Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - FANTASY SHOW: Will the Vikings lean into Jordan Mason?

Episode Date: October 22, 2025

Mike Schopp of ADP Chasing and WGR 550 in Buffalo joins for this week's Fantasy Show to discuss whether the Vikings will lean on the run game against the Chargers. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, presented by Fanduel. And we were not going to skimp out on the Purple Insider Fantasy Shope with Mike Shope, WGR 550 and ADP chasing, our resident fantasy expert. And we got some fun here because we're going to be able to go through all of the props for this game and preview Vikings and Chargers. as well as talk about things around the league. I'm just curious, the broad question before we get into some of these props and everything else, Mike, what is the number one discussion going on right now

in the fantasy world? Like you are really like in that space with all of the greatest experts on earth in the fantasy world. Kyle Pitts used to be the main discussion, but what is it so far through six or seven weeks here? Man, I don't know what number one is. is, but in terms of a player, since you mentioned Pitts, I think Sequin Barclay is a pretty good one

right now. And you just saw him. We have Derek Henry, too. We've talked about how after a season in 24, where if you faded old running backs, because you read all the, you saw all the charts and you read all the articles and you knew, like, you know, there's an age cliff or a number of touches, 1,500 touches, different things. And then you ended up looking at your, your bank account at the end of the season and it was empty because we lost to all those guys. We lost to Jacobs. We lost to Camara. We lost to Connor. We lost to Mixin, you know, the same names. Now we'll see what happens with Henry or even Barclay, but I'd like your take on this. There is a conversation happening about whether he's washed. And, you know, the heavy workload last year, the age, he's had

injuries. For Philadelphia, not to be able to run the ball efficiently is really stark. I feel like that game was a tough one to lose for Minnesota. I mean, they had the yards, they had the advantages, you know, in terms of the numbers, but they got beat on a couple deep balls. And I think they probably accomplished what they made their top priority in that game. So maybe I'm wrong, but Barclay, what do you do about it in fantasy football? Nothing. Maybe in Dynasty, you can flip them if your team is bad because he's not been more productive. That's what we're doing in Dynasty right now. I think if we're on it is trying to figure out,

all right, is this team going to win money or not? If it's not, let's get out and play for next year, get some draft picks, even in redraft, you know, try to figure out some path forward. But, yeah, Barclay is an interesting conversation right now. What's your take? I love how you circled over to tanking and fantasy, which is something that I didn't know happened.

But let me get it. to the Barclay thing. So my observation from watching the tape back is that they can't really block in the interior of their offensive line. And this is the always and forever problem with running backs because you go back to Sequin is last year with the New York Giants. What do you average like 3.9 yards per carry? Like there's nobody that's so special that if Landed Dickerson is banged up and Cam Juergens gets hurt in the game and you're playing a backup, like there was a play where, and I think Jalen Redmond's a tremendous player for the Vikes, he's really emerged, but there's a play where the center has to reach block the three technique. And it's not

an easy block to make. You have to snap the ball and then you have to get to the outside shoulder of that guy, but starting centers do it all the time. Their center just did not get there at all and Jalen Redmond tackle them for a three yard loss. Like, there is nothing you can do if you're Saquan Barkley to change that. And I also think that when it comes to home runs, when it comes to 50, 60, 70 yard runs. I mean, those are kind of random. And sometimes those hit a bunch in one year and don't hit a lot in another year. Seguan had a few runs where he got out and he got kind of loose and they curaled him.

And it was like, well, last year he jumped over somebody and ran for 50 more yards. Like, I don't know. Yeah, sometimes those things just don't work out. But I really think that the systems and blocking and health, health on the offensive line, Last year, they had their entire offensive line healthy for the entire season. And I think that that helped Saquan a ton. Mackay Beckton was there. He's just an absolute house of a human being that people couldn't really handle a guard

that was 6-7, 340 and could move like that. And then you try to change that out. It's just not the same. Even like Jonathan Taylor, did we think Jonathan Taylor was going to have 10 touchdowns and 700 yards and average 5.3? I mean, he's always been really good. But I don't know if he's ever been this good. And I think a lot of that plays into how that team is built right now.

That's a great point. I mean, you never know, right? As cliche as that is, you really don't ever know. Why was Jonathan Taylor a late second round pick? Well, I think we were a little bit bored with him. There's always, we had to have Gentie. We had to have Ladd McConkey. These are guys that, I mean, at least Gentie went ahead of Jonathan Taylor in draft.

Now he feels like the guy that if you don't have him, you're going to lose. And why didn't we like him more? Bortem, but also the Colts. The Colts were not supposed to be good. They were supposed to be starting Anthony Richardson because they drafted him in the top five the year before. And that's what you do. If you're a competent organization, you don't just throw away an asset like that. But apparently he was so destructive and so terrible.

that they just had, they felt they had no other choice. So they bring in Daniel Jones, who had the Kevin O'Connell experience and, you know, I mean, I love this. I love how unpredictable it is. But generally, to put it mildly, people did not expect Indianapolis to be an efficient offense. And if they were not terrible, they still were going to be using a quarterback who loves to run for touchdowns. And this year, it's Taylor who's hitting those home runs. And Daniel Jones, I just saw from Doug Farrar. is putting up the most efficient season under pressure of anybody like ever so far.

