Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - ESPN's Courtney Cronin breaks down wide receivers and breaks out her first draft simulation fo the year

Episode Date: January 20, 2021

Matthew Coller and Courtney Cronin -- or as she's known during draft time Courtney R Draft Scout -- dive first into the receiver position, breaking down why the Vikings need to do a better job addressing the No. 3 spot than they have the last few years and what their options might be. Plus they do a draft simulation and look at the Vikings' potential options at 14th overall. Should they go O-line or defensive line in the first round? Is there a third-round QB available who's interesting? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get Coors Light in the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart, Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. Oh, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, along with ESPN's Courtney Cronin. And Courtney, we have much to get to. This is the season debut of Courtney, our draft scout. And we will get to a draft simulation later on in the show. But I want to start right out with you talking about wide receivers because I wrote about them and I'm selfish like that.

So first of all, you're good. You enjoying your football, your playoffs. I, when I watch games at home and really focus on them, I get more anxious than covering them. I don't, I don't know if this happens to you, but it certainly has to me during this playoffs. Yeah. A lot of the weekends I've been spending on radio at nighttime. Like I just happened to do the 8 PM till midnight game night shift on ESPN radio. So I'll have the game. Like I won't be able to kick back on the couch and, and, you know, have snacks and all of that, but I'll be like on radio it's happening. And it's kind of interesting as I'm watching it being like, like, I may be interested as I'm getting, you know, there's so much going on, like got to hit the break, got to hit your heart out.

Well, are we going to have this guest from the game? We're going to be able to get somebody in. Are we going to play this sound from this coach? And I don't know. It feels like there's a lot more to coordinate with that, but it's actually been kind of cool getting to talk through the games in real time as they've been happening, even though they're teams that I don't cover. But last week was really, you know, I know,

I know there's some people out there who think that these games have been boring just because of the score and, you know, they want shootouts and they want it to look more like bills and, um, Colts from, from the first game of wildcard weekend. Like, sure. Of course. Um, you want that more than, you know, Justin Tucker missing a bunch of field goals in the game last week between, you know, the Bills and the Ravens. But it's definitely an exciting playoffs because, A, we've almost

made it through a full season, which is wild to me. But great matchups coming up that we've been anticipating for a long time. Breeze and, you know, or excuse me, Rodgers and Brady. I'm really excited for the Buffalo Bills game on Sunday afternoon I don't know I feel like I've adopted them almost as my team um probably because there's so much intrigue around them the Minnesota connection everywhere you go they're talking about Stephon Diggs but also like I've become a Josh Allen fan this year like that improvement and just being able to mark where that came from the single season highest uh improvement in QBR ever from 2019 to 2020 is unbelievable um and seeing

how that offense works is really impressive but also I mean that defense was you know that was a Leslie Frazier staple last week so I mean i've enjoyed it it's weird to watch playoff football because it's like every year with us covering the vikings it's one year you're busy until the middle of january or february and then you're off like january 2nd and then you know last year they're in the divisional playoffs and this year then everything kind of came to a crashing halt and then week 17 it's like okay like, okay, what now? But I've really enjoyed it this year. I really have probably more than any other year of actually like watch the playoffs as a quote unquote fan.

I think that maybe the difference is exactly what you mentioned is being able to talk it out during the game, because usually in the press box, you and I are sitting next to each other yelling stuff back and forth. Well, when there's fans yelling stuff back and forth, when there's not fans talking at a regular volume to each other, yelling stuff back and forth. Well, when there's fans yelling stuff back and forth, when there's not fans talking at a regular volume to each other, just about what's going on and, you know, all the different things. And when I'm just sitting on the couch alone, watching it with Twitter, it's a little bit different, but I think that it's been very compelling in the playoffs this year. And clearly Buffalo is the main story and Josh Allen and how they've built

around him and built this entire offense to just be about him. And it sort of reminds me of like the old Houston Oilers that, you know, their whole offense was just Warren moon passing every play. And, and even to some extent, you know, the Vikings when they had all the great wide receivers and just threw it all the time and had all these explosive plays and so forth. And you know, I enjoy watching modern offenses. I enjoy watching coaches get it right.

And I think that that's the best part about watching Buffalo is that their coaches get it right. Like they built their team really well. They built their offense really well. And their defense, I saw a chart the other day about how their defense has just gotten better and better and better and better as the season has gone along. And I think that really speaks to Sean McDermott and his ability to coach because they did not spend a ton of money to keep that defense elite where it was a couple of years ago. They really spent it all on Stefan Diggs and those moves have paid off. But now we've got the extra storyline of Patrick Mahomes and his injury and and then you know of course as you mentioned Tom Brady going up to Lambeau

to play Aaron Rodgers it just doesn't get any better than that so I think it's been great and also I have no regrets about them allowing the extra team into the playoffs I mean just in general I think it's going to be impossible for that seventh seed to ever win the Super Bowl, but I did not hate the way that we got to watch three games in a row on two back-to-back days to start the playoffs. So overall, it's been pretty good, but I know that you've been thinking about this. I've been thinking about this as watching these games is just through the lens of the Vikings. And in part, when we talk about Buffalo, we talk about a bunch of weapons that they have. And I wrote about the wide receivers, you know, the future of the Viking

series that I've been doing for the website. And I guess I want your opinion on how much they have to do and how much you think they will spend in terms of draft capital in terms of cap space to improve that spot because I think we can agree that Chad Beebe is a number three wide receiver is probably not ideal yeah and he's a restricted free agent so it's not like you're in the situation if you want to bring him back it's not going to be like throwing you know the brinks truck at back in the brinks truck to up to him like but you know i'm skeptical because i look at this offense i look at what they want to do and i look at who the potential replacements could be for gary kubiak should he retire i mean we're still waiting it's you know the middle of january past the middle of januaryuary we still don't have any word there but that's where things are trending um i don't know if this team will be any more

