Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Fantasy Points' Joe Dolan projects the toughest Vikings opponents

Episode Date: July 3, 2024

Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life talks about the outlook for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and why he's concerned about the QB play impacting their numbers and then goes deep into sleepers and the rookie class. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insiders. We continue Fantasy Football Week on the show. One of my favorite fantasy football folks is Joe Dolan of Fantasy Points and FantasyPoints.com. And Joe, I have been on your show several times as part of your franchise focus series. So I thought as a part of Fantasy football week here on my show that you should come on and talk about some football teams do you think you could do that is that would that work for you absolutely about about time i i pay it back uh for you coming on the show for all these years it's been wonderful to have you uh for those of you who who don't know who i am um i don't

expect you to but hi i'm joe and uh just just like Matthew, I am a Greyhound enthusiast. I have two of them. They're not here right now. They're downstairs with my wife, but they are the prides and joy of my life. And I'm preparing right now. I don't know when this is being released, but we're recording this before the 4th of July. I'm preparing right now for my poor crimpet to be hiding in my closet because of the fireworks. We can't do it.

Everybody's like, do you have fourth plans? Yeah, comforting my poor dog. That's my fourth plans. Yep yep i know all about it our uh greyhound who passed away two years ago uh she could not stand the fireworks and in my neighborhood july 4th for some reason starts june 30th and i will never understand that people fire off random fireworks and stuff so stop it because you're driving dogs insane but that was always one of our worst times of the year. And let me guess what your greyhounds are doing right now. Sleeping.

That's it. Yeah, they get activated around 4 p.m. Eastern. That's usually when they get activated and start running around a little bit. But they get their zoomies. But they are sleeping right now. Their people are home, which is very important for them. Well, they are a great dog and, uh, anybody who is looking for a family pet might want to look into greyhound adoption. I don't know where things stand with, uh, racing in Florida and some other

places around the country, but I believe there's been significant efforts to stop greyhound racing, which will mean more dogs need homes. so look into that if you're interested there's your psa from joe dolan and uh well why don't we start as far as football goes with some teams on the vikings schedule that seems like the smartest place to begin how about the new york giants what have you found out about the new york giants because i was looking through fantasypoints.com your great projections there and. And with Daniel Jones, I don't think anybody really knows what to do here with Daniel Jones. Two years ago, it was a reasonably good season for Daniel Jones. Now I'm not saying it was fantastic, but he was only fantastic against the Vikings, but he didn't turn the ball over very

much. And he ran a ton, which in the fantasy universe is gold uh but then last year everything was a complete disaster he was sacked 30 times in six starts or something like that through interceptions really really struggled do we think malik neighbors is going to impact him positively not having saquon barkley brian dable probably playing for his job here or are we just are we just out? Are we just like they screwed that whole thing up and we're done with Daniel? The thing that's nice about the Giants, and I put nice in quotation marks, is the fact that the Giants are very cheap.

The problem, there's only one Giant who's particularly expensive. That's Malik Neighbors. In best ball drafts right now, he's going around wide receiver 19. We have him at wide receiver 29 and a large part of that is because of the uncertainty with uh with Daniel Jones or Drew Locke or whoever the quarterback's going to be you know he's coming off a torn ACL he's embattled as is the offensive line is bad so is the offensive line going to improve enough for Daniel Jones to keep up right is Malikors going to be enough of an improvement over their receivers to give them actually decent options? How big a downgrade

is Devin Singletary going to be in the backfield? All these questions kind of coalesce. Now, their defense should be pretty good, at least on the front end. And if you look at it through that lens of the defense being good on the defensive line, you could kind of view the Giants as a crappy version of last year's Jets. Because even though the – look, say what you want about Daniel Jones. He's better than Zach Wilson and always has been. But the problem is the Jets had an elite receiver in Garrett Wilson, and towards the end of the year after he got his legs back under him,

an elite running back in Breece Hall. The Giants are not going to have that unless Malik Neighbors goes nuts as a rookie, which is possible. We've seen giant rookie receivers do that in the past. I'm not all that. We have Devin Singletary way above his ADP. We have him as running back 21. He's going RB 34 in drafts right now.

