Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Does JJ McCarthy fit with the Vikings' scheme?

Episode Date: April 1, 2024

Matthew Coller answers lots of Vikings fans questions, from how JJ McCarthy might fit in the Vikings' scheme to what happens if Caleb Williams isn't taken No. 1 overall and much, much more... https:...//surfshark.deals/PURPLEINSIDER Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here, and this is another fans only episode in which I answer all the emails that you guys have sent me. So if you want to get involved, there's going to be plenty of these episodes to come because we've got a lot to talk about over the next month before the NFL draft with the Minnesota Vikings. So just go to purpleinsider.com where it says contact us. Hit me up over there or on Twitter at Matthew Collar. Very simple. Just send your question. I'll throw it in the queue and then I will get to it as soon as I can.
Starting point is 00:00:51 So lots of these, again, coming out over the next few weeks. So get involved, get your questions in. I know not all of you have time to get into the live chat. So this is your opportunity that I want to answer every question I can during this very exciting time for the Minnesota Vikings. So let's jump right in to our first question, which comes from Sarah. And Sarah asks, how do you think that J.J. McCarthy will fit into the Viking scheme? Because that's always one thing that is hard to predict and project, which is how is the fit going to be between a prospect and a team? And sometimes it can be a prospect that maybe would have been better off landing with a different team, landing with a different situation, landing with a different coach, and would have had a much better chance to succeed. And I think we know that Kevin O'Connell does boost the, I think, chances for any prospect
Starting point is 00:01:49 to succeed because of how hands-on he's going to be. This is not a defensive-minded head coach saying, hey, offensive coordinator, that's your problem. I'm over here dealing with my defense and just make sure your guy doesn't stink. Like this is Kevin O'Connell in the office every single day, designing and working with his quarterback to try to figure out which things work best. And as far as actual scheme fit, I don't believe that Kevin O'Connell is going to take his scheme and just say,
Starting point is 00:02:20 look, kid, you have to learn every aspect of this and play it exactly the way Kirk Cousins did, or you're fired. I don't think that it's going to be that way. I would project much more that there are the bones and basics of Kevin O'Connell's scheme, which probably exists in a lot of NFL schemes. And then it's all about the details. So which, which routes does a guy read the best? Which defenses a guy read the best? Which defenses does he read the best? Which does he throw the best?
Starting point is 00:02:49 Where can you put Justin Jefferson on the field to be the security blanket for your quarterback where he's going to be able to read and react and know where he is at all times? Or if there's double coverage, then know where to go with the football after that. And reading the, you know, getting checks and changes at the line of scrimmage, I think could be helped a bit by a veteran center and Garrett Bradbury, but it's also something
Starting point is 00:03:13 that the quarterback is going to have to be comfortable with. And that's just going to take, they love to use collaboration, a collaborative process between O'Connell and his quarterback to be able to figure out. But in this case, I do believe that JJ McCarthy has distinct advantages over some of the other quarterbacks as far as a fit with Kevin O'Connell and with what the Vikings want to do. And that starts with two things. Number one, under center. Now, Kevin O'Connell is not a huge under center guy, but NFL teams still run under center. They run play actions. They run bootlegs. They run a running scheme under center. And when you look at the way that Aaron Jones has run throughout his career,
Starting point is 00:03:58 a lot of it has been under center with the Green Bay Packers. The fact that they still have a fullback on the team in CJ Hamm, they still have a second tight end that they paid a lot of money to in Josh Oliver that they're going to want to use. So that means a lot more under center than maybe some other teams would do. And McCarthy is the rare quarterback prospect coming out of college who has actually done that. I remember Kellen Mond trying to learn that in his first training camp, and it was a nightmare for him because he had just never really done it before. So McCarthy has a leg up there. And then when I listened to him talk at the NFL combine, I was very impressed. And I think everybody else was as well, because you see what a good communicator he is.
Starting point is 00:04:46 If someone is a little more on the quiet side or can't really explain what they need, what they're seeing out there, how things could be potentially changed to help them out. That would be hard on Kevin O'Connell because he's got to hear from that guy, what he's seeing. He's the one with the football out there. That's a very important part of this. And I think McCarthy is good for that perspective to be able to communicate with Kevin O'Connell, get his point across, let him know what he's seeing, what he wants to do. And as far as like his actual skills, throwing the football, what I see is a lot of line drives, a lot of very hard throwing into windows where
Starting point is 00:05:27 he's ramping it up and he's firing it like he's trying to throw somebody out at home. And there will be a precision element of this offense that he's got to get down because it's really the kind of the opposite problem with Nick Mullins, who didn't have a strong enough arm. But we saw from Josh Dobbs and we saw from Nick Mullins when the precision wasn't there, it can get pretty ugly because this is an offense that is going to lean heavily on its quarterback. And that's the part where at least by what he's done in college is not a fit is they were a run first offense. This will never be a run first offense. If it was not a run first offense with
Starting point is 00:06:05 Nick Mullins or Josh Dobbs, then it won't be now. So he will have to get used to being in command, throwing on first and second down, being the guy that everybody's looking to all the time to handle every single part of the offense and to be able to make all the throws. And I think that at least as far as what we've seen from him in college, the potential exists for that to happen because he is a good communicator and he's had an NFL coach coaching him in college already and coaching him how to run, play actions and bootlegs and things that really work and translate over to the NFL. So nobody is ever a guarantee scheme fit, but I think that's why you see so many people