aggressive with a wide receiver in free agency than they were last year with the bottom of the barrel type candidates don't expect them to go after you know an alan robinson don't expect them to go after juju um you know nelson aguilar's out there will fuller like this is a two receiver offense they are a run first team they're not going to do more than that like i really don't believe like i as i've mentioned to you and i wrote about this I feel like Kirk Cousins needed a very important warning at Justin Jefferson after he you know eclipsed 1400 receiving yard the section essentially in 14 games at the end of the 2020 season that you have to be patient we're going to be running the ball a lot sometimes the ball's not going to come your way I don't think this franchise has the

mindset that they want to bring another receiver into the mix to create that. Like you mentioned with Buffalo, that modern offense. I mean, like think about how that team has used more than just to find Dave Cole Beasley, John Ross. You know, they have a lot of different receiver looks and it's not like those guys are, you know, finishing the season with like you know 20 catches 30 catches like i mean they're actual parts of this offense that has a pretty good like running back by committee um that they've used i mean granted they didn't run the ball at all the first half of the game last

week uh i don't know why but i mean they didn't change they didn't have to because once they were able to break that game open and that was that was really from the pick six and everything else, they stuck with what was working and what has been working. And that is the Diggs-Allen connection and more than that. But I feel like this is a team that will end up prioritizing defense in free agency, defense in the draft as they should and that they're going to kind of go back to where we were set 2017 2018 um two receiver sets that are that is you have your top two receivers that is for these two receiver sets and then everybody else is kind of in this conglomerate below them i really don't have any faith that they are looking heavily into any receivers.

Certainly if one lands, you know, if they, if they can get a fourth or a fifth rounder that they really like somebody that they could bring in and develop, I mean, sure. But Irv Smith Jr. is also a massive, you know, a massive part of the plan going forward. And we saw how he finished the 2020 season after the injuries that kept him out you know three or four games and kind of when he picked things up and see after you know the Seattle game in week five kind of figured things out because there was so much that was expected of him in year two and yes he didn't meet those expectations but once once in a limited sample size we saw him get going it's like okay this is why they drafted this guy and now I think you're comfortable letting Kyle Rudolph go because you saw the emergence of Irv Smith Jr. certainly what Tyler Conklin brought to the table as a former fifth round pick in all

of that I think they're in a really good spot there to free up some cap space and you know those guys are going to be heavily involved in this passing offense assuming what you have every reason to assume is that they keep those Kubiak principles where tight ends heavily involved in this passing offense assuming what you have every reason to assume is that they keep those Kubiak principles where tight ends get involved in that so the thing about this Kubiak offense though is that it can be run with three wide receivers it's just if you decide to do it or not because we've seen Sean McVay do exactly that in Los Angeles when he was in Washington and they had two great tight ends. They used a lot of two tight end sets, but then when he went to Los Angeles, they had the

three really good wide receivers in 2017. So he went to three wide receivers all the time. And I think that that should be an option, you know, when they interview whoever it's going to be for offensive coordinator, if Gary Kubiak does indeed retire, I mean, you can talk about what do you need to run this offense the way you want to run it, sticking with the core principles of, you know, a lot of the zone runs and the play actions off of those runs. But the free agent class, I think, opens the door to making a change here. And when you look at not only, okay, so the top names are terrific. I mean, Marvin Jones is great. You know, I think Curtis Samuel would be a fantastic fit. You've got Chris Godwin. Also TY Hilton is a veteran who's out there that might want,

you know, to go somewhere else. So there's a lot of, even Corey Davis is a guy that had a successful season with Tennessee playing in a very similar system, but even the second level of guys who are free agents are also pretty good here. I mean, you've got, you know, these are a little farther down the list, but someone like Willie Sneed who people would know Keelan Cole from Jacksonville, Josh Reynolds from Los Angeles, like these guys can all play.

And I wonder if that would be an option for them. Once upon a time, they were looking for a third wide receiver and that sort of just went away and they thought, well, let's see if Treadwell develops when that's not going to work out. And well, we're kind of out of cap space to spend on anyone more than Tajay Sharp or Kendall Wright at one point. And you know, those things didn't work out either. And at some point you wonder if they just have to say, look, it's not only about running three wide receiver sets, which they still do like 35 or 40% of the time. It's also about if anybody gets hurt because they had this year, if anyone got hurt, if Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen got hurt, there was just no backup plan, unless you were going to play Carolina every week, which

was the one game that Adam Thielen missed, unless you were going to play them every week, there was no backup plan whatsoever. And if you have somebody like Rashard Higgins, who plays for the Cleveland Browns. Yeah. I mean, if you have somebody like that, who's just a proven NFL wide receiver at very least, you can kind of fill that gap until that player comes back. But if, if they lost just to Jefferson for four weeks this year, I mean, even played, I was going to say he appeared in four games with Minnesota in 2020. You know how many catches he had in any of those games? None. Yeah. So like, you know, I, I look at like kind of like the overview of his career and they kind of knew

what they were getting into, right? Like when they got him, this is a guy who had a really good rookie season in 2016 41 catches uh on 83 targets which i mean that's hat you're catching half of the passes that were thrown to you not great but that was in 10 games um 522 yards and two touchdowns so you knew that you were getting kind of this like you know average to maybe above average number two number three wide receiver and at the time that he came in we were talking about two things is this somebody who could potentially vie for that number two job to replace stefan diggs and number two is this his chance to kind of jump you know jolt his career back into maybe picking up where it left off in that 2016 season. Because I know he had the injuries in 2019, it limited him to six games, whatever. No, like it

didn't. And it's when you go that cheap and you're paying the veteran minimum for a guy on a one year deal, like you kind of expect that. So if you actually upped it a notch to where you went and got somebody that was already this proven talent not somebody that's looking to resurrect his career in minnesota so to speak but somebody like a chris conley like you mentioned who's been with a couple teams but has you know generated production not somebody that's like i'm using this opportunity to to try to like re, you know, I guess not reevaluate, but like reinvent myself.

