Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - ESPN's Courtney Cronin gives us the chances Caleb Williams ends up elite

Episode Date: November 21, 2024

Matthew Coller and ESPN's Courtney Cronin talk about what it's been like for her covering the Bears this year and what Caleb Williams's chances are of working out Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to a very special episode of Purple Insider. You've waited for it. You've begged for it. ESPN's Courtney Cronin returns to discuss Vikings and Chicago Bears, which is always a set of normal football games that just go off. I don't remember them very well. Nothing ever really happens. And they just play the football game and we all move on. Courtney, how are you?

I'm good, but let me tell you, I'm ill prepared for this podcast because I just looked around. I don't have my piece of paper next to me. And you know why I need my piece of paper. Everybody listening right now knows why I need my piece of paper because you're going to ask me to do a pie chart at some point and i've got two phones i've got two calculators maybe that'll make me go like twice as fast but it's gonna end in an utter disaster like it always

does but that's that's that's why the people listen um thank you for having me maybe i could talk you through it a little bit we'll give you you a little assistance. No, you always stress me out. Like you do the stupid song and you stress me out and it doesn't make me feel any better when I'm trying to put my calculations in order. And it's literally the worst thing when you talk me through it. Like it's not, it doesn't help.

It actually makes it worse. So I guess that's what we're in for today. Maybe I'll have to play some calming music. I have in my system now I can do that. Hold on. Let me see if I can do this. I feel like I might like vibe out to the music and forget my calculations altogether. Yeah, that could happen. I do have a pie chart prepared for you, but we'll have to build up to that. We'll get the wheels turning first. What I want to know from you is just what it's like been covering the Chicago Bears this year, because I feel like I can sense your exhaustion for this football team.

You know, it started so early. Because remember, they had the Hall of Fame game. So they reported to training camp on July 19th. I reported to training camp July 19th. And we've been sprinting ever since. And of course, you know, the expectations coming in with the number one overall pick, with a whole new set of receivers,

with upgraded talent all around him. And what the Bears thought was an upgrade at offensive coordinator, all of that quickly dissipated when the regular season started. But for the love of God, it was six weeks every single day. The Bears were the hottest story in the off season. Everybody wanted to see, would this really be the place where the number one overall pick was in the best situation of any quarterback coming in in the last 30 years? And you quickly find that that did not meet reality. So the highs of the preseason met with, you know, the roller coaster of the regular season. He throws for 93 yards his first game. Everyone wonders if the sky is falling or if it's just a really good defense

that they can lean on to help Kayla Williams through these early season tumultuous times. And then, you know, you've got players asking for coaches to coach them harder. Like I can tell you where the Philadelphia 76ers are going right now because I've seen this. I saw this play out for two months here in Chicago. So the team meeting that was held the other night, players telling coaches to coach us harder, someone's getting

fired soon. Just letting you know that. If you are a Philadelphia 76ers fan listening to this podcast, you're welcome. But it's just been, I mean, the last four games and the losing streak and the offense taking a step back, Caleb Williams looking like he's regressing and then seeing some positive signs this past week in a loss to Green Bay that was a devastating loss. Like another last-second loss, but there's some sort of positive silver lining in it. It just makes it – I guess like just chaos follows me wherever I go in the NFL. Like there's no normal season.

I don't know if I've had a normal season, maybe ever truly, maybe ever, maybe 2022, because we knew they were going to be terrible. Cause they were set up. The bears were set up to be terrible. But other than that, um, just another walk in the park in my chaotic life over here. Yeah, it really does. You went from the 2021 Vikings over there now for this. So it probably is something to do with you. But what I try to do in my brain sometimes is change the situation a little bit to see if I can get some clarity on the situation. And I was thinking about if the Chicago Bears were not in Chicago and how different it might be if they were in Jacksonville and just totally out of the limelight, not in one of the biggest markets, not in one of those places that the get-ups of the world like to focus a lot on, then I wonder if we would have viewed this the same as the sky is falling,

they're collapsing into the lake, or if it would have been looked at from the outside of like oh well okay obviously the number one pick is going to be a source of intrigue but you know top quarterbacks they bounce up and down in their first year and and things like that i wonder if the oc would have been fired in another place because the reactions are just so strong to every single game they are here uh but in chicago when you have been told that this is the great hope has arrived. Finally, your 59 years of bad quarterback play since Sid Luckman or how many of you

might be 70, 70 years of bad quarterback play. They're over. This is the guy. And he still very well could be the guy but they wanted the guy right away this is the greatest situation any first overall pick has ever fallen into and I think that a lot of that has put the pressure on them to react the way that they have it yeah like it's DEFCON one every single day here. And it's been that way since the start of the season.

