Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Did the odds go up of the Vikings drafting a QB after the GM and HC talked?

Episode Date: April 17, 2023

Matthew Coller answers Vikings fan questions, from whether they need to find a way to address the offensive line to the "Time Horizon" of the team to whether they can make the most of the QB rookie contract if they draft one this year and much more... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here with you. And as far as Vikings updates go, over the weekend we thought, hey, maybe there will be a Delvin Cook trade because Kweisi Adafomensa and Kevin O'Connell talked last Thursday and there wasn't a whole lot in the way of endorsements of the idea of Delvin Cook or Zedaria Smith returning. And it seems like those issues are bound to be resolved before the NFL draft. I guess they don't have to be, but it seems like they should be

if the Vikings want to try to get some additional draft capital to add to their five draft selections. But that was not resolved over the weekend. So instead, we watched the Minnesota Timberwolves, the playoffs, and you know what? It went a lot like it often goes for other Minnesota sports teams, the playoffs. What I mean is not good. So we'll see how the rest of that series goes. Sorry to everyone for the Sunday that they had the twins losing to the Yankees, getting shut out and the Wolves. And you didn't even have any exciting Vikings news to be paired with that.

So my apologies. But what we do have is lots of interesting Vikings questions to get to. So we are going to dive right into those. And also make sure you check out, if you missed it, our conversation with Andrew Kramer. It's on the podcast feed if you're watching on YouTube this one did not make to YouTube so go back on the podcast feed subscribe there make sure you catch all the episodes and my breakdown of Kweisi Daffomensa and Kevin O'Connell's press conference is there so check that out all right let's begin with Rich Rich says with the Vikings appearing to be bringing back the same offensive line,

shouldn't that be a big cause for concern, especially with them wanting to run the ball more? I actually didn't think that last year that the offensive line was really the trouble when it came to running the ball. And this is following the data and also just from going back and reviewing the tape myself. The Vikings graded pretty well by pro football focus, if not very well as an offensive line blocking unit. And I think if you look at the two guards specifically where their troubles were the most, it wasn't in run blocking. It was pass blocking.

It was a lot of confusion when it came to all the stunts and twists and blitzes that opposing teams were throwing at them and some of that is just inexperience from Ed Ingram on the right side and I don't know that Ezra Cleveland has ever really adapted to defenses throwing a lot of different looks at him on the left side and that's where it seemed like defenses had so much success against the Vikings but if you look at both players, and again, this is going about how they graded out from PFF, is both players had decent, if not good, run blocking. In fact, Ezra Cleveland was a very, very good run blocker for them last year. We know Garrett Bradbury excels in that area. Both Christian Derusaw and Brian O'Neill are excellent.

So I think that the failures of the running game really came down to the running back and the fact that Delvin Cook was not the same version of himself that he had been for so long in the past and I also think that maybe there was some schematics to it there was maybe some elements of not sticking to the run at some times where it was possibly going to break out but didn't and Kevin O'Connell wanted to lean into his passing game more often just being a former quarterback coach offensive coordinator former quarterback wanted to stick a lot with that passing game which I would agree with I mean he's talked a lot this offseason about wanting to

improve the running game yes that's true but I look, I mean, you had a pretty good offense by passing the ball. You need to improve the running. But let's not go crazy here and go kind of backwards from where they were before. I think what he's referring to is you have to take advantage when teams are giving you light boxes and playing safeties in the parking lot. You have to be able to force those safeties and linebackers to pay a little bit more attention, which they did not do with their running back last year. And when we go back to that stat about rushing yards over expected and

Delvin Cook having a huge drop off from where he was two years ago, it's kind of ironic because the offensive line I didn't think was run blocking as well two years ago, but the scheme was really excellent under the Kubiaks. And then Delvin Cook was a top-notch elite running back. I think that plays into it. But that's not really your bigger question. Your bigger question is, shouldn't it be a bigger concern? Because of course, they were among the tops in the league at giving up sacks. Both the right and the left guard were at the top of the NFL in pressures allowed last year. And once again, even despite having two elite tackles, they just barely cracked by the PFF rankings in the top 20 of offensive lines. The issue is who are you changing on the offensive line, right? Go across the line.

You're obviously not making a change at the tackles. They decided to bring back Garrett Bradbury, which made sense on a lot of levels because he had his best season. Are you taking out the guy you drafted in the second round last year in Ed Ingram at right guard position? Probably not. Ezra Cleveland is in the final year of his contract and is a veteran starter at this point. Are you trying to replace him? Now, if they had $50 million in cap space,

maybe they would have considered finding somebody new at those positions that were better pass blockers, but there's really no options. I mean, could you draft someone in the first round? Yes, but that would seem kind of ludicrous, right? After spending as much as they've spent on the offensive line, it's one of the great failures of this team is to have spent two firsts, two seconds, three seconds actually on the offensive line and two firsts and have it still not be good. I mean, that really kind of speaks to a theory that i've had for a while about guards specifically and there are some high-end guards who have been drafted high so make no mistake that that does happen and the same with centers but i think with those

positions you kind of want to look to free agency more than you want to spend those high draft picks but with tackles you are not going to find too many tackles on the free agent market. You have to draft them. You have to extend them, but there are always guards becoming free agents around the league, but you can't afford them if you don't have any cap space. So I don't think that they're going to have any opportunity to address the offensive line in the draft or in what's remaining in free agency because they just have so many other needs and also they're going to give their guy at right guard another chance they're not going to change out the center after bringing him back in free agency and i don't see them changing out ezra

