Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Ian Hartitz tries to predict Kyler Murray's Vikings stat line

Episode Date: March 16, 2026

Matthew Coller talks with Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz about how Kyler Murray fits with the Minnesota Vikings and how high we should predict the ceiling will be on his 2026 performance. What does it mean for JJ McCarthy? Also is the Vikings running back situation ripe for a draft pick? Or are Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason enough? How about Jonah Coleman? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar, here, the show presented by FanDul. And on the show today, Ian Hartett's from Fantasy Life. All right, welcome back to the show, Ian. Well, you're wearing all your Ohio State stuff on the day that Justin Fields gets traded to the Kansas City Chiefs. We don't have to break that one down. But that's where we get in the off season. How crazy is it that the first day of free agency was like the wildest day of our lives? and then after that, it's like now we're on to Justin Fields' traits.

And it's like the first three hours or so of free agency, especially, man. I was thrown out that, you know, at first time I saw it was that Game of Thrones, just everyone hated kind of last season. So it's like that meme of the horse drawing. That's so eloquently perfect to start. And then it just fades off and something a four-year-old would do by the end. So that's kind of how it goes, though. Obviously, only, you know, a handful guys we truly care about.

So everyone pretty much on the draft now. So we'll see what happens with the field, still hoping to kind of get that first Ohio State quarterback in, you know, decades to actually do something at the NFL level. We got a shout out there too. But yeah, we'll see what happens. Good, good a landing spot for him to maybe get stuff going again. We've seen weird things happen, Matthew. Just chiefs, then we'll go to the Vikings, and then it'll be fully a full circle moment.

The, uh, yeah, the carousel of quarterbacks just in general has been quite interesting, where none of the quarterbacks were all that beloved or favorable for any situation. But if we were going to find one that was the, best fit and the best landing spot, I think we could pretty easily say that's Kyler Murray with the Minnesota Vikings. So as I try to cover Kyler Murray from all angles, here's what I want to know. Like the best in the world at projecting players is people like yourself at Fantasy Life. How will you go about your early projections for what you expect from Kyler Murray's

and Minnesota Viking? I think he'll put up, you know, the fantasy numbers that we're looking for. in our neck of the woods. I understand. Some of you guys just real-life football fans, that is very cool. But I maintain, if we just called fantasy points, like impact points, we'd have a much better, you know, just relationship from fantasy to real life. We're still talking to ours and touchdowns and the same stuff.

But the one big difference maker we do see in fantasy that I think can separate us from more real-life analysis. It's Russian quarterbacks and it's kind of like receiving heavy running backs. Those are the two kind of, I guess, leaderboards where it starts to get thrown off. And Kyler, as much as we can talk about is passing. we won't a second. That dude can still run. And that would be the encouraging part. He's even coming back from that ACL at the end of, I believe it was what, the 2020s season. Came back in 2024, didn't look any worse for the wear. And then even last year, man, before he had the

shoulder injury, 35 rushing yards per game, his yards per scramble is right up there in Mahomes and Dart. Like, this dude still can't move. So that would be the one thing. And I think when we do talk about quarterbacks overall, maybe we don't even give enough credit to actually what they can do on the ground. You've seen the graphics. It's just, you know, completely ignore sometimes everything they're bringing to the table on the ground game. So that would be, I guess, for guys like Kyler, even guys like Fields and guys like Jail and Hertz, like even if their worst case outcome, I think, comes to fruition, like, they're still going to give you a badass run game.

And obviously, what Kyle has seen higher highs to pass her as well. How do we factor what Kyler has been surrounded by with the Arizona Cardinals versus what he's been surrounded by with the Minnesota Vikings? because usually until last year, Justin Jefferson made every quarterback into a fantasy king and actually just the king in general. And the quarterback rating of any player throwing the football to Justin Jefferson before last year was 109, which would put you in the MVP race.

Now, of course, that did not work out so well with J.J. McCarthy in his first year as a starter and was really central to why they would go out and get, Kyler Murray because even if you like a lot about J.J. McCarthy, if he and Justin Jefferson can't get on the same page, then that's what the whole offense is built for. So compare that with what he's had in Arizona because Ian, I've been arguing on the show that no one has watched Kyler Murray play football in quite some time because the Cardinals have, you mentioned the ACL thing and the Cardinals have really gone down since they had DeAndre Hopkins there. But when you're looking at something like that, like, how do you weigh what you would project his stats and his performance

to be in Minnesota versus what was going on in the desert? Again, last year, pretty damning, not just for McCarthy, but also, I think for the idea that KOC is, you know, like the premier Cube whisper. I mean, it wasn't just darn old and cousins. It was like Nick freaking Mullen's coming out there, man, and still averaging eight yards for attempt. So again, a little bit of a step back. But again, having watched those games and just, the thing that kills me on McCarthy sometimes,

man is like, yeah, that's technically a drop. I hit the dude in the hands, but can we not throw every single pass 120 miles per hour? So just that aside, Vikings major upgrade any way you can look at it in terms of supporting cast. I have tried to quantify this over the years. I call it a supporting cast rating. I take PFF team grades in receiving, rushing, run blocking, pass blocking, everything except passing to try to give an idea of the offensive environment.

