Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - How will new coaches around the league impact production. Dalvin Cook is back in the league?

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

Matthew Coller and WGR-550's Mike Schopp talk for the Purple Insider Underdog Fantasy show about Dalvin Cook's return with the Cowboys and which new coaches will impact fantasy production Use this link to sign up https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-purple-insider Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here it is the purple insider fantasy football show with Mike Shope of WGR 550 and the deep end fantasy football podcast what is going on Mike we've got all sorts of madness going on waivers in real life not just fantasy cutdowns I did a tournament where I drafted a guy who got cut by his team. So, yeah, all of it. It's all happening. I can't wait to find out about that. I know I will.

I was excited to hear you tell me that you did a tournament draft. And sometimes when players get cut, that's a good thing. You think they're talented. You have a couple examples. One would be Samaje Pirine in Denver yesterday. Maybe there's some, you know, he's a veteran, not somebody like one of the rookies where you think they might be one injury away from a great opportunity, but late in drafts, serviceable.

You want him to get cut. You don't want him to be stuck in Denver with three other running backs in play. Dallas has always been the team this year where can somebody good just please get to Dallas before we run out of time? And that didn't happen. They signed Dalvin Cook this morning. And there's also in New Orleans, Kendra Miller, who his coach seems to hate, can't get healthy, put on IR.

There's somebody where if he were not injured i was really hoping he would get cut because the coach can't stand him or something some weird thing and then he goes to a better situation and suddenly your 14th round kendra miller picks because camara is old that you've been making also i don't know i'm not speaking for anybody in particular that you've been making for two years actually might not be disastrous. It really is funny about trying to follow and using social media to follow other teams' beat reporters, and you just get flashes of things. And I think I've gotten about seven flashes of Dennis Allen hates Kendri Miller.

And I'm like, who is Kendri Miller? I've never even really heard of this guy, but I follow a couple of saints reporters who I'm friends with. I'm like, man, every time, uh, every off season, the guy's just trashing this guy. Cause he can never get healthy, but you can't make the club in the tub. And that appears to be the case for him. Let's talk about Delvin cook. Does that, uh, strike your fancy from a fantasy football perspective at all? Only in one respect, which is that the Dallas offense

is probably great or at least really good. Like we've talked about the Vikings, of course, in recent weeks. McCarthy goes away. You know, will Addison be suspended? Different features. It all comes back to you want to be in on a Kevin O'Connell passing offense some way or another you have to have the

right draft pick to get Jefferson but then you just want to not be you know frozen out from a team like that Dallas is much the same they throw the ball all the time that surprised everybody last year we were all afraid that they were going to go back in time and they didn't, which meant huge seasons for CeeDee Lamb and even Prescott. So if you have a Dallas running back, that should be a good thing. But A, we don't know if any of them is actually good. I think we know that Cook and Zeke Elliott are not at this point. There's Rico Dowdall, there's Deuce Vaughn, but kind of who are they? And then there's also like,

which one do we want to believe in as like who's going to get the ball? Like Elliott has been the first one drafted because, you know, he'll score touchdowns in a sort of what you would predict would happen with Dallas, their offense is good and they're inside the five-yard line a lot, and Dak doesn't run for touchdowns like he used to, like Josh Allen does in Buffalo. So it's Zeke, and suddenly you fall into the end zone nine times and you pay off your 13th-round draft pick.

I don't know what they want with Cook. They have been the team, as we talked about already, pay off your 13th round draft pick. I don't know what they want with Cook, right? Like they have been the team, as we talked about already, all offseason where you're waiting for something to happen there. Are they really going to just go into the season with the guys they have? And they're not. There's still more that can happen between now and the opener. But I don't know.

I guess you have to, depending on the build and the teams you're trying to stack and have sort of set up for the playoff weeks on underdog, Cook will probably get drafted now once in a while, but it won't feel good. Well, I see from all NFL insiders that Delvin Cook is in great shape and he's been working out. I wouldn't have expected a guy trying to continue

to play in the nfl to have been working out but apparently he has still been doing that uh but he looked very washed at the end of 2022 with the vikings that's why they moved on and then last year a total non-factor it's hard to believe that he's going to go to dallas and then all of a sudden be the delvin Cook from 2021. And before that, that just does not happen with the running back position. I have been drafting Ezekiel Elliott for exactly the reason that you said. I also thought that once upon a time, Adrian Peterson was on the older side here for the Vikings in 2015, and they still ran the heck out of him, even

though it wasn't as efficient as it had been when he was a mega star, he scored a bunch of touchdowns. He led the league in rushing. And even though anybody who looked at analytics, our friend, Aaron shots, I remember talking about, you know, Adrian Peterson season was not actually all that good, even though he racked up all these yards, but they kept giving him the football because of who he was. And I was figuring the same thing would be the case for Ezekiel Elliott. I don't know how many carries Delvin cook is going to steal away, uh, from Ezekiel Elliott. I don't even know if Delvin cook's going to really get on the field because last year he couldn't get on the field much for the Jets. And I did see one reference to a single long run that he had in the playoffs. It was like, okay, that's that we're really, really reaching for something with him. So I don't even know if

