Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Eric Eager thinks the Vikings went for the right positional value in the draft

Episode Date: May 3, 2023

Eric Eager of SumerSports Show talks about the analytics of the Vikings' draft, from what surplus value actually means to why positional value is talked about so often on draft night. Did Kwesi Adofo-Mensah do well with his group of pick? Should they have taken Will Levis? What's next for the organization? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here, and look who's back. It's Eric Eager of the Sumer Sports Show. Sumer Sports, the podcast with Thomas Dimitrov. Tremendous, tremendous insight leading into the draft and analyzing the draft. So because we have some analytical issues to dive into here, you are back. And also Kevin Cole's going to join the show later in the week we're going to make sure we get to the bottom of every analytical angle of the minnesota vikings draft and others so uh eric how are you how was your draft it went well uh thomas and i did the first round on our on our draft show and it uh it went without a hitch um so that was good um obviously some teams

did better than others uh some people did better than others uh will levis of course fell out of round one i told everybody on this freaking show that hennon hooker wouldn't go in round one and not only did that not happen will levis didn't go in round one um you know the the the lions took a running back and linebacker in what could only be seen as a continuation of the luck the Vikings enjoyed last year in the NFC North. Bears are fine. The Packers took another edge-type player, a player who didn't play a ton in college. So it'll be interesting to see how he does. And the Vikings took a player that made a lot of sense for them and Jordan Addison

as well as some you know other players or premium positions they they had the highest percentage of the pick go at premium spots so that was after last year where they took guys that you know running back linebacker you know safety and stuff a fun you know revival I guess for Kweisi Adafamensa and we have huge shocking news that the Vikings picked up the fifth-year option on Justin Jefferson. You know, lots of debate on first take and Shannon Sharp and Skip Bayless were yelling at each other. No, that didn't happen. But I do think that you can learn something from the fifth-year options being picked up. And I'm not really sure exactly what to

make of what the Packers did with Jordan Love other than they gave him cash, but made it so they can get rid of him if they don't like him. Maybe that's the bottom line there. But what can we learn from fifth year options and whether they're picked up? And just if people don't know, when you are a first round draft pick, it's a thing where a team can pick up to guarantee a fifth year that you're on the roster. If you are a second or beyond pick, that does not exist. So it's just particularly for first round picks. So that means that one way you could grade whether first round picks are a success is if the team decides to pay you. So Makai Becton, for example, the Jets tackle that pick. He looks like a great player or a great talent, but that pick's not a hit. It didn't

work out for them to take him. They're not picking up the fifth year option. Even with Garrett Bradbury, they re-signed him, but you wouldn't call the pick a success because they decided not to pick the fifth year option up. So you can still bring back the player after, as the Vikings did with Bradbury, but it's kind of a way to grade a team's draft a couple years later by looking what ultimately happened in the decision that the team made about that player. Interestingly, the Vikings actually had two options to decide to pick up, not only Justin Jefferson's, but Jalen Rager, the gentleman picked right before him that they traded for

from the Philadelphia Eagles. It looks like they have declined that one. Surprise, surprise, as he is now a punt returner in the NFL. It's interesting, right? So you have, you know, when they enacted the 2011 CBA, the fifth year option for the first 10 picks was the transition tag number. And then after the 10 picks, it was the average of the third to the 25th salary

at the position. And it wasn't guaranteed except for injury. So you had like this kink in the data, right? For top 10 picks and then 11 through 32, that commensurate with the fact that teams would be an uptick in taking the option for the 11th pick over the 10th pick just because it was cheaper. And then in the 2020 season, they decided to kind of tier it a little bit. If you don't hit these playtime thresholds, so they're something like 50% of the snaps over three years each year or 75% every year or 75% average over three years or more than 75% in two of the three years. Then if you don't hit those, it's the bottom still. It's the average of the three of the 25 which for funny this actually makes top 10 picks more likely to be hit because there are going to be top 10 picks who don't necessarily hit that threshold sometimes but

are worthy of picking up the option say like a situational pass rusher or somebody who was injured for a few years or somebody who didn't play the rookie year or something like that that player may or may not actually hit that um you know option price and you look uh for example cj henderson was one that wouldn't have now he didn't actually um you know get price and you look for example CJ Henderson was one that wouldn't have now he didn't actually you know get his option picked up but there there would be an option there for a player who made one Pro Bowl exactly which was Chase Young actually they they get the transition tag number and for a player made two or more Pro Bowls it actually is the franchise tag number so it made it a lot more expensive and it's across the entire, it has no bearing on where you're picked. So it's all the way from one to 32.

