Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Eric Eager wants the Vikings to trade down and take a quarterback

Episode Date: January 16, 2024

SumerSports's Eric Eager joins Matthew Coller to talk about how the Minnesota Vikings have to deal with the NFC North's rise, including a plan to move back in the draft and select Bo Nix in the drat. ...Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 🎵 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me from Sumer Sports is Eric Eager returning to the show. And we had to do it one day after the Detroit Lions win a playoff game and Jordan Love emerges. And I guess we could start this way, Eric. Last night after the games ended, I came on YouTube and talked live for about 70 minutes about how the Vikings, thank you, thank you, about how the Vikings should have been watching that day and saying, we can't just do the same thing if we're going to compete with these teams and i uh sometimes feel when i'm done talking like that that i may have gone a little bit
Starting point is 00:01:13 over the top i may have been a tad too aggressive for the midwest with the discussion so tell me tell me how you feel am i going too far to say that those two playoff games should be the straw that breaks the camel's back for the Vikings decision-making this offseason? No. And as somebody who is Midwest, grew up in Maplewood, you know, why you're the best at what you do here, that's why. One of the reasons why is sometimes we need somebody to be forceful. We're too passive-aggressive here.
Starting point is 00:01:48 And that's why I appreciated, I think it was, what, after the Green Bay loss when you and Dane, they just stopped and said, look, these six years have not been successful. Like, let's not, six years, right, you've been under 500, three of them. You've made the playoffs twice you've won one playoff game this is not successful like we gotta we gotta stop you know pussy putting around this stuff right and and and i think also now it's important to not mince words about what they're up against now right like Jordan Love might be the best Packers quarterback of the three like you watch he's like even keeled he gets along with his coach he's not a conspiracy theorist he's not stealing from kids in Mississippi you know he doesn't have
Starting point is 00:02:38 a drinking problem he doesn't have an Oxycontin problem right like he might be the best right think about this when barb took over he had sterling sharp who would have been a hall of famer if not for an excellent neck injury he had jackie harris he had uh keith jackson he had mark tamura he had a great offensive line he had a reggie white the minister of defense who the heck is on the packers they And granted, they've all become good. They're good because of Jordan Love. Right? And so that team might be good for another 15 years. And then you look at Detroit, and I was at
Starting point is 00:03:13 that game, and obviously, everybody knows I called this. I called Detroit being good last year, and now they're a 13-win team, and they might host a divisional round game, and they might host a conference championship game if the Packers upset the 49ers. And, you know, that team's not perfect. They're not great defensively.
Starting point is 00:03:32 You know, Jared Goff has warts as a quarterback. And they're going to lose Ben Johnson. I think he's going to go be the commander's coach. That's not a very well-kept secret. But they're a good team team they're going to be around for a while and the chicago parents are going to draft caleb williams or drake may both of whom are elite prospects and so you're sitting here as the minister of vikings and granted like and i'm not laying any of this at quasey's feet like he has he's made some decisions but a lot of this is
Starting point is 00:04:05 initial conditions on his part but you do have some good players at key positions right you have Derrissaw you have Jefferson um you know you you have uh you know Bynum you have Pace you have some good players but you're a ways away now and you have the decision to make a quarterback upon which and I know Kirk has had some good years and I know he's played well at times but there isn't a good choice you let Kirk go you're paying 28 million in dead cap and then you got to find a quarterback which I think Vikings fans probably have found out this year is actually not that hard right like you know you can find the guy to throw for 300 yards and lose a one score game right um or you got to go back into the draft and draft
Starting point is 00:04:51 the guy or you got to sign kirk and that's going to cost 40 million plus now because of you know his leverage that he has over you even even through injury and all of this is because of the copium that the this fan base slash you know maybe this ownership has fed the vikings faithful and the people of minnesota for the last six years, which is, oh, the NFC isn't that hard. The, oh, Kirk's good enough. Oh, we play meaningful games in December and January. Oh, and it's like, and I wanted this anecdote for you because I, and obviously we'll talk about something else, but I, you know, I do a lot of traveling around the league.
Starting point is 00:05:42 I do a lot of consulting. And last season I went to a game in the AFC South. And I remember talking to one of the team, I was talking to a staffer. He's no longer with that team. So I think this is appropriate. And I go, how are you looking this year? He goes, I like our division, right?
Starting point is 00:06:00 Now look at the AFC South. Stroud, Lawrence, right? And so that stuff changes. Your team-building strategy cannot be everybody else sucks because everything changes. And the Vikings team-building strategy has been everybody sucks, all we have to be is average, and we'll be good enough. And now it's kind of in your face.
