Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Did the Vikings miss something about J.J. McCarthy? PFF's Trevor Sikkema answers

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

Trevor Sikkema of PFF joins the show to discuss J.J. McCarthy's early struggles and looks back at whether the Vikings missed something about McCarthy leading up to the draft. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, presented by Fanduel, Matthew Collar here. And look who's back on the show, Trevor Sikima of pro football focus. Trevor, we got a lot to talk about. And I really want to focus on quarterbacks, quarterback play, quarterback theory, quarterback thoughts, feelings and emotions. You are the draft maven now these days at PFF. And so why don't we, why don't we look back a little bit to start with the conversation of J.J. McCarthy and begin with that draft, work our way through what is going on right now, look forward into the future and see what we can come up with. I want to, I want to know, I'm sure I asked you then, but I don't remember what you said about J.J. McCarthy when he was

coming out, because I've gotten a lot of questions from fans about, well, should they have seen something in these mechanics when he was coming out in the draft? Why did they think that certain things are fixable? Are certain things still fixable? But going back to 2024, when he was coming out, where did you stand on how much he would be able to improve things like footwork and the accuracy, which I think was talked about a fair amount when he was a draft prospect? Yeah. So it's a it's a multi-layered conversation, right? And I think that with J.J. McCarthy, when you watched him when he was at Michigan, there were moments, right? And I think that there were the moments that you watched him and you went, like, there it is. Like, that is a fantastic

quarterback. You feel great about that. But of course, I think everybody talked about this similarly. He wasn't asked to throw a lot, right? He played for some very stacked Michigan teams, right? And just they had a great run game, a great offensive line, a phenomenal defense behind them that ended up being a catalyst for them winning a national championship. And McCarthy was part of that. I don't want to take him away from it, but it's not like he was the sun in the universe, right? It's not like it was all revolving around him, but there were still good moments. Here's an example. You know, when I look at quarterback play, there's two areas that we have the ability to sort of shrink down the data into into different situations. And there's

two situations that I always love to look at. Now, they're not the, and I'll be all for quarterbacks, but they are telling, and I appreciate when quarterbacks are really good in these situations. The first one is third and long. Who are you on third and seven plus? Because at that point, you know, you're not often having the ability to just dump it off to somebody and have them realistically get seven yards when defenses are playing six coverage where they're just sitting at the first down marker and they're going to come downhill, right? So you've got to be able to achieve third and sevens with your arm. So I'd like to put guys in that situation. And to be honest with you, Carthy graded out pretty well, a third and long situation.

So I went, okay, like I see this from him along with the good moments. And then the other one is the intermediate middle of the field, 10 to 19 yards down the field. How good are you? How often do you attempt throws in that area? Because there's a lot of college quarterbacks that go, whoa, a lot of defenders over there. Don't really like that. But we know that you have to be able to hit those layered throws, those over the middle of the field throws to truly make the defense defend, quote unquote, every blade of grass,

if you will. If you were just an outside thrower, we've seen this with Michael Pennix, for example. Penix was a big time outside the numbers sideline thrower when he was at Washington. And that was a big reason why I was concerned about him coming into the NFL. Now, he's still been able to hit over the middle, but you could tell he's just not as comfortable doing it. And now he's not comfortable with a lot of things. We're seeing a miss when he's to the sideline. And that's kind of a whole thing of him being a first time, full time, started this season that he's growing through. Obviously, now he's got the knee injury. So that's going to complicate things more, but specifically getting back to McCarthy, he actually performed decently well in those

areas. Now, the volume, of course, like, it wasn't quite there that it was for maybe other quarterbacks, but those are two areas where he played well. And I go, okay, I kind of like how he processes the game there. He sees it from an NFL mindset. Then, of course, you go to the fundamentals. And he is somebody who his fundamentals were inconsistent when he was in college. But I think that that came down to the fact that he's not the most physically gifted thrower. in the world, right? He's not to Josh Allen's, the Patrick Mahomes, you know, the guys who have that top tier arm talent. He is somebody who has to put a little bit more of his body into throws for those tight window throws. Now at Michigan, again, I'm not saying that he didn't play

in big games. He, of course, he played in big rivalry games. He played through the college football playoff. He played for a national championship. Those are big time moments. But when you play on a team like Michigan and you know you've got your defense behind you, you know you've got your run game behind you, the pressure is kind of off of you a little bit. So you don't feel the weight of the world on your shoulders as much. And when you were playing without as much pressure, you play more confidently. And I think because of that, we saw him have some more, I would say, consistent timing with when he was getting rid of the ball. And so you didn't have to see him sort of force these throws to get more of his body into it. There were accuracy, inconsistencies with him