And so that has caused a lot of players not to get their options picked up in the back half of the draft because a lot of players do hit that playtime level, in which case they end up making that money. So what you're saying is that it's not as simple as saying a guy got his option or didn't picked up as hit or miss. It's sort of a basic way to look at it though. I mean, if like, for example, Caleb on chase on, I remember there was a lot of debate over him just to pick kind of somebody out of that. And if you don't pick up his fifth year option, it means it wasn't a home run. I guess I would say it didn't end up being something that was really a success. And he's actually a guy that I've looked at as an example for why picking a pass rusher

at that point in the draft is usually a little dicey. And we see a lot of those guys not work out. But I wonder what you took away from kind of some of the data, because I saw you tweeting about this. And I think that it's totally fair if everyone is tired of hearing about premium positions. I'm tired of saying it. I mean, in fact, this was my biggest praise for Kweisi Adafo-Mentz's second draft. And my biggest criticism of his first draft is not picking the right positions. But the data that you were tweeting about of guys

getting their fifth year options picked up, I think it couldn't demonstrate it any better that if you're picking those positions, you're taking a big risk. Not only that, but if you hit on those guys, how much impact do they truly even have? So I think with the Vikings going wide receiver in the first round and getting someone who is at that a premium position that would cost 20 million dollars on the free agent market if he becomes a solid number two and if they had gone maybe corner I think I would have had similar praise for it as a position that usually gets paid big time but when you go outside of that and that was the criticism for last year two out of the first what three picks being a safety and a guard, that's where I feel

like it's much more risky that you almost have to get a megastar at those points in order for that to be a success. Well, even if you get a megastar at those positions, it doesn't necessarily make a ton of sense. Like if you look, okay, so let's look at the top 10 players at safety. So, you know, in terms of average per year and let's and this is very much a market-driven approach i do know some teams have you know mathematical models to tell them guards are more valuable than we think or safeties are more valuable that was always a thing at pff that i believed um but you you look at let's let's look at the top 10 players the top maybe 11 you have jesse bates as a top four player at the safety position.

He was accessible via free agency by the Atlanta Falcons. You look at Marcus Williams, another one. He was accessible through free agency by the Baltimore Ravens. That's another one. Justin Reed is in the top 15 players at the position in terms of pay. He was accessible via free agency by the Kansas city chiefs, Micah Hyde. Similarly,

like those players, you know, let's, let's take a look at another position. Let's look at tight end. For example, we look at players, you know,

top end players in that position. You know, David and joke, who was at one time, you know, a free agent, Hunter Henry was at one time, a free agent.

Evan Ingram was at one time, a free agent. Taysom one time a free agent. Evan Ingram was at one time a free agent. Taysom Hill is a quarterback. So those positions, you can access them through free agency if you have a hole there. Furthermore, just take tight end, for example. The highest paid player right now is Darren Waller at $17 million per year. If you take a player like that in the top five, he's going to be making $8 million a year. So that provides, If you take a player like that in a top five, he's going to be making 8 million a year. So that provides, if you have a player that plays up to Darren Waller or Travis Kelsey making 14 million, presumably they're not worth more than them on the field. So 14 million minus eight is 6 million of surplus value. That's not a ton. If you take a wide receiver and the

top end wide receivers making 25 to 30, that's a surplus value of 17 to $22 million. That's a lot more. And so it's just really about the structure of the league in some ways. A, can you access those players through free agency in the case of tight ends, guards, centers, running backs, linebackers, safeties, those positions? The answer is yeah, you can. Can you access them through trades only or through the draft? The answer for quarterbacks, unless you're going to sign Kirk Cousins, quarterbacks, wide receivers, left tackles, in most cases, right tackles, edge players, defensive interior players, corners,

like those positions are only accessible at the very high end through the draft or through trades. And that's why, you know, you need to access them in that part of the, you know, the NFL cycle, because otherwise you're going to be overpaying through a trade or you're going to be like kind of, you know, drafting them later in the draft where, you know, the pickings are slim okay so we kind of like push the gas pedal down here uh and i we let's just back up a second and just say like did you like it i mean when so they pick a wide receiver i thought that it was one of the smartest decisions the vikings have made in the draft in a while to go in i mean christian derisal was a great pick and they passed up on Mac Jones. There's that element, but trading down to still get a tackle who was considered to be one of the elite tackles in that draft. So, you know, of course that's a really good decision as well, but I thought that they got exactly what they wanted. And there are some things that I think teams do in front of the

cameras, uh, cause they know that everything's being filmed. And there are also things that I think sounded pretty earnest. And it seemed like Kevin O'Connell really wanted Jordan Addison. So it kind of checks off all the boxes for me to stay at 23 and get Jordan Addison, a receiver who can be hugely valuable for you, massive surplus value, which is like you said, what you would pay in free agency. And then that's another good point because when we talk about rebuilding this team, there were some people that asked like, wait, why didn't they take defense? Well, one of the reasons is because, like think about the Eagles.

They just got two really good corners last year in what? I think both of them were trades, like Gardner Johnson and Bradbury. There are corners who become free agents or who are available via trade every year. Who was the best available wide receiver? What like Odell Beckham?

Okay. I guess aside from that, maybe once a year, there's a Tyree killer, Stefan digs, who gets really angry at their team and then needs to be traded or AJ Brown, but that doesn't happen all the time. And it doesn't guarantee you're the team.

It costs more than just the team. It costs more than just the signing. It costs draft capital too. It's double whammy to access those players when they're veterans. Yeah, I mean, look, DJ Chark was one year $5 million. Last year was Juju at one year $3 million with

incentives up to $10. It's not when Christian Kirk got fetched $20 million in free agency, it pushed up the value of all the great wide receivers, you know, like it's, it's pretty clear how these things work. Right. So, but from that perspective, there were other options. One of those options was drafting Will Levis. And this is one where I I'm going to, I'm going to stand on this very complicated ground with Will Levis that I got one eye on it, like watching what happens with his career, because it will be interesting. I think personally that he's Christian Hackenberg and that it's not going to

work. That's my assessment from just watching him, how I feel about it. That's clearly how the Vikings felt about it. But there's this other part that I cannot ignore of that. Like I'm really going to be interested to see because they decided not to take a swing. I am not criticizing them for that. I would not want to say to Kevin O'Connell, Hey, I don't care if you like him or not. He's your guy. Go take him. That is a recipe for disaster. You know, we kind of just saw that. Hey, Kirk Cousins is your guy. Mike Zimmer deal with it. How did that work out? Right.

