Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Is the Falcons offense primed for a bounce back vs. Vikings

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

Kirk Cousins threw four picks last week in a narrow loss. Matthew Coller is joined by Mike Schopp of The Deep End Podcast to discuss why Atlanta may be primed for a bounce back performance against a tough Vikings defense. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

🎵 🎵 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Mike Shope for the Fantasy Football Shope. Mike of ADP Chasing Now and the Deep End Fantasy Football Podcast along with WGR in Buffalo where you're watching the super bowl favorites i feel like every week i'm like mike i don't know man you go i don't know i don't know and then they beat somebody in the snow i don't nobody knows nobody ever knows that's one of my best arguments for vikings fans like you don't know when do we ever know here's what here's where you and i

your audience and mine on GR are exactly alike, is the history works on you negatively. They're both 0 for 4 in the Super Bowl. Are we allowed to say Super Bowl? I hope we are. I think anything goes on podcasts. And, you know, you blame them for losses that most, if not everybody involved in the,

on the current team had nothing to do with. It's just sort of who we are as fans. The only person in the organization that sort of like us in this way is the owner. And that's if your team hasn't been sold in the last generation or so. And you know, that's been different. The bills have been sold.

Doesn't matter like that. That's the person who has the same interest should have the same interests as you, which is like the overall long-term health of the team. You see NFL teams all the time get undermined because the coach and the GM and the owner, the players, like the timelines don't mesh. The Bears, right? I mean, so always in flux. Don't let, all I would say to Purple Insider loyalists is don't let what happened in Super Bowl IV affect your opinions and your thoughts on what will happen in Super Bowl 59.

That seems reasonable to do because I don't think anybody who will play in that game even knows about what happened in Super Bowl IV. Just you and I do and your viewers. Yeah, I doubt it. I mean, maybe there's some historians in the locker room. I'm not sure. Maybe they know how great Joe Kapp was in 69 or Jan Stennerud. What a great kicker he was for the era. Maybe they know that. I'm not sure if they do, but it is funny because when the Vikings kicker a couple of years ago, Greg Joseph missed the game winning kick.

Someone asked him after the game, if he was familiar with the Vikings kicking history and he's from South Africa, he had like no idea what they were talking about. So it was Gary Anderson. Okay. I did not make that connection but the point just being like it has nothing to do with anything and he has nothing to do with blair walsh and all those other things but the fans remember it and talk about it all the time so it's relevant to them even if it's

not relevant to what's going on inside of the building. And I think it is very hard for Vikings fans to buy into a team, especially when it's a pop-up quarterback that they didn't expect, because this is the, it's actually funny with Buffalo and Minnesota. Buffalo always has the franchise quarterback who comes this close and Minnesota always has the random quarterback you never expect. And they come this close as well. And so I think that that's been part of the expectation, but you know what I did feel this week, which is weird because I thought it was the worst win that the Vikings have had all season. I felt this week a little bit more of buy-in because of the way Sam Darnold played in the second half of that game and leading the

game winning drive and coming back from behind showing some resilience there in a moment where they could have melted down and lost the game I think if they win this week against the Falcons there will be a little more of you just can't deny that an 11 and 2 football team that has winning streaks of five and six can be good. Like we just can't do this anymore. You also have two years ago, which you and I talked about last week. And I think you wrote about also like why, why it's different than that. But most people, maybe not most, many will just refuse to believe in it.

It's so interesting because as a fan, that's all you ever want to do. Even like, this is more of a baseball point. I think like when you know, your team is going to go 70 and 92 when they're zero and zero and the sun comes out, you're into it. Like this, this could be the year you depth, you never know. Um, and football is a little bit different like that. But, I mean, Minnesota's good. They're really maybe the most interesting team in the NFL for trying to figure out how good. If it's not the Vikings, I think it's Pittsburgh, which keeps going. And now they're winning shootouts, and nobody had that. So we'll see about the Vikings.

They've got the schedule. They play Detroit again, week 18, that could be a lot or nothing. And even if the lions are too good in the regular season and they win that race, you're still going to a team like the Falcons or the Buccaneers or the Seahawks or the Cardinals in the first round, probably. And that's not so bad well and even when you just look at the playoffs and recent history even with something like point differential which you and i lean into quite a bit to try to figure out how good the team actually is which by the way at this point in the season the vikings are i think 70 points better than they were in 2022 so it is quite a bit of a difference. They were 29th in defense. Now they're whatever it is, fifth in defense.

That is different from a couple of years ago. But last year in the NFC championship, it was a team that had a plus 190 something, which was San Francisco against the plus 66 Lions team that was flawed going into the playoffs. They get the right matchup. They get, what was it, Tampa Bay coming to Detroit. They were able to handle that.

