Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Does Kellen Mond have a good arm? And let's be reasonable about rookies with CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso

Episode Date: May 17, 2021

Matthew Coller and CBS Sports draft analyst Chris Trapasso answer two questions from a listener that are interesting. 1) Whether Kellen Mond's arm should be considered as very good 2) What we should expect from Ezra Cleveland, the guard. Plus they talk about reasonable expectations for Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones and talk about the best bet for rookie of the year being Rashod Bateman. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good evening and welcome to the NFL Draft. Draft season is here. Come on, come on. There you go. To break down every need. They're not going to pick a quarterback. They need offensive linemen. They need defense.

Every pro day. He had a phenomenal pro day. Explosive, really good in the three cone, the broad jump. And every mock. You could probably tell me if you think the Vikings would actually do it. I can tell you as a draft analyst that they absolutely should. Welcome to the Chris Trapasso Draft Show on Purple Insider. This is a good podcast to listen to leading into the draft.

Hello, welcome to another Chris Trapasso D show matthew collar your host here on purple insider as always and from cbs sports draft analyst chris trapasso i think this is our last official chris trapasso draft show it will not be the last time we get together for sure but we wanted to go a couple of weeks past the draft, Chris, to analyze it all. So how are you, sir? Are you taking in all of the little clips from rookie mini camps that show these rookie quarterbacks slinging it around? Yeah, definitely. I was just telling you before we started recording how much I think everyone has a huge hunger to see actual football. And I'm in that group. I try not to take too much from Rookie Minicamp,

but just signing on to Twitter over the weekend and seeing actual NFL helmets with even throws against air was actually a delight after the draft because we're in this kind of hangover period after the draft. You're like, oh, what do we talk about now? So the fact that we have some R mini camps to discuss is better than nothing. And we're going to hit a dry period for about a month and a half before training camp. So it was nice seeing these rookies on the field in their new uniforms for sure. And last year we did not have the benefit of doing that.

So it feels it does feel very nice of saying like, oh, okay. All right. There's Kellen Mond in a Vikings Jersey. That's kind of cool for fans to see him out there and see tweets of him throwing a couple of footballs and such. And now for me, I only saw seven on sevens for, I don't know, a dozen reps. So I can't sit here and say, wow, Christian Darasaw looks like a giant guy who's drafted high or whatever. I mean, I don't know what to tell you. I mean, even watching receivers running routes in shorts and things like that, there have been past years where Mike Zimmer has talked about how this guy

or that guy looked great in rookie mini camp and it meant absolutely nothing. So usually we have to wait until mini camp, which is usually in the middle of June. And then that gives us a bit of an idea of where everyone stands to start training camp and training camp. That's when we can really tell you on a day-to-day basis. Um, but I've, I've got some fun things to ask you, Chris, about sort of best bets and reasonable expectations for this year's draft class. But I got two very good questions emailed to me that i wanted to get your opinion on from a loyal listener aaron um i'll just start with the first one he said he's heard differing opinions on whether kellen mon has a strong arm he says recall someone on this podcast calling it a

bazooka arm but also eric eager the other day suggested that he's not very good at throwing deep and doesn't have a great arm so he wants some clarity on that which I think is fair so your take on arm talent from Kellen Mond I don't think he has that strong of an arm I think it is probably NFL average at at times it can he can crank it up a little bit at the intermediate level, but I don't think in terms of accuracy or just the ability to stretch the field, I watched Kellen Mond's film and thought, this guy's going to be an amazing deep ball thrower in the NFL. And we know from Kirk Cousins, you don't have to have a huge arm to be a good passer 20-plus yards down the field.

Looking at my scouting notebook this year, Kellen Mond was tied with Kyle Trask from the Florida Gators who got drafted by the Buccaneers and just ahead of Mac Jones in terms of the quarterback prospects that I scouted with the weakest arms. So that to you, it's kind of important. I think that you've said that's a big qualifier for you. If a quarterback doesn't have the arm, then that almost disqualifies him. But I didn't think that any of those three quarterbacks had arms that would severely limit them at the NFL level. The difference, and it's good that you said arm talent, with Kellen Mond, I think his arm talent, which is, to me, the ability to throw on the run off platform when things are muddy inside the pocket I don't think that is it's probably not even NFL average but when he is

inside the pocket from a steady base I think that's when he can let it rip and fit it through a tight window on a 15 yard dig route where maybe someone that believes Kellen Mond has a bazooka was referencing watching a throw from a clean pocket. So fortunately, in this Vikings offense that is pretty quarterback friendly and he will have clean pockets, I like the way that the Vikings have built up this offensive line, maybe for Kellen Mond to take over at some point in 2022, or if Kirk Cousins is really bad this year,

that he will have a lot of those instances where he can show the higher end part of his arm strength. But arm talent like Matt Stafford kind of stuff, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, that's not, he's not that type of quarterback that can make those difficult, longer throws that need velocity when things aren't perfect with his lower half so here's why i love this question because i think that there's a lot of different layers to what makes for a great arm so for example at the combine

