Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - ESPN says Vikings will 'be aggressive' to trade up -- let's rank QB outcomes (part 1)

Episode Date: March 24, 2024

ESPN reported that people around the league believe that the Vikings will be aggressive in trading up for a quarterback. What's our confidence level that it happens? Mel Kiper of ESPN mocked the Vikings sticking at 11 and getting JJ McCarthy. So let's rank the best to worst outcomes at QB for the Vikings in the draft and talk timeline for a potential trade. https://surfshark.deals/PURPLEINSIDER Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here. And look, we don't have any definitive reporting. I'm just going to come out and say it. There is no definitive reporting today about what is going to happen with the Minnesota Vikings. But there are rumors. And so long as there are rumors, then we will be here on Purple Insider to talk about those rumors and also your thoughts on what is next for the Vikings at their quarterback position. Also, they missed out on LeJarius Sneed, who was not really traded for all that much. I want to

talk a little bit about that. And I have ranked the outcomes. I got enough emails asking for pie charts, asking for rankings. So I've made a top five outcomes that I think would be best for the Minnesota Vikings heading into the draft with the potential to trade up and all of that that is going on now. And look, we might have some movement on this as the owners meetings get going. So I've got a few things to get to ESPN, a couple of things from them and something that Dan Quinn said to Tom Pellicero. Then I'll get to my list of the five outcomes. So why don't we dive into that right off the bat here with what Matt Miller wrote for ESPN. He wrote this on ESPN.com, their draft analyst. He says the Vikings sent neither Kwesi Adafo-Momensa nor coach Kevin O'Connell

to Michigan for the pro day on Friday, but quarterbacks coach Josh McCown was firmly planted right behind McCarthy during his 25-minute throwing session. In talking to NFL personnel while on the road at pro days this week, the feeling is still that the Vikings will be aggressive in trading up to the number four or number five spot to land the Michigan quarterback. One general manager I talked to this week said McCarthy is a top six pick right now. The question is who will trade up to get him? So that is the feeling of the top ESPN draft analyst from talking to folks around the league. And the interesting thing there I thought was the mention of the number five pick. Now we have mostly talked about

the number four selection of Arizona as being the one that is the most obviously for sale, but have not really discussed too much the number five pick. Now here's one thing I wonder about the number five pick in the Vikings. Would Jim Harbaugh hold some bad feelings against the Vikings for not hiring him a couple of years ago? Would he be willing to part ways with that pick? So I know that they have a general manager that's not Jim Harbaugh, but let's be honest when you hire Jim Harbaugh, like that's your guy, right? That's the guy who's calling the shots. And is he going to be okay with a pick swap or does he not care? Maybe Jim Harbaugh is the type of guy who says no hard feelings. I don't know. He does

strike me as the type of person that would hold a grudge though. Uh, if it's based on his competitiveness throughout the years. So I'm not convinced that number five is at play if Harbaugh would move with the Vikings, but it does make a lot of sense because the Arizona Cardinals, well, they have said that they are open for business and Monty Austin for their general manager said that there's a neon sign that says we're open. I still wonder if they want to stick and pick with Marvin Harrison jr. I mean, it's hard to come across wide receiver prospects of this caliber. So would Arizona really want to move back all the way to number 11 and get the third best wide receiver prospect instead

of whoever they've been targeting, uh, targeting, whether it's Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Neighbors, which one of those guys they want, I don't know. But those are prospects that are considered high above what you usually expect for a top wide receiver. These guys are considered two of the best prospects at that position in a long time. So would Arizona want to take themselves out of that conversation? And the Chargers, a lot of people have connected them to offensive linemen like Joe Alt, but I mean, they're in desperate need of wide receivers too. Would they be the team that rather thinking, well, okay, Marvin Harrison Jr. will be off the board so we could move back instead. It is in play that the

Vikings could move up to number five, but that still leaves the door open. And the reason I don't love it so much for the New York giants to jump over the Vikings to get their quarterback at number four. And then the Vikings would be left telling us that they wanted Dallas Turner the whole time, or whoever they would draft with that draft pick at maybe they would have to trade back. I mean, I don't know, trade up to five, trade back again. Or I mean, you can't pick Bo Nix or Michael Penix at that position, right? I mean, they would have to be sure from their intel that the Giants weren't going to be able to move up, but how can you ever really be all that sure? So he mentions number five. I still think

number four is the place that the Vikings would like to go. So that was sort of rumor number one with Matt Miller saying, Hey, the Vikings are still going to be aggressive here. This just after Albert Breer the other day. And we talked quite a bit about that. Albert Breer said, Hey, the Vikings have been told polite nose, but polite. No, in March might not be polite. No later on, but the top three teams have given them the polite. No, which leaves, you know, potentially number four. So there's still those options on the table, which I wanted to get to from Washington. And, uh, Quinn talking with Tom Pellicero about whether they would trade up. And this is what Dan Quinn had to say. He says, yes, I would say it's ringing, referring to obviously his phone. And because like you said, a lot of the talent of the group this year.