Starting point is 00:06:23 And so now they have to have a real actual adult approach to what is going to win football and what is going to win the championship in this city and and and and that's you know and that's going to come with with that's going to be a real I think maybe painful couple years for this team few things first of all i asked you if i came in too hot last night and you said the packers will be good for the next 15 years and jordan love is going to be better than farver rogers can anyone tell that he grew up in minnesota uh but with rod or with jordan love i think he's the answer to the question what if matthew stafford had gone to a stable organization when he was drafted because there's so many similarities with those guys it's a little I think he's the answer to the question, what if Matthew Stafford had gone to a stable organization
Starting point is 00:07:05 when he was drafted? Because there's so many similarities with those guys. It's a little wild sometimes, but the high-end performance, the ability to run the offense, and the calm nature of this guy. He goes into Cowboy Stadium. Jerry Jones is there. All the Dallas Cowboys. The biggest stage. the biggest broadcast,
Starting point is 00:07:26 it's their game. And he just comes out, executes the opening plan, goes down, scores a touchdown. Like it's nothing that is a big problem for the Minnesota Vikings that they're going to have to deal with in the future. And I think of the defensive side for this, because you have the offensive setup. It's weird how their offensive draft picks have been pretty darn good. And their defensive draft picks have been a disaster over recent years. You pick a couple of all pro caliber players, and then Jordan Addison is added to the mix. You spend another draft pick on TJ Hawkinson. But I was thinking about the defense and how when Mike Zimmer was hired, the reason they wanted Mike Zimmer was because they looked at the division and they said, you know what?
Starting point is 00:08:09 Rogers and Stafford are going nowhere. And this Jay Cutler guy is not too bad either. We need a defense to be turned around. And so they spent all these draft picks to build up the defense. And let's just real quickly go through what they had when the last time they won a home playoff game, which was a long time ago, and our hairlines were a lot better then. So in 2017, they had Daniil Hunter and Everson Griffin as their defensive ends, two all-world players. The best nose tackle in the league at the time, Linval Joseph.
Starting point is 00:08:40 Two good rotational defensive tackles. A really good rotational third down rusher in Brian Robison, two Pro Bowl caliber linebackers, the best shutdown corner one-on-one in the league, the last guy to truly do Island stuff over a full season. And the guy who ranked third in the defensive MVP that year, Harrison Smith. I mean,
Starting point is 00:09:01 and an investment at, I mean, one of Zimmerimmer's first so the other part was initially like sharif boy was the first round pick that didn't work captain munderland was one of zimmer's first uh investments that was that was their nickel corner mckenzie alexander like even the guys that didn't work demonstrated like the investment that they made and trying to stop people in that division you're absolutely right about that right and i forgot terence newman who was a consistent excellent player in the nfl for a very long time trey waynes was a first round pick
Starting point is 00:09:34 trey waynes was a successful first round pick and doesn't even get mentioned in this discussion about how good they were as a complete team and as a defense. And so now let's compare and contrast. Is there a single player, if Harrison Smith retires and Daniil Hunter doesn't stay, is there a single player on the defense that you could compare to any of those guys? I mean, maybe Ivan Pace, but I don't think he's of the caliber of what Eric Hendricks was all pro. And Anthony Barr got criticized for his contract, but he's not on the level of an impact player of Anthony Barr with the physical ability. There's no shutdown corner. There's no difference making safety because Lewis scene has not worked out. There's no pass rush. And I just saw one of those great Seth
Starting point is 00:10:19 Walder charts where he shows pass rush win rate and poor Harrison Phillips was at the very bottom because he was asked to play nose tackle when he's a run stuffing three tech. I mean, there's nothing the, the, the cupboard is completely bare, which I think all circles back to the quarterback decision because they've proven that they cannot reach a top elite, truly the offense offense the way that Detroit can with Jared Goff so even if you have a bleeding defense if they get one guy Aiden Hutchinson to make one or two plays in a game in big situations their offense can make up the difference and win a playoff game the Vikings have not shown that capability and that's even not a great strategy that I don't think will get
Starting point is 00:11:02 Detroit to the Super Bowl anyway well and that and that's I mean you got there right like you got to the whole thing which is to say we're not we're not bagging on Kwesi here right the quarterback decision is a long-standing organizational decision that has been made by made across regimes uh by ownership of this team and you know he's had to deal with this and the Detroit gets to pick a premium position player at a young, at a position of strength young in Aiden Hutchinson, while. I know it wasn't fun. We didn't get any phone numbers. We didn't hook up with any girls. But the party was over. It's time to pick up the cups, right? And they got Stafford out of there, and they got picks, and they brought back off, and they nurtured that roster back up. And guess what? They got a premium position player at an important position in Aiden Hutchinson. And look, to your point, that defense is not that great.
