Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - ESPN's Kevin Seifert gives odds on J.J. McCarthy starting Week 1 2025

Episode Date: February 20, 2025

Once again the Vikings enter an offseason with a looming quarterback question hanging over the franchise. Matthew Coller is joined by ESPN's Kevin Seifert to discuss the team's QB situation and the likelihood that J.J. McCarthy is the starter for the Vikings come Week 1 of the 2025 season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me on the show, ESPN's Kevin Seifer. Kevin, we've got an exciting couple of weeks on the way here of Vikings football where let me just take a look at their roster. Oh yeah, there's not a lot of people. Yeah. I was just telling somebody that somebody asked like, uh, when my bosses in, in, in Bristol asks us, do you think it's going to be a busy off season free agency wise? And I'm like, it's just the math tells you it's going to be busy. Like, I don't know if that means high price, high profile, low profile, you know, mixture of what, but just the math, uh, to get to the roster limit of 90, uh, is going to

be pretty significant. That, uh, UDFA market is going to be really hot after the draft. Yeah. Uh, so I got a lot to ask you, but I think the best place to start is with Sam Darnold in the franchise tag, the tag window is open. And I have been talking about this as if i don't know how you don't tag him because there has to be teams that want to trade for sam darnold and i also see other folks saying no it doesn't make a lot of sense to tag him so where do we stand on that and the transition tag is another potential option here. What's your feeling on the tag? I think right now, everything, you know, they're just kind of sitting tight.

And I think the next step will be to determine if a trade market would materialize. And that's tough to do right now, but it only takes a couple of teams that really hope that they can get him signed in free agency to create a market that would make you franchise him and then tag him, even if it's just to get one draft pick. I was looking back at the Matt Castle trade in 2009 when the Patriots tagged Matt Castle as a quarterback and sent him to the Chiefs. I think it was for a second round pick, but they also included Mike Vrabel in that trade. So it was Vrabel and Castle for a second round pick. So I don't know exactly what the market would be, but just to get something is better than the potential of a compensatory pick in a couple of years. And so I think right now they're just in a holding pattern to see

to what extent there'll be a trade market. And if there is, it makes a lot of sense to do it. And assuming that, I mean, it's a tough deal for the player in the sense that you don't get to get in free agency and you don't get to pick your team and you might have to end up playing on the franchise tag if you can't get a contract agreement. But my guess is that the teams that would be interested in doing that, there would be at least one where Sam Darnold would feel pretty good about going to. And so

I don't know the extent to which that they would try to take care of him in that situation or could take care of him, but that's the consideration as well. So, but the idea to be extra long-winded, the idea of just franchising him because you can't let him leave because you have to have him back next year, I'm not sure that that's the direction

that they're feeling at this moment. Yeah, I mean, I think if we were ranking all the potential outcomes, what would be best and worst for the Vikings? Playing Sam Darnold on a $41 million franchise tag is probably the worst. You could still go through this again next year and tag and trade him or whatever, but that makes it more restrictive for them and would hurt them in the future because all these free agents that they have to sign, they're going to have to set up all those contracts to hit later. And that's presumably when JJ McCarthy would be playing later on. But let's talk about the transition tag though,

because when that came up, I was a little surprised to see it because the transition tag is just not used very often, but the idea would be to let Sam Darnold go out, get his offers. And then the Vikings would judge after that, whether they want to match an offer or not. I think if they use the transition tag, that would be a tell to us that they at least somewhat want Sam Darnold back only at their price that they would be okay with matching. Does that make sense? Yeah. Yeah. Like they, there's a lot of times in free agency and you saw this on the hard knocks with, with Saquon Barkley and the giants where they say, you know what, go, go see what you're worth.

Go find, you know, and then let us know, you know, give us a shot. And the transition tag basically requires the player to give them a shot. Sometimes they do anyway, sometimes they don't. And that, and really the function of the transition tag is just to force the player to, you know, to do that. And so I don't think there'd be any, you know, the harm I guess would be like,

if nobody makes an offer and then you're, offer and then do you rescind or whatever. But it would be a way of if they felt like he was overpricing himself. And if they wanted him back, first of all, to be their starter next year, to go along with JJ McCarthy. And they felt like the value that he was seeking was way out of line with the market or something they didn't want to pay. And they weren't sure if he would get that on the market. That would be the strategy to do it. It's not a terrible strategy. There's minimal harm there.

But I think that it gets back to that central question of is, do they want him to be their starter next year or not? And we have not gotten that answer publicly, I don't think. And privately, I think that there's not a lot, like to me, if they really wanted him back and maybe they don't want to tip their hand in negotiations, but there would have been less neutral talk about him publicly even now than there has been. And so, um, you know, it's really hard to say, you know, with facts behind you that the Vikings really want Sam Darnold to be their starter next year at this point. Right. I always think that, uh, when it comes to any of these things, trying to read the room with this team is a little bit difficult because Kevin O'Connell is always going to praise and he should with Kirk cousins. We went through this same thing

