Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Data scientist Sam Bruchhaus analyzes the Vikings numbers through 3 weeks

Episode Date: September 25, 2025

SumerSports data scientist Sam Bruchhaus joins the show to discuss his takeaways from what he's seen of the Vikings over the first three weeks of the season. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, we welcome back into the show for, I don't know, fifth, six, seven time, a former college linebacker, now a senior data scientist with Sumer Sports. Sam Brookhouse, it is great to have you back on the show, sir. How are we doing, man? What a start to the season. College, NFL, we got madness everywhere. Everything we thought was wrong.

It's football season. proving myself right and then finding out I'm wrong is both such a beautiful and great feeling and that's happened like 10 to 20 times already this season and it's it's only week four Matthew so I'm really excited to discuss some of the excellent stuff that has been going on with you today yeah I feel like at some point in my life as a journalist I stopped trying to be right and just sort of like let's just see what happened let's just all strap ourselves into this ride that's the NFL and we'll try to figure it out on a weekly basis, but it's always going to show us that sometimes the Atlanta Falcons can

whoop the Vikings and then lose 30 to nothing the next week to an 0 and 2 football team. So since you are a senior data scientist now at Sumer Sports though, I am very curious about some of the data with the Minnesota Vikings because three weeks is a tiny sample size. one season is a tiny sample size sometimes, as we know. And when one player takes back two touchdowns in the first half on defense, I think that's going to throw off some of the numbers for what it says about the Vikings defense. But what I've really noticed is how much the defense has stepped up in these first couple of weeks and has carried them to being a two and one football team.

So I'm very interested about your observations just from the Vikings as a data point. in the NFL? You nailed it. The defense is top tier. It is one of the top units across offense, defense, special teams in the league right now. They are first in expected points added per play. So they are limiting explosives and efficiency from teams. They are also fourth in success rate in limiting teams on a play-by-play basis.

So this defense is one of the best in the league. If they are going to carry far into the playoffs, it is going to probably be because this defense takes them there. In particular, though, that is kind of skewed by the game last week. And I think we've discussed it for the better part of two years. The defensive backfield is still going to continue to be the question mark for this team. Liking what do we see from Isaiah Rogers, liking what we see from the all pro from last year, Byron Murphy.

You have Josh Mattelis, you have Theo Jackson playing some pretty good snaps. But this team will be considered about how that, defensive backfield performs against the best offenses in the league. That's what really tanked them last year. This front is good. The fronts are going to be confusing for quarterbacks. They're going to have to figure things out. But at the end of the day, this defense's weakness is still the defensive backfield, even though I do see that there is some better chemistry coming up on film. And I think that is showing in the data at least through the first three weeks of the season. Well, and the biggest difference, okay, yeah, Isaiah

Rogers doing what he did was the biggest difference in the game. But when I watched back on the All-22 film, the biggest difference for me was just having Harrison Smith back. And I was looking at, this is the mountains of data that we have now. I was looking at a plot chart of where the safeties have lined up for the Minnesota Vikings. And then I compared it to different teams. And the Vikings are all over the map where most of the time you can kind of draw these two lines of, you know, the free safety, strong safety. Sometimes they're in the box, sometimes they're back there. But with Harrison Smith, even though he's not in his prime anymore, still tip the ball

that turned into an interception, still created a pressure off the edge that confused Jake Browning, still was operating plays out there that Brian Flores said to us, yeah, sometimes I see him do something and I'm like, don't do that. No, actually, that's good. Harry out there. I think the secondary, well-proven talent, it does not have outside of Byron. Murphy and Harrison Smith, it does master deception, which I think is going to cause a lot of problems for offenses. When you look at the top line of this defense, they have a very high

sack rate. And I think a lot of those sacks come from guys like Jonathan Granard's pass rush ability, Van Ginkle's pass rush ability, but a lot of it comes from confusion. And particularly as you were watching Jake Browning in his first start as the Bengals, you could tell that he couldn't necessarily figure out what was going on with the safeties on any given play. There's this beautiful play where Harrison Smith basically lines up at the cornerback position. They go through some checks. All of a sudden, the linebackers drop out, then come back up to the line. Harrison Smith then sprints pre-snap all the way back to a safety alignment.

