Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Let's look at some numbers and decide where the Vikings sit in the NFC

Episode Date: October 13, 2022

Matthew Coller is joined by analytics wizard Tej Seth, who hosts the Take The Pointz podcast and often tweets out interesting stats that tell us about what's winning in the NFL. What's the key stat that says the Vikings are already a strong contender? Where could they improve? How do they match up against the best teams in the NFC by the numbers? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider presented by Liquid Death. Go to liquiddeath.com slash insider and learn about the Tallboy can, which actually has water. Find out where you can get it near you at liquiddeath.com slash insider. hello welcome to another episode of purple insider matthew collar here along with tage seth who you may know is a former pff intern, but also now does the Take the Points podcast with AZ, which I completely respect.

And Tej, you guys just joined the Blue Wire Network, which also houses Purple Insider. So I thought it was a great time for us to get together and talk some ball. What is up, Tej? Yeah, thanks so much for having me on today. I'm really excited to talk with you and, you know, super pumped to be part of the Blue Wire Network as well. Now, Tej, you are, I think I'm just going to give you this compliment and you can just take it, a brilliant analytics mind that you are sort of up and coming in the industry

here and made a lot of noise when it came to the things that you were putting out throughout last year. And of course, your celebration of Matthew Stafford as a longtime Lions follower. But what's been really interesting about the stuff that you've put out over the last couple of years is there's a lot of charts that I think we look at and then we try to interpret and that start conversations, whether it's about players or it's about teams and every one of them is kind of its own discussion. So I wanted to talk with you really about how we know when an NFL team is good, because at this moment, that's the big conversation with the Vikings and they're going to play a third string quarterback

on Sunday. Then they're going to have a bi-week. They're going to play Arizona that doesn't know how to offense. And then Washington after that, that doesn't know how to do anything. But the discussion really is can the Vikings run through these teams and make themselves into a legitimate contender? So let me ask the broad question first, where would you begin in looking at small sample size statistics about the Vikings or just any individual team to try to figure out, are they really legit? And where is this going to go? Yeah. You know, if I could start with like a metric or a stat and, you know, kind of keep it simple enough where it's like interpretable for most people, you have to start with point differential

and, you know, you can, that can be influenced by the opponents you play, especially earlier in the season. But what we see from really good teams that end up doing well later on in the season and in the playoffs is these teams don't win games by one scores when they're supposed to win by more than one score, right? So like you've seen the Bills this entire season, and all of their wins basically dominate the opponent that they're playing against. And that's why, you know, they have the highest point differential in the league right now. And that's why they're, you know, the pretty heavy Super Bowl favorites. So when it comes to, you know, the Vikings specifically right now,

when they, you know, were playing the Saints in London, or they were playing against the Bears last week and kind of let them back in the game, the Vikings have shown they're a good team. Like their record is right there and their point differential is 10th best in the league right now. So it's, you know, kind of on the borderline of top 10, maybe their record is a little bit better than, um, or sorry, their point differential is a little bit worse than the record is, but they are close to being one of the better teams in the NFL. Well, and this is something that gets brought up on the show from time to time is I really like the expected win loss to give us an idea of where a team could go in their direction. And there's also Kevin Cole who puts out expected scores based

on how you played. And this is where I think it does get a little confusing because there's lots of different metrics, but when it comes to the quality of the opponent that the Vikings have beaten so far, the Detroit Lions, I'm sorry to say, Tej, that the roar has not been restored. I'm sorry, my friend, that it has not gone super well. But New Orleans was playing a backup quarterback, backup running back, backup wide receiver,

and they come very close to coming back in that game and beating the Vikings. And then Chicago might be the least talented or second least talented team in the entire league. And again, you're bringing it down to the final score. I think this is where Vikings fans get very anxious is that, you know, you talk about not adjusting it for opponent, but I feel like in this case, you kind of have to adjust how you feel about the team as a whole for the opponent because three of their four wins have been sort of in like scary fashion for the fans where they shouldn't have had to have been gripping the side of their chairs, but they were.

