Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - ESPN's Courtney Cronin ranks her best Vikings and Packers storylines

Episode Date: November 18, 2021

ESPN's Courtney Cronin joins Matthew Coller to talk about the Minnesota Vikings' matchup with the Green Bay Packers. How does Mike Zimmer's defense match up with Aaron Rodgers? Why they have had some good battles along the way but Rodgers has often come out on top. Can the Vikings prevent Rodgers from throwing deep? How will they pressure him without Danielle Hunter? On the offensive side, it's become very clear who everyone's pointing the finger at for the lack of aggressiveness on offense. Will Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen still have a big week? Or will a defense that can create pressure cause problems for the Vikings? Plus a pie chart explaining what happens if the Vikings beat Green Bay. Visit TickPick.com/Insider to get tickets to the game. To register for a chance to win a pair of tickets to the Boarder Battle, follow @purple_insider on twitter and retweet our tweet about the ticket giveaway (and make sure you follow @purple_insider so we can DM you if you win) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collard here along with ESPN's Courtney Cronin. And Courtney, we've got things that we need to do like pie charts and so forth. By the way, please tell intern Paul I am obsessed with the new pie chart graphic. His skills in, is that InDesign? That's actually Jonathan Harrison who created that okay we'll tell Jonathan that I am obsessed with it because the graphics are amazing you and I started this pie chart thing on a piece of paper three years ago and now it's gone digital so I don't know I don't know how we ever top that. The show continues to amaze me with its growth. That being one of the biggest things. Yeah.

Luckily, we were able to bring Jonathan on. He used to produce my old show and he's been working on our social media. So if you have not followed the Purple Insider Twitter account, Jonathan's running that as well as helping on the YouTube as well. And that's where Paul is. That's where I would have seen the thing with Paul. Yep, exactly. So Paul's doing a lot of pie charts as well. And that's where Paul is doing his show. That's where I would have seen the thing with Paul. Yep, exactly. So Paul's doing a lot of pie charts as well.

I demanded that on his YouTube show, Hot Routes, that he does pie charts. That was like one of the terms is that he has to do them. So we will get to a pie chart. But I was thinking for a game like this, the stakes are high. In fact, I saw Brian Burke of espn tweet out which games matter the most to playoff position and the vikings were i think the third highest for the percentage of chance to

make the playoffs that is better if they win yes or worse if they lose obviously 26 difference is their playoff chances over 50 if they win they win, around 25% if they lose. Yes, 55% if they win, a loss drops them to 29%. They have a 41% chance entering this week, which is still kind of baffling to me, but I think it's really the race for the number seven seed. We're going to write a movie about this someday, being like, man, do you guys remember those final two months

of the 2021 season when they were like six teams battling for the number seven seed the Vikings very much being in the mix and I mean for the Packers too they enter this week with a 34% chance for the number one overall seed so this is you know a loss here whatever like there's they're making the playoffs but their chances would improve to 55% to lock up that number one seed where you could cruise the rest of your schedule. Right. I mean, if they get the one seed and now the way that the playoffs are structured, that is gigantic. That means you're the only team that gets to sit and be a hundred percent healthy and wait for the other playoff teams to come. And that used to be the top two teams, and so you wanted a one or two seed.

But now the fact that there's only one, it makes that race more compelling for that number one seed. So this game is huge for both teams for different reasons. So I thought, why don't we overthink it? I've already used all of my games up for this week. So why don't you just tell me what you think the biggest storylines of this matchup are? Every year I go into this game wondering what new thing can Mike Zimmer pull out of his bag of tricks to throw at Aaron Rodgers. And you never want to go in asking a coach, well, hey, Aaron Rodgers, you've seen him for

eight years now as a head coach slash defensive coordinator. He is obsessed with you every year. It's like a love fest between those two, just lauding compliments at each other from 300 miles away. But you never want to be like, well, Aaron Rodgers probably knows everything you're going to throw at him. And I'd be like, no, no, he doesn't know this. Or I've got this exotic thing designed up but I think it's a matter now of how well timed does everything have to be in order to contain Aaron Rodgers you're never going to stop him I remember last year Zimmer said that same thing so it wasn't even Mike Zimmer that kind of gave me kind of turned the light bulb on my in my

