Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - How long we should give the 2022 Vikings draft class?

Episode Date: August 19, 2023

Matthew Coller talks with CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso about the major difference between the Vikings' 2022 and 2023 draft class and whether patience is still required for '22 or if it's time to call it. Plus why Jordan Addison has had a good training camp and whether Mekhi Blackmon can hold up. And then PFF's Amelia Probst stops by to talk about the data on young O-linemen and Vikings' schedule Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and returning to the show. It has been a while. Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports Draft Analyst. Chris, we just use you up and throw you out after draft season. That's just how it is. But you know what? We got to keep checking in.

What is going on, man? How are you? I'm doing really good and this is not quite the you know start of the religious weekly podcast from january to april but this is the next best thing like i i certainly love coming on at that time of the year to talk about all these kind of unknowns but it's actually more fun in a way right now or it's fun in its own way because now Vikings fans have read about this rookie class, know what they have in the 2022 group. So when I'm bringing up names and bringing up evaluations,

people aren't like, who's that guy from that college? So, yeah, I'm really looking forward to this episode. And just this is a fun time of year for me to get those first couple looks at players that I've watched over the last couple of years or the last couple of months for the rookies, just their first time on an NFL field. Yes, it's just the preseason, but it's better than just, you know, speculating about how good they're going to be, which is pretty much all I do during draft season. Yeah. And you actually start to get a sample size of players in the preseason. And I was joking the other day on the show that, of course, I'm going to cover every inch of a Vikings preseason game. But you would be hard pressed to make me watch other preseason games.

You, on the other hand, have to watch all of the preseason action. So I've got other players outside of the Vikings to ask you about as well in some of your evaluations. But there has been so much discussion during Vikings camp about the 2022 versus 2023 draft classes and just the stark difference about how everyone is doing. So I think the fundamental question that it comes down to with 2022 is how long should we give everyone? Because it is not really rolling along, except for a Caleb Evans starting at outside corner for the 2022 class. But I'm curious about what you think about where Louis seen stands so far,

because we kind of put a date on it. Like, hey, if we get to the joint practices and he hasn't taken a single first team rep, then there's a little bit of concern there and guess what the joint practices are here and he hasn't taken a single first team rep still though he had a major injury last year it's not like his career is over today where where do you stand on lewis seen the patience and what might be getting in the way of him taking the, you know, next step. Yeah, that's a really good question.

And I feel like we kind of broached this subject during the draft season or maybe right afterward about Louis scene. And could he kind of be that, you know, extra draft pick, so to speak, because he played so little last year. So, but with him and even with Andrew Booth, who did get beat for that touchdown in the preseason game, Jake Bobo of the Seahawks, I think you can have a little bit more of a leash, probably pretty deep into their second season because they just did not really play that much,

if at all, last year. The one thing I'll say, and I'm not trying to sound the alarm in Vikings land, watching the film from that Seahawks preseason game. It did not look like to me. And I'm interested to hear what, what you've seen at camp that scene had the same level of explosiveness that I saw on film at Georgia, that change of direction ability where he could stop and then explode in a different direction.

I remember we talked about it. You mentioned that, you know, in that little post-draft evaluation session that the Viking staff did with you guys in the media there, the local media, that we kind of agreed that Louisine had the twitch of a nickel corner, but he was big, six foot over 200 pounds at the safety spot. It didn't look like, I don't know if he doesn't trust his leg yet, or hopefully not for him that he's lost some of his just acceleration ability from that injury. So I think that's probably why we haven't seen him play to the level of where the Vikings expected him to be.

Just didn't look as explosive, you know, moving around and certainly changing directions is a key component to playing the safety position especially in the run game he was not coming downhill with aggression i thought that was quite clear that was his strength in georgia when that like when he would see an outside run it was a lightning bolt to the football and you're like man from georgia pretty solid tackler big that was like one of the you know certain positives that i feel like not only me but anyone else evaluating him saw i didn't see that um in that seahawks preseason game and this is what i'm interested in because

the transition from college to the nfl this is your life. This is what you study. And there are many instances of guys that you watched in college that they did certain things. And then in the NFL, you go, where was it? And I think that one of the reasons is because of how complicated the NFL is, how much you're having to assess and analyze and think at the same time is way, way different than college football. And there's no real way to decide. And you know this for many years of trying to evaluate prospects. There's no real way to decide, oh, well, he does this in college. So that will definitely translate to the X's and O's and how fast you read stuff and how

quickly things happen in the NFL. At the same time, I do want to give some leeway to the idea that the injury would have been very traumatic for him. And it was his first time back on a football field, but we also didn't really see it in training camp or preseason last year. So I guess I'm swinging back and forth, weighing these things, but I do feel like this is a very different looking player from the guy that you and I studied as soon as he came out from Georgia. Yeah, definitely. And I think to kind of stretch out that point a little further, that's kind of why we hear sometimes coaches and press conferences around this time of year,

or even early into a regular season when they're talking about, especially rookies, that they're not really playing fast. That doesn't mean that like, you know, Louisine can't run as fast as he did in the 40 yard dash coming out of Georgia. It's just everything's happening faster around them than even in the SEC. And there's so many more job responsibilities and checks and Hey, if this guy's here, I need to be there where they're thinking a little bit too much. So maybe that could be the case too forwisine and that's why i think back to my previous answer before that we should give more leeway to him and andrew booth because they didn't get that you know learning on the fly experience of hey i can't

just play truly as fast as i am like i did in college at clemson and georgia because i need to understand it's so much more mental and i'm thinking a lot more. So that hopefully for Louis scene's case is why he's not changing directions as rapidly because he's kind of pressing and he's trying to process a lot quicker. And it's a little bit more confusing in this defense than what he was really accustomed to at Georgia. Now, during draft season, you and I talk about this all the time. It's one of our biggest topics one of the most fun things because we're always reassessing this and trying to come up with new ideas

is how to grade and how to judge draft picks and naturally with this one and this is kind of a whole 2022 draft class thing but with lewis scene he's really the swing man to this class if he's good then the class is fine. Even if there's a couple of busts, there are always a couple of busts. But you really were looking for him to shape the secondary going forward in the future and be that big time playmaker that he hasn't been so far. But I want you to go back and think to the Lewis scene analysis that you had coming out. Did it make sense in your mind? Cause I didn't go back and listen to our podcast. Did it make sense to draft Louis C now we know about the trade down. I don't

think anyone really loved the trade down except for some people who create, you know, analytics charts said maybe it was okay. But, uh, by, by, you know, history speaking, usually the other team has to give up a first. That didn't happen. So I think that's fair to second guess that part. But it really hinges on the player because if he becomes good, then the trade looks so much better. So is it a second guessable draft pick from the outset or is it really just the result was not what they were looking for. I think you can second guess it a little bit because I guess there's kind of a debate among draft analysts. How valuable is the safety position? I know it obviously that pick came late and you obviously, like you mentioned,

have to factor in the trade down. Some people that are in my industry think that safety is super valuable because it's a position where there's not necessarily free and strong safeties anymore a lot of them play nickel their slot defenders is kind of like the new term that we've used over the last really only like two to three years so they have to do so many different things teams are obviously passing the football a lot more than they used to then there's the other school of thought this is a little bit of where I lean for as much as I think I'm not saying they're they're not valuable but when you're looking at the first round of a draft, there's a lot of other positions. And I feel like I use this term all the time with you. It doesn't really move the needle as much as offensive linemen or receivers or edge rushers, or even defensive tackles that can penetrate and get upfield. So from that perspective,

