Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Eric Eager explains the Vikings strange betting odds and point differential

Episode Date: December 7, 2022

Matthew Coller gets together with Sumer Sports Show host and former PFF data scientist Eric Eager to talk about the Vikings' upcoming matchup with the Detroit Lions and why Detroit is favored to win. Plus the Vikings are making headlines because of their low point differential, what does Eric think it means? And they re-litigate the Vikings' decision to trade down as they get set to match up with Jameson Williams.  -- For more of Matthew's Vikings coverage, head to purpleinsider.substack.com For bonus discussions, interview clips, and more videos, check out our YouTube channel! Interact with us on Twitter! @Purple_Insider Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me, formerly of Pro Football Focus, now with Sumer Sports, Eric Eager. And the reason that I sent you a message, Eric, and asked if you could come on the show is because I got fan requests that said they're playing the Lions. You've been calling for the restoration of the roar, really from day one of the offseason this year, that you claimed that the Detroit Lions would be better. That take looked horrendous halfway through the season.

And now all of a sudden there has been some restoration. So we're giving the people what they want. You are back. Welcome. All right. It's good to be on uh just you know love hanging out uh talking football and yeah i mean the roar i i i sent out a twitter poll yesterday and i asked the roar is restored or not restored i think 43 said restored 57 is not restored i think that's probably fair. I think back at this Lions season, as somebody who holds, and before I joined Sumer, I placed some

big bets on over six and a half wins for the Detroit Lions. I placed some to make the playoffs, which I don't think will actually hit. And then if you bet them against the spread every single week, you've made money. But thinking about their season, And, you know, and then if you bet them against the spread every single week, you've made money. But, you know, thinking about their season, I think dating back to the Vikings game in week three, there's some games you probably want to have back if you're a Lions fan, right? The Vikings game, we have a two-touchdown lead, a 10-point lead in the second half. The Miami game, we had a 14-point lead in the first half. Seattle game, we gave up 48 points to Geno Smith.

And obviously the Buffalo Gamerie had a fourth quarter lead against maybe the best football team in the league. So they've had a good season. I think they're a good football team. And I think the betting markets, and I know your listeners, because I love listening to the show, they have mixed views on the betting markets. I think it's probably the most unbiased view of how good the teams are.

They basically have Minnesota and Detroit as equally strong teams, which I think is every bit the trophy of restoration that I needed going into this week. Okay, but you're going to have to explain that because you used to do the PFF forecast podcast where you would focus a ton on the gambling markets. And even though I do not bet on sports, this is how I would learn about what that tells you and even how to use it in a conversation about how strong a football team is. And I saw our friend Kevin Cole, who unfortunately just lost his job at PFF, but he has done great stuff on this sort of thing, like giving the expected points based on how a team played, trying to remove the noisiness. And guess what teams are right next to each other on his chart when you do that? Detroit and Minnesota. So I'd love you to

explain how that works, because every week what I see is these gamblers are disrespecting the Vikings. And I keep trying to say like I don't think that's how it works I mean I don't think that there's a disrespect element I think it really comes down to and this is what I'm gonna have you break down eventually but like the point differential matters to these people uh you're going on the road you just played over 80 plays against the New York Jets in an incredibly physical and difficult game. And if you remember, they came back from Buffalo after a physical game. And what happened?

They fell off the side of the earth in that game. So I think when you're trying to predict where something is going, there's a lot more that goes into it than just, hey, you're 10-2 and they're 5-7. So those are the facts. Yeah. I mean, the fact of the matter is, matter is past results matter for a lot of reasons. The fact that the Vikings are 10-2 means that they can rest players. They can do some things that a team like Detroit, which probably needs to win four out of the next five, can do to make the playoffs.

So no one's saying that what the Vikings have done, 10-2, they're probably going to win the NFC North. I mean, it's almost a surety at this point. They're going to make the playoffs. They might have a top-two seed. No one, and I know I've sparred before with Aaron Nagler about this with Packers fans, and, you know, ultimately, did they ever end up winning the Super Bowl, boys?

No. So maybe some of those close wins don't matter as much. But, like, there's – so the point is past results don't help you as much when you're trying to predict future performances because, as you can imagine, like, what's the difference in last game if the Jets score that final touchdown? Do people come out of U.S. Bank Stadium with a different taste in their mouth? And yes, of course they do. Or if Hunter Henry hangs onto that ball against the Vikings on Thanksgiving night, or Taylor Heineke doesn't throw an interception against him.