Yes, no, I agree with that. But the way that they won these games, I think is important because in the NFL right now with how much of a passing dominated league it is, I think you want to win because of your passing offense. And with Justin Jefferson being, I'll say the best receiver in the NFL right now, the Vikings have ranked 12th in expected points added per drop back this season. And so last year we saw that out of the top 14 teams in drop back expected points added, 12 of them made the playoffs. So that is like the main metric for making the playoffs post-season success. And it's important that the Vikings are winning games that way, instead of having a very strong defensive performances, which we see less stability in or very strong rushing performances,

which we also see is more unstable week to week. Oh yeah, no, for sure. And that we've seen that with the Vikings this year, that they have a terrific running back group and an offensive line that's been run blocking really well. And yet still from week to week, it's been, you don't really know if you're going to get a good running performance or not, but let's talk about the passing stuff because I think that there's a lot of meat that's been left on the bone. Just even when you watch the tape of open receivers that Kirk Cousins didn't find, or even when he threw the interception last week, he kind of acknowledged that that was something that he should have read a little bit differently or in previous years would have read differently.

And I think there was that moment of hesitation as they go along. It feels like there's an opportunity to improve, especially because KJ Osborne has not emerged yet. Adam Thielen has not had one of those big Adam Thielen games, which I think he's still capable of. And Irv Smith was coming off of an injury and he started to show some signs. And if they continue to block the way they have, it seems like that number should go up and you bring up like how that correlates to success. And I think that if I'm not wrong, every single Superbowl winner since the Denver Broncos in 2015 has been in the top five of passing EPA. It seems like everything else is kind of noise and can change on a week to week basis, but that's the one thing that can drive you toward

being a good team. Yeah, no, that's, that's exactly right. And that's why I think it was so important for the Vikings, you know, this year to kind of like put their emphasis in their passing game because, you know, it struggled at times last year and, you know, we've seen just little areas where they've, you know, been able to clean up like end of the half situations have been a lot better this year with Kevin O'Connell there. And then, like you said, there is a lot more room for improvement as well. And, you know, like the really interesting thing is Kirk has played better in previous years than he's had this year. So if they're able to have, you know, the top 12 passing offense with Kirk not playing to, you know, his career average in Minnesota so far, if he's able to get back to the level that he usually plays

at, this could be, you know, top 10, top eight passing offense going forward. And that could be a big boost for them as they go further in the season. How do you look at it when it comes to the quality of opponent that they're going to play? Because I was looking at the next three games that they have and they're facing three of the bottom eight, I think, EPA against passing EPA against. And this, to me, seems like it's correlated for a long time with Kirk. As far as if he's playing a poor passing defense, he tends to shred them. And if he's playing a great passing defense, they tend to lose. That's always been my explanation for why there's a Kirk roller coaster.

But I think that that's another part of fans nervousness about the hot start is that he's always had these great peaks, but also the valleys as well, sort of come along with that. And I wonder what you make of that analytically, because at the end of the year, the PF grades are always good. PFF grades are always good. The quarterback rating is always good. The traditional statistics, but then you'll look at something like QBR and you kind of see these big spikes and big downturns. I mean, is that just the nature of the beast with Kirk cousins, or is there something that can be done

that you can find on paper to prevent those huge peaks and valleys? Yeah. So I think, you know, volatility, if you don't have an elite quarterback, like if you don't have your Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, you don't want those types of quarterbacks to be volatile because you just want it like they should just be consistently pretty good. But when you have a, you know, tier two, tier three quarterback like a Kirk Cousins, you want volatility there because when you get into the playoffs, they need to be able to string three or four high end games together. And you don't want them to be just consistently average, like we've seen from other quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, whose teams usually don't perform well in the playoffs, even though they have good regular seasons. You want them to have those high peaks that can carry you to the Super Bowl. And like you mentioned at the beginning of the show, like we saw this with Matthew Stafford last year. His values are really, really low and his peaks are really, really high. And he hit all of those peaks on the Super Bowl run for the Rams.