kirk cousins threw the ball harder velocity wise than deshaun watson and a bunch of other quarterbacks because he could stand in one spot and he could ramp it all up. Think about this way for like a shortstop or a catcher. If you're a shortstop or a catcher, you often have to make these throws on the move, right? But if you're an outfielder, you could catch the ball, you can crow hop and you can let it loose. And of course, an outfielder who's able to do that is going to be able to get everything in line and make the perfect throw. But when Kirk Cousins has to drift back or or roll out when it's not designed, run away from someone and contort his body and he can't throw off that platform, you can see that his pure arm strength is not impressive. But yet, if he could step into a ball, he can rip it down the field. And with Kellen Mann, it sounds like you're describing

the same sort of thing because at his pro day, Kellen Mann was really letting it fly. But when you watch him, I don't know if stiff stiff is one way people have described it. The way I might describe it is it's not getting the most out of his natural arm strength. So I think that if him and Kirk cousins were to wind up and throw the ball, he might throw it just as hard or harder, but it's that same sort of thing where if everything isn't working in conjunction, then he's not getting that extra juice on the ball. Because I think of his, I think it's his throwing technique more than it is his physical ability. Yeah. I was going to say that it's, it's very like mechanical. Like he was taught at some age, like, here's how you throw the ball.

And even now into his early twenties, it's like he's thinking of hitting all these checkpoints in his release instead of just letting it be natural. And there are some quarterbacks. Like I think to me, Aaron Rogers has one of the, just the most naturally strong arms. Like he never looks like he's exerting that much energy in, in the rest of his body and

he can let it rip 55 yards down the field or uh 25 yards down the seam with like the flick of his wrist i think mike vick would also be up there too if you want to go the throwback comparison so yeah i i think kellen mond is in the same range and and they're pretty close to what kirk cousins can do that there are times where Kirk Cousins looks like he has a pretty strong arm but those will be when the pocket is clean and he can almost take a little crow hop into the throw that's how I kind of felt with Kellen Mond I liked him as a prospect but it wasn't because of the strong arm it was the decision making the accuracy from zero to 19 yards down the field all the experience he, and that I think he has a little bit of athletic upside.

He's not a crazy natural playmaker. It's kind of the same with his athleticism. He has the athleticism there, but it's a little mechanical. But I think if you're at all excited about the future of Kellen Mond to potentially upgrading over Kirk Cousins, I think he has a little bit more athletic juice than what Cousins brings, but the arm strength is pretty similar. So I compared him athletically to someone like Ryan Tannehill, where he's not going to, you know, Russell Wilson, dodge three tacklers,

you know, start running all over the place and then throw a 50 yard bomb to somebody. It's more of, if he decides he's going to run and he puts the horse blinders on and takes off, he can get 20 yards because he is fast enough to do that. But you don't see Ryan Tannehill, like Ryan Tannehill, you know, comma playmaker. That's not who he is. So that's kind of the athletic ability that I think the Kellen Mon has, which it can be valuable because if he decides to take off, he's going to be good when he does that. But I just thought it was a great question about kind of that, you know, arm strength versus arm talent and how much he really has there. Yeah. One last thing on this.

And I think that Ryan Tannehill comparison in terms of his athleticism and his arm strength is actually almost spot on that Ryan Tannehill has a good arm, but I don't think anyone ever thinks it's one of the best in the league when he's running that play action bootleg base system in Tennessee and everything's perfect he can let it rip but the under pressure stuff it looks pretty weak it was the same in Miami early in his career and the in terms of athleticism we all would always hear about the fact that Ryan Tannehill was a wide receiver in college and that means he's a great athlete but you're right he's never going to have a 50-yard touchdown run or elude five defenders and like let it rip down the field and I think it's a similar parallel to Kellen Mond that he was a dual threat recruit at the quarterback spot he wasn't a pro style like

they call it and rivals in 24-7 he was someone that they believed could be like a legitimate runner at the college level. And he was that player early in his career. And I think it was the best for him that he learned how to win from the pocket later in his career that helped him get drafted in the third round. And just one more note too, uh, that the stat I really like about Kellen Mond is that he does not allow a lot of sacks. And I think that that would be a big difference between him and Kirk Cousins. So even if there is some loss in other areas, if we ultimately see Kellen Mond, who knows if we will or not.

But if there's some loss, that is a benefit. And keeping with the Ryan Tannehill comparison, Tannehill was only responsible for three of his own sacks, according to PFF last year, which was the second lowest in the league. So I think there may be, might be some parallels there. Now, let me give you the other question. Aaron writes, it appears now that certainly Ezra Cleveland is going to be a guard. However, all the experts that we have on the podcast, including offensive line experts, like Brandon Thorne, who, you know, they've all said that he should have been at least tried as a tackle. So he says he knows he's sort of beating a dead horse

that's been talked about a bit on the show, but he wants to understand why the Vikings saw Ezra Cleveland as a guard and not a tackle. And I'll just try to answer that first. I don't really know, Chris. I really don't. And we've asked, and we haven't really gotten an explanation. So your guess is as good as mine.