in college. But from what we're seeing now, what we're seeing right now in the NFL is, one, I think that this needs to be talked about. He has not been good here in this first year with him as a starter. I think that everybody knows that. I'm not breaking any glass. I'm not shattering anybody's reality. He has not been good up to this point. But you can still, you are still allowed to say, hey, he's only a handful of games into his NFL career as a first time starter. And when you were a young NFL quarterback, you are trying to take in so much. And the speed of the game is just so night and day different. It really, it really can't feel like you are playing a totally different game. So I think the reason why we're seeing so big of struggles for McCarthy is, one, he had

some fundamental throwing motion issues with how he was inconsistent with putting his whole body into throws. We're seeing that show up in his low accuracy scores. And two, he's not seeing things fast enough. So if he is a half second or a second late and he's trying to make up for it, well, then the fundamentals are going to be even worse. So to me, everything that we're seeing right now, the pressure to sack ratio, the poor accuracy scores, the high, uncatchable, inaccurate passes, all of that stuff stems from the fact that he's late on his reads. He's late seeing the defense move at this speed compared to what he was playing with in college football. and then of course the fundamentals which we already said were going to be a work in progress for him so that's sort of the encompassing what i thought of McCarthy who he is right now in the NFL and i'm not just trying to give him a get out of jail free card because he could improve he still could improve i want people to know that as well like it's not like we look at him here we go oh this is it like he'll never be better i mean he might not but it's also realistic to say all right you he was recovering through injury last

year. He did not note what NFL speed was last season. You're really not going to fix throwing motions fundamentals during the season. I want people to realize that too. That's not really an in-season thing. It's not like, oh, week two to week 12, look at how much better his fundamentals are. He's trying to handle a lot of things. He's not like he's working on his fundamental, sure, but that's an off-season thing. Like that's getting in the lab and the off-season type of a thing. So we know he's going to get another year after this. I really do feel like the way that we've seen it right now in 2025, clearly the Viking season has not been what they've wanted it to be. It does not look like they're going to be a postseason team.

Really, you have to just think about what he's going to do this off season, how he is going to improve. Because him not having all the armed talent in the world, you could still live with that, but you have to be on time. You cannot be late to stop because that's when you really get in trouble. Can he see quarterbacks talk about this all the time? The game slowly. down for me. Oh, well, when the game slowed down for me, if the game slows down for J.J. McCarty, I think he's got enough armed talent to be a good starter and a winner in this league. But that's what has to happen first. And it has not happened. It's nowhere close to that happening right now. And that's why we're seeing him struggle. Folks, this year is the year that I

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results may vary based on studies of topical and oral monoxidil and finesteride. Featured products include compound drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality prescription required see website for full details restrictions and important safety information so just you know going back for my takes on j j mccarthy during the draft was it was concerning to me that his team didn't lean into him as a passer sure because i mean usually if you are a top 10 caliber draft pick they build the whole ship around you. Now, I understand that Jim Harbaal was the guy who was running the operation and they won a national championship by not doing it. So it's not like they did it wrong with McCarthy.

I'm always a little bit concerned when we start slicing and dicing things down to, I mean, you mentioned and you should look at intermediate and you should look at third down and sevens, but, you know, things like that, it was almost like that's the only thing that we have to work with here is a handful of, okay, well, these worked, but half of those games are against teams that are not even good at all. And that's the hard part about all college data and trying to apply it into an NFL prospect. I thought he was really good at running play action, throwing over the middle. And the actual velocity that he could put on the football was kind of ridiculous. And then it still is. Even though yes, he is more of a like having to drive

his whole body behind it, that thing whizzes through the air. And when he first got to Minnesota, that was the first observation from rookie mini camp was, whoa, this thing, this thing is cooking out there with the sheer velocity. And I had covered Kirk Cousins before. And sheer velocity was not how you would describe Kirk Cousins. I was like, okay, wow. And the athleticism, I think was always very much there. He had some really excellent scrambles, runs, plays in space. There was the one play where they ran a trick play and he had to catch it over his head when it was a bad throwback to him and then make a play off it. So I think he's a very, very natural athlete and you can make something out of that.

But the one concern that I had was that I didn't think any of these things were like a 10 out of 10 for him. I don't think he's a 10 out of 10 athlete. He's not the biggest. And when it comes to the velocity, it's great. But also the great throwers, like Justin Herbert doesn't try to throw it from the outfield. He doesn't throw it as hard as he can every single time, which is what J.J.

McCarthy is doing. So the thought was that you draft him and you develop him for an entire year. And this will always be a part of his story that the most important time for him to develop was taken away by that knee injury. And you think about like when you're a little kid, you're learning some sort of skill. Like imagine you were learning how to golf and then you broke your arm for a summer. And then you had to go back the next year and be like, what was it that I was learning when I was six? Now I got to learn it when I'm eight. Right.

