Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Is a Vikings trade for a second-round pick realistic?

Episode Date: April 21, 2021

Matthew Coller and Sam Ekstrom are getting into the stretch run before the draft by examining every angle, including whether the Vikings can actually pick up the second-round pick that they lost in the Ngakoue trade. Sam thinks he has spotted the perfect team. Also what does it mean that there's fewer prospects overall in this draft and who are the past picks that we were right and wrong about. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get Coors Light in the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart, Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, presented by Scout Logistics and Symbol, your stock market for sports. Oh, Sam Ekstrom, the stock Market for Sports will be fluctuating wildly as we head into the NFL draft. How are you feeling? Yeah, I'm starting to feel the impending countdown.

I think we're T-minus eight days, nine days. It's right around the corner. So I'm expecting there to be some red herrings thrown out here by some well-placed sources in the next few days. I think we're going to get an idea of where these quarterbacks are going to fall, probably a little more solidified. And we'll start to piece that board together. But, I mean, I keep running the Sims. I know you do, too.

And there's no telling who's going to be there at 14. So, like, picks four through 14 are through 14 gonna get pretty interesting i really want to and i don't know if i'll take the time like do i care about it enough to take the time to put together a bunch of the reports that came out pre-draft and then see which ones actually came to fruition because how funny is it that justin fields now is is the Vegas favorite to go number three, and all those, hey, it's going to be Mac Jones reports have gone completely quiet, and nothing has changed. No one has played a football game.

Justin Fields had a second pro day, and so did Trey Lance. Did that swing it? The 49ers traded up before that. I don't think that they would have traded up if they didn't know, or at least who they think they want one of three, because I mean, obviously Trevor Lawrence is going to go number one. So it's really one of two that they're going to get. So I'm sure that they traded up with the intent to draft Zach Wilson, if he doesn't go to the jets or Justin Fields or Trey Lance, whichever one they like more at three. and they knew that the minute they traded up and nothing else has changed since then also one of my favorites Sam is you know this team would be interested in a trade down like oh whom whom are you hearing

that from I wonder could it be a team waving a giant flag that they're taking offers I mean it's just some of this stuff is just so funny, like to play the game as we go through it. And I wouldn't have it any other way. I wouldn't tell Ian Rappaport to stop reporting these things because it makes it so much more fun and hilarious. Yeah, apparently my harebrained hot take that Zach Wilson's not going number two didn't move the meter in Vegas, I guess. I don't know why that didn't get more of a bump for me. But, you know, I have a healthy respect for the Sharks that run Las Vegas. They usually know more than we do.

They know more about the odds than the alleged football experts and sources, I would argue, sometimes. Or at least they know the trends. They know how things usually end up. So I definitely would trust those uh those lines for the number three pick and i can't wait to hear rick spielman i assume he's going to talk at some point next week and give his annual pre-draft presser where he does a couple things number one he he waves the like you know sets off the flares hey we're taking calls we're taking

calls come one come all call the spielman dock of phones that i have set up in the war room and let's negotiate because i'm trader rick and i can't resist uh number two he will say something along the lines of we are not doing x and then he will go and do x in the draft that that is you can set your clock by it every year, Tuesday before draft, Rick Spielman does two things. And he puts his, he puts his, what is it? His shoes on first and then his pants. Is that what? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That was recorded. That's the third thing. That's, that's concerning. I think that's alarming behavior for any. It really is. I mean, if, if you were hanging out with a buddy

of yours and you were like just having a discussion about superstitions like uh do you not like walk under ladders or whatever or uh go outside on friday the 13th and they said my superstition is putting on my shoes first before my pants okay man i don't know if we can hang out anymore it's an odd one uh but to your point yeah i don't know if there's going to be a pre-draft press conference or not. Like there usually is, like you said, and then we try to read between the lines. And sometimes he does tell us the truth. I mean, back when they had lost Adrian Peterson, he was saying, well, this running back draft is really incredible. And then they end up taking Delvin Cook um this year is different for me Sam because I don't know what they're doing like in years past we would walk out of the draft press conference with Spielman and just by reading tea leaves anyway I think we'd have a really good idea it's probably going to be this guy or that guy it's going to be this position and then we'll see I remember we were all taken a little bit by surprise when Mike Hughes was picked but then the very next pick was the one that we all

thought it was going to be with the offensive lineman we had a really good idea that it was going to be a tight end when they took Irv Smith Jr. we had a really good idea it was going to be an offensive lineman whether I remember debating the will it be Andre Dillard or will it be Garrett Bradbury as we led up to that draft. But with this one, the more I talk about it, the more I talk myself in circles of like, will it be a defensive lineman? Will it be an offensive lineman? Will it actually be best player available? What about Mac Jones? And just, you know, it's sort of funny that we still don't feel like we have this great grasp, even though the mock drafters are very confident that it's offensive

