Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - FANTASY SHOW: Does Carson Wentz change things for T.J. Hockenson?

Episode Date: September 18, 2025

Mike Schopp of WGR 550 joins the show to discuss the Vikings' change at QB and how that could impact T.J. Hockenson, as well as the rest of the Minnesota offense. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. This is the Purple Insider Fantasy Shope with Mike Shope from ADP Chasing and WGR 550. And of course, presented by our friends at Fanduel. We've got a lot to dive into. We got new quarterbacks in Vikings versus Bengals, which we're going to discuss how that will impact. this week's game. We've got lots of overunders to look at there. And then around the league, some young players that maybe haven't come to fruition just yet and what's going on there. And we've got some great football games going on this weekend. But Mike, I don't want to

waste any time with this. Carson Wentz is now the started quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings in week three, just as we all anticipated. The over under for Carson Wentz is 200.5 yards. Do we think that Kevin O'Connell is just going to say, hey, big arm once, liver die, let's go, fire it up, because I kind of think that's what's going to happen. I would too, of course, as you know, and I say this all the time when we talk Vikings, I defer to you on this. Like you're the guy, you're the guy I call, but I think so too. I mean, does the Jones injury impact that?

I mean, I can buy Mason as a workhorse. I think he's sort of built for that, but he hasn't been efficient yet. and you can do whatever you want against Cincinnati and they're at home. And it's not a guy that's coming out of nowhere, Wentz, of course. He's somebody that has experience, you know, he's flawed, but I could see it. Jefferson, we found the first quarterback maybe who is not able to unlock Justin Jefferson. And Jefferson, to my eyes, made no secret of hiding his frustration on Sunday night in the Atlanta game. So I think he might be ready for a new, you know, driver, so to speak.

And, yeah, I mean, maybe O'Connell wants to get back to that kind of offense, too. Without Jones, might that make it even a little bit more likely? I think it makes it a lot more likely. And you're not talking about facing the 2000 Ravens, 85 bears. We need other ones that we can reference. How about Seahawks, 2012? How about almost literally NFL, any NFL defense ever? I mean, doesn't it, but doesn't it feel like to, in recent weeks, recent even years, the last maybe two years, we just have seen defenses take the power back a little bit and, but I don't think Cincinnati is one of those teams that has taken the power back fully.

They have one guy who's really good at sacking the quarterback and then just a bunch of other people who are out there. Joe Flacco put up big numbers. Jacksonville could have scored 40 points on them if they could, you know, catch it. then so i think that just a jefferson can catch it his over under on fan duel in this game is 70.5 and when i went back and looked at cars and wents and i know you you fantasy freaks you got to do stuff like this so we we all have to do it uh when he was with the colts in 2021 what did the man do he threw that football to his wide receiver one michael pitman had a huge year with carson wences his quarterback i expect the same thing from him and just a jefferson By the way, let me slip in, please.

What's funny about one thing, maybe many things are funny about Wenz's career. But like the bills have had two or three bad home losses since John McDermott eight years ago. And two of them are to Carson Wence, one with the Eagles, and then one with Indianapolis, where Jonathan Taylor had five touchdowns. And like the bills have just not lost games like that at all in, well, since Allen, since Allen's second year at least. But anyway, yeah, I think that's sort of a. a correlation. I mean, if you're betting on Wentz, you're betting on Jefferson and you're betting against the Bengals defense. I think you're a little bit betting on Browning in this game. And what a shame to have Chase and Jefferson National CBS games Sunday at 1 o'clock and both

quarterbacks are out. But it's interesting in its own right. I wonder about Hawkinson, Matt. Like so far in two games, kind of like no Addison, no clear wide receiver, you know, Adam Thielen, they're trying that. That's been two catches maybe last week. and none in week one. They've been, you know, they were behind trailing game script against Atlanta. You see anything in Hawkinson that worries you? I do a little bit. And then I also think I everything is worrisome with the way that J.J.