And it feels like also not just learning it, but learn. it under the white hot lights of the NFL where folks like us picked the Vikings to be good this year. And the front office also spent all the money around him. And he's a really smart kid. He knows all of this. He knows what type of pressure is on him. And I've really felt like the last two weeks, it's shown up even more some of the mechanical issues because you can feel it weighing on him. I have to make a play. I've got to prove that I'm the guy. I've got to show that I'm nine. And I think that is what ends up having some footballs fly over people's heads and stuff like that. Oh, there's no question. And you sort of brought it up there at the end. Like it's the mental

part of it that's so difficult to judge, right, for any prospect, let alone quarterback where it's paramount. And the reason why I like to put quarterbacks in those certain situations is because there's a little bit more pressure on it, right? You maybe get to peer into like, okay, what is this player like when it is just on them in a third and long situation over the middle when you really have to hit a tight window type of throw. There's not much margin for error there. That sort of puts you into their mindset. And if they're successful in those areas, then you go, okay, like under pressure, obviously is something that you could judge as well. But you go a pressure to sack ratio right when the bullets are flying. Are you taking a sack?

Are you able to get rid of the ball? Do you know where your hot reads are? Like all that kinds of stuff that takes you into the mind because it's it's easy to watch the tape and go like yeah, that guy's physically got it or okay, he's a seven out of 10 like you mentioned or a five at a 10 or a nine out of 10 whatever. But it's truly the between the ear stuff that makes all the difference in the world with quarterbacks. And I agree with you. You know, missing last year was was a bummer for him. But sometimes I think that people do forget that he did indeed miss last year. And you talked about how there's not a lot of touch on his passes right now. again, that goes into because I think he's late.

I think he's late to seeing things. And I think he goes, oh, crap, I was supposed to see this a half second earlier. Let me put some extra mustard on it. And then the fundamentals go to hell. And then the football is flying too fast. And you're not giving guys a chance. Whereas you brought up Justin Herbert. The thing that I love so much about Justin Herbert right now and how he's playing some

incredible football is he's got all the armed talent in the world. And I think early in his career, certainly when he was at Oregon as well, it's a lot of just fastball stuff. And this year, he is so much better at just throttling down the revolutions per second on the football and just he's able to get it to his wide receivers at the right time, but also like making it easy for them to catch it, right? You could gun it in there and you could say to yourself all you want like, oh, it hit his hands. But in reality, if you could have taken a little off of it and made the catch easier, well, that's also your job as a quarterback. So, you know, look, it's it is rough for McCarthy right now. There's no doubt.

And what you hope is that just the last half of this season certainly looks better than the first half. You want him to get as many reps as possible. You want him to look a little bit better because, you know, not that this happens with everybody, but you think about it with guys like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield and you watch these guys and like they were bad. Baker was better than Darnold, but you know what I'm saying? Like they weren't good enough during the first four or five years of their NFL career. And it kind of took them time for the game. to slow down for them to be totally confident. I mean, the player that Sam

Donald is today, I know that Vikings fans know this well because of how well he played last year, but like he's the guy in New York, they're not even the same player. They're not even the same person. And sometimes it just takes a little bit of time. And I can understand why fans think this because it's not fun to go, oh, well, we'll be there in three or four years, even though that might be the reality timeline for some quarterbacks. In reality, a lot of fan bases watch what Jane Daniels did as a rookie, you know, they'll watch what C.J. Stroud did as a rookie. They'll watch what Drake May is doing right now.

And they go, well, they got the right guy. They picked the right guy there in that scenario. And I think that unfortunately, too often we look at cases like that as like the expectation. Like, well, why didn't, why isn't our quarterback like that? And in reality, like, that's not normal. Like that's not, I mean, shoot, even C.J. Stroud, look at what he was as a rookie. And now he hasn't quite been as good as what he was as a rookie. There's some situational things with him. But you know what I'm saying? Like, it's just the first, I think that people harp so much on a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract, meaning so much to your team, which is a factor here that they want them to be these elite quarterbacks right away. And the fact of the matter is just most of these guys just aren't. Like even the good ones. most of them just aren't again we talk about josh allen people bringing this up all the time like

josh allen was terrible through his first two years it took him till his third year and obviously it clicked for him in the third year and he's been on a rocket ship ever since but like it just takes time for a lot of these guys and again i'm not saying that for as like a huge cop out for mccarthy i mean we were chatting a little bit before we hit the record button it's not that mccarthy is not good McCarthy's the worst like mccarthy other than the situation with maybe what's going on with the Jets and the Browns, like McCarthy's pretty much been the worst quarterback in the NFL so far this year. So that I think is multiplying the frustration is it's not like he's ranked 21st, 22nd out of quarterbacks in the league. Like he's, he's near the very bottom in a lot

