Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Is it Ty Chandler time for the Vikings (and fantasy players?)

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

Matthew Coller and Mike Schopp of The Deep End fantasy football podcast discuss Aaron Jones's success and aging RBs succeeding but will Ty Chandler earn some more playing time if Jones is out? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here along with Mike Shope. It is the Purple Insider Fantasy Football Show. Mike, you've been a fan of the football podcast and also WGR 550 in Buffalo and maybe we will circle back on that whole point about missing wide receivers after a game last week. But I wanted to start by asking you just how it's going with your fantasy football season, because I looked back at some of my underdog drafts that I did and had you break down during the summer.

You weren't always the most positive and props to the haters because it hasn't gone that well for me. And three different ones that stood out that I tried to put effort into and props to the haters because it hasn't gone that well for me. Uh, in three different ones that stood out that I tried to put effort into and tried to gain your approval. I am fourth out of sixth, fourth out of sixth and seventh out of 12. So I could still make a comeback in these.

It hasn't really gone that well so far. I've been kind of 50, 50 on my, uh, pickups where I pick something random to happen, which is nice. And, we've been up and down on our pick-ems where I pick something random to happen, which is nice. And we've been up and down on our pick-ems at the end of the show, which we'll give again for a Thursday night football. But how about you? How are you doing this fantasy season?

Well, I want to talk about you first. So did you look at it closely enough to feel like you know why you're getting beat? Sometimes when you're getting beat, it's random. If you got the first pick and you pick Christian McCaffrey, nobody would have blamed you. And now we're looking at maybe if he comes back at all, half the season at least. And, you know, we do our best to try to figure out who the best plays are. Bijan Robinson, Brees Hall seemed like fine picks

in the middle of the first round, and they're not hitting. Other running backs are, and you're sort of reminding me that I wasn't always – that's why you like me, I think, that I'm not just going to sort of pat your back. But you're reminding me that I was critical, and if I think about that, I think, well, you tended to skew older and avoid rookies and like anything, you're going to have good and bad when it comes to that. So do you know why you're not doing better? I think it's a little bit of, I did run away from people like Malik neighbors and people like Jaden Daniels, which I realized how many opportunities I had to draft.

And I instead went with somebody like Justin Herbert that just has not been all that productive. That's a big thing is that a lot of the quarterbacks, I went with Jared Goff, for example, and Jared Goff has been winning games and went 18 for 18 or whatever it was the other night. But for the most part, he hasn't put up huge statistics. I was pleased to see Kyler Murray breaking out, but that was another one. I think that some of the wide receivers that I bet on, Justin Jefferson being one of them, have just not blown anybody out of the water. Jordan Addison got hurt. It is kind of though, I would say, a mix between I overdrafted people. I ignored guys that could have been good young draft picks that have exploded so far.

I didn't make too many savvy picks. Like Wanda Robinson has been really good for the giants. I had plenty of opportunities to pick him and I should have figured that they were going to throw to somebody else outside of Malik neighbors. But I was like, ah, he's on the giants. I'm just not picking him.

So I think there was some element of, I need to grab somebody that nobody else is getting pretty high that ends up working out. And that may be luck factor or skill factor. And I also think too, that it's a long season and I've still got a chance in all of these to come back. But yeah, I think that it just wasn't, there's no draft where you can look at it and go, oh, wow, what a genius pick that was. I kind of went very chalk on a lot of things and that doesn't really separate you in drafts like this. Yeah, there's so many layers to it. Like Wanda Robinson is really interesting to think about.

I know you were, you wanted to talk about the Giants today. They lose neighbors for that game in Seattle. It's a bad matchup. The one thing that's good about it for fantasy is if they're losing, they'll have to throw the ball a lot. They don't have Singletary, but that really worked out for Robinson, especially for Darius Slayton. And that's a game where they were constantly ahead. So it's really hard to know, but what I didn't ever appreciate when you were in Buffalo and we knew each other at work is,

because I wasn't playing fantasy sports then, is how many different dimensions or layers there are to it. Like if you're betting a lot of us in, you know, high stakes at the deep end and different places are drafting literally hundreds of teams and you really have to pinpoint what your bet is like if you're if you were somebody that wouldn't want to bet on neighbors something about his profile something about his landing spot all right well that's fine your bet. Then figure out what else to do with it. And that might have been Robinson. That might have been Slayton. You know, that might have been just other things.

If you were betting against the Giants right now, I have Browns guys, and it's very uncomfortable starting anybody on the Browns. But, like, last week was a great matchup. So Watson, Judy, Cooper, I kind of wanted to, but like last week was a great matchup. So Watson, Judy Cooper, I kind of wanted to start those guys last week, projections like them and it totally busted. So you're not necessarily going to be right,

but you want to see the whole board. It's a West wing. One of many little West wing lines that I have, have stuck to me, see the whole board. It was a chess metaphor on that show. When it comes to fantasy draft boards. All right. I'm not betting on neighbors. That's fine. You got to make some flag plants. What am I doing otherwise that makes sense, that works with that?

