Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Let's talk about playoff races and Vikings-Bears' futures

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

Matthew Coller and Will Ragatz of Sports Illustrated usually break down the X's and O's of each upcoming matchup but this time with a mostly meaningless game they dive deep into playoff matchups for the Vikings and a little bit of the future. Does Kirk Cousins need to win a playoff game to get an extension? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Sports Illustrated's Will Reagans, as we always do leading up to the game. But, you know, for, what has it been now, 16 weeks, we have done a hardcore preview where we dove deep into the matchups that would define this football game. And then we predicted outcomes at the end of games. And you know what? We did pretty good at that this year,

except for me imploding with this Green Bay game in terms of my predictions. But aside from that, though, you know, there's kind of been a formula for how we do the show. Well, they're playing Nathan Peterman and the Chicago Bears in a mostly meaningless game where they're going to play their starters and they're going to play to win and they probably will. And I don't know what else I'm supposed to say about it. The Bears are absolutely horrendous and there's no reason the Vikings shouldn't get that point differential to the positive by the end of this game. Will, I mean, what is it that you would like to say about Vikings Bears?

Well, for starters, do we actually believe that they're going to play their starters? Because Kevin O'Connell said that earlier this week. He was asked if, like, it would be more, you know, minor changes, like Harrison Smith gets a few series off for Josh Metellus and various things like that, and we see Brian Asamoah and things they've already kind of been doing for a few weeks since wrapping up the NFC North. Or could we see, like, Kirk Cousins on the bench, Justin Jefferson, players like that?

And O'Connell said it would probably be more subtle because, you know, the two-seed is still in play. Technically, that is true. I have a very hard time believing that David Blau is going to beat the San Francisco 49ers as, like, 15-point underdogs when the Niners have won nine in a row and still with an Eagles loss are in the mix for the one seed. So I think the Nathan Peterman news might change things too. I don't know. It's hard for me to believe that the Vikings are going to go out there and go all out and play all these stars on the Soldier Field grass, which is notoriously kind of iffy, especially after what we just saw in Lambeau with their footing issues,

and go foot on the gas the whole way. And maybe if they're struggling and they're letting the Bears hang around and Nathan Peterman, then you have to if you want to win the game. But I think the ideal scenario here is you put your guys out there to start, you take an early lead, and then you start mixing in Nick Mullins and Jalen Rager and some of the guys we saw who played pretty well in garbage time at the end of that Packers game on Sunday. So, yeah, it's hard to really come up with a lot to get people fired up for this one. But still a very interesting time for the Vikings because you've got this game and then then it gets really real the following week.

Yeah. And later in the day, things are interesting with what happens with Arizona, although the fact that they're not playing DeAndre Hopkins is a pretty clear white flag from the Arizona Cardinals. We don't want to win this game. And Chicago doesn't really want to win this game either, which is why they're playing Nathan Peterman. And it's a hip injury for Justin Fields. And I did finger quotes that no one can see, but I did them very sarcastically about him not playing. And if this was Trevor Simeon, I actually have some respect for Trevor Simeon.

He's won games in the league before, but it's not. It's Nathan Peterman, who, by the way, has thrown six passes this year, and one of them was an interception. I mean, how? How does this man throw as many interceptions as he has and still retain a job in the NFL? I think that tells you how hard quarterback play is,

that he's still around and that teams have kept him employed and he's not playing in the XFL. So I don't think that this is a real game for them. I think it's mostly like we have to feel the team. We have to put on this game and people are going to show up and watch it. But yeah, other than that, like we just want the draft pick. So for the Vikings, I think the ideal situation is getting ahead early, being able to pull Kirk cousins in the second half. But still there's that part of me that says it's the NFL. And like all these guys are going to be like on Chicago. Hey, we're not tanking. not tanking like I'm playing my heart out here

and a lot of guys playing for jobs and every once in a while when that happens you'll see a surprising upset and the one that came to mind was Jacksonville last year where their coach has been fired everything has gone completely to hell but they could play a little spoiler and not that they're even really playing spoiler on the Vikings, but they can at least make the Vikings feel really sad going into the playoffs. And from the motivation on the Viking side, the only real inspiring factor is the small, small percentage chance that you end up with the number two seed. And the fact that you're trying to just get over what happened before. I think there's maybe a debate to be had whether that's real or not.