of those statistics. I think that's the part that's really frustrating. And I can understand that from the fans point of view. Right. And I think that's the hard part to work our way through of how much to make of those five games because you certainly can't ignore what the numbers are with him so far. And even if you said, well, you know, there's been some drops, adjusted completion percentage, four drops. He's 36th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks. And the PFF, they've got, or ESPN's got those numbers of it on target percentage. I think pro football reference has something like this as well. And it's at the bottom of the league when it comes to that. So, it's not just gains that need to be made. And I think going into this, it's,

it's leaps, it's jumps forward that have to be made. And going into the season, I think that you and I both felt like, well, if he could throw for 3,500 yards and 24 touchdowns and 10 picks, like have a 17th best season in the league with great receivers, with an offensive line that's massively improved with the better running game, with the good defense. Yet this team will be in the playoffs. And the unfortunate thing is you look at the lions, they're not perfect. You look at the Packers. They're not perfect. The Bears, I think, are primed to fall off toward the end of this season. And it was kind of right there for you. And it hasn't been even really anywhere close to where it needed to be. So now the question

becomes final seven games of the season are not really about making the playoffs unless J.J. McCarthy, uh, drinks whatever, uh, Bugs Bunny gave the guys in space jam. Great reference. And maybe if that happens, then it's going to click in. How far can you go? I mean, you said it and I totally agree with you that if you're trying to fix mechanics in the middle of a season and, you know, the coaches are saying, hey, we're working on it. We're reping it and all those. You get, I don't know, 15 passes a day or something in practice. Right. Right. You're not throwing hundreds of balls. Yeah.

Uh, in practice. I mean, how. how much can he improve from the final seven games of the season? Yeah, I mean, I think that he can improve a lot, certainly from where he is. I mean, you mentioned that statistic. And I was just looking it up because I remember we mentioned it on our preview show yesterday on PFF YouTube channel, if you look at the quarterbacks who have had 50 dropbacks to this season, McCarthy is 43 out of 43 quarterbacks when it comes to accuracy percentage. So that's not like completion percentage.

That's not like, oh, okay, yeah, the wide receiver caught it. We're talking about was this an accurate throw? And he's at 50.5%. It's basically a coin flip in all situations, whether or not he even has an accurate pass. So that's, I mean, that number has to very obviously be way higher. And when I was looking at some of his passing statistics and some of the data points, where he seems to struggle the most is a lot of like three high coverage stuff. So it'll be cover three, but it's sort of like,

okay, maybe you thought it was too high initially pre-snap and they're rotating or a lot of times it's like it's a cover six look where you know, you see something again pre-snap and they're rotating guys over or guys, you know, they're following a certain receiver this way. They're matching it a certain way. But in the end, we've got a three-deep responsibility coverage shell that you're looking at. And when McCarthy is throwing deep when he's trying to make a play deep, he just he does not see that super well. Again, because he does not have that experience. And he's either late seeing it or doesn't see it at all. And so really those three deep coverage looks are the ones where I was watching his tape. And I was like, man, he's just,

he's not seeing this post snap rotation. He's not ready for it. He is reacting instead of anticipating. So it can look better from a floor perspective, right? Like again, the goal for McCarthy at this point is when we get towards the end of the season, I am hoping you are ranked near 20th in a lot of these categories. accuracy percentage, you know, pressure to sack ratio, like all this kinds of, like, I think that that is important for him. Honestly, like in those categories as well of like intermediate stuff, uh, third and long situations.

Like I still want to see you play well there, but it's funny, I put these quarterbacks in like over the middle of the field situations. Throwing to the sideline is now like where he's struggling in the NFL. Again, because he's late. It's timing stuff. And if he is late, he feels like he's got to put extra juice on it. he's more inaccurate. So that all goes into it.

So just going back to your question, like, yes, it can improve. I think the floor should improve. I don't think that they're getting to a level where this team is legitimately going to be a playoff team. And I think most of the improvement from McCarthy is going to come this spring. I really do. What you want is you just want to see progress. Can he get, again, can he creep closer to that? All right, he's the middle 20th ranked quarterback or something around 20 instead of 40.

third out of 43 eligible quarterback like that's the stuff where you really don't want to see his name at the bottom of the barrel because then you have to go into this offseason and go, man, is this really going to be, it's going to take basically the whole rookie contract for him to be the player that you want him to be. And then unfortunately, you might be in a situation where you go, okay, well, now he's playing on the fifth year option. He's finally playing incredibly well, but it's the only season where he's played incredibly well. Or shoot, if you didn't pick up the fifth year option and the fourth year he plays incredibly well and now you go into a situation where you're going to the off season you go well he played really great but

it was only one year of it do we believe in the progress do we believe it's a mirage that's uh that's when you get into some tricky financial situations so that's what i would say is is i know this is a cliche i know it's sort of the obvious but uh just progress from where he is right now you don't need to be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL just don't be bottom 10 and i think that's what's really important over these next seven games for him. Well, that's going to be the big challenge for the organization is evaluating these last seven games and how much can you really make of them in general? Because we've seen Sam Darnold it tricked the Jets a couple of times with, oh, well, those last five games, he was pretty good. And they've got Washington and they've got Dallas and

they've got the Giants. And you can have some pretty good games, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be over 17. I think that that's a really big thing that the organization will have to balance because with the group that they have, they've built the best offensive line. I think it's one of the best offensive lines of the league when it's completely healthy.