Because you're just ultimately, if it doesn't work out with wins, you get finger pointing and everything else. But there is like the, should you just take swings because it is a quarterback? And what if the guy is great? Like all these things are sort of competing thoughts, but I refuse to like stand on a ground where I'm going to say, how dare you not pick him. But also it's not like he was taken in the fourth round.

He was taking only, only a handful of picks later. Yeah. It's a good question because Malik Willis was provided last year with much more of a, of a, an oomph to the predictive power of Kweisi Doppelmense having passed on him twice. Actually, more than twice, but twice in the first round. I think that this one's a little bit trickier because he was considered a top five pick by many.

There are some things that people have said that would make me pause a little bit. But it also comes down to the fact that we don't know quarterbacks that well, right? And so I probably would have taken him, gun to my head. But they probably have talked to him before. They probably have decided whether or not they think he has a growth mindset or whatever. They probably talked to the Wilfs and said, hey, we only have five draft picks. Can we burn one of them on a quarterback that's not going to play this year? And they've probably gotten some sort of answer that made them lean ass.

And to me, when you saw that they weren't going to trade up for him once he got into like 16, 17, 18, it was pretty clear that they weren't going to take him at 23. And they probably, they tried to use, I think, the whole 10 minutes to trade back and ultimately went with Addison, which I think was a good alternative. It's interesting to wonder if, you know, some of the players, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston, Jackson Smith, the jig with uh were not taken before them would they had gone a different direction at wide receiver it was Addison just the best the best

one left yeah I mean I can't know that for sure just by the video they released it seemed like Kevin O'Connell was getting pretty nervous that Kweisi was gonna trade down um when they were getting phone calls toward the end of that 10 minutes. But he said something like we stuck to the plan and I'm assuming that plan means to draft Jordan Addison. The thing about Levis is we always talk about this when you take mid-round quarterbacks, how unlikely it is that someone actually becomes the next Brock Purdy. And it was very funny because I tweeted during the fourth round or fifth round, I tweeted something like every single one of these guys is getting compared to Brock Purdy. And the next tweet in my feed was someone comparing Jake Hayner to Brock Purdy.

And you guys have an article comparing Clayton Toon to Brock Purdy. If you like, if you were selected then, but we know that that's not likely anyone actually fits like that. I think it's the same for Will Levis types in the second round. I mean, I was scrolling through historically trying to say like, who had a similar profile, not a Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts was a prolific runner in college. That is not what Will Levis is.

So I came up with like Drew Locke, a little bit of Jordan Love. I mean, Jimmy Clawson, like the big arm guy. Christian Hackenberg was another one that came to mind. Like, I don't think that this player has worked out all that often. Derek Carr was much, much more accurate. Kind of a, you know, Mike Glennon was talked about this way. I know he dropped, I think, to the third round. But there doesn't seem to be a history.yan mallett falls into this combination of skill sets and like big arm

and little concerns about this or that and so i feel like not every second round quarterback is a second round quarterback colin kaepernick prolific runner um andy dalton like really really accurate and that's not what Will Levis has talked about. Big arm, inaccurate, and nobody buys it. Seems to be a pretty losing combination. Yeah, I think of like Connor Cook. I think of guys like that where you're just like, it's not going to work.

And, you know, there is some signal. My former colleague, Timo Riske at PFF, he pinned down the fact that when a guy falls, it's more indicative of the truth than what a guy is reached for. And so when you look at 22 teams and eventually was – or 22 selections, fewer than that many teams, and then eventually 33 selections, almost all the teams, when they all say he's not worthy of a first round pick then there there is some signal i think there and so look like they have to figure out the cousins thing cousins you know just because this draft came and went without kirk cousin you know without a quarterback being taken in a in a threat threatening place for cousins doesn't make him any younger doesn't make his arm any better doesn't make his decision making on fourth and eight the playoffs any better like the the problems still exist here

uh but Cousins may or may not be more likely to be retained now past 2023 okay don't go too far in the conversation because I have more things to talk about with the draft picks and we will get to Kweisi Adafomense's comments about the potential of extending Kirk Cousins. But we need to talk about, and I was just scrolling back even farther, there's so many of these guys that are like big, strong arm, talked about this way, like Drew Stanton, Brady Quinn. There's lots of them, and I just haven't seen a lot of success,

which doesn't mean that he won't uh your Kyle Bowlers you know that type it's just that I think we've seen this Patrick Ramsey this type of player many times by the way Patrick yeah yeah yeah um so I wanted to ask though about consensus boards because I saw Mitchell Schwartz tweeting about it, our friend Arif Hassan, the, I guess, founder of consensus boards and things like that. And in my opinion on this, just using experience, is if you reach in the first round to get Cleland Farrell or whatever his name was, that's bad. That's bad. If everyone thinks that the guy is the 30th best player in the draft and you take him fourth, you are really putting your life in your hands. But with Makai Blackman, the Vikings late third round pick,