he ever gets off the practice squad and onto the field. I I'm looking at it still as pretty much a non-factor for them. Yeah, that that's probably right find someone who loves you as much as Tom Pellicero must love Delvin Cook with for all the hype about the shape he's in and what he can do what he can do for a team same as last year with the Jets and it meant nothing that's Baltimore right where Cook went at the end of the season they had injuries and he would have been a player in the postseason for the Ravens, I guess. But no. As far as, like, we've talked about Elliott before. I told you a couple of weeks ago, that's really one of my weaknesses as a player is I completely just shun a guy like that because I want the Kendra Miller then

or the, you know, Kamani Vidal, whoever it might be. I want the rookie that I think has a better chance. You haven't seen them fail yet. And so I don't draft enough, well, I'll say for this context, enough Elliott because I want those other guys instead. That is a running back, you know, zone in drafts, but I just tend to look away instinctively from players like Elliott. If you drafted Elliott, I think this is a good development

because Cook is not somebody who should really sort of supplant him. I mean, he's not better than Elliott. He's not better than any running back in the NFL anymore almost at this point. What you were scared of was one of those other kind of moves where Khalil Herbert in Chicago gets squeezed out. And he's very impressive. Analytics loves Khalil Herbert, but the Bears maybe just really don't. And he plays a complementary role.

If he ends up not making the roster and goes to Dallas, then you're in trouble. If you drafted Elliott, if everything sort of goes the way it should. But that didn't happen. So if you did draft Elliott or even Rico Dowdle, who became kind of a darling later on in the off season among drafters, because nothing else had happened there, then I think you maybe got away with it. Yeah. The, uh, the Rico Dowdle, I've just become aware of this player. And that sounds like one of the names that you would make up i have to make up right you have to make up a name at least one per one per show but i do know uh rico to be an actual person but it'll be worth keeping an eye on and this kind of transitions into something i wanted to talk

about because i was regularly i get phone calls from XM radio and things like that. Fantasy shows that want to know how many yards exactly Aaron Jones is going to have this year. And I, I'm not sure, but I try to answer their questions. And one thing that comes up constantly is Kevin O'Connell and whether he's going to change his play style. Now that he has Sam Darnold, the quarterback, and Aaron Jones at running back. Is he going to dial it back? Is he going to play more conservatively?

And my consistent answer to this is absolutely no way, no chance on earth that Kevin O'Connell suddenly becomes Mike Shanahan from 1999 and is handing to Terrell Davis over and over again. But I was curious from your perspective, because this is the team I cover, the coach I have watched enough sample to have a really good feeling about Kevin O'Connell's thinking when it comes to this. But about other teams that you look at their schemes or play style or coaches that you think moves the needle in a certain way statistically. I guess I was thinking about the Rams. And if you have a Rams wide receiver, you can always count on whatever Rams wide receiver, Puka Nakua, Cooper Cup, they're going to be open. They're going to catch the ball a lot. They're going to throw a ton with Matthew Stafford. Are there other teams like this and coaches that you think have a certain style that pushes, no matter what is on the roster, pushes it a certain direction?

Well, first of all, it's absolutely relevant. It's definitely not something to ignore when you're building fantasy teams, when you're analyzing all of this, if you think of Tennessee, which, I mean, have they ever been, have the Tennessee Titans ever been exciting or sort of pass happy? I mean, Aaron McNair, I don't know what those stats look like, but no. I mean, they're always a team you sort of just default to, like the Bears. They're very interesting. Both of these teams are very interesting this year because you're so not used to any excitement numbers-wise, fantasy-wise, football-wise at all,

but they're both in position to give you that. Of course the Bears are. I mean, that's an extreme example. The Falcons are because they moved from Arthur Smith, who was the opposite of all of this, I mean, absolutely back in time with their pace and their run-pass ratio, neutral situation stuff, to Zach Robinson and Cousins and the draft capital they've invested in those skilled position players.

I've told you, I don't think the extreme nature of the difference between what they were and what they expect, what I expect them to look like this year with the capital from the draft picks they've invested in those guys, I don't think that's getting enough credit. So I'm like overdrafting the Falcons guys. So that's a team, the Titans could be like that. We expect the Bears to be like that because they just pushed all their chips in. Williams trading for Keenan Allen. Roma Dunzey at nine. That's what that should be. You know, Tennessee, though, is a little bit more under the radar.