And then their one fourth down conversion away from going to the Super Bowl at a plus 66. I just, I think that the league in a weekly basis has become closer and closer and closer as we've gone along. Teams are mostly, there's some really brutal ones, but mostly operating in similar ways. When we're talking about the best teams across the board, the game does have the randomness element to it. I just feel like when you, especially if you're talking about a division team that you have

to get over, all division games seem to be close. All games in the NFL seem to be close. what was the the Palisaro stat it was 12 out of 13 or maybe it ended up 12 out of 14 because the Bills blew out San Francisco in the snow but I mean almost every game is like this and I don't know make the playoffs with 13 wins you can't tell me that that's not a good season or a team that could that could go somewhere yeah and we do live in a world and this the players have also always been this way where it doesn't matter unless you win after and that's a little bit sad i mean that's the the bills right now is and you know maybe the v, like the Bills right now are dominating. They've won seven in a row, 10 and two. They look like the best team in the AFC. If you just don't choose to become hypnotized by what Kansas City has done over the last five years, Kansas City looks

terrible every week and the Bills look really good. And so you've got this hot streak. You've got the Josh Allen experience that just continues to wow and amaze. And it's so much fun. And you've got this hot streak. You've got the Josh Allen experience that just continues to wow and amaze. And it's so much fun. And you've got snow angels. You can't, you can, people do. I don't want to wake up in the morning worried about whether I have to go on the road in mid-January. Just like you have to sort of stay. We had the Sabres together so's so long ago but almost 20

years ago and the second they had two great seasons and the second season everybody had obsessed about the Stanley Cup that's Buffalo like no championships Minnesota you know kind of can relate and don't do that don't just become swallowed whole by, well, it doesn't matter unless they win in the playoffs, which is so hard. And that's kind of how I'm trying to deal with this season for the Bills. Because this season for the Bills is also somewhat unexpected, which is different from the last couple of years. And that's certainly true of Minnesota as well. So you got to enjoy it. If you can't enjoy it, then just

quit the game. I mean, really, it's got, this has got to be fun. I also think that your point though, about expectations will never, it never leaves people. Like it never leaves what you thought the Vikings were going to be. You never, it never leaves what you thought Sam Darnold was going to be. And how many years did it take before it actually did go away what Josh Allen was in the first two years of his career, which was a very messy quarterback. And now he's not. And it's incredible. And there's a very good argument that he's the best quarterback in the NFL. Like you said, if you put away what you know about Mahomes' recent past.

But the most unstoppable player in the NFL, it's said, if you put away what you know about Mahomes' recent past, but the most unstoppable player in the NFL, it's either him or Lamar Jackson. And I don't even know who's after that, but I'm sure that every time he throws an interception, people are like, I knew it. He's just a turnover machine. That's who Josh Allen really is. And that's when Sam Darnold has a bad half. It's like, yeah, yeah, that's the old Sam, even though he's played top 10 quarterback in the NFL this year. But people went into this season thinking, really 2025 is when I need to get excited about this team.

So they've been very slow to get on board, especially since there has been a lot of one-score wins. Analyzing the mentality of two fan bases who have been so broken by their franchises over the years in the playoffs and how that rests and lingers over. But my saying on this, Mike, is you're cursed until you're not. The Boston Red Sox, they're cursed until they weren't. And the New Orleans Saints are my favorite example. The New Orleans Saints were a laughing stock for the longest time. They had some of the worst cursed history

and the Vikings, they hate the saints. So like no one's crying for them, but then all of a sudden, I mean, think about that San Francisco game that drew breeze place. So great. Alex Smith throws to his tight end a couple of times they win and the saints are eliminated. How many things went wrong for them? And then one year, they decided to put a bounty out on Brett Favre, and they got the right matchup, and they end up winning the Super Bowl. I don't know. You never know when it's going to happen or how it's going to work.

So anyway, the Falcons, the Vikings are playing the Falcons. And this is our fantasy show, mostly. So you were big on it. Careful. Look, you and I were skeptical of the bills too. And like if they could throw to anybody and things like that. So I don't know who knows what's going to happen, but we thought that the Falcons would put up some huge numbers with their weapons.

I would say that some of their numbers are good. Bijan Robinson, Drake London. But this offense in the last three weeks has just really swirled the ball. So what have you made of the Falcons season so far with Kirk Cousins at the helm? And is it just over or do we expect a bounce back? Like, what are we thinking here? Well, that's a lot of things. I mean, in terms of fantasy football, it has not gone that badly.