trying to figure out, well, are they really going to bring back Kirk? I mean, we all thought they were going to draft a quarterback, but are they going to try to use Kirk as their bridge? And then even with Justin Jefferson negotiations, when are they getting done? And then one day it's just done kind of out of nowhere. And I feel like that's been the case with just about everything. And there isn't a lot of insider information that we could go, okay, well, they're clearly giving it to this person or they're clearly giving it to that person and instead we all just kind of sit on pins and needles but you're right if you're trying to read the tea leaves there's no quote you can go to and say oh wow ko c definitely wants darnell back but you also listen to that interview with jj mccarthy that he did with rich eyes and you go it certainly doesn't sound like they've told him he's qb1 either. And then it makes you wonder, are they still figuring this out based on price? Because that's kind of what it came down to with Kirk cousins. But I don't think they will tell JJ that even if Darnold leaves,

like, I don't think that they want to, like, I don't think that they have any concerns about him per se, but like the guy didn't do anything last year, at least on the field. Um, he's got a lot of, still has a lot of work to do to get his body back and all that sort of thing from the, from the various, uh, injuries that he had, the injury that he had last year and

the surgery and then the shot that he received after that. So, um, I, I think it would be pretty premature and maybe presumptuous to say that the that Sam Darnall walks out the door, OK, JJ, you're our guy, because I don't think that they will even think that necessarily, because whether it's Daniel Jones or somebody else like that, I think they have to pair him with somebody like that. And they're really not going to know anytime soon if JJ is ready to beat that guy out or if they need to put him on a longer timetable just to get him back physically. So the way JJ was talking in that Eisen interview where he said, I just hope for a fair shot and there's things above my pay grade and all that, I think that's true. And I think that would be true even the day that, that if, if, and when Sam walks out

the door and, um, that doesn't mean that we all, you know, we'll be completely clueless in terms of where it's going to eventually go. He's eventually going to be the starter, but, um, I would think they'd want him to earn that and show them that he's ready. Uh, and no matter how well he was doing at the end of training camp last year, it's a big leap to then project it into, you know, after an eight or nine month gap there. So, you know, the way I would assume it would play out is they would have him and a veteran and just let him go at it. And I don't know if it would be a straight competition or how it would go,

but there certainly, I don't think, would be any public acknowledgement as camp opened or something that jj mccarthy is qb1 i think it depends on who that is i mean if daniel jones was his backup then it would feel like much more of a competition between the two yeah if it's andy dalton or something then jj mccarthy is very clearly the starting quarterback we know it won't be andy dalton because i think he just did a new contract the other day. But a player like that, and I see that. And I would argue that if it's an Andy Dalton-type guy

that they sign, then that would be going out on a limb, I think, especially in an organization where the ownership makes clear that we don't take steps back. We expect to compete every year. That's why they paid $10 million for Sam Darnold last year, even as they were anticipating a top-ten pick, which is what happened. So maybe at this point you trust Kevin O'Connell

with whatever quarterback that they choose and that they can win games with whichever quarterback he chooses to pair with him. But I don't think that they would want to like, I mean, like that, that would be going out on a limb, I think to, to pair him with a quarterback at that level. I don't know about you guys, but I tend to have an impulse buy problem. I'm always signing up for stuff and then forgetting about it. And then I ended up getting charged month after month. Well, it turns out that I am not alone. In fact, I just learned that 85% of people have at least one paid subscription going unused each month. Thanks to rocket money though. I now

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in pittsburgh uh andrew filiponi who's a host out there said that there might be some interest in daniel jones from the steelers and when i start trying to play the musical chairs game and go, okay, this quarterback goes there, this quarterback goes there. I think Daniel Jones ends up being one of the top five best options for these teams that don't have a quarterback league. Would you rather have Daniel Jones as a reclamation project or Kirk cousins who probably can't play football anymore? I mean, right. So I'm having a tough time seeing Daniel Jones saying, I'll come back and compete with their darling that they drafted 10th overall. When I could go start for the Steelers or the Browns or some other team that's going to get left out of that party.

So then you end up with what is McCarthy competing with Mac Jones? Is he competing with, I mean, you're, you're going a level down from somebody who's probably just not a starter almost automatically. Right. Yeah. Um, and I've thought about that as well. Like we've all just assumed that it's either going to be Darnold or Daniel Jones, and there's no, um, there's certainly no, nothing forcing Daniel Jones to do that. Um, and that maybe if they, if it ends up being him, then that gives you a signal that they don't know that they feel confident that McCarthy's ready, at least on day one. And if it becomes a situation where Daniel Jones plays as well as Sam Darnold, a lot worse problems than that. He's also been a guy that's gotten hurt some, too.

So you have to take that into consideration as well. But I've thought about that. Like, what if, what if it's not like, why, why are we just assuming that, that the Vikings can give him the best opportunity and maybe you could step back as a friend of Daniel Jones or, and or a career advisor of Daniel Jones and saying, look, man, you know, like that was a rough deal in New York. That was, you know, like you can see what happens when a rough deal in New York. That was, you know, like you can see

what happens when you're playing in an organization that's not fully functioning or not firing on all cylinders, at least offensively. You know, Pittsburgh's run through a lot of guys. Like, are we sure that Pittsburgh is going to be a place that you can start writing the second chapter of your career? Are you sure that whatever other place that could be, that that's where you can start writing that? Or do you need to do what Sam Darnold did and take a year to step back? And that's a tough pill to swallow. And it's a short-term loss potentially for a longer-term gain if he plays a little bit for them next year or is just the backup on a team that's now considered to be in an upper echelon quarterback place, no different than if he was a backup for the Rams or a backup for the 49ers or what have you and then then try to leverage his career after that it's a tough it's a tough pill to swallow and I don't know that he would want to do that but that would be the argument for for him no it certainly would and it has worked for some other quarterbacks