Now, is it because everything was built up and the belief was built up by prominent NFL voices who were talking about this every single day since April? Yeah. I do think it's a little irresponsible that we, that some people didn't take everything into account. Like first and foremost, the offensive line will, you know, until,

until they've truly poor resources into the most important position on the team outside of quarterback, knowing that like that was kind of the downfall for Justin Fields or like a big part of it, because I think his play leveled off at a certain point to where there's, that's not an NFL starter by and large. And I know there are a lot of Bears fans who like to get mad at me every single time I say that. The league told you what they thought about Justin Fields when the Bears were able to get a conditional sixth for him. So you can, we can

leave that there, but you know, on paper, everything looked good, except for the fact that they had, you know, a center who the Los Angeles Rams were like, OK, that's cool. Like, bye. See you later. Go hit free agency. Usually that doesn't happen. He was a backup who ended up working his way into a starter's role in L.A. Then Ryan Bates, who Ryan Poles, the general manager in Chicago, seems to have like a really strong affinity for, because he tried to get him as a restricted free agent when he was with Buffalo in 2022. That didn't happen. Went after him again. This is somebody who was benched last year. And he becomes one of your, you know, competition for a starting spot.

You have a right guard who you way overpaid for and saw, should have seen every freaking red flag for who's off the roster before week 11 um not even like to a trade you just are like we're done you got you no longer collecting checks and being you know lazy as a as a backup after he was benched early in the season like i say all this to say i think people left out some important context when they were calling this the best situation a quarterback's ever walked into, not factoring in a pretty weak link for this team and also taking a look at the offensive coordinator. Was he that much of an upgrade over Luke Getzey?

Turns out the answer was no, but you could have seen that if you looked at like just where Seattle's offense is ranked the last two seasons compared to the bears. So those are two things that became a, you know, a boiling point here in Chicago and the noise gets so loud that if the bears didn't do anything, if Matt Eberflus didn't take 48 hours too long to fire Shane Waldron, I mean, it probably weeks too long to do it, but I don't know what the conversation would be today. I feel like it would be like the, you know, the gates of hell with people with pitchforks, just like wondering why they're wasting the best year, you know, wasting the first year of Caleb Williams and then setting the clock back even further to where next year.

If you don't get the growth out of him that you want to see this year, next year becomes like his rookie season. Like that's the same cycle that they've been on for decades now. And it's unfortunate because this was supposed to be the year they break the cycle. And I think what irritates Bears fans the most is that it feels like it's the same thing playing out over and over again, knowing that Matt Eberflus right now with a four and six record, probably not going to get that much better, is probably getting fired at the end of the year. So what do you do? You're taking a quarterback that was not drafted by the head coaching staff that's about to inherit him and trying to make that marriage work. It might work because Caleb Williams was the number one overall pick, has a lot of talent,

and is a better quarterback than the last couple first rounders that they've had here in Chicago. So there shouldn't be as much of a question there, but it's still the same cycle. And it's frustrating because there doesn't need to be this cycle when they could have made the decision to clean the deck completely in the off season, and they didn't. Another part of it is that it was overlooked some of the shortcomings of Caleb Williams. One of the things was that he didn't really deal all that well when he was with USC, when

things went sideways for that team last year, he struggled with that and he didn't really deal all that well with pressure and not just the pressure of playing, but the pressure of actual people running at you and the penchant to scramble, not knowing kind of how long to hang in the pocket being a little loose with the football things like that which doesn't mean that i wouldn't have picked him number one every single person would anyone who claims differently uh maybe there was a few drake may people i think nate tice was a drake may guy but there wasn't many people who were taking anyone over caleb williams but i also think that when someone gets that, that this guy is like the next

Mahomes or he's the best prospect since Andrew Luck, the expectation is that he will just be an NFL quarterback when he comes in. And you have to remember that he's only like six feet tall. Maybe he's not quite six feet tall and he's going to have to play a certain way that that is different from what he did in college which will have bumps along the way and another thing I think about too is that you're a Hail Mary away you're a blocked field goal away from being six and four and the Bears have a positive point differential and this is a Bears Vikings point the Vikings cannot take this team as being unserious because there's so much drama around them.

They have scored more points than their opponents this year. And if you're 6-4, probably everyone's like, oh, this is great. This is going really well for Caleb Williams in his first year. It's amazing how those small things, one guy hyping up the crowd rather than paying attention to where the football was. And even then, if the ball instead of bounces into the guy's hands, it just bounces a little to the left and hits the ground. It's like a different feeling season for the Chicago Bears.

And I think what adds like insult to injury and all of that is that there were moments to make those outcomes. Like those, like I, we were talking with Jalen Johnson after the game and I asked him just about like the nature of these losses. He says, yeah, it's kind of comical. It's kind of comical that it comes down to because it's such Murphy's law that like anything that can go wrong will, if the bears don't allow Jade and Daniels who has an injured,

he has a ribs injury. The guy completed a 61 yard pass earlier in the game at Terry McLaurin. And you're like, what ribs injury? But the guy was injured, and you let him pick up 13 yards. You got them in the field goal range, and then the head coach afterwards said, oh, that play didn't matter. It's all about defending the last play. Bad answer.