The one guy who I've actually been drafting, though, quite a bit, is their rookie running back, Tyrone Tracy, who's a converted wide receiver and is now their kind of – somebody who's been making plays for them. He was a fifth-round pick out of Purdue. So fifth-round pick at running back, sometimes you're just like, eh, but other times if they have opportunity, you look and say, okay, maybe we can work with something here. Tyron Tracy might have an opportunity. He's been making plays in many camps. He's been the guy I've drafted the most. I've dabbled in some like Darius Slayton and

Wandale Robinson, but ultimately this is one of the lowest projected teams we have across the board in 2024. Yeah, and that's how I think everyone should be looking at the New York Giants as an opponent for week one. It just screams the Vikings go to New York and don't come away with a win because they always have their letdown games against teams like this. But is there any universe where you could see this going the other way? Uh, I think it's very hard based on what Daniel Jones has done in the past and you bring up the offensive line. I feel like the offensive line is when you're analyzing from a fantasy perspective and what teams are going to do, maybe the most forgotten about or underappreciated part,

because if you're picking running backs a lot of times you have to go I'm picking their blocking and the running back because that's what's going to result in those yards and yards per attempt and so forth and the other part of it too is if Daniel Jones gets sacked 30 times in six games then he can't throw it to people it becomes much more difficult for him to push the ball down the field. Not that he ever did that in the first place. I mean, I think from a fantasy perspective, neighbors, a big part of his discussion is can they get the football to him?

Because there's not a lot else there that's scary. And the offensive line is such a struggle. But is there something that we could be missing? Because every year we get surprised by a team. We go, oh they're not gonna be any good and then somebody's better than we think uh malik neighbors being really good it could seriously help matters here in addition to look they had they have a second year center and they brought in two new guards now i don't think anybody's anticipating jero um jermaine Eloumenor and John Runyon Jr. to be like these great, massive improvements, but maybe they could be improvements. They keep

Daniel Jones upright. He runs around. Brian Dable gets a little bit of his play calling mojo back, and all of a sudden, the Giants look to surprise people, and that defense keeps them in games, and maybe it gives them a little bit of confidence early in the year, But offensively, this is one of the worst rosters in the NFL. It most certainly is. So that's why I gave you the Giants to start off with, just to get you warmed up in the bullpen. Like, let's just let's just get some throws in before we get to the big's a beast at the beginning of the year outside of the Giants. But there are some really fascinating players from a fantasy perspective on these teams, starting with San Francisco. Now, I was looking up projections.

Nobody thinks Brock Purdy's going to do it again. Let me try. Let me try on Brock Purdy's going to do it again. I'm going to just gesture at Kyle Shanahan. There he is. Look at him. McCaffrey. I assume Iuke is back on the team since they haven't traded him yet. Other receivers, Debo Samuel. I don't see any change with George Kittle. What's different? Why won't Brock Purdy do the thing that he did last year again when everything is the same?

So I think we're still looking at talent level for Brock Purdy and people maybe having a little bit of a take lock on Brock Purdy. Now look at Brock Purdy. Ultimately, there are still points last year where I sat down and I'm like, the Jesse Pinkman, the GIF, he can't keep getting away with this. It feels like he threw more dropped interceptions than anybody I've ever seen in my life. And indeed, they're like highlight reels of Brock Purdy at Iowa State throwing some of the funniest interceptions you'll ever see.

But that being said, let's look at this unbelievable stat our guy Scott Barrett dug up. The quarterback leaders by yards per pass attempt over the last six seasons six seasons with a minimum 600 pass attempts here are the top three in order Brock Purdy Jimmy Garoppolo and Nick Mullins what's the what's the common denominator and Viking fans are familiar with Nick Mullins, by the way. Speaking of somebody who threw a lot of turnover-worthy passes, I mean, my wife had Justin Jefferson in – or, excuse me, if she didn't have Justin Jefferson, she was starting Nick Mullins in her fantasy semifinal.

The game he threw, it was against the Lions, I believe. He threw for, like, 400 yards and 38 interceptions, or at least that's what it felt like. She's like, this guy's ridiculous. Like he's, but like, even though that wasn't in a Kyle Shanahan coached offense,

he's played in one. These three guys have all played for Kyle Shanahan. Tell me what's more likely, more likely that the 49ers drafted the next Tom Brady or Kyle Shanahan, who's coaxed these great seasons out of Nick Mullins, these great seasons out of Jimmy Garoppolo, and these great seasons out of Brock Purdy, is a wizard at dialing up the passing game.

It could be both, but we know Kyle Shanahan's great. Jimmy Garoppolo got benched. Nick Mullins. I mean, what he's, he's, it's even on the Vikings roster against still. He is. Yep.

He may be QB too, depending on how far along JJ McCarthy is. We'll get to that. Um, I mean, the guy's a wizard at calling plays. So the 49ers are going to continue. Brock Purdy has done nothing but put up numbers in the NFL.

