Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Cook contract drama continues, PFF's Eric Eager talks Vikings over-unders

Episode Date: August 20, 2020

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with Drizzly or Instacart, Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. This is Greg Olson here to tell you about my new podcast, TE1. On the show, I had a chance to talk to my fellow tight ends who have revolutionized the position from an extra lineman to a dual-threat superstar. And just like my guests have changed the game, this year, NFLSundayTicket.tv is revolutionizing your NFL viewing experience. Stream all the live, out-of-market NFL games every Sunday on your favorite devices

and never miss a moment from your favorite players. Visit NFLSundayTicket.tv and use the promo code GREG88 at checkout and get 15% off your subscription. That's NFLSundayTicket.tv and the promo code GREG88. Subscribe to TE1 and get NFLSundayTicket.tv, an unmatched dual threat. Welcome everyone to another episode of Purple Insider. Before we get to my conversation with Pro Football Focus' Eric Eager, I just want to touch on a few headlines from the Vikings on Wednesday. First, Delvin Cook and the Vikings have broken off talks, according to NFL Network's Tom Belisaro,

about a future contract extension. And our pale ESPN's Courtney Cronin reported that Cook's side turned down the latest offer. So the drama continues with this situation. I was thinking about today, about how we might feel about this if we never heard anything about a holdout, if there wasn't confusion over whether he told Mike Zimmer that he was coming to camp or not. And, you know, I think this would feel a lot less contentious and certainly a lot less dramatic than it does right now. I mean, if you look around the league, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones,

there are other guys who are up for contract extensions, and we haven't heard a whole lot about it. Really, this has become more dramatic than what went on between Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, where it seemed Prescott just went, okay, I'll play on the very expensive franchise tag and move along. But this one with Delvin Cook has already made a lot of noise, and the reality of the situation is that the Vikings hold a lot of the cards here. If Delvin Cook doesn't play week one or if he stops practicing because the talks fell off, which, by the way, he practiced a lot on Wednesday and was in the most of any day

that he's been so far, so I don't see this happening. But if he chooses to do a holdout or some type of hold in, they could argue, per the CBA, that he's not fulfilling the duties of his contract. He could still lose in a crude season. You do not want this to happen if you're Delvin Cook. And he said he is 1,000%, not 100%, 1,000% going to play. So that leaves the possibility of him risking playing the season without an extension. I mean, he's one ankle tweak away from getting way less than he would get from the offer right now,

and he's potentially entering Melvin Gordon territory here. For Cookside, it seems like a pretty dangerous game to play if the Vikings want to sign him, if they have an offer out there to sign him, and not doing it. And the thing about running backs, too, that we have to consider is that they don't have the court of public opinion to play like other positions might, you know, to push the team in the direction. Because a lot of fans understand the risks of paying a running back, and I get tweets

every day of people saying, yeah, good, if they're not signing him. And I think that a lot of the studies and a lot of the recent contracts have pushed people in that direction. So it's not like as a star player you can kind of get the fan base behind you to try to push the team and the media behind you to try and push the team to sign you to a contract. That's a much tougher thing to do. So I have always felt like a deal will get done at some point here. This has gone farther now than any of these deals in the past, except for Anthony Bars

that did go into his last season. And it was the very last moment that he actually decided to return to Minnesota. So today's report definitely drops the confidence level in a deal significantly, and we might just see this play out if the Vikings continue to play hardball here. A couple of other things. Daniil Hunter was still out of practice on Wednesday, and so was Armin Watts. We don't need a—maybe we will need a panic button here for us to push when we get to situations like Delvin Cook and Daniil Hunter.

We're not told injury updates in camp, so it's hard. You kind of have to just wait and see. Daniil Hunter wasn't doing anything, has not done anything since they put on pads. And if he is out for any length of time, that is a big problem. And also the same goes for Armand Watts. If he's out for any length of time, that really hurts big problem. And also the same goes for Armond Watts. If he's out for any length of time, that really hurts his chances to compete for Jaleel Johnson. And it hurts the talent that they have in terms of a rotation. But we'll see how those injuries end up playing

out. Mike Zimmer, by the way, did not slow down the Cameron Dantzler hype train. So I think I made fun of him being called the next Richard Sherman the other day. But Mike Zimmer said he was pleasantly surprised with the way that Cameron Dantzler has picked up the defense and all the technical elements, which is what you want to hear. So right now he's still working on a rotational basis with the first team along with Jeff Gladney. That's another one that we're going to keep an eye on as that plays out.