So it worked out for them there. Yeah, and the guy from San Francisco dropped the ball. But you can fly that flag forever. You don't have to apologize for that. That's what I always say about like even the four-in-one start. Like, yeah, you could have been one-in- four, but you don't have to give the wins back, which means when you're playing these teams that are very beatable you can improve on things. Now the defensive side of it is a very tough part because I think when you look at it right now,

they've actually played worse than the number of points that they've given up by a lot of metrics. And even last week, you're talking about the most flustered quarterback in the NFL, Justin Fields, or most easily flustered. And then he looks like Lamar Jackson for an entire half. And I think that people here don't really know what to make of it because they haven't gotten completely comfortable with what Ed Donatel is doing defensively. He's not blitzing a whole lot, which I'd love your thoughts on that. They're kind of playing everybody back, I think, to really protect the secondary, but also not getting a whole heck of a lot of pass rush either. So there's concerning signs in the process, but also a lot of defense is determined in the same

way we were talking about with schedule and who you're playing. And I mean, Skylar Thompson is going to start for the Miami Dolphins. So how do we figure out as we go along here, can this defense actually beat some of the better teams when they eventually face them? Yeah. When we start with the blitzing side of things, uh, yeah, when you don't blitz that often your range of outcomes as a defense is pretty narrow and it kind of just depends on, you know, how good your corners are from that going forward. But when you're blitzing and you're sending, you know, five or six man rushes towards the quarterback, that really widens the range of outcomes, right?

Like it could be anything from where you give up, you know, a pretty big like 40 yard touchdown, but you also have the other end of things where you're getting a sack, which, you know, could be a drive killer for the offense so when you don't have you know as much talent on defense as you know some of the better offenses that you're playing to be able to just match up and play like what you want to play i do think you need to blitz more to uh kind of you know feel that out and like the data the data shows this as well, right? Like when, when teams blitz and play man coverage, there is a wider range of outcomes that'll happen first when they don't blitz and play zone. I guess I wonder if they want that. Like,

I mean, when you play the, you know, everybody calls it the umbrella or whatever, but you know, you're playing the two deep safeties and daring team to go down the field, but teams have kind of done that against them. I mean, they have been able to move the ball, but outside of the Philly game, there haven't been a ton of explosive plays against the Vikings defense. One was called back at a block in the back last week. That would have been like a 50 yard touchdown run for Justin field. So luck plays into defense as well. But I guess I've been trying to decide, like, should I criticize Ed Donatel for doing this or not? And it's almost like, do you ever play the mode on Madden where you just do offense only? It's like you kind of just have to react to whatever happens in the defense.

I always do that because the games are too long and who wants to play defense? But, you know, I think it's a little bit like if they can just sort of hold on for dear life, they can set a bar that they have to reach as an offense. So if you are, you're not going to shut anybody out because you get four interceptions or four strip sacks, but you are going to maybe give up like 24 points. Can you beat 24 points on a week to week basis? So I kind of get it from that perspective that they're saying, we think we can. Yeah, I know. Yeah.

When I mean, when they're playing teams like the Saints with backup quarterback, missing receivers and the Bears, who, like you mentioned, doesn't have much talent, that's you know, that's perfectly fine. I'm just very curious to see, you know, how he adjusts that game plan when he's going up against, you know, some of the top tier offenses in the NFL. But, you know, when you look at the Vikings schedule, like there are, you know, many top tier offenses that they're going to be going up against, at least in, you know, the next couple of weeks here. So, you know, it's totally fine to keep kind of playing the umbrella, you know, too high shell defense, as long as you're communicating

well. And, you know, they have been, and I think like a lot of it comes down to like how good their four down defensive linemen have been playing right Dalvin Tomlinson has been having a really good year Zedaria Smith was a great signing you know I thought he's he's played pretty well this year as well and you know PFF has them as the third best run graded or graded run defense in the NFL right now so when you can kind of do all of that stuff it's a lot easier to talk yourself into sitting back, allowing your four down defensive linemen to take control of the game and to give help to your corners and safeties who you don't believe in as much. I think in the last game, we really saw it in particular Delvin Tomlinson's impact. He was terrific against the bears and they didn't

run the ball effectively at all for a team that actually has run it quite a bit. That to me is the key. And it's funny. And I'd love your opinion on this because all the time you see, you know, the passing teams should pass more and everything else like that. And we sort of roll our eyes at establishing the run and everything else. But I do feel like that there's a lot of dominoes that fall. If someone can run against you, if someone has an average running game and they run 25 times for a hundred yards, you're like, okay, well that didn't really do much, but if they're getting six yards to carry and they're blasting your run defense, the Vikings