Like, you play a game that's about 150 plays, and every single one of those plays has equal weight, in my opinion, from a predictive standpoint but some plays are obviously more high leverage than others and so the the problem is you look at jets vikings you're like well the jets outgained the vikings uh kirk cousins average whatever was like five yards of pass attempt or less and you know and the defense gave up a ton of yards defense 31st and yards per play allowed i know EPA, they're a little bit better because of turnovers and things like that. There's a lot of information gathered in there,

and there's very little information in the Boolean 1-0 as to whether or not the team won. And so I think that that's where it's going. Now, to your point about, like, oh, betters are disrespecting the Vikings, as somebody who has you know and this year i didn't have a huge opinion on them i think my biggest opinion on minnesota was that kevin o'connell was going to win coach of the year which seems like a decent bet i don't think he will i think he'll finish second or third but it was still a good bet but when years where i was heavy on vikings under like people all you're just you just you're just a

hater you say i'm like i got myater. You're saying, I'm like, I got my, my family's got to eat. Like, I'm not going to bet under because I have something against, you know, Vikes guy, 79 on Twitter.

Like, and, and, and I can tell you people who bet for a living. Cause I just, I, you know, I bet to make a little bit of extra money.

I win, but I don't, I don't feed my family, you know, just with betting. The people that are betting the $10,000 on a game, the ones that are making their living doing that, scratching out 2% edges here and there,

they don't care about the Vikings. They care about where's the value in these markets. And I think I misspoke a little bit. If you look at Pinnacle Sports, which is a sports book that I do, I guess the Lions are minus 130, but the point spread is minus one. You can make it like minus one, minus two as the point spread. Home field advantage in the NFL was traditionally three. Now you can probably call it about one and a half, two.

So that's kind of where my statement was that the Vikings had a lower – had a similar power rating as Detroit. I think you could still make that case. It's probably a little bit to the Vikings, but be that as it may, they're very much equal in the markets, and they're very much equal in the markets because books that take $10,000 bets and, to a certain extent, much more than that on game day, their risk departments are saying, look, if we hang a

number like this, we are not as exposed as the average public would think we were. Because again, if there were systematic biases against the Minnesota Vikings in the betting markets, sharp bettors could come in and exploit them. And there simply are not, because again, there are not systematic biases in sports betting markets over time. So that's where it's coming in. So if you're offended by the fact the 5 and 7 Detroit Lions are basically the same as the 10 and 2 Minnesota Vikings, you better hope that the Vikings get better down the stretch because I think that that's the only way I think to prove that wrong. Yeah, and that's kind of really been the theme of this week leading up to this game on the show is that they've done enough to get to this point and they don't have

to give it back. And I've always thought, as you know, that if you win 12 games, you are a legitimate Superbowl contender and your season was a success. So they're almost there. And I would guarantee that they get there. I would put all of my money from my family on the fact that they get to 12 wins because they've got Indy and Chicago and these teams that are pretty bad. And that means that everything was a success. The idea to go all in on this offseason, to bring in veteran players, Z'Darrius Smith, Patrick Peterson, to bring back Kirk Cousins, that it's all been a success because you put yourself in

position to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I think that's a different discussion from how you stack up to the rest of the league, which is our constant question. It's why people do power rankings every week. The essential question in football is, can this team win the whole thing that's what everybody is asking uh if their team is is in the playoffs and when you look at the differential i started poking around this thing with the point differential and there's a few factors that stuck out that not all one score games are really one score games and 538 did something on this a couple of years ago which i used as my kind of guide for it where like if the vikings have a 90 chance to win with five minutes left in the game it's not really a one score game that means that you were ahead of the other team and just finished off what you

should have done so i only found four games where it was between a 40 and 60% chance or the win probability crossed over that, like in the Detroit game where it went from 90% Detroit to a Vikings win and one play basically. But there was only four games in that that fit that, but of course they're four and O in those games. And if they were O and four in those games that had pretty random endings, they'd be a 500 team. And so this is how you kind of work back to that whole expected win-loss and things like that.

If they had split them, which you would expect, then they're an 8-4 team, which actually sounds more right to me. If you said, what kind of team is this? At the very beginning of the season, my thing was, if they mostly healthy and Kevin O'Connell, it makes good on the promises and does not turn into the next Joe judge or Matt Patricia, you're probably like a 10 or 11 win team. So we thought that they would be pretty good. But when you have, when you go four for four in those completely random games, well, then it's going to put you at a 10 and two team. But how do we factor all of that with what their strength is in comparison to the other teams and how it could be predictive? Because this is where I looked at

their EPA for passing. It's not at the threshold that you need to be for a Superbowl team. They also have the easiest schedule of defenses coming up in the league over the last five games. So this could be like classic Kirk cousins gets hot, you know, against the bad defenses and puts up big numbers. But there's also order of operations here. Like if you put Indy last week, instead of the jets, their point differential might be plus 30, like because Indy can't play football so that like all these things are kind of swimming around in my head. It's like this point differential thing is fascinating, but also the season's not over yet. Yeah, you're right.