Starting point is 00:12:08 Player for player, that defense does not have premium players except for the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, right? And that player is going to be there for a while. He's not going to make all that much money. Daniil Hunter is on a pretty cheap deal for the Vikings, and Aiden Hutchinson makes about half of what Danell Hunter makes. And so they can go over and turbocharge that offense because Goff's deal is pretty smoothed out,
Starting point is 00:12:33 and they have all the picks so they can get Panay Sule at right tackle, they can get Amon Ross, St. Brown later on. They can even, in my opinion, make mistakes on guys like Jameer Gibbs and Jack Campbell, and they can draft a guy like Sam Laporta and Brian Branch and all those things. And all of that was because they weren't afraid to go 3-13-1 one year. And they weren't afraid to just... Because look, and I was at that game last night. That team had not hosted a playoff game, Matthew, for 30 years.
Starting point is 00:13:07 They had not won one in 32 years. And that place was electric. I walked in. Haley, you know, she was my intern. Then she was your intern. Now she's intern for Lions. She texted me before I got in. She said, Eric, this place is full already.
Starting point is 00:13:20 It was three hours before the game. The fan base will still support the team even if they struggle right like as long as you're trying and as long as you explain to your fan base what you're doing right the people in this town pretend that if you have a couple years where you struggle like everybody's gonna bail on the team like it's gonna be the bud adams houston oilers no that was the most electric game and i I've been to a lot of Vikings games where it's been pretty cool, but that game was electric. And two years ago, they were 0-10-1 when they faced the Vikings or whatever the heck. And now they're a 13-win team. And it's just
Starting point is 00:13:56 because they built it up their way as opposed to what the Vikings kind of are, which is a little bit of Rick Spielman's way, a little bit of Rick Spielman's way, a little bit of Quasey's way, a little bit of Kirk Cousins' way, let's be honest, and a little bit of the Wilfs' way. And you watch that Dan Campbell video with Brad Holmes and Jericho, and you can see those two had a plan. And that team has a thematic consistency that permeates everything they're doing. And are they perfect? No, but they they're pushing towards something consistent.
Starting point is 00:14:31 And now I look at this team and they're not bad. Like, I don't think they're bad, but like. But they've been passed up and I think they've been passed up because there are there are issues with you know their inefficiencies that are born from the fact that i don't necessarily know if they had a tried and true plan of how to be competitive other than this conference is easy which is not going to be easy anymore folks lucy is upping the nicotine pouch game with breakers pouches packing a a little something extra inside. What are Lucy Breakers? If you know your pouches, then you know that the nicotine doesn't hit immediately, and neither does the flavor. But the geniuses at Lucy came up with a brilliant way to fix both of those problems. They put a mini liquid capsule inside each Breakers pouch. So here's what you
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Starting point is 00:16:29 excited when their team drafts jalen twyman so they're uh very easy to get excited about their team because there is a deep level of passion and care and so when i look at the way vikings fans have followed this along actually to the point where we're at, the fact that those people still fill the stadium and create the atmosphere like they did against the Packers for Jaron Hall starting on the night where most people would rather be somewhere else on New Year's Eve, I think tells you a lot about the passion of the fan base i mean they will be there no matter what you do thick and thin they were showing people in the stands last night that had been 50 year season ticket holders of the detroit lions this is not surface level fandom from these people and the thing is too and i really appreciate this about our listeners, the people that I follow on Twitter, that communicate with me through the newsletter, whatever is, I think that we've come a long way toward fans,
Starting point is 00:17:32 understanding timelines and understanding plans. And what we've seen is three teams in the division who laid out a plan. And if you were the Vikings, you were probably hoping two out of the three went wrong. Like maybe Jordan Love is bad. Maybe Jared Goff doesn't get them to the playoffs and they lion's their way out. Or Dan Campbell isn't a good coach.
Starting point is 00:17:55 Or maybe their tank blows up in their face and doesn't work out because their draft picks all go bust. Or maybe with Chicago, their tank doesn't work out. But all three plans have come together and chicago's not a guarantee yet the way the other two are already finished but getting caleb williams and a high draft pick or maybe a second rounder uh i've seen some kind of hyperbole around justin field's trade value but i'd guess it's a second rounder based on you know recent history i would say right so i mean you're talking about adding even more and
Starting point is 00:18:25 the thing is the lions have as much cap space as the vikings for next year and twice as many top 100 draft picks i it's just they even have more assets to work with than you so the way that i look at it though is eric i think that the the plus side of this is when the vikings new brass took over in 2022 i think they mostly understood this. They didn't know how bad it was going to be in the division or how difficult, but I think they mostly understood where they were coming into with the salary cap, with the quarterback situation and where they were going to have to go in the future. And that's why the word competitive rebuild got thrown around. And if the Vikings had won nine games instead of 13 games, which is what their point differential said they should have won in 2022, but they won every one score game. We'd be looking at this
Starting point is 00:19:17 like, oh, great. Now it's time. Now it's time to execute the full plan. They were competitive and then they had a drop back year and now you draft the quarterback and now you go forward. The only thing that has muddied this up is that Kirk Cousins played really well under Kevin O'Connell and he did a Netflix documentary and he took his shirt off and he did the skull chant. And look, he has ingratiated himself to the fan base in ways that I didn't think were possible, that maybe were held back some by himself, some by not winning, some by his head coach, all those things. But winning that 13 games really did bring the fan base closer to him. But I also think from his perspective, he should be looking at this and saying, the plan was always to get rid of me.