Dude, I love this team on paper. I pick full transparency, hand up. I pick the Vikings to go to the Super Bowl. Because I looked at this team and said, of course, like, health is the big thing for any team, right? You have to stay healthy. But I was like, if this team has the luck of health, on their side. All McCarthy has to be is like a game manager.

And I think that this team either competes for the top of this division or it makes a wild card. And I love the stuff that they're made up of. So I would totally agree with you with that. Let me ask you about a couple other quarterbacks if you don't mind. Right now, on Fandul, the MVP favorite is Matthew Stafford, which gives hope to all of us who are a certain age of, hey, you know what? You could go into them late 30s. You could still still live your life. Stafford, I think, I think the Rams are the best team in the entire NFL. I agree. Stafford to me is an interesting story in himself because what I'd like to do is look at these other quarterbacks, kind of try to connect him a little bit to what's happening

here because early in his career, obviously he's playing for a terrible team. But for a lot of his lion's career, he's reckless. He's inaccurate at times. And he's, whoa, holy cow. But it just shows you how long as Kevin O'Connell calls at the quarterback journey is. He is now playing like Tom Brady. Like he's in the pocket. He's picking apart defenses. He's throwing accurately. He's running the offense to a T. And it's old man Stafford didn't want to get hit in the back anymore and decided that he was going to play the smartest football of his career. But do you, do you agree that he would be the MVP right now? Let me see what the odds are there. Yeah. Plus, plus 135 for him to be the MVP right now and that the Rams should be the Super Bowl favorite.

Yeah, you know, I don't know where this phrase originated. So I don't know who said at first, but youth is wasted on the young, I think is something that I think about, especially when it comes to situations like this where, you know, Tom Brady and Drew Breeze and Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford would all be like, I'm the best version of myself right now, but I just happened to be 38. You know, if I was, if I was 26, if I had my 26 year old arm right now, but the mind of a 38 year old, I'd be the greatest quarterback of all time, but it's just that that's part of what McVeigh talks about, I'm sure, with the quarterback journey is balancing that, staying healthy, making sure you can preserve your arm as much as possible,

because if you survive in this league and you get to your early 30s, mid 30s, whatever, the wisdom that you have, you're going to be able to beat people with your mind as much just your arm. I mean, Brady, look at what he did in Tampa above the age of 40. Not only did he, you know, really take good care of his body, but Brady said all the time, he's like, I had the answer to the test. Every week, I had the answer to the test. I knew how to study film. I knew how to study my opponents. And every single Sunday, I can't remember, I can't remember when he said he learned this or this became a standard for him. But he has the quote where he's like, I wouldn't snap the ball unless I knew exactly where every player on the

was going to go. And he's like, we had two, we had multiple plays, obviously, where we had an initial play, and then I could kill it to another play, or I could make an audible, I could have a wide receiver look at him and kind of hot route him a certain way. But he's like, I wouldn't snap the football unless I knew exactly where the defense was. Can you imagine if you're a quarterback? And like every single play, it's simply just about the execution of where the ball is going. You're not surprised at all. You're as calm as could possibly be. As long as the offensive line doesn't get whooped within the first two seconds, you know that you're completing the past. That's an incredible reality, and it feels like that is how Matthew Stafford is playing

right now. I do think that he would be my MVP. I think that it's such a interesting race between him, Drake May, and Sam Darnold, to be honest with you, because Sam is also playing at an unbelievable level with what the Seahawks are doing. And I think that he doesn't quite get the credit that Drake May and Matthew Stafford are getting right now simply because, like, you just look at the turnaround that the Patriots have. A lot of people look at Drake May and how he's playing. And he is playing at a great level. I'm not trying to take anything away from him.

But Matthew Stafford's part of what most people would say is the best team in the NFL right now. But I still think that Sam's had an unbelievable year. And even this past game against the Rams, like, yeah, yeah, the four turnover worthy plays and the four turnovers, those objectively weren't great. But if you look at like the in between snaps of those turnovers, like he still plays well in that game. I don't think that this was a full, like he turned back. to a pumpkin type of game from him.

