Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Josh Larky of 33rd team looks at future playoff matchups for the Vikings

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

Josh Larky works as 33rd team's fantasy and gambling analyst, so he joined Matthew Coller to break down what matchups might be most favorable for the Vikings in the playoffs. He talks about whether the Vikings are a good Super Bowl bet and why Justin Jefferson's for offensive player of the year is a solid play.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me on the show is Josh Larkey from the 33rd team, which is very interesting. If you don't follow it on Twitter, you really should. There aren't too many other places where you can get access to the comments of many NFL legends and current players and things like that. So you should go check that out. But also Josh Larkey is the director of

fantasy and gambling there also is on XM serious as well. What is up Josh? Welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. I am ready to talk some Minnesota Vikings. Well, we need to start off though, by having a little bit of the conversation we were having just before we went on, which is that you are a chargers fan. Uh, and I feel like there's no better connection between an AFC and NFC franchise than the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles chargers.

It's like, uh, not everyone understands what Vikings fans have been through, but you do. Oh, a hundred percent. It's like not everyone understands what Vikings fans have been through, but you do. Oh, 100%. I can confidently say that as a lifetime Chargers fan, I realize that you should not neglect the special teams. Coaching matters.

There are so many life lessons that just get hammered into your head when you root for a team like the Chargers or the Vikings. But at least for Vikings fans this year, I think there's room for some optimism when you have a five-game divisional lead 12 weeks into the season. So you know what? This year has been good for the Vikings. Chargers, we're still Chargers. Let's be honest.

We lose our franchise left tackle. Our entire wide receiver core is wiped out due to injury. Our entire defense is decimated like it always is. But the Vikings, you guys look pretty good right now. Well, the Chargers couldn't stop you and me running the football. So, yeah, they maybe are going to need some improvements if they're going to actually compete. They were my preseason pick to go to the Super Bowl,

and I really shouldn't have uh gone against kansas city or buffalo um though buffalo's got you know they've got some weaknesses there but kansas city not uh not so much but you know it's interesting that uh there's been like kicker snafus for both the vikings and the chargers and a few years ago the vikings brought in nate cading to help their kickers. And it's like, what are you just a fan of irony at this point? Right. Like Nate Kading, really? The guy known for that, even though he was a great kicker, but also known for missing, you know, a pretty important kick.

So, yeah, there's a there is a lot of synergy there. But the difference for sure between this year's teams is definitely on the health side where the Chargers have gotten beat up and had a bunch of injuries. The Vikings have been healthy, and the Vikings do actually have great special teams but a shaky kicker. So that couldn't possibly cause any problems. But I want to start out with this, Josh. Let's talk just Vikings big picture here in general if you were putting a bet on the vikings like how far they go where where do you start that conversation because when you go to

nine and two when they beat the new england patriots the the conversation went from like oh is this team gonna fall off and were they lucky and all those things to now like okay what can they really be like how would you go through that process to figure out like would i bet on the vikings for a first round out for divisional for you know to go to the championship weekend like how would you start thinking about that so well i think one of the things that i would start to do is i think it's actually just a good exercise for people in general. It only takes you 20 minutes. Just map out the schedules of all the NFC teams that you think have some type of shot to make the playoffs and start going through the games that you think are an obvious win, an obvious loss or some type of coin flip.

And that right there can sort of help you get the range of outcomes, because I think that's what a lot of people miss when they're they're putting their money down on football is they're not really thinking about what this range of outcomes looks like especially when we're doing the long shot bets like vikings to win the super bowl vikings to get through this round anytime it's not uh some very obvious like minus 150 that the the vik this or that, or like Vikings make the playoffs. Of course, they're going to make the playoffs. We don't, we don't really need to worry about that specifically. It immediately becomes, let's look at more of the long shots. Let's try and figure out what we actually think is going to happen in terms of who are they going to get that first round by compared to the Eagles. So kind of stacking those two teams up. And then from there,

looking at who that weak wildcard team is that they're probably going to play in that first round. I think that's really important. It's starting to figure out how they stack up against the three, four teams that they're most likely to play. So that's generally where I would start, because if you're not doing that, you're going to lose money because you want to know who does that Vegas. When Vegas is setting those lines, they do that. So if you're not already going through that elementary exercise, you're essentially throwing money away.