eyes Andre Patterson yesterday was talking about you know what do you do with with Aaron Rodgers when you have this much institutional knowledge of him and vice versa he knows exactly what this defense is going to bring he in his press conference talked about Barr Harrison Smith having seen Patrick Peterson all of that like do you need new wrinkles for Aaron Rodgers given you've seen him so many times? And Patterson's answer honestly sounded very Belichickian to me in saying that, you know, quote, we've still got to do what our guys do best. You can't throw everything out the window and come up with a whole new scheme and your players can't go out there and execute because you set yourself up for failure with that. So I thought that that was a pretty astute way to handle this

considering every year they're going to be trying to up the ante against an Aaron Rodgers, right? Like he has gotten the best of this team more than any other quarterback in the NFL period against any single opponent. He has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's the greatest all-time of any single opponent. Like, you think he owns the Bears? He actually owns the Vikings.

It's my story that I wrote this week. Like, cool that you can flip the double bird and do a discount double check to whoever's screaming lady in the fan section at Soldier Field, but that's probably what he's going to be doing here in Minnesota. He owns the Minnesota Vikings in a way that he doesn't own any other opponent, and no quarterback ever has owned another opponent. So to me, I love the chess match. Yes, I think that there's a lot coming down here with the Vikings offense, which I'm sure we'll get into, but man, that to me is the most exciting part. What does the wizard himself and Mike Zimmer in dialing up all of these exotic blitzes,

different pressure packages, changing coverages, whatever, what does he do to go against somebody who has eluded him and evaded him throughout his entire career here in Minnesota? Yeah, and the Zimmer-Rogers bout is, to me, what's on the marquee I mean that's been the battle for a very long time it's unfortunate that in 2017 when Zimmer had his best defense they didn't get to face Aaron Rogers thanks Anthony Barr right Anthony Barr heard him on the first play and then Rogers was not able to come back for that game later in the season. Right. So the but the I mean, there have been so many great matchups between these two.

And I was looking at the PFF grades for each individual game for Rodgers. And there have been times where Rodgers puts up a 90 plus PFF grade. There was one the opening game in 2016 where he had a 43 grade against the Vikings and threw a bad interception to lose that game at the end. And it feels like sometimes Rodgers pummels the Vikings defense. Sometimes the Vikings make it hard for him the entire game. And what's interesting to me, tell me if this stat matches up with your feeling about the Vikings past defense. So looking at expected points added, the Vikings defense is sixth in the NFL in expected points added through their past defense. So looking at expected points added, the Vikings defense is sixth in the NFL in expected points added through their past defense. They're number one in sacks, which

clearly without Daniil Hunter is, you know, going to dip eventually. Right. It will. But they were still able to create pressure on Justin Herbert. Uh, do you think that that is representative of who they've been or has it been outside of Herbert's outside of Kyler Murray there hasn't been great competition quarterback wise or is that like do you think that they are a elite passing defense? I have a hard time with that because the numbers would show you like what you were talking about with EPA and everything else that they are right there as a top 10 defense. But did Lamar Jackson really do anything the week before with his arm?

Like, I mean, he has an elite arm. I'm not getting into like moving the goalpost on Lamar Jackson argument, but he didn't do anything that really wowed me in terms of like, man, carving up this past defense, the pressure doesn't get to him. He's getting the ball out quickly, whatever. So that's probably why they were still up as high as they were and then the week before that it's it's freaking cooper rush like i mean he had one good throw and i mean one of the other good throws was from the receiver cedric wilson so i think that the discrepancy in that and a lot of that is i don't know if it's

stat padding as much as it is body of work, given the quarterbacks you've gone against, because you've already faced Jared Goff. You have to face him again. You face Sam Darnold. He sucks. He's not even playing anymore because he's hurt. Baker Mayfield's not very good. Who else am I forgetting here? Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson. And I'm sure that that probably has, if you were to factor in everything there, that would probably be why they are where they are. But even he didn't have a great, you know, they got behind the defense a couple times. But nonetheless, yes, I agree with your point there

that it probably has to do with the fact that they haven't faced those elite, elusive quarterbacks making throws on the run and not letting pressure affect them nearly as much as a Kyler Murray or an Aaron Rodgers have yeah the fact that they played Seattle feels like 17 years ago so I forgot Wilson in that mix Lamar Jackson seemed to create his own problems with his passing but at the same time I don't want to take the credit away because everybody faces a mix of good and bad quarterbacks in the NFL and I don't think it's been so heavily leaned toward bad quarterbacks that I could say this stat is fraudulent I think this stat tells us that they are a good passing defense that even though