McCarthy played for most of the first two games. I mean, nobody had good fantasy numbers from this offense when you are legitimately like the worst offense in the entire NFL over the first two weeks when your quarterback is getting sacked as many times as he did in the first game. couldn't find wide receivers. When he did, they dropped the ball. But I think the Falcons game was much more concerning with the way that he was not releasing the football and just hanging in the pocket and taking sacks and all those things. It's very hard if you run 49 plays for anybody to have a good fantasy day. It's just not going to happen. And so I don't know because

you know, there are all 22 sleuths who have been watching Hawkinson and being like, well, is he coming out of his breaks in the same way that he used to, and the answer is probably not. I mean, just ripping your ACL apart is not something, sometimes we treat it these days, like, oh, it's an ACL, he'll be back next year, it'll be fine. It's not always perfect. You're not always exactly the same person again, and I think that that's very reasonable to think. I also think that when Wentz was with Philadelphia and he had Zach Ertz, he threw that

dude, the football time and time and time again, and a lot of times with tight end, what their production comes down to is just does the quarterback look at you? And there were some games last year where Darnold did and Hockinson had big games like against Chicago. And then there were other times where I felt like his eyes were much farther down the field. I think we will find out. But to me, a veteran quarterback who's coming in for his first start when he only got here three weeks ago, that just screams tight end to me. That just, that says just like lean on those seven yard. That was what Sam Bradford did. That's how Kyle Rudolph had a massive season in 2016, especially if Christian Derisaw is not playing

in this game, then you're going to have to get rid of the football quickly. So I think we'll see. I still want to say wait and see on T.J. Hawkinson because everyone did not produce in the first two weeks. Right. It's tight end or it's running back out of the backfield and he lost that guy. And I'd wonder about Jones going forward. I mean, they were quick to put him on IR. I saw him on the sideline after his injury and he's sort of walking around. He knows. So, He's been around a long time, too. Well, that's fair. I mean, in terms of fantasy, you've got, man, I really loved,

I love the top two guys, Bowers and McBride. And, you know, Bowers had a little bit of an injury, but you can't complain yet. McBride is still McBride. He does tons of production, but never scores. And then you have the guys in the middle, which were a fine fallback. Hawkinson is one of those guys.

I mean, Kittle was tight end three, and he's out. Evan Engram was a fun idea for a lot of fantasy players as the so-called Joker in Denver, but like he got dinged up to and he's not even on the field. Like that seems almost dead already. Then you have Tucker Kraft who was sitting there a couple of rounds later and he might be the tight end one this year with how he looks and how Green Bay is doing. So, uh, yeah, very interesting times.

Well, Tucker Kraft is a guy that I feel like is sort of match made in heaven for Matt LaFleur because he can use him in some of those motions. and he's good with the ball in his hands. I wouldn't, you know, toss out Sam LaPorta for getting a bunch of catches either. Hey, Detroit still knows how to play football, everybody. They didn't forget after one week. And maybe Chicago doesn't know how to play football. I guess we'll see on that.

But it's very, it's very challenging to try to evaluate. Like, is it, I mean, we're talking about what, micro seconds, if that's a thing of, like, is his turn, is his burst? Is his explosiveness? Is it the same? Is it not the same? Am I just thinking it's not because I know he had the injury? Or is it just that J.J.

McCarthy couldn't see a thing against the Atlanta Falcons and it's weak too. But I do feel like the tight end has made a little bit of a surge around the NFL this year. So maybe Hawkinson. And look, I mean, if they're going to pressure Carson Wentz, he's going to have a backup center in there for sure, I think. And if it's a backup left tackle, but he's going to have to get rid of the football. To your point on Aaron Jones, this is, this is the fear. Like you and I go back and forth on this. I'm looking at Jonathan Taylor and being like,

how you feel and Mike about your old running backs? Jonathan Taylor looks great. But then at the same time, this is the running back reality. It's the risk you take. It's the dice you roll when you decide to bring back Aaron Jones. But that's why they traded for Jordan Mason. And for this week against Cincinnati on Fandul,

Jordan Mason, 73 and a half yards over under we going over on that i am he's going to play constantly right like who's who's the back is somebody named more who's even the backup uh that would be moeldy more is that who you mean uh that would be uh that would be zay scott and uh hey that's my weakness those those those people who watch i guess he goes by z i mean his name is savior but it's with a z which messes up my auto correct every time. I like Mason.