cleveland either so the offensive line kind of is what it is for the next year and look there's always a possibility that it's much better because oftentimes rookies on the offensive line really struggle. And so what happened to Ed Ingram, though it was extreme because teams really went after him, usually it's pretty rocky. And then we see sometimes players either develop out of that and become very good, or they don't't and they end up being a bust but I think it's very hard to judge any offensive lineman based on their rookie year now with Ezra Cleveland you're starting to get to the area as a pass blocker where you're much

less confident than he's going to have big growth Garrett Bradbury did last year sometimes it does take over multiple seasons but if that ends up being the only weakness, I think you can survive it. If you have two weaknesses on the offensive line, it's pretty tough, but there's really no route for them to improve because if you spent the number 23 pick on an offensive lineman, I think people would lose their minds. If you spend it on a third rounder, it's unlikely that you get a very good starter right away. And even then we'll still be looking at other positions saying wait a minute a third rounder can be a starter and you

need corners wide receivers and there's lots of other things that they need pass rushers so the key positions are all kind of up there uh if we're ranking all the spots that they need guard would be kind of way down on the list so yes your concern is right but there is no real answer for it as of right now this one comes from Kyle what am I missing why isn't Smith Najigba being rated more highly by draft analysts so I feel like this has sort of changed in the last couple of weeks, the momentum building up to the draft that what I've seen from a lot of analysts is they're saying that Smith Najigba could be the only first round pick wide receiver, which would be really interesting. I kind of am not buying that just because of the positional value and the surplus value, what it costs to get a number two

wide receiver. We've talked about that quite a bit on the show here. But, you know, Smith Najigba is a really interesting one because in 2021, even with other great wide receivers on his team, the guy still put up 1,500 yards receiving. And right now, by the way, the mock draft database has him as a top 15 pick. So it seems that the draft analysts have kind of caught on to this momentum and he's been pushed to the top. And there are some outside opinions that don't have him as maybe the number one guy off the board, but I don't think he's

being considered one of those elite, elite prospects because he doesn't have like the raw physical tools that would put you up there. So, you know, he's got good speed, but it's not unbelievable speed. Now, is that right? Historically, the answer is kind of no, because his quickness is really good. And the 40-yard dash has been wildly overrated. And Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points has looked at this before, that the 40-yard dash has really influenced the way that teams draft receivers,

and yet it hasn't really influenced whether they're successful or not. That that's been much more correlated to things like the quickness, the three-cone, and so forth. And that's where Smith Najigba is very, very good. There's also the part about him being a slot receiver. But I think just on its face, we can kind of dismiss that because Justin Jefferson, and I don't think Jefferson is an outlier in this. I think a lot of wide receivers will get pegged as just a slot guy,

and yet they'll come to the NFL. And look, there is no just a slot guy in today's NFL. Receivers are being moved around all the time. There's tons of motions. There's these splits where they condense everybody. So there's nobody outside the numbers. And everyone is basically a slot receiver because one of the main goals is not to let corners be able to line up and press coverage

and battle against your guy and get an advantage off the line of scrimmage or to use the sideline as a helper. So if that is an issue for Smith Najigba getting off the line of scrimmage, there are lots of ways to work around that. I don't think just a slot guy is the insult that it used to be. I also think sometimes if you're playing with Chris Alave and Garrett Wilson, two star NFL receivers, that someone's got to be the slot guy. Those guys are going to play on the outside. That was him.

So I think he's a very good prospect, but that lack of unbelievable tools that he's not going to run a 4-3, he doesn't have this insane jumping ability, contested catch ability. He's more of just a technician which i think is really good and i think the nfl over the last few years has kind of leaned too much into those oh we need the freak athlete as opposed to the technical receivers and maybe that's the reason sometimes guys have dropped or not been the top receiver taken, even if they turn out to be really good, is that sometimes teams over-focus on what somebody can't do as opposed to what they can, which I thought was an interesting comment from the Vikings brass the other day. That's a lot of what they were talking about, is we're going to focus on what a prospect can do and how that fits with what we do offensively. And look, if the Vikings get a

chance to draft Jackson Smith Najigba, that would be a home run for them, assuming that they're not doing the quarterback thing. I don't know if they will or not, but if they're looking for a wide receiver in the first round, if he were to drop, I think that's like an easy pick where you pair him. And that's the thing with the Vikings and receiver is that you can make a lot better case when you're paired with Justin Jefferson. It's a very favorable situation. So if you're a route technician, if you get off the line of scrimmage, well, if you beat man coverage, or if you understand the game, if you do something really well above average,

they could probably maximize that with Justin Jefferson taking on the entire load. Next question comes from the Exile Geordies. I hope that's not anything weird. Let's see. Can you talk me into the Vikings actually taking advantage of the rookie scale QB? So they do have this problem that if they draft a quarterback this year, that next year, assuming Kirk Cousins leaves, that he will take that $28 million dead cap hit. And then it sort of eliminates one year of them taking advantage of the rookie quarterback scale. That's correct. So that would actually make two years then. So like this year, they would be developing, let's just say it's Hendon Hooker. So they would be developing

Hendon Hooker behind Kirk Cousins for a year. And then they wouldn't have that advantage for next year either because of the $28 million in dead cap after that now that's a hard discussion to have for us sitting here before the 2023 draft is like hey everybody just wait until the 2025 offseason a meteor could strike earth before the 2025 offseason who wants to wait that long for that and that's why we did question that restructure and could you have found a better way to create some cap space and just let that contract play out, take a much smaller dead cap hit than 28 million if Kirk Cousins leaves in free agency. That's why we questioned the idea of doing this restructure now. Now, maybe they would say, look, we just didn't have that many options. We had to create some cap space right away.