Like don't do that. Like don't do that. Because then you have a Kendall Wright who didn't even make the team in 20, in 2018, or you have a Tajay sharp. And obviously the, the treadwell thing and them trying to make him a number three receiver every single year just didn't work out because of obvious reasons. Like it just didn't work out. So I think that if you want to spend that way and yes, this is a team that currently as it stands is like 10 million over the cap,

but as field Yates from ESPN had reported the rollover amount that Minnesota is going to have from 2020 to next year is approximately, I'm reading the list now, approximately 4.5 million in cap space that they can roll over. And obviously the NFL is going to audit all of that with like incentives and credits for cap credits from this year. So that'll be added to 2021. So let's say that that's leaves you then like, you've got to create like five and a half six million well rudolph's cutting kyle rudolph the foreground conclusion at least you and i have on

this is one way to do that um there's plenty of other ways that you can do that to which then at that point i don't think receiver would any in any way shape or form be a top priority like and it shouldn't like it really shouldn't like you should be going after an offensive lineman for once. It's not named Josh Klein, like a quality offensive lineman in free agency. If you look at this, uh, offensive line class and say, eh, no pass, let's try to do it that way. Um, cause there are a couple that are out there, like there's a good, it's a good offensive line class. It's just going to be, can you afford it? And when we talk about finances, I don't think that receiver is going to be one of the top things that they allocate to spend on, but should it? Yeah. There's a case that you can make there because if you're right, like injuries or something you have to

prevent against, um, if they're not playing a bad defense or a bad overall team, like Carolina, how does that work out when Justin Jefferson's the only guy? I also just think that the best chance you can ever give yourself to compete for an NFC championship is simply by being one of the best throwing teams in the NFL. And that would be my case for spending all of your money on a wide receiver. As much as I'm sure people's heads explode

after watching that defense. And I get that. But adding Marvin Jones, for example, to this mix and he'll be expensive and that's hard to do adding Curtis Samuel. I even think about the 2016 Falcons, which I was looking at for a piece for the website last night. And they added Taylor Gabriel, who's not like a big star when he was with Cleveland, but he was playmaker and really, really fast. If you got the ball in his hands, he was great.

And he averaged almost 17 yards of catch for Atlanta in 2016. I just think like there is value to running this same offense and having that guy, Marvin Jones and Taylor Gabriel, not the same player, but Curtis Samuel is kind of like that, like that playmaker. And I think that gives you the best chance. Like if they go out and sign a, let's say a three technique, who's decent at rushing the passer, there's no elite three technique in free agency, or they draft a three technique. That's fine. But if you spend on a situational pass rusher, that's great. That's fine. But does that give you as much in terms of your chances to win as someone like a playmaking wide receiver who could get you 600 or 700 yards and a couple of touchdowns

I don't think so and I also think it makes it more dangerous um for what Justin Jefferson and what Adam Thielen could do I think there's like a domino effect to having one more guy and my evidence would be third and long every time this year where it's like drop back uh let's get sacked because there's double teams or uh let's give it to Tyler Conklin who hey good job against Tampa Bay with a couple of those catches but those aren't dangerous plays when you're throwing it to Tyler Conklin the defense is happy if you're throwing to tight end two or three when you're dropping back on third down and long. And it's just like you continue to kind of take these half measures and bring in this guy, bring in that guy.

He had a few catches for them or whatever. I just think like at some point you need to decide this doesn't really work of kind of spending $8,000 on that position, you know? And that's the thing that I struggle with. It's like, I believe everything you're saying and you know, why can't Irv Smith be that guy on third and third and medium third and long? Why not? Like, I mean, he can, but when that's not your option, where else are you going? Like, I just don't think that they're going to look at this the same way because they've had opportunities to do it in the past. And I'm not trying to be like negative, but I am very skeptical of their draft strategy. And really their pro personnel strategy with how they evaluate free agents and the value that they place on above average to good wide receivers in free agency that are costly. Not somebody you're paying the BS veteran minimum to like,

you're not getting, that's like, you're not getting a quality receiver at that point. Could you luck into it? Like they did with an Aldrick Robinson a few years ago as a guy who was like that four, four, four or five deep threat. Sure. But like, what else did they get out of him outside of like four or five catches or something yeah like four or five touchdowns that year and you know he was a deep threat for kirk a vertical threat cool but like they've tried this before how many times can we talk about the names

that i already mentioned let's not forget michael floyd in 2017 like jordan yes they've done this and it's just like you're gonna keep getting the same result if you keep going back to the same cookie jar and putting your hand in there like you know what's in there um and it's just not your priority like it's so very blatantly obvious that that's not their priority and when you talk about it from like an expected points added um per pass attempt approach like i did i was doing something earlier um about buffalo because of digs and the jefferson now's the time like we all want to look back on the trade and be like all right well who won who lost etc well regular season justin or um josh allen was second in expected points added per pass attempt behind Patrick Mahomes. Why do

you think that was? Cause he not just that he had multiple options to throw to, which certainly helps, but that's a by-product of them placing a humongous emphasis on someone like Stefan Diggs. That helps, but the Vikings just aren't in that situation because they don't pass on early, like in early situations, not just early downs, but like they don't pass a lot early in games. They take a while to get their receivers going. Right. I feel like they're just so stubborn in that sense that that's going to be the, they like the way it works. They like the way it looks,