Starting point is 00:06:51 mock drafting JJ McCarthy to the Vikings is that you can see where he and O'Connell would be a pretty solid connection with each other for McCarthy to get into the NFL and grow pretty quickly. Roberto asks, Rick didn't get fired, Rick Spielman, after Christian Ponder. Do you think that Kwesi will get the same treatment? It really depends on how it goes. Because if we go back in time and look at the Christian Ponder draft pick, within a year, they were in the playoffs. And even though Christian Ponder did not play well,
Starting point is 00:07:25 you can look back at that game that he had to get them into the postseason. And then of course the Joe Webb thing happens and yada, yada, yada. But the game that he had where he got hurt to get them into the postseason. And that's something that Rick could hold onto as they went into 2013 and say,
Starting point is 00:07:44 look, we're going in the right direction. We've got our young quarterback. He's just got to grow. He's going to get better. And when he didn't, it was also because they had the 32nd ranked defense. So it was very easy to point to the head coach and say, look, this is on the head coach. Also, he couldn't get his defense turned around. We would have been a playoff team still if they only had had a better defense. So if you can mix in a coach firing to try to save your rear end, then yeah, you can survive for another year. But what Rick really needed was 2014 because, well, it was not a playoff season for the
Starting point is 00:08:20 Vikings. Mike Zimmer entirely turned that defense around. And with drafting Teddy Bridgewater, it kind of gave it new life when Teddy came in and looks pretty good and looked like a quarterback that could take them eventually to the playoffs and win a division as he did the following season. And then of course, in 2015, the fact that they had a top five defense, the fact that Teddy Bridgewater looked very good. adrian peterson came back they didn't have that built in came back they ran you know the most in the league got into the
Starting point is 00:08:50 postseason should have won a playoff game you could see how there was only that small window where the ownership would have been considering firing rick spielman but he had that card to play to pin it on les Frazier and then drafted another quarterback to be like, yeah, forget about that other guy that I picked. Don't worry about that. Don't look behind the curtain at the Christian ponder. It's Teddy Bridgewater. Now that is our guy. And look, by the time that Teddy Bridgewater was putting them in field goal position against Seattle, Rick looked pretty darn smart. Anthony Barr was great in his first couple seasons. The defense had turned around fast through a lot of the draft picks in 2015 that
Starting point is 00:09:31 looked great. So he looked like, oh yeah, yeah, yeah. It was Les Frazier's fall. Don't worry about the ponder picks. Not that big a deal. We got the new guy. And where I would say that Rick also was helped is that it wasn't that high of a pick. It was not a scenario where they were throwing all the assets into it. And this is where it could be very different for Kweisi Adafo Mensah. They've got a seven and 10 season. And now you might put everything into drafting your quarterback of the future. Several first round draft picks.
Starting point is 00:10:03 If by two years from now, you're bad and that guy hasn't worked out, then you look foolish and you could very much be on the hot seat too. And last year is relevant to this. When we talked to Mark Wilf at the owners meetings, he said like, I'm not letting those guys off the hook for a bad season last year, just because Kirk got hurt. They felt, I think that they should have been in the playoffs and gosh, they were close in a few of those games. Denver goes a different way. Maybe Nick Mullins throws the ball to Justin Jefferson instead of throwing what looks like me trying to throw a soccer ball for an interception against the
Starting point is 00:10:41 Detroit lions. Like they were close within kind of a hair of the playoffs. And it seems like the Wilfs were not pleased and not just willing to be like, ah, it's all good. Got you higher draft status. We know that's not them. So if they add that together, go seven and 10, maybe have a season where you miss the playoffs next year,
Starting point is 00:11:01 which I think would be something we'd project right now. And then if you're going into 2025, here's your young quarterback. This is where he's supposed to take a next step. I don't think Superbowl is the expectation just yet then, but it will be back to the playoffs, back to the top of the division, or that seat is going to be very, very hot. And I go back and forth because randomness and luck and drafting and all that stuff is very hard to predict, but it's sort of just the reality of the game. It's the price to play poker that if you're in the NFL and you draft the quarterback that fails and you have three straight seasons where you miss the playoffs, you are very unlikely to stick around for the longterm. I think process wise, the way
Starting point is 00:11:46 that they've handled this off season, the way Kevin O'Connell coaches is something that I would want to go forward with, but we also have to consider just what it looks like when you lose and how much the tension happens when you lose. Last year people at, by the end of the season are asking, does Kevin O'Connell really know offense because Josh Dobbs, he never adjusted and Nick Mullins, they didn't win and stuff like that. Like that seems absurd now that we're away from the heat of the season, but when you're in it yeah, you're ramping up the criticism with every single loss. It feels like the end of the world and how much would the Wilfs be able to put up with if that was still happening in 2025? I'm guessing not much. So to your question, I do not think they will get a second quarterback. If this one fails, there will
Starting point is 00:12:36 just be too much criticism that will ramp up and the Wilfs will get too frustrated by missing the playoffs and would probably make a change. However, if they hit on this quarterback, Kevin O'Connell could be your quarter, your head coach with his QB for the next 10 years. So it really is a helpless feeling in some ways, right? If you draft the right guy, he changes your life. If you draft the wrong guy, it can be miserable. And then somehow the 49ers fit in here into this entire mix where the 49ers drafted the wrong guy. They gave up everything. And yet somehow they still ended up in the Super Bowl last year. How often does that ever happen?