Also Wednesday, we saw Tajay Sharp and Chad Beebe a little bit with the ones. So I can't figure out quite whether both guys are making it and that's why they're mixing in or if that's the battle, if it's Sharp v. Beebe. So things really got ramped up in terms of the intensity on Wednesday, and they were doing some situational stuff and things that we expected to see after a couple of days of more basic install type of looks from practice. So it should be the most fascinating couple of weeks of training camp that we have ever seen with this situation and no preseason games. I don't think we'll ever see it before or after this year

in terms of this level of intensity that's coming over the next week. So we will be here for you on the Purple Insider podcast to keep you abreast of the situation. So anyway, all of the situations, the many situations that are going on. Let's get to Eric Eager. Eric Eager, what is up, Eric? Dude, we're almost to three weeks until the first game. I'm excited, man.

How about you? I mean, the fact that we've even gotten through the first week and not had any COVID outbreaks, and it really seems like the NFL took all the measures that they were supposed to. At one point, we were concerned that they didn't do enough. And what it turned out to be was a lot of that back and forth between the players and the owners was really more about money than the safety measures, because the owners were totally fine with going as far as they needed to go.

The daily testing is happening. They kept the guys on the COVID reserve lists until they were ready to get back there in practice. And even from a media perspective, keeping the media in masks far enough away so there's no contact with players, doing everything with Zoom. If you take COVID seriously, as the bubbles have proven, you can keep it out. And I hope very much that it continues. So I am feeling as optimistic as I have ever felt that they're going to be able to make this work.

So we no longer, at least for now, I am putting a ban on saying, if we have a season, we don't have to do that. We do not have to do that anymore. So here's what I want from you. I want to go through some vikings over unders some are serious and some are just for fun um for us to laugh at a little bit and i want to start right out with the vikings defense because this is the point of uh the most interest i think for a lot of people is zimmer's defense and it's got a lot of new faces. The defensive line, if Daniil Hunter is out, is all new people,

like he's mispracticed the last couple of days. So I want to go with this. Over under Minnesota Vikings defense, rank in points against 13.5 is the over under rank. Considering lots of new people, coverage could be a problem, but they have talent in the secondary and one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. Over-under, 13.5 rank points against on defense. Over. Here's the thing.

I mean, Zimmer is a terrific defensive mind. The hard thing that I have with this team is there aren't the glue guys that there used to be. And I was, you know, thinking back, you know, when Trey Waynes wasn't ready in 2015, they had Terrence Newman, right? When Mackenzie Alexander wasn't ready in 2017, they had Terrence Newman. You know, they had Tom Johnson. They had Terrence Newman. They had Tom Johnson. They had Everson Griffin. They had guys. When Sheldon Richardson left or wasn't as much as what they thought,

they had Tom Johnson. When Shree Floyd wasn't ready, they had – they don't have the backstops this year, right? They could be a good deal. Like, honestly, if everything, if Dantzler works out, Gladney works out, they find a guy to play in the slot who's consistent enough to be good. If Kendricks is as good as he was last year, if Barr is as good as he was in 15 and 17, and Daniil Hunter continues along the path that he's been on despite not having as much help, they could be a top 10 defense, 100%. But that's a lot of ifs, right?

And defense is one of those things where it's an and situation. You need the secondary to be good and your pass rush to capitalize on. You need your pass rush to be non-trivial and then your secondary to hold up against strong quarterbacks. And when I look at this team, they not only have to, they have to improve just to get off of last year's ranking, which was high for sure. And I don't see them getting, I don't see them being the same defense as last year. Throw in the tougher schedule, give me over. Yeah, so this is exactly what I've been thinking about while

watching camp because you know when you see the starters out there it's a lot of the same stars okay Everson Griffin is not there Linval Joseph is not there can you make up for a nose tackle if Shamar Stephan can just hold guards and centers like uh Andre Patterson is very proud to talk about you know what? They can. I mean, they had a decent defensive performance against the run, for example, when they played Dallas. Where they got smoked was in the secondary because the corners didn't play very well,

and Mike Hughes got run out of the building by Amari Cooper. So I think it's more to do with can those guys cover for where they end up ranking, but do they have the capability and the talent? You have two first-round draft picks now in the cornerback group, a third-round draft pick who probably could have been a little higher. Holton Hill is a player who's developed over a couple of years and has, as Mike Zimmer put it, all the tools to be a very good starter in the NFL. It's just that the way I would put it is a safety net is really lacking here