I tend to think not. I tend to think that players just go week to week and whatever happened the previous week is put in the back burner. And so, you know, if they blow out the bears or if they lose to the bears in really embarrassing fashion, in bear-ising fashion, then uh yeah i don't know like i i don't think that that makes any difference to what happens in terms of the playoffs yeah so you don't think there's a a bad taste in their mouth that they're trying to get out from that packers game and you know end the season the right way some things that we've kind of heard kevin o'connell say which is understandable it's it's coach speak and i I think there's maybe some truth to it and you

want to be cool for them to get their 13th win that's something that hasn't happened um very often the history of the Minnesota Vikings I know there's 17 games now and and all that but yeah the Bears you're right like play people always say like players don't tank the kind of front offices do like you tank with who you put on the field which is what we're seeing from the bears they're playing nathan peterman i don't know if they maybe have some other um i don't even know how many like veteran starter star kind of guys they have left after getting rid of roquan smith and some others like i don't know if maybe they'd hold somebody out like that but yeah the players on the field are going to be motivated because it's a lot of fringe

like bubble guys who want to put good stuff on tape heading into next season. And it's kind of – interestingly, it's the same thing with the Texans who, like Lovey Smith has said, they're going to go try to win that game, which would just be so bad for them. Like the Jets, the Trevor Lawrence year where they won a game and then they lost out on Trevor Lawrence. And if the Texans beat the Colts, who, by the way, are way are also abysmal and the Bears lose the Bears suddenly have the number one pick and they're kind of in a nice position where they don't really need to draft a quarterback if you believe in what you've seen from Justin Fields this year which I think most people do and I remember us talking about him before week five and how hey Justin Fields it hasn't really gone great and then like basically right after that he took off in his run for, like, 100 yards a week since then.

And it's not even an exaggeration, I don't think. Like, so they have the kind of position where if they get the number one pick, they'll be able to possibly trade it for an absolute haul for a team that wants to come up for a quarterback and move down and get somebody. I mean, even if you move down a couple spots, you can probably get some good compensation for that and end up with like Will Anderson or Jalen Carter or whatever. So, yeah, from the Bears' perspective, I'm sure the front office probably doesn't want to win this game, but the players on the field, they're going to want to win this game.

And this is the 2022 Minnesota Vikings we're talking about. I know it's no longer 2022 2022 technically but this team it it's not as simple as oh yeah just take an early lead and uh put in the backups and ease off and go win the game they don't do that ever like I from what we've seen this year they could play like the 2008 Lions or whatever is that the 0-16 team I think so I think so like they could play the 0-8 Lions and I would have trouble picking them to win by more than a touchdown. So, yeah, we'll see what happens here. The Vikings, on paper, should be able to kind of do that plan, but we still haven't seen it in quite some time.

Yeah, the funny thing about this is if you play all of your starters and you bludgeon the Bears who aren't trying, then of course it's just like, well, yeah, you should have their tanking. But if you don't, I mean, talk about like, you can only take a confidence hit. I don't think you could take a confidence gain. I think you can only take a hit here to be like, we couldn't even crush the bears after losing 41 to 17. And the 17 is kind of bogus. Like after getting murdered in green Bay and then going to Chicago. And if you don't blow them out, then you don't feel any better about yourself.

Especially if one of the worst quarterbacks in the history of Roger Goodell's national football league does anything against you. Can I just real quick read this man's stat line? He somehow he has a win that's amazing uh but uh nathan peterman has thrown a grand total of 141 passes in his career has three touchdowns 13 interceptions 52 completion percentage averages 4.2 yards per attempt meaning it would be better to hand off than for him to ever throw the football. A quarterback rating of 49.8.