And so it's not avoiding rookies. It's not avoiding veterans. It might be going younger when it comes to breaking ties. So there's lots of ways to analyze it and you can just sort of end up spending your entire waking life trying to figure it out. How am I doing? It's so many teams. Of course, it's going to be mixed. I am excited about our tournament at the deep end with Adam Crotworth, the deep end invitational, where I sit first overall at a 48 with many of the top analysts in the industry. It's still early, but I liked my draft and so far so good. You don't want to have like the worst luck when it comes to injuries. That happens.

You can't control it. And some of these teams, many of these teams are going to be out of your control. You know, and others like in my case, of course, are dead. But I'm holding my own. You know, a lot of more casual players will have one or two teams. And I think if you commit to the work, the quote work that it is, to go on waivers and, you know, try to keep up with the news day to day, it really is literally day to day.

There's the Monday night game. There's the Thursday night game. There's a Thursday night game. There's so much happening in between. Nico Collins just went on IR. What does that mean? You know, it's Tank Dell, but it's Hutchinson, I think is the guy's name, who filled in for Collins last week and did some things. There are new names that come into my world every week.

The Carolina guy, it's five letters. I can't remember his name right now, but they lose Leggett. There's a lot out there that can help you, especially running back. Wide receiver this year, there's been a lot of injuries. Running back is always that way. Quarterback is upside down. You would have been fine. You would have thought I would have given you a better grade. Picking Allen, Hurts, Mahomes. Mahomes, ADOT is the lowest in the NFL and they're 5-0. I mean, Allen, Ian Harden's had that Allen has finished outside of the top 18 quarterbacks three times in the last three years. It's three times already this year. I mean, what

are you supposed to do with that? So it's about construction and if you're drafting a lot, diversity, you know, having certain amounts of different guys, who you like more, you have more of, but you don't want to avoid anybody entirely. Alvin Kamara was tough for me this year because I just, I didn't like his agency. I didn't like his, you know, his coach, although they got a new offensive coordinator. I just hated it.

And he's rb2 through five weeks so what can you do well why don't we talk a little more about those running backs uh because where i did do pretty well i think was picking more proven running backs so far i had done well picking aaron jones in fantasy but then he gets banged up with a hip injury and the word is week to week, which with a bi-week this week means it's not impossible that he's going to play against the Detroit lions. I don't know if that's going to be the case. They have two games in a row. They play, well, everyone has two games in a row, but two games in four days, they play the lions and then they play the Rams. So they may want to not play Jones against Detroit and then play him against the Rams

on Thursday night to have him back a hundred percent fresh. And I don't know if this injury is going to derail the season that he had, but I do think it is somewhat of a trend here that proven running backs have thrived this season. Derek Henry is just looking like Jim Brown out there. And Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, you mentioned. Also, James Conner, kind of always and forever a middle quality running back. Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor. I guess, what have you made at a position where we love random guys emerging,

where we always talk about, oh, you can get a running back from anywhere. The fact that it is some guys that signed with other teams, some guys that are on the older and more expensive side that have been doing really well this year. Well, they're all different. I mean, that's, that's always true. I mean, every one of these situations is different. And also like in an underdog context, just to say this at least once when we're drafting those tournament teams, we are leaning into late in the season when the rookies are more likely to pay off. So I mean, even with that list, you've had Tyron Tracy,

you know, have the game he had for the Giants last week because there was a Singletary injury. There are, of course, Jordan Mason since week one. There are these examples. So they're all different. I mean, he was always special and the fit just seemed kind of perfect. But what's interesting about that to me is, I mean, he got there in fantasy in week five, but that was a game where they were losing all day and Lamar Jackson lit up Cincinnati through the air. So you got both. You know, you had the argument against Henry was often game script dependent.

And well, if the Ravens are going to win all the time maybe that makes him a better pick he's been fine I mean he's been very good he still looks like Derrick Henry not always the most efficient running back but that was a game where they were losing you know throughout and then they get to overtime they get a missed field goal and he busts another 50-yard run after that sort of just bonus points at that point. Barkley is really, I think, the most interesting to analyze in terms of fantasy drafting because he was like an early second round pick, if not late first. And many people were just sort of driven to wide receiver in that range of drafts. That was A.J. Brown, who hasn't played since week one. That was Puka Nakua, who

hasn't played since week one. You know, sometimes Cooper Cup by the end of it, when he got steamed up a little bit. Garrett Wilson, London are getting there. Harrison a little bit less so. So that again is roster building for me. And if I got picks in the late, you know, the late slots, I would never have picked Barkley, like just because I want the two receivers there and then I'll get to Travis ETN or somebody like that. And I'm getting beat in drafts where I picked late because the Barkley, you know, manager is ahead. So I think they're all kind of different. Jones just read that Nico Collins went on IR for Houston with a hamstring injury. He suffered on a touchdown catch against the Bills. And so he's even like sort of thumbs upping his team as he's walking off the field. Then it was

day-to-day. Then yesterday it was more week-to-week and now it's's four weeks and I think you know I think teams with a longer season especially playoff bound teams most likely like Houston uh will play that very conservatively and I think that might be the Vikings with Jones I mean they're they're five and oh the division is really good but still like what a dream start for the Vikes I don't know what you thought of how Chandler looked. There weren't any numbers, but I thought he showed a little bit of juice. Do the Vikings think they can get along without Aaron Jones? I would agree with you about week seven.