And so it's the only thing we could really do in that situation. And they might be right. I mean, I don't know every inside and out detail of their plan with the salary cap or all of the options. I mean, we can kind of put together a really good guess based on over the cap dot com. But we don't have every bit of that information. So maybe they had to do it that way, but it does take away from that potential rookie quarterback scale advantage right away. Now, I would also say that year three of a rookie quarterback is one of the places you kind of look for when they take big jumps, right? Like Jalen hurts,

Josh Allen, a lot of them, not just guys who were considered not great passers coming out of college. But if you draft the fifth best prospect, you can guess that there's going to be some development over a couple of years. So you will get to a place eventually. Also, when it comes to, you know, the Harrison Smiths of the world, like the older players on the roster who are expensive eventually we're going to be talking about those guys not being here either and opening up some space and at the same time here comes Justin Jefferson's extension here comes Christian Derisaw's but you can pay those players and be okay by the salary cap if you're not paying a quarterback 25 to 35 million or in the future it

would be 45 to 50 million and so forth and the fact that they didn't extend kirk means eventually that will happen there's also the scenario as well where they don't draft a quarterback this year and they draft him in 2024. in fact i still think that that's a very likely scenario that plays out. So that would mean going into year two of your next quarterback, you get to use this big advantage. And yes, they have created some void years. They've kicked some money down the road. We don't like that here on the show. Not a big fan of it, unless you are a Super Bowl contender, which at this point is hard to make an argument for the Vikings. The odds makers don't like that argument for the Vikings, so we're not going to

make it unless something major changes. But if you're looking at how this could sort of play out, those void years will sort of be canceled out by how big that advantage is eventually. Again, not saying that they're good, but they're not for like Marcus Davenport or Byron Murphy. They're not a travesty. They're not going to destroy your salary cap. They're just going to make it a little more difficult. Maybe one player's worth of money will be added up at that point. But that would be a reason to put all of that $28 million

into dead cap with Kirk for one year is that after that you're completely rid of it. So if your plan is play it out with Kirk this year, draft a quarterback next year, develop him for his first season, and then go all in to try to win the Superbowl in 25, well, you can see how that plays out. So yeah, I mean, I think that I can talk you into this working. It's just that if they were going to draft quarterback this year and hope for that huge spending spree next year, they kind of eliminated it with the way that they restructured Kirk Cousins' contract.

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If you listen to that, because I had a detail wrong on this and the detail was I misunderstood a bonus situation for Kirk cousins. At least this is how I've kind of got it in my head now that the bonus was this year and not next year that would kick in. So they don't have to cut him before the certain date. It's just let him hit free agency. Now, this is just, it's, it can be very confusing with when everything has to play out because over the cap.com is our only option. And look, NFL, what is it? What is the secret? What's the big secret? Uh, I love Jason Fitzgerald and over the cap.com. And he's done an unbelievable job. And NFL teams will tell you that his stuff is accurate. So he's very, very good. But I don't understand why we have some things in shrouded in secrecy when it comes to the salary caps. Like everybody knows anyway, at this point, that aside, it does appear to be a two option thing though with Kirk Cousins. Yes. It's either extend his contract and then the cap hits

get it spread out over years, or he goes in free agency and there's really nothing else to it. And also another thing that has come up and I had to check on this as well, it made sense that they would get compensatory picks for it. But Andrew Kramer and I talked about this the other day, that because of the void years, and this is like sometimes you have to take some sort of like salary cap class to understand all these things. So, but yeah, because of the void years, apparently they would not get compensatory pick if he leaves. And there you go so yeah it does appear that there are only those two options you cut him take that big cap hit against or you extend him but boy does it seem like the extension's not coming it really seems like they hit an impasse and everybody's comfortable uh the way that they talked the

other day at the press conference they seemed very comfortable talking about plans and secondary plans and the types of quarterbacks they're looking at and the ideal situation that stuck out to me that both Kwesi Adafo Mensah and Kevin O'Connell both called it ideal to have someone developing behind Kirk Cousins for a year which you know just kind of makes your ears perk up that they both use that same language. And also there was a little, if you want to go really read between the lines,

when I was looking back at Kevin O'Connell's comments, one of the things he said was that, you know, you're looking for people who can see the field, whether it's a spread offense or a pro style. And it was like, wait, spread offense. It's kind of what we've been talking about with Hendon Hooker quite a bit, isn't it? Hmm. Okay.

I try not to go too deep into pre-draft press conferences because they're not always truthful, but very interesting to hear them talk that way about potentially drafting a quarterback. But nobody sounds like they're on the cusp of an extension at any point with Kirk Cousins. Now, maybe if he went completely nuts next year and they won 13 games again, and then they went, you know, kind of crawling back to him and said, Kirk, you're the only quarterback we could ever have. But I'm not sure that's the most likely scenario. Also, Kirk would say, Hey, you didn't believe in me before. There's no reason to believe in me now. Kind of a Washington situation. That's what we've actually reached. It's like history repeating itself with Kirk Cousins. And it seems that the two sides have

just said, hey, you want a long extension? We don't want to give you one. Hey, we want a long extension. We think we've earned it. And if you're not going to give us one we'll hit free agency and that's how it's going to go again this 28 million dollars in dead cap is just such a tough thing to work around for them next year and i know i've heard the argument oh well they still have x amount of cap space projected but the you know they only have so many players under contract and there you know are other teams who are going into free agency each year with opportunities to spend big to revamp their teams. And the Vikings have not been that team since Kirk Cousins got here. So that advantage, it will come eventually down the road if they don't extend Kirk, but there aren't like any other real tricks that they can use to try to work around this.

