Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Chris Trapasso says buyer beware on two Vikings potential draft targets

Episode Date: April 17, 2025

Matthew Coller is joined by CBS Sports draft analyst to preview next week's draft and discuss why he's saying buyer beware about two potential targets for the Vikings in the draft.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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draft analyst, Chris Trapaso, who also doubles as a golf analyst. Now I heard you national radio, uh radio talking a little golf as well. And I got my, see, this is inspired by Rory collection of the Nike hat that I wear every single day of my life. But what a weekend it was for us golf fans. Hey, it was so great. Like following that entire, entire final round with Bryson and Rory, how it transpired. Some huge shots that felt like it was the shot that was gonna catapult Rory to the

green jacket and then he would hit a bad wedge shot and then to finally win it in a playoff against Justin Rose and then to see his reaction. I mean that's what I said when I was on with DA there for CBS or like SiriusXM, CBS Sports Radio, was like the coolest and most visceral reaction that I've seen for a golfer winning a tournament in a really long time. So that was really a fun Sunday to spend that didn't have anything to do with football. Let me tie it to the Vikings here.

They said he couldn't do it folks for all of you guys who always will ask me when I do some of the chats like will the Vikings ever win a Super Bowl? And I'm like, I don't know, maybe. And if that's, you know, inspiration, I guess, that you just keep on trucking and eventually maybe you'll do it. That's the best I can do for all Vikings fans out there. So anyway, we've got a lot of fun today, something that you and I have done every year where we draft every pick

or we mock every pick up to where the Vikings select. And then we go back and forth and we debate all the options and things like that. So we're going to do that in just a moment, but I want to start out Chris with an article you wrote, which I felt personally very attacked by. So the article is draft buyer beware. And not only did you pick one of my favorite prospects for the Vikings, you made them the picture.

Not it's not only that you just named the guy, but you also put him as the poster boy for buyer beware. I'm talking about Jada Baron. You've got a list here. I want to go through of why these guys are buyer beware. But explain the corner from Texas, I've been high on the idea of the Vikings looking into him if he drops, why is it buyer beware?

Okay, so everyone that's listened, and even if you have not tuned into this draft show, we're gonna call it, during this pre-draft process, I am not a film guy only, I am not an analytics guy only. I try to blend the two and I can't say that I have, you know, a data scientist type level of understanding of the analytics. But when it comes to draft profiles

and certain thresholds that you wanna have a pretty good idea, Jaday Barron, there's a few reasons from the analytics side. His tackling efficiency was right around 7% in college. That is low. You normally want to see 9, 10, 11, 12, 13% at the defensive back position, whether you're a slot corner, outside corner, safety. Now if you're thinking, how is 7 and 9, 10%? It's a big difference.

It's not minimal, even though that's only three percentage points. It equates to a lot more missed tackles if you're at seven compared to nine or 10 percent. So that's one thing that's certainly not the most important but that is something that also checked out with me on film. I saw him missing a lot of tackles in space. He played 70 percent of his snaps at outside corner in this breakout All-American season in 2024, 29 inch arms. And there's a thought that, Oh, he's just going to bump inside, which that's probably where he will play. But a lot of the plays that he made were on the outside where he wasn't dealing

with super twitchy sudden slot receivers in the sec and then the ball production, the force and completions, you want to call them past breakups plus interceptions, which I think is a really important characteristic to look at at the cornerback position. We've talked about the box score scouting element of it, very low, right around 10% in his college career. Now, five seasons, over 240 targets in his target area. So the volume was there and it's hard to maintain that volume across five seasons, but I didn't see him making a ton of plays on the football in this breakout season. So I think he's a fine prospect. He tested well in Indianapolis. We've always talked about the athleticism and how that's pretty predictive for NFL success or lack thereof. I just don't think like this is the bona fide second corner

off the board after Travis Hunter. And that's really where it feels like Jaday Baron has ascended to over the last couple of weeks. Fair enough. I look at it much more through a one team, one defensive coordinator type of lens. So that's probably the difference. And also, I mean, I think we're a little bit on the same page of the idea that he might not go in the top 15, because that's something I've been thinking about a lot is just how overvalued some corners have been by the mock draft community in the top 15 because that's something I've been thinking about a lot is just how overvalued some corners have been by the mock draft community in the recent past. And with Baron, you know,

I am very much a numbers person. And what I've tried to do is develop my own little way of figuring out what my fit for Brian Flores, what numbers point to success in the future, and then what things that people like you write who actually do study the film of every single player in the draft. And there's one statistic that really jumped out at me with Jade Baron, and that is zone coverage grade by PFF. Ninety one point five zone coverage grade now man to man. And this would be the difference between trying to scout for any team.

Just how good is this player? He was only a 69.0 grade on man-to-man coverage, but the Vikings don't play a lot of man-to-man coverage. And I kind of look at him with his size profile as being similar to a Byron Murphy Jr. Where he's not the fastest. He's smart. He's aggressive. He can play inside outside, but he's not somebody who's going to run the four to 40 like Maxwell Harrison or something crazy like that. And he's not the guy who's a pterodactyl out there with crazy long arms,

but he can make plays on the football and he's going to be where you want him to be at the right times and make a play that screams to me. Brian Flores would like that guy. So that's why I've been higher on him than maybe you would be. Yeah, I think we just outlined both kind of schools of thought where I'm looking at it from every team perspective and that every team does not have Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator.

But the Byron Murphy comparisons, I can certainly see them because he was that, oh, is he a little bit undersized? Is he gonna play inside or outside? And he certainly excelled with Brian Flores and was better than he was early in his career in Arizona. So you looking at it strictly through the lens of the Vikings perspective and how he could fit into this defense, that completely makes sense that you would be higher on him for me, ticking the boxes from a general viewpoint.

