Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Eric Eager is ready for the Vikings to take shots at QB

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

Eric Eager of SumerSports drops by to discuss the Vikings' approach to the draft and whether a wild swing at quarterback (or even multiple swings?) is a good idea. He talks about predicting certain positions and where you need to take them and why trading down is a viable option. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and join the show. I mean, we go for all the big dogs of the Purple Insider industries here to bring in before the NFL draft. We have Courtney Cronin. We had Gabe Henderson from Vikings.com. And now Eric Eager, Sumer Sports Show. He and Thomas Dimitrov doing incredible pre-draft coverage, breaking down every position. A lot of fascinating stuff there from Thomas's perspective on the scouting side, from yours, Eric, on the analytics side, and as many name drops from random old NFL players that

I've ever heard in any podcast in the history of podcasts. So done on your guys first nfl draft coverage and welcome to the show what is up thank you for that i know a lot the linebacker core was so kind of desolate that we decided just to like pick our favorite linebackers which uh which was good thomas by the way i think in his career it drafted three linebackers that ended up getting 10 million dollars a year in their second contract which was or second or third contract. So he had good insight there, but yeah, it's been, it's been such a fun time. It's been, it's been interesting watching the markets too. I know it doesn't matter necessarily as much to Vikings fans picking at 23, but the top five picks in the draft have been as uncertain as they have been in a long time. Yeah. Well, first, I mean,

when you drop names such as Mark Anderson and Patrick Kearney on the show is like, okay, well, you have really done your draft prep here. But so those are must listens for every position. So go check those out. If you're interested in one particular position for the Vikings, like say quarterback, maybe that's a position that's been talked about a little. So you mentioned the markets and this is always funny to watch. So I try to tell the audience, look, you're going to see a lot of things. You're going to hear a lot of things. And I want you to understand that it's for entertainment purposes only because nobody really knows. And one of the things that I noticed from a couple of years ago was the Mac Jones thing where the markets believed he was going number three. The reporters believed he was going number three and he was not taking number three.

And then last year kind of blew up the whole draft Illuminati and sort of shined a light on all these reports and all these mocks. They don't really tell you anything. And even, you know, there's databases of all these mocks. So you could go back and they can show you that even the best of the best might get like 14, right? 12, right? And that's out of thousands of people who do them. And yet every year we are days before the draft and it's like, Oh, Will Levis is shooting up the draft board.

Vegas says Will Levis, this is happening to him. C.J. Stroud apparently can't identify shapes in a cognition test. Like, what are we doing here? Why do we do this? Is it boredom? Yes. I mean, I think I think that the you could trace it back, I think, to the pandemic, right? I mean, the pandemic, there was always draft props and there was always Super Bowl props. But you trace it back to 2020, like legalized betting was starting to become ubiquitous in states like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Indiana, and now it's about 32 states that coincided with the pandemic, wherein from about mid-March until their operations, needed to provide markets and needed to get people depositing. And so in the 2020 draft, they had so many markets and they were so open for so long. 2021 was a bad year for the books. I know that specifically. And my betting group,

when I was betting at the time, made a ton. And then last year wasn't quite as good, but still the books, I think, were a net loser in that. And so now they've continued to push these markets back a little bit. And interestingly, it takes a while for the markets to mature. Right now, I think you're starting to see higher limits. but at the same time it's also fundamentally different than the betting markets that you have in games where you like you bet vikings minus three and the game hasn't been played yet if you bet who the panthers are going to pick like you already either know like they know right they know who they're taking they've known by the way they've known since they traded up like let's be honest so and so it's a little bit of a different thing and books are weary because they don't get

the same variance like if they hang a bad number in a football game there can be fumbles and all that kind of stuff that happened but if they hang a bad number on the first overall pick like there's not a ton that that can happen like Bryce Young's going first right so you know and so it provides a fundamentally different thing and so I think that we we really wanted to use these markets as a gauge much like for for actual games and stuff as to who was going where and I think we were a little bit overzealous with it so what do we believe what do we not believe right I mean so you know this universe and space is filled with BS but also there are truth to all rumors as a great wide receiver once said and when i went back and looked at the mock draft database

one thing that i noticed was that well last year was pure debauchery from everybody involved who thought that there were four quarterbacks going in the first round all that stuff and there were some skeptics but mostly it was between two and four quarterbacks the first round that is not how it played out at all and the mocks were completely wrong just flat dead wrong that is not the case historically though because if you go back a lot of times there have even been years where the and i and what i mean is the websites that gather the mocks. Grinding the mocks is a great one from our friend Benjamin Robinson, Mock Draft Database I was looking at to kind of do this.

But what I noticed is on both of those sites that kind of do the same thing, they both showed that a lot of times the order is very close, if not right. Where the teams are picking quarterbacks is at least in the ballpark. I mean, the 2020 draft was extremely close for where the Mocs thought that the quarterbacks were going. So do we think that this year the Mocs are close or far away when it comes to these quarterbacks? I'm inclined to think that it's close.