So I would anticipate fielding these calls as it goes through. And usually it's not necessary later than number six or seven, because those are the teams in the top four or five that somebody, let's see, there's somebody that somebody has targeted. And I think it's most likely, well, I've got to take a shot. A lot of times it's a no, like thanks for calling, but it's part of the process, I've got to take a shot. A lot of times it's a no, like thanks for calling, but it's part of the process and you have to do your due diligence to listen and to find out and just make sure like there is somebody, uh, something that you couldn't refuse. I certainly walked past and earmuffs, everybody certainly walked past it in the hallway when I was with the Cowboys years ago, a trade that involved Herschel Walker. It had to come up, right? And many draft picks that

changed their organization. So I think anybody in a personnel with the skills of Adam Peters, their general manager, they're going to listen, but there's only so many things you'd consider and it better be really good. So would Washington think about maybe a deal here where the Vikings move up to four and then move up again? Could that be something that's possible? Now, I don't know how much draft capital you could possibly muster, but if you were using number 11 and 23 and then using 2025 first to get up to number two, that would be if Washington liked, say, J.J. McCarthy and didn't like Drake May as much. I mean, there's so many different options here.

But that sounded to me like Dan Quinn was saying, yeah, I mean, the door is closed unless you want to open it, but obviously they want a quarterback, so they would not be moving back past number four. So I have one more thing to read, and then I want to get to LeJarius Sneed, and then I want to get to my countdown list, and then I'll get to your comments. So this is from Mel Kuyper in his most recent mock, and this was transcribed by vikings.com. Mel Kiper said the Vikings are now the most interesting team in the draft. They just acquired another first

round pick in the deal from the Texans, giving them the capital to move up and take a quarterback if they got the opportunity, but how far could they move up? Remember it takes two sides to make a trade. Would the Giants at six risk missing out on one of the receivers? So he doesn't seem to think that the Giants are taking J.J. McCarthy there. Would the Titans at number seven want to risk missing out on their preferred tackle? Would the Falcons or Bears at number nine want to risk not getting an edge rusher they like? There's not an easy match unless Minnesota is willing to give up future picks.

So that is the note that I wanted to bring up is if we're talking about having to trade up to four and give up a future first, then it becomes a lot to move up for JJ McCarthy potentially. Or, you know, you never know. JJ McCarthy could go number three to new England and give the Vikings Drake mayor, Jane Daniels. Anyway, Mel Kiper continued in this scenario, the Vikings could land their quarterback of the future anyway, with Kirk cousins gone and Sam Darnold added on a one-year deal.

It's clear. They have to add competition. All sides point to that competition coming from a rookie. McCarthy is the number 21 prospect on my big board, but I can see why some teams would covet him much higher. He has intriguing physical traits and can make every throw. Either way, if Minnesota really wants to try to move up in round one for a quarterback, I could see them waiting until draft day to see how the board shakes out. Draft day? That's a long time from now. That would be a long time for us to wait and not have resolution on this, whether they were going to trade up if we have to wait all the way until draft day. I will make my best efforts to think of 7,000 different ways

to talk about this until we get there. But draft day, that's like a month from now. I want it now, as Homer Simpson might say. So those are the three kind of rumors, all of them pointing to don't give up on the trade up idea. I think Washington is the most far fetched, but at very least Dan Quinn is saying, well, you know, I remember the Herschel Walker trade. Thanks for bringing that up, Dan. But, uh, when, you know, he's saying like, Hey, if you're going to go crazy, then we might let you go crazy is crazy.

11 23 and next year's first, probably not because Washington's going to pick a quarterback. It would require the Vikings to move up and then do something else and then give up. I don't know another future first or something like that. It doesn't seem that easy to do, but if they were think about if the Vikings traded up to four and then Washington was comfortable with any of the four quarterbacks and said, okay, we'll trade down with you and you can have Drake may at number two, and we'll take JJ McCarthy at number four. And we'd be watching and tracking the future of that trade for the rest of our existence. Uh, that would make for a really fun draft night. If all

that moving around was happening all at once, oh my gosh, the draft live stream would implode at that point. YouTube could not handle the amount of hotness that would come from the takes about the Vikings doing that. But not impossible. I think still the most likely scenario remains, in my opinion, them getting to four or five

and then drafting a quarterback there. But because I care so much and I was doing nothing else except for watching basketball today, I decided to make a of to the most in support of, or the one that I think would be, you know, from all of these outcomes result in the Vikings getting a quarterback because I didn't rank the apocalypse. Okay. So we're not, we're not ranking the biggest disaster, which would be the Vikings trade up to number five and then the giants jump them. And then they don't know what to do like that i didn't rank that and all of the rankings they got a quarterback in the draft so i'll count them down from five to one this is just how i see the different possibilities of the vikings doing this

and which ones i think would be the most ideal so number five i have j I have JJ McCarthy being taken at number four for number 11, 23, and next year's first round draft pick. Well, I really appreciate the idea of them getting JJ McCarthy if it's their guy and that's who they love so much. That is a lot to give up for a prospect that as you heard Mel Kiper say was ranked 21st on his big board and who a lot of the draft universe did not necessarily have at that level until the combine and i was just talking with my friend tage seth from sumer sports the other day about players who have sudden rises at the combine and he had written an article on this now it's not a guarantee that players who have a sudden rise at the combine won't work out but the odds are

different from a player who's locked in as a first round draft pick and then solidifies that all the way through the process versus one who is more of a early second, late first, and then suddenly becomes a top, top prospect after, or at least by the consensus. I mean, this is by the consensus. We don't know what teams think, but by the consensus mock drafts, there is some correlation to that being a little bit of a red flag.