I mean, this is... No, that's... I think you're looking at the wrong thing. His quarterback rating is 32.2. Oh, oh, oh, God. His yards per game is 49.8. Oh, wow. You're right. I was looking at the wrong category. That's even worse. That means that throwing the ball into the ground would have registered him a higher quarterback rating. His adjusted net yards per attempt, so if you adjust for sacks and interceptions, is 0.1.

Now, let me give you an idea that good quarterbacks are around 7. Yeah. I mean, that means it would be almost better to do nothing on a play than it would be to throw the ball with Nathan Peterman. And you're almost like, okay, so that was weighed down by that one famous game where he threw five interceptions in a half and completed six passes. But not really because that happened. And then the following year, he had three more multi-interception games. Like basically every time he played, he threw multiple picks. And then like you said he hadn't been played for quite some time he got in the game against the bills a couple weeks ago

threw five passes and managed to throw an interception on one of them like i i don't know it's got to be like something psychological but at the same time there has to also be a reason from a coaching staff perspective of like why he's still on a roster. Like he's not just designated tank commander. Like he's got to have some value here. And I'm sure he's a good dude and like smart and all that. But it just hasn't – the results have not been there on the field. So maybe this is kind of Nathan Peterman's last stand here to try to

prove that he should stick around on our roster in next season too well I am gonna look how much the Vikings could improve their defense ranking with a good game here like with a shutout how how much better could they move up from 31st in the NFL in terms of points allowed so let's see they can move up a few spots if they can get to like 27th if they get torched by Nathan Peterman even if you're like sitting Harrison Smith and Jordan Hicks for a bunch of plays and Daniel Hunter is there like I that doesn't that that does not matter if you get if they give up like even like 250 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers that is just really bad for just the confidence of your defense heading into the playoffs.

Particularly when you consider who their receivers are because Darnell Mooney is not going to play. Are we getting more ISM? Is he still there? No. Amir Smith-Marset got cut after the incident. And then he landed on the Chiefs practice squad. I knew that. Yes. the incident. Oh, yeah, and then he landed on the Chiefs practice squad. I knew that, actually.

Yes, the incident. Actually, multiple incidences in that game because he had the block in the back. That was the first play where I was like, okay, Justin Fields with the legs? This guy is legit. And then he got called back because of a needless block in the back. So it looks like their receiving core is Nikhil Harry Equinemius St. Brown Velas Jones and some of Chase Claypool but last week Chase Claypool had one target zero receptions and it looks like he played like 30 something plays Dante Pettis also Byron Pringle the guy who

did donuts in a parking lot and got in trouble before the season I mean this is a horror show they just lost to the Lions by 31 like yeah it's rough for the Bears right now it really is so here's my question about the Bears because there's really nothing to discuss here as far as this game aside from it can only be bad for the Vikings is the way that I look at it is especially even if they don't like get even if they don't lose even if they just don't play well it doesn't help you in any way to go against this team and struggle and also there's the injury element which I think I think it's just I think it's a scary noon to three for Vikings fans because of what you just saw with Brian O'Neill absolutely if that

happens to one more player I don't see how you go anywhere in the postseason especially on defense when they're already as weak as they are but I'm already concerned about can they go anywhere without Brian O'Neill and potentially without like anybody at center and when we like we talk about also an offensive lineman I mean sometimes it's just very hard to quantify. Like we have all these metrics for everyone else, but you tweeted out this yesterday, the stats of Brian O'Neill, his consistency from week to week is legitimately ridiculous. I mean, he just never has a bad game there.

