Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Is Jordan Addison going to save your fantasy team?

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

Matthew Coller and Mike Schopp talk about Jordan Addison emerging as a star and other players that could be difference makers down the stretch in fantasy playoffs. Plus, will the Bills help out the Vikings and beat the Lions? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

🎵 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Mike Shope. And it's the fantasy football Shope here once again, as we've been doing all year long. And I am reeling from a Jaden Reed performance for the ages in which he caught no passes and a huge offensive game. So I I'm living the life here, Mike. Oh, by the way, the show presented by underdog fantasy. You want to use the promo code purple, support the show and play along with us on underdog, but I'm mad. I'm just that I was, I was all about, you know, Hey, maybe I'm going to prove Mike wrong about this fantasy draft. I just did on underdog. I'm going to prove Mike wrong about this fantasy draft I just did on Underdog.

I'm going to show him. He's so down on me. And then Jaden Reed does absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing. So how are you? How was your fantasy week? It was rough because while I do have a lot of Jamar Chase, I had him in the wrong sort of slots

where it's dynasty teams that didn't need to win. But on underdog, I have one, you know, one success story was getting, what was it, 40 some points out of him? Not that high, 35 points out of him on underdog. And running down one of these chow chow the pug to the mini schnauzer one of these uh tournaments to sneak in but um i'm not supposed to be able to tell you that because if you're cool you don't even know you just sort of like ah whatever happens happens and we'll look at it at week 17 and see how much we won or lost but But otherwise, it was pretty bad. I mean, I had to fade Chase Brown in one.

That didn't work out. I had to fade Lamb in one. That didn't work out. I mean, I thought the week before Thanksgiving, Lamb just sort of, it's yuck, yuck, yuck, yucks on the sideline the second half against the Giants. But this game, sort of he sort of races with Chase, I thought, might have been happening there.

These teams that are bad, there are eight teams. A quarter of the league is 3-10 or 2-11. And in terms of fantasy, we talk about underdog, which is best ball. But in home leagues, in redraft, you have to figure, like Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase just broke a record on underdog for, in the best ball mania, the big 674,674 teams. Okay, like that's insane. At $25 each, Chase just broke the advance rate record.

50.6% of teams that drafted him made it. That means they were top two in their league. And just the spike weeks were so high, including Monday night, that he pushed you through. Great. You know, in most of casual players' fantasy leagues, you know, it's week to week, and it's a different ball game than uh than best ball so it's been a tough year for me we've talked about it consistently I just didn't draft the

the older running backs like as a rule Barkley, Jacobs, Mixon, Connor, Kamara, Henry and we are still we're at a week 15 Matthew and none of these guys is injured like they've except for Mixon nobody's missed a snap almost and you're buried if your strategy was wide receivers you know Marvin Harrison DJ Moore even Garrett Wilson guys like that and then you sort of passed on intentionally, I think smartly, those older running backs, but look what happened. You never know. No, you don't.

And that's what makes this so difficult and also fun to talk about. But the older running back thing is a theme on the show. We've gone back to a number of times because it is right. Aaron Jones. And it's so fascinating how they've performed. And something that I was thinking about is that a lot of them went from, and this isn't true of Aaron Jones, but a lot of them went from incompetent teams to competent teams where the giants, if they had Saquon Barkley, they don't have any more wins. They're terrible. And the same thing goes for someone like Josh Jacobs, where he's not doing what he's doing

now. If he's playing for the Las Vegas Raiders, they've just got nothing on the offensive side. And I was thinking about one, this might be just a special group of players, but it also might be that running backs are dictated a lot by what you have, but if you have good stuff around them, they can be super valuable to you and super dangerous. You can maximize every single thing that's there. It's sort of like having a big armed quarterback with Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, where if you can give them a scheme, a running game, a passing game, I think passing games actually do affect the running back

and how they can play, that you can get every ounce out of what's there. And if you're getting every ounce out of Saquon Barkley, you have history. Well, that's right. I mean, if we're talking about real football, take Minnesota. What is their record? Let's say Ty Chandler, right? He's kind of been ostracized. Or use Akers if you want, who they got into the season.

If, I want to say replacement level, but that's not even the term because like Jacobs is below replacement level in terms of efficiency. Like you can't even go by that. If you had somebody that you thought was bad or could even sort of demonstrate statistically was bad in place of Jones what is Minnesota's record I mean they're 11 and 2 are they 10 and 3 are they 11 and 2 they're not better yeah I mean there's there's been a few games where he's been really excellent but we did see this from last year from Alexander Madison what they looked like with a completely mid uh running game or worse and had this been

the passing game and they weren't dealing with Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullins and everything else then they probably would have been able to survive that at the same time that has to go away when we get to a certain level like Jones is 10th in the league in rushing and I think maybe 10th or 12th in yards per carry if we're getting to Saququon Barkley, that is winning games if you're getting five and a half plus yards of carry. Sure. A.J. Brown isn't getting the ball. He's starting to bark about it. And if the Eagles had Kenneth Gainwell as their number one running back and threw the ball to A.J. Brown instead, would they be different?