It kind of is what it is. All right. Next question here comes from Dan. Do you think the emergence of NILs long-term will reduce the number of busts in the first round in the future? No, I don't. But it's an interesting thought because I think what you're getting at here is that players will stay in college longer,

so they will be more experienced. They will have more look at them and then they will have a better sample size. And actually, your logic is not bad. I think that's actually pretty good logic because the older, the more that a guy plays, the more you're going to understand what he is in the NFL, I think, right? This might be, well, I don't know. Like, is the NFL, it's a great question to research. Is the NFL actually better at identifying older players

as being first round picks or not when they get bigger sample sizes? Or does it remain just as random if not? I mean, also too, when you're talking about players who are coming out earlier, they are usually the more talented players. That's not always the case, but a lot of times somebody's not coming out. If they're going to be a fifth round draft pick, they're usually coming out if they're going to be a first round pick. But to your point though, if players were coming out because they were desperate for the money, like, oh man, I got to be a fifth round pick because even a fifth round pick gets me like 700 K And that's going to be huge for me and huge for my

family. And I can't even afford lunch or whatever. Now, if you're a star or a really good player at a certain university, you get in with the collective, the NILs, they're going to get some money in your pocket. And you can say, you know what, actually I'm good. I can wait another year before I come out. Now, as far as the first round, I don't know, because if you're going to be a first round pick, there ain't no level of NIL that matches at least at the moment. And maybe if you go to Bama, for most players, there's not really a level that's going to guarantee you the amount you're going to get for being a top 15 pick. Not at this moment.

College football is big. The NFL's got way more money. The worst franchise is selling for six bill. It's crazy out there. So if you're going to be a first round pick, you're just leaving. You're going to be a first round pick. But I do think that the accuracy in the middle and late rounds might be better. How much better, how much of a difference that makes, I'm not sure. I think it's altogether good if players

can stay in college longer. Not because I don't want them to come to the NFL, but because the NFL is very hard. I don't know how many players the Vikings have drafted over the years where when you look at their college resume, you're like, wow, this this guy's amazing. I mean, this many catches or this many awards or whatever else. And they're a fifth round draft pick and they don't make it three years in the league. They get cut. It happens all the time. And, you know, they get injuries or whatever else. It's so much more of a violent game in the NFL or they just can't keep up or it's just not for them with the lifestyle,

whatever it is. And so if they can stay in college longer and have money in their pocket and develop more as players or even as people and know what they want in the world or whatever, or like maybe you're implying show that they're not really prospects because there's a bigger sample size to say like, or, or like maybe you're implying show that they're not really prospects

because there's a bigger sample size to say like, nah, not really. But to get paid, to stay in college, to enjoy your college experience, to come out of the draft when you're more mature, you know, I think all of those things are generally good. And the NILs do that for college players. So will it reduce the amount of busts in the first? I don't think so, but maybe in the middle rounds it will. And I think overall, it's probably going to be better just for football in general and for a lot of these players. Because once you get to the pros, life is a lot harder, I think, than it is in college,

especially if you're a mid or late round pick where nobody is pumping you up at that point the minute you get to training camp all right this comes from joe i'm curious if you've watched any film on dorian thompson robinson and what are your thoughts he seems like he's a worth a flyer if you get him in the third round well yeah so here's the thing i think that if you go back and watch some highlight reels from Dorian Thompson Robinson, he's got some exciting plays and he's a very good athlete. I think that he could throw the ball pretty well and he can make some plays pretty well,

but I don't really see somebody who's got starter potential in the NFL. Like that can be, and I know there's always like the Chris Sims of the world who picks some random guy who's a mid rounder and says, that's my guy. Because if it works out, then he looks brilliant, but it's very Kellen Mondish to me.

I'm not saying they're the same guy. I'm saying that it feels like a player who is exciting enough in college that he could catch people's eyes. But when it comes to actually translating all that to the NFL speed, power, violence, the quick decision-making, the size of the guy actually matters in this case. If you're not a number one overall prospect like Bryce Young, how many guys have we seen that have been undersized who have succeeded in the NFL that have not been, what is it, Russell Wilson and nobody else? Dorian Thompson Robinson

is short and he's also very skinny. I just think it's going to be a rough ride for him to try to be a starter. So then what's the point? Are you looking for your future backup? Not really. Nick Mullins could be the backup for the Vikings for the next 12 years. Who cares? I mean, like, look, you want to have a great backup. We've been there before. Randall Cunningham, Case Keenum. But, you know, right now for the money, you have a baseline backup quarterback.

Are you really trying to like develop one? Do you see talent in Dorian Thompson Robinson that says future NFL starter, I have a really tough time with that. And if that's not what you're drafting for, then you shouldn't bother drafting him. You should get the Nick Mullins and the veteran backup quarterbacks. And look, if he turns out to be great for somebody else, okay, well, you'll take the one out of 50 for mid to late round draft picks. Like, well, someone's going to get the one out of 50. Someone will get that one. But how you pick out which guy that's going to be.

If we go back and look through the resumes of a lot of the mid round picks in the NFL in recent years, I mean, almost every one of them has some draft analyst saying, you know who to watch out for? It's this guy. It's like the Davis Webb or the Kyle Loretta. I mean, every single one of them has some sort of case. Ryan Finley was another one, had a good senior bowl. And I remember people talking about him and these guys might be good backup quarterbacks, but if you're not drafted in the first, in a world where everyone is so desperate, I think what we learned this last year, and it could be wrong. Look, if Desmond Ritter and Sam Howell are great, it could be wrong.

And maybe I'll have to change this take and say, Hey, the NFL can't even figure out who the top quarterback prospects are. But if you have played as much football as Dorian Thompson Robinson has, and the NFL has this massive sample on you and says, you know, it was probably a third round pick. That means your chances of becoming a quality starter are very, very low. So if they picked him as a developmental guy in like a fifth, I think that's okay. Do they have a fifth? There's so few picks.