I'm not saying that he's a bust or whatever. It's just, it raises a bit of an eyebrow, uh, when that happens, at least from the data historically. Now that could be to some extent, you know, being wowed by physical traits, which I don't know that that was JJ McCarthy. I think McCarthy wowed people, or at least from what it sounds like in the interview process, in the way he handled the whole thing and the improvement he showed on some of his throwing technique. That's what it sounds like. Still feels like a lot to give up three firsts versus, or a pick swap in two firsts.

People get weird about that. Uh, but three firsts for a first, uh, to take JJ McCarthy is a lot in comparison to say, taking Pennix and a defensive player. I, you know, which is where I went next. Number four on my list would be Pennix or Bo Nix. You could talk me into either one. I probably lean toward Pennix because of his arm strength, but Bo Nix, Bo Nix is crazy stat. Bo Nix was sacked like six times all of last year. That is wild. There's no offensive line in the world that's good enough to make a quarterback get sacked six times.

That's on a guy getting rid of the football. Anyway, so Pennix or Nix at 11, which seems high for them, but you make sure you get your guy. And then the defensive tackle from Illinois, Johnny Newton, or a cornerback. I mean, whichever one drops. I mean, Quinion Mitchell is obviously the one who's being talked about the most. Sometimes the most talked about guy doesn't get taken the highest. So I'll throw out his name or Kool-Aid McKinstry, or is it Terry and Arnold? Like there's, there's several corners and one might be there. You could certainly talk me into that as opposed to a defensive tackle.

I just really have this thing, this fixation on the defensive tackle. So, uh, this is a good outcome for them to just stick and pick, get a good defensive prospect. And did you reach on the quarterback? Yes. But does that matter that much? Not really, uh, because you ended up getting your guy. So that is a favorable outcome.

I have that at number four. Number three, I have the switch of that, which is taking one of the elite defensive line prospects, Byron Murphy or Dallas Turner. And of course, look, I'm going to really lean toward the defensive tackle, but it's not like Andrew Van Ginkle precludes you from taking Dallas Turner. Like Van Ginkle is a guy who can move around and play a lot of different positions and he's only on a two-year deal. So if Turner was there or Jared verse, I just wrote Dallas Turner on the list, but Jared verse or whoever they want, the kid from UCLA, whatever. It doesn't matter. One of the top defensive line prospects.

And then waiting around. Now, this one I like as an outcome, but at the same time, this is the most scary, I think, because that means you've got to wait through the Broncos, through the Raiders. Your intel has to be really good that they are not in love with one of those quarterbacks, because if they are, then you've got yourself a problem. But if they were to come away on draft

night with Byron Murphy, the second and Michael Penix Jr. I mean, you're getting a difference making potential game wrecking defensive tackle and your future quarterback. And is there a risk to that versus, you know, someone you take higher? Yes. But we also, Penix threw for 4,900 yards in 15 games. I mean, he's got the numbers to back it up. He's got the arm talent to back it up. He gets rid of the football. Like I would be comfortable with that outcome. Number two on my list, and this is only supposing that Kevin O'Connell loves J.J. McCarthy and that they love him in the interviews, they love him in the workout, and Josh McCown loved what he saw when he went to his pro day, if that's the case, I am assuming in this ranking that Kevin O'Connell wants JJ McCarthy. I do not know that the draft analysts don't know that history shows that nobody except for Kevin O'Connell knows that. And he's not going to tell anybody because they don't, but let's just assume that the

Intel is correct and that the Vikings would be interested in taking McCarthy as the entire world seems to think. Okay. We'll just assume that for now. That would be number two on my list would be to trade up to five and not have to give up the future first. So if they only gave up 11, 25, and let's say a fourth and we're able to get to, and Arizona stuck at four, took their receiver, and the Vikings took McCarthy at five, I would say that is a tremendous outcome. You didn't have to wash out the entire future. You only used really to move up to 23.

It was just a second round pick from 2025 and a little change to move up. So you essentially, if this was the outcome would give up number 11 and a second round pick from the following year and a little bit of like late draft capital to move up. That's not that much. That's not really very much at all overall. And this would be a tremendous outcome for them because you wouldn't feel like you were throwing the entire draft in the garbage for next year. You're going to want to draft defensive players. You're going to want to draft whatever offensive lineman, whatever it's going to be for 2025. That is a good outcome, but it's not my number one. My number one is Drake may at three or two, I suppose, no matter what the cost. That is the other way that they

could go about this still. I think that the New England Patriots might be playing coy a little bit. They might want the Vikings to get to four first and then to two or three to take their guy. But Drake May, to me, is the best fit, the highest ceiling, the guy who you could look at as your franchise quarterback for 10 years that is going to need, yeah, some development, but you cannot replace the size, the running ability, the downfield passing, the arm strength, just the perfect fit. And if it costs the farm, it costs the farm because you've already got so much set up in place for Drake May to succeed in the form of Jefferson, Addison, Hawkinson, and now Aaron Jones in the backfield. If he starts right away, you have two former quarterbacks working directly with him. Folks, have you ever heard of test driving a phone network?