They end up sending an all-out blitz, and it ends up being a good play for the Vikings. When you are able to do that with your experienced players, even if they've lost a step, it really adds a level of pre-snap gamesmanship that ends up showing up in the data. And I think the ability for the Minnesota Vikings to have a high blitz rate because of that level of confusion and because they can at least trust their defensive backfield to be in the right spots, even if they can't necessarily trust them to do the right things all the time. We saw Jeffrey Okuda not be able to cover T. Higgins in a couple slots. but the mental game, the Vikings can be certified to win on a week-to-week basis.

And I think that's a true kind of tug of war in your direction before the game even starts. Yeah, the play you're talking about was Andrew Van Ginkle's first sack. And they showed three different coverage looks before I saw my colleague, Alec Lewis, tweet that out and it kind of went viral because there were, I saw some former Pittsburgh Steelers being like, hey, we used to do that stuff. It's a former Patriots. We used to do that stuff. But pre-snap deception, they make it look really easy.

If it was easy, everybody else would do it. And I think that what they might not have in proven talent, they have in intelligence. And that's what you see from someone like Theo Jackson, who is not a household name around the NFL, but it's somebody that they bang the drum about for years because they're like, this guy's smart enough to handle all this stuff. And then where I think it's really big is the first couple weeks, Josh Mattelis was forced to play more of a traditional safety spot, I just don't think that that fits his skill set all that well.

I think being a box safety where he can blitz, where he can stop the run, where he can drop back occasionally when you're talking about deception is probably the best for him. But I think there is the one question about the run defense because when you're playing against the Bengals, they're pathetic on the offensive line. They couldn't do anything.

And there was a play where both Vikings, defensive tackles instantly just smash their guard and center and tackle Chase Browley, what's that guy even supposed to do? Right. That's not what most teams that they're going to face, the lions, the Eagles, the Ravens, those teams are not going to let you do that. I do think that that would be the biggest question aside from what you're talking about with the unproven secondary.

And I think currently you look at how this team is rated against the run. not very good. And that's in particular because the performance of two defensive tackles against the Falcons. They were getting pushed around. You look at the film, the first point of contact was extremely far down the field. And Bajon Robinson, Tyler Alligier, were able to really get over on this team. But you also can find bright spots. And I think in particular, the bright spots are the two young players, Dallas Turner and Eric Wilson. Eric Wilson, in the last game against the bingles, we have Sumer scores, which the goal is not just to slap numbers on people. The goal is to try to figure out at your alignment, how much value

are you providing? So basically, you're being asked to do this. How well are you doing as compared to everyone else in every 10th of a second in the film going back to like 2016? How well did those players do and kind of rate you that way? And Eric Wilson had a rare performance, basically an all pro performance against the Bengals. As you noted, you got to caveat it a little bit. The offensive line struggling they were really loading up to try to get after jake browning that that causes all kinds of downstream effects in the running game but when you're able to see a young player like that who is stepping in uh for a basically a pro bowl level linebacker and then playing alongside ivan pace who is really going to be attacked as the weak link of the defense in

any given situation for him to have that good of a game in run defense is really exciting for this team and i do think the same as we talked about there could be regression on the back end just because of what we're seeing. I think there could very well be progression on the run defense as it pertains to the front seven, because I do think Eric Wilson has some juice. And I think we're going to continue to see Dallas Turner carve out a role on this football team. And I wouldn't be surprised because Wilson is filling in for Blake Cashman. If Wilson ends up on the field a lot more when Blake Hashman comes back, Ivan Pace has been a good player for them the last couple years, but Wilson has been a legitimate difference

maker over these first couple weeks. The other two guys that I think could have a big impact are Levi Drake Rodriguez and Jalid Redmond, who dominated that game. They were both phenomenal against Cincinnati. And these guys, this is a XFL player who was undrafted and a seventh round pick, but development projects of Brian Flores and their defensive line coach Marcus Dixon, but both of these guys, they have juice, they have power, they have quickness. And I think when you see initial punches driving offensive linemen back, even if it's not the greatest offensive lineman in the world, you take note of that.

