thing, he's probably the one.

I mean, not everybody's favorite prospect, but if with his body and the Bills having lost so many red zone targets this off season with Diggs and Davis leaving, there's an opportunity for somebody to score touchdowns. And that's going to probably either be Coleman or Kincaid. And so, you know, touchdowns break the game. If you get a guy who scores a lot, then you're in great shape. And I think he might be, it changes every day, man. We talk tomorrow, I might give you a whole different lean. But right now, Coleman is the one that I like picking the most because there could be a really high ceiling there

that I don't think exists for the others. Folks, U.S. Cellular noticed that the way we use our phones has gotten ironic. We try to put our phones down for dinner, but the menu is on a QR code. That's ironic. We hit like on social media posts that we don't actually like. Ironic. Which is why U.S. Cellular created UsMode to help us reconnect with each other and use our phones less ironically a phone company wanting people to use their phones less ironic let's find us again with us mode from us cellular visit us cellular.com slash built for us to get started yeah no i mean anytime you're talking about a guy that was drafted high that they're going to

want to get on the field and that means that he had enough talent to be there but i just feel like this all sort of points toward kinkade and maybe throws to the running back because i mean there's not really a very clear deep threat here for Josh where with digs at his best. And then of course, Davis, there was explosive plays to be had, but this feels like it's going to be a lot of dink and dunk, a lot of pass attempts, maybe lower yards per attempt, which could result in a lot of catches for a tight end. And that's where I would lean a little towards Shakir here. But the one thing that's hard for me to figure out is does yak matter because I think yards after catch can be a really hard thing to predict somebody falls

down misses a tackle you get a huge gain or they don't and then they tackle you and like I don't know that anybody is so good so elusive so fast outside of a Tyreek Hill or Jalen Waddle a Percy Harvin I don't know if anybody's that good that they could just make everybody miss and get a million yards usually those guys are just like 9.7 yards per catch and they catch 57 passes do you think too that the quarterback something about the way the quarterback plays affects that because like last year this was a big talking point when it came to Gabe Davis yards after the catch they wanted to increase that it didn't happen and Allen you know something about his style to me he's not the touch you know lead you quarterback. He's going to throw it through you.

He's going to find you and hit the spot. And I think maybe, I don't know what the data would look like on that, but it's something I think about when it comes to yards after the catch. So what do you have? You have a possible effect from the quarterback that maybe is hard to define, and then you can't know if you can get it from certain receivers. I was thinking of Tyreek Hill as well when you were talking. Yeah.

That is something that everybody wants, but I don't, it's not something that really comes in. It's, it's baked in, I guess I would say to whatever draft position you're looking at, not something where I'm trying to figure out who the yards after the catch guy is and,

you know, adjust my rankings. Yeah. I mean, I think what Josh josh allen his style of throwing you would call it like put it on him like he just throws it right into the guy like a dart he doesn't like drew breeze throw it to a spot and then the guy runs and grabs it now it gets there really fast when he throws a bubble screen or something maybe that helps a little bit

but i really i really don't know. I've always thought that it fluctuated so much from year to year. It just depends on kind of the randomness of does the defense play it right? Because every time I've ever talked about, Oh, this guy's yards after catch. The only time it ever seems to work is San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan and whoever he's got. And I think Debo Samuel is probably special. And then we saw it in Miami a little bit, but that seems really scheme related. So can your offensive coordinator scheme yards after catch? If that's your focus, I'm just not really confident in saying that. So my answer for these receivers would all be, I'm scared of all of them, but I

guess the answer is so is everybody else. Kincaid is where it shines to me. Now, Jacksonville, who plays receiver for Jacksonville? Anybody? I don't understand. I don't understand why you would draft the number one quarterback with the talent of Trevor Lawrence and you get Christian Kirk, that's fine. And not just use all the rest of your draft capital and all of your efforts to set the phasers toward find as many wide receivers for this guy. It's like with the Vikings when they drafted Addison. Some people said, well, they need a cornerback. I get that. But whoever they draft in the future needs Jordan Addison to be open.

And it just seems like they have not done a whole heck of a lot there outside of um lavisca chanel a few years ago that didn't work that was a yards after catch guy it didn't work out uh what what are we supposed to make of jacksonville's situation there with their receivers it's a it's a tough one i talked recently with mike dempsey a radio host and a very avid fantasy player as well about that situation. And he was putting Gabe Davis, you know, he got a pretty good contract, above Brian Thomas, who they drafted in the first round. They did make the effort with Ridley, too.