Yeah, it's very difficult. I we were talking about it before, too, that he was a player at six, six and three eleven with almost thirty four inch arms. In last year's draft class, one of the few offensive tackle prospects that I was like this guy is 100 a tackle he should not play guard at the next level but I think it because of that size at 6 6 3 11 there is a little bit of room to add more weight and uh to get a little bit stronger uh and more powerful in his lower half and probably uh it obviously worked out for the Vikings, the fact that they pick him in the second round and then come back the next year and get Christian Derrissaw in the first round, who truly, like you said, looks like a franchise left tackle, like in the NFL,

that maybe they just prioritize athleticism so much at all five offensive line positions where they said, hey, this guy, even for the tackle spot, is pretty athletic. Imagine how athletic he would be for the guard position. If we bulk him up to three 20, three 25, three 30, even his frame being six foot six could probably withstand that added weight without losing a lot of athletic juice, twitch off the snap. So, but I think, and again, you could,

this is probably a better question for the former offensive lineman you talked to and the experts that we know it's not a piece of cake to go from tackle to guard and even if you're already in the NFL especially too when you're going from a college offensive tackle inside to guard but he did get all the reps there last year he definitely just needs to add more weight and the one issue though more so than anything else is that at 6'6 he's pretty tall and he's playing against six foot six one six two defensive tackles on a regular basis he definitely needs to continue to get better at playing with good knee bend and actually that's one thing that I wrote in my scouting report. I just read it to myself last year that he did a good job, I thought, at left tackle at Boise State to not play high and not get out leveraged by even a 6'3 or a 6'4 edge rusher because he understood, hey, I'm tall and they're going to try to get up and under me.

So maybe they saw that. I'm just trying to kind of work my way into like what the thought process was here. Maybe they liked the fact that this wasn't a tall tackle who played high in his, his center of gravity was, was too high. And they figured,

Hey, with that natural ability or that awareness to get as low as possible, we see him as a guard. That's going to have to deal with a lot squatty or more compact defensive tackles. Right. Like you said, with Christian Derrissaw, he's a guard now. Ezra Cleveland is a guard. And so you're going to live and die with that decision to move him to guard. But it is a great observation by Aaron to say nobody who's come on the show has said oh yeah that makes sense and usually when we have these different things like whether it's the quarterback or anything else one guest will have this opinion

another guest will have that opinion but it's been universal where everyone said no no i don't really understand it and here's the concerning stat for me now i thought ezra cleveland was really good in the run game last year there especially were times where he and brian o'neill would get out in some space and it was it was something to watch because these are two of the most athletic offensive linemen you're going to find but if you go to pass blocking efficiency so that would be number of pass blocking snaps versus pressures allowed with a little bit more weighted towards sacks as a pro football focus thing dead last in the league was Dakota Dozier in terms of

pass blocking efficiency shocker right right behind him was Ezra Cleveland at number 47 so they were number 48 and 47 um and that's gonna that means there's a ways to go a long ways to go for Ezra Cleveland and pass protection. And you know, the Vikings play Aaron Donald this year. So like, it's not going to be easy at any point. Eddie Goldman's going to come back after opting out last year. Akeem Hicks is still here. Kenny Clark is still here. I mean, there's going to be lots of challenges still for the interior of the Vikings offensive line. So I think one of the biggest questions for this year, knowing that offensive lines are a weak link system is will Ezra Cleveland be a strength because he does have, I think one of the biggest questions for this year, knowing that offensive lines are a weak link system is will Ezra Cleveland be a

strength because he does have, I think a high upside, no matter where he plays or will he be a weakness because this continues. And I think Chris, you can tell me from your experience, I think it's hard to know that after just watching a rookie year. Yeah, definitely. And that's what I was going to say. And the Vikings have a prime example with Brian O'Neill, obviously not a change of position. But I came on your radio show after the what, the 2018 draft.

I picked Brian O'Neill and I was like, hey, I like this prospect, but he needs to get a lot bigger and a lot stronger. And he struggled right as a rookie. And then they got him in there in the strength and conditioning program. He's a lot bigger now. I think on previous episodes, you've mentioned that Brian O'Neal just looks physically bigger. Since you've been covering him, it looks like an NFL right tackle now. And maybe as a rookie, he still looked like a college blocker. That's probably part of it, too, with Ezra Cleveland. think hey we didn't switch Brian O'Neill's position but we bulked him up and we saw his play in those pressure or in those power situations against bull rushers uh get a lot better by year two I've always almost not like grading on a curve but with offensive line prospects even the really

good ones and the one that's the outlier is Tristan Wirfs they are all like none of them are ready to handle NFL defensive linemen's power as rookies none Andrew Thomas wasn't even Makai Becton who got a lot of fanfare he was a great run blocker last year he wasn't an amazing pass protector and he's 6'7 365 whatever he was it takes pretty much for every offensive lineman, regardless of if there's a position change or not, a full year to get NFL strong. And then if you have to add weight to that as well, and I think Ezra Cleveland will at 6'6 playing the guard position to play into the 320s, not 310, not 311, not 315,

it certainly takes some time. So I wouldn't be surprised because I really liked his pass protection at Boise State at tackle if he is better in that area. But you're absolutely right that playing some of those big, powerful defensive tackles in the NFC North really makes that a steep learning curve for any of these young players. And I think Ezra Cleveland is certainly the next in line to see if this Vikings kind of strength and conditioning program ultimately pays off and you mentioned the rebuild

of the offensive line and so at right tackle you have Brian O'Neill who's just a really good player and then you have question mark at right guard will Wyatt Davis jump right in question mark at center can Garrett Bradbury take another step question mark at left guard is Ezra Cleveland going to adapt his pass protection against some very tough question mark at left guard is Ezra Cleveland going to adapt his past protection against some very tough competition question at left tackle how quickly can Christian Derrissaw become a very good player and so a lot to keep an eye on with the offensive line I don't I don't think we could just say fixed on to the next thing like uh I think there's there's going to be some really interesting storylines going forward. So I wanted to ask you about reasonable expectations

for a lot of the top draft picks. Are you a Parks and Rec fan? Have you ever watched Parks and Rec? I have not. I'm in the minority that hasn't. I'm a big office guy, and I think we started to get into Parks and Rec, but I don't know what happened. We thought it was kind of funny.

