Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - FANTASY SHOW: Does Carson Wentz change the Vikings offense?

Episode Date: September 26, 2025

Mike Schopp of ADP Chasing and WGR 550 joins for our weekly fantasy show to discuss how the Vikings offense changes with Carson Wentz at the helm and what that does for Minnesota's playmakers. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome into another episode of Purple Insider here, presented by Fanduil, and it is our fantasy show with Mike Shope, WGR 550 in Buffalo and ADP chasing. Mike, you know, we think in the off season, we've got it all figured out. We know how this season's going to play out. And then Carson Wentz ends up as the quarterback in week three. and we just look around and go, what are we supposed to do with gestures at everything? Last week, they're ahead by so much.

The Carson Wentz doesn't even put up big statistics from a fantasy perspective. Now facing a Steelers defense that looks pretty vulnerable. Jordan Addison has returned. What are we supposed to make of fall of this? I mean, it's exciting. I'd like to know how you feel, like how optimistic you might be for a Carson Wentz-led Vikings season. even maybe they're a small favorite right in the game on Sunday and a listener of mine on

WGR Bill sent me a stat that I just saw like 15 minutes ago that's kind of incredible he says that since the start of the 22 season so three years plus three games the Vikings have had one game where the point spread was was seven and a half or greater either way which is basically to say almost every game they've played in their last 54 games was expected to be pretty competitive. And, you know, maybe that feels right to you. The bills have had 24. Wow.

Yeah. There are games in the last three plus years have expected to be blowouts or, you know, seven and a half or more, eight or more points bread. Yes, that does sound right. Sorry, we've got dog toy in the background here. I will see your dog toy and raise you one purple lamb shop before the night is out, I think. We'll see what happens. You know, I don't want to take it away from him because he seems like he's having such a good time.

But the squeaking here. So I'm not surprised by that because the Vikings play one score games perpetually. They haven't really this year outside of the Chicago game. They blow out the Cincinnati Bengals. That does happen when you get the best half of football ever played by a defensive. player. And also Cincinnati with Jake Browning had no chance against his defense and et cetera, et cetera, right? But, you know, when we talk about like what's how good can they be, what's the offensive ceiling, what would what would it be like if Carson Wentz plays the rest of

the year? I don't know how you don't just go back to last year. And I don't mean winning 14 games, but I do mean keeping the train on the tracks. You mentioned, uh, the line for this week. Fanduels got it at minus 2.5. Vikings are slight favorites there. And on the neutral site, I think they are deserving of that because of how Wentz looked last week. But we're in a little bit of a weird spot here, Mike. And I know you've been in this spot before.

So maybe we could talk this out together. Remember when E.J. Manuel got benched after throwing that insane interception to JJ Watt. Yep, yeah. What an unbelievable play. And Kyle Orton, comes in and he's playing really well and they win some close games and it's a lot of fun. But I think along that entire time, I remember John Clayton, the all time great John Clayton

came on your show and basically said, I don't know, guys. I mean, it's, it's Kyle Orton. You're like, oh, come on, John, it's fun. They're winning. And he's like, yeah, you know, I covered Joe Montana or whatever. You know, it's just, you know, it's not that big of a deal. I think that, um, Vikings fans feel that way about the current situation where it's like, yeah, you've been through this before, you've seen this happen before, you know that there's a ceiling on this.

And I think that the hope here is that Wents can get them through, but in some sort of position that ultimately leads back to J.J. McCarthy playing. Right. That's exactly it. And I think this comp came up last week when we chatted or recently, like the idea of the veteran, you know, EMT that comes in and rescues the franchise in the short. term until the, you know, the great hope becomes a thing. But interesting with McCarthy and there are other similar situations around the league, maybe Atlanta is one where there might have been a general assumption that the young guy was going to be fine. Yeah. Look, he won a national championship. Look, he has Kevin O'Connell. He has Justin Jefferson. Like, they had Nick Mullins and the pastor not. Like, there's, it's foolproof. And it never is. With quarterbacks, just never is. McCarthy has us back talking about, well, he didn't really throw passes at Michigan.

Like, what is it? And why is he asking Justin Jefferson on the sideline in week one to please not give up on him? Like, what kind of confidence level are we talking about here? And I think the Vikings have maybe very little at this point. It's possible. There are different theories. And it could just simply be an ankle injury that that's the whole thing. But it's possible that they are so nervous about what he looks like, that they're just going to, I mean, if it's anybody as their backup with any experience at all, they might try it. And my point with you last week was, I thought it was interesting that the Vikings didn't take it to later in the week making the Bengals wonder if McCarthy would play. Like, he's got an ankle injury. We'll see. That's what teams do all the

time. But no. However it happened, they were like right out there early in the week. He's out. and then it was he might be out for multiple weeks. And this week, they were in a big hurry to tell you, yeah, he's not going to play this week either. Like, hopefully for his sake, he goes to Dublin because they're going to be there a while in the UK. So I don't know. Like, I think the point you made at the beginning about Orton,

that comparison, John Clayton's point was, the ceiling is only this high, right? You know, good for you. You have a live season. And they did. I mean, they went to December with a chance to make the playoffs, which for Buffalo in those years was something. But when you come off 14 and 3, you don't want the ceiling to be here.

