Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Justin Jefferson talks JJ McCarthy and 2025 ups and downs

Episode Date: January 2, 2026

Manny Hill joins the show to discuss Justin Jefferson's comments about J.J. McCarthy and the ups and downs of the 2025 season. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, presented by Fandul. Matthew Collar here, along with Manny Hill. Happy New Year, Mr. Hill. We have a lot to discuss. Justin Jefferson talked about J.J. McCarthy and his future. We're going to break down Clayton Tune tape. That's going to be a lot of fun. No, I'm just joking, but he will start for the Packers on Sunday.

And we're going to look back because it is New Year's at the biggest successes and disappointments from the Minnesota Vikings in the year 2025. Of course, that second category might have a couple more than the first, but we'll get into it. And then we'll pick the games that matter this weekend since there's no point in picking Vikings and Packers. But, Manny, let's start off with what Justin Jefferson had to say about J.J.J. McArthur. We're going to play that here, and then we'll get your reaction. That's not my, that's not my job. Of course, I would love for him to be here. Of course, I would love for him to be the quarterback, especially off of this year. I feel like he needs to show everybody, improve to everybody that he is that top-tier quarterback. So I would love to have

him, and I love to work with him and show everybody he is that number one guy. But I feel like it starts in the off-season, starts that off-season working, building that connection, eliminating those habits that he had that we felt that hindered him throughout the season. So just working on those little bitty pits of his game, but he's still young. He still has, you know, learning to do and growing to do. So that's all part of the game. But it's up to me to, you know, require more from him and to work with him more. All right, Manny, so what do you think about Jefferson's approach to answering the J.J. McCarthy question?

Well, I think, you know, I think we know this about Justin Jefferson, that he is very honest and very forthcoming. And, you know, I think that's a big reason why he won the, the Corey Stringer Good Guy Award, right? Because you guys talk with him every week. He's one of the stars of the team, one of the leaders on the team. and you want somebody like him to be very forthcoming and very honest about the situation. And I think that was very insightful from Justin Jefferson to say what he said to be realistic about the situation that they're in. The reality is, is in order for this team to have success going forward, if they're going to go forward with J.J. McCarthy as their quarterback, he's got to get better and he's got to get significantly. better for a lot of reasons. I mean, just because simply the number one reason is if you're going to win a

Super Bowl, you've got to have good quarterback play, especially when the rest of the roster seems to have a lot of really good pieces that are good enough for you to win at a high level. But also, and we've talked about this, when you look around the rest of the division, the other three starting quarterbacks in this division are pretty good. And one of them is really young and he's getting a lot better. and he's the one that just won the division for this year. And so, you know, Jordan Love is another guy that's not going away.

Jared Goff, a little on the older side, but he's still got some really good years left in the tank for him as well. So it's now is the time for J.J. McCarthy. If he's going to be the guy, now is the time for him to really make a big leap going into next year. Otherwise, this situation is going to be really dicey for this franchise. And I think Justin Jefferson understands that. And, you know, he realizes that this is a 2026 is going to be a huge year for this franchise and J.J. McCarthy and everybody involved. It was perfect evidence of why we did vote for Justin Jefferson for the Corey Stringer Award.

I mean, number one is that he answers every single question, regardless of how tough the situation is. And he does not change from a 14 win season to a nine win, disappointing season from how. how he approaches, uh, his statements to the public. And when you think about why we do those press conferences, it's because people want to know what Justin Jefferson thinks about what's happening with the Minnesota Vikings. And in this press conference, he encapsulated it perfectly. I mean, one, number one, he said, it's not my job. I mean, it starts there to Justin Jefferson doesn't run the franchise, um, but he has to know and he does know that he's involved in these discussions. and his belief in J.J. McCarthy's ability to turn this around could be influential to some extent

for their decision making this offseason. What kind of level of competition does he believe that they're this close on a bunch of different plays, which I mean, I think we could go through them and find a bunch of different connections. Some were Jefferson drops, some were throws that were right there to be made, but McCarthy chose the right pass, just did not get it accurately. He also put it on himself to get together with J.J. McCarthy and work on their chemistry and work on their timing, which I think, and this is an error on my part, I think him not being there in training camp, threw that off for the entire season because those were the only possible reps before you actually get out there. And what I guess I didn't factor enough when I was

saying, hey, Nick Mullins crushed it with this guy. It should be as easy as just jump out there play is that Nick Mullins was a veteran quarterback who had played a lot of football before and understood how to do that. And the same thing went for Carson Wentz, who understood the concepts, understood when that ball had to come out. And even though he'd never played with Jefferson before, though those guys had thrown to good receivers in NFL offenses with timing, with throwing to spots, even though you're blind. Like, that's a hard thing to get used to. And I think that training camp would have made a big difference between those two, which falls again under the

2025 Vikings. Well, if only dot, dot, dot that had happened. But, you know, Jefferson was not gaslighting here. I mean, he was saying this has to be better. And later in the press conference, when he was asked about, you know, this season and not having a playoff

went through six years, he said, I hate it. I mean, he just, that was his first thing that came out of his mouth. It was just, I, I hate it. Like, he can't stand the fact that they have not had success. And he knows that he can't throw that football to himself so how he ends up feeling coming out of this season looking at it himself i mean i i agree with what he said about like players he was asked about this offseason what he's going to say to

o'connell and the exit meetings and he said like i have a game and so players are not going into a game thinking oh what am i going to say in my exit meeting what am i going to tell the front office whomever it is in the front office making this decision uh i mean if you're the owner i wouldn't be surprised if you check in with Justin Jefferson on how he feels about this and he has always been supportive of his quarterbacks. He supported Kirk. He supported Mullins. He supported anybody who has thrown the football to him. Of course, it was easy with Sam Darnold. But with this one, I like that he did not try to say, hey, you guys are just negative, you know, whatever. And this is where when people say stuff like that in the comments, I'm like, look at that Jefferson answer.