I don't know why my wife and I didn't keep going with that but so just like the office the first season is pretty tough like you really have to fight your way through the first season but once it gets after that then it's good well there's a character jean ralphio who is one of my favorite tv characters ever on parks and rec and he always does a thing that people will recognize that i'm going to do before i ask you about every prospect i mean he doesn't say these words but he says it like this i was gonna say like let's be reasonable like you know if you watch parks and rec you'd get it and uh people who do will understand it um there's a gif you've maybe seen where he's like the worst and so

anyway yes i've i was gonna say i've definitely seen a lot of like clips like i know the character ron swanson i think that guy's hilarious um but that one i i wasn't in particularly uh didn't know that necessarily but okay well i'm gonna do it anyway so let's start let's just let's talk about trevor lawrence and let's be reasonable about Trevor Lawrence. And you could tell me what is a reasonable expectation for him this season? Are we talking stats? Are we talking Jaguars record? How would you judge it?

How would you judge a rookie quarterback's season? I think you have to go stats, not maybe the elementary stats, but like where his accuracy is. And I think a big thing, you mentioned it earlier with Kirk Cousins. I think judging a rookie quarterback's season to go a little off the beaten path and not just look at his elementary stats, how frequent, how often he takes sacks. Like what is his sack rate? I think over the test of time, we've seen that the really good quarterbacks don't get sacked very often, regardless of how good or bad their offensive line is.

And I think Trevor Lawrence, that will be one to watch with him because I don't think the Jaguars offensive line is very good. And I think he did take a lot of hits at, at Clemson. He's certainly going to be pressured more with the Jaguars than he was during his college career. And the skill position group is actually pretty good. So interesting to see what his sack rate is. If it's below 5% or 6%, which is right around, I believe, league league average that would be good for him because a lot

of rookies even the ones that we're almost quote-unquote sure are going to be really really good right away take a lot of sacks in their rookie year and it's not usually strictly due to their offensive line so if his sack rate is like below five or six percent and I don't know how I feel about that I could see it being a little bit higher because I think holding onto the football and being willing to stand in and take hits was one of the two weaknesses that I saw on film with Trevor Lawrence. As far as projecting it to wins and losses, I still think the Jag bit skeptical on Urban Meyer and his ego and Travis Etienne playing wide receiver that I think if that team gets to playing 17 games now six or seven wins I think six or seven wins would be reasonable and a sack rate right around league average, maybe a little bit higher, would be maybe not to the general population, but to me would be a very solid first season for Trevor Lawrence. But obviously the expectations and the bar is set so high for him.

But I think we need to temper a little bit of what we should expect him to come in and do right away. This is the thing too, about quarterback wins, which I always kind of stand up for a little bit, because if I told you the Jaguars went one in 16, how would you feel about Trevor Lawrence? You'd be like, Oh my God, that must mean he was an atrocity, right? If I told you they won 10, you would think, well, Trevor Lawrence must've been good then. Like we, without looking

at the most important thing and the most important thing connected to a quarterback how are we supposed to evaluate it because if he doesn't have great stats but they do well they win some games he he looks like he's got a lot of fight in his game to him plays situational football like you're gonna feel pretty good about him going forward if they lose every game that means he was atrocious right or or there's something wrong there if he had good stats and they lose every game so i i think you can kind of look at it and say what's a reasonable bar for him six seven eight wins get that team back to feeling like kind of like kyler murray did feeling like they're competitive again as opposed to oh you're playing the Jaguars that's an automatic W yeah man I'm so glad that you brought that up because it's kind of this uh

to me like a tired narrative on Twitter like wins aren't a quarterback stat but I kind of think they they are like I I truly believe that in most situations and maybe Vikings fans listening are like hey like Kirk Cousins hasn't been great, but the Vikings have had some good teams. You're right about that, that if the Jaguars go two and 15 this year, most likely Trevor Lawrence did not play good football. And if they win, if they exceed my expectations and win nine, 10 or 11 games, then Trevor Lawrence was a big part of that. And the central point to that is we all agree that quarterback is the most important position and it can change a team more than anything else. So then why would it not impact the team's wins and losses more than any

other position? I definitely think it does in the end though. I mean, obviously if the Jaguars win six or seven games, that doesn't mean that Lawrence was, he wasn't that good, but yeah, definitely bringing up the fact that like wins and losses do kind of matter. And even me being in Buffalo, Josh Allen's rookie season and no one really expected him to come in and start right away. So the expectations were a little different, or actually a lot different than Trevor Lawrence down the stretch.

When Josh Allen took over as the starter, the bills finished the season 6-10, but they went 3-3, and you could see that they went from like, oh, this is another really, really bad Bills team to, hey, they're actually pretty respectable. And even some of those losses, they were right in there, and like you said, Josh Allen maybe didn't have a high completion percentage or whatever, was throwing some interceptions, but there were also those high end plays. And I think that's why going into 2019, the bills were like, Hey, this is our guy. He, they get him wide receivers. They take the next step. And then last year he was an MVP candidate. So even it's a little bit that I believe that, that in a way wins are somewhat of a quarterback stat, but you're right.