Starting point is 00:20:04 Why do you guys want me now? If they do, I mean, because the way that they acted when they came in, they signed him to the shortest possible extension and then didn't sign him to an extension because they wouldn't go to an extra year last year. I mean, it doesn't make sense in my mind for really either side. And if Kweisi Adafomenta is able to execute the plan that very well seemed to be laid out when he took over then i think that they have a chance to keep up in this race they're not going to be ahead they're going to be playing from behind the way that things have played out but you don't fall behind if you get the same advantages and then hit of course on the
Starting point is 00:20:41 quarterback that you draft 100 and i and i agree i think that that's and and frankly i think cousins and i've been a big cousins detractor not like i there's a couple things i obviously the contract i think the first two contracts were not great decisions i thought the quacey contract was fine i understood it but i also think in hindsight and you watch even like the whole dan campbell saying jared golf is good enough for detroit to his face and then you also watch the netflix documentary and how kevin o'connell treated kirk cousins it makes you look back at how mike zimmer treated kirk cousins and it makes you if you wanted the vikings to have success it makes you look back
Starting point is 00:21:20 of the the mike zimmer kirk cousins era with regret because if mike zimmer would have treated kirk in that way maybe they would have had success right because i think that that was a big part of it but you can't outdo that anymore right and so now that kirk's like kirk is like likable now like i i do think and and i think he's tough and like i think he's done a lot of great things and and i actually find myself rooting for him a little bit now and like all that stuff but the party's over like it's just it doesn't take away from the fact that it doesn't it's over now like it's just you're not going to go into it like if the cowboys can't beat the packers with dac prescott and micah parsons and cd lamb and and tyron smith and all the at home they can't stick within two scores you have have no shot with, with Kirk cousins against that team,
Starting point is 00:22:08 let alone Detroit and maybe Caleb Williams and Drake may in Chicago. So it's just not a, it's just not a thing there. I think that, I think that the question that, that maybe like people have to think about in Minnesota is okay. So assume that they they because Hawkinson Jefferson now is coming up for a deal you want obviously with with Derrisa you're not picking necessarily all like I went to that game in Atlanta because I live in Atlanta now
Starting point is 00:22:36 um you lose that game the Josh Dobbs game you're picking what six now maybe you're in range now like what does that rebuild look like what if you start now and you say okay we're going to resolve to rebuild what does that look like now because you don't really you don't have that many picks you don't and and you don't have a good enough roster to like shove it all in and go get up to three let's say and go and go Jaden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr. I mean, and the hit rate on pick 12 and beyond quarterback is just not that great. The hit rate on quarterbacks from there on out is the Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts thing, which is like you already have a quarterback, and this guy has no pressure on him. The other guys are like Jimmy Kloss and Derek Carr, like, okay, maybe.
Starting point is 00:23:33 But, like, it's tough now because the time to draft the guy to take over and be their young quarterback was last year or the year before. And so, again, I don't want to, like, look back and say, you know, they should have done this or they should have done that because I want to be prescriptive now. But they really are in a tough spot now because they did look at 2022 and see some of the signals of competitiveness and make moves that, you know, Hawkinson, that was a good move, right? But it's still, in some ways, gets them further away now, right?
Starting point is 00:24:00 Because now, you know, are they going to get, when is the first time they're going to are they going to get when is the when is the first time they're going to be in range to get an elite level quarterback prospect well i mean this is it i the way i look at it because if you look at this draft class there's never any guarantees for the next draft class it could always be the 2022 class where you're talking about sam howell being the best out of that entire group or Kenny Pickett, pick whichever. They're both going to be career backups. And the Vikings correctly identified that. But last year they decided to pass up on Will Levis. I would defend that in some ways. The way I looked at it was if you draft Will Levis, then you have a chance to also draft somebody else if it doesn't work out.