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based on open signal independent data visit uscellular.com for details everything is in place for that guy to become the best version of what he can be and so that is my number one outcome for this entire thing which way it goes i have no idea so think about in the chat your reactions and i see you chattering over there i appreciate that i'll get to you guys in a second but just one more thing before we get into the chat portion here is uh legerius neat so the vikings were reportedly interested early on in the process in legerius Sneed, the cornerback from the Kansas City Chiefs, who played a huge role in them winning the Super Bowl. And the cost was only a 2025 third round

pick, which the Vikings have apparently, I believe, two 2025 third round picks, or that's, are we including, draft capital is hard to keep track of. Are we including comp picks in that? But maybe they'll get, you know, other, I don't know, whatever. They'll probably get other third round picks. Uh, so they would have had to give up more than that. It would have been obviously that and some change. I don't think the issue for getting luxurious need for the Vikings would have been topping the draft capital that the Tennessee Titans gave up. I think it would be the $55 million guaranteed that he immediately signed with the Tennessee Titans, where it was clearly a trade and sign to the Titans that they had worked that whole deal out before he was even moved.

And that's a lot for a corner who, you know, like, look, he's extremely, extremely good. But, you know, a friend of mine, my accountant, Ralph, who I talk football with all the time, because of course, like I've got, I've got a financial guy who used to play football in college. And I got an accountant who loves football and played football in high school. So, you know, we, we keep the team like tight knit around ball. Anyway, the point is that his theory, my accountant's theory about cornerbacks, I really like it. And he's going

to love that. I mentioned it on the show is that by the time you are realizing how good they are, they're on the other side. So by the time it gets to 2017 and Xavier Rhodes has that incredible year and gets all the hype and everything else, he's probably getting to his peak and is not going to do it again. And so I'm not saying that LeJarrius Sneed wouldn't have been a tremendous addition for the Vikings, but corners can be very risky to lock into long-term deals. They get hurt a lot. They have very up and down types of years. Some years they're amazing. Some years they're amazing. Some years they're not. There are very few corners that have been unbelievable year after year after year. And usually if that's the case, that means you drafted them like a Patrick Sertan. You

drafted them. And then over a couple of years, and that was even the case with Xavier Rhodes, that they became great. So the Vikings not trading for Snead and not paying 55 guaranteed. It's not that they couldn't have afforded it. And we've talked about that a lot. I just think it was probably the wrong time to do it. Now they still need cornerback help because I'm not super confident in Shaq Griffin and what they have right now. But I understand why you can wait if you're the Vikings to make this move,

especially when you're thinking about sort of now and later stuff, if you get sneed and then he starts to fall off and you're paying him all this money. And then like, we've seen this kind of go wrong before. Was it, I don't even remember the guy for the jets years ago. He had a good year with the Rams got paid like crazy, and it was a great defense all around. Trenton McDuffie was great. Chris Jones is great. Steve Spagnuolo is great. I mean, I think that it's all right, even though you're knowing that you're getting all that cap space in the future, it's all right for the Vikings to have said, let's be diligent about how we spend this. There will be other corners that come available in the future. Let's try to get one then that's not going to come off of a Super Bowl

season. Plus also worth mentioning, he played in the Super Bowl, which means he played a lot of extra football games, a lot of mileage on the body. I just think it probably made more sense for the Vikings to not go after Legereus need at that price. So there you have it. There is my top five list. There's the latest on the rumors. Now tell me what you guys like as your favorites. If you have Legereus need reactions, go ahead, but your favorite of the five.

So that's what I want to know from, uh, from you guys, uh, locked on Titans. Yeah. I mean, uh, they're going to talk about that and, uh, they're spending all that money and look, you know what the Titans have done. And I don't really believe in it necessarily, but they drafted their quarterback last year and now they just paid for Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, the Jerry is needus Sneed. This is you. This is you, right? In the future, in the year 2025, this is you. You don't have to do it this year, but you can certainly do it for next year.

So let's see. Andre says, number one for the win, Drake May by any means. Yeah, I figured that that would be most people's favorite and none of us really know if they love Drake may as much as I think they would. But when we just talk about what someone can be on the highest end and you compare the profile of Drake may just the profile of him, the, I mean, the stats that he put up, his numbers dropped a little last year, but the accumulation of his last two years is really, really excellent. And he was one of the top, I think maybe he was something like 10th or something in all

of college football and PFF grade. And I looked this up, his offensive line ranked 39th in college football and his receivers 55th last year. So not a lot of help, but when we, when we paint the picture of Drake may, we have often seen this player succeed and become very good. Doesn't mean he'll become Josh Allen, but we've seen them become Eli Manning. We've seen them become Matthew Stafford or Carson Palmer pre-injury, but even later in his career, Carson Palmer was great. Like this guy has failed for sure. But even the worst version of this guy is like Ryan Tannehill. I mean, size and arm talent is a big, big, big deal,

and it can overcome a lot. And if they give up a lot to get it, at least we know that the ceiling of this is extremely, extremely high. And if it fails, it fails. If he becomes Blake Bortles, then he becomes Blake Bortles. But, you know, Drake May has been locked into this top draft pick for quite some time. This isn't like a late rise or somebody you have to talk yourself into. This is somebody that takes about three seconds of watching him throw the football to be like, that'll work. Yeah, that'll work.