or defensive line. You bring up the 2018 draft, and I'm starting to feel some similarities to that one. And on the record, I have been very much in favor of going offensive line in the first round. So this is a little bit two-faced on my part because I'm starting to think that they could go the path of go defense in round one and address the offensive line in round three, or if they can trade up maybe round two, but I don't think a trade up is realistic. I just, I really like the day two tackle class uh we obviously released the the purple insider draft guide we broke down over 50 prospects there are a ton of like day two day three tackles jackson carman brady christiansen liam eichenberg um cosme probably he would have to drop like you would have to get into the second

round to get cosme but um you know tevin jen Rattins there are just a lot of like really good kind of like second third round maybe even late first round tackle options inevitably one of them's going to drop like there's going to be a run on tackles and somebody's going to filter through and get left behind and that could be the Vikings play here. They could kind of make the surprise pick in round one, which was Mike Hughes, and then do the traditional pick in round whatever to get the tackle. That feels to me like maybe a realistic and justifiable option. So if you walk away from round one without your offensive lineman, I don't think I'll be as steamed about it as I might have been talking two weeks ago. Like having studied it a little harder, it feels more feasible to me.

And if they wait until the third, you could still have not only a tackle who drops and you have two third-round picks as of right now. We'll see how many that ends up being. Or if they do get back into the second, which we're going to discuss, your piece on the website. But the third round will have guards also, and they could be looking at it and saying this thing is so deep that Wyatt Davis might be there, or you could have Quinn Miners who could be there. I mean, there's a number of different guys who are interior offensive linemen. Trey Smith is another one who i've looked at from tennessee

who are very likely to be there because the tackle group is so thick that people are going to draft the heck out of these tackles and the guards are going to get left behind a little bit and still be hanging around in the third round so that would be the argument for it if they're looking at how the board could work out to say all right we, we should draft our corner, which would drive everyone nuts, I know, our wide receiver, which would, you know, we would hold a parade. Yeah, right. There would be a parade from us in Richfield is where I'm holding it at my basketball court. It would be a wide receiver three party. We'll have, right?

So, but, you know, you could do that or you could do that. Obviously, the defensive end is a big one that you could trade down and so forth. So it leaves you a lot of options with the fact that this is a deep offensive line class. So I guess I would just say, and I've gotten so many notes from people like this, if they don't draft Christian Derrissaw, I am just giving away my season tickets for life and climbing to the tallest building in Minneapolis and jumping off. And they're like, OK, OK, OK, hold on. Like, take a deep breath because day two might have the offensive lineman you're looking for. And Brian O'Neill, in that same circumstance where I will admit even myself, I was like, I don't get why you're taking my cues.

Now, that pick has not worked out, but we didn't really understand. Like, why are you taking a corner now? You're pretty set at corner. you need offensive line help right away and it turned out that Brian O'Neill did help them right away in 2018 even despite you know some bumps in the road and then has become a really really good player so sometimes you do have to say okay hold on like that Andre the giant drift you ever seen that one who's like no no no, no, no, no, no. Like we might have to be that on night one of the draft. And, you know, those day two prospects, there's not a lot of red flags with them either. I mean, maybe they're not like the freaks that you have in round one.

But I don't know. Like, I mean, Slater, like, opted out last year, you know. That's maybe not as a sure thing. I see, like, someone like Brady Christ Christensen like a three-year starter Liam Eikenberry like a three-year starter at left tackle I mean they're just really like clean cut prospects there's not a lot of mystery to them you you just know that they're good and I feel like that was kind of Brian O'Neill too. So if, and the Vikings have always relied upon, I think, a certain level of experience with their offensive line picks. They like guys that have started multiple years and are on the older side too. Like, you know, Pat Elfline and Garrett Bradbury,

they weren't young. Like Garrett Bradbury was almost 24 years old. So they appreciate having a lot of information about these prospects. And it's just one after the other, like these day two offensive linemen that have been playing forever with like 2,500 snaps in college, and they allowed two sacks total, you're probably getting a pretty good player. So I'm with you. I think the question is, if it's not offensive line, where is it? Like the defensive end is certainly the bigger need than a wide receiver. But wide receiver, I think, presents more talent. Which of those two directions would you prefer? I mean, well, you know, wide receiver. No, I'm not surprised. I'm not surprising anyone by saying this just and it's really just because

that I think that a wide receiver can have more of an impact right away and I feel like if that's the position you've put yourself in with a coach and a general manager who really want to win this year if that's the way you've managed free agency then that's your best chance and it's not just I know people get tired of me saying this but like it's not just, I know people get tired of me saying this, but it's like, it's not just me guys. I mean, Chris Trapasso said, if there's any player who could make a big impact for next year, like the biggest impact player they could draft would be Devante Smith. Now Devante Smith might go in the top 10. He might not be there, but it's just the idea that next year, if you're talking about the biggest

impact position, it's probably not defensive end. It's probably not offensive tackle. Those usually take more development than a wide receiver. And I also just think of, you know, Justin Jefferson and blank, you know, and Devante Smith and Jalen Waddle, whoever it might be, and just how exciting that would be. I think that last year was really a drag for Vikings fans. So in a way, if I'm driving you crazy with this take, I'm thinking of you, like Vikings fans. I know you want Kirk Cousins protected, and that's fair, but maybe you can have your cake and eat it too a little bit.