I think you could say, Hey, like they had Harrison Smith. They knew he wasn't close to retiring. He's been there now for two years with Louis Seen. The only way that I would say, regardless of the results, that you shouldn't second guess it is that, and I feel like we did talk about this as well during draft season, but as a refresher, it seems like this new regime wants those younger players with the mentors. There was Patrick Peterson last season with some of the young corners. Obviously, Andrew Booth didn't get to play a ton. I think they like to have that mentor and mentee relationship. Louisine learning from Harrison Smith, who was a big, physical, very athletic, do-everything safety coming out of Notre Dame,

that was probably something that was baked into them making that pick after the tradeback. As a prospect, now I was going back to look because I remember with the Laquan Treadwell stuff that Laquan Treadwell was a pretty hotly debated prospect, but there were a lot of people in the analysis world who loved him. And again, once someone goes bust, you can never convince anybody that it was like you, that the pick made sense because it went bust. But with Treadwell, you look at the other receivers in the class,

there's a bunch of busts in that class. And he had great college stats and, and on and on and on and on. Right. And I guess I wonder about, and I, and I wonder about Lewis scene with that because I looked at Lance zero line,

NFL.com. He was not in love with Lewis scene. He actually compared him to Anthony Harris, which I thought if you're drafting Anthony Harris as a first rounder, that's probably not where you want to go. But there were other people who had him much higher. And the consensus board, I think on, what is it, draft breakdown or whatever it is, mock draft breakdown, had it as like 34th.

So right in the area that he was taken, all of this matters to me. It doesn't matter like on the field because if he's not good, he's not good. But it does matter when we're looking back and we're taking the accumulation of a small sample size of a new general manager to say, should we be kind of looking back at that

and going, what were you doing there, bro? Or is it like this was a good prospect and it just hasn't clicked yet and we need to give it some time well i think i would start with the former with that because it was kind of multi-layered like you're sitting there you can pick your player and oh you're gonna trade back with the lions in your division and most of the draft boards in terms of the trade charts were like, they didn't really get great value. And then you pick a safety that like you're mentioning was not this like slam dunk, like, Oh my God,

they're getting Derwin James level prospect. And I'm willing to admit like, you know, maybe I was a little bit off on him. I had him as my 25 overall player. So it's not like I, I thought that was, you know, really a reach at all, but I do know, like you mentioned, there were others in the industry that was a you know really a reach at all but I do know like you mentioned there were others in the industry that were you know thought you know early second but even at that point I think most people weren't like whoa this is like a name out of nowhere

but it was not a slam dunk type you know player that they felt they could get later in the first round so because of those two layers and you factor in the NFC North and then the year later, you know, there's so much hype coming out of Detroit with what they've been able to do. Not that Jamison Williams has necessarily turned out, but the trade back has been kind of a, a controversial one. So to have it be multi-layered and then have Louisian get hurt and then not

necessarily even be playing with the first team very close to the regular season i think you can kind of second guess it because of all those dynamics that were at play and the fact that kyle hamilton is just good and if you wanted a safety and a dynamic weapon maybe he was a slam dunk guy he was a slam dunk guy he was the everyone loved him he's a freaky athlete he was at Notre Dame, was good for multiple seasons. So that's what was kind of head scratching about it as well. So I think with this one, yeah, when you add up all the accumulation of factors, it is fair, but I would also hold out for if suddenly next year, Lewis scene has it all click and is good, then it ends up being justified. And so i would put it at trending very poorly

but could also turn around it would not be the first guy in his third year to finally have it click in yeah one more uh thing on this that i want to ask you have the vikings or lewis seen himself spoke about his uh you know is he not super aggressive or doesn't feel the confidence in his lower half? Because I think at times today we think, oh, ACL injury, you're back in seven, eight months. You're fine. You're young. I always kind of, you know, blend in some of my bill stuff here. Tredavious White tore his ACL Thanksgiving, 2021. He didn't play again until Thanksgiving, 2022. and it was a slow process like he wasn't really back to 100% in really until almost January the Bills playoffs when they started last season so I think yes the vast majority of these insanely you know top one percent of one percent athletes especially in

their early 20s usually come back within nine months from you know even very serious achilles and acls and pcls but i don't think that's the case it's not 100 guaranteed for every single player in the nfl and so there hasn't been any connecting those two uh it's been a lot of sort of well lewis this year is acting a little more professionally, which makes you go. So wait last year, then there was like, he's learning to be a pro we hear and like, oh, okay. I kind of get what you're saying.

Some guys pick up on that earlier than others, but what happens if you don't pick up on it right away, which is how to study, how to pay attention in meetings, how to, you know, pay attention to your body and all those things that somebody else takes your job. And that's, what's happened with Cam Bynum who has become a reasonable player. So that all factors in, he was there for OTAs, mini camp, training camp. Like, I don't know if I can really put that excuse out there, but I would say that it was a catastrophic injury so there's also you know there's really no way of knowing how much it's impacting him i would guess that it probably is in his first game action but you can't kind of erase what you knew before so the rest of the class though is also up for debate caleb evans looks like he's trending very well as a starter

and then we'll see how that all works out. But the Andrew Booth Jr. pick and the Ed Ingram pick, Andrew Booth Jr., I think a lot of us are sort of ready to go. I just don't think this is ever going to happen. The too many injuries for one, and then just the fact that he was quickly passed by by Makai Blackman, who we will absolutely get to as the first team corner. He has not taken, Andrew Booth Jr. has not taken a single first team rep all throughout OTA's mini camp training camp that I've been there for. So not a single one.

Yeah. And Ed Ingram is an interesting case because there's expectation that he's going to take the next step. He played a ton of football last year, but you watch the Seattle game and guess who you saw one starting offensive lineman, which makes you go, uh, okay,

well, that's interesting because there's, you know, that doesn't always happen that they just pick one guy to put out there. And the explanation was, was very much like, we love what he's doing in training camp. He's got to do this and this and this and this and this, but you know, we love what he's doing in training camp. He's got to do this and this and this and this and this.

But, you know, we love what he's doing. And those are two others that I'd love your take on kind of what is maybe has held them back potentially based on their skill sets and just whether we should believe that there's anything more there. All right. I'm going to mix in someone who we talked about a lot a couple of years, Trey Lance, and the roundabout way to get back to Andrew Booth. I really think with Andrew Booth and Trey Lance, and I'm not giving them crutches and defending them for any – like I have no reason to do that. I just think Andrew Booth and Trey Lance have just not played enough football in the last two years.