Let's see. Invasion likes Byron Murphy murphy the second at 11 and pennix at 23 that's yeah i mean that's something that i have been talked into more and more because i like pennix and also because the accumulative value uh which is you know having a defensive tackle with that type of um you know that type of ability in the pass rush. I think Byron Murphy had something like 45 pressures and 200-something snaps. I mean, he was just absolutely dominating. That could overall total value if you got a quarterback that was just good

and maybe not even great, but you have a defense that can rank in the top five because you create pressure from all areas. You add a corner, you've got great safeties. Like it all starts to come together in that case. The only problem with that scenario is waiting is you draft Murphy at 11 and then you're going, okay, is somebody going to take him? Is somebody going to take him? And then when they, you know, if somebody else takes him, what do you do then? I mean, if somebody takes Bo Nix and Michael Penix before 23, then, oh my gosh, you're just completely out in the cold and it's going to be terrible. So you don't want that. That is the doomsday scenario that you don't want. And that's why it's hard to just assume that the rest of the league is not as

high on Pennix enough to draft them at 23. And then I guess also I'd wonder if nobody else wanted him before then with QB needy teams, what are you missing? Is there something that you're betting on that they weren't willing to? Eric asks, can the Vikings GM call other GMs to make sure that they can all get their guy they want for each position? You could try. You can most certainly try. I've had that question before. Can they call Washington and see if they're going to take Dre May? And you certainly can. You can try. They don't have to tell you, though. I don't think that Washington would say to the Vikings,

oh, yeah, let me tell you what exactly we're doing so you can manage your plans. They're in the same conference in the NFC. Washington wants to win as much as the Vikings do. So, you know. Juan says, I wouldn't underestimate the fact that Houston reached out with the trade for 23. What this says is that Kweisi took it for the flexibility, not that he took it with another trade established. Yeah, I think that's probably right. But at the same time, the Texans only call you because they know you're looking right they call you because they know hey

the Vikings might want to do this and we want to accumulate more future draft capital but that doesn't mean that they weren't looking to do it already or that they hadn't already sent a group chat that said hey if anybody's got any picks that are in the first round, we'll give up a lot for it. So maybe you could just reach out to us. I mean, I think that the Texans understanding what the Vikings would be looking for and need to trade up probably resulted in them reaching out. So I,

you know, I don't think that doesn't mean it doesn't mean that wasn't the Vikings plan to get another draft pick and try to move up. It just worked out maybe the best for them. Good question from Tracer here. Does Kweisi have a line in the sand on trading like he does player contracts? That I do not know because we only have to judge when it becomes to the draft that Kweisi Adafo-Mensah likes trading down, but that's not unique. I mean, Baltimore likes to trade down. I think

new England used to do that, uh, back in the day, Rick Spielman would trade down. Remember when Rick Spielman traded back and back and back and back all the way to the, I think it was the last pick of the third and took a running back. It was like, huh? Or was it out of the third to take Jalen Holmes? I don't remember. But like a lot of GMs like to trade down when we're not talking about quarterback, when we're talking about quarterback, it's just a totally different story. Throw everything else that you want out of the lit or that you, you know, I should say throw everything else that you know

about this GM out when it comes to the quarterback, because the value of hitting on the quarterback is more than whatever other player you draft with a future first round draft pick. It's worth so much in the cap space difference between what you'd have to pay for Kirk Cousins and what you are paying that quarterback, the surplus value of that, the amount of money that they can spend next year. It's just all worth so much to get that quarterback that you can't really draw a hard line in the sand. I mean, everyone has a line for everything. I mean, you know, if I really, I think I used this example the other night, but like selling a house, but let's flip it around to buying a house. So if you go in, you visit a house, you want it more than anything. And it's listed at $400,000

and you get in a bidding war with somebody and you just keep going up, I mean, there's gotta be, all right, we're not paying 520 for a $400,000 house, right? So there has to be, you're not paying X number, like you're not paying four firsts for JJ McCarthy, but you might, you might do three, right? So they have a line in the sand. I'm sure that they're drawing for it, but I think that line is much farther than it was for Kirk. The line in the sand for Kirk was, I don't know. Sometimes I think about the lines in the sand. Some of them are intentional. Some of their lines in the sand are like a Fox.

I mean, for Kirk, I think it was probably, they did projections to how long they could figure out how good he was going to be based on previous quarterbacks of his age, based on his history, all those types of things, and decided this is how many years we can lock ourselves into. And that was the line in the sand. I think for other guys, it was a polite, yeah, we'll bring you back if you take this terrible contract. Oh, Adam Thielen, you're not going to take it. Sorry, I guess it didn't work out, but we offered you a contract. Like you always got to do it to just say in public, well, you know, we negotiated, we had something on the table.

He decided to go another direction, put it on the player. That's different from this where it's just, you kind of got to make it happen hell uh, hell or high water. So you can't be as rigid. There's just a, Hey, if you want us to give up every single draft pick, if you want to go Mike Ditka or Herschel Walker, then maybe that is too much. Uh, Ian, I think is how it's pronounced, uh, rank this you scenario Vikings trade three first to get three, but Washington takes Drake may they pick JJ over Daniels. How would you feel about this? So that's a tough one because I have this principle when it comes to the draft that I try to stay hard line

to, which is that you can't predict how it's going to work out. Right. And everything about all the historical analysis that's ever been done says that your draft night opinion does not matter that much, right? That the draft grades, people have studied the draft grades. What's the correlation between draft grade and success of the draft? The answer is almost nothing, right? And maybe reaching on a guy is a little more risky than not, but it's all noisy. It's all, there's no real good way to predict it. I think in that case, I would probably be sort of saying this exact same thing through a little bit of gritted teeth because Jaden Daniels is so exciting. He's just, I mean, you look at his performance last year.