Like you've had Robinson, who you mentioned, London, even in that game against LA where they scored 13 points, London got something like 16 targets in that game against LA where they scored 13 points, London got something like 16 targets in that game. He's not getting big plays, which is the problem in the Drake-London investment, which was early second round on underdog. And, you know, Barkley is happening. So everybody's sort of remorseful about who they picked instead of Barkley

in that range of the draft. But still, like London's a player and fantasy wise, I think real life wise, you're OK there. Mooney has been a godsend to fantasy teams because he was so cheap. And you had that stretch after week one. After week one, when they lost to Pittsburgh, it was like we're writing the obits. You know, Cousins can't move, and this is going to be bad. And it turned, and he had a couple of epic games, the Tampa games, the Thursday night where they put up whatever, 500 passing yards.

That counts. Underdog were playing best ball, and you've got to have those spike weeks to keep you afloat because the buys are going to happen, injuries are going to happen. You've got to have those monster games, which he did. He has given you this year. Last point on fantasy is really Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment from day one in his career. He's not on the field as often, not as many routes, just with tight ends, if not also receivers, you just need to see the target share. This is somebody we have to get the ball to. And he's just not that for Atlanta.

So anybody who's invested in Pitts over the years doesn't feel good about it. Real life, they're definitely in a slump. We talked about the Bills and the Vikings. Don't the Vikings have a takeaway, at least one takeaway in every game? The Bills might too. The Bills are like at the top of the takeaway chart and the top of the, you know, the bottom of the turnover chart. There's some regression waiting for Buffalo. Like they're not really as dominant as they may look, I think, because these like three to zero against San Francisco, it's just such a game changer.

And I think with Atlanta, now you're going to tell me, and you're not going to be wrong, like this is sort of part of Kirk Cousins' brand, is the picks. There were two picks in that game against the Chargers that were just, you cannot believe the quarterback is making that throw. But he does.

And so that happens. But you do get a reward sometimes out of those kind of plays, that kind of style of play from him. So what does it all add up to? They're in first place in the NFC South. They might be a playoff team. Tampa looks better than Atlanta, but they've beaten Tampa Bay twice. And so we'll see what happens.

I think they're dangerous. I love this game Sunday for the possibility that both teams get rolling and selfishly I've got one high-end dynasty or not dynasty best ball team that really needs cousins I mean I was afraid he was going to get benched last week and I would have gotten a zero at the position because Daniels is on by six teams on by makes this week really sort of harrowing what did I how did I answer your question I'm not sure I ever did, but what's interesting here? Well, the question was just talk about the Falcons. I nailed it. And you did, you did talk about the Falcons. So a few different things.

Number one with Kirk Cousins, I mean, over the last three games, it has been a horror show for him. Zero touchdowns, six interceptions. The picks against the Chargers are as sad of interceptions as you're ever going to see in the NFL. And there's a eye test part of this that is that ball ain't moving. It is traveling as slowly as a National Football League pigskin has traveled through the air in the NFL this year. There's just no arm strength behind what he's doing. But the thing that I know about Kirk Cousins is that every time he has been declared down and out and it's over for old Kirk, he seems to have this upswing that keeps him alive and keeps him getting paid in the NFL. And that goes back to 2015. And the, you like that

game. I'm sure that no one has any reason to remember what happened in the circumstances. Washington was two and four. They were all calling for Kirk to be benched. He's a backup. He can't be a starter in the NFL and they get down 24 to seven to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And Kirk pulls the rabbit out of the hat, goes on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL for the rest of the season, earns the starting job for 2016. He just has a way of doing this. The 2019 Vikings, Stefan Diggs was skipping practice. He was so enraged at how bad the offense was. And then Kirk comes back and has Kirk Tober, puts up 140 quarterback rating in the month of October

totally dominates gets them back in the playoffs end of the season we think it's going to be over for Kirk and Mike Zimmer wins a playoff game in New Orleans it's just every single time you're like I don't know I just don't even this year even this year the first game like this this is over this guy can't play and then he's putting up 500 yards in a game. So I don't know what to make of this. What I do know is the Vikings defense is gassed. They played 82 snaps last week. Anytime that happens, I do wonder about chasing around Bijan Robinson and Drake London for

another 60 minutes. And also veteran quarterbacks have done well against the Vikings. Goff did great. Stafford did great. And Kyler Murray threw the pick at the end when he was just heaving the ball up into the atmosphere. So that hurt his numbers, but Murray was, was good against them, completed a lot of passes, had the ball day. I think that Atlanta is capable of getting the ball out of Kirk's hands and into these playmakers and controlling the clock and being on the field for a long period of time. If he doesn't throw an interception or take a strip sack. It's the season high rushing yards

against Minnesota last week. Their run defense has been perfect, but Arizona got them a little bit. And, you know, just sort of common sense wise in terms of Atlanta, you make the arm strength point Their run defense has been perfect, but Arizona got them a little bit. And just sort of common sense-wise, in terms of Atlanta, you make the arm strength point. If they're seeing decline in him, Mina Kimes is out here saying they should start Pennix right now. So if they're kind of close to that, you'd want to run the ball here. I mean, you'd want to see if you can't take advantage of all the points you just made with Bijan Robinson, who you had to have with a high-end first-round pick.