And that if you win money, I cannot say that you earned it. I would say that you probably just got lucky. So I think that's a really important first step is you want to do at least some research that the sports books love. Nothing more than a Joe football who gets off his couch, important first step is you want to do at least some research that the sports books love nothing more than Joe football, who gets off his couch and walks over to the computer and says, I love the Vikings and places a bet that that is not the long-term path to success. So I would say that

that's the good first step just to sort of see, okay, on paper, how do I think these teams are matching up now that I actually can see what the matchup is probably going to be, am I quite as excited? And I'll give you an example of that. The Patriots were perfect. People were terrified about how the Vikings matched up against the Patriots. And if you're terrified about that matchup, you probably should not be laying down a ton of money on the Vikings. Obviously they passed that test with flying colors. They beat the Patriots, but I think that that type of thought experiment is really important to say, okay, well, who, who are we actually going to play? If you face the Buccaneers, are you going to be confident? Maybe you are. And I think that that's really important is to start getting that process going. Yeah. Let's talk about that because the path to the Vikings getting the one seed seems

a little shaky to me. Now that the Vikings don't have a hard schedule here coming up. I think this matchup with the Jets is particularly difficult because the Jets defense is good, but you go down the stretch here and you got to go to Detroit. They're playing pretty plucky football as Dan Campbell's team does face the Giants. That's not an easy matchup. They're playing pretty plucky football, as Dan Campbell's team does. Face the Giants. That's not an easy matchup. They've got a winning record, but they're also a little spotty. Indianapolis, I mean, you should win that one. Chicago and Green Bay, like who even knows what those teams are going to look like at that point?

Chicago is probably the worst team in football if Justin Fields isn't starting that's not named the Texans. And then, you you know Green Bay at this point is a very very beatable team as the Vikings showed really from day one of the season so the Vikings don't have a schedule that really terrifies you but I was looking at Philadelphia and they don't really either they have a matchup with Tennessee a couple of games against the Giants that I think they could probably win uh how how do you put odds on that one like do you think that the Vikings have a chance to get the one seed? Because I think it's going to be pretty difficult.

Do they have a chance? Yes, I think it would be pretty difficult as well because the Eagles have the better record. They're 10-1 while the Vikings are 9-2. And their schedule is just a little bit easier. The Vikings do have the easy schedule, but I think that was part of the thesis behind the Eagles making the playoffs at the start of this season was that, hey, we don't even know if the Eagles are good or not. It doesn't matter. Their schedule is just one of the easiest that

we've ever seen on paper. So what I would be doing is focusing on what these likely wildcard matchups are. It's probably going to be someone like the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Seattle Seahawks. That's probably going to be the type of team that you end up facing in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah. And when I look at those matchups, I think that, you know, that's another thing you have to factor in is just even how those teams might potentially match up. In your mind, who do you think that Vikings fans should be rooting for and against as far as matchups because that's that's kind of what the rest of the season is for Vikings fans is is seeding where

are you going to end up who are you going to end up playing so then the rest of Sundays also becomes and Saturdays soon uh also becomes hey what's this team doing or what's that team doing I tend to think that teams with really, really good defenses, the Vikings should be a little anxious about. I know what they just did to New England, but you also saw what Dallas was able to do to them and even Washington that shut them down for a large portion of the game in DC. How would, how would you pick which team you would pick for them or not to face? Yeah, I'll give a nice little dichotomy between two NFC East teams, the New York Giants, Washington Commanders. If I'm a Vikings fan, I want to play the New York