And that's just wild, you know. We had Gino Smith and his renaissance, if that's even right, because was he good in the first place? I mean, we had the darn old story. We have Baker Mayfield, and now we have Jones. And I don't know. I think they look pretty legit. And if it continues and Taylor stays healthy, which is never a given, He's going to have, I mean, he's the offensive player of the year.

You don't even have to do the gymnastics this year as productive as McCaffrey has been or, you know, JSN. Taylor is going to win that award if he stays healthy and nothing dramatic changes with the course. Yeah, he's having like a LaDainian Tomlinson type season. But when it comes to Jones, one thing is that that pressure number will definitely regress. So that will be interesting to watch throughout the season because he's still Daniel Jones in there somewhere. But, you know, I think when you, we talk about like running backs and the circumstances, I always first look kind of at the blocking, but also schematics and how you want to play as a team. Like they have Shane Steichen who was there with Jalen Hertz and they built that whole house around Jalen Hertz based on his vision. And a lot of that is playing the quarterback's ability to run with the running back, which we've talked about that impact with Lamar, Derek Henry and different running backs.

but also they want to run play action all the time i can check on what their play action numbers are but it feels like they're running play action every other play which if if you're right i mean good if you can but also uh if you're going to do that that means that you're usually going to be setting up the run a lot right so it's how much do you lean on that you know that running back as well not just his success but i also think that these two things play off each other so if you're hitting play actions and you're hitting the passes, then they have to respect that it might be a play action pass, which makes it easier for your running back. And this is why Gary Kubiak and Mike Shanahan and Kyle Shanahan did this stuff forever and still do it. And, but it does, it does feel like

one of those seasons where a quarterback who's good can just be swept up and elevated by what's around him, kind of the Brock Purdy or Tua a couple of years ago. And I think it's the hardest thing in the sport to figure out, like, will that sustain? I think everybody thought Jared Gough wouldn't sustain because, oh, well, he lost the lineman. He lost his play caller. And he said not so fast. But there are other quarterbacks and Tua included where we've seen, hey, if you lose one key piece or you lose a play caller, it's going to be totally different. But in the context of this year, the Colts look pretty darn scary. But also, how about your cowboys? I'm going to call them your cowboys because hey you've been you were on the cowboys from preseason saying pick up every

cowboy player because they've got no defense and a ton of stars how about giovante williams though because we're having this discussion about running backs and circumstances i mean this is a guy that like with denver just the guy like doesn't even doesn't even really register and they had been a team that paid running backs in the past uh giving that huge ezekiel elli contract and they've absolutely nailed it here they let it's funny they let riko dowdell go and it's like rico dowdell revenge game hey they guess they made a huge mistake letting rico dowdell go and yet their guy has been every bit as good so i think there's like a mixed mash of some running backs are super stupid talented like bjohn robinson and jimier gibbs who probably will just be great

no matter what and then there's other ones that shine i think because of their circumstances and javante Williams is probably the most shocking to me. Folks, maybe you haven't started your holiday shopping yet, but those holidays sneak up on you fast. So let me give you some advice. Check out Uncommon goods. Uncommon goods makes holiday shopping stress-free and fun with thousands of one-of-a-kind gifts that you can't find anywhere else.

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Featured products include compound drug products, which FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality. Prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions, and safety information. Yeah. So three things. in terms of fantasy one thing that's different from I think how I probably felt a couple of weeks ago and I think we had this conversation is the first round and all the apparent or probable misses

and two weeks later or whatever it is that looks different including Bijan Robinson and C.D. Lamb who's back and gets 100 yards in his sleep and Gibbs and Chase and Jefferson who are still getting their numbers even though their quarterbacks are out. So I think if you drafted one of those guys, you probably feel at least okay, if not amazing. Like Gibbs, wow. Two, appreciate that on Dallas. Most of fantasy football or much of it is very hard to predict.

But Dallas looked like it had the formula that you want, the bad defense, pass happy, partly because there was no clear running back quality. They didn't make a trade for anybody. They drafted Jaden Blue and he got hurt. right away in camp and like nothing was really happening there so all the more reason to lean into lamb or even pickens or ferguson for sure and prescott looks like he might be the best quarterback in the league uh this year which i think you and i might agree is not that surprising

because he's been great so there's there's that on dallas three though unfortunately for me williams in drafts was the one exception because i thought instead of drafting giovante williams who was never good, really. Then he had the big injury in Denver. And maybe they'd bring in someone else we're drafting all summer in the 10th round. Well, I can draft Miles Sanders in the 17th round instead. And, you know, 2V2 come out ahead.

But Sanders wasn't good either. I couldn't tell you that he was when I was making those picks. And then now he's out for the year. So in best ball, like, that's dead. But Williams has been good. you know, he's got the right talent and everything around him to thrive. And he's thriving. So good for you if you drafted him.