they've had some inconsistent cornerback play and and I think just interrupt I think the inconsistent cornerback plays when folks will be like man what's going on there like the defensive pass interferences that go for 20 30 yards and some of them are just some of them are not I think that factors into at least just the eye test being like hey is the pass defense fixed right and and also it is like in and you've talked about this too with you know just asking questions around here is the clutch defense has not really been there that when they've needed some plays the most from their defense they haven't exactly been there so you feel like okay your numbers overall are pretty good and there's a lot that you've done well, like leading the league in sacks,

at the same time when you're only mediocre in points allowed 12th and you've given up those final drives to Cooper Rush, to Sam Darnold. It's hard to say, okay, well, against Aaron Rodgers, you're just going to shut him down. I do think that with Patrick Peterson back and Harrison Smith back presumably on both of those that this is a capable secondary of handling the Green Bay Packers because what's interesting to me is we talk about the Vikings not pushing it down the field I mean the Packers are not pushing it down the field like they're they are not really an explosive offense this year compared to last year. They are very much a dink and dunk type of team.

And they have a decent run game, although the run game was like a stinker against Kansas City and against Seattle last week. I don't know what's going on with that. And now they don't have Aaron Jones. So that absolutely affects. I know Patrick Peterson today called them number one defense. I'm not exactly sure in what.

He said number one offense. I'm not sure what category he's referring to I mean maybe it's because of who the quarterback is but even Rodgers didn't look good in his return last week I wouldn't say again return off the COVID list he never had to miss a game because that was a Thursday night game but uh week before anyways um there, the Packers, it was the Love game and then the Thursday night game before. Nonetheless, I just don't feel like the offense is the same offense that won the NFC championship. Now, is this an offense that's capable of kicking it into a second gear for the second half of the season? That's exactly how Aaron Rodgers won the MVP last year, right?

Because it was going to be Derrick Henry, and then Aaron Rodgers went ape for the final four weeks of the season. So I think that they're certainly capable of doing it, but they are dealing with a pretty big rash of injuries right now. Unfortunately for him, he does have Devontae Adams and the rest of his receivers. So looking at Rodgers' numbers this year on deep throws, it will really take you aback. He is 13 for 41, throwing it over 20 yards with a 53.5 quarterback rating, which is kind of wild.

I mean, you would expect that Rodgers' numbers throwing deep would be much, much better than that. He has been really terrific in those intermediate throws, as you would expect. Short throws are just fine. But the deep throws from last year were a huge factor for them. He had 123 quarterback rating last year and was completing 42% of those bombs, which is a really high rate. So that's been a big change. And I don't know if that's just because people aren't getting open downfield or he's forcing

the ball downfield or he's just not throwing the ball as well but that threat is not there as much as it was and I think that it can allow the Vikings defense to be a little more aggressive and I looked at the film from the last couple of games the third downs against Aaron Rodgers it is really something to see the pressures that they dial up like I don't think there's any quarterback just who exists who can easily look at these pressures and go oh I know who's coming from where because Zimmer mixes it up so much in every game I couldn't find two that looked alike that that every third down there was a different looking pressure for Aaron Rodgers to have to diagnose and think about like how like the last time they played him too what the defensive line looked like right you didn't have her gillies mata alpha was playing in that game and dj want him had the sack on second down late in the game from like the vikings 40 something yard line which sealed the game for them um because

they didn't have timeouts and they ran out of clock like their personnel is a lot different not a whole ton different and we still don't know too, if Kenny Willikies is going to come off the COVID-19 reserve list. But that's where they excel. In games like this, A, playing up to your competition. You don't want Rodgers to beat you. You want to be able to even out that series even more than you already have. And B, I mean, I think that someone like him, who is so good at staying in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield and giving his receivers a chance that makes your job so much more difficult as a defensive lineman to

try to create pressure and if they do end up getting David Bakhtiari back which I don't know Zimmer said he was coming back uh earlier in the week I don't think he's practiced but nonetheless I mean it's still a very tough task for them, he hasn't. Their pass blocking is still top 10 in the league by PFF. What sticks out to me is that Green Bay's run blocking is not rated very high. And the Achilles heel of the Vikings is a thing that teams usually don't like to stick to, which is handing off and handing off and handing off. Like Cleveland won the game in part because they had the ball the entire time because the Vikings couldn't stop them on the ground.