I thought that was a sneaky move when Ridley was suspended. And, you know, okay, this is for next year. But he just had sort of a difficult season, and that didn't really take off. And now he's gone anyway. So it's interesting between Davis and Thomas. Thomas is the much earlier fantasy draft pick, but Mike had Davis above him. This is more than a week ago. Thomas was very active in their preseason game and productive.

And you always kind of want to see, too, how are they being used? Sometimes it's great to have that kind of production, who pops in the preseason, but is someone else not playing that outranks that player? And it can be counterintuitive because you really would rather have the zeros, no snaps, rested than somebody who goes for 100 yards, possibly. But Davis did, or Thomas rather, was impressive in their preseason opener. I think, you know, Lawrence, they made the investment in him, now a second one financially.

What makes sense, right? You have what you think a team should do, and then more importantly, unfortunately, what they do instead sometimes. And I don't know. Jacksonville, for me, has not impressed in terms of what their offense looks like. I feel like, you know, like you said, not only in terms of the roster, but let them out, Lawrence. Evan Engram, you talked about Kincaid earlier. Engram had a huge year last year with Lawrence and that's probably pretty sticky that you would think that connection holds

up what's the answer ultimately you know you you want to have I would want to have and I do have some Thomas very little Davis because I think we know what he is and um you know kirk is okay fourth fifth round uh but not somebody that probably week to week is is you know at all dominant i mean i think it's a improvement to not have zay jones uh on the team at least um and spending this first round pick on thomas i was a little bit skeptical about that. Now, LSU had the multiple wide receivers, Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. But I did wonder about this one with Malik Neighbors and if everybody else just looked awesome because Malik Neighbors was on the team. I haven't heard a whole lot or seen a whole lot on Twitter about Thomas shining there.

But I wouldn't trust any different version of Gabe Davis than there's ever been before. He's a guy who's going to catch some really impressive deep balls and that's probably going to be it for him. And that's where you leave Trevor Lawrence with just a whole heck of a lot of meh. I mean, nine yard passes to Evan Ingram is just not doing it for me. I mean, if you're in a fantasy league that you're getting a lot of points for the receptions, then Evan Ingram is fantastic. But still, it just all feels very meh.

Like that's where your money, Kirk is meh, and Ingram is meh. And Thomas so far doesn't look like it's shining yet. And you're right about the more a rookie, a first rounder is playing in the preseason, it's probably bad. I mean,'re right about the more a rookie, a first rounder is playing in the preseason, it's probably bad. I mean, if he's really blowing them away, like Dallas Turner came in for one drive, sack the quarterback, like, okay, that's enough and go sit on the bench because you're great and we need you. So yeah, I'm, I'm a little bit not buying almost anybody

there, but also I do wonder how many years in a row we can blame someone else for trevor lawrence not being one of the great quarterbacks in the league how about the packers how do you feel about the packers group of receivers because the the one guy that i buy more than the others is jayden reed i keep hearing Dontavian Wicks. That sounds made up. Romeo Dobbs always is the guy that they talk about leading into the season. But when I actually saw them play in front of me against the Vikings, Reed was the one that stuck out the most. And I think that someone will emerge that they're going to tell everybody on the internet that there's no number one receiver, but there's going to be someone that Jordan love likes more than anybody else.

Eventually the same way that Rogers fell in love with Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, and then eventually Devante Adams. I think that guy is Reed, but should I not be looking at him? Is there somebody else that you're looking at there? My guess to the question of who the quarterback likes the most, as you put it, would be Dobbs based on how Love has talked. And, you know, Dobbs is, he said something about, like, he's the second best receiver in the league.