And we might see much more of mixing and matching as opposed to, hey, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, you guys are out there most of the time and the other guys pop in. We might end up seeing Redmond and Levi Drake on the field a lot more than we even expected to see them. And that could make a difference for how they stop the run going forward. Folks, I know a lot of you out there either own your own business or you are in a management position where you have to hire people and it can be such a headache. You have to sort through all sorts of resumes of people who aren't qualified and you end up overlooking some of the best candidates. It's tough. But what is not tough is using ZipRecruiter for your hiring needs. ZipRecruiter finds amazing candidates for you and fast. And right now you could try it for free

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the Vikings to have a rotation is extremely valuable because it allows you to nullify the low points of those players those young players while still allowing them to have their high points And that is what we have seen on a play-by-play basis from those two players is, as you mentioned, against the Bengals. They can have extremely high-level plays and they can kind of mask if Alan and Hargrave are not playing well. You can throw those guys in. I think the rotation particularly as it pertains to the linebacker spots and the defensive tackle spots are the difference for the Vikings front seven this year. All right, Sam, here's a bigger picture question for you. what does it mean to have a great defense in the year

2025? Oh, and let me just add about the Dallas Turner thing. If Dallas Turner is taking the next step where I think he's been good for the start of the season, what a swing that is for this defense because he didn't contribute a ton last year. But having an elite defense, I think five years ago was great. It's always been great. Like you always wanted to lead everything. hey, what's the way to win the Super Bowl?

I don't know, be awesome at everything. But we clearly leaned toward having the best offense was going to be the answer time and time and time again. And I remember looking at it a few years ago where passing EPA had predicted who was going to end up in the Super Bowl almost every single year. But I do feel like there's a turning of the tides in the NFL where we're going back a little bit.

And defenses who can get to the quarterback are causing so many problems because they're matched with deception that I think it is a great time in the National Football League to have a dominant defense. I 100% agree. And I think the special teams game and the changes in the kickoff and moving practically the spot in which teams are starting to the 30, 35 on average. Now, should it be that? No, it shouldn't. It shouldn't be. And we can get into that in a little bit. But basically giving the offense 10 to 15 extra yards as compared to past years has made passing defense become one of the biggest gyms that you can have.

And right now the Vikings have that, whether it's through the pass rush, whether it's through deception, their first and EPA per pass allowed right now. And they're virtually taking a half a point away per play as compared to the second, third, fourth, fifth ranked teams. This is a real strength of theirs as it pertains right now. Obviously, we're going to see that number come down because it's very difficult to maintain that big of a lead in the National Football League, especially when you are playing the schedule that the NFC North as a whole has to play this year, obviously the Vikings as well. I think that is the absolute key to having a good defense. I think you can fail a little bit on the rushing game, and that will hurt you from time to time.

as long as you're not giving up explosives in that part and parcel, if you're stopping the pass, that's the absolute key. Two years ago, we saw the true kind of note of this when the San Francisco 49ers were going up against the chiefs. Both of them had had defensive problems going up into the Super Bowl, but they both were extremely effective at stopping the past. That has to be the number one key. And moreover, you do want to see the success rate very high as well.

I think you look at teams like the Packers last year and kind of to a certain degree the Vikings as well as teams who were able to generate turnovers consistently, pseudo consistently, because turnovers are very hard to predict throughout the regular season. And then when they were not able to maintain that level of success rate in the playoffs against teams who could really drive the ball down the field and just kind of dink and dunk, that caused big problems for them. So I think you do want to see a quality success rate, but tippy, top, not even close, most important thing is stopping the pass in terms of expected points at it. You mentioned the turnovers and that is a really interesting subject to me because there are certain things that are broadly considered random that are not when applied to certain people. So I'll give you example. People on the show have heard me rant about the one score game thing. It's like the worst analysis in football when someone just says like, well, they won one score