I want long arms. I want good tackling. I want ball production, I want a big time workout. He ticked some of those boxes, but again, not as emphatically as like you're mentioning most historical top 15 cornerbacks. And plus you're a hater. That would be the other thing. If you don't like my favorite prospect, then that's the label you get. That's nothing you can do about it. So there are some guys on your list buyer beware that aren't necessarily Viking targets, but I think are interesting can do about it. So there are some guys on your list, buyer beware that aren't necessarily

Viking targets, but I think are interesting to talk about anyway. One of them here in the buyer beware is a former J.J. McCarthy teammate, Colston Loveland, who I probably get one a day where a Viking fan says, should we draft a tight end? And the answer is, I don't understand why that's a question. Like, are we bored? But anyway, enough interest in Colston Loveland from the Viking fan. Why is he a buyer beware?

So I'll be quicker on him because you're right. I don't think the Vikings are going to target a tight end or certainly him in the first round at 24. His is mostly analytics based, but he's another one. And I put the barbie wear prospects were not just the ones that the numbers jumped out at me or the film jumped out at me. They were the ones where there was a blend

where I didn't love what I saw in film, check the numbers and was like, yeah, that's kind of what I saw that I didn't think Colston Loveland was great after the catch at Michigan. I didn't see him breaking a lot of tackles. The contact balance that the George Kittles, the TJ Hockensons, uh, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelsey's have excelled at the position with, uh, he only forced eight missed tackles on 117 catches.

That's a really low miss tackle force rate. Like Sam Laporta was in the twenties at Iowa. I'm trying to think from the article. There was someone another Oh, Trey McBride is really the only one who's close and he was at like 9% But he caught almost 200 passes at Colorado State. So he had a high higher volume So that to me beyond separation if you can't create after the catch and you're playing tight end today That's a kind of a red flag for me

And then even if you're not a great can yards after the catch tight end today, that's a kind of a red flag for me. And then even if you're not a great, um, yards after the catch tight end, you gotta be good boxing out and being that ball winner down the field. He only won on 10 of his 25 contested catch opportunities, 40% for a wide receiver, you're like, okay, not great, but pretty good tight ends. They're usually between 55 and 65% if they are widely considered to be a first round pick. So I think he's a lot like maybe a Kyle Pitts, a lot like a Noah Fant, two first rounders who have been good in the NFL. But there's a lot of thoughts like that this is going to be someone who is going to revolutionize the tight end position because of how fast and dynamic of an athlete he is.

I think in today's NFL, you have to be more than just fast and have some flexibility in your lower half to excel at that specific position. Fundamentally, I would not draft a tight end in the first round period. I, there's just way many who have gone belly up and the standard for success there is really high because there's only probably five good ones. And if you draft a guy in the first round and forgo all the other key positions and he doesn't become one of the five or six best tight ends in the league, then you have completely failed at that position because the difference between a guy you draft who's a little above average and an average guy that you sign as a free agent, who has been another team's tight end too. I mean, look at even a guy like Josh Oliver.

He's a really good player. The Vikings got him for a couple million bucks in free agencies, tight end too. He can be a tight end one on a team. So you gotta be a lot better than that. And how many tight ends do we see really emerge on a second team or in their second contract? I think it's a position that takes and Hawkinson's one of

them. It takes a long time to develop and be an impact player. And I think for my money, the best tight end in the entire NFL is George Kittle and he's a fifth round draft pick. And I think we see that a lot at that position. Let's go to a guy who I think is pretty interesting, because he strikes at home in one particular way. Shamar Stewart, who crushed the NFL combine total freak

athlete, but I like to call it the Danile Hunter fallacy. The combine workout hero, Danile Hunter was that guy, and then developed into one of the best players in the NFL. I can't think of too many other guys who have done that, and that's the Trayvon Walker going number one over Aiden Hutchinson. Production at that position in college

is the best correlator to the NFL. Not your 40, not how high you jump versus your height and weight, because if you're that much of a freak and you can't produce against college production or against college offenses, then how are you doing it in the NFL? It's hard enough for guys who do produce in college to go to the NFL, start sacking people. So I would be out on Shamar Stewart entirely. I think he's the perfect guy for a buyer beware list.

And what teams don't ever seem to understand is that Denial Hunter is an outlier. You don't understand. Denial Hunter was 20 years old when he was drafted. And if you know, Denial, you know what's in his head, what's in his heart, what kind of person he is. You could see why he was the outlier. You got to be a special kind of dude to grow that much while you're in the NFL. Yeah, it is so important for an evaluator like myself, and then even more importantly

for a GM of an NFL team to not chase those outliers. There's not Josh Allen's growing on trees in every single draft. Denell Hunter's don't come around even every five to 10 years. They're a lot longer span between those types of players. And for everything to go right with a Josh Allen and a Donnell hunter, they needed to be, like you said, have the right mindset, be in the right situation right away, not be forced into a certain role and have high expectations immediately in that, and both of those players didn't have that.

So with Shamar Stewart, we're seeing that he might be the second edge rusher, third edge rusher off the board inside the top 20. And exactly what you mentioned is why he's on my buyer beware list that has a 10 out of 10 relative athletic score. Love that. That's great. That's an emphatic check mark with a Sharpie. I don't know why his pressure rate then at Texas A&M was like around 10 or 11%. Like that's super duper low. You want 15, 16, 17, 18, even get up to 20. James Pierce in this draft class, my number one prospect in this class, the past two seasons at Tennessee, 21% pressure rate. He was twice as likely to get to the quarterback than Shemar Stewart, another big time athlete as well. So I think, I don't think Sh Shamar Stewart, another big-time athlete as well.

So I think, I don't think Shamar Stewart is a terrible, like he's gonna be a Vernon Goldstone out of the league in three years, but he's definitely falls into that workout warrior category that the team is gonna fall in love with him because of the traits, that's how the first round goes, but is just nowhere close in terms of the skills and the nuance and the refinement that you need at the edge rusher spot to be successful. Like you're mentioning, if you're not doing it against SEC tackles, it is a giant step up to NFL tackles. Even though we say that the SEC is so close to the NFL,

it's not in terms of competition, especially in the trenches. So I think Shamar Stewart, you know, solid player, but nowhere near top 15 overall talent, which is probably where he's going to go. It's funny that you mentioned his pass rush win rate. It's not that much better than Kenneth Grant. Yeah, exactly.

There you go. 120 pounds. Yeah, that's kind of funny. So you have, uh, Michael Williams here. I don't have a lot to say about him. I think, yeah, not a guy the Vikings would really look at, but same sort of deal just did not produce at the level. But someone the Vikings could consider and I think also could drop in this draft is Will Johnson.