Like you're thinking about championships and this coach is and Jefferson is. And right now the situation looks like maybe it's capped at, I don't know, maybe a wildcard or something like that. Look at Detroit in Baltimore. Look at Green Bay through the first two games. It's going to be hard. Right. Yeah. And I think that the fact that this fan base has been through this so many times before in its history,

They know where this train ends up landing. But at the same time, as you mentioned, the tea leaves of reading how the team has reacted to J.J. McCarthy's injury, they don't exactly scream. We can't wait to get him back. And this is truly the thing that's hard to talk about because, you know, you're listening to the head coach. You're listening to the players talk about it. And there's no real sign of indignance about it. there's no like you guys are criticizing JJ, but he's going to be back and he's going to. And when you talk about, hey, when's the starting quarterback going to come back?

If this was Josh Allen, I don't know who's the backup in Buffalo. Trubisky. Okay. If it's Josh Allen and Mitch Trubisky and Allen gets hurt for a single week with an ankle, it's not, you know, we don't have to answer that question of who's QB1 when Josh Allen returns, right? Like any team with their quarterback that they truly believe in and they're locked in set, they're going to just be like, yeah, our backup's going to be our backup.

And then our starter is going to be our starters. And you guys are going to, we haven't heard a single, it's us creating. Like, usually we hear that in such situations, that's what makes it tricky. But in the short term, from a fantasy perspective, you know, Jefferson and Hawkinson got the ball last week. And Addison's coming back. And if the offense runs, Wentz is going to play because I think COC. believes that his offense works, and he's got a lot of evidence to back it up.

Yep. And, you know, the Steelers are not quite the Steelers that we are used to this year so far. So that's an opportunity for Minnesota, I think, on offense. Like, they've been outgained, I wrote it down, 1,158 yards to 741. They've been out gained by 150 to 200 yards a week, or maybe that's a little high still through three games. But they're, they're Pittsburghing again, like they've won two of those games, five takeaways against the Patriots. So obviously it's tough to lose a game when that happens. So, you know, there may be different, but in the AFC so far, you've had some surprising mediocrity, maybe like the Texans or even the Chiefs. And I think sort of there's a, there's a crack for Pittsburgh to do the same thing

they've done or even better. Like if Baltimore doesn't get right somehow, they got to got to go to Arrowhead this week. The Steelers could be two games clear of the Ravens if they win Sunday, and that happens. So, you know, if Pittsburgh is annoying to you, it's not really, you're not clear of this yet, this state of things. Well, the dogs in this game, Pittsburgh, they have been, I think, kind of an odd case because the way that we envisioned them playing was Aaron Rogers just throws short passes, keeps the train on the tracks and they just play the heck out of defense.

And when you look at this roster and then you look at the production, you're like, I don't, something's not, why is this like this? When you add Jalen Ramsey, when you add Darius Slay, I think we learned this. Who was the team, the Philadelphia team where it was maybe an SI cover that was like, we're going to be the greatest of all time. What do they call them this superhero? They had some name that they had for themselves and then they went like six and ten. I mean, sometimes these things don't play out exactly how you expect, but it is weird to me how bad their defense has been, especially when they've pressured opposing quarterbacks.

They've gotten sacks. They've gotten a couple of interceptions. And I think if you're the Vikings, you have to figure that they are throwing sort of kitchen sink at this game. It's really important to their organization, their ownership, all that sort of stuff. And they're going to want to bring out all the stops for this one on defense. but I haven't really been able to figure out why they, I think they have to think the third most mistackles in the league so far. Maybe that's it. Is that a random thing?

I don't need, I don't know. They should just be a lot better, but I think the Vikings should be looking at this game like put up 300 yards passing for the first time. Folks, I know a lot of you out there either own your own business or you are in a management position where you have to hire people and it can be such a headache. You have to sort through all sorts of resumes of people who aren't qualified. and you end up overlooking some of the best candidates. It's tough. But what is not tough is using ZipRecruiter for your hiring needs. ZipRecruiter finds amazing candidates for you and fast.

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Again, that is zipRecruiter.com slash audio. ZipRecruiter, the smartest way to hire. You know, guys get older. Who knows with Ramsey and Slay and even T.J. Watt. I mean, that could be part of it. But we're still in the time of year where the sample size is really small. And who you play is a lot of it. I like May.