This guy put up 50 touchdowns. I was looking this up. He averaged two more yards per carry than Lamar Jackson as a runner. And that gives you a floor right off the bat that you can be scary as a runner. And look, you've got a great team. He was an accurate passer. He was a really accurate downfield passer. I mean, he kind of has a little bit of everything. And if they took somebody who does not have those super special tools and who's talked about as needing development

and the biggest thing that they're given as their top, you know, asset is that they are a winner. Like that would be hard for me to kind of wrap my head around because we've seen so many quarterbacks like Jaden Daniels, the running quarterbacks, only he's the best passer of these guys that we've seen in a long time. And yeah, you could say he had great receivers, but he won the Heisman. I mean, it wasn't like he had great receivers and he threw for 23 touchdowns.

I mean, he threw for 40 touchdowns and he averaged 11 yards a pass. When the guy was running play action, he averaged like 12 yards a throw. I mean, he's just wild. And yeah, he had great receivers, but you have to throw the ball accurately to those receivers.

And he protected the football. He didn't turn it over. He had an incredibly low turnover rate. Like there's so much there that to me says this could be special that I would prefer Daniels. But I also recognize that Daniels might become just a guy. He might become Justin Fields, for example, and JJ McCarthy might fit much better with what Kevin O'Connell wants to do. So that's where the conflict would be for me,

because if JJ McCarthy fits better with O'Connell, then the odds of success are higher. And I don't want to use Josh Dobbs as an example, because I think that you'd be just, you know, you'd be designing your offense entirely around Jaden Daniels if you draft him. So, and look, that might be their guy. We've kind of assumed that it wasn't, but it might be. I mean, I don't know. Like Kevin O'Connell was a great running quarterback in college and Josh McCown is an unbelievable athlete when he played.

So those guys might love Jaden Daniels. They might be doing all this for Jaden Daniels. I don't really know. But in your scenario where they draft McCarthy, that would be the way that I would look at it is look, it is a principle of mine that I always look at the logic of the pick and not try to predict whether it's going to work out or not, or think I know more about this prospect than the front office does and the Intel and all those things. So we judge the positional value, what you gave up to get it, what the thought process was. And if their thought process was, this is the best fit with Kevin O'Connell. It's the best fit with Justin Jefferson. It's the best fit with their offense to potentially have a top five offense in the future. Then that logic works out. And if Jaden Daniels becomes Dante Culpepper,

except for with fewer turnovers, then well, then I guess it happens. But you know, that is, that's a scenario where it would be a debate for a long time, for sure. That would be one of those we're arguing about that for absolutely ever until it's decided which one of those two quarterbacks works out. And it's not the craziest thing I've ever heard. Folks, if you don't know what a VPN is, you might actually need one and not even realize it. If you already know the positives, you also might not be using the right product.

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That is surfshark.deals slash purple insider. Charlie says Dallas Turner is going to be special. I agree. I really, really enjoyed watching Dallas Turner this year. He's kind of a freak and I'm a Bo Nix believer. So I like that option. I mean, the Bo Nix thing, what I keep coming back to is if that was the pick, Bo Nix is so good at executing an offense that, and does have athleticism and ran for a lot of

yards and was a good athlete, you know, his whole career, it was really the part where it's throwing on time, throwing to the right places, but he developed that over the years. And I think that Bo Nix would have a good chance to step in right away and play right away as their first round pick. I don't know what the league thinks of Bo Nix because when I watch him, I see the ball come out on time. And I've mentioned to you that this, this like thing for me that just works with my brain and watching football is when the ball comes out on time and it's not just screens. I here's a stat for you. That's kind of crazy. I ran across about Bo Nix when he was throwing over 20 yards, he average held onto the football only three

seconds. That's like the NFL is dropping back and getting the ball out still under three seconds. Even when you're throwing deep, that means you're processing quickly that, and his numbers throwing over 10 yards were really good. So it is when you're trying to project the arm strength. No, I don't see Josh Allen there. I don't see a CJ Stroud thrower of the football, but it might be really important to O'Connell when you're talking about rhythm and timing. That just sounds like a fit. That's why you can't really talk me out of Pennix and Knicks if those guys are the pick, because both of them are good at throwing on time and getting rid of the football. So, you know, I, I think that either one of those guys would be a fit and with, uh, Dallas Turner or Byron Murphy, they need that. They need guys to work with. And I ran across a stat, but it applies for defensive tackles applies for defensive ends is most of them are drafted at the top if they're going to be special.

And so, you know, I, I think that if, if they came away with that, it would still be a thumbs up. It would still be an a for me. Um, but you know, I think it's more ideal to draft the guy at the top. I mean, just historically speaking, if you're drafting 23rd with a quarterback, there's more risk there than if you're drafting in the top 10. I mean, that's just sort of obvious, right? If you look at the charts of draft success for historical chart, it goes down with every pick. Like every pick is less valuable. The farther you go, just like a straight down guys at the top, super valuable. Once you get past the top 15, it just goes right down. So if you're drafting a quarterback that is 23rd versus top five, I mean, naturally there's going to be less chance that that

succeeds, but, um, you know, it's, it's not like impossible that those guys could really work. I'm just making that point that, point that when you're comparing these two, taking the guy at number two has much better odds, I think, than number 23 or at least somewhat better odds. I don't think the order really matters, but that's always when they're taken sort of toward the top. But I'd still be in support of it. I'm just sort of talking my way through it.

Aaron says we can't worry about draft picks. Will anyone care about draft picks when May is a stud for the next 15 years? A 15 would be a very long career, but no, no, no one, no one will ever be upset. Think about, let's see. I mean, even, how about this?