And that's Brian Callahan, who comes from Cincinnati. And they went and got Calvin Ridley. They let Derrick Henry go. They were not beholden to him anymore. Pollard, Tajay Spears, of course, Hopkins, if he's healthy, even Traylon Burks, if his career can be saved. That could be a team that I think to most people, surprisingly, would throw the ball more.

So you definitely want to consider that. You have Miami as a team that I think we know exactly who they are and what they want to be. And it worked well enough, but it's a very narrow target distribution with Hill and Waddell. There's a young player there named Malik Washington that's had a good preseason, might end up being relevant as a wide receiver three, or even Jonu Smith as a tight end with good skills when it comes to pass catching. So yeah, whatever situation you're analyzing and thinking about, you absolutely want to consider all of this.

What pace do they play at? Another team, just quickly to add one, interesting this year for this is Seattle. Another one where you just sort of think they're kind of always slow. It's Pete Carroll, run first, and they're annoying in fantasy. But now they have the offensive coordinator from the Washington Huskies. Of course, they have Jackson Smith and Jigba from last year

and Metcalf and Lockett. And it sounds that's a big change there under Mike McDonald as the head coach. But the offensive coordinator we look at, and we saw what Washington looked like in college football, that could be really fun too. So try to ignore what teams have traditionally looked at and look at the right now. And this year is a good year for certain franchises maybe turning the page.

Okay, I can't move on without ranting slightly about Jeff Fisher not throwing the ball more with Steve McNair. McNair went to Baltimore and won the MVP as a thrower, and yet they were still handing off to old Eddie George at three and a half yards per carry. So I'm still frustrated by that. But to your point, the head coach and their chosen type of scheme and play style is really interesting to me when it's somebody new, because I remember when Brandon Staley got hired and he went for a couple of fourth downs and then everybody lost their mind or whatever. And

then he dialed it back because I'm sure their ownership was watching television and assuming that the guy yelling on TV was smarter than their head coach, which tends to happen at times in the NFL. But he changed pretty quickly from being kind of extreme. You almost really never know what a head coach is going to do, even despite where they come from. And Tennessee is a team that I haven't thought about really at all because they're Tennessee, but we'll Levis and how much they decide to throw. He kind of just chucked the ball downfield

because he was scared of getting sacked all the time last year and how that plays into it. I hadn't really considered with Brian Callahan, but they did an excellent job last year when Jake Browning came in. And that was something that really stuck out to me is how coaches can adjust to their talent as well, where when Cincinnati loses Joe Burrow, you think, well, their season's over. I mean, it's Jake Browning, right? And they threw, I think, 50% play action, another 20% screens. So I'm very curious actually there about how they rein in Will Levis from just kind of launching it down

the field all the time now that they've beefed up that roster. I think that becomes one of the more interesting teams to talk about when it comes to trying to project these players for first-year coaches. Which is weird because we've never cared about them. We've never cared about their receivers or even known who they were. Who's Nick Westbrook-Akene and why is he getting seven targets in this game? What happened here? So what do you do? In fantasy, you just sort of put it in the drawer and not even think about it or worry about it. It's Derrick Henry's offense. And now it isn't. And I don't know how good Levis is. Nobody really does, I guess. But what should that organization be all about? Giving him whatever help they can to see if you've got it. Because if you've got it, then you have a decade of success ahead of you. And he was not a first-round pick, but as a second-round pick, that's enough of an investment to think that they should,

and they did, really push in when it comes to him. And, you know, if he throws the ball, maybe he's a version of Darnold where he takes a lot of chances, he takes a lot of sacks, he throws interceptions, but you get big plays. That can work out in fantasy if you know where it's going. I mean, I think because of their age, and I'm sort of on brand with this, like Ridley and Hopkins tend to be avoids for me, so I'd rather draft Adunze or Smith and Jigba in those kind of ranges because there's so much more upside, but maybe not. I mean, those outliers are what make it fun.

When Adrian Peterson happened, the fact that you couldn't know for sure Derrick Henry's career. I've lost money on Derrick Henry, as I've told you, because I always want someone younger. But there are exceptions. There always are. And that's what makes it interesting.

Tiki Barber as well was another guy that went into his 30s. I want to stay on the topic, though, of some new coaches and how they might impact their players, because I think that that's fascinating to go into the season unknown a little bit. Washington and their offense, Cliff Kingsbury, I was not very impressed with what happened with Arizona. It seemed like the beginning of the year,

they would have a lot of great ideas, but then they would just keep doing the same thing. And the second half of the season, it would fade. And even Atlanta, now Zach Robinson, he's in my book. There's some Zach Robinson bias here of thinking he's going to work out because a lot of the guys from Sean McVay's tree which he has come up in uh they work out just like the Mike Shope tree at WGR 550 everybody has success uh if they worked with you and uh and how about Carolina too with Dave Canales there I think he's getting a lot of credit but they've also beefed up their offensive line which should help Bryce Young a bit. I mean, which one of these new coaches do you think could have the most impact on their players from where they were last year?