I mean, the turnovers, most of which were not his fault, got the Patriots beat. You know, it's fields and haul in the first week and things, games get weird. Like maybe we don't really know yet if Pittsburgh is different on defense. but I like Minnesota's spot here. And I kind of, this is really narrative street, but I like for them that they know they're going to be there another week. Sort of like we're, I mean, it's not the same country exactly, but it's close enough. You know, we're going to be in the British Isles here for a couple of weeks. Like, they can settle in a little bit.

Pittsburgh has the buy in week five. They took the option there. I don't know. Like, fantasy-wise, Jalen Warren is really the only guy you want to start. on the Steelers. And that's not even so solid. Like Gainwell vulture at a touchdown last week. They've had the rookie Dylan Samson,

but he ends up sitting after that kickoff debacle against Seattle. So Warren's efficiency has kind of always been good, and he's getting more volume now, but he's still also never been like their clear number one. You know, I have a lot of Jalen Warren, and I'm starting him wherever I have him because so far so good. But even D.K. Metcalf, I mean, it's three catches the last two weeks, and you survived it because he scored in each game and was four in the opener for more yards. So I'm not sure if there's really anything in Pittsburgh, fantasy-wise, that's that promising.

In Minnesota, I mean, whence at least, the way McCarthy looked, whence at least gives you a chance to pay off Jefferson, although that's going to be hard at the 103 or whatever he was. but Hawkinson scores last week and Jordan Mason looks super and we'll see what Addison is. I don't know how much do you think they'll like route run percentages and snaps shares. How much you think is like wheels up entirely for Addison?

I mean, he wasn't hurt. Yes. Oh, 100%. Yeah, he was phenomenal in training camp. I mean, that was only a couple of weeks ago and I think he knows how to stay in shape. It's not like he came back from an ankle injury against Green Bay last year and shredded them and played the whole game.

I mean, this is also a guy. who weighs like 170 pounds. I think it's probably a little easier for him than, I don't know, a defensive tackle who weighs 320 or something to get your wind back. And he's been in the building the last two weeks. That was a rule change where when a player is suspended, they're allowed to come back and be around the building and the team. So I expect that he is wide receiver two right back into his old spot.

And I wouldn't be surprised with the attention that goes to Jefferson if he just has a huge game right out of the gate. The interesting thing about Jefferson, so he's only averaging 66 yards a game so far. But of course, they struggled so much to throw the ball in those first couple games. We did see an instant connection with Wentz and Jefferson, which might just be Wence has played a lot of football before. And anyone who's a really good receiver has a connection with him. But he was looking for Jefferson a lot in that game against Cincinnati. And he found Windows.

And had he played the fourth. quarter, had the game been a little closer, I think you end up with over 100 yards for Justin Jefferson. His over under on Fandul for this week is 76.5. So I think that tells us that the folks of Fandul are very much still buying Justin Jefferson. His career average per game, I think is 90 something yards per game. Last year, I think it was dead on 90. I just expect this one to be a fairly close game because Pittsburgh does this all the time. Minnesota does this all the time and for Wentz to have a lot of opportunities to throw to Justice Jefferson. I think I would I mean that's a good number I feel like for

Jefferson this week because I mean Derisaw being back is huge for Minnesota and that worked out and maybe that's the the the butt in this thought but I think like there's there's a game script here where Pittsburgh gets to Wentz. I mean it's the Steelers and he can crumble. We've seen it in the past. I mean the one year he's had such an interesting career remember there was a time when everybody bought into him like he's the next great thing and i have friends in philadelphia and you know win some lose some but i would i would fight them so hard on him like it's all touchdowns guys i mean i know he was a

second overall pick and i know he's your new hero but it's really it's really all third down and touchdowns there's not a lot of meat on this bone it's just it's not it's not solid yet and i was right I mean, by the, amazingly, after they win a Super Bowl with him as the starting quarterback for most of the season, and they flush foals after, they didn't need foals around, it's still like just didn't happen for him there. He was, I want to say, that bad. So touchdowns, I'd sooner bet Jefferson to score in this game at probably, well, maybe around the same odds. I should look. Maybe it's around even money. Maybe probably a little higher, I want to guess.

I like that more, because I'm not sure. You talk about, I mean, what happened last week? Turnovers, yes, but also Brian Flores and the Vikings were too good. It was a mismatch defensively. And that could happen here. Like, that could happen with Arthur Smith or even Aaron Rogers. Like, there's definitely a game where they are all over Aaron Rogers. So then, you know, you might have the same kind of, you know, principle when it comes to Jefferson.

But I like him to score. And Mason, you know, we were talking in the summer about what to do with the Vikings backfield, the Jones injury sort of settled it. But the bet was that Mason would be, you know, to say the least relevant. And he's certainly been that. And with the door, you know, wide open after Jones leaves, what a smash he looks like in fantasy right now. That was a pound the table thing for me. I was like, I just, in training camp, running backs can be hard because no one's trying to tackle him. No one even wanted to get near him. The guy is so fast and violent of a runner.

