Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Final QB rankings and the hindsight game on previous Vikings drafts

Episode Date: April 23, 2022

Matthew Coller and Paul Hodowanic talk about the QB School quarterback rankings and where they would put Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder. Plus they deep dive into recent drafts and whether the Vikings should have regrets based on their process or if missed picks were bad luck and talk about what Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can learn from errors of the past. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collard here along with Paul Hodowanek of WCCO Radio. And Paul, you know, we do the fans only podcasts. I think I want this one to be hindsight only. This has been a week of games. We've done match game. We've had the crystal ball game. We did would you rather. I think I want this one to be the hindsight game and we

need to look back a little bit at what the vikings have done in recent years and what they could have done or what would have been disastrous for them as we continue to roll closer and closer to the nfl draft and you can thank the schedule makers of the offseason schedule that were in this mode right now because they didn't put the draft this week. For whatever reason, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I feel like it's a constant theme. I feel like our brains are breaking a little bit. People are just tweeting out random stuff at this point because there's nothing else

to tweet at this point. It's just, do you want a 20th mock draft? Because I've done one and it's like, okay, uh, cool. Uh, but yeah, I think we're all just waiting. And now, now that we're a week in now, I think my energy is coming back. Cause now I see the light. Like I see the draft. I can say it's just on Thursday now. I don't have to say, well, it's like three Thursdays from now or we're within a month now. It's like, no, it's on Thursday. Like I can see it. We can plan for it. Um, we know the plans of now it's like no it's on Thursday like I can see it we can plan for it um we know the plans of how it's gonna or how what we're gonna be doing there so everything's getting closer now

I'm getting back excited again okay I did say that it was only hindsight but JTO Sullivan who I watch all the time on the QB school on YouTube which if you're really into super details, go check out JTO Sullivan. He played in the NFL, played in NFL Europe for people old enough to remember NFL Europe, and I believe was briefly a Viking. I don't know if he ever got in an actual game. I don't think he did, but he played for a bunch of teams, and he does an incredible YouTube channel, and he did seven-part series on all these different draft prospects,

and then just yesterday put out his final rankings of how he sees the quarterbacks from this draft so not to spoil you can get the explanations from him but uh he sees malik willis number one ritter two sam howell three kenny pickett is four and mac corral is five and then Carson Strong and the like after that not being really relevant as far as potential long-term starters. What is your opinion on that list? I think that feels right. I think I've just always been not a huge Pickett guy. I think that's probably the one disparity from other lists or discrepancy from other lists is where Kenny Pickett is.

I think he is perceived to have the highest floor. But what I see is just like a guy that his ceiling is basically Kirk Cousins. And I think Vikings fans here have seen a ceiling of Kirk Cousins only takes you so far. And maybe on a rookie deal, you can make that happen. But in a class that is so you just not revered I think you have to go for the potential play because there are still some potential plays in which guys turn out to be really good it's just that a lot of their floors are really low and so if all the floors are already low I I would rather just take a stab at one of the guys that could be a a pro bowler and not just like the 17th best starter in the league, which I feel like is where Kenny Pickett's going to be. So I have no problem with that list. Yeah. I would put Sam Howell number two. And part of it is because Sam Howell, it wasn't just last

year, but the year before that. And I know his team was better, but this makes sense that when his team was better, he was supposed to be the top drafted quarterback. And part of JTO Sullivan's analysis and his tape breakdowns, he talks a lot about how their offense was just tough. Like their offensive line was lost. And there's so many plays. It's absolutely wild. There's so many plays where nobody blocks anybody.

It's just like, oh, you're under pressure. And now you've got to figure something out. There's a play that is just hysterical. Like North Carolina, are you coaching your football players? There's a tight end who doesn't know who to block. So a rusher walks right by him, right into the face of Sam Howell. He heaves it up to an open receiver in the end zone, like 30 yards down the field. And he drops the ball in the end zone. It's just like North Carolina football, everybody. And that has me convinced, I think, a little bit that Sam Howell dealt with some really tough things last year,

but when he had an opportunity to be great, he was great. And I think he's got a much better arm than Desmond Ritter does. Ritter strikes me as kind of a fringy starter or possibly like long-term backup, kind of a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh McCown, someone who can be a starter, but isn't really like where Teddy Bridgewater is in his career at this moment, Andy Dalton. I think that that's what Ritter becomes. I could be totally wrong like anybody else, but we got to make a list. And so I think, I think that that's, that's it for me. I think I would just switch those two. And I agree with you with Kenny Pickett. I just don't

really see the upside there. And I don't see when we were talking about the same thing with Mac Jones, because everybody who's not that physically gifted and doesn't have insane upside is Kirk Cousins. I don't, I didn't think that that was fair to Mac Jones. I thought Mac Jones was more of a Matt Ryan type of prospect who was being talked about in the, in the very top of the draft because of some of his physical tools, one of them being accuracy and his pocket presence, I thought was really good in college. Uh, I don't see this insane accuracy from Kenny Pickett. And I see a lot of panicking in the pocket when things break down, which I think tends to correlate to some struggles in the NFL because things break down really quick in the NFL. So I've been very, I guess, skeptical of Kenny Pickett. And I think that when it comes

