Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Emergency podcast: Vikings won't tag Darnold

Episode Date: March 4, 2025

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Mount up! We're coming! We got Adam Schefter here folks. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold from Adam Schefter is unlikely to be franchise tagged ahead of Tuesday's deadline. Minnesota is still interested in working to resign Darnold, but is likely without any tag. Okay. Oh, that's probably not what she would fight. He's a nation wanted to hear.

I thought let me just read this again. I thought that this was not going to come until tomorrow. And here it is. I started the show saying, hey, you know, it's probably not going to get cursed. You didn't get cursed. I did not get cursed. No, we were on the air. So, um, Clay, I'm going to react to this news and a good job on Clay's corner. And hopefully you work out the sniffles a little bit there, but I, uh, we'll, we'll talk on Thursday. Sounds good. But I will talk on Thursday.

Sounds good. So I'll see you then. Thanks for your time, my friend. And let's react to this. Okay, here's the tweet from Adam Schafter. Sam Darnold, unlikely to be franchise tagged ahead of Tuesday's deadline. Minnesota still interested in working to resign Darnold, but is likely to be without any tag.

Evan says, I knew you were gonna find out during your podcast. All right, reaction, reaction. Well, the curse is broken, you're right about that. Yeah, so my first reaction is number one, that means nobody was coming to the Vikings with a big offer. That is still surprising to me.

I said probably a bunch of times that it would surprise me that no one got desperate enough to come and give the Vikings a third round draft pick for Sam Darnold. That's not really the interesting part of the tweet though because I don't think it's shocking that all of these teams would say, hey, we're not gonna help you out.

Instead, we're gonna wait till he hits free agency. And that is what it sounds like happened because the Vikings were in Indy and they were asking around and they were trying to figure out, hey, what's the type of return that we could get for him? But when teams felt like they knew he was gonna hit free agency

and the Vikings were going to go to JJ McCarthy, then yeah, they were not going to sit here and give the Vikings big compensation. But what I thought was gonna happen was I thought that one team would get nervous and they would say, ah, you know, the, the Titans, like we really, we don't want to draft cam ward and we just, we don't want Russell Wilson and let's just trade him a third and get Sam Darnold. The fact that that didn't happen. Yeah. I'll say that I'm a little surprised by that. I thought at the vet, I thought at the last second someone

would come flying in and say, okay, just give me your Darnold. I need it. I'm starving. I need water in the desert at quarterback. So I'm gonna come give you a third round pick. Apparently that did not happen. So I'm a little surprised by that.

Maybe maybe Darnold agent had made it clear that there's only a couple of teams he wants to go to, or maybe there's not as many teams as interested as I would have thought. I would have thought that there would be six teams interested, but maybe it's only two. And maybe those teams are totally comfortable with just fighting it out with each other in free agency for Darnold services.

So that's not that I mean, I'm surprised. And I know some of you are saying you're not. I am because they were asking around the combine. I thought at the last second someone would come through. Okay, they're not they're not getting compensation for him this year. Now, as far as the other part of that though, the other part is that they're still interested in working to re-sign Darnold, but likely to be without any tag.

Do we believe that second part? Because coming out of the combine, as you guys know, my read on the situation was JJ McCarthy time it looks like the Vikings want to move on to JJ McCarthy Start him next year start the process start the spending and off we go into the future That's how it looked to me or sounded to me. I didn't hear anything that sounded like, no, no, we really want Darnold to come back.

We want him on a three year deal. He won 14 games. He's our guy. We really like him. So the fact that it's mentioned that they are interested in working to resign him, is that that they are really interested in? I misread it. Or is that the Kirk we're interested? We're interested at a price that he's definitely not going to sign. Or is it that Sam Darnold side is interested in staying with the Vikings

because Justin Jefferson plays here and they won 14 games and he wants to try to work out a short-term deal to remain the quarterback for next year and then possibly get traded after that. It really feels like to me that this is the Kirk Cousins type of hey we want to work something out with you. So here's our offer But you're probably not gonna take it because you know, we have JJ McCarthy so Good luck. And as Kevin O'Connell said you earn the right to hit free agency and maybe it was Along something that they figured they couldn't get a trade

I was just going on the assumption that quarterback desperation is a heck of a drug and that somebody would come up like a quarterback fiend and offer them that draft pick, and that's not going to happen. That is in terms of like potential for them to stack up draft capital, I'm sure disappointing on their end.

They also may have had a higher price than the third rounder. They also, I don't know what they were looking for. My price would have been a third rounder to just get it this year, but they also might've had a different price. Trying to figure out now though, do they actually want to resign him? Now, some of you are mentioning,

hey, if Sam's agent is going to, you know, Adam Schefter and saying, oh yeah, the Vikings are still interested in resigning Sam Darnold. So let's make sure we up that price for the other teams involved, right? Because the Vikings really want him back. Maybe that's part of it. It could be. Trying to figure out where these leaks come

from. Hunter says that Rappaport said all parties are interested. So what a turn that would be, I guess, for me in my read of the situation, because I felt like going into the combine that there was a decent chance that Kevin O'Connell was going to tell us, combine that there was a decent chance that Kevin O'Connell was going to tell us, yeah, we want to be patient with JJ McCarthy and he's coming along, but we'll see. And hey, we love Sam and Sam did such a great job for us. That was not the vibe. That was not the tone. The tone was so much more along the lines of JJ McCarthy's doing great. His recovery is on point for him to start the offseason program.

And here's all the things that we did last year to prepare J.J. McCarthy mentally. That's what we heard about at the combine. So that's what I expected to be the main conversation as we went into this decision is like, J.J. is good to go. He's going to start week one. He's going to start the main conversation as we went into this decision is like, JJ is good to go. He's going to start week one. He's going to start the offseason program. That's what I wanted to hear, to feel like McCarthy was going to be the guy.

And then to have everybody saying the insiders that these two sides are trying to still work on something. Is it just, hey, they want to make it look like that. They want to make it look like they're respecting Sam Darnold. They don't want to be disrespectful to Darnold and make it feel like don't let the door hit you on the way out. Or would they really be interested in having Sam Darnold be their quarterback for next year?