But I think what I didn't fully realize was he has X-ray vision. Like, he is one of those guys that can see things happen before they're going to happen. And he hits holes. And even if he didn't run over people, I think he would still be a really good running back. But he just so happens to be 511, 2.30, which is just, I mean, that's a fire hydrant running with a football. And they spent the money. They spent the money on him, Matthew, like, which you want to use all the. clues that might be available to you. And that was one. I mean, that that was a bet they didn't

have to make at that time of the offseason and they did it. Right. They traded for him. They gave up an asset. They paid him his money. Yeah, absolutely. And so now he's going to be RB1. But even when Aaron Jones returns, I think he's still going to be RB1 as long as he's healthy. So there's only really two guys on the offense when it comes to these over unders that I would want to lean on. Because even though I think for Jefferson, Wentz is going to try to get him the ball. Addison, Fandul adjusted it a little bit to 41 and a half. That feels like three catches for Addison, so because he's more of a downfield guy. It feels pretty, pretty good about that, right?

But I think T.J. Hawkinson and Jordan Mason are the only guys that I would really expect, more like safely expect to hit their overs. Hawkinson is at 37.5. You saw last week. Carson Wentz doesn't really at this age want to get hit too much. And so he's like, if he doesn't see it, it was interesting to watch on tape like ah hawkinson like it's and that's really what kirk did and so i think it's kind of a veteran quarterback thing 37 and a half though seems to me an easy over and mason though

all the way up at 83 and a half yards for an over under which i think tells you what they think of his early production so what do you think of those two numbers 37 a half and 83 and a half I'd have a tough time going over on Mason. It's also a reflection of or on just how it's all his backfield, right? I mean, like New England, because of fumbles partly, but they went to Stevenson, then they went to Gibson, then they went to Henderson, and you would never have one guy sort of hit that number. But Minnesota, it's so concentrated. So I think that's fine. I'm not eager to bet it.

Hawkinson, I guess I like, you called it last week, and you said the same thing. thing about Wentz and the tight end. And, you know, you saw it. And New England's tight end went crazy against Pittsburgh last week. So, you know how this goes? That could either be they adjust to that or they don't. And they're just vulnerable in that way. It's a pretty, I like that bet too. I like the over on Hawkinson. I'm not going to bet the house on it. But Addison, I mean, that could be one catch. Right. Yeah. No, that's definitely true. So let me give you one more and then we'll move on to some other stuff around the NFL that's got our eye here. A. Aaron Rogers, 202.5 yards.

This feels like, Mike, and who knows what it's going to be like in Dublin. Maybe the past rushers will all slip on the way to the quarterback and he'll be fine. Rogers has looked horrific against pressure so far. The Vikings are a top three pressure team on opposing quarterbacks in the NFL. Van Ginkle's status a little bit up in the air that's concerning to. me, but Hargrave, Allen, they've developed Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez and Dallas Turner had five pressures. They got dudes coming from just about everywhere at the quarterback. I would go under on this for Aaron Rogers. I just think he's going to have a pretty tough time

against this pass rush. I would lean that way. I mean, it's still not a huge number. If he gets one, one big one somewhere, Calvin Austin or even Metcalfe, like, then. it's pretty much, you're pretty much home. If the game gets a little wonky, your passing yards are going to go over, even with everything you said being true. So I'd be a little careful on that. Does it mean anything, sort of that Rogers has played the Vikings 50 times or whatever it is? I mean, it's different players and even coaches every year, so I'm not sure that matters. And he's never played, neither of any of these guys played a game in Ireland before, whatever that's worth.

But, you know, Austin. has been an interesting waivers idea for anybody looking at their waivers as we speak here and trying to find somebody because they lost C.D. Lamb and Mike Evans last week or something like that. McLaurin. I mean, there were some bad injuries for fantasy players last week. But, you know, just a receiver alone. He's been okay. And he got in the end zone last week. So not a household name at all, but somebody to consider. Yeah. I mean, I do think that the Vikings have a problems sometimes with giving up yards because they rely a lot on sacks and interceptions and this has kind of been who brian flores is it's swinging for home runs and

sometimes you end up with the other team getting 350 400 yards that could happen i wonder about just from a tackling perspective like can you tackle dk metcalf can you tackle jalen warren these guys with the ball in their hands austin with the ball in their hands i think one thing Arthur Smith does well is that screen game, but if we're talking about getting huge yardage totals off a screen game, I'm not just not, you're not playing the Jets here, I think. Warren has one 65-yard catch in the, in one game that pads that stat line a lot. They're definitely throwing to him, though. We talk about veteran quarterbacks wanting to get rid of the ball.