Record-wise, the Bills have become a team for more than a year now that sort of starts with the run. And James Cook has had success. And then they went into a game on Sunday where they got behind and threw the ball like crazy. What happened? Josh Allen literally broke the record for most fantasy points for a quarterback ever in a game. 51. Three touchdowns passing, three touchdowns rushing. Maybe the Bills are a little bit of an exception because of Allen and what he can do running, but Cook did nothing. They only scored 42 points without a turnover or a takeaway.

What can you say? So I think the best, if I had to make this argument, like, well, you know, in a court of law or something, like talking about the running backs, I would still argue, and I kind of have the whole time that Henry isn't helping the Ravens. Like they have this, you spend the money, you have this obligation to use the player, and they do, except when they get down, which is very rare because they're so good, you know, overall. And, you know, he's having a great season and people are talking,

he's second to Barkley now in Offensive Player of the Year, that kind of thing. But look at last year. I mean, they were a much better team. Defense is different. I grant you that. They were a much better team with Gus Edwards. You know, like, and sort of why is that?

They're always, it's what makes football so interesting is they're always different variables. But I don't want to be a team that has any obligation to hand the ball off to anybody. And the Eagles really don't, except for the fact that they could try to get Barkley the record here in the regular season. In the playoffs, that won't matter. And it's one thing, as we've talked about the duration of our chats together here on your show that I've loved about Minnesota. Because whatever Jones is, whatever Madison was, they have the coach goes by a certain sort of ideology,

and the running back is a, you know, sort of a supporting actor in their offense. And that I think is ideal. I definitely agree with that. If you have to build an offense around a running back where you feel like he has to be the centerpiece, we even saw that with Delvin cook that has a ceiling on it. And we really saw in 2019 against San Francisco where everything was built off that run game. And then San Francisco stopped it and they looked around and said, what do we do now? There's no, what do we do now for the Vikings offense? They're better when they run the ball. There is very much a thing of down and distance.

If you can get to second down and four and you can run play actions, play actions are decidedly better than straight drop back statistically just ask sam darnold who's got 140 quarterback rating when he runs play action there is something to the reputation of the running back for how the team reacts to that i think that's real that it makes the passing game better and then there's also just explosives and successful plays i mean if you have a running back who is getting 55 or 60% of his carries are successful plays, which is where you get a certain percentage of the first down or get a first down, that's really valuable to not have to do anything like stressful.

Your offensive line loves run blocking. You get six, seven yards. You're in a favorable passing situation. You can run or pass you've got the ball all day which teams have done against the Vikings when they've run and then with Saquon explosive plays if you get what there's there's something about the odds if you get a single explosive play on a drive what are your chances to score if Saquon gets a 20 yard run you go from the 25 yard line you're almost in field goal position with the way that people kick these days. So I think having one of those guys is clearly great for your offense, but I do agree with you as long as you don't overdo it with them

because then you're hurting your potential chance to be the most efficient version of yourself. And, yeah, A. yeah aj brown needs the football like he they need to run through it with him uh debo samuel they need these guys do need to get the football because they are the most effective players on the field and they're both pissed i mean in philadelphia is 11 and 2 or whatever they are and like aj brown is like sort of publicly pissed because you know whatever the explosive plays point is huge. I mean, that's Barkley.

Henry, against Buffalo, he got through the line and went for 87. That happens. But he's more just sort of like the gradual decline of your defense in a game. But the best runner on that team is Jackson. And he doesn't really run anymore, which I think is a problem. And I've been saying for two years about them, like he needs to go the playoffs. There it was, here's the AFC championship. And in the second play of the game, he slid. I mean, just like, no, that that's not for all the credit they get as an organization. Maybe it's Lamar, but

I mean, come on, like those are your explosive plays. And so Barkley affords the Eagles that full credit to him because Hertz is not Jackson. I mean, Hertz is not running. He's not a running threat on first and 10. It's only in desperation, like most of the quarterbacks in the NFL, but goal line. Think about like Barkley in back to fantasy is having close to a historic season. I mean, he could set the rushing record. He catches the ball. You're getting these big play touchdowns.

And again, last week against Carolina, at least twice he was tackled at the one. I mean, that has happened more than 10 times this year. And then what they did on the first one of those is they gave the ball to Barkley on first and goal from the one and second and goal from the one. And he got stopped both times and then Hurts was like, all right, touchdown. Easy, easy game. So Barkley could be having an even bigger season. You know, here on Underdog and in the best ball tournaments, we go to week 15 and that is the end of the regular season into the playoffs. I mentioned