to draft night, maybe some of the people who have been talked about as the order, and this always tends to happen in the mocks that they don't actually end up going that way that's kind of my expectation for drafting and in terms of who's going to be successful i think we've talked about this in previous pods but i really think it it has so much to do with their landing spot like really the draft board could be like the top quarterback is whichever quarterback gets drafted by like the steelers if the steelers take the first quarterback, and then the second best quarterback is going to be whichever quarterback, like the Saints take in the first round. Cause they also have stuff built around them.

And then last is like whichever quarterback, like the Texans or the Panthers draft in the first round, like those are probably going to be the worst ones just because it's so much based on landing spot and how much you're going to do to help them around it. Like the better teams, the teams that are more consistent draft, much based on landing spot and how much you're going to do to help them around it like the better teams the teams that are more consistent draft better quarterbacks and maybe that's because they picked the better quarterback or maybe that's just because they had the better system to let one of these quarterbacks thrive in because you saw what Sam Howell did that like two years

ago when he did have a good system he looked like a number one quarterback then when everything else falls around him he looks like a bust so if he goes to Carolina and they don't have a good offensive line and they don't have a stable ownership and don't have a stable GM and don't have a stable head coach like he's probably not going to do well but if he goes to the Steelers with Mike Tomlin and all those receivers and that defense like maybe he's good and so I think more than any other position where they land is going to have a big impact. And especially with this draft, when there's no guy that you feel like can just take a franchise out of the wreckage, like you thought Trevor Lawrence could do. I think the best quarterbacks, it just may end up being which team takes one of these

five quarterbacks that ends up being the best one. I think it real this year more than other years could just be depending on fit. And that's how the best guy gets decided. I think what you're always trying to do is look at what it's going to be like in their second and third year, because everybody struggles in their first year. And so with Justin Fields, for example, in Chicago, he's kind of taken at a bad time for Chicago, where they were not in a spot where they could immediately give him a lot of help, even by year two, because their salary cap situation was so poor and they had just a lot to rebuild.

And so he's going to go into the season with still a pretty poor supporting cast. And it won't be until year three that they have a possibility to get their cap right, sign some people. I think that Jacksonville actually made some good moves at receiver. I know they overpaid and everyone was mad at them for Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, but making sure that they had enough competent players to be able to put around Trevor Lawrence and then a coach who really knows what he's doing, working with quarterbacks in Doug Peterson, as of course he's shown in the past.

And so this year will determine whether he brought them out of the wreckage. Like nobody ever does it after their team drafts. Number one, except for what Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, but it's pretty rare. But I think that if you're trying to project even something like what Carolina is going to be,

you could be talking new coach. You could be talking players leaving like that, that that's a tough one. You'd almost lean toward like the giants who might have gotten a competent coach and started to turn things around if they're going to draft a quarterback. And this is what I think is so crazy about this draft is that you could see Malik Willis going anywhere from number two overall to the lions to number 20, being the first quarterback off the board.

Like, I think that all of those things are on the table. And even as JTO Sullivan, I'm listening to him break these things down. And I hope to get him on the show at some point. But, you know, he's sort of agonizing over all of the prospects. It's like, I really like this about the guy, but I don't know about that. And I don't know about this thing. And that sort of screams middle of the first round type of prospects. When there's some big question that doesn't preclude somebody for being good. Cause there was a big question about Josh Allen, about

Patrick Mahomes. I mean, there's a lot of guys who have had a big question about whether they could do this, that, or the other thing, but that usually means they're not taken at the top, but with the surplus value, as I wrote about at the website today of taking a quarterback, if they succeed, there's just a huge gap in what's that, what that's worth versus what it takes to pay a veteran. You could see teams getting a better understanding of that from the past and taking these guys high, even though they're not as good of prospects as maybe they have been in the past. I think that that's one, one of the things that even though it's a quote bad draft for quarterbacks makes this so interesting is that

we just have no idea where these guys are going to go as opposed to last year where we were sure that they were going at the top. Yeah. And I think that makes for a really interesting draft night in where they end up. And I think it puts the Vikings in an interesting spot at 12. If those top teams don't end up taking a quarterback, not because the Vikings themselves would take a quarterback. I am skeptical that would happen just based on everything we've seen this offseason, whether or not they should is a different conversation. But if they will, I would point to probably not. for those teams like the Saints and others, Vikings are an interesting spot where they could potentially try to get up ahead of the Texans who seem committed to Davis Mills, but who knows if one falls to them at that point with their second first round pick, would they be more interested in just taking a shot with their second first round pick now that

they've already gotten a blue chipper up at three? So I think that makes it a really interesting spot for some of these teams in the middle of the first round that kind of have a quarterback issue looming like in the distant future that could potentially take one and be a surprise or for a team that is desperate to come up for one and to trade with one of these teams that doesn't have that immediate need. I think it makes the Vikings in an interesting, interesting spot, especially if some of those top tier players they're targeting are already off the board.