because when Hunter was missing from practice, Jalen Holmes, who has essentially done nothing in the NFL in three years, Eddie Yarbrough, who's on, I believe, his second or third team, who was in, I don't know what, practice squad with the Buffalo Bills and had a couple of good preseason games against the Vikings. He's mixing in for a first-team rep with Hunter out there. The margin of injury and error is very thin here. And you think about a couple of years ago,

they lose Anderson Dejo to a season-ending injury, and Anthony Harris comes in and plays great. Not just good, but fantastic. And even last year, when Xavier Rhodes was struggling and Mike Zimmer finally admitted it to himself, he put in Mike Hughes as the backup who actually played pretty well, a former first-round pick who could come in as the backup. But now if you have Mike Hughes get hurt again,

then you're asking someone who's never played nickel to play nickel. You're shuffling things around. And if there's anyone goes down on the defensive line, you could end up with, I don't even know, Anthony Zettel and Eddie Yarbrough or something rushing the passer. I agree with you that the high-end talent is extremely high. And at linebacker, they're fine with Eric Wilson being a backup for either guy. But the defensive line and the secondary,

can we predict another whole season where they have no injuries like they did last year? No, and I think that, you know, so if you're a Vikings fan, I think there's a couple things that you can take positively out of what's going on right now. The first one is, I don't think that Zimmer is going to be able to do it the way he's always done it. Where, you know, when you look at the number of plays that they've had six defensive backs on the field, it's been, you know, very low relative to the rest of the league. They basically play 4-3 when it's warranted and 4-2-5 when it's warranted. Dom Capers comes in, consult, you know, they might, there might be an out that they have

in using Anthony Barr as a down, like not a down lineman, but like a 3-3-5 nickel, you know, backer, rushing the passer. They might be able to get by, you know, with Eric Wilson, as you said, playing some of the sort of off-ball stuff, Anthony Barr playing, you know, on the ball. But, you know, the thing with this team is I think, and Vikings fans don't like to deal with this, but it might just be a transitional year on their defense. And we've seen that happen, not under Zimmer, but we've seen it happen at times.

And it might just have to be that year. I can't think of the last time they've overhauled things so much. But you look at it and you say 15 draft picks. A lot of draft picks that I think are really good and really good values. Troy Dye out of Oregon I think is a great value. Obviously, Dantzler, you know, is a guy that George and I had in our first-round pick for our analytics mock. He's a great prospect. The question is, you know, in a season where really the only thing they have going for them is that their division is weak,

it's just going to be hard. I mean, you look at the quarterbacks that they have going for them is that their division is weak. It's just going to be hard. I mean, you look at the quarterbacks that they have right away. It's Rodgers, Rivers, Tannehill who led the league in passing last year, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, who's a borderline Hall of Famer. That's just the first six weeks. And then you go back and you turn the corner and you have Rodgers, Stafford, now whoever the Bears trot out there. I mean, Nick Foles hasn't not killed the Vikings in the past. And then you have Dak Prescott.

There's no, like, there aren't games where they can, like, catch their breath in the first part of the season. And, you know, a season ago, it wasn't like that. You know, they went, you know, they had Ryan early on. Of course, they had Rodgers. But then they went ahead and they had Derek Carr, right? And then they had Chase Daniel. And then they had Daniel Jones. Like, there were games for them to get under their feet.

And I think it's especially so on the offensive side of the ball. Like, there's just not going to be a ton of time when they can just say, hey, Kirk, you're only throwing 10 passes today. That's not going to happen. And I think it's just going to put a lot of stress and strain on the team. Get back to the conversation in just a minute. But first, I have to tell you about something very cool from our friends at SodaStick. You probably know them for Minnesota sports-inspired hats and shirts and hoodies that are screen-printed in Minnesota.

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list yourself i made my i didn't know if you had like your your own that you wanted to throw back at me yeah i i would say uh one of the ones that I had was the percentage of plays where the Vikings play three wide receivers or more. That's great. And I put the number – so last season, just for argument's sake, when Thielen played, it was a little bit – when Thielen played, it was over – I believe it was trending towards 30%. When Thielen wasn't on the field, it was below 20%,

which both of them were below. The Vikings' three-wide receiver rate last year was lower than all but one team in our database, which is the 2006 Chargers, who had an MVP in LaDamian Tomlinson. So I'm going to put that number, I'm going to beg people to bet the under here, and I'm going to put that number at 35.5%. Now, why you might say it could go over would be game situation, potentially. If you are in more of a drop-back passing type of game, if you are losing by two touchdowns late, you're going to have to be in the shotgun.