Giants. We know that the Vikings have generally gotten it done through their offense this year. I don't think I'm surprising anyone when I say that the Vikings do not have a playoff caliber defense. They are very well coached and their offense is quite good. The Giants, all of the advanced metrics, when you're looking at their defense, they're really bad on defense. And I think a lot of people don't realize that because the Giants have almost exclusively been involved

in low scoring games. I think that sometimes gets attributed to, oh, this is, well, the Giants must have a bad defense then. Well, actually, or it must have a good defense if they're, they're not allowing a lot of points. And it's like, well, actually this is a run first offense. That's kind of just good enough to keep the ball moving and keep some time of possession. So if they're running a lot, they're running down the clock, they're already sucking out a lot of these plays. The play volume is going to be lower. And a lot of their teams that they've played,

the offense just wasn't very good. And if I'm looking, I like football outsiders. I think that's a good site. If I just want to get a quick snapshot of how good is this team. The Giants, 28th against the pass, 27th against the run. This is essentially like a bottom five defense against the pass, 27th against the run. This is essentially like a bottom five defense against the pass and the run. And you wouldn't really know that

from seeing that they're seven and four, from looking at the games they've been in. Whereas the Washington Commanders, their pass defense has been better as of late. And I think we all know at this point that this is maybe the best run defense in the NFL. It's probably them or the Titans at this point. And for a team like

the Vikings, where so much of their success is run through Dalvin Cook, setting up the run, setting up play action, a team like the commanders, that's essentially forcing you to throw. That's not really what you're going to want as a Viking stand where suddenly your, your game plan has to shrink. So I think out of those two teams where they're, both of those are likely candidates to kind of be that, that seven seed. I would much rather play the giants. If I was a Vikings fan. No, I think you're completely right. Also. I think the Taylor Heineke is like a shade more scrappy than a Daniel Jones, but I don't know that either one of them is good, but the way that the Vikings matched up in Washington and I'll be interested to see how they play against the Giants, but in Washington, the defensive line really caused the Vikings a lot of problems.

Like you said, the Vikings could not run against them, and then every time Kirk Cousins dropped back, he was getting pressured, but they could only rush four and still create a ton of pressure on Kirk Cousins, which allows them to put the safety over Justin Jefferson. And for a good section of that game, Jefferson was not dominant. Like it was at the very beginning and at the very end of that game. But they did probably as good of a job as you could do against him by pressuring the quarterback.

And you're always concerned with a Cousins fumble, a Cousins interception that you saw against Dallas, that strip sack by Micah Parsons right away just caused the whole offense to kind of melt down. The Giants really, I mean, they have some guys who could get after the passer, but they really don't have the same violence up front that Washington has. Is there a chance that the Giants miss the playoffs altogether? Because I look at this team as the most papery tiger of paper tigers and with the schedule that they have the Vikings are on it and the Philadelphia Eagles twice

I mean it feels to me like they could be that team that we all like anointed and Brian Dable coach of the year and everything else and they've also had injuries as well that they could just fall off the map completely here yes i think that's definitely a possibility where we could see from the nfc east the other three teams make it so we'd have so i guess divisional winners we i think we can kind of assume that it's going to be the buccaneers it's going to be the vikings probably the 49ers they have the one game lead now on the seahawks i think they're just a better team. And then I think the Eagles win the NFC East.

So already we've got our four teams for the wild cards. We could do the Cowboys and the commanders, Cowboys, eight wins, commander seven wins, and then the Seahawks at six and five getting that final spot. And then next, you know,

the giants are out of it. So I think that is quite a likely scenario where I think the, the two oddest teams out at this point would be the Giants probably followed by the Seahawks that one's really tough between Seahawks and commanders but I think the the Seahawks Giants I think one of them gets the seventh seed the other probably doesn't make the playoffs okay tell me if if I, hey, somebody really shocked us and got into the playoffs, who would it be? Would it be Detroit, Atlanta? One of my favorite things every year is the In the Hunt graphic, which includes teams that really aren't actually in the hunt at all. Like Indianapolis was making In the Hunt graphics.

Like, come on, man. Did you just need another team to fill out the graphic? You know, your team here. Indianapolis is not in the playoff race, man. Did you just need another team to fill out the graphic? You know, your team here, Indianapolis, is not in the playoff race, guys. But, you know, Detroit is kind of hanging around and has been playing much better football lately. Atlanta keeps stepping on its own feet a little bit at the end of some of these games. But there's still plenty of football to be played here.