including Sam Darnold at the same time and I do wonder if Carson Wentz ends up back in the conversation for some team after trying the same thing with Kansas City at the same time, if Pittsburgh comes calling and they have what, uh, 75 straight seasons of winning records, I mean, you're probably competing for a playoff spot if you're Daniel Jones. And if you go there on a one-year contract, make the playoffs look pretty decent, then someone else might sign you up to a multi-year contract. I think that's probably going to be better for him. But if Pittsburgh isn't calling and it's Cleveland, then maybe you don't want to do that for Cleveland because you could just end up

ruining your reputation. So that is a delicate dance for Daniel Jones. But other than Daniel Jones, I don't see a ton of great options for that QB two position where I would say, Oh yeah, well, it's fine. If that guy starts, it's probably fine. If Daniel Jones starts the first five weeks of the season, it's not fine. If it's Mac Jones, it's gotta be the right Jones. I think now let me, let me circle back though, to the Darnold scenario, because I keep thinking about Kevin O'Connell and what he would want and I can really talk myself into either way I mean he won 14 games with Sam Darnold they built a relationship over a long period of time this season and also down the stretch

Sam Darnold did a lot of incredible things for this team to even bail out some play calls where he throws the game-winning touchdown in Seattle in Seattle beats Kirk cousins and has the five touchdown game beats the green Bay Packers. Like a lot of good things happened over this season. And when you set the bar as high as it is, remember the last time they won 13 games, they dropped down to seven and the Wilfs were like, yeah, no excuses. Yeah.

And we, yeah, we were sitting at that table with Mark Wilf when you asked him like, Hey, like, is there some grace here? And they're like, no, which seems funny now that they won 14 games. And we were asking that question, but they did not extend him. Like it tells you their mentality. And I guess even with the contract extension i still wonder about that from the head coach of do i really want to risk this right now do i want to have a bigger sample right now but i could also look at it and go sam darnold melted down in the last two games

time to move on mccarthy was almost ready to be the starter last year so why can't he do it again yeah and i'm almost like, like, I know we put it, we're putting it on the owners that they don't accept excuses, but I also, um, if I, you know, I could envision a scenario where ownership would say, look, you know, we just gave you the contract extension that you wanted. Uh, we did it within days of the end of the season. We, we made it our top priority and we're doing it in part because you're really good with quarterbacks. And so now the first thing I have to do as an owner, after giving you a contract extension based in large part on your work with quarterbacks is now pay a

quarterback, uh, you know, 40 million a year. Uh, while I have his eventual successor already there and healthy and ready to go, like, you know, that you could see where an owner would say, you know, I don't know that we need to do both of those things. You know, now I just paid you now go do what I paid you to do and make the next guy really good. And so, you know, you could you can envision it a lot of ways. Like, I don't think the Wilfs dictate things to that extent, but you know, any person who's worked in a place where you're not the boss and there's a boss, you know, you try to feel out what they're comfortable with, what they want, what they don't want, what you'd be going out on a limb by pushing for and what you wouldn't be. And so I could see where, where Kevin O'Connell is like, I put a lot of work into Sam Darnold.

Like our whole building put a lot of work into him. Josh McCown did. Our players put a lot of work into getting used to him. And like now we're, you know, for what, you know, it's all, that was for last year. And now there's like no future. Is there really going to be no future benefits from that at all? And so I could see where he would, that would go through his mind a lot. But it's, you know, the other part of that would be like, are we sure that, are we sure that that's, you know, that's, that's the way to go there. And so I don't know, like, I could see it a lot of different ways. But there's, there's, as we just to circle back to what we said from the beginning, like, I think

we have not gotten any indications that they're, they have decided that this is the guy they want to be their starter. And so until we get that, that feeling, it's hard to imagine that, that, that, that, that that's where they're going. I think if JJ McCarthy had been on the field working out maybe in early December and he hadn't had the second procedure and he hadn't had the weight loss thing that was so apparent on TV and apparent to us when we would see him around the facility that it would be so much easier to just say, all right, well, this is an easy decision and thanks for the memories and off you go. And the other part of it too, for me is just the lack of college experience for JJ McCarthy, because if this was a Jaden Daniels or a Michael Penix, I would just

say, all right, well, off you go. But when we're talking about somebody that when he came out in the draft, Kevin O'Connell basically looked us in the the face and said don't you dare push for jj to start before i determine he's ready we're like sorry okay okay yeah you know we're not going to start a quarterback controversy not just yet maybe eventually but that whole approach to him from o'connell being we want to be as careful as possible. And his quote, that'll go in his eventual book someday, you know, teams fail quarterbacks, more than quarterbacks fail teams that rings in my head a lot. Otherwise I think I would be saying like, this is a pretty easy decision because of the cap benefits and the fact that, you know, we probably saw the best

ever version of Sam Darnold. And I also wrote a piece about how this was a strange year because there were 10 teams with five wins or fewer and the Vikings played a lot of them and got a lot of free wins this year. A lot of pumped up statistics for certain people. Probably- It was all a mirage. Okay, it was all a mirage.