You're going to have to spread it out. Now, Irv Smith being a borderline wide receiver might change this math a little bit still, though, because I could see him out there for almost every play. I think we're going to see Justin Jefferson and B.C. Johnson flipping back and forth depending on formation, depending on what they want to do, and Adam Thielen will be out there for every single play. But Irv Smith, especially the way he's looked, and I know it's only a couple of days into camp, but he looks exactly how you think someone's going to look when they take the next step forward. There's a chance there that he is basically treated as their wide receiver, as their number two wide receiver for right now until Justin Jefferson can come

along. So I would still take the under on that because I also think Kubz just loves playing, you know, the multi-tight ends. But the fact that Irv Smith is borderline not a tight end, he's like a wide receiver who could block a linebacker if you need, I would still go under. I think that Kubz, even in those situations, is still going to want Irv Smith out there because opponents, just like, I don't know, Dodo Birds, will just, oh, they've got another tight end. Let's put out our linebacker, right? Like that's what you want even if you're down two touchdowns. Well, and a team that, you know, gave the Vikings fits a season ago is a team that categorically does not do that, which is the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers are a team that will go six defensive backs against your 22 personnel. And, you know, a season ago that was really, you know, the Vikings scored a combined 26 points in those two games against Green Bay. I think for that, you know, many cases that reason where, you know, the Packers are kind of the opposite of the Vikings, where you look at their defensive backs. J.R. Alexander was a high draft pick. And who's hit?

Adrian Amos is a high-priced free agent from the Bears, who's been terrific. Kevin King's coming on a little bit. They didn't bring back Tremont Williams. But, you know, all reports out of Packers camp is that their secondary looks really good. And, you know, they're kind of a team, and it caught up to them against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. But they're a team that will go light, even against a team that goes heavy.

But I agree with you. Most teams will do the opposite. Here's an interesting thing. And when you look at sort of to your point about game script, here are the games that the Vikings missed. Here are the games that Adam Thielen missed. So he got injured against the New York Giants, if I'm not mistaken. He got hurt against Detroit.

Right, Detroit. He had a big game. Yeah. It was on the second drive. So you can count that one if you want for whatever reason. So that game the Vikings led from wire to wire. Now Detroit gave them a game, but they led from wire to wire, so they could sort of dictate whether or not they wanted to be heavy or not.

The following Thursday night against the Washingtons, they were ahead the entire game. The Kansas City game, they were mostly ahead the entire game. So, again, they could dictate. The Dallas Cowboys game, they were ahead the majority ofboys game that, that, that they, they were ahead, you know, the majority of the game. Now they had to squeak it out at the end. The Denver game was the one outlier where they had to come from behind. But, you know, and then, then Seattle, they had to come from behind Detroit, like those games, there was only a couple of them where they

didn't have feeling, but they had to play, you know, from behind. So I wonder if, you know, coming into this year without Stephon Diggs, you know, they get behind right away to, let's say, the Green Bay Packers on opening day at home. Are they stressed a little bit? And then do they start to play? Because I could see a situation where Irv Smith is playing all the snaps because he's the number one tight end on the team, not necessarily because he's the number two tight end that they want to get on the field all the time. There might be a transitioning here, I think, from Rudolph, who's had a pretty good Vikings career, to Irv Smith as the lead tight end.

I could definitely see that, especially with the fact that Irv can block in any situation. When I went back and looked at a lot of his film, I was impressed. For a guy who only goes like 230, and maybe he's put on a little more weight since then, but someone who's undersized, there were some times last year where he's blocking a defensive end and just hanging on for dear life, but making an impact. And that Detroit game was especially impressive. They were putting in a run-stuffing linebacker who weighs 250, and he was going up against them and having relative success.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we see a transition to that either. Do you think at all when it comes to this, you know, using the heavier personnel that more teams around the league set out to stop this type of thing for this year? Because I feel like it is getting to be a little more trendy to run a Shanahan-Kubiak, especially after the Shanahan offense has had a lot of success in going to the Super Bowl here. I always think about what did defensive coordinators go into the offseason thinking? You know what?