The Los Angeles Rams gave up a lot to get Jared Goff. I forget the exact trade, but they were picking 15th, and they moved all the way up to number one. So they gave up a ton to get Jared Goff. Jared Goff took them to a Super Bowl. Jared Goff led the number one offense in the NFL in 2017. Do you think the Rams were upset about drafting Goff? It wasn't even a 15-year quarterback,

but they also used him to trade for another quarterback who won them the Super Bowl. So, I mean, like no one is going to be upset if you give up an additional first-round pick if it works out. The only concern is if it doesn't, of course, but if you pick them at 11 it doesn't work out then it's a disaster so that's always the case um it's it does make it harder though if it doesn't work out and then you don't have those other draft picks but you're taking

your shot you're taking your shot to be great and not just good uh char says, can I interest you in Bo Nix at 11 and Jackson Powers Johnson at 23? The interior offensive line people are relentless and I respect it because it's been frustrating for a long time. I don't think that that would be the pick that they would want to go after because they so badly need defense.

And if we're ranking positional value, another thing is too, that these, a lot of the quarterbacks that we're talking about have a little bit of scoot to them. So, you know, if we're talking about Bo Nix, if we're talking about JJ McCarthy, Drake May, all these guys have some mobility. Drake May is tall. It becomes a little less important.

I think that you have great interior offensive line and one of the biggest failures and, uh, you know, this would go under the, it's not all Kirk's fault thing, but one of the biggest failures of Rick Spielman is not realizing that tackles are less relevant to Kirkins than guards because he takes the interior pressure and can't escape. He can step up in the pocket and he can escape the outside rushers, but the interior pressure was what always got him because he could not escape around the outside. And he really wouldn't move outside of just like straight back and forth. And I'm sure that there's AI or whatever that has tracked this, that Cousins never moves

left or right. And if you go back and look at the way that Sean Payton and the Saints built out their offensive line, center guards, they always had humongous, beefy guards in the middle. And it was a big benefit to Drew Brees because he wasn't going to be able to run away when there was pressure. And I think that was a big failure, but if we're talking about the positional value of a, of a guard or center in the first round, it's just too much in comparison to what a defensive tackle or what a defensive end is worth. And you could try to find those other guys, but I do think we saw this year, and this is just to make your point, and I wouldn't be upset about it, that this year we saw a big jump in the price tags for guards.

So that is worth bringing up when we're talking about doing it this way. When we're talking about building the interior offensive line through a draft pick is it's something that is worth bringing up how rare it is to get great linemen and how hard it is to get them because it's difficult to go find them in free agency now when in the past i think it was much easier so i wouldn't i wouldn't be mad i would not be mad if they got an offensive lineman because that would be something to see them actually putting together an interior that was reliable. And this is proof that we really only kind of watch, you know, one team a lot, because when you go look at the grades, like on PFF for other offensive lines, interiors, there's not too many that are amazing. It's a very tough position in today's NFL now with the great defensive tackles and with all the blitzes that come, it's really, really hard to play guard. So

maybe I just talked myself into your idea. I don't know. Bob says top four quarterbacks will be gone by 11. We think, we think that's what everyone says. Maybe they're wrong. We thought that there'd be four in the top 10 last year, and there were only three and one guy was, uh, um, not actually a top prospect. So that's interesting, isn't it? Uh, panics thus panics will be gone by 23. Again, we don't really, uh, know that for sure, but it would be very, very risky to wait until 23. That's, that's what I think it would be very, very risky to wait until 23 and just hope and hope and hope and sit there and go, don't take them. Don't take our guy. Don't take our guy. Um, let's see. JP says, uh, Broncos will almost certainly take a quarterback

at 12. So then you have to sweat 12 more picks including teams that decide to trade up knowing the vikings are drafting 23 yeah that's kind of the point is aren't the raiders in a position to draft a quarterback and i saw this the other day this is so i'm curious about this i don't know if anybody else saw this there's so much nfl insider stuff that goes on that it's hard to keep track of who said what, who reported what, but Ian Rappaport said something about the Broncos staying with Jared Stidham because Sean Payton can develop quarterbacks. And I was like, who exactly has Sean Payton developed as a quarterback? Uh, he got drew breeze and then breeze became great in new

Orleans, but like drew breeze was very, very good in San Diego before he got hurt. Uh, and that was one of the reasons that they moved on. They also picked Phillip rivers. Uh, but he clearly was like very talented and a second round draft pick. And then he became great. So that's one guy. And then I'm not, you know, discounting that Sean Payton had a lot to do with it, but that's one guy. I mean, what Ian book, like who else, who else did, who are this long list of quarterbacks that Sean Payton developed? But it made me raise an eyebrow. Cause I thought, wait, are the Broncos like not going to do this? Are they not going to draft a quarterback this year and roll with Jared Stidham because Sean Payton thinks that he is the guy who makes the quarterback?