Jamar Chase for this Barkley is close if you were playing in best ball mania or any of these other the chow chows the pugs the dalmatians you know etc you're playing and you look if you made it to this week you now you have sort of all the league winners or the top two or three in each league go into the tournament which means a lot of the teams you're playing against will have the same players as you do depending on who they are and Barkley and Chase are clearly the two that you will see the most often which makes it interesting Matthew for this, because if you have a Barkley team, but not much depth, not many other guys that have been doing anything, starting at running back or even overall, you're in trouble

because there are other Barkley teams now that you're going to play against, and you'd better beat them everywhere else on your roster. You need the good game from Barkley to beat the other guys, which could be only half the pod. And then you have to win with the guys. You kind of want, as they say, the worst teams possible to make it to this point, which is so counterintuitive, but that's what the game is when it comes to these best ball tournaments on underdog. It's weird. It's very random and you can't really plan for

a lot of what's going to happen, but you want to get to this point, but then you also want to have those, you know, kind of deep dive, uh, long shot players. I mean, I got a list for you, um, that maybe we'll be able to take you over the top of the Barkley teams or the other team, you know, whoever it is, mix in the guys that have the higher advance rates. Those dog names, by the way, are the names of the tournaments. Just so you didn't think that Mike lost his mind in the middle of the conversation, which is always possible. The mini Schnauzer seven.

I didn't even have to mention the mini Schnauzer seven. I mean, everybody's talking about it uh but uh you know i was thinking so i was let me tie this into something i wanted to discuss with you about okay so everybody who gets deep in these tournaments they're going to have a lot of the same players who have exploded this year so who's going to be your difference makers down the stretch and i think the vikings might have one, which is Jordan Addison. There was a lot of discussion going into the season about, well, should you draft Jordan Addison in fantasy?

And is he going to miss games because of a court date or a suspension, which we're just, you know, I figured that wouldn't be resolved within one year and it has not been. And then early in the season, it's does Darnold trust him? Is he on the same page with him? He's got a couple of ankle injuries. He posted something on Instagram. His dad is tweeting like what's going on here. And the last couple of weeks, this has been superstar type of performance from Jordan Addison. It's and it ain't cheap yards. It's been in the biggest moments, the biggest games, tracking the football down the fields, great route running in the red zone. And I think the red zone from a fantasy perspective and for a

Vikings offense perspective, him emerging as a trusted target in the red zone last week, two different times they're down there. The whole Falcons defense is just on Justin Jefferson. And here's Addison wide open for touchdowns. That seems really significant as a development for the Vikings offense because they need to score in the red zone and they can't run it in. And also for anybody who believed in drafting Jordan Addison to kind of ride that one out

and believe that eventually it would come to fruition because he has looked like a superstar receiver himself the last few weeks. Yes. So in a fantasy context or specifically an underdog best ball mania context, you know, Addison's advance rate is over

22%. So you're playing in a group of 12. If everybody does everything sort of at random by projections, your advance rate should be what? 8.5% or actually 17 because the top two make it. So 17%,

right? If everybody just sort of goes by the list and there's no thinking two make it. So 17%, right? If everybody just sort of goes by the list and there's no thinking put into it. Addison's at 22 for this tournament. It's good. It was everything you said, these later spike week kind of games after a series of games where it wasn't there or was even injured I mean I don't know but you had some zeros in there too it's above average I mean a guy like

Tyreek Hill is lower than that uh Marvin Harrison who I mentioned late first round early second round is eight percent so everything being, half the teams that drafted Marvin Harrison got there and they probably did so some other way. You have had almost no spike weeks with him and generally a disappointing season. And he was way more expensive. He was like early second, like I said, where's Addison going?

Sixth, seventh round. You're also trying to correlate. I mean, it's way late for this analysis now because it's you know once you get to week one there's it's out of your control but minnesota green bay in week 17 the matchups the schedule and you get sam darnold from the sky who is able to feed all these guys you know almost like cousins did statistically wise anyway and make it work. So very promising for Minnesota. He could be somebody you want here going forward, but the key to winning these things is going to be the guys that nobody has

that somehow have these big weeks. Often that's tight ends, which is, it's sickening, right? Because there's just nothing we could figure out back in August, let alone April or May or whenever this tournament starts, that would tell you the answer. But, you know, it all could come down to Johnny Muntz. Your boy, Johnny, he could be the guy you need. Yeah, Josh Oliver has actually become a legitimate target for them.

Yes. I think they kind of figured out a little bit during TJ Hawkinson's absence that Josh Oliver is someone that they can really trust in the passing game. Let's continue on that road though of who do you, and real, real quick, Kyle Pitts, Kyle Pitts is not, he's just not it. He's just not, I having seen him now in person, watch the game back on tape. It's just not it he's just not i having seen him now in person watch the game back on tape it's just not it's just not a thing uh so that's future carolina panther uh kyle pitts he'll be with somebody else and he'll have a breakout or something sometime but it's not

going to be that's just not happening that's's tough. I mean, he had an injury. I mean, he went to – he's almost like a quarterback in this way where you go to the wrong organization and they don't know what to do with you. They're putting him out wide against corners. And we could have known from his college days, like, that's not going to be as good as – that's not going to be the ceiling as a tight end would be. But he needed to go to a team like the Vikings where they had the wide receiver support and then you could have this tight end

just run roughshod over everybody and not have to worry about playing them out wide. But the injury two years ago, and they downplayed it. Last summer, it was not a big story, but then the season went by and nothing really happened either. And it's like, yeah, he was hurt all year. And that's what Pitt said too. Even this year at training camp, if you remember, he didn't look good to happened either. And he's like, yeah, he was hurt all year. And that's what Pitt said too. Even this year at training camp, if you remember, he didn't look good to people either.