were negative 45 points last year and expected a defense against the run expected points. That's horrendous. Like it's not, you're not going to win that way. And there's another part of it that offenses are in really beneficial situations. This to me is kind of the key to the castle for them. If Delvin Tomlinson and Harrison Phillips can continue to shut down opposing teams, run games after starting the season, a little rocky, I think everything starts to become harder, especially for these teams that are not perfect, like we're talking about with Arizona and Washington. Yeah, no, that's that's exactly right. And like this is the first year that we've seen, you know, the difference between passing efficiency league wide and rushing efficiency kind of yo-yo and get a little bit closer than it's been. Like there was such a wide gap between passing and rushing efficiency these past five years. And that's why so many of us analytics people are advocating for more passing. But because of just defenses being designed to stop the pass this year, quarterback play

being down a little bit and run blocking running back play being up, rushing efficiency isn't that far off from passing efficiency right now. So when you're able to actually stop the run and force them into expected pass situations, that's when we see quarterbacks usually get worse. The only two quarterbacks in the NFL that stay the same or get better in high expected pass situations are Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.

All the other quarterbacks you don't have to worry about when they get in those expected pass situations, you can expect them to play at a worse level. So that starts with stopping the run on first and 10 second and eight plus and in different situations like that. Folks, maybe you've noticed people in your office with what looks like an open tall boy at their desk in the morning at work, well, it's not a beer. It's more likely it's a can of liquid death, which sounds pretty crazy at first, but it's simply mountain water from the Alps. It's called liquid death because it will murder your thirst and kill plastic pollution, which does seem aggressive, but that's their mission, and they are donating 10% of profits to help

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I love this about the NFL. It it's always looking like, Hey, in the eighties, they would say this, right? Oh, it's like all passing. Everybody's throwing the ball over the place. And then in the nineties, it starts to come back a little bit. And then in the early two thousands, there were like no good quarterbacks because Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, all these guys, Steve young, they all retired. And we're kind of at that point right now. That's how I feel. It's almost like the early two thousands has kind of come back because the drew breeze, Tom Brady's a million years old. His face looks funny and he's not playing at the same level. Uh, Roethlisberger is no longer in the league. Like we've seen a lot of guys move out and we've also seen a lot of bust draft picks as well from the quarterback position that have not replaced them. So if you don't have

Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and this is where the Vikings fit in, I feel like this is the first year you could actually buy the idea that a middle quarterback, a Matt Hasselbeck of sorts could actually take your team somewhere. Yeah, no, that that's, that's so true. And I, you know, I don't, I think Kweisi Idofemenza, the Vikings GM might've seen this coming, but I'm not, I'm not a hundred percent sure because, you know, when he decided to make the decision to give Kirk Cousins the extension this off season and kind of lock in, you know, a couple more years with him than I think a lot of people thought he would, you could see the NFC in particular was ripe to take advantage of

by an average to above average, not elite quarterback with a good supporting cast and good coaching. And that's what's happening with the Vikings right now where they're favorites to win the NFC North, according to most sports books. So you can see the effects of, Vikings right now where, you know, their favorites to win the NFC North, you know, according to most sports books. So like, you can see like the effects of, all right, you have this, this average to above average quarterback. Meanwhile, the Packers have a better quarterback, but a much worse supporting cast. And you can see what the supporting cast is doing to help

Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Vikings, you know, stay a game ahead of the Packers in the division. What is the first Superbowl you remember, by the way? The first Superbowl I remember was Steelers Cardinals. I was, yeah, I was in college. It's kind of, yeah, there's a tad bit of an age gap. I'm sort of getting there where when I'm referencing things from the nineties, I have to remember or a Simpsons references from the 90s i have to remember or uh simpsons references from the beginning of the show i have to remember how old those references are

so even talking about how you know sean alexander was leading a team by running for 1800 yards is a little bit antiquated maybe in your world but i think that your world in the nfl has always been going more toward passing i don't know that there's any time in the last 10 years where we've been saying, no, actually having a run game and defense is, you know, going to potentially get you somewhere or that you can still have an elite passing game without an elite quarterback. There have been blip years though. 2017 was one of them. And case Keenum shined in that year it's crazy to look at like league quarterback rating and it's going up up up and then 2017 whoop goes way down