Well, you mentioned a couple of clear possibilities for this question. We've talked about the Falcons already, that one, Raheem Morris. You know, a couple of these are not, it's not the head coach we're focused on. It's the offensive coordinator, which I think is right to do and that's absolutely Atlanta Tennessee as we've talked about also could be this um Carolina is probably not to be ignored in drafts when it happens is always really late there's no Panther that goes before Jonathan Brooks, who we know will miss the first four games, but he still goes well before anybody else on that team. In underdog tournament drafts, you can end up with a Mike Evans

or a Chris Godwin. The Bucs and Panthers play Week 17. Then you want a piece of Carolina just in case you make it to the finals, and that's sometimes Adam Thielen or Leggett or even Bryce Young. Chuba Hubbard is another one. I don't tend to draft him because I think by the important weeks, they'll have phased him out, but can help you depending on if you've drafted sort of in a risky way early on.

Maybe you need those points in the early weeks. And Bryce Young did not have a terrible preseason. He showed well in Buffalo in the early weeks. So, and Bryce Young did not have a terrible preseason. He showed well in Buffalo in the third game last Saturday. And, you know, he was a great prospect. Canales made Geno Smith work and he made Baker Mayfield work. So this was, I think, a good idea. And there are another team like the Titans where I think they have made, they have the right thought process when it comes to how they want to try to salvage an iffy quarterback. Washington, I'm with you on Kingsbury.

It just didn't really impress. And you can't name too many of their guys at this point. McLaurin is fine. There are more exciting picks, but he's good. I don't know if he's great, but he's good. And then you have, I mean, Eckler and even Zach Ertz, they traded a first round pick from three years ago in Jahan Dotson. It really is a crapshoot in terms of their skill position players. They're a tougher team to build with in fantasy. They play the Falcons in Week 17. So, again, like if you've drafted London or Pitts or whoever from the –

B. John Robinson, of course, is a first-round pick. Then you might dabble in Washington. That tends to be, for me, Luke McCaffrey, a third-day pick this year, I think, maybe even second day, but not the greatest prospect. Christian McCaffrey's brother, who could end up having a role in Washington, but these are just dart throws. Yeah. I mean, Keith Gretzky is going to take the Sabres to the next level. Just like, no, I actually did this. Okay. I don't want to be this guy liked him at the senior bowl. I mean, it's one of those where, you know, you watch the game and

somebody stands out to you and then becomes a draft pick and you follow them forever. On the AFC side, Jim Harbaugh, if he's not arrested for whatever crimes he committed in college football, he will be coaching the Chargers this year. Are you a, are you a lad McConkie guy? Cause I'm kind of a Ladd-McConkie guy. Yes. I liked him as an idea for the Bills before that second round started, and they went with Keon Coleman instead. But okay, anything can work. I mean, Coleman is interesting too. But McConkie, a better prospect than McCaffrey with more draft capital and with, with almost said San Diego with LA, there's just not a lot that you know is going to work.

They're interesting because Harbaugh and Greg Roman, because of their track records, give you every reason to think they're going to be a running team. What they've done with the roster is kind of gut it. So it's rebuilding time. Harbaugh with his reputation. There's no pressure to win there. There shouldn't be this year.

I mean, that should be a team that is kind of near the bottom. And so you want to look at what these coaches have tended to be about. All of the Harbaugh teams in San Francisco were great running teams. Then you have Justin Herbert there who can throw for 5,000 yards in the right situation. I think what we've had in fantasy this year is a good debate about what odds you give that to happen. Is it possible that Harbaugh and Roman will break form and no matter who the receivers are,

there's enough volume there to keep Justin Herbert as a fantasy relevant. I tend to think not, and he's got an injury already to start. So yeah, I think where I end up with LA is they're going to run the ball. They have Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins from Baltimore. Dobbins off several major leg injuries, and Edwards is on the older side,

although he's been efficient. The rookie is Kamani Vidal. That's also a day three pick, not somebody that throughout training camp and preseason was always being touted. In fact, there was one report that caught everybody's attention a couple of weeks ago that he was playing behind other younger guys, Isaiah Spiller and Jarrett Patterson. But by the end of it, that changed. They cut Spiller. So Vidal, running back-wise, and then Palmer, I guess, Josh Palmer and McConkie, you know, you want to have some,

in my opinion, some shares of those guys. And Vidal was always so cheap, especially lately when people were down on him, it seemed, that I've got a lot of him just hiding on fantasy rosters throw Quinton Johnston bubble screens he'll catch you know I never even thought to mention his name and I should have but what what's cool about him I don't want to give up yet he don't want to give up yet. He had a monster game for TCU against Michigan. And Quinton Johnston hopefuls want to think that Harbaugh can still see his game for TCU in the national playoffs in his memory when he's going to sleep at night and will do everything to make Johnston good. Just, I mean, Matthew, last year and then this preseason could not get out of his own way. So it's kind of scary for him. Some guys, it doesn't make any sense. Why it doesn't work out, why they're not the same

player that they are in the NFL, and there's a million different reasons. And I'm sure that their reporters understand it better than me, but Quinn Johnston was awesome in college. He was so much fun to watch. He was a beast. You can get him the football and he can make plays. He always kind of had lead hands a little bit, but I thought just do something Debo Samuel, this man.