I mean, he's acknowledging fully that it has to get way better, but also saying that he thinks that it can. It's that second part that no one knows. Jefferson doesn't know. McCarthy doesn't know. KOC doesn't know. And we have so many examples of that. But I think it ties back in this answer.

Because if Jefferson had come out, Manny, and said, uh, you guys are so far off. Like this, this guy is, is got it. And you don't know what you're talking about. If he had said that, I would have been like, okay, knowing Justin, like, I'm listening. But when he's talking about, yeah, it's got to be way better, that makes me think and further confirms that he can't, this can't be the only plan is to have Jefferson and him get together on a beach and run a few out routes or whatever. This, it has to be more significant than that. I already thought that going into Thursday's press conference, but then coming out of it, I thought it even more. Yeah, and I think there's there's a track record with Justin Jefferson being here.

There's a half decade of tape highlights, all that stuff with previous quarterbacks being on the same pace with Justin Jefferson to know and realize, yeah, this can work. This is one of the absolute elite wide receivers in the National Football League. And we have seen him have success with other quarterbacks. You mentioned Kirk Cousins. You mentioned Nick Mullins. Sam Darnold, even Carson Wentz, when you look at, you know, Justin Jefferson's best performances, statistically this season, it's been with Carson Wentz at quarterback.

So the reality is, is we know that this can work. And so this now centers back to can J.J. McCarthy do what he needs to do to improve, throw with anticipation, throw with better timing, throw with better accuracy, get on the same page with Justin Jefferson. Yes, you know, Jefferson not being available during training camp, I think probably hindered some things. Obviously, McCarthy being in and out of the lineup on a week-to-week basis throughout the season impacted all of this. So there's a lot that has to go into this, but to your point, Jefferson acknowledged that this can work. The work just has to be put in, the time and everything has to be put in.

and then you can see what happens. The other part of that, though, is how much time do they really have to get this right? Because there are a lot of veteran players on this team that are in win-now mode, and with all the free agent signings that you've made in the last couple of years, you're trying to win and compete right now.

And the question is, do they have time to be more patient with McCarthy and wait two or three more years for him to figure, this out and I'm not sure that they do. I don't think that they do either and Jefferson is a major part of that because he has been very clear about it. And if they don't get 53 yards for this man in week 18, then it is as big of a failure as you could possibly have. Like this season is already an L in itself and not being able to get the ball to the best receiver in the world is shocking. to me still looking at some of these numbers, knowing what I've seen at U.S. Bank Stadium and

traveling on the road with all the different quarterbacks and all the different games that Justin Jefferson's had, I never would have thought in a million years that he'd be struggling to get to a thousand yards. If he had a healthy season, he got to a thousand yards in what was it, 10 games in 2003? I mean, this guy has never struggled in his life, which again says something about his character, the way that he has handled that entire thing. But, For a patient guy of the year in 2025, there's your award that's fantastic, but you don't have to be patient guy of the year in 2026. I think you only get to play that card one time with Justin Jefferson. Next year, if you're talking about the same thing and you are, what were

they at the trade deadline? Four and four, maybe it must have been, right? Four and four after they beat the lions. I think that's at the trade deadline now. They keep moving it back. But let's just say they were four and four. But if you look at his numbers and, and they're a mediocre team again, you are talking about somebody that might consider what's my future here, really. And if they don't win next year, you might be talking about a regime change or depending on how it goes. And then what does that mean for Justin Jefferson? What does that mean for who the future quarterback is? If you, you could go as far down this rabbit hole if you want, because we've seen it so many times if they change regimes after a failure. And then, you know, the next person comes in and

wants to draft quarterback. And they're asking Jefferson to, you know, bring that quarterback along. But now it's time to do his contract again. Like these things, they snowball quickly. And that is even more so you have to either be sure about McCarthy or you have to find somebody else who is capable of getting the football to Justin Jefferson, which does seem like a broad list. But what is the possibility in your mind, Manny, because we have all vowed that we're not using week 18 to evaluate J.J. McCarthy will still do it in some ways. I know us, you know, like, oh, well, you know, he did make some good throws that. I know us. You and I and I and everybody else and football and media in general, we can't help ourselves react to preseason type of football. But what would you put odds on it? Because, you know, I will continue to say that I think. think it is possible based on what we've seen of just and Jefferson alluded to it where it's like just get some of these little things right like just get the timing right just stop leg whipping on every throw like there these there are things that can be fixed here reducing

the number of sacks making better decisions with the football but what are the chances that it happens oh boy um I don't I honestly don't know and I know that's not the answer you want um i will kick you off the show if you don't give a percentage i'll i'll give it a i'll give it a 50 50 and even 50 50 split um because the the the infrastructure i think is there for mccarthy to have success and he is still very young he is still very inexperienced and the only way you can really get better is by playing more, getting more reps, more real-time reps, not week 18 matchups like this, like we're going to see on Sunday. It's not really real football that we're going to see. And we know the physical ability is there. It's just going to come down to fine-tuning

that stuff. But again, it's so complicated because they can't, this head coach, this GM, this organization, they can't afford to have another season like 2025. And if J.J. McCarthy doesn't make significant improvement, you're going to see another year like 2025. And that's just not good enough. Even if there's incremental improvements for next year, that's not going to be good enough. Not in this division with those other three quarterbacks that you're going to be matched up with twice a year. And that's, That's why I stopped short of being a little bit more optimistic that it's 65, 70%, because the leap that he's going to need to take is significant.