Starting point is 00:13:14 I don't know. Well, once upon a time, the Rams traded for Trent Green. I think they traded him or they drafted Trent Green, thought he was going to be the starting quarterback. And then Kurt Warner comes along after Trent Green gets hurt. And this can't predict the ball sometimes. So it's very hard to look deep into the future. Most of the time, though, if you draft a quarterback,
Starting point is 00:13:35 it doesn't work out after a couple of years. Everybody's going to be out. Adam says, draft apocalypse is not trading up and missing on Knicks and Pennix at 23, then going seven and 10 with Darnold. How do we get a quarterback in 2025? So yes, that would be the worst possible scenario for the Minnesota Vikings. And this is why I believe that over the next few weeks, they're coming up with avenues upon avenues and scenarios upon scenarios to make sure that they do not get left out of this party without a quarterback. And there's so much to consider so much, uh, you know, that they're going to have to try to find
Starting point is 00:14:19 out about where other teams are going, which teams could draft the quarterback, how much they want at the top. Is it too much? And then what do you do? Like there's, this thing is just filled with intrigue, but if you got to the end of the drafts first night and the Vikings did not have a quarterback, Oh, wow. I cannot imagine that post draft podcast that we would be talking about. Then what they would have to be thinking about is a, can Sam Darnold actually get you to the playoffs like Baker Mayfield? That is not impossible, but in this division, it would be very difficult for Sam Darnold to get the Vikings to the post season unless they had a lot of things go right. And if Darnold had a really big turnaround, but even the Baker Mayfield turnaround in a bad division only got
Starting point is 00:15:05 the bucks to nine wins. There are not many examples throughout history of players like Sam Darnold suddenly becoming really good. Usually if you're drafted high, then if you're actually good, you'll get opportunity upon opportunity and you'll come through at some point. So far with Carolina didn't really do that. There were shades, but not really on a consistent basis. Otherwise they wouldn't have gotten Baker Mayfield and tried that route and not played Darnold until the end of the season. My expectations for him are, like you said, about seven and 10, then the pressure will be extremely, extremely high on them to get a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:15:45 That's where more likely than not, you're trying to look at someone like Dak Prescott because at least as of right now, Dak Prescott is not signing a contract extension, which puts him into the Kirk Cousins category. You're looking at veterans. You're looking at guys who have won games with their teams before and hoping you can find somebody who is better than Sam Darnold in this scenario that you're laying out, because I don't think you have time to draft a quarterback. If you go seven and 10, if it's back to back seven and 10 seasons, and then you draft a
Starting point is 00:16:17 quarterback, you probably have 2025 and that's it. And it's very hard to win with a rookie. Are they going to run back sam darnold like this scenario is the apocalypse as you mentioned it's bad it's bad it is very bad if it ends up this way and they don't have another clear-cut answer and then you're just hoping that someone else gives you their kirk cousins and this is how kirk cousins ends up always kind of showing up because it's hard to draft quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:16:46 It's hard to find free agents. They're not available very often and trying to look down the road in the future. I can't think of too many other quarterbacks who are about to become available after next season, the way that Tom Brady once did, or even Matthew Stafford. And sometimes we're surprised by that, but I just feel like in 2025, it's a lot harder to draft the quarterback and not always five or six guys who are good. Sometimes it's a one quarterback draft and that's it. And you can't really bet on that. So I guess my answer is, I don't know. I have no idea. And I think all of you should hope that that doesn't happen. That is not a very plausible scenario though, considering that they had a very good idea.
Starting point is 00:17:31 Kirk cousins was going to go. Uh, they have had an eye on this quarterback class for a while. They've already acquired additional draft capital. It just seems that they're doing everything and anything to make sure that your apocalypse does not come to fruition. Midwest Schwab says the trade up could depend on Washington and who they take at number two. Could Washington hint to the Vikings who they want? So Minnesota knows to trade at three or four. Do those conversations happen? Not now. Like Washington is not calling the Vikings and saying, wink, wink, nod, nod. Hey, it's going to be Daniel. So you guys are good. Go ahead, make your trade up because Washington's in the NFC too. So they would only do something like that if it would benefit them. And that's the part
Starting point is 00:18:20 to consider is on draft night, it could benefit Washington. Say if the Vikings traded up to number four, then Washington can say, we'll trade back with you. So maybe there would be a discussion of, Hey, Washington, we want to get up to number two. If we got four, would you swap two with us? If we gave you an additional first round pick. So that is the only situation where I could think Washington would show their cards is say that they actually want JJ McCarthy, but they think the Vikings want Drake May. So then Washington says to the Vikings, Hey, look, you get up to four,
Starting point is 00:18:58 then we'll give you two. That's showing their cards that they don't want Drake May. And instead they want, you know, maybe JJ McCarthy, assuming that's the actual order of things. Uh, I do recall believing Sam Darnold was going to be the number one pick and it ended up going to Baker Mayfield. So we have been surprised in the past about the actual order. Everyone thought that San Francisco wanted Mac Jones, remember? And then they end up with Trey Lance shocking the world. So they could take McCarthy number two. McCarthy could end up at number 11. We don't really know, which is what makes this whole thing so interesting, but that is the only situation where I could actually see the Vikings hearing from Washington about what they want to do. As of right now, they're going to