games like can we look into those games were you up 21 to seven in the fourth quarter and the other team got garbage points or was it a last minute fumble you returned or kick you blocked you know was it random or not i think needs a a little bit more of a microscope than just looking at it broadly and i and so my favorite stat for that is that tom brady was like you know a hundred and forty or something in one score games so i don't think it's completely random that tom brady won all those one score games. I also don't think it's completely random that the Vikings keep getting sacks and turnovers. They designed this thing to do that. And so sometimes you'll be frustrated at Vikings fans watching it. Like, hey, we gave up this play. We gave up that play. But I think it's Brian Flores

and Kevin O'Connell's nature to lean into a little bit of the variance there and the high impact type of plays. Now, they put a major emphasis on punching the ball out, which sometimes means you'll miss a tackle. put a major emphasis on playing the football and try to get interceptions, which sometimes it means you're going to give up a big reception behind you. But I think that that's the right way to play in 2025 when, as you mentioned, teams are starting at the 35 yard line. And like, they're almost in field goal position considering some of these kickers. Yep. Football, Sam and, and, and former linebacker Sam knows the importance of scheme, culture, and technique when it comes to turnovers. It is clear that there is some voodoo that Brian Flores has put together that ensures that this team gets

turnovers during the regular season. The problem is data scientists, Sam, looks at the full history and wants to say, Matthew, you know, they are getting these turnovers, but what if the ball is dropped? There's like a 50, 50 shot anytime. And I want to go look at Isaiah Rogers and say, okay, the first two games, he was about a median player. But then last week, you get a terrible throw from a pressure, Jake Browning, which again, you do have to chalk it up to the pressure. So that is a little something. That is a, that is something that is predictable. Pressure is pretty predictable, and that will continue.

So that's one caveat there, but it was a pretty terrible throw from Jake Browning. And then as you mentioned, you get the tip. And both of those are pretty much plays that you can't bank on happening again. And so this is the part where football and data scientist Sam kind of bang, but I do think that the Minnesota Vikings do everything it takes to try to get to the point of causing the turnover worthy opportunities. And I think as they continue to maximize those, you get lucky in the right ways. And I think they are probably the best at the league at disguising, which leads to turnover worthy opportunities, at punching the ball and causing problems with the ball

handler and at getting pressure. And I think when you add those three things up, you end up getting lucky. And I think the fact that we're seeing the success rate there as well on a play by play basis, they're not allowing both explosive plays or teams to dink and dunk them down the field is a sign that that will probably continue. I'm just less likely to buy in that Isaiah Rogers is going to be this level of all pro performer or Byron Murphy is going to continue doing what he did last year because as we've seen this year, they've been so turnover dependent at the player level. Yeah. I mean, with Isaiah Rogers, maybe no one will ever in NFL history do what he did.

So, yeah, that would be hard to repeat. But the way that I think of it, I like to play chess, the more that you pressure your opponent, the more likely they are to blunder. Now, if they blunder, a lot of times that's just good luck for you. Like, hey, well, they just screwed up and hung a piece and then you win the piece easily. But at the same time, if you keep pressuring them

and you keep playing well like that, they will make more mistakes and time pressure does this as well to chess players that the less time they have to think about it, which is what they're doing to the quarterback. The less time you have to think about it, the more likely you are to make a mistake. Where the trouble comes in, I think, is when you face Jared Goff. Because Jared Goff against this team, Matthew Stafford against this team, is like, yeah, okay, well, it's great that you could pressure me, but I've also been pressured 10,000 times in my career and I know how to deal with it. And we've seen, I think, golf get better and better. Stafford get better and better throughout their career.

