Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Emergency reaction: Dalvin Cook is holding out

Episode Date: June 9, 2020

What will Dalvin Cook be looking for in contract negotiations? Can the Vikings afford to sign him to a big deal? Is paying a running back a smart idea? When can we expect the Vikings and Cook to get things worked out? Read Matthew Coller's written work at PurpleInsider.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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camp does appear to be right around the corner this news comes the same day that the NFL put out some guidelines for how they want to do training camp during the COVID-19 pandemic so Courtney you have done extensive reporting on this and we have discussed it at various times throughout the offseason but where do we stand right now with Delvin Cook holding out until he gets a new contract well it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone and I think that the fact is no one should be panicking right now the Vikings typically do a lot of these extensions after the OTAs, after minicamp, after all of those things end, typically on the eve of training camp, as we saw with Stephon Diggs in 2018, and then before that with Linville Joseph, Everson Griffin, and Xavier Rhodes.

So there's still time for something to be worked out here, but I just think at this point, Dalvin and his representation had been thinking that they were going to get something done, and the further you go into this, the less leverage I think you kind of have as you're still participating in OTAs or virtual OTAs. And if they were to ever get on the field and he didn't have a deal, that wouldn't make a shred of sense. I mean, he's got to protect himself.

So I'm not surprised at all. The timing is about what you expect it to be, because we were hearing, you know, about a month ago, I was speaking with sources who were confident that this thing was going to get done at the beginning of May. And here we are on June 8th and no deal's been reached. So I'm not surprised. But a lot of it, from my understanding, came down to kind of where the negotiations stand. His side, Dalvin's side, came up with a very high number, which sources have told me is in that range of what Christian McCaffrey makes. We know that's a $16 million a year deal over, I believe it's a four-year contract. So it's in that range. I don't know

whether he wanted to be more than that, how much more than that, on par, whatever. That's still, that's top running back money and the vikings came back with an offer from my understanding that was below 10 million dollars a year on average i don't know the exact figure but it's in that range so you know the word that was used to describe the initial vikings offer to me from a source was quote disrespectful so they're they're waiting to, you know, make sure that they can get something, you know, back in the, something closer to, I guess,

coming through even. But that's what you expect because negotiations aren't just, I propose an offer, you propose a counteroffer, and then we settle in the middle. Like a lot of times these things take a while to get worked out. It's probably a reason you haven't seen

an extension inked yet for Anthony Harris. of times these things take a while to get worked out. It's probably a reason you haven't seen an extension inked yet for Anthony Harris. So by and large, I think that Dalvin's in a really good position still to make top five running back money, but he's not going to be the highest paid running back in the NFL. There's no way. So what do we expect then for a timeline with this thing? Because if his side is seeing the current offers as disrespectful, that means there's a pretty wide gap between the two sides. And when I had Bradley Spielberger from over the cap on a video cast slash Q and a for purple insider a couple of weeks ago, he talked about David Johnson's deal and that's shown up a couple of times, three years, $39 million and a cap hit that was spread out over four seasons to never

go over $11 million. If I'm reading it correctly from over the cap.com, that seems to make a lot of sense to me, Courtney. I mean, you have a running back here who is vital to what the Vikings do on offense that everybody wants around a person that everybody wants around in Delvin cook. But you have to look at the downsides here. I mean, the fact that he has had this injury history is going to take money off of what he's asking for. There's no question about that. He doesn't put up the target numbers of someone like Christian McCaffrey, even if he is a huge part of the passing game for the Vikings. I mean, he just doesn't have as strong of a negotiating stance as someone like McCaffrey who had consistently played every game and was basically Carolina's entire offense. That just isn't quite the case for Delvin Cook. No, I mean, yes, the Vikings had the second highest design

run percentage in the NFL last year. That's no secret that Delvin Cook was the reason for that. And he took 38.1% of the team's touches from scrimmage. That's ninth most in the NFL. Like Christian McCaffrey was on a different level because he had to be. I mean, the Vikings had Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen last year. They had more ability to spread the ball around than a team that had a backup quarterback and no other weapons on offense. I mean, Carolina's situation really doesn't compare to Minnesota whatsoever. I mean, yes, this offense is built around Dalvin Cook because it has to be. But the Vikings, I mean, they paid their quarterback because they kind of had to at that point back in free agency in March. And now where they're at with this whole thing just kind of shows you that,