This kind of got us last year, and we've got to make sure that we don't allow blank to kill us again. And I wonder if the heavier personnel is part of that. Well, I think this league, you know, there's a ton of interesting COVID-related questions, but I think one of them, when you look around the league, you look in Chicago, Eddie Goldman is opting out. You look in Minnesota, Michael Pierce is opting out. You know, Damon Harrison still isn't signed.

Like, you look at, and not only was San Francisco, a team that deployed a decent amount of heavy, heavy personnel to some success, Minnesota, obviously, but Tennessee, you know,

as a team that made the AFC championship game based on, you know, kind of a power running game, former Vikings fullback, Kari Blassen game was sort of like their, their mid season pickup. And I know no individual fullbacks don't really matter, but like using one can offer deception if you do a good job with it.

I do think that it's going to trend that way. And I think one of the reasons why Green Bay obviously drafting a fullback and drafting what appears to be Zeus as running back here. But the thing about it is we saw this, you know, your first year covering the Vikings 2016, you know, they, they identified a weakness in Zimmer's defense, which was Chad Greenway. Right. And they, they, it was Eric Swope was the tight end that got, you know, the wheel route on Greenway a number of times, you know, the,

these teams like, you know, it used to be that the nickel couldn't cover. And now it's like, well, the third linebacker can't cover. So it's all about a mismatch, a matchup thing. And I think when you look at a league and you say, okay, what's the blueprint for winning? Obviously the blueprint is being Kansas City. But not every team, like, I think most teams realize that they can't find that transcendent talent that is Patrick Mahomes. So they say, okay, well, what's the other most likely thing? Well, it's the zig when others zag.

And, you know, there is some success here with the, you know, the Baltimore's and the San Francisco's and the Tennessee's. So I do think teams will trend that way. And in a COVID situation where the majority of players who have opted out are bigger linemen, I think it might just even be more of a premium this year. Yeah. I also wonder about, and maybe this is silly, but if teams have any plan to attack those things more often, like even with their running games, just the middle of the field.

If I were going up against the Vikings right now and I knew Michael Pierce opted out, I'd be thinking, all right, how can we take advantage of the middle and really use our power running game and things like that? Because as much as we talk about running not mattering that much in comparison to passing, it sure is nice if you can do what San Francisco did to Green Bay and just run over them. And then you're getting positive play after positive play on the ground, and you can kind of do whatever you want after that uh my next over under for you eric is 9.5 kirk cousins pff ranking among all quarterbacks after the end of the 2020 season will he be in the top 10 or will he be outside of the top 10? Oh, that's a great one.

Well, given that he was good last year, I'm going to say over. And I hate to be negative because there will be a day where I think Kirk is firmly a top 10 quarterback in the league. But I am going to give one more year to Breeze, Roethlisberger, Brady, Rivers, and those quarterbacks. So I'm going to go over because I think it's going to be a lot more like 18, where it's just a tricky season for the Vikings, and he's going to be put in situations he's not comfortable in more often.

And we're just going to see him. I don't think he's going to drop to 20th or anything, but I don't think he's going to be a top 10 player position this year it has bounced around quite a bit for him during his career so last year among all quarterbacks who took 20 percent of dropbacks of the highest number he was fifth which is his highest by quite a bit but the year before he was 15th and we saw him go to his lowest point in 2017 where he was all the way down at 20th. But the thing is with 2017 is he had no wide receivers that year.

Josh Doxon, who does he have a job? He may have opted out of nothing this year for Josh Doxon. He got cut by the Vikings last year. He was, I think their number one wide receiver. Jordan Reed was hurt all the time, and Vernon Davis, who was? Yep. Okay. He was hurt by that point or getting older.

The offensive line struggled. So we kind of know that the parameters of Kirk Cousins, in terms of where he's going to rank in PFF grade, can be wide. But I don't see this team being as bad as that 2017 Washington team that was about to fall off the edge of a cliff. But I agree with you that just by proxy of turnover on defense, you may be put in more situations where you can't run play action all the time, and that's where he just is wildly successful.

Last year, I think 129.2 quarterback rating when he was out of play action, and you've talked about that before, that he is a bit of an outlier for someone who's consistently great out of play action all the time every year of his career, but not 130 quarterback rating every single year. I think that's going to drift back a little. Yeah, I think so, and you know, again, it's, you know, the teams are going to be ready for it, I think, a little bit more this year. They're going to be behind a little bit. You know, we had Cliff Averill on the podcast the other day,

and he said, you know, as much as you nerds want to say that it doesn't matter, like we do like lean off a play action a little bit later in games, which I think makes a lot of sense, especially if you're ahead of the game as a defense. It's going to be a little bit worse for him. Here's my second over-under, and it does correspond to Kirk Cousins, who has been remarkably consistent. Not consistent as a Vikings quarterback,

but there are some consistencies with his game. But I want to see what you think about this one. Over-under passing attempts for Kirk Cousins, 575.5. I'm going to go under because especially early in the season, I think that they will still want to run a lot. If Delvin Cook is healthy, they're going to give the ball to Delvin Cook. And we even saw this last year against the 49ers. They're down in the game to the 49ers.