Experience quarterbacks are like, oh, you're doing that thing with the safeties? Well, I saw that back in this, whatever, and I know what coverage your play. And that's what we saw from Stafford last year, where he was not really shaken at all by this team. And that's what I wonder about when they start to face the more difficult opponents, because they've got Rogers coming up who can pick this stuff apart, but is, I think, limited in his age. Joe Flacko again, he can see it, but can he actually throw it after that it's the eagles offense it's justin herbert it's jared goff it's lamar jackson you start to face a lot of difficult opponents so what are we supposed to do with all this data that we have from three weeks built up but it's against caleb williams michael pennix

and jake browning not exactly the run of quarterbacks that i just mentioned you we mentioned pressure in time on the quarterback side the thing that makes diamond level players is pressure in time and your ability to handle pressure overtime. And you mentioned that kind of run of players. The reason why Jared Gough, Matthew Stafford-esque types have been able to rip this team is because of their ability to throw the ball over the middle of the field. And that's very difficult to do. But for the guys who are able to do it, it's extremely efficient and causes absolute gashes. We saw that with Jared golf against the Ravens, where that's a team that likes to generate pressure that likes to show exotic fronts. Jared Gough was able to step up in the pocket, deliver to Amman Ross, St. Brown.

and Sam LaPorte a time and time again, that ends up getting big chunks of yardage, and by the end of the game, they're able to really push it forward. The second way to really manage that pressure is scrambling. And when you're talking about Jalen Hertz and Lamar Jackson, there's no two better, perhaps in the history of National Football League,

to scramble and get efficient production that way. And so I think that is going to be the true test, both of this middle of the field defense that we saw ripped at the end of last season, and of this back end of facing those high-level wide receivers and those quarterbacks who manage pressure extremely well. I think what their goal is from signing Hargrave and Allen is to be able to cover the middle of the field by rushing four, but will Brian Flores stick with that or will he grow impatient

and can they actually execute it with the guys in the secondary is a big question. Let's go over to the offensive side of the ball. The data, I think a lot of it, you kind of just have to crumple it up and toss it in the old. waste basket because you're starting a 22 year old quarterback who in a lot of ways was not running the offense that the Vikings want to run. And that's to be expected from somebody who is a new quarterback. And then Carson Wentz comes in. He runs the offense. He plays three quarters in a massive blowout. What do we even do with that? I mean, I think all of it probably from the

quarterback position gets thrown away. So what can we look at from the Vikings offensive data for the first three weeks, if anything, and say, you know what, there might be a trend here or there, plus the first two games without their all world left tackle. I mean, just, just a very weird start statistically to this season. Here is the canary in the coal mine about the Minnesota Vikings offense right now. Justin Jefferson is one of the best wide receivers in league. He's probably one of the best wide receivers in league history. And wide receiver stats are generally very sticky year to year. And we're seeing his sticky stats be sticky as compared to his excellent years. He's fifth in yards per route run. So an extremely efficient player. And he is seventh in target share.

The problem is he is 19th in targets per route run. What does that mean that the quarterbacks are literally not getting the ball out enough. And so when I went to dig into this deeper, because this is a very strange conglomeration of things for a star level. player to say that they're literally not getting the ball thrown to them enough. You go and look at the percentages, and there's another sticky stat for quarterbacks, and the stickiest stats for quarterbacks is their decisions. So how much do you scramble? How much do you take a sack?

How much do you throw the ball away? And Carson Wentz and JJ McCarthy's sack rates and scramble rates have been tremendously higher than what we saw from Sam Darnold. And so I think the key moving forward, regardless of who that is, is you have have to number one take substantially less negative plays through sacks and number two we have to figure out a way where you are seeing the difference faster and not necessarily uh tucking in and running it and making sure that you are getting in the ball in the hands of justin jefferson it's a very similar trend for t j hawkinson 21st in yards per route run realized that he was banged up a

little bit but eighth in target share and 14th in targets per route run and he's also on a play-by-play level basis been very good in our sumer score. So it's a very similar problem. He's not getting the ball in his hands enough. We need to see the target rate from these quarterbacks go up substantially or else we will continue to see the efficiency problems that this offense has found. And I think that when we talk about this decision of how Kevin O'Connell is going to handle the quarterback position, it has to start with those two guys in getting them the ball. And I think the way you put it, Canary in the coal mine, And I said this very same thing in the post game show. When it's a functional offense, T.J.