I mean, I think you want to think with the Bengals, like I was going to say about tight end, I know in week one, Harold Fanon as a rookie in his debut, had a nice day. He did other things, too. He even took a snap at quarterback in that game, which I think bodes very well for him and his usage. And you have Injoku there,

but Breton Strange last week played constantly. But the Bengals kind of give up everything. And if they can't keep up on offense, that's what you kind of need here. And we're going to talk about Chase. maybe, like he was the 101 in four out of five fantasy drafts, if not, you know, a higher percentage than that. And he still had a monster week, even without Burrow playing three quarters of that game last week. And in a pretty even game, too, they were never that far out

of it. So that is nice to know about Chase. But, man, it's a blow if you built, you know, you had the first pick in a draft. You almost had to take him. And then you sort of built your team around it and you know with or without burrow i most of my chase teams i had plenty of them i got the one a lot but didn't take burrow hardly ever because i still would rather have like a drake may or prescott or even justin fields in that in that range but i think mason should be in for a heavy workload they're favored they're at home trust the coach and i just don't really trust the bengals at this point even though they're two and oh folks there's no way to prepare yourself for hair loss when it happens and you either end up frustrated or in

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of a bengal's point i think there's been some disappointment early on about leaning on jordan Mason, it took them three quarters to figure it out against Chicago. And then there were opportunities when your quarterback is struggling like that to just pound away. But, you know, their best run of the game got taken back by a holding by a rookie tackle who had never played before and then grabbed on his first play out there. And I think that that's also been a major issue here is when you don't have your offensive line, okay, if it is a veteran quarterback, they could figure out ways to work through that. And it affects them, but maybe not as much. If it's, Kirk Cousins, he's been there many times.

If it's J.J. McCarthy, that's just so different from having your complete offensive line, which I think at 100% the Vikings have one of the best in the league. They just have not been 100% yet. Going to Jemar Chase in 2023 when Gunsling and Jake Browning was out there, Jamar Chase still had 100 catches, 140 targets, 1,200 yards, 7 touchdowns. I think that if you drafted Jamar Chase, Number one, that you should still feel okay. Like you, I mean, you're not feeling quite as great as if he's got Joe Burrow.

But one, I was just talking with a Bengals analyst about this. They're going to throw him screen passes. They're going to get the football into his hands. And a major factor in this game is the Vikings tackling, which was bad against the Atlanta Falcons last week. They did not tackle Bejohn Robinson. I think that they could be in for a long day trying to tackle Jamar, as well. I think you can feel any way you want. You can't do anything about it. You're probably, almost definitely not getting the, you know, the bowl case if you built a Bengals team like you got

last year and it was cheaper last year. I mean, Chase was still a first round pick, if I recall correctly, but still like a lot of winning teams were Chase, Burrow, and or Higgins teams and, okay, you had the perfect recipe, you had a great offense and a terrible defense that went all the way down through the end of the season, you know, being competitive and trying to win, and that's what you want. I think, by the way, this year so far that shapes up to be Dallas, and that's not completely out of left field. Like their defense, especially after the Parsons thing, was maybe going to be bad, and you knew what you had in Prescott and Lamb and sort of even Piggins and Piggins. Pickens, Higgins, Pickens, and even Ferguson there. So that was a little bit, that was getable. But, you know, the Bengals, you could, you might be optimistic.

You might be pessimistic. You're probably not getting that sort of tournament winning ceiling with Cincinnati now. But you could stay alive. And I'm in a high stakes league where the Chase team had Higgins and Burrow. And Wednesday night is Wavers night. and we were strategizing because we needed a quarterback on our team and there's Browning and Browning's probably going to play the rest of the year if he stays healthy so what kind of a bid do we want to make

and my group was pretty much against it and I'm like, look, don't worry about it because that team won with Chase and Higgins and even Gisicki actually is going to just empty the clip on Browning and they didn't and I think that that's probably good but I don't know how you win a tournament without the quarterback to go with like your top receivers. going to be really tough. So in a home league, you're not doing anything about Jamar Chase. You're pretty happy to put him in. You're not benching him for Ricky Pearsall or Keon

Coleman or somebody like that. You just got to see what happens. And I look at Cincinnati's run game. And this is why I might agree with the people who went all in on Jake Browning, because they don't really have one. So they're going to do something. And the last time that he was in there, he just threw a lot of screens and got the ball in those guys' hands and through interceptions. And It was a wild ride with Jake Browning. It probably will be again. The guy that I think could suffer here is probably T. Higgins because for me, T.