even though it yielded a seven and nine result by and large this season. And I'm yet, no, I'm not absolving the defense of their blame, but when you have a defense that looks the way it did in 2020, and you're still operating that way offensively, like clearly you need to change a couple of things or, you know, just miraculously expect that your defense is going to be that much better next year, but it's just not their priority. And I don't think that they will end up going that route because they're

going to, they're going to look around and be like, Hey, look at all these playmakers, Dalvin cook, Irv Smith, Jr. The two receivers. That's four players right there. And then of course, like somebody will end up just because they like to name names. I want to throw in Tyler Conklin. They'll throw in CJ ham and be like, okay guys, like let's pump the brakes. They're like good players,

but is it going to change the overall landscape of the offense so but no we're not we're an offensive lineman away that's where the fan base in some respects will switch the uh shift the conversation to i don't know if i necessarily agree with that not saying i don't think that the offensive line needs an upgrade but you know the best teams are the ones that have the versatility of more than just your top two options and more than just one tight end. That's really good. Um, and actually going to those guys, actually utilizing them. And I just don't have the belief that the Vikings will go that route because history has shown us they haven't wanted to invest that way before their own biases against

those types of positions where it's like well we've got two good ones like if we give you know if we had this rotation um so to speak of like you know guys playing if they go 11 personnel with the number three receiver in that like they're fine giving teams quote-unquote different looks even though it's easy to like pick apart um based on bottom of the barrel, less expensive talent. Want to remind you about our friends at SodaStick. If you use the promo code Purple Insider, you can get free shipping at SodaStick.com to get your original Minnesota sports inspired goods. There's so many great designs including chuck foreman spin doctor shirts

skull hats straight cash homie shirts and much much more and if you are a hockey fan without getting going soon or a basketball fan make sure you check out all sorts of great designs their apparel is screen printed here in minnesota on super soft super comfy shirts and hoodies you will love it that's sodastick.com s-o-t-a-s-t-i-c-k.com original minnesota sports inspired goods code purple insider for free shipping and i i think about it um from two things that you were saying i mean one that when you're in the biggest spots i mean that that's where like games are decided is the big plays and where, how many times have we seen Kirk cousins on third and seven, you know, get sacked. And some of that's

on Kirk and some of that's on the offensive line, but also there's a, there's a, you know, a chicken and egg thing that goes on too. Like if someone is wide open right off of the snap, because they beat man coverage that helps Kirk cousins thatins that helps the offensive line I think that the offensive line ranking 27th and pass blocking is not all Dakota Dozier's fault it's some Dakota Dozier's fault for sure because teams attacked him but they had a healthy offensive line with two very good tackles this year and still ranked at the bottom I think that there's responsibility that gets sort of spread out over a lot of different things. And that's one of them is if you don't value that third and fourth wide receiver spot, but a lot of the biggest situations in games require those guys to be on the field,

you're sort of missing something important there. And the other point too, about Justin Jefferson, because I have had people also ask me like, Hey, you're saying they should throw to Jefferson more, but he broke these records and had 1400 yards. It's true. But I looked at his first half targets and this is speaks exactly to your point. I know what you're talking about with PFF. Yeah. Like I've, I've seen it like, because I've always wondered why his receiving yards like doubled or, you know, I looked at Kirk's numbers. I'm sorry to interrupt you on that, but like I looked at Kirk's numbers I'm sorry to interrupt you on

that but I looked at Kirk's numbers for second half passing this season and first half passing this season big difference big difference why do you think that is because they have this idea that they have to like establish the run but that means they have to establish it early and follow those same principles every game who does that affect affect? That affects Adam Thielen. That affects Justin Jefferson. That affects your receiving core. Like why not flip that? Like, I don't know. Like why not? It's a true question. I want to ask, like why not try to like change the script on that?

And if you had nobody to throw to, then I would get it like, all right, well, you've got to run and then hope that you can play action these receivers later I get that they do have people to throw to Justin Jefferson first half targets average 3.25 um you know you know in the first half per game where Devante Adams was almost at five Stefan Diggs was over five Allen Robinson almost at five DeAndre Hopkins almost at five Kelvin Ridley almost at five. DeAndre Hopkins almost at five. Kelvin Ridley almost at five. And Keenan Allen led the league at six.

So Keenan Allen, who is a good wide receiver, is getting double the first half targets. And 66% of Justin Jefferson's total yards came in the second half. I think you want Justin Jefferson driving your success, not hoping for later where you're playing from behind or hoping that you have, like you said, established the run because Jefferson is just unstoppable. I mean, there was that chart that your teammate Seth Walder tweeted out about completion percentage over expectation. And there's Justin Jefferson all the way at the top. If you throw him the ball, it's probably going to be successful. And I think that's a huge part of the overview of this entire season with where the receiver stand is, how are you going to learn from

how you treated them last year? Not only just beyond the, they need a third and fourth wide receiver, but how you kind of viewed their role and what they mean to the offense. And I think that that needs to be tweaked. I also wanted to circle back on something that you mentioned, which was about Kyle Rudolph. I mean, I just don't see a way Kyle Rudolph is back. I also don't kind of see a reason that he would be back aside from just, he's been a Viking for a really long time. Do you disagree with that at all? No, I agree with you um they have to make a financial move not let loyalty get in the way here which loyalty got in the way in 2019 with anthony barr and that's the reason in many respects it's not just kirk cousins it's not just the extension right but like anthony barr has the third highest cap hit on the team next year and he's coming off a pectoral tear and he's due to make $12.3 million next