So I guess which one of those teams would shock you? So I'll give you two teams. The super long shot based on record, I would give it to the Packers. Quarterback is so important in this league. Being able to have Aaron Rodgers, it seems like he should return and play in Week 13 after his injury scare this past week. That's just so important.

On paper, this looks like a good defense. Decent offensive line, some young receivers that are starting to come to their own, like Christian Watson. They are four and eight. I think that they are a – they're not a playoff team, but this is the team that I could see making the run out of all these teams that just have terrible records. I'm going to be kind of – maybe this is boring. Maybe this is fun, but I think the Falcons are

a legit playoff contender given their division. So the Buccaneers are five and six, the Falcons are five and seven. So already they are neck and neck. I think the Buccaneers are such on paper. They're so much better. However, they've been hit with some injuries when their roster is aging like it is in tampa bay there's just uh a lot of things that can start to go wrong for you we've seen it with the rams this year where how all of a sudden everything collapses for the rams aaron donald's now injured as well cooper cups injured alan robinson's injured when you're you're playing with fire when it's almost entirely a roster of veterans,

the Buccaneers just lost their young franchise left tackle, Tristan Wirfs, to an ankle sprain for the next month. I think there's paths to the Falcons sneaking in there and winning that division. I think the Packers would be my favorite long shot just based on their track record. Having Aaron Rodgers, the defense does look good many games and then uh on the other side it's like hey the falcons are actually right there and i do not think they have a good roster but the style of football that they play invites close games it's a defense that is pretty bad but at the same time, they force some turnovers.

They do have some young talent that has been injured this year. So we're not quite sure what's going on with them. But like AJ Terrell is maybe the best cover corner in the NFL. And he's been struggling with injuries this year. And then on offense, nobody has been able to stop the Falcons run game. So I think they would be the sneakiest team to get in there. But as a Vikings fan, you wouldn't really have to worry about them contending for a wild card. You would not be

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round, because whoever gets to play, if Atlanta, or I mean, even Tampa Bay, whoever wins that division, it's like whoever gets to play them if they were to win a first round matchup. I mean, wow. You're like the luckiest team. And that's what we talk about kind of all the time with just the path to the playoffs makes so much of a difference. And I remember Gary Kubiak saying like, this is why all of us think you just try to get

in the playoffs and then hope. I mean, if you're not a great team now, normally that hasn't been the best model in the world for getting all the way. But with as random as this year is and as many close games as there are this year, it feels like the best year to make that type of argument that if you just get in, you're going to have a chance unless you're Atlanta. Then you have no chance. But yeah, I think a good example is the Rams last year. Nobody at the start of the playoffs was like oh that the rams are the team to beat no one thought that and they got hot their roster had a lot of solid veterans and they all stepped up and i think the vikings actually

have a a similar type of roster where they have a few really really good star players and then the rest of the roster is just kind of average. And I think that when it comes to the playoffs, if you have your star step up, that can really carry you on a game to game basis. What do you make when you compare these teams? I mean, you said earlier, and I agree with you, like the Vikings don't exactly have a Super Bowl caliber defense, but they cause a lot of turnovers and they make a lot of plays at important times, which can be random for sure. Like, I mean, they've had other teams with the ball with a chance to go tie or win

pretty much week after week after week. And they've always gotten those stops, whether it's, you know, a Patrick Peterson interception against Josh Allen or, you know, last week, Mac Jones getting sacked by Daniel Hunter or whatever. Like it, there's always just been a play to be made. And I tend to think that for the Vikings, that great players make great plays right at kind of the biggest time. So it's Peterson, it's Hunter, it's the Darius Smith, um, because that's sort of their moment, Harrison Smith. But I also think that there's a part of me that's more analytical that says,