That's probably not what he said. But there was some quote recently from Love that really sort of elevated Dobbs. I mean, another really tough one to sort out. I think the offense is so interesting and promising that if you're playing in a lot of fantasy leagues, you want some of everybody just in case. Also, we can't forget about Christian Watson, who is their greatest draft investment of any of them. And he figured know, he's got to, he figured out why his hamstrings weren't the same size or something. And so maybe he ends up being more durable. Dobbs is, having said what I've said, he's the one I click on the least often because the other

guys are all so exciting. You know, Reed is so exciting. So is Watson. That stint with Rodgers when he showed up and just blew up was, I mean, great. And so many people were off him. I was avoiding Christian Watson that year and got burned, you know, for a while. And then Wicks kind of is everybody's darling in fantasy this summer. But here's Matt LaFleur in the last couple of days saying that the phrase number one receiver makes him want to throw up. I don't know. The Packers and the Bills are interesting to think about together because these are both teams that want to tell you it's better to not have a number one guy. I think the Packers have kind of looked like that and been successful at that and I think their you know group

is better than Buffalo's uh so I kind of like having all of them whereas as we talked about with the Bills I'm not sure how high the ceiling is for anybody there's also Bo Melton didn't you point him out to me in an earlier uh conversation you have two tight ends there and you know jacobs as well uh man there's a lot to like with green bay uh beau melton i had never heard of before in my entire life before he lit up the minnesota vikings and then i called him melvin the for like four months after that until i realized it was melton um but yeah he could be in the mix as well. I agree with you that if we're comparing these three teams, the three, we don't actually have a number one wide receiver teams. The Packers have the best group because they have, I think probably a quarterback that they

have chemistry with from last year to carry over where the bills are bringing in new people. Jacksonville's bringing in at least Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis. So they're going to have to work things out. Whereas Jordan Love was throwing to these guys last year. So he already has a sense for them. And there's probably in my mind, there's just a little more talent there with Reed. I just don't trust Watson.

I know. Yes. One hamstring was bigger than the other. And so he, I don't know, jumped upstairs on one leg or something to make the other hamstrings stronger, but he, he looks like a guy that just gets hurt a lot to me. It can be the smallest thing. And then he's out for a little while. And I think these other guys

have kind of gained on him while he has been dealing with those injuries. Is there any other team to you that doesn't have a clear-cut number one wide receiver that you want to talk about? Kansas City. It's also a team, obviously, that you want to be in on, but what the order is is tough. Kelsey getting older, maybe they sort of slow play Kelsey. I think they kind of did that last year and you didn't get the same regular season from him than we've gotten. Now you have Marquise Brown who was hurt, but especially before the injury, what do you do ranking Brown, Rushie Rice, and Xavier Worthy?

I mean, Worthy, a first round pick. Rice was really good late in the season last year but might get suspended and then brown was kind of on a prove it contract you know he's done some things in the league tough uh for me rice has always been the play the suspension looms but now we're to mid-August, and we don't have that, and analysts are talking more like that might get pushed off until next year, in which case he's been the best deal in fantasy football all summer because you're talking about having worked with the quarterback,

unlike those other two in terms of Patrick Mahomes, I mean, success, and you spoke earlier about the value of a coach being able to scheme open guys. I mean, think about, try to picture Rashi Rice last year for the Chiefs. It's a short pass and he was wide open and got yards after the catch from that. I don't know that that's what, you know, he can, I think he can do more than that as a player. And that makes him very exciting, especially now with the Brown injury. I mean, there are other teams where we're trying to figure out, this is what we do in August when preseason starts,

is try to figure out what the coach's tendencies and how they're using guys can tell us about the plans for the regular season. And it's never clear-cut because it could be either thing we want to see this guy because we want to play him we want to not see this guy because we want to play him and we want to save him you can and you can't trust any of the coaches when they're speaking you know really there are people who try to measure that and you know give you some idea about which coaches are more reliable but the chiefs i mean absolutely a team where it's not obvious. And you have other guys, by the way, too, that played in and out last year, uh, Justin Watson

for one who doesn't get drafted. Um, yeah, like, uh, this is that time of year when we're all trying to figure out what, what's what matters and what doesn't. I think people are going to go a little crazy for the Twitter highlights that they've seen from Xavier Worthy. And I don't doubt that they're going to try to throw some deep balls to him, but deep balls are super fun and they always will be. But they make up maybe 10% of passes, 12% of passes. It's just not a league that now, I mean, the, the, uh, yards per attempt, the average, uh, depth of target just keeps going down in the league as defenses get a little more complicated, but a little more like too deep and try to prevent all that stuff. So when a team actually plays against the chiefs, they're going to play too deep safeties

