Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Is the Sam Darnold decision simple for the #Vikings or complicated?

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Matthew Coller and Mike Schopp of WGR550 in Buffalo and The Deep End fantasy podcast talk about the Vikings QB decision. He thinks it's easy, Matthew thinks it's hard. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Mike Shope for the Purple Insider Fantasy Show. Presented by Underdog Fantasy. Mike, of course, WGR in 550 in Buffalo. Very exciting times there for potentially the game of the century decade universe's history between josh allen and lamar jackson which we'll certainly talk about that uh but i think we can continue a little bit to deconstruct vikings and rams and i guess my question for you mike having gone on this little journey that we went through every week from one of the first shows we did. I was in a hotel in Cleveland talking with you after joint practices.

So you've seen the whole thing come about. Did we miss something along the way with this Vikings team? Or was it just a case of facing the wrong teams at the wrong times? As often has happened in our conversations, when we start on the Vikings, the first question makes me want it to ask you the same question, but I can't, I still do not accept the Rams as the wrong team.

Like I just think, I think I thought they were the third worst team in the playoffs, but two of the three teams I thought were the three worst teams in the playoffs won kind of easily, Houston and L.A., and any given Sunday and all of that. The Rams have always been a team where their skill guys and their quarterback you can be a little bit afraid of. I mean, the Bills found that out.

The Bills went and scored 42 points there and lost. So much like with Minnesota, they couldn't get to Stafford. And when that happens, you're in tough. But come on, like you don't want to go to LA ever and not hit double digits. So obviously Sam Darnold is everybody's takeaway from this game. You have Kevin O'Connell and people who want to sort of turn the target toward him. And again, I would defer to your expertise when it comes to that, but it's very disappointing. I mean, this is the second time in three years, right, where Minnesota, say what you want about what their quality was, this year seemed much above that team with Cousins a couple years ago. Just got to the playoffs and went flat. They had it tough, I guess, having to go to Detroit for that last game I mean the timing of that uh wasn't really great but everybody plays in their own division in that week 18 game and only one team can play the Bears

and this part of it is interesting when we get to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and the MVP stuff because the Ravens had to win their games late. They ended up in that kind of island game pocket with Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Houston, where they played one on Christmas and then the previous Saturday. And then the next Saturday, all their games were on against nothing, no other games. And Jackson was great in those games. And I've heard some people say, well, that's not fair. The Bills played the Patriots and the Jets three times. And Allen didn't even need to play the last one because they were so far ahead. I mean, that's just one of the

many facets of all of it. Everybody wants to know what Minnesota does now from this, and so do I, but you had a team that I liked them in the matchup. They were favored to win, just like the Chargers were in that four or five game but um could not do it you were there what did you make of it i think that it is a forever truth of the national football league that if the other team's defensive line destroys your offensive line for whatever reason it might be whether it's just particular one-on-one matchups or coaching that there are not many quarterbacks who survive that. And there might be two of them playing in the game that you'll be watching closest in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen,

but I'll tell you who's not going to survive. That is Sam Darnold. Historically, we've seen Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, even in this weekend, Justin Herbert, a lot of really good quarterbacks through the years when their offensive lines just got mauled. They did not do the same things that they did during the regular season. And that was the biggest concern that I had going into the game was that they had four guys up front that combined for something like 200 pressures. And this was the biggest concern that I had going into the game was that they had four guys up front that combined for something like 200 pressures. And this is the same exact blueprint San Francisco had in 2019 that took them to the Super Bowl. They didn't have the perfect coverage unit, but they had an unbelievable defensive line.

I don't know if that can drive your success through a whole season to be an elite defense, but it can certainly win you a single game. And the other part of it too, was as this thing gets picked apart by the smartest people watching film, the Dan Orlovskis, Nate Tice, people like that, the takeaway continues to be that Sean McVay just understood how Kevin O'Connell was going to block them. So every time they used condensed sets, they blitzed corners, which they didn't do all year long. And then they just did it in this game, which is one of those wrinkles. And when they went to run play action, where Sam Darnold was dominant this year, when he turned around, he had a cornerback sacking him. And that was one of their plans to be able to do that.

They also attacked the offensive line with the thing that they struggled with most, which was kind of sorting through who was blitzing or who was rushing and who wasn't rushing, where they were rushing from. And they did a tremendous job of creating one-on-ones with their best players. So Jared Verse is an unbelievable young player. And Cam Robinson fell apart at the end of the season. We have gotten used to a Darisaw is over there. No,

no guy's going to get after the quarterback of Darisaw is over there. The Vikings played the Texans. Daniil Hunter got, you know, a hit or so on Sam Darnold, but that Texans line is nasty. They didn't do a whole lot against the Vikings because Christian Darisaw, but they don't have Christian Darisaw. They have Robinson, who someone's going to pay for one year, $5 million

to play for him next year. He really kind of showed over the longer sample that he's more of a backup type of player and not a starter. And that if you have that at left tackle and you don't have Josh Allen at quarterback, that's what you get. And what it means to the offseason, I think that every person watching that game thought, well, Sam Darnold just lost himself all the money and he's out of Minnesota and we'll catch you next time. I don't think that history suggests that that is the way that teams do this. I mean, look at Daniel Jones' last playoff game.

He got killed against the Philadelphia Eagles or even Kirk Cousins in 2019 had as bad of a game as you can have against San Francisco. They extended him that offseason, you know, the Jacksonville Jaguars extending Trevor Lawrence, a good quarterback play that can get you to 14 wins is not easy to find. And we, none of us know where JJ McCarthy really is in his recovery and how far they think he is along. So there's a lot of factors that we don't really know from inside the building. But I also think that if I'm the general manager of this team, I'm going, you know, I got a lot of things to do here and I would like as much money as I could possibly get to do it with.