That sets up, that's part of Warren's value so far in fantasy is the few catches per week. So let me toss this out there for a bigger picture NFL thing. I'm just, you know, sorting by wide receivers and yardage here. Pooka and Akua Jackson, Smith, the Jigba are having amazing seasons. If you leaned into Smith the Jigba, you probably watch Sam Darnold throw it to Jefferson time and time and time again. Like, yeah, this is a guy who's going to work his number one wide receiver. The rest of the league, though, you're just not seeing crazy huge numbers so far from wide receivers. Poor Jemar Chase is playing with a backup quarterback.

Poor Malik Neighbors is now playing with a backup quarterback, but his starter was horrific. Quentin Johnston is sixth in the league in wide receiving yards with 239 through three weeks. Do wide receivers not matter anymore? Like, what is going on? Because I just don't feel like we're seeing these huge explosions of wide receiver numbers these days. Brian Thomas Jr. is playing with a backup quarterback who starts. Oh, Poo-Poo-P-P-P-P-U. Nico Collins is playing with the backup quarterback who starts.

Hey, I mean... Can I interrupt real quick? Please. Who are we ever confident about for what we know about quarterbacks, though? Right? We all would have said... If you said Trevor Lawrence or Daniel Jones this year, you would have been like, excuse me? It's...

Well, I mean, that's really a Daniel Jones tweet. Yeah, no, I know. I know. He's done really well. He's fallen into a good situation there, better than we thought, better than any thought for for what that was going to look like yeah yeah and Lawrence just continues to disappoint I think even though they've they've won a couple games and Stroud I think is on the hook for this too Caleb Williams has been called out for this like yeah you're right there

are a lot of puzzling young quarterbacks and McCarthy is his own player in that and so is Pennix and there are Bo Knicks so far this year has not been good you know what do we really know is always a it's always the right sentiment I think. I mean, I don't want to make, to draw too big of a conclusion on what is happening at receiver, at least in a fantasy context, because there's still so much left to this year. And football is always fluid. And when we had around COVID, we had teams that threw the ball at will constantly. And even cousins, you know, in that, in his way, was able to do that. There were no fans, they're screaming their faces off to distract them that year.

And you had just a very past friendly year. And I think that was probably apex of it. And Alan and Jackson and Mahomes are so good. And other guys in their own right are so good that defenses just decided they read PFF. They decided that, all right, we're not going to get beat this way anymore. You're going to have to drive the field. And some of these teams are able to do that.

and so I'm on it. So I think the bills are a pretty classic example of this pivot because even with Josh Allen, and here I am on the radio every day saying you don't ever need to run the ball, but what do they do? It's six offensive linemen all the time. It's three tight ends and they're just continuing to further that attitude and that philosophy. And it's been, it's more and more successful every week, it seems.

So that accounts for it. I mean, Alan won the MVP and look at his stats this year. There's not much there. like he's not they're winning games now where they don't even need him and that really says it all about the the way the league has changed i think so you know different circumstances c d lamb was my favorite first round pick of any of them and that looked right through two games and then he sprains his ankle he gives you a zero in week three and he's probably out a few weeks with that you know that that one seemed seemed to fit the mold but uh yeah you got the other guys You mentioned, Nakua is just so good. And he just has to stay healthy. He's had the reason he falls in the draft like he did was injury related, I think. And, you know, he's had a couple things come up in his career.

But that guy is just a beast. It's just even just like what is football right now? Like what is winning football? It felt like in 2020 that we had kind of figured this out. Like, not only just with, you know, leaning into top receivers, paying top receivers. paying top receivers, passing games, deep passing games, especially at that point, were dominating. You mentioned the Vikings in 2019 and 2020.

The best thing they did was run play action, take deep shots down the field to Stefan Diggs, to Adam Thielen, to Justin Jefferson. And it was like, friends, this is football. I talked to, you know, for my book, I talked to Michael Lopez who works analytics for the NFL and is a brilliant guy. And he was talking about how many of the theories. that had been accepted by analytics and implemented by teams made football more fun, like more deep passing, more aggressiveness, fourth downs we've seen really become a big part

of it. And then it's like just a couple years later, now it feels like we've gone in a very different direction where, yes, having the best quarterback in the league gets you to three and O and, you know, back where you want to go. But across the league, it doesn't feel like so many quarterbacks are just driving the success. It's more of they are a passenger of what is around them. That to me is very early 2000s-ish and not so much 2020-ish. Right, right. And I think there's a chance it continues in that direction for the next short while because Fourth Down has a lot to do with it. I mean, if I have a, if I have

Josh Allen, and I don't even need it to be Josh Allen, it could just be a healthy Justin Fields. If I have somebody who can, I can pretty much expect to get me a first down on a third and medium when I'm dropping back to pass. Like somebody like that. Jackson is obvious for this, although incredibly he gets sacked seven times on Monday night. I don't know what happened there. But that just makes the calculus on each down different. And I don't need intermediate routes necessarily. Oh, you want me to drive the field? Then I will because I'm going to use four downs to do it.