I want to get your opinion, Sam, on something that I read from Kaylin Kaler, who now works for Defector. She's been on the show. She used to work for Bleacher Report, and then before that, Sports Illustrated. She wrote a really interesting piece about how there is only about half the number of players who have signed on with an agent from what it would normally be during draft season. So normally during draft season, there will be about 1, or more than a thousand players who sign on with agents. And of course, they're hoping to either get drafted or find spots as undrafted free agents.

And this year, it's only in like the 600s. Now, what I know from our buddy, Jeremiah Searles, is that agents actually scout players themselves. And then they, you know, target certain players to try to become their agent because they think there's a chance that they might succeed. Do you interpret that as this draft is way less deep than it would be in the past because there are far fewer players signing with agents? Or would you say that the talent is thicker because these are the only players who decided that they were ready for the draft when a lot of players decide to stay for another year of eligibility. I mean, which way do you think we should interpret that? Because I can't decide. Yeah, that's pretty nuanced.

So, I mean, let's be honest first. There's like 100 impact guys per draft. The remaining 150 are hopefuls, I think it is probably realistic to say. Secondly, a lot of players at the college level probably didn't have the type of seasons in 2020 that they wanted to. Obviously for juniors, you know, the junior season is huge because that's when you can declare. And if you have a like decent season at all, and you feel like you can get picked, I don't know, fifth round or higher, fourth round or higher, you're probably declaring. There might be a lot of fringe players that thought they were going to play a lot as a junior,

and then COVID happened, the season happened, maybe they were in a conference where they only played like half a dozen games, or they didn't progress the way they wanted to. And they're staying for that extra college year. To me, that feels like a little bit of a reason. And additionally, if they return to school, they can transfer, right? One-time transfer rule so they can set themselves up for like a very bountiful successful like really good situation in 2021 which might set them up even better for the draft and we might see big numbers next year um just reacting to what you're saying

those are my initial takeaways so here's what i would think about this is that the top players are legit the top hundred players as you mentioned are absolutely NFL first three round prospects and kind of a really good group of them at least from my eye and and reading you know I don't know dozens and dozens of different good draft analysts on this. It feels like through the third round, this should be really good. There are other drafts in the past where you go, I don't know, outside the top 10, you're talking about majorly flawed players. But even just looking at the relative athletic scores of guys who are projected to go in the second and third round, you're like, wow.

I mean, there are some serious athletes here. But I think this is a year where you only come out if you know for sure that you're being drafted in those first three rounds, unless you're really desperate to get drafted and get your NFL career started. That to me says that the Vikings should be trying to get into that second round, get into that third round, because the talent is very thick there. But I also think it's going to have a very quick drop off at some point. And when I draft Sim, I'll tell you, it's usually maybe the midway through the fourth is where I feel like, wow,

there's only super flawed players here after this. And maybe I get lucky in the draft Sim, and they give me somebody that they shouldn't. and that that does happen but it feels like every time I do a seven round draft sim and go through the whole thing that there's this wall you run into after the third round and maybe your first fourth round pick where you just don't feel like you really want any of these guys at that point and that's why I think that this year of all years is not the one to be trading back and trading back and trading back. You saw Brad Spielberger and you wrote about this too at the website, but Brad Spielberger had numbers on trades from all the GMs and everyone else had like three, four,

five, six trade downs. And Rick Spielman is 28. It was like, okay, okay. Trader Rick is absolutely legit. I think this is the year to not be Trader Rick in trading back a bunch of times.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, you probably don't want to turn your four-fourths into eight-sevenths. I know that everyone's afraid of that because the Vikings have no sevenths, and they always have multiple sevenths. But I think you can wheel and deal at a micro level, like move up two picks in the third, you know, in exchange for a fourth, then, like, move, you know, back in the fourth, get an extra fifth. Like, I think you can do little moves here and there if there are very specific players.

I wouldn't do a major trade-up, certainly, and we'll get into this, but it's very unrealistic that the Vikings would trade up into the second round. I think more likely is that if they want to be in the second round, they would have to trade back. And I think that's the one major move that you'd want to consider because I think the second round is plentiful. So if you can keep your first and add a second, I would pursue that. We'll probably touch on this coming up here, but it's not as easy as it sounds.