in fact, I think the last pick in the third round, the consensus boards had him much later. But when you look at his skillset to maybe transfer into a nickel position, what he matches up with, he's good at tracking receivers. He's a good tackler and things like that. I think that I'm willing to say on a late third round pick that I don't care about what the consensus was. And part of the reason is that the scouts for the Minnesota Vikings would spend every day analyzing third round and fourth round picks. They would have data. They would have multiple people looking at these guys. They even, and Scott Studwell personally explained this to me one time,

they go in and they sit with the college coaches and watch film and they go to their practices. And these are things that Joe draft analyst is not doing. It's just not possible. So the data points that an actual team has on third, fourth round, fifth round guys versus what the outside world has is so much smaller than say, trying to analyze a first round quarterback of which everyone has kind of seen what an Anthony Richardson looks like. It's Cam Newton, right? So I'm much more willing to acquiesce to the team here. And you know, I'm a questioner of authority oftentimes on the show, but in this case, I'm much more willing to acquiesce to the team here. And you know, I'm a questioner of authority oftentimes on the show. But in this case, I'm willing to say, like, I believe them.

I don't know if that means he works out or not, but I believe them when it comes to a fourth round pick or third round pick. Yeah. And usually these fourth round picks, like when you look at the team board, they have so many players thrown out. They have so many players ignored because of scheme and stuff. Like whenever it's the 100 pick in the draft, that player is like 50th on the team's board. That player is 60th on the team's board just because of fit and all that kind of stuff and how they value players and so on.

So whenever a team tells you that they like a guy more than where he's picked, that's where it's coming from. And, yeah, you know and i think ben robinson does this with grinding the mox i think grief does this as well when they look at kind of grading the drafts they do like dissipate the the error when like let's say you take the 500 player at pick 250 it's going to be different than than than earlier in the draft just because we know more information and things stacks out well. So that being said, I still am a big fan of the wisdom of the crowds. I think the best part of the wisdom of the crowds, if you go read that book by James Swarwicki, is basically the individual components can all be stupid, but the crowd ends up being

pretty good. The one place where there's bias, I think it's almost always in the negative direction. I was talking to Thomas Dimitrov about this on our podcast yesterday. It's like medicals can really only hurt a player. Information about their mental makeup can really only hurt a player. We're ascribing so many great things to these players, and we don't realize why did Devontae Parker not work out well?

Because he eats Cheerios every single morning, like type of thing. Like that's literally something I've heard about that exact player. And so when you think about it, like we're always over overestimating players, which means that players we really like are going to always kind of fall later because of that information. And then players like Jimmy or Gibbs, players like Jack Campbell, we're going to view them as reaches in large part because all the good stuff about them is known and all the negative stuff about them is greater than or equal to what we know. And so with the players that end up being selected later than we think they are, the negative stuff about them is just greater than you know strictly greater than what we know yeah so i mean i i just where i tend to buy it

with the teams is and i was listening to your show and uh thomas dimitrov mentioned something and this is a two-time gm of the year so he's been through many drafts and he was a scout coming up and all that stuff so there's few people more experienced on earth than doing this. He talked about watching the NFL combine film and how certain dudes move their legs and stuff to try to figure out, you know, certain flexibility and mobility and stuff like that, that if you don't have, and some of this sounds like it's way over the top. And I would agree when people were saying, and I'm glad I stuck with this when people were saying like, well, I don't know, Will Anderson didn't run a hot enough 40. It was like, get out of here. That dude's a monster, please. But I do think if you're talking about a late third round pick, how someone moves specifically to try to fit and Kweisi Adaflomensa

talked about projecting these things based on sometimes it could be a few snaps or something at the combine or pro day. And I'll also mention that, you know, Rick Spielman watched the pro day for Will Levis. And I know make your Christian Ponder jokes, but the guy was a scout for a long time. And he was on this, like sort of sending the signal. Like this guy is not someone that the league thinks because the, some of the pro day stuff was really concerning about how he threw the football. And I think that there are details that people outside of this profession would not understand. So if you think about it, like I know a lot about music, right?

And so like if you and I listen to a song, you know nothing about music. And I know a lot about music. Now, you can certainly tell me if it's a good song and you might be right, but I can tell you about the chord progressions, the scales that are used, the lyrical content. You know what I mean? Like there's so many things that I think that teams can see that we can't, that I don't want to say they're right because sometimes they're hilariously wrong with these draft picks. The Vikings have been hilariously drunk many times, but when you're trying to tell me that I should like hate a draft pick by the Vikings because of the wisdom of the crowds that maybe don't have a lot of wisdom at that point, I'm just

going to kind of pass on that. I think that there are some things when it comes to analytics where we have to say, look, I don't think that that really tells us as much truth as you think it does. Yeah, I think you really have to ask about the process of the player right so when quasey says look we wanted to trade back but we got we ultimately got a good player to premium position i like that answer that that's an answer i can go with when a team goes we really like jimmy or gibbs at six we would have taken that six we got a trade and wow this is a great value at 12.