I think a lot of you after the Rams game, emotionally and mentally moved on from Sam Darnold as QB1 and onto JJ McCarthy. So Hunter said the actual tweet said, all parties are working through the options to potentially keep him in Minnesota. Yeah, so we've got very little in terms of definitive anything on this. It doesn't sound like either Rappaport or Schefter.

Maybe they could fight it out in a Starbucks. I don't know. Either one of them has a definitive the Vikings and Darnold are working on it. It's more of they are interested in the options to potentially all that sounds like he's a raider is what it sounds like to me. All of it sounds like, well, the Vikings really love Kirk Cousins and KOC has a close relationship with him, but the Vikings are not going to overspend and then somebody else comes and overspends. If, then somebody else comes and overspends. If, excuse me, now as I work my way back to all the potential outcomes from here, now that we have the biggest answer that we've been

looking for, for I don't know how long, now we have to talk about all the different ways it can go from here. Which is if the Vikings were to extend Sam Darnold, it would have to be on something like a three year deal where the first year is very small and then he's extremely tradable after the first year. And even to the point where they could have a competition between, and I'm only going down this road, I don't think that this is a real possibility still. It still feels like it's JJ McCarthy show, but let's go down the road.

Let's just flesh it out a little bit here of how they would actually go about this. If they are truly interested in extending Darnold, they would have to agree to a deal that put a lot of money in his pocket right away. So guaranteed at signing more than he would get for the franchise tag. And that's why they don't tag him. They would have to have a short term contract that was very tradable. So if they had a competition between Darnold and McCarthy

and McCarthy wins the competition, then it could end up like Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz, where you are trading away Sam Bradford to a quarterback needy team at the last minute. That is one route you could go about it. You could also have Sam Darnold start next year, you have that low cap hit in the first year, get to the end of next year, see where you're at, and then either trade him or try to rework that contract.

But I guess what I wonder about is, are the Vikings in a different spot than all of you guys? Because Alec Lewis in his article insinuated that the Vikings were in a different spot than all of you when it came to the reaction to the game against the Rams. He wrote that the coaching staff felt like they let down Sam Darnold and that what happened was more on the personnel and the coaching than it was Darnold playing poorly, which I thought it was kind of a mix. Detroit was definitely a Darnold meltdown, but I thought it was more of a mix. Detroit was definitely a darn old meltdown, but I thought it was more of a mix against Los Angeles. So if they really felt like he was great last year, they want to keep him, he wants to stay because he doesn't like any of these other options. He doesn't like Tennessee, doesn't like Cleveland, he doesn't like the Raiders. He wants to stay with the Vikings and

he's perfectly comfortable with the idea that they could still trade him after next year, but for 2025, he wants to stay with the Vikings. Now, that would be a scenario that I think a lot of fans would be very, very uncomfortable with, very, very uncomfortable with. But I have always been comfortable with it. I don't think it's gonna happen.

I've always been okay with it as long as that's what Kevin O'Connell thought was the best route for JJ McCarthy, which was to develop for another year. If that's the way they go, then they still go into free agency, they still spend, they still have options going forward in the future.

They could still assess a quarterback competition. They could still get another year to see where JJ McCarthy is at. I probably said a bunch of times that if he's 23 when he starts as opposed to 22, then okay, right? Like that's not a big deal because that's still younger than Penex. It's still younger than Nix and all those things.

You know, and Scott says a low cap hit for 25 means dead money to eat. Well, not necessarily. I mean, the way if they were structuring it out so it could be tradable potentially in the future, then it might not end up having to have a lot of dead money. It just kind of depends on how they make the bonuses, if they are to put the bonuses at the beginning of the contract versus spreading them out in the void years. I mean, there's a lot of different structures

for the way that this could happen. But Sam Darnold would have to be on board with the idea that he's still not the chosen one for the Vikings, that it's still going to be JJ McCarthy and that it's a year-to-year type of situation. Again, it's possible. It's possible that Sam Darnold and his representation would so badly not want to go to these other teams because most of them are just total messes that they'd like to work something out with the Vikings for him to stay for at least another year.

It's just still hard to make it work exactly if JJ McCarthy is in good shape and ready to play. Then it's still hard to work out why you wouldn't just play him and then off you go. The only thing I could come up with would be that he missed so much time they want to evaluate him further before they throw him into the wolves, that the team has a lot of veterans during win now. Maybe Justin Jefferson wants Sam Darnold back.

I suppose that's possible. I know that Jefferson is looped into things like this. I'm not saying he's calling the shots, but he's looped in to their decision-making process. And it is possible that they went back through the tape at the end of the year and looked at everything and said, man, year two in this thing, he could win a Super Bowl with us.

We gotta figure out one way to at least run this back. And digits, I get you, his age is not the issue. It's really the contract value. But just for the sake of it, we're going down the road of what Schefter said here. I still at this moment think that JJ McCarthy will be the guy. But I'm going down the road to just see how this works out.

Okay. So when we talk about JJ McCarthy's age and his contract value, it is a massive advantage to have JJ McCarthy making 5 mil and have the most expensive quarterback in the league make it 60. And that would mean burning two years of his rookie contract. That is problematic. At the same time, it would still leave two more cheap years. And if he's really good, you sign him to an extension

that is going to have, like Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, a bunch of other quarterbacks to have done this that still has cheap years to start or very manageable years to start the contract. So now we're talking four years down the road before it's even a real discussion from age 23 to 27 before it could get potentially restrictive and that's your window to win. And then you have to deal with it with another extension

or restructures or something else. But you're really talking a very long time if you have one year where he is the backup and he's not playing and you've used two years of his rookie deal. Right? The Packers, just for example, the Packers are not going, how will we ever win with Jordan love like no they're all in right there all in Virtual reps still count that they definitely don't they definitely don't so that's the thing now all I've been saying is that It's not impossible to make that work with the salary cap

not impossible to make that work with the salary cap. Darnold with the short-term deal, first year is cheap, McCarthy sits for a year, they feel much better about where they're at with McCarthy, they move on from Darnold, trade them away, or you, I don't know, go to the Super Bowl and then you just keep Darnold, I don't know. Right, that's also out there. I mean, there's also, if they're going this direction,

which I don't think they are. But if they are, there's also another situation where Sam Dardells is great in the second year of his contract and they go to the NFC championship game or something and then they trade McCarthy for a first round pick. I don't know. I don't think that's that plausible either. But everything is kind of on the table with what we're seeing from Adam Schefter,