Last five years, rolling average Vikings have actually ranked ninth in the NFL. Ninth, worse, however, is the Arizona Cardinals. And honestly, I think they could, you could argue they're even worse than that because, again, like any stat, not perfect. What Kyler does for a run game is showing up in those grades, even though we're trying to, again, look at an offense independent of the quarterback. So I think Kyler coming is really going to help a Vikings run game that, let's face it, has been mediocre really ever since. We had Prime Dalvin Cook doing his thing there. So that's going to be a plus. In terms of what we do see from the passing game, can't say enough about obviously Jettos and Jordan Addison being an upgrade as well over the wide receivers in Arizona.

because, again, don't blame people, as you were saying, for not exactly catching every minute of Cardinals footballs over the years. But as much as I have all this Ohio State propaganda going on to my office, it has been so hurtful and damning to watch Marvin Harrison Jr. play football over these past two years, man. Very, very rough film, particularly in the first five games of last year. So, again, Kyle has his own fault, and we can talk about, you know, his inability to see over the middle of the field. And just last year was really the worst you've ever seen him as a passer.

But you would like to think if we can just get the average version of Kyle and Murray the best offense of his career, I would like to think above average results around the table. So I had Arizona Cardinals ESPN reporter on to talk about, you know, Kyler and where he's at. And one of the questions that I asked him was what is the deal with Marvin Harrison Jr. Because not only are there drops, but there's also times where Kyler throws a football and Marvin Harrison goes like, oh, was I supposed to be over there? And I mean, okay, every once in a while that happens. but in NFL games, you don't see it happen multiple times, which happened with him.

And I mean, I don't know who to blame there because I don't know the play call, but it wasn't happening with Trey McBride. That's for sure. He was always in the right spot with Kyle and Murray. And it certainly didn't happen with DeAndre Hopkins. Did we just overestimate Marvin Harrison, Jr. and what he was going to be? And why do you feel like it has not clicked there for him?

I think that archetype or receiver isn't quite the same high-end alpha as it was even 10 years ago. I mean, I think that's why we're seeing, you know, the Jackson Smith and Jigbas, the Amon Rae St. Browns of the world, like actually starting to stand out and be the true number ones. Because with Mars profile coming out of Ohio State, the one concerning factor that, you know, I do think some people highlighted, but it was just the lack of anything after the catch. And it was the lack of just as much as obviously the sign of a, you know, great. Marv doesn't bring that super high end. You don't have that elite physical trait.

You can really hang your hat on here, okay? I mean, look, he's a big dude. We saw last year. Look how Rip Marvin Harrison Jr. is because that was what we needed, Matthew. We watched him as a rookie and said, if we could just add 10 pounds of muscle, that be it. But for a guy who's 6, 3, 220, he just does not play physical at all at the catch point. You don't see him breaking tackles. And obviously, you know, he didn't run the 40-yard dash.

And anyone is independent of that, you watch him, he's not really a burner out there as well. So when you add all that together and you're not. even on the same page as your quarterback, man. It's just really tough to find something to be overly throwed at. So with someone like Marv, I just feel like it's so trying to find success with that archetype, the margin for error is so small. It's not someone like JSN just creating 10 yards of separation off the line, Amon Ross St. Brown making a ton happen after the catch.

Kyler had his own false there, but it's like, how many times are we throwing a slot fade to a covered Marvin Harrison, Jr., and just hoping we can put the ball in the perfect spot? So again, with Marv, I just think he's a little bit more limited than maybe we gave him credit for put up huge numbers at Ohio State. Can't take that away for them. But, you know, let's face it. We've seen a lot of guys put up those big numbers here over the years. Unfortunately, not going

great the next level so far from Mark. You know what it looks like to me because I've been watching a lot of Arizona Cardinals tape. And it really looks to me similar to as if someone gave Laquan Treadwell a wide receiver one. Because there's a lot of the same things.

Like the lack of a top end speed, the lack of separation, a little bit of concentration and playbook issues or timing issues with the quarterback and someone who is really super strong and immensely talented in college, but it's just a very different game. And separation is king in the NFL, especially today with a lot of the routes being underneath. I mean, you mentioned the slot fade, but I'm sure if we drew everybody's route chart today when the average depth of target is the lowest that it's ever been, there's a lot of underneath type of stuff.

And when those slot phase you mentioned, I'm glad you brought it up because there's so many times where Kyler just sort of puts the ball up and it's like, go get it, pal. And the guy who's got to go get it now is the best in the world that going to get it, which is Justin Jefferson.

What do we even do with that difference? I mean, because I feel like people just assume because of the name and he was drafted high that Marvin Harrison Jr. is a, oh, well, he had a number one receiver. He truly did not. I just, I mean, I know that's your Ohio State guy. but it was bad.

It was just not a wide receiver one at all. I actually was watching Trey McBride going, I think they're going to use Justin Jefferson more like him than they are because 70% of the time, here's a stat you could take with you to Fantasy Life. 70% of the time, Trey McBride either lined up as an outside wide receiver or a slot wide receiver with Kyler Murray last year.