Starting point is 00:24:48 If you don't draft Will Levis, then you probably get one quarterback that you get to draft just based on how long GMs and coaches get to stay in the league doing these jobs, how quickly ownerships pull the trigger on firing people. If you had drafted Will Levis and it didn't work out, you'd probably get one more shot at it. But now, since they stuck with Kirk Cousins and did not decide to do that and develop him for a year and so forth, they would have an answer if they had done that. They also wouldn't have Jordan Addison. So I'm not saying that they should have done it.
Starting point is 00:25:20 It's just that was part of the formula when it was debated is, well, you take this guy, he can be just a swing for you and not the only all saving being that they're going to need the quarterback to be. But the question is, if you are drafting a quarterback this year, how far can you get with him? How quickly, how fast can you rebuild all this stuff around him and i guess i would say a lot faster than if it's with someone more expensive and if it hits it doesn't have to take forever and so that's when i get the question every single time i talk or get it open my email should we trade justin jefferson for three first round draft picks? And my answer is always unequivocally, absolutely hell no. Zero percent chance that I would ever say yes to that because this is the
Starting point is 00:26:12 same town that let Kevin Garnett and Randy Moss walk out the door. So absolutely not letting just the Jefferson go somewhere else and win a Super Bowl. But he his presence makes it possible to be back quickly. And I don't think that we knew that Nico Collins was as good as he was going to be, but the fact that CJ Stroud can just heave the football as far as he wants and have some dude go track it down is a pretty nice little asset. And so I think that if you hit on this person, that it can come together faster than you think. And we've seen that in numerous examples. But my question for you is, how do you do it?
Starting point is 00:26:51 Because you were just talking about the draft order and so forth. You only have, I believe it's 11 and 42 in the top 100. I don't think as of right now they have a third. Now, I haven't checked the draft order recently, but I think that's right. So they're not stocked with draft capital to move up. So they'd have to reach into their future capital first, second, whatever it's going to take.
Starting point is 00:27:12 The teams at the top want to draft quarterbacks more likely than not. But do you risk trying to get to the second wave? Do you do a Trey Lance trade and give up everything? How do you approach getting this quarterback? Yeah, I think you almost have to do it in waves, right?
Starting point is 00:27:31 I think you almost have to – I think you have to do what Buffalo did, right? I think that this is a Tyrod Taylor situation, you know, almost, right, where you kind of – or Alex Smith, right? The Chiefs, when they were 2-14, they had the first pick, and that was the Geno Smith, who was the E.J. Manuel year. And they ended up being like Eric Fisher, and then they kept waiting, right? And the funny part about the Patrick Mahomes thing is they tried to trade up for up for Johnny Mantell failed they tried to trade up for Paxton Lynch failed they tried to trade up for Patrick and they won you know ended up ended up working so you know be careful what
Starting point is 00:28:13 to wish for I think that you know given where they are in my opinion like you're gonna probably get Williams or May one or two and I don't think it's a lot that williams will go first i think he's under six feet um from what i'm hearing from sources i'm it's a um it's a it's not necessarily there's some character concerns and and again i'm not i'm not making a value judgment i'm that's what i'm hearing i i'm not saying i i think that there was a true um so you might get those two and i think jayden daniels is kind of in that three range. Jaden Daniels has some sack avoidance issues where I wouldn't necessarily draft him third. And then you got your preference between Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix,
Starting point is 00:28:59 you know, kind of guys like that. But I don't know if the league is as high on some of those. So, like, if I were – and then you have – and I know Jaron Hall looked like crap this year, right? But you also have Jaron Hall, and you also have Kevin O'Connell, who has cut his teeth in the NFL developing quarterbacks. So, like, don't give up on Jaron Hall, right? Carolina, don't give up on Bryce Young, right? Like, two years ago, Matt Jones was the best quarterback in that class.
Starting point is 00:29:26 People forget, you know. So Jaron Hall is one of your guys. Then, you know, stock up. Like my thing is lose this year. Like tank this year. That's my prescription. Like we all talk about, oh, this next draft class is going to be the best. And like we don't know. Like we just don't know't know right last year we thought Caleb Williams was the next Patrick
Starting point is 00:29:49 Mahomes and now we're not quite as sure because when he played Washington and when he played Notre Dame you know Quincy went to that Notre Dame game didn't look all that great right so my thing is is like lean into the uncertainty, make Washington take Drake May, make Chicago take Caleb Williams, you know, make them be more certain than you. Right. You have 11 and what's a 44. Right. Take make 11 and make make those two picks 17, 32, 52 and six. You know what I'm saying? Make those that. Right. And then take Bo Nix, who has a really good sack rate, right? And then have Bo Nix, have Jaron Hall, have a veteran there. There's a lot of good veterans that are kind of in that free agency this year. And go into the year, or go into the year with Nick Mullins.