And I agree. I think eight and four is more characteristic of who they are also because of the schedule that they face. Like if you would have told me preseason that they would have gotten to face, you know, a backup quarterback in Washington, a backup quarterback in New Orleans, a backup quarterback in New York, you know, a backup quarterback in Miami Orleans, a backup quarterback in New York, a backup quarterback in Miami, and so on. Now, I know some of those guys are now the starters of the team,

but that's the point, right? A guy who wasn't starting at the beginning of the season is going to be an underdog against a team with Kirk Cousins, who's a good, not great quarterback. So, yeah, eight and four sounds more characteristic. I think when you want to power eight teams, I know you go to pro football focus, like actually, you know, I made that ELO rating their ELO ratings a little higher because it does, you know, they do grade.

Well, if you look at PFS player grades, they're probably, I think they're in the top 10 of player grades. And, and I think like, when you look at kind of how they were constructed, I talked about this on, on my podcast, the Sumer Sports Show with Thomas Dimitrov and Eric Eager. We talked about the stars and scrubs. And I think when you're in Minnesota and you have, you know, Christian Derrissaw playing really well until he got hurt,

Brian O'Neill being a very good player, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, although I think Cook has probably passed his prime, Z'Darrius Smith, Danell Hunter, Patrick Peterson, Harrison Smith playing okay, Eric Hendricks is a good football player. Those guys can lift your grades up, and so that helps them maybe relative to a team like Detroit, who's more flat. Their quarterback is playing better than Cousins this year, but he's not as good as Cousins, I think, if you grade it all out.

Offensive line is pretty good, but there's no elite player on the offensive line they're all just pretty good defensively like they were a mess at the beginning of the year and so like when i was making betting models for pff i would take the grades and i'd adjust them for who you played i come up with a point spread there i would take you know the epa stuff and i would adjust for opponent that's kind of like what football outsiders does with DVOA. DVOA has been pretty nasty to the Vikings this year for a combination of lack of efficiency offensively. I mean, you look at Kirk Stats, this is his worst year, probably since he was a starting quarterback in the NFL. And then, you know, you have bad opponents. So that's a cocktail for having a crappy DVOA rating.

And then you look at coaching, you look at scheme. And I actually think the Vikings have been pretty decent schematically, defensively, so that's going to help them. So all those things are what you make. And there's no one thing that can tell you, oh, it's EPA per pass. That's the great thing that can tell you the difference between two teams because if there was, then again, these casinos would go broke and you'd be rich, right?

So that's kind of where you come up with those numbers. And I think when it tries to paint a picture about the Minnesota Vikings, it paints a complicated one, a one where, you know, I think Kevin O'Connell's doing a lot of great things end of game, but is that the reason they're winning close games? No, close games are noise. Like, you know, so you can go back in time and say, at least he's not actively losing these games like Mike Zimmer.

But I don't think that it's prescriptive as far as, like, if they get in a close game in the playoffs, they're going to win that one because they do X, Y, and Z. I don't think that that's the case. But there are players on this team that are playing really good football, and it's good to acknowledge that as well, I don't think that that's the case, but there are players on this team that are playing really good football. And it's good to acknowledge that as well, even while saying on a neutral field, they'd be basically a pick them with the Detroit Lions. And this is why it's also weird.

And you mentioned the PFF grades as a whole. Now, last year, the number one graded team in the NFL in the regular season was the Los Angeles Rams, and they won the Super Bowl. That doesn't always happen, but it certainly does say good things about what you have as a roster. But then there's all these conflicting things because with everything you say like that, you could say the opposite of right, but they're 31st in yards per play allowed. And there's no team that's going to win the Superbowl with an okay offense.

And with the 31st yards per play allowed when you have to face potentially an offense like Dallas in the playoffs or something like that. But then again, there's not that many Dallas's in the playoffs. There's only really two teams that would terrify you on the subject of degree of difficulty for a schedule. What a confusing mistress this thing is because pro football reference thinks the vikings have had a really difficult schedule by defenses they mostly have outside of chicago and detroit and i am i don't have much respect for the packers defense either but you know you have new orleans that has a pretty good defense and then of course the jets the bills um i mean you you've got the patriots like some defenses that are really good it's like well you could say why is kirk played

below average football for kirk standards one reason might be that they've faced i think it's the number four through eight defenses they've played five five games against four five six seven and eight which is just kind of strange but they went three and two in those games. One of them, they lost 40 to three. Another one, they put up over 30 points on the Buffalo Bills and another, they put up over 30 points on New England. The question of whether the Vikings had a difficult schedule. But the other thing is that pro football reference would probably factor in the Miami Dolphins who weren't starting their quarterback Tua in that game and I think that they lose that game if Tua is starting. Well and the Vikings also gained like 13 yards that whole game so. Right right that's the thing is like they had I think 175 yards passing in that game and that's

what I mean is that it has been super difficult to figure out when they played Washington I was like meh pretty bad team now Washington might end up in the playoffs. Like this, this is a very difficult thing to figure out whether you can argue that they've had a difficult schedule or not. Yeah. I think, you know, the fact is, is when you play like, so, and I posted this tweet out, like a couple of preseason bets I made were Washington over and, and New York giants over because they because their schedules were just so soft, right? And Washington is one win away from going over their season win total. The Giants have already met it.