And while you think he might take a step back, that's where the fantasy community kind of has him, as taking a little bit of a step back but not too big. We have him at quarterback 16. I think you can argue that's a little low because he's quarterback 12 by ADP, and we have some of that being offset by the fact that we have him throwing more interceptions this year. We have him throwing 12 interceptions, but look, he comes out, he executes the offense, he plays with confidence, and he's got great receivers. The assumption is Brandon Iyuk himself

has said the most likely outcome is I'm a 49er. He wants to stay with the 49ers, but he certainly wants to be compensated for playing for the 49ers, but he certainly wants to be compensated for playing for the 49ers. They can trade him, they can trade Debo, but they also reinforce with Ricky Pearsall. Jawan Jennings is a great bench receiver, and George Kittle, when one of those guys misses time, puts up elite numbers, it seems, every game. So the 49ers, I think it's going to be more of the same for them. I think a big question you might have is their offensive line. I know our NFL scout who's on staff, Scott DiBenedetto, former scout for the Browns, ranked them second in the NFL.

49ers fans themselves were like, this is ridiculous. They're not the second best line in the NFL because they blame the line for them losing the Super Bowl last year. Offensive line is always an easy scapegoat for teams, but look, Trent Williams might be the best lineman in football and the rest of the line's a question, but I don't see any reason this team shouldn't again be one of the best teams for fantasy football. The concern you might have, though, is by average draft position, at least on best ball drafts, three players on this team are in like the top 18 or 19 picks,

McCaffrey, Ayuk, and Debo. And eventually, it doesn't matter how good Kyle Shanahan is, there is only one ball to go around. And eventually one of those guys is going to have a goose egg and you're going to pay for it. Yeah, you know, with Purdy, by the way, I was calling up here what I wrote yesterday because I took a bunch of projections, including from fantasy points, and looked at the Vikings' schedule of opposing quarterbacks.

And here's what I wrote for Brock Purdy. I wrote, the fantasy universe seems to be channeling Jesse Pinkman here. He can't keep getting away with this. So you and I are thinking the exact same way. But I did notice a stat here, which I will read to you. There are only five other instances since the merger of quarterbacks averaging more than nine yards per attempt when throwing over 400 passes. And even when quarterbacks like Dan Marino, Peyton Manning,

Aaron Rogers, and Matt Ryan achieved such a feat, they drifted back to the pack the following season. So I think that Brock Purdy will continue to be excellent because his brain works in the right way for Kyle Shanahan. And he has something that Jimmy Garoppolo does not have, which is mobility and a playmaking mindset. If Brandon Iuke is not there, it is a problem though. I don't think that they're trading him, but it's not going to be the same. This could be one of those last years where they have this freakish group. Who knows how much longer Trent Williams plays? Who knows how much longer George Kittle is this great?

And we did see last year when they had to play, I think, without Debo against the Vikings. He was not the same. Brock Purdy was not the same when he was missing even one weapon. So if somebody goes down, this could entirely change for Brock Purdy. I'm kind of a, I buy into the idea that you can be part of a system, a system quarterback, and that's still awesome for you. And you could go to the Superbowl, but I think that his weaknesses will show up if they have things go wrong that didn't go wrong last year. Yeah. Brock Purdy. I think it was, there was that stretch,

I believe that started with the Cleveland game. And then of course the Vikings game as well, where he had either an offensive lineman out or like you said, weapons out. And it just did not go very well for him. The one thing about him that stands out to me though, and this is a big positive. And I go back to a term Greg Cosell taught me years ago.

And he said, used to say it about Eli Manning. You know, we used to make fun of Eli Manning and the bad interceptions. He said Eli Manning had positive amnesia or selective amnesia. If he made a bad throw and turned the ball over or in Brock Purdy's case got away with it, that's not going to sit with me. That's not going to sit with Brock Purdy. He's going to go out and he's going to keep playing his game.

And at a position where confidence has such a massive, massive factor, I think that's good for Brock Purdy. You know, you look at a guy like Dak Prescott, who I think everybody would say is objectively a better quarterback than Brock Purdy, but you see how, like, sometimes in those big spots, like, and not just picking on him, but for the Cowboys in general, oh, this bad thing happened. And it just keeps getting worse.

And the pick six here and the interception there and the sack there and the bad play call that doesn't seem to happen with Brock Purdy. And that's a positive I've seen from his first two years in the league. So I had this discussion with the Lions writer the other day. I asked him if he thought that the history of a team seeped into the mentality of whatever was going on at the current team. And he said, no, it doesn't really matter. But I think that it does.