Starting point is 00:30:37 Nick Mullins is a fun quarterback, an entertaining quarterback. And if this is an entertainment product, you're not going to win with Kirk Cousins this year. You're not going to win with Nick Mullins this year, right? The only way you're going to win is with a young quarterback. And you're not going to be able to access a young quarterback this year. That's going to be like an elite blue chip guy. So that would be my prescription would be, I would punt on trying to get one of the truly elite guys this year and build up the war chest for the next few years. So when you look at the top of the draft, it's very hard to see them being able to put up enough unless they're throwing Justin Jefferson in the deal because the teams at the top are so
Starting point is 00:31:17 desperate for quarterbacks. Personally, I think that some teams might be a little more afraid of Jaden Daniels and that that might be the guy who's an opportunity at like number five. If the New England Patriots think, okay, we want a veteran quarterback and we want Marvin Harrison Jr. or something like that, or if it's Arizona and they want the receiver from LSU, right? So you get to number four, number five, then possibly. But the issue is that other teams with more draft capital or just as much uh can throw you know can get closer if you're at
Starting point is 00:31:51 number eight and you're atlanta that's worth more than number 11 so you can get closer with the same amount of other stuff thrown on top and they need a quarterback and and the the giants should probably draft a quarterback like there's just so many teams that are looking at three dudes saying, hey, we want them, and they could ultimately just go one, two, three. So that's where – when I look at the other prospects, though, I have just looked at this a million different times in a million different ways with the first-round quarterbacks, and I can't make anything of the order and who's going to be good and who's not.
Starting point is 00:32:24 And in 2020, everybody was good. Every single one. They went all over the place. They went number one. They went second round. They went 26th and all of them turned out. So I don't think the odds are wildly different. If you stay at 11, the trade down is a little risky because you might not get your quarterback
Starting point is 00:32:42 if someone else takes him, but they usually have good intel. But I think that you're better off based on history of busts and who's successful that we all talk ourselves into. Well, this guy has to be way better than that guy. And sometimes Lamar Jackson gets taken as the fifth quarterback and ends up being the best one of the group or, know i guess tied and after and and if you look at the history of draft data generally speaking after the first few quarterbacks go the the the later quarterbacks drop further than you think right so levis is obviously the example but like look at look at like look at old mock drafts look at at betting odds history of the drafts. Jordan Love was mocked.
Starting point is 00:33:27 I think his over-under in that draft was like 23.5. He fell further than that. Will Levis, obviously, his over-under was like 6.5 or something last year. He followed through the second round. Lamars was, I remember this because I bet it, 16.5. He followed through 32. Drew Locke was our favorite to go in the first round. He went to 32. Drew Locke was a favorite to go in the first round. He went 40th.
Starting point is 00:33:46 So generally speaking, you do not have to be desperate to get that last first round quarterback because every team finds, once the whole league calls the first few elite guys, everybody, and Quasey as well, finds enough problems with that last guy to pass on him and then they all go google because they all are like okay once all the teams push the quarterbacks to the top they're like oh i'm getting a deal on the the left tackle four because if the board shook out without positional value which is how most of these scouts and gms think they don't think positional value the same way we do it's still kind of antiqu. They think they're getting a deal on a safety because the quarterbacks, they think, are overvalued by the league. So generally, you know, Bo Nix is probably going to fall further than you and I think.
Starting point is 00:34:33 And so you're probably going to get a deal. Bridgewater fell to 32 for the Vikings, for example. And that, you know, Bridgewater is pretty good value for the Vikings until he got hurt. Folks, if you've been listening to the show, then you know how much fun we have been having with prize picks this year. Just go to prize picks.com slash purple. Use the code purple for a first deposit match up to $100. And let me tell you how it works.
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Starting point is 00:35:30 So that is prizepicks.com slash purple. Just more or less on yardage totals. And you are in prizepicks.com slash purple. The code purple for a first deposit match up to $100. Oh, I mean, think about what that team would have been like in 2017 with a healthy developed Teddy Bridgewater. I guess that goes under the what if category that haunts Vikings fans. But to your point, I think that if you are not sacrificing your future for one guy and then sort of running into a bit of the same issue where you're still, even though you have more money to work with, still not bringing up young players. And that's your only solution is to just try to trade for other players or sign them. We've seen how dangerous of a game free agency can be.
Starting point is 00:36:22 And there's no better example than marcus davenport who the vikings gave a decent amount of money and played i think about 110 snaps this year because then you're still putting chips into the middle of the table that's why i don't like trading up as much if they did it i'd be like all right well here we go uh i mean compelling but yeah well and my thing with jayden daniels is in particular that players who have elite athleticism should just be gradar and you have that type of natural athletic skill or Josh Allen with his size and arm and speed that these players improve, I think at a higher rate than players who are already maximizing every single thing that they have.