Like I just think if, if the logic holds here, there's no real way to no real need to, to press him. They want him in January. Oh yeah. A hundred percent. I think with Ty Chandler,

one thing is he got a little screwed on the numbers because his two biggest runs were brought back by penalties and neither one of the penalties actually impacted how he ran the ball. One was illegal formation or illegal motion or something, which the NFL is just blessing us with each week, taking away exciting plays because a guy leaned his shoulder a little bit forward. So thank you for that adjustment to how the flags are being called. And the other one was a block in the back behind the play that had no real impact. He would have ended up with probably five yards to carry if those had counted. He's a little bit shaky, pass protection. He fumbled the ball on a pitch

right to him. And he just doesn't slam through bodies in the same way that Aaron Jones does. I understand why Aaron Jones hurt all the time. He has no regard for his body whatsoever. He just plows into people and he's probably five foot nine and I don't know, 210 pounds or something. That's not Ty Chandler, but he can scoot. I mean, he has elite speed. He ran a, I think, 4.38 at 215 pounds, which is just blazing fast. And every time we've seen him in, he gets big explosive plays. It's just, is he going to be really all that effective through an entire game? We haven't really seen that

outside of one time in Cincinnati last year against a very bad defense where he had a great game the other thing is too that Kevin O'Connell if Aaron Jones is not back there the trend has been he's just not going to stick with the run and we saw that last week you are up 17 points and if they ran for a two-yard gain all all right, we're going back to passing. We're going to throw down the field again. Because I think he gets frustrated. And look, establishing the run isn't great, but running when you're up 17 is. But I don't think that he has ever really kind of been able to put his finger on that

button correctly as a former quarterback. He always wants to lean on the quarterback, trust the quarterback. But I do think that Ty Chandler does have juice. And I think that if they get the screen game going with him, get him some swing passes, he can catch the ball. He can get big gains. And I don't know what you think. And cause they have the buy, but the next game is against Detroit. I don't know what you think about Detroit's defense so far. I think it's been the Aiden Hutchinson show but I'm not convinced that they are some monster defense I think that they're better but if you are Ty Chandler and you're buying Ty Chandler on underdog or something then he's I think he's gonna have to touch the ball pretty much more than anyone else because Myles Gaskin is their

only other running back oh yeah I mean we're out here in fantasy football every week, every day, trying to find running backs that are positioned to get touches because somebody's out. I mean, before the season, I don't know, I was thinking of Chuba Hubbard, but like you're just volume is king. And a guy that Trey Sermon for Indianapolis last week with Taylor out is somebody that's kind of like proven bad, but falls into the end zone,

gets a couple targets. Fine. I mean, that's just happened. That's Singletary's whole career. Like that, that just happens all the time. So Chandler is definitely playable.

I think Hawkinson is interesting for week seven. If Jones is out, which I think might be likely. And then some of those kind of like flat pass kind of plays could go, end up being good for Hawkinson if he's back by then. But yeah, like you're trying to find situations where somebody's in line for, if it's 15 rushes, especially, or really it's not even rushes. You want the passes passes there were a couple

running backs last week that didn't get there on the ground sermon might have been one where it was five or six catches and you sort of survived it and i think the point you made about chandler and those penalties is also good for your sanity as a fantasy player because there are these like they're tilting when you watch them if he goes to the end zone on one of those you're just hating life if you somehow had him on a best ball team or something I did actually start him in in one lineup but that was just out of desperation still like you hate that when you see the flag after a great play but those penalties also you know they don't count in the stats, but they do. They're real and they can kind of deflect from what's actually happening on the field because the guy is getting usage and he is he is being productive, but doesn't count because of other random events.

Right. Yeah. The box score does lie about how he actually played the other day. He didn't play anywhere near as bad as it looked in terms of just attempts and carries because those two plays were taken back. I want to go to a different place in New England. The rookie quarterback class has been fascinating to watch. I thought Bo Nix had probably his best game the other day. It was against the Raiders, but he looked pretty solid in that game.

And we saw Jaden Daniels once again has continued to be a star and Caleb Williams had a breakout type of game. And now here comes Drake May. We have talked about a little bit with Drake May, and I think the entire world shares the same opinion that I hope you are prepared to be very bruised and very battered, Mr. May, because that offensive line is miserable. They don't have the greatest receivers. Is there a, is there another side to that? Like if you are playing in a league where you're dropping and picking up people all

the time, should you be looking at Drake Bay and saying, you know what? He's probably going to be behind in some games. He's probably going to throw a lot. And even if he gets seven sacks in a game, that's not what matters the most to you. It's the passing yards. Or should you just run away because Drake May is in such a difficult position? For me, the easy short answer is yes. You want to be interested.