And it hasn't even really been that at all. Probably a lesson in if there's remember when everyone is looking for the next Taysom Hill like there probably just probably just isn't one what one more team that's had a big change in the offseason and I'm curious how you think things will be affected and maybe cut down day also could impact this but with New England and Drake May they seem terrified to put Drake May behind such a horrible offensive line. I respect that because you're just asking him to potentially get hurt, especially if

he's not a guy that gets rid of the football quickly and is always trying to make plays. Those guys get injured when they have bad offensive lines. I still think he's going to be in pretty fast because Jacoby Brissett will get injured. As I mean, they're playing him in the preseason game. For what reason? I have no idea if he was going to start already and then he's getting smacked to the ground. You're like, okay, that doesn't seem like a good plan. But what are we to make of gestures at New England? Because there's a lot of people, they have jerseys, they play positions. But I just don't, like when we're trying to do drafts and I see a New England guy come up, I'm like, no, I can't do that.

Yeah. They are kind of a little bit sneaky cool at the end of drafts if you're trying to stack. And they play the Chargers in week 17, which isn't great, but it's Buffalo in 16 playoff weeks. Maybe you get lucky there and they're just so cheap. Drake May, you can end drafts or have been able to. I mean, we're almost to Week 1 now, but with May, Pop Douglas, Javon Baker, Polk, even Antonio Gibson, who I think is younger than Ramondre Stevenson.

I heard that recently, and that's a good one. I think Stevenson's pretty good, and he goes much earlier. But sometimes in drafts, it gets late, and you don't have QB2. You just don't have, depending on if you're drafting on one of the ends, and just you didn't get it. And so New England is kind of a cool fallback when that happens. I don't really know what they should do because I don't know how bad, bad is when it comes to the offensive line.

Like if they're one of these teams, like the giants last year where just every play is, it looks like a jailbreak. Then there's no right answer. You're going to play Brissette who takes hits and he's going to be hurt. And then what do you do then Play the other kid they drafted? Is it Milton this year in the draft? They drafted two quarterbacks.

So you can't just never play Drake May. I like the player a lot. I thought he should have been the number two overall pick. And so I'd be optimistic for the franchise, but they might be too far away from getting anything out of this season, in which case there's just no right answer. But when you're drafting, you're drafting for upside. When you're trying to win Best Ball Mania 5 underdog tournaments,

you want to be taking chances on guys where you think the talent is there, the situation could come open. We want the late season weeks. He probably should be on the field if healthy by december so yeah he gets drafted uh in pretty much every draft not early but kind of a fallback and an interesting bet if you end up there pop douglas is the fake guy right that's a short stop from the chicago white socks for 1922. No chances. I thought by your facial reaction that you thought Milton was. No, I know. I know Joe Milton. Yeah, I know him. He could

throw it over the mountains. And I look forward to his transition to tight end eventually like Felipe Franks or something like that or Logan Thomas. Well, it's it, yeah, it's just, I think that you try to avoid playing Drake May as long as you can. I've seen it 2016 Vikings offensive line, and there's a level. If you can be the 20th best offensive line, you're probably okay. But if you're the last offensive line in the NFL, it's going to destroy everything that you want to do. And why do that to Drake may now when you can't actually win anything. So I've been toying around with quite a bit, these pickums on underdog fantasy. And if I haven't mentioned it yet,

this here show is presented by underdog fantasy, the easiest place to play fantasy sports and the fastest growing fantasy app in the industry. You want to sign up with the promo code purple to claim your special pick and first time deposit offer up to a thousand dollars in bonus cash. You must be 18 or older terms apply concerned with your play call one 800 gambler or visit ncpgambling.org. So I've been messing around with these uh pickums they got numbers where you go

higher or lower and uh you just end up down a rabbit hole with all of these so i pulled 10 that were interesting to me several vikings i did not prep you on this at all on purpose because i just want you to give snap reactions i want rapid fire whether you would go higher or lower on these numbers for 10 different nfl players are you ready you don't look you don't look as intense as you need to be i'm not ready but i'll do it i work here uh i don't i will tell you up front i don't know like if you say 800 and a half yards receiving or rushing for somebody i don't know from memory like what how good a number that is i just know like sort of how they get drafted and so i'll do my best this is not where i spend a lot of my time but i'm happy to happy to play