and then right back up because of a bunch of quarterback injuries so i want you to assess the nfc for me in context of the vikings and and knowing that there are still shortcomings of this team and so forth that we're critiquing and fans are concerned about and everything. But where do they fit in in comparison to the other teams who, other than the Philadelphia Eagles, are also looking at themselves and saying, I don't think we're really perfect. Yeah, I know. That know, with like where the Vikings are at right now, like the Eagles are, you know, a house and it's the combination of great supporting cast and their quarterback took a huge leap. Like they would have been a good team if Hurts stayed at the level that he played at last year. But he's playing a lot better this year. His accuracy is better. His aggressiveness is better. And then, you know, I still am, you know, the second tier of NSC teams is, you know, the Bucs, Packers, 49ers are in there.

And then there is a little bit of a drop off, I think, just because the next couple teams haven't shown that they've been able to put it all together like the Bucs, Packers, and 49ers have been. So you can kind of see the Vikings fit in right there where they're knocking on the door of tier two along with the Cowboys. But maybe they're not there yet because there's some, some things they still have to clean up on offense that could probably take them to the next level. So let me play a little better or worse game with you then in that tier. I think we all agree that Philadelphia is better than the Vikings. I think we agree that Dallas is better than the Vikings.

I mean, without a backup quarterback or with a backup quarterback, if you could go four and one, but how about assess the four and one giants versus the four and one Vikings? Yeah, I do think the Vikings are better than the giants. I think, you know, the giants story has been really cool this off season. And like, it's, it's super exciting to see like, you know, what coaching can do. But you know, when you when you look at the Giants, like, again, they've been kind of squeaking out these one score wins like the Vikings have had, but against worse teams until you know, this past week against the Packers. So I would take the Vikings in that game. But I don't think the spread would be more than, um, you know,

maybe like three, four points, which I think would be really interesting. How about the Vikings versus anyone except for San Francisco? Cause I'm buying San Francisco as being better than the Vikings for the complete roster, even though there's a win difference, they lost in the mud with Trey Lance, but I think that their whole roster is better. Everyone else in the NFC West though, are they better than everyone else in the NFC West? I do think they're better than everyone else in the NFC West. Yes. What do you think of the Rams? I mean, like, can they turn that around or is that just totally screwed? Yeah. So like the thing about the Rams was they kept when like their strategy for acquiring high-end players that are

usually known commodities was like building like a parlay with a bunch of like minus 400 legs, right? Like these are probably bets that are going to hit, but you never know for sure. And Alan Robinson is the bet that makes the parlay not hit. And so for him to come in and, you know, have one of the lowest separation average separation from cornerbacks in the league through the first weeks of the season here is like, you know,

the Rams offense just doesn't have enough juice. And then you add in that their offensive line went from top five last year to one of the worst in the NFL this year. And it was like a house of cards and you just pull one of the cards out from the bottom and it all kind of falls apart. So that's, that's where the Rams are at right now. And like, you know, the Vikings are going to be so much better at generating explosive plays than the Rams. And like, if they matched up against each other, that would be the difference between the teams. Yeah. The, uh, the Allen Robinson experiment is sort of a classic team. Doesn't really have another answer. Let's try an old guy.

And like, weirdly it worked with Odell Beckham, not as old, of course, but still kind of seemed a little washed before. And then all of the sudden he's explosive again. But I think that there were a lot of excuses made for Allen Robinson last year, but even with bad coaches, I tend to lean on, they understand what's happening with their players. And so there was a reason why he wasn't putting up the numbers that he had in the past. And, uh, that's cause he's washed. How about Tampa? How about Tampa Bay? Their defense is excellent. And I just have to believe that if Tom Brady's supporting cast gets even a little bit healthier, that the way he looked in that Kansas city game was like a guy who still has it. He was very accurate. He was getting the ball out. Their defense just got squished by Patrick Holmes as one does.

But I think that there's still a scary team. Yes, I know. Tampa Bay has been very tough to gauge this year because yeah, they, like you said, their defense has played so well, but their offense has jumped up and down depending on how, you know, how old Brady's feeling that day. Maybe it's the way he gets out of bed or something in the morning. I think I would have to lean Tampa over the Vikings right now, but it's very close. If we were to do a spread, I think, on a neutral field, Tampa Bay would be favored by about two points.