But in the third, to me, that's a starting player. That's a starting receiver. That's a starting corner. That's a situational edge rusher. I don't know that you really want to spend a pick on somebody who at best is probably going to become a backup. And I know that that's cold water on the excitement. And one of the things that we always love with the draft is, Hey, what if this guy that nobody's really talking about can become this thing? But gosh, there's just so many ways that the NFL can figure out these days who the top picks are. It's not like you could just overlook somebody, especially if they went to UCLA.

So I'm very skeptical. I think he's a really fun player and seems like, and I watch a good amount of his games. I think he's a really good leader. He's got toughness. He's like a lot of things that could become an NFL quarterback for a long time. It's just as a starter, as a franchise quarterback. And also do we want the Vikings to take a half measure? I guess would be the question as well. Like why bother taking a half measure like a Kellen Mond, you really need to go all in and find your next guy. That's kind of how I look at it. All right. This one comes from Eric Vikes fan 28 says, Matt,

am I insane for starting to buy the Hendon hooker hype? I mean, if KOC and Casey think he's a first round quarterback, who are we to doubt? Yeah, this is the difficult thing in my mind that I have battled with this entire time over the Hendon Hooker thing, because history would tell us, and there's not a ton of history, there's not a ton of quarterbacks who've come out at 25 years old, but the history on those quarterbacks is not very good. A lot of them have just really struggled to develop after that age age when you get to your mid 20s how much ceiling is really going to be there so when you talk about a guy in his mid-20s as a developmental quarterback it's like wait a minute uh he's already older than a lot of your

team at that point a lot of players who have been in the league for a couple of years developing uh but i think on the other side of that argument if you're talking about a guy with great arm strength and a deep ball mobility, and here's the biggest thing that keeps popping to me. And I don't know that the truth behind all these things is always hard to know. So when you say, well, there's reports out there that say there's reports out there that say a lot of stuff, but a lot of the things that keep coming back to Hendon Hooker is the impression that he left with teams about his intelligence and about the way that he remembers the game and sees the game and I think that's a huge deal he's

got you know a toughness element to him he's got a leadership element to him that we saw at his time in Tennessee, taking a team that was pretty bad and turning it into a team that's pretty good. That's always a good sign for me. So just like every prospect that you talk about not being at the top, if they're a quarterback, you have to talk about what are their potential pitfalls? What would keep them from being a potentially very good quarterback? And with Hendon Hooker, those things are right there. He does not have the greatest pocket presence. The guy was really bad when he was under pressure in college, but he's a really good thrower of the ball, like downfield especially. And yet you could also come back and say, well, look, who's not good at throwing the wide open wide receivers. So maybe there's a little bit of like Tua in this conversation

of somebody who can operate and execute an offense if it's there for him, but is not going to be super crazy dynamic, even if he can run a little, that sounds a little bit like Desmond Ritter to me. And maybe he's a more accurate down the field kind of Desmond Ritter ish. But the whole thing with Ritter was like, oh, he's so good at executing like in the pocket and footwork and everything else like that, but was not a playmaker with his athleticism. So I don't know. There's a good case to question, like, can this guy really be your franchise quarterback? And when they were talking the other day, the thing that they kept coming back to, Kwesi and Kevin, was we all have to be on the same page. If you're talking about a 25-year-old dude coming off an ACL who has issues with getting

sacked, issues with making plays out of structure, is everybody going to be on the same page with that making him your guy? I mean, I'm making a comparison in an article to kind of like buying a house. Like the whole family has to agree they want to move into the house. And you know, you got to be really comfortable with, hey, you know, this door, it creaks when it opens. And this, you know, whatever issues come along with the house when you buy it, everybody's got to be okay that you can fix those or there's going to be a lot of finger point hey that was your guy that was not my pick that was who you wanted that's what you don't want that even though it makes a lot of sense to just pick one if he's

a first round prospect you really don't want that in your organization where you have head butting over whether somebody was the right pick or not uh this comes from d. I'm hearing more and more media members in the Vikings media universe use the term time horizon unironically. Can you explain the difference between timeline and time horizon? No, sir, I cannot. Does it make a difference? Look, I mean, so Kweisi came in and that was one of his first things to talk about. Kweisi Adafo Mensah, he comes in, he says, we kind of look at it in time horizons. Now, do I really know what that means? Like, kind of, I guess. I think of it as the same thing as timeline. And I think on the show, we've probably sort of flipped back and forth using both. I think we use timeline a little bit more seriously and time horizon a little more tongue in cheek when we're talking about it. Like, well, that's his his sort of Silicon Valley word that he likes to use for talking about the team's timeline. But, you know, I don't know. I don't think there's any real difference. I do think, though, that it's the most important discussion

in the sport. So this is like a thing we're going to talk about all the time is every team is working on timelines or time horizons of when you feel like you're going to be a mature enough team to compete for a Super Bowl. Now, if you are the Kansas City Chiefs, you are aware that you can rebuild some parts of your roster and win the Super Bowl, which is what they did last year. That's nuts. That is the rarest situation in football. That's if you have Tom Brady, if you have Joe Montana, if you have five quarterbacks

in history, Peyton Manning, where you can even be rebuilding at times and letting certain veteran guys go and yet still competing for Super Bowls. That's super rare. What everyone else is working on is what year or what do we have to do to get to a place where we should be a legitimate contender, not competing and hoping, which, hey, like 2017 was kind of a competing and hoping year when they went into it and they were one step away from the Super Bowl. So, you know, you shouldn't totally throw that out.