Just seeing a team that plays more respectable and is playing in close games and seeing some of those flashes down the stretch. I think that is vital for any quarterback. And we did not see it from Josh Rosen. There were zero flashes from him. And to me, I think we've seen like one or two flashes from Sam Darnold, but everyone wants to still hang on to him as this next Ryan Tannehill. I don't know,

but I think you need to see some type of flash and some element of this guy as a rookie is elevating our team or that quarterback's probably just never going to be good in the NFL. Hey everyone. Anybody who listens to the show knows that Sam and I may not be scratch golfers, but we love to have a great time playing golf. And that's why we have partnered with Birdie Golf in Woodbury. Birdie Golf is hands down the best indoor golf experience you will ever have. There are eight of the world's best golf simulators

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Troy Aikman was one of them jared golf was like this to an atrocity of a situation where they were very much overwhelmed and they played you know poorly and lost a bunch of games and that didn't mean they were going to be a bust even peyton manning did not have a great first year it didn't mean he was going to be a bust but i think that what you start with is the record. And that helps you answer a lot of questions though, especially in the, in the longterm, in the short term, but even you could use it this way.

Cause I think here's the focus as well. This bad quarterback won a lot of games one year, this good quarterback didn't like the one year kind of thing, or some, some individual game where some quarterback plays horribly and gets a win. And they say, ah, well,

he gets a win, you know, or even this is where I feel bad for my buddy sage rosenfels he came in at halftime and came at a 20 point comeback one time his career didn't get credit for the win because the starter got it so you know it could be a little wonky but it all sort of ties back into it though right like it kirk cousins is a great example because if your record for over five six years with different circumstances and different players it ends up being kind of the same each year then we're asking well what would it take to go farther so Case Keenum is also a great example

of this what would it take for a team to have Case Keenum as their quarterback and go 13-3 well we found out the number one defense in the NFL, two elite wide receivers, a pro bowl tight end, a great running game, an offensive coordinator who was on fire, a good offensive lineman, a great defensive, like how do you get to 13 and three with case Keenum? Well, you need all of those things to click in. You also need Aaron Rogers to get hurt that year and not play either game against you. Mitch Trubisky was starting his career. Like you need everything to fall into place for Patrick Mahomes last year. He can go on the road against about, I don't know, seven great teams and just beat them all because it doesn't matter. And he can

have his offensive line, get hurt and still get to the Superbowl. You know, so it tells you, I think about over a span of years, maybe a lot of answers, or at least you can figure out like, well, what does someone need to lead your team where you want to go? Yeah, I know this is a question just about Trevor Lawrence's rookie season, but I think you saying that it's quarterback wins short term, you can see outlier stuff happen. Rex Grossman can have a great season with the bears one year

and that's it but what i would always say too is that it definitely it uh plays itself out over the long term like the top 10 quarterback wins in nfl history here they are brett farve john elway dan marino peyton manning tom brady fran tarkington johnny unitas joe montana terry bradshaw and warren moon so i mean, I mean, you could say, hey, you could point at passer rating is a better indicator, but for quarterback wins not being a quarterback stat, that's a pretty good top 10. So I think over the course of time, you're starting, your team isn't losing games, so you remain the starter, you have more opportunity to win games, and again, the most vital position on the field, you will win games if you are a good quarterback.

So I think by year two, by year three, the Jaguars need to be perennial playoff contenders, but in year one, six, seven wins. And we see flashes, maybe a comeback or two in the fourth quarter, or if they play, you know an elite veteran quarterback he goes toe-to-toe with him but they ultimately lose stuff like that that we saw from a lot of these you know Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson I think was a prime example that like he I remember in 2012 that he didn't look ready to start even though he was just ultra experienced quarterback he had some games like where he was like nine of 28, whatever, but you could just tell that he was a playmaker that,

that he had it. And I don't want to come on and say he had it as an analyst. I hate when say, Oh, he has that it factor, but I think people understand what that means. So to peg a specific statistic on like what will be a successful season for Trevor Lawrence is kind of difficult. But six or seven wins and the sack rate being a little bit lower than what we've seen from some of these other rookies would be a start. Yeah, just one last point on the QB wins thing is the quintessential 500 quarterback to me is Jay Cutler because he was just good enough to be great at times.

Just crazy enough with the football to make enough mistakes, to lose a bunch of games. And then with everything perfect could get you to an NFC championship game, but not consistently his career record 74 and 79. It's just perfect. Like over a long period of time, it just tells you, I think it does kind of give you an indication of what someone needs to win. But of course, as a rookie, you can't exactly figure that out based on how Trevor Lawrence wins. But you'd like to see because the situation lends itself with a bad division and playmakers.