Hawkinson is getting the football. And I know he didn't have to chip as much with Christian Darrasaw back, but it's not like T.J. Hawkinson has ever been really that guy. He lined up about 50% of the time in the slot or out wide in those first two games. I think it was the most obvious explanation is probably the right one that if the young quarterback was not seeing the field and not timing out the route. the way they needed to be timed out. And there's lots of explanations for it,

including the fact that Jefferson didn't participate much in training camp, if at all. I mean, that matters to the conversation. But the minute whence comes in, the timing improved significantly. And the share of targets going to those two star players improved significantly. And if you're Kevin,

and Kevin O'Connell's seat, you can't go out there week after week and not have Justin Jefferson getting the ball. This entire thing is built. Jefferson downfield Hawkinson underneath. That's what this thing is supposed to do. And if Wence is doing that on a

consistent basis, they will win just on that alone without even having to be special. And I think O'Connell has to consider that as he goes forward to try to make the decision of when or if to bring back J.J. McCarthy. And I want to jump in and clarify, because you

mentioned the share of targets going to Jefferson and Hawkinson. The share of targets is fine. It's literally the wrong numbers. Yeah. Like, which is, again, extremely rare. Typically when you're talking about these things, you're talking about the rates and you're talking about the share of targets. But this is literally how many at-bats can we get for Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hawkinson. And I think this is something that is solvable by Kevin O'Connell. The question is, is particularly that scramble rate. And something that I was matching the eye with the AI with as I was watching this film against the Bengals is Al Golden likes to use

these types of simulated pressures where they're only sending four and but it looks like it's a blitz and a lot of the times Carson Wentz was not seeing the defense properly in my opinion and was just pulling it and scrambling or trying to make a play outside of the pocket that's a that's worrisome for me especially with the knowledge that Kevin O'Connell has said over and over again that Justin Jefferson is going to be our first option he's going to be our first read the ball needs to be in his hands we literally have to see the number of at bats, the number of three-point shots go up for these players or else this will be a problem. The biggest note, and you noted this, especially as it pertains to the next two weeks and the

sack rate is Christian Darrasaw. If he's just able to be an island left tackle, that could definitely change the calculus a little bit, but I'm still worried about that scramble rate. I think you have every right to be because you're right. Even Carson Wentz ends up with a very good stat line, but took several sacks. And I think that at least one of them was on him holding onto the ball for too long. And there's still clearly a little bit of Carson Wentz that's like, I'm a playmaker. And his body is like, no, bro, you're old now. And that's you're not a playmaker anymore. And he's going to have to balance that as well. The coaching staff, the way they talked about him, seemed very pleased with the way that when he did throw the ball, that he executed,

that he had good timing, good anticipation, which is going to help a lot. I mean, there's a really good throw in that game. You probably saw it the 36-yard gain from Jefferson, where he throws it before he's out of the break. There's four defenders in the area, but none of them can get there because he throws it with anticipation and throws him open. And that's the hard part about this whole decision eventually for O'Connell when J.J. McCarthy is fully healthy is how do you teach somebody on the fly at full speed

with, as you said, simulated pressures, blitzes, deception, all this stuff. I think it's getting harder and harder and harder for a young quarterback to come in and play. And even when a young quarterback has success like a Bo Nix or like a Jaden Daniels, the very next year at the start of the year, things are different. C.J. Stroud, things are different because the amount of stuff they're throwing at him. That's where I don't know with J.J. McCarthy if he's ready to take on that stuff because he's going to see a Detroit Lions defense that's nasty if he plays. against them. He's going to see a Philly defense in that Vic Fangio system. It's just, it's a really

hard league, man. It's very, very hard for these guys to come in. And even with a veteran like Wentz, I think this offense is going to have to turn into something it's never been before, regardless of who is playing quarterback, it's going to have to be something that it's never been before, which is very Kyle Shanahanee, very lean on Jordan Mason, lean on outside zone runs, which I wrote about yesterday and just how much success they had against the Bengals. I think it was 12 outside zone runs to only four gap runs for Jordan Mason and

then play actions and boots off that and that's just not who Kevin O'Connell's been, but also probably the true test of a coach is your ability to adjust. For sure, they're, and it seems like this watching the film, they're going back to that old school style Shanahan