Higgins requires a little more on the armed talent side. Though the last time they played the Vikings, Higgins made one of the most disgusting catches I've ever seen. But still, I don't think that a downfield receiver who averages 16 yards a catch quite fits as well with what they're going to do with Jake Browning at their quarterback position. So, you know, we've talked about, I like this game where we've talked about how we imagine a game playing out. And then sometimes it's just very different like it was, it was very close to being the game that we imagined against Atlanta.

But they needed to convert in the red zone. They needed a few more first downs to score. What's, what's this game with Cincinnati and Minnesota here? Because you mentioned it, and it's kind of funny. It's like, Jim Nance is going to be here. And you just, they're like, I'm sorry, Jim. This should have been good. It's not.

I don't know what to tell you. I'm sorry. Can we play golf? Like that's, I don't know. What's the game we envisioned here? I want to think there will be points in this game because of all the talent. Even Chase Brown.

I mean, Chase Brown, you mentioned the Bengals running game. It hasn't amounted to much yet. But I think he's still a good player and just got to break one or fall into the end zone, whatever it is to sort of get him off as a mid second round pick. Like that needs to happen. But, you know, you can also, if you can imagine, you try to picture what a high-scoring game looks like, it can be big plays.

It can also be mistakes and turnovers from new quarterbacks that end up in the other team's end zone. That can happen, or your own end zone, I should say. Like, that can happen too. So in a dome with Chase Higgins, Jefferson, all the good players on the field, kind of want to bet on points. What could undo that is if the offensive lines are just not. capable and you have that possibility here on both on both sides uh it's part of what it's part of the borough story with the bengals and you know wents can take a sack like the best of them so then you end up in like a 1916 sort of thing that game in the last bengals viking's game

in cincinnati was wild i think that was that mullins that day for minnesota it wasn't browning though was it burrow was a great it was browning it was browning yep and what's overtime uh Let me see. I think that that's right. Or it ended at the very end in one way or another. But that game I said was the slowest footballs have ever traveled to quarterbacks like in the last 20 years because neither guy had any sort of arm. They both made really funny and strange mistakes.

The defense is messed up. Yeah, that was a, it was a really entertaining game. And that's why what came to mind for me was the Jets and Steelers week one, how we all just thought that's going to be the ugliest game we've ever seen in our life and I think the over under on fan duel here is 42 and a half for this one so they're not really expecting a big scoring game which just screams 3835 like give give give jim nance give tony romo's time to scream at the top of his lungs about jake browning and so forth the vikings are three point favorites uh would you go with them here i think so it's an interesting line

and a very tough game to predict because of two new quarterbacks. All you need is 23-20. That was an overtime game in 2023, 27-24. I think it was Ty Chandler was the guy I had where it kept happening. 23 for 132 in a touchdown plus three catches for Chandler. I remember just not being able to watch that game, but everything you wanted or needed to happen did happen where like, all right, field goal to tie it, let's keep playing.

And then you get more and more points out of it. So, you know, that 23, 20, this game, then you nudge past the 42 and a half total. I'd have a, I don't know if I'd want to bet the over, but I would not bet the under. That was the game that we thought Ty Chandler was their future RB1. And it wasn't. So let's talk about some other things around the National Football League that have caught our eye from a fantasy perspective. I think young players are always of great intrigue because you can either hit a home run

or you can strike the heck out. And there's a few guys that have been a little more strikeout than home run so far that are high, high draft picks, that being Travis Hunter and Ashton Gentie. And let's start with Travis Hunter. Are we sure that Jacksonville's coach knows what he's doing? Or are we sure that Trevor Lawrence has this magical upside that keeps being talked about and has never ever actually arrived? Do his receivers not want to catch the ball? Do they think that Travis Hunter is only a slot receiver? Like I've got a lot of questions about what's going on there in Jacksonville.