A couple of games, but that's a really – it reminds me of Trey Lance or somebody like a quarterback where just they don't get the right fit, the right opportunity, and then you start to ask yourself if he was ever good. He was incredible at Florida, but I mean, fifth overall, one spot ahead of Chase in that draft. Yikes. It's crazy.

It's great. It's just a different game, and some guys can't play this game. And sometimes injuries, if you take someone who has to be an absolute physical freak to be good in the NFL, and then they get injured, and they're a lot less freakish, and everybody else is freakish that's covering them. But he had a throw from cousins that hit him. One of my friends says if it was a spear, it would have killed him right dead center of the chest and just couldn't catch it. Like, I don't know. Maybe the game is moving too fast for him.

He was trying to block Dallas Turner on the edge, just got pushed right back into the running back. It's just not there. Anyway, how about some of the players that come to mind for you? Maybe we can also look at the schedule for this week as well and who these players are playing as things get hot in the fantasy universe down the stretch here. Who's going to determine whether people win or lose their leagues? Like i say that to you who comes to mind first well to pivot to most home leagues casual not not underdog best ball where i basically made the case a couple of times that it's not the whoever it is you're thinking of it's not him it's gonna it's gonna be somebody so random here but let's let's get normal it is you're thinking of. It's not him. It's going to it's going to be somebody so random here.

But let's let's get normal. So then you're back to Barkley and Chase. You're looking for the teams with the great schedule. I love the Buccaneers for this question. You know, like Bucky Irving is hurt now and he's iffy for this week. Otherwise, wheels up on all of it. They do have, I think, the Chargers this week, but then it's Dallas and Carolina. And I mean, Mayfield is going for 300 a week. So Evan's going for the thousand yards,

11 years in a row. Kate Otten at tight end, even McMillan is coming on there. So I love them. Really, I think you really have to try to at least consider team incentives and player incentives. The Evans point, this is Barkley for the rushing record. You've also got every year you have which teams are looking maybe to clinch and then rest guys, although that usually doesn't happen by 17. Hopefully your league isn't competing in week 18 which is largely a throwaway but you know you have that point and this year especially Matt you've got a quarter of the league eight teams are three and ten or two and eleven and it's not it doesn't even necessarily have to be about

tanking it's more just sort of like what Brees Hall for the Jets. So here was a guy, first round pick. You'll love him. I mean, you're trying to find a running back. You don't want Barkley because here's Brees Hall, who's like four or five years younger. So this is better. And yeah, well, it was okay. And now he's hurt.

And who even knows if he's going to play anymore because their team is so far out of it. And that makes him tough for this. So you end up, you know, a good fantasy player because their team is so far out of it. And that makes him tough for this. So you end up, you know, a good fantasy player is all the time, every week, you know, scrounging through waivers, trying to find the backups, the Braylon Allens, if you will, of the league. And you're sacrificing a backup quarterback or a backup tight end or a wide receiver five just to have these guys just in case.

And that could be Braylon Allen or even Isaiah Davis with the Jets. That could be Kamani Vidal with the Chargers. You know, these guys that could even be Kendra Miller with the Saints who got a little bit of work. Finally, his old coach hated him and banished him to IR when he wasn't hurt. Then he comes in, ran for a touchdown, you know, with one of those sort of pile plays from the six-yard line. Kamara's older. They're dead. Carr is hurt now.

Who wins your league for you? I mean, I'm sort of an odds player. I'll usually lean on projections and not think that I know more than the crowd, so I kind of play like that. But if you're alive, you still want to be looking for the players I mentioned and guys like them. Who knows what's going to happen in San Francisco? I mean, they play tomorrow night, and they have already lost McCaffrey and Mason. They might not have Isaac Garendo for this game. That remains to be determined.

We're talking on Wednesday morning. Those are two West Coast teams, the 49ers and Rams. It could be well into the day before we know anything about their status. And that leaves you with Patrick Taylor or Abanaconda, who they got from the Jets. You don't want to get

caught napping when it comes to these backup running backs because every year you have the injuries point, and then especially this year, you have teams, maybe on both ends of the spectrum who might let up and i'm just just in general with san francisco who are we throwing to these days uh debo samuel's not happy maybe if you got in on ricky pierce all and i think i could say this now that he's fine after he got shot uh you did a good job i mean because he was the you had no idea he was going to get pushed into the limelight here but he kind of is pushed into the limelight because of the injury to brandon iuk and it just seems that