And if you play for the San Francisco 49ers and Kyle Shanahan, you believe at any given day team, no matter what the score is, we're going to get a bunch of points because we're the 49ers and Joe Montana played here. And I have thought that the Dallas Cowboys, so many years of failure since I was a child watching them succeed and their owner and the mountainous arena, you know, stadium that they play in and their fans and everything else. I think that it weighs on them sometimes. And it weighs on Dak Prescott sometimes. And it just feels like Brock Purdy is out there playing like nothing can bother him. And it's a really remarkable skill. So I think that if he does run into some problems this year, the fantasy stats may go down. I would not expect them to be as high, but I still think that they're going to be very successful. Now I want to talk about the Houston Texans here because every fantasy person in the world has tattooed CJ Stroud's face to

their chest. They are in love with CJ Stroud. This is going to be one of the best quarterback seasons we're going to ever see here. It's going to be magical. And they expect him to build on this year. I'm overstating this, of course, but it does make sense. They trade for Stefan Diggs. He is a king maker for quarterbacks. I have seen it in front of my own eyes with Case Keenum. And then he goes to the Bills.

They win four straight divisions with Josh Allen throwing him the football. But where does he fit in? What a week is it the Vikings play them? Week three? Week three. So he's still going to be working it out here. Where does Stephon Diggs fit in when you have Nico Collins now as being the guy for C.J. Stroud? And by the way, there's a really valid question about that

because Tank Dell, I just talked to Cody Stutes, who covers the Texans down in Houston, and he said Tank Dell, I just talked to Cody Stutes, who covers the Texans down in Houston, and he said Tank Dell, despite the injury last year, despite the fact that he was shot in a, fortunately, a very near tragedy this offseason, he's going to be 100% for training camp, so he's going to be ready to go. The question now becomes, who is Stefan Diggs? The Stefan Diggs from the first half of last year or the second half of last year? From weeks one through nine last year,

Diggs led all wide receivers in receptions, and he was the wide receiver four in fantasy points per game behind only Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson, two of whom got paid this offseason and one of whom is angling to get another year or two added onto his contract, that being Tyreek Hill. But after they fired Ken Dorsey and went to Joe Brady, the targets absolutely dried up for Stephon Diggs. He had just eight targets per game from weeks 10 on into the playoffs. He earned 10 or more looks in just two of his final 10 games with Joe Brady.

He fell from the wide receiver four all the way down to the wide receiver 58 in fantasy points per game with the change from Joe Brady, from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator. And now our guy, Brett Whitefield, who does our data charting, he said Diggs looked slower. Like it looked like he had lost a step, like he was hurt. Now the question is, did he not like the direction of the new offense? Was he upset that, you know, Dalton Kincaid's getting

more work or James Cook is getting more work and Khalil Shakir and all this. And maybe that's the case. We do know he is mercurial and he is not afraid to wear his emotions on his sleeve. But the question becomes now, which version of Stefan Diggs are the Texans getting? Fantasy players think they're getting the version who's kind of in between because he has to compete for targets. He has the disadvantage of playing with two receivers who already work well with CJ Stroud

in Nico Collins and Tank Dell. We have Stefan Diggs, we have him at wide receiver 23. He is the highest projected receiver we have for them. and Tank Dell. We have Stefan Diggs. We have him at wide receiver 23. He is the highest projected receiver we have for them. And we have Nico Collins at wide receiver 25. So those are both well below ADP. Stefan Diggs ADP is wide receiver 15 right now. Nico Collins is wide receiver 14.

So we're essentially saying something's got to give here. And oh, by the way, they also traded for Joe Mixon. So they're projecting to have an upgraded run game as well. So we have all three Texan wide receivers in our top 30, but we also have them all three below ADP. And this was the league winning offense last year because everybody was cheap. This year, you got to pay up. And we think the best bet is probably just to pick CJ Stroud.

I like Nico Collins the best out of these three. I know our projections say otherwise, but our projections have a formula that I'm not smart enough to understand. That's our guy, Chris Wecht. He does all that stuff. But I i like i like nico collins the best i wouldn't be shocked if stefan diggs though has a resurgent season um just because pride is a huge thing for him and he views this as maybe a chance to get to the super bowl so i've been dabbling in stefan diggs in some best ball drafts but fantasy drafters think it's somewhere in between the elite guy that he was for so many years and the not afterthought that he was in the second half of last season yeah i've never known him to not play hard even when

he's unhappy so i would guess and i thought this too from watching him last year that he was not only banged up but also the amount of attention that every other team was able to give him with no other options it wasn't like when they had you you know, Cole Beasley there, Emmanuel Sanders, they had a couple other weapons. And when those guys left and there was not a whole lot else, it was like, there was so much attention put on him. That will not happen. He should get a lot of one-on-one matchups and early in his career.

And at different times, Diggs is interesting. Cause at different times, when you look at his yards per reception, some years it's like 10 and some years it's like 20. And it depends on how the offense was going. This, to me, screams a bunch of underneath stuff. Nico Collins is going to terrify opponents with the deep success that they had. And Diggs left in the slot one-on-one with nickel corners is just abuse. I know even if he's slower, still his footwork, the amount of work that he puts into that, he's so good in those tiny spaces.

