Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz attempts to project the Vikings' new RB room

Episode Date: June 12, 2023

Matthew Coller gets together with Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz to talk about what the exit of Dalvin Cook means for predicting the Vikings' backfield. Plus, how many catches will Jordan Addison have? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Oakley. Express yourself. Build a look that's made for you. When you wear Oakley, there really is more than meets the eye. Try it for yourself. Oakley is not only the best looking, but the best quality. So head on over to oakley.com for more information today. Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and rejoining the show for our annual summer. Let's try to project what all the Vikings players are going to do. Ian Harditz, formerly of PFF, now with Fantasy Life. Matthew Barry's Fantasy Life, which has taken off, Ian.

And I'm very happy to see your success there. Very cool for you. And, you know, we've got a lot to talk about. There's actually some players that we've got a lot to talk about. There's actually some players that we don't really know how to predict, and we're going to have to do some real intellectual fantasy work here to try to project the Minnesota Vikings in 2023. So what is up, man? How are you? Good time. Join the pod as always, man. Like you said, Andrew, what's the probably time? Three or four now? You come on my podcast a few times. Always a great day to be great. But yeah, with these Vikings, man,

and one of the stats I've been pulling out all summer, Vikings, Seahawks, and Lions, those are the only three top scoring, top 10 scoring offenses that also had a bottom 10 scoring defense last year. And when you get that recipe, you tend to get a lot of these shootouts back and forth. Did the Vikings do enough on offense to make up for,

you know, potentially having a better real-life defense this year? We'll find out, man, because at the end of the day, in Fantasyland at least, we want as many shootouts as possible, as bad a defense as possible, so we just get as much fantasy-friendly volume as possible. Well, if you've looked at the Vikings' schedule, there is a pretty good chance that there's going to be a lot of shootouts because they are playing all the teams that were in championship weekend last year. They're playing Mahomes. They're playing the Eagles again. I mean, there's a lot of good

quarterbacks on this schedule, and I think that's going to make overall for a more difficult season this year. But fantasy wise, that means that I think they're going to go into the fourth quarter needing to pass the ball still quite a bit. So I'll give you the choice. Do you want to talk about the very interesting running back situation or the very interesting wide receiver situation for the vikings first we can go running backs but real quick just one note on kirk cousins the you know stable qb three straight years matthew as the qb 12 and fantasy points per game that's just consistency right there i thought that was pretty impressive we got the uh you know dj more 1200 yards and four touchdowns like these just ridiculous statistical feats that end up happening time and time again so credit to kirk for keeping on keeping on man like i know he hasn't in terms

of the contract the vikings gave him the playoff success and throwing the ball three yards on you know fourth and nine and all that i understand we have quips there but just in terms of you know you don't need that many extra fingers uh outside of your two hands to count the number of quarterbacks better than Kirk so credit to him there let's talk some running backs though because my god man cannot go a day without hearing about this Dalvin Cook situation out here I know and when you look at Alexander Madison he has had such a small sample size of times where he's actually been the RB1 in games for the Vikings because him as a put him in for a couple of plays here or there, he really hasn't been all that successful as a rotational back and hasn't really

gotten many opportunities. But if you look at the games where he's a starter, he's routinely averaging four or five yards per carry and has been pretty successful. Clearly they like him because they decided to bring him back at a decent price for somebody that is unproven. But they also have this other stable of running backs, including Ty Chandler, Kenny Wong, who we talked about last offseason. Maybe we were just a year too early. And then they draft Dwayne McBride as well. From a fantasy perspective, how are you looking at Alexander Madison? Well, in the past, it hasn't quite been as easy

as scratching off Dalvin Cook's name and just putting Madison in there when Dalvin has missed time, usually with that shoulder injury. But it hasn't been that far removed, man, because at least, you know, before Kevin O'Connell got there, we unfortunately, not unfortunately,

I always want to see guys play 17 games, but we haven't seen an instance of Madison being the lead back under O'Connell. But previously to that, when he looked at it, man, six different times he got that spot start, six different times, he got that spot start in six different times. He was just getting force fed the ball, man. We had one bust in there when they got behind the first half.

And then we actually had at that point in time, Amir Abdullah coming in and taking the pass down work. But otherwise, man, just in terms of their weekly RB finish, fourth, seventh, sixth, eighth and 13th and five of those other games. So now he was getting force-fed the football here. Four of those games he had over 20 carries. And to your point, he was being a little bit more efficient with those. But, man, year one, year two, Alexander Madison was making a lot more out of those touches

than what we've seen from him over these past two years. I know yards per carry isn't a be-all, end-all staff for evaluating running backs. I really like it to start with a four at least, Matthew, and not Madison cannot say that over these past two seasons. So look, I think he's good. He's a very good quality running back. I mean,

my guy has been hurtling guys ever since his Boise state days, like maybe one of the best guys in the league at that. But looking at it now, man, you just start going down the list and Dalvin already, even before this stuff was kind of coming up, wasn't someone we were necessarily locking in the top 12. Cause one of the things O'Connell brought over last year

was that McVay just experience of, we're not going to throw the ball at these running backs. Last year, the Vikings ranked 27th in targets to the running backs, and the Rams ranked 32nd. So with Madison, again, assuming Dalvin Cook is indeed out of there, I think he falls right into that low-end RB2 range. If you want to put him ahead of someone like J.K. Dobbins and Kenneth Walker, I probably wouldn't. I'd put them right behind there. I'd say right now, gun to my head, RB19 just ahead of guys like Cam Akers, James Conner, Damian Pierce. So I don't

really think he's necessarily going to get that full-time workhorse three-down role. And if he does, as we just talked about, look, this offense, they're going to be throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson, to Jordan Addison, to TJ Hawkinsonon i think madison's gonna be the fourth or fifth pass game option so one thing we briefly talked about for the show you brought up ty chandler might actually be the guy to get at cost and i'll tell you what man when you get into these underdog best ball drafts where you got 18 rounds to get through man once you get past those top 150 picks pickings really start to get slim you know we've we've been drafting Browns backup Jerome Ford for weeks now. He's finally starting to go up.