And it's rare to see quarterbacks perform with the struggles that he had this year to just make that major, major leap into, you know, sort of that upper echelon of quarterbacks to give you a real chance to compete in 2026 specifically. Because that's what we're talking about here is can they bounce back? in 2026 and be a real contender. They need them to have a big leap, and it's really rare that we see quarterbacks make that leap once in a while we see it,

but it's not happened a lot more often than it actually has happened. Well, and that's always the trouble of the Purple Insider podcast show is if I'm going to write a book about analytics and spend my entire career covering this team, focusing on the numbers and what they tell us about stuff, it's very hard for me to sit here and be like, I don't know, 90% chance it gets better because the numbers don't say that. And when you go through quarterbacks who are not drafted in the top three and what happened after they performed similarly through their first nine, 10 starts, what you get is a lot of guys who maybe got a second year, there's one guy who succeeded in particular, but also had 600 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns that need to be mentioned as. well and Josh Allen, one of the most unique prospects of all time. But even then, his second

year, see, that's only through his first whatever number of starts. His second year, he's in the playoffs. He's got 10 wins. He's clearly an ascending star in the NFL by his second year. And as much as we treat this like a rookie year, it is year three next year of since they drafted J.J. McCarthy. So the history of quarterbacks who perform like this is that teams don't stick around forever. And when Kevin O'Connell said organizations fail quarterbacks, more than quarterbacks fail organizations, I think that that can be right a lot. But also what I would add as an asterisk is, but we understand why the organization had to do it. And that's like Sam Darnold, go look at Sam Darnold with the New York Jets. It was time for them to move on. They couldn't wait

forever. They were losing every season. They were firing coaches. And he was not there yet. And so that's the conundrum that they're in is that J.J. McCarthy has to be able to go into next year and get the ball to Justin Jefferson to a rate that they're putting up not a thousand yards, but much closer to 2,000 yards than 1,000 yards for him for next year. I mean, if you if you don't believe that he can get Jefferson to 1,600, 1,700 yards next season, by the way, he's throwing the football, understanding the offense and everything else, not dumbing it down. I mean, if you don't believe that, then someone else has to play, or you at very least have to have a competition to where it's two dudes going at every single day, throwing passes to Justin Jefferson, and the best man wins, which I think is how it's going to play out. That would be my guess, whether it works or not is up to J.J. McCarthy,

but history's not kind. So just based on history, I would say maybe more closer to like 30%. But the thing, somebody tweeted this one. time that if you say something is 30% people treated as zero percent 30% when I was growing up used to be the chance of someone getting a base hit now that's like 1% and then there are home runs but they used to be back in my day when Tony Gwyn was knocking balls through the 5.5 hole so it's it's it's the odds of getting a base hit which they do and that's why the game exists but you know you fail more than you succeed when a guy performs like this

even when they are young. Let's talk about 2025 a little bit. A little retrospective here. And everyone grabbed your vomit bags to talk about 2025. I will say, Manny, that of all the seasons that I have covered, this one was in terms of the actual football games, by far the least entertaining and interesting. In terms of drama, in terms of, I compared this team,

off season to succession the other day. In terms of implications, oh, it's got a lot of ripples of what's going to happen into the future, as we were just discussing. But in terms of actual football games, how many good games were there this season where you could say two teams played football well, back and forth knocking heads, and it was exciting at the end? Three, two? Yeah, the, the, the Eagles game comes to mind right away.

Yeah. That was, that was kind of a, I don't want to say heavyweight fight, but that was, you saw, I mean, Jalen Hertz probably had his best game of the season that day. And, you know, Carson Wentz kind of did what he could to keep the Vikings in that game. They just couldn't defensively. They just couldn't get enough stops because A.J. Brown and Devante Smith are fantastic players. Couldn't score in the red zone. Yeah, couldn't score in the red zone. Yeah, that one comes to mind, I guess the first game of the year in Soldier Field kind of comes to mind because of the way that game played out. Yeah. The great fourth quarter that McCarthy was able to lead with them.

But yeah, man, you're really scratching and clawing for games that where you were like, wow, that was an incredible game. Right. I mean, even in 2020 and 2021, I would say this for 2018. too. Like we were talking today, a couple of us just in the locker room about the 2021 season and how imagine what would have happened if Zim had gone 12 and 4 that year because they won. We went through the four games that they could have easily won. Not like, oh, well, if this, this, this, this and this, but we're talking a missed field goal at the end. We're talking a fumble in overtime, like stuff like that. They could have won 12.

There's not even really a coulda, should have, oh, well, okay, stop the kickoff against the Chicago Bears, but there's an assumption that they win if that happens. The Bears had plenty of time. Like they could have completed a couple of passes. They played bad in that game. They didn't deserve to win. It wasn't a good football game all the way through. The Dallas game was exciting because of how J.J. McCarthy played.