They need one more win to go over. That tie, by the way, is terrible because it doesn't do any – it's basically just a loss if you're betting overs preseason. But they had easy schedules. The Eagles had a top-10 easy schedule going in. And Dallas Cowboys were kind of middle of the pack having that first-place schedule on their end, which matters a little bit more now that there's 17 games. And so those defenses are playing weaker offenses,

which means when you sort of go in the circle and say, okay, well, then they're going to appear better to the Vikings. And so you do have to do opponent adjustment to make sure there. The AFC East, like you said, the Jets, the Bills, the Dolphins, they're all appearing to have good defenses coming into the year. And they, I think, have all been, with the exception of Buffalo, who's been injured, they've all had, I think, decent defenses to a certain extent.

So that certainly does go against it. New Orleans, a good defense, but, you know, Kirk played fine in that game. So, yeah, that is maybe the sticky wicket here is, you know, if the Vikings offense can get hot and get some, you know, confidence against some weaker defenses down the stretch, maybe that can be the elixir and their true fundamental ability can match the record that they have because there's

such a chasm there right now. So that's one where, but then you get in the playoffs and I think that the really tricky thing for them, again, as we're trying to predict the future for the Vikings, San Francisco is a great defense. Dallas has a great multiple defense and one that matches up horribly if you're the Vikings. Eagles are similar. I think the Eagles are a little bit weaker in run defense, but really good in the passing game. Tampa's defense, no slouch at all. From a perspective of getting in the playoffs, I don't think that there are any maybe Seattle's an easy defense to go against, but even that they are better than expectation like i i think with respect to closing the season strong they might they might face you know some some easier opponents

with respect to winning in the playoffs which has always been the problem with kirk cousins uh you know in theory because he's really never made it other than once uh it's it's going to be like he's going to face these brick houses and can he overcome them? Folks, it is time once again for us to have a discussion about liquid death. Now, here's the thing. My wife has been one of those people for a really long time that has carried around a water bottle and it's metal and it's gross and she drops it on the ground all the time. And so I said, look, why don't we try some liquid death? You're a big water drinker.

Give it a shot. And she has fallen in love with not only me, but liquid death as well. And it looks like sometimes when she's driving around that she is drinking a tall boy beer while she's driving, but it is indeed liquid death water. And one of the reasons that she likes it is that it comes in aluminum cans. The name liquid death comes from bringing death to plastic and liquid death gives 10% of their profits to end plastic bottles, which are not easily recyclable. And that's another part that my wife is enjoying about

liquid death. And I am also drinking it as well, especially the lime flavored sparkling water, which is very good. So make sure you give that a try. Go to Hy-Vee, Target, wherever you get your groceries, go to the water aisle, look for the can that looks actually like a tall boy beer. And if you want to learn more about where to find it, go to liquiddeath.com slash insider. That's liquiddeath.com slash insider. If they face a defense like the Jets, which really to me, the Jets are Washington. They have a good receiver. They have some playmakers. They have a great defensive line,

not exactly perfect in other areas, but the Vikings played extremely close against both of those teams. I don't know that you want to face Washington necessarily because they might just blast the interior of your offensive line and cause a turnover or something like that. I mean, the Jets came close to causing a couple turnovers. They certainly just whipped Kirk throughout the day and made things very difficult. But I look at some of these other teams and I think, all right, well, the Geno Smith thing, that would make life difficult for you because of the receivers and he's playing well, but their defense is garbage. And then you have the New York Giants,

who I think are just not a good football team really at all. But you never know. They're well coached, but I don't know. They're just so unimpressive. Like they have a negative point differential. I don't buy Daniel Jones as actually a good quarterback. But then, and this is what I mean, how there's always a Mike White and Mac Jones just had good days against you.

So like, are you really looking at anybody else's quarterback and going like, oh no, we'll just take care of business against that guy. When you get to the playoffs, this is a longer way of asking, you know, Vikings fans are now going to watch every week for how this thing is shuffling around. Who should they be rooting for and against? And I also just want to throw in there that just as we were recording, Adam Schefter reported that there is a possibility Jimmy Garoppolo could be back in the playoffs. So that's one in the divisional round that I don't think you want to face.