And that's Detroit. I mean, Detroit shouldn't ever be stopped. I mean, they're going to run for five and then they're going to throw to St. Brown, everything he gets is short. And that's, you know, third and one. Okay, what are my odds on defense if they're at third and two or something like this? They're terrible because they're going to go on fourth and they know it. And I think teams with quarterbacks who aren't able to carry, you know, the mail are going to want to do more of that.

You know, they're going to want to use fourth down. I mean, coaches have more reason, more backing in terms of their organizations, in terms of the public, to do that. And the math has been sitting there on their desk for 10 years and they've just never looked at it before. So that could make it even more of a running league. I think that's what the math would tell you. Well, I also watch Buffalo. And I think that there's maybe three teams in the league who have an offensive line that will just mall the other team. And when you are forced on defense to put out lighter personnel because you build your roster on coverage and you build your roster with lighter linebackers and the Vikings actually kind of solved this problem with getting Eric Wilson this year as a third linebacker who's been a starter in his career.

Now he's in because their starter is out. But they were, I think, looking at it like we can't just have no depth at linebacker or just young guys or lighter players. to have somebody in there who's a real player as your third linebacker because bigger personnel is being used. And I think what the bill's theory is, we will just overpower these teams who are putting more defensive backs on the field to try to stop Josh Allen and try to create better coverage. And it works. And the other thing is, too, that I think that quarterback impacts the running back enormously. And it's just something that is hard to put a finger on. But when you look at what Derek Henry did. You look at what Sequin Barclay did, what James Cook did. There's something

common with these guys is that the defense is factoring a lot for the quarterback and his ability to run. And I think that opens up a lot for the running back. Yes, I wouldn't dispute that at all. But let me say, and again, you know, speaking from somewhat of a fantasy football perspective, Notice, Sequin Barclay is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this year after his 400 touches at a year older on a good or great team. That hasn't happened yet. Henry looks old, I think. I mean, he broke a couple. He broke the one early on Monday night.

Then he had 22 yards the rest of the game. Couldn't score from the one after numerous tries. Who? Derek Henry? I mean, Cook is younger and still benefiting. But, you know, we've been talking now for a year. plus and how to sort of draft teams, it's too late for that now, and what sort of the overall strategies are. And for me, and I'm certainly not alone in this, I want to avoid old running

backs. And last year, it buried me because they all were great and never left the field. It was just like nobody got hurt. Now you've got a Connor injury for the year. You've got Najee Harris out for the year opening up for Hampton. Conner opens up for Tray Benson. Trey Benson is kind of a must start tonight, I think, in a fantasy lineup against Seattle, you know, maybe not, depending if your team is really good, but I'm going to want to start Benson wherever I haven't. So this year, the thesis is more, you know, at work than it was a year ago. And I wonder if Henry is going to sort of look like Derek Henry again, because there are no exceptions.

You know, we think about the chiefs in close games. Well, they're the exception. And no, they're not. Like this year comes along and they lose close games. And then Derek Henry is the exception. of the running back thing. Remember watching Dan Lebitard, who I, you know, really admire, talk about Henry after the Buffalo game. Like, this guy is superhuman or inhuman or something where he's able, he's a machine. He's not a machine. You know, and teams key on him, of course. It

hasn't really stopped him before, but maybe it's about to. Maybe it's happening. The Barclay thing was that, as you know, that was my big offseason take. Like Sequin Barclay is not going to be able to do this again. And that's why I think Philadelphia, and they lost Mackay Beckton in free agency. Their offensive line is not quite the same. That's why to me they're a lot more vulnerable than they were last year

when Barclay. Plus, when a guy breaks a bunch of 50 yard touchdowns, it's not too likely that he's going to the next year. I think it's a fascinating conversation, which sort of brings us to a couple of games that I wanted to look at. The Los Angeles Rams playing the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts

are kind of the big shock team If you look at their schedule of who they've played so far, maybe you don't get as wowed by what they've done. But Jonathan Taylor's been amazing. His over under on Fanduel for this game, 87.5 against the Rams defensive line. Colts blocking Rams defensive line. Like this one's got some juice, Mike. Yeah.

From a betting standpoint, I would be on the Rams here while, you know, I'm amazed by the Colts. and I think it's, you know, they're not just skating by these teams. The one, the Denver win was close. The other two wins were blowouts, and that's what a good team will do on the road in the division, and they just, Tennessee was no match. But I sort of feel like now, again, from a betting standpoint, the public's going to sort of take notice of the Colts and they're getting points in that game.