He was dinged up at Clemson, couldn't do anything during the pre-draft process, got hurt last year. And I think at corner, like you just mentioned, if you're not playing, you're going to get passed up by someone like a third-round pick in Makai Blackman, someone who's ready, who's available, who's played a lot of football recently, who doesn't have to brush off any rust. And with Ed Ingramram that just goes back i mean i'm not going to say that i totally nailed that one but i think a lot of us thought

hey this was a very weird fit and i feel like on that post draft episode in 2022 i was like why did they pick this big like heavy-footed power blocker in an offense that prioritizes or we at least thought prioritized you know agility and balance on the move that's just not ed ingram's game so i'm not really surprised about him and like you mentioned if he's playing and he's the only quote-unquote first team offensive lineman on the field in a preseason game i think they want to see more from him than even what they're saying into the media folks late summer and fall are always a crazy time for me with football and i have hardly any time for a good meal i'm always finding myself in drive-thrus and running around but that is changing with factor america's number one ready to meal kit. They can help you just like they're helping me. Fuel up with fast, chef-prepared, dietician-approved, ready-to-eat meals delivered straight to your door.

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There's no question and it's hard to figure out with offensive linemen when it's supposed to click in how long it could be how long they're supposed to wait and this is something that the vikings themselves in the recent past have also struggled to figure out like how how long do we give this guy that we drafted and hope develops before we just say it's not working the numbers are what they are from last year and the early signs of training camp are i have no idea i mean just to tell you the truth i i don't know how am i supposed to watch a handful of 11 on 11 reps and go oh yeah he's taking the next step or no it's going to be the same problems there's there has been a lot of pressure on k cousins from Brian Flores, his defense though. I would say that. And I think that, you know, I don't know if I had to guess,

I would say it's probably not going to be a big step forward, but they also have to kind of decide, do we bring in Dalton riser? Do we make a change here? Do we, you know, bring in somebody else to compete with him? Or do we have somebody waiting in the wings in case this goes bad? And once again, it kind of goes back to, there were the signs there that this could be the case. And if Ingram doesn't take the big step, or at least his average, then I think that there is a lot of criticism that is justified from fans about this, this class. In fact, the funny thing is with Andrew Booth Jr. I actually really liked the pick at the beginning until he said he was always hurt and then I liked it less. It was like, you know, I thought, oh, wow, they got a guy who was projected as a mid first round pick in the second.

And then all the injury history has just come to fruition. But I think with these two, it's pretty easy to say, yeah, I think you could have seen this coming. Yeah, here's what I'll say on Ed Ingram specifically. If you're like wondering when can this jump happen? Like historically, how does it happen for, you know, a second or a third round or year two, year three, when is it? It's usually like the Brian O'Neill cases where the talent is there. The fundamentals are there, the balance, the technique, they just need to get stronger. And I write that, and I probably said it on this podcast a bunch during draft

season, that Tristan Wirfs is the one guy that I can really point to to say he was what I call NFL strong. And that's a phrase you probably remember from January through April with me. Once he was in college, like he entered the league, NFL strong, was able to just hit the ground running almost every other, like between even first to third round blocker, it takes them a year to be able to deal with the power that they're going to see on a consistent basis at the NFL level. I don't think that's a problem with Ed Ingram. And that's why I'm a little concerned concerned it's very rare to suddenly see a big heavy footed blocker especially a guard suddenly become agile and be able to get to those second level blocks with a lot of consistency and be under control and be

balanced so unfortunately for him it's not just hey you just got to get a little bit stronger it took Brian O'Neill three seasons then he became an elite right tackle Christian Derrissaw had all of that like those things together needed to get a little stronger and get healthy then he was outstanding as well Ingram I just don't I can't think of a lot of cases where it's oh you need to like slim down and maybe lose some of your power so you can be more mobile in this wide zone scheme so that's where i'm a little concerned about his you know chances of a year to break out because we just don't see that very often going in that direction for a blocker the other thing that i heard and my ears perked up was when west phillips i think it was in minicamp maybe use the word false step and anytime i hear that i go oh that's not good

because that's a very hard thing to fix. And maybe you have a better explanation about it than I do. But when you have to go in the NFL, it's like, you got to go. There can't be hesitation at all. There can't be, well, you start to just naturally take a step this way and then go sort of like if you're hitting a 95 mile an hour fastball, you can't have your hands do something first they just gotta get right to the ball that's how i think of it and it's hard to spot for me like not being an offensive lineman things like that but when i hear those words come up i go i wonder if that's a thing and also just recognition is a thing from offensive lineman and that's where i think if you're going to take that

next step for him if it is possible it's recognition it's he can see more of these blitzes and understand them better and know where to be because i do think that that was one of the biggest issues is just not recognizing what was coming his way yeah and with that false step point uh that's a good one for Wes to bring up. I just think with Ingram, he's not used to doing a lot of what Kevin O'Connell is going to ask of him, to get so lateral in such a hurry that, like I said, of course, at LSU, they occasionally ran inside zone, outside zone. Every run game has that, but it was mostly downhill power running where he could climb to the second level just getting north-south, and that's why he was widely considered a second, third, fourth-round pick

in that right scheme. I'm just looking back over here, and this is always a fun game to play, the hindsight, who they could have picked. Bernard Ryman from Central Michigan who's with the Colts, he plays tackle, a lot more athleticism. There was another one. Dylan Parham from Memphis, kind of the same type, but I thought he had more athleticism. Sean Ryan from UCLA, who went to the Packers later in the third round.

So those were all blockers that would have, I think, been better scheme fits. And that's why I said coming on that post-draft episode that I get the idea to address the guard position, but it's not surprising that there's false steps. There's times where he doesn't look like he knows what's coming because it's just moving way too fast for him. He's not used to, you know, handling those same job responsibilities that Kevin O'Connell is asking of him. He just didn't do that in college at LSU. It just wouldn't be a Vikings show if we didn't spend 20 minutes on the guard, but we're going to move on.

Now, what if I told you, 30 for 30 music, what if I told you that Ivan Pace won the job over Brian Asamoah and to start next to Jordan Hicks. Now, this has not happened yet. It's not being determined. But Ivan Pace has taken way more first-team reps in training camp overall than Brian Asamoah, especially over the last couple of weeks. And then I thought had a very good game against Seattle, save for a penalty and maybe one coverage rep, which hurt his PFF grade. But, I mean, I thought what you saw was a little wrecking ball. I kind of called him Sonic the Hedgehog because he he just like he had so much quickness and speed but then if he beats out asamoah you kind of go like well wait a minute what about that 2022 draft pick guy and there's also the possibility that you know jordan hicks ends up shockingly getting the axe or

something i don't think that they'll do that but but it just looks like Ivan Pace Jr. throughout training camp is out playing Osamu. And I guess the question is how the heck does this happen with an undrafted free agent? Yeah, it's a fantastic story. I'm not super surprised. I think if Ivan Pace was even 5'11 or 6'0 and 230 pounds, no way he goes undrafted. Because the 5'10, I think, probably scared away some teams. But on film, I think this is kind of a way to discuss how traits kind of translate to the next level and how they're functional on the football field. I think the fact, this might sound crazy, but that he's 5'10 actually helps him in the leverage game. That when those guards get up to him, he's underneath their pad. There's no way that, yes, at times a bigger blocker will be able to