I don't know that there's anybody I've ever seen like this on the offensive line that never gets graded for just one week, like below 50 based on some matchup or something he could take on anybody in the entire league in a league where guys are rushing off that side more than they used to back in the day where it was just right defensive ends who were great yeah no it's i think the stat was every full game he played this year he had at least a 63 pff grade which is 60 is average like that's above average most of them are in the 70s or low 80s like he's not piling up like christian derrissaw like 90 grades but like he's just the

steadiest dude ever where you just don't really have to worry about your right tackle position which like you said is a really valuable thing and then i think there's also something to be said about kind of the leadership that where he's the longest tenured guy in that room he's a team captain he's like a really respected locker room presence and it's a big big loss and yeah they have to I mean they're going to try to win this game but the one of the primary concerns going into this week is let's not get anybody important injured because that would be just such a kind of another psychological blow to your team like to lose another player of that caliber or even not it wouldn't even have to be somebody that important but just any sort of contributor if you lose that you're like man we

it's kind of falling apart here uh as we head into the wild card round yeah and you know even just playing justin jefferson at all seems every every route he runs on the soldier field grass is just like, is this necessary? I don't know. I'm not trying to, like, scare everybody. I just like this is one that I think everyone's going to be nervous watching because, you know, it's basically worthless unless San Francisco completely blows it. And Brock Purdy turns back into a pumpkin and all of a sudden, like somehow they get the two seed. Uh, but now here's an, here's an interesting scenario. And I want to talk about the, really the NFC North in the future here. Cause that's kind of

all the bears have to talk about, but, uh, would you rather get the two seed and someone hurt, but I don't tell you who gets hurt or you get just the three seed and come out healthy. I think it's the three seed and come out healthy for sure. I think the more interesting question is, would you rather have the two or the three seed period and not even throw in an injury? And common sense says that you would rather have the two seed. And I think I would probably still lean in that direction because from a long-term perspective like if the Vikings are trying to win the Super Bowl this year which they are no matter how realistic you think that is from the team that's ranked 28th in DVOA like having the higher seed is better because especially if it in the second round if it's

Vikings 49ers having that at US Bank Stadium I would feel so much better I mean they I don't think they would be favored but I would feel a much better. I mean, I don't think they would be favored, but I would feel a lot better about them having a chance in that game versus if they go to Santa Clara for the divisional round for the second time in four years. So that part of it, you'd think you want the two seed. But just from a first-round perspective, I think you would much rather be in the situation they're currently in to face the Giants versus probably Aaron Rodgers and the Packers or maybe the Seahawks or Lions if Packers lose.

But yeah, I think I think from the first round perspective, like them losing last week might have almost helped set up a much easier matchup because we know they can beat this Giants team at home. We just saw it a couple weeks ago. Folks, if your New Year's resolution was to treat yourself a little bit better, I've got a suggestion. Death. That is liquid death, actually, because it's a delicious mountain water that comes in a tall boy can, and I am telling you, it just tastes different.

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that would just be if you are concerned about the lions packers like i don't know are you really that competitive to begin with like everyone wants an easier matchup for sure you don't want to face rogers when he's feeling more confident you certainly don't want to face a top five offense when you can't stop anyone i was just looking at daniel jones's big time throw percentage and it's the only person who's lower in the league is Matt Ryan, but actually it doesn't require big time throws to beat the Vikings. It really just requires throwing to wide open receivers over the middle of the field, which he did effectively. But I just think in general, like none of those teams, if you are

a big time contender should be scary to you, but the team that is scary to you is san francisco so in the second round right i mean like if you can't beat any of those three teams then you weren't going anywhere anyway yeah i mean the the packers i will just maintain are not good i still think they're not good after seeing them i i don't think they're bad but i think that they are what their record says they are they're like a 500 team who can play pretty well at times or pretty bad at times. And even there were moments in that game early with their offense where Aaron Rodgers gets sacked for a 16-yard loss on fourth and one.

You're like, I don't know if this team has really got it going on. You know what I mean? We were talking about that. We were like, they were down early off of a couple weird plays, like a kick return touchdown, an interception return touchdown. And we're like, the Packersers offense just hasn't looked that good which makes you think the Vikings might have a chance to get back into it and then they just kept shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers and it turns out they couldn't really stop the run which is a big deal when you're trying to come back from a two score deficit but yeah the the funniest thing to me