Tajay Spears. There's a few guys out there. Ty Chandler, though, still regularly available in round 18. And I think once we probably get into training camp, find out that he is the number two guy behind Madison. That's when we can really get behind that value. Yeah. And that's what I think is really difficult for us to figure out at this moment

until we get to training camp, but also a challenge for folks like yourself who are getting rolling in the fantasy world in the middle of the summer is it could Ty Chandler end up being a steal because, you know, I think last year during preseason and training camp, we saw him emerge as somebody who I would call intriguing. he only carried the ball 15 times in preseason so like let's not go crazy but those 15 were very impressive I mean he showed really unique bursts and he's a little bit more experienced coming out of college I think he was 23 or 24 when he came out of college so more of a kind of ready to go type of guy but as you know well nobody else gets the football if Delvin Cook is there.

And then no one else is getting opportunities. Chandler also got hurt. I think it was on special teams he got injured. So he wasn't getting any chance anyway to get a rotational spot. But he's a guy that when you see him in OTAs, he's getting a lot of work mixing in with Alexander Madison. And he's got some jolt to him.

And I think that what could end up playing out is that they want to go with the guy that they trust and you know this I'm sure you deal with this all the time a team likes somebody with pass blocking ability more than they like the faster guy it happens all the time but in this case if Ty Chandler can get to a baseline of those other things the route combinations that he's got to be a part of and the pass blocking scheme that he has to be a part of. He's just got more quickness than Alexander Madison and more home run ability. So I think that that possibility is there that he could end up being more 50-50 or even throughout the season end up taking the majority of the carries because even though I think Madison is a very good player, there isn't any real home run ability, which I think is why his yards per carry is always just kind of met.

And he, he has had like a good success rate. Like he kind of look at, you know, like his PFF Russian grade, and that's a little bit better than kind of what you're seeing with the raw yards per carry. So not trying to say Madison's terrible by any stretch of the

imagination, but again, I think when, at least in the fantasy world, like he is, again, I listed those finishes, like consistent RB one stuff, just a little bit more backed by that volume.

Not every down workhorse role that I'm not quite as convinced is going to be there. It'll just be interesting though, man. Because again, for this to be, and this was something that ever since Madison got all the guaranteed money, you know, in free agency, we were like, okay, wow, this could be time for Dalvin Cook to be out. And through that whole process for no other meaningful additions to be made, I mean, for Ty Chandler to be the leader in the clubhouse as a fifth-round pick from last year, and now Dwayne McBride, you know, a seventh-round pick this year, I guess that was the only thing that kind of caught me by surprise

because the two situations where we did think the veterans could be leaving, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon and Cincy, neither team really went all that far out of their way to go ahead and actually add more bodies to this room after now going to be losing their starting running back. So, hey, Madison, Chandler, Kenne, McBride. Yeah, OK, that can make it work. But just objectively speaking, Matthew, like that's probably a bottom five running back room in the entire NFL.

Now, if you're going to have a position, be a bottom five group in the NFL, I think we can agree it's probably the running back room out of all of them. So from that standpoint, I mean, go ahead, I guess, but yeah, not so sure we should be fully drinking the Kool-Aid if Madison's going to be, you know, flying up those draft boards. So again, low end RB2 going around some of these other guys, I don't think it's terrible, but when it comes down to it and draft land man, spending a fifth round pick on them or getting one of these ball or wide receivers or tight ends, probably won't be getting a ton of Madison once this goes through and that price gets even steeper well and that's what makes me wonder the fact that they didn't really add anybody else outside of

drafting Dwayne McBride that makes me wonder how they feel about Ty Chandler because clearly they can trust Alexander Madison he knows the offense he knows where he's got to be and I think that you talk about catching the ball I think he's a better catcher of the football than Delvin Cook, where it was always talked about. And again, I'm sure you've paid attention to this. Always talked about, well, he's in the slot in OTAs. He's going to play. He even tweeted the Matthew.

He tweeted the video of himself making a catch against Pittsburgh last year. Yes, yes. And, you know, I always thought maybe they should have done a little more of stuff like that, but I was never buying that he was suddenly going to become something he wasn't. He was a true running back. And I think that Madison can be more of a threat because he actually has really great hands. But, you know, I also think that there's a chance here for Chandler to step up. I guess I was wondering, from your perspective, as you analyze something like this with someone that has no sample size.

And last year there was the same argument for Kenny Wongu. Like maybe he's going to make some noise here. Maybe he's going to be a rotational player and it just never came to fruition. I guess I just wonder how you deal with those players where you can talk yourself into it, but you really don't have a sample size to say whether it could be the case or not.

