Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Data scientist Tej Seth makes the trade-down argument for the Vikings and Derrik Klassen breaks down the QBs

Episode Date: March 3, 2023

Matthew Coller is joined at the NFL Combine by Sumer Sports data scientist Tej Seth, who deep dives into why interior pressure is so important, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah trading down, how the Vikings should ...handle the QB situation and more. And then Derrik Klassen from Football Outsiders and Bleacher Report breaks down the top quarterbacks, explaining why he has Anthony Richardson at QB2. He thinks it's possible that Will Levis falls in the draft and analyzes whether the Vikings should take Levis if that happens. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collard here and joining me from the NFL Combine. Indy is Tej Seth, Sumer Sports Data Scientist. Also, you are an honorable mention in the Big Data Bowl. And I know that this podcast only accepts winners of things, not honorable mention. But there was over a thousand submissions to the Big Data Bowl. They whittle it down to eight. You're right on the cusp of that. So congratulations on that, Tej. And it's great to have you back on the show this time in
Starting point is 00:00:50 person as opposed to just in a Twitter box or a Zoom box, I mean. Yeah, no, this is great. Thanks for having me on. I'm really excited to be here. It's fun to hold a microphone, sit next to you here and talk some ball today. Yeah, I actually didn't give you any like tips on how to hold the microphone uh you're really caressing it there so try to just hold it kind of like in one spot there you go like a golf club right exactly um so tell me about before we get into it because i want to ask you about draft charts and trading down because i asked quacey adafo mensa about that yesterday, and his answer was rather kind of vague about it depends on the year and every time you trade back, you're losing an opportunity for a good player, but dot, dot, dot.
Starting point is 00:01:36 But you can explain this in more mathematical terms. But your big data bowl project is really super interesting. So I'd love you to tell me about that because that is maybe a lesser known element of the combine where people submit all these analytical projects based on tracking data. And then they give presentations and basically the whole NFL shows up. So if a GM says, we don't really know about them, analytics, everything else. Almost every team is there in the room at the big data bowl. So all teams pretty much at this point, Dave Gettleman's out of the league. Almost everybody is all in on analytics. So anyway, but I'd love to hear about your project. Yeah, for sure. And for people who don't know about the big data bowl, the NFL does have chips
Starting point is 00:02:21 in player shoulder pads that tracks where they are on the field every 10th of a second. And so it'll give their location from an X, Y coordinate standpoint, as well as their acceleration, their speed. And you can use all this information that becomes this really big data set to create some pretty cool models. So this year it was relating to offensive and defensive line. And there are a couple of different ways to approach this. You could create an overarching metric to evaluate offensive defensive linemen. You could create something that could help defensive or offensive coordinators game plan. And that's kind of the route that we took with our submission is if we can give something to a defensive coach that can help them game plan, what is something that they might look for? And we thought that sacks are one
Starting point is 00:03:03 of the most important things that a defense can do. And we created a model that gives the percent chance that a player gets a sack on every play based on where they're lined up, what position they are, how the offense is formation is. And this was turned into a dashboard where a user can come and play around with the player inputs and features and see where they can get a sack. And I think this relates to the Vikings too, especially as with Brian Flores coming in as defensive coordinator, he has these unique pressure packages that the Vikings are really going to lean into a lot more than they did last year. And using this type of data, I think can help them kind of come to that standpoint where they're picking and choosing where to line up players to increase their chance of getting a sack. So what did you find? I mean, was there a commonality
Starting point is 00:03:48 between certain formations or the way that players lined up that did result in more sacks? Yeah, we found that the biggest feature for a player getting a sack on a play is their distance from the quarterback. And we thought that was really crucial because you don't want to make the path for a defensive lineman to get to the quarterback a lot longer than it should be and we thought this was also important because defensive tackles I think are affecting the game now more than they they used to these these past couple years and so when they're lined up closely to the quarterback they can really affect them from having the shortest path to them to get that sack. I really appreciate you saying that because we have been banging the drum for a pass rushing defensive tackle for years.
Starting point is 00:04:31 I mean, the Vikings really haven't had a true three down pass rusher defensive tackle since Sheree Floyd, who last played in early 2016. That's how long it's been since they've really had that guy. Oh, well, I guess of Sheldon Richardson, 2018, but the most recent version of Sheldon Richardson was a little more dodgy when it came to actually creating pressure. So really those are the only two that I could think of for the Vikings. And since then they've had run stuffers and they're considering bringing back Delvin Tomlinson on a pretty big contract, more likely than not.
Starting point is 00:05:02 And as much as I respect Delvin Tomlinson and really like his game, I kind of question that because of what you're talking about. When I watch Fletcher Cox, when I watch Chris Jones and I see how they impact quarterbacks and Dexter Lawrence in the playoffs against Kirk cousins, I like, do you want that? I want that.
Starting point is 00:05:19 Right. Like we should want that. So I think that that kind of confirms. And also there are very few of those guys. Like there's just, there's not like 50 edge rushers who could sack the quarterback. There's like eight defensive tackles who can consistently do it. That, that was one of my big takeaways from the season was like a player like Chris Jones can really take over a game.
Starting point is 00:05:39 I think in a way that an edge rusher can to an extent, but an address, there's a lot of things that you can do from chipping them with a tight end. And I think from a defensive tackles perspective, like it's a lot easier to, to get to the quarterback because of the distance that we talked about. So I am with you where I think these, these pass rushing defensive tackles have become more important recently and we'll continue to do so because of how they can completely take over games and, and ruin these offensive lines. From that perspective, should the Bears just draft Jalen Carter? I think that's definitely on the table for the Bears. I mean, I think we're going to talk about trading down, but that would probably be their first option is to trade down and still get an
Starting point is 00:06:16 impact defensive player. But if you rate Jalen Carter higher than Will Anderson, I think you could still make an argument for taking Jalen Carter there when before it used to always be the edge over the defensive tackle. But now I think with the way that these newer defenses are being played, that Jalen Carter is probably going to be of more importance as the league continues here. Yeah. And I was looking at just Miami's defense with Flores and when they succeeded, Christian Wilkins was a big part of that. And he was another guy that throttled the Vikings. I know all the defensive tackles. I know them by name and their entire profiles because the Vikings have no interior offensive line for the entire time I've covered them.