You're really telling on yourself when you're like, I'll do everything except for run the 40. And you're like, but why? Why is that? Because you're so. However, I will say from a Vikings perspective, a guy who makes a ton of plays on the football, maybe a little bias because I saw him pick six against the Gophers. I went to the game against Michigan and he picked off a pass

and took it for a touchdown. Nice play. But playmaking on the football and instincts are more important here than they are raw speed. So would that make you think twice in terms of buyer beware for the Vikings or is it even for the Vikings buyer beware? I think for the Vikings still buyer beware, but what you laid out would, would make it a little bit more palpable if they signed him or a little bit more digestible, I should say where the playmaking

ability and just attacking the Cumbrax and the in breaking routes that we've seen have gotten a lot of interceptions for the Byron Murphys and the Kam Bynums in the past that I think he'd be a better fit in Minnesota than a lot of other places because of that because on film you see him make those interceptions he had a pick six against USC in a big game early in the season before his injury but you also see balls over his head because he's planting and driving on those routes he wants to make big plays i think he had eight or nine interceptions in 32 games at Michigan which is a really high number just in terms of turning over the football that's first round caliber a few other things that are a little bit concerning and we've talked about it. Tackling is not a forte and I would say in 2024 it was really bad before he got injured. Now there's some thoughts and I've talked to a few scouts during the pre-drift process

that mentioned, oh he was already kind of dealing with the injury before he went out and he was just very hesitant to throw his body around because there was times where and I think I Probably said this before in the show where I'm like Why was he like literally just like trying to get blocked there and like not fighting off that block whatsoever? And then oh he tried to make that play but just clearly just dove at the feet and knew that was not gonna be a tackle For some defensive coordinators, that's a huge problem. Others not so much the talon is there I am a little concerned about his speed and like you said at the outset here For some defensive coordinators, that's a huge problem. Others, not so much. The talent is there. I am a little concerned about his speed. And like you said at the outset here, like the fact that he

worked out and claimed he was fully healthy, but didn't run the 40 raises the eyebrows a little bit and, uh, test or showed up in Indianapolis with shorter arms than expected. I think he had an arms in a 30, 31 inch range where he was kind of billed at this as this Patrick Surtan 2.0 who's like 61 205 32 33 inch arms. That's not really Will Johnson's bill. They have the same number as Patrick Surtan in college. It made some big plays and was a big recruit. I think he's a good player and I actually think somewhere from like 24 to pick 30 maybe even into the second round completely fine. But like seeing like Panthers at number eight overall, like I don't think

he's that caliber of a prospect to where his draft position has seemingly swelled over the last couple of months. Something I know about Brian Flores and his secondary players, probably everybody, is, I don't know if you ever saw this study, Darrell Morey did this interview one time about how scouts would always overvalue players that were like them.

So if you were a if you were a three and D, the scouts always loved. Darrell Maury was the GM of the Rockets. He the scouts who were three and D players always overvalued the three and D players. I think that this plays into the success of Brian Flores that the man himself has got that dog in him. And I think he loves players who got that dog in him. Like, that's how he identifies like a Josh Mattel is an Ivan pace. And if you're talking about somebody who is trying to avoid making tackles, that's just not that doesn't sound like I mean,

because if you look at Mackay Blackman, I remember when we discussed that pick and how different it was from the consensus. But then when you watch him back, you're like, yeah, that guy's small, but he goes after people. He makes tackles. He gets in the backfield. I think that he's going to want players like that who, even if they miss a tackle, but they're making a hustle play and effort play a physical play,

they're going to look at them a little closer so that I think this one, this one is a buyer beware for the Vikings. And sometimes we see these guys throughout history of football where it's like a Marcus Peters thing. You like to jump routes and you get picks, Trayvon digs. Does that mean that you're providing the most possible value to your team on a play to play basis? Because picks are important, but they throw at you a hundred times a year, right?

So there's a very much a balance with that, but a great, sorry, go ahead. No, I was going to say that you mentioned McKay Blackman and it instantly brought me back to our conversation with him. And I wanted to check the numbers in college at USC, McKay Blackman, not nearly as much of a specimen in terms of his weight as Will Johnson, his college tackling efficiency was 10.6%. That's really good. You want to be eight, nine, 10%. He was almost to 11. Will Johnson's at Michigan was 6.3. That's one of the lowest college tackle efficiency rates of literally any cornerback that I have in my resin database.

So again, when you get to the late first round into second round, third round, these players don't have all the check marks and that's fine. You can say, Hey, look, it's a third rounder. We've got to work on his tackling to see Will Johnson getting again, top 10, top 15, top 20 buzz. And like, this is the next Patrick Surtan. I just have to strip away some of that and say, well, he's not a great tackler.

He's not quite as long as Patrick Sertan. He makes a lot of plays. That's a huge check mark on his profile. But even compared to Mackay Blackman, someone who he has a lot more physical ability than, the tackling wasn't anywhere in the same realm in terms of how reliable they were in that regard. Okay, before we get into doing the first 23 picks and we'll rapid fire them

so we can have a long time to discuss what the Vikings would do at 24 under this mock scenario. I saw that Todd McShay mocked Jalen Milro being drafted in the first in a trade with the Vikings was his move. What do you think of that? So there would be the Giants trading up with the Vikings swapping 24 and 34. Like he's moving back to 34 and taking Benjamin Morrison at 34 and Milro going in the first are this,

nobody could figure out what's going to happen with these quarterbacks, which makes me think that there's going to be one first round quarterback or one. And then another one at 20 something or whatever. It just feels like when we haven't been able to figure it out and there's a wide range like this, there are people have Milro in the fourth and then he's mocking Milro in the first on a trade up. Nobody knows nothing. So you're telling me that Desmond Ritter and Malik Willis and Sam Howell and Matt Carell are not going to go in the first round because there was hype 2022.

You can go back and watch our video or listen to that podcast that there was, oh, this is and one went in the first round and he was a bust. There was like no good quarterbacks from that class. So that is really fascinating. Jalen Milroy was going to be at the draft in Green Bay. So that added a little bit of intrigue. Maybe that kind of sparked that. um, you know how I am. And we are on the same page with trade backs.