It comes down to the opportunity costs and some of the guys that he is going around that again i mentioned where he's probably gonna be they have similar issues right now cam acres someone in los angeles that we have seen get that stretch for certain portions and then all of a sudden week one comes around he's in sean mcveigh's doghouse you know james connor brand new coaching staff he's getting a little bit long in the tooth damian pierce brand new coaching staff miles sanders is little bit long in the tooth Damian Pierce brand new coaching staff Miles Sanders is leaving for a Carolina team that we're not sure what his role is going to be Montgomery is leaving for a new team Rashad White are they going to add someone there so a lot of questions with that general range of running backs and that's why in fantasy land a lot of these times right now we've seen wide receivers and even some of those high-end

quarterbacks being pushed up higher than ever because really after you get you get past the first 12, 13 running backs or so, you just start having these questions with a lot of the guys. You know, in the year 2023, there are only so many offenses left that are going to use one, even two running backs full-time, more and more going to three and four. And when you don't have a great offense to back that up, really tough to use top-tier draft capital. So one of those things where, you know, every situation is different. I try to treat it accordingly. I capital. So one of those things where every situation is different,

I try to treat it accordingly. I do think using some of the coaching history has been an advantage, especially for guys like O'Connell who, my God, man, having the McVay, the Shanahan, and the LaFleur coaching trees, like these head coaches that call plays and then their offensive coordinators get these jobs elsewhere, it's always a struggle to try to figure out how much did that OC actually have to say in the offense out how much did that OC actually have

to say and the offense and how much was that just the head football coach doing it. So I think using, again, not, not anticipating the Vikings speed, you know, the Los Angeles Vikings necessarily,

but using things like the running back involvement in the passing game last year, when Nathaniel Hackett went to Denver, I was a little bit worried about Albert. Oh, just getting the freaking full-time tight end role. When we saw in green Bay, you know, Robert Tunyon scores 12 touchdowns and he still can't get a full-time role. So little things like that from one coaching staff to another, I think has helped

with some of the unknown situations. And there's just, I think looking at guys smarter than myself, you know, real football evaluation. I usually lean on the athletics, Dane Brugler for that. You guys can still read his beast. I mean, I go back years and just, you know, some of these guys who maybe haven't gotten a chance to play Kyle Trask, for example. I went back and pulled his up. Dane Brugler compared him

to a carbon copy of Mason Rudolph. And I said, great, I am done here with this. So just again, trying to lean on that because a lot of these guys too, even the A.J. Dillons of the world, who Kenneth Walkers too, you look at their collegiate stats and they

have so few receptions. It's like, oh, okay, this can't be a pass catcher. It's like, okay, can they not catch the football? Or are they from some college offense that just had no interest in throwing the football to them in the first place? So there's only one or two Ronald Joneses out there who I think physically are truly terrible receivers and catchers of the football. More times than not, you got this absolutely freak athlete running back. I'm not saying they can all be Austin Eckler and McCaffrey working downfield, but you throw them a couple swings, throw them a couple checkdowns, I'm pretty confident in them.

So, yeah, man, wide open situation. Definitely going to be listening to you and the rest of the Vikings beat, trying to see how this is going to evolve here as the summer months wind up. Yeah, I mean, that was actually the Vikings thinking what you just laid out in drafting Dwayne McBride, where they looked at his receptions in college and said, I mean, it might just be with their scheme that they never really throw the ball to the running back. Because most of the time the running back is just catching a pass that is floated to him that anybody could catch except for us.

Right. So yeah, that's an catch except for us. Right. So yeah, that, that's, that's an interesting element of that. And I, I do think that this Vikings offense, and this is where, well, actually, let me ask you first about Delvin cook though, because I don't want to just say like, all right, P Delvin cook. We'll see you later. Let's never talk about him again. I do want to know from you though. And I think this has been part of the holdup is where he would fit around the league. Because when I look through a lot of teams and I know there's Miami buzz and then the jets got brought up and there's kind of a bunch of teams

that are being named now as maybe the Vikings are like, come on, doesn't somebody want him? Doesn't somebody want to trade us a draft pick, but it is not easy to look around the NFL and find a place for a bell cow running back. I think that I was having a conversation with a Jets person yesterday about just like, if you went to the Jets, are you going to give them like 150 carries and mix the carries with your other running backs? And then when Brees Hall comes back, you know, Delvin Cook just doesn't play. Like, how are you handling that? But almost every running back situation has those same challenges where they already have

a guy who's slated to get the majority of carries yeah and the other side of it is like a lot of these teams are in a similar situation as the vikings where it's not that they couldn't use dalvin cook look i think dalvin cook would help all 32 running back rooms in the nfl like the guy is not completely washed if he is like all right a wash version dalvin cook and still almost go for 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns without terrible efficiency. So I don't think he's completely done by any stretch of the imagination. Allegedly, he even got the shoulder issue finally fixed up this offseason.