Mike Buey does betting market betting market ratings, you know, where he takes all the lines for the rest of the season and, you know, runs a model to get like how how much each team would be favored against an average team on a neutral field. And Tampa Bay is, you know, plus five point zero and which is fourth. And the Vikings are plus three point two, which is eighth. So, you know, they're two points apart from each other. Very close right now between those two teams i think that's fair and i also think it's fair to say like until brady is in a broadcast booth you just shouldn't bet against him as weird as everything is that's

going on i feel like it really crosses a line when people are reporting on him and his relationship with his wife and stuff like i's like, I don't know. I don't want to get into that. Of course, the one that everyone wants to know is Green Bay. Now, I don't know if you know this, Tej. There are power rankings that people have done recently that have the Packers ahead of the Vikings. It's a major controversy all over the world. People are discussing it.

Now, I've seen some angry Vikings fans. Who cares about power rankings? But these two teams, after the loss from the Packers to the Giants, I think you have to put them maybe neck and neck or a slight edge to the Vikings because that Packers team is just going to be flawed. But what do you think the numbers say on that? Yeah, I think the Vikings do have a slight edge against the Packers right now. The Packers offense is one of the worst offenses in the league on late downs. And it's because, you know, these receivers just don't have enough juice to beat you if you go into man coverage on

third down, like the Giants were doing so often in that game on Sunday morning. And like, you can just kind of see the difference between, all right, if we need to go get a bucket, if we need to go get a first down on fourth and one or third and six, like the very important downs, Justin Jefferson is going to get that for you. Or at least he'll get double cover to free someone else up to get that for you. Like how, uh, in the Vikings were able to score that final touchdown against the Lions that put them ahead. The Packers don't have anyone that's going to go get a bucket for you. And Matt LaFleur is, you know, struggling to get through this offense.

You know, he's usually been a really, really good play caller, really, really good head coach. He's been struggling this year to get through an offense without Devontae Adams. So I just want to take the Vikings in that situation. I'd feel more confident about them getting a first down on the Packers. Then I'd feel confident about the Packers getting a first down on the Vikings. It is a remarkable, but just a Jefferson, like the most unstoppable receiver in all situations. I mean, the only time he's been slowed down was when teams doubled him and tripled him for entire games. But then the Vikings made some adjustments and got him open and got him the ball like right after that, which I think really speaks well. And this is what I another thing I want to ask you about is just evaluating Kevin O'Connell, because my impression of him so far has been very good.

And a major part of that is that he's adapted some of the things. It looked like they came out at the beginning of the year and wanted to go shotgun and have Kirk, you know, do everything at the line of scrimmage. And then they said, you know, maybe we should run the ball and run some bootlegs. And that's been really effective. And now they're just mixing those two things. So if you're an opposing defense, you don't really know what formation they're going to be in, what personnel they're going to have. You don't know where Justin Jefferson's going to be. He had a slot fade that went for 30 yards or 40 yards against the Chicago bears. I mean, I think that he's kind of pushing all the right buttons and what it really comes down to is do they stay healthy and can cousins avoid that big dip that he's had many times during

his career? Yeah, no, I agree. I've been very impressed with Kevin O'Connell so far as well. And it's like the little things that we can notice in a game that I think are probably extending to so many other areas of how the Vikings are approaching their offense right now. And, or sorry, the team as a whole, like they are kicking it when they do kickoffs, they're kicking it before the end zone on a lot more kicks than the average team right now. And because when you have when you're forced to return a kick, the average yards is usually 20 yard line, if you get a

touchback is 25. So just gaining five yards there is like a small thing. But it's like something important that you know, you're doing. And, you know, another thing is the offense that he's running. So, you know, that my friend Ben Brown at PFF can do this offensive scheme analysis where he takes all the variables about your offense, you know, personnel usage, shotgun usage, motion usage, all that stuff, and kind of throws it into an algorithm that gives you a similarity score to every other offense in the league. So the teams that the Vikings offense is most similar to right now is the Browns, who rank very highly in all efficiency metrics, the Chargers, who also rank pretty highly, and the Seahawks. So these are teams that are running their offense as well. And Kevin O'Connell is running a similar offense to all of those teams, which has been really impressive. And we're finally seeing the,