That one is pretty clear that if Jimmy G is playing for the 49ers, you don't want any part of that. And the same thing for Dallas and Philly, which would have to be deep into the playoffs. But for the start of them, who should the Vikings be rooting for and against? Yeah, I think you want one of the NFC East teams. Washington, New York Giants, one of those teams. So a situation where all four NFC East teams made the playoffs, I think you're in a good spot if you're the Vikings.

Because I think Seattle, like Geno Smith, like, you know, earmuffs people, but Geno Smith's a better quarterback right now than Kirk Cousins. Like he's just playing better. He has more confidence. They trust him more. One statistic that I pulled up was the Vikings have the fourth worst pass rate win ahead at the end of games by one score or less. And their average depth of target on those passes are negative 1.5 yards.

They like the, you know, the truth, you know, people don't want to hear it, but the truth is the Vikings don't trust their quarterback. And, you know, where Seattle weirdly got rid of a quarterback that everybody thought was a hall of fame to your guy, brought in a guy that no one thought was any good, and they trust him, and he's been amazing, right? So in that game, you are going to have the quarterback disadvantage, and your defenses are about similar. In fact, I think Seattle, you can make a case,

is more athletic defensively than the Vikings are. And so in that game, I would be scared, but not obviously as much as the top tier teams. But I think you want to get into a game with New York But I think you want to get into a game with New York. I think you want to get into a game with Washington at the very beginning. I think depending upon, again, some of the weaknesses there, you might want to see Detroit make the playoffs just because I think Detroit, you have Derek Goff who I think, again, I think he's playing better than Cousins this year.

All the statistics, except for PFF grades, would indicate that. And they're certainly more efficient offensively than the Vikings in the passing game. I think the defense, though, is about as creaky as yours is. And you already have experience beating them once at home this year. I think that would be another team that the Vikings would like to see in the playoffs. I think if you get stuck, let's say you fall off a little bit and you play the 4-5 game, I don't think that that'll happen because Tampa Bay is squarely underneath you. And I imagine you'd almost have to lose out and they'd have to win out.

But let's say you get in that three spot. Let's say Dallas falls off a little bit and you play the 3-6 game against Dallas. You might as well start thinking about what you're doing next year because I just don't think that you match up really well with that team at all. As evidenced by the previous game that they played, I do think that Vikings could play a closer game against them, but they are the worst possible matchup. They have a very good quarterback, unbelievable wide receiver,

great running game that can beat the Vikings defensive line and their own defensive line from hell. That's driving everybody insane. So, yeah, I think that that's very clearly not the matchup where, see, I really struggle between Seattle, Washington. And I guess if we're throwing Detroit in there, I had already kind of tossed Detroit out as far as playoffs, but I really shouldn't. Like if you're in the, what was the graphic that they used on ESPN sniffing around? So if you look at Detroit schedule, it goes Minnesota at home, at Jets, at Panthers, home to Bears, and then the Packers I think will be dead by week 18. So like if you're in Detroit and you can win four out of five, I think the, it really hurt them that Washington and New York ended in a tie because basically one of the, they have the tiebreaker against both those teams. They don't have the tiebreaker against Seattle.

In fact, they lost to them earlier in the season. So like there is, there's a path to Detroit making the playoffs. It's a long shot, but it, you know but their schedule is not a murderer's road on the stretch, starting with, again, a team that they're favored against this weekend. They also needed Buffalo. They needed that game to beat the Bills where they threw it away, as a Dan Campbell team will at the end of a game. But I don't think the Vikings would want to face Detroit because the familiarity of a division opponent, I think, is always a little bit scary.

And Detroit, even when they lost almost every game, they still beat the Vikings and they still played them close. And then earlier this year, they should have won that game. I mean, they were like right there out playing the Vikings for the entire game. I don't think that's a team you want to face because even if their defense on paper isn't that good, they really know you. And they really know you extremely well. Now Aaron Glenn's got like, what, three shots at you already. This is going to be the fourth for this week. And I think you'd rather have a team that's a little less familiar.

Washington is a hard one to talk me into because of their D line, but Gino Smith on the other side, if he continues to play like Rich Gannon in 2002, then, uh, you know, that's going to be a tough one for the Vikings as well. I mean, it's the playoffs. No one's giving you the easiest matchup and we've seen some strange results in those wildcard games and things like that. So we know it's not going to be easy, but I think it's an interesting thing to now keep an eye on like four or five

different teams to see where they land. Now, another thing I wanted to discuss with you is with Detroit, Jamison Williams will be playing the football against the Vikings. Revenge game, if you will. I don't know if it'll get Quasey fired the way it got John Robinson fired if Jamison Williams has a big day. I'd be surprised. The guy's coming off an ACL.