Then you have another chance when you have a kicker who is perfect inside 40, and his percentage drops after you get beyond 40 yards and he's kicking from the left hash instead of the right hash, you had a chance to run one or two final plays to get closer to the end zone. Last I checked, the closer you get to the end zone, it's easier to score. No matter what it is, kicking, running the ball or throwing the ball. It's just like maddening that these, and that compounds everything where fans see and the organization sees you were that close, but there was a self-inflicted decision that caused you to lose the game. And that's why those losses, I think sting more than, than others. And certainly just the nature of a last second loss, two of them in

four weeks, then two games where you couldn't even get off the mat. I mean, that Arizona game was awful. I don't know if I've ever seen any more flat football team. And I was on the sideline for that game because I was doing sideline for ESPN radio. So I was, I mean, I basically lived at the injury tent that day because they just had like one guy after the other season after in season ending injury after season ending injury go through there and then it was like what what's wrong with this team like that's the moment I knew that the season was probably teetering on the edge because they were four and three going into that game and they became 500 that's my when I had my gut feeling of this is this is going off the rails like it has no chance

to really get back on the rails and that's that's a weird spot to be in for a team that was four and two and feeling pretty good about itself going into a week seven by to just get slapped in the face with reality of you are not that close even if it is coming down to a hail mary or coming down to um you know a field goal attempt at the end of the game and the Maddie Berflus record of five and 17 and one score game since 2022, you're not that close because good teams don't let those things deter them. And the bears just kind of succumb to it is what I've learned about this team this year. Yeah. I think that from,

at least from trying to organize through the chaos or sort through all the chaos, the loss to the Patriots feels to me like it's much worse than the losses at the end of other games, because that stuff is so random as we saw from the 2022 Vikings, that stuff is extremely random and sometimes it gives and sometimes it takes away and it feels like it's taking away because the Packers should have been called for pushing a guy and slamming into the long snapper. Well done by the Packers as a

strategy. Just break all the rules. What does it matter? He's probably going to make the field goal anyway, but I look at those as I see so much attention to, well, Ibraflus did this and he did that and everything else. And he does not really know how to navigate through it at the podium, which you and I both for a long time also covered a coach that did not know how to navigate through it. And a lot of those coaches, I know he's got a beard and he did his hair and everything, but a lot of coaches, I don't think put quite enough emphasis on how to have crisis management in front of the world. And Zimmer never realized he was talking to the whole world. He was talking at the podium to his whole team, to the whole fan base, to the owners,

and he never recognized that. And then just destroyed Kellen Mond for no reason. Right. So, but, and it feels like Eberflues though, he's not doing it in the jerky fashion that Mike Zimmer did. He still has problems with that leadership element as well. Yeah. And it's like the message is falling so flat.

And when you have players and it's a veteran led team, yes, you have a 23 year old quarterback, but you have a lot of guys who have given a lot of years to the NFL, whether it's, you know, going all the way up to Mercedes Lewis, who's playing a lot. I mean, he's not catching a lot of passes anymore, but he didn't really do that in Jacksonville and with the Packers anyways, like he's still playing a lot at 40 and there's Keenan Allen, there's Jalen Johnson, there's DJ Moore, guys who have been around the league for a very long time

who are not okay with this and voicing, like taking credence in the fact that they're vets being like, yeah, no, this is not, this is not the way it needs to be. So when that happens, it makes, it gives you like a peek behind the curtain of everything isn't right. Matt Eberflusen, what he's saying, oh, we just need to stick together. We need to quiet the storm and all the outside noise. It's not outside noise when it's coming from inside the walls of Palace Hall. That's what I've never really understood here. The issues that people are talking about publicly are stuff that's seeping out of the privacy of your team's facility and that's an

issue but i did you watch eberflus's press conference on wednesday i did not go back and watch it and tell me what you think because the the dejection in his voice and just hearing because usually like he you know coaches have to be a little delulu like they have to flush it and act like everything's fine and that like you didn't just have like a devastating loss 72 hours ago and that yep kind of the on the Cincinnati but like a lot of guys are a little bit more positive about that now instead of how Belichick went about that but even yesterday I could just like there was a different tone that felt like it was expressing kind of where the team is right now, that this is really freaking hard and we're not going to be able to dig out of this hole. That's what I got from Ibra Flues at the podium yesterday. I know I wasn't the only one,

but just hearing how defeated he sounded. And yeah, like he talked about some injuries that they had. He talked about Caleb Williams, why the Vikings are so good at at blitzing quarterbacks like you know and why Brian Flores is such a great defense etc etc like all the normal things but just the way it was being delivered they've gone through crisis before under Matt Eberflues remember all the mid-season like weird there's a firing and there was a resignation last year. Even then I felt like, and he didn't handle those things well. He didn't handle the Chase Claypool situation. Well, he didn't handle a situation well about whether Justin Fields, who was doubtful was ruled out,

but he was listed as doubtful for a game against Carolina last year. Like he didn't handle any of these things. Well, very poorly, but he always had energy this time he did it. And that's what like, kind of like made me go, hmm, it's different. That's different than it usually is because that to me signifies that somebody knows it's over and you still have two months of the season to play. That's a scary proposition for the team to be in right now, knowing that you're in the midst of the hardest strength,