And there will be no Michael Pierce in this game. So we're seeing guys like James Lynch, inexperienced players like Patrick Jones on the defensive line. If Green Bay sticks to their run game with A.J. Dillon and gives it to him a lot I would be concerned for the Vikings defense it's just will they actually be patient enough to do that because I think that they can keep this close I don't look at the Packers offense and see anything that should really terrify you that says to me that this game at least stays fairly close

but I think on the other side in terms of our storylines the Packers have a legitimately very very good defense their seventh in defensive EPA and that's where we get into the conversation about how do you carry over what they did in the second half against the Chargers yeah they're allowing a league low 11.6 points per game since week six so they shut out the Seahawks last week and their last team to read they were the last team to record back-to-back shutouts um since the Rams in 2014 so that's pretty impressive and I mean granted the week before um that was what Love's game against Kansas City like yeah you know there really wasn't that much to uh you know, to write home about. But they played well on defense against the Holmes.

So that to me, when you talk about do they go back to being mediocre offensively, do they go back to, you know, not being as courageous and as aggressive as they were downfield, that's what I would be worried about against a team like the Packers. I don't know about you guys, but I've gotten very good in my life at admitting when I need some help. If you are struggling to figure out how to navigate workers' compensation and disability laws, I've got a team that can lend you a hand.

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My question is, how do the Packers approach Justin Jefferson? Because it was really surprising to me that in key moments, Justin Jefferson got one-on-one looks. And after the game, Kirk Cousins, sort of contradicting what his coach said, basically said, well, yeah, I mean, if he's one-on-one, that's my read, as opposed to he was forcing it downfield or whatever. And those two, they try to contradict each other whenever they can. But I was looking just at the numbers from PFF about Jefferson's grade when he's going up against man coverage, and no surprise, second-best receiver in the league.

Unstoppable man coverage. So do the Packers make an adjustment here to say they're going to double team him all the time throughout this game and you watch on tape is, oh, this is how they beat the Chargers. So we have to make sure that we don't play the same way. I think that's always been tough for the Vikings is that when they sort of find something offensively, the next team up. Yeah. But also the next team up knows like, OK, that for you, and you talked about how much it worked all week, so that's the thing we're going to take away. Sure, and quickly to correct myself, the Chiefs scored a touchdown there in that game in the first quarter, and then they held them to field goals.

So technically it was almost a shutout. The last team to do that was the Rams a few years ago, but nonetheless I think that we'll always remember that game as a Jordan Love experiment, but the Packers defense really did come through in that game is a Jordan Love experiment but the Packers defense really did come through in that game yep I it shouldn't be that hard to figure out though with the Vikings offense of what they're going to do and honestly should it not work to their advantage where all last week we were hinted at Justin Jefferson having a big game Mike Zimmer had talked about it a little bit Jefferson was talking about you know just give me a chance, you know, trust, all these other things with

Kirk Cousins, good players want to change the game. And Clint Kubiak was asked, hey, it's, what do you think about Jefferson having nine catches, nine targets and five catches in two games? He's like, yeah, you don't want to leave a game with that kind of stat line. You want to get your best player the ball. So they did. Well did well you know what they've also got Adam Thielen like that's the thing that should be the beauty of this offense that sure Jefferson is going to be doubled and draw a lot of bracket coverage whatever have a safety over the top of him at most times that's going to free up Thielen so I don't honestly know if we'll ever see the days where I mean you, you might kind of see what, you know, the Rams did against Tennessee two weeks ago where both Cooper Cup and Robert Woods had near 100 yards receiving games. They still lost, but like, I don't know if you're going to see those types of games as frequently as we would think given like, hey, you've got two great receivers, just throw them the ball.