run the ball, get a guy back there who can, you know, edit his read, cut up the middle on outside zone and fall for three or four yards. And that's just not what we've seen. This has been a deep passing game. This has been an explosive team. But Mason is excelling at that role. You're talking about a player who's currently seventh in EPA per play, third in success rate,

third and explosive rate. They're facing him with pretty light boxes, which maybe that'll change as the season goes on. But it's difficult to say that when Justin Jefferson is out there on the outside. And then you look at just his. raw sumer scores. So debating what he is doing every 10th of a second, he's like second. And he's had two pro bowl level games in the last three weeks. And I think this is something that I expected when they made the trade. I thought this was one of the underrated moves of the offseason. And the big question mark, almost the entire time in Kevin O'Connell's tenure as

the Vikings head coach, has been the running game has just not been there. And I think if any time, if there was any time to build a running game, this is certainly the time with the question marks at the quarterback position. I definitely agree. And I think you see it all over the NFL and you see it in Detroit that we have sort of gone to these 2000 to 2005 type of philosophies a little bit.

But those defenses back then were really, really nasty and there was a lot of innovations. And that's kind of what won. And we saw teams like Seattle lean on Sean Alexander or Pittsburgh lean on their run game and have Ben Rothersberger win a bunch of games as a game manager early in his career and then eventually blossom from there.

And whoever's playing quarterback for this team, I think when you get called a game manager, it could be a compliment in this situation where it's not going to be Josh Allen over there. But even, gosh, even watching Lamar Jackson the other night, you're like, oh, Detroit, I think he's doing some different stuff and they're creating pressure and it's getting even harder for him.

this year specifically, I think that's an early trend. So maybe controlling the ball, having longer drives, having a game manager type of style is going to benefit the Vikings in an NFC that is wide, wide open, which is where I wanted to end with you, Sam, which is, you know, when you look at the NFC specifically, can you make sense of it? Can you do something with the NFC?

Gestures at NFC. Hold on. I'm going to pull up here on Fandul. the odds for the conference here for who can win the the nfc and just tell me how you feel about this so right now uh philadelphia plus 280 is the favorite to win the nfc then plus 400 green bay san francisco is plus 480 which is i think a little dubious maybe Tampa bay after that and then Detroit los angeles Washington Minnesota Seattle i just i don't feel good about any of that I think the NFC runs through the NFC North this year.

I think there's no doubt about that. I think you look at the three teams. They are substantially more flawed than they have been in the past, in particular the Vikings quarterback position, the Packers, offensive line, and wide receivers, which has kind of always been the discussion. But their defense is at a substantial better place. So I think they're a little bit more elite.

And then you look at the Lions defensive backfield as well. Those are the three major weaknesses. but I think these three teams alongside the Eagles are in a class of their own at this point. And I hesitated to add the Vikings to that list because of the quarterback issues. But early returns on Christian Darcyl being back in the lineup and seeing the impact that he had last year allows me to launch them up, given the heights that their defense is currently at. I think those are the true four teams that will compete. And I even wouldn't be shocked because they all. have to play each other.

And the NFC East is also, I think, pretty strong outside of the Giants, who just went to Jackson Dart, who knows what that is going to look like. But you're at least dealing with two extremely high-level quarterbacks outside of the Eagles with Jaden Daniels and Dak Prescott, who is playing extremely well right now, despite the stats. And of course, I'm like, of course the guy who breaks the stats is on the team that traded Michael Parsons and et cetera. And then you watch the film and the film actually is good and the interceptions are. weird and so forth and so on. But I think those two divisions in particular are the strength of

this NFC. And I think there's a true top class, which is the Packers, the Lions, the Vikings, and the Eagles. So what about Washington and Seattle in this? Because Sam Darnold has played really well in these first couple of games for them. They've got a Kubiak inspired offense that we're seeing run and play action off of the run, a defense that's pretty impressive. And Washington, I mean, okay, they beat the heck out of the Raiders who are just a bumbling franchise again. Sorry, Tom Brady, just being Tom Brady and having a Microsoft surface or whatever it is up there in the coaching box doesn't mean Gino Smith is good now or that you can block for Ashton Genty. So, anyway, Washington's win.