all the draft picks that they put in the offensive line, similarly to how the Browns did it, where they kind of loaded up a lot on that offensive line, uh, come to fruition. I'm not declaring them the best line in the league yet, but they have far fewer weaknesses, which opens the door for Kevin O'Connell to do some things that maybe Gary Kubiak or even Kevin Stefanski couldn't in the past because they had weaknesses. So I have to ask you though, before I let you go, Tej, I mean, you are a Lions guy, University of Michigan from Detroit. What's going on? What's going on with that? What's up with that? Is it a real question though? The Dan Campbellbell thing do you remember mike

singletary in san francisco how i did not know okay but i've heard i've heard stories i've heard stories yeah okay so mike singletary he there was this incident where he benched vernon davis the tight end and after the game he went berserk it hilarious. Go look at it on YouTube where he says like, we can't win with guys like that. You can't win with them. And he has this huge, amazing rant. And everyone is like, yeah, let's go football. That's what the 49ers need.

What they really needed was Kyle Shanahan. They really needed someone to scheme and be a smart man, as opposed to just be like a former player, meet guy who, you know, shove nerds in lockers or whatever. we get all enthused about dan campbell and i think that he really does know how to connect with his players and get them behind him and like let's go and all that but there is a there is a bar for this for schematics that if you're not matching and game management and all these things, you mentioned

the kickoffs. I did a story on the kickoff thing. And it's a remarkable like that every kickoff that the Vikings have allowed to be returned had a lower EPA than kicking it out of the back of the end zone, which is like, which is like a really intelligent, intentional thing that they're doing. And that's how smart teams are getting now. And I just feel like there's a possibility with Dan Campbell that it's not going to meet that standard regardless of how much everybody cares about them. But you can tell me that I'm wrong on that. Cause I might be, it might just be bad luck and close games and some weird stuff for Detroit. Yeah, no, I'm, I'm kind of with you there. I think it's hard to, you know, it's hard to

evaluate head coaches cause we only can see what they do on game days. But you it's hard to, you know, it's hard to evaluate head coaches because we only can see what they do on game days. But, you know, just like kind of like the direction of the team, like I advocated strongly for hiring a young offensive mind, or it doesn't have to be young, but just someone who's offensive minded, because it's not necessarily they do bring an edge, you know, with their play calling on offense. But we've seen that the way they think about the NFL right now is a lot sharper than other types of head coaches. You know, the teams that were in the four teams that made the conference championships last year

were all offensive-minded head coaches. And, you know, we see Brian Dable doing really well in his first year with the Giants this year. We see Kevin O'Connell doing well in his first year with the Vikings this year. So when you get some type of culture changer, you're going to really have to nail, you know, every single other aspect of your ability to, you know, put out a serviceable offense. And it looked like it for the first part of the season when, you know, the Lions offense was playing at a high level. But last week you saw when you come out flat and you're supposed to be a culture guy

and someone who gets the players fired up. That can't be happening because that's the edge that you're supposed to give is effort and the amount of grit that you have and passion and perseverance. And they didn't have any of that against the Patriots last Sunday. So that's just why, you know, when, when he makes, you know, some, some controversial

end of game decisions, or when they come out flat, it does kind of worry me about his future as, you know, a viable head coach. Yeah, I think so too. And some of the things that they've done on offense are really good. The defense, obviously not so much, but i think just as a whole you can kind of see it i mean and this goes for someone like matt rule too where i think it was maybe adam schefter tweeted out the quarterbacks matt rule has had you know like i get that but you also kind of acted like a clown i'm just like you know like i like i'm totally understanding this but

kevin stefanski is winning some games with Jacoby Brissett. And how about, you know, even just when Brian Flores was the coach of the dolphins, they were winning some games with Tua that was in over his head or Ryan Fitzpatrick. They were competing. They were competing. And everyone was saying like, well, they're, they're playing it well. It's just, and I wonder if that's sort of the sign of a team that just looks a little bit lost with their head coach, who's a great guy, but is maybe not suited for what they need. I'm not ready to call it, but that's just been my impression so far.