But at the same time, it does do the worst job with quarterbacks. And what I mean is, and I don't necessarily study the mocks as much as I study the markets, but I think that they eventually are correlated. Quarterbacks are always overvalued, right? Last year, we saw Pickett go 20. We saw Willis fall off the table. We saw Desmond Ritter. At this time, like April 19th of 2022,

Matt Corral was a favorite to go in the first round. It goes, you know, so this is, you know, we always talk ourselves into it. And this is pertinent to the Vikings with Endon Hooker, right? We always talk ourselves into it. 2021, Justin Fields goes 11. Mack Jones goes 15 after being favored to be the third pick for a great deal of that time.

2020, Jordan Love was kind of a pick in the teens maybe, maybe late teens, goes 26 to the Packers via a trade-up. That doesn't happen as much anymore where teams trade back in or trade up in the back half of the first round because the hit rate is terrible 2000 and and and you know uh 20 um 2019 i'm sorry you had duane haskins go 15th right a top 10 pick before the draft then you had drew lock who was you know a favorite to go in the first round fall to 42 42 to Denver. 2018, you had the markets. I remember this because I bet it.

They had a market of five and a half quarterbacks. Now, under was a favorite, but not by that much. People were talking themselves into Mason Rudolph being a first-round pick that year. Lamar Jackson falls all the way to 32. Mason Rudolph goes to round three. So I think, and this is just sort of the thing where the quarterbacks that reach the threshold for teams, they get picked high. goes to round three so i think like and and this is just the sort of the thing where like the

quarterbacks that reach the the threshold for teams they get picked high the quarterbacks that don't fall because no one like you got to really love a quarterback to draft when it is what it appears to be because you don't have like you have the politics of it remember when jalen hurts got drafted by the eagles even in round two they were like oh how's this going to affect carson wentz like you got to be careful mason rudolph drafted by the steelers around three round two, they were like, oh, how's this going to affect Carson Wentz? Like, you got to be careful. Mason Rudolph drafted by the Steelers in round three, Ben Roethlisberger got in his feels. So whereas no other position would be threatening, when the Packers drafted Rashawn Gary, Preston Smith, Zedaria Smith, they weren't like, oh my God, what does this mean for me? Like, it's just, they all play. And then, you know, so I think

that that's really the tricky thing so to push it back here i think most times these these aggregate mocks are going to push the players a little bit further down because every time there's a mock that has levis at 19 or 15 or has stroud at 11 or something that's always going to push the average because you can't pick stroud at like negative four right so it's not normally distributed that way so i think that leads to some of the accuracy in these mock uh accumulations because those quarterbacks generally fall further than we think all right so then here's the question what does it all mean to the minnesota vikings because you mentioned hendon hooker and that's an interesting idea that I am not sold actually happens yet. Now,

maybe if they were to trade down in the second round, but then I'm skeptical about drafting quarterbacks in the second round, even though Jalen Hurts worked out great, there's not a tremendous history of that. Usually you want your team to just be going all in or don't really do it at all. But, you know, when you're trying to figure out and assess which quarterback could draft into an area where the Vikings could potentially trade next year's first to move up, I think that's a discussion to be had. Would it be crazy to trade everything you have in your entire, you know, box of draft picks for the next three years to try to get the number three pick from the arizona cardinals or should you just sit at 23 and if it happens it happens because i

remember with mac jones we talked about part of the value to that would have been not having to trade anything for for that you know player where you just get to use your own draft pick so if it goes kablooey then that's okay i mean it's just a bust first round draft pick which happens all the time as opposed to trading three first round draft picks like if this is something that they want put it that way how should they approach it if they want to draft a quarterback yeah i mean we saw it in 2021 right like you know we all think of kellen mond as a third round pick but that was the top of the third round like you're looking at a top 70 player in the draft and um and you know he couldn't play i mean like let's be honest he was terrible from the jump and so there is just a huge drop off and it's different now like you know back in the day when quarterbacks used to fall like

you could consider a third round pick an option to start for you so that doesn't mean that if you take a guy in the second or third round, he's automatically not the successor to Kirk Cousins, but it's a pretty big prior that he won't be right. So that doesn't mean you trade, you draft Hennon Hooker in round one. And that doesn't automatically make him that either. Right. He's got to be talented enough for the pick. And, and so from my perspective, I believe like Hennon Hooker was, like, what, number one in QBR last year.