Starting point is 00:19:45 leave the Vikings in the dark because it gives them no advantage to tell the Vikings what they're going to do. And their hope is that they're going to see the Vikings in the playoffs someday. So they don't want to lend you a hand unless it really benefits them draft capital wise, because if they were moving from four to two, getting an additional first round pick and the quarterback they wanted, then they're going to look like geniuses in Washington. JT asks, wondering where you would rank the Vikings offense in comparison to teams that have drafted first round quarterbacks in recent memory. Well, I just so happen to have the list in front of me. So let's take a look. Let's run down the last one, two, three, four drafts for how the Vikings stack up as far as their overall supporting cast that they can give
Starting point is 00:20:33 their new quarterback, assuming that they get one. So let's start out while Bryce Young, obviously the Vikings are better. CJ Stroud, the Vikings are clearly better in hindsight. If we go back or yeah, I mean, sorry, let me phrase this correctly. They, uh, if we go back to the moment CJ Stroud was drafted, no one would have said that the Texans were a good place for him. It just turned out that way. So in hindsight, it looks closer to even because of their coach, Bobby Sloic, who was really good last year. Nico Collins became a star. Tank Dell was good for them. Hindsight, it looks closer to even because of their coach, Bobby Slowik, who was really good
Starting point is 00:21:05 last year. Nico Collins became a star. Tank Dell was good for them. Dalton Schultz was good for them as their tight end. Their offensive line is pretty solid and has some good players on it. They turned out to be a really good situation that we did not project, but I'll say that's close to even with the Vikings. Maybe the Vikings slight edge just because Jefferson is one of the greatest receivers to ever start a career so far. Slight edge to the Vikings, but fairly close with the Texans. Anthony Richardson, I think their coach fits well with him, but their wide receivers, their offensive line, just okay. Not exceptional in my opinion. So I would say the Vikings are better than that, but coach
Starting point is 00:21:46 quarterback relationship, very strong with Anthony Richardson, 2021, Kenny Pickett, the only first round quarterback, not anywhere close to what the Vikings have right now. Matt Canada, their offensive coordinator was in over his head. They didn't have a great running game. They didn't have a great offensive line. They had some receivers with maybe personality issues. So yeah, first receivers ever with personality issues, by the way, in Pittsburgh. But I don't think it was a great spot for Kenny Pickett with the offensive coordinator considered. They eventually had to fire him. The receivers are good, but not on the level of the Vikings. So yeah, easily better. Trevor Lawrence landed on one of the worst spots I've ever seen in his first year. And it's remarkable that he's even become what he is right now, considering Urban Meyer.
Starting point is 00:22:34 The Jets, not good for Zach Wilson. The 49ers are the one I could clearly say were better than the Vikings. 2021 bringing in Trey Lance. Did not work out for Trey Lance, but clearly great offensive line. Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds to ever be in the NFL and receivers all over the place. Yeah. I mean, that was a great spot for Trey Lance just did not work out, worked out for somebody else that they drafted and boosted the heck out of Brock Purdy Justin Fields extremely extremely bad situation a coach trying to save his job didn't have much
Starting point is 00:23:11 for weapons then a coaching change a GM change they tank just very hard on Justin Fields to succeed Mac Jones also terrible following Tom Brady takes them to the playoffs, and then they get coaching changes, and they lose receivers, and just not good for Mac Jones. So clearly all of those better situations for the Vikings. Joe Burrow now and Tua are both interesting because they eventually became what the Vikings are. So Joe Burrow in his first year, not so great, but by his second year, he's got Jamar Chase and he's got a coach in Zach Taylor who comes from
Starting point is 00:23:51 the same exact place that Kevin O'Connell went to. This is kind of comparable, I think, in what Joe Burrow will land on in year two is what the Vikings can give a guy in year one who they're drafting. And the same for Tua, where it's actually year three that Tua ends up getting Mike McDaniel. He ends up getting all the receivers, the Tyreek Hill, and ends up with a really good offense to work with. And that's when he took that big step is under Mike McDaniel. So he's got the offensive-minded coach, everything around him.
Starting point is 00:24:22 Justin Herbert, not ideal at all, has battled through that, but a coaching change, a coach that failed, maybe one receiving weapon, not good running games. It's been a tough ride and bad defenses for Justin Herbert, still a good quarterback. And Jordan Love, ultimately ideal, super ideal for Jordan Love to sit, to develop, and to join the team when it was young and upcoming and be their leader. And then I'll include Jalen Hurts' second round pick in this, that by year three, Jalen Hurts was similar to what a quarterback is going to get with the Minnesota Vikings. So I think what that tells you is over the last, what's that, four drafts,
Starting point is 00:25:01 that the Vikings would be number two on that list for supporting cast that they can give their quarterback. Number one, it didn't work out for the guy they picked in the first round and they still ended up in the Superbowl eventually. So yeah, the Vikings are a very ideal spot. I think a lot of these quarterbacks should be kind of hoping and praying that they end up in purple considering who they get to throw to and who they get to have as their head coach. Hey, U.S. cellular customers, I've got good news. So don't hit that skip forward button just yet. I'm talking about their special customer event, Us Days. What's Us Days? It means exclusive offers just for their customers, just to say thanks.
Starting point is 00:25:49 Like up to $1,200 to upgrade to any new phone. No, I didn't misread that. That's up to $1,200 off. They must really like you all. Us days at U.S. Cellular, exclusive offers just for you, just to say thanks. Right now, U.S.s cellular customers get up to twelve hundred dollars to upgrade to any new phone terms apply richard who sent an email says hypothetical what are your thoughts if chicago doesn't take caleb williams at number one well my thoughts are i'd be pretty surprised let's start my thoughts are I'd be pretty surprised.