you know, they really do. They really must believe in Kirk Cousins if they're giving him a deal like that and they haven't been able to give Dalvin Cook something yet. But regardless, like Christian McCaffrey I just I wouldn't put them in the same realm just because it's two totally different situations David Johnson though as you brought up I mean in the trade to Houston and he's going to make an average of 13 million dollars a year I think that the Vikings could absolutely afford um depending upon how they structure the contract, to give Dalvin almost an identical deal to what Johnson's getting. You take a look at where he's at in his career, going into year four, the wear and tear that is not on his body yet, in spite of the

injuries, he has a chance to make a sizable payday. I mean, top five money for a guy like that? I know there's some people who would disagree with me and say you should never pay running backs that much but I think Dalvin's definitely worth it he's shown um that when he is healthy he's really darn good but the health is a factor in this whole thing the initial figure that was proposed is a is a you know a big leading to the impasse uh now. But outside of that, I still think they're going to be able to get something done at some point in the next month, six weeks. Well, I agree because of a lack of leverage on Delvin Cook's part

because of the new CBA. This is a huge factor in my mind. I saw, again, our buddy Bradley Spielberger tweeted out that you now don't accrue a season. If you hold out from training camp, which would be a huge deal. And that would make Delvin cook a restricted free agent after the 2020 season. And basically just take any leverage he had whatsoever and throw it in a volcano. So he has to get this done before training camp and not hold out of training camp and

also not shoot himself in the foot as other running backs have done. You know, someone like Ezekiel Elliott, again, was very healthy throughout his career. And also it was under the last CBA. So he could just hold out and wait and wait and wait. And eventually Dallas paid him. But in Cook's perspective, he can't really do that. What the Vikings could do if they wanted to play extreme hardball is have Alexander Madison be the running back this year and say thanks but no thanks to Delvin Cook and just move

on after that if they wanted to. Now, they don't want to because, as you mentioned, he is one of the five best running backs in the league, but I think the change of leverage here has leaned toward the Viking side. And in past years, Courtney, though, you said that you still have confidence this gets done. They've always figured it out. There have been some tense moments with guys. There have been some contracts. We thought, how is this ever going to work out? And then we see, you know, Delvin Cook, or I'm sorry, Daniil Hunter, or Stefan Diggs, or Xavier Rhodes, or Anthony Barr. I mean, Barr is a great example of somebody that literally took it to the very last second before

signing back with the Vikings. They just always seem to find a way to work these things out. Yeah, and when they sign their rookie class from 2020, they'll have just over $8.1 million to work with in cap space between Anthony Harris and Dalvin Cook. There's no doubt in my mind that they could come back at 13 and get something done. They could do that tomorrow. And I know that in speaking with sources, that's something that's a figure that Cook would take. He would take that today if they offered it. But clearly, we're at a place right now where the negotiations are at a stalemate. You have to think about it too. Like if that's worst case scenario for both Dalvin in the,

in the terms of he would become an RFA after the 2020 season, like you said, no leverage, but also for Minnesota, if they do it that way, they're conceding that this is going to just be a year, not a year to remember, but just a year because, you know, they're conceding that this is going to just be a year not a year to remember but just a year because you know they're built for 2021 and beyond and we know that uh but you don't have you know if you don't have dalvin cook here you're looking at a at a running back room that's going to be by committee with alexander madison leading the way and you know technically um you know cook averaged 4.5 yards per rush last season all All the other running backs, that's Madison Boone and Abdullah, averaged 4.9.

Not that, I mean, and granted, it was limited snaps. There's, you know, not a whole ton that you can really take from that stat. But the one thing you can concede is they'd be okay. It's not like the season would go to complete hell. They could probably survive. They could be a playoff team. But, like, you take your but you increase your Super Bowl chances significantly if you have a running back like Dalvin Cook on the roster.

I don't think that this team, as much as the signs point to the money with Kirk Cousins, and they should be able to expect a lot more than they got from Kirk at certain moments this season when you're paying him $66 million on a two-year extension um i think there are people who still truly believe that kirk needs dalvin to survive out there all right before we continue the discussion i have to tell you about bet online there is no shortage of action going on right now in our exclusive partner bet online nascar is back and bet online has hundreds of other games events and sports to