You want to consider it. There's also that he's probably really talented and that they've waited these five weeks into the season to put him in, which is probably against their better judgment, but they just probably did that because they thought he was just going to die back there. So I would, I, as a player myself, like I don't lose myself in that stuff. You never know. Washington, Kingsbury was supposed to be terrible. There's no weapons, et cetera.

And Daniels has been almost the best quarterback in fantasy so far. He's the easy offensive rookie of the year. He's even in the MVP conversation. That's a really hot game in week six at Baltimore, by the way, Washington. And you never know. It's working out really beautifully there. I liked May more than Daniels before the draft. That, for me, it was close.

Daniels won the Heisman. But May, what he could be, again, in sort of at least a fantasy context is Justin Fields last year with the Bears where they got DJ more. But even before they did, even the year before, like he was he was quarterback eight last year. And you listen to any football discussion about him. It's oh, well, he can't process. He's slow and the weapons aren't there. And, you know, it's oh well he can't process he's slow and the weapons aren't there and you know it's just not promising they end up trading him for a sixth round pick even though he was a first three

years ago they just bail on it and again in fantasy he was just fine as he is this year so far so I think that could be made he's a good athlete and if they give him the green light to run when he's under pressure, or if they don't, but he still does it because that's his instinct. He doesn't have, you know, the reads the way he wants it and it's not there and he just doesn't want to get crushed. That's what he'll do. And I think he's pretty capable in that way. Quarterback and fantasy football is very strange right now. And in most home leagues, it's a one quarterback league, and you're probably not going to need Drake May, you know, ever. I said the same thing about Sam Darnold. He's in the MVP conversation. They're 5-0. It's gone perfectly. And it's still kind of

true. Like you still really never needed Sam Darnold. You still have other guys that are dual threats. You'd rather have Daniels, you know, this season alone than Darnold or Geno Smith or Baker. Like some of these other guys are very comparable. So I don't think in a regular kind of home league, you're ever going to really need Drake May. But Superflex, yes. Dynasty, absolutely. He's already on a team in Dynasty leagues.

And I do think – and Jalen Polk is on the other end of this for me with New England. There's a guy who might be more actionable in a regular fantasy league because I want to think there's draft capital there. There's talent. Maybe you get the rookie quarterback and a little bit more. And Polk has been trending up as it is. You get a little bit more production there.

Hold on. Let me silence my phone real quick so I can tell you that us days are back at U.S. Cellular again. Exclusive offers just for customers just to say thanks. Right now you'll get $1,200 off any phone plus $400 off any tablet. Amazing, right? Yeah, but my family is so excited about their new devices that they keep texting me during the show. They're all about us days deals like $1,200 off any phone and four plus $400 off any tablet terms apply. Visit us cellular.com for details. I was thinking about Drake may just through through the lens a little bit of uh joe burrow and what he did as a rookie for cincinnati where even though now i'm not saying that drake may guaranteed to become joe burrow and we'll be curious to see though he is the high draft pick

he does have all the pedigree where joe burrow struggled a bit and had his bruises and got sacked a bunch and everything, but he was still throwing the ball ton. And they had a game that they, I think, lost to Cleveland, something like 48 to 41, where he's just going back and forth with them. And his defense can't stop anybody. They do play a little bit of low scoring games though, in new England. Uh, but he also might win some of those games he's got to be better than what they've gotten from jacoby brissett who's just been really jacoby brissett e and that's the reason by the way that the vikings went with sam darnold and not a journeyman quarterback like andy dalton or jacoby brissett because those guys always end up getting benched in week five

they always just sort of run out their time. Like, okay, it's frustrating. He's not that good, but their receivers, they have some dudes. They don't have a guy. They don't have a Jefferson. They don't have a superstar, but they have kind of several players that they could throw to and they're going to do it. It's not like they're not going to throw the ball.

I'm just curious about how high that ceiling potentially is because there is a serious risk too, that he could get hurt. If you're talking about the getting sacked all the time. And if also Gerard Mayo is going to try to win games and play like defense run, Ramondre Stevenson, and then, Hey kid, don't do too much. Cincinnati just said, Burrow, just go throw every play. It's fine. I don't know if they're going to do that with Drake May or if they're going to try to kind of rein him in at first. I think the signs point to they'll be very careful,

but they're not going to go and put Brissette back in. I think it's pretty straightforward. You know, what should their incentives be? They're not likely to contend. I want to say that because Brady happened, and I'm old enough to remember that, and the division is pretty soft so far. So I think there is a non-zero that may goes in

and is really good right away, and they make it interesting if the Bills and the Jets, the Dolphins can't get it right. But probably not. So that doesn't really matter in fantasy anyway. In terms of fantasy, you're probably not going to need him. Be open to Polk. See what they do with Kendrick Bourne, who came back last week

but didn't really have any sort of usage there. Maybe they're ramping him up. You never know who May is going to sort of lean on as a favorite target, anybody who's brand new like that. I think in dynasty leagues, he was a pretty high pick, super flex especially where you start two quarterbacks. But if he struggles for two or three weeks early, then the guy who drafted him might be a little, you know, desperate and be out. And maybe you could sort of depends on the condition of your team, but you could sort of make a move there.