I don't know if you could just rely on that every single week of, hey, your defense has gotten gashed for an entire game, and then you just have to make one play at the end of a game. That's a pretty hard thing to rely on. But I also think that defense is sort of noisy and weird. I mean, you mentioned Los Angeles, where their defense was unbelievable the year before. And then last year, it was like, okay. I think they were sort of middle of the pack. But then in the playoffs, they were amazing at the biggest times, especially when they were called upon to stop San Francisco

when they needed a big stop or a big play at the end of the game to get there or stop the Cincinnati Bengals on their potential final drive. So there's some of that if we're drawing that comparison, but also I look at where they rank as far as the yards, they give up yards per play and go Devante Parker shouldn't be getting 40 yard passes against you. So I think if, if I were an NFL GM building a team, I would build it through the offense. You were kind of hinting at it, that defense it's a little bit noisy.

It is not the most sticky year to year. Last year's good defenses are often not the next year's good defenses. Whereas with offense, generally the good offenses from last year, assuming they're not losing a quarterback are going to be the next year's good offenses and usually when an offense falls off like the Packers it's predictable and hey if you lose Devonta Adams if you lose Marquez Valdez Scantling losing your your top two wide receivers might actually matter so I think a lot of the the fall-offs that we'll see it's like hey, hey, I kind of saw that one coming,

whereas if we look at the offenses that are good each year, I think everyone out there would have been shocked if the Vikings were a terrible offense this year, right? You'd be like, hey, we have Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Jefferson, Thielen, but this looks on paper like a good offense, and yeah, if those guys stay healthy, it's probably going to be a good offense.

Defense, it's just generally not the case. We can see these defenses go through cold stretches, hot stretches. And I think a lot of it is because it's reacting to the offense and that it all kind of starts with the offense. So if I was building a playoff team and oftentimes when I'm looking at playoff matchups, I'm just going to start with the offense and say,

all right, let's just first off, which teams do I think regardless of defense are going to be able to score points in this matchup? And I think that's where a team like the New York Giants probably going to struggle where they've been in a lot of really close games. It seems like they've won a lot of stuff through coaching and it's going to be tough for this team that now has no wide receivers to consistently put up points. Yeah, no, that's I think that the multitude of weapons is all is really kind of where I would begin. Even with the Packers, sometimes they would get into the playoffs and teams would find a way to slow down Devante Adams just enough. I think as the Vikings, their huge acquisition, and I know that you've thought about this a little bit with TJ Hawkinson, since he was acquired from the Vikings,

number one in receptions for tight ends, which is not surprising at all because it seemed like Kirk Cousins badly needed a security blanket, but also they've been able to dial up. I was just watching back the game last night. Some little things like a play action where he sneaks under the formation and makes it like 12-yard catch or something. It's like even something as little as having a guy who can do that, who can run after the catch a little bit, who can go down the field a little bit. I think that if we're looking at difference-making things to watch down the stretch that could be big in the playoffs, Hawkinson's acquisition goes right at the top of the list because they still haven't gotten a ton out of Adam Thielen,

and they haven't gotten anything out of K.J. Osborne, which is really surprising, I think, to all of us. They don't seem to want to use Jalen Rager very often, and then Delvin Cook in the passing game has been completely non-existent. So it seems to me like Hawkinson could be one of those swing players where you talk about teams with one weapon or that rely on one player. I think that that can get shut down in the playoffs, but Hawkinson could be a legitimate difference maker.

I agree there. So Hawkinson has played four games with the Vikings. He has out-targeted Adam Thielen in three of those four games. And I think that was really the right move to make. Where you have Adam Thielen, he is a trusted veteran. Would we say that he is getting better? No. He's either stagnating or declining.

I don't think that's saying anything too crazy. He's in his early 30s. He has a long history of ankle injuries. Hawkinson is the opposite, mid-20s. He's got that early first-round pedigree. This is an ascending player, and that's generally what you want,

is you want to have multiple ascending players. Dalvin Cook, I think he's maintaining. I wouldn't say he's declining like Thielen. Dalvin Cook, maintaining. Kirk Cousins, probably maintaining. Jefferson ascending, and. Kirk Cousins, probably maintaining. Jefferson, ascending. And now we have Hawkinson ascending. I think that's really important to get that second young ascending player in there.