And even if we have a setback year in 2025 long-term, it's going to be better for us to not give $40 million on a salary cap ish to Sam Darnold. So it's, it's complex. And to tell you the truth, Mike, I don't know what they're going to do. I don't know how this is going to sort out because if I'm Kevin O'Connell on the other side of that, I'm going, I just won 14 games. You realize if I win eight next year with a young quarterback, everyone's going to be looking at me and saying, Hey, now he's on the hot seat. Right? So there's a, there's just a lot, a lot of layers to this thing to pick apart. And I'm not sure which direction it's going to go just quickly before i take my turn do you think they know what they'll do yet i think they might have thought

they knew after yeah two weeks ago i mean that's the crazy part right like that's why they won't have this conversation for several weeks because if you were making that discussion on the plane on the way home uh they would have left sam darnold in glendale arizona and told him to walk but that's not how these things are really done and i think also last year kevin o'connell the sure thing of kirk cousins was enticing to him at the right price so i i really i really don't know when it's going to be determined, how it's going to be determined. We're just going to have to find out.

I think they're going to franchise tag him, but do they trade him away after that would be really the question. Right. A few thoughts. I think one of the more fascinating, yet perennially underappreciated, underrespected facets of trying to analyze matchups and predict football is those matchups up front. I think all the intel you could have from the outside on coaching matchups and tendencies and everything still stops short at one guy against the other.

And that can be a technique that can be a familiarity that can just be my ankle hurts today. That can just be so not random, but really unknown out here and even in there as to how these particular matchups are going to go. And as you know, one big loss in that area can undermine everything you game plan for and want to do in a game. It's just over. So a bad day up front is a bad day. And matchups and the different nuances that go into that help make football so so interesting uh second the difference between the Vikings and the Lawrence situation and the others of course is that

they have McCarthy like they've already made the draft capital investment in someone else and those other teams hadn't like the guy we were talking about was their investment. Minnesota has an out and not everybody would blame them for using it. This was the plan. You had a great season and we respect that. Then when it comes to O'Connell, it's his life and his feelings. He would have control over that like we would in ours. My perspective out here on him is he shouldn't worry about it. Like he, if you do go back to when you were in Cleveland and the beginning of the

season, and we were more often talking about fantasy football, like it'll be fine. You know, they might not win, but the stats will be there and the quarterback play will get there. Justin Jefferson had been the number one or number two pick in fantasy football prior to Cousins leaving. Then Cousins leaves.

And last year we all went, all right, well, quarterback uncertainty isn't great. And we picked him fifth. Still fifth. Still good. But did not have as much confidence in Jefferson as we had in C.D. Lamb or Tyree Kill because we knew who the quarterback was going to be in that little bit of uncertainty or a lot of bit of uncertainty with Minnesota. Cousins was such a fantasy darling.

You know, who cares about picks in fantasy? You know, you want Jameis Winston to start your team's games in fantasy football. So that left Jefferson kind of in the middle with Chase. He was still considered above Chase, so they kind of went 5-6 in drafts. Next year, the conversation is the same, I think, unless Darnold is signed long-term, which I doubt. If he's franchised, there's still going to be questions every day

about what they're going to do there, and I would hate that if I were O'Connell. So I think I'd want to get out, if I could, on Darnold. But there still will be some quarterback uncertainty there if he's gone. A lot, even. Which sort of leaves Jefferson in the wind. And, I don't know, we just learned something about what this coach is capable of. And if they win eight games, look at Stefanski in Cleveland.

Like he's put up with this turmoil at quarterback. He's won coach of the year twice. O'Connell will win this year, I think. So, you know, they have the award in your pocket and you sort of get the benefit of the doubt, or at least you should. And if ownership doesn't sign up for that, someone else will. So if I were his friend, I'd tell him you're going to be fine.

Whatever happens, you know, will so if i were his friend i'd tell him you're going to be fine uh whatever happens you don't you shouldn't have to feel like you're pot committed on darnold just because of the season that just happened telling an nfl head coach you're going to be fine i know even even these big contracts i mean what matt rule signed his big contract and i know kevin o'connell's a thousand times better of a coach but he signed that big contract you And I know Kevin O'Connell's a thousand times better of a coach, but he signed that big contract. You thought, well, they're going to have him there for five years.

Things go wrong in two and a half years. And you are out. I mean, the thing with JJ McCarthy is that there is, and, and this is coming from someone who watched every training camp practice and was blown away by JJ McCarthy's progress, but still like there is so much uncertainty with a quarterback who's never played before.

And not only never played before, but this isn't like a Jaden Daniels, a Bo Nix, a Michael Penix, somebody who developed over 17 years of college. This is somebody who was the youngest player coming out of all the quarterbacks in the draft. He was, what, just turning 21 years old when he was drafted and i think that if you're talking about putting uh this is this is getting inside of the coach brain of like if my quarterback isn't ready and the only other thing i have is daniel jones if he decides to come back he might just go compete with somebody else for a starting job and then what do you have like look at the at the, you got Snoop Huntley, like what, what else do you, and if he struggles

and he's not ready and it's a, you're just gonna, what have him look like Caleb Williams out there for the year and win seven games or something. And it's not to speak to his long-term because I think the person, the talent that he is long-term is going to be really good but i just putting myself in o'connell's shoes i might want to be overly ready the same way andy reed was overly i'm sure my homes would have figured it out the guy's like the greatest quarterback ever but he wanted to be overly ready and with the franchise tag you have an alex smith type of caliber quarterback with sam darnold that can get you to the playoffs for next season. So I don't, I honestly don't know. Cause you could make either argument. You could say,