there's if i had to guess probably just a lot of attention on Debo Samuel from other teams' defenses, knowing he's kind of it. So suddenly someone like Ricky Pearsall, welcome to the fantasy party, my friends. You know what was really interesting to me is young players, of course, as we go down the stretch, because that was always in the offseason a great discussion. Like, what do we really think that Caleb Williams is going to do or that Jaden Daniels is going to do. And Caleb Williams playing the Vikings again this week. And what a, what a enigma that is walking out of Chicago. I said to a friend, as we were having dinner after the game, I was like, man, Caleb Williams is just going to be a problem for the Vikings for a lot

of years. I mean, look at that guy. So explosive. And he was clutching that game against the Vikings for a lot of years. I mean, look at that guy. He's so explosive and he was clutching that game against the Vikings. He made plays and yeah, he's got some problems, but look at him. And then last week, what did he have? Like two yards at halftime or something? I mean, I just, it's so hard to predict these guys. Jaden Daniels is setting the world on fire and then he dips and then now he's coming back. But I also think if you were the person that got in on somebody like Jaden Daniels early, that you have a chance here for him to get hot going down the stretch and be the reason that you win.

Absolutely. No, in terms of quarterback, Daniels is almost a must start. It doesn't feel like it. I mean, they've had some losses, but they're 91% at New York Times to make the playoffs. So they'll, they'll keep going. Um, Chicago here's Williams. What's odd about him for me is he has not thrown an interception since week eight, but there's just like so little production. Odunze is the guy I want on the bears. I mentioned Jalen McMillan with the bucks, you know, quarterback is kind of, you get what you get.

I mean, you're not trying to force anything there. If you're in the fantasy playoffs this week, you do not want to start Caleb Williams at Minnesota. You shouldn't have to do that. I mean, you'd rather start Bo Nix against the Colts. You'd rather start Richardson against the Broncos. I mean, you'd rather start lots of guys. Nobody's on by anymore. You shouldn't really have to worry.

You've got the Geno Smiths and the Staffords of the world too, that are putting up pretty good numbers. So I'd be off Williams. Uh, but the receivers like, yeah, I mean, to, to your point at the beginning of what we've talked about a lot and sort of what you wanted to get from underdog drafts, you want Jalen McMillan right now no Godwin two touchdowns last week against the Raiders that team is hot I think you want Odunze I mean you can't necessarily affect this these are not guys well McMillan might be somebody you could pick up depending on your league but some of them won't be you just hope that you have that's what we were trying to do and that's what could still save me this year

in a year where I like many just avoided the older running backs is all right well if we made it to this point then hopefully we have those younger guys the running back sort of handcuffy guys that I mentioned earlier younger receivers too some are in tougher like Brian Thomas is somebody who really flashed or neighbors but they're both in like desperate team situations where who knows what those teams want to do. The Jags and the Giants, they're kind of vying for the first pick. Bowers is also, this is frustrating. He's also somebody for the Raiders. He also, though, is somebody who has a chance at some history when it comes to his stats.

So maybe you get away with it with him. But yeah, it goes all the way back to I'm thinking about how you started today with Jaden Reed and how he had a zero in that game against Detroit, which was super tilting because it was a high scoring game. And instead, you got Jacobs falling into the end zone three times. And that was tough. But that's still also a team that I don't want to give up on here. Watson had a game.

He's had a couple. And maybe you get away with it with Kraft or Dobbs or Wicks even at this point. Well, this is why we play. Because it's so fascinating and frustrating. It makes the victories. It makes, it makes the Tyler Conklin 20 yard reception for the pick them even better when you get it.

So there's a big football game that connects this as well, because I think that if you have a bunch of Detroit lions, you are extremely happy, not just from the whole season, but they don't have a defense anymore. They actually just shipped in an XFL team to play defense for them because so many players are injured. And that means there's going to be a lot of points there was against the Packers. This is why Dan Campbell was right to go for it on fourth down. I've got no defensive players left.

I have to go for this fourth down and make sure the other team doesn't get the ball back. Go to Buffalo. They just gave up a bunch of yards and points to the Rams. I mean, this one is just screaming shootout. And speaking of screaming, you'll hear the screaming from Minnesota, people cheering on the Buffalo Bills this week. This one seems like it's going to be 44 to 42 again. It just feels like the Lions are going to have to do everything they can to try to outscore Buffalo, and the Bills have the juice and the quarterback to be able to match them.

Can't wait. The total is 55, which is not 86, but it's also the highest in the NFL in two years, more than two years. I saw from Evan Abrams, Bill's Chiefs, Bill's again in 2022 was 55 and a half or something like that. That game went under. With, just so I say it, I mean, with totals, you've got to get touchdowns, not field goals.