well everybody is listening for your opinion on this on the edge of their seats so don't screw it up okay here we go as long as i've been able to say that i'm not really good i don't expect to be good at it i'm happy to i'm happy to play nobody's good at it uh this is this is where if i was your producer i would crank up the nfl films music below but i'm not putting that much effort into editing this. So Sam Darnold at higher or lower, 3,475 and a half yards, 3,475 for Mr. Sam Darnold, higher or lower. Lower, I should say lower,

only because I know I've said, and we've kind of agreed, like the Vikings are going to throw the ball. I still think there's a bad season in the range of outcomes and he comes out. It won't be for McCarthy, but if he doesn't really hit it and they have a super tough schedule, right? The first six, seven weeks before the bye week, I think there could be a change there. So I'd like the idea of him throwing a lot and having some success, but I think too much of a chance that by Thanksgiving,

they're on to somebody different. I would also probably go lower, even though I think that he'll go higher. That sounds weird. But because there's too many potholes there, and one of them is that he holds onto the ball a lot and gets injured throughout his career. I don't think he started more than maybe 13 games in a season which could keep him in that ballpark how about justin jefferson higher or lower 94 and a half receptions can you hear the music by the way i what oh is that the nfl yeah i'll do that i'll

be your producer for a minute. Again, a little bit. If you don't mind it. I don't know how well it's coming through the show, but it's a good idea. 94.5, Jefferson? Yeah. Over.

Higher. You have Addison. Higher. Sorry. Higher. I don't speak this language. This thing has music to it. What is this system

I use here? Let's see what it sounds like. Huge. There we go. That's cool. Good. Huge investment by the organization even if it isn't Darnold. It's still Justin Jefferson. I think people have sounded a little bit too conservative on him this offseason.

I'll go higher. I'm buying higher as well. I think that Sam Darnold or Nick Mullins is going to throw to this man over and over and over again. Now, this adds some juice to it. This definitely adds some juice to it. Aaron Jones, 750 and a half yards. Rushing?

Rushing. Yeah, rushing and a half yards. Rushing? Rushing. Yeah, rushing. Yep. Lower. I think they'll be two pass happy for that. He's older. He's got to be able to stay on the field. So some injury risk.

It's a little bit higher than average. So I'll say under. And then maybe Ty Chandler gets there, Matt. I know you've talked about sort of missed assignments and maybe a little bit of pessimism about him. But if they have that bad season, then I'm sorry to your audience if that actually happens. But if they do, then I think you see going to get the football a lot and I can't predict health. It's just always a thing that, you know, there are guys who are injured all the time and then they're not. And so I'm just going to say that he's going to get the ball a ton and

they might, well, they're going to sign someone. I don't know who they're going to sign and maybe they could be a little more split up between Ty Chandler and running back X, who maybe by the time you're listening has already signed with the Vikings. But Aaron Jones is really dang good. And I think they're going to run that until it's over. Here's another little twist, though, to Aaron Jones, which would be if they are bad, they could trade him at the deadline. And then whatever team he

plays for is also going to run Aaronaron jones and probably be in the playoff race so i'm going to go higher with that one how about caleb williams 23 and a half passing touchdowns higher or lower on caleb williams 23 and a half passing touchdowns higher i think it's all about what they want to be you've've got multiple really good weapons, probably. DJ Moore is elite. I heard Amon Ross St. Brown asked by Mina Kimes on her podcast, who's the most underrated receiver in the league? And he went in on DJ Moore for that.

And of course, Odunze is one of these guys who could have been called generational if he didn't have two other guys this year in the draft to go above him. Even the running backs could catch touchdown passes. It's sort of cognitive dissonance because it's the chicago bears so could they really be they've never in your lifetime had or anybody's had a good passing offense but you know mostly there was a little bit with cutler but um i'm in on williams higher i like this one the most so far folks u.s cellular noticed that the way we use our phones has gotten ironic. We try to put our phones down for dinner, but the menu is on a QR code.

That's ironic. We hit like on social media posts that we don't actually like. Ironic. Which is why US Cellular created UsMode to help us reconnect with each other and use our phones less ironically a phone company wanting people to use their phones less ironic let's find us again with us mode from us cellular visit us cellular.com slash built for us to get started they're going to throw a ton uh they don't have a tremendous running game and they're going to if he throws 30 touchdowns and 18 picks or something but they're just going to throw a lot

and they'll never come out right yes 100 so no even if he's completing 56 of his passes or something they're going to keep throwing with Caleb Williams and they've got enough receivers to catch a lot of touchdowns. I agree. I would go higher on that. Now I got to an either or here, Christian Watson, would you go higher than 750 and a half yards or Jaden Reed at higher than 775? So it's one or the other, one or the other, which would you prefer? If I said, you have to go higher on one of these, would you go Watson 750 or would you go read 775? That's tough. I don't really care about the difference in the numbers, but it must mean something. Wow. I guess I'd want to say read, but I do like Watson, and everybody hopes that his hamstring