just shove him out of the way or drive him out of the running lane. But a lot of times he was so good stacking and shedding at Cincinnati and before that at Miami of Ohio, because he wins the leverage battle every single time because he's built so low to the ground. Beyond that, he's very willing. Like he's someone that in the box when he's attacking downhill or even getting outside, scraping to an outside run, he understands, Hey, look, this is going to be pretty violent play that I have to kind of do here, but he's going to get up and into those blockers before they can get to him. So I think he's playing a lot like he did at Cincinnati. I think he's useful as a blitzer. And I saw him in coverage at Cincinnati and thought, okay, this is not Eric Kendrick's 2.0, but it's someone that is not just, hey, I'm going to be downhill. I'm going to be super aggressive. He understood route concepts behind him pretty well. And he's kind of like the same

size as a lot of running backs who are, you know, around five, 10, 220, 230 pounds. So it's certainly a little surprising because he's an undrafted rookie beating out, you know, a what day to pick in Brian Asamoah, but based on their film from Oklahoma and Cincinnati, I don't think they're drastically different players, different measurables. But in terms of traits, I think you would look at Ivan Pace and say, Hey, if he's six foot 225, he's probably a third or a fourth round pick as well. So I think people got hung up on the lack of height and maybe there'll be times where throws down the seam can you know be thrown over his head because he just isn't that tall but in terms of like what you want a linebacker to do

stacking and shedding covering well man coverage sinking in zone not being sucked up by play action i thought he was a very refined linebacker coming into this draft so it's not crazy surprising given just the type of polished player he was as a prospect i was also brought up on the broadcast that they had him call the defense in the game which makes you immediately perk up to oh does this guy get it like it because if he does then all of that stuff can happen and to me we were talking about how lewis scene did not look twitchy uh ivan pace looks very twitchy i mean he looked like he was just wherever he was going, he was going full speed. And Jordan Hicks said this to me one time. He said, if I'm going to go,

if I'm wrong, I'd rather be wrong going full speed than if I'm just, you know, trying to be hesitant because then I'm going to get beat either way. And I thought that made a lot of sense. Yeah. that made a lot of sense. Where did you have him coming out? Did you have him as a draft pick? Yeah, I had him in the seventh round, which now, I mean, even one preseason game in and I've read all the buzz from camp. It seems kind of silly.

Maybe I got a little bit caught up on the lack of size as well. But again, this was a very polished player coming out. His athleticism wasn't through the roof. I was thinking a little bit kind of concerned about that at the next level, but if you can keep him mostly in the box attacking downhill, and when I say attacking, I mean attacking. He's going to attack blocks because he knows kind of to your point there about what Jordan Hicks told you. If he's hesitant at all all he's going to get engulfed and just completely overwhelmed pushed out of the play he never does that and I think they're with Brian Flores and that what we know about the scheme that it is going to be very blitz heavy with safeties and linebackers uh he's very good in that regard because of that tenacity that he plays with um so i guess we're moving to the 2023 class

with that uh it's looking it's looking like it's gonna have a huge impact here chris because jordan addison early returns what he did in the preseason game sometimes for me as a reporter i will say this when you're watching practice all the time and you're trying to relate to the outside world and then they get to see it the people who haven't visited camp and they're just reading what we're saying or watching the show or listening to the show it's rewarding it's like see we've been saying that's what's going on that diving catch out of bounds and i actually thought the other one needed some contorting as well to kind of adjust to not a great football from Nick Mullins. And it was like, that's the one.

That's it. That's it. Like the DiCaprio meme. There it is. Where should we set the expectations, though? This is a constant debate on the sidelines with reporters, and I'm sure that fans are wondering this, too, because I still think that K.J. Osborne, who's had a phenomenal training camp and off season is going to be their number two wide receiver to start.

But when you see raw talent like this, making special plays and special catches, that's how you get on the field. It's really just a matter of blocking, which is a big deal in this system. And it's also a matter of, can you really get down the details because Kevin O'Connell does not make it easy on his wide receivers. So I think there will be an adjustment period, but it seems to me like

everything that Jordan Addison was billed as is coming to fruition in training camp and now preseason. Yeah, we certainly saw it in the preseason game and one note about that deep over that he caught. And I don't know if this was a wrinkle that Kevin O'Connell or the wide receiver coach asked of him, but he didn't just like run a rounded deep over. He kind of like sold that he was going to go vertical and that safety sunk back. He almost made himself more open.

I think either way he was going to be open based on like the zone coverage that the back end players were in, but selling it a little bit that he was going to be open based on like the zone coverage that the backend players were in, but selling it a little bit that he was going deep, really opened up a huge hole for the quarterback to throw him the football. Those are the little things that you're talking about that he did so well at Pittsburgh early in his career and at USC last year. And I think you're probably right that the safe bet is, hey, they're going to go with the veteran that they know that's in the system that produced last year in KJ Osborne to start but I really think it'll be probably by

October that Jordan Addison is is second in the pecking order in terms of targets now in terms of expectations I think you would be probably better to answer that than me because it's like there's Justin Jefferson obviously is the elephant in the room and Kevin O'Connell and the Shanahan systems pedigree of just highlighting a number one receiver. And it's like, okay, I think I read some, Hey, like there's going to be a lot of rolled coverage to Justin Jefferson. This is going to leave Jordan Addison wide open, but it almost feels like it doesn't matter if there's rolled coverage to Justin Jefferson, he's still going to get his targets and his catches and his touchdowns and his

receiving yards. So it's kind of, it's very difficult to pinpoint, you know, what Jordan Addison's production could be this season. But I certainly think even though he's a relatively younger prospect, he's capable of being that hit the ground running number two wide receiver, because I think this is an offense that's not necessarily predicated on yards after the catch but intricacy as a route runner and like you mentioned doing the little things very well and I think that is where he thrives he's not going to create a ton after the catch but he's going to get open with good regularity and I think that's more important than anything else in today's NFL.

Yeah, it's a great observation. And this time around, I get to be the guy who goes, if it works out the way that it's going so far, I get to be the one who's like, see, I said way back in March, they should draft Jordan Addison. Yeah, exactly. That was my first draft sim was Jordan Addison. But my reasoning on it, and it's not, I mean, I'm not patting myself on the back because I've certainly been wrong enough times, but I think route running is just the ball game. Route running and ball tracking, and that's how you win. The guys who track the ball well and run great routes, they're going to give you the best chance to succeed. And anybody can bust, but I'm going to put my bets on those guys. And that's what Jordan

Edison was and his ball tracking and his body control and making plays along the sidelines, difficult catches. It's all been there. And I think the expectations because of this training camp should be very, very high. Now, Makai Blackman was a debated draft pick when it happened because of consensus boards. And we've been over that whole consensus board thing, but starting, did you think that he would be a starter right away? How did you feel about him coming out and where should we set the bar for him? I didn't think he'd be starting this early. Like if you're telling me that Andrew Booth has not played one first team rep over McKay Blackman in camp. And then in the preseason game, I thought Blackman was very good. I wasn't seeing him being that instant impact

starter, like right, like opposite the number one corner, but based on how pesky he was at the line of scrimmage. And like you just mentioned, it's kind of a mirrored position, obviously wide receiver and corner. I'm a big proponent of, did a cornerback get his hands on a lot of footballs in college? Was he breaking up a lot of passes? And certainly Blackman did that at USC. I was a little concerned about his spindly frame.