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the biggest areas where that come from are A, I mean, he turns negative runs into positive runs. So if you are going to have normally a second and 13, he can tread tackles and turn that into a second and eight, which is still gives you a chance to run play action and things like that. Um, the other part of it is that Kirk cousins average eight yards of pass behind the line of scrimmage last year. So that was throwing short passes to Delvin cook that were turning into first downs on a regular basis. And he was the league leader in yards after catch for running backs. That's a big deal to be helping Kirk Cousins do nothing except for throw a screen pass and then turn it

into something. He's a decent enough pass blocker. I think that helps a lot, but the biggest area is the game planning from defenses that whether it's right or wrong for defenses to do this is maybe debatable among the statistics community. But if you think about what every defensive coordinator says, when they go into Vikings week, where do you think that starts? We have to stop Delvin cook. If it's Madison, who I have a lot of respect for, I think he's very good at his job. Or if it's Mike Boone, who has not proven really at all. I mean, the week 17, he had his ups and downs, but aside from that, uh, you know, we haven't seen anything that says, Oh, this guy's the next franchise running back. But even if those guys are just as good in yards per carry, that's not how opposing defenses are looking at it. Opposing defenses. No, if you don't game plan for Delvin

cook, you will get embarrassed with 75 yard touchdown runs as say as, say, Green Bay gave him, what, 140 or 150 yards in Week 2 last year and almost lost with the Vikings basically just having success on the ground. So they know that what San Francisco did to Green Bay, for example, can happen with Delvin Cook only without needing a great offensive line. That's another part of it, too. Madison would come in later in the game when defenses have been worn down. Cook was the guy that was taking 20 carries right off the bat against some of the best defensive lines in the NFL and still making a difference. So I think when you're talking about from the Viking side, do you need him? How much do you want him? Should you pay him? I mean, I think that there's a pretty good case that when someone is a top five running back in the league,

you should do everything you can to keep them. Yeah, agreed. And it's just not going to be the type of figure that he probably expects to get. And that's okay. Like, I mean, you're just not, I know that we saw kind of this spike the last few years and even in 2020 with Christian McCaffrey's deal. I don't even think Christian McCaffrey's worth $16 million a year. Just when you look at the running back value in the NFL, I'm not on the side of so many of our friends at PFF with don't pay the running backs, don't ever sign them to second contracts. I don't believe that, especially when Dalvin Cook is your offense. But in that same vein, I think you kind of have to come

to the negotiation table here with more realistic expectations. And if Christian McCaffrey money was something that you were yearning for initially, or maybe it was just a negotiation tactic to try to get, see where the Vikings were going to come in. And then you go back to the table and see how you can go from there. These things take time and these things take both sides going back and forth and back and forth and just trying to figure it out.

So, I mean, I don't think there's anything wrong with that. But it's just, you know, he's not going to be making top dollar. Like, he's still going to get mega bucks, don't get me wrong. But if you're expecting to go in there and walk away as the richest running back in NFL history, right now it's just not going to happen. So, when you talk about, like, our friends at PFF and saying not paying running backs, the thing about that is broad statements are sometimes taken to apply to every single situation. And when it comes to the Vikings cap situation, it's going to go from absolutely abysmal to

pretty good as long as the cap remains somewhat of where it is, which we have no idea. I mean, I get that question on Twitter, but I don't know. I mean, could we see 20,000 fans at games? Could we see 40,000? Could we see full stadiums? I really don't know. I tend to think that we're going to start with very small crowds and build up from there, but the NFL makes so much money off his TV deals. I don't think it's like major league baseball. I don't think they need the gate anywhere as much. And I don't think you're going to see the salary cap plummet for next year. So let's say it even just stays static. I mean, you can move on from Riley Reif.

You can restructure Anthony Barr. You can restructure or move on from Kyle Rudolph. I mean, there are lots of opportunities to have your salary cap work out just fine and then have Delvin's cap number build up to when there's the 17-game season by the final year of his deal when his cap hit is going to be the most, which is really what the Vikings aim to do with Kirk Cousins in the third year of his deal. It's a $45 million cap hit, which will be 15% if it goes up with a 17 game season. And that's not that bad. So, you know, all these things have to be considered and Courtney, I just don't know

which way all of that's going to go, but let's say it stays equal. It looks to me like the Vikings are in a very favorable cap situation because of a lot of their key players are set to be on their rookie deals by 2021. Yeah. And that's, that's the situation you want to be in if you're building a team in a five-year Superbowl window. Right. And we know how they tend to backload these contracts with, you know, abnormally, you know, astronomically high cap hits that you anticipate will always lead to a restructure. I mean, if they're paying Kirk Cousins that much in 2022, they're not in a good spot at all.