I mean, I think that that is a little bit more of a test case of like, can he pump the ball to his number one target? Yeah, and as much as everyone was, oh, look at everything Jacobi's done for McBride and these guys, like McBride was still putting up top two, three numbers of the position with Kylo Murray. So, again, even if we didn't have his number one receiver

and Marr putting up the numbers we were looking for, to your point, Tram McBride really was the number one past game option there, and he was still going with Kyler. So obviously you can go back to clock, even longer and you can find the Newk Hopkins years where he was doing big things with Kyler as well. But I guess it comes down to Matthew, and the question now going to Minnesota is like,

how much of the slot fades being the main, version of the offense and kind of the way for them to create explosive plays. Yeah, I left a ton to be desired for Marv, but let's face it, with Kyler, as much as we want to say the size thing doesn't matter, there are a lot of plays too, and I'm sure you saw on where Marv's running a dig, and it's like, okay, that ball needs to get out right now. And I just don't think Kyler can necessarily see over the middle of the field because he's 5'9 and the guys in front of him are 6'4. So again, as much as we try to look past this sometimes, and we will see exceptions to the

rule, ideally you do still want your quarterback to be the 6-5 dude. you can see over the line scrimmage. We've known that for like 50 plus years at this point. So I will say, though, when we start hearing rumors and reports that all, the Vikings basically acts the middle of the field offense last year, because they didn't trust McCarthy to kind of get through those reads anyway, that kind of lends itself to, again, a better idea. So I would just say maybe the difference between how they want to run the offense

with McCarthy and Kyler isn't as extreme as you would almost kind of think because we have that similar limitation for both. But I would just think, man, and I'm curious in your thoughts here, like, is this, do you anticipate this even being a little bit of a competition because the only way I can see it going like kind of south, I guess, for Kyler would be if they're not playing to his strengths early on in camp. And then maybe all of a sudden McCarthy is like a little bit better at the traditional acts of quarterbacking, even though once we're actually playing 11 or 11 tackle football, like that's where Kyle shines. Yeah. So I want to say first about, you know, the throwing to the middle of the field. There's definitely times where he passes up something there where I don't think he feels super confident in the window.

and also it was really fascinating when he was throwing at like three quarter speed or even half speed, I felt like his accuracy was amazing. But when he would really ramp it up and try to fit into a tight window, I thought that it flew on him quite a bit in his recent tape,

not early in his career where I thought he was very good at it. And I guess I've wondered if he was, if there was a foot thing and the ACL, like if there's something that he's making up for that is not really allowing him to do that, which was, you know, that's where the middle of the feet, that you have to attack.

That said, real quick, his past the line of scrimmage, middle of the field percentage by your old friends of PFF was very similar to Sam Darnold in 2004. It's like 2% off. So it's not like this offense has to have someone parked. And if you check down to your tight end for five yards, like, oh, you attack the middle of the field. Anyway.

So as far as the competition goes, I do not see any competition whatsoever here. And the reason is because Kyler Murray would have had at least one other option, I think, in Pittsburgh, and possibly other options in this entire conversation. But if the Atlanta Falc had said, no, you have to compete with Michael Penix because we drafted him versus the Vikings where the situation is really, really rough last year. And they were 28th in passing EPA last year, which is, as you said, unfathomable with this offense and the receivers and Kevin O'Connell. I don't see it as any sort of competition at all. I don't think Kyler agrees to come here if there was going to be a competition. I also think when you look at the two players and where they're at in their careers, what they've accomplished, what their skill sets are, there's really no discussion to be had

because when you go back through quarterback's first 10 starts who have been drafted in the range of J.J. McCarthy, you really struggle to find any of them that were starters for a long time after they perform like this. I had the list in my newsletter of guys with adjusted net yards per attempt. As low, think about this. So since 2010, there's been 110 quarterbacks who threw at least 200 passes in their first 10 starts. We did the exact same study without talking to each other. Okay.

Well, you know exactly where it's going to land then. He was 94th, 94th out of 110. And it's just, it's really hard to justify to go back and say, well, yes, I believe if J.J. McCarthy had three more years of starting that it would eventually come. click, but people just can't wait around for that. Let me try throwing some numbers at you and see what you think. Just in my mind what I would project for Kyler Murray if he were able to start an entire season for the Minnesota Vikings.

I would go, you can give me an over under on this where I'm going to set this line. I would go 3,850 yards passing, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 500 and 50 yards rushing. I think the passing yards line is near perfect. Good job by you. I could say the passing touchdown could have a little bit of an increase. Jordan Madison. I maintain a lot of people in our neck of the woods,

they always try to say like, oh, you know, yards is the biggest predictor touchdowns, or they almost dismiss it as being fluky. Like I do think there is a special skill to scoring touchdowns. The field gets condensed. Everyone's got more attention on you and Jordan Addison. Just ludicrous company with his first two years. So I think we can get over 24.

passing touchdowns. The rushing, we've never exactly seen KOC have a quarterback. He can fully deploy, but I don't know why he wouldn't feel like, you know, he could tap into that. So I would just be curious because Kyler can obviously scramble with the best of him at how much of the design stuff do we get. Can we get up to 550? So I might go under there. Interceptions, I would also go under 12 because, again, with Kyler, he's gotten a little bit worse. I've taken sacks over the years. But that can be a little bit, you know, volatile from a year to year basis. So looking at Kyler, as you mentioned before, not exactly making a habit of trusting these tight windows and throwing downfield.