So the Vikings will need a very specific like scenario to pop up. But that said, yeah, like I think you need to trust that the top 100, 125 are probably more of sure things. And then you get into the murky waters where a lot of these guys didn't have a chance to ascend. Like the reason that they are a day three prospect is because they probably expected like more starting time in their junior season. And then they had like a weird off season. Maybe they didn't play right away like they wanted to, and they didn't improve like they wanted to because of how weird everything was. And, like, I heard a conference call with Bill Belichick,

who was saying that the 2019 tape carries more weight than any other year, where they're going back two years to look at guys just because of the wackiness of the season. I think that probably presents possibilities for Diamonds in the Rough. But more likely, it's going to be harder for you to really pinpoint who's good on day three. So at least the Vikings are front-loaded on day three. It's four-fourths and two-fifths. So yeah, I don't think there's any reason to move those back.

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All of their apparel is screen printed here in Minnesota on super soft, super comfy shirts and hoodies. You will love it. Plus, keep your eyes and ears out for our giveaways going on on this show as well on social media. Follow them at SodaStickCo on Twitter and at SodaStick.com for your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. Code PURPLEINS Insider for free shipping. Yeah, and that's what I'm referring to because I think that the bottom of the draft, it's always a crapshoot. It's always unlikely that you're going to hit home runs toward the bottom of the draft.

But this one, more than even years past, there are just fewer people to even choose from toward the end of the draft. So don't be trading out of 78 to go down to whatever early in the fourth. We've seen them do this before. Remember last year when they had a late third, and I think they traded out of it to draft early in the fourth. Was that last year? Yeah, because day two, we were all staying up late and waiting. Who are you going to pick or whatever?

And then they make a trade to, I think, New Orleans. And New Orleans takes some tight end or whatever. And they traded onto the fourth round. Like, don't be doing those. I know they will, but I don't think that that's a good play this year. I think this year, take some of those fourths and maybe try to get back into the third. Like, try to get more top 100 talents this year, because those are the only guys who I think really have a chance to make it. Now you talk about, so when I said don't trade down,

I don't mean in the first, in the first, of course, let's talk about that. Because you went through and you tried to figure out how they could get into the second round. And I found this really interesting. And I'm sure I mentioned it, but I'm not 100% sure, that Thomas Dimitrov was on the PFF forecast podcast, and he said, and this is the former GM of the Falcons, that everyone still uses that same draft chart, which blows my mind, but he said it's like talking the same language, that they add up the little numbers and everything else. So you took the draft chart and tried to figure out how they could get back in the second and you also passed up on Kyle Pitts on the way and you know you got heckled on Twitter which was funny but

for the exercise you were trading back so what what was your your main finding on how difficult it might be for the Vikings to get a second round pick by trading back in the first. You bet. So let's just like high level explanation of the trade chart. Pick number one is worth 3,000 virtual points. Seventh round picks are worth one point. And there's a pretty steep drop off. Like the first pick of the second round for Jacksonville is worth 580 compared to their 3,000 in the first round. So the picks obviously drop off fast. So what that tells you is you're not going to be able to like package a third and a fourth and move up into the second. It doesn't work that way. You would need to give like all of your fourths and a fifth to get a second round

pick. And no one's going to do that. Like those are so, they're so much less value, valuable as evidenced by how many of them you would need um not even like packaging two of your thirds would necessarily get you into the second round so you you've probably got to trade back if you want that second round pick okay so the vikings pick at 14 it's worth 1100 virtual points um for a team to trade up to get that, um, and give their second round pick as well, you probably have to have someone jump seven spots because if you're trading back one spot with, with new England, you would just be like swapping picks and the new England tosses in a fourth.

Um, you're not getting a second round pick, you know, with Las Vegas, Las Vegas tosses in like a third maybe, but you're not getting a second. So you've got to keep going back and back and back to Indianapolis, which I think is the first team that could like you could ask them realistically for a second round pick because the 800 points in the first round and then the 360 in the second round, 1100, 1160, that's pretty comparable. Hopefully people are following the numbers here but my point is can i just talk to you real quick how funny is all of this like how funny is it that jimmy johnson invented this chart i don't know 30 years ago right 30 years ago and everyone's just

like okay works for me that's how we're going to do it this is fantasy football stuff that this is how they're evaluating and what dimitrov said on the podcast was like, look, if we invent our own value chart based on analytics or whatever, how do we explain that to the Denver Broncos? If we're the Falcons like, yes, but it's actually worth, you know, 1000 virtual points. Right. So your point is just a quick recap on all of those numbers is just that the idea that they can go back one spot, two spots, three spots, and then get a second is pretty far-fetched. I would throw this in there, though, because there was a very cool thing put out by, I think it was Lee Sharp of PFF, about how there have been many trades where they've overpaid by a lot, even by the Jimmy Johnson chart. I think the Mac Jones situation is the only one where you could actually pull that off,

even if you're not moving all the way back into the 20s or something like that. Yeah, yeah. I think when you're dealing with the upper crust of the first round, the difference between the third and fourth pick is enormous. That's why the Vikings were able to get a bounty when they swindled the Browns in 2012. And they got Trent Richardson and the Vikings got Matt Khalil and three more picks. It doesn't work that way at the end of the first round.