Starting point is 00:26:26 Let's start out with that. I'd be pretty shocked because a lot of times we will try to talk ourselves into some other scenario being plausible because there's a lot of time between free agency and the draft. I personally would really love if the draft was right after the owners meetings and we could just get through this thing, but then, you know, we wouldn't have all the hype and the lead up. But as we go up to it, there has to be debates and discussions of, could it actually be someone else? Could it be Drake May? Could it be Jaden Daniels? So it is altogether possible. The Chicago bears have not come out and said, and announced because the NFL
Starting point is 00:27:05 doesn't want them to, Hey, we are actually picking Caleb Williams or maybe we're not picking Caleb Williams. So there will be intrigue until the day of the draft. But if they actually went to the podium or Roger did, and Goodell said they pick Jaden Daniels, I would be,
Starting point is 00:27:23 I'd fall over my chair. Caleb Williams has been the presumptive number one overall pick for two years. He has talent that is truly just higher than any of the other quarterbacks in this draft class. And well, throughout the year, I have been a little bit up and down, hot and cold on Caleb Williams overall. As a prospect, you just cannot deny the skills that this man has the ability to throw the football from all sorts of different angles the running ability the accuracy when he throws from a clean pocket is just absolutely fantastic
Starting point is 00:27:58 so there is a lot to fix in his game from college to the NFL, but I really truly would be shocked, not just because the draft analysts think so. And you know, everybody's mocking him number one, but because I think he is the most talented player that the Chicago bears could get and develop going forward. But if there was some crazy red flag that caused Caleb Williams to not be picked number one, what would happen is he would be picked number two. I just can't see anyone letting him drop past number three, number four, and nobody is trading with the Minnesota Vikings to let them have him. And I don't think things would play out crazy different because there's already a really good chance that the Washington commanders are taking Drake May at
Starting point is 00:28:45 number two anyway, and the Vikings are going to have to fight for number three or four. I guess it would, if May was number one, take them out of the mega deal up to get number three, unless they also loved Caleb Williams. I don't know. I mean, you're talking about total and complete and utter chaos that probably would result in the same thing we expect for the Vikings. I mean, everyone would be scrambling. Everyone would be shocked. The Chicago newspapers would have to rewrite their pre-written stories about him being
Starting point is 00:29:17 drafted at the very top. But I don't think that that would change a ton about the Vikings because I still have the sense that the Patriots are going to keep their pick and draft quarterback. So the order would just be different from what we thought it was going to be, but the same result of the Vikings having to get to number four or number five. But again, it would be totally, totally shocking. And look, it's, it wouldn't be the only time that it's ever happened and somehow over the final month leading up to the draft uh Aiden Hutchinson became the number two pick and not the number one picks it's not that it's never happened before that the presumptive number one
Starting point is 00:29:56 was not actually the guy taken it's just that this has seemed so written in stone and a lot of winking and nodding from Chicago people. This is why they moved on from Justin Fields. I don't know if they do that just for some other prospects in this draft. Williams is on that next level of prospect. That doesn't mean he'll succeed, but he is on that next level. So great hypothetical though. It would be, it would be the ultimate evidence that we never really know until draft night, right?
Starting point is 00:30:25 This one comes from Chris who says, doesn't it seem crazy to potentially trade multiple first round picks for the third or fourth quarterback in this draft? It seems crazy to move that much capital. So every situation has its nuances and its details. And the fourth best quarterback in some drafts is taken in the second round. And then the fourth best quarterbacks in other drafts might turn out to be the best quarterback of anybody picked. Or in the case of say, you know, 2018 Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP. He was QB number five. There have been QB number fours, five sixes who have become the best quarterback in the draft. But if your quarterback that you're
Starting point is 00:31:13 taking is worth trading up, it's worth trying to get to the fourth overall pick. That would have to mean that the Vikings believe that that guy say it's McCarthy or it's Drake May is the caliber of prospect that can become a true franchise QB in their eyes, in everything that Kevin O'Connell sees that that guy is not just going to be someone you kind of like, and maybe he can work out. No, no, no. You have to be all, all in. And when teams have been all, all in and you're drafting in the top 10, your odds are just different from a QB four that's 25th. Uh, Lamar Jackson is a bit of an outlier here. Usually if you get past the 15th pick, there's not that many success stories. There's a lot more of Brandon Whedon's and Kenny Pickett's than there are Lamar Jackson's. So, I mean, if somebody is
Starting point is 00:32:05 dubbed as a very high top five, top 10 caliber draft pick, I don't think the odds are that much different from number two to number four. Now, number one overall has a pretty decent history outside of a handful of guys, but at number two, number three, number four, how big is the gap? Actually, if that's where they're being picked and that's what you're investing as far as prospect caliber, it's not going to be that much between QB two and QB four. So to that end, that means that QB four would have to be a great prospect. But the other aspect of this is what the Vikings can give to the guy that they're drafting. Normally teams that are drafting
Starting point is 00:32:46 at the top are putting their quarterback into a situation where they need linemen, they need receivers, they need coaching, they need almost everything. Most of the time it's that way because these teams tanked to get to the top. So now their cupboards are empty. That is not the case with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have players that they have drafted in the first round and have developed into stars on the offensive side. I mean, think about all their talent. It's all first round draft picks, right? Jefferson, Addison, Hawkinson, Derrissaw, and then a second round draft pick for Brian O'Neill. These guys are all highly drafted players who have been built through the years. It's just not under this regime, but through the years to be ready for this type of
Starting point is 00:33:33 situation, normally to get those players, you would have to use first round draft picks, but they already did in the past. So they are in a spot where they can sacrifice the future to get this quarterback and not be destroyed as an organization because of it. And that's one of the reasons I think that other than just randomness and luck, that there are those notable, Hey, this team traded up. The guy went bust. The franchise was ruined.