I agree. Let's talk about some hindsight. And then when we do the show for Monday, we will do dueling draft Sims. Maybe we might have to go seven rounds each. I mean, we might have to just go all in like the final, the final drafts,

the final drafts. Yes. That's what it'll be get some manny hill to do to do some voiceover draft sim yeah and his unbelievable voice yeah okay we'll plan on that for later but let's look back first um let me ask you a question about you paul yep uh are you a person that in your life you have regrets? Like, are you a guy that spends a lot of time thinking about, I should have done this or I should have done that? And I don't mean on the golf course because it's just 18 straight holes of regrets. But are you like that?

Or are you just like, look, you know, whatever happened, happened, and I move on? You know, I try to be that way. I think we all would admit we try to be. We don't look at the past, but I'm sure there's things that pop up decisions you've made along the way that you'd like to question. And I'm sure there's probably some that Vikings GM Rick Spielman of the past would probably look back and say, I don't know, man, because we're about to talk about some of them. We are. I think for me, I'm very much just like move forward with whatever happens happens. And I don't spend a whole lot of time thinking about what happened before. And I've also tried to steal some things from these football teams and from coaches that I've met along the way, where I think the best coaches and the best general managers, they do. And this sounds sort of like crazy cliches, but like they have a process

in place. And if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But, but if your process was right and you keep doing things that way, then it'll eventually work out. And so like the first episode of purple insider, which by the way, we're at almost a 600, I think we're like 670 episodes ever of purple insider. The very first one did not get very many downloads. Right. And so there's just been a process in place and I kind of do everything that way. Whereas like, if we keep going with this, then people will hopefully like it and get behind it. And then we'll keep building it and that, and that'll be how it goes. So I think when you do it that way, even when something goes wrong, you don't sit there and go, Oh man, I just regret all this stuff. Uh, it's more like, well, okay,

that didn't work. What, what was it that went wrong? Should I change something? Should I fix it? Or is it just bad luck or randomness or whatever else? And I kind of approach a lot of things that way. So that's how I think teams should approach the draft and thinking about the draft. And as we go back through some of these, whether the Vikings should have regrets or not is not based on whether it worked or not, but it's based on whether their process was right or not. So I want to start, I guess, you know, I was thinking about starting in 2020 because we have more answers about 2020, but we should talk about last year first and whether they approached it the right way last

year. I think there's a pretty good argument to say that moving down to take a tackle as opposed to taking Mac Jones or trading up for Justin Fields, considering the situation they got themselves into with the quarterback was a process mistake that the quarterback, if it works out for you, if they had Mac Jones going into year two and they had trade away cousins and have more draft capital and tons more drafts cap space and the gap between what kurt cousins was giving you and what mac jones can do in the nfl now that we know that in hindsight but i also think that on draft night you could have thought that too that mac jones the big criticism was he can't become the next josh allen he can't become the next patrick. He can't become the next Patrick Mahomes.

And the reality is you don't have to, to build a great team with that person at the quarterback position. So I do think that they should have regrets there, but I also think that if you weren't going to draft a quarterback, they did the exact right thing. They traded down Elijah Vera Tucker. A guard is the guy that the Jets came up to get. What?

And that's bad process. That's bat bleep crazy. And they got a key position for a guy whose upside I think we could have seen it on draft night coming that there was a possibility Mac Jones, who was one of the best college quarterbacks ever statistically, could have become a decent to good NFL quarterback, but they also handled the rest really well to set themselves up offensively for the future by getting Christian Derrissaw and additional draft cap. Yeah. And even before that, they explored trading up for Justin Fields, which I think trading up is not often good process,

but trading up for a quarterback in the top half of the first round is, I would say is good process, at least by my book. And so they kind of went down different steps of the ladder. Maybe the first option was, can we trade up for Justin Fields it from all the reports it seems like they tried and just they didn't feel like the value was there and we can argue on whether you know they probably they could have overpaid because of how important a quarterback is and I would say it's probably worth overpaying a little bit if you feel like there's a guy worthy of taking that high maybe you overpay and you don't let a division rival do it but I think that was good process looking to try to see if they could go up to make

that big organizational shift with a quarterback that most analysts thought was slipping for wrong reasons. They felt like he should have been one of those top picks. He shouldn't have fallen into that 10th spot. So I think that's good process. Number two, yes, could they have gone after Mac Jones? I think they certainly could have. But I think in general, they were kind of with the rest of the NFL in not believing in Mac Jones.