Ian Rappaport, with the fact that they will not franchise tag Sam Darnold, but they still, according to the insiders, want to work out a deal. Now that's just that hypothetical that has so many moving parts that I felt like we need to break that down first. Hallie's Holy Smoker Barbecue says it's highly unlikely Sam wins this Super Bowl. Fran Tarkenton didn't win you a Super Bowl. It's highly unlikely anybody wins you a Super Bowl. It's highly unlikely

anyone ever wins the Super Bowl, one out of 32. The point just being that when we go in that direction and try to sort it out, how would it work? The only answer for it working and getting to the NFC Championship, competing for a Super Bowl, is if he has a very specific structure to the contract and they could still spend as much as they want to spend

and then he takes a big leap within the offense and is more consistent throughout the entire season and has more around him, has maybe a playmaker in the running back position, has offensive guards that can block better, right? Those kinds of things that take his game to another level. I don't think that there's another level beyond top 10 play for Sam Darnold.

And Alex points out the schedule, totally, right? That schedule is much harder. Winning 10 games next year will be quite difficult. But Scott brings up the Wilfs. And I've said that before that, I mean, if the Wilfs fell in love with Sam Darnold and that's who they've said they want back, then that's what's gonna happen.

But I don't think they're that type of ownership who's gonna come in and say, we must have him back. I don't think that they're the type to do that. But trying to make it work, to make it the right decision, requires one thing that I think would make me say, okay, that's fine for doing it, which is if they bring back Darnold and he starts in 2025, what that means is that Kevin O'Connell thinks

the best thing for JJ McCarthy is for him not to play in 2025. And if that's part of the explanation, then it's really hard to fight him on that. My read from the combine was, oh, he thinks he's ready. All right. Well, here we go. Okay. JJ McCarthy time. Let's get into that free agency and fire away to the moon. Here we go.

Like the rookie quarterback contract that we've been fire away to the moon. Here we go. Like the rookie quarterback contract that we've been talking about for so long. You know, the heaven's part, the angels sing and the Vikings have the cap space. That's what I thought was on the way and I still think is on the way. But if it's not, and we have to wait another year for that, then it's because Kevin O'Connell thinks

that it's the right thing to do to give him more time. Hard to argue with that man. Hard to argue quarterbacks with Kevin O'Connell. And then on the other side, if that's what happens, we have to ask, well, what does Sam Darnold need to compete for a championship next year? Well, they need to be better because the 14 wins, they were not fraudulent, they were not bogus.

They were good wins against the Packers in Seattle, but it was boosted by the AFC South. We all know that. Next year, it will not be boosted by the AFC South. You will need to be much better to get even close to those results that you had from last year. And how do you get there? With the right kind of contract, with the right kind of moves in free agency, building the offensive line, putting a running back who can give him

some explosion, adding to the defense. It is plausible with the way he played that you could be in the mix in the NFC. With Washington, with Detroit, Philadelphia, right? Like all those teams, you could be in that discussion as they were this year if they can check those boxes. If they cannot check those boxes, then they will be wasting their time with Sam Darnold. I don't think last year was just a random fluke. I think he is a good quarterback, but I also have trouble seeing this different level from what just happened. And I have trouble seeing a Sam Darnold that is not up and down.

And if he hits the down at the wrong time, you lose those two games at the end of the year and then you look around and go, what the heck just happened? The physical element though, the physical element of JJ McCarthy still lingers. How ready is he really gonna be? So that's all of that because it's interesting and there's a lot more moving parts to it.

But what is the more likely thing? The more likely thing remains that the Vikings want to have a discussion with Sam Darnold about potentially coming back, but they only are willing to go so far. And when you look around at those other teams and how sorry they are at the quarterback position, there will be other teams that are willing to go much higher. Think about, just think about the ludicrous nature of what happened with Kirk Cousins last year.

Cousins has one playoff win ever in his whole career. Two teams have had enough of Kirk Cousins has one playoff win ever in his whole career. Two teams have had enough of Kirk Cousins at some point after starting him for a number of years, and they haven't won anything. And still the Atlanta Falcons swoop in as a Falcon want to do and pay the guy way more than anybody else was offered. Forty five million dollars, a hundred million guaranteed. That is how much teams are desperate for quarterbacks.

Aaron says he's not clutch. I disagree with that. I mean, that was his reputation at USC was being that. I mean, what did he have? Five fourth quarter comebacks this year for let's not let's not forget the clutch plays, man. Let's not forget Seattle. Let's not forget. I just think if you're making it about like criticisms of Sam Darnold, it's really got to be if you're like the anti Sam Darnold guy.

We have to be specific on it, right? The thing about Sam Darnold is he is a boomer bus type quarterback. And if you sign him to an extension, you have to hope that he booms at the right time, or it's going to fall apart. And there's not gonna be any explanation for it because that's how big home run hitters work. Sometimes they're great.

Sometimes it's the hot shooter thing. Sometimes you go into a game and a guy hits eight out of 10 threes, and you go, wow, he's the hot shooter thing. Sometimes you go into a game and a guy hits eight out of ten threes. You go, wow, he's the best shooter alive. And the next night he goes over 10. And that's how the Houston Rockets never won a championship with James Harden because they just gunned up a bunch of threes and eventually got him. That's kind of what the offense was like with Sam Darnold.

They gunned gunned down the field. And I know what you're talking about the playoffs It's one playoff game, which the same thing happened to a bunch of other quarterbacks I just think we're making the wrong arguments if we're saying well, you can't win in the clutch You can't win the plays in one playoff game I mean Eli Manning look at his first playoff game and then look at what he did Like there's a lot of quarterbacks who have not had a great start to the playoff careers that won. I don't think it's the right arguments. One game,

not judging a whole quarterback on one game. I would be judging him on how he performed with the entire offense over the hole. And the hole included a lot of ups and downs. And you know, you go to the jets game and his way down, you go to the Jags game, his way down. They got away with some of them because they were playing bad teams. Even the first time that they played the Packers, I didn't think he played well after maybe the first quarter and there were other times where there were lulls and then, you know, he ends up falling off at the end when things got

really intense. So that's just who he is as a quarterback, I think. I mean, his default is make a play. His default is go deep down the field, fire it into traffic, which can result in the strip sacks, the interceptions, the mistakes. It can also result in unbelievable throws like against Seattle or against Atlanta or a number of other plays that he made that won them a lot of football games. So I always look at the whole picture on a guy like this.