Starting point is 00:06:54 So they've all pressured Kirk Cousins. And I've seen it quite a bit in person. But even when you have mobile quarterbacks and you can get to them quickly and disrupt them and force them out to the edges. I mean, I just feel like that's a different element of a pass rush that not everyone has that makes you unique. So I really like that. And again, congratulations on getting the honorable mention from the big data bowl. That is very cool. But I did want to ask about trading down because, well, the Bears might do it and the Vikings certainly should, I think like in theory. Um, and I've been trying
Starting point is 00:07:26 to prepare the audience for the possibility that they won't have a first round pick and we might just have a big old draft show and nothing happened. Uh, but where does the kind of rubber meet the road when it comes to trading down? Like how would you, if that was your big data bull task, figure out, is it a good idea to trade down? Yeah. So when you look at it from the Jimmy Johnson trade chart perspective, the Jimmy Johnson trade chart was created decades ago now, and it kind of factored in the value of the player that you're going to get from the pick. But what it didn't factor in was the contract that you're going to give the player
Starting point is 00:08:05 based on where you get selected players at the top of the draft, get a much bigger contract than players later in the draft. And, you know, the other option is the fifth year option aspect of things where only players in the first round have the option of having their fifth year option get picked up while players after that are on the four-year contract. So when you factor all that into that, you can get new draft charts that take into account how much money the player will be making over the first four years of their contract. And that's where the surplus value that analytics people talk so much about comes into play. Not only is it the player that you're getting, but it's also the surplus value they're providing
Starting point is 00:08:45 above what their rookie contract is. Because the NFL is not an efficient market because of rookie contracts. Since there's a set value, you have to pay a player based on where they're drafted. While when they're on the open market, when they're in free agency, they get basically the market value for them. But when you can look at kind of the surplus value across draft picks, people overestimate how much a top 10 pick is worth to their team because of how much that contract is. And they underestimate the picks from, let's say like 20 onward into the second
Starting point is 00:09:18 round because those contracts are a lot less and it's really hard to project college to pro. And when you can get multiple players at those spots and you're paying them less, you should be able to get value out of them. Um, and according to these charts, right? So the thing that I think about with this in, and I know it, it's not like a new point to be made, but when you look at teams who win the super bowl, they have hall of fame players, no doubt, like every single one of them, every single team that wins the super bowl has probably multiple hall of fame players. No doubt, like every single one of them, every single team that wins the Super Bowl has probably multiple Hall of Fame players. And it's a lot harder to draft multiple Hall of Fame players
Starting point is 00:09:51 or any Hall of Fame players in the second round than it is with a top 10 draft pick. And this is where I understand what Jimmy Johnson was thinking. And of course, he didn't know the contract structure of future CBAs. So, I mean, I thought he actually did an amazing job with that for the time that it was done. But what you can really see in the Jimmy Johnson chart is it is loaded up on those top picks because I think he understood there's probably only five to seven prospects in a given draft who could ever maximize their potential to the point to reach the hall of fame. And everyone else is just outliers. If you find a Stefan digs in the fifth round, like, okay, but you can't do that very
Starting point is 00:10:28 often. Right. That's just a total lucky guess. And that's where with the Vikings last year, I'm not saying they traded out of a hall of fame player and Jameson Williams or Kyle Hamilton, but I thought when they went back as far as they did, you moved out of the range where you even have a chance at one, where you have a chance at a aaron donald or micah parsons because i think fringe top 10 you still have that potential opportunity where the vikings are now at 23 if you move back to 36 i don't think the difference is very much but i really do think that moving from the top 10 12 15 way back it's hard to make the argument based on economics to me, because you need someone
Starting point is 00:11:06 to be a freak to actually like dominate games and win. And it's okay to pay freaks, right? I think you can win with guys who are absolutely the best at their sport, who have big contracts, if that makes sense. No, I'm definitely with you. I think the two trades that Kweisi Adolfo Menza made last year on the first two days or in the first two rounds, the one with the Lions where he traded from 12 to 32, I think didn't get as much value for the Vikings as the second trade he made where he ended up getting those two second round picks from the Packers. That was the real winning trade because, like you mentioned, it does get smoother when you get to that spot in the draft. There usually is a distinctive top 14, top 16 players in the draft, and then a drop off after that.
Starting point is 00:11:50 So yeah, I agree with where the Vikings are at this year. I think we're probably going to see a trade back because Kweisi will understand these draft charts that we're talking about better than almost anyone and can take advantage of other GMs who want to trade up and have overconfidence in their ability to scout from a college to pro level. While Kwesi has a better understanding of taking, having more darts to throw at the dart board should be better over time. Well, and they have so little draft capital, only two top 100 draft picks, and it feels like they just need more darts. Another thing I wanted to ask you about was when they moved back and they picked, you
Starting point is 00:12:26 know, Louis seen Andrew Booth Jr. One of those is a premium position for the cornerback. Neither of them did anything this year because of injuries. Now, there's no way to predict whether those injuries will be problematic or not. But how long in your mind should you wait? And I don't know if you've ever looked at this or you could just give your opinion, but how long should we wait to really evaluate someone's draft? Because you've always heard like, well, you need three years and it's like, well,
Starting point is 00:12:53 it's draft night tonight. So I really have to have an opinion today. But I think that the answer might actually be three, but, but I don't know. I don't know what you think, because I think that it's fair for Vikings fans to not make a judgment on those two players. And that based on rookie seasons, we probably shouldn't at all, unless someone is an absolute monster and gets 15 sacks or something. Okay. Then, you know, you've got to hit like Micah Parsons. But aside from that, I think everybody's kind of up in the air for at least another year. No, I'm, I'm with you with the three years, but I think it's very position dependent. Like for example, tight ends is one of those positions that are more
Starting point is 00:13:30 slower developing. It takes until your fourth year until you're fully fleshed out tight end. While we see for like positions like receivers recently where these day receivers are coming in day one and really succeeding. And I think that goes back to, if you're looking at the organizations that really study this stuff and study kind of aging curves and where it happens, the Browns gave David Ajoku an extension before his breakout season this season, because they understood that's when tight ends usually come out. And then the Vikings trading for TJ Hawkinson knew that he probably hasn't reached a ceiling yet, even despite putting up pretty good production in Detroit. And he was really good for the Vikings, especially down the stretch. And they're probably going to give him
Starting point is 00:14:07 an extension here as well. So I think it depends on the position, but I do think like, if you're looking for like an overarching rule, the three years is definitely the right option. And that's where the fifth year option has to get decided as well. So I think that's kind of where the league sees it as, as well. No, you make a great point because even with Garrett Bradbury, we finally in year four stars him like develop into a reasonably good center and offensive line, I think is really famous for this. And this is why when the Vikings drafted a guard last year, they reached on him. So that was part of the problem. But when you drafted him to start, but don't do that. Every time you draft a rookie offensive lineman to start, you are rolling the dice that he might give up the most pressures in the NFL and the most sacks in the entire PFF era.