remaining strength of schedule. And that started with the Green Bay Packers last week. You've got the Vikings now that are in week 12 you've got the detroit lions on thanksgiving day in front of a national audience a team that just scored seven straight touchdowns uh against jacksonville and and put up 50 plus points for a second time in a season if they do that to the bears i don't think the Bears would make a firing in season. I really don't. The one case I could make for it is if you get embarrassed by the Detroit Lions, a team that used to be the laughingstock of this division. And yeah, it's a completely different

day in Detroit. I'm thrilled for them. I'm thrilled for David Montgomery that he had the foresight to know to go to a place like that instead of re-sign with Chicago and go through more years of this. Bet on yourself, dude. I mean, I'm in a contract here. I'm trying to take that same sort of approach that David Montgomery took because he won in a big way. The only way, though, I could see the Bears firing Matt Eberflus in season is if something goes completely, just absolutely awry next Thursday. And then Friday becomes D-Day here in Chicago. I still don't think it's very realistic, but the way that this thing is played out and just like how,

how tough it is to go in that locker room every single day and ask the same questions about you guys, the offense did this, the defense did this. Why does it feel like things can't ever sync up? Like the answers are just falling. It's kind of all falling on deaf ears at this point. Ready to kick off some extra fun on football Sundays, grab Catan and keep the action going off the field. While Minnesota's football teams are crushing it, you and your crew can build, trade, and outsmart each other in the ultimate game of strategy. Whether it's during halftime or between big plays,

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They should win the game. They should come back home 9-2, and then they have four home games in Decembercember and cruise to another 13 win season for kevin o'connell but you and i know better than that vikings and bears at soldier field all of this lines up to be saying it looks like they're burning and it looks like they're a mess. Things could not be going better for the Vikings aside from, oh, you didn't beat three teams in a row by enough points. Like that's, but, but as far as the vibe goes, the coach, Sam Darnold just had maybe his best performance of the entire year against Tennessee by PFF grade. He did. And by my eye, I thought he did as well. And that just feels too much of the extremes. Like Roger Goodell's national football

league has a way of saying, you think, you know, what's going to happen, but you don't know what's going to happen. So if the bears give the Vikings a very hard time, how will that happen? Well, look at what they did against green Bay. And some of that I think was Jordan love. Like, I mean, there were a couple of times And some of that, I think, was Jordan Love. Like, I mean, there were a couple times where, you know, the Christian Watson completion at the end of the game when Jalen Johnson falls down. This dude does not trip over his own feet. He has excellent feet.

He's a second-team all-pro corner. Just the craziness of those things happening where they could have had a stop there and they didn't. Like, those are lucky breaks. But Jordan Love threw a red zone interception turn the ball over again inside you know when they were inside the 20-yard line those are the ways that this defense has been able to keep teams at bay this year as the offense has tried to figure it out and that was earlier in the season but they had one of the best red zone defenses and still are

you know a pretty good unit in that respect. I think if it's an ill-timed Sam Darnold red zone interception, which we know he's capable of throwing, speaking of the Green Bay Packers and that game that happened in Lambeau a couple of weeks ago. But to me, it comes down to things like that. Because, you know, in terms of where this offense is, everything isn't just fixed because Caleb Williams got the ball out of his hand in 2.42 seconds, and they have a great screen game for all intents and purposes right now. They still can't get the ball downfield at an effective enough rate. Yes, they've run the ball really well, but you're going up against a defense

that is number one in tackles for loss on, on second and long. So like probably want to make sure you take advantage of your early downs. So you're not in that situation. If, if this becomes a game like the Packers, I think some of it's going to have to do with, with, with Minnesota falling off a little bit. And I don't know like where that comes from. If that's maybe do like, you know, there's the Aaron Jones can makers thing.

He's what is Jones is he's not, he's not, he wasn't on the injury report right yesterday. So it's like, if he's, if he's as ineffective as he was against Tennessee, which I don't think he will be because the bears run defense is so bad. Like that's,

that's where I think it would come from where it's like, they get a break and they look like a team that doesn't that like either put it together in one week or just like somehow is able to capitalize on their opponent's weakness for that very game, which they have not been able to do through 11 weeks of season. Like it's never been, oh, they capitalize on the opponent's weakness. They took advantage of that. They ran up the score maybe against Jacksonville, you can say that because Trevor Lawrence was so bad in that game and they, and the receivers kept dropping passes, especially wide open ones in the end zone. I don't think that will happen with the Vikings. I do, I do think the Vikings will win. I don't think it will be a blowout, like a 34-6 game, but they do play, I mean, they always play,

these two teams always play each other for the most part. If it's not a Week 18 game where the starters are resting for both teams, they play each other pretty tough at Soldier Field. Yeah, and I think that's part of it is when you see them play close against the Packers that, well, you can't overlook this team. Not that you do with a division opponent, but it is funny that the answer to the question of how could it happen is it probably won't happen,

but, but it is Sam Darnold. And they have to be opportunistic there. Like that's the same thing with Jordan love. Cause you knew that like Jordan love has a lot of Brett Favre in him. Some of these wild ass throws that he makes. I don't obviously Sam Darnold, the different quarterback,

but I think it's that same, that same strategy that you're really trying to force that guy into mistakes because they've got 17 takeaways this year. It's like fourth in the NFL right now. That's what this defense is predicated on. If the pass rush could just finally get home, they have seven sacks in their last four games. It's not good enough right now.