I just think that Chris Shulah, the defensive coordinator for the Rams, is going to be a head coach soon in this league. And he just is, he knows that defense and what they're capable of so well. And I can't wait for the rematch there when they match up against Seattle because I think that that's going to be a fun game when it's then at home for the Seahawks. But all that to say, I don't think anybody's playing the position better than Matthew Stafford is right now. the term MVP like most valuable to the team like then you start doing some mental gymnastics

of like well you know whose team is worse and is this guy carrying a certain way but Stafford's playing the position as good as anybody can and as good as anybody is in the league right now and so I would still give him that MVP none let me ask about Jordan Love the Vikings are playing against the Packers this week and Jordan Love's got about half his players to work with this weekend. Tucker Kraft going out was pretty crushing for them. I feel like Jordan Love is a guy that everyone wants to create a debate about, but isn't controversial enough to ever really have a debate about, right? I think we know what Jordan Love is at this point. And he's never bad enough for stretches. He'll have a bad game like everybody does. But he doesn't have like a five

game stretch where he's absolutely horrible. And then all the people who don't like him could come out. And he'll have some very hot stretches as well. But I also feel like it's not it's not so crazy hot that we're ever talking about MVP for Jordan Love. And then at the end of the year, you look at it and you go, all right. Well, he's ath on PFF and he has a hundred and three quarterback rating and they won 11 games and like, what am I supposed to do with this guy? The Vikings have had mostly good times against him with Brian Flores' defense. So I feel like there's a natural advantage there that they have of just changing so much. You mentioned like at the line of scrimmage, sending lots of different types of blitzes,

different coverages, all those things. And also the Vikings play more zone defense than anyone. So you're asking the quarterback to pick things apart at the line of scrimmage and post snap. But where do you stand? Like are you guys, do you have, um, on your show, do you have big, uh, Jordan love debates or do we feel like it's pretty settled for you? We really don't have a ton. I mean, he's just, he's consistently the eighth to the 12th best quarterback in the NFL, right? Like that like that's genuinely the range that he's in. So I always hate, I hate the debates where it's like, well, is Jordan love top 10? It's like, yeah, in some situations. And then like in other situations, I might have him right outside, but I'll either have him right in the top 10, right outside of the top 10.

And that's sort of like where he's been floating over the last couple of years. But when you have a top eight to 12 quarterback in the league, like you can win with that. And I think that they've won some really big games, but also, of course, when you have teams that are playing really well against you, sometimes he steps up in the brightest, but sometimes he doesn't. You know, you talk about how he's done specifically under pressure. I think there were times in his career where he used to really struggle under pressure. This year is really not the case. I mean, when you look at him against the Blitz, he's got a really high PFF passing grade against the Blitz. really high adjusted completion percentage.

The pass rating is good. The pressure to sack ratio is very low against the blitz. So like all of that stuff has been pretty great for him this year. But like you said, like you could just point to different things here and there where you go like, ah, you know, this could have been a little bit better in this spot. This could a little bit been a little bit better here. And playing quarterback in the NFL is really hard. Ultimately, the way that I would say it is just like, I think Jordan Love is somebody

that you can win a conference championship with. And if you win a conference championship, you get to a Super Bowl. It's one game. Of course, I think that you're in the conversation to potentially win a Super Bowl as well. He's one of a few quarterbacks where I think he has the ability and the potential to be able to do that. I think of him, I'm just sort of thinking of this off the top of my head. So if people hold me to this, I'm subject to change my opinion here. But like I kind of think of love a little bit like I think of Eli Manning, where it's like you look at Eli Manning's two Super Bowls.

And when Eli Manning was hot and that New York Giants team was hot, they got two rings. And like I genuinely feel that's a Jordan love type of a player where he has the ability to get hot. and win a Super Bowl ring. Like, I think that's well within the realm of possibility. But then in the in between, let me some ups and downs a little bit here. And so that's sort of the narrative. I'm not saying that it's like an exact one-to-one comp

with who he is versus who Eli is and all of that. But that's sort of just the way that I view him when it comes to the grander conversation. Because there's always evolutions of the conversation, right? Was he worth this draft pick? Is he a top 10 quarterback? Is he a Super Bowl winning quarterback? And like you have these progressions where,

you have these different conversations with love. And I think now we're at the point where in his career, where the Packers are, you're having the, is he a quarterback that wins you the Super Bowl type of a conversation? And to be honest with you, like, I would say yes. Like, I think he, I think he has the talent to be a Super Bowl winning quarterback. He's just kind of going to be somebody where momentum. Like he's just got to hit it hot, get into the playoffs, hot. The team is rolling the way that they need to be.