year. Like, it's just like sometimes moves like that make me like, like, just like shake my head because it's like, think about if you didn't have such blind loyalty to players who you under not utilized in the way that you were expected to when you draft him drafted him in 2014 um and you overpaid for him and now you're paying for it because you know how do you restructure him you know is there any trade market for him if you if you did like eric wilson which they did but i still think that bar is a better run defender well you could

have kept eric wilson if you didn't either have anthony bar or had this situation where it's impossible to like you know if you got rid of him sure like i'm looking at his dead cap right now um or at least like cap savings it'd be like 7.7 million for next year but the dead cap that comes with it 7.8 million like i guess you have to ask ownership do you mind paying for players that are on the roster right now um and how they would handle that but as i'm sorry as it pertains to kyle rudolph so he's got an 8.825 million dollar cap hit they knew this when they you know got him the deal in 2019 before you know the otas had ended and all of that um and he's he's set to make quite a bit so I mean I think that you knew that this was possible the day you drafted Irv Smith Jr. that by 2021

you'd be cutting him and saving 5.1 against the cap like either that or you're or he would outperform what he did um and it's not his fault Kirk didn't look his way the last couple years like he was utilized a lot by um Teddy Bridgewater Sam Bradford Case Keenum like Kyle was a big part of this offense from the time he was drafted um once he rose up the ranks of tight ends to being the number one tight end in this offense from 14 to 17. Well, times have changed and that's just not the way that Kirk cousins looks, even though in the games that he had this year where he did look Kyle Rudolph's way,

perform pretty well at a great faster rating when he was targeting him, but that's just not reality. Like, and you already have Irv Smith, you drafted Irv to replace Kyle Rudolph. Like don't kid yourself, but that's exactly what they did. Different tight end, more dynamic tight end of the passing game. The future is now, and they will probably be moving on from him because financially it makes sense. Now, you know, if they,

would I be shocked if they restructured somehow and kept him around? Like, yes, because at that point it's just like, stop with the loyalty thing yes he has meant so much to this franchise and to this fan base in this community but financially you don't have you don't have the resources for that like that that that's just silliness but um i do think that they are in a good spot with what they have at the tight end position what remains for them going forward um yeah I totally agree that if this was a different situation where Kirk Cousins actually loved Kyle Rudolph and threw to him all the time and got his seven to 10 yards that every other quarterback took for free by throwing to Kyle Rudolph, I would get it if they wanted to restructure, but he just doesn't.

And in hindsight, now, at the time that they signed Rudolph, we didn't know that Irv Smith was good. So we all kind of went like, Oh, all right, well, I guess you kind of had to do it. But in hindsight, cousins and Rudolph were such a bad fit for each other because Rudolph isn't open, open. He's not wide open. He's not running free. He doesn't have a step on anybody. He's a guy that you kind of have to just trust and believe that he's going to catch it. And Sam Bradford did Kirk cousins does not. And in the total hindsight, 2020, not a first guess, but a second guess, it would have been better to just let them walk instead of spending the cap space that they did because that position had been valuable for Kirk cousinsousins when they had fast tight ends like Jordan Reed in Washington, but not anymore. And it'll be valuable maybe again

with Irv Smith. At least I think the second half of the season was evidence of that with Irv Smith, because he can create separation because he is faster than a lot of linebackers, but that's not the case for Kyle Rudolph. I wanted to say one more thing before we get to Courtney, our draft scout, doing some draft simming, that the idea that they're one lineman away and look, I love analyzing offensive line play. And I totally believe any one of you that says that the offensive line being great at pass protection is the key to getting the most out of Kirk Cousins. I totally agree. But the Vikings had 430 points that they scored last year. The top team in the league scored 509. The top five, if you want to get in the top five, it was 482.

So you need to produce 50 more points than you did this year. How will you do it? I mean, will an offensive lineman be worth 52 points? No. Will changing the philosophy to help your offensive line as a whole help? Yes. Could a wide receiver three be worth some of that, a good chunk of that? Yes.

I don't think just, hey, add one more offensive lineman. You get 52 more points and you're in the top five and scoring. And by the way, once again, here we are green Bay, the number one team in scoring Buffalo, number two, Tampa Bay, number three. Is anybody, the only reason Kansas city is number six is because they didn't play any starters in week 17. I'm just, you know, it's always this way. So anyway let's move on to the draft sim, which I was keeping this in mind when draft simming. So you and I both did three round draft sims on PFF. If you go to pff.com and use their mock draft simulator, I'm also going to do another one with someone from PFF later in the

week. So that's going to be fun. Tell me about how yours played out early in the first round leading up to the Vikings. So like I wanted to do my first Courtney, our draft scout, like kind of ease into it. I didn't want to go crazy. I didn't want to start making trades because I do like PFF simulator that I was able to, you know, to, to, to do it in a way that you can, you can propose trades, you can move stuff around, like you can get kind of freaky with it if you want to. Um, and I enjoyed that, but I decided to, it's my inaugural one for the 2021 off season. I decided that I wanted to try to play it a little bit safer and look at, all right, well, what is this team's biggest needs? And yes, I'm factoring in that they could do certain things in free agency. You know, that's, that's,

you know, possible, but as I'm looking at the team right now, they don't have a lot of money. So what's going to happen, you know, next year or, you know, once league year hits in March, well, like my top priority, if I'm the Minnesota Vikings, looking at the free agent board and what's out there is going to be alignment of sorts because you're not going to, you're not, this is once again, we knew this, but just bracing people, this is not going to be a sexy free agency for them. Barring some sort of bizarro world where Kirk cousins gets traded because of the quarterback movement that's happening.