Starting point is 00:33:58 Well, in this case, uh, they already have those players rather than the teams that had it go wrong where they didn't have the players to put the teams that had it go wrong, where they didn't have the players to put around their quarterback and then didn't have draft capital to get them. And I think about when Sean McVay got to the Rams and they did this through free agency, but there's some comparable nature there where they got Robert Woods, they got Sammy Watkins, they ended up drafting Cooper Cup. They got Todd Gurley, who was great in the backfield. They signed Andrew Whitworth and they put this great team around Jared Goff from the beginning of the time that Sean McVay got there.
Starting point is 00:34:36 There's a lot of examples of that, but usually it takes either big free agent dollars or draft capital and the Vikings have spent the draft capital to set it up. So I don't look at it as crazy where they are right now. I think some other teams would be out of their mind to try to make a similar trade, but I think the Vikings can do it and not have it totally blow up in their face. And they will still have the free agent dollars in the future to fill the holes that are still open. So I'm into it. I'm totally okay with a trade up here, but in different scenarios through Vikings history, I wouldn't have been on different situations that they've been in. Ryan asks, wouldn't all
Starting point is 00:35:17 the rookie QBs prefer to land with the Vikings? Vikings at number four, New England trying to draft Drake May at number three. Couldn't he say, yeah, no, thanks. Not playing for you. I just don't think we're going to see that happen again because the landscape is so much different from when Eli Manning pulled it. And I also think what played into that was that the chargers were just fine with getting Phillip Rivers. into that was that the chargers were just fine with getting Philip rivers. Uh, I mean, I don't know how fine, uh, new England would be if they were trying to draft their guy with swapping him
Starting point is 00:35:51 for somebody else. Uh, also with the rookie wage scale, the way the collective bargaining works now, as opposed to then it's not like a holdout would go very good for a rookie quarterback. And the other thing is too, that teams turn around so quickly, they rise and fall so quickly. I mean, if you go back, of course, Elway was looking at a Baltimore Colts team that not too long after that left for Indianapolis. And then, you know, you look at even where the chargers were versus the New York giants. I mean, the chargers had been pretty much a giant flaming wreck like no nfl team now is anywhere close to the wreckage of teams of the past the money the
Starting point is 00:36:34 ownership it's really smoothed this out and so even like trevor lawrence joe burrow there was discussions of hey will those guys say no to the Bengals, to the Jaguars? And because it's happened ever so rarely a couple of times throughout history, then it always gets brought up and it never comes to fruition. The same thing with Caleb Williams in Chicago. It just never comes to fruition anymore because within a year or two, that quarterback can be the centerpiece of the reason a team turned around. So I, yes, would Drake may rather become a Minnesota Viking. He would, but I don't think
Starting point is 00:37:12 he's going to try to use any leverage that he can muster, which as far as I could see is nothing. I just don't think you have any leverage when you're drafted to try to force your way out. A team would only do that if they were totally fine with it. Like if they, there could be something crazy where you draft Drake may knowing the Vikings want them and then try to trade Drake may on draft night, but we never even see something like that in the NFL. But the first part of your question,
Starting point is 00:37:38 wouldn't all the rookie quarterbacks prefer to land with the Vikings. If we go through the teams that could draft quarterbacks, let's have a look. I mean, I think Chicago is actually a good spot. It's not as good as the Vikings, but DJ Moore changes this, uh, and their offensive line. They've put some capital into, but it's not as good as the Vikings because of Kevin O'Connell versus Matt Eberflus, a defensive minded coach. And they still don't have their version of Jordan Addison or TJ Hawkinson. So it's not bad, but it's not great. Washington is not great.
Starting point is 00:38:11 I think that Terry McLaurin helps, but again, not a Justin Jefferson. That organization is just kind of coming out of this horrific time in their history. So no, New England is the biggest disaster out there. That's a no. And even someone like the Denver Broncos, do you really want to go play for Sean Payton right now in an organization that has just failed with quarterback after quarterback? So yeah, I mean, the Vikings are, it's not really particularly close far and away. I just have a very tough time thinking we'll ever see what happened with Eli Manning happen ever again in the NFL, or at least not for a long time.
Starting point is 00:38:49 Definitely not this year, but I'm sure the Drake May is rooting to become a Minnesota Viking rather than a New England Patriot. Nick says, do you think that the reason the Vikings haven't made their big trade up yet in part is they're trying to box out any of the other teams looking to trade up as well. Well, I think what it kind of comes down to is if you're the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals, why do you have to do this now? Like you're not under any pressure. Deadlines make deals in the NFL and you don't have a deadline that's anywhere close. So if you're the Patriots, just for example,
Starting point is 00:39:26 let's put ourselves in the Patriots' shoes. If you're Robert Kraft, if you are Elliott Wolfe, if you are Gerard Mayo, you're probably talking like, look, we very likely want to draft a quarterback unless somebody goes berserk, nuts, three first-rounders plus, then we'll have to consider it because we still like quarterback number two all right uh whatever it might be so if you're trading three then a quarterback number b for them might be their backup plan michael pennix let's just say right that's their backup
Starting point is 00:39:57 plan if they were to trade down and maybe they don't have that big of a difference between pennix and you know i don't know, Drake may or whatever. And they really wanted Daniels, but they think Washington's going to take him, but they can just sit and wait and say, you know what? We'll still take our guy at number three, unless somebody goes crazy. And the Vikings are saying, all right, guys, let's be reasonable. Let's give you just the two first, a 2025 third rounder. And let's just get this deal done.