That was always a tough click for me because of those other reasons. Yeah. And well, look, they were bound to be losing in a lot of games and throwing like crazy, which they have been. But yet he's still been very effective in those circumstances. We could tie this into the Vikings and Jordan Mason. If there was one critique, call it, of this last game against Philadelphia, it was and look they were in the high red zone a lot not the low red zone as much so I I know I understand

this but you're that guy now I am that guy well look we just we have to you know every single game it's like do we what do we think of the play caller and the plays that didn't work he's a fool and the plays that did work he's a genius or whatever you know we go the forever discussion of NFL you know analyzing play callers and such but When you have second and one at the six-yard line, please, Jordan Mason is here for a reason. And the fact that Jordan Mason has all of, what, four touchdowns and under the circumstances where you have Carson Wentz playing quarterback, I think is kind of disappointed. I mean, four is not a terrible number. And 380 yards isn't a terrible number.

But I think we believed that with McCarthy and Wentz that there would be more in terms of the running, I think that injuries on the office. line have had an impact. I don't know how much you want to run into Jalen Carter, who holy cow, like, just is the freakiest freak. So I don't know, maybe they didn't really want to do that at the goal line. They had him run a wildcat touchdown in this game. But I also think Kevin O'Connell is who he is, and I tweeted this out some chart of, from football insights on Twitter, some chart of X, expected when you would run versus how much you've run. And of course, the in the red zone, the Vikings are passing way more. And it's like, didn't we talk about this? I thought we talked. I thought after going, oh for the world against Detroit and week 18 in the

red zone that we talked about this with Jordan Mason. And I think it is that just like you and I were, we won't change. We can adjust a little bit, but we won't change. Kevin O'Connell won't change. And I think that's okay philosophically in the bigger picture. But with Jordan Mason, I don't think any Vikings running backs ever just going to gain 1,500 yards and get 20 touchdowns. No, by the way, I just meant about the low red zone thing. Like, I think you and I, since we've known each other, have made fun of how many different new firms come up in football. The low point for now was Monday night with Lewis Riddick's complimentary momentum.

Oh, yeah, yeah. I mean, just, just throw the headset on the floor and leave with dignity at that point because the complimentary stuff is all nonsense. Every broadcast now has to tell me when it's late in the first half, who's getting the ball first in the second half? Why do we care? You're both getting equal number of possessions. Why do we even care about double dip all this crap?

It's just like I just drown in the sludge listening to NFL talk on Sunday sometimes, or that's how it feels. You know, it was an interesting conversation in the summer. Would the Vikings run more? I mean, maybe they didn't want to. They did lose Jones. you know, he was important to them and he'll be back at some point. I think the offensive line point would be my point here when it comes to Mason.

It just isn't coming easily enough to that offense. And whether that is a reflection on Wentz or anything else or even Mason, I don't know. I feel a little bit, I drafted lots of Jordan Mason. The Vikings made the investment. There was a chance they would shift in philosophy. And then you get the Jones injury and start, all right, wheels up. I feel like I'm getting away with it a little bit. It is a little bit Madison reminiscent where, okay, I mean, I don't think it's really looking that good.

It's not undeniable that he has to get 20 touches a game or whatever it's going to be going forward. And I think the most fantasy relevant result from the last Vikings game was Addison with his getting, was it 12 targets, nine catches, over 100 yards. You know, you had Naylor who was in his way a little bit before he had a. suspension or, you know, well, he had the suspension and then he was, whether he sit for a quarter or something in one of those games, too. There was a tiny little one, 25% suspension. Tiny, quick follow-up suspension. But, I mean, I was sitting Addison versus like Pitman or T. Higgins or just sort of those whatever, second or third tier receiver options last week. And, you know, ouch, because Addison had a big game. How confident are you?

going forward that that's not going to be like those numbers every week, but like he's number two as an option in their passing offense now squarely. What could get weird is if he becomes number one because there was definitely that way last week. And he was just getting one on one all the time. This dude, the reason why the Vikings have put up with the headache of Jordan Addison is because when you go and turn on the all 22 where you can see the whole route that he runs and you see cornerbacks, just have no chance against him one-on-one. You're like, oh, I get it.

I get it. That's what he did in college. That's how Kenny Pickett became a first-round draft pick. That's how Caleb Williams became generational as opposed to just a great prospect. And this is how Carson Wentz was actually really efficient on a throw-to-throw basis because there's attention on Jefferson. There is a play where they put him up on the same side of the field and Jefferson runs a post. And the safety, who is supposed to be covering Jordan Addison and cover two, is just

just like, I better go follow Justin Jefferson and he's wide open. That's the one that if, uh, went through it accurately, it might be a touchdown. Um, so it could have been even worse, uh, in terms of yardage. But I think with, uh, the other thing too is that J.J. McCarthy in training camp, he loved Addison. Like those guys were really connected in training camp. And that's going to be probably the guy when he returns that he leans on really heavily. And that's where it might get a little uncomfortable if J.J. McCarthy

starts leaning on Addison all the time because he's going to be the guy that's getting one-on-one coverage a lot and isn't pushing the ball as much to Jefferson. But one thing they've done that's really good recently is they've done these, I don't know what you would call them. Like we need a football term for this.