Like I think even when you're a team that has, as loaded of a roster as the Vikings stick to the philosophy of getting more roles at the table. And you said, Benjamin Morrison, he's more of a man coverage guy than what you've hinted at how, like in terms of how much. Man coverage frequency Brian Flores likes to utilize but talk about just being able to just say you follow that receiver right there all around the field he can do that and the ball skills are really good when they did decide to throw in his direction better tackler than Will Johnson too there's just the injury like there is

with Will Johnson like there is with Savon Revel from ECU that's why the cornerback there is with will johnson like there is with savan revel from ease from ecu That's why the cornerback spot is a little bit murky But I would certainly like the vikings doing that to get another pick Um because going into any draft you don't want to be in 26 or 27 and go Man, we only pick four players. We don't have that young stockpile of cheap talent It's important to have five six seven eight nine ten picks every couple years I think i've gotten to the point where I mean, I have no idea. Jalen Milro, what I want him to be is Cordell Stewart. I want him to be this guy who plays wide receiver running back quarterback.

And then we'll see if he develops that. I think that would be pretty cool. But I've got to the point with the Vikings where I think with certain positions, if you want a defensive tackle, you should take it at 24 because just the better guy you can get, the better chances you are. If you like Nolan, if you like Carmen, just take them. Same with Starks, if you want them, take them at 24. Don't worry about it. But if you're interested in a corner and there's like five guys who might be there in the early part of the second round and revel visited the Vikings probably a medical thing I don't know if Morrison has or

not but that's probably the way to go about it if they are interested in corner at that position and there's some other spots where they should just stick and pick yeah so I've gotten so many questions about the bills and what they could do in this draft at 30 and they're in the defensive tackle market as well and there's and they're also in the cornerback market and I have answered a lot of questions and it kind of pertains to the Vikings as well with what you just mentioned that where I would want the bills to go is D tackle in round one because I think in round one most of the D tackles who are picked especially the ones who ultimately become quality players, have pass rush ability.

Once you get into rounds 2, 3, 4, yes Chris Jones was the second rounder, he was invited to the draft in 2016, probably obviously should have been the first rounder, but in general, once you get into round 2, 3, 4, even in this class, you can get quality defensive tackles, but they're not going to have a college pressure rate of 10, 11, 12, 13%. Derek Harman was at 11%. Even TJ Sanders really good. Omar Norman lot, another one from Tennessee. Um, those types of players, it's hard to find those at that position later. I think cornerback.

Yes, you can say the better corners are usually picked early, but in this class, because of the injury question marks, we don't know where teams have them medically. You're absolutely right that I feel like early in round two, some of those presumed to be first round talents could slip and be available for the Vikings. So if we're looking at it, not knowing, and we're gonna run through this exercise in a minute,

but not knowing where the first 23 picks, how they'll go, I just think philosophically going D tacklele, even this, even in this loaded defensive tackle class to get the best pass rusher at that position. You know, obviously after someone like a Mason Graham would make the most sense and just in terms of team building to get the best player at that position. Well, let's figure it out what the Vikings are going to be looking for. So wait, that's John a Baron, because I was gawking at his incredible statistics. But here is our PFF mock draft simulator board.

But the thing is, this time we're not going to sim. We are just going to mock. So we're going to make the picks and then we're going to decide what the Vikings are going to do. We're going to rapid fire through it. I don't think either one of us has to spend any time with number one. We both agree. Cam Ward's the number one pick. Yes, you can just punch that in. Yes, punch it in. All right, so I will send it over to you now for the number two pick, the Cleveland Browns on the board. Doesn't this feel more and more likely to just be Travis Hunter that the draft is really going to start at pick three.

That's just how the vibe that we're getting until we get that Daniel Jeremiah or Adam Schefter rumor like two days before the draft feels like Hunter is the best overall player in the class. The Browns have a million needs and they're just going to pick him and say, just go out there and play and be the Travis Hunter that you were at Colorado. I apologize to Travis Hunter. Who's been one of my favorite college players to watch for having to play for the Cleveland Browns, but he will go there in Cleveland.

I'm going to still give Abdul Carter to the New York giants because I don't think they're taking Cheddar Sanders with the number three overall pick. We've talked about that. I think he is going to slide down the board a bit more. And also why draft him when you just brought in Russell Wilson and Jamis Winston to save your jobs. So Abdul Carter goes to the New York Giants. Now we are at the New England Patriots. So, which as we get further down the list,

I want to ask you if we want to throw in some major surprises because we've seen them in the past. We've seen Andrew Thomas in 2020, Michael Penick goes last year in the top 10. That was like a bomb went off in the middle of the draft. We were shocked at that. But I think this is still going to be Will Campbell because Drake, May entering year two, they had a terrible offensive line last season. The short arms are scary, but the film was clean three straight seasons in the SEC

Quality pass protector good run blocker. I'm gonna go will Campbell for the Patriots Well, here's what I would say about surprises. There are no rules There are no laws that bind us to mocking the same way everyone else mocks So just I mean, this is rapid-fire pick who you think is going to go there and we'll get to number 24. So number five, but I'm not going to go crazy here. I'm going to pick Mason Graham to the Jacksonville Jaguars because I think all this stuff is happening. You never know.

But there was a lot of predictable things for last year early on, like neighbors. Marvin Harrison, the three quarterbacks, like we saw that coming before the draft really started. I think this is where it begins to get interesting. You are up with the Las Vegas Raiders. So I think I misspoke saying like, oh, are we thinking that the draft really starts at pick three? Yeah, maybe there's some intrigue with the Giants,

Abdul Carter versus Shadrur Sanders. This stretch, six, seven, eight, nine, this could be, Shadrur Sanders could be in one of these picks or he could be not in one of these picks. We can see Ashton Gentry. That's what I'm going to go with here. I think for as much as, um, I don't know if a new regime was like, hey, let's pick a running back inside the top six.