well, if McCarthy struggles, O'Connell will have a five-year contract extension and he'll have space to work it out. Or you could say, well, if you're going to get the big contract extension as a coach and you got all these veteran players, you're going to want a quarterback who can get you back to the playoffs. And you're going to look at a longer term of JJ McCarthy, as opposed to say the bears who were desperate, Caleb Williams, you got to get out there because everyone wants to see you. And I'm Matt Eberflus and I'm going to get fired. So I think you could really look at this through two different lenses. I think ultimately that can come down to cost and you can be the team or the person that ignores that and just runs up debt and, you know, makes bad decisions, or you can sort of respect that. And where it gets even more interesting in

football is that that's not usually a coach's decision, you know, how to spend $41 million. I think in almost every case, including Daniel Jones with the Giants, teams that spend near the quarterback peak on guys everybody knows are mid end up losing for it and coaches get fired for it. Even Tua, for me, is maybe this. In Buffalo, we're always talking about the AFC East

and for two years, they're not really going to pay him, are they? Like, they're a winning team. They scored 70 points in a game. He lead the league in, you know, accuracy or whatever it was last year. As long as he stays healthy, sure, but they're not really going to pay Tua $45, $50 million a year. Are they? Because if they do, just go ahead and give the Bills some more division titles. And I mean, that's very harsh, but I think that's true. That's Tannehill in Miami,

that's Dalton in Cincinnati, that's Daniel Jones in New York, and it's 20 other examples. And for me, simply with respect to Darnold, it was a cool story, but it ended so terribly that I don't think they really have any choice. Well, they have a choice, but for me, it's, and again, like I'm a fantasy player. I don't know the people, so it's easy for me to say, but he would walk. I would try to trade him, you know, whatever the machinations of that are with his rights and everything like that, because there are six or eight teams in the NFL where he probably would start. And it's, it's something you can sell to the fans. I mean, a lot of these quarterback vagabonds, if you will,

in the league right now, you can't really sell them to your fans in a credible way. Like you're kind of a joke franchise will still be one if you walk out at a press conference and sort of put up Justin Fields or somebody like that at this point. So Darnold comes in above that, which gives him value to those other teams. But I mean, I wouldn't be worried about like a Snoop Huntley existence if I were Minnesota. Daniel Jones even has, I mean, for what he would cost, is kind of like a perfect backup idea for a team like that, to me, because he has played and, you know, your plan is McCarthy. The rookie deal is the Marissa Tomei biological clock and my cousin Vinny, where she's

stomping her feet, like, let's go here. And that's what i would do but again i'm on the outside i think it's a i think it's an easier call than maybe it seems well i think that everyone thinks it's a really easy call and i'm trying to add some layers of complexity to it because i don't think it is i mean i think that when you even bring up tua the, the problem with Tua, and they did pay him, is that he has a lack of playmaking ability. He has to have everything fall right into place and then he can throw it accurately. And he's, look what happens when he doesn't play, by the way, he's a great quarterback and he can get a team to the playoffs and can give you a chance. And I think that just like Sam Darnold, some of the narrative gets

written about him based on a game that he played in minus 14 degree weather in Kansas city and not on the body of work and where he puts your franchise when he plays at his best. Of course, the question is not, is this guy good at football? It's, is he good for a cost? And that's what complicates this. But I think that Darnold throughout the season had so many instances of elevating the team, even in games that they should have lost, that that's what makes this harder than just saying, well, it's just like Daniel Jones. They should have let him walk. It's just like to a, but like watch the Falcons game, the Seattle game, the green Bay game, and the number of times where Sam Darnold did special things.

And it's like the playoffs and late season stuff is men in black. It's just like you forget every single thing that happened. But I don't know that that's how they're going to do it. Everybody might be right. Everybody might be right. They might just say, you know what? That wasn't good enough. Clearly, he's not worth it.

And goodbye. Uh, but I don't know that that is entirely going to be the case. And we also just don't know how far along they think that McCarthy is in his recovery from the season ending injury and what they think it's going to take to get him back to full strength. Cause remember he was coming off of last year, winning a national championship, all the NFL combine stuff, getting ready and working with the QB gurus and all that sort of stuff coming in. He was ready for training camp in that way. Is he going to have a full off season?

We just don't know that of playing, you know, get preparing the same way that he was able to coming off of a full season last year. And is there is there going to take time to rebuild the amount of muscle that he needs to mean it's the the number one question of the offseason because there's going to be nine teams that need a quarterback and there's maybe two that might go in the first round and i'm skeptical on one of them so i'm on both i'm skeptical on all of them yeah i don't i mean this could be like 2022 where there's just nobody i i'm not a cam ward person uh but shadur sanders comes along with he holds on to the ball forever too and uh you know his dad and everything else like what's going to happen there so um there's going to be a lot of teams when they look around look at the other free agents who it's gardner minshu again for somebody somebody's getting justin. Somebody's getting Justin Fields.

Somebody's getting like you can't go to the playoffs. And with Sam Darnold, you can go to the playoffs if your team does well. That's good for Minnesota. There should be some way where they could cash in on that. I mean, you wouldn't want to, I said, let them walk maybe. You wouldn't want to necessarily do that. That depends on the market and everything you're laying out. I just wouldn't want to, I said, let him walk maybe. Like, you wouldn't want to necessarily do that. That depends on the market and everything you're laying out. I just wouldn't want him around, you know.