It's like, that's nonsense, right? That player's a running back in the top 12 when he was mocked in like the late 20s and so on and so forth. When a team says, I don't view this tight end as a tight end, I view him as a weapon. Well, okay, but the league prices him as a tight end, so you're overpaying for that.

I agree with you in the sense of if the team has good process and just says, look, we had a really good eval on this player. He's at a premium position, so we took him at a premium spot. Fine, I can go with that. But a lot of the – I mean, when Michael Lombardi comes out and stands for the Houston Texans and says, look, that second trade up was actually for Stroud. It's like, no, it wasn't. It was for Will Anderson. And well, they would have taken Will Anderson second if they weren't allowed to

trade up. It's like, well, that means that they shouldn't have traded that much for Stroud if they liked that position player better than him. You know, it's all those things where the just picking the players to me is a trivial part of the draft. It sounds weird, but picking the players is a trivial part of the draft. It's mostly your eval. It's mostly the consensus eval. And then whether or not you can execute trades and whether or not you can pick players at premium positions and give yourself the best bet. Everything else to me is weirdly, you know, kind of solved at this point to the extent that they want to. Now, they can use analytics and player evaluation better for sure. And that's, you know, that's

another thing that we'll get to. But for right now, given the current state of player evaluation in the NFL, picking the players in the draft is not the hard part. The hard part is picking the dollar bills that the other teams leave you off the ground. Yeah, and I want to say I'm talking very specifically about the criticism for this Vikings pick when I'm saying this, not as a broader thing about everyone's draft, because I think that what the Atlanta Falcons did, and you can already see everyone talking themselves into it. And I don't doubt that Bijan Robinson's a great prospect. But when I hear, similarly to what you mentioned as a tight end, oh, this guy's different.

He actually plays wide receiver too. You're like, okay, well, show me in the last 30 years how many running backs actually played wide receiver. My personal friend, Thurman Thomas, Eric Metcalf, Marshall Falk, Christian McCaffrey, that's the list. Maybe you could take Keith Byers from the fullback position and put him at tight end. But how many of these guys actually do this? So am I really to believe that you guys are going to be putting B. John Robinson as a slot receiver and he's going to run downfield routes like Marshall Falk and average 12 yards to catch. I just cannot see it. And the same thing goes with Gibbs. It's like, okay, if that happens,

then I'm wrong, but I don't think it's going to happen. I think that realistically, these guys will be more traditional running backs who catch screens. And then you tell me because they caught screens that they're a receiver, but that's not really what it is because everybody catches screens and from year to year those hit or don't as we've seen with delvin cook so yeah i mean i'm not saying you can't criticize a team's draft based on the the analytics and the positional value and everything else it's more to me that i would lean toward since they drafted a premium position in Makai Blackman, who they felt like he really was a good fit. That's totally fine with me in the third or fourth round. Had they picked Makai Blackman at 23, I would have lost my mind. I would have said like, what are you

thinking? But from the draft in general, you kind of touched on some of the NFC North teams. I mean, the line, what are we, what are we supposed to make of what the lions did? I mean, it's you draft a running back, you draft a line backer. And kind of what I said on draft night was like, these are not good value picks at all. These players also will play and they might be good. Um, so that's not like great for the Vikings, I guess, uh, that they have all these draft picks and then they go with Hendon Hooker which is also a weird pick for them considering that they've sort of been locked into Jared Goff so like what are you trying to accomplish I guess with a second round

quarterback they're focusing specifically on them since you have been Mr. Restore the Roar explain this whole thing to me like how am i supposed to feel about the lions thing i i don't feel great long term about them i think you know the we've seen this in minnesota right you you you look up one day and you're like why does this team not have any talent on defense why does this team struggle why does this team not have a second wide receiver that's what that's ready to to emerge past adam thielen why does this team not have a quarterback you know to move on from cousins with and the the answer is in the 2019 draft after a season where they much like the lions were one game above 500 they decided to go center, tight end, running back with their first three picks. Three non-premium positions, three positions that if you had the capital,

you could have accessed those positions in pre-agency, and instead they went for them in the draft. I look at Detroit and I think, wow, this probably makes Detroit not more likely, but no less likely to win the division at plus 130 favorites on FanDuel than they were going in. In fact, you can make a case that makes them better. But if they have a hole next offseason, let's say, and I always talk about this with the Chiefs, right? The Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Alaire at pick 32 in 2020. They said, well, we have such a great roster.

This is an embarrassment of riches right and they and they and then you know mitchell schwartz and and and uh eric fisher get injured uh mitchell schwartz's career is over after it eric fisher's career wasn't but it was with the chiefs they had to cut him so instead of just going into free agency and getting a tackle which they couldn't do like they almost they $25 million for Trent Williams. They had to pay a first-round pick in a trade for Orlando Brown and then kind of pitter-patter with Orlando Brown for two years money-wise. If Detroit's not going to have a hole at running back or linebacker moving forward,

but if they did, they could get one of those players in free agency. If a hole pops up at a premium position, they're going to wish they had spent this draft capital on that. I think that's a great way to put it, is trying to look into the future of saying what in a year. And this is, again, another reason to really like what the Vikings did with Jordan Edison. Because in a year, K.JJ Osborne may leave in free agency,