So that's why I'm kind of like trepidation about it, but it could happen if it happens that way. What if Jordan love is just Sam Darnold with better coaching early in his career. And that could be a possibility. Kind of just came into my mind. Well, I think we should do a pie chart. I'm not, you know, I'm not ready for whatever. Get out the notes app. Hold on. Let me, let me calm you with some chilling music. If I can pull it up here.

I'm not happy about this. Just so you know. Am I in a waiting room somewhere? Am I in a Vegas hotel lobby? I am. Okay. All right. What's my pie chart? I think that's going to mess up the audio if I keep playing it.

But so here's the pie chart. Okay. Caleb Williams outcomes. All right. Let me write this down. Hold on. New note, Caleb Williams outcome. Yeah. There's going to be four potential outcomes. Okay. The first outcome, and this is long-term. This is just how you feel about it right now, long-term. Not for Sunday. For Sunday, he's going to get sacked eight times against Flores' defense. That's what's going to happen. Although, then they blitz.

They haven't really gotten home lately, which is pressure, right? I mean, all things considered, he has been very good against the blitz. Oh, he has. Okay. Well, that's interesting. So the first outcome is that he's just a complete bust, that he's the next Mitch Trubisky and actually worse because Mitch Trubisky went to the playoffs and should have won if not. Did he though?

He was technically the quarterback of a football team that appeared in the postseason. Yes. The generational defense. He was very close to having as many playoff wins as Kirk Cousins in his career. Not for a field goal, but that's outcome number one. Okay. Outcome number two is that Caleb Williams has sort of a Justin Fields arc

where he's definitely not terrible, but he's also not a guy that they want to give the long-term contract to when they get to the end of his time. The next outcome is that Caleb Williams is Trevor Lawrence, where everyone says all the time, ah, you know, man, he's really good, but the coaching or the sporting cast keeps him away from being great. I think we would all take Trevor Lawrence on our team, but no one thinks that Trevor Lawrence is Josh Allen or is Patrick Mahomes, right? And you are going to need a good situation around him, and they probably won't be able to do it.

And the last outcome is that they hire the right coach. Caleb Williams takes big steps forward. He is fantastic, and the NFC is in trouble for a long time. Maybe not my home level, but he's works out. Is that a fair way to phrase it on my notes app? It works out in a way that you're competing for a Super Bowl in Chicago for years to come with him. Okay. All right. Those are your four outcomes.

All right. Give me 20 seconds. Give me some music. All right. Hold on. This kind of sounds like golden eye music. It does. All right. I've got the N64 right here next to me. All right. I've got the N64 right here next to me. All right. And look who is done.

Wow. Okay. It was the music. It really did help. Yeah, it got the wheels turning. I was a little worried that it was going to make me feel like I'm on Jeopardy. And, you know, it goes down. And I'm like, shit, I don't know what I have to write down.

What is dot, dot, dot? That would be me on jeopardy. Okay. So what do we, what do we got here for buy chart? Okay. How do you want this to start? Do you want me to go the highest outcome first or work backwards or start at the lowest? Why don't we just go in the same order? And you could tell me the percentages that you wrote down so the percentage chance that he is a complete and utter bus 10 i don't think it's realistic and here's why because anybody who wants to play revisionist history was not going back saying wow jayden daniels was going to be the best quarterback ever of any rookie whatever like he wasn't nobody said said that Jaden Daniels was going to be the next CJ Stroud,

which he is right now. And hell he's an MVP. He's a probably a third or fourth now based on the last couple of weeks, which he's playing through injury, like being the fourth MVP candidate this year, but yes, he will win rookie of the year. He'll be great. That's cool.

But nobody was saying that Justin, that Caleb Williams was going to be a boss. And I truly don't think that that will happen. There's been too much done to evaluate him to where he's different than... There were so many questions about Trubisky, about Justin Fields, about any other quarterback taken in that range

in the first round the last couple years. Yes, there are some flaws in Caleb's game that you mentioned at the top of the pod just about how, you know, when pressure comes at him, like certainly when he holds onto the ball too long, when he tries to go into hero mode, habits that should have been broken far sooner than making the offensive coordinator switch and now having to basically scheme around some of his problems. But I say it's a 10% chance.

I do not think that it's very realistic that he will be a complete, wow, they had the number one overall pick and they blew it sort of bust. Number two, does he have a Justin Fields arc? You could call this the Mitchell Trubisky arc. You could call this any other quarterback that they've drafted where they don't give a second contract to, because they don't often give second contracts to these guys. I put that at a 20% chance. Why, you ask? Because they have invested so much in the supporting cast around him, around Caleb, to make this work. They will continue to do so. It's very obvious where their draft and free agency priorities are for this next coming year to fix the areas that are serious issues right now, which certainly offensive line is where you start with that. If that works out, like even if he's just a shred above Justin Fields,