You can run on this defense with Dalvin Cook to at least establish something. But this to me feels like, hey, if they go in thinking that they're going to throw to Justin Jefferson, that's not probably the best plan. I think that this has to be an Adam Thielen-esque game. Use them in the red zone. Use them in places that you used to because it doesn't seem like it's happening as much, nearly as much anymore. No, that's right um that they have not had those games where and we see this from digs and thielen sometimes where this guy has 98 yards and this guy has 120

it hasn't happened all that often where we've seen both thielen and jefferson go off on a particular game this stuck out to me, this Jefferson quote. He said today when Adam Thielen was talking about the formula to win is to basically throw them the football, which I mean, isn't this funny that this is an aside. Stefan Diggs never said publicly they should throw us the football. He actually said that behind the scenes. And then it was inferred what happened right he never did a press conference where he came out and said throw me the football more that never happened right he only revealed later that that was the conflict between him and Zimmer and so forth right these two receivers are just outright saying throw us the throw us the

ball give us a chance I I love 50-50 balls. Whatever Justin Jefferson said today. I got it right here. It's the easiest read between. You don't even have to read between the lines. Just read it straight. You know exactly what he's saying. And all right, read his quote.

And then I'm going to read Thielen's quote from yesterday because you know where I'm going with that. Okay. Jefferson said, I feel like we show that if he goes out and throws the ball to us, we're going to make the play. No matter the situation. I mean, that's what we live for. That's what we do. I mean, especially he says he pointing directly to the quarterback.

If Kirk cousins will actually throw us the ball when given the chance, then we're going to make plays. This is much more direct than it ever was coming from Stefan digs. And this, I think tells you about the level of frustration that they reached with not getting enough throws sure I mean this this right here is very telling the two of them in the Dallas game yeah like that was insane and here's Thielen's quote about can that aggressiveness carry over and he was talking about like hey this is the

formula you need to win games quote you have to be games. Quote, you have to be able to be aggressive, and you have to be able to convert in aggressive situations to win games because there's so much firepower offenses can score points, especially this offense this week. And he goes on and on to say that because it can be aggressive play calling or aggressive this or that, but you've still got to go out there and execute and win which is tough in this league um to me those are shots at kurt cousins of like especially the point and it wasn't

even in it might have even have been in this quote i just like circled that one where he said there were we look back at the tape and there were even more opportunities for us to have been aggressive that's on cousins yes That is on the quarterback. I think when you talked about it last week against Baltimore and it kind of sparked this whole topic of conversation with us for the week and with pretty much everyone else that they didn't lose the Baltimore game because Clint Kubiak only had, quote-unquote, longer developing routes on the third down in overtime. They lost that game because Cousins wasn't willing to take

earlier chances because he hit Justin Jefferson for a 50-yard touchdown and then the dude disappeared because he had two catches for 21 yards against Dallas and then he disappeared. That's on the quarterback. Play calling certainly has something to blame and I'm still of the belief that there was somebody else helping Clint Kubiak at the end of the second half for sure. Someone else was helping calling plays. I've given Clint Kubiak every chance to answer that question. I have given Mike Zimmer every chance to answer that question.

Go ahead and say who it was because those of us who know, know. And it's just kind of infuriating for that part alone. But nonetheless, can the aggressiveness carry over? I kind of have my doubts because this team manages to get in its own way because the quarterback gets in his own way and overthinks things. And, you know, the defense that the Packers have is a bar better defense than what the Chargers had. And like the fact that the Chargers were giving him single high against Justin Jefferson when they were such a heavy two-deep shell, weird.

Weird, weird, weird. I don't think the Packers are going to do the same thing. That was very surprising. By the way, this just came up in my Twitter that Rashawn Gary, who is the top pass rusher of Green Bay, has been banged up. And he was practicing today. So that gives them a chance to have one of their top pass rushers back in the lineup that could be significant because it usually comes down

to with Cousins do you give him time and Clint Kubiak made that point today he said you know one of the reasons that we were able to hit on those throws down the field is because Cousins was given time to throw. And there was even, I think a small, I asked Clint Kubiak, I said, Hey, you know, when it comes to coaching, throwing, you know, into coverage, you know, taking those risks, being aggressive versus, um, you know, not turning the ball over. Clint Kubiak basically said, that's a quarterback thing. Yeah. Oh, okay. He straight up said that's a quarterback thing. And how about this for a statistic?