Right. Right. If I may just sort of add this. Right now in fantasy, so we're five weeks in, and not the underdog best ball landscape, but just in managed leagues, this is a critical moment. If you're four and one, somebody else is one and four, and especially if you are looking where draft picks might be tradable, depending on the format of your league, it's a good time to pounce. Last week might have even been better because the 1-4 team might be already ready to give up or just not bother. But this is when you can try to take your team from good to great this year

if you're off to a good start. So I would be especially active like last week, this week, when it comes to midweek and trying to figure out where there might be a trade opportunity in your league. Makes sense. Speaking of good to great, how about the Jets obviously will be taken to the next level by firing their pretty good head coach. Very curious move by the Jets. It sounds like it was Robert Sala wanting to move on or demote someone that Aaron Rogers loves, which of course is the worst thing you could possibly do as a coach. Um, your job, uh, how, how dare Robert Sala try to do his job when Aaron Rogers runs the franchise also kind

of weird since Aaron Rogers has not been good since 2021, I think, was probably the last time he was actually a good quarterback. Very stable and healthy franchise over there. The Jets and the Bills play each other this week, and that's one that I'm going to be a little fascinated by because the Bills have, the last couple of weeks, made us very right about offseason opinions about wide receivers. Oh, wow, we could just play this rookie and not Stefan Diggs here anymore. And we'll just throw the ball to everybody. Well,

not if you go nine for 30 or whatever. And on the jet side, Aaron Rogers last week really committed to throwing to Garrett Wilson on almost every play. And sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't for him. But I think if you are a Wilson owner, you're like, oh, okay. That's what we're doing now. But Rogers will be motivated to try to prove it was Robert Sala's fault going forward. And I never underestimate his ability to find something. He did look miserable, though, in that game. I mean, like he did not want to be there.

He just wanted to fly off into the woodlands of Brazil and go up in a tree and stay there forever. So what is your kind of feeling about this game and what it will say for both teams going forward? Because I think it is kind of a pivotal game, Bills and Jets. It's really so interesting. The last NFL in-season coaching change was the Chargers last year when they fired Brandon Staley in December, and their first game post that firing was against Buffalo at home in

prime time. And that's exactly what the Jets have here. And I think everybody would say it's a little bit unsettling if you're the other team, and that happens. I will say about Salah, I don't blame the Jets for making the move. It's the only move they had, and they've already pushed all their chips in, and it's pretty gross. It always has been from the moment they traded Rodgers, Nate Hackett, Alan Lazard, all of it. We've all known the score, and it was always pointed to this.

It just happened. So it is life as a head coach. He was 20 and 32. Like he got into year four. I don't know. I'm sympathetic, but I also think like this is what you do. And also still trading for Devontae Adams is what you do. If you are so all in, you go to the bottom, the Jets are used to the bottom that's that happens

that's not even worse than being in the middle so organizationally fine we'll see how it turns out this game Garrett Wilson I mean it was pretty messy but fantasy wise he still ended up with 30 points in a PPR league really outstanding and you watch them and you feel like there's a lot more there there's not going to be 50 point you feel like there's a lot more there. There's not going to be 50-point games, but there could be a lot more there with Wilson if they could just ever get the timing right. We'll see what happens with Adams. I feel like the Jets are probably, you know, live in this game to say the least, two and

a half point underdog. Buffalo, it's pretty concerning. It's the combination, Matthew, I think, of the wide receiver talent point that you alluded to that we've talked about a lot, that Buffalo here we've been talking about every day all offseason. But after that, it comes down to usage. And I'd point anybody to Warren Sharpe's show yesterday on what the Bills are doing wrong when it comes to usage. Basically, he pointed out they're throwing the ball deep outside the numbers

more than they did with Brian Dable here. For all the talk about two deep safeties and how NFL defensive strategy has changed, at least in the last couple of games, the Bills don't seem to really care. It's kind of Allen on the loose. And 9 for 30 is a stat line not seen in the NFL for more than 30 years, literally. Like, that's insane. Not just Buffalo.

I mean, the whole league. And that's what happened last week in Houston, a team that Minnesota carved up. And the Bills had come off Baltimore. And Baltimore has this great reputation. But since and before, they were getting thrown on easily. So what is it? I think what it has to be, it comes down, it comes back to Dalton Kincaid for me, if there's one guy in the passing attack, but he's capped by Dawson Knox's existence, who the bills want to have on the field because they want to run the ball because they don't have digs, and they can't throw it, and I think it's all just kind of a mess.