probably would, I feel like he would be much better than Justin three or four years in. They're never going to let it get to that point. You know what I mean? Because they've gone through that in recent years. Like literally it was the last quarterback. It wasn't two or three quarterbacks ago, even though two quarter? Because they've gone through that in recent years. Like literally it was the last quarterback. It wasn't two or three quarterbacks ago, even though two quarterbacks ago, they were going through it. They know that they can't perpetuate that cycle. So I think that

they would make the necessary changes in the short term to make sure that it's not, Hey, year three, we don't have an answer on this guy. They're going to mitigate that. So I put that at a 20% chance. Here's where I have the Trevor Lawrence. He's really here. I wrote this down as he's really good, but coaching slash supporting cast. I put that at a 35% chance because the same things that people are saying about Trevor Lawrence coming out using the G word, which I hate the generational word. I wish we would just retire all insane draft isms like that, please. It doesn't, it does nobody any good because it's just recycled talk and you're screaming into an echo chamber regurgitating

a take from a couple years ago. I think it's at a 35% chance here because the coaching, the coaching scapegoat that you can use here. Obviously Shane Waldron was not the right fit. Matt Eberflus picked him. Matt Eberflus clearly is not the right fit for guiding this franchise because of A, his track record picking coaches, and B, I don't think that, you know, I think they will make a coaching change this offseason. I think they will get somebody in that will be a true pairing

with Caleb Williams. Doesn't necessarily mean it has to be an offensive head coach. I do think Cliff Kingsbury would be a great option for that. But if Mike Rabel's around, like that's probably a very, it's probably a very realistic, like, or at least an option you would feel like, yeah, I could see that one working. So I put that at a 35% chance.

The supporting cast argument there, I don't think flies. Just that's probably why I don't have this like lower because I do feel like with the supporting cast right now he has a very good tight end in Cole Comet he has three really good receivers it's not working right now and a lot of that's on Caleb a lot of that's on Caleb with like the off target throws not you know we're talking about oh we're trying to get on the same page guys it's week 12 we that conversation needs to go away. So I give them kind of not a pass for it, but that's where I'm like, if that, with the right coaching, if that's still an excuse next year, come back to me and I'll change my answer on that. If it works out and they compete for a Super Bowl

down the line, whatever that is, I put that at the highest percentage just because there are, I put that at 45%. You can add it up. All of those things add to a hundred. So it's 45 plus 35 plus 20 plus 30. I'm not sure you got this right. This, uh, cause it was such a liar. That's like, no, hold on. 35, 45. Oh, why does this always happen to me? God. Great to have you on the show again. You know, and I wasn't even done on purpose. This isn't some comedic act of If Courtney gets the pie chart wrong again,

like I really thought I had that. The look on your face when you realized that. When I hit 80 and I had 30 to. All right. I still do believe for all intents and purposes. I still do believe that it working out. Is it's probably the better is the highest of the outcomes. And does that mean they have to play for a Super Bowl?

Can we just get this team to the playoffs first? Like, shoot low. They haven't won a playoff game since 2010, when Lovie Smith was the head coach here. So the bar for success, as much as Bears fans, as much as anybody who watched Caleb Williams get drafted and brought in and reared through the offseason with a new roster, more or less, on the offensive side of the ball with a good defense that they solidified with a few pieces.

There was never the thought of quickly this team will be in the Super Bowl if you really looked at it. But quickly, could this team be competing in the NFC North? That's where you got to start. That's where you got to set the bar, first and foremost, because this new group of quarterbacks, especially this year's class, and there's questions on Michael Penix because we haven't seen him.

There's going to be questions on JJ McCarthy. We haven't seen him. But this could be the five of them. Unlike the five, I believe it was in 2021, these could be the next five that are in the Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson trajectory. Guys all drafted around the same time, several from the same draft class that end up taking off and being the guys we watch. I think Caleb will be in that mix. Does that mean he wins

a Super Bowl in Chicago? I don't know yet because they're going to have to make a pretty big overhaul this offseason to give you any confidence that this coaching staff can put the quarterback in the right spot to make him a good quarterback going forward to help develop him. Right now, they're tampering with his development a little bit. They tried to put a Band-Aid over a far bigger issue after nine games by firing the offensive coordinator. Cause they realized this is what tells me it'll be different. They realized, Hey, like year one is not a throwaway year. Like you can't just view it as like, Oh, well, whatever. Like we've got Andy Dalton and Nick Foles and Justin Fields, like figure it out next year when we get rid of those guys. And, and hopefully we're still here as coaches in a front office, then we'll figure

it out. Well, that was wrong. They played that one wrong. They realized they had to like mitigate that as soon as they did. So that would give me the belief that it will be different for him. And if you can just get the like good, if you can see good, like a good trajectory, good progress out of him the next seven games, however many they have left left then the next year at least they they're not they're starting on they're starting on like the positive side of the field they're starting on the plus side of the field so that's how I view that I don't know what percentage it would have to be but that would be my highest percent I actually think that you're mistaken and once you throw out

35 I was like all those fives get you something. Yeah, it does. Why do I do that? I always overcomplicate things. I didn't even require that. I know. I know. I know. It's my own fault. I'm sorry. Gifting is hard, but here's a hint.