Kirk Cousins, when pressured this year, is averaging 4.3 yards per pass attempt. 4.3 when he is under pressure. So that's what this comes down to. You know what's surprisingly? The only one who's worse is Aaron Rodgers, which is stunning. When pressured. When pressured. Aaron Rodgers is actually doing worse than Kirk Cousins this year,

which is surprising for sure. I don't know if that's a contract year thing with him or what, but this is who Cousins generally is, and that will be the determining factor for this game, I think, is does he get time to throw it, and do they give him looks that give him one-on-one opportunities? And if they don't, if they pressure him, if they double those guys as top receivers. Then you're going to be looking at a Tyler Conklin and CJ Hamm game. Yep.

Which is, if you can win that way, great. But, like, I just don't think that that's the effective approach. And, I mean, I asked Zimmer something similar on Monday, I think it was, about, you know, how do you balance with Kirk? Because, like, here's the thing. Like, if you keep telling us that cover two looks and too high, however you define too high, cover two, Tampa to whatever like too deep yeah don't see too much Tampa to around I mean I'm just throwing out examples of what it would be oh yeah that was a that was a old school like Derek Brooks coming out with Tampa too but like if you know how do

you like because he's scared like he's scared I'm sorry that is that is a response that is like hey somebody's scared of doing that and Zimmer said he's like well I, he's scared. I'm sorry. That is a response that is like, hey, somebody's scared of doing that. And Zimmer said, he's like, well, I don't think Kirk worries about throwing interceptions. But early in the game, they gave him different looks of safeties. He got blitzed a ton. Those guys looked like they were coming out of a cannon. You and I were sitting next to each other being like, wow, look how fast that blitz was. But nonetheless, like, I think it's very obvious here who the problem is against cover two. And it's not that Clint Kubiak isn't drawing up the right plays there. It's the quarterback being scared to make those throws. If it happens again against Green Bay where it reverts back to form,

you're probably going to be playing this song and dance from here on out because after Green Bay you have San Francisco. And seeing what they did defensively to take that away from the Rams the other night is kind of worrisome. And then it's Detroit, so you're going to be doing the song and dance of trying to back your way into the playoffs with eight or nine wins. And a lot of that's going to be on the shoulders of the quarterback. Right.

That's the one thing is that even though Chad Graff and I the other day were talking about how the Vikings have the advantage for coach and quarterback, they also face a lot of tough defenses down the stretch. Chicago is still a very capable defense. They'll face Green Bay again, and that will be in weather, more likely than not it's cold weather. And you also face Pittsburgh, which is an excellent defense. And theams have a

very good defense as well so it's not it's not going to be an easy group of defenses to do this against and it ultimately does come down to whether cousins can come through for them i mean this this is this is what's great about this final stretch of games and where they sit right now because as they're making decisions about the future it's very much go do it like you if you want that contract extension if you want to stay here and coach if you want to stay here in gm here's here is the carpet laid out for you the opportunity to get big wins against your division opponents which is why everybody's here and if you can't do it then there's no reason to carry on. And if you can't do it, then there's no reason to carry on with this if you can't do it again for the fourth year.

I think it's pie chart time. Pie chart time. Yes, pie chart time. Oh, I got to get my math out. Okay, your math. So here's your abacus. You have to get that out. So here's the pie chart.

If the Vikings win this game against the Green Bay Packers, do they A, go deep in the playoffs, B, end up as a seven seed, one and done, C, they end up still just missing the playoffs because they melt down down the stretch. Or this is the height of the season. They go to San Francisco, lose. Everything falls apart after that, and it ends up just being a horrendous season. So you have deep in the playoffs. This is if they win. If they win. Deep in the playoffs. One and done as the six or seven seed.

Come just short of the playoffs or still fall apart entirely if they beat the packers okay got a song or something although i introduced some metal to the show earlier what is that all about uh we did a little game called like what's this stat mean is what's this stat mean so yeah i mean we could really change this to an all okay i'm ready that's fine okay thank god okay because i'll just keep talking about that i mean the heavy metal thing i feel like i need to go back and listen to that episode what's this that mean okay so the vikings win against the green bay packers of green bay of green bay a deep run into the playoffs to me i put that at 25 the reason i say that is is like we were talking about the number seven seed earlier i think it's going to be like a 30 for 30 someday be like remember when there were five teams that it all came down to