That player next year with the investment that's been made in McCarthy, he might not be physically ready, but he should be. You know, normally that injury in August wouldn't preclude you from being, and he's young. I mean, it wouldn't be a problem going into the next year. But again, like you said, we don't know those answers um but I just think like the Darnold thing for next year just sets up for one of these messy constant conversations about who should play your coach seems really good at that's like he's very poised and I think self-confident, but not in an arrogant sort of way.

I think he's kind of like the coach you want when you have a controversy or anything. He's handled some of this already in his career. So I like him for that. Some would just get totally flustered and lose it. And, you know, they would get fired. So I don't know. Very interesting situation i think like if if the raiders made an offer for darnold i don't even know like i said already i think i'm not sure what the rules are

when it comes to him like you would have to franchise him first and does that not is he still tradable if that happens i don't know but oh yeah oh absolutely yeah for sure i mean and that's one of the complicating factors is that the vikings are very short on draft capital for the coming years and i don't think the raiders would trade this year's first for sam darnold after what just happened uh maybe they would have if he had been incredible in the last two games but uh even if say the raiders were trading two second-round draft picks over the next two years, those are pretty valuable. Those are starting players.

And don't the Bills have Minnesota's second-round pick? Somebody does. They're strewn about. They're strewn about the nation. Here's one on the floor. Yeah, right. You just found maybe draft a defensive tackle with that but uh they they have four draft picks for this upcoming draft so and they're going to get

they might get some comp picks or they might spend a million dollars uh in a free agency and then not have all those comp picks that everybody loves to talk about so you know that's another thing that that they have to think about is in their longterm, they are going to need to draft players who matter to them. And if you traded Darnold for a pair of second round picks to Pittsburgh or somebody who just so badly needs a quarterback who can do anything, then you're talking about not only just two draft picks, $40 million in cap space versus signing him. That's a lot of assets for a general manager to work with. And then the general manager might also say we could do the same thing next

year if you want to give it another year. So I don't, I don't know, but I do know O'Connell can handle the quarterback controversy stuff. I don't think that that's something that he would struggle with for next year. So let's talk. By the way, sorry, Matt.

The Bills have Minnesota second from Houston. Because Minnesota traded with Houston last year, and they traded Diggs for that pick. So the Vikings second round pick is a Bills pick now. Right. And that only worked out for the Bills, I think, at least as of this moment. How about that? So we got a lot of action for this weekend.

And let's just talk about the games. And you can take it whatever fantasy angle you want to take it. I'm just – this is my first weekend to sit and watch football in quite some time. So I am very excited about that. Texas and Chiefs, you know, if with the Chiefs, if they hadn't played so darn good at the end of the year and they had sort of bumbled their way into the playoffs, I think we would be looking at this one and going,

hey, you know, this could be an upset. And the Texans do have the defensive ends versus tackles that have struggled this year, or maybe Joe Tooney playing left tackle. I don't know how they're going to handle that. But this is one where if you're the Chiefs, you have always won all the time, and you should win. What are your, I don't know, key factors?

Yeah, like that's it. That matchup is it. For years, it was two bi-week teams per conference the one and the two seeds would get buys and for a long time those teams absolutely dominated in this round the advantage of the bi-week really couldn't have been overstated and while there's recency bias Houston looked really good against the Chargers the Chargers offense was inept against those guys. Stingley in the secondary. There's life with Houston.

And Stroud, you know, he's good when he's good. So there's that to say about Houston. But don't forget, having watched that game, don't forget everything we know about the history and the importance of the bye. And then you get to Kansas City's, you know, experience in winning. I do think it's probably the kind of game like the first time they made the first time they played on that. Whatever that the Saturday wasn't Christmas. It was the other one in that sequence. That was a close game, you know, late in the third quarter.

The Chiefs sort of pulled away and covered and that was a close game you know late in the third quarter the Chiefs sort of pulled away and covered and that was that but it wasn't like it was a walkover like it was when the Texans played Baltimore so I think this probably you know should be a game that's interesting into the third quarter and then it's like all right well when it comes down to it is Patrick Mahomes going to make the play or not so I would give the points with the Chiefs. It's not a no-brainer for me, but just what we know about the history of teams on the bye week, plus the Chiefs had the Denver game the week before where they arrested their guys.

What did we say? Andy Reid in the lab is about as scary as it could be in the NFL. I don't think Houston's coaching is really all that. So I would go Chiefs here. Fantasy-wise, you know, I'm thinking now about some of these gauntlet teams, these underdog teams that I drafted. And, you know, really that's not – we're not setting lineups this week, right? So there are some Mahomes teams in my portfolio is the word we use for this. And just different Marquise Brown, Travis Kelsey, you know, even P.

Ryan, Pacheco, all those guys sort of mix in. The Chiefs were my Super Bowl pick. Not that it's that interesting because it's Kansas City, but with you last week. And I think getting Houston is a win for them. I thought the Chargers were the only team that could, well, had the best chance anyway of really scaring or even beating them in this round. And that's not going to happen. So Kansas City.