And when you do have one season of excellence, you wonder is the next season going to be the same when you do play harder defenses than you played last year. So all those are the considerations that they have to make as they go into this. But if O'Connell doesn't feel like McCarthy is ready, you cannot find me a better idea than the short-term deal for Sam Darnold.

Some of you like the idea of starting Daniel Jones. I just want you to go look at his PFF page, Daniel Jones. I mean, it's rough. It is rough. He was sacked 10 times in a game last year. I mean, it is bad. So I don't think there's anybody else that you could say, well, you know, if McCarthy's not ready,

just start this other guy. They've got to be really sure that JJ McCarthy is going to be good to go week one and he's going to be the guy. And if they are then that's a very exciting moment in Vikings history and will always kind of look back at those Two games and go well. Hey, wow, that's what turned them in a certain direction, right? and if they signed Arnold back It means that he really wants to be here means he must really love this and not want to go anywhere else

because his options to be the guy on other teams are going to be out there for him. At least at least for three or four teams. He has to be their best option. But if JJ McCarthy, see, I try to look at this through the bigger type of picture, like pull back not just what you want to see, which I know all of you want to see. J.J. McCarthy, you drafted him. He looked great. He had a great camp. So, yeah, of course you want to see him. But if there's a, you know, and some of you say, well, of course, he'll be ready.

Well, no one knows that better than O'Connell. I don't know that better than O'Connell. I would never even begin to say that. So if he says he wants him to develop on the bench for another year, I don't know that better than O'Connell. I would never even begin to say that. So if he says he wants him to develop on the bench for another year, they used to do this in the NFL with quarterbacks. And the teams who have done it have had success with it. With Aaron Rodgers, with Jordan Love, with Patrick Mahomes, you know all the names.

It's never worried me if JJ McCarthy has to wait another year. It is never worried me if he has to do that because I'm not looking at it for what I want to see. I'm looking at it for the big picture of the franchise. The more ready he is, the more prepared to play, to be a great quarterback in the league, the better. It just feels more to me like. This is okay.

Oh, this is Hunter. I appreciate Hunter your reading while I'm talking and thank you for doing this. So Hunter says an interesting quote in Rappaport story says if he's not poised to get a game changing payday on the open market, the Vikings could be a cushy option. 25 to 30 million blowfishes says. I don't think that I just know from from all of your guys' perspective, from the fans perspective, and I know there's some allies. I've gotten some emails of people saying, hey, I'm also not terrified

of Sam Darnold coming back, right? But most I would say it's 95% of Vikings fans wanna see JJ McCarthy. But if he, Sam Darnold signed a deal for $30 million, that was much more like Geno Smith's contract. And the first year had a cap hit of eight, and they've got 70 million to work with. And they went into free agency, got two guards.

They brought back Aaron Jones. They drafted Quinchon Judkins. They got Derek Harmon in the draft, signed DJ Reed and brought back Cam Bynum and Byron Murphy. It's a pretty darn good football team for next year. And it's not a bad situation for JJ McCarthy to sit. So one thing we have to remember is that this is a good position to be in to have the potential of JJ McCarthy having all the time that he needs. That is not something that happens very often.

I still am having trouble buying that this is the case that within the next few days they'll announce, oh yeah, Sam Darnold is coming back. I just would be surprised based on the way that they talked about McCarthy's recovery, because if he starts the off-season program at 100% fully recovered, good to go. That would put me back to last year when there was talk around the Vikings of JJ McCarthy making things interesting for Sam Darnold coming out of training camp. And the idea that they were going to be ready to potentially pull Darnold at a moment's notice and put in McCarthy and feel good about it.

That's how much progress he made. So if he's going to be good to start the offseason program at 100% health, then he has OTAs mini camp the whole six weeks after mini camp. So that goes from May to June. He works out through July. They come back. He's got the full training camp. I mean, that's enough time if he's in good physical shape to be back where he was last year to relearn the offense. So it would be playing it very slow. That would make me wonder, do the Wilfs want him back? Does KOC want to play it safe because head coaches are kind of like that?

Does it mean the Wilfs do want to see him back because they fell in love with him? You know, Darnold, did they really like him? Does it mean that they're shocked that they haven't heard that there are bigger offers and now Darnold's saying, oh please like keep me around because I'm not getting those bigger offers out there. Or does it just mean nothing? And it's very much like the Kirk situation from last year.

This is now going to play out over, I don't know, the next week. It must be the next week until Free Agency actually starts, which what is March 10th, where they're either gonna sign him during this window or he's going to hit Free Agency and go. It's kind of like with Kirk last year, where they have that exclusive window

that we were talking about earlier with Byron Murphy and Aaron Jones. And then, you know, that clicked and off Kirk Cousins went after that window ended. So the Vikings will have, if they do want to negotiate with Sam Darnold, they will have time to do it over the next week. If Sam Darnold is the quarterback for next year, it just to get this out there, it will mean that it's on a good cap hit for this year. It just to get this out there. It will mean that it's on a good cap hit for this year and I think the Vikings can compete and I think they can win a lot of games and they could put up a lot of numbers and they can have an exciting offense and Flores is going

to make it interesting and they could be a better team than they were last year on the whole. They won't be the magic carpet ride team that is just wowing everybody because they're exceeding expectations. There'll be more of a team that's in that second tier behind Detroit and Philadelphia for teams pushing to try to win a championship. And that's a pretty good place to be. I have never been against that place.

I'm now just a little surprised that we might end up in that place. I'm now just a little surprised that we might end up in that place because I felt like the way that Sam Darnold played over the whole season, not just those two games was comparable to top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL and was good enough to compete with the best teams in the league, especially since they lost his franchise left tackle and really didn't have a good offensive line and down the stretch had to be a lot of the Sam Darnold show to win those games. Arizona, Seattle, just for example, those were on his shoulders to go win.