Starting point is 00:14:49 By the way, I feel like I haven't brought that up in a while and should bring it up again that he gave up 11 sacks this year. And that is the most since 2006, like tied with maybe one or two other guys. But that doesn't even mean that Ed Ingram is going to be a horrible guard. It just means that a lot of rookies are in over their head. So I think what the Vikings should do with this draft is to try to find players that not this year are going to plug spots that they have, but two years from now can be major players. And whether it's Brian Flores or someone who's within his staff that takes over for him and they they like his system for example but you need to
Starting point is 00:15:25 look for somebody who's going to be over a number of years a guy that you can build around as opposed to just so often this team's like well we really do need a safety to play next to harrison smith we really do need a guard so why don't we just take them but i also think that's easier said than done if you're us as opposed to them being oh, we didn't really get that in free agency. So where do we get it now? Yeah, no, I definitely agree with that. And I think the ability to kind of plan for the future while also competing at the same time is a thing that teams have a lot of time kind of straddling the line between. And I think like the Eagles, for example, do like a really good job of this. They take Cam Juergen at center while Jason Kelsey is finishing up his career because development is so huge at positions like center, like you mentioned,
Starting point is 00:16:08 where they really think that they could help them there. Or they take Jordan Davis while they have other interior defensive linemen so he doesn't have to take on the full brunt. And when you have to throw a rookie kind of into the starting lineup from week one and they're not a first round rookie, like I think it becomes really difficult from their perspective. And something that we've researched is they usually play at about like a 25th, 30th percentile player when they, when they start as rookies and then that gradually raises over time. So if you have to count on a 30th percentile player from day one, you're probably going to be below average of that position for the majority of the season. So that's a tough thing to kind of grasp. I think if you're a team builder or GM.
Starting point is 00:16:47 A team builder, yes, which is what they are. That's a deep, deep cut reference to the Sumer Sports Show, Thomas Dimitrov, that Eric Eager is on, our friend. But so the quarterback situation is always looming over the Vikings. And I got the impression, I don't want to say for sure, because who knows what the Vikings will do. Whoever knows what they'll do. But I got the impression that Tom Pellicero from NFL networks reporting is in line with Kweisi Adafo-Mentz's comments where they don't want to sign on
Starting point is 00:17:20 Kirk's side, a short-term extension. And I think the Vikings would prefer a short-term extension to lower his immediate cap hit. But if they can't, they just might have to ride it out because I don't know that they're going to bend and pay a 35 year old quarterback for a four year contract or something like that, which leads us down only one winding little road Taysian that is to quarterback draft land. This year seems hard though, but I also don't want to trust the mock
Starting point is 00:17:45 drafters like the mock drafters think that four quarterbacks are going in the top 10 i get that but i don't know that they're right about that uh when is the right time for the vikings to draft a quarterback would it be this year if they needed to trade up to get i mean i assume it's anthony richardson but i don't know like it could be Levis, who's the fourth quarterback. It could be CJ Stroud. Like we never really know. I thought Justin Fields was going to go number three overall. Like we never really know, uh, because, and this is why if you hear draft buzz, this is just a little, little lesson for you, Tash, because you're a data guy, not a reporter. If somebody's reporting where anyone is getting drafted, they are lying to you or, or whoever their source is not good. Because if you
Starting point is 00:18:25 tell people inside teams who you're drafting, you get fired. Just keep that in mind. Uh, but more likely than not, the Vikings would have to trade up this year with very little draft capital and a roster that is shaky. However, you could give a rookie quarterback, Justin Jefferson, that helps next year though. They might have a higher draft pick based on their schedule and just how things look at the moment. How would you balance this decision? Like if Kwesi Adafo-Mento walked over to you, I know he's a hero of yours, and said, you know, Tej, I haven't heard your take on this. Give me your take. Direct me, Tej. I would wait until next year, personally, because like you mentioned, the low draft capital this year, I think, makes it harder to trade up.
Starting point is 00:19:10 And we talked about how trading back is better for when you're taking non-quarterbacks. But when you're looking to take a quarterback, you should want to trade up then. You will lose the trade and the draft charts, kind of. But it's worth it to try to get your franchise quarterback in. We know the benefits of a rookie contract. Quarterback can really help. And I think the position that the Vikings are at this year at 23, where their record overperformed probably how good the team was, we can expect some regression there from that aspect.
Starting point is 00:19:42 And I think that they are probably expecting regression in the win department as well. So they are probably going to be better suited next year to take a quarterback, see what they can kind of get out of Kirk and Justin Jefferson, whatever they decide to put around them this year. Because something that's important when you're going through a roster retool, like the Vikings might go through this off season, is having competent quarterback play to let you evaluate the rest of the roster, right? Like I look at like the Falcons right now where they weren't able to get that quarterback play this year and they don't
Starting point is 00:20:14 know if their offensive line is that good. They don't know if their weapons are that good or if they're kind of more manufactured. But like Kirk Cousins will give you that competent quarterback play. So I think that they can ride it with him this year as they look to kind of evaluate some other areas of the roster and then start planning for the future at quarterback the next year when they have that big Justin Jefferson cap hit where they'll need a rookie contract quarterback to balance that out. I think that your logic is sound, but I feel like it's just like a relationship, you know,
Starting point is 00:20:44 an old gentleman like myself has had one girlfriend and i married her so i know all about relationships uh but if you're gonna break up with somebody if you know that you're gonna break up with someone which again i've never actually done but if you know it you should just do it you know what i mean because then it just gets ugly like if you've decided that you can't stand something about the person and it might even be contract wise, I think they like Kirk cousins as the quarterback, but contract wise future, like we, we just, there's no future with this girl.
Starting point is 00:21:13 She's moving to Alaska to study frozen dolphins or something like we just, it's not going to work out and you should just break up with her at the beginning of the summer. And as opposed to waiting to the end of the summer, when she goes to study dolphins in Alaska. This is just like the Kirk Cousins situation. The point is when you know it's over, it's over. I feel this way about firing coaches.