But the biggest critique that I keep hearing is that they want to use him. Someone said, I wish I remember who I saw say this, that they're using Travis Hunter like he's Cole Beasley. And that doesn't make any sense because he has long speed, contested catchability. And if they're going to do it that way, I don't think he's going to be all that needle moving this year. well he they were both high NFL draft picks at least hunter was not a high fantasy draft pick this year but he was a sexy one rounds five or six i'm hanging in there on jacksonville matthew i feel like cohen has a pretty good body of work and they did put up numbers against the bengals the bigger question i think sunday was how did they not win the game or even cover with browning playing most of it he threw three picks too and they still couldn't couldn't get home. But what happened in week two was they had an injury in their secondary. And Hunter ended up playing way more snaps on defense that he did in week one. And that was always part of the, you know, the puzzle with him is, well, if they go down a man on defense, then they

might do that. And they did. And they are, you know, they're still pretty productive. The maybe bigger story there is what is wrong with Brian Thomas Jr., who was a late first round pick in fantasy and also a late first round pick in real life, had a phenomenal rookie year. If you look at it a little bit more closely, it was Matt Jones that unlocked Brian

Thomas Jr. for Jacksonville last year, less so Lawrence. There's a very bad look right now with him. And if you watch his targets in the game against the Bengals closely, it's not good. A drop. The body language is terrible. My colleague

get ADP chasing Jacob Sanderson tweeted about this. Like, it was really concerning. And I don't know how deeply rooted that might be. The day of or in the postgame or the next day, Liam Cohen was right to like, well, he's got a wrist injury. I think they're already scrambling a little bit with Brian Thomas Jr. In theory, that should help Hunter. And he still played two NFL games ever.

It's not like a perfectly set up offense with a great history and reputation. So there should be a little bit of turbulence. as he gets into his career. I'm hanging in there with them. ETN has been strong. They traded Bigsby, which opens things up for my most owned player in fantasy football this year, Bachel Tootin, who looks like a stud.

When he gets the ball, he had a great touchdown run on Sunday. Strange looks like maybe a win as a late round tight end. You might be in a league where he's not owned. I would want to get on that. And, you know, hope you got to cross your fingers on Thomas and even Hunter that it all works out. Yeah, the vibes were very,

very, very bad and strange with Lawrence and with Liam Cohen. And there's some of these coaches who are offensive wizards, the Josh McDaniels thing, where they can really draw plays and they can really call plays. But when they have to run the whole operation, it's not exactly the same. So that's kind of how it looked. And also, I mean, we do reach a point with Trevor Lawrence where it's this might just be who he is, the magical upside. I think he's always been a little slow at seeing things.

and then just being like oh now i see it and then ripping the ball as hard as he can i don't think receivers like that very much um his receivers have taken some big hits because of that and i wonder about brian thomas just being like i don't i don't want that and also the the injury that's that's sort of the injury that you're talking about is sort of what people are accusing the vikings of doing with mccarthy where it's just like um it was really bad he's hurt um which could could be the case like well he was playing was he on the injury report or was he not I'll be at Bill's Dolphins tonight, the Thursday night game, week three. Last year, week three, I was at Jacksonville, Buffalo, and the bills started great in that game.

But, you know, here's Trevor Lawrence, still at a point in his career where he's got a national audience. It was Monday night. Let's see what you got. And it was bad. You know, you want to see, I think I accept the point you're making about coaches and, you know, game plans and everything else. But the quarterback has to be the right guy for you. It has to sort of get what you're trying to impart, what you're trying to. to sell. And that's pretty fickle. And so far,

Lawrence has been through enough guys where you want to just see him take it on himself and get it done. And the game against Buffalo, they're down maybe 34 to 3 with 10 seconds left in the half. And it was just like this weird play where he scrambled right and threw the ball out of bounds on fourth down just to sort of get it over with. And if you think of the elite quarterbacks in the league, which he was sort of projected to be, they would just never do that. I mean, it would just be like, this is, this is on me. I'm just not going to do this give up nonsense and throw balls into the dirt and just different things to sort of get through a bad night. So, you know, it's really past time for him to start to show that. It really

hasn't happened yet, as you say. Well, I also think that if you have one bad coach and they fire him, okay but even then what are the percentages on a young quarterback who gets a coach fired and then like how often does that quarterback ever work out if you get any coach fired probably right probably chances probably the your chances to succeed plummet the minute that first coach gets fired i mean even like sam darnell they fired todd bulls right away with the jets uh in fact it's kind of happens like every single time right exactly and normally I guess Mayfield has eventually turned it around, but normally that means that things are not good. And now we're on coach number three still asking if it's the coach.