So if you're KOC, maybe you're trying to project that out and saying, you know, if we had better guards, how about that? The football people become just like you guys eventually. I've never thought you guys were wrong about the guards, by the way. I joke, but I've never thought you were wrong. So if we had better guards, a better running game, better defense talent-wise with some additions,

can you repeat a lot of the same stuff and be a little bit better in a theoretical theoretical world? Yes. In practice, I think that's going to be really tough because of the schedule because Granard played the whole season Van Ginkle played the whole season. They had a lot of health that went their way. But I also don't think that it's nuts to have that logic. And you know, Edwin, I think for us, the schedule should play into it. I don't know if they think that way.

I don't know if decision makers in NFL buildings are sitting there thinking, oh, we're gonna have tough schedules, so we're screwed. We'll never do it again. Like they don't think that way. There's too much bravado. They don't think that way. Nor should they really.

I mean, you wouldn't, you wouldn't want your team saying tough schedule. I'm out. You don't want that. But it should be factored into the expectation for how good the roster has to be built in order to get there. And what I'm always fascinated by though is

the concept of what we think we know about the quarterback position. Last year at this time, they were signing Sam Darnold and I was saying, hey, you know, if he gets to week five, like that'd be great. Nice little bridge quarterback. Get him to the bye week. Maybe he has a crazy year. Who knows, right? That's what we were saying last year.

And then now he has his top 10 season. And after the Packers game, I think there's no way that they can move on from Sam Darnold after he throws for 377, three touchdowns. Here's me going. All right, guys, they got to extend Sam Darnold. Let me look how good this is. Can they lose the two games ago?

OK, on to J. to JJ McCarthy, right? Like these decisions for all of us to even form opinions on, for teams to make these decisions, they all have to be made with so little information, with one year of playing for Sam Darnold, with trying to project, well, what is the NFC going to look like? How good can he be when he comes back?

And then the ultimate projection, because even though Kevin O'Connell just got an extension, head coaches never think, oh, I've got an extension, I'll have three years to develop J.J. McCarthy or something. There's a little bit of devil, you know, devil, you don't that might play into this as well, which would be Kevin O'Connell knows exactly over an entire season and training camp and off season, the strengths and the weaknesses of Sam Darnold. And probably because he's a head football coach thinks that he can work through those. I don't think you're ever going to

work through the up and down nature of Sam Darnold, that he's always going to be boomer bust. He's going to I think there's a Joe Flacco comment or, you know, comparison there. Flacco got crazy hot in the playoffs and won one time. There's no guarantee that that would happen for Darnold. But when you throw down the field that much, when you have these disappearing at games where you're just completely shocked, like that's a Joe Flacco type of quarterback.

And remember the Ravens didn't even make their bet on him and he had to win the Super Bowl for them to sign him to an extension because they got tired of the up and down nature. So it's so hard to figure out, right? Like imagine that I can think of a hundred situations that are like this, where you go, the Ravens go into this season with Darnold or with a Flacco in 2012, thinking, we're not really sure if we're going to extend them or not. And then the guy wins the Superbowl.

I mean, so and how many seasons did they have as a sample size? I mean, if you remember back to Eli Manning's early career, he was a choker, wasn't good enough in the playoffs. And then all of a sudden, you know, now his reputation might get him into the hall of fame one day. I just, you know, come on. Hunter says, I love that the darn old news had to break at the end of the podcast instead of beginning where it could just be the focus.

Yeah, I will probably, when I repost this audio wise and on YouTube, probably just clip out the draft simulation for this. We'll have a lot more of the discussion about this. But yeah, man, I mean, this is, can I run a theoretical free agency and mock draft if we get Darnold back on a reasonable deal? Well, I think that they're the same. I don't think that anything changes if they bring back Darnold on a

reasonable contract for this year. Where it changes is what do you do down the road? That's where things change. Because if Sam Darnold, here's where it gets really complicated. If you bring back Sam Darnold for 2025 and he signs a three year, $100 million contract with 60 guaranteed and the cap hit for next year is seven. This is Baker Mayfield's contract that I just described to you. So it's reasonable.

And they go out into free agency and they get Will Fries and they get. Will Hernandez, so they got some guards and they go get a defensive tackle, BJ Hill and they get DJ Reed and they draft a starting corner and they draft a running back and they bring back Aaron Jones. Teams pretty stacked, right? Is a really good football team right there that can absolutely compete for next season. 14 games, probably not.

But maybe 11. Could they compete for 11 or 12? Put them in the mix. OK. But how do you decide what to do after that? Because you've still got J.J. McCarthy there. Now, that's a great backup, by the way. If anything were to happen to Darnold, it'd be a heck of a backup to have your top 10 pick.

But you can't go another year with that. You would either have to, you know what, or get off the pop. It would be, you're either gonna stick with Darnold after 2025 and trade McCarthy, or you're going to trade Darnold at the end of 2025. If he has a good contract extension that's reasonable, that might be easier to trade after 2025.

That might be part of the conversation. It also might be part of the conversation that they go through a training camp and McCarthy's way better than Darnold and they feel great about him and they trade him to a team whose quarterback got hurt. Like there's so many options here when you throw into the mix

that they're interested in bringing back Sam Darnold which is something that I had mostly written off and I think I still am probably gonna be right to do that. I mean, I also will be beside myself if Sam Darnold signs a super reasonable contract with the Vikings and none of these other Joker teams that are lost at the plate are even remotely interested. That would be very bizarre. But he might not be interested in those teams. I mean, if you're Sam Darnold, would you rather sign a deal with the Vikings that could get you traded

after 2025, but you get another year playing with K Vikings that could get you traded after 2025? But you get another year playing with KOC Jefferson compete for a Super Bowl at least that's what you're thinking Or go to the Giants and have your coach get fired after one year if you win seven games or go to the Raiders Where you don't know what they're doing their coaches a hundred years old or go to Tennessee Yeah, like there's nothing good going on in Tennessee. So all those things. Maybe that's part of the discussion for Sam Darnold, and that's why he wants it out there. Hey guys, I would be interested in coming back and continuing to throw to Justin Jefferson if you'll let me. I don't know how it's going to play out. And if you'll let me, I don't know how it's going to play out. But this certainly injected a lot of life into the show here that we were wrapping up

thinking, all right, well, that was a fun night and tomorrow's going to be a big day for us. And hey, I got the plumber coming tomorrow to fix my pipe problem. And now I've got the answer to this. Although unless they extend Sam Darnold tomorrow, the number I heard, so this is where things go crazy already, the number I heard on a Darnold extension was closer to 120, 60 to 70 guaranteed,

was the expectation that I heard from an agent. Not his agent. Just somebody else opining, like, what would I be looking for if I was him? Kind of the 120 range. And maybe that puts you with a first year cap hit that's $10 million or something, and you could still do everything you want to do,

but it does have the potential to cause you problems in the future, because I'm describing a situation where they eventually trade him, but you don't know what's going to happen. The hardest thing that could happen as far as decision wise for the Vikings, if they brought back Sam Darnold next year and he went 10 and seven and was the 12th best quarterback in the league, and they won a playoff game. Then you look around and go, I don't know, like should we do something else next year?