Starting point is 00:21:32 When you're going to fire a coach, don't wait. Don't wait until you really hate him. Just fire him. They should have fired Mike Zimmer after 2020 as opposed to just waiting until it crumbled and was ridiculous by the end of 2021. I feel the same thing with quarterbacks. Now that's easy for me to say because I don't have to convince an owner of this, but if, if I even owned the Vikings and I was told he's not going
Starting point is 00:21:56 to sign a long-term extension or we don't want to sign them to a long-term extension, he's not going to do a short-term deal. And the way it's really hard to project us actually winning the Super Bowl tear the band-aid off that's the way I look at it but I don't think that that's exactly realistic and how kind of things work usually just like with Derek Carr you can know you're done but if you made the playoffs the last year you're gonna have to wait to see it that's what I think it comes back to is we want to sit here and say teams should be doing everything they can to win Super Bowls and like that's what we want to see from these teams is is you might take one step back to go two steps forward as long as it propels you closer to a Super Bowl but I
Starting point is 00:22:36 think some of these teams at the end of the day the philosophy is to make the playoffs to stay relevant it's what keeps the owners happy it's what keeps the fans engaged throughout the whole season it's tough to go through multiple losing seasons, even if it means that there's light at the end of the tunnel. Those days become dark as a fan or as an employee of the team. So that's why I think if you're the Vikings, it's hard to pitch when you had a record like you did last year and you're able to win the division and host a home playoff game, it's hard to pitch moving on from one of the pieces that was like one of the main reasons why you had that team level success. So that's why I think like the Vikings will probably just ride it out one more year and kind of see, like I mentioned earlier, like the other areas of the
Starting point is 00:23:20 roster and like where they can fix it for when a rookie quarterback comes in. But there are like, I think different ways to go about it. Like they did try to take Helen Mond in the, in the second round, right? Like that didn't end up working. So third round, or sorry, third round, like you can always take like these, these chances on, on quarterbacks and you can never really have too many quarterbacks. Right. So I think there, there are different ways to go about it if they don't want to trade up in the first round for, for a quarterback, but there, it gets a lot tougher, obviously, obviously, as you go deeper in the draft. Last thing for you, Tej, you're you're a Lions follower. The roar was restored last year and
Starting point is 00:23:56 their competitiveness is back for the first time since quite a while. I mean, Jim Caldwell was a good coach. But what do you think they're going to do? I mean, they are loaded with draft capital. They have an awkward quarterback situation where Jared Goff was actually good and had an offense probably capable of, I mean, meeting the threshold for being a Super Bowl contender for just on their offense last year. I would imagine that they don't do anything radical here. I know people have mocked Anthony Richardson to them, but I think they're just going to draft some defense. And that's probably the right thing to do because you mentioned the surplus value. I'm in Ross, St. Brown, Aiden Hutchinson. Like they have surplus value all around Jared golf. This is the thing about the discussions with quarterback contracts. It's not impossible to win when you have a big quarterback contract. It's just that
Starting point is 00:24:43 you need like seven other dudes on rookie contracts around that guy to kind of balance the books. But if there's one team in the league that has it, it's actually the Lions. So how do you think that they'll approach this draft? Yeah. And I, I mean, you're getting me excited here talking about all the resources lines have available, but I I'm, I'm with you. I don't think they end up taking a quarterback. I think they should take a quarterback because like we mentioned, having the rookie contract there, when you have to start paying Amon Ross, St. Brown, Penny Sewell, they're going to get really big contracts because they've like proven to be at the top of their position. And like, it'll help to have a quarterback making $20 million less than Goff there.
Starting point is 00:25:19 And there's, there's quarterbacks with like high ceilings that, that can really propel this team. But I think the Lions based on having like a very high-level offense like you mentioned, but one of the worst defenses in the league, will load up on defense throughout the draft. I think Devin Witherspoon is someone that's popularly mocked to them as the cornerback that can kind of fill that role there. Later on, they'll probably look for some defensive line or, or edge talent. And then through free agency as well, like, I think they're going to, they're going to put a
Starting point is 00:25:50 decent amount of resources into defense. They have some cap room to do that. So I think it's going to be a very defensive focused off season, but like, like the Vikings, I think the guard position on offense is something that the Lions do need to fix. And I think that'll be something that they end up taking on day two or around there to kind of fix that area. But the roster is getting better. I think there's still some holes and the offense should have a little bit of regression, I think, that needs to be accounted for. But overall, I think the Lions fans or even me myself should feel pretty optimistic about the direction the team is going in. But you always have to kind of wait to see how it plays out with with the moving pieces and everything. I think as of right now, I would project the Lions to win the division next year, which I know if you have been a Lions follower your whole life is like, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:26:41 But as of this moment, that's how. So if Aaron Rodgers were to return to green bay like for sure would that change your opinion on that or would you still lean the lions i would say no i i mean i think that aaron rogers could be better than he was last year but also i'm not convinced that it's a lot better yeah like i think what happened at the end of the season with the lions beating the packers is kind of like how it would look again where the lions are just a stronger overall team than green Bay. And Rogers is really restrictive to them. That conversation never
Starting point is 00:27:10 mattered when he was an MVP about how expensive he was. It does matter when he's not an MVP. And I just, I don't see enough flexibility for them to create a much better roster. And I think that they would get mostly the same results, maybe like nine wins instead of eight or seven, but you know, I, I just don't see them being the same results, maybe like nine wins instead of eight or seven. But, you know, I I just don't see them being a great team, which is sort of famous last words. If you're talking about Packers quarterbacks where you always think, no, now he's dead and then comes back from the dead and, you know, finds a way. Because we thought Rogers was washed. It was kind of it was mostly a joke, but like, you know, his numbers, his numbers are going down or whatever. And then like two MVPs later, you should never, when it's,
Starting point is 00:27:46 when it's a guy of that caliber, you should never say it's over till it's over. I mean, the same thing with Brady. He had that down year with new England, but just history shows you far. Oh, he's washed with the jets, comes here, takes him to the NFC championship game. Like don't ever say with hall of famers that it's over. Tej really enjoyed having you on and enjoy getting to know you in person as opposed to just through the internet.
Starting point is 00:28:08 So he's good. And what is your Twitter? Is it just Tej Seth, T E J S E T H. It's a T E J F B analytics. I got to let people know I do football analytics, right? That's right.
Starting point is 00:28:19 I thought I'd be the only Tej to do this, this type of thing. If there's another one that comes along, maybe I'll have to change the, the, the username there. There there's another one that comes along, maybe I'll have to change the the the username that there will be. I mean, kids, mothers are naming their kids page FB analytics right now, actually. So based on your work now, but seriously, I really love all your analytical work and I love bringing that element to our audience as well.
Starting point is 00:28:40 Great insight. Really appreciate having you on. And again, congratulations on the honorable mention from the big data. Thanks for doing this. Yeah. Thanks for having me on. This is a lot of fun. I always enjoy it. All right. Now we welcome into the show. Mr. QB class on Twitter himself. He has been on the show many times, but never in person. But here we are in Indianapolis at the NFL Combine. Derek Klassen. Great to have you, buddy. What's going on, man? Good to be here. Good to do the show in person. This is like fourth or fifth time, but it's good to be in person now, not over there. Now I'm not obligated.