It lends itself to actually winning some games. So kind of go show you can do it, at least at some point. So I think that's being that's being reasonable. Now, just staying with the quarterbacks here, let's be reasonable about Zach Wilson, who might be horrible this year. I think with Zach Wilson, anything he does, I'd be like, oh, okay, all right. If he wins some games, if he has some big games,

I just think that the uphill battle from BYU to the NFL on a Jets team that is not loaded with playmakers might have a better defense with a good coach and Robert Sala, but I don't know, man. I think that this is a big, big jump for Zach Wilson and I have very low expectations for his year one. I do too. And this is coming from someone that had Zach Wilson as my quarterback number two, but we talked about it so much before the draft that whichever quarterback lands with the 49ers is in a tremendous situation. I think on the polar end of that, whichever quarterback got drafted by the Jets,

and we knew early on that it was going to be Zach Wilson, that's probably the most difficult, the biggest uphill battle. And even in the AFC East, the Bills are a Super Bowl contender. The Patriots are a little better. They added to their defense in free agency. We know the Dolphins have a good defense. So right in your division, those games are going to be tough. And to your point, to go from some of the competition that BYU was playing to the NFL

and the fact, too, that Zach Wilson was, I mean, we didn't really hear too much about it, but was a legitimate one-year wonder. Like he kind of came out of nowhere and, but I watched a few of his 2019 games and you would have thought this guy might get drafted, like maybe fifth, sixth round. He's worth it. He's got a little playmaking skill to him. So we really saw like over whatever it was, eight to 10 games that he looked like this, you know, surefire highest graded player in or quarterback in PFF college's history. So I think to not be that established,

to not have two or three years of high level production against quality competition. And then the Jets offensive line, even with Elijah Vera Tucker and Mackay Becton is not very good. And he could be the one that I could see him being overwhelmed by the speed of corners, the complexity of blitzes, and just the fact that he will be under pressure way more frequently than he was at BYU. He was the least pressured in terms of rate of any of the five quarterbacks who went in the first round, even less than Mac Jones behind that Alabama offensive line. So yeah, I think for, for the jets, they're probably like, Hey, we moved on from Sam Darnold. We got this young, exciting quarterback. He can make all these plays

outside the pocket. He fits the trend. If they win a couple of games or he really might be the, throw out the quarterback wins. Just see if he makes enough plays and flashes in the second half of some games and maybe can beat some of the lower level competition and keep them competitive against the better teams even if they ultimately lose I don't think we really have to look at this as hey Zach Wilson needs to win six or seven or eight games because I don't think the Jets are really in terms of their roster are there yet and they have a first year head coach and we've seen first year head coaches come in and be good but also I think there is some learning experiences for Robert Sala to have with game management and when to go for it on fourth down we don't know anything about that with him at this point so

yeah I think you're right that with with Trevor Lawrence you could peg it and say six seven wins because he was so experienced. And hey, keep the sack right down with Zach Wilson. It's almost like just weather the storm and don't look like Josh Rosen, who never flashed and never elevated a lesser roster. OK, so we're on the same page there. So let me move forward. I have two more for you. Let's be reasonable about Trey Lance and Mac Jones and how much they're going to play? What is reasonable for how many starts that Trey Lance and Mac Jones end up making this year? Man, this one is tough because the 49ers, that whole fiasco with the trade up and they were going to pick Mac Jones and picking Trey Lance, it makes it difficult to peg like how they really

feel about Jimmy Garoppolo. Like it seemed like it was coming to a head before the draft. Like, hey, they're going to draft Trey Lance or Mac Jones and then like trade Jimmy Garoppolo the next day. But then when they actually pick Trey Lance, it's like, oh, he's the quarterback that definitely needs the most time. Then you think, well, he is in this very quarterback friendly system that could make CJ Beathard for two or three game stretch look like a competent quarterback. So maybe he doesn't you think well he is in this very quarterback friendly system that could make cj bethard for two or three game stretch look like a competent quarterback so maybe he doesn't actually need a full patrick mahomes red shirt type of season but i think the 49ers will be pretty good i mean

unless they get hit with the injury bug like they did last year so for trey lance maybe four to six games would be reasonable that if if we see Jimmy Garoppolo go down again we know he's gotten injured a lot he's a little bit smaller frame quarterback not he's actually not great at uh avoiding sacks uh and so he takes a lot of hits despite being this pocket passer that gets it out quickly having that reputation but I wouldn't be surprised like if you would have asked me this a month ago, I would have said, Oh, he's going to sit the whole season. I think they will ultimately see him. And at some point,

because the 49ers under John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan made the Superbowl and the other three years, they were under 500. They had losing records. So I don't think they're on the hot seat, but I think Kyle Shanahan is just sick of losing games. So he's like, Hey, I drafted this guy. He's got all the talent in the world world he's the opposite of Jimmy Garoppolo so somewhere four to six range and in terms of Mac Jones I think he's gonna play a lot more I think

Cam Newton will probably be the week one starter I don't have a lot of faith in Cam Newton as a viable starting quarterback at this point and although the Patriots spent a lot in free agency, is their wide receiver group that great with Jacoby Myers and Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Aguilar? Not really. And I think we've seen that when Cam Newton has everything great around him and when he was in the prime of his athletic career, he can win an MVP and they can go to the Super Bowl,

but that's not him anymore. And you take away the running element with him to a certain degree. He, at this point into his 30s, is just, I don't think, a high-level quarterback. But I think Mac Jones, eight to ten games, if not more, I think the Patriots will be ready to say, hey, we picked this quarterback. Yeah, we picked him at 15. We didn't trade up for him. Could maybe indicate that they weren't in love with him as a prospect.