And so whether or not that's good process, I'm not sure. But if the Patriots didn't take him, it was a question of who was going to take him. And I think you can question that for the Vikings. And based on where they're at right now, when they have, when they have quarterback questions going into the future, I think it's always worthy of doing that. But yeah, like you said, I think it's the next, next best option. They didn't trade up for a quarterback. They didn't just stay where they were and took a guard because they could have taken Elijah Vera Tucker at that spot. That was an argument to be had, but I think trading down and risking it and then still getting a top tackle prospect is exactly what you would have wanted them to do in the first round.

I really have no qualms with what they did last year in the first round. Folks, Minnesota sports teams are in the playoffs. Yes, that's right. Playoffs. Minnesota sports teams is happening. And for all your Minnesota sports inspired gear, to sodastick.com that's s-o-t-a s-t-i-c-k.com they have hockey basketball all sorts of great designs on hoodies on shirts on hats everything you need go there use the promo code purple insider for 15 off your purchase again that is soda stick s-o-t-a-s-t-i-c-k.com

15 off of the promo code purple insider yeah i do think that if you were trying like they had to fill the immediate need and so that was maybe the thing that we would usually question but it was at a position where if you get an elite player, the guy can be a part of your franchise for a decade. And if you get a very good tackle, that's worth a ton too. Cause this surplus value article that Timo Riske wrote at pff.com kind of like really solidifies how you should be looking at the draft.

It's trying to get the most value, not just in positional value, but as in difference from rookie contract to a veteran contract. And tackle is clearly one of those positions where if Christian Derrissaw is really good for the next three years, that is worth $20 million in surplus value from what you're paying him versus what the best veterans are getting. So that's a good position to draft at tackle at that spot. And it's certainly good to trade down and still get someone who's a very good prospect. Now, later in the draft though, last year, you and I were doing a Twitter broadcast and we grinded our way through the second round where there were no picks. Now we got to the third and

this is where they take of course kellen mond wyatt davis chad surratt patrick jones i think process wise all of them except for one are just bad process uh i think that you know wyatt davis ironically is the best process third round guard makes a lot sense. It's not a super high positional value. So a lot of teams are not taking them higher, which pushes the better prospects down the board. But Chaz Surratt, I mean, that's a guy who had barely played linebacker. Did you have to take him in the third round?

Like maybe that's more of a fifth round type of guy. It felt like they overdrafted him. Once you get out of the second round, don't draft a quarterback. Just don't do it. Don't do it ever. I know there's three out of the second round, don't draft a quarterback. Just don't do it. Don't do it ever. I know there's three guys of the last decade, Kirk, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, who became really good quarterbacks. But aside from that, there's like a hundred other guys who failed. If the whole league passes in two full rounds, there's no reason to take a guy

at that point because you're talking about lottery tickets with real lottery odds. And so that was probably not the greatest process. It seemed like they wanted to show Kirk that there might be life after Kirk. And the passive aggressiveness of the post-draft press conference of, you know what we really like? He's a great leader who's fast. Do you hear that, Kirk? Like, it really felt that way, that they were sort of being like, oh, I remember Spielman saying, yeah, we think he's kind of like Teddy Bridgewater. Like, you know, they needed a track of a crowd being like, oh, Teddy Bridgewater, what?

And then, like, none of the things were true, except for I think he is fast. But, you know, aside from that, they kind of tried to say, oh, well, you might have a good backup. There's no use of doing that. And in hindsight, it was exciting for everyone to talk about, but no use. And Patrick Jones, I guess you could take him or leave him. But we're we're talking about a guy who didn't have the highest upside at that point. We'll see if he becomes anything, but it's, it's just sort of funny to me that the guy that we thought now this is a great pick was Wyatt Davis who has not yet gotten on the field.

Yeah. One thing I do really like about what they did in at this point in the draft is we're going to get to some of the drafts of the past and Spielman's propensity to take like five people in the seventh round and four people in the sixth round I think there's while you want those swings at you know you want you want to try to just take as many guys as you can because this thing is random I think consolidating that instead of five seventh round picks can you get two fourth round picks instead of four six round picks can you get two fourth round picks instead of four, six round picks? Can you get two third round picks? Like, can you take maybe slightly less swings,

but still more than just one per round and you, can you get them up higher? And so they took four third round picks and they took three fourth round picks. And you're already seeing Cam Bynum, Kenny Wong, both of those guys are fourth round picks. Both of those guys look like they could be key contributors on this team in their second seasons. And so I think the process of, they could have very easily said,

we've picked three people in the third round already. Let's just trade this third round pick. Let's take, let's get two fifth round picks and a seventh round pick, and we'll take more swings tomorrow. And I like that they said, no, we're going to stay inside this top 150 and we're going to take some guys. And it's something that Spielman didn't do in these past couple years where I think they probably could have consolidated it. They didn't need to take 13 people, like maybe take 10 and try to get a couple higher up. And so the one thing I do like about this draft is that they decided to do that.