Starting point is 00:40:23 Hey, and the Patriots are going, I don't know. I really want a 2025 first rounder. And let's just get this deal done. Hey, and the Patriots are going, I don't know. I really want a 2025 first rounder. And the same thing goes for Arizona. I really want that extra pick. So how desperate are the Vikings going to get? Here comes draft night. It's Caleb Williams off the board.
Starting point is 00:40:38 It's Jaden Daniels off the board. The Vikings really want Drake May. They make that phone call and say, all right, we really want our guy. Let's accept your call and say, all right, we really want our guy. Let's accept your offer. Let's give you everything we have. That's what I think is the holdup is that the Patriots want to squeeze every last ounce
Starting point is 00:40:56 out if they are truly considering trading. The holdup also might be that these teams aren't trading or they just want to stay because it's really favorable for them, including Arizona to stay. And the Vikings are going to use this next month to talk them out of it. There's lots of other potential explanations for the holdup, but my guess is it's just because they don't have to, they can wait and wait and wait until the very last minute. And the value of those picks does not go down. The value of the number three pick and what it's going to cost the market does not go down between now and draft night. If it did,
Starting point is 00:41:31 then that might change the math, but it doesn't. So that's my explanation for it. Folks, if you don't know what a VPN is, you might actually need one and not even realize it. If you already know the positives, you also might not be using the right product. In either case, you want to check out Surfshark. VPNs keep your information safe and anyone who tries to track what you're doing online will not be able to do so if you are using Surfshark. IP addresses, what you're searching, what games you're playing or what shows you're streaming will belong to you and you only.
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Starting point is 00:42:33 Can't see a YouTube video because of your location? Use Surfshark VPN. Can't access that one website to buy limited edition sneakers? Use Surfshark VPN. Try Surfshark today totally risk-free with a 30-day money-back guarantee get surf shark vpn at surf shark dot deals slash purple insider enter the promo code purple insider for three extra months for free you heard me right three extra months for free that is surf me right. Three extra months for free. That is surf shark dot deals slash purple insider. Jacob asks with this Caleb Williams stuff, it has me wondering, would coaches be worried if he can lead a locker room could shake up our perception of the draft? Well, there's going to be concerns about Caleb Williams and his
Starting point is 00:43:26 personality. And I noticed that the bears said something like his teammates really love him. So they're already trying to put out there, Hey, this is not a true narrative. There were times throughout this season where I wondered about Caleb Williams and how he would handle adversity. Now I saw some other stuff that I don't even want to get into, like he's got a certain color of a cell phone case. Man, that's just crazy. Nobody cares. Nobody cares in an NFL locker room about painting fingernails
Starting point is 00:43:57 or having a certain color phone case or whatever. The quarterback can be as strange as he wants to be, and it will not matter as long as he's good at football. I promise you that. From Joe Namath to Kirk Cousins, like Joe Namath, think about how boisterous he was and how out there. I remember there was a story on NFL Films that they told the Jets players, do not do anything to motivate the Indianapolis Colts before the Super Bowl. And Joe Namath came out and made a guarantee and then won. And so, hey, no one was ever mad at Joe Namath ever again, right?
Starting point is 00:44:33 He became an icon. Had they lost, people would have been upset with Joe Namath. And this goes for all the way up to Kirk Cousins. When the Vikings were not winning, then Kirk Cousins drew a lot of the ire of like, Hey, he's not a leader. His personality is different. The guy shops at Kohl's he's not an alpha dog. And then they won games. And all of a sudden he became Kirko chains and he's taking off his shirt, putting chains around him, dancing, partying, whatever. It's just, that's really the nature of the beast is if they buy into this guy's play on the field
Starting point is 00:45:07 then everyone will be fine with whatever he does and there have been lots of quarterbacks by the way who have done way worse and more questionable stuff that off the field and yet still took their teams to super bowls or deep in the playoffs or we're great. And look, the players are there to do their job. All the other players are there to do their job. It's not high school. These are contractors who are paid to show up and try to win football games. And if they are winning, then guess what? Everybody gets paid more. You go to the hall of fame. If you're a great player and you win a super bowl, right? But if you have a bad quarterback, everybody looks bad. So it will be entirely determined by Caleb Williams play. And what happens usually with leadership, I think is
Starting point is 00:45:55 command of the offense is the leadership. Are you in total control? Also, Hey, by the way, we should mention like Cam Newton and the way that he dressed. He took a team to the Super Bowl. He was an MVP. Like, I don't think players in the locker room are like, I don't know, weird hat. I can't play for him. Or coaches the same way. Coaches know if a guy's great, it's immortality. They're going to deal with eccentricities to a player.
Starting point is 00:46:18 What it comes down to for me is, can Caleb Williams make sure he's not pinning blame when things go wrong on other people? Or that he's not running away and hiding like he did away from the media after one of those games? Or can he not melt down in the locker room after they lose, as he did on the sideline after a couple of those losses in college? And people get older,
Starting point is 00:46:38 and I think that those difficult times help, and he's going to be more mature. And it's something, though, still to watch is how he matures and handles it. Same with Baker Mayfield, but another great example, Baker Mayfield, when he won 11 games, everyone loved the act. They love the commercials. And then the next year he was a problem. So it usually depends totally on the results and leadership in my mind at the highest, highest level, is not about being loved. It's really about, do you get everybody lined up?