and they're going to try to take away that deep shot. They know who the chiefs drafted. And that to me is just really good for rishi rice and as far as the suspension i mean roger goodell's wheel of justice we're talking about that here as well with jordan addison no one knows when that's going to happen and if you draft rice in a best ball or something and he's suspended for three games well that's 14 other games where he could be your best guy i really like rice i actually didn't think of this because i think of him as their number one receiver with the way that mahomes came to trust him last year down the stretch that he became really that guy um push comes to shove he's always going to throw it to travis kelsey but he actually seemed to really connect with rishi rice and they found ways to get him the football so i was thinking of him as more of a number one uh until i guess uh proven otherwise i wanted to show you

some of my or tell you about some of my underdog drafts that i've done but first let's talk a couple of just injuries uh is there any injuries that are sticking out well you mentioned hollywood brown i think i said to you last week i don't trust him because he gets hurt a lot and then he got hurt. But is there any injuries around the league for you that people should keep an eye on from a fantasy perspective? Yeah, that was the first play of that game even, right?

With Brown, it didn't take long for you to get to be paid off for that call. Well, one big one has been Puka Nakua with the Rams even right with Brown didn't take long for you to get to be paid off for that that call well one big one has been Puka Nakua with the Rams and that was called week to week it's still weeks from the start of the regular season then you got Sean McVay to say not a big deal should be ready for week one Nakua put up the best rookie wide receiver season ever out of nowhere last year. So he has been going all summer, late first round, pick nine, pick 10 in there. And on him, drafters haven't moved him too much. They're mostly counting on him to be ready week one and

to be fine. He goes maybe one pick later, flipping with Garrett Wilson in most of these drafts. And I'm with that. But it should be pointed out that he had lower body injuries in college that helped to keep him from being a better draft pick. So it is true that he has a history and do what know, do what you want with that. But that's obviously a big one. Every day is life on the wire in fantasy football. If we're drafting all summer, like I have been, you know, just sort of keeping an eye open for what is happening. We had Malik neighbors go down in a Giants practice the other day. Uh-oh, they're looking

at his foot. You've got pictures. Everybody's on a knee. Sometimes practice gets canceled like Rondale Moore, who had the air cast and a broken leg for Atlanta. Sounds like neighbors isn't that bad off, which is huge. I mean, that's somebody. He could be wide receiver one among the rookies. You're talking about which teams are hard to figure out at wide receiver. The Giants should not be one of them.

It should be Malik neighbors. And then who knows after that, you know, bit players. And with the Giants as well, we had Tyrone Tracy go down on Tuesday with a non-contact injury on a return. That right away sounds like a season ender, but it turns out that it wasn't. Apparently he was back in meetings later in the day, low ankle sprain, maybe a few weeks. He's not a big name, obviously, but could be, and I'm thinking he is in position to be the number two with the Giants behind Devin Singletary.

This is another example of maybe how the preseason can lie to you as they had Eric Gray have a good game as a running back in their preseason opener against Detroit, but Tracy was barely used. And to me, that's advantage Tyrone Tracy. And, you know, this could be an interesting year, of course, for returns. And we want to see which players teams are using on kick returns. Tracy was in that role. You might be in a league where at least you get those touchdowns if if that happens so um nuku is a big one that's a first round player neighbors maybe got got away with it and tracy in the later rounds a nice uh you know rookie to put some chips on uh maybe he he got away with a bad injury as well. Maybe he's okay.

Well, and with Nakua in general, I was already a little bit hesitant on him just because of regression in general. When you have one of the best seasons, as you mentioned, ever as a rookie, there's going to be a lot more attention coming your way the next year. Now, I think that Sean McVay can always get receivers open. It's just that's hard to repeat unless you're Justin Jefferson and you're an all time great wide receiver talent. I'm not sure that Nakua is quite on the same level talent wise. So I was already a little hesitant about him being banged up. I'm not really sure there, although I did see the,

the thing that analyzes the coach speak. And it said that McVay historically is very good with the timing of injuries, which I respect. I, what I've noticed about Kevin O'Connell is he's, I think he's an optimistic person. And so he's optimistic about injuries. Like,

Oh no, you know, it should be okay. It should be all right. It'll be, you know, a couple of weeks or something. It's maybe a little bit more than that,

but because he wants the guy back and, you know, he was talking about hockinson and that's another one to talk about as well and i think if you're in a best ball that's an interesting choice because i still think it's going to be like week six which maybe you stay away from him anytime early if it's that but the way o'connell talked about it sounded like, well, we might be able to get him into some stuff by the end of training camp before the season. That sounds a little more optimistic, but also I don't trust him because he's too optimistic with these guys.