And, you know, like the Rams-Bills game was unique almost in NFL history how you had no turnovers no sacks and 86 points there was a block punt which is like a turnover but still I think we know this about Detroit and I think I know this about Buffalo if we don't all know it is they both are kind of running teams first. They want to win up front. I think that'll be hard for the Bills. Last week for Allen was a game where he kind of did anything he wanted, and you can see what that looks like when they have the game script right. I mean, it's off the charts. He'll be the MVP of the league. Detroit usually gets what it wants up front on offense. And I would

think against the Bills, that would still be true. So I think the Lions will look like the Lions on offense, but that doesn't have to, you know, be a blowout or just, they've done it this year, a couple of times, 50 points, you know, they've done that, but the Bills are too good for that. They'll make it a game. I just wouldn't be shocked if this game is in the 20s, where teams are kicking field goals on fourth and seven. It's sort of like a ping pong game in that way. They played two years ago.

It was very much that game on Thanksgiving. So maybe that's sort of like two, it's a recency bias or something for me. But yeah, I mean, Detroit, what are you doing in fantasy? You're starting all of them. Gibbs, Montgomery, St. Brown, Laporta, probably. Tim Patrick, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick even. Like Patrick had two touchdowns against the Packers, I guess. Bills are trickier because it's Allen and it's Cook who did nothing against the Rams.

And Cooper, 14 targets against LA. That was a big jump for him. Shakir is a pretty safe floor. We'll see if the Bills have Kincaid this week. We'll find out later what his status is, but he's been bothered by a knee injury for a while. And you don't want to have to start him. I mean, the best game he's had this year is like 52 yards or something so yeah I think that's pretty it's a shorter list for Buffalo Amari Cooper with 14 targets last week is very relevant in this that

I think it probably takes wide receivers some time to get used to a new offense and a new quarterback and I'm thinking of the time where he caught a touchdown, but the guy's telling him where he's got to go before the play and things like that. I imagine by now as a pro, he is locked into that offense and locked in with Josh Allen. And that might be one of those moves that a front office makes in the middle of the season that we go like, Oh, that looks like a, it could be significant. And then it becomes absolutely huge for them.

And if you are a Cooper owner, then you, or if you're doing pick them or whatever, I mean, I, I just think that's a guy that Alan is showing trust in and is going to lean on. And he's just really good. He was held back by terrible Cleveland, but he was a, a one of top-notch receiver for a long time. If I may, so he had 240-some air yards last week. That's the most in the NFL all season by anybody. It was six catches, but that's what you get when you're throwing down the field. You and I have talked about this on and off the air. Eric Eager and his point about having the wide receiver two for the playoffs.

I sort of tripped upon this yesterday, just sort of as an aside, Matt. Like the top AFC, okay? NFC is quite different. The top receiver tandems you think of will not be in the playoffs, probably. Miami still could be. Adams and Wilson with the Jets, no. Chase and Higgins, no. Like, the teams that have that won't make it this year.

If you go down the list, I mean, a little bit disappointing, nobody in the NFL right now with four games left is between 40% and 60% to make the playoffs. It's kind of all set. Yep. A couple of division races in the NFC, but it's kind of all set already, which is a little bit sad. Buffalo, who's wide receiver one? It's a conversation. Kansas City, Pittsburgh has Pickens. Then what? Baltimore, leaving out the tight ends. Baltimore, Flowers, then what? Nico Collins, Tank Dell?

Chargers, McConkie, then what? Cortland Sutton, then what? This will be an interesting experiment to the question about the wide receiver too because nobody, arguably Khalil Shakir is the best of the whole conference in that way. So it's a weird year like that. I wonder what Eric would say, NFC, you've got the Eagles, you've got Minnesota. Um, that's not it. Like you've got teams Seattle right now with Metcalf and JSN where it's, it's really established one and two. So just a odd year like that, because I like the wide receiver two-point. I thought it was very solid.

The Bills have lost to Cincinnati in the playoffs when they didn't have anything. Gabe Davis wasn't T. Higgins. But this year, it might be kind of a way to, you can sort of sneak away from being subject to that theory. And I don't think anybody was really sure if Shakir could be more than just a, let's just dump it off to him and let him run like kind of Golden Tate was at times during his career. But you got to be more than that, I think, to be a real wide receiver too. And he's mostly shown that you've seen more than I have, but it seems that he's become a legitimate trusted target and they might have the best deal. I don't know. What is where she rice's status for Kansas city?

Is there a chance that he comes back? Probably not. No, he's, he's down, but Hollywood Brown. I mean, he he's somebody they're talking about him. Maybe even before the regular season is over, they need a couple more wins. And he's one of these guys, back to our conversation about the underdog tournaments, where, you know, if you have Barkley or Chase, great. Half the teams that have those guys got to the playoffs. That's how you got there. But now, those are not going to be the guys you need.

You're going to need the other guys that, hopefully, if you don't have those guys, they sort of dud in the playoffs somehow. Barkley has Pittsburgh this week, maybe, and then somebody else sneaks in. Two names I have for that that are just completely out of nowhere. If you made it to the best ball playoffs with them on your roster, one is Marquise Brown, who might be back here, I don't think this week for Kansas City, but, you know, 16-17. They have Houston and Pittsburgh the next two weeks. Houston, right? I think so. And so that's interesting.