But if that's the case, yeah, I think that he's got the ability to do that. So the way that I've decided to bunch quarterbacks is between chances to win the Super Bowl, which is if you are Tom Brady, then you have, well, he had 20 chances to win the Super Bowl. But most quarterbacks don't play that long. So use the number like 10 times. You'd have a chance to win a Super Bowl. If you are Josh Allen, if you're Lamar Jackson, if you're Patrick Mahomes, over a career, you probably get 10 shots at it because you're winning double digit games time and time and time again.

you're pretty much roster proof most of the time. I guess Mahomes hasn't been the last two years, but most of the time in your career, right? There's two or three of those guys per generation. And then there's the Eli Manning, the Matt Ryan, the Philip Rivers, who maybe get four or five shots at it over a career, where everything comes together.

Most of the time they're going to win eight games, 10 games, nine games. But when they have a great team, it's 13. And they've got a chance to win the Super Bowl. And I feel like half the league, has fallen into that category right now. Like I would put Stafford in there. I'd put Dak Prescott in there.

I would put like there's I feel like outside of that big three and none of them are playing at the same level that they usually do, Alan Jackson and Mahomes. There's a bunch of guys. And I think Jordan Love is just in that mix. Jalen Hertz is kind of that way. And Jalen Hertz, of course, has this unbelievable team that, you know, gives him that opportunity. But I think he's probably that type of guy that if the team falls off will not. have many more chances to win Super Bowls.

So it's so interesting this year to me that normally we would just be saying, well, look, you know, Mahomes, he'll probably be in the Super Bowl or Alan, he'll probably be in the Super Bowl. But there's a lot up in the air, I feel like this year. Yeah, there are. There's a lot of quarterbacks that I think have the opportunity to, yeah, sort of ascend into that second tier that you talked about. You have the guys that are always going to be there.

When Burroughs fully healthy, I'd absolutely put him in that top tier conversation. because of how he plays, right? I think Herbert is showing us right now. He's on the cusp of that. Maybe tier one, if not the first name that you'd probably name in tier two, depending on just the stipulations of kind of how you're having this conversation. But this year, certainly there's a lot of quarterbacks that are saying, well, hold on, wait, I could be in that tier two.

We could be in that tier two because the bills aren't as strong as they have been in years past. The chiefs aren't as strong as they have been in years past. The Ravens aren't right. The AFC is way more wide open. I think the NFC is really competitive, but you've got, you know a couple of really competitive divisions right the nfc north is super competitive and then the nfc west is super competitive and then it's like the a fc they're the nfc south not really uh i mean like it it is between who's going to win i don't mean that is like carolina disrespect

or anything but like the bucks aren't playing super well carolina's very high variance right now and so like even that it's like okay whoever wins that division do you feel super strong about them winning four games in a row to get to a super bowl i don't know about that And then the Eagles, obviously sitting where they're at, at the top of the NFC East, outside of them. Yeah, I like the Cowboys as well, but clearly the Cowboys defense is not where it needs to be to compete. So it's just one of those years where it is. It's more wide open than it ever has been. And I think a lot of quarterbacks, I think a lot of fan bases might have offseason conversations this year at the point to and be like, no, no, no, our quarterback's in Tier 2.

and tier two might go from five names, six names to nine or ten names this offseason. Like it's just a lot of teams might look at their quarterback and say, no, no, no, no. Like our guys in, our guys in tier two, our guys absolutely in tier two of players that could win a Super Bowl. And it'll be interesting to kind of look back and analyze that. Yeah, maybe the Colts even think that about their quarterback, although I'm not, I'm not fully convinced. Okay, here's the last question. The last question is the hardest question. because I'm not there yet with J.J. McCarthy to, oh, the team's got to look for

separate options. But just for, just for a fun chatter. Okay. So there are no repercussions of this following discussion. Okay. Let's say that I went forward in the future. And I chose in my time machine for some reason to go to March. And I wanted to look around and see what was going on in the NFL and then just come back. That's what I used the time machine for, right? Nothing else. And I saw something that really blew my mind of who was the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings. And I went, him? Wow.

Okay. Who am I talking about? You're asking who might be a different quarterback that they have right now? If they, if, if I went to March and I found, out that it wasn't J.J. McCarthy. Yeah. Maybe he's still on the roster. Maybe he's not. But I looked, I just looked at their depth chart and then I came right back. I had to come right back to the present.

Right. I went, he's, he's their quarterback. I got to go back and tell everybody. Yeah. I think the only, the only three that makes sense to me as even like options. Like I'm trying to think around the league off the top of my head. The Daniel Jones one, obviously, which, you know, like they have Daniel Jones in the building last year. They let him walk. He goes to the Indianapolis Colts, but he's been unbelievable, right? I mean, like, he is technically a free agent. He signed a one year deal. So like, okay, maybe you think that, but probably not because you had him in the building and you let him walk anyways. So probably not, but like he would be one. Kyler Murray is the other one that I think is the big name one. Because like for this