He's barely played I mean he might get like 10 snaps in this game they'll try to throw him the ball once or twice just to prove a point but as we sort of re-litigate that now we talked about it a lot then I liked the idea of rebuilding the secondary but I question moving that far out of a position that Aaron Donald was taken in number 13 overall. Also, I think that if you're talking about questioning it, look at what Adam Thielen has done this season. He's been much more of a number three than he has been a number two. And what are you doing next year with the number two position? Is it, uh, it's not KJ Osborne. It's not Jalen

Rager. So what are you doing with that spot for next year? And that could have been your Jamison Williams coming back as you're just headed toward the playoffs. And Lewis seen out for the year. Not his fault, but he was safety number four. I know that we should give time to draft classes and things, but we don't have that. We're doing the podcast today and having this discussion today.

So as they go to play Jamison Williams, how do we look at the draft class as of this moment? It doesn't look great, man. I mean, I think, you know, it's always hard to look at a draft class, you know, in year one, because they're also drafting for positions that take a while to, you know, Minnesota fans have been spoiled Harrison Smith came in as a rookie and was great right away um you know they they've had others you know cornerback you know Xavier Xavier Rhodes took like two or three years before he was any good so the Andrew Booth pick you know and and Rhodes was a guy who was injured a little bit early on so um you know Andrew Booth can he come around i i mean you also have to ask about the christian watson thing right like where he is you know leading the lead i mean

he's the favorite to be offensive rookie of the year now uh despite you know having rarely played in the first part of the season and so um you know the the quacey was certainly spreading out the risk in that draft and i and i get it because you know i think one of the other parts of the what we're talking about today is you need to use mathematics to properly evaluate how good your team is. I think the biggest mistake Adolfo Mensah and his staff could do in the offseason is go in and believe that they're fundamentally a 13-4 team or 14-3 team or whatever they end up being. I think that that would be a mistake, right? And if they were to shove more money into future years to hang on to some of these aging veterans for a little, you know, to try to chase what's happening this year, I think that would be a mistake.

But part of not doing that is hitting on a few draft picks, right? Like, I think about Kansas City. Like, they were a team that just made the afc title game trade their second best player and a lot of the reason they could do that was because they hit on trey smith they hit on nick bolton they hit on uh creed humphrey um they they noah gray a tight end who's a good depth guy for them like they went out and drafted a lot of players who all hit and now you can say okay well we got a roster now. If you're the Vikings and you say, okay, well, I'm staring down next year and I'm looking at Cousins, right? I'm looking at Thielen.

I'm looking at Harrison Smith. I'm looking at Danell Hunter. I'm looking at Zedaria Smith. I'm looking at all these guys that you got kind of the best out of them this year as far as team-level results. Of course, for individual players players it's always varying and like do i have do i feel like because of the unsuccessful nature of any of my draft picks do i have to buy into that because there's not a lot of money left for them from a cap perspective next season that that's where this draft class you want to say okay take it take a deep breath Brian Asamoah

was not supposed to start this year uh you know Andrew Booth was not supposed to start this year Louis Seen was probably supposed to start this year and didn't and you take a step back and say okay well let them let them evolve into what they're going to be but you have the 10 and 2 start you have the expectations you have all of that coupled with age aging veterans who you have the 10-2 start. You have the expectations. You have all of that coupled with aging veterans who you have to make decisions about. It's going to be a really interesting offseason for the Vikings. And I think one positive about having a person like Adolfo Mensah in this chair there who understands difference between results and process, I would stake more money on him making the right choices relative to maybe uh somebody who they've had there in the past tis the season for you to

buy the best minnesota sports themed apparel in the world for all of your friends and family go to sodastick.com they have great holiday shopping deals there and use the promo code insider. That is S O T A S T I C K.com code insider for all of your holiday shopping. Yeah, I guess when it comes to this, it's very subjective when it comes to that process. It depends on whose draft charts you like. It depends on like what you thought Lewis Seen as a prospect. I know that a lot of people had him higher, expected him to go higher, and maybe they thought they got a good deal there.

For me, and I'm not trying to do a told-you-so thing, but it was like we've seen Thielen and where he was at and where receivers are in their 30s. And the Kenny Galladay's of the world or the Allen Robinson's of the world who are really good, but rely a lot on contested catches, rely a lot on route running that you lose one step from a four, five and a half 40. And all of a sudden it's a four, seven 40. And you're basically a tight end out there trying to run like deep routes. And I think he's still effective. That's not like kick them off the team.

But when you look at just the future and who you're pairing Justin Jefferson with, I don't, I don't think there's any question after this season that they're going to go to Jefferson and be like, see, we can win, sign the deal right now. All this money, take it. Yeah. And that's the big one. I know you can smooth things out because Jefferson, you know, you can smooth things out for sure.