So, yeah, it could be infuriating at times when you see those guys on the replay later, breaking wide open. But I do think he's generally trying to limit the mistake. So I go under there on the interceptions. But yeah, man, and I will say if you did try to paint just the one positive potential scenario for McCarthy because I did that same study you did, but going back to 2000, the only guys, McCarthy was 116 out of 151, the only two guys who were worse and wound up being really good were Matthew Stafford, but playing on horrendous Lions teams.

And I think we can agree McCarthy doesn't quite have the physical tools of Stafford. Alex Smith, though, was the other one. And that was someone who I honestly thought was like a reasonable comp to McCarthy coming out. But at the same time, like, we saw what happened in San Francisco. They didn't really trust them for the first four or five years. And then he was very much a late bloomer. So I, it's just, I don't want to fully give up on a 23-year-old with like 10 or 11

starts to his names. And he did start playing better at the end of the year against some really bad defenses. I get it. But from the Viking standpoint, you're not having paid collar or anything. Why would you not take this opportunity to go ahead and, you know, try to improve your quarterback room? Well, I totally agree that if there was time for J.J. McCarthy and if it was a different world, then you could in a vacuum and a bubble. It's a better idea to give a young quarterback time. And there's a lot of different little asterisks with J.J. McCarthy, the injury and the circumstances.

And last year, when he comes in, they have offensive. line injuries and Jordan Addison suspended for the first couple games and they were hoping that Adam Thielen could fill the gap and you know, as we know, that did not exactly work out. But going back to the Kyler Murray projection and Jordan Addison, I mean, that's certainly a factor of Jordan Addison, the red zone. I think they can definitely perform better in the red zone than they did with Arizona. And that's another thing that I go back to when I watch the tape where I'm like, I think KOC can do better than this. And I certainly think that, you know,

Drew Petting and Jonathan Gannon tried their best there. But there's just more to work with for Kyla Murray. So how about this? On Fan duel, there is an over under already set for the Vikings at eight and a half wins. If Kyler Murray were to start 17 games, would you go with the over or the under on wins? I think I'll go over again, man.

I remember talking to you around this time last year's a little bit later in the off season, but one of after kind of going through, I do a yearly kind of team preview series. And I think the Vikings were seven and a half last year. And just my rationale for really loving that over was like, even if McCarthy just sucks, I just thought the defense and some of the surrounding offensive talent will be enough to really get them there. So certainly, you know, maybe sweat it there at the end of the season and everything. But that would kind of be where I'd fall back to once again. I just think Brian Flores is going to probably get four.

or five wins a year almost, where independent of what the offense does, like the opposing quarterback's head's going to be in a freaking pretzel all game, and they did their thing there. And then you're just asking Justin Jefferson, and obviously, again, one of the league's better supporting cast would be great enough to uplift the rest. So I've been a Kyler defender for a long, long time. And obviously, we've come on a, you know, rough years here recently. But just, again, we saw, I believe, the floor of what this Vikings offense can look like last year. And even if it could be, you know, a different version. I honestly, I think Kyler, playing as bad as JJ like still produces a better real life offense because of the Russian attack.

Do you think that there is something interesting to the trend of quarterbacks who have been moved on from with their other teams? Because we're starting to add this up when people are like, well, you know, his team got rid of and like, well, somebody got rid of the Super Bowl champion as well. And not only that, but, you know, Baker Mayfield showing up in Tampa Bay and doing what he was able to do. Even you could throw Jared Gough into this mix as somebody who the Los Angeles Rams didn't think was good enough. And then he goes there and leads top offenses. I mean, at $1.3 million, I mean, he's going to make less than their long snappers. So of course,

it's like one of the best deals you could ever find. But why do you think that is? Because I feel like we went a really long time with this basically never happening. If you were a bust, you just sort of disappeared into the ether. And then they draft. somebody else. And then now we have seen a lot more quarterback movement, a lot more quarterback shuffling and certain guys finding their homes with other teams. First of all, you're exactly right with this. Didn't used to happen. I remember I wrote an article in like 2017. I actually went through every single one of these quarterbacks who went to another team was the grass greener. And the answer was almost always a resounding no. But yeah, to your

point, we're almost getting one of these guys a year. So shout to Ben Solick over at ESPN. He touched on this subject a little bit last year as well. And I really like one of the takeaways he had, which was like, if you do want to try to find, you know, this next year is Donald or Baker or whoever, like you want someone with the sort of high-end physical tools to have that ceiling. And that's why, you know, again, I would maybe be keeping a candle on for Justin Fields because you see the flashes of it, but it's just like, you know, when you turn your podcast on 1.5 speed, like that's how we need Justin Fields to operate, you know, with this processing in the pocket. Obviously, easier said than done. But that would give me optimism for Kyle Murray, because, again, we

just from the day that dude's been playing football, you know, most decorated high school quarterback ever, number one overall pick. Achieve a lot at the NFL level. We know the armed talent. We know the rushing ability and everything he can do. I would have high hopes that he could actually be the next great reclamation project. Meanwhile, for J.J. McCarthy, it's like, man, we still can't throw a touch pass.