Give the gift of connection from U.S. Cellular. Not sure what that means? Here's a slightly more specific hint. You can choose four free phones and get four lines for $90 a month from U.S. Cellular. Your family wants new phones. How do we know? They told us. The good news is that compared to wrapping presents, you are great at getting hints. So take a hint and get them four free phones and four lines for $90 a month. U.S. Cellular, built for us i actually think that your accidental pie chart with 35 and 35 percent for the last two outcomes of either greatness or good ish but maybe frustrating and troublesome supporting cast

are are probably right i don't think that there's much chance. So you think I should have kept my, you think I should have had 35 and 35? That's a cop-out. I'm trying to give you, you want an answer. I'm trying to give you a take, trying to give you the one thing, not, oh, it could be one or the other. I tried to fulfill the assignment

and in trying to do that, the math ended up screwing with me. It did, but I still think you may have gotten it right though, because 10% chance, the fact that he could already win some games screwing with me it did but I still think you may have gotten it right though because 10 chance the fact that he could already win some games and play well and lead what should have been a game-winning drive the other day against the Packers yeah right Washington too right I mean he can already play so he's not a complete this guy can't be on the football field right now he's sort of playing like Justin Fields caliber.

He is already a better passer, I think than fields, but fields running game. I mean, Oh, someone who your defense has to be great. Everything else has to be great to win a football game. That's where he's playing right now.

But I think that a even decent offensive coach, who's going to pair himself with Caleb Williams, which I'm assuming should be their plan. I can't assume that they've got the right plan, but that should be it is going to take him to a certain level, but breaking through that ceiling to the eliteness is, is very hard. Uh, we run into this with Kyler Murray, where it's really good at times. And it's really frustrating at times, which makes him a solid NFL quarterback, but not a superstar that was promised in Caleb Williams' case.

But also that talent is still there, and he's young. And this is when we watch Bo Nix or Jaden Daniels, we have to realize that they're three years older than him. And they played a lot more – I mean, Bo Nix played 60-something games between Auburn and Oregon. And Jaden Daniel lot more. I mean, Bo Nix played 60 something games between Auburn and Oregon and Jaden Daniels. I think it was 55 starts. And it's not that there's a happy medium here. You don't necessarily need that to predict future success. And you also don't need Anthony Richardson playing like 13 games as a starter to be like, oh, that might not work out.

Like Caleb's somewhere in the middle there. And of course, course, like, you know, he won the Heisman Trophy. It doesn't always mean that you're the MVP. It just means that you're the most outstanding player that season. In a year where, you know, he still had to compensate for things that were, you know, not a great group of receivers. Offensive line was okay, not great. They get in all these blowouts, I think partially because of Lincoln Riley and his philosophy that defense doesn't really matter.

But he was still – that stuff still matters in terms of predicting future success. And, oh, this guy might be good at that level. I think the hard part we get into is that we expect like the elite conversation. Sometimes guys were elite at college become solid, tried and true going to get you to the playoffs might not win you a Superbowl, but you're always going to be relevant with this quarterback. Like that's an okay bar. I know that team, every team, every team's fan base thinks that they are going to, into the Super Bowl someday with whoever they draft, and that player's going to be the cog in the whole thing of taking you over the top. That's a great thought, but it's not often realistic. He's, the bar is so low for quarterback play in Chicago. If he's even like a shred of an ounce better than what Jay Cutler was the last time that they were a relevant team in the 2010s,

or even, you know, nobody's saying like, oh, well, Rex Grossman took him to the Super Bowl. No, he didn't take him to the Super Bowl. Like Mitchell Trubisky, he was just there. But like, be better than the last guy who like where the pickup, where his bar is. And Jay had two really good, two good seasons where he had two really good receivers. Um, if you can take a step beyond that, then that's, that's success for this franchise. Cause every franchise is going to be measured differently by that metric. Before you go, what was your most, I'm going to say memorable. I don't want to say favorite. Memorable Vikings-Bears matchup when you were covering the Vikings.

I can start if you want a second to think. No, I know. I know exactly what mine is. Okay. You might say the same as me. Okay, go ahead. This was actually not a game that either of us were at because it was the COVID season.

It was a Monday night football game in Chicago where the Vikings broke the streak. Remember the Cordero Patterson touchdown, or excuse me, kickoff return for a touchdown? I do. And then there was a little explosion on the sideline between Mike Zimmer and former one-year special teams coordinator Marwan Malouf. And you could see it.

There was an interaction between the two a lot of chirping back and forth and the following week when we were interviewing Marwan Malouf um and asking about that interaction like oh yeah like you know it's bummer when when you when you kick to Cordero Patterson knowing that you probably shouldn't kick to him and then and he does that like what was that what was that you probably shouldn't kick to him. And then, and then he does that. Like, what was that? What was that? You know, little skirmish between you and Zim. And the line, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong here, was I don't back down from anybody. And we were all just kind of like stunned, like, whoa, we, we didn't really, you know, we weren't asking you to like sigh, you know, to bow up against mike zimmer but like wondering kind of like what was that all about um that one made me laugh because i remember they had lost a lot of games

at soldier field up until that point of course in 17 they end up coming back and winning because of the harrison smith there's a pick six that's trubisky's first start in two week five 2017 he picked it off to set them up for a game winning field goal. Game winning field goal. Kai Forbath, right? He was the pick. Sounds right. I think so.