But sort of these these like automatic completions. They use them to Jamar Chase all the time. Pittsburgh's done a great job with D.K. Metcalfe with these where you snap the ball and you just give that man the ball. and technically it's a pass, but it's almost a run to Jamar Chase or they've been doing it to Jefferson. He gets a 40-yard gain on a play where the ball travels like one yard in the air. So I think that O'Connell has kind of gotten the sense. Like I really have to get the ball into these guys' hands, even if, you know, it requires yards after catch, which when he had Darnold, you don't have to do that because you could just have him throw it 30 yards down the field and you're fine.

So I think that he's really leaned into that with Wentz, which he will carry over to McCarthy. and both of them will kind of get their, uh, their food. I might want to call it easy button. You hear that term a lot now, but it's still not that easy for everybody like Garrett Wilson is one of these players and like how easy did that look. So, but you know,

that's kind of the idea. Well, why don't we, uh, jump to wide receivers then in this game, uh, the Vikings and the Chargers over on fan duel. The over under for Justin Jefferson is 80.5 by, far higher than anybody else. One thing we could say about Carson Wentz is that he will throw his best receivers, the dang football. Like they,

will it be accurate? Sometimes. Will it, will it be on time? No, not usually. Usually it's a little late. It's like,

I mean, even even the package, maybe like a package play you could call it or, uh, even that easy button play to Jefferson. And it gets 40 yards. Whenst still hesitates to throw. it. He's still like, I'm not sure. I don't know. And he's just standing there like,

this is the play. Please throw me the ball. It's a, you know, it's a backup quarterback experience. But Jefferson on overs to me against the team that really can't cover and has struggled defensively is probably a pretty good plan. I think the same thing for Addison. His over under on Fanduil is 54.5. Like I would be buying both of those guys. I think Jefferson, so we're recording. on Wednesday morning and I'm pretty sure that number is like four yards higher than when I woke up. Oh, wow. One of the first things I saw today was a reference to like look at, look at Jefferson and it

wasn't even to 80 and a half yet. And now it is as we're talking. So that's usually good enough for me to hit that when I see the momentum, sorry, that I think that that's actually appropriate. In that direction, when the market is moving that way, I'll usually just sort of glance. I'm onto it. And it's Justin Jefferson. I'm in a pool where you have to get somebody each week to score a touchdown. And I'm tempted. I've got five entries left, which is really good. And I'm tempted to use one on this game because I like getting like just something out of the way on Thursday night. Fantasy players tend to be Thursday night averse because the reputation is for these slog games. It's not true anymore. They're better matchups. They're better teams.

than it used to be on Thursday nights. And look at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. Like, did that make any sense at all that that game would shoot out like that? And there are other examples like it. So I don't think you have to be afraid of it being on a Thursday. Jefferson, sure. I don't know if Addison,

I'm not quite as confident there because I want to see it be more consistent. And if Wentz is under pressure all night, which is something you can imagine being true, I don't know, or that leaves their secondary, if that's not unfair to call Addison, there are options after him. But Jefferson for sure, L.A.

is a really tough one right now with their receivers. I mean, Johnson was having this nice season, and then last week kind of flopped for him. Gadsden was the player last week, the tight end, the rookie tight end from Syracuse, who really had a career day. And a lot of people, including it appears Jim Harbaugh, are very excited about him.

So I see him at 42 and a half, I might try that. Yeah, I like that number for him. And the other reason, too, is because the chargers have, I mean, Joe Alt sounds like he wants to come back, but even then, like they have a very spotty offensive line. Justin Herbert's been getting smacked over and over and over again. And the only way to survive that is to get the ball out quick. He's pretty good at that.

And they have all these short area type receivers, McConkey, Keenan Allen is like a short area God for his career. That's where Johnson, I think it's a little bit harder for him. They do like to do the easy button stuff with him, but usually he has to get like a big play mixed in to get his over under's 47 and a half. Keenan Allen to me would be an easy one at 49 and a half. They just, I think over the middle against the Flores blitzes,

that's one of the bigger storylines of this game, though, is when you have an offensive line that's banged up for the Chargers, will Flores attack them with extra rushers or do you even need that? I'm not sure, but either way, like, their offense has to get the ball out quickly. And the Chargers folks that I've had on the show have talked about how, like, Greg Roman likes to have five guys out there. He doesn't like to keep running backs and tight ends into block. So that means pressure is going to come on Justin Herber.

That means a lot of quick passes. I haven't looked yet, Herbert, what the completion number is. but I feel like it's, okay, here's the completion number. 23 and a half is pretty high for completions, but I feel like Herbert is going to steamroll that. I just don't see, unless they get way ahead and then they're just handing off, which seems unlikely on a Thursday night game, I just feel like he's going to be throwing six-yard passes to all these guys

over and over and over again. So, I mean, I would definitely hit that. But I'm feeling like the ball is going to get spread to all these guys. Ladd-McConkie over under 55.5. that seems pretty reasonable. Yep. I might not, I might not bother with Johnston, but I agree on McConkey. McConkey, like, he's still good.