I just mean that the vibe between those two guys seems like already off. And we're in week two here. So I think that that's not great. Ashton Gentie, they clearly want to throw the ball. And I guess we all thought Pete Carroll's like 74 years old. He's going to treat it like it's 1992. But I don't know if Gino Smith ever checks into a. run. I think he just likes to throw the ball. Can someone explain to me the internet's fascination

with Gino Smith? I've never seen it. I've never understood it. I've seen him in person. And I'm like, he's a, he's a time. He's a, he's a fun time. He's a friend that you go hang out with at the club for a while, but you're not like, you know, going on vacation with each other's families. He's a fun watch if you run into a game accidentally or he's on TV. But I don't understand the fascination with him getting ranked high by people as a quarterback every year. He's just not that good. And I think it's going to affect Ashton Genty, how much they're going to be behind in games because he throws interceptions and have to throw all the time.

Yeah, I think Monday night is a pretty good study for this because I think what he does that people really like is there are plays where just amazing accuracy out of nowhere into into trouble like there are highlights with gino smith and everybody likes an underdog and a reclamation story and he's been that you know even anthony richardson gave you these amazing deep balls at times if that's not a unfair comparison and you know the internet went wow and his coaches went nope i just there's and look what that looks like now where daniel jones quote daniel jones ex viking goes in and like they're they're rocking and rolling so i think smith is is a good story.

And I think he's, I mean, I accept the analytics that tell you he's been the most accurate quarterback in the league for the last couple of years. The problem is what are the other plays? And what you got against the Chargers where you got three picks, it could have been more. And those are huge plays. Those are plays where you'd much rather, like you said, check into a run and just sort of move on. Easy to say. Like, who knows, all the things that are happening on a play and what he sees, first play was deflected, I think, or into traffic. know. So I think the floor is a little bit too low for a coach's taste when it comes to

Gino Smith. I think the issue with Genty so far is what we know about running back productivity, which is if they can't open up holes, forget it. It doesn't matter who you're running back is if the offensive line is getting manhandled. And through two games, the Raiders rank 32nd in rushing yards before contact, like they're in the negatives. Gentie is getting hit before the line of scrimmage on average on all of his runs so far. So kind of like, what is he supposed to do? He is the sixth overall pick. They should want to find that if they can.

You know, that's what a lot of this season is about with the Raiders. The division is live. They did lose the Charger game, but they won the opener in conference. Kansas City is 0.2. So somewhat like with Jamar Chase, there's not really much you can do in fantasy. When it comes to Gentie, you just got to hope that, they sort of are able to open things up. Maybe a healthy Bowers makes that happen.

But even that is iffy, Matt, like they're, you know, they've used him weirdly even through the preseason into the regular season in terms of snap percentages. Now he has a little bit of a knee injury. And I feel like I'm sucking out a little bit already with Bowers through two games, rather than having him just sort of be the beast that he was as a rookie. Yeah, the Raiders, uh, remaining the Raiders, I guess in some ways where. Shocking.

It's, it's kind of like. like the bears where every year people talk themselves into you know who could really be fun this year you know who could really turn around this year as the raiders i just need them to actually show that to me but your point about uh the offensive line how it impacts the running back this was something that uh our friend eric eager who now works in the league uh came up with years ago which was um how often do you have a perfectly blocked run and how often can your running back make an unperfectly blocked run actually work. And the answer is that not too many running backs can make

unperfectly blocked where that just means one person had a negative and made a mistake. If that's the hard part about leaning on the run, which we all love the idea of like, oh, just lean on that run game. But if one person makes a mistake, your running backs yards per carry go down by like two and a half yards. And so you need that. And that's with Philadelphia is a great example.

Seekwan Barclay is an unbelievable football player. but he averaged four yards of carry with the Giants and then six yards of carry with the Eagles. It's pretty clear what was going on there. So it might be a long year for Ashton Genty. I think that's James Cook. I mean, I think James Cook is getting down the field before he's even touched and he's good enough to once he gets to the second level to even score. Like that happened in the jet game. So the bills have been so well, for one thing, durable and sturdy on the offensive line.