And if you have wild Deshaun Watson dreams and thinking that somehow that could happen, I am just throwing the bait out there. I am not expecting anybody to bite on it, but just like if something crazy happened, that would be the catalyst for something crazy happening. So they don't have a lot of money to spend they're gonna let guys walk probably in eric wilson certainly in anthony harris um guys that are pending free agents so with that money that they do have you know i'm thinking offensive linemen probably a guard and then defensive interior um so that's where i thought about for free agency but then when i went through with my draft strategy i was like well those are all still really big needs let me see how the board

falls um and it kind of actually fell almost in the order of what i presented to you and i think that the vikings are going to have to decide because you're not going to do both offensive linemen and tackle defensive tackle in free agency you're not so the way I think it will work out is one one or the other and then one or the other whichever one they don't do in free agency they'll do in the draft which is kind of like almost the opposite of my draft strategy because I kind of went I got a bunch um because the way that the board fell but I like my strategy for now it's it's more on the conservative approach but I'm addressing needs that are immediate will that help you

necessarily in 2021 yes and no um because I went trench heavy like I went with offensive and defensive linemen um because I found some good ones but just given how bad this team was in multiple respects with their pass rush, I felt it was necessary. I think it's actually a really interesting idea that we should do all the time as we go forward is if this happens, then here's how you draft. So I, this is like a general draft SIM for you, but there's all sorts of situations that are going to determine how they draft. Like if they drafted today, it might be a lot different than if they were making

up their draft board on April, whatever, in terms of what they actually need going forward based on their free agency. So that's, that's interesting that you sort of took that approach that, Hey, they're probably going to load up on these things in free agency, but I'm drafting them anyway, which, which does, I think makes a lot of sense, but that's just, that's a mental out loud note to, as we go forward, let's do these all situationally and make it more fun, but okay. So, so how did it play out when you got to 14? So when I got to 14 and I, I will give Pff a lot of credit I really like the functionality of this um you know this draft board yeah and how it falls and just how quickly it works so 14 I got quitty pay which if you've seen some people already starting to do mock drafts um you know he's the name that

at that point as a top 15 draft pick like should be there um ed rusher out of michigan you know high high ceiling high reward you bring him in you have daniel hunter assuming everything's fine he comes back everything's great doesn't want to leave whatever um which you would hope to know by the draft so you bring him in and he automatically is competing with the Fadio Dennebo to start at the opposite side at right defensive end. So I like the pick it to me, it's it addresses one of your biggest needs because this is a team that finished with, you know, franchise low 23 sacks. They got no production out of their ends this year outside of unique and

Gawkwayway but you've got to be able to address that you need a true power pass rusher and you need somebody that's you know in every down pass rusher in that position yeah one thing i love about the pff mock draft simulator is that you can click on it and it'll tell you a little bit about the guy it'll give you some grades absolutely that's great yeah it's really helpful so, it's really helpful. So I will read you Quitty Pays. It says pay as everything you could want physically to be an every down problem in the NFL in a good way, I assume. Well, he never put it all together in Michigan.

He's shown he could take to coaching and make strides every year, which that sounds like Vikings-y. Like this guy has the physical skills. Now get him the coaching. That seems like something that would be very attractive to the Vikings yeah I'm all for it I think that given where they've drafted edge rushers the last few years and granted it's the way that their priorities fell with needing to go after corners needing to go after offensive linemen hire all of that you know don't run into another jaleel johnson another um jalen holmes jalen holmes or you know those type of situations where you're taking a fourth rounder and expecting him

to you know commit can you know contribute right away maybe it happens with dj want him um he's a fourth round pick they really liked him all of of the Daniel Hunter comparisons simply based on the fact that he has long arms and you know, all that. It's a matter of model versus outlier to me. Like Daniel Hunter is not a model. He's an outlier. And the same with Stefan Diggs, like, Oh, let's draft a high, highly competitive guy out of wherever that we like in the fifth round, like for a receiver.

Okay. I mean, the odds of it turning out to be Stefan Diggs are almost zero. I mean, you just, you basically have to admit it was an outlier and congratulations on drafting him. A lot of luck that goes into it, sure. Right. Don't keep trying to do that and hoping that that's the answer at that position. Exactly.

Don't keep trying to like take a fourth round pick defensive end and expect him that he's all of us. Yes. Everson Griffin was a fourth round pick for reasons that were not about talent. Like let's be, let's keep it 100 on that. Like you're not just going to be able to draft and develop and expect that it's all going to work out that way. Um, so use high draft capital if you want somebody to contribute early. So I'll tell you how mine played out, what I did at 14. I took Christian Derisaw, who is an offensive lineman from Virginia Tech. And what was on my mind is filling up the defense with free agency, like taking that approach of let's find some veterans and get two or three guys

on the defensive line who are proven and fill this tackle position because I think it's possible. And this is why you have to sort of explain your scenario of what you think happens that they just straight up move on from Riley reef. And so now you've got an open left tackle position. You have a guy in Christian Derrissaw who is humongous and who is you know played really really well second highest graded uh power five tackle had a huge breakout season um this year so like looking for a guy who produced at a very high level and is a large human being and that's the best I could do but this

tackle draft is good at the top so I thought well, well, if you're going to get the defense filled out by veterans, then fill that left tackle spot. And what you hope is then you have a franchise left tackle, a center who's going to be there a long time, a right guard in Cleveland is going to be there a long time. And then Brian O'Neill, and then you've got a very athletic and set and young offensive line that you can go forward. So even though I was just a few minutes ago saying that an offensive lineman doesn't make for 52 points, you also need to manage your money here. Left tackle is a very expensive position. So if you have a guy on rookie contract at left tackle, that's gold to you when you have a big

quarterback contract. So that's what I was thinking with Christian Daris. That's fair. And I mean, it's all depends on what they want to do with Riley reef. And if they really think that Ezra Cleveland is better at right guard, cause you'd be drafting another tackle when didn't know what you did last year. Like, isn't that what Ezra Cleveland projected as? I don't know. And that's what I know, right? We don't know what they think of Ezra Cleveland for future tackle, but the fact that they started them right from guard from day one makes me think that they don't see that yeah and that's that'd be