He put up some pretty good numbers. But I do believe the ball guys, when they say, like, look, that's kind of a fake offense. You notice he doesn't move his feet in the pocket. Obviously the age, the injury, all that kind of stuff. Like, I don't believe Hennon Hooker's a first-round pick. You also have, like, the transfer into the Josh Heupel system. Like he has all the characteristics of like a fake statistical season for Tennessee. So I wouldn't take him. I also don't think the Vikings are good

enough to be trading a ton of draft picks to move up and they're good. Like in some ways they can, right. Because they have two good tackles they have a great wide receiver um they have a tight end that i think that they really like of course in hockinson uh running back they're fine with chandler nuongwu and and madison once they move on from cook like i think they're they can support a young quarterback without a ton and you know they they could do better at wide receiver They could do better interior offensive line, blah, blah, blah. So in one way, you trade up for the guy that you really like and nothing else matters because he's amazing. Like I can see that outcome for the Vikings.

My issue is I don't think any of these four quarterbacks other than Anthony Richardson is capable of the kind of elite level play that's going to be a trade your whole draft for. And Anthony Richardson has such a low floor that I just don't see it. of elite level play that's going to be a trade your whole draft for and anthony richardson has such a low floor that i just don't see it so for me if i'm minnesota i trade out of the first like and again they need a market for this but i trade out of the first round i try to get a pick in the second round i try to use that on trade lands and i try to and i try to move forward with that the marshall minnesota kids southwest minnesota state the home thereof. I, I would, that would be my approach.

Knowing again that that, you know, that's another one where at least Lance has the pedigree, you know, and that would be, to me, that's the most realistic way of moving on from Kirk cousins with a young quarterback. Yeah. I, I, I definitely get you on that. I mean, something that I've been thinking about is the family guy uh what's in the box could it be another box um thing so it's like well

you know you have behind door number one is maybe either you're giving up too much for a quarterback prospect that isn't the next andrew luck or you're drafting h Hendon Hooker that is a flawed prospect but behind door number two is a flawed Trey Lance who's barely played football or it's drafting 17th overall in 2024 and trying to trade up and give everything you have to get higher you know what I mean like it's kind of if you don't do it now you're probably going to face a lot of the same problems later. Now I think that that is a likely scenario because they don't have to do it now and they can run this thing all the way to the end and they can really see, let's say that our door is slightly transparent.

So they could see the outline of what's behind door number two, then where you can't see it now. It's assuming you're not getting the top two guys for next season, it's very unclear what's going to happen for next year or what veterans could be available or all those things. But it does make me chuckle a little bit just to think about all the problems that we present this year are the same problems next year. If you draft Spencer Rattler next year with the 17th overall pick, people are still going still going to say well he's not a perfect prospect he's got this that and whatever wrong with him he's no better prospect than Anthony Richardson or than Will Levis or whatever else so I guess there's a part of me

that says like just pick a guy but I also couldn't possibly tell them to just pick a guy exactly and that's and maybe that's the you roundabout way that's the reason you just pick a guy right like and and maybe and maybe it's not pick a guy at 23 but maybe it's pick a guy you know pick two two in the and pick one in day three and pick one in day four or sorry pick one in day two i'm sorry and pick one in day day three i think you know throw numbers at the position right you even think about it from the Packers' perspective. When they elevated Aaron Rodgers to starting quarterback, they took Brian Brom in round two from Louisville Legend.

Then they take Matt Flynn, you know, national championship Matt Flynn, seventh round. Matt Flynn's better than Brian Brom, ends up being the backup there for a long time. I think, look, like, we had this discussion a lot during covid too like there's not a solution that's good here like and this is the and this is the the the outcome of constantly kicking the can down the road and always assuming you can move off of cousins and you didn't right because in a weird way cousins has really played well the last couple years got them in a position

where they felt as though they needed a guy like Hawkins in the middle of the year. Doesn't work out as far as winning a Super Bowl or even winning playoff games. And now you lost your – and you also had the black lock trade and all that stuff. And now you're in a situation where behind door number one is kind of a crappy situation, behind door number two, and you're just picking amongst a lot of things that don't have great outcomes. And you're just trying to pick a solution amongst things that are going to not be great on average. So if I'm the Vikings again, I try my best.

And I think Kweisi, to his credit, Kweisi Doppelmann said to his credit, is willing to trade back and not necessarily get the best value. We saw that with Detroit. Even though he won that trade by a lot of the analytical metrics, he didn't win it by Jimmy Johnson. But that's okay, right? I don't think that the Vikings problem is they don't have numbers on their team. They don't have a lot of good players. They have some elite talent, but they don't have any depth. So trading the 23rd pick, getting two or three picks back, even if they're not premium, and then just using two or three of those picks on some of the quarterbacks, the Tanner McKees of the world, the Dorian Thompson Robinsons of the world,

a lot of people in the league I've talked to, really like Jaron Hall from BYU. Some of those, take two or three swings at those and see which one of those guys actually ends up emerging as a real player for this team. And give them a shot and be willing to move off of Cousins. I think the biggest thing, Cousins, the biggest problem with the Cousins contract is