And, you know, I'll pass on that. I feel like the Rams are probably the pick. I mean, what a loss by them. last week. But Taylor looks, you know, he looks spry. He looks great. You're talking about the effect that a quarterback can have on a running back. Well, he's not Alan, but Jones is an athlete. Like, that's somebody who can do that. Better example maybe than Justin Fields right now would be Daniel Jones for that third and four kind of, you know, strategy, two plays to get the first down. So I like, I like what that looks like a lot. I mean, receiver-wise, it's still not

rock solid. I guess Pitman would be your number one there. Tyler Warren looks great as a rookie. So very interesting team. But the Rams would be my bet in that game because, you know, you sort of have a team that everybody's in love with and they're an underdog. Well, that tells you something, I think. And the Colts absolutely should have lost the Denver game as well. I mean, they got a penalty at the end, kind of lucked out there. I also think that any time there's a team that sort of comes out of the gate, they become a darling. They hit a wall against somebody and the Rams have to be infuriated about what happened last week. Big lead.

They get a field goal blocked by a fat guy and he's running up. The way that they melted in that game is not really typical of the Rams. So they're going to be, I think, on point. And I just, I think with the Rams, we've probably learned just keep betting on them. They have great coaching. Their quarterback, no matter how many injuries he accrues over the years, is always. going to get the football to his guys, right? And so I was looking at Nakua.

I think Devante Adams has kind of been interesting this year, 67 and a half yards for him, Nakua, 87 and a half. But Devante is, I think he's looked pretty good for them. And that might just go with a veteran receiver playing with a veteran quarterback. Me too. I was drafting a lot of Adams because of the Stafford point, even reaching in a, in a, what is it? It's the pros versus Joe's at FFP, which is like all experts. my partner and I

jumped around on Adams to get him like just try to be different here and we both think like he's in a great situation so far so good on that one more on LA one thing that's different about them again you know maybe more interesting from a fantasy standpoint is

they're not giving Kyron Williams all the work so far this year and they've been doing that you know drafting a Rams backup has been futile since Williams kind of took over that backfield but they're giving Blake Corum plenty of work now. And so he's somebody who should be rostered in most leagues, I think, because the offense has that upside. And, you know, you don't want to start him yet. But he could

be, you know, an injury away from a Belkow or somebody that maybe like a Jalen Warren a little bit has value, you know, independent of an injury. The other game I want to talk about here is maybe you could call it the whoa bowl because whoever loses this game, everyone's going to go, oh they could be in some trouble Kansas City and Baltimore I don't think either of these teams whoever loses is truly in trouble for making the playoffs and still having a chance to correct things we saw Baltimore be the worst defense in the NFL

for like half a season last year they turn it around but I also think that with both Baltimore and Kansas City there are some eyebrow raising things with both these teams and at what point do we look at Mahomes and the decline recently and say there's something there that's happening because every time I listen to anyone talk about it's like hey yeah it's my homes and he is the greatest quarterback of the generation he deserves that he's put up the numbers he's put up the winning and everything else but he's not the best quarterback anytime recently probably within at least the last two years like what are we supposed to make of this is it all worthy is it all rice is it something that's been figured out is the offensive line, like 6.4 yards per attempt for Patrick Mahomes and a one and two record and just totally underwhelming performances is not what you expect from him ever. No. Apologies in advance for this answer, but I think we're about to find out.

I mean, I think the Chiefs had to go into this season wanting to sort of get back to what they were at their peak. And Worthy gets hurt on like almost the first play of the season. and there goes the game plan for that night. And they have no speed without him. They're using Taekwon Thornton, and he's flashed a little bit. A great catch against the Giants. Touchdown against the Eagles.

Second round pick out of Baylor by New England considered a huge reach at the time. I wonder if he goes to dust when Worthy comes back, perhaps as soon as Sunday or not. But they're just old and slow. It's Kelsey and Juju and like, come on. And they can't run it. It's Kareem Hunt.

Like what year are we in if we're talking about Kareem Hunt? Why is that even still a thing? Pacheco maybe doesn't look like he'll ever bake it back from his leg injury. Nothing is happening outside of Mahomes. Mahomes is like they're leading rush threat so far. You know it's desperate times when that's happening. So we'll see. I think it's a pretty risky bet to assume second year Xavier worthy off a dislocated shoulder

and an up and down rookie year is going to go in there and everything is going to be fine. I mean, I've got 10 clips of Mahomes missing him deep last year. And like, is the timing just sort of all perfect now? I mean, he hasn't even played. So maybe, though. I mean, he did come on, you know, big time last year. So I think we're about to find out that answer.

I mean, the Ravens probably shore things up on defense. They'll get healthier. But this doesn't have to be the week for that going into. Arrowhead. And I still, I'm guilty of falling for the sort of the obvious narrative on Baltimore, which is I'll see that they can win a game like this when they do. Yeah. You know, going into Kansas City. Like, I'm not eager to bet on the Ravens as a favorite on the road.