So we haven't seen TJ Hawkinson do anything in training camp. So right now I would still kind of lean toward maybe past the bye week or something but the way that he talked about it was more toward maybe the beginning of the season so I think that's just kind of an interesting angle there I've talked to Sean McDermott about this kind of thing before and really like what does the coach have to gain by putting a date on it right like it's frustrating to to us for trying to predict when this happens but why rule them out you know so you end up with mcdermott is a classic example just very vague sort of details and predictions almost never like sort of whatever what the injury is and what the Bills really or any team really expects to have happen.

Yeah, the number one source on these things is never the head coach, right? At least we don't have Pete Carroll anymore who, you know, was it Chris Carson who had like kind of a career-ending injury that he was calling day-to-day? I mean, just some coaches are more trustworthy i guess if that's the word for it than others um another good thing to try to process when predicting this stuff so with mike zimmer he used to try to put timelines on it but then he said that daniel hunter had a neck tweak and he ended up out for the year and we made fun of him the entire time

to the point where he started making fun of us making fun of him about the tweak so with every injury he would say now guys it's not a tweak it's you know it's whatever else uh which was a fun cat and mouse game but then he just completely stopped putting any timelines on guys which might just be safer i think if a coach says weeks long-term or should be back pretty soon, that usually gives you a general timeline for it. Um, okay. So underdog fantasy is sponsoring the show here. Again, the promo code is purple. So if you want to sign up for some of these best ball leagues, what I like about them, Mike, is that I can jump in a bunch of them and they are very few actual dollars. So I want to tell you about a $10 six person draft that I had. And these are, these are fun when you jump into just a couple of people there. So you get a bunch of stars and you

feel like you crushed your draft. If you get too many people, then you're searching deep. That's probably what you do. So that's just the context of this draft. If you get too many people, then you're searching deep. That's probably what you do. So that's just the context of this draft. So this is going to sound pretty good, but let me, let me tell you about just kind of what I have as a lineup here. And I'll let you break down how good or bad you think this is for quarterbacks. Let's start there. I have Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. And I feel now worse about Justin Herbert because he's starting to fall into the category of getting hurt all the time.

But with Jordan Love, even though I have laughed at their we have no wide receiver one thing, I still think he's going to have a huge year. And I figured that I would put a bet on Trevor Lawrence because I picked him with pick 80. So I figured pick 80, put a bet on Trevor Lawrence because I picked him with pick 80. So I figured I pick 80. It was worth getting Trevor Lawrence just in case he actually does have the light go on and all of a sudden have this. I'm a superstar now type of season.

You said this is a 16 league, right? Yep. Yeah, sure. So you waited on quarterback if that's your group picks 41 44 and 80 were my quarterbacks how many rounds was this this is not a tournament this is a self-contained 16 yep for 10 bucks yeah on underdog sure right i so i don't know exactly how many rounds. Chargers. You got your money's worth.

The Chargers are another team that we don't know who the number one receiver is, but it's not in a good way. And they had a miserable preseason opener, and Herbert's injured anyway. So, yeah, like betting on the talent, he's super cheap. You know, in the tournament drafts on Underdog, we're trying to stack and, you know, find value versus what drafters were doing months ago even. So it's a different game you're playing in just a contained best ball league. You're not trying to win a million bucks.

You're trying to win 50 or something like that. So you can both take more chances, but also you don't have to worry about how draft values have changed since April, which in tournament play you really do, because guys will move up and down. And if you don't respect the fact that a player you like now was going three rounds earlier in the summer, Rashi Rice is a good example of this. If he doesn't get suspended, he'll continue to move up. And,

you know, months ago he was available like in the seventh round, maybe. So you, and you're playing against that in best ball, meaning you're playing against more than 600,000 teams and thousands of them pick Rashi Rice way later. So it's not such a great idea to pick them in the third although