And in the third quarter, it's 24 to 23. So I could say that that one was a good football game. But then you're talking about two teams out of the playoffs, a Dallas defense that's one of the worst in the NFL. I mean, every single one of these games that we could say was pretty good comes along with an asterisk, even the first Lions game, exciting, good, McCarthy played well, came down to the end. Okay, that's probably, like I said, maybe three.

There's three, maybe four games at most throughout this season, which I don't know of any other year that I would say that. But what I want to go through is just roster coaching wise successes and things that were disappointments. I want to say disappointment is not just failures because there's a lot of those, but things that we had different expectations for. I'm just going to begin with a success because, you know, it's the new year, or whatever, you know, I will say Jalen Redmond was the biggest success of the 2025 Minnesota Vikings NFL season. If we were doing the NFL films. The Vikings found a new star at defensive tackle in 2025. Number 61, Jalen Redmond.

I think he was fantastic. Sacks, run stops, consistent effort, one of the higher graded defensive tackles by PFF, just all over the field. And that's an undrafted guy who last year played like 200 snaps and we were like, that looked pretty good. And now that's someone to build on, legitimately build on going forward. Very impressive year for Jalen Red. Yeah, I agree. That's exactly why I was thinking of when you talked about successes, the way he has emerged into like a legit dude in this league that can be a major part of a really good defense.

This wasn't just a guy that's, you know, kind of the best, you know, the big fish in a small pond where the defense isn't really good, but he's making some plays here and there. He was a catalyst for the success, the overall success of this. very, very, very good defense, especially second half of the year. And he was right there at the forefront of all the, all the defensive success that they had. So, yeah, he's, he's, he's definitely a success story. I'm thinking of another one.

And, you know, maybe this kind of goes down as kind of a wasted year, but it was still really nice to see. But Will Reichert basically becoming probably the best kicker in the National Football League. Yes. This year, I think is really fantastic. It, it sucks that it was. in a year, like that was kind of disappointing overall because obviously we know the history of Vikings kickers and how they've sort of ripped the hearts out of people and the Vikings

fans in the postseason, how great would have been to have Will Riker be on a playoff team this year with him kicking the way that he's kicked. He's been fantastic and the fact that he's just young and he's going to be around for a really long time. Knock on wood, obviously he continues to keep this up, but he has all the makings to be one of the best kickers, really, really of all time with the way he's started out his career. Even last year, he was really good, had the injury and stuff that kept him out for a little bit. But when he's been fully healthy, he's been absolutely one of the elite kickers in the league. Yeah. I mean, look, when we talk about the draft picks, when they selected a kicker, I was like, I don't know, man, you know, whatever. Should you

just get like a backup center or something with the 60? You know, it's just that, again, it's not the greatest idea because oftentimes if you're bad, you'll still get a shot because they drafted you. But this is an incredibly valuable. If you could get the best kicker in the league, like we talk about, you know, what makes a difference in terms of EPA, expected points added.

The expected points added of Will Reichard this year over an average kicker is immense, especially when you consider where he's been kicking from. Their offense has been so pathetic that he's been kicking from beyond 50 all the time. 11 for 13 beyond 50 and there's we're still making the hit a wire jokes and I'll never know whether the ball hit a wire. I don't think the second time it did.

I thought people were being weird. But the first time, uh, it looks like it. And then the NFL said, no, we did a full investigation and now Michael's got yelled at or whatever one way or the other. This guy has had one of the best seasons. I think an NFL history of kicking and your wins above replacement of that for this season. Imagine if they had an average. coverage kicker. Imagine if it was like 2020 where Dan Bailey really struggled that year.

I think you could take two wins off the board if he ends up performing that way. Folks, as you know, Purple Insider is always growing and changing and I'm looking to take steps forward in 2026, just like your business. Now, I'm lucky to have a great crew, but as a business owner, I am well aware of the challenges of trying to find quality people to add to the roster. So if you're hiring for your company in 2026, let me give you a business owner. I'm give you a little advice. Check out ZipRecruiter with new goals in 2026. You may be looking to add to your squad. And thankfully, there's a place that you can go to help conquer these challenges and achieve your hiring goals. And right now, you can try ZipRecruiter free at ZipRecruiter.com

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Yeah, I mean, it's, it's just going to be so vital, I think, for, you know, them to continue to have him kicking at this level too. And I don't want to scare anybody. Don't want to alarm any Vikings fans, but I do remember a certain former kicker. Oh, don't do it. Don't even say, we're moving on. We're moving on. I know.

I'm going to stop right there. I'm going to stop right there because I don't want a Jenksville Weikert. He's been fantastic. I'm not even going to go there. You're right. I will say this about Will. right i've only been around him you know for two years here he's a young kid but i think he's as mentally strong as anybody i've been around like just just his focus and uh his work ethic and all

that i don't think it's going to go uh that other direction that you were trying to get to how about disappointments i'm going to throw one out there we know that jefferson's production is disappointing like we don't have to play captain obvious the quarterback play everyone else but i think a guy who has relatively escaped a lot of this conversation because so much has been on number 18 is Jordan Addison. He was suspended for the first three games, which I know is a 2024 penalty, but nonetheless, it still happened. He was suspended for something in England for a quarter.

He had a great touchdown run the other night against the Lions. He's had a handful of really good catches. He's had more drops than I would ever expect from him. And the overall production from Jordan Addison is, at the end of the day, way, way less. And we talk so much about Jefferson and what it means for him. Because, look, I think we all know this. Other players can be replaced.