And I think like we saw with the penalty in the game, that he is going to be overly grabby and there are going to be some bigger wide receivers and not even just like Mike Evans 6'5 230 like even like the six foot six one 200 pound receivers are very strong in their upper half beating press at the line of scrimmage dealing with physicality throughout the route that's where he could struggle a little bit because he is so spindly but in terms of just having instincts even on the touchdown that he was in tight coverage he was right there like that was a ridiculous throw from julek he almost didn't realize a throw was even going to be made because he was in so tight on that i just think he's really one of those natural sticky corners that

usually has good awareness he didn't on that play necessarily. When the ball is arriving, I was seeing him as someone that could be a contributor in year one. I just didn't think it would happen early on, even before the regular season started. I think, you know, we were talking about Ivan Pace and just his physical nature. And I mean, it's football, man. So like this guy gets in people's faces, Makai Blackman, and he's going to play physical and it's going to cause some penalties at first. There's no question about it. I mean, even where I was very impressed on one route that was overthrown by Drew Locke,

I saw him putting some hands on the receiver a little bit farther down the field and maybe you could get penalized for that. But at the same time, it's what is the saying? It's easier to say, whoa, then go. I mean, the fact is that he wants to same time it's what is the saying it's easier to say whoa than go i mean the fact is that he wants to get in people's faces and play physically and also welcome to the nfl where a backup quarterback can make that throw for a touchdown against him there you go that's the league for you man uh so i think there's going to be a learning curve but when you kind of have

this natural like you said stickiness that's a great starting point and then if you've impressed brian floris enough to be on the field they haven't gone out and gotten another defensive back who's a veteran or anything like that i i think that that really speaks well of his game and gosh it just feels so much different talking about one draft class versus the other because it's the first half of our show is man. It's just all. And then it's like, wow, look at these guys.

Yeah. So perfect segue to, from Ivan pace to Blackman. And that you just kind of said it. They're both attackers. Like they understand I'm smaller. I mean, with pace is that he's short.

He doesn't have long arms with Blackman. He understands he's not 210 pounds. Not that you need to be that, that heavy at corner, but he's pretty spindly. You can see it on film. I don't remember exactly what he was weight-wise coming out, but he just looked spindly on film. That helps them, that they don't shy away from it. They play bigger than their size because they are not timid out there whatsoever. I think if you're going to make it, whether it be a third round pick or a rookie undrafted free agent that has those size deficiencies,

you have to just lean into it and say, look, I know I'm small, so I'm going to attack. So I think that really plays well for both of them. And yes, it does kind of seem like night and day between 2022 and 2023. I do want to mention though, Luigi Villain looked very good, undrafted free agent. I loved him. I think I had like a top 125 grade on him in 2022. Very slippery player. I know it was against backups, of course. It wasn't against Charles

Cross and Abraham Lucas, those two rookies from last year on the edge for Seattle who were really good. But he just kind of looks like he did at wake forest in that final season after transferring from Michigan, that he's like almost in a way like pace and like Blackman where he's just naturally like good at his job. He's slippery. There's not a lot of things that you can look at on a mock draftable web or, you know, just in terms of measurables, but he just understands how to use his hands with those swipe moves

and how to just continue to hustle throughout a play to get the strip sack late on that outside rush that didn't win initially. So he's one that I remember bringing him up late in the episode after 2022 post-draft to say, Luigi Villain might be someone that looks like that inside outside rusher because of his bigger frame that has good handwork who could maybe start in the practice squad and then maybe by year two or year three become that good situational player it's still relatively early but i think it was a good start for him against the seahawks folks we've got a bunch of sports teams here in town. And also for someone like myself, I always like to try to catch a ball game when I am traveling to cover football in a different city.

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Download the game time app, create an account and use the code insider for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again, create an account redeem with the code insider for $20 off. Download the game day app today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed and he was on the 53 last year after a great preseason and then he comes out and does it again

i even wonder and i don't want to be definitive about this but i wonder if he would be behind dj wanham in their rotation and not patrick Jones, at least who's played better in the preseason game and training camp. It's Luigi Villain. And I think what Brian Flores has shown very clearly is he does not care where you were drafted. I think most coaches don't, but he really hasn't because the 2022 class has first and second round picks sitting and undrafted free agents and third round and undrafted free

agents playing. So it's clear. I think that he's going to do that, which, which, which is really good. And I think that there's a lot of guys who are fits for Brian Flores that maybe, you know, they drafted when it was a different type of defense that aren't as good a fits. I'm sure you have a thousand more things to say about these draft classes, but we, this is not draft season. We don't need to make this an hour and 20 minute epic as we

have so many times so let me just uh allow you to live your life a little here and ask you this who has impressed you from the top of the draft class of 2023 anthony richardson named a starter shocker uh bryce young named a starter total shocker but uh maybe maybe what have been your some of some of your observations on those guys yeah so one player who we talked about a lot i remember talking about him pre-workout at the combine deontay banks of the giants uh was someone that i think a lot of vikings fans thought hey if they want to go corner he could be someone that they could pick uh had a pair of pass breakups in his preseason debut. He just feels like that perfect press man corner for Wink Martindale's system

with the Giants. And then Felix Yanyudike Uzama, who was another one that we discussed. If the Vikings didn't want to go edge rusher in the first round, had three pressures against the Saints. Just watched him last night. And it's kind of funny. I was on One Bills Live, which is like a daily Bills show here in Buffalo. We had Greg Cosell on.

And what he said he does for these preseason games is look to see if rookies are playing like they did in college. Are they playing as fast? You know, we talked about that with Luisina. I don't think he was playing as fast as he did whether it was mental or physical felix and you dk uzama and dionte banks like it didn't look like they were wearing a different helmet like they looked like they were at maryland and kansas state uh the outside speed rush for and you dk uzama was really good the chiefs need a secondary rusher opposite chris jones so really none of the

quarterbacks were like wow wow, what a start. I mean, Anthony Richardson, beyond the pick, I think played the best of the three. But those two defensive players, I thought, not only were they good fits schematically, they're what those teams needed in the Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs. And they really hit the ground running with their first preseason start, making some plays in coverage and as a pass rusher i did notice anthony richardson run directly into the chest of a linebacker and i was just like that looks like dante culpepper to me where you expect the

quarterback to just kind of go out of bounds or slide and he probably should learn to slide but very josh allen like where the linebacker's like okay it's the quarterback i'm going to tackle oh no he's coming for you he's targeting you you're not targeting him uh which i think that richardson everyone's going to talk about how raw he is we're going to see that throughout the season there's going to be some bad throws as there always are for rookies but one of the things i look for with these quarterbacks and a preseason, so I didn't watch a lot.