There does seem to be too many instances of even Lamar trying to do too much. I thought that's what happened last week. He just tried to do too much and ran himself right into Alex Anzolone, who Vikings fans No, is that guy might be the most underrated player in the entire NFL. Every time he plays against the Vikings, he's awesome. In that game, he's awesome. He would stop Lamar Jackson and then Aiden Hutchinson tackles him from behind. And the broadcast is like, Aidan Hutchinson, folks, you just get.

And I like, well, what the guy, anyway, the does feel like when Lamar has a bad game, he's going to bounce back. But even Tom Brady went through a little bit of a lull at some point in his career like Mahomes has. I would not say, you know, trade him to the Jets or anything. But this feels like it's going to be a multi-year process of rebuilding the entire team around him. And he's going to have to just fight through it and try to get them to the playoffs. But as we were talking about earlier, it kind of connects to that point is if you don't have the team around you, even if you are the best, you're still going to struggle the way football is being played right now. Yeah.

And I don't know if Kansas City has like in terms of the. backfield, they really don't have, well, I have to stop myself because I wonder about Breshard Smith. Like, if the chiefs are ever going to be ready to go with youth in the backfield, you know, they've always done this thing with Hunt and with Somaget P. Rine and it's like the veterans that even they brought CEH back, you know, we can trust these guys. The bills do a lot of that too. Smith is a flashy speed running back that they're just not using. And the Ravens have Keaton Mitchell. And I thought this was annoying. The Ravens have this sort of of this arrogance that they need to be called on, I think.

And, like, John Harbaugh got a question about how Keaton Mitchell doesn't get a uniform on game days. And he basically said, well, when he's on the field, teams know what we're going to do. Like, so he's behind Justice Hill. He's behind Henry. He's, like, sort of too obvious. When we're using him, we're sort of showing our carts. And, like, what kind of coach says that? I mean, figure out a way to use your best guys.

And Mitchell, his whole career has been this dynamic runner, looked at it in the preseason two, and now he can't play because, like, Justice Hill is around, and they're just, they don't really, they don't have, basically their attitude is we don't need to care, we don't need to do this. And how many losses will be enough for both of these teams, any winning team maybe, just like, they're set in their ways. And what, what changes that? How many, how desperate do the scenes have to be? for you to come off of what you've,

you know, had for so long. And Henry's efficiency would, you would think play into that, whatever they do with Mitchell. But I'm, I'm biased because I've just got all these Keaton Mitchell dynasty teams and I can't even get the guy,

you know, into games yet. Reminds me of Ty Chandler. Reminds me of a guy with the football on his hands who's special, but they can't trust them. And I think he is probably also referring to the past protection of, well, you know,

we're not going to keep our running back in for past pro if we've got them out there. But that is, a strange explanation and there's probably another one that is not being said anytime I think most times unless it's Doug Marone that if a coach says something where you're like what the heck is this guy talking about it's probably something else that he doesn't want to say but you know I don't know football coaches are weird yeah uh okay well who do you think wins that game before we wrap Baltimore Kansas City yeah um I I like I said to you before I never want to bet against the Ravens I also don't want to bet on them minus points in Kansas City.

So I guess I'm stuck. I'll stick to my larger philosophy, which would be Baltimore. They should be the better team. Just, you know, are they going to blow it? If they don't blow it, they win. Isn't that pretty much true of every Ravens game? Did they blow it against Detroit? Or was Detroit just too good?

Detroit was too good, I think. Yeah. There was the Henry Fumble. And how he reacted to that was really weird too. Like his sort of, you know, shocked. expression and falling on the bench like he did made you really wonder what he was thinking but nothing really happened from that i mean they kicked a field goal they were still in the game and then you know detroit took care of business there two and a half point favorites on fandul and they punted when

detroit didn't fourth and mid baltimore punted and detroit went yep as they want to do yeah i would probably um i don't know this this feels like this feels like a game kansas city wins like historically when we're all going oh kansas city they're toast now and then they just find a way. But we will see. So great stuff, Mike, the fantasy show every week. Mike Shope, ADP Chasing here, as always presented by our friends of Fandul. And we will do it again next week.

Thanks for your time, Mike. Before we wrap, too soon, Super Bowl 9, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tulane Stadium. They were meant to play in the Superdome. But as John Fissenda said, on a 25-minute NFL Films. I could probably just recite for memory. It was unfinished. So they went to Tulane State. This is Franco Harris, RIP, signed helmet from Super Bowl 9.

Sorry, Vikings fans. I don't have a Vikings mini helmet, as we talked about last year, because they don't have a Super Bowl win yet. But, you know, that can change someday. Well, when you get the Carson Wentz signed mini helmet, then we'll talk then. Yes, Isaiah Rogers, Super Bowl MVP. Yeah, I can see.

All right, thanks, Mike. Bye, bye. Thank you.