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is when you play the AFC South and you go 4-0, that has to be factored in that that's going to be hard to repeat for Sam Darnold to have that type of season and for the Vikings. So normally I would just say, okay, stick to the plan. Like this is what we wanted all along the, some of us who pushed for them to move on from Kirk cousins. This was the reason I just don't know how I'm supposed to weigh those other factors with JJ McCarthy. Yeah. And it's, when you said that, I almost like put it out of my head that like,

that like last May and June, like all we were hearing about was the idea that, that Sam Darnold was there primarily to make sure they didn't have to play J.J. McCarthy until he was ready. And so maybe that's the way we need to think about this going into year two with J.J., is that whoever they pair with him, they need that person to be good enough to give them credible enough performances until they decide that J.J JJ was ready. I also think that by the end of training camp last year that they hadn't necessarily decided he was ready for week one, but they felt pretty strongly that he was a lot closer to being ready than he potentially might have. They might have thought the day after they drafted him. And so the gap from, I think, from at least a mental standpoint, he did not have to, he did not have far to go to get to that point. And so we'll never know. But like, based on what we were hearing towards the very end of that stretch, you know, would have been really interesting if maybe around the Jets game or somewhere around there would, would J.J. McCarthy have been starting to get first team snaps in practice? And where would that have gone at that point? So long story short, like I don't think that they're in that mindset right now of like being worried about putting him out there too early because they almost they thought he was almost ready almost a full year ago but so it really becomes more of a physical thing like does he get his body back and there's every reason to think that he does um and you know does he stay healthy and the knee doesn't have any more issues and um that sort of thing i I think, and I feel pretty strongly about believing this, that they are not

as worried about ruining him by putting him out too early as they were before they saw anything from him over the course of the summer. Right. Yeah. There's no question about that. I mean, they couldn't have been higher on his training camp as a whole. And what was most impressive to me was that in OTAs and mini camp, we were going, this kid's going to need a ton of work. And then he stays in Minnesota, works his butt off. And that's the thing about, you know, putting on the weight and getting back into shape is that we know that he's going to be here. And we know that he's going to put in the work and the effort to make that happen because we've already seen him do it. And then he comes to training camp and three weeks into camp,

we're going, okay, wow. I mean, he's really running the offense. He's scoring on two minutes. They're putting them out against the number one defense and he's not really struggling that much against them. There was a lot of impressive stuff that happened that was confirmed in the preseason game. The preseason game would have meant nothing to me if he had been bad in practice, but it was exactly what it looked like in practice. So all of that is, I think has to be factored into their trust of starting him, but then they're the only ones with the medical reports. And that also is difficult for us to then figure out like, does he, is he back to a hundred percent?

Do they think he could get back, get back to a hundred percent? I still, right now I'm leaning toward JJ McCarthy is the quarterback starting in week one, but do you want to put odds on it, a percentage on it? Like how heavily are you leaning in that direction? 51%. Oh really? Okay. um 51 oh really okay wow is that is that too high or too low or what so does that include all other quarterbacks though that includes daniel jones that includes yeah oh okay yeah so i i think so and so it would be higher if i didn't think there was a a decent chance that they'd be signing a Daniel Jones type person. You know, if they're, if they're signing an Andy Dalton type person, then, then it would be higher than that. But I think there's a, there's at least a chance that they're going to sign somebody who that's going to make us feel like, like they are not looking to start JJ in week one. And so we'll

see. But of all the possibilities, I think he has the highest percentage of being the, you know, but I guess I'm being conservative in, in, in not giving it too high of percentage. Maybe I should have framed it as the chances that Sam Darnold are back because now after their press conference, I think with Kwesi D'Affolmensa, I think I said to you in the media room, this situation's a little complicated. I think you said to me, I think he's just gone. So is that change at all, though, from your attitude? No, no. I still think that if I had to guess what's going to happen, that the likeliest scenario is Darnell walks out of the door, whether it's via franchise trade or whatever.

And then somebody else is paired with J.J. McCarthy, which accelerates McCarthy's timetable, obviously, but without knowing whether and without having a good feeling about whether it would be a good sense right now about whether it'll be a Daniel Jones type or somebody on that next level that you talked about. That's why I'm not giving it a higher percentage that it's McCarthy because there's a, if it's Daniel Jones that they bring back, it's a good chance. It's him. But I, like, I still think that like in the pecking order of who the likeliest guy is to start in week one, I think it's, it's JJ. Okay. One more question on this. that's your your guess your estimate and the whole scenario but what do you think is the best idea like what do you think is the best plan for them for next year do you think

that it would be having darnold back and playing it slow with JJ McCarthy. I may be, I feel like I'm alone on an Island of people who don't think that that's a terrible thing to happen to the franchise. But do you think it's the best idea to just go with McCarthy and put it in the past? I think, I think like to me, like the best idea and this is, you know, without all the information, because as you mentioned, the Vikings have some of the medical stuff and all that. I would just be really, and part of it is just what's your risk, willingness to be risk averse or to take risks. Going

into a season all in with a guy who threw 10 passes as a college quarterback and missed this entire, you know, became the first quarterback in the modern draft era, which goes back to 67, to be a first round pick and missed the whole year because of injury. Like there's no precedent for somebody making up the amount of time, practice,ice time that J.J. McCarthy has had that we can look back to and saying, oh, this is how it goes or this is how it sets you back. Like, so I think like there's definitely like for my level of risk management, like that's a lot of risk to just go all in with him. So, but I think like that's, you do what it takes to get, you know, Daniel

Jones, even if that means that you tell him that like, you know, you'll have, you'll, you'll start training camp as QB one. And if it comes to be that McCarthy is just better, it's obvious to everybody on the field that he's better than you have Daniel Jones as your backup. And that gives you a pretty good one, two punch. If JJ falters or if he gets hurt. And that's the other thing is like, you know, just as we, as we did learn two years ago, if your starting quarterback gets hurt, that's not, you don't get the grace in this organization and that's fine. Like they're, they're on the record with that. There's no confusion about it. And so the next guy has to be somebody you feel confident you can win with.