would be like the 49ers have dominated the Packers in the playoffs and they've been kind of the underdog in a lot of those games and they've ended the Packers seasons in NFC championship games and whatever if the Packers beat the Lions it sets up a potentially very interesting scenario where the Packers could be the seven seed go to San Francisco as the two seed and maybe flip that script because the 49ers are the much better team but the Packers are hot right now and if you just boil it down to Aaron Rodgers against Brock Purdy which I know there's a lot more to uh football than that but that would make you think the Packers would have a chance in that game if they play the way they've been playing recently oh I agree yeah I mean I wouldn't count the packers out which like vikings fans might be rooting for because

then that sets up a second home game it yeah i guess cowboys or bucks right they would play cowboys probably although although tom brady although tom brady throws for 400 yards and that would be funny too because the cowboys have like eight more wins than the bucks but they have to go to tampa because you know, NFL playoff system and all that. Right. Divisions. And just Mike McCarthy and Dallas kind of has this tendency. If I'm Dallas and I peeked over at the box score of what Tom Brady did against Carolina, I'd be like, oh, come on. Like just now he finds it. But it really looks like he found it in that game. And you don't want to overreact, but it's looks like he found it in that game.

And you don't want to overreact, but it's Tom Brady. They also have a good defense and weapons that are getting healthier. Like, I wouldn't want to face them at all. Yeah, just when it comes to the discussion about the Vikings and their chances in the playoffs overall, those scenarios that you just laid out are exactly why I'm not willing to be like, well, you know, they have a negative point differential, so there's no chance number one or number two seeds. And then all of a sudden you get the Tennessee Titans are the number one seed.

They're a paper tiger of a one. Cincinnati draws a favorable matchup. And with the Vikings, it's the same kind of thing where if you play a team that has a great defensive line and so forth, that it's going to be hard for you. But if you get a little bit favorable of a matchup or a team gets a guy hurt or whatever, like there's so many things that can happen in the playoffs that we just can't sit here and predict at this moment. But I think that if you are the Vikings, you do kind of want Green Bay because I think they have a better chance against San Francisco. Maybe that's wrong. I don't know because Detroit's offense is so good.

But it feels like Green Bay would have a better chance. I don't know. I don't know how you feel about that. I definitely would believe a little bit more in Green Bay going against San Francisco than I would the Lions. This Lions team, they're fun. And it's a cool story that they really turn things around. And they do have a genuinely good offense, but I just wouldn't trust them in that.

That feels like a bad matchup to me, them going to San Francisco. That San Francisco would be able to shut down a lot of things that they do well on offense and really kind of fluster Jerry Goff. And it also seems like the Lions— Who Wes Phillips is a big fan of, apparently. Yeah, Wes Phillips was a big fan. He should be. He went to the super bowl the thing with jared goff that always blows me away is when people act like he's a horrible quarterback like i don't know man the guy has operated three top five

offenses how many quarterbacks in the league have operated three top five offenses like there's there's a lot of value in just throwing the ball where you're asked to throw it all of us want my homes everyone in the whole universe wants my homes but it's sort of like i don't know maybe i could come up with an nba comparison where okay my homes is like jordan or kobe bryant but what's jared goff like a dame lillard or something i don't know like a really solid player i think dame is a little bit still too spectacular yeah yeah a little too highlight really um like somebody where there's no highlight reels and yet the guy is just consistently really good yeah like like julius randall or something yeah there you go that's that's right julius randall somebody who's just really solid yeah i don't know uh not quite a not quite a carl malone um because he put up too many points, but somebody can help me out with an NBA comparison there.

But there's a lot of players like that in sports that do not have the highlight reels and everything else, but do their job pretty solidly and really well, and their teams win and they put up big stats. Like Jared Goff has 4,200 yards, 29 touchdowns, seven picks, and a top five offense. And sometimes it's like, I don't know, is he any good touchdowns, seven picks and a top five offense. And sometimes it's like, I don't know. Is he any good?