So there's a dozen teams between 21 and 32 who could trade up with the Vikings and would conceivably give a second round pick. But you can eliminate some too, right? Like, I don't think division rival Packers are going to make that trade. I don't think the Colts, who don't have a third round pick, probably want to make that trade um you know the jets they're maybe but i think the jets probably want to hold on to that and their other picks because they need talent on that team so what you have to look for teams with a ton of picks who have like insurance later in the draft or teams that are really good and are just looking for single pieces. For example, the Saints, I think it was last year, traded all of their day two arsenal to get Cesar Ruiz,

an interior offensive lineman, and didn't pick again until the fourth round. If the Saints wanted to do that again, I think the Vikings would be thrilled. If a team like the Chiefs or the Bucs or the Titans, teams that are already good, looking for a plug-and-play, wanted to do that, I think the Vikings would be thrilled with that. But the most interesting team caller is not a good team. It's the worst team. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars.

They've got two firsts, two seconds, two fourths, two fifths, and a third. So they could realistically just swap first-round picks and give you a second. You could get 45, which you gave up in the Ngakwe trade. It would be a perfect deal. It works out with the points. Just swap with Jacksonville and get their second. And the Jags would still have the 33rd overall pick at the top of the second round. So they would still have a second-round pick.

They would get an extra guy in the first, someone to maybe pair with Trevor Lawrence, someone to put on defense. It actually makes a lot of sense. And the Vikings could like make amends for the botched Ngakwe trade. You're welcome, Rick, is basically what you're saying. It's like you've taken the time to figure this out for who they should be trading with.

I love that, the Jaguars. And what makes it realistic, and of course you know that we wouldn't be able to hold our parade in this case, but what makes it realistic is if one of the weapons drops and you're the Jaguars, and they already have decent receivers. They picked LaVisca Chennault last year. But, I mean, they could be a team that says, or even, you know, Christian Derrissaw or something, that says we really need to get Rashawn Slater or Christian Derrissaw. And as much as that would frustrate everyone, if they passed on those guys, if you trade

it back and got a second, and we're still able to take someone like Walker Little out of Stanford, whose athleticism really surprised me when we were, you know, doing our draft guide and looked at his relative athletic scores, you know, somebody like that who is projected as a second-round pick because he didn't play last year and so forth, but you could still get him and he has starting-level talent. I mean, that would be a huge win, I think, for the Vikings if they were able to do that.

So that is a team to the Jaguars with Urban Meyer. Like, they want to be good right away. They don't want to have, oh, we're going to go 4-13 or something in our first year with Trevor Lawrence. Like, no, when you draft a Trevor Lawrence, you want to have an Andrew Luck quick turnaround where you go 10 and seven, or you go nine and eight and you, you take a huge jump forward and a wide receiver, a playmaker might be able to do that for them if they're there. So that's, that's great work. And you did the whole breakdown and I opened it up for everybody because I loved it.

So if you go to purpleinsider.substack.com, you can see Sam's entire ridiculously detailed breakdown that I really love. So was there anything else you wanted to say about that before I have another question for you? No, I'm pretty stuck on the Jaguars scenario. But, I mean, keep in mind, everyone's going to want to talk to the Jaguars because they have so many picks and everyone knows it. And the Jaguars are going to have an incredible draft no matter what. Like they have, you know, nine picks scheduled in the top 150, I want to say. So they're going to move around, but everyone's going to be on the phone with them. So you need to be in a spot at 14 where there's a player, and in our sim, it was Kyle Pitts, somebody who's one of a kind,

someone that they can't turn down. And everyone's going to ask, well, if it's Kyle Pitts, why don't you just take him? And I can't disagree with that. That'd be a pretty good player. And one of the more valuable players, frankly, because there is no peer for him in this draft. Like he's the only one of his kind.