Starting point is 00:37:17 But to your point, if they were to trade down draft Bo Nix, get another edge rusher at 38 or something and draft the corner at whatever, like that would be a really good start to what they're doing here. And if, if that was the plan all along and ends up being the plan, then I think it's got a good chance to succeed. And, you know, then you go to free agency and you bring in Tyrod Taylor who played really well for the giants or you bring in, I mean, I don't really love Marcus Mariota, but a bridge quarterback.
Starting point is 00:37:48 Bridge quarterbacks are bridge quarterbacks for a reason. Baker Mayfield did this for the Bucs and got them to the playoffs. Gardner Minshew was this close away from being in the playoffs with the Indianapolis Colts. You don't have to totally forego and totally tank like any chance to be competitive in your division. But to me, it's just live in the reality that you could be in that ballpark with a bridge quarterback or rookie quarterback right away if he's ready to go.
Starting point is 00:38:17 And the difference between that working and Kirk working is probably not that much. It might be a win. It might be two wins. But that's really about where it maxes out. I wanted to ask you, though, about the playoffs going forward here and Green Bay and Detroit. Like, are we going to what are we going to end up with here? Are we going to end up with like the nightmare NFC North scenario? Like, how are you evaluating this now?
Starting point is 00:38:43 Because I think that san francisco is probably still licking their chops yeah san francisco is a 10-point favorite and actually you know uh as we're talking right now buffalo's two touchdown uh lead on on on pittsburgh they're a 10-point favorite over pittsburgh so to give you an idea of like kind of what uh the markets are expecting out of green bay but you know who know, who knows? We've seen worse. I remember as a kid, Green Bay going to San Francisco, a team that, you know, was fresh off of a Super Bowl win, and Adam Walker catches a Steve Young pass in the flat, and Craig Newsom picks it up,
Starting point is 00:39:16 and the Packers dynasty started with Barb. So, yeah, I mean, I think it would be fun, personally, if you went Green Bay to Detroit in the NFC title game. I also like the Niners. You know, I like some people in the Niners. I think there are some good people there. In fact, Matt Polensky, their director of analytics at Minnesota Kid, went to University of Minnesota Duluth,
Starting point is 00:39:38 so I'd love to see him get an opportunity to win a Super Bowl. But, yeah, I think San Francisco is still easily the best team in the NFC. Detroit's going to be favored against either Philadelphia or Tampa Bay, whoever goes there next weekend. I think they probably want to face Tampa because A.J. Brown's probably going to come back if Philadelphia were to survive as road underdogs, or road favorites, sorry, tonight. But yeah, it's going to be nuts. I think that that's the NFC is going to be a fun one.
Starting point is 00:40:09 Whoever can knock off San Francisco. Remember San Francisco is a team looks unbeatable at times, but with injuries, which can always happen. They, they lost three games in the middle of the season to a Vikings team that as you know, was an okay team, not a great team. As team that as you know was an okay team not a great team as we as we know uh Bengals team was a good team not great team so they're and and a Browns team that got throttled uh by by Houston so um they're they're not they're not invincible they're a very good team the Niners but not invincible so anything's possible uh just on the
Starting point is 00:40:43 AFC side uh and yeah we're recording this literally during the bills game so if they blow this lead then uh things will feel different for the comment but as of this moment as of we're talking right now uh i think that buffalo is the team that nobody really wants to face but if i'm not mistaken they they play Kansas city. If they win in Buffalo, which would be some kind of unreal matchup, just those two teams throwing haymakers at each other again, would be incredible matchup. And then Baltimore is looming. I mean, when it's so funny that throughout the middle of the season, we'll talk about, there's a lot of bad football out there. Tom Brady, you know, earlier in the season, there's a lot of bad football out there.
Starting point is 00:41:25 And then we get to the end, we're like, oh, yeah, the teams at the top, they're really good. From a week to week, you can fly kind of up and down, but anybody can win at this point. Last thing, let's say they do it. Let's say they do it. I like to try to finish usually on some sort of hopeful note, but this might be the opposite, depending on your answer.
Starting point is 00:41:44 Let's say that they bring back Kirk cousins. How do you make that work? Like, I mean, I don't think any of us think you can make it work to the point of winning the Superbowl next year, but how do you make it work in the context of the bigger picture of your franchise going in that direction? Like eventually making their, their way there. Well, I mean, from a structurally,
Starting point is 00:42:09 you have to basically do what you've done, which is you, for one, you have to make nominally the contract 40 million APY. You probably have to put it out over five years. So you're gonna be paying for cousins for four more years after he's done, you know, spread it out over all those years. You're going to have to, like, I think if you commit to Cousins this year, you're going to have to turn into the Eagles and Browns. And what I mean about that is you're going to have to become a team. And the Wills have shown a commitment to this.