And I think in terms of what Hawkinson is bringing to this offense, like you said, the security blanket. Let's pivot for one second. We'll sneak in. I know you wanted a few betting takes. TJ Hawkinson, anytime touchdowns are probably going to be mispriced. For some reason, the market just doesn't seem to adjust

to tight end usage like they should. So last week, one of my biggest Thanksgiving Day bets was TJ Hawkinson anytime touchdown. The odds put it at around a one in three and a half chance of happening. It ended up happening. You can make quite a bit of money doing that.

And the reason is that TJ Hawkinson has actually been heavily utilized in the red zone and in the end zone. He now has eight red zone targets in four games. That's two red zone targets per game. So already he's being used in the area of the field that matters most. And through four games, he's actually gotten a target where he is literally standing in the end zone when he's targeted three times now in four games, this guy is going to put up more touchdowns, the rest of the season.

His usage is quite elite. You guys basically acquired Travis Kelsey, but light version where it's like the guy's not as good as Kelsey, but you're basically using him like Kelsey where he's being heavily targeted. And he is one of the featured red zone end zone type weapons. So I think those are very profitable bets to take going forward, assuming that it stays in that plus 200 ish range because Hawkinson at this point with his usage has no business being there.

There's still kind of this, the stink of him with the lions remaining. And at this point, I think we just have to say, wow, he is a completely different tight end with the Vikings. This is a better offense. It is clearly a better fit for him as a pass catcher. Yeah. I mean, he's also really wide receiver too, for this team at this point. And Thielen is more of their wide receiver three. And Osborne is a player with a jersey who is allowed to run around. I mean, that's just I'm very surprised by that because of the way that Osborne played last year. But I mean, fit in an offense can be everything unless you're Justin Jefferson and then you can just fit in any situation ever. But you're right about Hawkinson and being a red zone target because

there's so much attention drawn to Justin Jefferson in the red zone. It's sort of like the Julio Jones thing where it's like Julio Jones doesn't catch touchdowns. Like that's because other teams put all of their players on Julio Jones. And I mean, Justin Jefferson is not much of a red zone option because everybody tries to take him away and that's where Hawkinson comes in speaking of Jefferson I want to ask you this one and this one I understand this is not really that realistic but Justin Jefferson MVP is not the crazy craziest thing I've ever heard when you look at what he means to the offense he is the offense I mean they had to acquire Hawkinson so anyone else could do anything with this with this But really, if you've watched any of the Vikings games this year,

I mean, you know, this it's throw to somebody for three yards, throw to somebody for five yards, just to Jefferson, 30 yards is their whole offense. And the numbers he's putting up are pushing on historic. I mean, I, I know that myomes is probably going to win the MVP or Tua is probably going to win the MVP, but is it insane to talk about Jefferson in this conversation? So I think we can talk about Jefferson in this conversation in terms of theoretically, if the Vikings lost Justin Jefferson, what would this team look like? But I would not put any money on a non-quarterback to win the MVP.

We have to go all the way back to 2006 with LaDainian Tomlinson to find the last MVP. That was not a quarterback. We also know that the NFL is trending more quarterback, heavy, more quarterback centric. It's where a lot of the advertising money goes. It is just from watching football.

You can tell that the quarterback is the most important player on the field. So from 2007 through 2021, it has been all quarterbacks. 2022, I think it's going to be a quarterback again. I don't really know what Justin Jefferson would have to do to win the MVP, but we just saw last year Cooper Cup

have probably the best wide receiver season ever, and he did not win MVP. It was Aaron Rodgers who had a good, but not historic season. So I think with Mahomes, with Jalen Hurts, with Tua, there's enough good quarterbacks that I would just focus on the quarterback specifically. I think if Cooper Cup won the MVP last year, it's like, oh yeah, now let's have the conversation. But because he didn't do that, I just don't see a path to a non-quarterback

winning it in the near future unless they fundamentally change how they're going to be voting can you gamble on offensive player of the year because it does seem like they are starting to lean with that award to being like not the best quarterback uh and actually giving it to cooper cup uh i i think that jeff Jefferson has a really good case for that. Yes, I think that is really the wheelhouse, because if we look at those last few years, if we're just going back, we have Cooper Cup, then Derrick Henry, then Michael Thomas,

then Patrick Mahomes, that's a quarterback, Todd Gurley. So right there, four of the past five were non-quarterbacks. I think that is the market that I would focus on, especially because Tyreek Hill has had a couple slightly less impressive games recently. And the Vikings as well. They're 9-2. People like records.