Yeah, I think that's right. The 17th season. It must have been. Yeah. There was, what, in 18, that was the Sunday night football game where Kirk saw a ghost and overshot Kyle Rudolph. There was the – The Truth All Rumors game, which was –

Truth All Rumors game when Diggs had the meltdown because it was like him and Thielen were wide open downfield and Kirk took the check down to C.J. Hamm. Yeah, Truth All Rumors game, and then that's what sparked Stephon Diggs not showing up for practice the following week when they were going to go play Philadelphia Eagles, et cetera, et cetera, COVID year. And then 20, 2021 was very like ho-hum. Another Monday night game, just like, I don't really have like super recollection from that game. Like if anything that was like super hilarious to cover or a iconic moment, but the one, yeah, the one game that the Vikings, when I was there outside of 2017,

one at soldier field was one that we weren't even there for because we weren't traveling during COVID. And with Marwan Maloof, as you mentioned, no one asked him to try to fight Mike Zimmer. And we didn't, we just said what happened on the play. And you'd be amazed how often that happens, where you're just like, or our friend Judd Zolgad wants to ask Zimmer, Mike, are you mad? And he went crazy about a certain subject after that. I'll give you mine real quick. In 2018, I said the Chicago press box, a little tight in it. It's a little tight.

Not my favorite. I know where you're going with this. And you and I were placed right in front of the general manager of the minnesota vikings at the time and it was a rough watch for the gm for the quarterback that he had paid more money to guaranteed at the time than anyone else in history and there were several plays especially one where kirk could have run for a touchdown and instead just threw the ball away where spielman was behind us going run run come on and punching just threw the ball away where Spielman was behind us going run run come on and punching the table and we're like don't look at my tweets yeah that was

so uncomfortable because yeah to peel back the curtain here that side of the press box is really narrow yes and anybody who's sitting above you can look this is a good time to get a screen protector for everybody listening right now, go to Amazon and buy the thing that blacks out your screen. So nobody can like look at your computer unless they are truly directly in front of it. Because I remember that as like, Oh geez. Like, and they would always place us next to each other on the road. So it'd be like the hitting each other on the table. Like, Oh my God,

did you just see what happened? And then hearing that behind us, that was a, God, that Sunday night game was brutal. Because at US Bank Stadium, where we sit, we're not even close to any of these people. No, and you're in the corner of the end zone too, where you are. Like I'm closer to the 50 now, but it's, it's a weird, it's a weird angle and a weird vantage point.

And it was like, I think it was, yeah, it was, it was Rick, George Payton, Rob Brzezinski, like all right behind us. So the Vikings brass, then it was like, I think it was, yeah, it was Rick, George Payton, Rob Brzezinski, like all right behind us. So the Vikings brass. And then it's like, oh, shoot. This is not a moment where we can be, you know, talking our talk. Right. We had a tendency to maybe joke around occasionally during those home games

when no one could hear what we were saying. But for that day, the quiet snickers like the kids in the back of the class, but that was a tough, tough outing there for the Vikings. Anyway, well, I have greatly enjoyed seeing your success at ESPN. It feels like every time I walk by a television, I was in Vegas, I'm walking by a television. I'm like, Oh, DiCaprio meme of pointing at the TV, but it feels like that happens all the time. I'll be out having lunch with my in-laws. I'll be like, I know her and they're very impressed.

So no, I love to see it. And I know that everyone here is very happy for you, except for the fact that you're covering a much worse team than here in Minnesota. Yeah, no, I mean,

it is kind of wild that I leave Minnesota granted, you know, the team that I had covered is not this team. Like 14 to 22 starters were replaced from the 2022 team, which was in a lot of ways a new team because of the coaching staff. Like I feel like my Vikings that I covered were like eons ago. All there is left is Brian O'Neillill and cj ham and arison smith and um i mean christian derisaw was kind of there when i was there yeah yeah bradbury was there um remember that time i nailed that draft pit my mock draft pick on christian derisaw after they had traded down

and that guy and i like quote tweeted that guy who like wanted to fight me and i was like i'm gonna fight you too and that was i do yes i do a lot of victory laughs on people that defines my time in minnesota me talking smack when i probably should not be um certain quarterbacks who may have gotten cut out of certain camps could have caused some certain problems with some certain people online but uh that's a story for another day as is Courtney our draft scout which will return she will be back she'll be off season for sure there's gonna be a lot of draft scouting because this year it's not it's not obvious that it's Caleb Williams you know what I mean like there's draft scouts gonna have to I have to call her and see what she's up to she's probably like trying to get ready down like to go to mobile um, offensive line, that's her bread and butter.

Find out where the glass eaters are. Get ready to go to Mobile. Okay, we got to stop. You know the draft starts in Mobile? Yeah, I'm aware from every person who started a WordPress being there. Okay, you guys, you got to go. We both got to go. Goodbye.

This is too much. Football.