week 18 of the season with all these division games that you know made it such a big deal I mean first off this is why I love the fact that the NFL switched it up and all the games at the end of the year division games because week 18 is actually going to matter um at least for the teams that haven't locked up the number one seed i could see that happening beyond this week is san francisco good are they fraudulent we will find out but after that your schedule is so manageable the hard game you have in there is the rams a day after christmas you've got chicago twice you've got green bay once again i think they split with green Green Bay either way and then you have Detroit and Pittsburgh I think that they could very well end up running the table among all of the other teams that are in the mix for the seven seed like

when you look at what the seven seed potentially is Carolina Vikings San Francisco potentially Philly maybe Atlanta easily it's like one of these is not like the others. It's the Vikings, most talented team of that group. They shouldn't be there. Yeah. So 25%. But seven seed, one and done, though, 40% chance. That is my highest one of the entire list

because it feels like this team is playoff bound because they saved their season last week. If they, if they lose to the chargers, it's over at this point, because they're three and six, a very difficult, difficult hole to climb out of.

And you'd have to be perfect the rest of the way. But if they're the seven seed and then they end up what going either to Tampa Bay, the first round of the playoffs, right. That would make sense. If Tampa Bay is two, I mean, I know Atlanta, I know a green Bay and Arizona round of the playoffs, right? That would make sense if Tampa Bay is two. I mean, I know Green Bay and Arizona right now are one, tied for one.

So either way, I think that that would be a loss, a first-round loss in the playoffs. C, missing the playoffs altogether. What was C again exactly? C is missing the playoffs, but they're in it all the way to the end yes i think that the song and dance of at 500 one game below at 500 one game below my least favorite song in the world that probably actually should be higher than it is but i do think this is a playoff team because of just the luck that they had break their way and they got a very important one when they needed it, 20%. And then them being a complete disaster here on the rest of the season, 15%.

Injuries have not been kind to this team at all. We don't know if Michael Pierce is ever going to come back. I saw Daniil Hunter coming back from the testing trailer, so clearly he must have had his pec surgery. I mean, he's obviously not coming back, but big loss. I don't think that they're going to collapse down the stretch, though, because I feel like they're galvanized enough internally to be like, look, we are capable enough of doing this.

Let's at least try to go down to the wire. I don't think they're going to go on like a four game losing streak here, unless there's some sort of critical COVID thing, which this team has had or an injury. So go through those percentages real quick. Yes. Deep into the playoffs of the win over the Packers, 25%,

seven seed and one and done 40%. Song and dance to get into barely making the playoffs and they don't make the playoffs. 20% collapse, monumental explosion, 15%. Folks, have you ever thought about taking a bike to work, but figure it's too far or that the hills are too steep or heck who wants to show up to work covered in sweats? Well, that's why you need to check out the electric cruiser bike from my friends at Boogie Bikes. The Boogie Bike gives you all the experience of saving gas, getting outside, and feeling the wind through your hair. Say if you have a haircut like that Green Bay quarterback, but you don't have to be an Olympic cyclist in order to get all those benefits. The Boogie Bike

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I like it. The one thing maybe I would go a little lower on is deep into the playoffs. Okay. They do have, that's the thing you always come back to is, they do have the talent. Sure. And we thought from the very beginning that they should be like a 10-7 team. Sam picked them as 11-6.

I was at 10 and seven initially, then nine and eight. Right. So we've always had them there. And you're talking about if you get one win, you're kind of deeper into the playoffs. I think of it as NFC championship game is deep into the playoffs. So maybe I was going divisional round,

but like nonetheless, cause they haven't gotten there in a while. It's ambiguous language. But yeah, you're right. It's two wins. It's ambiguous language. But yeah, you're right. It's two wins. So I might go a little lower than that. I might go like 15%, because I still don't trust them in multiple football games

in the playoffs against good teams. Sure. They're going to have to prove that. If they could beat the Packers, the Rams, and the Packers again, I guess the Steelers might have a winning record. But aside from that, those are their only two tough games as you're talking about. Then I might believe it, but I would need a little more convincing from what we've seen.

If they beat the Packers, I think their fate still sort of screams 9-8. And losing in the first round, going to face Brady, something like that. That's why that was my highest percentage. Yep, and I agree with that. And I would probably put that. I feel like right now they're a nine and eight team. I agree. And I think that they win this race. The only thing is though, this could change quick. I mean, if they win this game, but then lose to San Francisco and San Francisco has a tie break against them, then all of a sudden you go back the other way. So it's kind of a week to week type of feeling on that. Uh, the complete collapse, just unless cousins is out for the rest of the year, which he's never been.