And the guys that they had two years ago, um, it was, you know, they did not win many of those games and some of them were directly because of quarterback play. Um, so that, that would be like what I think is the best overall idea from team overall idea from a team building standpoint for the short and the long term. But we'll see if they agree or not. I have a unrealistic best scenario, which would be that they signed Arnold to a three-year deal where the first year's cap hit is $8 million or $7 million like Baker Mayfield's was last year. And then they have them compete in camp. And if JJ McCarthy wins that job, then they trade Sam Darnold to a team that needs a quarterback, which is a hard timeline to work on because other teams will have been doing their training camps and preparing with their quarterbacks. But some quarterback always

gets hurt around the NFL. And then he would have a multi-year contract. It would be the Sam Bradford situation where he gets beat out by Carson Wentz. They trade Bradford to the Vikings. Someone's quarterback will definitely get hurt or they will be so wildly unimpressed in camp that they'll want to trade for Darnold

and he would have a really tradable contract. And the other way, if it doesn't work out with McCarthy and he's behind physically, they could play Sam Darnold very cheap, still do all the other stuff in the off season that they want to do, and then trade him after next year because he's under a contract. But that would have him agreeing to a contract. And that's the hard part. That's where maybe the transition tag would have to come in. And I also think that if someone was willing to pay Kirk Cousins 45 million on the open market after an Achilles injury and one playoff win his entire career, someone's also got to be willing

to pay Sam Darnold. So I don't think that's that realistic. Plus you have to pay signing bonus money and things like that. And that's a lot of cash to hand out for the wilfs to try to mess with this contract so it's not very realistic but i also think that it kind of splits the difference that if mccarthy's ready to go you just go with him and you're not taking on a big cap hit for next year with sam darnold i i just think that the idea of bringing back the guy who was your starter last year, won 14 games, clearly deserves to be a starter somewhere in the league this year, and telling him, welcome back, now go compete with the guy that we want to win the job.

The level of, I've been calling that awkward like the like it's it's like that's that's bad vibes team building you know like and people like Sam Darnold and like they're they're if he was okay with that then like what level of comp you know competitive juice does he have like I can't imagine any player would want that um it all of like, you know, and again, it's a business and like they have the right to do exactly what you said, you know, whether it's via, even if it's like a franchise or transition tag to bring them back. But, and they have the, like there's no rule

that says they can't mislead him by, you know, either because that's happened before, but like, this is the way they built this organization and the way that that's led to success. That would be a, certainly a diversion from, from the way they've done it. But I just think like that first day of training camp, like watching the guy who won 14 games, you know, and it's not like, like demeaning, but it's just like,

well, maybe it would be demeaning to have him have to, you know, share with a guy who had not done anything other than been the number 10 overall pick of the draft before. And so it, it makes sense on paper and it makes sense. You know, if you have a certain edge about you and the way you build a team. But like, I just it's hard for me to imagine that that working and not having collateral damage. That's exactly why I called it unrealistic. The other factors make it not make sense, even though it does make sense. So let me ask you about the rest of the roster here. I want you to name me five free agents at each position.

No, I'm just kidding. But the big question every year when someone wins the Super Bowl is how far is your franchise away from competing with that team? Now, by regular season record, the answer was, well, they were right there with the Philadelphia Eagles. But then we all watched the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. And I think we probably had the same reaction. Not so much right. That the Vikings in my mind had the high end things to match up with the Eagles, the elite receiver. If they're as I was healthy, they, the, the

Jonathan Grenard, the Andrew Van Ginkle, the Blake Cashman. They've got those players. But I think it's the holes in the roster that became super apparent when they played the Los Angeles Rams. How good can they get? Like, let's just assume that they could do whatever they want cap wise. Kweisi Adafo-Mento worked for three years and Rob Brzezinski for three years to get this cap to where they had oodles of cap space and into the future as well. And so they can sign whoever they want. They've got the culture, the NFL PA rating,

all those things, even with the free agency and the lack of draft picks, how close can they get to a complete roster through free agency? Because they do have a lot to do here. Not as close as they need to. Whatever that ends up meaning. And I've been pounding the table on this for a while. Especially if you want to look at the Eagles and say, what's the big difference? The big difference is they have drafted very well on both lines. The guys that were making differences in their lines,

and there are some free agents as well, like a Makai Becton, but the center, the guard, obviously Lane Johnson, the interior defensive tackles, that's where you get those guys. And if somebody like that becomes available in free agency, they can afford it, but you're going to massively overpay for that, or at least overpay relative to what you would get him if you drafted him and then convinced him to sign an extension before he hit free agency, which usually happens.

Maybe Milton Williams, the Eagles an extension before he hit free agency, which usually happens. And so, um, you know, maybe Milton Williams is, you know, the Eagles defensive tackles available, maybe Trey Smith, the chief's guard is available and they can sign those type of players. But like, like, especially at, at positions like, you know, interior offensive line and interior defensive line, it has to come from the draft. It doesn't have to come from the first round necessarily, but when teams draft those guys and hit on them, they don't usually let them go. To me, that's the difference between the Vikings and the Eagles and the Eagles and a lot of teams.