So, I mean, they've got to figure out what they need to do, you know, in order to keep those guys happy and, you know, be able to work out restructures. But like you mentioned, I mean, think about how many guys they have currently, the way that they use their draft strategy this year. You get your replacement for Stephon Diggs. By that time, he's still going to be on his rookie deal. Let's say it was a three-year contract extension for Dalvin Cook that it would be synced up with Kirk Cousins, essentially.

So you've got Jeff Gladney on a rookie deal. You've got Ezra Cleveland on a rookie deal, Justin Jefferson. You're still in a good position then to whatever Daniil Hunter is going to make on his third contract. You can still pay him very handsomely. I think that you're in a good spot because we're expecting the cap to go up. What, like $200 million next year? You know, in the new CBA, the TV deals, all of that stuff is really important. But, you know, from the perspective of Dalvin Cook and why you need to get something done now, I mean, don't let this, I don't fault him.

And they've been routinely good about rewarding players going into that final year of their rookie deal to figure it out, to keep them there for the long haul. But, you know, I just, he's not going to take a team-friendly deal here. Like, even if they come back at, you know, the number has to be higher than 10. And I think that, like we mentioned, a David Johnson figure at 13 is probably where they're going to settle

if it does come to that, which I anticipate it will. I was going to say, so tell me what the date is and what the dollars are that you think this gets worked out. The date would be when, where is it? June 8th.

I would say like July 27th. Let's be there. Are they would be in camp at that point. I think it'll get done before the 1st of August, like early on in camp, because remember with the new CBA, those fines don't just get waived like for the days that you miss um so that's something you have to factor in too dalvin like you said doesn't want to shoot

himself in the foot with that um but i think the david johnson number and his cap hit is 11.156 million this year like the vikings don't necessarily have to structure it that way but you can certainly pay him to where you know he has a 10.2 million dollar base salary this year and he's got you know obviously a roster bonus so it basically comes out to an average of 13 million dollars a year Dalvin can do they can do that with him like give him a three-year deal 39 million dollars maybe guarantee like 22 or 23 million of that. And I think that he would take that deal. Yep. I I'm in total agreement with you on the timeframe. I think that when we've seen these negotiations even get into the very beginning of camp, it doesn't last very long with Stefan digs or with Xavier roads. It was just a couple of days into camp. It's not always right before. And the Vikings just have a tendency to work these things out. And it seemed like they

played a little bit of hardball with Anthony Barr, but eventually came back to where he wanted to be and they figured it out. Now, what is interesting to me is the approach of saying we're holding out now, as opposed to getting much closer to training camp. I guess that's making it very clear publicly that Delvin Cook is not very happy with, or his side is not very happy with the current offers. But that's an interesting play considering everything that's been going on in the NFL news cycle recently. And also with, you know, the pandemic going on that having it be public that he's

going to hold out a month and a half from now is, I don't know. I mean, I wonder if to some people that they would say, whatever, man, like, why are you even putting this out there right now? As opposed to say the week before camp. Yeah. It's not going to force the Vikings hand. Like they don't have to do anything right now. I mean, there's, they could wait as long as they want here. I mean, yes, Dalvin has leverage because they know that they need him, but I think they're willing to concede

that if they want to play hardball and if he's, they're not going to accept the offer that they bring to the table when they inevitably start talking again, whenever that is that, you know, they know that Dalvin doesn't want to be a restricted free agent after the 2020 season. You screw yourself over if you sit out this year. Although that's the narrative that's being spread out there right now, that will happen, I highly doubt that because it's not advantageous to the player

given what was said in the cba in the in the language in article 8 section 1b like there's not any benefit for dalvin to approach it that way so i do think that you know fairly soon this will come to a conclusion and he will be with the vikings he's not going anywhere like that's period point blank dalvin cook is not going anywhere um he's just not going to get top the-of-the-line dollar. But he will make considerable money. I have no doubt about that. Okay, ESPN.com is where you can get your reaction,

and mine can come right to your email at purpleinsider.com if you want to go sign up if you already happen to be a subscriber. And that's one of the things that happens is when there's breaking news, we get you a podcast and written analysis as soon as we can. So Courtney, thanks for your time on this surprise Monday news dump. I mean, usually we expect these things on Friday, not Monday afternoons. I know. It's a new world here. This is our new normal. Exactly. All right, Courtney. Well, it was fun to have our first emergency podcast. First of many here on Purple Insider. Go to sodastick.com to get all your original Minnesota sports inspired goods.

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