They took a lot of these third, fourth round shots instead of the sixth and seventh round shots. And I think we're seeing like those are already bearing fruit and you really haven't found anyone in that third round but if one of those guys if you can get playable playability from white davis or sarat and i think that round strategy worked out really well yeah i think that um the process of taking cam bynum is a really good one that third fourth round corners or safeties are a good pick because if you get someone who's average, if they're upside, like Cam Bynum was saying that he wants to be the best player ever, but okay. Like he's upside as being in maybe an above average

player at the position, but that is tremendous value. If you could get that in the third or fourth round, I think when you look across the league, you see a lot of guys who were not the first round draft picks who are having success in the mid rounds. I mean, Tampa Bay made this an entire draft strategy of taking third round and fourth round defensive backs and then trying to develop them. And it worked out really well. You don't have to land all of them, but if you land a Carlton Davis or something who turns out to be really good, then boom, you've got somebody there. So I think that that was a good pick Amir Smith-Marset in the fifth okay fair enough I think same thing you could get average receivers maybe in the back end if they've got some upside that you like Kenny Wong Wu returns two kicks for touchdowns

and is immediately a spectacular talent so I think we want to call that a good pick, but I think it's bad process. And the reason why is because when you have a running back, there's no reason to draft other running backs at any position that could eventually be something. And I wouldn't have predicted at the time Wong Wu would come in and return two kicks for touchdown because nobody does that anymore, but they didn't play him like that. That's the problem is that I think Kenny Wong Wu is a spectacular talent and they didn't play him because they have a guy. And, and the same thing with Alexander Madison, you draft someone in the third round and you just don't play him. Uh, Delvin cook gets banged up from time to time. Madison comes in, runs for 400 yards a year at four yards of carry. And you go like, what was that draft pick worth? I think running back is one of the, if not the only position,

aside from maybe punter, kicker, long snapper, that you only pick one when you've reached the point where you have no one and you have to pick one. And so I think that that one might work out for them long-term for him being really good. But think about this. Delvin Cook's going to be on this team this year. If he plays pretty well, he'll be on the team next year. And what have you done with Kenny Wong's rookie contract?

Who's this fantastic lightning talent? Maybe he runs for 300 yards this year as Dalvin Cook's number two and a half. That I think would be a process thing. So we can move on to the other draft and and it's only been one year too so some of these process I think we can still evaluate as we move forward because we don't quite know yeah I think I think what what I mean is just that when you're evaluating it like what did it look like on draft night and when you look back at the thought should you draft a running back because he's better as a special teamer right

away than you ever would have expected. But should you be drafting a running back when you have one, even if it's the fourth round? And the answer is probably no. So if we go back to 2020 with the Vikings, this is a really interesting to talk about because of course there's the whole Jalen Rager and Justin Jefferson bit. And you think about how many teams have regrets. I mean, Javon Kinlaw to the 49ers. Why Austin Jackson to the dolphins at number 18 with Justin Jefferson on the board now just sounds hilarious, but they just traded a bunch of picks for a wide receiver, so you think they could have needed that? Right. Yeah, that is always fun.

I mean, some of these other ones, Caleb on chase on at number 20. Wow. Like, just like who was behind that? Like, I remember a lot of people thought Caleb on chase on doesn't have a huge chance to be a success. He was doing the whole, maybe he's Daniil thing. But, you know, so we get to the end of so jefferson obviously worked out really well

for them and then teams start drafting linebackers and stuff and then it's and that's jeff gladney now the thing that we've criticized long term with jeff gladney is you had trayvon digs there and antoine winfield jr i think that's one where it's very reasonable to say you guys, you guys made a mistake in the way you were thinking, not just because of what his character turned out to be. We didn't know that at the time, but also his physical skill was just not that great. And he had gone to TCU. It's kind of a, you know, not quite like a top tier program. And they passed on a player who's in your backyard and they passed on Trayvon Diggs,

who was an incredible playmaker at Alabama. And a lot of people had in the middle of the first round. So I think that's one where you can look at it and go, how did they galaxy brain their way to Jeff Gladden? Yeah. And also he was the second oldest player taken in the first round there behind Damon Arnett, Jeff Gladney was 23.

He's already 25. So there's players that were drafted in this draft with him that are still younger than him right now. And so I think that's also maybe a bit of bad process in just, you took a guy who had a really lot of really good college production but he was older and so maybe he was just bigger stronger more physical just more built than those guys at that age he had played longer he was just more of a veteran in the college game uh but and generally i think he was kind of expected to go right around there so i think

when he was picked it wasn't necessarily bad, but now you can look back and there were some playmaking guys that make a lot more sense. But I think that age thing is another thing to flag and another thing to look at moving forward. Yeah, I think so too. Jalen Johnson was another one where, you know,

I think when a lot of the mock drafters look at somebody and say, you know, maybe he should be here, maybe he should be there. And when you overdraft the heck out of them, then it's usually bad. If they fall from the consensus mock, maybe the mock drafters are missing something. And so, you know, when you look at a Trayvon Diggs or one of those players who did end up in the second, I think on draft night, my thought was, well, I guess the NFL just doesn't think that those guys are as good as Jeff Gladney but a lot of the draft experts thought that they were thought that Diggs was a mid first

round talent thought that Johnson he was getting Jalen Johnson was getting mocked to the Vikings like every single mock at that point with their second draft pick so you know I think that that is one that you could have seen coming because of, like you said, the age, but also some of the physical skill. When you look at that relative athletic score, it's not as good for Jeff Gladney. And you wonder like, what, what was it that they wanted there? Like he was an aggressive player, but he didn't like get a lot of picks or make a lot of plays in college, which I think is something that correlates. But actually I think we all understood the position.