I just wanted to see a little Anthony Richardson. But how in command do you look? And I thought of the quarterbacks, the most in command looked like it was Anthony Richardson. Just even body language walk up. This is my football team. Yeah, no, definitely. And I kind of had the same takeaway.

I watched all three of them I thought Bryce Young looked the least in command and he was under duress I don't know if it was the full Carolina Panthers offensive line but they weren't necessarily facing Quinn and Williams and company but it was Jermaine Johnson who was a first round pick last year Will McDonald who was the 15th overall pick this year, just looked like, I don't know, like this is going to sound silly, but he just looked small.

His arm did not look very live and he looked a little timid, like, Oh, I'm just going to throw it into the flat here and then take a big shot. Richardson throws the pick on the first drive. And then like later has a couple of nice throws over the middle. Didn't look scared. Like you mentioned,

just running into corners and linebackers at the next level, popping right back up. He had a really good throw from about the 20 or 30 yard line to the front corner of the pylon. That should have been a touchdown. Alec Pierce couldn't reel it in. He looked more in command. CJ Stroud certainly had his struggles as well.

Then the two who were kind of billed as the more pro ready pass passers because of experience, and it was relatively justified, I think. But Bryce Young, to me, that was kind of my concern with him and why he was my quarterback three, just the physical traits that are not there with him. Like everything with him, if he does succeed, is going to be because he understands where to go with the football in a hurry, pre-snap, post-snap, faster than the others. But in a first preseason game where you're obviously not game planning you're not doing

you know scripting the first 15 plays necessarily I'm not sure if the Panthers did that he just looked like oh that's the number one overall pick like throwing quick throws into the flat and taking big shots like I was a little concerned watching Bryce Young and I came away with the same thoughts about Anthony Richardson being in a lot more of a command of the offense after only 13 starts in college than I was expecting. Okay. Last thing, uh, because Anthony Richardson is a, I'm going to ride that roller coaster wherever it takes me. And I decided that probably after the first time I saw him against Utah, I was, I was like the Dave Gettleman where I saw like five plays against Utah. I was like,

that's my guy. I'm going to say, I'm going to go wherever he goes. And if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But those physical traits are so preposterous that I'm going to take my shot. So he was my QB one.

We'll see how that works out. You know, obviously, obviously this does not determine it. This preseason game, but I just thought, well, okay.

It looks like he's in command. Now give me the late rounder who you were dying on their hill throughout draft season because I got one for me. And you see him a little in preseason. You go, I knew it. I knew it. That guy, A.T. Perry is my guy. I saw A.T. Perry catching a bunch of passes.

He did. The Saints looked good offensively. You know who else? I'm sure a bunch of passes and i was like you know who else i i'm sure a bunch of vikings fans dorian thompson robinson is probably another guy who's played extremely well and again it's pre-season it's not predictive but uh he has played i mean way better than jaron hall played of course and i think that there was a report that the vikings were thinking about taking thompson robinson but he was taken earlier whatever it doesn't matter he's probably a guy that a lot of Vikings fans were like I thought I thought he could be pretty good looking about there yeah I'm trying to there's so many that are running through my head um honestly Dwayne McBride was one of them I know I mentioned

him on the on the post draft episode that we did had a couple nice runs um At first looked a little shaky, like he wasn't sure which hole to hit, but then after he got a few more carries with the Vikings, I think he looked like who I saw at UAB. Had a nice – I think there was a pitch out where he looked explosive, made multiple cuts, made some defenders miss, picked up six or seven yards. He was really one that I was banging the table for after the draft. I was actually down in fort lauderdale at the cbs sports headquarters and they had me on like i think uh uh uh their uh like

main fantasy podcast afterward like hey who are some late round running backs and i was like ding ding ding dwayne mcbride seventh rounder that was before devin cook was released but then it felt like he was probably going to get traded or released um so he sticks out i'm just looking at the uh how about i've got another one that i liked for no particular reason but rashaun johnson from the bears uh the guy who beat bijan robinson's backup i i remember thinking when the first time i saw texas i was like oh this must be bijan robinson the guy they're talking about no actually that's his backup. And so I saw that he had a pretty good game.

Aiden O'Connell was a quarterback, kind of liked him out of Purdue that I thought looked pretty good in the preseason. I think it's part of the fun is to talk about guys that were fifth-rounders or something. It's like so – I'm not going to say that I'm like super nerdy and I'm like watching the fourth quarter of every preseason game. I'll like turn it on. Oh, hey, look, it's Thursday night.

I'll put on this game. And then like a few minutes in, I'm like, all right, this is boring. And then like I'll hear a name like that where I'll hear, oh, that was a nice run by Roshon Johnson. I'm like, oh, yeah, Roshon Johnson's in this game probably right now. One other name that I'll bring up, Bell of the 49ers uh went in the seventh round I like enamored by I guess it's John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan and like kind of running that draft room finding these awesome yards after the catch players because for as much as I'll

admit and I agree with you that separation ability at receiver is more important than anything else. The 49ers and the Chiefs and the Bengals, I think part of why they've become so dynamic offensively, they're so awesome after the catch with Debo and Brandon Ayuk and Curtis Samuel and Jamar Chase, even Jawan Jennings, who was a seventh round pick, I believe in 2020 was this big, like not athletic former quarterback who was just like a moose in the open field. Ronnie Bell made a couple of nice catches and had a jet sweep where he made like three or four defenders miss in that first preseason game. So Ronnie Bell is someone at Michigan that I thought, hey, this guy should be picked before the seventh round. The 49ers of all teams picked him. He was very good after the catch in the big 10 so he was someone that was i was watching that game late was it sunday and i was like oh ronnie

bell holy crap like i forgot about him from those months where they're like you're inundated with all these players then you're like you kind of forget about him in the summer you're golfing you're doing other stuff and then it's like oh yeah let's watch ronnie bell in the fourth quarter make some play so there's plenty of them around the league. We could have another 30 minutes where I could rattle some of these off. We could go back and forth. But he and Dwayne McBride would probably be my two favorites that went in the seventh round, who I think can be good players relatively early in their careers.

Yeah, I'll admit. So I said like, oh, I don't really watch these preseason games or whatever. But then this guy and this guy. And you see that guy? Yeah, exactly. I don't really watch these preseason games or whatever, but then this guy and this guy, and you see that guy. I was watching, uh, Chris Trapasso, you're the best man. This was a great analysis and insight into what we've seen from these draft classes. And of course you will not be a stranger around the show throughout the season as we consistently check in on how things are going. And we've also got unproven quarterbacks in the division, controversial draft in Detroit. This could have gone on much longer. And so we will

pick it up another time very soon. Thanks so much. And great to connect with you again, man. Sure thing. Thanks, Matt. Joining me, PFF data scientist, Amelia Probst, whose work I have been admiring for some time and have wanted to get you on the show. And guess what? We're here. Amelia, how are you? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me. Absolutely. Now, before we get into Vikings related stuff and a lot of the work that you've done that relates to the Vikings recently, we have to start out with the fact that you are a Buffalo Bills fan by nature.