They're not running the ball very well, and yet they still ran the ball. They were still trying to establish the run in the third quarter down by two scores, and it was not happening. So they are really committed to trying to run Delvin Cook. I would put it, the other day Mike Clay was on the podcast, and he had it at 498. I think it might be a little higher than that. I can't see him approaching 600 passes just by what the Gary Kubiak offense is. And I think that even though they will be in more shootouts than they were last year, by far, he's not having a 10 throw performance. And he's also probably not going to be able to skip week 17 to sit out either. So I can see where your over-under comes from.

I just fundamentally think the head coach of this team says we have to successfully run the football and that even if you're Gary, it is your job to follow along with what the head coach wants. I'm really interested to see if Kevin Stefanski continues to run this much when he goes to Cleveland, or if we see him on second and 10 always throwing the ball, and maybe that was more of a Zimmer edict. I can't see it getting there, but I see where you're coming from with it. Yeah, our number is 539 on our fantasy projections, which again, a lot of that, so here's an interesting narrative, Matthew, I want to throw out here. Usually, so when we do, like, projections for points and everything like that

for fantasy, a lot of what we do is sort of a top-down, like, are they behind, are they ahead? Teams from behind throw a lot. Teams that play in domes throw a lot, all that kind of stuff. The Vikings have one of the best home field advantages in all of football. And it's New Orleans, it's them, it's Green Bay, Kansas City. Without fans in the stands, they stand to lose, I would say, a decent amount of their home.

Like the Washington football team has the worst home field advantage in football. In a season without home field advantage vis-a-vis fans, they stand to lose the least. Teams like Minnesota, Kansas City, Green Bay, those teams stand to lose the most. New Orleans stand to lose the most. I feel like some of those, like, are they behind related statistics,

factor in even a little bit more for Minnesota because this season is not going to be such where a decent number of their games at US Bank Stadium end with them running the clock out what do you think about that I think it's a great point and I wrote a huge article about this trying to figure it out trying to figure out just how much Mike Zimmer's defense has benefited or I should say take advantage of, because, hey, it's like if you're a home run hitter and the wind blows out to left, you don't get penalized for pulling the ball down the line and having it, you know, get a little wind assistance. Like you should use the things that are to your advantage, and Zimmer has done so brilliantly.

But on the road, they, since U.S. Bank Stadium opened, are 20th in terms of their sacks. And at home, I think they're first or third or something, like right up at the top. They've been this way their entire franchise history. Like, it's amazing how nothing, everything changes, but some things stay the same. They've been this way, like, the whole time. It's so funny.

But, yeah, at least since the dome opened in 82 they've always been a strong team indoors and a weaker team out there it's crazy as a whole I think that they could be a bottom third pressure team I mean George Shahuri your co-host on the podcast we talked about this a little bit last week how you know blitzing is just not a push-a-button answer because you have to be able to cover in order to blitz successfully. And if your guys are getting beat in two seconds, good quarterbacks are going to be able to find them. In fact, even Kirk Cousins is extremely good when opponents blitz

in terms of his numbers because he's experienced, he's seen the blitzes before, He knows exactly his reads and so forth. So it's not like Zimmer snaps his fingers, brings in Dom Capers and says, Hey Dom, why don't you tell us about some of them Blitzes? And then that all of a sudden solves the problem. That is where I really want to see it because think of the extra help Everson Griffin had. And again, full credit for taking advantage of it and having a great Vikings career, the extra help that that tackle cannot hear his quarterback. And so you have the jump on him every time. You're looking down the line, you see the football move, you've got that extra

burst. And when you already have elite explosive ability, I mean, you're getting to the quarterback a lot more. Shifting protections, reading where Harrison Smith is, all these things require communication that opponents just don't have at U.S. Bank Stadium when it is ramped all the way up. I think it could potentially make a difference. I don't have an over-under for it, but I definitely think that when we look at the rankings at the end of the year, they might look a little bit worse than they will be in 2021.