And they also throw the ball to him. They've really, for a lot of the last couple years, Arthur Smith and then this year for a while, it was really mostly a timeshare at running back for Atlanta with Tyler Algier. But they've cut back on that, and they're really feeding Robinson right now. So I think that's my simple approach to this game if I'm Atlanta. And if you're right, that Minnesota is wearing out a little bit and that Arizona showed that they can be run on more than anybody else has all season. And that's what I would want to do here, protect cousins and see if I can't win up front with the running game.

But the turnover thing, this is another, it's like one score games where there's a bigger, broader entire national football league history where you can say, ah, you know, turnovers can be pretty streaky, if not pretty random. Does the ball and it's odd egg shape bounce into your man's hands or the other team like that, that whole thing. But when it comes to this team, taking it away and Kirk giving it away, Kirk is number one by a little bit in a turnover worthy plays in the entire NFL, certainly exacerbated by last week's game, but number one in turnover worthy plays. That's kind of why we have that stat to know if it's random or not.

He also has more fumbles than anyone in the National Football League since 2018. 66 fumbles. I think if you're the Vikings, what you're trying to do is you're trying to get these. Like you're hunting turnovers. You're going to try to survive underneath passes to Drake London.

Okay, that's fine. We'll just tackle him. B. John Robinson, if you don't give up any explosives to him. Okay. You can get your five or six yards of pop, but at some point, Kirk's going to have to straight drop back and he cannot run away from you. He can't even step up out of the pocket away from you. So blitzing up the middle, I imagine will be something that they do against him. And then knowing where he's going to go with his hot routes

and then trying to jump those i think that that's going to be the general plan because they know he's going to be as he once said chucking and ducking to try to avoid taking any of these hits and i mean he's leading the league in fumbles this year with 12 i think you're you're just aiming for can we get a strip sack can Can we get an interception? And if they do that, it won't be much of a game, I think. It's pretty delicious. I'm sure you and your viewers have been excited about this Atlanta game all year,

hoping that Cousins, probably hoping that Cousins would last to the point where he would start. It's December now, but he has. And his durability, he had the one year, hoping that Cousins, probably hoping that Cousins would last to the point where he would start. It's December now, but he has, and that his durability had the one year, but that's contributed to his, you know, fumble stat over the last several years, obviously not to say that it's not valid. Um, I just, it really sets up for the kind of a narrative game where who, who should have the edge, the defense familiar with the quarterback, the quarterback familiar with the defense, but more just the emotions. I like for the narrative stuff that the game is in Minnesota, right? Like Cousins going back there,

like you sort of talked about in terms of his career, always somebody trying to prove himself. And what better opportunity could you have than this? So that'll make it fun. By the way, on the Falcons' pass rush, maybe the worst in the league, just really making it easy for quarterbacks to take their time and get it done until last week.

They had five sacks against Justin Herbert in that game, which was, to me, surprising. And I think that Arizona put some things on tape that the Vikings will have to solve because they have a really good defensive-minded coach. Not so good with game management, as we figured out. If Jonathan Gannon goes for two fourth downs in that game, they probably just win. But instead, he did not, and they lost. But his defensive strategy, I just watched it back on tape yesterday.

It was really good against Sam Darnold. It is reassuring that for once the so-called field goal of death did kill you because every time somebody kicks to go up six, we're all just like, this is going to end badly. Minnesota did have to convert a fourth down on that last drive, too. They were maybe out of field goal range where they would have gone for it anyway. But that's what you want to see if you're into the number. You think close, right?

It was close. Yeah, they were in field goal range, but it would have been a long kick. And a little bit too much time left. Yeah. You know, 50 seconds. Is that about right where they were there? Does Minnesota kick for the tie on fourth and five? You probably know with that much time left.