And I'm very curious about this because I was talking to one of my friends in Buffalo the other day about teams that have come close for a while and not gotten over the hump. And, of course, that is the history of both the Minnesota Vikings and the Buffalo Bills. The Vikings just had a run that was sort of similar to that, where it was every year, hey, it's Super Bowl or bust. If it doesn't work out, then it's a failure. I guess I wonder what you think of just because of your age, I'm guessing you grew up with a lot of horrendous football. And then only recently that has turned to huge expectations and sort of what that's been like for you on that journey yeah so like you said um i'm 23 so i didn't grow up like with you know the super bowls or anything like that where the

bills missed out but um yeah it's been rough going through the the rex ryan era and so forth but yeah we've made a comeback so no it's a crazy time to be in the AFC for sure. And then obviously with all the Aaron Rodgers stuff and Dalvin Cook now joining the Jets, it'll be interesting to see how Aaron Rodgers ends up performing on a new team. But I'm still feeling confident that the Bills will win the division this year. So, we'll see. Knock on wood there. Are you buying Rodgers? I know that obviously Haley has already gotten her Super Bowl ring brandished

and ready to go. But I think that there is some reason to be skeptical. I mean, signing Delvin Cook is not like a game-changing move for them. And, I mean, I think that they're probably still not as good as at least one or two other teams, even in the AFC East. Yeah. No, i definitely agree i'm not too high on the jets specifically aaron rogers like i think he's been declining over the

past few years and obviously he's still amazing but i think he's reaching the end of this career and even though he'll have great wide receivers around him i'm still not feeling too confident that like you know him and dalvin cook and everyone else will really make that big of a difference and give them that big of a push i i'm sorry hayley but i have to put some skepticism in there yeah and uh for those who uh don't uh remember or are new to the show hayley english was our former intern here on purple insider now working with the detroit lions in the summer as an analytics uh intern for. So very, very happy for her in doing that. But let's dive into some of your work here. So you wrote an article about young offensive linemen going from college to the NFL and some of the factors. And something that I've been very interested in and we've been talking about a lot

over the summer is the Vikings right guard was drafted in the second round and last year was a very difficult year and I don't have to tell you that you have the PFF numbers since you work there they weren't good if you search the most sacks given up by any guard in the NFL you will find Ed Ingram I guess the big question that we have is how long do you give it when someone has such a bad first year and didn't have the greatest college numbers and was considered kind of a reach in the draft? But yet also there's a development curve for offensive linemen that I think is very steep and it's fair to give this right guard time. So how would you factor that looking at the numbers? Sure. So I think it's hard to really give an exact time, but I think it helps that he is on a rookie contract,

so it's not like they're just throwing money at him, which makes it easier for them to just wait a little longer. And I think I would at least wait until the end of this year, maybe mid through the season and see how he's performing. And I know he's pretty like solid in terms of run blocking, like pretty average, which is a good sign and not so good at pass blocking. But I think that's what players have to adjust to from college to the NFL.

Like there's just a lot more little things to improve on, like timing, footwork, whatever that may be. And I have seen some info about him saying that in preseason and camp and stuff that he has improved in terms of pass protection. So we'll see if that translates in the game. But yeah, I think his biggest issue is just he's inconsistent, like from game to game. And hopefully he can improve upon that. But I think this is definitely like the critical year for him in terms of improvement and I think like the rest of the offensive line around him is like pretty decent as well so I don't think you can like blame the

rest of the offensive line and say that like they're part of the issue as well um like Dalton Risner visited the Vikings recently and like maybe someone like Andrew Norwell maybe they will want to look into signing someone before the season starts but yeah I think going from year one to year two and I wrote this in my article and my colleague Timo Risk has also written about this that like scheme fit is somewhat important but like a player's talent is truly like what makes the difference um so if they can adapt like their skills to different defenses and adapting to a new team um they can continue to be successful so um I think regardless of how well they performed

in college it really comes down to their skill and being able to like adapt quickly to um a new team so hopefully he'll have enough time i mean he had over a thousand snaps last year so i think he definitely has a lot of experience it's just he has to take everything that he's learned in those games and bring it into this season so hopefully he can improve that that uh is what was a little bit curious when he played in the preseason game and ke O'Connell said, well, he played a lot of football last year, but he still needs more reps. And like, um, that's interesting because Christian Derrissaw didn't need the same reps last year coming out of a training camp. And then of course had a complete breakout season elite season. And so if they were seeing those same things out of the right guard, then they would have had him, uh,

probably standing on the sideline, watching all the other younger players instead of getting those extra reps. Is there anything that we can go back and look to the college numbers? Because one of the things that we're doing here, of course, is questioning going back and questioning the draft pick as one does if it doesn't work out or even show signs of not working out and from the outset i had some questions about that based on some of his college numbers and consensus draft board was that and of course the positional value was that the right move and so we're always sort of going through this process of how second guessy do we want to be so i is there, are there things with players college numbers that they should be or should have been looking for that translate into the NFL? Yeah.

So I think it's just very hard since the level of competition is so different. And obviously like, at least from a PFF perspective, like looking at their grades is like the most important thing I would say. And obviously I think for linemen specifically looking at pressure percentage like allowed and sacks and things like that and obviously he allowed the most sacks of like any guard in the league last year so that's not great I don't know his college numbers off the top of my head but I think those things specifically for linemen are something

that's really important and looking at like his consistency from year to year and like in college would be something that um I would think would be important um and by consistency I mean you know is he performing the same like every year like at a high level or a low level whichever that may be and obviously he probably played against some pretty um like good teams when he was in college. But yeah, it's still hard because even going from college to NFL, like NFL is the best of the best. So a lot different of a sample compared to college. I wouldn't say there's anything specific beyond like grades and maybe pressure percentage that I would look at. And there's a lot of things that we can't quantify in terms of offensive linemen. Like I said, the timing, footwork, speed off the line.

Well, we can quantify speed off the line, but in terms of timing and footwork, those are the details that are really important for linemen to focus on, but not necessarily something we have access to as of yet in terms of data. So I think if we could get access to those things, I think that would be something that would enhance our grades or enhance like what we know about these players um in the future so i think hopefully we can get that data sometime um and i think that would be one of the um like really good predictor going from college to nfl yeah i mean you made a really good point about the consistency in college. And I was just

pulling up Ingram's college stats here on PFF and his grades for pass blocking in 2019 was a 56 and 2020 was a 62. So those are both pretty tough. And then in 2021, it was an 82.6, but he really only had one good year, even though he was starting quite a bit, really only had one good year even though he was starting quite a bit he only had one good year of pass protection and even if you go game by game it's exactly what you were saying where there there's a couple games in here 88 against texas a and m 87 against kansas state but more games in the yellow than you would kind of expect for somebody who is drafted as high as he is as a guard, because usually the standard is really quite high if someone's going to be drafted that high. So I think that when we look back into his history, you have to have a lot

of questions like, where is it that he's supposed to take this next step to, even if he does have some of the raw tools that they identified. Another thing I want to talk with you about that has been a curiosity of mine is the schedule. Because I have this idea in my brain that the Vikings have a tough schedule because they were in first place last year. And when you're in first place, the NFL says, no, you will not return to first place. Somebody else's fan base deserves to have that fun for next year.