Pat Friermuth is nowhere close. It's Kyle Pitts, huge drop-off, and the rest of the tight ends. So I would not fault the Vikings for just making that pick and then sitting out the second round. I think that would almost be worth it. Yeah, I agree with you, unless you could get them to even pay more because someone was desperate for that. But I also think that the teams in front of them could also determine this, too, because like you said, I mean, if you are Philadelphia and Kyle Pitts makes it to you, you're trying to trade out of that potentially

because you've got a tight end in Dallas Goddard and you need players, need lots of football players if you're Philadelphia. The Giants decided to leak it out there that they might be interested in trading down. So there's so many trade down teams and even the Chargers fall into this category too before the Vikings that you might not get the chance. And that will be interesting to see how it plays out. So I have two more things for you. And one of them I think was fun and got a ton of responses on Twitter. So I'll throw it at you. But first, I want to know from you, I was thinking about this

doing the draft research and when you wrote in the draft guide, the best picks that they had made since 2000. So I want to know from you, which draft picks the Vikings have made in recent years, where you had a very strong feeling one way or the other, because anybody who's listened to me for a while knows that I, you could kind of sell me one way or the other. It's like, oh, well, I love this draft pick because of this or that. And I'm like, I don't know, maybe he'll work out, you know? And I mean, that ends up being me a lot of times. I don't know. Yeah, maybe, you know I I didn't have a strong feeling about Laquan Treadwell but I thought like oh I watched him in college he was good right just I

don't know like maybe it'll work maybe it won't but um I know that that's something that people will want from us and we will attempt to bring the strongest opinions we can and it's one of my favorite things is when fans have these super strong takes on whether the team did the right thing or wrong thing and analysts give you an F minus or an A plus. I think it was the Russell Wilson draft Seattle got like C minuses and stuff from draft analysts. So do you do you recall which picks you had the strongest takes on? Yeah, so covered six vikings drafts um i'm kind of going year by year here so 2015 loved tj clemmings thought clemmings was a great steal in the fourth round and this is a trend a trend right because drew samia was kind of the same way it was like wow he dropped to the

fourth round unbelievable value um but yeah that was my whiff in 2015. And that was a predictable draft. Everyone knew they were going to go Waynes in the first round. And I think everyone was okay with that. He wasn't super polarizing of a player and really never was. He was just kind of average. 2016, again, Treadwell wasn't a surprise. I thought he was going to be better than he ended up being, obviously. Eyebrow raise at Moritz Boringer. What were they doing there? Mackenzie Alexander was a good pick.

I really liked Mackenzie Alexander that draft. I don't know if it was a strong opinion, though. I'm trying to come up with, like, where I really had a visceral reaction. Brian O'Neill was my favorite pick in 2018. But you can go back even farther than that. Like, you've been watching this team. Like, even farther than that. Because I want to go for mine.

I have two of them that I was very strongly for. I thought Ponder was horrible. I nailed the Ponder pick. That's what I'm looking for. That's what I'm looking for. Teddy was a pick that, even though I wasn't in Minnesota yet, I thought was amazing for the Vikings. And maybe it could have been, if not for knees.

But I thought because he was the guy who dropped because of the gloves. You know, he didn't wear the gloves at the pro day, and his pro day wasn't good enough. And just me being me thought, who cares about a pro day? Right? Like you got a guy who was projected as a top five quarterback at 32 because of gloves like this sounds perfect for you and i didn't you know i didn't even care about the vikings or whatever wasn't covering them at the time i just thought what a great idea to trade back up into the first

round to take this guy who could be a franchise quarterback who was if you watched him in college i mean his win against miami was really something I mean, Louisville was such a trash program and then was all of a sudden good. That was my one that I felt really strongly about on the plus side. And then also Justin Jefferson. When the Eagles took Jalen Rager, I had the same reaction as the Vikings draft, where I was like, what? How is this possible? This guy with 100 catches and dominance in the national championship and a 4-4-40 and a 90 plus percent relative athletic, like how is this guy still here? And it didn't take long for that one to turn out. So those were the ones that I had the strongest plus reactions to. Yeah, I feel like a lot of my

strong pluses were wrong. Like, I remember really liking Josh Robinson back in 2012. He was crazy fast. I mean, and that kind of played out in the pros, too. He was always with the guy. He just didn't know how to make a play on the ball, so I whiffed on that. You know, the 2013 first round was incredible and looked like it was going to be franchise altering. And then that team fell flat on its face. Rhodes was not effective in the first year. Floyd was not really effective in the first year. And Patterson was great.

And then it kind of flip-flopped after that. And, you know, we all know what happened with Floyd and Patterson fizzled and Rhodes ended up being the best of the bunch. But, yeah, and like recently you mentioned Jefferson. Last year, my my least favorite pick was Cameron Dantzler. I thought Dantzler like couldn't tackle. I thought he, you know, was slow and he ended the best, like, rookie corner that they had. So instinct is often wrong when it's me having the instinct. Hey, everyone.