you still want to do it anyway you know uh to your to your group i want to hear more love herbert and lawrence let's keep going yep yep uh and my thought on herbert was that maybe there's just been enough bad press that i get him there and nobody else is picking him and he'll still be the quarterback of their team uh running backs, and the guy that got injured that I'm a little concerned about now did the draft. Then that day he got injured. Thanks, Jameer Gibbs. But I still think he's going to be fine and he's going to get the football a ton. Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Devin Singletary at pick 89 and then uh tajay spears of the tennessee titans that i think is going to be

maybe a breakout player for them and that was at pick 101 and i will admit that's somewhat because last year he roasted the vikings in a preseason game so i i went for it but i i really uh and i did a lot with the running backs pick 5 29 32 29, 32. But I feel like I did really well here. And I really like Singletary because I think he's going to catch a lot of checkdowns from Daniel Jones. You pick Gibbs at five? Gibbs at five, and then Henry 29, Jacobs 32, and then the other two guys were later.

Yeah, I like Spears too, by the way. And he flashed in the preseason opener this year already as well. With Pollard there, another one to try to analyze what they're really telling you. Because they've been consistent this year with interchangeable. The word interchangeable has been used with Spears and Pollard. And in the first preseason game, they played about the same, so they might be being honest when it comes to that. I like him a lot.

Singletary, I'm not excited about, but if the Tracy injury is serious and there's just no one else they trust, he was a pretty fair free agent investment by the Giants. I just don't think there's really much upside, but you don't, you don't only, you can't live on upside alone. You've got to have guys that put a floor down,

you know, somebody maybe like Joe Mixon in his career and Singletary might be sort of a, maybe a poor man's version of that with the Giants. Yeah. And I just feel like who their quarterback is matters i mean i just don't see daniel jones suddenly having the light go on and say you know what actually i'm going to air it out like crazy this year uh it did happen for alex smith the one year after they drafted mahomes he just started pushing the ball downfield but i just don't see it all right with uh receivers

aj brown dj moore jayden re, who I've talked about, George Pickens, a little nervous about that pick now with the IU thing may be happening. Chris Godwin, Cortland Sutton, and Jordan and Cortland Sutton at pick 92. I may have fist pumped. I did like people are just ignoring Cortland Sutton. Who else is someone throwing to whether it's Bo Nix or Jared Stidham? It's going to be Bo Nton. Who else is someone throwing to, whether it's Bo Nix or Jared Stidham, it's going to be Bo Nix. Who else is he throwing to?

And I think inexperienced quarterbacks, especially throw to their first guy all the time and pick 92. I mean, I think he could end up with having a huge year. Should be wide receiver one in Denver. It's not a big, it's not much of a cost for the fantasy drafter. So yeah, I'm certainly not avoiding Sutton. wide receiver one in Denver. It's not a big, it's not much of a cost for the fantasy drafter. So

yeah, I'm certainly not avoiding Sutton. I wonder if there is someone younger there that does emerge maybe later in the season. Again, just to the strategy point, you're not playing in a tournament here where weeks 15, 16, 17 are where you win all the money. In that kind of thing, I'd rather bet on Mims or Troy Franklin even, although Franklin maybe is not off to the best start reportedly, but somebody younger later on, not to say that Sutton can't be good. I don't think there's a really high ceiling for the Broncos. Their implied point totals week to week throughout the season is one of the lowest in the league but Sutton is somebody that we've been kind of waiting for years to have really emerge and with

a new quarterback to your point about trying to find the most reliable option on the field it's a good point maybe there is a good season a good fantasy season in there for, for Cortland Sutton. I think that there's like a trend emerging already where I want to pick guys that I feel like I can predict pretty well and who have been in the league and I have a sample on, and you want to bet on the younger guys that might explode, which is probably a good strategy because if you land the Puka Nakua in LA, then nobody else has him, and you end up hitting a home run there. It's really just the format, Matt. I mean, it's important always in fantasy football to know what are the rules. Is it an underdog? Is half-point PPR?

How many receivers am I starting? All that kind of stuff does really shape your rankings. And the rookies, any position, you know, late in the season is where any of this is worth doing on underdog in any tournament. And that's why, you know, you really, I think, need to take chances. That doesn't mean you can't pick Cortland Sutton,

but you want to be thinking about, and that's why this is such a critical time of year, Whittington with the Rams is not a name I knew before this weekend. Who is Atlanta's guy? Washington, maybe. Jacksonville has a guy. One of them is Washington. I'm sorry.