And I tried to, you know, even as a Buckeye, just super fan, like it would be so easy for me to call McCarthy a fraud. Oh, they never had him throw in Michigan and stuff. I last on the idea where it's like, all right, why would they need to throw a ton when they had a dominant ground game and a great defense and the way Harbaugh does it? And like, this was a former five-star. Went to IMG and won that, you know, a title of senior years. So I thought there was enough going on that maybe he could grow into his body more and do stuff.

And the verdict still out and everything. But like when you have someone like McCarthy, you have these quarterbacks where they're now forced to deal with, again, finally tuned athletic machines, these professional defenders. And you don't have that one just true calling card trait. That's where it gets really tough to, again, just expect things all of a sudden work out. in a new spot. And time matters so much to this position is, you know, one of the things about quarterbacks is just like human beings, like growing and changing and learning and

developing. Some do and some don't. There was a podcast that I saw where Christian Hakenberg was saying, you know, the Jets just didn't develop me enough. I was like, look, man, no offense, bro, but the Jets could have spent all day, every day developing you. and that wasn't going to happen. Like, you just couldn't throw the ball well enough to be in the NFL.

And with J.J. McCarthy, that's what we really don't know. Like, can you throw the ball consistently enough? And when you think about the margins, I like to think of this through offensive linemen, but the same is true for quarterbacks is if you're an offensive lineman and you give up one pressure a game, you're the best offensive linemen in the league. If you give up two, you're pretty good, but you're not that great. If you give up three, you're basically a backup. And if you give up four, you play in the USFL.

I mean, that's how the margins are, right? And the same thing with this where it's like with J.J. McCarthy, if you complete 65% of your passes, you're a pretty darn good quarterback. That's one per game or two per game that gets you to 57%. But that's unacceptable. Like, you just cannot have that. And that's how thin the margins are. So it has to be sharper. It has to be more detailed. And that just takes a lot of time. I also think that the reason why these quarterbacks bounce around is because, well, rookie quarterback contract is certainly one thing, but also teams are building on these timelines. With the salary cap and with 32 teams, you're sort of always rising and falling unless you

have Josh Allen or if you're the Ravens or if you're the Kansas City Chiefs, like those teams are all in every single year. But most teams are not. Most teams have a quarterback that can be blown in the wind one way or the other and they have to build on timeline. So even if you're the Arizona Cardinals, that's come up, well, why would they let him go and pay for him to leave because they're on a different timeline. They can't compete with San Francisco and the Rams and Seattle.

I mean, I think that they would prefer to just have a good quarterback. Back in the day, teams would just ride it out with that same quarterback if he was good enough. And that's why you'd see in win-loss records, a guy went four and 12, then 11 and 5 or whatever. But now it's like if you're not ready to win now, why have a quarterback that's that caliber? And in defense of coaches and GMs, like we've never seen their turnover at a higher rate either. So like I think Vikings fans from where I can tell, I mean, you obviously have your finger on the pulse more. But I think they're okay giving KOC kind of a, oh, you know, we've seen what you can do. Last year wasn't good.

But we can kind of put more blame on JJ McCarthy. Like you have a team that just won 14 games in 2024, man. Like you cannot realistically go back with a giant flag under center and just go ahead and say, oh, yeah, I hope things change here. you know, just be patient everyone. Because no, you just saw freaking Darnold go and win that Super Bowl. So, yeah, the new supporting cast argument is the other big piece of the puzzle. Like, I think there's a reason why we saw Darnold not exactly leave the Jets and go. The Panthers and find all the success.

Baker had to jump around a little bit as well. But, you know, again, another reason to hopefully be optimistic here about Kyler. So, Donald, Gino, Baker, Kyler, Murray, next, Matthew, who says no? Let me ask you about the backfield because the supporting cast. is going to matter a lot. And I don't think, you know, when I'm projecting 3,800 yards, I'm not projecting 40,800 yards.

I'm not projecting that this offense is all Kyler Murray. And sometimes that gets misconstrued of me liking the idea for $1.3 million and thinking he could win 11 games with, oh, well, he's just like this elite quarterback who's the best in the league. That's not the case. The back field, they bring back Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason there. Do you think that they should add to that backfield? I think it would be nice to have maybe more a receiving threat with with Shannon Jones, obviously, at the certain points of his career, he's been one of the better receiving backs out there.

So maybe he can just go ahead and tap into that more. And just that was another thing, man, just having watched J.J. McCarthy's dropbacks, he just wasn't getting to the checkdown. I think got a reasonable time to really set those guys up for success. So maybe I think it's a good enough one-two punch and everything. I do think, you know, if they wanted to add like a day three dude, we got that way force kid, Demand Claybourne, like that could be kind of a fun pick. got a little bit of that Lance Dunbar to him, you know, when you just truly need a guy in the hurry up offense. But I think just kind of leaning on Jordan Mason and seeing more where you can get there, I will say, as someone who drafted a lot of Jordan Mason, I was more underwhelmed

watching him during the season, but then I look back at some of the stats and I'm like, you know what, dang, I guess he actually was pretty good last year. So, you know, you got the 4.8 yards for carry. But next gen stats, six best running backs in rushing yards over expected per carry. his success rate, which is like basically, you know, raw yards per carry is cool, but third and one, if you pick up two yards, that's still a successful play. So it does a good job incorporating the short yard stuff. Fifth, best mark in the league there.