So I think that he's going to have a big year for them. What about the idea of sophomore slumps? Are you a believer? Are you a buyer? Because I was trying to look this up. Harvard did a thing on it, trying to look up if a sophomore slump was real. I found a Rolling Stone article from a few years ago where they deeply researched the sophomore slump. Nobody can really put a finger on it. In fact, most quarterbacks that play well as a starter, even decently well in their first year, usually just become really good NFL quarterbacks. If this is CJ Stroud's baseline, he's going to be a very good quarterback for a while. So if this ends up being the best year of his career,

or at least this is where you can expect him to be, the Houston Texans are going to be very proud of their investment. I'm not projecting a massive blow-up season, but I feel like that's more likely than a massive regression. Like you said, as a matter of fact, the second year quarterback starting, like that's kind of been a theme in recent years of guys who have just gotten way better. Like even like a guy who's fizzled out since Carson Wentz, Jared Goff got way better in his second year, obviously with the upgrade in coaching, that certainly helped. So these are guys who end up, Joe Burrow, coming into the league

and he gets hurt. And then all of a sudden in his second year, they're Super Bowl contenders. So I feel like that, I think you can just counteract that with all the evidence that these second year quarterbacks come in and are better in their second season. So I'm not going to worry too much about that. If you do want to say CJ Stroud is a guy who doesn't run much, he's a pocket passer, and now it's very expensive to draft him and you want to avoid him because of that, that's actually more valid than projecting a sophomore slump, in my opinion. Yeah, I agree. And what they've been able to give him, the coaching staff that they have, the fact that they did not lose Bobby Slowik and they have the

same offense and they could just go forward with that. All of that is pretty significant. Right. They didn't. Yeah, they didn't. Right. They didn't lose Bobby slow.

Right. He's still there. The office coordinator. So I want to look at a couple other guys here that are going to have large significance to the Vikings, but I can't go any farther without Jordan. Love. Tell me something in the Jordan Love

debate I haven't heard. That's a challenge here. We've had the Packers guests on. We get the fan questions that are hating on Jordan Love and say, you're giving him too much credit. Give me some information. Give me a take that is different about what Jordan Love is about to do next year. Okay, so I think you kind of ran the gamut with Jordan Love last year. There was like the right away, he was like, oh man, pretty good. And then there was the middle of the season slump. And then of course there was the phenomenal end of season run that he went on. Jordan Love last year ranked fifth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per start. And he hit at least

17.5 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games this was despite both Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave missing most if not all of that stretch of games so he was top six in fantasy points per drop back beating players like Shroud the aforementioned Shroud and Kyler Murray, who are now going ahead of him in fantasy drafts. And look, this offseason, Christian Watson apparently went to the University of Wisconsin and found out that his hamstrings have a physical imbalance, which the physical therapist we have on staff said that's not actually not that common. And there's no study that proves correlation. But at the very least, the Packers think they might have some sort of explanation for why Christian Watson keeps getting hurt and here is the other thing about Jordan Love Scott Barrett does an unbelievable study at fantasy points that compares how teams performed against certain positions defensively from a

fantasy points perspective and then removes that that team's own game to create a strength of schedule model, he has, Jordan Love, the single most improved quarterback schedule by that model in the NFL this season, which makes it seem like he's a pretty good bet to pay off his quarterback 10 ADP. Look, I'm not here to get into the Packer Viking culture wars about Jordan Love. I happen to think Jordan Love is a pretty darn good quarterback. Fight me over that. I know it's very frustrating for Packers and Bears fans and Lions fans, but that improved schedule strength I think is going to be a fantastic boon for Jordan Love.

And he's got just a really good, deep set of receivers. And that's without any one of these guys really emerging as a number one. Jordan Love said at the beginning of last year, we don't have a number one. We don't need a number one. He was kind of right about that. It was whoever stepped up for the Packers any given week. Okay, so I will say you did bring something new to the table with Christian Watson's legs being different lengths

or whatever the heck it was. So that was their hamstrings were different sizes. Yeah, the hamstrings were different sizes, right? So that maybe he has to wear different special pants that have something else on one leg than the other. Maybe it's wider. I don't know. What does one do for two different

sized hamstrings? Is there a solution to that? I'm guessing you work out the one without working out the other. I don't know. There is a way. I guess you come back from surgery and your muscles atrophy, right? So there has to be something to work out one specific hamstring. But that's what he said. And he says he thinks it's going to be better um i'm not necessarily buying that but hey uh he's a guy who's produced when he's been healthy which is never but uh you don't have to invest too much into the packers offense to get a piece of these guys which i like very much they're they're actually one of my most drafted players they have my most drafted have my second most drafted running back in

best ball so far and my most drafted wide receiver so far. And the wide receiver I've been drafting most is Dontavion Wicks, who's actually the cheapest of them. So that's the guy I've been drafting a lot of. Well, and I think after seeing them last year in the second iteration where they demolished the Vikings at home, that Jaden Reed is going to be the number one wide receiver. I think that that's going to happen and sort of work its work its way out. I don't know what's going to happen with Christian Watson's hamstrings, but I also think that he has limitations to his game where Reed, I think, can be a more all around receiver that you lean on.