I think in that scenario you have to move on, but if in that scenario you have to move on, then why wouldn't you move on right now? So let's put odds on it. Before I wrap up for the night with this breaking news, I mean, honestly, I could talk about it all night. It's so interesting to me. And if you guys want me to, I'll just keep talking about it.

If you, I don't have to wrap up. I just feel like, what am I leaving on the table right now? Am I leaving anything on the table after we got this Adam Schefter bomb dropped on us midway through the show here that the Vikings and Darnold are interested and then Rappaport puts it as they're both interested but it's got to be at the right price and if you're Darnold maybe you just would rather take the right price and not go play for the Titans. I could see that. I mean, the Titans are a horrible organization.

The worst stadium, no receivers. I mean, the Raiders, who are you throwing to? Like, would you, I mean, if you're, think about this. Let's, Darnold is kind of a humble dude. And I actually think his family's a blue collar or something. His dad might even be a plumber. Funny that that would come up on the show today but

if Money's not that important to him and what's important to him is throwing a football in the direction of the best receiver in the NFL Maybe he says I'll take the deal. I'll take a decent contract for you guys to I'll take the deal. I'll take a decent contract for you guys to be able to continue to play football for Kevin O'Connell, be with this locker room, everything else and allow you to build. Now, we don't see this very often. This is a Tom Brady thing that everybody brings up, and we don't see it much. Mahomes certainly took less than what he was worth.

But aside from that, if Sam Darnold was willing to do that, then he potentially could come back to the Vikings if they are telling the truth to the people like Adam Schafter and Ian Rappaport about doing it at the right price. And then they're in a position where they have two good quarterbacks and they go forward and we all see what happens. It is so unpredictable what's going to happen with the quarterback position. Think about the 49ers. The 49ers went from signing Jimmy Garoppolo to drafting Trey Lance to drafting a seventh rounder with the last pick to having the seventh rounder take them to the Super Bowl to now being really worried about extending the seventh round. I football just has this way of throwing all sorts

of curve balls at you. So let's put odds on it. If you guys want to throw in the comments what you think the odds are that Darnold is starting week one or McCarthy is starting week one after this. So I had moved it to 90, 10. I had moved it to 90 10. I had moved it to 90 10, JJ McCarthy. And I still can't figure out if these are just courtesy things

like it was for Kirk cousins. I believe they had a number on Kirk cousins, but I think it was so low versus what he was going to get in the free agent market that they knew that it wasn't really going to happen. My guess is it's only a guess. I didn't hear this, but my guess is they were around that 30 type of million with Kirk Cousins last year and then somebody else blew it out of the water or they wanted much shorter that they were a two year or one year type of deal where, you know, if Darnold comes back and you know, Timothy brings this up and this is absolutely a part of this is

If Darnold comes back as the starter Then there will be quarterback controversy That in the stands if Darnold goes three and out First drive of a game. He's people are calling for JJ McCarthy That's how much the fan base wants McCarthy to be the quarterback. I don't know that there will be a huge controversy inside of the locker room if he's playing well

and they're winning games, of course they're well. But when he has that downturn that is inevitable with Sam Darnold, if he has two games where he's bad, I mean, everybody's gonna be thinking the same thing. Is it time to go to JJ McCarthy? Now that's not the worst thing in the world. If that ends up happening. If Sam Darnold played half of the season

and they went three and four and they said, all right, you know what? We signed him to this extension, but let's go to McCarthy. That's exactly what happened in Atlanta. They just have to make sure that they're not setting themselves up, that moving on from him is a nightmare for them cap wise. That's where Atlanta screwed themselves. Atlanta made it so bad for them if they moved on from him.

And the same with Russell Wilson. So they would have to make it so they have a succession plan, they could get out of it without taking on some huge dead cat money. Your guys' numbers are kind of all over the place. Most of you leaning still toward McCarthy. Halley's Holy Smoker is at 100% with JJ. Nothing under percent ever in football.

That's how I would see it. 75% Hunter, if signed. Well, yeah, of course, if he signs, we don't know if he's going to sign yet. Ninety five percent for Bradley goes to McCarthy. Twenty percent Darnold for Red Star. Sixty five percent for Alex is less confident. Ninety nine percent that JJ finishes the season, maybe. 110 percent. Yeah, I mean.

My percentage right now would be probably the same that it was coming out of the combine. This still feels like a courtesy. It still feels like, yeah, we'll take you back if you take like nothing. But if J.J. like a courtesy, it still feels like, yeah, we'll take you back if you take like nothing. But if JJ McCarthy's 100% healthy, then it's time to go. 80% Sam for not now, okay. That's our first, Blowfish is saying 90% Darnold. So okay, you guys are all over the map,

which is totally fair based on the news tonight. And maybe you're right about O'ConnellConnell that he would love to actually have a quarterback for two years and see what he could do with the guy being comfortable with the offense your numbers are all over the place and I Was leaning more toward I'm still McCarthy at 90% maybe I need to bring that back down to where it was pre-combine and at 90% maybe I need to bring that back down to where it was pre-combat and Maybe I just need to wash out what I thought after we talked with Kevin O'Connell I maybe I just need to to throw that away. He a FBI guy, right? That's his dad went to the F was in the FBI So maybe he was just really good at not showing us any of his cards by saying that Darnold that earned the right to be

a free agent and all that stuff. I don't know, but I'm still feeling like I agree with the McCarthy people that it's time as long as he's healthy to go there. And the only thing that could complicate it is if they were already there mentally and they were like, OK, we're good to go and on to, you know, JJ McCarthy. And then all of a sudden Sam Darnold comes back. It says, you know, I don't like any of these offers. Can I stay? They're like, oh well Maybe And I've never believed in the

John Madden if you have two quarterbacks you have none that usually refers to two bad quarterbacks John Madden, if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. That usually refers to two bad quarterbacks, who you have to take out and things like this. So it doesn't refer to two good quarterbacks. Blowfish is, you are right, that Cousins was playing better football, I think by a lot in his second year in the system. And that's why getting inside these guys' heads,

the Vikings have been very unpredictable when it comes to a lot of different things. When contracts are getting signed and stuff like that and this could be another one of those situations where they threw us a little bit of a curveball at the combine and then they end up doing something totally different so we're gonna find out in the coming days what is next for this situation with JJ McCarthy Sam Darnold if Sam Darnold's gonna sign a contract or if he is going to hit the free agent market.