Let's pray that, you know, when people are back in the stands, here's my next one for you. Or did you have another one after that? No, that was, that was a Kirk related one.

okay. All right. Yeah. You were over-undering off of my over-undering. So I want here, here's what I want. I want you to tell me Justin Jefferson slash Jeff Gladney slash Cameron Dantzler over under one and a half of them is talked about for rookie of the year

or Pro Bowl or something really good. Like player of the week or Pro Bowl or something really good, like player of the week, anything like that, over, under one and a half, a Vikings rookie either makes the Pro Bowl, gets a player of the month, or is in the rookie of the year conversation. That's a good one. I'm going to go under. Opportunity is there, though.

Opportunity. Opportunity is there though. Opportunity. I knew you were going to go under. Opportunity is what drives. Opportunity is there. Yep. Opportunity drives a great deal of what happens. Where do I have Jefferson? We have Jefferson with 636 yards receiving.

That would not get him in the conversation. Henry Ruggs at 715. Stevie Lamb at 840. So Jefferson, as far as rookies are concerned, he's got a lot of competition at wide receiver. And I think you can make a conversation that you can make a guess that there's going to be other guys who have better opportunities than a guy coming into a run first offense. Defensively, Gladney's injury I think

hurts him a little bit. So I'm going to go under. Like I said, I'm very bullish on the Vikings long term with these draft picks. This particular season I think is going to be a tough needle to thread. We'll get back to the conversation in just a minute, but first, is going to be a tough needle to thread. We'll get back to the conversation in just a minute, but first got to tell you about TheraOne CBD. From tight muscles, tough workouts, signs of aging, to simply making it through each busy day,

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Use the promo code BLUEWIRE at checkout to get 15% off your subscription. Visit NFLSundayTicket.tv and use promo code BLUEWIRE. I totally agree with you. I've got one more. But I could see Justin Jefferson making his way into all these conversations because, A, he's looked good in camp so far, which, you know, again, small sample size, but somebody looks really comfortable out there right away, unlike previous first round wide receivers. And the opportunity is there. They've got a chance to get some attention. On the defensive side, I guess

we'll have to see. So the last one I have is the Vikings' second leading receiver. Second leading in receiving. I shouldn't say receiver. In receptions. In receptions, yes. Over under 52-and-a-half. Over. Okay. So you don't think they're just throwing to Adam Thielen the whole season?

No, no. And here's the thing. It can happen so many different ways. So I think, let me look at Dalvin's numbers yeah he had something like 56 last year yeah I think Dalvin could get over that number um 53 so you put the number really well yeah so I think Dalvin yeah yeah I think Dalvin could get over that number um I think Irv Smith could get over that number. I think if Irv Smith wasn't good enough, Rudolph could get over that number. And, like, I've been – this is going to be an about-face, face it.

But, like, Jefferson could get there. Tajay Sharp could get there if Jefferson falters. Like, I mean, this is 2020. Somebody's going to catch – like, Dwayne Bates caught 50 balls for the Vikings in 2002. Bobby Wade. Bobby Wade caught over 50 balls for the Vikings in both 07 and 08. Like, that's a really low bar. All right.

A less serious one's rapid fire here. Over under two and a half times we see on a television broadcast a defensive back throwing his helmet. Over. I mean, they're going to lose 10 games this year, so it's going to happen in 25% of the games. I'm starting to get tweets and comments about this. But it is interesting that some podcast guests have them with 10 wins, some are you.

I'm going to singular point you. Look, man, you'll have the quotes this time. Remember when you were on the other station and I said they were an eight-win team and we couldn't find the quote the day after they lost to the Bears. Right, right, right. Okay, so speaking of the Bears, over under one and a half Bears starting quarterbacks for more than four games in 2020. Over. So you think Trubisky and Foles bounce back and forth?

Yeah. I mean, dude, the same thing happened to Jacksonville last year, and they had every intention of starting Foles, right? Like, Foles is not only not good enough to hold the job for that long, but he also gets hurt a lot. And then Trubisky stinks, dude. Trubisky, ugh. Like, no.

That team is going to be back and forth between those two guys. An interesting question is over under.5 starting, Bears starting quarterbacks against the Vikings. No, yeah, that's a good one. Well, I was actually going sort of a similar direction. Over under.5, NFC North coaches fired this year that's a good one um so so LeFleur's safe because he took the team to the NFC championship game last year there's not a whole lot only Brad Childress gets fired the year after taking the team to the NFC Championship game.