I think I wouldn't for kind of the same reasons. Yeah. I would have gone for it too. I don't know what, what Kevin O'Connell was thinking though. They made a 55 yard kick in the game and yeah, I'm not, I honestly don't know. He did say, he did admit admit though that it changed his mindset once they kicked the field goal um like that he had to take the mindset of going to try to score a touchdown and going for a fourth down and being more aggressive with the passing game so i mean

yeah of course yeah you have to has to i'm the most conservative coach in the world would be like it's fourth and ten down six a a minute left. We have to go. That's just it. And that's what the field goal does to the team with the lead is it puts them in peril because these, you, you, you take the worst strategic coach in the league all time and you turn that switch off because they have no choice at that point. And that's kind of scary. So I, again, like I,

I just like it when a team loses when they do that, because it's, you know, not always what happens. There's two teams. And for many years, for most of the history of the NFL, both coaches in the same game would make poor decisions in terms of win probability, but always frustratingly, one of them would win anyway. So you want, you want this stuff to be punitive or at least I do. Well, it is exciting when a coach completely blows it because the coaches have gotten so much better at it, and they all have analytics people up in the boxes now telling them what to do, and sometimes the coach, like Matt Eberflus, doesn't listen to them

and blows everything, but they all have this now. They have game management coordinators and everything else. They've figured out the value of doing this correctly. So when a coach blows it and we're on the internet or at the game, we're like, aha, aha, I know this better than you. But they're doing much better now. Fourth downs are at an all-time high again for, I think, maybe the fifth straight year or something like that.

So teams have figured this out. Not yet Ohio State. Not yet Ohio State. But I digress. straight year or something like that so teams have figured this out uh but not yet ohio state not yet ohio state but i digress yeah well uh it's it's only a shame that ryan day didn't get pepper sprayed uh after the way they handled it but anyway okay that's a little too harsh anyway uh i don't know if your team's fighting at the center of the field standing there and watching them doesn't seem like that's your, but that's college football and someone else's problem. I think what we're going to see from Atlanta is them try a lot of the different pressures that Arizona did against the Vikings because they caught them not napping exactly, but maybe unprepared to take on some of the like zero blitzes where they send everyone,

or they did some delay stuff where the linebacker just stands there looking like he's ready to play his own and then takes off and they were dropping back people from strange places i think that like atlanta sometimes with defense you're just only as good as you are that day right we could all they are the top or the worst defense and then suddenly they're just good because they have the right game plan the right ideas so that's something the vikings have to solve uh but getting justin jefferson back involved was huge for them uh you know in in the biggest moments there and i don't know what to do with aaron jones's fumbling by the way i just i don't think anything right just i don't i yeah i think you have to i speaking of mocking coaches don't we mock, right? Just ignore it. I think you have to.

Speaking of mocking coaches, don't we mock the coaches who bench guys for fumbles? Guy's been in the league a long time. What, do you have two early in that game? But got in the end zone to sort of salvage his fantasy day, and finally Jefferson came back. Too late for that team I showed you last week, but came back and put a good day up. Hopefully there's more of that. Yeah, week 14 in fantasy on underdog and best ball.

This is it. I mean, after this week is when all those best ball mania leagues cut from 12 teams to two. That is 672,672 teams in that tournament. You got to get top two to make it through and it's really close on a lot of cases especially if you're playing high volume uh plus you have six teams on by this week so some of those drafts maybe not best ball mania but a lot of underdog drafts were set up before the schedule even came out and you can get really jammed uh you've got Houston, Denver, Indy, New England,

blanking. Baltimore, Washington this week are the six bye teams. So a lot of good players who will not play this week and give you zeros. That's tough. I do want to write Roger Goodell a personal letter to ask how it is that teams have their bye weeks now. It's December, man. These teams have been practicing since july and this is the first break that you're giving them i don't know whatever algorithm they're using i guess like all ai has its glitches i'm probably wrong but my feeling on that has always been it's december now and we're out of sweeps we don't need as many games on TV. They did have six teams on by two weeks ago, which was November. But you also have like pre-Thanksgiving.

I think television audience, wouldn't it have to? Goes heavily into the by schedule and like even which teams are off when probably can be affected by that in some way. Yeah, and I'm sure it also affects why we still watch the New York Jets on national TV and so forth. But anyway, so last night you suggested to me that there were some exciting things going on in Underdog Fantasy, promo code purple. And so I pulled up the app, the easiest app in the industry to use. And I went to one of the best ball tournaments that's happening, the gauntlet. And I just clicked it and said, all right, let's draft. I was watching the Vikings film and my phone vibrated every time I, it was my turn. So I was watching the film and I was doing my little film study and then it would go, and I was like, okay, who got the draft 30 seconds

on the clock. Here we go. Oh, wow. You were working and drafted 30 second clock. That doesn't help. So I get done with my team and I'm like, oh, there's a lot of good players on this. I feel pretty good about it. I send you the screenshot and you wrote back a verse from the Bible about praying for me with how badly this went. So I'm going to put this on the screen.