I feel like this is a Las Vegas team with new ownership. Tom Brady is the minority owner. There's there's Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, Chip Kelly has a long history with running backs, featuring them at Oregon and with the Eagles. They're going to go ashton gentry at six. OK, that makes a lot of sense. And Pete Carroll is not building for the future, my friend. He likes to run the ball. That's his thing.

You're right. He wants to win right now. Yes. All right. The New York Jets, I have done absolutely zero studying of the New York Jets. Let's see. They're the hardest team to mock for in the first round. And that's someone that's done a thousand mock drafts the last five months. And this is where it is helpful for PFF to show us the analysis of the players that are being taken the most in the simulations. Armand Memboo is the player who's being taken the most times. Tyler Warren. They're just crazy enough to take Tyler Warren here, but I don't think so. I think teams know that you better pick an offensive tackle at the top of the draft. So I'm going to go Armand Memboo to the jet. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. That's what I think they should ultimately do. They have not a good offensive line

Panthers at eight so their team a lot of needs wide receiver being a big one. Are they gonna help out? Bryce young who had this insane in season resurgence that no one saw coming like you showed their PFFs most picked player is Jalen Walker who? Kind of a tweener linebacker, edge rusher, very explosive, Dan Morgan, their GM, former defensive guy. I'm going to actually go Ted Arroa McMillan here just because there were thoughts that they were going to maybe swing the trade for T Higgins. That didn't happen.

And building around your quarterback matters more than anything else. That's a fine pick. Man, they had the worst defense in terms of yards allowed ever last year. I mean, there's still a team that needs a lot of rebuilding. They signed some defensive players. They need everything, which means now we're not doing trades down. I think Carolina would be a team that would want to

trade down. Yes. If a team wants to do Sanders, that's the spot because the Saints here. And I'm interested to see what you do. The Saints here, and then there's just the added flair of it's an NFC South team that could kind of screw over one of its rivals. You're right that that is, we've talked about the Vikings at 24 for the longest time. That is the first real clear trade down destination, the Panthers from eight.

So I'm going to go a little bit crazy here off the board and not take Shador Sanders to the New Orleans Saints because my bet is that, or at least from from my mocking that should door is just not as high as people think he is. And I am going to go with a surprise. James Pierce, the New Orleans Saints. Yes. That, uh, their best edge rusher, Kim Jordan is 127 years old.

No disrespect to Steve Jordan's son, but they need everything. They are a horrible football team. I know they just resigned Chase Young, but I think he's going to be the best player on their board in this scenario. So I will take James Pierce, shocking the world and they are just left in no man's land at quarterback,

but they've got freaky edge rushers to work with Pierce to the Saints. Like I said earlier, he's my number one player in this class. I would absolutely love that bears are fascinating. They're probably the second hardest team to mock for because you have Ben Johnson there. See like, look at how much uh how close the disparity is with Tyler Warren 14.5 percent of the picks have been him. Aston Genti who's not available here 12.4. Malachi Starks 11.2. So there's not like a guy at 40 percent and then everyone else is below. I've thought about offensive line but they added so many pieces up front. They

have uh Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright. I think someone on the defensive side. Why, why don't we go Mike Green from Marshall? Because they need a bookend to Montez Sweat in Chicago. I like it. Makes a lot of sense. They need pass rushing talent. I remember we made the joke last year that I had never heard of any of their, or maybe it was two years ago, but that I'd never heard of any of their guys up front. And I think that sort of still applies outside of Montez Sweat. So Mike Green from Marshall,

hugely productive edge rusher makes sense for them. Now San Francisco is on the clock. A lot of, in terms of the most drafted, a lot of corner here, Baron, Will Johnson, they lost Tvarious Ward. They are a team though, that loves themselves a defensive tackle who can get in the backfield. So I am going to say that they reach here and they go after Walter Nolan, the defensive tackle from Mississippi because they lost Javon Hargrave, They lost Malik Collins and they like interior pressure to go along with Nick Bosa,

Walter Nolan to the San Francisco 49ers. Now they could go wide receiver since they traded away Debo, but they did Ricky Pearsall last year. So I'm going to stick with the DT there for San Francisco. Yeah, they lost a lot of juice on their interior and those two players Hargrave and Collins were really explosive upfield players I don't want to say that they were the reason that Nick Bosa has become such an elite pass rusher But they certainly helped draw some attention away from him

So I think keeping Nick Bosa in his prime which he certainly still is would make a lot of sense Dallas Cowboys So there's early in the process, I was like, this is going to be Ashen Gentie. And then I was like, no, it's going to be Tet Macmillan. This point would be tough because both of those players are off the board. This could be the ceiling for Matthew Golden, who by the looks of it, by PFF's analysis of how many Mocs players have been picked to them. It's Matt Golden is number two at almost 16% behind Teterow and McMillan. It's kind of a team that I mean I guess this is obvious with them picking at 12. They have a lot of needs. I'll go Matthew Golden. I could see Jerry Jones staying

and understanding that staying local would draw a lot of fanfare. That's a lot of the times with the Cowboys picks are ultimately probably too focused on. So I'm going to go Matthew Golden is kind of a surprise. Really early pick after that big combine. And it's very Jerry Jones like to just say, give me the guy who ran the four to nine. The the the rocket ish mal of his day. I am not we haven't really talked about Golden. I'm just not a Matthew Golden guy.

There are so many wide receivers who run that four, three or less, and everyone falls in love with them. And you're like, wait a minute, did you? Because he's not. If you ran a four, two, why did he have crazy production? And yeah, it's not bad production, but it's certainly it was all in the last six games. Yeah, it was. Yeah. It was a in the last six games. Yeah, it was. Yeah, it was a little ballgame bias.

I think with Matthew Golden. Yes, so I'm down on that idea. The Miami Dolphins are on the clock. It appears that they want to trade Jalen Ramsey, which makes me think that they have a cornerback that they love here, but also they had their left tackle retire recently. So they're in a tough spot. They're a down bad. They're a team that would probably want to trade down.