They just were going in different directions and every week is different. You know, seasons evolve and I think they know what they have in him. And if your prediction for the kind of game this is is right, I would love that, that too. And Keenan Allen and the over on completions, all of it. The Chargers are up to three and a half at Fanduil and 44.5. So that's 25 and a half. So that's 24.5 to 21 as the implied score. The Chargers may not have Hassan Haskins in this game, the running back listed as doubtful.

He wasn't playing over Kamani Vidal, but if there's one fewer option in the running game, that would even lead you further in this direction. And Vidal's value is somewhat in catching the ball himself. So, yeah, there might be four or five passes to him here. Kamani Vidal sounds like a guy who created a handbag line in 1912. And then it just became like a huge brand. I'd buy it. I'd wear Khammi Vidal.

Well, he's had quite a history on this show with us going from that can't be a real person to, all right, you're probably not kidding this time. He is, I think, probably a real person. to, okay, you're going to go to L.A. and watch him start. Right. Part of legitimate game preparation. 55 and a half on Fandul for Kamani Vidal. I don't know. I just, yeah, I mean, just rushing. Yeah, just rushing.

I think it's hard to predict because this Chargers team, now, like you said, on Thursday night, sometimes it's what they've been recently doesn't mean a thing. I mean, the Bengals had been the worst looking team in the world, and then all of a sudden they weren't. So that does happen. but I know that they want to run as a team, but if they get behind,

they're going to have to just throw and throw and throw. If their offensive line can't block. I mean, we saw the Vikings do a much, much better job now that Harrison Smith, it's crazy how defense works. Harrison Smith is back playing all the snaps, which means Josh Mattelis is in the box, which means he's a great tackler,

and all of a sudden he gets five stops against Saquan Barkley, and it's a different story from what it was two weeks ago where Mattelis is not playing. in the box as much. So these things kind of have a tumbling type of effect on defense, which is why they're so fragile. But I don't know that they're going to be able to really run against this Vikings defense that put a lot of effort in the byweek into slowing that area down. Yeah. And the Chargers, the Chargers reputation because of Greg Roman, I would, I guess, coming into the season was being more run centric. And that's just not been the case.

this year. So all of this pointing toward the Chargers throwing a lot of passes in this game, I feel like is all very logical. I'm in. The one thing that would help that even more is if Minnesota could score on them. That'd be nice. And then put the pressure on L.A. And, you know, maybe that's reasonable to expect Indianapolis went out there and just buried the Chargers. So, yeah, I like, I like how this sounds. Okay, so here's Herbert and Wentz, 255.5 for Herbert and 222.5 for Carson Wentz. I think that if Herbert hits the under on this, then the Chargers won. And I think that it would be almost surprising if Wentz didn't throw for more than that,

just considering what the Chargers are doing on defense right now. Because even Wentz, as inaccurate as he could be and as up and down as he could be, like every other quarterback, clean pocket, time to throw. If he's got that, they haven't rushed the passer that successfully. The Vikings have almost their entire offensive line back. assuming Brian O'Neill is okay to go. He missed some practice. I think they're going to end up throwing pretty successfully on this team.

Okay. I'm not sure I like that. I'm not sure I want to go over on Wentz. But if you're going to play these other plays on Herbert, you can't go under that yardage total either. So if you see a big volume game from L.A., I kind of want to predict that Wents will need a big one to clear that bar. And, you know, I think that's your bet there.

whether that's Addison or Jefferson or someone else. You love like sort of a run after the catch, 55 yard play early in a game if you have the quarterback over and sort of a modest number like this. Don't love it. Okay, so the over under for the game, 44.5. The Vikings are three and a half point underdogs, which surprises me a little bit just because of how bad the chargers have been. I do think it's tough to go on the road after playing the Eagles.

they had to do this last year with Detroit and the Rams and it was not great. So are you taking the Chargers here, taking the Vikings, who we picking? I would take the points, I think, because I just don't trust the Chargers. And that's sort of the consensus for most of the world or at least America for the last 38 years.

You can almost never trust the Chargers. It's not quite a buster game where one team is coming off a bad look and the other a good one, and then you want to go the other way because that's the NFL. But Minnesota lost as well. It's an interesting matchup.

It's not a division matchup or even a conference one where you have a lot of history between the teams. There was a great game in Minnesota when, three years ago even, Mike Williams, like this high shootout between the charges of the, but irrelevant to tomorrow night or whenever we're watching this to this week's game.