Starting point is 00:29:18 The thing is now I cannot be obligated to do a dog pun, even though I've never done them, because my dog is not here to bark, so I'm good. That's right. That happens a lot to you. But, you know, you could still mix in a dog pun if you want you know you can call a prospect you can say he's got more bark than bite or something uh like that um you could say you know he's got a lot of tail he's got some fleas to him um okay that's a great way to really start the show but i wanted to talk you'll never believe it quarterbacks with you because the vik Vikings have an interesting situation on their hands with the way things work out with Kirk Cousins contract. This is the time where everybody
Starting point is 00:29:50 starts going, wait a minute, should they actually draft a quarterback? Because he's going into the last year of his contract. People bring up the Alex Smith situation where they had won 12 games. They trade up to get the homes and everyone went like, what are you doing? You won 12 games. And then they picked the best quarterback ever. Uh, and, and so I think that there's a lot of dots being connected, especially with Anthony Richardson. So I would love your opinion on just how they should handle this situation with cousins. Should they let it play out for a year and draft next year? Should they just put all their chips into the middle of the table and trade up? Are they going to be able to trade up? Thoughts? I think what it's going to take to go up to get one of these quarterbacks is really the biggest obstacle because I would love for them to go up and get Anthony Richardson or, you know, I mean, whoever it is that they really like. I would love
Starting point is 00:30:41 for them to do that because I do think it's not even just that Cousins is going into his final year. It's like, I think at this point we've seen everything Kirk Cousins can be. He's quarterback 14 in the NFL, and that's probably never going to be good enough, especially with the money that they're paying him. So I think you kind of have to move on. It's just going to take a lot for them to get up there. I think especially like, I think the closer we get to the draft, we're going to realize like all these guys are going top eight and like that's going to be a lot of movement for them and I just don't know even how many at a certain point like teams just might not be willing to move or other teams I think like the Colts in particular maybe the Raiders are just going to maybe be more desperate because they don't have a guy right now right like the Vikings
Starting point is 00:31:21 might be in their head like if we can't trade up worst case we still have Kirk for another year we'll figure it out after then um so I don't know I think it's going to be tough for them to go up and get a guy I think so too and not having a lot of draft capital does not help they traded their second round pick for TJ Hawkinson which was a really good trade for them and he's a very good player uh and they're going to probably sign him to an extension so like you you get a win with that at the same time you can't give someone a second if you're trying to move up the other part of it is that everyone needs to draft a quarterback when you go through the top 12 teams you're like yep yep yep like even if even if they didn't believe that
Starting point is 00:32:01 anthony richardson which i'm assuming that a lot of people have him is fourth maybe you'll have a different opinion on that out of these quarterbacks but even if that you know that he was the you know maybe i don't know if even if it was a different situation he would be 15th or something and the vikings would still struggle to try and trade up because they have so little draft capital but if they were to reach deep into the future maybe they could try to pull something off it just feels like there's so many teams in the current landscape that have a great argument that no one is even trading with you to let you have them yes exactly like i just the quarterback market like this quarterback class i think is fine but i think the market is really driving all these guys up because there's not really any free I mean Lamar might be a free agent so that that could kind of change some things I think
Starting point is 00:32:49 especially for some of the teams that um have some more established head coaches and really want just a guy that they I think they know they can play um but like the market is just it's really driving a lot of these rookies up the boards and so for a team like Minnesota where like you're not desperate in the market necessarily it's really tough for them to actually do anything whereas like i said like colts raiders i mean those teams they got to go it's go time panthers even like it's time to go for those teams uh let's uh just say an imagination land though um if you're a south park fan you know imagination imagination land, which is where the Vikings go deep in the playoffs. Now, I'm just I'm sorry I had to say it. But let's say that it is on the table that the Vikings could get Richardson because sometimes we're surprised and people drop.
Starting point is 00:33:35 You mentioned Lamar Jackson will drop when we don't expect them to. What is your opinion on him? Because I don't want to say he's a divisive prospect because most of the tape watchers seem to think that he's a top 10 type of player. I think this is very different than Malik Willis, where it's getting some conversation about like, well, is he kind of like Malik Willis? Well, if he's drafted in the top 10, he isn't because the league is going to tell you he isn't. But I guess what do you see in him as a prospect? Would that be worth it if other teams let him drop? I think absolutely. I mean, for me, he's actually my quarterback, too, just because like the upside is just it's so immense.
Starting point is 00:34:15 Like he's a guy who's built basically like Cam Newton. He's probably a little bit skinnier, but like he's going to run, I think, out of his mind this week. He's just an insane athlete. But what I think separates him from Willis, one, I think people really undersold that Willis was like 6'1 and 200 pounds. Like that's just not a generational type of athlete at the position. He could obviously run and he had a good arm, but like when you're that small, it's just different. Whereas Anthony Richardson is like 6'3, 6'4", 230 pounds so he's built like a huge franchise quarterback and I think that matters but my big thing with Richardson is like I know he's inaccurate right now I know he's a little bit inconsistent but the way he manages the pocket to me kind of
Starting point is 00:34:57 it gives me hope that he can kind of develop as a player because I think he actually has the best pocket management in the class he's just really good at understanding where to move, where pressure is coming from, understanding like, okay, if I'm hot, just check the ball down, throw it away. Like he's very unsackable, not just from an athletic standpoint, but just understanding how to play the position. And that to me kind of speaks to like, if you can get that, like that's, that's the hard stuff to teach about quarterbacking, right? It's like knowing what to do with the ball how to manage the pocket I just feel like if he can do that stuff you can kind of hone in on some of the mechanics and fix a little bit of the rest and I think he could be a really good player I think it's still risky but I like him a lot see this is the massive
Starting point is 00:35:37 difference between him and Willis Willis got sacked all the time yes and one of the problems that even Justin Fields has is like seeing things progress in front of you and being able to react to those things and willis clearly could not yes and i think that that's what nfl teams are going to care about the most because if you can't read a react in college where you've got usually all day it's funny to me watching college games because i'm like throw it you're gonna throw it you're gonna throw it how is there no one pressuring you how are you not dead it's been it's been 19 seconds and you right in the nfl it's two and a half seconds is the standard and i see a quickness in richardson's
Starting point is 00:36:14 game that is mental not just physical when it comes to his speed and arm strength so i agree with you that like the other parts of his game, it's so much focused on his accuracy and consistency throwing the ball, which is a problem, but there's, there's more to it than that when it comes to being a good NFL quarterback. A hundred percent. Like, I mean,
Starting point is 00:36:33 like I said, like he just, he does some of that hard stuff where like, it's just really hard to teach. You can't, it's really hard to teach a guy to speed his mental clock up like that. Like, like,
Starting point is 00:36:42 I mean, like for as much as I liked fields, like he probably just is always going to be a quarterback who gets sacked a lot you hope that he just does enough good that it kind of outweighs it like with Richardson I just really don't think that that's a problem he just is a guy who who has that part of the game figured out and it really is just like ironing down some of the mechanics and like my thing with him too is like he only started one year and like on a team that the receivers clearly just never knew how to play the ball in the air and so I think that kind of you know hurt some of his accuracy
Starting point is 00:37:09 and stuff a little bit he still has his own issues but like it just feels like he seems like a guy who if you can get an adult in the room with him as a coach give him a little bit of time he just seems like a guy who can kind of figure it out well and i just after patrick mahomes i always have trouble buying like oh well his footwork yeah there there are things that you can fix in this and footwork is one of them and it's not that richardson was wildly inaccurate all the time it was when he would get messy yeah with the footwork that that throws with sale on him i i guess we're always trying to analyze what's correctable. In my mind, that's correctable.