conversation, it would be half to, it would have to be somebody that you believe is an upgrade over JJ McCart. Yeah. So like those are the two that are the only ones who I, I think realistically you would have the chance to get your hands at, like, even Tua, right? Like, depending on what happens in Miami, like, I don't think you're going out of your way to deal with getting Tua on your roster and you go, yeah, we feel way better about this than J.J. McCarthy at this point. So I don't view like Tua as an option there. The last one, though, is Mac Jones. And Mac played well in Brock Purdy's stead. Is there a reality where you think, hey, we might be able to get Mac Jones here just as a true overall open competition

for who's going to be the best quarterback. And, you know, look, Daniel Jones entered this off season in an open competition with Anthony Richardson. Like, it wasn't like they signed Daniel Jones either like, this is our guy. He's going to be unbelievable. Like all this. Like, he sort of went into that similar scenario. Do you believe that maybe there's a similar scenario there where you could trade for Mac Jones, who I think is entering the last year of his deal in San Francisco. You feel like you could get something for him. He goes into that open competition with J.J. McCarthy because you just say to yourself, we don't want to waste the roster where it is right now. We talked about how good it is on paper. So that's really, those are the three that come to my mind.

I don't know if there's any other quarterback out there that one is, you know, acquireable, if you will. And then another one is of the level where you would entertain. this above just keeping J.J. McCarthy and having him for another year, right? The Kirk Cousins one, I don't really believe. You know, like, I don't, I don't think that that would be the case. I'm trying to think other, like, neither of the Cleveland quarterbacks if you wanted to get somebody else in there is, is somebody that I would entertain at that level. Andy Dalton, no. Marcus Marriota, I don't, I don't think Washington lets him leave with the injury potential that Jaden Daniels has like I just don't I just don't really think off the top of my

head there's a lot of other quarterbacks other than those ones Daniel Jones Tyler Murray and then Mac Jones and I think Mac Jones is probably the one that's most realistic what about Trevor Lawrence yeah so I thought of him as I was thinking about this I just it would have to so I had a I had a thought that I had a thought that I talked about amongst friends that I wanted if I would ever say in front of a microphone under a camera but there was a point. this year where I was like, let's just swap Kyla Murray and Trevor Lawrence and you see what happens. You know, like just let's you, let's just, similar. I don't know off the top of my head, like similarist contracts, but like, let's just, let's just see what happens here for both of them.

But obviously, I don't think that that's the case. I think Arizona is a lot close to moving on from Kyla Murray than the Jags are from moving on from Trevor Lawrence. But Lawrence is one of those guys who has he been horrendous? No. Has he lived up to what you've wanted him to be? Also, no. But for the Jags, I just, you already traded more. multiple draft picks to go get Travis Hunter. Do you feel like trading away your franchise quarterback and recouping those first round picks is really the best means of operation? I just, I can't, I can't get myself at this point to think that Jacksonville would do it.

I think there have been times where we've had this conversation and it's like, we're a little bit closer to this than I ever thought maybe we would be with Trevor Lawrence. I just don't think that they're quite there yet. They would have to play pretty dang bad down the stretch and miss the playoffs for us to entertain that. But that is the one that I thought about is like, I think this one actually makes the most sense for Minnesota to pursue. But I don't actually think we get to the point where he's going to be available. Right. And with Trevor Lawrence, even though I think he's settled into being not a good quarterback, there's always around the other side really,

really bad quarterback play, which I think is why teams sign these guys to 50 million dollar contracts. How are you signing that guy to this much money? Well, if you end up with a bad one, your franchise goes down, everyone gets fired. So, uh, yeah, I just, look, a lot's going to change over the next seven weeks. And we could be talking about options. We could also be talking about wow, J.J. McCarthy's ready to go into 2026, good to go. And those first five games will be long forgotten. I guess Trevor, we will find out. Trevor, you do a phenomenal podcast, the PFF NFL podcast. I also have a feeling that I'm going to be reading your work earlier than I want to as it pertains to the draft. I did not think that by December I was going

to be looking. Does Trevor have a mock draft out yet? But I might. So the simula, is the simulator up? Oh, brother. Oh, the simulator's been up and updated for over a month and a half now. now like we've got we've got more prospects on there than we ever have we've got almost 500 prospects on there i've got scouting reports for uh over 300 of them which obviously as we go into december we'll be updating all of those with sort of the final thoughts the class starts to become solidified but the mock draft simulator is up and running my friend get ready to learn jeremiah love the running back from from notre dame because i know a lot of your readers could be like wait a second maybe this guy is what J.J. McCarthy actually needs. So get ready to learn Jeremiah love, buddy. Corners. I think we're going to have to learn corners. But, yeah, well, all right, I'll be using that a lot more than I have in some previous years. But I appreciate all your time. And always great to get together with you. Tremendous conversation as expected. And we'll talk again soon. Thanks, Trevor. I appreciate you having me as always, Matthew. Always a good chat.

Thank you.