It's just the strength and the Eagles and the Eagles and a lot of teams. Like it's just like the strength and the, and the, the amount of effort and time that they took to build those two lines, uh, out through the draft. And so, uh, you know, they're on the right track in terms of Kevin O'Connell acknowledging they need to get better at the, in the inside. Um, and while I think they have some good pieces on the defensive line, it's very obvious they don't have the playmaker type. And I always want to say the Aaron Donald type. There's only one of those guys. But just like somebody who's Kevin Williams, the Vikings have a long history of those kind of players,

John Randall, Kevin Williams, like people who single-handedly disrupt. They just don't have, and that's not an insult to anybody that they do have. They just don't have that type of player. And Brian Flores has been able to scheme around it. But I, you know, they tried to sign Christian Wilkins last year, I think to be a type of defensive player like that. So I don't have a ton of confidence that they'll be able to,

I think they'll find players that will fit what they're doing, but like the idea that they could just use all this cap money and go out and sign all the, you know, sign better players at all the positions they need to sign players at. It's just not realistic. Right. I think you would have to land the top player at each position for all the positions of need. And I follow a lot of other writers around the league. I know you do. And it's like, I don't know how many teams I've seen. Oh, so dig a zoo. His name come up. Oh, you know, our team could really use him and Milton Williams and Trey Smith. Uh, I'm a little wary of Trey Smith just because of where he comes from Kansas city. Uh, They got rid of the ball really

quickly. I know he's a good player, but I think he's going to reset that market. And that to me is a little scary of putting 20 something million into one guard and then asking him to be the complete difference when it's usually about the weak links. The other trouble is that they've drafted some guys that they wanted to develop. Ed Ingram is one of them. It never worked out. They draft Michael Juergens last year, an undersized center that probably wouldn't have the same issues as Garrett Bradbury.

They need to find real dudes here, not developmental projects, not moving a tackle to guard and then just hoping and praying, not bringing in Jesse Davis to compete with somebody. They need real players. But I do think that they can get to, you're not going to match the Eagles on either one of those spots, but because they do have elite players at edge rusher at wide receiver at offensive tackle, like it's a good start to shore up the weaknesses with the amount of cap space because they haven't

had this amount to put into it so if you're talking about a kevin zeitler a brandon sheriff or i mean there's a number of other guys that are solid at these positions i think even being above average as a line in the interior and then having those elite tackles overall you can have a top five top seven offensive line it was really this year about once derisaw gets hurt we also saw brandles play regress and then it all sort of comes apart when you have to play against a great team but i don't think they're crazy crazy far away from that even if they don't spend on the biggest guys. I want to know your opinion on three players that I think are as beloved in the organization as anybody that you and I have covered here in the last few years who are free agents and also set to potentially get overpaid.

That's Aaron Jones, Cam Bynum, and Byron Murphy Jr. I wrote about this today. How much is chemistry worth? How much is character worth? How much is character worth? How much is continuity worth? Because if you put on paper Cam Bynum, Byron Murphy Jr., and Aaron Jones against the other free agents, against even a Najee Harris or Rico Dowdle, younger players with less mileage, less injury history, or you go to corner and match up Byron Murphy with some other corners based on his whole history, not just an excellent year. Bynum was pretty good this year. Great dances, great guy

in the locker room, but I don't know how much that's worth in comparison to other players that I match up stats for stats and go, this guy's got, this guy's got better numbers or, or Rico Dowdle has one year of a similar season but he's 26 yeah and he has no mileage right how do you factor the the love of those players with the black and white of it that if you're paying byron murphy jr 18 million dollars that's just a ton for somebody like him yeah and i And I guess there's two different categories there. Like Aaron Jones, I think like I could be wrong, but like, is there, are we sure that Aaron Jones is going to make a lot of money on free agency

this year? You know, Kevin O'Connell was talking about him at the super bowl about how he wants him back and reminding everyone. And I went back and looked and they did, we're talking about this, about how he's always been in a committee type system. And they've given Ty Chandler two straight years of having a chance to do that and it hasn't worked out. And so they've had to go out and get cam makers each time. And so I do believe O'Connell that he would like Aaron Jones back as part of a committee. And that might be a pretty good gig for Aaron at this point in his career. You know,

he, he just got, he, this is only the second time I think that he played on every game of a season and he definitely nursed a lot of injuries and was not as, did not have as much juice at the end of the year that he did at the beginning. And so like, I think there's a lot to be said for him taking like a, you know, 20 or 30% snap reduction in exchange for more production, you know, more production over the course of a season if he's truly in a committee type thing. But I also think like this is the, this draft is, I guess, is extremely deep in running backs.