But like use Philadelphia as an example of a timeline and how important this is. In 2020, they go to the bottom. They move on from Carson Wentz after that, and they turn it over to Jalen Hurts. And I think that they still saw 2022 as a time where they could really legitimately compete, 2022, 2023. And because they overachieved in 2021, they went out and got a bunch of free agents. They made a huge trade to get A.J. Brown.

They pushed the chips to the middle of the table on Jalen Hurts, and they said, we can do it. We can win with this guy this year. Let's go. Let's put all of our assets into this year. And then they reached the Superbowl against the Kansas city chiefs. I think that's like the easiest way to frame it. But in a lot of times with your timeline or time horizon, you're talking about how do you escape? This has been the long Vikings question. How do you escape those years where

you're saying we can just be competitive to a year where you can be like a potential Super Bowl contender? And that ties into what we talked about to start the show, which was, hey, will they ever escape this trouble with the salary cap? And the answer is like, yeah, eventually, but it's not going to be this year and it's not going to be next year. So when can we talk about the Vikings as a potential Super Bowl contender? Everything works out in my mind. And that's not to say that like next year is a wash or something. There's no guarantee that the Lions win the NFC North or that Chicago is good or that the Packers are good. So the Vikings can host the home playoff game and have every chance in the world for somebody to tear a UCL in a playoff

game and win. So like, I don't want to count out the potential that they're competitive next year because last year we talked about like, well, you know, maybe nine, 10 wins and they won 13. So we never really know. But the point just being, if you were trying to lay out a timeline for the Vikings, you would do it kind of like, all right, so they draft a quarterback this or next year, and they've got these superstars fully in the middle of their prime, Derrissaw, O'Neal, Jefferson, right? Maybe you draft another one of those players, receiver, corner, whatever. Maybe somebody develops at Lewis Seen, Andrew Bo jr. So you've got these core players all in their primes. And then you go to the free agent market around your rookie quarterback and you go nuts and you go all in and you have the same thing happen. That's probably 2025.

And so I think that like, yeah, I mean, is there a difference between timelines and time horizons? No, but I don't think that like we're talking about different things here. We're talking about the most important thing for a front office to understand. So the fact that Kweisi is looking at things this way has always been a really good thing in my mind, because I feel like the minute that they signed Kirk Cousins with the Spielman Zimmer era, there was no such thing as a timeline. It was just like desperate flailing was what every off season was. So I think that a more planned out approach is probably a good idea. All right. From Todd, Quasey's comments about the number of picks last

year versus the size of last year's draft class was the definition of gaslighting and honestly insulting to the fans and media's intelligence. Okay, so yeah, Kweisi Adafo meant someone who's asked about not having the picks. He said, well, we had a lot of picks last year and we feel good about the draft class and how it's developing and so forth. And then he went on to name all the people who were drafted last year. So yeah, I mean, I guess I would answer that by saying like, okay, my friend Judd Zolgad has always had a way of looking at, he calls it sports line, where like, yeah, that's not how he's actually looking at it. Like Kwesi wants 10 more picks

in the draft. I guarantee you their scouting staff wants 10 more picks in the draft. I guarantee you their scouting staff wants 10 more picks in the draft. They are working 365 days a year or whatever all year long to get ready for five picks. And they'll probably get more by trading down, but that's gotta be, if you've got 12 players on your own draft board as a scout that you've been looking at, you're like, man, if we get any one of these guys, I'm going to be happy. Good chance you get none of your guys because they have hardly any picks. That's got to be frustrating. I'm sure as somebody who understands the salary cap, like Kwesi does, he knows that there's a massive advantage to drafting three or four players who become starters because you have their rookie contracts. It's not just the quarterback it works

for, it's the receiver, it's the left tackle, right? These key positions. So yeah, he gets that. But I don't think that it is gaslighting and insulting. I think it's just trying to put a positive spin on a situation you have really no control over. Like just, you can't, I mean, you can trade down that's the control you could trade some players and try to pick up some other picks which they probably will but you know i mean what what is he supposed to say like oh man i'm actually panicking i'm losing my mind i don't know what to do i'm up in the front office he was wearing like a thick jacket it was 80 degrees out like i'm cold the ac on too hot. I don't have any draft picks.

Like our pet's heads are falling off. Like what is he supposed to say? Right? I mean, I just, I don't know. I think that the better way to spin it is probably, let's not anybody forget the reason we don't have a second is because we have a great tight end. Let's just all remember that

when we talk about the draft picks. So I think that continuing to bring that up probably is a better maybe spin than saying like we drafted a lot of people last year because you'd prefer to draft a lot of people every year. But no, I don't feel that way. I don't feel like my intelligence was insulted. I just thought, yeah, this is typical. I mean, I think that, you know, this happens a lot with like, if you have a draft pick, a young player who's really struggling, you're not going to come out and be like, oh man, we just picked the worst guy. What you're going to say, which you might say that behind closed doors, what you're going to say is, hey, look, that guy's coming to work every day and he's improving. And we believe in him like that. Like, is that gaslighting? Is that lying? No, that's not lying. It's like trying

to put a good public face on something. So I, you know, I, I don't take it, uh, poorly. I just think like, let's not all forget TJ Hawkinson. Very good at football, good player to have on your football team, but that costs them a second round pick. That's why they don't have a lot of picks. This one comes from Thomas. I like Zay Flowers, but just watch his highlights and then watch Jalen Rager highlights. I think we have Flowers already. Do you think Rager with a year in the system could break out? I do not. No, I don't. I think Jalen Rager has had many years to break out and that breakout will not be coming. That doesn't mean he doesn't mean anything to the offense that he couldn't fit in a role of getting a handoff, getting a screen. I'm telling you, I think they should put him in the backfield sometimes. I'm just, you know, look, maybe I'm going back to that Cordero Patterson

well, but I think that he's a really good playmaker with the ball in his hands, but I don't think he's a detailed route runner. I don't think that he was on the same page with Kirk Cousins really at all. The best play that he made was just Cousins heaving the ball up when he shouldn't have even thrown it. So I think that getting him in the game, letting him touch the ball, letting him be the punt returner and fight with Brandon Powell to be the punt returner. That's a, that's a, that's the role. Like that's what Jalen Rager is going to be in the NFL. And by this point in someone's career, the breakout is, it's not coming.