I would lean toward the McCarthy people right now, but they might prove me wrong tomorrow. And I might be doing a emergency podcast with my plumber right in here next to me, listening to the show, doing some work on the house house tomorrow and we're going through all this all over again the bottom line on this though is If Sam Darnold comes back They will do it in a manner that still allows them to have the offseason. We thought they were gonna have

They're not going to bring Sam Darnold back and then say, oh, do we have another tackle that we can move to guard? Like, no, they're going to go out and they're going to do those things. They're going to improve the roster. They're going to bring guys back. They may have to structure some of it differently,

but more likely than not, it will be about the structure of his contract that will allow them to do all those things. If they bring Sam Darnold back, it also means that Kevin O'Connell is uncomfortable with the idea of just rolling out McCarthy at his age and his lack of experience of which I would trust Kevin O'Connell's decision making in that process. I would not question that. I would not say, you don't know what you're talking about. Just play the kid. You dope coach of the year. Just

took Sam Darnold to 14 win season. I'm not going to say the guy doesn't know what he's doing. He spends 98% of his life thinking about quarterbacks. He played in the league. He played for some of the best Bella check. He knows what he's doing. McVeigh. He knows what he's doing. If Darnold comes back, there's a reason for that. He didn't just randomly decide, you know what, I like Darnold's beard. Like he just, no. If this was the previous regime, we'd have some questions. But I will assume that they want to just give McCarthy more time. I will continue to assume if Darnold comes back, that McCarthy is the franchise quarterback down the road. But the results and how things go

can make that situation very fluid going into the future. And I also don't think that a team would ever begin to factor what the fans want or what they think. You all have heard the, if you're listening to the fans, you're gonna be sitting with them. I'm sure you guys have heard that a hundred times. We're talking about some of the cliches here. the if you're listening to the fans, you're going to be sitting with them. I'm sure you guys have heard that 100 times. We're talking about some of the cliches here.

But they have to understand it's not going to be like last year. The pressure if they bring back to Arnold is enormous. The pressure on him is enormous. And from the fans, media, the ESPN, the NFL networks, if it goes sideways for two weeks in a row, they have to understand that Sam Darnold is now going to be talked about as should they bench him? And should they play JJ McCarthy?

Is it time to bench him? Is it panic time? Is there a panic button? And if you come out 0-2 or something, like all of a sudden it's gonna feel like the world is collapsing. Whereas if JJ McCarthy is your quarterback, there's going to be much more patience for McCarthy.

And I don't think we're going to be viewing that as, oh, well, if Darnold goes somewhere else, McCarthy struggles, then, you know, we're not going to look at it that way. We're going to look at it more of, well, Darnold's, you know, going to go to another team and then McCarthy's going to have a window that he's beginning. But all these things, they swirl now in the in the head coach's mind.

What if I start McCarthy and he's not ready and we win seven games and then I'm on the hot seat all the time, right? The coaches think that way. They don't think, well, I've got a five year contract. I'll be fine. Like they don't think that way. They kind of think year to year. So I feel like still if Darnold was the quarterback for next year and they developed McCarthy, that if it wasn't going well,

they could always make that switch and they can always still trade Sam Darnold at the end of the day. But there's that risk. And this is why the structure is so important. There's that risk of getting caught holding the bag. There like the Atlanta Falcons are right now. The Falcons are talking about, oh, yeah, we'll keep we'll keep Kirk Cousins. What? You know, huh? Yeah. So they don't want to get caught in that same situation as Denver or the same situation as Atlanta, where you just end up with this big contract on the books.

is Atlanta, where you just end up with this big contract on the books. But maybe that's a risk they're willing to take, to bring back Darnold, try to run it back, and then have J.J. McCarthy there for the future. Maybe. Right now I think that Sam Darnold will go out and he will find better offers, and I know you're not allowed to tamper, of course, until the legal tampering window is begun. But I'm sure that they've got a sense for what those offers are.

And maybe this could also be his agent trying to pump that up, trying to be like, hey, you know, he'll come back. He'll just go back to the Vikings. They want him. So you should really up your offers. I'm leaning much more toward those types of shenanigans that I am toward the Vikings really wanting to bring him

back as of right now. And we'll go from here. But I think you know what this means, it means more podcasts are on the way. Cause we're gonna have to break this down with different people. It's gonna be a situation that's hour to hour, minute to minute here on Purple Insider.

And I will be here for all of it. Jeremiah Searles is gonna come on the show this week, Chris Trapaso, our resident draft analyst from CBS Sports, and now I think I'm gonna have to book some more guests after we have our answer that the Vikings are not franchise tagging Sam Darnold. Oh, somebody asked, I'm sorry, I missed this question, it's a good question about whether we should criticize the Vikings for not finding a trade partner. And my answer is,

that's a hard one. Because I was always going along the lines, and I was not correct on this, that somebody would do this. I thought all along, and there might just be less interest in Sam Darnold than I would have thought. Maybe he's viewed on the same level as a Russell Wilson or a Justin Fields, of somebody that you just don't want to invest that much in. But I thought somebody would get crazy

and like, all right, you want to get nuts? Let's get nuts. So here's a third round pick. I thought that it didn't happen so That would have taken another team to come in and say here's our third round pick and the fact that they Another team didn't it's not like the Vikings have control over that like think about when they didn't trade de Neil Hunter and they maybe could have got a second round pick and then Kirk gets hurt and the wheels come off

or whatever order that happened and Kirk got hurt, they didn't trade Hunter, that's in their control. Someone would have traded for DeNeil Hunter, that was in their control, that they didn't get more back for Hunter. That's something we could criticize them for because that's in their control. This, it's not really in their control

if nobody else comes to you with a draft pick that you're taking. So I would say no. I was thinking they would, they didn't. I don't think it's something we need to go, oh, what's the front office doing? Well, you can't force people to do it. Jeremiah says, is there any chance

that they trade McCarthy and keep Sam? I don't think so. I don't think so. I mean, I don't know. Would you, this gets into some crazy rabbit holes of, would you trade JJ McCarthy for the number one overall pick? If the Tennessee Titans said number one overall pick, you can have Travis