I might go offensive tackle here though. It is a offensive head coach and protecting the quarterback is really important. I am going to go with and I see Calvin Banks getting drafted a lot, but I'm going to go with and I see Calvin Banks getting drafted a lot, but I'm going to go with Josh Simmons the left tackle from Ohio State to the Miami Dolphins. That would make sense just very quickly. They have Patrick Paul who they picked, I believe last year, second or third round, big time athlete out of Houston. Austin Jackson, a 2020 first rounder. They have their short term options at both of those spots, but long term, Austin Jackson hasn't really lived up to the hype. So to have someone to just keep the pipeline along the offensive line for a Mike McDaniel system, I think makes a lot of sense. Yeah. I just think Jackson's just a guy, very much just the guy, uh, onto the Colts.

All right. So this one, I'm going to make it quick. I will not rant and rave here. I think this would be too early for him just in terms of my evaluations, but it would make sense scheme wise. Tyler Warren, the tight end from Penn State to help out, whether it's Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson, to give them that really focal point of the offense in the passing game. I have very little to say about the Colts, but I wish them all the best. The Atlanta Falcons. This is all defense, all edge rusher, and that makes a ton of sense for them. Green is already off the board. Pierce is already off the board. I don't see Jihad Campbell as being a guy that is a pure rusher. They need that. So I'm going to go with Donovan as a rock who out of Boston College, maybe a

little bit of a reach, but a very, very productive edge rusher defensive end. They play four, three type. So he's the guy. Yeah. Believe it if you want or maybe not, but everything that I've gathered on Twitter, really just following the tea leaves there that he's going to apparently go a lot earlier because of his intangibles, the interviews and all that during the pre-draft process. All right. Really productive too. Yeah. Cardinals.

Cardinals at 16. So I would have originally said, oh, they have to pick someone along the defensive line, but they bring back, uh, Kaleus Campbell. They signed Josh Sweat. They signed Delvin Tomlinson. Like they knew too, like, uh, our defensive line is really, really bad. So I don't think they'll go in that direction. I'm going to pick one of my buyer beware players.

I am going to go Jaday Baron for as much as Will Johnson would maybe make a little bit more sense in terms of that classic outside corner. Jaday Baron has just no injury coming or like he's not coming off an injury. So there's no injury concerns. I think that would be maybe even the floor for Jaday Baron. Okay, on to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Looks like a lot of defense for them on the distribution of, uh, draft picks here in the simulator. Um, green is off the board. Nolan's off the board. Kenneth Grant here might be interesting, but also do they want for their new defensive system, a dynamo like a Malachi Starks or a Jahad Campbell. And I'm going to say yes, that they will take Jahad Campbell here. Very dynamic, intriguing player, somebody that if the Vikings are going to take a weird pick that we didn't expect,

he would be a guy that I toss out there. I just think that when you're rebuilding a defense, you're looking for some versatility and some talent and Campbell has those things. Yeah, that would have been my pick for the Seahawks, which is a little glimmer of what probably happens a lot during the actual draft. Seahawks are one of those teams, new regime, new headco- or new quarterback, not a new head coach, but a new quarterback. They've totally, totally changed and turned the chapter from the Pete Carroll era. No DK Metcalfe there anymore. They have Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp. I feel like Edgerusher was in need, but a lot of the top players are off the board. This could probably be Calvin Banks because

Charles Cross, Abraham Lucas, their two tackles quality players. They were picked in the same draft, so it's going to be hard for them to extend both of those players. Banks can start at guard and eventually as a contingency plan play tackle in the long term future. I don't know the last time the Seattle Seahawks had a good offensive line. So take another swing Seattle Seahawks. We are a pick 19. So we are closing in on the Vikings pick here. We will go to the Tampa Bay Bucks. A lot of defense going to them in draft simulations.

Makes sense to me. Looks like front seven type of players. So let's see. Jalen Walker, does that make sense to you here? It does make sense. They have Levante David coming back, but he can be kind of a mentor for Walker. And then they can get some- He's 100, yeah.

Yeah, and they can get some edge rushing presence from Jalen Walker early in his career as well. That'd be a good pick. Sounds good. Onto the Denver Broncos, where the most picked guy is O'Marian Hampton. That's interesting. Whoa. Okay, it is.

Which is funny. And we talk about this, that I try to do my grades, especially at the premier positions as early as possible. And I, for as much as I try not to let any bias seep in, I mean, it probably happens, I'm human, but it's funny that like early in the pre-draft process, there was a lot of buzz for Omarion Hampton, like, oh yeah, he's gonna be a first rounder.

He haven't heard anything. There's been no Daniel Jeremiah tweet or an Adam Schefter tweet about that he's gonna go in the first round, but yet he is still the most mocked player to the Vikings here at 20 Broncos. You mean? Yeah. Or Broncos.

I'm sorry. You know what? I'm going to go instead. I'm going to go Colston Loveland that I think they need. They need. Wait, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. They, I totally forgot that they signed Evan Ager.

My bad. Let's go. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. They, I totally forgot that they signed Evan Agar. My bad. Let's go. Oh, Marion Hampton. Let's get Sean Payton and Bo Nicks a feature back that can be featured in the screen game and take some of the pressure off Bo Nicks in year two. All right. Does Pittsburgh take a quarterback? Do I want Pittsburgh to take a quarterback? I don't think that Pittsburgh wants to do Sanders Jackson dark to me is just not a first round pick

no matter how much people are trying to make that happen. So I'm going to go with no. And I also am not buying the Jalen Milrow late hype to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I'm going to say that Aaron Rogers or Mason Rudolph are the quarterbacks for the Steelers and that they are going to go in a different direction with a player who matches up with Mike Tomlin's mentality, high IQ, dynamic.

I know where you're going. Could play up at the line of scrimmage, could play back and a potential target for the Vikings goes off the board with Malachi Starks to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I just don't think that these teams, and we saw this in other drafts. We saw it with Will Levis, where if teams don't believe in a guy, they're not gonna take him at quarterback, even if they need a quarterback.