But I kind of think they're ready to turn the page. I was surprised that they actually re-signed Cam Newton. So Trey Lance, four to six games, Mac Jones, a little bit more, eight to 10. There's just this part of me that looks at Randall Cunningham and says, Cam, like, you know, right? Like it just, if everything sort of went right

and they stacked up their team, the way he was playing at the beginning of the year before he got COVID last year was pretty good so I don't know I mean it's really gonna be up to Cam and and Jimmy Garoppolo and if those two guys could stay healthy and win a lot of games then they're going to keep their jobs and they're going to hold off the rookie quarterbacks but I think that the trigger is going to be pulled very quickly by both those franchises especially San Francisco when you trade that much to get a guy, you're going to play them. I mean, everyone's going to want to see him. And the other thing too, that is hard to factor in is owners go to the games and

they sit up in their big boxes. And if Jimmy Garoppolo throws a pick, he takes a bad sack. They lose a bad game. What are you going to hear from the crowd in Santa Clara you're going to hear you know let's put in the other guy let's get Trey Lance in the game right and the same thing goes maybe a little lesser extent from New England but especially in San Francisco that uh that there's going to be calls for as soon as grapples struggles and he will he will have his up and down games and so if they're not great right off of the gate next year I think you then the owner makes the phone call to the GM and says okay come on man I'm sick of these booze it's time to play Trey Lance yeah that's perfect I want to amend my answer I I think at least half the season

for Trey Lance that it's we at this point in the offseason and right after the draft maybe me being a draft analyst and thinking of this uh in terms, in theory, Trey Lance should have a Patrick Mahomes redshirt. Patrick Mahomes had a redshirt because the Chiefs were good and they had Alex Smith there. And they still went to the playoffs that year. Like, there was no real push to get him onto the field. I think you're right that trading up to get him, as much as they did, and the immense talent that he has. And that owner has faith in Kyle Shanahan to create a environment conducive to success for even a pretty raw quarterback. So I would say both of those quarterbacks.

Changing my answer, at least half the season. It's just we're in an instant gratification society. Teams, their GMs, the fans, they don't want to see a quarterback sit that was picked in the first round unless the team is really really good and i think there are definitely question marks about how good the patriots will be they're kind of both even the 49ers in the middle of this could like they could go seven and ten and no one would be like surprised at that so i i don't think they're both definite contenders in their conferences and because we are likely to see some of those hiccups along the road in late September,

early October, that's when we could ultimately see Mac Jones and Trey Lance on the football field. Hey, everyone. I want to tell you about our friends at Scout Logistics. And I really do mean it when I say friends. They are fans of Purple Insider over at Scout Logistics. And since they reached out wanting to support this show, I want to tell you about what they do. Scout Logistics is just-in-time transportation for full tractor-trailer loads. And if you're wondering what that means exactly,

well, if you own or work for a company that needs shipping solutions, they are the preferred carrier of Fortune 500 companies across North America. and we have quite a few of those in Minnesota, right? They can ship perishable, non-perishable, FTL or LTL, and they have on-time delivery rate of over 99%. So if you're like them and you enjoy the show and you have shipping needs, check out ScoutLogistics.com dot com or call 855-217-2688 extension 232 to connect with them directly to find out how scout logistics can minimize risk and overperform and go the extra mile for your company okay last one of let's be reasonable um and i will definitely bring this back unless i get angry emails um so all the weapons all the guys running backs wide receivers tight ends who were drafted in the first round who is it reasonable to expect they are great right away we know with rookies that anybody

could be a bust no matter how high your pick trent richardson was horrible and was picked fourth overall and the vikings benefited from that uh but uh is it reasonable to look at all these weapons of which the first round was just stocked full of and say you know what it is reasonable to expect this guy and this guy and this guy to be great right away so are you asking for one specific player or just one or two like or is there any is it unreasonable to ask anyone to be great right away because i have a couple of thoughts or a couple of answers potentially but i wanted to know if you think it's ever reasonable to think okay this guy should come over and take over the league well this being a uh let's be reasonable segment i i kind of see where you're leaning and i i don't know if there's

like any that i'm expecting to just take over the league right away and a lot of it is because of the situations that a lot of these teams landed on like i think Kyle Pitts being the first skill position player off the board at number four overall to the Falcons would probably be my answer because there's an established quarterback, and Julio's a little bit older. Kelvin Ridley's a good number two. I think they want to throw the football a ton. They didn't draft a running back.

Their backfield is Mike Davis and Quadri Olesen, so it's not like they're putting a big onus on the run game but like with Jamar Chase I really really liked him but there's T Higgins there there is uh Tyler Boyd there I'm not sure about the offensive line yet in Cincinnati although Joe Burrow was averaging 40 attempts per game before he got injured uh in his rookie season and then with Jalen Waddell my number number one receiver, I like at some point during the pre-draft process, forgot that the Dolphins signed Will Fuller. So they have Will Fuller, Devante Parker, Jakeen Grant, Mike Kosicki.

I think Jalen Waddell is the closest prospect we've seen to Tyreek Hill, but Tyreek Hill didn't come in and have a 1500 yard season as a rookie. He was kind of this gadget type that flashed and ultimately became that. And then the two running backs, Najee Harris, I loved him. I don't know if the Steelers offensive line is there yet. I like their two picks on day two, Kendrick green and Dan Moore, but there, I mean, anytime you're throwing rookies in there at starting positions, you can't have crazy high expectations for the offensive line.