Starting point is 00:37:47 And I also thought, too, that his toughness that he showed during last season, we didn't see a lot of frustration from him. We didn't see any screwball stuff like with Baker Mayfield or Johnny Manziel, where you're like, maybe you guys should have seen some of that coming, that that wasn't going to disappear, the guy's maturity issues. But but with Anthony Richardson, he checks all of those boxes. And I think this is why he will ultimately go in the top 10. But he is by far the most interesting prospect in this, because I think some teams will see different things with him. A hundred percent. And like even to speak to that, that like toughness, even from like a mental perspective,
Starting point is 00:38:23 like I remember watching Jared Goff at Cal actually and he just he was kind of a guy who like if he made a mistake they kind of started to build on each other and the game just really got away from him and like games got away from Florida as a team but Anthony Richardson in particular it just didn't seem like games got away from him it seemed like he just kept going he kept battling like he just kind of did what he did and like if the chips didn't fall, right. I mean, sometimes they just don't, but he just seemed like a guy who did a really good job of keeping a level head. And I think for an NFL quarterback, that is very, very important. And I think we've, we've seen that with a lot of guys who, you know, come from, I think too, especially like a lot of the bigger
Starting point is 00:39:01 programs who like haven't necessarily had to battle that it can be really tough for them to go into the NFL. Whereas like with Richardson, I mean, Florida is a big program, but they didn't, it's not Bama, it's not Ohio state, it's not Clemson. And so, um, I think he, he has a little bit of that toughness to him that I think he should be able to figure it out. Well, I remember a player telling me that they lost like one game in college. I forget who it was, but it was like, there is not a lot of adversity for some programs and the NFL it's every single week. And when, and when you lose, it's the end of the world. But as you mentioned, coming from a big program that was struggling and he made them relevant. And I thought of that too. And of course there are other guys who have done this and have
Starting point is 00:39:39 not worked out in the NFL, but when Dak Prescott took a team that was pretty mediocre too bad and made them relevant and good and anthony richardson took over a team that was pretty horrendous in florida and made them relevant kept them in the game with georgia like those are just things that i kind of pick up on because i figure if the nfl is going to draft them in the first round it means they have the other skills how do you feel about will le? He is not getting debated that much, but when I watched him, I was not very impressed with his accuracy. His numbers the previous season were really good though. And I remember with Josh Allen, I didn't pay enough attention to that, that his numbers from the previous year before the draft were actually quite good.
Starting point is 00:40:20 Is there like a comparison there with Allen with Will Levis? Not for me. Uh, just because I think the easy starting point is just Josh Allen was six, five, 240 pounds cyborg athlete. He was hurtling people and scrambling around 30 yards behind the line of scrimmage and doing stuff you're only really supposed to do in Madden, but he was making it work anyway. Um, Will Levis to me is just not that caliber of athlete. I mean, his arm is, it's not Allen's arm, but he has a very good arm. But I think the athletic ability is closer to like the 80% version of Ryan Tannehill we're getting, which is like, you can get him to run for chunks of 10 yards at a time, but it's not a consistent threat that you're actually worried about. And then the other thing I think with Levis is, you know, you kind of mentioned it,
Starting point is 00:41:02 like the accuracy to me is just it's not there. And like that's true of Richardson, too. But I just think with Levis, like so much of it is at least with Richardson, he's a one year starter. He's a lot younger. I can a little bit more convince myself like, OK, we can kind of figure this out. Whereas with Levis at Kentucky, even his previous season, his junior year, it was an incredibly well-ran offense under Liam Cohen. They had talented players. They had Wandale Robinson. They had a really good offensive line. They had really good running back talent. It was a very good ecosystem for him to produce, and he did an okay job at that. But I just felt like, especially in the 1-10 area, he sprayed a lot. His footwork is horrendous I think uh he really lets it get away
Starting point is 00:41:46 from himself and he plays with a really tight base and I think that hurts him a lot and then in terms of you know the like 10 to 20 yard area he has some awesome flashes like he'll throw a backside dig or he'll like rip a post and you're like okay I kind of see it but getting him to like process and trigger that I think for a guy who's coming into the NFL like 24 years old you would have like you would like it to be more consistent and that's kind of my thing with him is like if if he was going to process at that level I feel like you'd have seen it by 24 years old by now and it just it's he's not the dumbest guy or anything but like I would want a guy who it seems like he could be NFL ready right away and I'm not sure he's there
Starting point is 00:42:22 and when I watched him and it was only a couple of games, because this is my history of watching college football is if my wife's not calling the game, I'm usually not paying that close attention. Uh, but I did see a couple of Will Levis games paying half attention and it, it just didn't jump out to me. Like I, if you, you would have to tell me, you didn't have to tell me anthony richardson was a prospect i saw his first game against utah and he made three of the most absurd plays that i've ever seen a college football quarterback make it went like okay i think i see something that's the top 10 pick right i i am no scouting genius i just saw amazing stuff
Starting point is 00:42:59 the same with patrick mahomes when you watched. You saw him in college make 13 amazing plays a game. There just wasn't anything wow-worthy from Will Levis. And if you're going to win a Super Bowl that's driven by your quarterback, you probably need some wow stuff. I've noticed that from all of football history. You usually need some wow stuff. And the other three quarterbacks, whatever you want to say about them, they just have way more of that, right?
Starting point is 00:43:24 I think Bryce Young is too small, but like he has that. Wow. Like you watch him and you're like, OK, this dude is very clearly good at the position. CJ Stroud, especially towards the end of this season, like against Michigan and Georgia, was like, OK, this dude clearly is a ballplayer. Anthony Richardson all season just made plays that were different where you just knew that that was a different caliber of guy. Will Levis, you watch it and it's like, you're like Carson Wentz or Ryan Tannehill or something. Carson Wentz is pretty good. I mean, that's an NFL quarterback, right? But it's not moving the needle. It's not really doing a whole lot for you as a franchise. I like that comp, though. Yeah, I mean, he feels like the version of Carson Wentz that doesn't have his legs anymore.
Starting point is 00:44:01 That's kind of what I kind of get from him. So why do you think that he's put there? Is it just because, and this does happen often when someone comes out of their junior year, uh, everyone decides you're a top pick and then you just stay there regardless of what it looked like in that previous season. But I also don't want to overreact because Justin Herbert also kind of had that too. Oh, this guy's going to be the topic, but a counter example might be like Sam Howell where, Oh, he's going to be this top draft pick. And then the league just never believed it. And I am less confident than ever in the mock drafters in knowing who's actually going to
Starting point is 00:44:40 be there. So we all decide because a bunch of people who are guessing said something. And then last year was a good reminder that it's just guessing. And so I'm not really sold that Will Levis goes as high as the expectation. Yeah. I'm, I really don't know if he goes top five just because I think when you have a guy like Stroud, a guy like Anthony Richardson, and somebody might still pull the trigger on, on Bryce Young, even, even though he's small. It just seems like there's too many other options to take a guy like Will Levis. But I do think the NFL still really likes him because, one, the arm talent. I mean, he does have an awesome arm. Anthony Richardson's is better, but Levis, he's going to be able to
Starting point is 00:45:20 make every throw and stuff. And then I also think what NFL teams probably love about him is he is very tough. He is a tough dude. He will take hits. He will stand in there, throw a backside dig and get his chin strap ripped off. Like he's very much as willing to be like a tough NFL quarterback. And I do think that matters. It just feels a little bit like teams, I think, see an idea of a franchise quarterback, but it's not actually fleshed out, but they're willing to see what's going to happen anyway. Well, because if he's even good, you can win with that as a rookie quarterback contract.