So I just think overall when you look at it, teams like the Buccaneers, the Rams, I think the Broncos, depending on how Javante's feeling, maybe the Bills, get the James Cook, Dalvin Cook, get the reunion going. By the way, James Dalvin Cook and Dalvin James Cook. Love that freaking fun fact we got going on there. But those teams, I think, are similar situation where they probably don't have the money to splurge on Dalvin

unless he's going to just take a big-time cap or big-time salary hit, whatever the hell he can do to change that up. Three teams I do think make sense, and they have the money. Dolphins, Cowboys, and the Char they have the money Dolphins Cowboys and the Chargers and the Dolphins I know those have been that's been the team consistently floated yeah they drafted Devin A-chain the third round but my god man I want him to work out too I love speed as much as the next guy but hunt up to 192 pounds this offseason just not so sure he can handle that with the Cowboys replacing Zeke Elliott you know we have heard a little bit of murmurs about

him potentially coming back. But even then, man, Tony Pollard just got the franchise tag. He's not going to be coming off the field. Even the Los Angeles Chargers, that's more of a situation where Austin Eckler's even been on record himself. He doesn't want to be a workhorse running back getting 200, 250 carries per year. He's very happy working in a committee and more so focusing on the passing game. But to your point, Fantasyland, man, I wrote this on Fantasylife.com.

You guys can check it out over there. Always free. Gotta love that. But with the Dolphins, I think if he goes there, probably ends up being pretty close to Alexander Madison, honestly. I have him projected as the RB19 right there in that same group of guys. But if not the Dolphins, man, Cowboys, I'm RB29, Chargers, RB32. That's not going to be super pretty pretty and he still is going right now

with all this uncertainty and if you guys are crazy enough like me to be drafting here in lovely june you are seeing them going right around this top 20 rb so similar to deandre hopkins i think we might be kind of underestimating how low things could get excuse me for uh dalvin cook i mean just with these running backs man they fall off a cliff in a hurry. I'm not saying Dalvin necessarily fell off a cliff, but to your original point, finding a new employer that's going to treat him like prime Dalvin and giving him those 300 touches. I don't think they're out there.

So again, we also have Fournette, Hunt, Zeke, and probably another couple of guys that are waiting for that exact same thing. So I would put Dalvin ahead of all those guys. Don't get me wrong, but you know, maybe there's another team out there that thinks differently. So yeah, not the most ideal would put Dalvin ahead of all those guys don't get me wrong but you know maybe there's another team out there that thinks differently so yeah not uh not the most ideal situation for Dalvin it seems like they've been trying to work with him to find the right trade

partner so I'm not accusing the Vikings of screwing him over or anything like that but uh just hasn't exactly worked out for either side so far unfortunately folks I've been wearing Oakley's now for a few weeks, and let me tell you, there is a reason that Justin Jefferson and a bunch of other football players wear these things. Because they are awesome. I've got the matte black Prism Sapphire Polar sunglasses on, and I've been doing all sorts of summer things with them. I've been hitting golf balls in the water, jogging, playing basketball, getting sunburned,

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today. Oakley, express your style and build a look that's made for you. The challenges of being a running back in the NFL just never end so let's talk about Jordan Addison because we are having debates already on the sideline between beat reporters over whether KJ Osborne or Jordan Addison will end up with more receptions for this year now I have made the case for KJ Osborne here because a it is a complicated offense for wide receivers West Phillips their offensive coordinator, explained this yesterday. Receivers have to line up all over the field. There's a lot of reads you have to make.

There's a lot of changes. A lot of things have to be done on the fly. That's not to say that Jordan Addison can't do that. He lined up in a lot of places in college. But right away, that might be a little more tricky to earn the trust of Kirk Cousins in the same way that KJ Osborne has. There's also, and I don't want to say that he's going to be injury prone or anything like that. I'm not saying that. And you hate that. I know you hate that from the fantasy perspective of the injury prone. But Jordan Addison was banged up a little in college, banged up a little at

the combine, banged up a little here in OTAs. And I just wonder about his first full season. That is so hard for rookies to go through the whole college process, combine everything else, and then step into the NFL and have that 17-game season where K.J. Osborne has been a professional for years. And I know that Kirk Cousins really likes him. That's my case. But everyone I see from fantasy is saying that Jordan Addison is this tremendous pick that everyone should be making.

So maybe I'm completely wrong. How do you see this? Where he's going right now in drafts, I think is reasonable. He's kind of stuck in that mid-tier wide receiver three range, you know, next to guys like a Trey Lomberg, like a Kadarius Tony, Jackson Smith, and the Jigba at this point is only going a few picks ahead of them. So those guys do have similar questions going on, but especially man, the early season, I think you're right to have some concerns about him immediately working over KJ Osborne. I mean, we all laugh about all the reports that came out. Oh, Justin

Jefferson working behind Ola BC Johnson to start, you know, his rookie year. Oh my God, how ridiculous that happened only for two weeks, only for two weeks, but that did happen. Justin Jefferson played fewer snaps and Ola BC Johnson the week before he had that breakout game against the Titans where, you know, he's gritting across the freaking goal line for his first career touchdown. So like it is one of these situations where we saw last year, I mean, just the rookie wide receiver breakout sometimes wait until, you know, you need to wait a good half of the season for them to really come to fruition. And I have done studies showing that on average, you know, these rookie wide receivers are scoring

more points in the second half of the year versus the first half. Now in fantasy, that's fine because, you know, we're trying to ultimately optimize things for weeks 15 to 17, you know, for those fancy playoffs. But no, I think it could be a bit of an issue early on I will say KJ Osborne like the concern I guess that I would have is just that really he's been there he's been out there in three wide receiver sets we've had occasional flashes I mean that Colts comeback last year was probably his best game ever but looking at him since he's coming to the league 97th among 110 qualified wide receivers and yards per outrun 104th and targets per outrun those are the in targets per outrun.