All right. Final thing for you, Tej. in the NFL, which is people who are youthful, who have taken a hold of analytics and really already made a lot of interesting discoveries. And it's fascinating to see because you have so much at your fingertips to use and you're making the most out of it. And you're a great follow on Twitter and your podcast is tremendous. But here's what I want to know from you. So that's why you're a great follow on Twitter and your podcast is tremendous. Uh, but here's what I want to know from you. So that's why you're on the show. Uh, but I want to know when you're an old guy, when you're like 40 years old, who will you be? What will you be telling the youthful Tasia's when you're on, when you're having them on your podcast, as you're an old guy, like, what about the NFL? What references will you be making? Cause for me, it's always like, well, you know,

you remember that three, four Steelers defense back in 92. I mean, now that was a defense. What, what are you going to be telling the youths about? Do you think from your era of growing up watching football? Yeah. I love this question. And, you know, as, as I've been like, so into football these past couple of years up watching football? Yeah, I love this question. And, you know, as I've been like so into football these past couple years, especially Patrick Mahomes has defined this era of football. So I'm going to show the picture of him being down 24-0 at the beginning

of the second quarter in the Texans in a divisional playoff game, and then show the picture of him being up 28-24 going into halftime and say, this is how good Patrick Mahomes was. He scored four touchdowns in 12 minutes in a divisional playoff game. And that'll be what I pass on to the next generation. I love that. I watched that in a San Jose airport

after Vikings had lost to the 49ers and I was waiting to fly out. And so I was sitting there and I was all mad because I was like, I had to be there. I was there early for whatever reason, check out of the hotel. I was like, oh man, 24, nothing. Like I don't even get to sit here and watch a good game. And of course, you know, I had nowhere to be.

And they came back and won that game. The best part about it though, is that when, you know, you're double your age now and you're telling people about my homes and whatever else, there will be another Mahomes. And you're telling people about my homes and whatever else there will be another my homes. And you'll be like, now this reminds me of my home. Because when I see, when I see my homes and he is completely unique, uh, for the NFL, but you know, there's like early Dan Marino could move around and had this unbelievable arm

and John Elway. And like, there's always kind of a guy in the era. And even early Ben Roethlisberger was so creative and broke tackles and did this unbelievable arm and John Elway. And like, there's always kind of a guy in the era and even early Ben Roethlisberger was so creative and broke tackles and did all this stuff. Old Ben Roethlisberger was a travesty, but the young Ben Roethlisberger was so creative and use different arm angles and like found a way. So there's always been kind of these game breaking quarterbacks. And, and that's, it's kind of what makes the game fun is like where we kind of started out talking about where you have these developments and these changes. And then now we're going to have to see how offenses figure out how to play against these two deep defenses, because

I think so far, even Kansas city, you see times where they're struggling to figure it out the other night, even against the Raiders where the Raiders have adjusted a little bit, how they play against them. So I definitely think that like people in basketball, go back to the Jordan era bulls, or you might go back to the Dallas Cowboys of the early, you know, Troy Aikman or the 49ers. Kansas city is just going to be that team that we go back to all the time. Like how did they do it? Their quarterback. So that'll be interesting. You look forward to that in like 18 years.

Yeah. Yeah. I'll be like, remember when they had the best quarterback, best receiver, best tight end, best head coach on the same team at the same time. That's, that's definitely something I'll be saying in 20 years. I just, I just want you to do me a favor. Here's your homework is to look up 49ers and Cowboys in the early nineties, NFC championship game, maybe 94, 93. I think it's the best collection of talent ever because they just started free agency. So these teams have been built over years and they were able to stay together. Unlike this, these times where you have a Rams team, that's great. And then the next year they're not great. That happens all the time.

So anyway, well, there's a, there's your little history lesson, but make sure you do that because it's worth watching for football purposes. Plus the John Madden element is, is flawless. So Tej Seth take the points is the podcast it's with a Z and it's Tej FB it's T E J FB analytics on Twitter. You are a great follow. And it's been very cool, man, to see you start out as a PFF intern and then, uh, get a lot of, uh, I guess, uh, I don't know. Um, a lot of people paying attention to your work because it was very,

very good and now taking your podcast to the next level. So I love to see it and a great to connect with you. We'll do it again soon. Yeah, thank you so much for having me on. It's always so much fun to talk football with you. And I really appreciate it and hope the Vikings give you something exciting to write about throughout the season. Well, you can never count those chickens

before they hatch, but all right. And of course, thank you all for listening.