he's played well enough to never let them explore any other options and yet not well enough to win anything meaningful. So be willing to explore that player playing this year, whichever one of those emerges. them explore any other options and and yet not well enough to win anything meaningful so uh you'll be willing to explore you know that player playing this year whichever one of those emerges yeah i don't think that you can do that with the roster that they have because they have so few picks like if you have 12 draft picks maybe you could spend two on quarterbacks and see what happens and hope that it's like getting two lottery picks you know lottery cards instead or what do they call them lottery tickets as opposed to one i still don't ever really like the mid-round quarterback because

kellen mond is just the the average and not the exception for someone who just barely goes anywhere the davis webs the kyle lalta's that's 99% of those players. But if you were taking that approach, you would also have to have a lot of draft capital to burn because you look around the roster and go, all right, I always think you draft for the following season, right? You don't draft for this year. You draft for the following year because most players need a year to adjust.

Let's take a look down the road. KJ Osborne's a free agent. Harrison Smith is on the older side and might retire. You're going to lose more of these players. And how are you replacing them? There's no clear-cut cornerback. Jordan Hicks is going to be gone after that. You need a linebacker. Ezra Cleveland could go. You could need a left guard. We don't know if the running back situation is going to work out. Like there are needs all over the place. So I think that the, there is a great argument for just this year, sort of punting that decision for another year and drafting twice in the second round. If you could drop back or something like that, if you could trade back or whatever, twice in the top hundred hundred as opposed to, you know what I mean?

Like as opposed to just 23 and 87, adding a couple draft picks by moving back. It does make sense, even though it doesn't solve the biggest problem that you have. But it does set you up a little bit better for the future if some of those draft picks ultimately end up working out. Yeah, for sure. And I think, you know, we, everybody sort of comments and says that we're the negative ones and stuff, but like that, you're, what you're saying is like, there isn't really a way to do this. That's, that's not going to require some luck. Right.

And, and some players hitting and, you know, I think one of the big developments in Minnesota last year was the fact that the coaching staff, I felt like did a pretty good job of building a culture, building, you know building a situation where some players, the K.J. Osborns of the world, I even think Brian Asamoah looked pretty good at the end of the year. Josh Metellus, guys who didn't really have great expectations going into the year, played okay. I think that's got to be the gamble too.

If you're Adolfo Menzies, you're the boss, and O'Connell's the head coach. And it's just like, look, what do you want? Do you want five players and you've got to sort of shoot the moon here and hit all five of them? Or do you want 10 and they're all going to be a little bit less in pedigree, but maybe you only have to go five out of 10? Can you go five out of ten with these kind of players like i think that that's a you know that's a real good question and it sets them up because as you said like you know is the darius smith's not going to be here i think next year danelle hunter that thing doesn't look particularly promising from a long-term standpoint obviously

jordan hicks is you know that there's people mocking the vikings a linebacker which i don't understand but i think it's partly because jordan Hicks is probably on his last way out. Harrison Smith can only be here for so much longer. Corner, you know, Byron Murphy's a good addition, but I don't think they're strong there. Like, they have so many needs, and they only have five draft picks. So, you know, it's going to be interesting to see what they do. Right.

I mean, I think that if you moved back and got an additional draft pick, that everybody would kind of go, oh, okay. But one of the things that's interesting to me is when you go through second rounds recently, you can find tons of really effective and sometimes really even excellent players. So, what stands out to me is A.J. Brown and Debo Samuel are two all pro level receivers these are not just like okay players who they got in the second round these are legitimate stars now you could say well what about this guy what about that guy that's true but I think that the second round is often kind of fruitful in the NFL so moving back into the second from 23 like I don't see we talk about this sometimes with offenses. If you're the

eighth best offense, you're much closer to the 17th than you are the first. And I feel the same way about this, where once you get past the top 15 prospects, 23 and 40 might not be that far away from each other in actual prospect. But what about the positional value discussion that we're just constantly having? Like, I think we all decided that there's a couple of positions that we have just said pound the table bang the gavel those are the important positions and of course the vikings for whatever reason have ignored them a lot with high draft picks under spielman and then even last year uh only taking a corner but also taking guard linebacker, not the premium positions. But let's say that they do that scenario. They drop back, they get an additional early third

or an additional second. So they're picking twice in the second, once in the third. They've got a couple of picks here in the top hundred. If they're not going quarterback and we're talking about fairly equal types of prospects what position should they target yeah i mean you brought up so many good points there the second round pick um when you look at like massey and thaler that's richard thaler the nobel prize winner dabbled in football for a while um you know when you look at surplus value it's it's the value that the on-field value minus the cost and because first round picks cost a little bit more the the surplus value is actually higher you know for some second round picks at times now with the new rookie wage scale it's actually flattened that a little

bit um but then first round picks became more expensive again and so like right in like that like pick 10 to 40 is a sweet spot. And then what's interesting is everybody says, and I don't necessarily always agree with it, but they say there's not 32 first-round picks in this draft, right? So if you're picking Minnesota, you're 23, there's probably not a ton of a gradient between where you're picking to your point and 40, and yet the cost curve is still sloping downward,

even if player 23 and player 40 are the same. So that's one consideration. And then to your point, like surplus value, you know, when you look at like the true premium positions, which is tackle, like think about this. Think about all the positions the Vikings have never been able to sign in free agency. Those are called, those are premium positions. So left tackle, like in Riley Reif was fine, but that's not a top-end player. Like, when's the top-end player?