Okay. Corner take one. Fine. None of us I think we all understood the position. Okay, corner, take one, fine. None of us know who's going to work out. The second round draft pick is the one that I wanted to ask you if they should have regrets for. They draft Ezra Cleveland. We think he's the left tackle of the future. He's two years into his rookie contract.

Remember, in the second round, you only get four. So he's halfway through his rookie contract right now. And he has had two seasons where we've kind of went like, okay, if you squint, you can kind of see it, but he hasn't graded particularly well by PFF and the pass blocking hasn't been all that great. He hasn't made an amazing adjustment to guard. And I guess it remains a mystery

of why they would pick him in the second round if the plan was always to move him to guard and whether that was the right way to go about it yeah I mean I think it probably wasn't uh the right way to go about it I think we we've talked about that over the last two years of you know trying him out at tackle at least and just seeing what you had there now he's blocked by Christian Derrissaw but when he was drafted he wasn't really blocked by anyone there long term he was blocked Riley Reif, and you kind of thought he was maybe going to get an opportunity guard, was just kind of a placeholder because they needed someone there, and they'd always

give him a chance to tackle. That doesn't seem to be the case at this point anymore. Second round is kind of right when you start back. Half of that second round is right when you start to say, okay, taking a guard here isn't that bad uh in terms of positional value i probably would have waited one more round if you were just looking for a guard there um so yeah i think it can be questioned but more than the pick i'm questioning is just the usage that they've decided to have with him after the fact i'm not sure taking a really athletic tackle in the back half of the second round is necessarily bad process.

I think what happened after that was bad process and whether that's because of Cleveland, the prospect himself, or whether that was because of the coaching staff, it's still hard to know at this point, but I, I don't knock them necessarily for the process there. Folks just wanted to mention that you can get the purple insiderider Draft Guide next Monday by going to purpleinsider.com anytime. Click on any of the articles to go subscribe to our newsletter. The draft guide comes with one month subscription and you can get all of our written draft coverage. Go to purpleinsider.com. Check out all of our written work there.

Sign up for either a full year at a reduced price or one month. You get the draft guide that has 50 players the Vikings could draft, special essays on this year's draft and what the Vikings can learn from the past, and much, much more. Again, purpleinsider.com. Our draft guide comes free with one month subscription. Go check it out today. I think it was a really good pick at the time. I agree that it was a very good pick. And all right, the guy gets to develop for a year behind Riley Reif. Maybe he mixes in a guard and then he takes

over as your future left tackle. But the fact that they decided so early on and never even got a look at him at tackle, there's a domino effect that they then have to draft Christian Derrissaw and that's where I can't really wrap my head around that because if they had solidified Ezra Cleveland as the next left tackle of which he has the athletic capabilities to do so it's very similar to Brian O'Neill in terms of what his combine scores look like and it's not like he was just terrible you know left tackle in college with only physical ability he had good numbers and everything else in pass protection i guess i'll just never really understand that and then you're forced to take another first round tackle what if you didn't

like what if that position was solidified then who can you take instead of derisaw if you trade down or if you stay last year, number 14. So some of these are interconnected of because this didn't work out, you had to do this, or because you made that decision, you had to do that. I think there's some of that here. Now I don't want to go through every single pick. So I just did want to look at the guys who were drafted. If they hadn't taken Ezra Cleveland, there was Denzel Mims, Christian Fulton, I don't think has really become anything. Packers hilariously picking A.J. Dillon. Willie Gay has become a very bad player,

I think, for the Chiefs. Jeremy Chin's a nice player. And then there's some other guys that are pretty likable after that. So, you know, none of these late second, third, fourth, none of them you can really go, oh, look at all the superstars after. That's kind of a first round thing only, but I agree. That's one that we'll wonder about for a while just because of the way that they handle it after. You looked closer at 2019, so I think there are maybe some regrets that have been discussed on the show from 2019. Yeah, starting right with the first round they go with Garrett Bradbury I think it's important to mention at this point the Vikings miss out on the playoffs uh they are looking to add that center right and they they just kind of take the center because that's the need uh that's kind of what happens here no one else it looks like, wants to take Garrett Bradbury that high.