But just like the absolute deep dive players, rookies, second-year guys on teams, you're not drafting all of them, but you've got to be willing to take some of those shots. I think in the late rounds, you want to find your 2021 KJ Osborne who had zero catches and then something like 50 catches the next season. Definitely that's not going to be Cortland Sutton, but I'll try. This won't be my last draft. So I'll take that strategy a little more. Maybe

I'll do like an all upside draft in a $3 league or something. So my tight ends are in Joku pits and Schultz. I feel like a joke who's going to get the ball a lot because their quarterbacks are bad and, or the, well, you know, that Watson's going to get hurt at some point. I don't know who their backup quarterback is, but he'll throw to David and joku james kyle pitts i i took a shot at it i i just have this thing about oh well this quarterback it's just going to change everything about this player i don't know if i ever really buy that but i got him at the 56th pick so i thought that was fine and dalton schultz everybody's going to be guarding all them wide receivers that tight end on those little underneath balls as they run a bunch of deep stuff. And anytime that somebody is connected with the Shanahan system, as Bobby Sloic is, watch that tight end.

They love their tight ends in the Kubiak and Shanahan system. So I felt really good. That was one of my last pick. Oh, no, that was pick 65. So maybe I was really happy about Dalton Schultz. Yeah. But overall, I think I'm pretty happy with that group. You went heavy with tight end here.

Jameis Winston is the backup in Cleveland, so that's not bad if we end up getting there. Kyle Pitts is the most hotly debated player almost in fantasy football and has been his whole career like is there the great player he was predicted to be in there he's had injury stuff and last year we're using that excuse to explain a pretty quiet year also Arthur Smith I mean I told you last week how I want to be in on all the Falcons because there is just such a long way to go. I've heard Mike Leone, a friend of mine here, Western New York from establish the run, make this point a lot. I mean, just have to, just have to realize how low their number of plays past the pass rate, everything was, I mean, just incredibly low. Not just a team that liked to run the ball, just to an extreme.

And if that just bounces to the midpoint, you have just so much potential for London and Pitts and even Darnell Mooney. The more injury, they're not deep at skilled positions at all, which if those guys stay healthy is even better for them. Because really, I mentioned a guy that scored a touchdown last week for them in Miami but there's just not a lot of other names there so I mean I can't resist Kyle Pitts I'm one of those guys too that just wants to bet on talent last week I think I mentioned that he's younger than Dalton Kincaid I was pretty sure I went and looked he's like a

year younger than Dalton Kincaid he He's just, he got, got in the league so young. So, uh, I like that about the bet on pits this year too. Okay. Grade my draft. I think you're in trouble. I don't know. I don't think I I I'm enjoying these conversations. Um, but it seemed like Gibbs was early and you definitely went the safe route with a lot of veterans. I don't think you need to invest so much in tight end. That's one where you sort of get, I'm not sure any of them is quite elite, but you make that early investment. I don't know. I have to tell you too, though, maybe that's harsh because I'm not doing any of those those drafts like what sort of the the rhythm is of a 10 of a 16 draft um next time i want to see you go you did pick aj brown i think

you said but hammer receiver earlier as we're doing in these tournaments and just sort of figure it out from there maybe a couple more uh like like a Tajay Spears pick that you made, guys like that at the running back position with there being so much uncertainty there. Gibbs already hurt. Gibbs is not somebody who we've talked about in any sort of injury context before, but it comes for everybody.

Yeah, no, it most certainly does. Okay, well, I'll try to do better next time. So what are you giving me, like a C-? I'll give you a C-. We want to see you in the mini Schnauzer 6 over here on Underdog. You want to play for $3? You can play that for $3, and there's your tournament. You can get a feel for what players are doing over there.

I've got about 50 Underdog drafts that are running right now. I'm not bragging. It's a sickness, but it's elevated me to the status of having this partnership with you. So I'm proud of it. No, this is what I want, though. I am just jumping into this fantasy stuff for the first time, really, because of the sponsorship from underdog. So I'm just figuring it out which i think most people are in my shoes as well and remember over at underdog fantasy the

promo code purple there's also going to be a link in the description that you could just click and it's a match up to 250 so make sure you do that mike thanks so much for your time this was really fun as always and we will see you next week on the purple insider fantasy football show.