But the metrics are all over the place. I mean, every different person you ask, well, this person thinks they have an average schedule. This person thinks it's okay. This person thinks it's hard. And there's a lot of different ways to do it. And this was something that you wrote about. How should we figure it out? And now even I guess we can eyeball it a little bit with

what we know from some of the other teams in training camp that we have a little more information but this is something that i'm very curious about because it could determine whether they do win the nfc north or if they end up a game or two short sure yeah so when i personally looked at strength of schedule i ranked them like 25th. So one is like the easiest. 32 is the hardest. So I ranked them like in a pretty difficult category. And their projected win total, at least according to PFF, is like around eight or nine wins, which is not great compared to last year.

But they do have a pretty difficult schedule. Their last three games are against other NFC North teams which is not going to be that easy I don't think I think the Packers may not be as good this year but you know they always have something in them and then the Lions as well like they're a team but yeah their second game of the season is against the Eagles away and then they play the Chiefs at home three weeks later so I really don't think it'll be easy for them in terms of like recovery and like having to play difficult teams back to back and I think they have some not so difficult teams mixed in there

like I don't think the Bucks will be super solid this year the Panthers is definitely a toss-up with Bryce Young but still I don't think they have the weapons so I think like the middle part of their schedule might be the easier part, like before they're by up until week 13. And then hopefully they'll have a good break after that where they can recover and prepare for these matchups. And hopefully since they'll see the Lions two weeks apart, that they'll have a lot of time to prep. And since they've just seen them, they'll kind of know what to expect,

hopefully. So I think their hardest game will definitely be against the bangles of course but um going up up against eagles and the chiefs within like a three weeks period as well it's not easy so yeah i think i think their schedule is looking pretty difficult this year so let's talk about the turnover of the roster of the Minnesota Vikings, because this is a major, major topic here of how many new players are stepping in to all these opportunities. And this really caught my eye when you studied this about the turnover. And of course, not surprisingly, the Vikings 2022 have some of the most turnover on their roster, just meaning who left, who's coming in and it's

made for a very interesting camp and even preseason games you have to watch to see like how guys are you know coming along in the depth chart and so forth but uh i don't know that it's always the best thing historically to have a ton of roster turnover for projecting your following season what did you find when you studied that sure yeah so i found that there's a pretty strong correlation between win rate and the percentage of players returning um but this also doesn't account for like the strength or skills of players who left or were added as well as strength the schedule so um you have to take that into account as well so it's not perfect um looking specifically at the Vikings, their average return rate from 2020 to 2022 was about 62% which is pretty below average I would say and obviously we know they lost like Adam

Thielen and Eric Kendricks and then now Dalvin Cook. So those are some pretty like big losses um and I also was looking at like Minnesota's 2022 defense so they're um they 24 percent of snaps in 2022 were played by players that were age 30 or older which is pretty like pretty high I would say um I think it was the 10th most in the NFL so they definitely have like a solid defense and And I know they've tried to add some like youth specifically to their defense. So I think having a mix of youth and like veterans is definitely, in my opinion, a solid choice. So at least on defense specifically, I think they'll have enough veteran presence there. But yeah, just having a lot of turnover, in my opinion, I feel like is not a good thing just because you have to get used to new people and generate chemistry with new receivers and things like that.

So I don't think there's any significant evidence that roster turnover means you're going to win less, but I definitely think it impacts a team more than you would expect. So I'm interested to see how some of these new players get integrated into the team and how that really affects the outcome of the games, essentially. And I think there's a tie-in here where they have a new defensive coordinator, all these new players,

and then you face right away Philadelphia. And you've got some tough games right off the bat where if your chemistry isn't super sharp, then you're going to fall behind. And then there's not a lot of time to recover considering the strength of their schedule. And yet from watching camp, Amelia, I feel like Brian Flores has brought a whole new energy to the defense I guess the question would be do we buy that there's nowhere to go but up I mean when you move on from a lot of players who were older but they weren't performing and a defensive coordinator who didn't do a very good job it would sort of stand to reason that it should be better even if I have a lot of major questions across the roster sure yeah no i think that's totally fair there are plenty of factors that we can't account for like having a new defensive coordinator like you mentioned so

i think a lot of it remains to be seen and unfortunately i can't predict everything but um they definitely had some good additions in the offseason and i think the rest of the nfc north um like also had a pretty low rate of return since 2020 I think that was the lowest amongst like all of the conferences or all the divisions and obviously we know the Lions and the Bears had a bunch of turnovers so obviously that affects the Vikings performance as well so I think it'll be interesting to see how their turnover amongst like your direct competitors really impacts how you play one another because um you look at past film to prepare for your future games so if they

have that much turnover um you might not know what to expect as much so i think that will really be the determining factor um if teams can or can't prepare for the new vikings defense or um like new receivers or what have you. So I think that will really be interesting to see if the tournament really affects how teams like play one another. OK, so here's my final question on the Vikings for you. The over under is eight and a half. You mentioned that the PFF data has them right around there.

Give me your thought. Will they be better than that? Don't feel any pressure because it's a vikings related show there's a lot of people who don't think they're going to be any good honestly i think they'll be over eight or like eight and a half wins um at least from like looking at their schedule i feel like they can at least get 10 wins maybe more um and i think like kirk is obviously a solid quarterback like sure people complain because he's he's pretty average but in my opinion that's much better than having a below averaged quarterback like And I think like Kirk is obviously a solid quarterback. Like sure, people complain because he's pretty average.

But in my opinion, that's much better than having a below average quarterback, like for example, like Zach Wilson or someone like that. So I think you could definitely be in a much worse situation. And sure, there are some like parts of the offensive defense that you want to improve. But all these things take time. And I think over the course of the season um there's definitely potential for maybe some upsets and maybe um some of those surprise wins so um i think they'll they'll go over eight and a half wins that's my prediction

i went with 10 to start from what i've seen in camp i think 10 is fair that factors for some regression for the one score games last year, but also that they have an offense that could be good enough to drive them through the season. But I do think that the start is so important for them. And if they fall behind, then, you know, I think it's going to be really hard to make up ground. Well, Amelia, I've really enjoyed reading your work at PFF,

and I appreciate you taking the time. Where can people find you on the interwebs yeah thank you so much for having me this has been great um i always love talking football but yeah you can find me on twitter at amelia probst um that's my main source of content obviously on the pff website as well um you can find me there um yeah feel free to follow me dm me ask me any questions. I'm happy to answer. And that is a P-R-O-B-S-T for those wondering how to spell it. So thanks again, Amelia, and we'll definitely do it again.