So again, maybe just being more willing to ride Jordan Mason, particularly, you know, in those short yard situations, could bring out some more. Otherwise, just maybe try and get a little bit more of explosive juice. So I was surprised to see Aaron Jones, and honestly, T.J. Hawkinson back as well, but, you know, they got the deal's restructured, so why not? it's a sensitive subject about the third and ones because for some reason

Kevin O'Connell just early in the season would not a man just give it to Jordan Mason like this is what action eight step drop back let's get weird every time and they were truly during his time and this is something he's got to fix like the worst team in the NFL at third or fourth and one and a lot of times it was because he would go pass and think he was tricking the other team but if you do it it all the time. You're not tricking the other team. It's going to be part of their preparation. And with Jordan Mason, I think that it's not flashy. I think that he will get on a play where you think that it's kind of going to be get shut down. He'll get four or five yards out

of it. And if he breaks a big one, it's like 15 yards. I mean, it's not like, then you mentioned Claiborne, who's such an interesting player. I don't know why Dree Archer came to mind for me. Remember the disappearing Dree Archer? But when I watch a play, like this underside, guy who just is lightning. I'm sure there's 30 other players, but I'm madden. I always used to get Dree Archer. But that's what they really need. They need some jolt.

Although I have noticed that maybe you're a Jonah Coleman guy online from some of your tweets. I have become a little bit of a Jonah Coleman guy because here's my theory. I love explosiveness. I love burst and all that. But I also think explosiveness in the NFL can be following your blocks correctly. and breaking tackles and getting an extra couple of yards because it's not often that like on Madden, you hand it off and the guy just runs away from everybody

because of the speed of the National Football League. So I think intelligence can also be a skill and balance can also be a skill that gets you extra yards, not just pure burst and speed. Yeah, man, because it's one of those things. And that's another reason why putting so much stock in the 40-yard dashes just doesn't make sense. like how many times does that really happen during the course of any given game joth and taylor led

the nflb with three rush attempts of 50 plus yards last season he's incredible obviously that's great i hope i have a running bad that can take one the distance you know any any given time but just realistically i think you're right you're probably better served over the guy who's picking up an extra two or three you know tough gritty yards versus the guy who's giving you a lot of nothing for large portions of the game and then maybe bust them on later that's why again guys as much as can't walker is the man like i'm hesitant to call the seattle see i'm hesitant to call the Seattle, Seattle, Oxford, Clint Kubiak, you know, idiots for keeping Zach Charbonne involved because they're just kind of different running backs. But yeah, going back to Jonah Coleman, man, been trying to study this, you know, running back draft class was going through the Notre Dame guys first.

And honestly, I was surprised to see Coleman leap Jeremiah Love and what I was looking at because I want to try to quantify, you know, the little things out there that maybe us fancy nerds don't pay enough attention to, but obviously matter in the game. So career drop rate, pressure rate allows a pass blocker and then your fumble percentage. So ball security, job security, and then how are you as a pass blocker? Jonah Coleman with those ranks, man, second, third, and fourth among the, you know, key parties in this draft class came out the number one score overall. So Jeremiah Love actually did have the best pass protection pressure rate allowed. He came in a second. But yeah, very impressive stuff from Jonah Coleman, man. And just when I'm trying to find, you know, hopefully under the radar-esque running back, he sounds like he'll be going day two.

So hardly, you know, a complete no name or anything. But like you want to see someone that at a minimum has that three-down ability where not saying they're going to get the chance to, you know, go to Washington commander's backfield where everything's wide open. forum, for example, but just someone where, hey, guy gets injured here, a guy gets, you know, injured there. Can they step in and be that three down bell cow if needed? And I think Coleman checks those boxes, man. I think so too. And the more that I've been watching him, now, I saw some reports that he had had an injury that may have slowed him down a little bit. But the more I've been watching him, there was a clip that was going around of him stopping Sunny Stiles, which I know one highlight doesn't make, you know, a player. But then, okay, well, you got my attention. Well, because in this

offense for the Vikings, they ask a lot of their running backs in past protection. And in recent years, they've had their fullback, CJ Hamm, back there as their pass protector on third down because it's so valuable to them. And when guys couldn't do it, Jordan Mason or Ty Chandler, they just ended up, you know, not getting to play on those downs because they don't usually send those guys downfield. So I also think if you're talking about fantasy, it does matter because it's a signal of who's going to play. If coaches cannot trust a guy in pass pro, they're not going to play them

because the difference between 4.5 yards and 4.2 yards is not that much for a lot of these running backs. I wanted to ask you also about around the NFL, the most impactful moves on the offensive side of the ball. About time, we're talking about Jalen Naylor, man. Let's get it.

Well, okay, all right. You got a Jalen Naylor take? Not really. I was just surprised to see how much money he got. He did some good things. it was crazy for like, and I know you guys saw it, that five or six week stretch where it was like, when J.J. McCarthy was going to throw his best three passes of the game, it just seemed like Nailor was on the other end of each and every one.