And never underestimate that. When I read the Seth Wickersham piece that Josh McDaniels thought that he made Tom Brady, I thought, well, anybody could think anything in this world with coaches. Uh, if, if that's, if that's the case, because Tom Brady made Josh McDaniels and not the other way around. And it's probably the case for drew breeze. But if, uh, Denver is trying to put it out there to prepare their fans for, they're not drafting Bo Nix at number 12, that could leave the Vikings open. But Rappaport also said the Raiders are pretty much going to draft a quarterback. So yeah, waiting until 23 just seems so, so risky to me. Bruce says,

this is what KOC was brought here for. He knows what he wants for his system. I'll trust him to go the right direction. For sure. I agree with that. Whoever Kevin O'Connell wants to argue for, I will say that's a good idea, even if I have differing opinions about what they do. If they pick McCarthy with Daniels on the board, I'm going to have a tougher time with it because of Daniels' potential upside, but I also recognize that fit and circumstance are just everything when it comes to the success of a quarterback and you could absolutely see JJ McCarthy becoming a star. So, uh, working directly with O'Connell over the next five years. Yeah. I mean, you could see that working. i would still be very i would still give it an a but i wouldn't give it an a plus put it that way uh any any way in which they come away

with a quarterback is between a b plus and an a plus to me because it's their one and only massive massive need can't leave this draft without it let's see steve says quacey will give away too much compensation to move up and doesn't get enough to move down. Well, you, you don't know. I mean, he didn't give up too much to move up to 23. I thought the trade with Houston was fine. Did anyone have a problem with that? Um, remember his first draft? No, I don't remember what, what happened? When was that? Did he have a draft? I don't, no one's brought it up. No one's brought i don't remember what happened i don't want i don't i'll have to look it up i'll use google it's like it's just like christian ponder where it's like the 2022

draft we can just move forward with our lives here we're in quarterback mode we don't have to bring that up uh it wasn't and and i'll just i'll say this, the trade down, it wasn't the compensation that was the problem. Different people had different opinions on that. Jimmy Johnson's chart didn't, well, not his chart, but the Jimmy Johnson chart didn't like it. Draft analytics charts liked it, whatever. The problem is you picked a guy who didn't work out. That's really what it is.

And you picked a position that is not a premium position that you can find in free agency or that guys develop in regularly. That's really the problem with them moving down. And I didn't like it on draft night when they did it, but I don't think that it was like getting worked over in the exact compensation as much as people made it seem to be. It was more just the guys they use those draft picks on didn't work out. And if they did, it would have looked a lot better. I mean, if they had drafted Christian Watson or something or whoever, I don't remember who was on the draft board, but if they drafted somebody else, but you know, everybody, everybody talks about all the great players. They could have got a 12 as if Jamison Williams has done anything as if Jordan

Davis is a difference maker. He's not, he played like 500 snaps last year. He's not a difference maker. So every, you know, look, this is what makes the draft fun is that we can always go through and say, you should have done this. You should have done that. But if we're using 2022 draft compensation to say that will get screwed in a trade up. I just don't see the connection there because there was a lot of debate over whether that was a fine move or not and really came down to just picking players

who didn't work out. If they had, then it would look a lot better and we'd be fine with it. If Louis Seen had become Josh Metellus, you'd be talking about how awesome that trade was, but he didn't. Could have with his talent, but he didn't. And by the way, in order to trade up to get a quarterback, you are getting screwed for sure.

It's like a housing market where there's not much housing and everybody's getting screwed. And I, having bought a house recently, I know all about this, but that's always going to be the case. When everybody knows you're trading up to get a but that's always going to be the case when everybody knows you're trading up to get a quarterback you're going to overpay this is anybody mad about overpaying if the guy works out nobody uh let's see jj will get paid uh mid-tier quarterback money top tier making 50 plus a year not the same or what do you want to talk about here uh let's see especially for the best player this position totally worth oh we're are you talking about here? Let's see. Especially for the best player, this position is totally worth it. Oh, are we talking about...

Oh, I see what you're talking about. You're talking about Justin Jefferson's contract? Yeah. When we're saying J.J., I'm getting confused by J.J.'s now. We're going to have to work something out here to only call him Justin and call McCarthy J.J. or something like that because I'm getting all confused. When we're talking about Jefferson's contract, it's going to be expensive, but, uh, if your point was that it's,

it's not like paying a quarterback, you're a hundred percent correct. It's not his cap hits will not be what the best quarterbacks will be. And I promise you when this happens, that his cap hits will not be intolerable until like 2026 2027 and at that point they will be able to restructure them and you'll all be fine uh tyler says where would jj mccarthy rank against quarterbacks the previous two draft classes well we really only have to do one draft class because the 2020 2022 draft class was a travesty so he would of course he's a better prospect than kenny pickett kenny pickett was 24 years old and jordan addison just made him i do not think that he's better than so bryce young's hard because i didn't really love bryce young as a prospect thought he was disturbingly small

when I saw him walking around the combine. I was like, okay, that's not like Russell Wilson jacked and super long arms and big hands small. That's just really tiny. But look, he could be great this year. I don't know. We'll find out. As a pure prospect, Bryce Young was considered a better prospect than J.J. McCarthy. Of course, Stroud was, and I would say Anthony Richardson as well. I mean, Richardson did not have the statistics, but tools wise, absolute freak show, like top notch plus character, leadership, all that stuff. And then showed last year, he came out and ran Indianapolis's offense right away. Fit with Shane Steichen. I mean,

just like through the roof. So I don't think he was Anthony Richardson as a prospect. And I also don't think that he's as good as any of the top three as a pure prospect. So I guess that would put him in like eighth place. Uh, but Bryce young was a way better prospect and hasn't worked out. So it doesn't really matter. I mean, it's not like a million miles away. I don't see him as a million miles away from these other guys. But I also have more questions about McCarthy and the high end than I have about some of the other ones. So, you know.