problems go away. I mean, at this point, so far, it seems like that might be true. Green Bay's really tough. You don't know where they're going to turn. So many good receivers, including Wicks and Romeo Dobbs as well, but Reed was pretty steady among all of that last year. Really showed well. I will go with him. I guess that's betting on a Watson injury because the upside for Watson is the moon. I mean, if he doesn't get hurt and really is their number one guy in an offseason where we can't seem to figure out who we expect that to be, then that's high end. I think he's a great draft pick in best balls, like a wide receiver four.

He's not too expensive, but I'll go read for the reasons I gave you. Yeah. And I thought that last year, Jordan Love developed some real trust with Jaden Reed, which makes me lean a little bit toward his side on this. Speaking of Jordan Love, his number is extremely high for touchdowns.

There aren't too many dudes who throw for 30-plus touchdowns, and his is at 29-and-a-half. So would you go higher or lower on Jordan Love? If he throws for more than 30 touchdowns, that's a pretty darn good year for him. That's an MVP candidate. I mean, possibly. This is one where I don't really know my footing

in terms of what the number signifies, like where would that rank in the NFL so not knowing that I guess I want to say under because as you sort of laid it out the number is pretty high there aren't too many guys in the 30s and I mean Josh Jacobs is set up beautifully there and if he has a year like two years ago with the Raiders, you know, he's more explosive than, um, that would take away from love. And I don't know,

is he a little bit of a runner? Maybe not really. I'm high on the Packers. So this one's tough. Uh, where would that rank in the league? 30, which is all you need.

So I don't really have a strong lean either way, but I guess I'll say under. Only four gentlemen through for 30 plus last year it was only golf purdy love and uh dak prescott but i loved it they are gonna yeah he's gonna throw the ball uh a lot in the red zone i think they like to do that that that's important to know i mean the first half last year was pretty messy and then it just took off and in the playoffs which wouldn't count for his total he was tremendous so um i'm sort of now i'm more on the other side knowing that okay a couple more real quick stefan digs 974 and a half yards under i wouldn't bet the house on it

but i would be betting against his age and the fact that Collins and Dell, I think, are both really good. So it sounds like so far with Houston, it's been Diggs in two receiver sets. That's not great for Dell, but I think Dell is almost undeniable. And so because Diggs is up there in years now and they have other options and maybe they're so good that they're sort of winning easily, like that seems possible with Houston, that would lead me toward under. I would go lower also. Lower, lower.

Sorry, I'm terrible at this. Yeah, that's okay. So I would go lower also because I think they're just going to distribute the ball a lot. They throw to their tight end. They're going to distribute the ball a lot. Like they throw to their tight end. They're going to throw to Joe Mixon. They're going to throw like this is CJ Stroud is a quarterback who goes where the reads take him to go and not somebody who just pumps the football to one player. So I think that that's going to be tough for digs to go that high over a thousand yards

with so many other good players. Okay. Two more real quick. Uh, Keon Coleman there in your hometown, 725 and a half yards for Keon Coleman. Lower. I don't know if I like,

uh, boy, Alan's going to get his right. So it's going to be somebody. I think where Coleman can matter the most here this year is touchdowns and that that's kind of Kincaid too they're gonna have to make up passing touchdowns with so many of them having left from last season if they're gonna if they're gonna get there but I just haven't heard enough positives on the timing stuff with him and Allen so far. I mean, there's going

to be big play potential with him. That's kind of why you drafted him, contested catches and that he's kind of a Gabe Davis replacement. I would kind of bet on him coming in really close to that number, but I'll say under because I'll say lower because I just have not felt it when it comes to the Bills passing game and I think there's just too much uncertainty I mean they would love it if Coleman were the kind of player as a rookie didn't love him as a prospect though either I'll go lower you know what else too Matt by the way I think in these games whether you're betting or you're talking about pick them on underdog, lower, right, is to me like kind of always plus EV because it's just more fun to bet hires. And so, you know, game bets, anything.