Those are the two metrics that tend to be stickiest when, you know, looking at guys like really taking that step forward. The guys that when they're out there on the field running routes, they've been able to demand targets. They've been able to make good uses of them. I understand you're sharing an offense with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, who even if he wasn't completely killing it in the, you know, really just last year. I mean, I wouldn't say, you know,

even two years before that he was scoring 10 plus touchdowns. So not in the, you know, really just last year. I mean, I wouldn't say, you know, even two years before that he was scoring 10 plus touchdowns. So not trying to, you know, dismiss what he was even doing later in his career, but there wasn't much to go around there. But then you had a first round wide receiver into the group. I tend to think Addison is going to be that guy sooner rather than later. I guess the one argument would be like, who do you think is going to be ultimately featured in the two wide receiver sets or will it matter? Because looking at last year, man, Adam Thielen, second in total routes last season, only behind Justin Jefferson.

So I think it's going to be Addison and Jefferson before too long. But if they do just say Osbournes are number two, Addison, you know, you are not big enough to be on the outside. We're going to stick you in the slot. I know he's had experience playing both, but at the end if i love us if they decide that's how i see it going wrong man so do you think again this osborne issue because to be fair osborne is much more established than olivese johnson i think ever was in this offense so i think there's something there man but again not the opportunity cost in that mid-wide receiver three range i do get the upside yeah the uh the bc johnson and justin jefferson situation was a little bit weird because Jefferson had gotten covid in 2020 and there was that truncated training camp. So there was only like two or three weeks of training camp.

And Jefferson, they just didn't feel like was ready with the complete offense yet. And then after they lost the first two games and the offense was horrendous, they decided it's just speed this up. Yeah, it's just time. And then he put on one of the most incredible performances I've ever seen in my life. But, yeah, I mean, but it does happen just in general because it's who not only the coaching staff is going to trust, but also who the quarterback is going to trust. And throughout the years, Kirk Cousins has repeatedly talked about K.J. Osborne

as a guy that he's got a lot of trust with. This is what I'm thinking to sort of make the argument. I don't know if it's going to be really the case or not. I just know how tricky it was last year for even Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to learn this offense. And even the first couple of weeks of the season, they were looking at Kirk like, was I supposed to go there? And these are the best receivers in the world. So I think that the challenge is there for that to happen. And I think it's also

very difficult. And I'm curious about kind of your thought about the whole group, like TJ Hawkinson included. I think it's difficult for anybody around someone like Justin Jefferson, because every single play is designed to go to Justin Jefferson. And I don't blame anybody for that. Everybody else is just, I was talking to Keenan McArdle, the receivers coach. And he's like, I tell everybody, you got to be open on tape because you might not be getting the football, but you got to be ready if it comes your way. But also there is the element of after Jefferson annihilated the entire universe last year, everybody is designing their defense to face Justin Jefferson this year.

So I don't know how you weigh all these factors when you're looking at Osborne, Addison, and Hawkinson, who are all, we'll see on Addison, but all thought to be very capable pass catchers. And that's the thing where the one guy out of that group I've been drafting less and less is TJ Hawkinson. I think those numbers last year were a bit too lofty to expect to come to fruition again. Hats off to the guy though.

I mean, with Chase Claypool going to bears and like a month and a half later, they were like, you know, he still doesn't know the offense well enough to get out there. Hawkinson played like 90% of the snaps, like his very first week in Minnesota caught nine passes for 70 yards. So he crushed it and I get the talent and everything,

but if you just look at his pace and he played 10 games there I believe yeah including the wild card game 163 target pace in terms of a 17 game season if you extrapolate that out so don't quite think he's going to get there I mean that is like what we hope that Kelsey and Andrews and these guys can even get to and guess what that's fine if Hawkinson only gets 120 targets he's still going to have a very good chance that you know leaping into the positions top three, if not top five. So nothing against Hawkinson in particular, but again, it's more so like when I'm drafting, like what can I get now that I can't get later? And with Hawkinson right now being anointed as this usually number three tight end on the board behind only Kelsey and Andrews, like I don't see that much of a reason to draft Hawkinson literally like sometimes four to five rounds ahead of someone like Darren Waller and you got Dallas Goddard and George Kittle going later. So Hawkinson is the one that I think is probably being priced up a little too

much because there only is one football to go around in this offense. And even if Addison, maybe the expectations are a little high, which I think they do tend to be for most rookies. Cause we spend freaking February through April every year, gushing over all these guys before they played a single nfl snap i would say hawkinson could be the odd man out there but no it's a it's a good point with the uh osborne situation i know we tend to write write guys like kj osborne off because they haven't been you know

super elite during their time then you see the flashy rookie come in but at least in uh september may you know it's going to be one of those situations where look i'm probably not going to move addison down that much further than i have i think he is a solid wide receiver three at this point in time but in september you know start sick questions week one week two like anything close i'm gonna be taking the other guy i'm happy to be a week late on addison but once it's here man i think it's gonna be a fun time yeah i think that this whole group is got kind of a lot of intrigue of, I mean, that we haven't really seen in the past. It's almost been very easy to go like, are they just going to do the same things they

did before? And the answer is usually yes. Which brings us to, of course, Kirk Cousins, who you shouted out for the beginning of the show. There is no more projectable quarterback or predictable quarterback with Kirk Cousins. And even if you just factor, well, if they throw more passes, his efficiency will go down and his turnovers will go up and so forth, which always happens. But if you run the bootlegs and try to run the ball all the

time, then his efficiency will go up and his totals will go down. I mean, it just, it's, you can always turn the sliders with him a little bit. But there is one thing I wanted to ask you about. We talk about age curves with running backs all the time. But something that I was looking at before last year and then going into this year with Kirk Cousins is just that there are GOAT quarterbacks who have gone into their late 30s and 40s and have just continued to be who they are. There are not a lot of other quarterbacks who have done that. The quarterbacks who you would compare historically to Kirk Cousins in their mid-30s started to hit a wall. I don't know if that's going to happen.