But I remember that. Otherwise, there's just not a lot of familiarity or history to draw on, unlike like last week or division game, obviously. So I wouldn't give three and a half. I know that. I'm not sure I want to play the Vikings there, but I don't like the feel of betting the Chargers giving three and a half almost against anybody. Yeah, I'm going to go Vikings here, even though I think the circumstances aren't the easiest for them. but that's been the story of the season for the Vikings. Also, Adrian Peterson broke the rushing record against the Chargers in a game

where they returned a missed field goal for touchdown. Nice little trivia for you there at the water cooler at WGR. And it was 40 for 47. Justin Herbert went in the game against the Vikings. Yeah, 40 for 47. I believe Keenan Allen had 18 receptions. And the Vikings should have won the game if T.J. Hawkinson could have gripped a ball in the end zone but instead it flung up in the air and was

intercepted in the end zone to end the game there so this was against cousins right and there was a fourth down that Brandon Staley before he's you know he sold his soul that he went for deep in his own end and didn't get it but then they still got a pick and won anyway and everybody whined about go how do you go for fourth and one at your own 20 yard line or something like that and like well didn't they win? I mean, see the whole board, people. See the whole board when it comes to fourth down decisions. It's not just like in a vacuum. This only, it's yes or no and win or lose. It's even, I mean, I don't have to tell you this. This is just sort of one of my things when it comes to that fourth down analysis stuff is when you go for it closer to your own end zone, the opponent

will not have the ball for as long as they might if you're at the other, the plus 40 or something like that. So, I mean, that can be good math, too, but you never hear that. To go down that rabbit hole with you, I did an article a couple of years ago about the rapid increase of teams going for on fourth down. And one of the people that I interviewed was the number one Madden player in the world. And what he said was that the next level of this is teams understanding exactly what you said. And also, if you give up a field goal, like let's say you go forward to your own 30 yard line, if you give up a field goal and you get the ball immediately, back, it's really not anywhere near as bad as you think. And because teams are scoring a field goal almost every single drive now with the kickoff, this makes even more

sense to go for it. And I think he said, especially in late game type of situations, you almost have to be doing this when you're trying to come back or something because, well, you need to keep the ball. But then if you fail, okay, they score, but you get it right back and you still have time to do this as opposed to punting. And then they can go the whole field and run the clock out on you. There was one of these. last week with the Vikings where they had 3.45 left and they could have, it was, it's a different story, but it's one of those like game hack things, could have kicked the field goal and then kicked off and saved a bunch of time. Instead, they tried to score a touchdown, wound half the

clock off. And, you know, it didn't matter anyway because they couldn't stop AJ Brown. But the point just being that like these are, these are still out there for sure. I want to ask about a couple other games and players here. We got a revenge game in Pittsburgh. And it's, actually a real sort of revenge game, which is Aaron Roger. I like the ironic revenge game, like when the kicker is, you know, it's like, oh, well, it's the Parker Romo.

I think Parker Romo made five field goals against the Vikings or four field goals. It was like, well, he was briefly a Vikings. It's the revenge game angle. This one's a real one. Hey, before you get to your real one, down that path, the bills play Carolina, Xavier Leggett. So the bills trade,

pick 32 to Carolina for pick 33 and the panthers draft legate and the bills draft keon coleman can that be a revenge game hey they didn't want me oh man and now nobody wants either one of those guys but legett did just put up a big week yeah yeah yeah otherwise it's it's been a struggle bus with uh xavier legett so far but yes uh no i don't i don't think that they didn't pick me as a revenge game i don't think so i don't think you could do that i think you have had to play for the uh the other team okay that That would be how I would put it. But Aaron Rogers against Jordan Love.

Aaron Rogers over under on Fandu is 218.5 here, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, a fascinating matchup between a Green Bay team that is flawed enough to keep their opponents in every single game, but also good enough to make their case as a legitimate contender. When I look at the score differentials for teams around the league, you're like, well, there's some teams with really good. records that have like a plus 12 or something score differential this year. It's been very, very close. So I don't want to overreact to that.

But this one, this one should be fascinating. It feels like if the Packers have a really good day here, that all of a sudden, like, we're having a Mike Tomlin conversation, if they're not already with what happened against Cincinnati. But Pittsburgh's defense, even if you watch the Vikings game back, guys are wide open all over the place. I think Mike Tomlin has reached the Pete Carroll post, you know, a great defense there in Seattle

where he's still playing the same schemes that used to work and they don't work anymore. That's what it looks like to me. I mean, how they couldn't just get Jamar Chase double or singled or single late in the game. He's like running, I could. That is where I actually could have made that catch

because there was no one within 15 yards. Yeah. He had to play late in the first half or at the sideline and they overturned it because he just, I don't know, his heel touched the line or something like that. and the next play, they just ran the same thing. It didn't even matter.

I'm with the Packers. I mean, maybe they're one of these teams you mean when you're talking about point differential. They lost to Cleveland. But right now, they're the one seed in the NFC. And they're not a team I think that's just going to be thrown off by Sunday night in Pittsburgh. I mean, it's a lot of yellow this game.

But I feel like Green Bay should be able to hold up to it. I just keep wait from a fantasy standpoint. I just keep waiting for the, Packers to lean into their passing game, to lean into love. I mean, it's Narrative Street if they do it here against Rogers. But I'm not betting Aaron Rogers overs. Got away with it last week, throwing the tight ends. They put that on film.