I mean, we did this with Laquan Treadwell year after year. It was, is this Laquan Treadwell's year? He says he worked on his route running and it just, it, it's over. That doesn't mean he can't mean anything. It means that really they need a number two slash three, that they need someone who is an equal wide receiver or better to KJ Osborne. That if you have a group with Justin Jefferson, TJ Hawkinson, KJ Os and player X let's say it's a flowers and all of them are capable of getting open all of them are open capable of making big plays whoever your future quarterback is can throw it wherever he's supposed to throw it like think of the advantage of you can always throw it to where your reads take you and you don't have to force it to one guy because you

know everybody can fit in the role and everybody can make plays there's a huge advantage to that i don't think that looking at jalen regger highlights from college makes any difference at this point if that's what you're watching i don't know where the highlights are from the nfl uh so i i think that you know with zay flowers there's some risks there uh The undersized thing matters a lot to me. Does he have to be a slot receiver? That seems to be said about half the class. They have to be slot receivers.

When it pertains to size, I'm very sketch on whether that's a good idea or not. But I think that drafting a receiver is a really good idea to try to create this Eagles-like, this 49ers-like, unbelievable group around your future quarterback and just go from there. And you know, that's another reason to maybe get a Justin Jefferson extension sign, which we haven't heard anything about. So, you know, I that's, that's how I look at that. I, I think if you're hoping and praying for a jump from a player that's had years to do it you should just draft somebody else. And if that guy jump from a player that's had years to do it uh you should just draft somebody else and if that guy surprises you then that's great uh on to jonathan here what are the

odds the vikings drafting a quarterback in 2023 there appears to be a lot of steam regarding drafting a developmental quarterback so uh do you mean drafting him the first drafting or drafting him at any point uh because i i think i i've probably had different answers every time we talk about it for the percentage chance it could actually happen i think i left the uh press conference the other day feeling like there was more of a chance that it could happen than before and maybe some of that is subterfuge i don't know but it's so obvious with the restructure, the fact that they haven't had further contract extension talks, which they could if they wanted to, but we have heard no steam about that whatsoever. It seems like the Kirk Cousins era is legitimately coming to an end. So that means

it's either this year or next year. And I guess I would put the hooker thing of being real is like 25 to 40% that they actually do it. If he's there, maybe teams like him more and he's not actually there. I don't know, but seems like the back end of the first round, if he's getting picked, that's where he's going to go. So I would say that maybe like 25 to 40%, somewhere in that ballpark for drafting in the first round, if it's Hendon Hooker, if it's Will Levis, if those are the guys that end up there, I think it's decently likely that they would do that. But I don't think that's a lock that even if they're there, the Vikings will take them because like, again, we've kind of gone back to, I think it was significant that they really

emphasize, we all have to be on the same page, which maybe is something that they've been talking about in the front office. If we're not on the front, on the same page with the whole front office is doing this, we can't do it. And, uh, you know, that might not be the case next year either, but it's more forced next year than it is this year where you're not forced to do it. You're not in a position where you don't have a quarterback. As far as drafting a developmental one, I think that drafting a quarterback is something they'll want to do. That Kevin O'Connell has done so much work on this class that maybe it's like a Clayton Toon or a Jake Hayner or somebody like that, that they would want to take in the later rounds i don't know if it's a good idea probably not but

i think that maybe i would push that up to like 50 or 60 there's so few draft picks that maybe it's not a great idea to spend a later pick but also anything past the third is all just rolling the dice anyway so i don't know i mean personally I think the later rounds have not gotten them a lot of certain positions. Hasn't gotten a lot as far as pass rushers. Hasn't gotten a lot in terms of linebackers. So, you know, a receiver though, you've gotten KJ Osborne out of that recently. Stephon Diggs, of course. A lot of busts as well.

I mean, everyone's going to have mostly busts when it comes to later round picks. So I've never really seen the purpose of the developmental quarterback, but if you're talking about in terms of developmental as sit behind Kirk for a year, then I would say we're getting toward like maybe 50, 50 chance as much steam is growing from Hendon hooker, but I'm not entirely sure that I fully buy it just yet. All right. This from Tony, we'll do this one and one more. Is there a position that favors being short? It seems like everybody, every good draft prospect needs to be tall or being taller is an advantage. Yeah. Being taller is an advantage. I mean, what like offensive line, pretty good to have giant wingspan to keep defenders away.

Defensive line, pretty good to have a giant wingspan to keep offensive linemen away from you and create moves and things like that. Wide receivers, go up and get it with your long arms and your hands. Quarterback, seeing over the offensive line. Cornerback, use the long arms to keep the receivers at bay. You can make plays on the ball from farther out. Maybe safety. I don't know that it makes on the ball from farther out. Maybe safety. I don't know that it makes any difference what height you are as a safety.