He looks totally fine in OTAs. He kind of always looks like Kirk. And I don't think athleticism has ever been how he's gotten where he is. It's been mostly technique and throwing accuracy and stuff like that, which doesn't fade as fast. But I am interested in that fantasy angle of, do you factor age into the quarterback conversation? Because I do think his starts to come into play in the mid thirties.

Hey man, he did have those like 13 rushing touchdowns with Washington back in the day. You can scoot a little bit pre Minnesota, but I know what you're saying. A hundred percent with quarterback, man, like your intuition spot on. Now, this a little bit pre-Minnesota, but I know what you're saying, 100%. With quarterback, man, your intuition is spot on. This is one thing I usually look at in February and March,

the real dog days of the calendar, especially when Dynasty is in the air in Fantasyland. But looking at quarterbacks or any position, I guess 35 years or older by the time the season is going to be done with, every single top 12 fantasy performer over the past 10 years, 18% of the quarterbacks have been age 35 or older.

That's actually the highest individual age bracket of the quarterback position. 0% running back, 0% wide receivers, 3% tight ends. So tight end and quarterback are the only ones you can kind of see these guys get up there a little bit in age and still continue to put forward the great performances now when i've done this a lot of people are like oh that's just tom brady right there like that's probably the only guy it is yes brady is accounting for you know a bit of that he had six top 12 finishes after you know reaching the age of 35 but drew brees also had six aaron rogers had three paint manning had two ben rossberger had two all those guys are objectively a bit better

than Kirk Cousins and that's the problem here I would not exactly put him in that you know a range of things but with Kirk man I do think that he a bit unfairly like he's been a lot better than guys like Derek Carr a lot better than guys like Jared Goff and you don't have to dig that deep into the advanced metrics to see that I think because he hasn't had the team-wide success he's still viewed more as an equal with those guys but I'm happy to prioritize him in that group I think because he hasn't had the team-wide success, he's still viewed more as an equal with those guys, but I'm happy to prioritize him in that group. I mean, right now I have Kirk as my quarterback 16, which I know, I know he just finished as a QB 12, three straight years, but I have my head of guys like Jared Goff, like Russell Wilson, like Derek Carr, like Matthew Stafford. And I'm not against taking Kirk Cousins because I think in general, that tier of

quarterbacks, when you're not getting the rushing upside attached to them, that's where we really struggle in fantasy land to properly designate these guys, like where they're going. Because when we see Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, you know, it's not that hard to wrap your mind around, okay, this guy could run for 800 plus yards and always also going to throw the football a lot. That makes sense. And historically, when you look at the top six QBs and preseason ADP, they finish as top six QBs at a way higher rate

than we see the back half of the QBs. That's where guys like Geno Smith, like Jared Goff, can come a bit out of nowhere. So my advice would just be, look, with Kirk Cousins, he's going to be someone that's going to be ranked right around that QB1 borderline every single week next year. And that is valuable. I wouldn't exactly go out of my way to reach on him though,

because as much as Kirk cousins is someone that we can rank there, man, when we start looking at a Matthew Stafford, even guys like Kenny Pickett or Jordan love, like I just don't think the difference between two pocket passers is worth legit. Sometimes five, six rounds of difference in a fancy draft.

So Kirk, I think he's appropriately priced, you know, kind of on that QB one borderline, you know, forever going to be someone we're going to want a little bit more out of. But at the same time, you know, we're going to be impressed when we look at the advanced stats. Bill Nicky is someone you need to go out of your way for, especially just in your traditional one QB leagues. Usually what I've been doing and best ball is a little bit different strategy because you, you know, you draft and then you don't have a chance for waivers or anything like that so you have to

draft several QBs I've kind of been letting my early picks decide what QBs I'm going to get so if I'm getting the 101 we got Justin Jefferson I scoop up Hawkinson or Addison later yeah let's build a Viking stack at that point not someone where I'm just stopping everything I'm doing though around nine going you know who would really take this team over the top captain Kurt. Well, you know, and I think that the way that Kevin O'Connell played last year was very much to lean into the passing game. And part of that was also circumstances. They played in a ton of close games where you have to keep passing. So it's not like you're up by 20 points this year. The defense is probably not going to be all that great. And it's going to have its issues.

It might improve from where it was last year, but based on their schedule, that's not going to be very easy. So there's going to be a ton of opportunity for him to throw the ball. It's just that I wonder about if the, those efficiency numbers, the QBR is the quarterback rating from last year, even the PFF grade,

these things all kind of drifted backwards. And if you go through a lot of similar quarterbacks in history to him, you're always going to find that year where he goes into the year and everyone's like, oh, it's, it's all good. And then just what, what happened? It wasn't as good anymore because you know, age just kind of comes for everybody. And I'm not like trying to predict that. I'm just saying that that all of a sudden becomes much more possible at this point in someone's career.