I think Green Bay is good enough to be prepared for that. And they can get to the quarterback, which could be a disaster if Micah Parsons happens in this game for Rogers. So I like the Packers here. I think the Packers are actually good. and the Steelers are not. I would agree with that overall, plus 33 for the Packers, which is kind of underwhelming for a team with that many wins.

Probably should have had another one against the Dallas Cowboys. But Jordan Love on Fandul, 237.5 over, I would go with that all day. I know they love to run the ball, but it just seems like this passing defense for the Steelers is so problematic. And one of the things about Jordan Love and Vikings fans, like put the earmuffs on, I know you don't want to hear this. he is awesome at avoiding sacks and that's the only chance that pittsburgh has and i'm sure joe flacco knew this the only chance they have on defense and this is how they beat the vikings is

if they get six sacks in a game but if they don't they're getting absolutely shredded so i i would go over all day on jordan love here yeah love is a little bit like rogers in in a way where he doesn't get sacked doesn't throw picks like he's pretty reliable so i don't love the over because they're still not, I respect the point about Pittsburgh's defense, they're still not like that team. And maybe they will have to be in this game. Of course, if you get behind, that feeds into that. But I don't know, the passing numbers this year, Matt, are tough. Like, it's just numbers that look at Josh Allen. I mean, numbers that seem pretty like easy bars to clear end up not being cleared. So I'm, I'm conservative when it comes to passing overs right now. How are you,

folks, let's talk about a passing over that I'm sure a lot of people will be hitting this week, which would be Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton. Patrick Mahomes, 281.5 against Washington. That's way too high. I think

for me. But you being in Buffalo, is everybody nervous? Is everybody talking about like, oh, not this, not this again? And it feels very, it feels very patriots. where they would have like a bad start or something,

a bad run to be like, maybe. No, no, probably not. Well, Kansas City is here next week. So you could look ahead to that. The bills are in Carolina this week. And that's a game where if you lose that, I mean, Alan has never had three losses in a row. And he's sitting on two.

The bills might be about an eight point favorite in Charlotte. And the Panthers are four and three. I feel like Dalton gives them a better chance to win than Bryce Young does, but I'm, you know, not everybody would say that. And then Kansas City next week, is there a sense of dread here or maybe across the NFL about how the chiefs look? Probably, maybe there should be. The Raiders ran 30 plays in that game and never got to the red zone.

Even the high reds of the reds of the redsons last week. I mean, 30 plays is the fewest in the NFL in 25 years in a game. The Chiefs, it's all about their offense, but they have their moments on defense too, and the Raiders were incompetent in that game. So, yeah, I mean, that's the Raiders. Kansas City still has a lot left, though. They have three losses in Buffalo,

where they might be an underdog, probably will be, if nothing weird happens this week. They've got at Denver after the buy following that. They've got the Colts after that at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Like, that's after Washington, that's their next four games, if I remember right. And there are teams in sports where you get to the end and they look like the best team, but they don't make it. Like right now, the chiefs are not in a playoff spot.

That's really interesting. Yeah. Well, I mean, the schedule always matters to this. But with Patrick Mahomes and his full bevy of weapons, I just wouldn't doubt that he'll at least keep them around or above 500 until they get to a different part of their schedule. And that he'll win some big game. I mean, look, it's just really. hard this is a guy who's making juju smith schuster is number one wide receiver for a really long time and that guy hasn't been good forever and so now with worthy and rishi rice and hey hollywood brown

who i've made fun of many times on the show for never being actually active in games uh is active in games and it's and you know what this does this allows Travis kelsey to get more space because teams are paying attention to all these guys and when they wouldn't otherwise and now he's open again as a fantasy player i'm just hanging on hoping that it happens for Brashard Smith in that backfield. Like if without Daniels, if that's the case here, if Washington can't function, I mean, their receivers have been out, that team's down pretty bad. If that's the game, are they just going to go to Kareem Hunt again at his stage of life?

Maybe because they feel like he has a less chance of getting the beat by mistakes. But Smith was starting to work in rookie running back late round. seventh round even rookie running back this year he was starting to work in and at receiver anyway with rice and then worthy the last two years you saw those guys really ramp up remains to be seen i'm not assuming they're going to start trusting their rookie but i'd love to see it i mean i have well everybody six teams on by this week i've got a couple i mean i draft a certain way and it often leads me to be sort of scrambling at running back i've got a couple teams this week that are going to start Richard Smith.

That doesn't feel great, but look at your waivers. Like there's nothing you can do about it. If that's, if you play like I do. He's supposed to be a guy that catches passes out of the backfield. But I feel like that gets said about everyone who comes out like, oh, he's going to be a receiver and he's going to catch a lot of passes. And then it's really dependent on just what the, what the quarterback decides to do. And a lot of teams just don't do it.