And COVID is always right around the corner, but that hasn't happened. So unless cousins goes out, I don't see any type of collapse. He just, he plays the same way, no matter the circumstance and you'll win some and you'll lose some, no matter what. So even if it feels like the world is ending, if they were to win against green Bay and then still hit the skids, he'll have big game against Detroit. He'll have a big game against Chicago. One of the two or something like that. So that's a good pie chart. Um, let me ask you before we wrap up, what storylines do you think have been left on the table this week because there's been so much focus on Rodgers Zimmer and just how much this game means how different their run game is with

AJ Dillon I think when you look at what happened when Aaron Jones went out and what Dillon was able to do I was looking at this earlier just going through just some cut-ups of you know what he looked like and how they were able to establish a screen game. I think that it went simple once that happened, but he opened up the running game, and he's a different type of back. We really haven't talked much about the Packers' run game, and considering where Aaron Rodgers is in his career and that his numbers right now are not nearly as high as they would normally be,

especially during his um you know mvp campaign uh that to me was probably the one that was left off the table is how different is an aj dylan versus uh in aaron jones yeah aaron jones has been really good against the vikings he is very explosive dylan is hard to tackle he's big he's extremely big should be a fullback he's marion butts he's jerome bettis yeah he's huge he's a very big man not quite ironhead hayward who went at 275 as a running back jesus yeah that was that was nuts brandon jacobs probably for the giants running back so there's some beefy men um yeah I think for me it's just uh like how these players come back from COVID and what they do on the offensive line yeah we haven't I mean we have talked about Mason Cole and Garrett Bradbury and it sounds like Garrett Bradbury according to Kirk

was running with the ones I guess that's to me that's more of a front office decision of we are not going to look stupid by having our first round pick who needs to prove himself the rest of these eight games. We're not going to have him sit out even if he is COVID-y still in terms of trying to get his body back. But yeah, nonetheless, that's not a good sign. Yeah, I think so. And the other thing that people keep asking about a lot, but I just don't see it, is Kenny Wong Wu actually getting some usage. Yeah, doubtful. I think it's right. I thought it was the right thing to do, too.

That's why I asked the question two weeks ago, and I was like, yeah, they'll do it. No, they won't. No. Not unless somebody gets hurt. You would think that the ghost of Cordero Patterson would show up and be like, give him the ball somehow. Look at me. Look at me in Atlanta, right? Yeah.

Isn't that exactly how it should happen? Sure. Run a jet sweep. All right. So I'm sorry. Is he a receiver or is he a running back? Do you think they're winning or? The who?

The Falcons against? No, no, no. The Vikings, the Packers. I picked him to lose by one. I picked 24-23. I went 27-24 Packers. Yeah. Close.

Okay. There was one other thing that I want to ask. Sorry. I was making weird noises and singing metal and everything else instead of asking this question. You've been here since 2017. What's your favorite Vikings-Packers game that you covered? Honestly, I'll say Week 2, 2018.

That's probably my favorite one because nobody on the team knew that the games could end in a tie. Stacey Coley didn't know the rules of special teams. Yeah, that's right. Daniel Carlson missed three kicks. The refs didn't know what a roughing the passer was. And Kirk actually played a decently good game that game. 425 yards.

Yeah, probably that one because I just remember leaving Green Bay being like, what the hell did I just watch? I remember the people walking out didn't know what the hell they just watched. Because that was the first year where they changed the overtime rules. And I remember players were like, huh? It's only 10 minutes. I mean, I've never thought to make anything of this, but was it a mistake to cut Daniel Carlson there, you think?

I mean, we can hindsight that all we want, yes. but I also think it was a mistake to commit psychological warfare on in week three of the preseason that's right what the f do I know that's right not the first time that that's happened so anyway well we'll have fun covering this on Sunday thank you for your time and your well done pie chart I mean it didn't screw it up at all. For a second there, I was like, wait, is that 105%? No. No, it's 100. I had a calculator on my computer. Nailed it.

Getting better and better every week. So thank you for your time as always. And we will do it again.