The Jets are going to be beatable. Maybe you score 20 points and win this game. The Jets might say the same thing, but it is coming to fruition, the concerns about the Bills' talent on offense, because since the 3-0 start, when everybody couldn't help but say they were the best team in the NFL, it's been gross. Sorry about the video.

We switched sides on the video. My thing glitched, and then I was on your other side. But maybe we should do that halfway through every show. You want me to say all that again? Change it up. No, actually, I think you were fine. I just, for some some reason popped out and popped back in so here i am uh but to your point about buffalo yeah there's a lot of i told you so

when it comes to this for both you and i like hey guys i mean you just curtis samuel was somebody that you know they didn't seem like they uh what carolina didn't seem like they made a lot of or not carolina washington uh didn't seem like they made a lot of effort to keep and wasn't all that expensive probably for a reason. And, oh, well, he'll just be different here is, is the thing that always concerns me when I hear it from front offices. Well, you know, if this guy just had this, then he would have been great. So that's all he really needed. Well, not always the case. So trying to kind of money ball, the wide receiver position didn't really hit for them. And you're really seeing it. But I also think too, that you do have to look at the offensive

coordinator as well. And Joe Brady and look at his previous past where he was the guy calling the shots when Sam Darnold started off hot, I believe. Is that right? Yeah, I think it's 2021. And then other teams figured it out. Darnold fell off the map. And there was Joe Brady, who's been talked about as a genius since he was at LSU, where Joe Burrow was throwing to Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. That seems I think I could be a genius at that point as well.

And I also want to just point to Brian Dable as well. This dude is good at his job, Brian Dable. He has Daniel Jones playing pretty well. He got to the playoffs with Daniel Jones. He's found ways to work that. Last year, kind of squeezed some wins out of Tommy DeVito, that guy's not easy to replace. And this is in a lot of ways why teams want to hire offensive coaches. Because if you hire Kevin O'Connell and someone hires his offensive coordinator, you'll get someone else to help him with the game plan. But you're going to still have the same system, the same play caller with Kevin O'Connell year after year. And I think that that's something that with Sean McDermott, it doesn't feel like he's ever found that next Brian Dable after he was so good at taking Josh Allen to the next level.

Yep, I agree. And one added layer of complexity in trying to forecast this stuff is what does the coach's pedigree, how predictive is it? And like Brady out of LSU, well, how could you lose? But maybe he was really deserving of the credit. That was like the best college offense ever. So he's probably not completely devoid of credit. D Dable when he was hired here and this is the bills mostly on the heels of 17 years in a row without even being good once is like well what has he ever done he was a quarterback coach in New England but did they need him like does he deserve credit for what that was and he went to Alabama he'd never run

a good offense so what's your bet and it turned out he adopted a lot of sort of kind of maybe obvious, but still not often utilized concepts. That's pre-snap motion and play action and just ended up making it really hum with Josh Allen. And when the Bills fired Ken Dorsey last year, they pretty much got hot. Like they only lost one more game. That was a 37-31 or 37-34 overtime loss to Philadelphia and went from six and six to the two seed with Brady at the helm. But every data analyst would tell you they were less efficient offensively despite that. And so I talked to Scott Barrett and lots of people over the course of the summer that were not really optimistic for the Bills

and the combination of sort of talent in the room and what Brady kind of wants to do. That Carolina team had DJ Moore, and I think we think he's really good, but they didn't want to really use him like that. Well, is that the quarterback? Is that the player? Is that the coach? Sometimes it's really hard to know, but I wasn't especially optimistic for what this

was going to be through three games. They looked perfect. Everything they said they wanted to do. The bills was working, throwing the ball to different guys. Everybody eats. You know, I've had some fun on WGR with everybody snacks. And Sunday it was everybody starves. Like, no, Stefan digs through five weeks last year, numbers wise,

about the same as their entire wide receiver room so far through five weeks. Yeah. I mean, if you take a bunch of shots at guys and hope that somebody emerges, if you are the green Bay Packers and Jaden Reed emerges, you feel like you're in great shape. Look, we've got a star receiver now,

but if somebody doesn't, then what do you do? There's nothing that you can really turn to. And I was thinking about, well, maybe Devante Adams becomes more of a desperate play for Buffalo here because every year that you exist with Josh Allen on your football team is a win now Superbowl. There's no such things as windows when you have Josh Allen. But I was also thinking about how for so long,

Tom Brady would have like Troy Brown or Dante Stallworth or Jabbar Gaffney or something and he would make them good and he'd win and everything and we'd say oh you receivers who needs them there there was this whole like oh wow you know how many Super Bowls the Owens and Moss have huh it's better to have a bunch of decent receivers but I think that Tom Brady and that group made everybody so good. They were so far above every other quarterback that it was significant. Whereas Josh Allen and even Patrick Mahomes, to some extent now, as we're seeing, they're not so far ahead of the curve. They're not so far ahead of everybody else that the supporting casts are kind of ruling the day. That's at least how I felt this season. And Sam Darnold is maybe an influence here,

but supporting casts have always been a major thing as far as how successful your quarterback is. I just feel like with so many complex defenses, I think defenses have gotten way better over the last couple of years that having a guy who can win one-on-one anytime, get just to Jefferson the football, win a game, that is more valuable than ever to have that along with pass protection, along with the play callers who have to stay ahead of the game constantly. Everything around that quarterback, even when he's great. I just think that's the environment that we have right now. One of my most memorable interactions with somebody who analyzes a lot of this stuff so closely was last year, no, two years ago now with Eric Eager, who I know you know and has since left Sumer Sports to go to the Carolina Panthers. And he did a study on, this is really more for the playoffs. Most of these teams with the great quarterbacks are going to the playoffs.