Like, yeah, I think he's good. But if you put them on a horrible team, probably Patrick Mahomes on a horrible team is like 500 or better, probably still better. Jared Goff is obviously not that. So, but if you're talking about a playoff matchup, I think that the lions play games where it's either home run or strikeout. They either put up 40 and play great, or they give up 300 yards rushing. There's major variants with that team where the Packers play this grind it out. I mean, most of the time, if they don't

get a kick return for touchdown and three picks, but you know, they're going to win like 21, 17, which makes it, you know, kind of, I, even the playing field a little bit with a team like San Francisco that a lot of times wants to play the same way. Yeah, and I just think ceiling-wise, the Packers have a much higher level that they can get to on both sides of the ball than the Lions do. I just still don't trust the Lions' defense at all. I mean, they came into the season as the heavy favorites in the NFC North

kind of for a reason. And we've seen that a little bit. I mean, their five-game winning streak here is kind of interesting to me because, like, that Vikings game, there was just a bunch of weird things that happened. The Vikings, like, showed up wearing ballet flats and couldn't, like, stand up straight. And, like, Tua in the previous game on Christmas was quite possibly – I think he was, in fact. It's been confirmed that he was probably concussed in that second half and was throwing the ball directly to the Packers,

and they had a couple wins over bad teams before that. So you're still not necessarily like, all right, the Packers are going to come out of nowhere and make a run to the Super Bowl as a seven seed because we saw a lot of their problems earlier in the season. But just talent perspective, you saw Preston Smith is a good player like Devondre Campbell Jair Alexander played extremely well against Justin Jefferson the other day so um and then obviously Aaron Rogers is is still Aaron Rogers and has made some really good throws the past couple weeks so

I I still would definitely uh trust them more so as weird as that is for Vikings fans, I think, I mean, definitely you can root against them this week if you want, like root for the lions or whatever. But if you want the Vikings to have two home playoff games as a three seed, the Packers are probably the best bet to get you there. Yeah. Telling people to root for the Packers. I'm not,

you do whatever you want to do, whatever you're mentally, you can kind of grapple with. Well, the most important thing is it doesn't matter what you root for. Whatever's going to happen is going to happen. That's a good point. That is a common question of like, who should I root for? It doesn't matter.

I mean, I get what you're saying. You would prefer that, but your rooting does not change anything. The only thing your rooting changes is like your mood after the result. Yeah, that's a good point. That's a good point. So let's talk about the bears future for a second here. If the bears get the number one draft pick and take will Anderson,

which I think they might do, or they might trade down and take them at number two or they should take him. He's a monster player. He's like a Khalil Mac. Like they need that guy. They need lots of guys. We're not really in draft scout mode yet. There is going to be an interesting conversation between Will Anderson and Jalen Carter on Georgia.

He looks like a Chris Jones, Quinn and Williams type of interior defender, which can be really, really valuable as well. But then it's like Will Anderson, absolute stud on the edge. Either way, one of those two. They'll take one of those two guys. Who knows who will be better, but one of those two guys. I was just picking Will Anderson because it seems like in mock drafts I've seen, he's always in the top three. So let's just say that they're taking him.

I think that their next season could be like what we've seen from the lions this year and not in them getting a top five offense all of a sudden, but like the lions drafted Aiden Hutchinson and they went out and they got some players to put around Jared Goff and they are a very competitive team that is also not a real contender yet. But I think we would all agree that Detroit is on the best path that they've been on since I don't even know when they had one year under Jim Caldwell, where they had like a top five defense and they were, they were pretty darn competitive. But aside from that, I mean,

it, most of the time it was like the rebuilding Lions forever. This is the best path that they've been on. Chicago, I trust a little bit less because I think, A, they're really far away roster-wise. And so signing a handful of players will not just resolve all their problems. But also, I'm not totally convinced that Justin Fields is going to be the next like great quarterback where I know exactly what Jared Goff's going to do. Like Jared Goff's going to keep doing this. And I think the Lions should stick with Jared Goff for now. And if they need to make a change eventually, like Goff to Stafford, then they can do that. But with Fields, when I look at his numbers, I mean, I'm