But to your point, it's not really a culture war so much as Vikings fans going, dang, again? That's especially painful for Bear fans, I'll tell you that much, because the Bears have never had the sweet taste of a franchise quarterback. One of my hot takes this offseason that sounds like a hot take but really isn't a hot take is that Caleb Williams was going to break the Bears' single-season passing record this year. And, I mean, considering they've never had a 4,000 yard passer and how frequently that happens these days, it feels like something that sounds absurd on the surface, but really has a pretty high

chance of happening. Well, I think about how John Kitna in like 06 went for 4,000 yards on a three win team. How has that never happened for the Bears? It doesn't make any sense. I don't understand. I guess they pride themselves on defense. But, I mean, even a guy, like, sticking with the Lions, a guy who's maligned and has topped, like, worst free agent signings list, which I think is unfair, by the way, but Scott Mitchell threw for 4,400 yards one year with the Lions.

I mean, like, every team has had that magical season. You remember that year, obviously the Vikings with Randall and Randy Moss. And then of course, Dante call pepper. You remember all those, those like even one random year where you're like, man, that guy was amazing that year. Yeah. The bears have never had that. I mean, it really doesn't make any sense. And you're right about Scott Mitchell. I mean, he was a good free agent signing for them, just melted down in that playoff game against the Eagles, but this just proves that I'm old. Uh, so I want to throw a couple of teams at you and you tell me who is the scarier team for the Vikings? Is it the New York jets, Indianapolis Colts,

or Jacksonville Jaguars, which one of those three teams, because they're all on the schedule naturally, are more concerning for the Vikings? Because I could see an argument either way. If Rogers returns to anything that reflected MVP Rogers, the Jets are very scary. I don't believe in that. If Anthony Richardson becomes Cam Newton 2.0, which I kind of do believe in that, anthony richardson becomes cam newton 2.0 which i kind of do believe in that that's pretty uh frightening and if trevor lawrence finally has this season that they just paid for then that also could result in these teams being more challenging than they look from right now on the schedule so i i am gonna go with the easiest option here, and it is the Jets.

Now, look, they just said Aaron Rodgers didn't go to mandatory camp because he was on a trip to Egypt. Now, if I were to say, like, you were on a trip to Egypt, I would have figured you want maybe get some good food and go look at pyramids and the Sphinx. I mean, Aaron Rodgers probably did that, but he also could have been sleeping with Pharaoh Khufu, you know, like just lying right next to him for a week. Just just trying to, I don't know, absorb some of the ancient knowledge that he's had. But, you know, you look at the Jets, the fact that they won seven games last year. The fact that they now have two guys who are being drafted as first round fantasy picks in both Garrett Wilson and Brees Hall. And they did this one, seven games,

despite league worst quarterback play. And with that defense, which even the biggest Jets hater would say, all right, yeah, maybe Aaron Rogers is, is washed up and whatnot, but that defense is good.

Even though Hassan Reddick is cosplaying in japan now as well um like this is true stuff you're not even joking about any of no this is all true about the jets but yeah i mean like if you get 70 aaron rogers that team's gonna go into the playoffs like they their defense is that good and they have enough weapons around aaron rogers and on and on the other side as well let let's just say Aaron Rodgers gets hurt again or a mummy captures him or something. They got Tyrod Taylor this year. And that's an upgrade over whatever the heck else they were thrown out there last year.

So I feel like the Jets are a team that can make some noise. There are obvious questions. They have three new starters on the offensive line, and that doesn't even include the first round pick Olufesanu. But that defense combined with the elite skill position, or at least the top heavy skill positions, makes the Jets, I think, a team that's going to be a very, very tough. They were a tough out for a lot of teams, even this past year with Zach Wilson, you know, they beat the Eagles. I guess that was probably the first sign that that Eagles team last year, despite the fact that they were winning a lot of games,

was not anywhere near the same team that went to the Super Bowl. But this is a Jet team that won seven games with Zach Wilson. That is a team that is potentially scary. Aaron Rodgers is available as quarterback 20 in fantasy drafts. People don't want to draft him. I kind of get that. But on the other hand, if Garrett Wilson produces like a first round wide receiver Aaron Rodgers is going to be better than that from a fantasy perspective don't you think that darkness retreat tomb it was just right there like for the joke I mean you went with a mummy capturing him but if you're gonna do a darkness retreat you could go to a cabin in the woods