Like a lot of teams are not going to lead on a Christian McCaffrey, which. I think that as the NFL seems to be going backwards in time, teams should be doing this more of, hey, throw Tom Rathman, 100 passes. Why not? Let's have a real quick conversation. Why we rapid fire this through? I was looking at the rookie of the year odds on Fanduel. Jackson Dart is now the favorite for that. I'd like to go through a few of those guys, but I also want your take on Travis Hunter. I look at Travis Hunter, and this is just my eyeballs and nothing else. see a guy who could be an elite cornerback, like one of the

best total difference maker. There's five of them in the league, if that, and he could be one of those five. I don't really see a guy who runs routes with the precision of a wide receiver, and I think his size is problematic for someone at the wide receiver position, because

it's extremely physical, and it feels like Jaguars stop trying to make this happen. I know that you spent all your draft capital, and if that's what you're going to do you feel like you got to get the more valuable position maybe he behind the scene says i'm a wide receiver i'm not a corner you got to play me at receiver and they have no real choice there but i just don't i just don't see it i just don't see the same skills as i see from top wide receivers

and i feel like i have a good resume of covering top wide receivers to know yeah you might have said it all there uh i think the draft investment the trade really kind of maybe feels like they're forced to get him going both ways. He didn't play very much defense last week at all. And then he got there on everybody's bench last week in garbage time, the game in London. So it's been a little bit back and forth, but I sort of defer to your analysis on that.

And I don't know behind the scenes either, like sort of what Hunter is trying to accomplish. But just an organization where you just don't really even want to look at it. I don't know what Lawrence is. Um, it's just, they got to four, they beat Kansas City. They got to four and one and I was still like, absolutely not. And now they've since lost to Seattle and the Rams, good teams. But yeah, maybe on Hunter, um, it's going to be a little bit of a, an amusement park ride where you're just sort of never really feeling like you're sort of, if that's an analogy that it all works, um, that you know what you're getting.

Uh, fantasy wise, he's really tough to start. It's a desperation start. and they're on by this week too. The offensive rookie of the year, like he won't win it because it's offense and defense, right? Like before the season, it was fun to think about if they combined the awards, maybe he could win it.

But is he going to win either or both? No. Dart is the favorite. What a loss. But, you know, he's still impressing. I think Judkins is interesting. Three touchdowns last week for Cleveland. Ibuka, I don't,

I wish I could sometimes. I don't bet the awards, usually. Once in a while, I'll go through a friend, but in New York, we can't bet awards because they're not, like, actual competition. But I follow those markets, and Ibuka was the favorite, maybe by a lot when he got hurt.

And my guys that I know and watch on bet sweats and different shows who analyze this stuff all the time, and they were sort of off of Buka. And part of that is because, well, they'd already bet him maybe, and then his price goes up, up and you're just done with it. You already have your tickets. But I was saying, like, I would still bet him anyway, because if it's not a long-term injury, we know how good he is. And when the price changed on him after the injury, I liked it. And then he ends up playing

Monday night anyway. Like he didn't even miss a game. And he wasn't hobbled in that game. I mean, Mayfield had a rough night or else he could have had a huge game, now with Evans out. So I think depending on the price, and I'm not a betting analyst, but Ibuka might, um, make sense. Is there anyone else you think could win? Yeah. So Abuka is plus 175 on Fandul where DART is plus 100. So it's pretty close there. But I think the guy who is third here has a great chance at it. That is Tyler Warren at plus 650. He has emerged as a favorite of Daniel Jones, especially last week against the Chargers, ate them up. And Teteroa McMillan at plus 1500 is probably a, it's a pretty big long shot. Carolina's

playing a backup quarterback like I don't know but if he got hot in the second half of the season caught a bunch of touchdowns it still feels like that's a little too long I think it's probably the most distant guy at plus 1,300 would be quenchon judkins and it just it definitely feels like ashton gentie is a million miles away from this what a franchise to when you need everything draft a running back well uh well done uh Oakland Raiders I I couldn't go get to McMillan There's just not enough happening, but he looks good. And I think Judkins has a chance if he gets tons of volume and their defense is good. There could be some good game scripts, weather games, what just happened, you know, against Miami.

He scored three times. He looks phenomenal. Henderson doesn't. Genti doesn't. And, you know, other teams, sort of the team context doesn't allow for it. But Dart maybe should win. It's going to play out the season and he looks impressive. He's got to be, he's the rightful favorite.

But I like Ibuka still a little bit too. Next week, we'll be back at our typical Thursday, and I believe what we'll be doing is talking about who J.J. McCarthy will be throwing to the most. I am fairly confident in that, Mike. So who do you play next week? That would be the Detroit Lions on the road at Ford Field. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Perfect.

And then what happens when I go to Detroit is that I have to remember how they drive in Detroit and how that's very different from how they drive in Minnesota. Interesting. we can get into that at some point fast is the answer uh so thanks for your time as always mike and uh we'll do it again soon look for me at game two with a world series really saturday you should be able to spot me easily wow in Toronto what what a game what a game the other night baseball still has a little bit of its magic except for when they run the capital one ad just as the guy's about to throw the biggest pitch of everyone's life and here he goes it's the three two

to strike him out but first that that what's in your wallet unfortunately not a weapon i can use in that moment all right well that's a good place that thanks mike it is all right thank you