So again, you know, never really had great numbers or anything. But if you were going to have a player who didn't have great numbers, you want to try to tell that story for why. And certainly with all the other, you know, past catching talent in Minnesota makes sense. So Raiders, Titans as well, they threw a big bag of Wondale Robinson. Like, that's the thing with some of these signings. Like you do say, like, oh, 35 million for Nays.

$70 million for Wondale. Yes, just independent of context. Those do sound a bit crazy. But these were teams with a ton of cap space. They needed some level professionalism at wide receivers. So I think I got better from that standpoint. I think that with Naylor, the teams watching the tape probably saw a lot more good stuff than just the receptions, which is a good way to do it.

I mean, you're trying to project, well, what's he going to be if he's our number two, which is kind of what he is right now with the Raiders. And he could play all the people. positions. He could be outside. He could be inside. He's filled in for Jefferson before. He's filled in for Addison before. He's a very willing blocker. Uh, you know, he could go downfield. He could create separation. I just think the opportunity wasn't there. And then when you talk about, not just being number three, but an offense where Hawkinson, Jefferson and Addison and Aaron Jones, their production all went down in the passing game last year. Uh, I think that, you know,

the Raiders may have ended up getting a steal with Jalen Naylor, somebody else's development project who hasn't done his best stuff yet. Maybe, I mean, that's also because he's a guy that we've seen progress and you really like when you see that, you know, a guy who's drafted late and, you know, it's a good story. But I was thinking about the, you know, the Mike Evans of the, you know, moves of the world. Some of the more impactful ones for teams that matter. Because a lot, that was, I mean, that was another. You talk about like a wind out of the sales for free agency.

It's like, oh, the Jets signed another player. good for them good for those jets but uh mike evans to san francisco is probably the most interesting in terms of big name combined with big team yeah and honestly i was happy to kind of be on the right wavelength with this you know please guys don't look back at everything i've said you'll find plenty of wrong stuff as well but just when evans came out kind of with his little checklist of criteria and he was like i want a team that's going to be contending for super bowls i want a great play caller i want you know a great quarterback and i want to have the opportunity for a lot of targets It just always made sense for 49ers to kind of be that team.

Obviously, it seems like Brandon Ayok and I think Joanne Jennings, although he's kind of that last wide receiver out there in Free Agency. I think they're gone. That does leave really only rookie parasol as serious target competition, particularly with George Kittle probably missing early season time without Achilles. So obviously with Mike Evans, just need him to stay healthy. And with all the, you know, electrical substation stuff going on in San Francisco, we do got to have our concerns there.

But just it's one of those things where in Fantasyland right now, like we're ranking them, I think I'm the highest on team fantasy life. Ivan's a wide receiver 21. Other people are a little bit more like 27, 28. But he is one of these guys where, yes, he's older. Yes, we do need to somewhat have a system for realizing older players are more likely than this time.

But we can be sitting here in like week two and just going, oh, yeah, Mike Evans is Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy's clear cut number one target. And now we're ranking them inside the top 10. So again, have the red flags. But just in terms of the offensive environment, man, could not have asked for a better landing spot for Mike Evans. Yeah, no, I totally agree. And there, yeah, I don't know what the deal is with the substation.

I tend to think that's probably not maybe as impactful as the way that the team practices in training camp. And I was laughing because I saw Troy Aikman say that not enough hard practices is the reason that guys miss games. And I was like, I don't know that that's right. I think that the teams like the Lions and the 49ers who are known to practice really hard and tackle in practice. usually tend to have more of those injuries than the teams that don't. But also, as you've said for a very long time, it's a lot of random stuff, like a lot of random stuff when it comes to injuries in the NFL.

Was there a move in this free agency that made your face turn green? And you were just like, why? Why would you do this to yourself? Why would you do this as a team? I'll tell you mine, you can think for a second. Yeah. I don't really understand Daniel Jones at $44 million per year to the Indianapolis Colts.

I feel like if you just played him on the transition tag, nobody is coming in with an offer that's going to go over what the 36 million. And maybe it's better for their cap right away for the first year. But I look at last year, he had more turnover worthy plays than he did big time throws. The start of their season, they had a very easy schedule that he lit up with some of the best rushing performance that you're going to see. And then now Michael Pittman is gone. and he started to fade even before he got hurt. And I was pretty convinced that that team was going to fall off regardless because he was, you know, kind of hitting the edge there.

So that's, that's mine. That's the, I don't really understand. I know why you brought it back, but I don't understand a multi-year commitment to somebody who had half a good season there. It seemed like they were bidding against themselves too. That was the thing. I was confused like who the other.

And I thought they were kind of seeing that with the transition tag and not putting the franchise tag on initially, but then for them to still get, that deal done. It didn't make a ton of sense. Speaking of, again, a few stats that paying a nice picture for Kyler, I think what you're talking about in Daniel Jones really, you know, being more of a product of his environment than necessarily all of a sudden an elite quarterback.