Nobody's gotten hurt. They're using three tight ends. just really leaning into their running game and against teams like the Jets and maybe tonight Miami will see they just can't handle it. Here's another thing that's been pretty well proven. I think in the NFL is that if you have a running quarterback,

it highly impacts who the running backs production. We see that. I mean, Derek Henry is great. And then he's unstoppable with the Baltimore Ravens. And even in Philadelphia, the same sort of thing. If you have to factor for Jalen Hertz, it's going to make it a lot harder to stop Saquan Barclay.

And Ashty just doesn't do that. Running backs to me are the most environmentally impacted player on the entire field. And I think he's in tough. Okay, we got a couple of games that I am just super, super interested in here. The Los Angeles Rams playing the Philadelphia Eagles at Philadelphia, where the divisional round game that was epic in the snow happened last year. The Eagles in this game are three and a half point favorite. have we been impressed so far with the Eagles?

Like I know that they have won a couple games here, but I saw a crazy stat that they haven't had basically any downfield passing whatsoever. Right. So far, uh, do we think that like there's still the Eagles and they deserve the benefit of the doubt? Or is there may be some concern here. Jalen Hertz is over, under on Fanduel for this game, 190.5, which most Super Bowl champion quarterbacks don't have one 90. 0.5 over hunters.

No, in the Rams defense, it's done a nice job so far. They gave the Eagles a tough time in that playoff game, as you referenced. I was going to mention that same stat. They have two passes of 10 yards or more so far through two games, but they're also two and oh. I mean, they've gotten away with it a little bit, especially in the Dallas game. Dallas, I think had them, but the drops. And then you get a Kelsey.

I mean, if that's a drop, it's close to a drop in the end zone. Those are game changers. and that's the NFL, where a team like Philadelphia could be 0 and 2 without too much trouble at this time, but they're not. So I don't love the game from a betting standpoint. I feel like what I try to do is, okay, well, there are always match-up considerations and adjustments the teams make. But I think about this with Buffalo a lot. I mentioned them running the ball. Like, do they go into a season thinking they need to change that?

They set a franchise record in points. They won 13 games. My answer is no. and their answer, I think, is no. And Philadelphia, what should they really be trying to do that's different? Goddard missed the game in Kansas City. They really don't have a third passing game option without him, and they got through the game anyway.

Are the Rams a team we'll see that can press them? And if that happens, that could be, you know, if you want your bet to be on Puka and Devante Adams and the Ram offense, The Rams even for the first time ever almost since Kyran Williams split up the backfield worked last week, and that worked out for them with Lake Corum. If you see a game, you know, like you said before, try to predict how a game is going to flow, if you can see a game where the Rams can score and force Philadelphia out of what they want to do, maybe there's a little bit.

Couldn't you imagine the Eagles getting over under one and a half false start, tush push penalties in this game after last week's discourse. The NFL copyrighted the videos of those plays. Like, that's weird. Very sensitive issue right now. Puka has been great. Adams has been great. I'm not afraid of the Rams here,

but you can also, as I kind of talk out of both sides of my mouth in this game, see a game where, all right, well, let's get the ball to A.J. Brown because we haven't done that yet. And then he scores twice and, you know, you feel like an idiot. So the NFL trying to make sure that people don't share on social media, the clear video. Yeah, wow. You know, if I could make money off it,

I would just do that with the 150 neutral zone infractions I see every week that they willingly ignore. Yeah, all the time, all the time. But that's football for you. I do think that a lot of people got sold on banning the push after that after you realize that one of their key advantages

is that they just jump early. Well, then, yeah, if you guys can't litigate, that then that's a that's a them problem but right well do you have to start jamar chase yes do you have to start ashton genty yes first round picks do you have to start second round pick a j brown yeah it's not it's not feeling good but that's where we're always trying to figure out are you overreacting are we overreacting i also wonder about you know philly's defense now they were good against the kansas city chiefs who i just feel like haven't played good offensively in three years now

at this point. So without their top receivers and then I mean it's again sort of at some point like has there been something figured out or is it just they're old or their offensive line isn't good. I think the Rams can move the ball is kind of the bottom line here. And I was

watching Milton Williams play for New England and going you know, I think that they're going to miss that guy. I don't think that they're quite as nasty up front as they were before. And And Matthew Stafford is really great at dealing with pressure. I feel like this is a Devante Adams kind of goes off game because they put so much attention.