Slight exaggeration. Only slight, only slight. So I'm going to put this on the screen here. And also you can see how many unread emails I have. It's over a thousand. Oh, I can,

I can beat that. None from any of you though. So here it is. All right, let's go. Here's how I did it. And tell me why this made you so upset and sad. It didn't make me that upset and sad or even that disappointed.

Like you said to me in the same conversation, it's why I have you on the show every week. By the way, before we get into it, my ADP chasing colleague and former Best Ball Mania winner, Pat Corain, Daily Rojo on the end in this draft. We could even look at his. What you're trying to do, it's a great format. It is super popular. I highly encourage anybody interested in a fun, different fantasy football format to get on their promo code purple and do the whole thing.

They have $3 entries and the little mitten is the one, three bucks. It's really fun, easy and affordable. It's uncomfortable. We're not drafting a team for a full season where we want to optimize best players, best positions. What you're trying to do here is build a roster that will be teams or players who will make the Super Bowl. And what people do in this format is basically cut their own legs off by drafting players who won't be able to make the Super Bowl because somebody else they already drafted will. So So I think ideally you're trying to balance, you know, position value and all the regular, the usual stuff with who is my bet here, who is going to New Orleans for Super Bowl 59. And that's why I'd want a lot like look at team three with St. Brown, Montgomery, Flowers, and Laporta.

Doesn't get to Jackson, who went in the second round. But like, all right, so we're betting on Detroit. And whether it's Baltimore or Houston, I see Mixon eventually down there. We'll see. But I just don't like for your team how many different NFL teams are represented. Because, you know, we're trying to load up on one or two. Henry and Lamar Jackson in terms of Team 5, Mahomes and Kelsey, and Hopkins in Team 1.

That's how I'd want to do it because I think, you know, you can not be buried early in this tournament because like you could, you could min cash because you've got guys, especially if Minnesota say ends up getting the one seed wins out and your Gibbs and your AJ Brown are playing in the first week, the extra game. That's a really interesting wrinkle to try to predict. We're still five weeks away as well. We don't know who the buy is going to go to or anything like that, but that's a really interesting wrinkle to try to predict we're still five weeks away as well we don't know who the buy is going to go to or anything like that but that's really my my issue with it is to make sure you sort of hone in on two or three teams that could win the whole thing or at least make the super bowl you don't care who wins and if you spread out too much i think

you know you're probably capped okay just to go through this all right for those listening uh my team jameer gibbs aj brown nico collins which maybe was not a great pick if you don't buy into houston but who knows i'm gonna want to see stroud here uh okay well oh i did pair a quarterback with somebody else I have. I got Khalil Shakir with the 21st pick. Then Jaden Reed and Jordan Love together. Isaiah Likely, at least I took him away from somebody else. Maybe Mike Evans is a bad pick, but is he not going to get all the footballs? And I still think it's possible that Tampa Bay ends up winning that division. Not, I got both running backs for Pittsburgh. So every time Pittsburgh gives the ball to a running back, I get all their points. That was my, that was my thought process. But after, see, the thing is I did the draft and then you said that to me and I was like, oh, that makes complete sense.

That if you're completing against so many other people, what you're trying to do here is to hit the home run, right? You're trying, you're trying to not just get the ball on the fairway and have a pretty good showing, but you're trying to nail the team that goes from really you'd want the wildcard team to win the super bowl. Don't you? I mean, wouldn't that be kind of a strategy if you thought that there was a team that was playing wildcard weekend because you just get the most games from them? Well, that's every team that makes the playoffs, but two. So that could be Indianapolis or that could be Kansas City, right? Or that could be Philadelphia or it could be, I don't know, San Francisco. I mean, just like that's we don't know yet. You know, just recognize when you look back at that,

you see those badges on the top? Like so five of the six players in that draft have the underdog experience. We've won a lot of money badges. Anybody drafting in this stuff, you know, at the first week of December when the playoffs are like more than a month away is kind of a sicko. Like we're, we're, we're in here trying, we're trying to get that edge, make sure if you have the funds for it, kind of max out in these tournaments. And to do that, you got to get in early and shoot your shots. So what, what I would recommend, and like, I haven't, I don't have a badge. I'm not playing that much or winning that much, at least not yet.

But you might want to do a few of those, find a price point. It's really fun. And see what those badge bros are doing with their teams and how maybe to play accordingly. Every draft is different. They're all just different organisms, and you can't know who's getting picked. So sometimes, you know, you get sniped or you, you, you have a plan and it gets blown up, you get punched in the face.