What do you make of it? But I think that team's pretty strong. And I think Jane Daniels, when he comes back healthy, is still going to be Jade Daniels. We should not write that off just because it's been a bit of a rocky. start. Those two teams to me are hovering in this mix as well. Seattle's defense is on the level of the Vikings defense and I don't think people have realized it. And arguably they may have more star power as well. Leonard Williams is certifiably one of the best players in the national football league. I absolutely loved him last year. And I don't think he got enough credo for what he

was doing. I think he should have been a certifiable all pro at the defensive tackle position. And they're also innovating as Brian Flores is on the defensive side of the ball. Mike McDonald has basically invented a new way to teach defense, and we're seeing it in their defensive statistic. They are confusing people. There are people coming from all over the place, and they are playing really good ball. The two things that frighten me about their offense are Clint Kubiak historically has ran the

ball an extremely high amount over-expected. And when you really look down at the kind of build of a team like this with a really strong defense and an offense running a Shanahan-style offense that runs a lot over-expected, it does remind me of the Texans two years ago and last year. And I'm wondering if the shoe is about to drop at some point for Clint Kubiak as it did for Bobby Slovic. The second thing that alarms me, even though it's great right now, is Jackson Smith and Jigba is operating at a target share of about 40 percent. which we've never quite seen on a regular season basis.

And he's operating extremely efficiently. But I think defenses are going to adjust. You're going to have to see guys like Tori Horton, AJ Barner, the running backs in particular start to step up. And I'm just worried that they're not going to be able to do that. And I think those are my two major fears about the Seahawks in particular for 2025, the rest of 2025. I saw Tori Horton return a touchdown.

And I was like, I suddenly became a draft guy. because I was like, hey, I liked that guy in my mock drafts or my draft sims or whatever. But you're right, the depth of that wide receiver group, you know, suspicious. And I think as seasons go along, it becomes harder and harder if you don't have depth at the receiver spot. But I just feel like in general, it's all up in the air right now in the NFC. And even though Philadelphia is probably the leader because they won the Super Bowl, I think that they've shown some flaws as well and probably should have, to the Los Angeles Rams, who also belong in this very much in this conversation as well.

The problem is I think Philly has the most glaring weakness of any team, but it's a single weakness. And that is their cornerback position is getting picked apart, targeted, fried, barbecued, whatever you can say. Anytime there's a good quarterback there, they are going after the Adori Jackson position or the Jacorian Bennett position on the last drive. of the Rams Eagles game, I think Jacorian Bennett was targeted something like six or seven times. And he was having the lineup against Pooka Nakua, and Pooka Nakua was just absolutely

dominating him. We saw that in week one with Adori Jackson and a myriad of players highlighted by C.D. Lamb, who unfortunately kind of forgot how to catch the ball in that week. Otherwise, he would add 200 plus yards. There is not that singular level of weakness across those top-level teams. The Packers do not have a level of weakness like that. Even though they have cornerback issues, I would say Terran Ardold is a class above those cornerbacks. And then the Vikings, I think the quarterback is a major problem. I think it can be figured out to a certain degree in a way that we just haven't seen the Eagles be able to figure out that cornerback position, especially since that was their major issue two years ago. I think that is the biggest

a weakness of any team. I don't put it past Howie Roseman to solve that at the trade deadline by moving players around with Nick Siriani on the depth chart. Maybe we see Cooper DeGine flex out to the cornerback position. Maybe we see an addition of an older player through free agency. I do think it will be addressed, but it's been solidly picked on through three weeks. Weaknesses on the secondary are like a basketball lineup. If you have one guy out there and you know you could just hunt that line of that matchup they'll do it uh you're only as good as your weakness there and the secondary so that is uh interesting especially they have a matchup coming up with the vikings in a couple of weeks sam brook house sumer sports show senior data scientists over

at sumer sports you guys have launched some very fascinating data so uh folks should go over check out sumersports.com and what you guys are doing there as well as your show uh lindsay roads is a many time guest of this show as well you guys are awesome together on that show. So great to get back together with you, man. And I hope we can do it again soon. I really appreciate the time. Appreciate it. Football. Football.