Adams over under is 57.5. I would be kind of all over that in this game. Eagle secondary, a little bit shaky, too. Chiefs couldn't take advantage of it. Thornton wide open. Mahomes missed them by a lot before they did hit him for a touchdown. And in week one, Dallas was just crushing. So I could see the Rams being on that level.

Okay. The last game I wanted to talk about is one that I just cannot wait to watch, which is Detroit at Baltimore. And Baltimore is a five and a half point favorite. 52 and a half is the over under. Is it even enough? I mean, 52 and a half is pretty serious. But is it even enough? Hold on.

Let me see what they got for Lamar and Jared Gough. 267 and a half yards for Jared Gough is that's, you don't see that too often pushing 270. And two 15 and a half for Lamar Jackson. just feels to me like this could be one of those very similar to Buffalo in Baltimore where it's just wild and crazy and fun. I've gotten a lot wrong in my years, but I've made a rule since 2019

to never bet against the Ravens. And, you know, that's worked out okay. They're implied total in this game is 29. That's nuts against a team that won 14, 15 games last year and scored 52 points four days ago. I mean, analytics loves the Ravens. The betting markets always love the Ravens. And I think they've been paid off, just not in the playoffs.

So, you know, it's outdoors. Scary for golf. I did not see how they did it against Chicago, except for in the stats. And it just feel like the Bears thing is so weird and unsafe. Yeah, it's very weird, very weird. Like, I want to give Chicago some of the credit for what Detroit just did, but recognizing that the Lions have had a juggernaut of an offense. I'm excited for this game, too.

I never go against Baltimore. Jackson against the Browns. Okay, they scored 41 points. Derek Henry ran like 20 times for 30 yards. And he threw four touchdown passes, none of which were to flowers. Mark Andrews has like two catches in two weeks. That's another name for that Hawkinson segment where we talked about Evan Enger. and tight ends that you might be really worried for at this point.

And I think when they get Isaiah likely back, we'll see what they even do with Andrews. I mean, he had a pretty bad, well, it also could have counted as a touchdown, but a drop against the Browns. I just never, I never go against Baltimore. I'm a little just selfishly disappointed how they've treated and talked about Keaton Mitchell to this point, who's been so dynamic as a runner, but John Harbaal went into a thing last week about, well, you know, when he's on the field, defenses kind of know that we love them and are going to feed him. And so they're not even using him yet. But yeah, I want to be on the Baltimore side here.

That sounds like the Sammy Watkins is a decoy thing that we had for a while there. Jared Goff, outdoors versus dome, if you're wondering, 103.1 QB rating for his career in a dome, outdoors 91.0. Of course, he played outdoors in Los Angeles as a rookie and had about the worst year anyone can have as a rookie. So maybe that might have impacted those numbers. His win loss is kind of the same. And he played outdoors in Los Angeles. I'm sure it's going to be nice and warm in Baltimore. And he'll be fine. If it does, I don't know if there's any weather. If there is weather, I would go lean heavily toward the Ravens in that situation. But if there's not, I think that this one should be really fun. Anything else on your mind before we wrap it up for

this week, Mike? It has been a very interesting couple of weeks. I think, you know, if you're a fantasy player, oh, and two, this is the week where you've got to get a win or else you've got to figure out a new plan, some other through a trade or something like that. I always say about fantasy teams that are off to losing seasons as a team that might be doing well in the standings. I'll make them an offer.

I'm not a scam artist. I always want it to be fair, but it's going to favor me or else I'm not going to offer it. And I say, well, you don't have to do this, but you've got to do something. And so figure out if you get to 0 and 3, what your plan is to make the playoffs. I mean, I've got plenty of teams already

where it's a little bit of a scramble, and this is a big week. So I think this week, you sort of want to hang in there with your priors and what you think you know, just matchups, weird things in two games can sort of define the narrative, but it doesn't mean that you're cooked.

And we've talked about certain specific situations today where like, all right, what have I really got here? AJ Brown is an interesting one, And there are many of those through two weeks. But be ready to be active if this week doesn't go well, I would say. And that goes for the real teams as well. Yeah. And now with 17 games, it's not quite O in Tombstone like it used to be.

But if you are struggling through three or even with the Vikings, you go to one and two, it's getting late early. So ADP chasing along with WGR 550, have fun with the game tonight. it's that one you know you never it that should be yeah that's that yeah okay uh thank thank you for your time as always mike thanks matt