We've seen some pretty good short safeties that have been good. I mean, maybe having long arms helps a little for breaking up passes, but it's such like an intuitive position, instinctual position that I don't know that height makes a huge difference there. Running back, I think you can be short-ish I don't think it helps to be super tall as a running back probably like 5'10 to 6'1 is really that range for a running back I don't think like Derrick Henry's just such a freak but aside from Derrick Henry how many 6'4 running backs are there but yeah I mean being taller it's kind of like

basketball right like i mean any sport a baseball i guess it doesn't matter but even then if you're a pitcher uh you don't see too many 510 pitchers most of them are like 6-6 uh i don't know like arm angles and how much effort it takes to throw the ball 97 miles an hour like yeah i mean the short people in society kind of got screwed by all sports uh unless you're Spud Webb or Darren Sproles. Then it worked out fine for you, but there isn't really. And that's the tough thing about this class is that there are, even in the running back position, in the middle rounds,

there's a bunch of dudes who are undersized. The Deuce Vaughn, what is the guy from East Carolina? Mitchell, I think his name is. Like there's a number of guys who are very exciting prospects that when you watch them in college football, you're like, whoa. But then when they get to the NFL and everybody's huge, it's a tough game. I mean, like is a is a tank Dell going to be able to separate from corners when he's five foot eight and 175 180 pounds at best and the corner is six foot tall and 210 pounds that's the guy you got to be and you're both the same speed that's pretty tough so yeah no i don't think that there's any i would say maybe guard

it's good to be stout like six two six three kind of get underneath pads of defensive ends and stuff like that uh but that's pretty much it linebacker short doesn't really make that big of a difference but still you look at fred warner he's like six four got super long pterodactyl arms yep it's a tall man's game sorry tony if you're short you're not gonna make the n NFL. Sorry. This one from TJ to finish us off here. Can you compare the hype of the wide receiver class in this year's draft to the hype in the QB class received last year? Will we get a similar result where three to five projected in the first, but only one goes there? Yeah, but I don't think they're all going to drop to the third. That the second round has been such a hot zone for wide receivers

that if you let, let's say, let's just use Debo Samuel and AJ Brown, two second round wide receivers who became absolute superstars. Let's think about like some of the criticism of them. Now I'm trying to remember back to like draft season, what it was, but I think that the criticism for Debo Samuel is that he was so much a yak guy that he wasn't a detailed route runner. It was just like, everything was just get the ball in his hands, let him run. So the NFL is like, I don't know, you know, is he going to play like X wide receiver?

It's going to be like a flanker. Is he going to do these like deep in cuts and stuff that we want him to do? So maybe we'll wait till the second, because there's one thing that could hold them off from being a really good player. Now he got to San Francisco, they used him to his max and he became a superstar. So there you go. Uh, this with AJ Brown, I think it was like, what he has stone hands and maybe wasn't the best route runner or something. I can't remember exactly, but he was just known as bullying people. So there was concerns. Is he going to be able to separate when all he's done is just bully people and maybe he doesn't have the best hands,

which I think he still drops some passes. Okay. Well, that's more of a second round wide receiver because now they've both maximized every bit of talent. They're both superstars. They're both fantastic, but there was reasons why the NFL did not look at them as complete all around perfect wide receiver prospects. And yet they became good. I think there's a lot of those guys here where you could say, Hey, look, Quinton Johnston is kind of like Debo Samuel sorta like if you squint, he's this super like, go look at just highlight reels are stupid in draft season. Right? But Quinton Johnston's highlight reel is so much fun.

He catches the ball, immediately dodges a tackler and goes for like 30 yards. I mean, it's like that's all of his highlights. And he's a body catcher and he doesn't have great hand drops the ball. So the NFL is going to say for some guys like this, Jordan Addison's not even 185 pounds. They're going to say, look, these these things investing a first round pick is a lot for somebody who's got some things to them but that doesn't mean that they can't be good and that's the way i look at it even with like number 23 or if the vikings trade down it's like christian watson last year good example here's a receiver that didn't play against the best competition mostly just ran by everybody

so he's got some flaws drop some footballs and you know okay you take him in the second round and and again like he isn't a complete hit yet but he certainly flashed some if the vikings were to trade down and take a receiver with some flaws i don't think we should look at him and be like oh well you know guy dropped some passes in college it, no, there's a lot of examples of flawed players becoming very good in the NFL in the second round at that position. So I don't think they'll drop all the way to the third. It's my point. But I do think that we could be looking at like two the way that things play out.

I would guess if I had to right now that jackson smith najigba goes pretty high top 15 top 17 and we end up seeing like i i don't know about johnson like the drops kind of hurt him but maybe jordan addison because he's a very very good route runner and the league likes that more of a technician let's i think that, maybe three go in the first round, the rest will drop to the second round. And then if they do, and this is a pure guess, but if they do and the Vikings trade down, there's opportunity there. So yeah, I don't think it's exactly the same. And the other thing too, is if you overdraft a wide receiver by a little bit, he becomes good. It's fine. No one will really remember it it if you draft a desmond ritter in the

first round you gotta play him like they're they're doing it anyway in atlanta but i just mean if you draft matt corral first round you gotta play him you gotta make him like your guy that's just the reality of the nfl uh they don't really take shots on quarterbacks in the first round because that's a big investment of the entire organization. So that's kind of a big deal. And you could see where there were so many flaws to Willis, Corral and Ritter in hindsight that all the teams kind of went, you know what? It's not really worth putting our name on that guy. Like it would be for a, you know, Bryce Young or a a cj shroud okay great stuff great

questions from everybody really appreciate those as always purpleinsider.com is back working so submit your questions there or to me at matthew collar shoot me a dm shoot me an at mention and i will put you down for uh you know more of this We got more guests coming up. A source tells me Courtney Cronin is going to appear on the show this week. Lots to go until we get to the draft, but we are approaching it very soon. Also, if you go to purpleinsider.com, sign up for the newsletter there. Every article of mine goes right to your inbox and you get the Friday mailbag every week, which is exclusive to subscribers. And you also get our draft guide, which I am ferociously plowing through right now. But every year we put that

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