And Michael Penix Jr. is another, because what is Atlanta waiting for? Four straight losses, no touchdown passes from Cousins in these four weeks, not one, in losing game scripts? I mean, it's that bad? You saw it last week. So Atlanta, which is not dead, maybe they're saying they won't, but maybe they get to Pennix.

I have one underdog team that I really like, and it has Mahomes on it, I think, so maybe I won't need it. But what you want is to get to week 17 and then have all your best players kind of flop. But, oh, Michael Penix steps in Atlanta and, you know, big game. That's how you win these things. I'm told. That's, yeah, right.

That's the fantasy story for the ages. You drafted Michael Penix with the last pick, just figuring maybe Kirk will get hurt. Or, hey, heck, Sam Darnold. We were talking about that. Hey, just pick Sam Darnold at the end of your draft and see what happens. And then he has the highest-rated quarterback game ever in Minnesota Vikings history against the Atlanta Falcons. So that may have worked out well for you.

If you took our advice back when J.J. McCarthy got hurt, which was, hey, take a swing on the last pick of your draft or whatever, right? In best ball, in best ball, right? I mean, redraft, it's been okay. It's been fine. It's been good. It's been good. But, you know, he's sort of a mid-starter in a 12-team, one-quarterback league. Best ball, though, oh my God, as soon as McCarthy got hurt, we all ran to ran to the you know to the bank and started drafting sam darnold everywhere at the bank where they have the draft at the bank uh so with wi-fi and you know in an approved state yeah you can't yeah you can every bank they actually they're marketing they they may need that you can do hopefully we

hopefully we get to run back to the bank here in about a month uh we'll see uh the panics thing uh it's just it was weird watching kirk because there was a lot of really good that happened there he found his receivers he made some accurate throws guys were open they moved the football they were on the field a lot he threw for a lot of yards when they did lose by three scores but really that happened at the very end of the game. So you're in the fourth quarter and it's a tight game and he's playing pretty well. It's the catastrophes that are so bad. Like the interception to Byron Murphy at the end of the game is just what

happened to your body to throw that football. There's way too many of those. And I think if he has another game where he throws two, three picks that they have to do it. He's also getting many of those. And I think if he has another game where he throws two, three picks, that they have to do it. He's also getting rocked sometimes. He's getting rid of the ball, but Dallas Turner hit him so hard. I don't know that he can really protect himself if he doesn't get rid of the football.

So that might happen anyway. But it's an interesting point about him. Let me ask you, please. You were there. What I'm hearing on hearing on cousins is there's nothing on the ball no nothing oh no right so last year when nick mullins played against jake browning my joke was that's the slowest the football has ever moved in nfl history like between the two quarterbacks if we could get next gen on how slow the football traveled through the

air it would have been a record. It was like watching St. John Fisher versus Brockport, which you and I get that joke. Most people who listen to the show don't. What is the joke? Who's the bad team in that? Oh, just any, any divisions,

Rochester. There's no way Fisher has a quarterback who's throwing faster than NFL guys. That's the joke that shouldn't happen. So it should not, but it may have been the case last week there is nothing on the football when it goes downfield he has to live on these underneath crossers and stuff which he can deliver on time and accurately but he threw one downfield and it

hung up in the air forever that's the problem you have a severe limitation if because drew breeze played like this at the end of his career drew breeze was a sociopath like he just had something in his brain that made him the most accurate the smartest the toughest that that's just that that's how it usually works if you're throwing the football to that speed so even if you're pretty good at being accurate and pretty good at being smart, you have to be unbelievable to survive. And he's not unbelievable. And you have to have the time, which is a problem up front as well, as you pointed out at the Raiders Monday night, two Monday night games, Minnesota plays, and then cousins will

play for Atlanta. He comes out for me. If that game is 10, 10 at halftime, if the Raiders have the lead, they're still in it. Atlanta. Yeah, well, they just need to tie Tampa Bay and they win the division. Why don't we get to these pick-ups? This Thursday night game has got some heat. San Francisco is still somehow a good football team, even though they've just been through everything this year and all the close losses and stuff.

Funny, when your team wins close, everyone says you're a fraud. But when you lose close, they just say you stick. They don't say, hey, maybe it was kind of random. I don't know. Football's weird like that. But what are we thinking for the pick-ems for this week? I like this game. These two teams play each other all the time.