And so to maybe pair him with a rookie would seem like a pretty good idea if they could get him for, you know, somewhat less than good idea if they could get him for you know somewhat less than the seven million that they paid him last year so i and and he it's a plus that in his particular case that he had like there he was you know well loved and and well regarded and everybody thought he was great and he was and so i think there's there's something to be said for bringing him back at as long as he's fully aware that it's not going to be to carry it 250 times, which my guess is he would be okay with that if he put him on a lie detector test. value the positions they play. Is Byron Murphy one of the top five cornerbacks in the league? I don't know if that's the case. He had the best year of his career last year. He's still very young, and they need somebody

to play those spots. I feel like that should be a priority. I know they did the accounting maneuver that will prevent him from being franchise tagged, but I thought that was at least in the realm of possibility of franchising him to keep him around. My guess is that he'll be pretty I think he likes playing in Minnesota, but I don't know that he has the connection that some of the other players feel with it. I think he'll be looking for the best offer and that I think he'll be looking for the top, the best offer,

and that's where he'll sign. But I think they need to give that some serious thought about, you know, because they're going to not only, you know, and I know people say they need multiple cornerbacks. They can't spend all their money on one, but they, you know, if you're spreading out your money on multiple cornerbacks, then maybe they're not going to be very good. You know that you need a good one to combine them.

Like, I think it's been a tough one because like there is, you know, there's I mean, it's been rare when you've had a player who's been that, you know, as as vibey as Cam as Cam Bynum is, I don't know what the other word would be like super, uh, you know, friendly guy in the organization, you know, does everything they ask for him, you know, in the community and does his own stuff in the community too. And, um, is kind of a, become a quasi celebrity as, you know, in the, with the dancing and celebrations and all that, and certainly held his own as a player. Um, but you know you know i i would think that like you know and some of it will depend on what harrison smith eventually hopefully though in there for their sake they'll get an idea of what harrison smith is doing before they have to make a decision on cam by them because replacing both safeties in one year like that's a

lot but um you know i i don't know if you even with all the free agent money you have if you can spend the premium money to to keep cam buying them and so um i guess that's kind of where i fall on those three guys well and you have the top safety out there javon holland was drafted by brian flores and you could see, I mean, he dipped into the Andrew Van Ginkle and some of the other players he was familiar with, Stephon Gilmore, that worked out pretty well for him in the past. And Holland is a difference maker. And I think with Cam Bynum,

there's so many subtleties to love about him. He's a good tackler when he has to come up and make a play. I think he's in the right position all the time, which is hugely valuable. He is available all the time. He is never hurt. And I think that's also a big factor when you're paying somebody, but there's just a number when you start to get to 15 million, where you go, that's gotta be a game changer to me to be paying him that much. But as you mentioned, all that other stuff does matter how he relates to his teammates and just the type of person he is. It's the devil, you know, like he's not a devil at all.

He's a wonderful person. You realize that you bring in somebody else and you go, you know, maybe it's not quite the same as far as being in the locker room. And I think that no team thinks about this more than the Vikings for this sort of delicate environment of what they want, because it is part of their edge in this league is to have a group of people that really bond together and play for each other. So all of that, I think is a little bit tricky. Let me just ask you one more, which is in the draft, Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock had the Vikings taken Trav henderson the running back from ohio state have we gotten to a point kevin and you and i you know we come from an era where people

used to draft running backs the first round all the time sometimes even number one overall and then that stopped happening and then now it's kind of happening again. Is it a terrible idea for the Vikings to draft a first round running back? I mean, I know we mentioned a few minutes ago, this is a very deep draft. But again, they may not have another pick until the bottom of the third. What I think, and this is just my sense of like pivoting from the way they've been drafting the past few years like when they get to number 24 and if they don't if there's not a deal to move down that they like um they got to get a dynamic impact player there like that's what these drafts have been most bereft of is impact players and so if they think

that you know if they're if they're football they think that, you know, if they're, if they're football people think that, you know, an Ohio state running back is, is an impact player, someone who will change the outcome of games for them. Um, you know, I think, I think they had some interest in Jameer Gibbs a few years ago, if he had, you know, he got drafted way higher than anybody thought he would, but, know they it's not like i don't think that they are have like these analytical walls that exist you know maybe in some other buildings or people perceive that exists in this building because of quacey doflamence's background that says thou shalt not draft a running back in the first round but to me, like the focus of that pick, especially if, again, if

there's not a really good deal to move down, um, at that point is impact player. And if it's a running back, then I wouldn't criticize it. Yeah. That's a hard one for me because I've spent my entire life, uh, uh, studying football and analytics and everything else saying like, it's just really not a great idea to draft a running back in the first round and you think about even aaron jones was a fifth rounder there's plenty of third rounders who have become stars second rounders who have become stars and at the same time last year the vikings when aaron jones is on the field he faced an eight-man box 18 of the time and if you have somebody who can make people pay for that, and they did to some extent, but not really like if you can make somebody pay for playing those safeties in the

parking lot, because they're terrified of Justin Jefferson, I think you end up with kind of a Todd Gurley situation when he was great with the Rams, where every swing pass turns into 10 yards, every explosive play that you get from that type of talent. Travion Henderson is a special talent, but at the same time, what is the gap between him and the guy you could take in the third round? If it's Caleb Johnson or Cam Scadabo, what is really the gap between those guys? I think at every other position, we would say the gap is huge between the first rounder and the third rounder where running back i'm not as sure that it is but like if they're going to

win something it's going to be because they have an elite offense like that's just always going to be the case and brian flores could give them a top five defense having an elite offense is usually having everything yeah it's having a running game it's having having the deep passing, the short passing, the offensive guards. It's like you just have to have everything. And that's been the missing piece. And the problem is scarcity. Aaron Jones is the best option. It's probably not going to move the needle a ton.