When the Vikings traded for Jared Allen, a defensive end, that was a one and two threes and a huge contract. That's how you acquire a premium position player if you don't draft them yourselves. Wide receiver. The best wide receivers the Vikings have ever acquired were all in the top end of the draft, right? Percy Harvin, and Diggs actually was later on,

but then Jefferson, Moss, all that. And then, so wide receiver, corner's another one. And the Vikings, to their credit, have taken a lot of swings at corner high. They just have missed there. Defensive end's the one where I think that Mike Zimmer whiffed here, right? Because he got one with a non-premium pick and he thought he could always do that they have not used a first second or third round pick on an edge player since Daniil Hunter and so that that's another place but you know the the kind of opposite are premium position the lack the non-premium positions are

positions that are available in free agency um and the top of the market so Miles Sanders was available widely available there wasn't a Miles Sanders of left tackles available in free agency and the top of the market. So Miles Sanders was widely available. There wasn't a Miles Sanders of left tackles available in this free agency crop or wide receivers or corners. Linebacker, Tremaine Edmonds got a top-end market deal. There isn't a Tremaine Edmonds of centers, guards, all those positions, safeties, those positions that can be readily available, those are non-premium positions.

And that, to me, when you think about the last draft that Adolfo Menta had that to me is the one place where you can really ding him which is you know you go safety in round one you go linebacker in round three you know running back a few times now fourth round and beyond it's it's okay I mean I guess um guard is another one and that was always the problem with the Cousins contract as well, because the whole point of like using draft capital to get premium position players is they're a huge surplus when they're on the rookie deal. And they're basically a zero surplus when you sign them to a multi-year deal yourself. If you do that, they give you that surplus so that you can sign a guard,

sign a center, sign a defensive tackle, sign a linebacker, sign a safety. And the Vikings have really never had the capital to be able to do that effectively because they didn't really – they spent draft capital on guys like Bradbury, guys like Irv Smith, Alexander Madison, all in the same draft really. And that has not necessarily given them what they what they've hoped yeah when you think about where they've even spent the free agent dollars now Zedaria Smith of course is a pass rusher Patrick Peterson last year but a lot of times it has been on the Jordan Hicks the Delvin Tomlinson the Harrison Phillips but also they haven't really been able to chase after anyone in free agency that is among the

first waves a lot of times the first wave is just meant sitting out which means that you've had to really just hope that you hit those premium positions but if you're not drafting edge rushers at the top you're probably not getting them right like i think that there are some positions this is this maybe just theory here from doing this year in and year out, but I think some positions you absolutely better take them high or don't even bother. And edge rusher is probably one of them. Maybe take it toward the way back and try to develop somebody. But if you can't draft them high, just go to free agency if you can. Corners, I kind of think that maybe that's not the case.

Like late first round, second round, into the mid-second, third, I see a lot of starting corners. And also I think corner and safety are such a product of system, who else is on the team, all those things, the pass rush that you have that it's really hard to discern. Did you hit on that guy or was it just circumstance? Because we see so many corners. How about like JC Jackson, where they look great in one place, they go to another place and they're terrible. Like what Tremaine Johnson, like what

happened there? That usually doesn't have happened with pass rushers. So there's a more predictable element to some of these. But the wide receiver position is what i want to talk about because this has emerged as a favorite in this draft for the vikings and i think trading back and taking a receiver is one of the best plays that you can have because i understand that there's always the guy you sort of fall in love with and oh well we have to take him he's there at 23 but the distribution of first round second round corners it's almost equal at least from just my perception of it your chances of taking in the first round of success or in the second round in recent years now maybe if you're taking the top five you're getting a julio jones jaylen wattle

uh kelvin johnson that's different that's usually an all-time great prospect everybody else though i think that it's hard to figure out whether a receiver is going to be good if you take them at 12 or if you take them at 43. Much, much different from like a pass rusher that in the top 15, like what they do in college is what they do in the NFL. But receivers are a lot different, how they fit, certain skill sets that they have, intelligence,

how they remember it and process information like all those things and i feel like if you do one thing super well and you're a second round pick that you can be good as a wide receiver do you agree with that theory that trading back to take a receiver would be a smart play absolutely so like there's your point about the market is absolutely uh you know spot on like i did this i looked at this actually you look at a tweet i had like you know i looked at pro football references approximate value for the team that drafts him and um the first round has more variance than the second round which is interesting and just you know five more approximate value points