It's almost always entertaining and interesting. and Brock Purdy's fighting through it. Stafford is just, he's still awesome. He just keeps getting better as he gets older. He was great against the Vikings. He was great against Buffalo. He's a fun watch. They have to throw it all the time. I like this game. Me too. I love the Niners, though. I mean, the Ram season has been so up and down. Once you think you know, then you find out you were wrong. Nakua was incredible against Buffalo. Cup was Cup. The Niners, these have been fun games, great rivalry. The Niners always win though. They did lose the game in week three and you could talk yourself into San Francisco season has been so strained that they just don't have it for this game we talked about Jennings and Samuel earlier

Samuel is I'm all in on him this week I mean the squeaky wheel stuff the running back injuries season really on the line here I am just going he's the hill I'm dying on if I'm the Niners. And so for Pickham, before I give you my list, we don't know or I don't know as we talk Wednesday morning what the running back situation is. I mentioned earlier how it's like it's West Coast teams, so it might be well into today. And as of this morning on underdog, there are Garendo options,

but no one else. If Garendo misses, he didn't practice yesterday. He was hurt Sunday. Then it's Patrick Taylor or maybe Israel Abanacanda. I don't know what underdog would pivot to in terms of the pick-em, but the 49ers can run the ball against anybody with anybody. Patrick Taylor last week. Garendo was huge last week. Doesn't matter.

So I'd want to be open to a higher on whoever we think their main guy is going to be. And, you know, that can be a tough guess, but it might not be Garendo is all I'm saying here. So Debo Samuel, what makes pick'ems, which aren't easy to win anyway, even tougher is if you go with touchdowns. But that guy, it's got to happen. I mean, it's been such a quiet year. I think there are jet sweeps. I think there are targets for him.

I'm not struggling. I just need the ball, was his Twitter yesterday. So I'm starting with a Debo Samuel touchdown in a game I think San Francisco will win. Juwan Jennings, like him. But if I'm playing a Debo game, then I'm leaning the other way when it comes to Jennings. You mentioned Pearsall. I'd love to see that happen and maybe in prime time, but he is just not getting the ball.

So it should happen. It just hasn't yet. I'm just going to go lower on Jennings, two and a half receptions in the first half. Maybe we get a game here where the Rams like to run it. They can convert some first downs and maybe the 49ers get an explosive play from Samuel and I get to halftime and Jennings is two for something. If they get behind, then I can, then I'm going to see Jennings numbers tick up. But again,

I'm playing a game here where San Francisco wins. So lower on Jennings in the first half, Debo touchdown. Who's the stud in the secondary? How do you say it? Lenore? Diamandou Lenore? Yep, yep. Higher 3.5 solo tackles. He's on the corner. Kup and Nakua.

Demarcus Robinson. I'll play the higher tackles on Lenore. And then you can't just play one team. I'll take higher 5.5 receptions on Kup. I thought I was going to be so smart talking about tackles. That was going to be my thing. I was going to, I was going to bring up the tackles and how I just feel like this is the most underrated on underdog thing that you can pick a linebacker against

a team that throws a bunch of short passes. You got to get seven tackles. And well, even on the other side, I was looking at Lenore. a team that throws a bunch of short passes, you're going to get seven tackles. And, uh, well, even on the other side, I was looking at Lenore. I was also looking at Quentin Lake for the Rams. They're going to throw the ball short. They're going to get right. I mean, there's just going to be a lot of opportunities for tackles there. So instead for my, that was going to be my under the radar one. How about a Kyle use check touchdown let's just let's go for it i mean you get a kyle use check touchdown and uh there's a there's a lot of extra incentive to that

financially and 5x uh let's see we got uh it's 5.7 yeah it's a good play with the running back uncertainty there i think that's what i was thinking they get to the goal line and they love this guy still so we'll we'll go with the fullback that is definitely along the lines of the brand of the show and if you want to play along with us uh pick them wise then go over to underdog fantasy or get the app which is the easiest to use in the industry so easy to do the pickums if you've never tried it jump right in still all sorts of fantasy tournaments going on in all sports but down the stretch really exciting here in the nfl and playoff drafts and playoff drafts which should be really great yes there's so much happening uh and uh we'll be rooting on did you do another one i have not done another one yet i

need to do another one maybe for next week all right i'll be rooting on my one sad team that got destroyed by jayden reed last week but anyway sign up with the code purple helps the show you get a special pick first time deposit offer up to a thousand dollars bonus cash must be 18 or older terms apply and if you are concerned with your play call 1-800-G or visit ncpgambling.com. So there you go. There are no matchups this week between teams that won one of the first 30 Superbowls, which would mean nothing to anyone else.

But this is how I line them up every week is matchups. And I, my helmet collection is only teams that won one of the first 30 Super Bowls and Tampa. There's not a single game. There always is a couple. No bye weeks either. There's not a single game this week between those teams.

So I just went with, you know, kind of random. Okay. Well, that Kansas City helmet is pretty awesome. It's the best helmet in the league. No stripe is the key. Our old friend Dean taught us that. The best helmets in the NFL, no stripe. I've never thought of that before.

Philadelphia, Kansas City, Minnesota. Pittsburgh's got a stripe. No stripe? Yeah, they got a stripe. They just don't have a logo on each side. That's true. The Deep End Fantasy Football Podcast, your show, also ADP Chasing, so make sure

you check those things out for more of your fantasy analysis, and we'll do it again next week as we start to get really deep into the fantasy football playoff world. Very exciting, Mike. Thanks for your time, my friend. Thank you. Can't wait for next week.

Good luck.