You're talking about maybe the 15th best running back at this point. There's no other free agent to move the needle. How do you get a running game that makes people afraid of something else that isn't justin jefferson that would be to draft one high but i also i just can't ignore defensive tackle in this draft yeah i know we're early and you know combines coming up and everything but the dt's that i'm looking at here are freaks the beasts and like and that would be you know, I wouldn't argue with that either. Part of the decision-making at 24 would be like,

takes into context all the other players that are around it. I'm just saying, if their football people judged the running back to be somebody who could impact them, you know, maybe more than any other of the players that are available, then I wouldn't criticize it. But like if you're if you're mixing impact and need, then obviously defensive tackle comes up higher there. And they might get very fortunate that in a year when they could really use one that they'll that that and that's not a bad place to take one um uh you know in the bottom third of the first round if you're looking at just like positional value but like i like and maybe i'm just like overreaching my own concerns about the way they've drafted in the past few years and the impact it's going to have in the coming years um by just like focusing on impact.

It doesn't matter where, like, it just has to be a plus. Like you have to, like, it has, it has to hit, you know, whatever, whatever position it's going to be. And that's how, you know, like some of the good teams are built is like, just kind of like not, you know, not using the draft to, to fill particular holes and then retroactively creating the value for that player to do that. But it's like, just who are the, who are the good players and how do I get them? Okay. Normally in the regular season, when I know you're busy,

I would get you off the, you know, like get you in and out here, but I know you're not doing anything and it's freezing outside. So let me ask, let me throw one more thing at you, which is just, I'm going to charge overtime for this one. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. This is worth like two appearances in the off season. Um, what's your favorite like NFL off season storyline? Cause I think a lot of them that have shown themselves early here, I don't know how they're going to play out. Like is Matthew Stafford really going to get traded? Some people think he is.

I don't know why he would want to do that for a team that was just where they were, you know, one drive away from being in the NFC championship. The miles Garrett thing is weird. Cause it's not beneficial to the Browns to trade him unless they signed to a new contract and then trade him or something. Even Cooper cup,

he probably just gets cut and signs with the Patriots or something. Right. Like so far, I'm not drawn. T Higgins is going to be a Bengal somehow. Yeah. Is there something that for you, you kind of can't wait to figure out how it plays out.

Aaron Rogers to me. And we, you talked about Daniel Jones in Pittsburgh and like Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh wouldn't be a terrible thought either. And certainly if there's any coach in the NFL who would be comfortable with, I think one of Mike Tomlin's great strengths

is being able to manage all kinds of different people. And you see some of the people that were in Pittsburgh and were relatively on the straight and narrow. And then you see what they became after that, that when they went elsewhere, it's notable. And so, I mean, this guy is one of the best players in the history of football. You know, honestly, you know, certainly one of the best quarterbacks when he was in his prime and he was in his prime for a very long time. And he's already, you know, much older than most of those guys, you know, long before they retired. And so, like, is he done? Like, is it just going to be this unceremonious end that we've seen with some other players as well? You know, that went on to the Hall of Fame with the the last couple years so their careers were not uh worthy of much mention but like is he going to

go somewhere else and and you know will he take his whole entourage of of people and and um you know davante adams and uh and pat mcafee and and the rest or is he going to have to go, if he wants to keep playing, is he going to have to basically tone all that stuff down? If he does, like, how good will he be? To me, like, that's like, are we seeing the end of a career that has really been one of the through lines of the past, you know, 15, 16 years of, or almost 20 years of NFL football. And so that, I, and I don't think anybody knows. And that's the other thing is like, we can get, we can make reasonable guesses about all the things you were talking about. And there's, it's really at this very moment, like completely up in the air, whether he's ever going to play another, another down in the NFL

again. That just reminded me, that was why I texted you to come on the show yes you were trolling about the vikings and aaron rogers which you know the betting markets that they must know what they're doing to trick people because it was like the vikings have the third best odds to bet on getting aaron rogers like are you just what are you doing here why would they have the third are you just trying to fool some people like oh he's to do the same thing as farm did. I mean, that's at 0.0%. So it's not, I wouldn't put it like 0.0 because everything's possible because you, you just got done saying earlier in the podcast that there's nobody else besides Daniel Jones out there that, that can be a quarterback here. And so that's one of them.

Like you could make all kinds of very logical points about why it would not be a good idea. And I would probably agree with all of them, except for the fact that it would be really dang fun to cover if that was the case. I guess, I don't know. 2010 almost killed our friend Judd Zolgad. So I'm not sure that i am ready for

that kind of year if aaron rogers was to show up but you just hope it would be the 20 2009 year not the 2010 year uh if aaron rogers comes so based on his most recent performance uh yeah i don't know about that well anyway it should be a fascinating off season and we will definitely check in again pretty soon with you, Kevin, after we have decisions and players and contracts and everything to break down. But always good to catch up and hope you find some stuff to do inside. You know, I like to play chess. Yeah.

Maybe play some chess with the kid, you know, something like that. That's possible. It's possible. Uh, he's, he's, uh, he's moved on to, uh, I think there's a lot of electronic, uh, uh, games that the kids play these days and over the internet. And so, yeah. And so I, I I'm kind of looped out of those, but, um, well, we'll keep busy for sure. Spring is right around, around the corner. All right. Thanks so much, Kevin. I appreciate your time and we'll talk soon, man. Thanks. Okay. Thank you.