Hunter or Abdul Carter for the number one overall pick. I guess you would take Travis Hunter because they've got the edge rushers already for, for JJ McCarthy. And then you extend Sam Darnold. That's a good one. I don't know. I don't know about that. That's drafted the guy with the tenth overall pick and he looked great. It's pretty hard to give up That's an interesting thought though Definitely an interesting thought Bob says if the if Sam Darnold signs a three-year 120 deal with the Raiders the Vikings massively Misgaged his tag and trade value misgaged his tag and trade value,

somebody's gotta be in there, think about it this way. If there's maybe two teams that wanna do it, they may have just thought, we'll just bid against each other and let the best man win rather than helping the Vikings. I guarantee that if they had offers, they would have taken them. I guess I can't say a say 100%, but that's what would have made the most sense. If someone came to them with a third round pick or a second round pick and said, we'll give this to you for Sam Darnold on the franchise tag,

they would have done it. I think unless they do really, really want to back if they really, really want to back. But even then, if they really, really wanted to back, If they really, really want him back, but even then if they really, really wanted him back, then they could have transitioned tag, I don't know. This feels like they want to make an offer so they made an offer, but I don't think it's going to be the biggest offer. And if it gets to day one of free agency

and the Vikings have had this exclusive window to negotiate with him, and then he gets into the legal tampering phase, I think that someone else is gonna come with a bigger offer. So, Skywalking McCarthy comes in with the announcement that Sam Darnold isn't getting tagged. Skywalking McCarthy,

you're gonna have to join these streams a little faster, man. But talk about it for an hour and 10 minutes. Oh, man, this is why live streaming is more fun than recording because funny stuff happens and you guys are funny. Sue says 20 million dollars a year is max. Well, the thing is, NFL money is funny money. It's not like we always do the average per year, but that's not really what it is, right?

It's all about structure. How you're, he's not taking $20 million a year, but 35? Let's say it's 35 a year. But then when you look at it on paper, it's really not very much at all in the first year. And then it goes bigger in the second and third year, but then when you look at it on paper, it's really not very much at all in the first year. And then it goes bigger in the second and third year, but that's when you would be looking to trade him or you could restructure or whatever.

You know, Jalen Hurts is a great example of this. They put void years until the end of time. That asteroid that has like 5% chance to hit the earth in 20 years, that's to get here before Jalen hurts is void years are done, but they knew that this was their opportunity to win, so they put those in there and that's how they worked it out.

You can always make it work in a short term if you want to. And if they really want to with Darnold, they will. And then we'll go from there and they'll still have a big free agency and offseason this year. It's into the future that is the question. Because if Sam Darnold comes back this year and wins 11 games.

Like, what do you do there? Eleven games in a playoff, but they don't get to the Super Bowl. And what do you do there? Do you in a playoff, but they don't get to the Super Bowl. And what do you do there? Do you move on to McCarthy? Do you trade him? What if he wins nine games, but the defense falls apart? Like there's all these sort of scenarios where you go, what do you do if this happens?

What if Darnold, here's the worst one. What if Darnold played really badly and they couldn't trade him? Now I guess usually you end up, but then you have to, what if you have to cut him? What if he gets hurt and you have to cut him? And then you're just on the hook for all that money. Like there are risks that go along with it.

But yeah, Scott, there's a lot of Eagles contracts that are like that where they peeled open the window. The Vikings might feel like after winning 14, they're in the window and they should do everything they can to make it work right now, here and now, and not think too far down the future. Like this year, all in, try to go win the Super Bowl with Darnold.

It's all possible. It's all on the table now that they're not franchise tag games. So what a day, what a day. You know, we start out. We're doing a draft simulation, I'm going through free agents and I'd say, like, let's not talk about the quarterback thing until we get there. And then all of a sudden, boom. Out of nowhere.

And that is why notifications. Are important. That's my PSA for tonight. Friends, do not forget your Adam Schefter and Ian Rapaport notifications on your phone. Otherwise, you'll miss very important news that you're gonna have to jump on here and listen to me break down on emergency podcasts.

So look, I'm gonna be working my way through this on the newsletter as well, purpleinsider.football. And I guess I'm gonna have to wait to run my free agent list and my draft simulation for now and we'll see where this all goes from here. So I gotta get right and if I'm gonna put out that newsletter by tomorrow after this breaking news, but thank you all so much for hanging in, watching the show, watching the reaction. It's been a very interesting discussion and there will definitely be more of that as the week goes along and we will follow this story

And somebody said yesterday in the comments. I was kind of laughing somebody said why not just wait till this thing plays out to talk about it like and Miss stuff like tonight. This was great This was a great time you're right I mean, maybe I should just do one of those sometimes I see streamers who stream for eight hours a day and I'm like, how do you do that? I think they play video games and stuff. Maybe that's what we should do.

We should do a stream until something happens with Darnold. And I just sleep and play video games and the live stream and wake up every few hours. Schafter Schafter, is that you? Anyway. All right. Well, that is it for now. But you can trust whether I have to do

the emergency podcast upstairs tomorrow because there's a plumber in my house, or whether I'm back here with no new information, that there will be a lot more of this. And I do think that we're going to go live every night. I think it just makes sense. Go live every night until this is resolved and into free agency. Let's just do it.

So this is a place to be every night. I haven't looked if I have anything to do this week. Probably not. I think I cleared this out. So let's go. Off season is on, folks. Football. I'm excited. Thanks everybody. And we will talk to y'all very soon, I guarantee it.

Football.