knowing how much wide receiver twos and wide receiver threes get looking at what Adam Thielen got. I mean, if he, if, if he catches 60 passes this year, the guy's worth like $18 million. That's nuts. Would any of you pay $18 million today for KJ Osborne with all respect and everyone knows how much I respect KJ Osborne with all respect and everyone knows how much I respect KJ Osborne no it's not it's not going to be worth it and so if you lose him like then you're looking to replace a wide receiver so it's either overpay him eventually to be your wide receiver two where he's maybe not quite as good in that position as wide receiver three or draft

one now and if it hits you're in good shape way easier to replace a wide receiver three or draft one now. And if it hits, you're in good shape, way easier to replace a wide receiver three through development of Jalen Naylor or whoever the hell else, than it is to replace a wide receiver two who gets open and makes plays and everything else. And just look what Adam Thielen got. So I think that ties back in and there's kind of a lot of different ways to say the same thing, but I think that's a good one that they think their roster is set so why not just get another running back and playmaker but what about in a year somebody gets hurt somebody doesn't resign that you think is going to resign and these needs open up and you can't replace them so i i don't think it was good for them i do think in the very very short term and i mean very very like, it does help them. Like Gibbs,

Gibbs could be probably very good. And honestly, Campbell with his skillset could step in right away, but also linebackers. I mean, you pointed this out, I've been kind of a disaster in the draft, but let's get to the, the elephant in the room here though, of, you know, Kweisi Daffel went through the whole draft and I think everybody, or at least reasonable folk, should be like, okay, good. All right. That works. You know, okay. You didn't have 10 picks. You didn't have a top five pick. What were you supposed to do? But this works. This is to me, thematic of an analytic GM. He got some draft capital for next year with his trade backs. He picked big positions. He's throwing numbers at the cornerback position.

All of this to me makes sense. The running back in the seventh round is a great pick, not a good pick. So like, well done, well done. And then with five minutes left on the clock, he comes in with an answer to a question about Kirk Cousins leaving the door open for an extension. And it was like, wow, because he could have just said i don't really want to talk about that right now next question we're talking about the draft and yet he said we're solutions oriented and it's sort of goodbye for now with our negotiations but we could always go back to the table and it was just sort of like wait everybody kind of moved on to all the other potential answers and now you pop

the door back open for an extension for cousins now i don't know whether that's being minnesota nice and he's been here for long enough to be minnesota nice and say sure maybe i'll come over for thanksgiving when like you're not coming over for thanksgiving i think that's more likely but popping the door open is just very interesting after we had all closed it and started to talk about all the other options yeah i good on quacey by the way for you know when he did the the restructure which included void years um which you know which was the player had to agree to because ultimately they put on years on his contract,

which made his contract, I believe, a five-year $200 million deal in all told. The same way in which Jalen Hurts' deal is like a billion-dollar deal, where the void years have paragraph five and that's not actually going to be exercised. Because what we do know about a Cousins extension is if it were to happen in a year, it would be for less than $40 million because there's NFL rules about that,

$40 million per year. So that at least caps it. But, yeah, I mean, it's an option for them. That's for sure. I think a lot of Vikings fans would rather them move on. But so far, because they've been good and they haven't been willing to bottom out, there really hasn't been an option for them. That's for sure. I think a lot of Vikings fans would rather them move on. But so far, because they've been good and they haven't been willing to bottom out, there really hasn't been an option for them outside of, you know, I can't remember where they picked. It was like 14 in 2021.

Well, when they traded back with the Jets, that's about as close as they've gotten to really being able to pick from a set of quarterbacks that could be franchise guys. So what should they do? Should they wait until just to see how the draft class plays out for next year? Should they make phone calls about Trey Lance? Now that we know that the Levis and Hooker ideas are off the board, because next year, just seeing a little bit our friend

nate tice was tweeting about drake may uh that gentleman is probably going in the top three not nothing guaranteed but also caleb williams is going in the top three i just project that's going to be hard for the vikings to get up to but there's also another four or five guys who could emerge as first round draft picks for next year. I wouldn't count out Spencer Rattler. People have talked about Penix from Washington is having potential there. I mean, I don't know, but there's other dudes. And it feels like that is the most likely scenario still that Cousins plays out this

year, goes to free agency, finds a new home, and the Vikings draft somebody in next year's draft, maybe even potentially trading up into the top. Is that the best approach for them considering where they are as an organization? Yeah, I think they should consider Trey Lance for a second round pick. I think that would make a lot of sense if the Niners are willing to move off of him for that price, because ultimately a second round pick now is probably worth a third round pick.

A second round pick later is probably worth a third round pick now. So that one would be one that I'd think about. You have a year to decide on his third year, on his option. So that one could be an option for them anything beyond that i think you just play cousins out and for the second straight year unfortunately you're hoping you know that you're secretly hoping that he doesn't do that well uh he he did not fall off

last year the way that maybe they anticipated so they're with him another year i think that short of a trey lance trade and and sit for a while, it's going to be Cousins and then it's going to be maybe accumulating picks. The best thing probably for them if they want a new quarterback is to play poorly next year. That probably isn't going to happen. The next best thing is for them to play kind of like Detroit last year and play just good enough football to trade off some assets so that you can move up in next year's draft. The worst thing probably that can happen to them is play like they did last year and, you know, not really be a contender because Cousins is your quarterback, but have too good of a record to actually replace him. Yeah, it might be actually