So, you know, that, that happens and you sort of just what a lot of these guys will do is just play again, recognizing that, you know, a lot of drafts just don't turn out. But yeah, the, the key point, as the draft is getting going, make your bet. Who's going to the Super Bowl? We don't know the bye weeks yet. We don't know the matchups yet. We can't know that.

Neither do your competitors. And then just Jawan Jennings last year is the name I think of for this, Matthew, because he was buried on their depth chart and even got the one seed I think San Francisco so why would you ever draft a guy who's not playing anyway on a team where they're not going to play as many games because if you get to the Super Bowl he's live one injury you know and that is literally exactly what happened where Jennings, the Niners made it and he might've scored in that game. I mean, that was like a key pick and you would have made that pick in the last round of these things instead of, you know, somebody who

was like a wide receiver to like a Michael Pittman or somebody that we'd way, you know, this is last year. Jennings has had a good year this year, but this is last year. We'd rank way higher in a vacuum. I think maybe what I'll do is I'll do a couple more and try to go all in on teams that other people don't think are going to make the Super Bowl. So like Houston would be a good pick here. No one thinks Houston's going to make the Super Bowl. They just don't look good enough.

But if CJ Stroud gets hot, we've seen what he can look like. He could end up in the AFC championship. So maybe you just draft all Texans or something. I feel like that might be the only way you could kind of strategize, use this strategy of all in on one team, right. And actually beat the people who are drafting all the favorites.

I would say, and you know, just a humble plug. If you watch ADP chasing, we've talked about this tournament a little bit on Monday mornings, and we'll do a lot more of it in the coming weeks. You see Pat in that draft, Davis Maddock, who's on the show with Pat and myself talked about,

this is like a week ago or maybe two weeks ago, even now, the earlier you play in these things, the more chalky you want to be because there are players who are going to want to sort of, not even Houston, but more like maybe the Chargers or Denver, one of these teams that's really on the fringe. And who knows if you're just going to be a zero by the time the playoffs come around if they don't make it.

As I say that, the AFC is pretty cut and dried right now, the top seven. So it's not as true as it was a week or two ago, that point. But I do think you can lean into Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City, Philadelphia, or even Minnesota at this point, more than you'll want to be able to do down the road. That, again, really more applies to players who are playing a lot of these teams trying to diversify their portfolio and now we're getting sort of into the weeds but yeah i i think you can what you say is logical and correct you can also draft the bills draft the lions and not you know worry about it or you could just go entirely by vibes and see if you prove the world wrong,

which maybe I will. And that's kind of, that was my approach, but well, like you said on underdog, it doesn't have to be your last. There are so many more opportunities. This Thursday night game is hot for the Vikings here,

Detroit and green Bay. So let's get into our discussion with that and the pickums. By the way, if you haven't caught on that the show is presented by Underdog Fantasy, well, it is. And you can check it out over there. The easiest app to play fantasy sports in the industry. Sign up with the code purple to claim your special pick and first time deposit offer up to a thousand dollars in bonus cash.

Luckily, as I was telling you last night, a thousand dollars in bonus cash luckily as i was telling you last night i was using my bonus cash to have the worst draft ever and uh you must be i didn't say that either i didn't quote the bible i didn't say that all this was implied all that you quit you tried to quit the show and never talked to me about fantasy ever again okay um must be uh 18 or older terms apply concerned with your play not for skill reasons uh call 1-800 gambler or ncp gambling you can't you can't i shouldn't joke about this you can't call that number and be like oh i'm so bad at this i'm concerned with my play i didn't know what to do should i just take a couple texans do they know how to take

that call i think we're gonna have to delete this part out of the podcast. Love you, Underdog Fantasy. Anyway, so let's talk about this game. Packers and Lions. Very hard one for the Vikings fan base because I think they have to root for the Packers here because you're aiming for the NFC North. But how do you evaluate this one? Lots of Detroit Lions defensive players hurt.

Oh, okay. Well, I love it too. I mean, it's a great matchup. I have flashbacks to last Thanksgiving when Green Bay, which was not as good as they looked this year, went into Detroit and buried them. And so if you leaned into the Packers that day, which I remember not doing, that paid off big.

The first name that comes up on the pick-em is Jameer Gibbs. And the first option is for a receiving touchdown at like 4.75x. And I kind of love that. I love that price. But I also don't like that it's the first thing they're offering you. You especially. You want to sort of scroll the F down. You want to go all the way and find some sort of fullback or tackle Penesul to throw a touchdown pass.