I think there's always a slight edge to the lower side. I agree with you because, I mean, a guy can tweak an ankle and be out six weeks and you hit the lower. That's the biggest part for me is you really have to bet on the guy staying healthy with Keon Coleman. This is an unscientific way to think about this, but just from my experience covering training camps, if somebody who is young is popping in training camp, everyone will be talking about it i mean just because that's an exciting thing for fans and they're going to be asking every day what's going on and people will be reporting and they'll be interviewing the guy and they'll be talking

to the coaches because you're just looking for anything worthy be interesting and the fact worthy is a great example the fact that i just haven't heard a lot about Coleman, haven't seen that buzz all the time makes me think that it just hasn't been all that exciting in camp. And that usually is a good indicator of what someone's going to do during the season. So I would go lower here as well. Last one is Jane Daniels. I'm very interested in Jane Daniels, uh, 3,150 and a half yards passing and five hundred and twenty five and a half rushing I feel like the rushing one should be pretty easy to say on the higher side only

only thirty one hundred yards on the passing side do you have to get both right or just one where you could go you know do them independently I just figured I'd put both because they were kind of interesting and you can do whatever you like with them. Yeah, I'm all in on the rushing higher. Like you said, 525 seems really conservative from what he's been as a college player, what he looks like, you know, probably how they want to play. But 3100 yards is a rookie in Washington, especially if, you know, if he's Lamar Jackson as a rookie, then that's an easy lower. So that's what I would do. And you know, that comparison is very lofty, but it's been made. He's a Heisman winner and his running highlights are, are elite, but does a cliff Kingsbury offense, the horizontal raid get in as a rookie to over 3,150 yards?

I'll say no. Yeah, that was another one where I was pulling up the, wait, I had my numbers here. Like how many guys went over 3,100? Like how hard would this be? And the answer is most people. Even Justin Herbert, who got hurt last year, went over 3,100. Russell Wilson had 3,070 yards and just a miserable season. Bryce Young,

2,800 yards last year. I feel like Daniels can get there just because it's low. My only concern with him, and maybe we talk too much about whether guys will get hurt, but he hangs on to the football and he did this a lot as a college player. And I don't think runners get hurt more than non-runners as you've seen from josh allen he hasn't gotten hurt a lot in his career he runs all the time and runs over people but daniels is a little more on the spindly side

than someone like josh allen so i don't know i think i i think i would still go higher on both of these because just like caleb williams as you said they're not taking him out week after week this guy's just going to keep playing and eventually he'll get there with 17 games my friend davis maddock put it once this summer on daniels watching his college rushing highlights cool but why does every play end in what looks like a ski accident? I just love that. So, yeah, the talent's there. Nate Tice called him Wiley E. Coyote. So that would also be a concern.

Okay, so I'm going to hang on to my tournament draft so we can have a little more time with it because we got into the interesting discussion about the new coaches. But I just want to tell you about a preview that with the calamity that was my running back situation. It's a 12 team, so that means I was diving deep, but I ended up in my backfield with Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Zach Moss, Dante Foreman, who got cut, and Damon Pierce.

Not great, Bob. No, I mean, who's the youngest? I got to get you to some of the rookies and sort of a little bit more gamble. Did you take Jim Swartho? That's not a real person. That's right. That's not a real person. I had to get one in. So good that you

didn't do that. Yeah, I mean, the fact, well, maybe Henry. I just, like I've told you, I feel a lot better when I'm taking riskier shots. You know, Cincinnati, I'd rather have Chase Brown. With Dallas, I might rather have Dowdle. Just guys that, they get hyped. But there's just more of an upside there for me. Doesn't have to be right, you know.

Henry could have a huge year. So could other, others of those guys. You said Singletary too? Pierce. Pierce. Yeah. Cam Akers may have passed Damian Pierce in Houston,

which like I wouldn't have done that either, but Pierce is kind of a puzzle for me because I thought he was a really interesting player out of Florida that was just trapped in a terrible situation. And then was a kind of a, kind of a cool rookie running over people, but then he just got buried and I haven't heard anything about him this summer.

He made the team, but that's the only thing I know. So what is, so this is a tournament. Yeah, this is a, the marathon is so this is a tournament. Yeah. This is a, the marathon is what this one is called. Okay.

That's one where you don't have to care about the playoff weeks. Oh, okay. I think, I think that I'm not in that one because I wasn't sort of as like instinctively there when it came to this and there's too many other ones, but that one I think is not where you advance 15 16 17 but it's really like a 1 to 17 season i'm not positive of that but i think so okay well

i put a lot of investment into wide receivers and to my credit i drafted damian pierce 184th so maybe i could get some leeway but here's going to be my plan for the next draft for my next draft is I'm going to do an all unproven draft. I will not pick anybody in my entire draft that I feel like is a veteran that I can more easily project because I keep leaning that way and all the drafts that I do. And I'm going to, I'm going to try,

try something different. So that'll be for, for next week and we'll go over it. But as always, super fun to talk with you, Mike. And I can't wait because next week we can actually talk about the week one football contests and what they mean to fantasy football. So I'm super excited about that. Again, the Purple Insider Fantasy Football Show.

And make sure you check out the Deep End Fantasy Football Show, which is your podcast. And use that promo code, PURPLE, at Underdog Fantasy. It helps me. So anyway, Mike, great stuff. We'll talk again soon. Thanks, Matt.