interesting I mean like when I think of like finances and potential earnings that you make is it left tackle versus guard like I don't know if he'd ever have like a grievance he could file with like the league I thought about this because like he came in thinking probably he was going to be a left tackle and if they never even like let came in thinking probably he was going to be a left tackle and if they never even like let him try it like that's going to be a thing but it's going to depend what they do with riley reef like do they i honestly think that they could try to extend reef out turn his signing vote or uh base salary into a signing bonus for 2021 spread the cap out he played well last year do they want to keep doing this like you know they're not going

to get him restructured not again that's not going to happen so uh especially after the year he had he was pretty good so do you want to be see i think that like keeping reef even though i agree with how well he played is sort of the short-sighted kind of like well for 2021 we'll be set there and let's do a thing with the cap to kind of push it down the road and like well you've sort of been doing that a lot and you know it hasn't helped you get in a great position so yeah that's why that's why i like the idea of a tackle here now the third round how did you approach the third round so third round i decided i was gonna stay with defense like on you know my priority is in my mind one or the other so i guess this case the other would be that they would have drafted um or they would have spent their focus on

in the draft on defensive pieces because they would have spent in free agency which you can literally flip-flop that because you could say hey defense doesn't need any more damn youth like uh it needs to you know needs pieces that are gonna short up so maybe next draft i will do that but in this one at least i'm thinking that they're spending offensively in free agency i went with marvin wilson defensive uh tackle out of florida state with my 78th overall pick because remember they don't have a second round pick as it stands because that was traded in the in Gawkway trade this has been brought up one of the ones that's uh you know recouped from from all of that the reason like and there were a couple other names that I just I looked over and I wanted to bring up for you know to point out with context so

Tommy Togai I think his name is the, the defensive tackle from Ohio state. So he declared early, had a great year this year. And yes, Marvin Wilson's coming off of a leg injury that kept him out the last couple of games. And he had a good season like, and he's probably projecting better as like a rotational defensive tackle well that three technique spot they rotate guys anyways um i want somebody who's not just a run defender i need they need an interior push like when i was looking up to guys um you know

his draft like you know what's been written about him through draft analysts all of that like this looks like your prototypical run stuffer who is going to really struggle at the next level to generate any sort of interior push um that's not what they need i'm trying not to make history repeat itself here so i think that if you have somebody there in a position that ever since 2019 they've been rotating guys to begin with. High ceiling for this player. Potentially somebody who could take over that job on playing most every single down. It's certainly not just going in on third down for pass rush.

I think you're in a good spot because he's also pretty complete. He's got a lot of power, good anchor, a lot of things that you would like to see in a young prospect how does that translate to the nfl it's gonna depend on how you're playing him but this was your um this was your courtney our draft scout moment by the way you just like when you started talking about anchor you just took that next step to like you were ramping up and then okay now you are officially in courtney our draft scout mode. I mean, it's been a moment, but she's had some time to kind of get in the right mindset. And I look at like my colleague, Kevin Seifert,

put a list of the top 50 free agents out there, you know, who they might go after. And, you know, the, the ones that at least I think of like Larry Ogunjobi from the Cleveland Browns, like and you know the the ones that at least i think of like larry ogan jobe from the cleveland browns yep um like you know he can play three technique in a four three um he's not a nose tackle which is good because they've got one his name's michael pierce um so but how expensive could that potentially be for them would they have all the money in free agency to spend on that like if they went and did that then my pick would have been completely different but there's just not a lot out there a lot more edge rushers that are about to hit free agency and there are defensive tackles

dalvin tomlinson's one um endomic and sue's one remember the endomic and sue thing from 2019 when he was like up in minnesota like snowmobiling everybody's like oh my god he's signing like nope um and i i mean what would he want like another like one year deal that doesn't solve anything they did that two years ago three seasons ago now it didn't solve anything so that's what i went with my second uh of my three picks today. All right, everybody, the Superbowl is coming up and sure. We'll all be watching the game, but the best way to celebrate the biggest day in football is to bet on the game. And we want to let you know about a great resource for sports betters.

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smarter today so i went sexy here i picked jamie newman who is a quarterback while he played at wake forest then was going to transfer to georgia but he opted out and i'm going to have more on jamie newman with anthony trash from PFF in a podcast later in the week. But I love this idea because Jamie Newman opts out so we don't get to see him play for Georgia in a top offense. But this is a big arm quarterback with a lot of big time throws and athleticism that I think the NFL is going to be very hesitant to draft because he didn't play this year and they got a sample on everybody else. But I love the idea of only spending a third on a quarterback that has a high ceiling and then waiting and maybe even waiting two years. If you spend a third on them, you don't have to feel pressure when you draft one in the first round. It's like, when

are you going to do it? When are you going to put them in? Is he going to play? What's the deal? But if it's a third rounder and he sits for two years and he has that high ceiling, that gives you a chance. And I just think it's a, it's a draft value pick. And of course, PFF loves these. They gave me an a plus for that pick. They love when you pick a quarterback in the third, even though, you know, the third is kind of the cutoff too. So like if you're drafted fourth and beyond, good luck to you. But we have seen some third rounders succeed and some well

yeah fourth i guess fifth round is the cutoff there um but um yeah i i like that idea if in really only for him there isn't anybody else that i like it's just when a guy drops for a reason that isn't about him as a prospect it's just kind of outside stuff i'm always interested yeah and i think that they should draft a quarterback this draft like in other draft sims I will do over the next couple months I will certainly be taking one because I'm thinking future and I'm thinking beyond Kirk Cousins and not any wild trades I'm thinking that he's certainly here this year but what do you do this is our next week podcast but I can't wait um but like what happens you know unless he somehow wins you a