Franchise receiver, this goes for another disappointment guy, Darrison, like franchise left tackle. You have to do whatever. But Jordan Addison didn't exactly make a case for, hey, you should come to me with a blank check this offseason. And I think the Vikings, the way they should approach this, is very much a, let's wait and see where things go for Jordan Addison. I mean, his talent is immense, but another offseason that needs to be clean for Jordan

Addison because of the way he started his career. And I think next year, the spotlight is on him as well. And yes, a lot of it is the quarterback, but it wasn't all the quarterback this year for Jordan Addison. Yeah, I think the biggest thing for him is consistency and focus. You know, can he just focus? can he you mention can he have an offseason where we're not hearing about him being in the news i mean that's that's a big part of this you know and that goes into just the overall focus on being a

professional athlete and understanding what's at what's at stake it's like dude you're still on your rookie contract man if you're trying to get paid like a lot of these other really good wide receivers in the league you got to keep yourself out of trouble man you know keep yourself out of the headlines in the off season with all the off the field stuff, you know, because obviously him being suspended for the first few games of the season this year because of off the field decisions, that didn't help matters either for, you know, a young quarterback that is trying to grow and develop. You know, you've got to be out there too. So, yeah, I mean, I think 2026 is going to be a big year for him as well to just have a clean offseason off the field stuff.

stuff, get rid of that stuff, come back, you know, continue to work on your craft and get better as a football player overall, get rid of some of those drops that we saw a lot of this, a lot of times this season that I think goes into the focus element that I was talking about. Yeah, I think it's going to be a big year for him because he wants to get paid and I imagine the franchise still has a lot of high hopes for what he can be, what he can become, but he's got to he's got to actually show it. He's got to take this seriously and understand the magnitude of how he plays next year is going to impact his future. So I think that, I mean, it has come up on the show and it has come up with fans.

But when I put it this way with this number, I think you're going to be even a little bit more surprised. So in his first two seasons, Jordan Addison's drop percentage was 4.1% and 5.7. Those are pretty darn good numbers for an NFL top two wide receivers. about 5% right this year 14.6% of hit right right you would not have thought that right but when guys aren't getting very many targets overall because they're either not throwing because they're afraid of the quarterback or they are you know trying to force the ball to Jefferson or whatever else 71 targets and seven drops of 41 catches I mean so that that is a shocking number for Jordan Addison when you compare it to his past.

And when you look at the quarterback rating when he was targeted is only 76.1. His contested catch rate was down four interceptions into his cover or into his, you know, target. I mean, these numbers are, again, they're connected to a quarterback. And when the quarterback, you know, throws it 5,000 miles an hour, sometimes you're going to have more drops. But I don't think that that was always the case with Jordan Addison this year. I think a lot of the drops, as you said, were focused drops. Where would you like to take the disappointments? Yeah, you kind of mentioned him a little bit.

I'm going to go Christian Derisaw. Not, I don't really think to any fault of his own. I think it's just you're coming off a major injury like that. And you're a big guy coming off of an injury like that. Sometimes you might just need to, you know, get a full, that first season after a significant knee injury like that to really get back to being yourself. But the reality this year, it was a tough year for him. You know, you would still, obviously, they were better as an offense when he was out there than when he was not. But you

could just kind of tell it wasn't the same Christian Darisaw they were so used to seeing. And him kind of having to come out of games because, you know, maybe the knee was bothering him a little bit. it was tough. And that was, that was disappointing to see that we couldn't get that full 17 game elite level left tackle play from when he is healthy, one of the absolute best in the game. The fact that they weren't able to get that this year, I think was a huge hindrance to what they were able to do on offense. And it was just disappointing, I think, for him because he is, he's one of the best in the league. And he's, you know, they need him to be out there on a weekly basis. Let me go with a quick success story, Eric Wilson, who turned out to play like a star for the Minnesota Vikings in the second half of the season.

I've got to say, I covered Wilson his first time here, thought he was a really nice player. I brought him up as a good signing that I liked, but no way would I have seen the impact that Eric Wilson had. He turned into a legitimate star. Now they have a decision to make with him in the offseason, but I don't know how you can't bring him back. after the way he played and basically kind of switched positions to an outside linebacker spot and then moved inside and was a tremendous rusher for them, huge success story. But in terms of even more magnitude, the potential, put it, potential final days of Harrison Smith as a Minnesota Viking have been a massive success.

And having covered so much of his career from 2016 to now, I know he was here before, but that's when he really had his stride as a superstar in the end. NFL was right when I was getting to covering the Vikings and I remember coming in and being like, do you guys know how good this guy is? And they did. Everyone already knew. But I mean, it was really mind-blowing to see a safety do as many things play in the box, drop back deep, intercept passes, get sacks, knock down passes, play mind games with Aaron Rogers, an absolute joy to watch this man play football. But the last thing in your life that you ever want, want to see from a guy who's been this great is a tough end and you know the for whatever reason

poor willie mays always gets brought up with this you know the willie mays mets or whatever but there's a hundred guys hundred thousand athletes who the the end was not exactly john elway or Peyton manning right and okay i would have preferred it for harrison if he was raising the lombardy i think we all agree that players of that magnitude deserve a championship that was not to be but his performance being in the second half of the season once he got healthy, playing like a superstar for this stretch. I mean, it's just, it's just been really fun to see, Manny. It has. And I know Justin Jefferson talked about this today, too, because they asked him, you guys had asked him about Harrison Smith. And, you know, he was kind of hinted at like, hey, if he wants to come back for