I doubt they have that, but something like that. Generally, I love Gibbs in the game, so I would be higher on Gibbs. Laporta off of two touchdowns but still like no nothing down the field no yards I think I would lean lower on Laporta stuff because of the recency bias there I mean really just that is not happening and the Lions don't need it to have happened this year they're they're burying teams anyway Jadenaden Reed is promising, I think, for Green Bay. He's always been your guy this year. We've talked about the Packers a lot, so I like that. And I'm never comfortable with Jacobs, but I've lost a lot on him this year. He's just one of these half a

dozen or so veteran running backs with terrible, terrible efficiency metrics that just gets the ball constantly on a good offense and beats you in fantasy football. That's just – it's mixing. It's Jacobs mixing quintessentially. I think these guys are just not even good anymore, but here's 25 carries, and we're a good offense, and you win. So those are a couple of my sort of general thoughts on players in this matchup. I think Tucker Kraft is one more

who I would be tempted to find a hire on. He had a zero a couple of weeks ago and maybe even another one. But in a shootout kind of game, which is very possible here, I think Love likes going to Kraft. Do you know the Romeo Dobbs injury status? Because he missed last week.

That opened up Wicks a little bit. It opened up Watson and I think Kraft too. I think the Packers have all season, as we predicted, been a team where you kind of need one guy out of the mix to know anything about where the ball is going. If you get that, then it gets pretty easy and, you know, pretty juicy. Yeah. We're recording this on Wednesday.

Usually that's like the first day we start to get injury hints. So we haven't got that yet on him with Jacobs. I have a bit of a conundrum when it comes to a listener was heckling me about Jacobs because the listener said when the Packers signed Jacobs and let go Aaron Jones, that I said, I don't know what they're doing. I don't know why the Packers are doing this. Jones was cheaper. Jacobs hadn't been any good.

And my conundrum was, do I be annoyed at someone being like, ha ha, even though Jacobs hasn't been that great, he's been okay, but he hasn't been Saquon Barkley. Or am I like, if you're listening that intently to remember me saying that I don't remember me saying that I should be impressed and thank you. But also I don't think I missed horribly on this. Like Jacobs, Jacobs and Aaron Jones have both been good. Neither one of them has been Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley and shrugs. I think with the Packers, I'm not sure who can't run for four and a half yards per carry for the Green Bay Packers. And I don't know why they spent that money on Jacobs, but I guess he's fine.

So I'll go the under out of spite. I'm sorry, how did I do this? The lower, the lower out of spite. Spite for my great listener who's followed the show for a really long time and felt the need to heckle me uh the answer is always thanks for watching yeah but of course it is who knows like there can always be a personality thing that factors into that stuff i don't know if that was the case with jones i think durability was the i agreed with you on on that move i thought it was puzzling. But Jones, look at the year with Minnesota.

He's always injured and he always plays. So I think it's a little bit of a ride with him maybe, and that's a little bit what his Green Bay career was like too, whereas Jacobs, you can't know this. That's the ultimate frustration this year in fantasy football is we thought we knew to avoid these older, inefficient running backs, and they're just burying us with production and volume. My bet was absolutely against that.

But Jacobs is, again, like Nixon, somebody who's just okay. Najee Harris, just okay at best, but they get tons of volume. Their offense is good, and that's going to be good things for fantasy. And I hope my listener knows I'm just messing with him for that. Or am I messing with you? I don't know. Who's messing with who at this point? Jake Bates, seven and a half kicking points.

These division games, I know that Dan Campbell likes to go for it on fourth down, but I think that it impacts thinking sometimes Sometimes they get a little less aggressive. I thought that Dan Campbell got less aggressive on Thanksgiving against Chicago. They get a little more tense and the teams know each other a little bit better. It just screams to me, two field goals from Jake Bates,

a couple of extra points and that he will go higher than seven and a half kicking points. It's also, I don't know if they call it juice toward the higher, but a little bit better payout with the high. He doesn't miss and they're indoors. He's good. Yep. He is very good.

So there you go. Who do you think will win that game? Lions, but I kind of hope i'm wrong i like uh the packers and i like you know good races and it's a better race if detroit loses another game here make it more interesting so for that but who wins the game probably the favorite i'll say the packers win it because the way they've been playing recently and that i think they have a good coach who beat detroit last year so okay well that was a fun purple insider fantasy show we'll try again to draft uh better next time and we'll have a lot to discuss i mean we're it's getting hot here man it's getting hot

down the stretch and i am very excited about the colder it gets the hotter it gets yes that is i've always said that. Well, anyway, thank you very much, Mike, for all of your time. And thank you all for watching slash listening. And you can heckle me about whatever take I had six months ago, whenever you like. Take care, everybody. Bye.