And with Houston, you know, how about Deontay Johnson being cut? These teams are desperate for guys. And the Ravens and then the Texans decided they were better off not even having him around uh in the playoffs so very very bad scenes for him yeah it sounds like he is uh really struggling with maybe not being the superstar wide receiver that he thought he was coming from Pittsburgh and Carolina was trying. And I mean, if you go back to the off season, we all thought, oh, Deontay Johnson's going to crush it in Carolina. And they stuck with him and threw him the ball. But once he went to Baltimore,

I mean, it's hard to change teams either way, but Baltimore also has other players that are ahead of you. And you're going to be a guy who's just sort of wide receiver for who's rotating in for 15 plays a game. And apparently he struggled with that issue. I saw our old friend, Bobby trees, Robert Woods talking about just how you have to accept the roles that, you know, Nico Collins is the guy and we're all here to support him. And that's just not something apparently Deontay Johnson was willing to do. to do but yeah that was that's funny because this just shows you that sometimes inside the walls of buildings they know things that the outside doesn't know because when carolina traded him away for nothing it was like what is carolina they just blew this one oh that's why that's why nobody was going to give up anything which means means that was a league-wide reputation.

Nobody else wanted to spend more than a fifth on Johnson. The league as a whole knew something that maybe we didn't. I mean, the Ravens, Matthew, they're throwing the ball to Anthony Miller in the playoffs because they didn't really think johnson was worth keeping around i mean we'll see like it's it looks really bad on him but baltimore goes into the buffalo game with maybe nose a flowers again and not exactly the deepest most impressive receiver room uh so with this one uh the preseason pick for me for the Super Bowl was Texans and Cowboys. Cowboys, not so much.

But one team remains alive, so we'll see if that happens. I really was amazed, though, last week about how C.J. Stroud looked like he was lost out there, and that guy is a fighter. That team, as you said, I think they have been found out in a lot of the scheme stuff that they did last year, and it's always the test of a great coach. How do you advance? How do you grow? How do you improve? And I think Bobby Slowik has some work to do there,

but C.J. Stroud made it happen last week. He deserves credit for that. That's not a great offense without its top receivers, but I think the chiefs are just too much here and Spagnola is going to be too much and, and all of that with, uh, lions and commanders. Uh, I don't think that the lions suddenly have an unbelievable defense because of what they did to the Vikings. Uh, but maybe they did figure some things out here. The commanders are, I think a lot worse than the Detroit lions, but I just love the idea of Jaden Daniels playing.

They're scrambling, making plays. I mean, it'll just always stick in my mind with Elijah can't see grabbing his towel because that, that like, that's the play of the game. That's the game,

right? The guy is just grabbing at it is air and getting a towel as Jaden Daniels runs away. Jaden Daniels is one of my favorite players to watch in a very long time. The quarterback position kind of similar to Lamar Jackson in that way. Every play can be something magical with him. But I have a tough time thinking the commanders are there yet. If I'm the rest of the NFC, I'm like, oh, great. They have four more years of his rookie contract

or three more years of his rookie contract. This one feels like Saturday is not going to be that exciting for us. Yeah, I tend to agree. Daniels is Jackson almost or about, but he's also so chill. Jackson is so keyed up all the time. And I think at times it works against him. Whereas Daniel's like, okay, I mean, I just got it. Don't worry about it.

I got it. He's more like Burrow in that way, which I love that as a trait. Same points apply here in terms of the bye week. The Lions didn't have the extra bye week, if you will, like the Chiefs did, not having to compete in week 18. But it's hard to worry about Detroit. You know, they're just so efficient and competent offensively. Can Washington really, like, put a stop to that?

You need golf to crack. And I think it's been long enough now, and there have been playoff games, too, where I really wouldn't want to expect that. And if that doesn't happen, Montgomery back as well for the Lions, it looks like, then Washington will just need to get everything right on offense. No turnovers, big plays, special teams, that kind of game. I talked with Trista Crick, who used to be with BetMGM on a pretty week, pretty much a weekly basis during the football season. She was on our WGR show yesterday and also like loves Daniels and everything. And she said, can you really see Washington getting blown out here? I'm like, yeah, I can't. I think it can be that kind of game. Great opportunity for Washington. I liked them last week, so I'm not surprised they won last week.

But even though Tampa was the one team to beat Detroit until the Bills did late in the season, I think you're stepping way up in class here. I feel like there are levels to this, and also that Jaden Daniels is on a similar path to CJ Stroud last year, where he gets the playoff win. He looks great. Everyone's excited about him, but your team's not there. And Detroit is also battle-tested in the playoffs. Their coaching staff is great.

And I certainly underestimated Aaron Glenn's ability to turn some things around on the Vikings. And I think that they'll be able to just have the ball the whole day. I don't think Washington's defense is very special, uh, onto Sunday though, Eagles and Rams, the Eagles all year long have been a great football team, but so often left something to be desired. And that was even the case against green Bay. The Eagles defense is so, so good. And Jordan love didn't play very well in that game, but there's always with Jalen hurts and their passing game this year. This doesn't apply to previous seasons where it cooked much better. It's just not really consistent,

smooth. It looks like things are hard. I, I think that the Rams at least will make this one close and interesting i you're on i like philadelphia a lot here uh without disagreeing with what you said about hertz and that offense it's been an interesting year for them you know it's really been all about saquon barkley certainly in a fantasy context it was all about Saquon Barkley. Certainly in a fantasy context, it was all about Saquon Barkley. But if Hurts is right physically, and that's not a given at this point.

I mean, he missed with a concussion and then he was in the tent for a minute there on Sunday. If he's right, I love them in this game. I mean, the Rams with the stress of last week and this week in L.A. and then having to travel and then play Monday night. Now you're going to Philly to play a noon body clock game on Sunday in the cold. I've never seen one Rams game played outside. I don't know if you've ever seen one. Not since that mud game in the playoffs. I think that's the last game they played outside. So for me, good luck. I doubt they'll be able to protect Stafford on the same level that they did.