another year, I mean, he still obviously has a lot left in the tank. And, and, you know, to your point the way he's played the last you know six seven games i mean he's it does kind of look like hey you know harry maybe you still got a little bit maybe he got 17 more games in you uh in 2026 who knows i mean it's um i i just being a fan of this team and and having followed them for so long and i remember harrison smith when he first got in the league in 2012 and um that was you know that was Adrian Peterson's big 2100 yard season, the MVP year and everything. And I think you could just see then that like, oh, yeah, this guy, this guy's going to be an absolute stud. Just the way he carried himself on the field, the leadership qualities that he had, coming from a really, you know, sort of rich tradition, a rich program with tradition in Notre Dame and having a lot of success there.

and just all the leadership and tangible things that he showed over the last, you know, 14 years now, I think has just been incredible. And to see him, to your point, to see him play at this level at this age where, you know, this might possibly be the end, I think is great because you never want to see, you know, your quote-unquote heroes of the, you know, your favorite athletes. You never want to see them go out negatively. I think about, you know, one of my favorite athletes of all time, Muhammad Ali, I still feel as the greatest heavyweight of all time.

But those last few fights were just, they were tough watches. And so you never want to see your favorites go out, you know, on a down way. But to see Harrison Smith go out playing at this level has been really fantastic. And obviously, we don't know if this is actually it. You know, we're kind of speculating that it might be. But if it is good on him for going out,

going out with a bang and going out on the right foot. How about one more success story from you and then we'll do one more disappointment and then we'll pick these games? I will go, I'll go, not necessarily specific player. I will go with the defense as a whole and the way the defense has finished this year, I think was a really strong success story. And, you know, maybe, maybe if I'm talking about any individual, I'll say Brian Flores with the way this defense has really performed the second half of the year. because there was there was a time and me and you and merv talked about it i think it was after the chargers game where it was really bad and we were like what is happening to this defense and how is this team going to survive and continue to compete um if this is what we're going to see from the defense the reality was is the defense needed to get back to being fully healthy and once they were once blake hashman came back once andrew van ginko came back and they were at full strength and and um you know Harrison Smith got fully healthy and started playing a lot better. We saw this unit be as good as we anticipated them to be.

And so that, to see them play at this level and to go on a four-game winning streak, despite the quarterback play being very, very suspect, I think is really commendable. So good on them. And I think it's a really strong success story. Here's a really tough one for success or failure. Two defensive tackles that they spend a lot of money on. in the offseason, they totaled 64 through, you know, they'll probably get a few more on Clayton,

264 quarterback pressures, okay? If I go back to last year and look at how many quarterback pressures, the interior defensive line had, let's see, it would have been Jerry Tillerie and Harrison Phillips, are your main two starters, right? Jerry Tillery had 17 pressures and Harrison Phillips had 15, which adds up to 32. So they got half of the pressures from their combination.

And I also think that once they started putting three defensive tackles on the field on early downs, then Jonathan Allen and Jvon Hargrave started to cook. They were getting one-on-one matchups, but early in the season, they're losing a lot. The Pittsburgh game comes to mind. You're down the whole game. The other team puts in a sixth offensive lineman, and you're just getting run over and steamrolled. And I think that ultimately figuring that out was huge. for them, but that type of production, had the quarterback played well, had they gotten more

opportunities to rush the passer, I think we would have been saying this was a success story, even if those guys are flawed, it was a successful pair of moves, even if they were overpaid. If they were in the playoffs, we wouldn't have cared if they had gotten good enough quarterback play. So it's amazing how what the quarterback does can shape the narrative for every player, because we would have said, well, Hargrave got 30 something pressures. Like, that's exactly what you signed him for. Who cares of it? it was a few extra million. Now, here's another hard question about the defense.

Dallas Turner, do you put him under your success or disappointment category? Bit of a mixed bag, maybe, because I think early in the season when Van Ginkle was out and they had him trying to fill that position, it just wasn't really working. He wasn't really doing a lot. But then when Grenard went out on the other side and they put Dallas Turner, gave him a bigger role in that role he really excelled and he showed a lot of the flashes that we were kind of hoping to see from him in these first two seasons and so i would say i would call it more so a success because i think it allowed us to kind of figure out okay what kind of player dallas turner

actually is and what the right role for him actually is the van ginkle role probably not a fit for him maybe he can get to that level down the line but right now that's not the kind of player that he is but you put him over on the other side and just have him just run after the quarterback just beeline it to the QB on every down every time he's out there that's where he can really have a lot of success and really excel so I think for them to to sort of figure that out over the course of the season and discover that I think is a success story but because at the start of the year it was kind of looking like oh Dallas Turner I don't know look at what they moved up to get him and all that stuff

but I think for them to figure out the right role for him, I think is a bit of his success. So in terms of pass rush grade, he's 34th out of 62 total. Now, I would be curious, and maybe I should take the time to just figure this out anyway, what that looks like over the last eight weeks of the season, which I know is not a fair way to do anything, like, oh, let me just, you know, pick out the last eight weeks, but that was when he was filling out that role, as opposed to playing more of the Van Ginkle. And yeah, just what I thought.