We can agree or disagree with that philosophy, but that's just how it has been recently. So I will say Melchized Starks to the Steelers. Now we get to the Chargers. Okay, this is Colston Loveland. I was mixed up with my AFC West teams. They both could use tight end, but the obvious connection, Colston Loveland, Michigan, recruited by Jim Harbaugh. Okay, now we are at the pack. The Green Bay

Packers who have been, oh, we don't need a number one wide receiver. We've got a bunch of great number three A's. They'll all be fantastic and wonderful. And guess what? That surprisingly didn't work. Actually, it usually works when you have a bunch of great receivers anyway. So I think this is a receiver. But the question is, is it burden? Is it a Bucca or is it someone else is a wild card, somebody that they like? I think there's a massive drop off after a burden and a Buka or is it someone else is a wild card somebody that they like?

Uh, I think there's a massive drop off after a burden and a Buka to the next best, but you never know. I think that it's burden because they throw a lot of screens, uh, with Jordan love and, and Matt Lafleur, that man knows how to screen. So let's go Luther burden to the green Bay Packers. They finally do the thing and draft a wide receiver. And that leaves us folks at the 24th overall pick. So let me read you who the analysis has as the most likely picks to the

Vikings or the picks that have been made the most in the draft simulations by Vikings fans. And then we'll look at who is on the board. So Walter Nolan is already off. Malachi Starks is off. Kenneth Grant is available though. Oh, Marion Hampton. What are we doing here folks? And Derek Harman. I guess that must've been earlier

before they signed Jordan Mason. And Derek Harman who is also on the board. So here's our options. Best options by PFF are Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant, Amika Agbuka, Omar Norman Lot, Gray Zable, Kevin Winston is rated kind of high on here, Trey Amos, Nick Scorton is maybe not a guy. I don't even know if I'm pronouncing that right.

Shamar Stewart we didn't take so far, but not a guy the Vikings would be looking at. Benjamin Morrison, and then we're kind of down into very clear second rounders. So Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant, uh, Amika, Umar, Norman lot, gray's able, and Tyler Booker also somebody that is not rated high by PFF, but he's also available as well. That the Vikings could look at my friend.

We got a lot of freaking options. We do. And we've said that. Have we not beaten this drum the entire draft season that especially as things kind of crystallize post-combine, we're like, uh, there's going to be a bunch of corners, a bunch of D tackles, uh, maybe even some safeties. I mean, Nick, a man worry still on the board. We didn't even mention him.

Oh yeah. Yeah. And where did, and where do they have, where does PFF have Derek Harmon? Cause he's not on this list available. A little bit. Yeah. It must be a little bit lower here. Okay. They have him at his rank. His rank is 42.

Average. ADP is 32. So let's, let's put our minds together here. I will just tell you off the top of my head where I like who I have graded higher. I have a man worry probably the highest graded player available regardless of position at D tackle. And I said earlier, I think just being able to get

the pass rushing ability and upside at D tackle in round one, that's when you want to get it. Cause after that, it's a significant drop off in likelihood to get a great pass rushing defensive tackle. It would go Derek Harmon and then Kenneth Grant to me in terms of players who are available and they're likely to be viewed by the rest of the league to be a 24th overall pick or a late first rounder. Some other names here, Maxwell, Harrison, Siobhan, Ravel. I mentioned Booker, but I haven't Jackson. Yeah. Was that Ravel, Ravel Booker, but I haven't Jackson. Yeah.

Was that Revelle Revelle, which I guess I didn't finish my thought. I was saying, let's put our heads together because that's how I view those players. You can edit how you view them and then sprinkle in how the how you think the Vikings would feel about them, utilize them, value them here at Pick 24. So there's I'm of two minds here because in one way I see nine, 10 players that I'd walk away and go good pick Minnesota Vikings. And at the same time, there is one guy that I know is not rated quite as high

on here that I think is a total difference making type player that could change a D line for a long time. And that is Derek Harmon. I mean, when I look at his pass rush win rate by PFF 17.6% 91 true pass set grade. That means when they're on third and long and he's a good run stopper. I know he's got some missed tackles, but that's because he's in the backfield all the time. This guy has high character. He's the right size, six foot five and over 300 pounds.

Kenneth Grant, I think is also another guy who could be a game changer, but Harmon as a pass rusher is just a freak. So we could really do two different scenarios here. If I'm sticking and picking, my guy is Harmon. Is yours, Emen Warre? Man. and pick in my guy is Harmon is yours. MN war. Right. The man it's the traits with MN war. A are so tantalizing, but I was about to say, yeah, my pick would be Derek Harmon

too, just because I think the scheme and the development that we've seen Brian Flores create out of thin air with some of these players that were second, third, fourth round picks on their second teams, not, or even undrafted guys. I think he would, that the Vikings would feel okay with addressing safety later, especially with Harrison Smith coming back and having Josh Metellus, um, like already in those entrenched positions at safety. So I think Derek Harmon would make a lot of sense because you can't get 17.6% pass rush, win rate at defensive tackle after this selection. I mean, you could trade back and hope he's still there. And I think we'd probably agree a trade back scenario seems very likely, um, at this point, but if we're sticking and picking, I would be completely fine

with Derek Harmon, adding him to this defense and again, not asking him to be Aaron Donald right away, given the veterans that this team has brought in. So let me be clear that if it is me, if I am the general manager and not quasi, if they say, sorry, quasi, uh, that's, that's enough. This guy's done a lot of great podcasting. Put him in the mix. I'm picking a book and I'm apologizing to absolutely nobody for having all sorts of wide receivers.

But if we're trying to predict which player they would stick and pick, I think Harmon is the best player with the best fit for the Vikings. So here's the other question. If we agree on that, how far could they go back? Like that's another question. If I, if I rapid fire this off, how far could they go back? Could they go back? If we did a trade, I'm not going to mess around too much with the trade downs at this moment, but like, could they go back to third? Well, the bills probably aren't trading 30 though. Could they trade back to 30?

The thing is, yeah, they probably could, but I think it's risky because I'm looking at some of those teams. And again, I've done a million mock drafts. Um, the Houston Texans at 25 address the offensive line, probably going to go defense. Maybe they could pick one of the receivers. line probably going to go defense. Maybe they could pick one of the receivers. Rams, maybe a quarterback, maybe someone at linebacker, so that's fine. I think Ravens, cornerback is a huge need, opposite Nate Wiggins. They have Myerlyn Humphrey in the slot, not really anything else. They've always loved to address edge and defensive tackle early, so you could lose one of those, you know, a Derek Harmon or Kenneth Grant there. Detroit Lions, even though they brought in DJ Reed,

the cornerback from the Jets, it wouldn't be shocking if they go defense. And the Washington commanders are a team that needs defense. So that's not to say that all of those picks, two pick 30 will just be like six picks in a row of all defensive players, but it's not like, oh, hey, here's where a quarterback is going to go. This team desperate, like desperately needs wide receiver.