And if they can't, it's like over for me. So I'm always a little bit nervous when I feel so confident about a game. But I like Philadelphia a lot here. You got A.J. Brown reading on the sideline. That's funny. Still should be pretty fresh. I mean, Green Bay, we talked about Green Bay maybe more than any other team over the course of the year than the Vikings or the Bills.

And what a frustrating, somewhat like the Vikings, right? What a frustrating and disappointing result to their season. In that division, really just only lost games to those other teams in the NFC North and then you draw the Eagles there and just like that is a tough a tough ask with injuries on offense too they were down their top three receivers at the time in this game Watson already having missed so a very good team green bay that just ended up having kind of a meaningless year in the end yeah and i mean i won't even do the snark thing about not having the number one wide receiver because josh allen apparently makes a little david palmer guy out there

remember david palmer it's that's who uh the johnson uh guy reminds me of. The little scat back who comes out of the backfield. You're like, oh, yeah. Number 22, he was a punt returner, played wide receiver and running back for the Vikings. His total carry count for his career might have been 100 in the NFL in the late 90s and early 2000s. He was a likable, memorable Minnesota Viking. If you watched them every day, I'm not going to stand in the way of that.

Yeah. So the, the audience will get the reference. Even if you don't, the point is just like Josh Allen's out here, turning a scat back into Larry Fitzgerald in the back of the end zone. So I don't know. He's different than Jordan love.

I think that's pretty clear. But as far as the game goes, fair points on traveling across the country, playing outside, all those things. Sean McVay is really good at his job. And I don't know if Nick Sirianni is as good at his job as Sean McVay, which may even it out. But you're right. There's a lot of factors there. The Eagles have a great offensive line, unlike the Vikings. There's a lot of emotional stress that the Rams have gone through with this shorter week than usual. All fair enough.

I'm just, all year long, I've kind of felt like that the Eagles, as they won and won and won, is it really as good as it looks? Maybe it is. All right, then now we got to get to... That's it, right? That's the whole list? That's the whole menu? Or is there one more?

No, I think that there is. I think it's the main course. And we're going to listen to Tony Romo hit pitches that maybe only dogs can hear on television when it comes to this game. I don't know what else to say other than this is just effing great. I mean, this is why you do it. This is why we watch football.

We go back. I watch old games all the time between Brady and Manning or whatever in the playoffs. This is just one of those that's special. Which I always get a kick out of because every time you reference one of the old games you watch, I'm like, oh, that was like two years ago.

But it was actually like 20 now. So yeah, it's beautiful. Even if you're sort of not into the MVP discourse this year, which has been pretty loud still, these two teams are brethren in having been good to great for like five years in a row or six in terms of Baltimore, both playoff teams, even in 2019. And still like short because Kansas City's won three times.

Even Burrow has gotten through. And here you have the two organizations with the one difference being that John Harbaugh has a championship going way back. Is it 2012 with Flacco? He's got that ring that no one else kind of in this situation really has. But still, the Ravens of the Lamar Jackson years, the Bills with Sean McDermott and Josh Allen have just not gotten home. And the winner of this game probably still has to go to Kansas City the following week. The loser of this game is what?

I mean, it's just the second round again for the Bills or a playoff failure again for the Ravens, for Jackson. I mean, it's just like super cold the way this will fall for one of these teams on Sunday. Baltimore is a road favorite, which is kind of incredible just for what the Bills have been this year. I mean, they have four losses, including week 18, where they didn't really try. One was to LA 44-42. One was to Houston way back in week five at the gun. And then the other is at the Ravens in week four, the only game this year, and like the second game in four years,

regular season, where the Bills were just sort of outclassed I mean that just almost never happens I love this so much you know what Buffalo the history very similar to Minnesota still longing for a championship it feels like it's right there just almost within their grasp but the task they have ahead is massive i think the bills and this is it starts with alan i mean if not coaches too but with alan they're just so good at the little things they they kincaid had a catch against denver that was not a catch but denver doesn't want to use its timeouts on a challenge if they don't know and alan is right there to snap the ball 35 yards down the field in about that amount of time. Like the Bills and Allen are so good at the, on the edges. And I don't think the Ravens are,

I mean, the Ravens are dominant and a lot of their victims are just like not able to handle the physicality, like just sort of the talent all of it both sides of the ball now they're awesome they're second all time in yards per play only the Kurt Warner Rams had more yards per play for a season in Baltimore 6.85 or something insane like that and they lost five games so there's no doubt how high their ceiling is I just don't think we're going to see it here. Like, I don't know if I sound like a homer here. I don't think of myself as one. But McDermott against Jackson in the past has been pretty sharp.

I think these players know what they're in for. If they can't handle, just like we said at the beginning of the show, when it comes to certain O-line, D-line matchups, you never know. If they can't handle the interior of the Ravens line and Henry, then they'll probably lose unless they can outscore Baltimore. But I expect the Bills haven't lost a fumble since week four against the Ravens. They're not turning the ball over at all. That can always change on a dime. And it did for the Chars. They're not turning the ball over at all. That can always change on a dime, and it did for the Chargers. So we know the lesson can be you never know with that. But I trust the Bills

more than I trust the Ravens in a playoff game in Buffalo. Matthew, the smallest details, the timing. Baltimore is just brilliant on these run-pass option, these read-option plays at home. I mean, there's no noise, and it's like, go. In Buffalo, cold, windy, loud. The slightest change to that timing could just be fatal to a team like this. And they're not going to throw the ball down the field meaningfully. They've got two tight ends. They're just going to try to out-muscle the Bills in this game,