Even if I look at the Vikings and I say this looks more like an 8-3 or a 7-4 team, it doesn't matter. People like the records. Justin Jefferson is clearly the most important part of this offense, and I think that is the offensive player of the year would be the market that I'd be looking at where I'd kind of be juggling him, Tyreek Hill. I think Josh Jacobs at this point kind of cemented himself

as a frontrunner when he had over 300 total yards this past week. So I think there's just fewer names to look at. Like Travis Kelsey, I think, actually belongs in that conversation. So there's fewer players to juggle there, and we know that it's probably not going to be a quarterback. Tis the season for you to buy the best Minnesota sports-themed apparel in the world for all of your friends and family. Go to SodaStick.com.

They have great holiday shopping deals there and use the promo code INSIDER. That is S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com. Code INSIDER for all of your holiday shopping. All right, before we wrap up, Josh, this has been a super fun conversation. I want you to give me, in your mind, who your Super Bowl pick would be at this point. And maybe it's obvious. Maybe it's just like Kansas City.

You're not crazy for doing that. But then your best bet as far as value goes for the Super Bowl. And I'll give you mine. I don't have the odds right in front of me. But Cincinnati returning to the Super Bowl I think is kind of an intriguing one for me. They went through some early bumps, but they're getting Jamar Chase back. They've survived not having Jamar Chase. I think Joe Burrow is playing just as good this year as he was last year.

And their defense, like we were just talking about how those can have ebbs and flows. They get a little healthier. They start to get hot toward the end of the season. I think their offensive line has gelled together better recently, and they might have a little more of a running game. I think that Cincinnati is kind of a low-key scary team that hasn't gotten as much attention because they started off slow, but I'd love to hear yours.

So I promise I'm not sucking up to the fan base here. I think the Vikings actually have quite tasty odds so i'm looking at fan duel sportsbook right now and as i think we'd all expect the chiefs are the favorites at plus 430 that is roughly a one in five chance for them in the super bowl the vikings are plus 1700 which is like a one in 17 118 type chance for a team that we already talked about how there is a path to them getting the one seat and getting a first round by the eagles are plus 650 that to me just doesn't quite make sense when you have that big of a disparity i mean the 49ers the cowboys also have much better super bowl odds not Not even just like slightly better, much better Super Bowl odds than the Vikings. And I think there's a, I mean, there's still a chance

like the 49ers could miss the playoffs. I don't think it's going to happen, but it's not going to happen with the Vikings. So I think right there, that's a pretty good odds. They're the same as the Bengals plus 1700 as well. And I think that's really good spot to be the Ravens plus 1700. If we're looking at the Ravens and the Vikings, one of these teams has a much better path to getting all the way. So I like

those two teams. And then for the super long shot, I'm also going to be a homer here. I like the chargers at plus 3,500. The reason I like the chargers is the chargers essentially have to make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, they can get several key members of the team back. So I think that that is actually an interesting bet to lay. Just throw $10, $20 on it, and you can go on a nice vacation if that hits. Because Rayshon Slater may be able to return for the playoffs. That'd be pretty exciting because you talked before,

you were like, on paper, this Chargers team at the start of the season looked pretty incredible. Well, you can get them plus 3,500 and all they have to do is make the playoffs. And suddenly that whole roster can get a whole lot healthier. I don't think I would go any further down than that. The teams get pretty gross, but I think at plus 3,500, the Chargers, I think at plus 2,200, the Buccaneers. I like that given that they were fairly recently in the playoffs.