or you could go to Egypt or you could cancel your trip and participate in minicamp i don't know it depends on how much you care about football but you know that's my thing here with rogers is i just don't trust him at this point and when quarterbacks fall off oh my gosh do they fall off and somehow peyton manning willed his way to a Super Bowl with the best defense in football. Maybe there's some version of that, but we have seen this historically that you're never quite sure when it's going to hit that wall. And it usually doesn't slowly fade into the distance. It usually goes off the edge of a cliff.

And the man doesn't really look like he's in football shape to me. I mean, I think when he was an MVP, even a couple of years ago, it was probably 20 pounds heavier. It's coming off an Achilles. I just, how can you buy that? He's going to play 17 NFL games when he had tons of injuries, even when he was fully healthy, Anthony bar helped by falling on his collarbone that one time. But I mean, he always has been banged up through his career. I think, I think I might go Colts with this answer because you're right about the Jets defense. If Anthony Richardson is that second year step that does exist for guys who show it in the first year, they could be really good. They almost made the playoffs last year with very mediocre quarterback play. They've added to their weapons.

They've still got a good line. I like their coach a lot. I I'm, I'm buying, I, and I was a big Anthony Richardson believer coming out of the draft. So maybe that influences some of it, but that man looked in total command of their offense last year. Some of the footballs were bouncing their way to receivers and stuff, but even then he was finding some ways to win games i i like that team probably more than i i hear them talked about uh they're

actually good for fantasy too and and jonathan taylor's kind of a linchpin player for me because he's available in the second round and i think you can get an elite receiver in the first round and draft jonathan taylor in the second um and that's really really a solid strategy although of course anthony richardson could vulture some touchdowns for him. You also have to keep in mind, though, that Zach Moss isn't there anymore. He went to Cincinnati. So this looks like a pure bell cow situation for the Colts. The thing about the Colts that you hit on that I really like is I'm not sure we know. I'm not sure we've seen how great Shane Steichen is as a head coach because he never really got the shot.

Anthony Richardson started five games, and I don't think he finished four of them. So I think he played literally one complete game. We saw what Shane Steichen did with Jalen Hurts and that Eagle offense, and we saw the drop-off that the Eagles had when they kept the same system but clearly didn't have the driver. You know, it's – I don't know if you're into Formula One, but like Max Verstappen in the Red Bull is a lot of – a big different animal than Checo Perez in the Red Bull.

And then the Eagles decided to rebuild the car this offseason. So Shane Steichen might be really one of those special coaches like we were talking about with Kyle Shanahan. Not to say he's at that level, but I think he might really one of those special coaches like we were talking about with Kyle Shanahan not to say he's at that level but I think he might be one of those coaches who you just realize is going to get the best out of his team and we didn't have the opportunity to see that last year and maybe this time next year we're talking about Shane Steichen is like this oh my god this guy just did an unbelievable job and Anthony Richardson's an MVP candidate I think that's a fair uh gamble to make I I also think I wouldn't go all in on that because of what little we saw of Richardson

but let's just say this from a coaching perspective I have way better vibes about the Colts than I do about the Jets or the Jaguars of the question that you asked yeah no I agree and I'm always looking for a team that was kind of hovering and we didn't really talk about a whole lot that could surprise everybody the following season. All right, last thing. You've had me on your franchise focus podcasts, but what else do you want to ask me? What do you want to know?

What's the fantasy world dying to know about the Minnesota Vikings that I can provide you with answers? So I think the J.J. McCarthy thing is kind of tired at this point. I think most people, including you on my podcast, expect Sam Darnold to be the starter. I think we know T.J. Hawkinson probably isn't going to be ready until midway through the season. A really polarizing player right now for fantasy, though, is Jordan Addison. Because people are just like, all right, Justin Jefferson's definitely getting the football. Jordan Addison, though, with the change at quarterback to either a rookie or a guy in Sam Darnold, who's frankly and never was, can he pay off as essentially a number three wide receiver at

his wide receiver 39 ADP? That's a very polarizing player for fantasy right now. It is. And whenever I go on like XM or whatever fantasy shows, it's one of the first guys that everybody asks about, like, is he going to take this next step or how much is the quarterback going to impact him? Here is my answer for the fantasy enjoyer who wants to draft uh jordan addison i would be very high on that idea for a few reasons number one kevin o'connell is not going to stop throwing the football that even if sam darnold is erratic he can still deliver the ball to his wide receivers it's not like he is just going to drop back and throw it into the stands or something