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So if you're like them and you enjoy the show and you have shipping needs, check out ScoutLogistics.com or call 855-217-2688 extension 232 to connect with them directly to find out how Scout Logistics can minimize risk and overperform and go the extra mile for your company. I like that you're taking swings at takes on guys that aren't in the first or second round, that you're taking these big hacks at it uh now i i'm not intentionally going out of my way to talk about ones that ended up turning out right but the ones that stick out for me that i didn't like and i actually did like danzler last year only because i think uh i tend to follow like what mike renner says a lot

because i think he's very smart and i remember, like, you shouldn't pay too much attention to the 40 times. So I thought, okay, all right. Well, if he was projected as a second rounder, and you got him in the third, that's, you know, good, go for that. And maybe it'll work out, maybe it won't. But ones that I remember specifically being like, really, guys? I mean, obviously, the Willie Beavers one is incredible, because the broadcasts, like, were shocked and didn't know what was going on uh ben gideon was one where i just didn't really get it like when you look up the guy and the first thing it says is he can't cover he's only a run stuffer i know it's a fourth round pick but kind of what are you doing with that like i just didn't really understand it jalen hol Holmes was another one where it went I don't get this either and any punter kicker or

long snapper and this is it like if you want to be right be against any specialist who they draft because they've just not worked out at all and besides that I'll give you one where I was extremely wrong I thought the Dylan Mitchell pick was great and I know that's a seventh rounder. But I was like, wow, this guy is explosive and athletic. I talked to actual freaking Penny Hardaway for a story about – yeah, I did. Penny freaking Hardaway called me to talk about coaching Dylan Mitchell as a young basketball player, and he was super nice. It was a great conversation. That guy didn't matter at all.

He was awful. He had no idea what he was doing out there from day one uh Rodney Adams was the same thing on that day I remember uh one of the people who works for the Vikings in PR Sam Newton we were just talking and he said like uh so you like any of these late picks I was like man I kind of like this Rodney Adams kid like way wrong so you know that's that's how it goes when you're trying to have takes about like day three picks. Yeah. And a lot of these small school guys, they've tried to, where you kind of talk yourself into it because they had like a, like dominant college tape,

someone like, you know, Kyle Hinton at Washburn or Ade Aruna at Tulane or where'd Colby Gossett go? Yeah, Colby Gossett came on, yes. Yeah, yeah, all the small school guys that are pretty good at their level and then they turn out to not be very good. I see why you can talk yourself into it because I watch Quinn Minertz in this year's draft and I watch him like like physically maim non-scholarship d3 athletes and it's it's fun it's a good youtube reel I don't know if it translates but it's it's fun to watch and I I can see like where guys are physically manhandling their opponents in college where you can get enamored by that and talk yourself into it but

it doesn't always work out this is another angle at this is like, which guys on draft day were fans really excited about? Like, wow, you got this guy in the sixth round or whatever. And then all of a sudden, as soon as we get to training camp, it's just over very fast. You know who that was for me? And I know this was actually the start of our milkshake bets was Bucky Hodges was the one where I remember I went on care and I was on was actually the start of our milkshake bets was Bucky Hodges was the one where I remember I,

I remember I went on care and I was on with Dave Schwartz, who's our friend and shout out to Dave Schwartz for hooking me up with his realtors. And that's why I'm sitting in my house right now. So, and Dave brought me on and asked me about Bucky Hodges and like, Oh, this is really exciting. Sixth round tight end. And I was like, yeah, man, you should see him run. It's crazy's crazy you know like this could be awesome and then very quickly when pat schirmer was screaming at him out on the practice field that he couldn't get the plays right it's like i don't think it's gonna work i don't think he's gonna make it so it's but yeah he did i think it's fun remind me did he or

did he not make the 53 men roster i can't remember just to remind me how that went down. This is technicality. It's the technicality. So the bet was between you and I on a milkshake was whether Bucky would make it because we were watching the practices and it was going really bad for Bucky. So I was saying, no way, no way he's making this 53. When they announced the 53, he was on it, and they cut him the next day. And I tried to appeal, and we brought in an independent arbiter, John Krasinski, and he ruled against me. But I still think that it's a technicality.

I won that. It's kind of like Vikings fans saying, hey, you know, if Sam Bradford had started the NFC Championship, maybe they would have won. Hey, we put the debate up for, like, a neutral. One of our peers made a ruling, and I think we just have to stick with that. We have to honor Johnny Athletic's decision. It's fair. It's fair.

It's fair. I'm still salty, but it was a fair decision by due process, and I thank John Krasinski for that. The last thing I want to ask you, I put this out on Twitter, got a ton of responses, was just who the funniest guy that gets compared to players all the time during draft season is. The one that I came up with was obviously Daniil Hunter, if a guy is athletic and has no sacks,

is a tremendously funny comparison that's made constantly. Le'Veon Bell for every patient runner and every undersized defensive tackle is Aaron Donald. And a bunch of people came up with, like, Wes Welker is every white, you know, undersized wide receiver and things like that. What is your favorite hilarious comparison that gets made all the time during draft season? Yeah. I don't know if you know this name but you do love 90s football Chris Walsh was a like of course I know that name was okay good good good yeah gritty fourth wide receiver special teams ace type that I feel

like Vikings fans are always looking for the next Chris Walsh. And at one time, Adam Thielen was the next Chris Walsh. Like, it was Chris Walsh in the flesh. And he, believe it or not, actually got better than Chris Walsh. I don't know if you're aware of that. So that's a good local angle. On a, like, vaster scale, I feel um wide receivers are so like easily compared like if they've got good hands but they're not very fast it's like oh it's you know it's it's Chris Carter I guess that's another local one but like if they're big one Bolden is another one that gets yeah yeah like like tough and or if they're really tall and they have, like, long strides, it's Calvin Johnson. Yes.