Starting point is 00:47:08 Do you know every detail of your offense? Are you the guy that when the team is down two touchdowns is still playing the same way and not freaking out and not losing his mind out there like he kind of did in some college games that didn't go well for him? So those are the things that he has to develop, not whether he, I don't even want to address. It's just the things that he has to develop. Not whether he, I don't even, I don't even want to address it. It's just so ridiculous. I don't even want to
Starting point is 00:47:29 talk about any, and some of those ridiculous, just absurd questions about Caleb Williams. Let's make sure that we keep like the right things in mind as we're evaluating this. There's a lot of unique personalities in sports. People are allowed to be themselves as long're evaluating this. There's a lot of unique personalities in sports. People are allowed to be themselves as long as you win. On to Dave's question. What are the chances that another team is going to beat the Vikings to the punch in trading up for a quarterback like what happened to the Wolves with Darius Garland and Jarrett Culver? You know, you can let that one go because the Wolves are really, really good. So all's well that ends well with that. But to your point, if it's the New York giants, if it's a Denver Broncos and they get ahead
Starting point is 00:48:12 of the Vikings, this is where they have to have options that they're comfortable with. And they have to have sort of tiers of options of our tier one option, our number one favorite thing to do. And I'm just throwing these out there. I don't know these, but let's just say number one favorite thing to do is trade up for Drake May and give up three firsts. Our number two favorite thing to do is trade, not three firsts and get to number four. Our number three favorite thing to do is draft Dallas Turner and wait for Bo Nix because we like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. We like him and we like him close enough to the guys at the top to be comfortable building a successful team around him. And we like him enough in the meeting rooms for Kevin O'Connell to be
Starting point is 00:48:56 happy with him. And if they get locked out, they need to have that backup plan. And they called it flexibility with number 11 and 23. We all know what they actually want, which is to trade up. That's what they want. It's very clear, but flexibility, that word kept being used. I think because there is that possibility that what you're laying out there happens and the other draft pick would do what? That would give you a quarterback's fifth Dallas Turner or Jared verse or someone really, really good at the top of the draft defensively as well. The bigger concern is if they did get to that point, they say, let's get the defensive player and wait for Nick's at 23.
Starting point is 00:49:55 And then they're shocked and someone else takes him. And then you're sitting there with some very big worries about the future and what to do and probably drafting Spencer Rattler in the fourth and really praying. So if they are beat to the punch at the top with the trade, that's not the end of the world, as long as they still walk out of the first night of the draft with that quarterback, because I think that the prospects are good enough. You're going to hear draft analysts criticize every single one of these guys,
Starting point is 00:50:24 but by the end of the college football season, did any of you, and I don't mean the national championship game, but like, did any of you walk away thinking, man, if Michael Penix played for the Vikings, it would be the worst thing ever. Like, I didn't think that I thought, wow, this guy looks like he would be pretty good fit with the Vikings. So they need to have those multiple options, but because this draft is structured the way it is, this is probably why they were talking about targeting it as really liking this draft to allow Kirk cousins to leave and why they didn't go crazy offering him because they knew that even in your scenario, they would have somebody that they were comfortable with.
Starting point is 00:51:02 This one comes from Matt says, I have to think extensions for Kweisi and Kevin are almost or mostly a done deal. KOC can clearly coach quarterbacks. Apart from the first draft picks, I think Kweisi's moves have been solid. They could do it next year going into,
Starting point is 00:51:19 because you don't want the lame duck year, but they could wait till year three and then sign them to extensions. After that, I have no problem with the Wilfs waiting to see how it all comes together, waiting through draft night and so forth. But yeah, I mean, the thing about extensions is it's more about to go back to Kirk cousins, famous quote. It's more about what they represent than what they actually are because nobody is anything more than year to year in the NFL. But if you let somebody get to a lame duck year, that means the pressure is on and that becomes a storyline, but they could let
Starting point is 00:51:58 it play out through this year and decide how they feel. I think when you're drafting a quarterback and you're as bold as to let Kirk Cousins go and let Daniil Hunter go and follow along with this path that everybody agreed with, you have to give it at least a couple of years to play out. And so they should. Yes. If it's me right now, I'm comfortable after they get their quarterback in the draft that they have to execute the final part of this plan as a front office, especially. It's less O'Connell than it is Kweisi with this part.
Starting point is 00:52:29 But after they execute that part, then you got to give them contract extensions, at least to have that represent belief and co-signing. Because if they sign them to extensions, that's the ownership saying, yes, we love this direction. We agree. They can say it out loud, as Wilfs did at the owner's meetings. They can say, yeah, we love it.
Starting point is 00:52:50 But an extension would say that they love it even more usually though. So it's year three of a four year deal. Usually though it's after that third year before the fourth year that they would do the extension. Like when they're going into the lame duck year, I think it's a good idea to give a total cosine for what that looks like and what that means to say, yep, we're going to extend you a couple of years out, but they don't really have to do it until the following season. So if they want to wait, that's okay to see how next year plays out. It's just that if you were to draft a quarterback, play Sam Darnold, go seven and 10, it might feel a little bit more like what kind of extension are you going to give here? Is it
Starting point is 00:53:36 going to be long? Is it going to be like only two more years? Is there going to be some big negotiation? So you could do it earlier, but I think we should wait and see through the draft and let that play out. But if they were to extend them early, that would be okay because you need space. You need time. You need people feeling like they're not under the gun. And that is important in the NFL, even though everyone knows that you are getting the co-sign from ownership is pretty important. But if I had to guess, I would say that story doesn't happen until like the NFL combine next year is when they'll probably get an extension if ownership is happy. So thanks for all the questions. Great stuff.
Starting point is 00:54:16 More of these episodes to come purpleinsider.com go to contact us. That's where you can hit me up anytime and at Matthew collar on Twitter to be a part of the fans only questions. So thanks everybody for watching and we will catch you next time.

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