15th over the last from week eight through week 17. He's top 15 pass rusher. And to me, that's a success. 40 pressures is kind of the marker for like, hey, you're making an impact from your team. And he had 40 pressures so far. I imagine he will get a couple more against Clayton Tune. And if he finishes with 43, 44, 45 pressures,

like that is a pretty good season for a guy who needed to take a big step. And I think they also found out something about him, which would be, you know, pretty darn valuable there. So I agree the defense as a whole ultimately. Just look at their numbers, I think points against their seventh. And if you told me at the beginning of the season, Brian Flores will have some ups and downs because I think he always will based on personnel injuries, based on, you know, when you're that aggressive, you might get roasted by Justin Herbert. scrambling around because he's a freak or Jalen Hertz who's great at throwing deep throwing deep on you but if you told me before the season how many wins do you think the Vikings get if Brian Flores defense ranks seventh I'd be like 12 I mean 10 11 like it's not

I wouldn't be saying oh man they'd be eliminated from the playoffs five weeks before the end of the season I mean the number one disappointment is the easiest one now you think I'm going to say quarterback but I'm going to also tack on quarterback and head coach together. The biggest disappointment is that I thought, you thought, I bet if you did a poll of all analysts, 98% would have come back buying that Kevin O'Connell and J.J. McCarthy were going to be peas in a pod,

and they were going to go into this season and thrive together through ups and downs and so forth, and that they were going to find a way to, fit the offense to him or that he was going to be enough far enough along in the offense based on what they saw in camp to be ready to hit the ground running. And a lot of stuff is not O'Connell's fault either. You know, when you talk, well, JJ had those injuries in the offensive line. Well, who was the play caller dealing with Justin School early in the season at left tackle? Or, you know, who's the play caller trying to figure out? Well, how do you figure out

what JJ can and can't do if he doesn't play? Which then he comes back, wins a game, good. And then, oh, no one said KOC needed to adjust the offense. It was only after he then played bad after that. So the order of operations matters too. Nonetheless, we can pick apart each one of those little things. The expectation for both of them was much, much higher than the performance they got out of this. And if you're supposed to be the offensive guy, the quarterback guy, and all those things, you can't get to week 17 and rank 25th in points. That's just not anywhere near where you were supposed to be. And that narrative is now instead of, it's amazing how much a year changes, Manny.

Instead of QB Whisperer coach of the year, it's a guy who now has to prove it, whether it's with JJ or somebody else. Yeah. I mean, and I think the expectations, I think, were the biggest deciding factor in this because of everything that they did in the offseason in 2025. Yep. I mean, the first round draft. pick using that on a guard to help their young quarterback.

The pre-agent signings with the center and the right guard, and obviously with Ryan Kelly, you know, the injuries and everything, that was kind of out of their control. But, you know, the money that you spent to get Will Fries in here, you know,

you're getting Daryasaw back, you're getting O'Neill back, the moves you made on the defensive side to help bolster the defense. So the defense is better to take some pressure off of the young quarterback and make things easier. for him everything that they did was centered around trying to you know fit j j mccarthy into this puzzle and providing him with the infrastructure for him to have success and the fact that they didn't really have a lot of success that falls on it falls on j j mccarthy and to your point it falls on

kevin o'connell too because they're he's the one he's the head coach he's the one that made the decision ultimately to let Sam Donald walk in free agency and go to Seattle and decide to go with J.J. McCarthy when the opportunity to keep Sam was there, the opportunity to bring Aaron Rogers was there. He said no to that. And he put the eggs into the basket of J.J. McCarthy and it didn't go as planned. So yeah, this is, it's, it ties into both of them. And I think going into 2026, both of them honestly need to be, you know, need to be better. I mean, it's just, it's really as simple as that. Okay. So I don't think you can go anywhere else with the disappointments after that part of it. So let us pick these games. Now, am I wrong,

Manny? There's three games that really, really matter. Well, actually four because Atlanta, their game matters against the New Orleans Saints, because if they win, then the Panthers can be in. And then that game won't mean anything. So I guess that depends, too. Is there another one? Because I've got Panthers, Bucks, Seahawks, 49ers, Saints, Falcons, and then Baltimore and Pittsburgh as the games that matter. I think that that's right. Maybe, maybe New England-ish.

Isn't it New England and like help for Buffalo, right? Yeah. And then there's, do the, do the Texans still have a shot to win the South? If they tie with Jack, because Jacksonville's at. 12 and 4, Houston's 11 and 5. The Texans have the Colts. Okay, let's pick that one anyway. When the Vikings aren't in the playoffs,

my playoff machine memorization is a little bit lower. But let's just pick that one anyway. So let's start with Carolina at Tampa Bay on Fandul. The Panthers are three-point underdogs to Tampa Bay. Who do you think wins that game? I like Carolina. I think that there are,

you know, they've had some up and down moments this year, but I kind of like what they've got going on there. And I think this is a real opportunity for them to get, you know, I have so many young players, the chance for them to get into the playoffs and kind of gain that experience. So I'll take Carolina in this one to sweep the bucks and win the south. The bucks have just completely come apart at the seams. And I mean, injuries are a big part of it.

It doesn't seem like Baker's been healthy. Remember that game against the Rams where he got banged up and Teddy had to come. and he has been horrible since then. And I mean, it's not a hard thing to figure out that he has been a totally different quarterback since he got injured and what they probably should have done. But when you don't, you know, Teddy's not a guy that you could play for like five games. If they had a backup that was maybe Joe Flacco is always going to be the, you know, the one to go to. But if they had one that could play four or five games, they probably should have sat him down

and let him get healthy. But Carolina makes sense there. Bryce Young needs to bounce back from last. week because that was a horror show, but I'll, I'll take Carolina plus three. The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks are one and a half point favorites on the road against San Francisco. I mean, this is just, this is the one. This is the game.