Starting point is 00:42:43 And I think if the wills are committed to this perfect there's no there's not unsustainable but you have to commit to being a team that pays about 20 percent over the cap in cash every year and living with dead money every year so that is the downside is what you're seeing with the Eagles, where if you have a few unlucky things, guys get hurt, guys get old, guys get, you know, James Bradbury goes from being good to being bad. You're hanging on to some bad players because the teams that do that kind of stuff, it turns into basketball, where the money is guaranteed and prorated over a bunch of years.
Starting point is 00:43:26 The pay-as-you-go teams can cut bait on players so much more quickly. The Kansas City, those teams. And so look at Kansas City has the youngest defense in football. They have the second best defense in football. And so that's where I get worried. But if they do that, they will have to do that. They will have to be the Browns. They will have to be.
Starting point is 00:43:49 And to me, I can see it with Cleveland. Cleveland's got a great roster. They've got a quarterback who has his issues, but at the time, an elite player. Philadelphia, Super Bowl caliber caliber team i get it this team is not worth doing that for but i think if they if they want to bring kirk back that's the kind of team that they have to be they have to be a buy now pay later team right which you should be if tom brady or drew breeze is your quarterback and you think you can or patrick mahomes and you think you can win right away the best i could do there is if they were using kirk cousins as their bridge quarterback and did not care at all about his feelings which is not midwestern of them but if they decided that
Starting point is 00:44:37 they were just going to draft bonix anyway so kirk remains as the quarterback they draft bonix and then they plan to either move on after a year or two years. But if I'm Kirk Cousins, I'm throwing in a no trade clause into my request because I'm not going to let you do that and then trade me away after a year. So that would be uncomfortable. But probably if there was a best possible outcome with him coming back, it would be to do what Philly did with carson wentz draft a quarterback behind him and jalen hurts or obviously what jordan love has done with the green bay packers
Starting point is 00:45:10 well and and isn't that kind of the antithesis of how kirk described the conditions under which he'd return which is it doesn't even the money doesn't even matter to kirk it's like what the money represents which is like he i don't think even even Kirk cares about a one-year $40 million deal. It's more like one year, 40 million represents a bridge QB versus that's our quarterback. And so like, I think that the contract structure of the contract structure and his agent is a genius, probably a first ballot hall of fame agent. His agent's not going to, his agent's not going to look at it.
Starting point is 00:45:41 Like Casey's very bright, but he's not going to be able to like, I would smart this guy. So he's not going to be able to like outsmart this guy so the the he's not gonna be able to put a contract by this guy's desk and be like you know like he's gonna be able to see it and be like this is either you're the long-term starter here or you're a bridge and if it's you're a bridge i think he's turning it down right so you know and so vikings fans ask yourself do you is he your long-term starting quarterback? Is 36-year-old Kirk Cousins your long-term starter? No, right? So, you know, like, and Kirk Cousins, do you want to be a bridge quarterback? You probably deserve better in this league, right?
Starting point is 00:46:16 Go to Atlanta and play with three top 10 picks. You know, you deserve better. And the Vikings have paid you well. Like, it's not that the vikings uh failed kirk it's just it's time like like it's like the belichick patriots bill didn't fail the patriots and the patriots didn't fail bill it's just time to move on sometimes these divorces are amicable now i think that's how it should be and if i'm on kirk cousin's side and I was his agent, which I would just be much better at my job if I was him, then I would be saying to Kirk, like, you have, you have two years probably left in your football
Starting point is 00:46:54 life. Do you want to play with the 23rd ranked defense? Because as of right now, or do you want to do this again? Which is where, you know, you get let down by the roster and the division beats you up and Montez sweats, not going away. So, or do you want to play the Falcons bucks and sit in the Panthers? Who's who's the bucks QB of the future. Who's who's like, are you afraid of the Panthers? Are you afraid? It just makes so much more sense, but of course they have to want him first and uh we'll see if that ends up playing
Starting point is 00:47:29 out uh eric eager sumer sports show with uh you and thomas dimitrov is an absolute must listen uh i listened to every episode on my little jogs or now when it's minus five outside i got the little guy i got the little bike uh down in the basement. So anyway, that's what I do. People should also make sure that they check that out, as well as your weekly column on Summersports.com. So great stuff. Great to get together with you again. And I promise you, we will do it again,
Starting point is 00:47:58 maybe a little closer to free agency and draft season, but we will get together for sure. Thanks, Eric. It's a pleasure. You're the best. Have a good one.

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