Starting point is 00:45:54 If he is Ryan Tannehill, you can win with that on a rookie contract. Absolutely. I mean, even Tennessee, when they first got Ryan Tannehill, he was not expensive and they won a lot of games by building a great team around him. And I remember talking to a scout here on the show, Jim Moniz, who had been a scout and ended up the player personnel and then was doing media and some XFL stuff, whatever. But I asked him, like, how do you how did you scout quarterbacks?
Starting point is 00:46:17 Like, what was your big thing? And of course, there's all the technical stuff, the throwing motion and whatever else he's like ultimately what it usually comes down to if you check those boxes is toughness and how you lead and how you deal with a lot of things around you so that toughness to will levis kind of evens it out if he were to drop into the vikings ballpark would that be worth it where they're drafting i mean so i have uh i have a 7.6 grade on our Bleacher Report scale, which is like basically a mid to low second round pick. But when it comes to the draft, you kind of do have to give them like the half round bump because they're a quarterback that play the most important position. If you can get a cheap one, it does a whole lot for your franchise. I think where the Vikings are picking, it's probably fine to take the gamble at that point. I don't know if I would be too excited, but it's like if you give him a year, all that jazz, like maybe you can get something. And I do think that the way they run their offense actually does fit what he wants to do, because it's pretty similar to what he did at Kentucky.
Starting point is 00:47:19 That Shanahan-esque type of system like that, that's very much much what he did especially his junior season under Liam Cohen um his senior year was more of like not a real version of that offense um but but I do think it makes a lot of sense for him so I think I you could sell yourself on it I wouldn't be too excited but like if that's their only option left and they really wanted to get a plan in place for Kirk Cousins they don't want to wait for next year and they probably don't think they're going to be bad enough to get Drake May or Caleb for Kirk Cousins. They don't want to wait for next year, and they probably don't think they're going to be bad enough to get Drake May or Caleb Williams next year. I kind of get making the move now. And if they stay with Cousins, then they probably won't be.
Starting point is 00:47:54 I mean, your floor, you already know what it is. The guy's never won fewer than seven games. Exactly. So you're going to win at least seven, probably maybe more than that, depending on how the schedule plays out. And you'll be talking about this the same way next year if your plan is to move on from cousins is how how are we going to get one and then you're pressed like you have to do it next right right and then everyone knows
Starting point is 00:48:14 that so if you're trying to trade up for one they're like it seems like you guys really need a quarterback whereas this year it might be not the case that teams would be a little more willing to deal but i also think that there's so many desperate teams at the top of the draft that they'll probably take all these guys in the top 10 and they'll just be gone anyway. And the Vikings will never get that chance. I don't know if through a Vikings lens, if Stroud and young are worth talking about, because it just seems like they're going to go with the very, very top.
Starting point is 00:48:41 I like Stroud more than young. And I don't know if it's entirely based on just the size, although the skinniness is a problem because you just get beat up in the NFL. But the way Stroud played in his last couple of games, there was a playmaking element to him, and he can just throw the football. Like, what this often comes down to is,
Starting point is 00:49:00 can this dude throw the football like a maniac, like a complete sociopath, which is like Joe Burrow. It's kind of the same thing. It was like, well, is Joe Burrow, you know, was it a product of this? Like, did you see the throws? Yes. That's how I feel about C.J. Stroud. Did you see the throws?
Starting point is 00:49:14 The thing with C.J. Stroud is I think, especially compared to every other quarterback in this class, maybe with the exception of Young, is like when he throws, it just seems easy. You know what I mean? Like, it just seems like this is a very natural thing for him to be as good as he is. And like, uh, Richardson and Levis have stronger arms. Like they have that S tier, like, you know, throw it through a keyhole type of arm if they really want to. Um, but Stroud just, he has like an a level arm and then the accuracy is just so
Starting point is 00:49:40 different. Like the way that he will place a comeback on the sideline, the way that he will understand how to throw like an overriding between zones, the way that he knows how to like keep guys away from getting hit, you know, like hide them, basically keep the ball away from a safety or all that jazz. Like he's just a very conscious player in terms of where he wants to put the ball. And I think that kind of speaks to how smart he is as a player and how developed he is at this stage.
Starting point is 00:50:03 And so you have all of that. You have one thing I actually came to really appreciate about CJ Stroud was when I watched him the first couple of games. And even last year, I was like, his pocket presence was just not doing it for me at first. But the more I watched him, especially over the back half of this year, I was like, OK, he's really getting better at understanding how to play with bodies around him, how to move his body, you know, how to really keep himself clean to get throws off. And I think that development is really a skill that you really need to have in the NFL, which is, you know, it's again, why it's Richardson kind of has that to him
Starting point is 00:50:31 too. And it's why I really like both of those two at the top. So I think when you combine his arm talent, you combine some of the development he showed in those areas on top of him also being a pretty good athlete, you know, he's not going to be a design runner really, but he's going to be a guy who can get outside the pocket and make some plays you have all that and then the playmaking he made in the georgia game he just very much feels like safe is always a bad word but like if there is one guy i just feel like i'm not panicking when i take him he's the guy in this class and when you talk about the toughness element you go up against georgia they win 62 to 7 or whatever the next week like yeah you got to be pretty tough to go up against them i they win 62 to seven or whatever the next week. Like, yeah, you gotta be pretty tough to go up against them. I just having watched and covered enough games of
Starting point is 00:51:10 Rogers and drew breeze playing against the Vikings anticipation and throwing is really a crazy thing when guys don't have it and they need to see someone be open before they throw it. It's so much harder in the NFL and Stroud will throw it way before the guy is open and and i know that that's like an old kind of thing but it's always there you know who had this always was gino smith and then it just sort of like oh well he kind of got it and got an opportunity and then you finally saw it but i remember that when that draft happened that was the big thing that he was known for is he could just anticipate throwing there's not many people in general who can ever do this throw it to where someone isn't and where they're
Starting point is 00:51:50 going to be and cj stroud to me has that more than bryce young uh but bryce young is a he is just a barrel of fun and he is so much so much fun to watch have you seen the he's like steph curry come on if we're making ridiculous comparisons because it's draft season, that's fun. At least once a year we do a show comparing like quarterbacks to inanimate objects. So you might as well call him Steph Curry. I mean, I guess, uh, I mean, I'm not actually too much of a basketball guy. I mean, I know who Steph Curry is, but I know Steph Curry, but, uh, you live in California. I don't know if I could come up with a different wacky basketball. But I mean, Young is fun.