They cannot wait for this. What time does this kick off? Is it the seven o'clock kickoff, I believe? Is that the seven? Oh, okay, good, good, good. Because I, you know, I want to make sure I see it. So where are you going to this one? well i've been going kind of back and forth on this one i'm going to take san francisco at home

um i think that performance against the bears to kind of hold off the bears in that game i think showed signs of you know leadership coaching and just resiliency that's a team that's dealt with some injuries too and for them to find find themselves in this position with Brock Purdy missing a lot of games. George Kittle missing a lot of games. They've been able to sort of fight through this and put themselves in a position to still win that division. So I think with the resiliency that they have,

I'm going to take them to win this game and win the NFC West. Well, I might as well take Seattle here. And the argument would be this. Now, Brock Purdy in the second half of the season has vastly outplayed Sam Darnold. I mean, Sam Darnold's numbers have dipped in the second half of the year, but he had the big moment against the Rams and then last week he didn't have a good game

against Carolina but their defense was so dominant, it didn't really matter. And that was also the case against the Minnesota Vikings where Darnel played poorly in that game and yet the defense was so good and Max Brosmer was starting that, you know, whatever. But I'll take them anyway because I think that some part

of the success of San Francisco has been their schedule, the defenses they've played, the Bears defense is pretty much not good at all. And they knew exactly what the bears were doing and they roasted them because there's limitations there. Seattle is as good as it gets defensively. I think this is why they're a Super Bowl favorite is.

I mean, I think we all know Darnold is good, but you're not a Super Bowl favorite if you don't have one of the, if not the most talented defense. So might as well. Now, they played earlier this year. I think that was a slug fest. I mean, this one could be low scoring, I think. And might come down to one drive. So love that for us to.

watch this football game, but I'll take Seattle, one and a half, and I would take the under. The over under on Fandu is 47.5. I would go under. Do you think Kirk will get a win in week 17, three and a half point favorite against New Orleans and make his case to be the Vikings quarterback next year? And also, this one has implications because it could get Carolina into the playoffs just with a Falcons win, which is insane that they would host a home freaking playoff game if Kirk wins wow yeah the the Falcons are just a team that's just been really hard to figure out because there's been times where they've looked pretty good um and there's been other times where you're like what in the hell was that but then you know last week they play a really good

game against the Rams and they you know they find a way to win that game they pick off Matthew Stafford a couple of times um so I I think with that said, I kind of like what New Orleans has cooking, the way that they've, they played a lot better the second half of the season. And Tyler Shuck looks like at least a functioning quarterback that maybe he can be the guy going forward. We'll see with that. But I think they played a lot better.

And they've kind of disrupted things in the rest of the NFC, South, getting a win over Carolina a few weeks ago and making things challenging there. So I'm going to take. New Orleans because they just seem to be playing playing a little bit better, a little bit more consistently than Atlanta has been. I'm going to go with Kirk in this game. He likes playing against New Orleans historically and has had some of his better games against them.

And I also think he's played really good football recently. Bejohn Robinson is crushing it. And they've, they've saved Rahe Morris possibly there in Atlanta with their performance at the end of the year. So I'm going to go Atlanta minus three. The other games are ones that if you don't win, so the Texans versus Riley Leonard or the Jaguars versus the Titans, I mean, then woof. So I think we'd both pick the same sides there, which leaves us with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. Loser has Brian Flores as your head coach next year.

Hold on. Let me find this game what the line is. I'm very curious. It is a three and a half point favorite Baltimore Ravens. Still not totally clear about Lamar Jackson, but I'm guessing that he's going to play in this game. Over under is just 41.5. So the black and blue here,

where are you going? Who do you think wins? You got a banged up Lamar Jackson potentially playing, and then you've got the walking corpse of Aaron Rogers still playing in this game. I'm gonna oh yeah this is a tough one to pick I'll go I'll go Pittsburgh the game being in Pittsburgh yeah maybe they'll just find a way Baltimore with with Lamar being banged up might just have to lean into Derek Henry and Derek Henry might have to carry this ball like 40 times and run for like 250 yards for them to win but that's why I'm picking Baltimore okay okay

yeah I'm gonna take Pittsburgh just being at with them being at home they'll find a way but I don't feel super confident about that pick. I just feel like Pittsburgh's defense is very flawed. And last week was really disturbing in terms of how Aaron Rogers played. That looked like a guy hitting the wall. So we'll see. But I'm going to go with Baltimore here. And then if you're a team in the playoffs,

I don't like, I don't think you're thrilled if Baltimore gets in. Like you want Pittsburgh. If you're a team in the playoffs, you'd rather play what's left of Aaron Rogers and a very flawed football team, the Derek Henry, who's picking up steam and potentially Lamar Jackson if he could get healthier. Should be a very interesting week, just not for us.

But nonetheless, next Monday night, we'll have our roundtable with you, Manny, and Brian Murphy, and we'll make our off-season predictions for the Minnesota Vikings then. So thank you for your time, sir. Happy New Year, and we'll see you very soon, my friend. All right, happy New Year. Football. Thank you.