This team desperately needs tight end. I think if you're looking more defense for the Vikings trading back any further than 30, I think would get a little bit dicey. I agree. I think 30 would be the target. Also. I mean, we are talking about defense, but you could also look at the office of guard position where they have their pick of the litter that none of the

guards have been taken. You know, a guy that we did not mention at all that actually I kind of overlooked. I overlooked here is really Donovan Jackson that he's been mocked this high and he's still on the board here as well. I think you'd be pretty happy with trading down and getting Zabel or Donovan Jackson. I didn't even think of that either. Yeah. If that's if we're going to talk about that. If you're if Kwesi and Kevin O'Connell and the whole scouting department

coaching staff is like, all right. Yeah, we love Derek Harmon. We love Kenneth Grant. And we've talked about this, that whatever player a team ultimately picks, they normally say, oh, that was the guy that we wanted the whole time. We're so happy to get him. When in reality, there's like 15, 20 prospects that I really like a lot. And then if I was a GM, I'd be happy with,

if they like the defensive tackles that we've outlined, if they like and could see Will Johnson being a big time playmaker in time in the defense, great. Jaday Baron, maybe Revel, maybe Benjamin Morrison. And then you throw in maybe Donovan Jackson, maybe Tyler Booker or Gray Zabel. And I think for me, someone that's a lot lower on Tyler Booker, if you're telling me this Vikings team gets Tyler Booker and some extra picks, that makes that selection a lot easier to swallow for someone who's not quite as high on him.

So if you throw in the offensive players and maybe that safety or the deep sleeper, wide receiver that our players that they would be or positions that they would be happy with addressing in round one, then yes, trading back to 30 would not be overly dicey for this team. We just don't know where their priorities stack in terms of positions in this first round.

And I don't want to ignore the possibility of Kenneth Grant, because just talking to some people I've heard there's a lot of teams that are really high on Kenneth Grant because of the upside. The fact that he has rare movement skills at that position, worst case scenario is a great nose tackle. Best case scenario, he develops into a Dexter Lawrence type who gets after the passer. So that might be their pick too. I think what this really tells us this exercise is that so Kenneth

Grant is probably the guy here or will Johnson just looking at their rank on PFF and average draft position. Those are the two that are the fallers in this draft because Johnson is 15 for his average draft position Grant is 20. So those are the two players that like, okay, they were supposed to go higher, but we just didn't find a fit for them. I think what it tells you is it will be somebody. We don't know exactly who it's going to be or what position it's going to be,

but that's what's going to make this decision hard for the Vikings of whether to trade down because more likely than not, someone that they have graded in the top 15 is Going to leak through based on other teams needs to where they are So they'll have to decide what kind of sacrifice do we want to make by trading back? And is there an opportunity to still trade back and get our top 15 guy and maybe this is obvious But this is the last thing I'll say on this is that? Depending on who they pick or what position they pick, if it's a D tackle, he's kind of moving into

that Dallas Turner type of red shirt season where you play 300 to 500 snaps and maybe don't make a huge impact, but you're fine with it. If they draft a corner, he's playing right away. If they draft a wide receiver, he's third or fourth in the pecking order in terms of targets, but maybe could be very helpful to JJ McCarthy. If they drafted Donovan Jackson, Tyler Booker or Gray Zabel, you're the starting left guard most likely, and you're going to play 600 to 900 snaps potentially in year one. If you're a first round guard, you're going to play instantly. So it would be really interesting to see. And that's something else to think about. Where are the Vikings minds in terms of how much are they going

to put on this rookie first rounders plate in year one? So let's wrap it up with this because we just said a lot of things about this scenario. A lot man when we get there to 24 and of course I'll be live all night long through the first round, whether they draft somebody or not, uh, it's going to be dramatic. So let's do official with this scenario, what we would do, what we think they'll do. So for me, of course, I would pick the wide receiver and I would just say, JJ McCarthy, you're welcome. Sorry, you have to throw to an Ohio state guy, but she'll get over it.

Ohio state guy, but she'll get over it. And what I think they would do is that they would trade back and take maybe Revelle or Booker. Okay, they're the top corner that they have or the yeah, because I think Harmon will go here if they are making a trade out of it. I think they would trade out of that spot if they could, what, how, what, what would you do and what do you think they would do in this scenario? So I flirted with the idea just in this mock draft sim that we just did with Nick and man worry. I think if he were there at 24 and everything I said, still,

I'm still sticking by it, that Brian Flores can create productivity in the back seven, unlike any other defensive coordinator, or as well as any defensive coordinator in football. I want to see him with one of the most explosive safeties instantly in the NFL and how good that player can be, especially realizing that early in the J.J. McCarthy era, you are going to have to transition off of Harrison Smith, who was a big time playmaker and a big time athlete that wore a ton of hats in that defense. So I would probably go Nick and Manwari.

What I think they will do, certainly I think they're going to trade back because we've run through so many different scenarios and just doing it live right here. Even if obviously we didn't get all those players right that are going to be in the first 23 picks, there's so many that are still available. I think trading back and picking someone along the defensive line, either Kenneth Grant or Derek Harmon,

if either of those two players are there after a trade back, I think that's what the Vikings would ultimately do, to think long-term, stay that Dallas Turner route along the defensive front with an interior player who has pass rushing upside. All right, we got two more shows. We got one right before the draft we're gonna record on Monday and then we got our favorite show of draft season where we review the Vikings picks it may be a very short review and then we'll talk about the rest of the draft as well or it may be a very short review and then we'll talk about the rest of the draft as well.

Or it may be a lot longer than we expect at this moment. Chris Trapaso, go check out his article there along with mock drafts and a million other things that you've written for CBS Sports dot com. And hopefully you all enjoyed that. We'll talk to you again soon. Football football.