which isn't that much per per per rookie contract um the the first round wide receivers likelihood of being a starter in the nfl is about 56 percent since the new uh cba second round just 43 that's not that big of a drop off um the likelihood that the player is a stud which is like basically um 40 approximate value points is about 16 if you're a first round it's 10 if you're a second round it's 13 if you're a third round um and so you know it's not a steep curve and i think that what you just brought up is is the main reason which is you know when you we grew up watching vikings football like chris carter and Carter and Jake Reed did everything right. They were on the field every single down and they bring Cadre a smell off the bench on third down. And that was the offense. You know,

then it was Moss and Jake Reed came off the bench and then it was, you know, Burleson and Moss and Robinson, like, but now like wide receivers, they play like all kind of play 70% of the snaps and they all kind of do it. And I, and I, and you know there's an article on sumersports.com um by the way we published one today about draft proverbs which i think is really cool about kind of you know what what's a smart way to draft you know in summary but we wrote one on weak link systems a few weeks ago where you think about it like you know the the likelihood that a system doesn't screw up is the product of each individual not screwing up.

And that's maximized when each individual has the same likelihood of not screwing up. So I think a lot of teams intuitively know this. And they say, look, the wide receivers we have are fixed. For Kansas City, it was Juju, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, McColl Hardman. And, okay, those receivers are ours. They're fixed. We're nothing we can do about it. Now let's engineer roles where everybody's equally good at their own role.

And that will make the system as resilient as possible. And as such, you don't get guys that are playing every snap anymore. You don't get guys that are trying, they have to do everything. And hence, guys, when they come out of the guys when they come out of the when they come out of the you know this is like andrew barry calls it like horses and geese like you get a lot more like players that can do one or two things really well and maybe they're useful in the nfl for a long time yeah and i wrote about this today with wide receivers and the whole discussion about undersized wide receivers. And what really came away was if you can find what the guy does well, you can work around it when you already have Justin Jefferson. That's a huge part of it, right? Because if you need someone to do everything to be your digs, your Devante Adams, your Justin Jefferson, well, good luck finding that. I mean, you just have to luck into that. It worked out.

It didn't work out for Jalen Rager, draft luck for the Vikings, whatever, so forth. But if you're talking about finding people that can fill in around him, it's sort of like being the number two corner if Darrell Rivas is the number one corner, where you always know you're going to have a safety over the top because Darrell Rivas is taking away one side of the field. Same deal with Justin Jefferson. He's taking away multiple defenders on every play, two to three defenders on every play, which means you are one on one. And if you can find, does the guy run good quick slants?

Is he good at double moves? Is he good at whatever? Even if he isn't the right size, even if he isn't the perfect speed or whatever, if he does one of those things, well, you could probably make that work. And that's why I like sort of picking a guy that has a skill set that you think you can work with, with their strength and then rolling with it and putting them next to Justin Jefferson, where if you're Chris Carter, for example, and I'm not, uh, you know, discounting that Chris Carter was fast, but he's not Randy Moss fast, but he certainly is wide open all the time. If you put him on one-on-one coverage that he's not Randy Moss fast, but he certainly is wide open all the time. If you put him on one-on-one coverage that he's going to be able to do

anything he wants. And Chris Carter was a hall of famer before Randy Moss. So make that clear. But when you put them together, that's greatest offensive all time type of stuff, because you're working with both players, skill sets perfectly. And that's what everyone is kind of always chasing for those wide receivers. So I wanted to ask you just some favorites. Give me some favorites. perfectly and that's what everyone is kind of always chasing for those wide receivers so i wanted to ask you just some favorites give me some favorites like you know hayley english our intern we do hayley's heroes uh i don't you know and and we did matt's monsters so if you have alliteration

with your name um go ahead and use it but give me give me some of the guys as you've prepared and you've talked with thomas Dimitrov on a regular basis where you've said, you know what? And it doesn't have to be a Vikings target, but just a couple guys where you're like, I'm intrigued. The numbers are popping for me for this guy. This is who I'm looking at. So wide receivers are just the whole draft?

Just the whole draft. Oh, okay. Yeah, I mean, I'm really a big fan of devon witherspoon of illinois uh i know it's a little bit on the older side a little bit on the smaller side but uh you know just got his hands on the ball a ton when he was at illinois that's like one of my favorite players in the draft i do and i know people are gonna call me like i'm a home simp or whatever but i i like it i. I like the idea of Anthony Richardson. I think if Anthony Richardson were to go in that 5, 6, or 7 range,

Seattle, Detroit, I'm calling them Oakland until they win the FC West, Oakland, in 5, 6, or 7, and they sit behind the veteran there, I think that there's going to be a lot of positivity there. I like Dalton Kincaid of Utah. That's one of my tight end that I think I can very much be a ball player here. It's hard not to like Kalijah Cansey, the defensive tackle from Pittsburgh, who is Aaron Donald size and Aaron Donald speed. That's one that I really enjoy as well. And I'll go a little deeper in the draft. I like Zach Charbonnet the running back from UCLA I think he's a terrific runner I think I don't think he has like quite the burst that B. John Robinson has but I think he kind of reminds me of like a rich man's Alfred