I think the floor for the bills this year was nine or 10 wins. And there are usually the seven seeds have really been terrible so far since they've added to the playoffs. Like those that's the floor. I think I still think that the Bills are still a decided division favorite even with these problems Eric's study was how valuable wide receiver two is to success in the playoffs this was on the heels of T Higgins with the Bengals going to the Super Bowl and the Rams that year with Beckham to go with Cooper Cup who had a historic season and really just like doesn't seem didn't last year seem to apply to the Chiefs but the Bills or the Ravens the teams they beat didn't have that either last year Philadelphia has had that of course San Francisco has had that Dallas doesn't I mean every year is different but

for the Bills to think Super Bowl right now it it's tough because I think that's such an important piece. Eric's logic was around how the teams you're playing are better, and they've studied you all year. And we did see with Diggs, his production really fall off after the midpoint of the last two seasons. And so not entirely a coincidence with different coordinators. So I tend to think the teams that are set up at wide receiver two are in the best position. And some of the best teams in the league don't really have that. And it might not be something most people would think of as a problem.

It does also, like in terms of the Ravens or, I don't know, I mean, Pittsburgh is a tough one, but these teams that might be in on Devante Adams, I mean, that could be Buffalo. I mean, I think that could be a huge change to their outlook if they did get that kind of, if you will, alpha receiver one. Well, I mean, if I'm Buffalo, I am concerned about the New York Jets potentially getting davante adams because as much of a tire fire as that entire team seems like right now if garrett wilson is wide receiver two and he and rogers are starting to get on the same page that might be a proposition uh for them but i mean i think with with buffalo they needed shir, they needed Coleman, they needed somebody to kind of emerge

and then everybody else to slot in after that. And it just hasn't happened. And the question is, will it happen? I think that the middle part of the season, actually not an opinion, but more of something that was also studied is what part of the season is most predictive to what you're going to be at the end. And it was actually kind of the middle part of the season. That makes sense, right? At the end, there's people sitting starters sometimes or injuries or whatever. In the beginning, everybody's figuring each other out. But the kind of middle six games of the season will tell you how good you really are.

And I am curious to see how Buffalo adapts their offense. Or if you have a coordinator who just kind of keeps running it over and over again, because that's the true sign. And even with Washington, I'm waiting. Cliff Kingsbury, are you going to adapt or are teams going to figure some things out? Although if you saw Jane Daniels throw on third and 13 the other day, I don't know if there's a figuring out quite of that. I know, you know what throw i'm talking

about right instant pressure third long he just rolls out of it launches the ball down the field that's very exciting um speaking of very exciting nfc matchup on thursday night football san francisco and seattle let us take a look at our pickums for this this game, which are over on Underdog Fantasy, the presenter of this show and the easiest place to play fantasy sports probably in the entire world. Also the fastest growing app in the industry. And we're going to get to our pick-ems here, which are incredibly easy and fun to play. You just jump onto that app, pick between two and eight stats of your favorite players, and you can win 20 times your money by going five for five. Also with the MLB playoffs going on the NHL season starting. Okay. Let's say you missed the

beginning of the season. All you didn't get your fantasy draft. Oh, that's no problem. You can still do that over at underdog fantasy and playoffs. There's drafts every day and tons of pickums over there. So lots to do on that underdog app. Sign up with the promo code PURPLE. It helps the show, and I appreciate it. And you also get to claim your special pick and first-time deposit offer up to $1,000 in bonus cash. Must be 18 or older. Terms apply.

Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.com. I probably should make the joke about being concerned with your play after last week where you said falcons you know they're probably just not going to throw very successfully and kirk goes for 509 can't can't predict ball mike so we just go back to it and try again yeah i was preparing to say so i've started doing these this year because of this with you. And the first two weeks, I mean, oh, it was Xavier Worthy who scored a touchdown in that game, but didn't have the catches and just like really tough beats.

Last week, not so much. I mean, part of my argument was they have not figured out. I mean, he was coming off zeros in my defense, but they've not figured out what to do with Kyle Pitts, primetime Kirk. I'll just lean against the Falcons. And the second play of the game busted me on the pick'em. Literally, the second play of the game was like a 30-yard pass to Kyle Pitts, like I'm dead.