if they became the Vegas Raiders and all the one-score games went completely against them this year, and they have a decent team, but then you open it up at quarterback, and I think that if Anthony Richardson had dropped to them, they would have taken him. But this year, it just so happened that there was three and then a huge gap between the other quarterbacks. It's hard to know how it's going to play out for next year. So let me ask you this question. Then we've got a couple of small other fun things to get to. Are they closer today to a Super Bowl than when they lost to the Giants? The minute that they walked off the field, and I don't mean the Super Bowl this year. I mean

foreseeable future. Are they closer today than they were when they walked off the field against the Giants? Yes, but that's because they did better in the draft than they thought they would. But it's not by much i the the way i think they're so far from a super bowl that anything that the only thing that can appreciably increase their odds is to is to change quarterbacks and i think maintaining cousins as the quarterback keeps their options about the same maybe a little lower than it was last year, for sure, especially coming off of the field. If you would have said before the game, they're appreciably lower because they had a chip chair and a chance at the time. But coming off the field, Cousins a year older, the roster's not quite as good, but we knew that that was all

going to happen. The draft is better than I expected. So I think it's going to be a little higher, but not appreciably so. Yeah, I guess what I'm saying is from the start of the offseason, the minute they walk off to right now. From week one last year to week one this year, they're lower, for sure. Yeah, I mean, for winning it next year, it is lower because I think the team isn't as good, and it's hard to count on rookies. It's funny, I said in 2020, it's hard to count on rookies. You know, it's funny.

I said in 2020, it's hard to count on rookies. So you can't assume Jefferson and Gladney will both be great right away. And one went one way and the other went another way. And it was like, well, that's rookies for you. Both drafted around the same spot. One's an all timer and one did not work out. So it's a really interesting question i think the only reason i would say yes is because at the most important positions getting jordan addison if he works out they are really stacked and they are closer to having a new quarterback

today than they were to start the offseason because of what they did with cousins contract and not extending him but they aren't really that much better as a total roster than they were. In fact, they're definitely not better because of the way Patrick Peterson played. It's not going to be easy to replace Kendrick. So all of those things. So two quick things to get to here to end the show. Number one is an announcement about intern Haley. So unfortunately, intern Haley was, okay.

So unfortunately she won't be able to do anything longer with Purple Insider. Very fortunately, that's because she has landed a position with the Detroit Lions in their analytics department, which should come as no surprise if you listen to Haley. She is incredibly smart, too smart for this show. And she did a tremendous job jumping on here with a fan base she didn't know, a team she didn't know. She had followed the Jets for the most part as her sort of hometown team and just caught on super quick. And by the way, is a outline for any person. If you want to know how to succeed, do everything she did. She was on time every single show.

She met every single deadline with every article. She did everything she was asked to do with a great enthusiasm and was really willing to hear feedback. And we had a lot of back and forth about her articles and things like that. And she just did a phenomenal, phenomenal job. And so I cannot say enough how much I am happy for Haley. And you are too, because she started off interning at PFF, which is where you met her. And that's how she ended up interning for me.

So you suggested to me a tremendous, tremendous intern in Haley. And somebody did a great job, offered great contributions through the offseason and the draft. So you suggested to me a tremendous, tremendous intern in Haley, and somebody did a great job, offered great contributions through the offseason and the draft, and now she's staying in the division to help restore the roar in their analytics department. But how awesome is that? Yeah, for sure. My third intern to make an NFL team behind Zach Drapkin,

who almost won a Super Bowl last year with the Eagles, and Mehmet Sem Erdin, who is working now for the Denver Broncos. So I'm really enthused. Haley did great work for me last summer. And when PFF started, it's declined a little bit. She needed a place to go, and you were so gracious to pick her up. And I think that the listeners to Purple Insider, the followers of this great platform here, certainly got a great addition. And hopefully she kills it with the Jets. I think, interestingly, or not the Jets, the Lions, I spoke a little bit. Yeah, there was another one of my students who's also, you know, who is, I think, either interviewing for the Jets or or something beyond that.

But it'll be it'll be really fun to see how she does. I think that she has a career in media if she wants one. But also, obviously, on the team side, that's a feather in her cap that I think she's really deserved. Yeah, and it was very cool to see her get more confident and start to rant on the show and things like that. You saw the growth similar to with Paul Hodowanek, who's now working for PGATour.com. So it's awesome to see the intern succeed. And Haley, because she can't come on the show anymore,

as soon as she signed the agreement with the Lions to join their analytics department, she can't go do public content. Plus she would have had to deal with the fact that they drafted a running back and, uh, she might've got fired right away. But, um, here, here is her goodbye letter. And I think this is so perfect because one of her nicknames was hate Lee, because when she would rant, she would really hammer people. And so this is perfect. I'm going to read her goodbye to Purple Insider here that she emailed to me. This is from Haley. It was an awesome three months working for Purple Insider.

I had an awesome time talking about how Justin Jefferson is as valuable as a quarterback, ranting about questionable free agency moves and breaking down potential draft picks for the Vikings, all well coming from a different fan base. She means the Jets. In case you're wondering, the Vikings drafted one of Haley's heroes, which was Jordan Addison, picked up two of them as undrafted free agents, Andre Carter and Ivan Pace. And yep, Haley was all over those guys. So I'm going to take credit for those, she wrote. Oh, and I always knew Will Levis was never going to be a first rounder. And Aaron Rodgers is finally and very happily on the Jets.