Starting point is 00:52:27 It's just my thing with Young is like he's very fun. He's he very clearly has that like playmaker it factor to him. I think his arm is actually it's not great, but like he he will be able to make, I think, most NFL throws. It's just like we have to be real about how a guy that size. And it's like we've seen a couple of short guys work out. You know, we've seen Russell Wilson was obviously good for like a decade. Kyler Murray has played at an NF or at an MVP level, like when he's really, when he's really going, but like Russell Wilson was a lot thicker. Even Kyler Murray was a lot thicker and
Starting point is 00:52:59 he's having a lot of injury issues. Like he gets banged up at the, at the back half of basically every season at this point. And I think Bryce Young, not only is he as short as those guys, he's going to be, he probably is playing at least 10 to 15 pounds lighter than those guys. I don't know what he's going to weigh in this week, but he very clearly is playing at like 185, 190. That just is, it's very scary. And it's not, you know, I think whenever I bring that up, people go, oh, well that means you think he's just, you know, one hit is going to snap him. And it's like, that's not really that it's more the Kyler Murray thing where it's just after 10 games of getting hit and getting hit and getting hit, like it's going to wear on you. And when you have that over four or five years, it's like,
Starting point is 00:53:35 that's, that's the thing with young is like, I think he could actually be a good player out of the gate for a rookie contract, but can he sustain this for eight years? I just, I have a really hard time seeing that. And I remember also because, of course, now everyone is Mahomes. So talk about it's it's less ridiculous to compare him to an inanimate object than compare anyone to Mahomes pretty much ever coming out. But I remember looking at this stat. Maybe it was a PFF stat that 65 percent ofrick mahomes's passes are just regular nfl quarterback
Starting point is 00:54:06 passes they're not scrambles they're not making crazy plays and as fun as the crazy plays can be and we want to see greatness of course a lot of it is just standing in the pocket and making throws and delivering the football and playing point guard and i'm not sure with guys that are on the shorter side how easy that is to do because even russell wilson and kyler murray cannot do that in the same way that even josh allen can if asked to do it or patrick mahomes homes like at least six six two and a half six three like the guys in front of you are six five yes it is it is a very hard thing to do and i think i would have stroud ahead of him i would have probably stroud and richardson
Starting point is 00:54:45 and then young is that how your order works that is exactly how i have it i have um yeah stroud richardson young and then a gap and then levis that's pretty much how i have it and like i mean like you said about height though like as much as we've seen a couple of guys overcome it like height does inform play style they haven't these guys that are short like russell wilson and kyle and marie they haven't overcome the problem of not being able to see from the pocket. They're just so good outside of the pocket for the most part and throwing outside the numbers that they've kind of made it work for themselves. The thing with Bryce Young, that kind of scares me a little bit is like, I don't think his arm is bad and I don't think he's a bad athlete,
Starting point is 00:55:19 but he's not the level of athlete that Kyler Murray is. Kyler Murray can legitimately be part of your running game. I don't think Bryce Young is ever going to be that. And he doesn't have the same like S tier, rip it like an outfielder type arm that Kyler Murray has, or Russell Wilson for that matter. Like he has like a B level arm. And like when you have to be this guy who's playing willy nilly outside the
Starting point is 00:55:38 pocket all the time, I would like for you to have some elite tools and he just, he's more good than great in that area. Yeah. I was going to say those other two guys legitimately were at were mlb players yes like they were throwers in other sports right kyler murray had the athleticism to play mlb shortstop and that's way different uh than talking about a good arm and murray also i don't think he ran at the combine but he probably would have run like a 4-3. Yes, he was a super athlete.
Starting point is 00:56:06 And is still just good. I have the same skepticism about him with that, even though I think his character is very, very high. And that can be an element that helps you overcome some shortcomings. That's why I think he could be good out of the gate, is because I do think he has some playmaking to him. He's talented enough, and he has that. I do think he really is a good dude who really understands the game. He really works. And it's just like, my thing is just like the durability over, over seven years or whatever. But I think because of the personality stuff, like, I think he could be good right away. And if you, you have the right team around him on a rookie
Starting point is 00:56:39 contract, like you probably could win a lot. It's just, like I said, I don't, I don't know how long you're going to get them for. Uh, last thing for you is I would like you to make, and I know you're a tape guy, so wild hot take predictions. And that's what I told you to bring. You said, do I need to bring anything? And I said, uh, yeah, the flame thrown. That's what you need to bring. Uh, I'd like your most interesting prediction for the QB market, because a lot's going to happen here we still don't know about Rodgers he keeps giving interviews but doesn't say what he's going to do he should just probably wait before giving interviews but who would I be to tell Aaron Rodgers how to live his life uh but you got Derek Carr out there you have trade possibilities kind of abound Ryan
Starting point is 00:57:21 Tannehill you mentioned what would be the most and Lamar Jackson, what would be the most interesting results from the kind of crazy quarterback market? I think for me, it's, it's with the Ravens. And two months ago when people were kind of selling the idea of like, Oh, the, the Ravens could just ship Lamar Jackson and then draft Anthony Richardson, and then kind of do this whole thing over again. And then you have another athletic quarterback, blah, blah, blah. I was was like that is very stupid because I think Lamar is incredible and I would still pay him um whatever he wants I would give Lamar Jackson a blank check I don't care if you can only play for three more years um but it doesn't seem like the Ravens want to do that and it seems like a very real possibility that they might just move on from Jackson and I
Starting point is 00:58:00 think if they do there's a very real possibility that they could be a team that kind of sneaks up to the draft boards. And, you know, I don't think people expect them right now to be a team that moves, but like the Lamar Jackson thing, I think is scaring me the longer it draws out. Because to me, it's like, it's not even just that like right now the negotiations feel weird. It's that the fact that it has even taken this long at all, like the, like he should have been paid two years ago. You know what I mean i think when you're an mvp level player like the fact that they've let it draw out this long really just seems to me like they're not going to pay him so i think the ravens could could do something very interesting a quarterback lamar jackson on the falcons that would be sick that would be insane yeah i've got weapons a running game an offensive line
Starting point is 00:58:43 and an offensive awesome play caller who is probably an elite run designer. Yes. In Arthur Smith. Absolutely. I like it. I would do it. OK, well, I guess for me, it would probably just be that Aaron Rodgers ends up with like the Raiders or something. That just feels wrong, doesn't it? It feels wrong. But I think he won't go to the Jets because of the Favre thing. It's just like he cares way too much about things that don't matter. I had not considered that at all, but that makes perfect sense. It definitely does. For him specifically, it makes perfect sense. I wish he would cleanse us of this conversation, though, and just make a decision.
Starting point is 00:59:18 So anyway, Derek Klassen, find your work. Oh, you're actually doing columns for New York Times now. I was, yeah. During the season, I was doing their Sunday live blog, which I've never done live work before, so it was a bit of a whirlwind, but it was fun. Yeah, that's really cool. And Bleacher Report is where your scouting stuff is. Football Outsiders as well. So a lot of great stuff. At QB Class, K-L-A-S- SS, one of the great Twitter handles
Starting point is 00:59:46 in existence. Really the only reason we know each other is I'm following someone whose name is that. So Derek, great to get together with you here in person. I'm sure we will zoom again and you will be forced back into dog, into dog puns. Of course. Great, great to meet you, man. Yeah. Great to meet you. Thanks for having me.

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