like Josh Freeman did that one time. He has his problem is throwing interceptions. It's not that he can't complete passes otherwise. So I think that he's going to lean heavy on him. Wide receiver three is Brandon Powell right now, possibly Jalen Naylor or Trent Shurfield. That's not inspiring. TJ Hawkinson is out. The only other person who can take, I think, targets from him would be Aaron Jones. But if they throw a lot more out of the backfield than they did last year, but that's still not really Kevin O'Connell's way. We have not seen a ton of that over the last two years with Delvin Cook or with Alexander Madison or with Ty Chandler. Usually it's the occasional screen,

but mostly it's just check downs going to the running back. I think that O'Connell builds his whole offense around wide receiver one wide receiver two, and he moves those guys around. He also drafted Jordan Addison and loves Jordan Addison. And here's a funny thing at the last question of mini camp before we all took our break, I asked Kevin O'Connell, I said, Hey, the depth wide receiver position, how do you kind of see that like shaping up in minicamp? And he said, well, you know, uh, Jordan Addison's had a really great off season. I was like, I didn't even ask you about that. That's not even a question. You just jumped right to, I would rather talk about Jordan Addison than anybody else. And the fact that he

grinded through a lot of bad quarterback play last year, still caught a lot of passes. He's improved in how he's getting off the line of scrimmage. He's put on a little more strength. I think all signs point to Jordan Addison having a very big year because outside of Jefferson, who else? And we know that, you know, being a wide receiver too, and a pass heavy offense is still going to get you the football a heck of a lot. Yeah. So I think you've convinced me on there. The big battles being fought between some of the first round wide receivers last year and, and guys not being high on drafting them. The other being Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens, who probably is his team's number one, which we know

Jordan Addison isn't, but on a team that's probably going to throw the ball less. So that's an interesting endorsement. And I will keep that in mind when I do my next best ball draft. You didn't ask me about a deep sleeper, but I got one if you want one. Oh, I would love one. Just keep keep them coming. I'm going to whisper this one because this one might be too good to believe for a deep sleeper.

Robert Tunyon. Oh, Robert. to believe for a deep sleeper robert tunyon oh robert okay i actually because because tj hockinson might be out for quite some time and the best receiving tight end in minicamp by a country mile was robert tunyon so they kept four tight ends last year they might do it again and if he looks this good in training camp that man is going to play he's more of a receiving tight end that's the role for that position not as much of a blocker deep sleep yeah you know we actually added him to our projections after i did my um franchise focus with you because you brought it up on my show and i said i said my viking guy says bobby

tanyan he's he going to potentially have an impact. So probably not somebody who people are going to be drafting in best ball leagues, but I could see him being somebody who, oh, look, week one, the old at, oh, Sam Darnold leaning on his tight end, you know, caught four passes. Like people are always looking for tight ends in fantasy football. There you go. Somebody gets hurt, but you draft somebody in a year-long league somebody gets hurt you pick up robert tunyon i don't know i don't even know if he's

gonna make the team it just looked really good at minicamp uh okay well all right just real quick uh how many games do you think mccarthy plays this year that's a better question for you but i would say i'd say 10 okay you think You think he's going to be in fairly early? Yeah. What's the buy week six week six. That's usually the cutoff point for me. So like I usually say that. And I mean, I guess if they're look,

you don't, I don't think you've signed Aaron Jones. Like if you're not going to try to win some games. So I feel like the Vikings are going to try to win some games. And if they they're doing that, they'll keep Donald in. And if not, they'll go to JJ.

But I'm very interested to see his progress. Our guy, Brett Whitefield, actually, at Fantasy Points, Vikings fans might like to hear this. If you go and look at his prospect guide at our site, which is free to read, he thought JJ McCarthy was the best quarterback in the draft. Oh, wow. And I know that that's a – Aggressive. You know, he's a PFF guy.

You know, he stood on it he stands by it and um i know that that is obviously a polarizing opinion he was the fifth quarterback drafted but um he thinks there's a lot to like about mccarthy and i know viking fans are buying in even if they don't expect him to start week one well one thing i know is that we never know and i don't have a great answer to that. Everyone asks me that. When is McCarthy going in? We got to see some training camp practices before we get a sense for that. Joe Dolan, one of my favorite people. I love going on your shows. This podcast appearance is probably worth like three appearances on your show for me.

So I've paid you back here or you've paid me back or whatever. At FG Dolan on Twitter. There's an underscore in there. Try to find it if you can. And fantasypoints.com. I look at your data all the time. A lot of really interesting numbers on fantasypoints.com.

So I appreciate you, man. And we'll talk again soon. I appreciate it, Matthew. And thanks everybody for listening.