Yep, Calvin Johnson gets comped quite a bit because he was pretty distinctive, obviously. You know, probably, like, everyone's looking for the next Joe Thomas at left tackle if they're just, like, kind of a big, burly, like, you know, good pass blocker. The all-timer is anyone who's drafted late. Some analysts will say, well, you know, Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick, so might as well take a shot on the guy. Yeah, I don't know, man. Yeah, and the quarterback comparisons can get pretty lazy, too,

because any pocket guy is going to get compared to, like, you know, Mack Jones and Kirk Cousins. We've talked about that. Like, all the pocket guys can get compared to,, you know, Mack Jones and Kirk Cousins. We've talked about that. Like all the pocket guys can compare to like a handful of other pocket guys. And then the athletic ones get compared to Lamar Jackson or RG3. And it's, it's kind of, it's, it's an annoying comparison. It's a lazy comparison, but there's not that many notable, like quarterbacks are pretty exclusive club.

So there's only so many that you can really stack them up against. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Every, every short quarterback, if you're not mobile, you're drew breeze. And if you are mobile, you're Russell Wilson. I was going to say Flutie. Yeah. Oh yeah. Doug Flutie back in the day. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know how many times I've heard that comparison, but I want to start using it. So I think that's a fun thing we should do at some point is take comparisons

of current draft players. We do this for another podcast and make them to current Vikings and see if we can make some like square pegs fit in round holes with that. Like who is the most Adam Phelan like receiver in this draft is a really good question. Oh, we could, we could figure it out. I think it actually might be Devante Smith, but Phelan is, Ph could figure it out. I think it actually might be Devontae Smith. But Thielen is stronger.

Thielen is bigger. Are there any D2 guys that are, like, low-level, low-level, wide? I don't even know the answer. Are there some low-level, wide receivers later on? Cade Johnson is one that I like. Oh, Cade Johnson. Yeah, South Dakota State. Yeah, I like Cade Johnson a lot.

He, like you said, the highlight reel is great. But also, those guys, when they go to the Senior Bowl, that's a huge help for them. Because they can play against really good players. And Kay Johnson's great. So, yeah, I like him. He's better than Jake Winnikey. Remember Jake Winnikey? Do remember Jake Winnikey.

He was supposed to be, like, the next Thielen. And he got to training camp. And that was, like, a really hyped training camp wide receiver class too. I can't remember all the names, but it was Tavares King, I'm pretty sure, and Winnikee, and, yeah, none of them were very good. My dog is jingling. Jingling in the background? Yeah, well, say hi to Captain for me.

Okay, well, that's a good – if we don't have a dog in the background at least once, then we have failed as podcast. Can we get a sponsor for the dog jingles? Can we sell that part of it? I think we can. So everyone should go check out your piece about trading down purpleinsider.substack.com. And also if you sign up for even just one month at purpleinsider.substack.com, you get our draft guide, which is 72 pages, more than 50 profiles of players that are draftable this year, targets for the Vikings. You did your best pick since 2000. You did Vikings trends.

I did a draft simulation that I think I hit it out of the park, as I always do on my draft sims. So it's worth it. I see people selling draft guides for $20, and this one you get all of our draft coverage and the draft guide for seven, if you sign up for just one month. So there's your little commercial for that. And Sam, we will talk in the Friday round table. And then next week,

we're going to go to birdie golf, do our draft preview there. Can we announce who the round table guest is right now? I negotiations too secretive. No, I just, I just don't trust sage that's why sage rosenfels is supposed to be our friday roundtable guest and we'll see we'll see he

is a traveler of the world like every time i talk to sage he's somewhere else he's like training quarterbacks and working with qb collective so he didn't give me a definitive 1000 thumbs up but i think that's what we're doing. Well, I mean, Sage is great because he ties our careers together. Like, we have both independently podcasted with Sage, and now we're all going to be in the same place at once. But does he have, like, last year it was Anthony Gordon. Remember? He had a quarterback that he was pounding the table for.

Is there going to be an Anthony Gordon in this year's draft? I can't wait to hear. I know he worked with Ian Book, so maybe Ian Book is his guy. We'll have to talk to him about that. And Klassen just, like, destroyed Ian Book last week. Hates him. That's how it goes. All right, Sam, thanks for your time, man. Thank you.