Morris who was a very effective running back in the NFL uh for a number of years for the Washington Commanders Eric's Emeralds the that's what that eric's you know i do think the the thing about bijan robinson and if we start talking about this you know where it's going to go into this like huge rant about drafting running backs but uh one of the things that is a key for me like a foundational point about not drafting them high is how many are good in the middle rounds i just because i think it's relevant i've been looking up you know kind of doing a little research on the running back class for day two possibly early day three and there's like seven guys i think oh wow okay this guy's got

a pretty good resume oh look he is good at the combine oh he averaged seven yards carry keaton mitchell and uh how about eric gray from oklah Oklahoma like there's a bunch of twos the other guy at Texas I forget his name is a really good running back prospect like one school has two great running back prospects that could be taken I mean this is it just sort of tells you they're everywhere and then we talk about the circumstantial stuff the situational stuff so there's a lot of running backs that I like uh your Your emeralds are good. Tight end is another position that's always weird for me, though, because we always fall in love with a guy.

And the Viking, this is irrelevant for the Vikings, but even Irv Smith was like this. Oh, wow, this guy was amazing and everything else in college. Oh, you can line him up over here. You can line him up over there. And there's just all these different things that we talk ourselves into. and then it's kind of the same story almost all the time imagine having to learn two positions in the nfl like right you have to learn essentially learn learn how to play tackle or fullback or wide and wide receiver like it's just a hard position to learn from

and if you take one high as the vikings like i'm gonna tell you this right now here's a prediction Irv Smith is going to ball this year and just the same way that like Greg Olson balled in Carolina that Vashante Shanko balled in Minnesota that you know Delaney Walker balled in Tennessee all these athletic tight ends do really well after they get a bit of seasoning and it's the catch-22 because all these guys are drafted high so the NFL always had a high opinion of them so they're going to stay in the league for a fair amount of time and when you draft them high you're just drafting somebody else's tight end it's what you're doing and irv smith has the goods it's just they drafted him to be great and granted they had kyle there but like they the 19 vikings needed immediate impact players. And Irv Smith was never going to be that because of the position he played.

And that's always like, when I think Dalton Kincaid, he's going to get overdrafted. And we're going to be talking about Dalton Kincaid five years from now being like, oh, he's finally emerged to be great, a la maybe TJ Hawkinson, another example of a guy who's better for his second team than he was his first team. And it's just, it's a tough position. I will fade any sort of, even Kyle Pitts, who's the best prospect. his second team than he was his first team and and it's just it's a tough position like I I I will fade any sort of even Kyle Pitts who's the best prospect and and you know I was involved when I when I was in PFF and helping the Falcons you know sort of do their due diligence on him um he had no flaws as a prospect other than he was a tight end and they they overlooked that

and you know I would imagine they're disappointed now the vikings giveth and taketh away with this right i mean certainly uh with the irv smith the didn't work out and then they get tj hockinson for kind of the same reason and he fits in flawlessly right away uh so yeah it was just kind of an interesting aside because we haven't talked about tight ends really on the show at all before we wrap up eric one last And you know, because you are one of us, a native Minnesotan, you have to answer this question. I want to know when you were growing up as a Vikings follower, who was the draft pick that you got insanely excited about?

And it doesn't matter if they worked out or not. Like we can talk about that, but who was the one? Because I know I didn't grow up in Minnesota, but I remember listening to the NFL draft in 1998 on the radio because my parents did not have cable. I don't know why we, we got them cable like 10 years ago and they were like, wow, this is great. There's like everything here. Like, yeah, folks uh so i used to have to listen to um things on the radio and i remember the analysts on the radio trashing randy moss oh how could he show up with a pant leg pulled up to the draft and he had sunglasses on it is at the heisman thing

and he's a bad guy and i remember thinking thinking, I want this guy to work out so bad to shove it down their throat. Like that's kind of like one of my earliest sort of draft memories before it became what it is today where we study as much as we do. So what about you for a, like a Vikings early youth watching football draft memory? Yeah, so like I really,

like I've gone back and watched a lot of games prior, but like my, and drafts, the first draft ever watches 1995 when the Vikings passed up on the opportunity to pair John Randall with Warren Sapp and got Derek Alexander instead. I remember when they also backed up the truck to sign the wide receiver, Derek Alexander,

that was fun as well. I really, I really wanted them to draft Eddie George because I didn't think Robert Smith could stay healthy and then he went to pick early so they got something called Dwayne Clemens um uh you know Dwayne the Moss pick I do remember being pretty excited in time at the time uh I was always a big Jake Reed fan but I always thought like wow three wide receivers this would be amazing um so that was that was the one that I was you know interestingly the Dante Culpepper pick people forget that you know Randall Cunningham was coming off such a great year they traded

Brad Johnson for that 11th pick and took Dante but but Cunningham was on a five-year deal at the time so like we kind of not I don't think anybody got excited about Dante really he was very raw he was terrible in the preseason his rookie year um moss so moss is a very exciting one um let's think about like a low round pick though that we were all excited about and this was 2008 the aforementioned where you know you go 0607 best run defense in nfl history tomlin frazier can't stop the pass. You know, 31st against the pass, I think, in 06, like one of the bottoms in the league.