So we can put that question to bed. I'm really excited to start with the Lions, but I'll never forget the awesome time I had at Purple Insider. So she is talking trash in her goodbye. I mean, Paul wanted to hug the Purple purple insider fan base. He wanted to say, thank you so much. And, and Haley's just like, I was right, yo. Yeah, that's amazing. And obviously it's cool that she was, cause at PFF, like, you know, what I try to do with my interns was you give them a platform, let them write about a really

cool topic. And, you know, actually we have three interns now at Sumer, which I'm really excited about as well. And I give them an opportunity to communicate. And then of course that turbo drive when it came with you and I'm, I'm so happy she gained the confidence to, uh, to, to pen that. And, uh, like I said, I think, um, the, the lions, you know, a lot of questionable decisions, but, uh, hiring Haley was not one of them. Yeah, no, that's true. Best decision of the draft weekend was to bring on Haley English. So we congratulate her. And the other thing is, you know, we speak of PFF, but the book is out. My book,

Football is a Numbers Game, on the history of PFF, where it fits into the analytics revolution. And, you know, I don't want to give away too much because your life story is in there and how much you have personally, and people do not know this, personally impacted and influenced what goes on in NFL front offices, which I outline in the book. But I am curious just, you know, if you want to throw something out there of your feeling about from the time you first joined PFF after being a professor to now, one of the reasons I wanted to write the book was the incredible growth within NFL front offices. And here we're talking about, there's a tie-in of Haley joining the front office in analytics in Detroit, because I just think that PFF was at the center of this explosion of the NFL buying into the analytics revolution, maybe 20 years behind where they

should have been with baseball doing it with money ball. But you are playing a huge role in that, by the way, and doing the amount of studies and things like that and projects for teams that you have done through the years. But I'd love your perspective on that as, by the way, pre-order is out. Amazon football is a numbers game. Go there. I'm going to have Jonathan on the YouTube, put the little banner across and everything. So we are self-promoting like crazy, but I'd love to hear you talk about that because that was really the main subject of my book. Yeah. To me, and you talk a lot in the book about Neil Hornsby, the founder of PFF, who I think deserves a lot of credit. I mean, it's so funny because he gave opportunities to people like me. I was a math professor who was, you know, kind of bored with

my job and like gave me an option to like, you know, chart the game and like learn how to kind of, I never did any grading, but I kind of learned how all the data was collected and kind of was able to write about football in a way that got me kind of skewered at times, got me learning about things and, you know, about, so I was like halfway through my professorship. And then I did two years of just kind of writing and data collection. Finally, like Neil, Neil is like normal, like Cumbrian charm, like wanted to hire me full time. But, you know, went into this diatribe about how there wasn't enough money and all this stuff. And eventually we were able to because Chris Collinsworth, you know, was so generous.

He was able to hire me eventually full-time and really cultivated a great amount of interest and at times resources for myself and George to build up our analytics team. And I think about all the great things that people do now, coverage versus pass rush, perfectly blocked plays, looking at stable versus unstable stats, you know, the mock draft simulator was a something that our research group built in two and a half weeks during the pandemic, when we didn't think that we're gonna

use sports, you know, just like all of these things, a lot of them built out of necessity, a lot of them built out of out of really, you know, ingenuity. And, you know, you think about how ingrained they are. I mean, it's funny because I was at the combine and now I don't work with them anymore, but I certainly hope they do well. And it was like a few people are like, well, we can't give up PFF because it's how all of our systems run

and all of the data and all that kind of stuff. Now, do they like all the grades? No, but do they? It's funny, like all these college teams use PFF wins above replacement for college players and that's on the backbone of the grades. So it's really been a fun ride. I wish, you know, at times, you know, I wish things would have turned out a little bit different between us, but I also think about how many great things happened there and how many great people,

Austin Gale, Mike Renner got their start there. Trevor Sycamore is still there. He's a fantastic host. Obviously, George is still there. I think about just the way in which we've changed the conversation. And I only think we're like 5% to 10% of the way there. So I'm really enthused about where Football Analytics is going. And I think PFF had such a huge impact on that. And that is the subject of the book of which I spent probably 500 days of my life chronicling. And all of you were incredible in your generosity. And not only that, but I had a chance to interview

one of the greatest offensive line coaches of all time about how he uses the PFF grades. And just like as a small tease, when you hear people say they don't look at the grades, that's probably a lie. So but anyway, you know, Zach Robinson, who's a quarterback coach for the Los Angeles Rams, he worked for PFF. The current offensive coordinator of the Texans, Bobby Slowik, worked for PFF. And so there's all these stories that are kind of connected in there. And I'm still, I'm working with the publisher's PR team to figure out how much I'm supposed to say and not when teasing this book, but football is a numbers game. It's just out on pre-order. It's going to come out at

the start of the season next year. And you gave so much time to that book and it was an honor telling your story and many others so people can look forward to that so thanks for your time as always on the show and uh it's almost link season man so it's going to be time to get together for some links ball i can't wait i i'm so uh i'm so happy that the links are playing and uh and you know the the whole wNBA, frankly. It'll be a real pleasure. All right. Thanks again, Eric.

And thanks, everybody, for listening. We'll catch you next time.