Not saying PFF grades are gospel, guys, but Kyle and PFF, PFF, Pastor Great than Daniel Jones last season for whatever that is worse. So I would say it's a little bit lesser extent, but the one that just kind of stuck out to me and I was just, huh, okay, Kate Otten getting three years 30 million to return to Tampa Bay. just feel like there's this lineage of dirt average tight ends and they have a couple good games and they just find their way in the 10 million plus per year kind of like the dalton shultz contract of the world if you will so nothing that's odd and like when they have had these games were evans gobbwin and abuka like are all down he puts up some numbers but i don't know man tevin bay like i wasn't

exactly watching them last year and just being like oh yeah let's get kate on you know more involved make sure he's a staple of this franchise for years to come thought they maybe could to put that money elsewhere, but again, being a little bit nitpicky there. I will say, man, other than the Daniel Jones one, like, you look at the huge deals, some of them are underwhelming, but it's also just market price these days. So I will say on the surface, man, like, Alec Pierce getting $114 million, Romeo Dobbs getting $68 million, Juan Dale Robinson, $7.8 million. Like, I don't really consider any of those guys legit, number one wide receivers,

and Patriots fans have gotten annoyed. But, like, if we had to go around the league, Matthew, and just say, like, all right, every team's number one wide receiver, you know, where are we ranking them? Like obviously Justin Jefferson is going to be first or second. Pierce, Dobbs, I guess Wondale's number one, Tennessee, you can say Ridley. Like those three guys, all due respect, they're coming in our bottom eight. I don't think it's really close. Yeah.

I mean, with Pierce, somehow he became Randy Moss during this process. It was like, I was watching every team's fan base be like, you know, we really need Alec Pierce. Well, I mean, okay. I'm not saying he's not. a good wide receiver, but I think that he's the number three wide receiver on the Minnesota Vikings. So I'm not sure that that's really worth the amount of money that they gave him. There are so many teams, Ian, that you're just, are you ascending? Are you declining?

What are you really trying to be in this life? It is a little bit annoying, sorry, just like, because we can talk about what Pierce is on the field and we all did that in pre-free agency. There's a ton of stuff to like. I mean, at his ability, every, if he did have Pierce in Minnesota, could you imagine how great he'd be as a little qualified number three? Same thing with Los Angeles Rams. But when we have the salary cap, then we got to start talking about these guys relative to the money.

That's the only annoying part, man. I'm a very sad, a Cleveland Guardians fan. It's just like every single year we get into the playoffs. And then all of a sudden, I see these Yankees or the, you know, Dodgers lineup. And it's like, oh, their eight hitter, like was an MVP three years ago. But they don't complain about that. They're just like, oh, yeah, we have more money than God. we're going to spend it, obviously a different sport,

but just, you know, an annoying kind of ramification of always having to consider the salary cap, if you will. Ian Hartett's fantasy life, you are the best, sir. Always great to get together with you, try to figure out what these football players are going to do. We can definitely catch up again very soon. And the best of luck to your Ohio State gentleman in the draft, which will be pretty much every other draft pick.

It seems like after last year, although I guess I shouldn't. have should I have my eyes on Julian saying for the future he's going to be like a number one pick right I saw I saw there was like discourse on the internet of saying because I thought we'd all sort of agreed that he's just like a really really good quarterback and

will eventually be drafted high but I don't know what's going on there that was one I try to not get in these just pissing battles back and forth you know on Twitter I try to I would like to think I had better things to do but just when I see people saying like oh yeah carnal Tate's production and wasn't what we wanted to be

because the quarterback play was rough. I guess the quarterback play for every single team outside of Indiana was rough than last year, man. So look, say it as a pro prospect, like, yeah, you watch him, dude doesn't exactly have these big time physical tools. Like his superpower is accuracy and he can be a quick processor.

And when he's under pressure, he has his problems there. But like to say a dude that just, again, I watched every snap he took, but like you can go to the numbers, man. Second highest, I think, raw completion percentage ever. PFF also gives like, extra accuracy grades where it's like did it hit him in stride like where is the ball placement he just had their most accuracy's never i understand not everyone's a college football fan and they just they get into

the NFL draft and they start watching these players their first time february march before you guys go from watching you know josh allen and sam darnald all of a sudden through these 19 year old kids playing for the first time just think about giving them a little bit of leeway man because julian saying is the opposite of a freaking rough quarterback prospect to watch so excited to see what he can do i don't think he's going to be in number one overall contention because he doesn't quite have those again just high-end five-star physical tools. But still growing up and everything. So we'll see what happens there. Last point here, Ohio State, you said it.

There's going to be four guys probably going into top ten, which is ridiculous. And everyone goes, oh, my God, how did that team not win? I don't know, man. We're also going to see two Miami offensive line or one offensive lineman, one defensive lineman. Also going into top ten, Messador is not too far behind. So Indiana, Miami, Ohio State, three incredible teams. Unfortunately, my Buckeyes were, you know, third on that list last. It is really hard for me when it comes to, because I watch college football like everybody else from my couch while I'm, you know, writing an article or doing chores or whatever it might be on every Saturday.

But when I sit down to try to watch these guys that the Vikings might be targeting, it is so different from the NFL. And this is why when everyone asked like, how did this guy bust? How did this guy? Marvin Harrison Jr. How is he not worked out? It's a different sport. It's so wildly different. And I've never been good at. looking at guys on college tape, which is just like YouTube, here's every play that they had and figuring out,

hey, how does this really translate to the NFL? I've never been great at it. But anyway, Ian, thank you so much for the breakdown for the great football conversation. And we will absolutely do it again very soon,

my friend. Thank you, sir.