So at least I didn't have to stay up. But this week, I think I would say other times, even last week, this is not something that is predictive. This is a good thing to know. Sometimes you make these picks and they feel easy. This makes sense. I got it. I know this.

I know this. This is an easy one. And sometimes they don't, but I'm not sure if your win rate really changes when it's like that, whether that's picking games or player props or anything. San Francisco and Seattle, especially the Niners, are teams that you just, it could be anybody. San Francisco on a given game, it could be Ayuk last week. It could be Debo last year.

It could be Kittle. I mean, of course, it could have been McCaffrey. Here it's Jordan Mason it's really hard to know maybe especially on a short week who the guy is going to be so and the Seahawks might be sort of a poor man's version of that with Metcalf and Lockett and JSN and two running backs what kind of game is it I'm I feel like really in the dark about what to specifically expect here, but this is where I ended up. Looking at the hires and lowers, looking at some of the prop bets, I started with Kittle. Now, this is me remembering a huge game he had against the Seahawks last year, the

year before on the road. I bet against him last week because he wasn't practicing and maybe he's somebody who's just not a hundred percent. He had a good game last week. He's limited again this week. I'm going to go the other way. I'm going higher 49 and a half receiving yards for George Kittle. It's not a lock. I mean, they have everybody back except McCaffrey, but he's the best tight end in the NFL still, I think, and I'm going to do that. Likewise, on the Niners, I'm going lower 2.5 receptions for Jawan Jennings. I've got a game here where their main guys are all contributing, and while Jennings has been capable of huge games when guys are out, I'll take lower two and a half.

The prop bets are even a little bit more of a lean in that direction. So I took my cue from that. Seattle, Tyler Lockett, he's had good primetime games. He had a good game last week. The higher is 45 and a half. He's kind of a big play player, big ADOT player. So I think three for 60 is kind of in the range of outcomes where if that happens, you win easily on that particular play. And then I'm going, because I've done four every week.

I do four for 10X. Charbonnet, higher, 13.5 receiving yards is my play there. He has fit into a role even with Walker healthy, and I think they like him in that kind of a dump-off, third-down-back kind of role. So one good play gets you there, two for sure. So that's where I'm at. Higher on Kittle, lower on Jennings, higher on Lockett, higher on Charbonnet.

I left the quarterbacks out to double up that kind of payout. You could do the same thing, especially if you're leaning hires and add a Gino or a Purdy and win even more if you're right. I definitely like hires in this game because I just don't think Seattle seems to fully understand how to cover people. We've seen that the last couple of weeks and their coach was what the defensive coordinator of Michigan, right? I mean, I'm not saying that that means he can't do it in the NFL, but it's a very different game. And the adjustments that teams make on a week to week basis are so much different in the NFL than they are college. So there may be an adjustment period he's going through right now of everybody has tape on you. And if Kyle Shanahan has tape on you and has seen some tells, it could be majorly problematic for Seattle. I am going to add to that Kyle use check.

One of the last remaining of a dying breed of fullbacks. His higher number here is only 7.5 receiving yards. I need one catch from Kyle Juszczyk. Just one time that Kyle Juszczyk gets a little check down, a Kyle Juszczyk down, if you will, one designed play. They still love this guy. I'm going to give that. Okay. I might like a touchdown more.

The touchdown one. You think so? It's kind of scared me off for those guys. Once you get down the list and they're like, Chenault is somebody like 9X for a touchdown. I feel like I'm ruining my combo if I do that. But what a huge win if you're right. But sure.

I was thinking along the same lines of jake bobo who's just a guy whose name is jake bobo so why would you not pick him and it is uh 9.37 x for a touchdown for him but there's just no there's no way right there's there's some way but i'm not dog enough the nfc so we talked about this on wgr yesterday how like for years it's been the NFC is second rate. And looking at it, I think it can be true in terms of the top teams. No offense to Minnesota fans. Maybe they are a top team. Their record suggests it.

But right now, if you did the playoff field, no San Francisco, no Philadelphia, no Dallas. Wow. So there's at least more depth. And tomorrow night's game is really good. I mean, Seattle wants to show it's legit. Maybe they're not home. I like that they're at home for this game.

San Francisco is coming off a loss to Arizona at home, two and three. So pretty good stakes for Thursday night this week. And there's been only division games so far since week two Buffalo Miami on prime there's a break from that in the middle and then it gets back to that later that is by design oh I did not realize that you know that the Jaguars and Titans are in the same division so I don't know why I haven't seen them pop up on Thursday night they're kind of brewing that that that meme. But speaking of fun, this was a lot of fun,

Mike, as always the deep end fantasy football show for people to check out more of your fantasy analysis, a man with a bobble head and an oxygen container for some reason that your bobble head is holding. It's wine. It's a lot, but it's like I told you earlier,

anybody who knows me could not would know. I cannot lift a bottle this, this big as most fantasy players probably cannot. So anyway, careful. Thanks for, again, as always for your time and we'll catch everybody later.

Thanks.