But Jefferson is going to get a $30 million APY deal this year. And, you know, coming off of a rookie deal, especially one in the 20s, there's not a ton you can do as far as, oh, we're going to front – we're going to backload and all this kind of stuff. And so that's something that has to happen. That is a down – that is something that has to happen if you are going to backload and all this kind of stuff and and so that's something that has to happen that is a down that that is something that has to happen if you are going to and i know the wills you know they don't want to make a move that will piss off the fan like that they want the fan base happy more than anything you know even more than winning sometimes like i and i i think that's a

big one but what jason fitzgerald said on his podcast is over the cap podcast and what my fit your your favorite podcasters favorite podcast i think that you know he said you can do all this silly uh restructures right you can go on over the cap and say oh if we push all the money back we do all the optimal stuff we have this much cap space but they're caught like michael thomas in new orleans like you can do all that stuff but that guy's on your team now. And, and, and the Vikings are figuring out that from that, from Thielen's perspective, for example, you can push his deals back, but he's on your team then. And once the wheels fall off of him, still on your team. And so that, that is where I think the,

the cap is fake. People are kind of, they, they're stuck with the holding the bag here. You know, literally in many ways that you, you can't just continue to pay for today with tomorrow's money because you're going to have yesterday's players on your roster then. Yeah. And I think this goes back to the, like, could you have seen this coming with him being more of a wide receiver

three and needing that other person to pair with Jefferson for now and the future. And the answer was yes, you could have seen that coming. And could you have seen it coming that the 32nd overall pick would need much more development than someone who's a top 15? And the answer is probably yes. Although I'm not declaring Jamison Williams great. I mean, just anyone who they would have picked there. But when you trade down that far, that's the risk that you take. If you don't get a first round draft pick for the following season is that the odds of that guy becoming great versus 32 are just very different.

And so we will, and I think fairly look at Christian Watson and, you know, there's no reason to pay attention to the Packers other than Aaron Nagler's tweets that you mentioned, but you know, like Christian Watson has been amazing for the second half of this year. That's one guy you handed to the Packers other than Aaron Nagler's tweets that you mentioned but you know like Christian Watson's been amazing for the second half of this year that's one guy you handed to the Packers and so if the same thing happens with Jamison Williams it's like well like you know we're all

looking for the person responsible for this great receiver for Detroit so they have to kind of hope that that doesn't come to fruition this year it only kind of matters because you don't have another guy and and we're sitting here going but what if jaylen rager like otherwise we'd be saying what if jameson williams that all comes back right to the thing and i know you know they've won with him this year but that all comes back right like detroit two years ago they they came to jesus and said look the staffer thing he's a great quarterback he was even good enough to win the Super Bowl evidently right but it's time to move on and Kwesi Adapomensa can't go from 30 he he can't move up from 12 to 2 to get the next great thing right because that roster is not like again the Vikings have won this year but let's let's face

facts that roster is a roster that is currently underdogs to Detroit this week. So you can't – but Adapo Mensah with that roster can't – he has to do what he – he felt like he had to because he didn't have that many picks and he didn't have that great of a team. So he's moving back to try to spread the risk out. Detroit, they already got Aiden Hutchinson at two, right? Pick 30 to your point. That Lions team needed superstars. And so they get Aiden Hutchinson at two, right? Pick 30, to your point, that Lions team needed superstars.

And so they get Aiden Hutchinson at two. They also traded Stafford. That second Stafford pick is going to be a top five pick this year, right? Because, again, you play the numbers game, and hopefully for Vikings fans, when Adolfo Mensah plays the numbers games with Detroit and with Green Bay, those subsequent picks end up being better than, you know, the, the Hawkinson pick, you know, ends up going to end up being maybe a little bit, you know, worse for, for Detroit than Envision, but whatever, like Detroit played the numbers game, traded Stafford, right. Got back off, you know, dealt with golf for a couple of years. And one of those picks was pick 32.

They could use that to get picked 12 because they got another first round pick the next year that might even be a top five pick, including their own. And again, it's sort of where you are in that development cycle. The Vikings kept kicking the can down the road. And again, they have to make worse gambles, right? You have to make the Jalen Rager gamble because you decided to make the Kirk Cousins gamble as well. All these things are connected. And again, none of this is to say, I mean, this team might win the Super Bowl and flag slide forever. But it does show team might win the Super Bowl and fly X-5 forever. But it does show the contrast between the decisions you make in one year affect the state of your team the next. And it's just important to make sure that that's in context whenever you think about a deal.