super bowl these next two years are you going to keep extending him are you going to keep doing this because at some point with that cap hit the way it gets up at the end of this extension um how quickly it escalates just the way they structured it you've got to be starting to think about the future yeah and and when you think about the future it's not just with somebody with like you know going into their last season like he still has some time under uh on his contract here in minnesota you want somebody to be drafted and developed under that so you're not just throwing somebody in being like well we had to move on from this guy we had to move on from kirk this now it's yours like without really any sort of real preparation so i like it i think drafting a quarterback is always i think you should do it every year honestly i think you should do it every

year and i'm not just saying a throwaway pick on a nate stanley like use real draft capital if you have an opportunity to draft a quarterback who cares like draft it because eventually it could be trade bait for you and that's great because that is a position that you need and everybody needs. And if you have an extra, it doesn't hurt you. And was it better to draft Alexander Madison? Like would be another question. You know, when you go through the guys that you drafted in the third and fourth round, like what was it better to sometimes they turn into Stefan digs. I get it.

But like, was it better to draft a running back or a guy who potentially could have surprised you or someone with a high ceiling or something like that? I mean, I, it probably wasn't, I like Alexander Madison, but they don't use him. And so you drafted something that you didn't need in the third round to quote, replace Latavius Murray, and then you never use them. So anyway, well, your last pick in uh anyway well your last pick in the third my last pick in the third is an offensive lineman I went with Ben Cleveland he's a guard from Georgia it's not a great pick I will I you know it's a it's an above average pick two guys named Cleveland

on the same offensive line I know I think it can just be like somebody you got to come up with a nickname I mean hell the coach is named Rico like so they can come up with a nickname i mean hell the coach's name's rico like so they can come up with some nickname for him um so he was he wasn't a full-time starter um until at right guard until his you know final year at georgia so the way that i'm doing this is i picked this one thinking that riley reef is actually on the team next year i really do um so i'm not thinking about moving cleveland over to left tackle i'm thinking that potentially you're moving somebody to left guard cleveland never played right guard in his life and he fared pretty well in nine starts there can you move him to left guard potentially i mean i guess the footwork would be in the brain thinking would be somewhat different or somewhat more aligned to eventually if he's going to take over at left tackle

but you need to shore up the interior you need to be able to not have 20 sacks given up between your left to right guard um a lot of that yes was Dakota Dozier yes a lot of that was Drew Samia but this has gotta it's gotta be fixed somehow and yeah some people are gonna criticize that pick and be like well Samia was a fourth round pick and they were anticipating he'd be the greatest thing ever he ran his own blocking scheme at Oklahoma well yeah sometimes sometimes you miss on it it's not an exact science but you know if they're not if they're gonna you know this is this was my first draft sim I went with need sort of based on what they did in free agency, but this could also just be the overall need.

And maybe you do get somebody else that is playing guard. And then you can, you know, if you, let's say here's a scenario, let's say they sign a guard in free agency and you still keep things the way that they are. Well, this is somebody that can take over for Ezra Cleveland when he eventually moves over to left tackle in 2022. And then this guy can play it right guard. I think just in general, picking an offensive lineman with one of these third round picks, if you keep Riley reef, just makes a lot of sense. I mean, um, they need to keep investing in the offensive line. If you get someone who's averaging free agency or even a little below average to fill a spot, you need to still keep looking for guys who are cheap. And the third rounder could potentially be cheap. And if you hit on one of those guys,

new England hit on a sixth rounder at guard. I mean, that's like just finding gold. That means four years of about as cheap as you could possibly get for great production. I decided to go with Quincy Roach, who is a pass rusher from Miami. He was the fourth highest graded edge rusher by PFF in 2019. This year he was okay. The thing is he doesn't fit like the specs for the Vikings. He's only six foot three, but to me, just production is over everything when it comes to these college rushers. So even if he's like not the perfect shape for them, if the guy gets after the passer,

then go for it. I mean, they've just, they've tried this thing where they draft guys who aren't productive and you know, aside from Hunter, like how's it working out for you? So I'm, I'm sure he's not the perfect fit for what they want, but in the third round, you got to look for guys who maybe aren't the perfect body shape because not every single player in the nfl who succeeds is daniel hunter's size and length and everything else so i you know the cloning players thing that spielman has mentioned sometimes i kind of go is that a good idea um so anyway um i i love our first draft sims because they were very different from each other. Like you went with the defense first, I drafted the quarterback in the third.

So I think this was a very successful first draft Sim and Courtney, many more to come. I mean, this is an every week thing from here on out. So I hope that you all are ready. I hope that you all have gotten in the mindset that we are already on the 2021. We're on to April, essentially like gear up for this free agency like i told you it's not going to be a big splash it's not going to be sexy for other teams it will be i'm actually really excited about this year's quarterback group because remember how fun last year was and trying to figure out where teddy was going to go. And obviously Brady, Phillip rivers and all of that. Now it's like, Ooh, all these guys got to force a trade.

Are we going to see Carson Wentz get his butt out of Philadelphia or Sean Watson going to calm down and be like, okay, you guys got me. Eric B enemy only after you like screwed that up nearly who knows, but you know, I'm just, I'm just trying to taper some expectations with free agency because the vikings again are going to be on the outside looking in most likely but drafting and draft sims with this many draft picks it's it's a party every week i don't i don't know where else you'd want to be so we'll come up with a new scenario for next week and i'm going to make up some fake

trades and have you analyze them so everyone can look forward to that so i appreciate your time as always court, we'll talk again soon.