just to put it simply. And I don't really trust them to do it without a few mistakes that I think will be the difference. So I'm on Buffalo in this game. I think there's a big enough sample size, too, of playoffs to say Josh Allen is an astounding player in the postseason i mean he is we used to talk about this sometimes with clutch and things like that and the funny stat to me was always that derrick cheater's slash line was the same

in the regular season as it was in the playoffs but the thing about that is he was facing the best teams and the best pitchers and he was still hitting 320 in the playoffs. But the thing about that is he was facing the best teams and the best pitchers, and he was still hitting 320 in the playoffs. And for Allen, when you're facing the best defenses and the best teams and year after year, the Kansas cities, and he's played well enough to win every game against Kansas city. And it just hasn't worked out for kickers or drop passes or whatever it might be 13 seconds and so forth, but he's played that good in the playoffs. He seems to feel nothing in the playoffs. Whereas Lamar Jackson definitely does at times. And especially if they're not blowing somebody out, I feel like he will start to press and he'll start to throw the ball to places. He shouldn't necessarily throw it, or he

won't run as much as you've talked about before where last year he just stopped running that Jackson feels a shade more fallible in these type of situations than Allen does especially with the atmosphere and there's probably what five to seven places that home field advantage still matters I could tell you one of them is absolutely Buffalo New York where it matters and that place is going to be going berserk and the weather and all that stuff. It all kind of points toward Allen, but in a game like this, what's so hard to figure is which quarterback will do something that just is breathtaking and changes the game. What Allen did last week, that throw to the back of the end zone. It was just, I don't know, guys, he came from space. That's how, that's how that that's

happening. That's my only explanation. Mahomes has done this to people for years. How did he do it? I don't know. Some people were born under power lines and there's just no explanation. Both of these quarterbacks are like that, but from a week to week, big game basis, it's not always something that happens. It's like, which guy gets the last thing that doesn't make any sense. And then the other part of it is that both of these teams like to control the time of possession. They both like to have long drives. They both like to run the ball. And as much as we treat running, like it doesn't matter. It's just whatever. When teams rely on their run games, cook has been phenomenal. And then Derek Henry is all time. Great. If the Ravens can control the game,

especially early, they can make it a little bit more tricky and Lamar can get comfortable and shake off the nerves or whatever he's feeling at that time if they start right out with a long Derrick Henry drive and if I recall that Buffalo Baltimore game earlier this year Henry was incredible in that game and if he's that way again it will be a lot harder for the Bills he ran for an 87 yard touchdown on their first play and then went for 199 in the game. So it was always Baltimore's game. It really is a throwback sort of matchup in a really fun and ironic way with what the

league has been. And you have MVP quarterbacks, but you have the Ravens who literally line up for plays with like seven or eight 300-pound guys. You've got this fullback, Ricard, who is really important in their offense. They lose Zay Flowers. It's likely who goes in. Like, they're just massively big. And then you have Buffalo.

The Bills have used a sixth offensive lineman far more than any other team this year. Alec Anderson is the player. He goes in motion. I mean, he's a tackle. But that's what has helped open cook up this year to the tune of 16 touchdowns. And they throw out of it because you have to get bigger to avoid getting run over. And the threat of Allen doing that, too. So they're taking defenses out of how they want to play how they've

kind of built their roster to play in this passing league right and now you've got a season where which is what makes the nfl so fascinating and fun is you've got like the running teams have survived detroit being another philadelphia being another here we are into the second round and even daniels in was Washington and these teams that have kind of built their airplane out of the running game have really thrived. Well, this is two of those teams, both with quarterbacks in very different ways stylistically and overall who can beat you. Allen runs you over, Jackson runs by you. I just feel like the Bills are going to be not susceptible to mistakes like the Ravens. I just don't trust the Ravens. I think I've already said it, and so have

you, in quite the same way. I love it. Kind of takes me back to Jim Kelly, Dan Marino. You know, just put it on. We're getting back there a little bit farther now. That's good. That's good. We're back. We're back to the nineties at least. But you know, those games, this is, I think you would agree with this.

There's an age where this becomes like part of your DNA, where you remember the games, but you're also young enough to just enjoy them and not make them about the salary cap for next year or something, which is probably what like eight to 14 or somewhere in that range. And that's just for me, that's Jim Kelly and John Elway or Jim Kelly and Dan Marino and all those big games in Buffalo. So every time they have one like this with another all-time great quarterback,

it's like, I know this feeling and it sort of sparked something. I mean, I always have that for a lot of football, but you know, especially when it's there, when it's under those lights, and those are the games and kind of wish Van Miller was calling the game, you know, that kind of thing. So that's a deep reference that only my three Buffalo listeners will know. But you know what I mean. The legendary voice of the Bills for almost their entire history,

just about until he died. It's still the second round. I think the story is the loser of this game more than it's the winner. If Houston wins on Saturday, then okay. The winner of this team is playing at home and will be a touchdown favorite in the AFC Championship and maybe the Super Bowl favorite at that point. But it'll be interesting how this game is remembered.