And then Travis CTN, it's nice to have Trevor Lawrence there, but there's DJ Chark, there's LaVisca Chenault, a rookie quarterback, a not very good offensive line. There's James Robinson, a thousand yard running back in front of you on the depth chart. So I think all these players that were super hyped at the tight end and running back and receiver spot will have good seasons there's not anyone even Devontae Smith uh I think they'll have good seasons I really do um I don't think we'll see anyone that's like absolutely terrible like wow like Devontae Smith can't even run around he can't catch a pass but in terms of like taking over the league which I think truly Justin Jefferson did I don't know

if I necessarily see that with any of these first round uh offensive skill position players so the the two that i was going to pick were jaylen waddle because even though they signed will fuller he's hurt all the time and also i don't see two uh like throwing bombs all the time so they're going to find ways to get the ball quick into his hands he's amazing with the ball in his hands so i was going to say waddle should be sort of expected to be really great because of opportunity and Harris. I think also they want to run the football.

They, the Pittsburgh Steelers did not run the ball at all. So I think they're going to be expecting a lot of him. Part of it is just opportunity. And that was going to be my last question for you is I'm going to give you a couple of the odds and you tell me who you would bet. This is a, I got these from Vegas insider for offensive rookie of the year for this year. The top bet three to one is Trevor Lawrence. Justin Fields is six to one Trey Lance, six to one Zach Wilson, seven to one. But I think that I'm going to give you a couple of best bets. And you

think that, uh, tell me if you think it's nuts. So Jalen Waddle is only 16 to one, which I think that I'm going to give you a couple of best bets. And you think that tell me if you think it's nuts. So Jalen Waddle is only 16 to one, which I think is good. How about this one? Rashad Bateman is 40 to one. They don't have any other receivers there. I mean, Hollywood Brown never stays healthy and he's very limited. They throw to their tight ends all the time. They will pass the football. The other one, too, that might be really interesting is Kadarius Tony from the Giants.

He's 33 to one. R rondale morris 50 to 1 any of those any of those stick out to you i think payment's a good bet rashad bateman at 40 to 1 you said that's the best value if you want to bet on offensive rookie of the year because too it's all about expectations like i do think we fall into it where kind of like last year where there, I mean, I guess with offensive rookie of the year, there was a pretty good battle between Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson, but on the defensive side, like Chase Young was good. He didn't have like a Nick or Joey Bosa type rookie season or a miles Garrett rookie season that you can fall into. Okay. This was the most hyped

offensive skill position player or defensive prospect no one's really that great let's just give it to him but i also think that um when there is a situation like the one rashad bateman is in where the expectations are so low for the baltimore ravens passing offense and if they if he is integral in making lamar Jackson take that next step as a passer and the Ravens kind of rebound from that 2019 season where they were the one seed, Lamar wins the MVP, if he looks more like that player and it's like, hey, he's constantly looking toward this first-round pick at wide receiver, yes, Rashad Bateman will definitely get offensive rookie of the year consideration.

And he was the one kind of like boring first round prospect for me at the wide receiver spot that there was no amazing characteristic, but I did not see a legitimate flaw with his game that he won from the inside. He won from the outside. Great releases off press good after the catch good and contested catch situations, runs good routes.

And he was productive for back-to-back seasons when he was younger at the college level. So I think of all of those, the fact that he's actually behind Kadarius Toney is surprising to me because there's a lot more weapons there in New York with the Giants than there is in Baltimore with the Ravens. And at some point, I think Greg Roman and John Harbaugh need to realize, hey, we can run the football. We can be the best running team in the NFL. But as an organization that has one of the most robust analytics departments, they have to be banging on the coach's door saying, throw the football more, throw the football more.

And that was probably part of why they drafted Rashad Bateman in round one. So yeah, Rashad Bateman at 40 to one, that's the one that you definitely want to throw some money on. Chris Trapasso. You have been unbelievably helpful to the purple insider show and a website throughout this draft season. I have learned an incredible amount about this draft class and just covering the draft in general from you. This will not be our last time getting together,

not by any means, but this is sort of the end of our section of the Chris Trapasso draft show, which I guarantee you will return. So people should listen to your podcast, which is the prospect podcast. And I show up from time to time and we'll continue to do that as well. So thank you. Thank you, sir. This has been incredibly fun. We had a great draft season from all the hype leading up to it, to the analysis after and by the way uh your instant breakdown right after the draft was the second highest listened to episode ever on this show so just thought you'd like to know that makes me feel very good matt thanks for having me on this and thanks

for creating the chris trapasso draft show and what's great is i get so much uh like so many requests pre-draft talk about mock drafts and players and then after the draft like a lot of radio stations and uh like team websites and stuff like yeah maybe like that the first two days after like hey will you come on and talk about the draft i'm like we i just watched 350 players and we just had a marathon uh 259 picks we could build this out for the next couple weeks and months so the fact that you gave me the opportunity for shows post-draft has been a lot of fun. Absolutely. And we will circle back.

I'm sure as the summer goes along and we prepare and rookies will have a lot to do with this season for the Vikings. So I'll need you, buddy. Thanks again, man. And we'll talk soon.