He's got concerns about how long his arms are, if he's big enough to play the position. But he fits the Vikings' own scheme, and he is the best center there. And they go ahead and take Garrett Bradbury. And I think we've talked about this a lot recently and just over the past. But in general, just a complete lack of positional value awareness here and a complete lack of drafting need over best player available for the Vikings here. They're, I mean, Jeffrey Simmons went one pick after that, after him,

defensive tackle, not as not a huge positional value, but probably more than center. And this defense could have used someone like him there. But just beyond who they could have picked instead, the idea of taking a first round center because that was the need is just bad process. It's not good process. Then they take a tight end in the second. Again, not great positional value there.

I think you like Irv Smith. He had the injury. It felt like he was going to have a good year. So hard to knock that one crazy amount. Then you go running back again in the third round when you've already got one and you go guard Drew Simeon in the fourth, just not a good start to their draft in terms of taking guys at positions of high value. And I mean, it starts with Garrett Bradbury. That's going to be the one that lingers for them for a really long time because it's a first round pick. He hasn't worked out. And even if he was just an average center above average center, I think you can question this pick.

And so the fact that he's bad only just illustrates it even further that this was not a good start to their 2019 draft. And it just comes from this place of desperation that the Vikings found themselves in immediately after signing Kirk Cousins and always chasing to get back to that NFC championship game. And it's, oh, if we just get a center, we can be right back there. And it didn't happen. So the 2019 draft is really, I think, telling about how the Vikings have an analytics department, but didn't always use it because in the surplus value chart, which you can see purpleinsider.com is where the article is, but also pff.com is where you can see the entire article that explains

surplus value. But it's a very simple concept. It's like, if you get the guy in his rookie contract versus different levels of players who get paid as veterans, you know, what is that worth to your cap? And the lowest positions in terms of surplus value are tight end and center, right? Center is only 13 million. Consider a quarterback is 30 million. If you have one on a rookie contract versus paying an elite one and tight end is 13.8 and the thing that i've often said on the show that actually i i think i want to amend is if you're going to draft the center in the first round the guy has to become elite to be worth it and that's not even exactly true because uh if you look at a lot of the other positions it's broken

into second tier average players. There are other positions where even if you drafted a second tier receiver, a second tier tackle, a second tier, even safety, that's worth as much surplus value as an elite center. And what are the odds that any player that you draft is going to be elite? That's just not that high. And once you drop down to an average player at center, I mean, you're talking about almost no value there whatsoever. And the same thing exists for tight end. Like if the guy isn't elite, then there's not a lot of surplus value there.

And even if he is elite top tight ends only get $15 million. Top receivers are getting 25 million, which tells you what the league thinks of those two positions and what they mean to success, right? The pick after Irv Smith, AJ Brown. Yeah, right. And 10 days later, DK Metcalf. And even in between there, Paris Campbell probably has given them more value than Irv Smith has at this point. Just even marginal wide receivers at this point have probably given more than Irv Smith. And that's the point is that if AJ Brown, like AJ Brown and Irv Smith this year have great years and get a contract next year, or maybe AJ Brown's going to push them to do it this off season, but you get what I'm saying. If they both have great seasons, Irv Smith will get $10 million less per year than AJ Brown, because that's what those positions are worth. And that's why it's not worth it. The other part too, is if you need a tight end, number two, get them in free agency

because you only threw the ball to Irv Smith like 40, 50 times a year. And I mean, he was used as a deep threat. We talked about, oh, well he can go down the field. How many times in two years? A couple. Oh, he can run after catch how many big run after catches were there a couple there were a couple for tyler conklin last year and so i can think i can live in the space where i both think irv smith will have a great year but also look at this pick and go it just the situation you were in you had a tight end already, and it's not a great surplus value spot. Like this is the draft. I think this, the 2019 draft is the one that sends them off on this path that they ultimately ended up on. Like if you handle that differently, even if you take Jeffrey

Simmons with the next pick Darnell Savage, also the safety became really good. And remember, was that the year where there was all the, like looking forward to what Anthony Harris was going to be? So maybe there was a case for a safety. I don't exactly remember, but I think there was a case for a safety there. And they ended up franchise tagging Anthony Harris in 2020 to keep him. Another tremendously poor move. So you can see right there that they yes it's like

the quarterback contracts fault that they haven't been able to correct these mistakes but also some of these mistakes were foreseeable and the domino effect of a drafting a center and a tight end with your first two picks in 2019 is that you didn't get anything out of these positions over a couple of year period. And even as we stand right now, we don't know how much above average Irv Smith will be. We don't even know if Garrett Bradbury is going to be the starting center day one. It might be Chris Reed. I don't know. So, yeah, I mean, that draft sends them off on some kind of path that I think played a

major role in where they ended up. Do you want to, is there anything else you wanted to mention for 2019? Let's see here. I think, and again, they, in 2019, they take four seventh rounders. They take three third rounders. None of them besides like, I guess, Armin Watts in the sixth round, Ole Udo in the sixth round. But really no no no good

starters no average starters here and it's going through all it's like if they finally found one or two serviceable average starters in the sixth and seventh round here just would have liked if they would have tried to just move up a little bit with any of those picks more swings when you're not taking a long snapper late in the draft or you're not taking bc johnson way late in the seventh round a wide receiver he played well there for a stretch but just take a wide receiver in the fifth round try to get one of these guys that just are a little bit more talented uh but yeah the the two things that are just that stick out like uh sore thumb or the garrett bribery pick the Irv Smith pick. So many good wide receivers went after that.

DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, even like me, Cole Hardman, just like average starters that have had much, much more success. Okay.

So I did, I did take a quick look at 2018 too, depending on how much time we have, but I don't want to go on forever. But just to say that another thing that i can't quite wrap my head around it's not just the players they picked but the things that they did with the picks and trading away mike hughes last year was just a weird one like we never got an explanation classic rick spielman just i don't know what are you guys talking about like oh if i knew he was gonna play

and be decent for the chiefs then i wouldn't have traded him like wait could you what i mean what why wouldn't you let his rookie contract play out like he was under contract he was on your team and you traded him for nothing and then you desperate for cornerbacks and then you mis-evaluated his health because he was healthy enough to at least play that next year what i was i still cannot wrap my head around that one at all of why they handled it that way and didn't just like, hey, let's wait and see. And if the guy is healthy and plays really well,

then maybe he's a corner for us for a while. That will stick out in my mind. But also how wrong we can be sometimes in our draft takes on draft night because when they took Brian O'Neill, I thought, what the guy who weighs like, you know, 240 pounds or something. And then he showed up at rookie mini camp and I'm telling you, he didn't look anything like a tackle. And then all of a sudden he did, and he's one of their best players. And so sometimes you just don't know what somebody's going to become on draft night but um you know i also learned to think about it as in when someone has those

physical tools it's hard to question that as a draft pick because they can grow from that where it's harder to grow out of not having uh you know a 90th percentile or higher relative athletic score and that's what i was talking about with gladney, where it's like, what was the upside when he was undersized and old and didn't make plays in college? Like those are things you could see coming and say, yeah, those are red flags beyond what he did off the field. So it's always interesting to think about what we thought of those players on draft night and what they ultimately became.

So there you have it. A lot to take away, Kwesi, from the mistakes of your predecessors. Yeah. And I mean, it just continues the next years. There's one or two just, I think one of the things going through this exercise that I realized is I think the NFL is just coming to realize it a little bit more on positional value. I think this is something that obviously people have been talking about, but maybe hasn't been harped on as much as it has been harped on this year, at least in what I've been consuming. It feels like people are really coming to understand this at a really good level. And I don't think there was that level of scrutiny a few years back, but I think it was still

apparent in what you were doing. Like, Hey, maybe take a wide receiver over a tight end, or maybe, Hey, don't go for center in the first round, but just playing even further, like they they've had those picks. And so I think one thing that Casey can do that just would elevate the floor of their drafts is following what the approximate value, the estimated surplus value of things are, and just positional value in general, because even he doesn't have to be really good because if you don't draft for positional value, if you try to take these outliers, then you need those picks to be really good home run picks for them to work out. You need Garrett Bradbury to be at least above average elite to make that pick make sense. You need Irv Smith to be way above average elite to make that pick make sense. Now, if you just take a cornerback and he's average, like it works out with your, with the value proposition. If you take a wide

receiver and he's average, it works out. If you take a guard or a center in the fourth round, instead of in the first round, it works out better. And yes, you get a little lesser of a prospect, but you just need for them to be average. It's just, you don't need them to be elite. And yes, you get a little lesser of a prospect, but you just need for them to be average. It's just, you don't need them to be elite. And I think that's one mistake that Casey can avoid. And with his background, you'd expect him to avoid moving forward. So I think that gives you hope that some of these boom or bust drafts that Rick Spielman had are going to get leveled out a little bit more with a little bit more of an analytical approach that hopefully turns some of those misses into just average players. Yeah, that's a great point.

And I think that's what the surplus value chart really shows. I also think that in the past, these guys were just making their draft board based on who the best prospects were, and then just either picking them like, oh, this is the best prospect. So we're just going to pick them on and not considering positional value, or it was, this is what we desperately need as of this moment. And we got to win this year. We're all fired. And so we're picking this. And those are the two easiest ways to botch the draft. And I do think they're going to have a better process when it comes to that. So we've said process way too many times. So much. Yeah. I think the 76ers would be happy for us. So while I'm looking forward to draft night,

by the way, we're going to be out there, TCO Performance Center. We've got plans and other plans. We're adjustments upon adjustments, depending on what the Vikings do to have podcasts out pretty quickly and written work at purple insider.com and everything. The draft guide is coming on Monday. So very exciting stuff. So thank you for your time, Paul, as always.

And thank you all for listening to purple insider.