If it's a classic, it's a classic. But the winner is likely to be an underdog or just a road team, not necessarily an underdog. The Ravens are favored here, and I think the Bills are better than the Chiefs, just in a vacuum. necessarily an underdog the Ravens are favored here and I think the Bills are better than the Chiefs just in a vacuum so maybe the winner of this game is favored in Kansas City if that's what we get speaking of underdog since Vikings fans will not be focused on anything except for sitting around and watching other teams play a great way to spice

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Underdog, by the way, too, really good at like just different specials where you can first touchdown in one of their, I don't know what it's called, but if you pick who's going to score the first touchdown in three of the games, they sort of give you an insurance sort of thing where, I don't know, I shouldn't try to explain it because I don't know what it's called, but if you pick who's going to score the first touchdown in three of the games, they sort of give you an insurance sort of thing where, I don't know, I shouldn't try to explain it because I don't know it, but I know with underdog, there's always something new that is sort of a fun way to enjoy sports. And the drafts, of course, like for me in the gauntlet, which was their $25 postseason best ball tournament, the challenge there was, and I'm not answering your question, am I? It's not a pick-em answer.

It's a gauntlet answer. But trying to get through the first week, the wild card week, while also drafting Chiefs and Lions, who didn't play. It would necessarily be zeros in the first week. So you'll love to wake up to a few of these playoff teams where you've made it, but you've also got Jameer Gibbs or Travis Kelsey on them, what have you. That's what I'm enjoying most about underdog right now.

And before you know it, get ready. Next year, never too early, big board stuff. That'll probably pop in less than a month. The Superbowl, as we're talking here on January 15th is one month from, well, no, it's less than a month.

It's the ninth, isn't it? So around then is when I think underdog usually launches their next year stuff. And let's go. I don't know if you're going to want to talk about that with me, but I'll definitely be playing. All right.

Well, I think we'll have time since I won't be traveling to cover any games. Let's let me just throw a couple of big stars at you for hires and lowers on underdog. Patrick Mahomes heard of him. 247.5 yards higher or lower on Mr. Mahomes. Lower. It's been that kind of year.

If they get ahead, 21 to 3 or something like that. I feel like a lot of what they're doing is short. I don't know how that number stacks up with his averages but i'm guessing it's right in line because why would it be the number then um i kind of like lower on him have they scored 30 points once this year yes yes but the the broadcasts they love the stat of like, they haven't scored over 30 points this year, but it is 30 is 30 over 30. Or is it just 30? I don't know. I don't make the graphics.

Uh, Jameer Gibbs, 112.5 total yards. Would you go higher or lower on that? I'm going to say higher because I'm trying to play the player. And Montgomery being back would soften enthusiasm for Gibbs and his stats in this game. He's coming off four touchdowns against Minnesota. I know you were there. And I think just sort of the instinct on him would be lower because of Montgomery.

But because of that, I would go higher. What do you think? I would go higher because he is the centerpiece of their offense. And I also think that they may have realized Montgomery's a good player. Jameer Gibbs might be one of the best running backs. I don't know. I don't want to say ever because they don't last forever.

But as far as peak goes, kind of reminded me of a Chris Johnson type of peak where this guy is lightning. And I think that they may have realized that he's not delicate and you could play him for whole games and he'll be fine and just dominate. And also that it was okay to draft him, I guess. Well, yes. Oh, for the Lions to draft him and in fantasy also to draft him. And he's one of the many fun ones for next year because we don't know yet what these rosters are going to look like, but Montgomery may be still there. Gibbs or Barkley next year.

Barkley probably comes in as the higher pick, but not for me. I'll be drafting Jefferson instead. I'll be drafting C.D. Lamb instead, just betting against the old running backs. I'll just go down hard on this one and give me Jameer Gibbs at like 105. Well, there's definitely running back regression from year to year anyway. Christian McCaffrey certainly ran into that. OK, two more. Derrick Henry, 95.5 rushing yards lower just game script

to the last couple of weeks they got so far ahead at home and henry just busted it up in the second half of those games or maybe it was late second quarter in the Pittsburgh game, got there. I mean, he's well over 100 yards. But don't love it in Buffalo, different environments. You brought up a point that I've made about Jackson last year in the playoffs, not wanting to just sort of go with the ball. The absolute opposite is happening lately for Baltimore. They just ran him over and over. He kept the ball in all those plays over and over in those games recently,

the game against the Steelers. So Henry usually gets his, it's yards. It's never comfortable to pick against Derrick Henry, but 95 and a half is still a great day for a running back rushing only. I would go lower, you know, not, I would not be sheepish to go lower on that. Okay. Last one, Joshua Allen, be sheepish to go lower on that okay last one joshua allen 290.5 total yards so rushing and

passing 290.5 lower tougher game um the denver game even like for much of that game he was way down in passing yards and then a couple of big plays, the Samuel play kind of got them. The Kincaid catch that wasn't a catch, like that was 90 of his yards. And while he ran a few times, nothing really prolific. I bet Baltimore, Baltimore is just not an easy mark when it comes to that. So I like the lowers in this game for the key men. Okay. Higher or lower 1.5 taunting penalties that we see in this game.

What was the, what was the verbiage? It was like a aggressive stomping or something, a rising, but the, the TV ref used some preposterous language. Like it was a rising and a stomping of the leg. And you're like, yeah, that's and you're like yeah that's true i mean that's true but also i walk doing yeah most you want to see most of my walking there's a rising and a falling if not a stomping depending on how much snow's on the ground yeah uh matt collins in the denver game not the bill's reputation uh but there's so much on the line here, you never know. All right.

Mike Shope, the Deep End Fantasy Football Podcast, ADP Chasing as well. If you are into the fantasy or might just be worth keeping an eye on your WGR 550 coverage in the game of the week. So I'm excited for you, and I'm excited for me to have a week end of just watching football.

It has been a while. So thank you so much for your time. We'll carry on through the Super Bowl here on the show. So I'll enjoy breaking these playoff games down with you, Mike. Thanks for your time. Thank you. Of course. See ya.