Bro, last year we had Reggie Wayne throwing up because of how much Matt Ryan reminded him of Peyton Manning. Like, how is he still throwing up? You still throwing up out there, Reggie? So, I know. I mean, it's very possible. And, you know, one of the things I brought at the beginning of this was the top 10 scoring offenses.

And I went back and looked at, you know, how sticky is that? How often the top 10 offenses one year repeat defeat the next year. It gets cut in half, man, median and average since 2000, only an average of, I think 4.8 teams actually do repeat that. So chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, bills, lions, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, and Jaguars. Those are the top 10 offenses from last season. History tells us five of them are going to be on the outside looking in. Niners, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, and Jaguars. Those are the top 10 offenses from last season.

History tells us five of them are going to be on the outside looking in. So not saying the Vikings are going to fall to 30th or anything like that. They could be the 11th or 12th ranked offense and still be perfectly fine for real life purposes. But no, it's a good point about just not continuously assuming, again, guys like Cousins, guys that don't have the rushing out, these older quarterbacks that need to be super efficient as passers to even have a chance of you know flirting with fancy upside those are the guys um more times not fading again unless it goes into a stack because if you do want to try to find okay who can i get that is like josh hertz or not josh hertz jaylen hertz or madden coverboy as it just came out uh josh allen coming out here where can i get you know archetypes of those guys for cheaper in the later rounds anthony richardson the colts new qb1 he fits that

criteria vanilla vic daniel jones daniel jones last season averaged more fantasy points per game than trevor lawrence and i know we can say that's everything that's wrong with fantasy football and if that's your take i'm not even calling you an idiot but it's the game we play and that sweet sweet rushing upside is going to change the position and honestly it's gross it feels weird but Kyla Murray's probably the other one everyone just writing off this year and you have a quarterback who's essentially free now at the back at the back end of drafts that we have seen at his best put forward top five if not top three numbers so again with Kirk Cousins and stuff I think that situation where you can say,

where can I find him later? I mean, Ryan Tannehill's free because of the Jimmy Garoppolo foot injury. People are freaking out about that. Brock Purdy's there. You know, you can even talk about Bryce Young and CJ Stroud type guys. I take Cousins over all of them,

but it's not just about that. It's like, do I want Cousins in round 10 or do I want, you know, again, Ryan Tannehill literally round 18. I've kind of had this, you know, again, Ryan Tannehill, literally round 18. I've kind of had this, you know, more of a first or last approach, unless I'm getting a Richardson type that I think could this time next year be in that first group. So I wrote down some random players around the league to wrap up with that. I wanted your like quick one second hot take on it.

And actually Anthony Richardson was one of them because I think that's a very hard one to predict. But even though he's talked about as a quarterback who should sit for a year and so forth, they're not going to play Gardner Minshew there. They're playing Anthony Richardson. And I've seen fantasy people have him fairly high because the rushing upside. So give me your, give me your elevator pitch for why Anthony Richardson should be a higher pick. 13 of 14 quarterbacks with 125 plus carries in a season have posted top 12 fantasy numbers per game. Per game. So I'm not just rewarding guys that played 17 games and they get the finish because you get to add up their points versus guys with 13 points. The only one that didn't was 2020 Cam Newton with the Patriots because he still scored like 13 rushing touchdowns,

just couldn't quite crack the top 12. So honestly, just receiving running backs and rushing quarterbacks, those are the two cheat codes we have in this game. And Anthony Richardson just broke the combine as the most athletic QB ever. So maybe Minshew gets the start of the season. I tweeted after Richardson got drafted that I will eat a tweet, so I got to get a printer ready, I guess do that if richardson is not the week one starter because just in history man it happens every now and then but i uh calculated earlier yeah it's like

since 2010 the only quarterbacks that were drafted in the top 10 to not start at least 10 games as a rookie tua who got to nine was kind of hurt. Jared Goff, blame Jeff Fisher. Trey Lance, interesting situation. Mahomes, like Alex Smith had them racking up division titles and was played like an MVP that year. And the only guy who had not started a single game was Jake Locker with zero. So unless you think Richardson's Jake Locker, and I do think some actually comped him to that coming out, I would not.

I think he's going to be starting 10 plus games easy. I was still expecting to be out there in week one. And he's just going to be like, we'll see if he gets to later career Josh Allen, but before Josh Allen became a world beater in real life, he was still a great fancy QB. I think that's what Richardson will be in 2023. Yeah.

I think that's sort of the best case scenario is that he has that progression where he's still a great runner right away. And then it gets better and better year over year with the passing uh how about same thing right yeah well and we'll see we'll see where that goes from there but that but from a fantasy perspective yes fields uh was still good last year uh kenny pickett and george pickens both intrigued me because i don't know what to think of kenny pickett yet i was impressed in a couple of games toward the end of the season and i really like what i saw from some highlight catches from George Pickens, but I don't know about the bigger sample on him either. What is your view on two guys there that are

supposed to take huge jumps in Pittsburgh? Pickett had this thing where he, I may have won like six of his last eight starts. I think one of those games he even got knocked out. And so you'd hear good things at the end, but like he's winning these games like 13 to 9 with like a great game winning drive there at the end so hey clutch factor all that you know sure go ahead but in terms of the fantasy points that are being put forward just weren't there here are the only rookie quarterbacks that started at least 10 games and did not throw for even 10 touchdowns since 2000 david carr cal orton bruce krakowskiowski, Jimmy Clawson, Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Kenny Pickett.