So you need a pass rush. Kenechi Udezi wasn't going to do it. Then, unfortunately, he got leukemia as well. You know, Darian Scott couldn't rush the pass. Erasmus James was terrible. So then they trade. I remember I was tutoring at the time. One of my best friends, Trey, who's still a Vikings fan,

called me and said, we got Jared Allen. So I go, I'm really excited. They got Jared Allen. So now they're left with the second pick, second round pick. They get Tyrell Johnson, one of the stiffest safeties I've ever seen in my life. Fifth round pick. And I remember I'm in, I'm eating, I'm going out to dinner with my girlfriend and her family. And I look up and it says fifth round pick Vikings, John David Booty, quarterback USC uh usc i was like i actually know who this player is i'm excited this is pretty fun and you know the best part of the john david booty era was he was the back third stringer for two years or one year behind tararis and gus ferrata a friend of the show and the next year he was still wearing number four

and he was wearing number four the whole 2009 training camp. It's a charade, right? He's like, what's number four up to? So the real number four comes off of the private jet from Hattiesburg, walks in. John David Booty comes out of the locker room, tail between his legs, wearing number nine. I don't think he ever even signed with another team the rest of his career. The poor guy got usurped for Brett Favre. But at the time, I think a lot of people, you know, people were talking about audibles being called booty calls and that kind of

thing. Like people were excited about John David booty and that, so that's my later round one, you know, as growing up watching and rooting for the Vikings. So. Well, I think, yeah, I mean, anytime it's a quarterback for sure, you're, you know, getting excited. I think that I have probably mean, anytime it's a quarterback, for sure, you're getting excited. I think that I have probably talked people out of that over the last couple of years. And after the Kellen Mond thing, because I mean, the Kellen Mond thing is funny to look back on because Robert Griffin, the third was laughing at Kirk Cousins on TV. And Rick Spielman's talking about how Kellen Mond is just like Teddy Bridgewater and just immediately was over.

It was over an OTA. I mean that, that we watched the first practice and trust me, the reporters, we have seen hundreds of practices. I've never seen a guy at quarterback just look so, so lost, but also throw the ball so poorly. I mean, that was what amazed me. And that's why college is so crazy compared to the NFL, because when you actually watched him throwing the ball, he was taking snaps under center and did not know how to drop back and throw a football. It was wild. Like, and there are other players who you see that immediately step in and you're amazed other players take a while, but that was the one where it was like, Oh, I think they messed up that draft pick. The late round one, since I've covered the team, that is the funniest to look back on is Jalen Twyman because he was picked in the sixth or seventh

and people kind of lost their minds. This guy was supposed to be a first round prospect and look at his sack numbers, Aaron Donald, everything else. And then he, unfortunately, and not funny at all, but like he got shot and then he never played i mean he's fine so it's okay but like he that then came back to practice last year there was absolutely nothing there he was way too small to be in the nfl i mean way way way too small to be and ran like a five three3 or something. I mean, there was just no chance this was going to work out.

But people lost their minds. The other one, though, for me, the wrongest I've been is Wyatt Davis. I thought, what a great pick. Ohio State guard, like this should solve all their problems and never play. Never made it even through his second year. So that's why the draft is fun, always to look back on, and we will have a great time going through it. And if you have time, folks, Sumer sports show,

if you want to hear the perspective of an a foremost analytics expert in the NFL and Thomas Dimitrov, former NFL GM, two-time GM of the year. It is a great show. I listen to it all the time. I just got new noise canceling headphones, like ones that actually do it, not the ones that you kind of bought off the rack that say noise canceling headphones like ones that actually do it not the ones that you kind of bought off the rack that say noise canceling and huge difference maker on a plane was able to actually hear your guys podcasts and the tremendous intro music of course as well so uh thanks so much

for for the show it's great people should go check it out and i appreciate all the time you've given us in the run up to the draft. It's it's such it's honestly the best NFL event of the year, isn't it? Like the Super Bowl only involves two teams. The draft involves all 32 and except for the Rams. And and so it's really is a fun time. And I it's obviously a pleasure just to get to talk about it with you. And hopefully the Vikings do some things that make us compelled on Thursday. Thanks again, Eric. And of course, thanks everybody for listening. We'll catch you next time.