And I think Zimmer's safe, obviously. I think Nagy's only two years removed from being the coach of the year. It would really have to be a meltdown for him to get fired. So we're really talking about Patricia, right? Yes. I mean, that's really what it comes down to. Nagy wins four games. He's out. Yeah, yeah.

He'll try to blame him instead of the general manager. I think Detroit, so here's the deal. Like, I think Detroit, I think Patricia has this Doug Marone year, don't you think? Really? Yeah. You know, his Jacksonville year? Yeah, yeah. Where it all sort of comes together and then, like, yeah, or his Jay Gruden year or, you know, name every bad coach that lasted.

Like Adam Gase in 2016 took the Dolphins to 10-6 in the playoffs and stuff. Right? Like Patricia – so that team was 500 when Stafford got hurt. All their losses were by a score or less. Now, he's probably the reason why they lost those games instead of won them. But, like, they're not irredeemable. In fact, they're probably, if you're looking to actually make money betting on the NFC North, they're the team to bet on because you're getting plus 600 or something.

And I think there's a chance that they have the best offense in the division. They have decent defensive talent with, you know, Desmond Trufant, Jeffrey Okuda, you know, the safety position is a little whack, but then they have Jamie Collins. They have Trey Flott. Like all the Patriots players are playing for that defense now on the front seven. So, like, I'm going to go under, but I'm not – I wouldn't put any of my own money on it.

All right, last one for you for just fun NFC North-related over-unders. Over-under one and a half times, you or your friends there at Pro Football Focus are at your computers, at your offices at Cincinnati, and you peek up and you look at a TV and it says, should the Packers start Jordan Love? Let me look at the Packers schedule. So I actually listened. So growing up in Minnesota, I did not like the Packers. I couldn't not stand Aaron Rodgers.

I always thought he was such a prick. And I watched his interview with Andrew Brand. Is it Kyle? Kyle, yeah. And he, like, came off as, like, extremely cool. Like, not a complete jerk. And, like, he just seemed like a decent guy. So I'm kind of rooting for him a little bit this year.

I know that sacrilege and everything. On the Purple Insider podcast, he says this. But here's the deal. They go at Minnesota. They're underdogs in that game by three points, three and a half points. Detroit, I'm already saying, is the NFC North champion, so they're going to lose that game. They go to New Orleans.

They're going to be probably, what, a touchdown underdog in that game, depending upon home field. Home to Falcons, who could easily beat them. At Tampa Bay, where they'll be underdogs. And then they go at Houston, which they'll probably be underdogs in that game. And then they host the Vikings and then go on the road to the Niners. We talk about the Vikings could start 0-8, 0-10. Like the Packers could start 0-8.

Their first easy game is Jaguars at home. So what do they have to be? Week 9. What do they have to be to have that be on the TV where it's a discussion? If they started 0-3 or 1-3 or 1-5, let's say 2-4, I think we see it. I think we see it. So I would say over. I agree. I agree. You go oh and three or two and four, you are going to see should they start Jordan Love and bench Aaron Rodgers and trade Aaron Rodgers and everything else. I'm looking at the Packers' schedule right now, and I just want to bet more on the Lions. Do the Lions have a much easier schedule?

Don't they play a lot of the same teams? A lot of the same teams, but they don't play like the Niners, you know? Oh. Like the Packers are like, okay, they go, they play, so, yeah, they play the NFC South, but everybody does. But then, like, you get this like, oh, shoot, the Saints, right? And then you get, you know, Houston. And where Detroit would have the Cardinals,

the Packers have to go over the Niners in the same, you know what I'm saying? Like, it's, you know, I have the Vikings as slight favorites to win the division after my simulation. You know, they're about 36%. The Packers about 34%, 35%. It's one of those where there isn't a definitive favorite. For the second consecutive year, there is not a definitive favorite in this division. Now I'm regretting not having

all of the over-unders be ridiculous, which is maybe what it should have been. It's great content, isn't it? It is. It is. Eric, always great to get together and have some fun talking football. And not one time did we say, we followed the rules, not one time did we say

if we play, because it's going to happen. We're going to speak it into existence so people should listen to the pff forecast podcast also a reminder that hopefully some colleges play because you guys just launched a incredible amount of new college football content and a subscribe model there so very very cool and i can't wait to see that and we will get together again soon, my friend. Sports are coming back. So are your chances to bet on your favorite teams and events.

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