And because it's an offense-driven league, this team's offense on paper looks like it could be pretty good. So if they sneak into the playoffs, which I think they do, O-line gets healthier. So those are kind of the teams that I would be most inclined to bet on. Teams that I think I don't love the odds, like the Cowboys at plus 900. Do not necessarily love that when I think I don't love the odds, like the Cowboys at plus 900, do not necessarily love that when I think there's paths

to them being a wildcard team, which is most likely going to happen. That is just not the type of playoff path that I like. At least with the 49ers, they're probably winning that division. But the Cowboys most likely getting in as a wildcard at plus 900. That to me is a little bit scary. So I think all you, all you Vikings fans out there could take solace that you can actually bet

on the Vikings at plus 1700. And I think that's a pretty decent bet to take. You also never know when Mike McCarthy is going to run the clock out on himself, which could always just happen at the end of a playoff game. Okay. Very, very last thing.

What is the chargers meltdown that hurts you the most? Oh, I think it's just the catering kick. It's, it's one of those where I'm a probability guy. I want to say I was like, it was either like 37 or 41. It was,

it was basically the type of kick that you're making, like at the NFL level, like 90 something percent of the time. And I think that's the one that hurt me the most because i understand there's pressure but i try to be the cold analytical guy that is my skill set and that is what i went to school for and i think just having that one where you look and you go hey we've got like a 90 something percent chance to seal this one and then it was just shanked so i think that's that will forever be the one that hurts the most is especially because like it's not even like uh a player that you consistently root for and get behind year after year is letting you down and then it's it's

literally just like wow this guy why does nate kating have to be such a big part of my Chargers history. So I'm going to give it to that one. There was a game against the Patriots in the playoffs. Maybe you know which one I'm talking about. It was early 2000s where Tom Brady threw an interception that would have sealed the game. And the guy, instead of just going down and just kneeling down, tried to run after the interception and then fumbled somebody can remind me of when when that happened but i think it may it was uh definitely early

2000s and then the patriots of course go to the super bowl so that i mean if you if vikings fans want to feel a little better there is an afc version of yourself and what you just described is kind of like the gary anderson John Madden and Pat Summerall talking about he hasn't missed a kick all year. And then he misses the kick that, you know, would have sealed the game against the Falcons. So there's a lot of, a lot of synergy there between those two franchises. Yeah. I think that Patriots one, if I'm not confusing history, because I was not very old at this time, but I do believe the game before that was where we intercepted Peyton Manning three times to beat the Colts. And then we lost to that Patriots team.

I think that's the year, if I'm not confusing it. But there have been so many disappointments. And that Philip Rivers era was just the best and the worst at the same time. So I know Vikings fans can thoroughly relate to that. Okay, it was 2007, and it was someone named Marlon McCree who fumbled the ball against the Patriots. So tough, tough. I mean, that was a peak San Diego Chargers team too, 2007.

Well, such is life. Best jerseys in the league though, so you do have that. We do. I've got my powder blue Justin Herbertys in the league though so you do have that we we do i've got my i've got my powder blue justin herbert jersey in the closet that comes out every sunday so i i i do i do like that we have the good jerseys i like the vikings jerseys as well i think more men should wear purple i think it looks really good so depending on which one the uh the color rush ones that they wore last week get debated quite a bit,

but road whites with the purple helmet, I think is their best look. But anyway, Josh is a super fun conversation. You can follow Josh on Twitter. I am doing this right now. Cause I didn't follow you before. Sorry about that.

At J Larky tweets on Twitter. And you are director of fantasy and gambling for 33rd team. I really appreciate your time and great to get together with you. We will definitely do it again. Sounds good. Thanks, Matt. I really appreciate it.

And yeah, we, we should talk to get, we should talk, uh, some football again at some point I am actually going to throw a little bit of money right now. We're going to sprinkle on some Justin Jefferson offensive player of the

year. So if we end up getting that payday, I might buy a Justin Jefferson Jersey Vikings fan. So stay excited about that possibility. Maybe the safest bet that you can have. So there you go. Anyway, well, we'll definitely get together again soon. Thanks for all your time, man.