So not a great group to be in. And I don't think we can look back at that Steelers team and have the usual argument where it's like, oh, look who he was throwing to, nobody. I don't know. He had Pickens out there making a sick one-handed catch every week. Deontay Johnson has put forward big seasons before. Pat Fryermuth, not going to say say Najee Harris but you guys could imagine so with that

situation with Pickett again he's so cheap at the end of drafts I don't hate it if I already do have some Steelers out there because he would hardly be the first quarterback to make a nice leap from year one to year two my god Trevor Lawrence's numbers you know Jared Goff's numbers like we've seen it but also wasn't a number one overall pick like those guys. I would say, you know, nine, I'd say like seven times out of 10, I don't think Pickett is going to be working out. In terms of Pickens, I'm finally getting back into it. It was the weirdest thing, man, starting off this off season.

Only very recently did Deontay Johnson actually get moved ahead of Pickens and people were drafting him ahead because again, the whole argument last year, you know, Tua versus Herbert and Herbert's a social media QB, whatever idiot said that, but like Pickens is a social media wide receiver if we've ever seen one, cause he's just making these acrobatic catches, shoving cornerbacks down off the line of scrimmage.

I love it. And I do think he's perhaps being a little bit unfairly penalized because Pittsburgh only asked him to run goes half the time. So he's not even getting a chance to run a more nuanced route tree but ultimately man you can't do much with the football if it's not being thrown to you rocket science right there and in those about roughly 11 games that pick it was under center Deontay Johnson had 92 targets and second place was Fryer Mooth with 67 and then third was Pickens with 58 so only one football to go around I trust Deontay more so as

a target earner as pickings adp goes down i'm fine don't hate the player hate the adp uh but right now i would say with both of those guys gonna be a bit rough the two stealers i've been drafting man dionte johnson in their handcuff jaylen warren otherwise man uh we kenny pickett when he was in college and coming out of the draft that fucker i said but i said he kind of reminds me a little bit of teddy bridgewater and actually last year he reminded me a lot of teddy bridgewater like that not putting up big stats but kind of coming through and not turning the ball over enough to help your defense and so forth um but i don't know if the ceiling is any higher either. The last one I have is Jordan

Love because that I think is the hardest thing to predict in Vikings land is looking around the division and saying, well, I think we know that the Lions are going to be a good team. The Bears, I don't think are quite there yet unless Justin Fields takes that Josh Allen leap. Jordan Love, I just have no idea what to think. So how are you projecting Jordan Love? I have him ranked right next to Pickett because it's just again we have these quarterbacks who are not going to be give they can both move a little bit you know as much as i as a former linebacker hate to pick a fake slide it was cool like i'll give him that i guess and you know he got it outlawed jordan love can move around a little bit and we've seen that you know in his brief times under center but we're

not going to be getting this justin fields you know, 1,000-plus-yard season out of nowhere. So, at the end of the day, they're two quarterbacks that we fully expect to start 17 games. Like, there's going to be no quarterback controversy in either of those situations. So, just from that perspective, man, like when you're getting into round 15, 16 of these drafts, like you're looking at a quarterback that will probably start 17 games versus just a bunch of backups at running back and maybe clear cut number three wide receivers out there as well.

So just comes down to what kind of roster construction you're working with. If you need a second quarterback in terms of, you know, I think most people out there listening, just doing a traditional one quarterback league with your friends. No, you're not touching either of these guys, unless you want to go ahead and, you know, try to find a way to stream them later. And guess what? If they do impress early on, they'll be there on your waiver wire for you to go ahead and you know try to find a way to stream them later and guess what if they do impress early on they'll be there on your waiver wire for you to go ahead and get them so not out on Jordan Love or pick it because we just really haven't seen enough to

have this super opinion on in one way or another that's the whole thing that pissed me off about the Trey Lance debate man like okay he hasn't done anything but like that doesn't mean he couldn't in the future how could you make any sort of you you know, conclusion about him when we've, you know, barely seen the guy. So I just hope that when the chiefs actually come to town here, the Packers give them a Holmes family, a little bit of a taste of their own medicine. Remember that first start they put loves family literally in the highest seat possible away from the field.

That just, I can't get over that happening, man. They got to get them back here. Yeah, that's right. I remember that well good thing they couldn't see what Jordan was doing because it wasn't that good uh in that game but uh Ian always great stuff always really fun and interesting conversation with you and I guess we'll see what happens with Jordan Love but um I think the ceiling probably like with Kenny Pickett is a little lower, but if he's okay, then they might be a decent team this year. It's just hard to say that he's going to be the next Rogers,

but Vikings fans certainly terrified of that. Fantasylife.com is the website. If you followed Matthew Berry for a long time, that's his project and you're a major part of that. So I'm very happy for you and that people should follow you as 130 000 people do on twitter i was blown away when i looked back i mean that is uh you are a borderline influencer at uh at 130k but uh no i heart it's on twitter if you're not already one of those people so appreciate the time man glad to do this uh summer get together

with you again, and we'll do it again soon. Appreciate you, brother. Go Vikings, everyone.