Right. And I'm not putting Jamison Williams in the Hall of Fame yet, OK? So there is just, you know, to say that he might be the next jalen regger i don't know um but i feel like i've just been pounding the table for such a long time of you know if you get one more receiver it doesn't hurt you like it actually only helps you and for them to look at some other positions there and ignore that one and now we look at this roster and we go oh uh if justin if Justin Jefferson doesn't have a huge game nobody does there is and that's why they had to get Hawkinson I think was a good move but you almost had to get Hawkinson because you didn't draft a receiver who could come in and potentially help you right so there is like I know that draft classes are a long-term thing but there is an

impact for this year and your chances to win the Super Bowl to not address that position in any way during the offseason and they have it I mean it's instructive to say the only time the Vikings have really used a high pick on a wide receiver in the last like five to ten years is well maybe five years or so was when they had to replace another one right they have not been forward-looking and and drafted guy like you look Philadelphia, you're looking at Rager. Then you look at Devante Smith. Then you look at A.J. Brown. Like now, like Rager busts, but who cares, right? Because you made multiple gambles and your gamble was an or, right?

Where a lot of the Vikings gambles in the future are ands. I need Louis Scene to work out and Andrew Booth to work out and, and it's like that's a lower probability thing. Whereas if you say, I need Devante Smith or AJ Brown or Jalen Rager, or, you know, to all come around, it's a lot, there's a lot of higher probability there. And again, I think when I take a step back and say Adolfo Mensah, I think had good process in trading.

I just think like the situation he was put in gate, you know, we're all, you're either short stacked or tall stacked at the table, right? Like he was a little short stacked by the previous regime, you know, hopefully over time he can kind of gain a set of assets that can help him have more freedom. It complicates things that they're good this year, or at least that they've won games because it's going to cause 2023 to be a season where if they take a step back and, you know, try to let the roster breathe a little bit, I think fans are gonna be a little

disappointed because of how well they've, they've done record wise this year. Right. Yeah. I mean, the implications of this Jameson Williams Vikings, Louis scene decision, uh, will be kind of felt for the future. But the other thing with Louis scene, that's interesting is like, they probably thought they were drafting to fill a position that they didn't believe they really had. And then it turned out that combine could play that spot. Similarly to Anderson day, ho or Anthony Harris or Xavier woods or all the other people there, but you could see where they'd look at and be like,

this guy has not played. He's, he was a corner two years ago, take the safety who can be dynamic as opposed to to like maybe the guy hangs on for dear life. It just turns out that Cam Bynum is a pretty good football player. And maybe they didn't fully realize how good of a partner he is for Harrison Smith. Okay, last thing, because you are a Minnesota native, of course, as everyone knows. How about Randy Moss in the back there?

Oh, how about that uh and uh so i i ran the pro football reference like team strength where it factors everything your offense your defense point differential and the um strength of schedule and two similar seasons came out for the minnesota vikings to this one, 1994 and 2012, two seasons that you would remember quite well. Which one of those seasons was more like this, would you say, 2012 or 1994? Well, as you know, as somebody who's watched every 1994 game on YouTube, probably with me at times, do not besmirch the, the great Warren moon, Chris Carter, Jake Reed,

Ampley, Randall McDaniel, Todd Stussy's rookie year, John Randall. Who's John Randall on this team? No one. But that, that Vikings team,

I think if you take the second half of 1994 and the first half of 1995 played in something like six or seven overtime games. So that part of it's there, right? This team is not going to have to grind out a Week 17 game to win them division. So I'm going to go more with 2012. Kirk Cousins and Christian Ponder have similar yards per attempt. Those two years, they don't have – Peterson was amazing. Dalvin Cook is a clear step beneath that, especially the year.

But the defense, not great talent-wise, smoke and mirrors. That team, though, started 6-6, had a tough schedule down the stretch. A team – I think Chicago had a winning record. They beat them at Metrodome. Houston was 12-4 that year. They spanked them. They beat the Packers at Metrodome to make the playoffs. And I want to say there was a St. Louis team that was like 7-8-1,

went on the road and beat. So they won four straight down the stretch against really good teams. They had to do that. This Vikings team is going to be clear of any concerns that way. So I would still put it 2012 1994 this is too that was like the first year i watched the vikings growing up two teams too near and dear to my heart this seems not that good well it's definitely not passing like it was that was a record setting putting up the biggest yards and all that sort of stuff uh but i don't

think that their passing um attack was so as 2012. Neither are great fits. But interestingly, those are the ones that it kind of spit out for team strength. But again, five games left to go. You can move up the rankings. You won't reach 1998 for team strength. But, you know, maybe you could be a little better. Maybe a 2015 where you go in with like, hey, this team is worth being a little concerned about. So, Eric, of course, always great to talk with you.

Your new podcast with Thomas Dimitrov, the Sumer Sports Show. That's S-U-M-E-R. And insight from a general manager of the year whenever you want it. So it's a great, great, great, great show to have you on here. So we will get together again, certainly before the Vikings are in the playoffs when things get very, very serious. So I appreciate your time. And hey, you know, maybe by the end of the year, people will be saying the roar has been restored in Detroit.