amazed by what he could do running wise and his passing is better but he leads the nfl in sacks he's got way too many turnover plays his big time throw rates not that high and and like receivers and linemen and all these things they matter a ton in the nfl but there's still moments with that guy where you're like i don't know if he sees it like i don't know if he just sees where he's supposed to throw the ball or the decisiveness is there. So next year is really going to tell the story with them. But, like, how far along in their rebuild do you think they can get to in a short period of time before next season? I think they can go pretty far because they have so much at their disposal in terms of assets i think it's a really actually interesting question is would i rather right now be a fan of the detroit lions or a fan of chicago bears and i think you are saying that you would pick the lions here i think so because a they're further

along they have a more complete roster right now they have a known quantity quarterback who's playing well i get the feeling they're probably going to lose Ben Johnson to somebody else if not this offseason pretty soon so that's maybe a concern I might go the other way though and and go with the Bears because I just believe in the upside of fields he's not a better quarterback than Jared Goff right now by any means but the rushing talent is is special it's Lamar Jackson it's Michael V Vick. It's on that level. And I think you've seen some flashes of him throwing the ball. And a big thing for me is it's hard for me to evaluate him throwing the ball when Riley Reif's been his best offensive lineman at times and Byron Pringle's been his number one wide receiver.

Those are slight exaggerations. But the roster around him has been just horrendous outside of maybe running back and Cole Komet at tight end. So they have a lot of work to do, Ryan Pohl, to set them up and to really put a competent roster around Fields next season so you can truly evaluate in year three what is this guy's ceiling. And I think if they put those pieces around him, I mean, 2023 cap space. Second place with the most cap space is the Atlanta Falcons with 69 million.

Nice. Nice. First place is the Chicago Bears with 119 million. Oh, my gosh. They are 50 million more than anyone else. They have gotten rid of everything on their books this year, clearly in a deliberate plan to set themselves up where they're going to have a top, maybe the number one draft pick, which I think you'd be smart to move down to two or three and try to get some more out of that. Other top draft picks, I'm sure.

Although, for some reason, they traded a second rounder for Chase Claypool, which just looks so bad. Not great. in cap space they can go out and sign a bunch of like impact veterans who can just be competent and are good and help elevate or help justin fields elevate the whole thing so i don't know i think it comes down to how much you believe in fields which i think i'm higher than him on maybe higher on him maybe than you are and then how much you believe in like ryan poles which i think is a little shaky so far but i i like to think that he's still probably a good general manager, and they just have all these assets in front of him. So I don't even think next year, I mean, I think the Lions could even keep ascending next year. I don't

think the Bears are going to catch them, but if the Bears take big steps to sort of look like the Lions next year, where they're hovering around 500, I think you'd feel really good about them going into 2024. And so I do think if you ask me to kind of pick one of those two teams right now for the next three or four or five years, I think I would go with the Bears. It could look a lot like Jacksonville, where they were so horrendous, and then they spent a ton of money, and everyone said, well, I don't know if you've got good deals. And yet it didn't matter because they had so much cap space and they became a very competitive team about halfway through the season when they started to really put the gas down

and Doug Peterson's coaching started to take hold. And I don't think from watching Chicago that Matt Eberflus is some sort of terrible coach. I guess we'll find out when he's got more talent if he can coach or not. This is a year that's just completely lost for them. But your point about the salary cap space this is what makes it so interesting to talk about them in the Vikings not the game that they're going to play but just from where they are because from day one of Ryan Pohl's picking Chicago and and we don't know this for sure but part of his decision

had to be influenced by the blank slate you don't have to keep anything you buy the house and you get to remove all the furniture take the paintings off the wall knock down the barn out back and build a basketball hoop you could do whatever you want in the future where what quesia da fomenta took over they're like no no we've got some sentimentality here you know we really like that fireplace wallpaper up if you want, but that's about it. Right. It's furnished. You can hang windows or you can hang paintings, but you can't punch holes in the walls.

And that's a very different situation. And it's paid off for the Vikings. It's been a success because here they are. I mean, I don't want to say it's a complete success yet because I think they have to win in the playoffs first, but they're here. They're in a position to compete for the Super Bowl. It worked for you and it worked for Ryan Poles to be the worst team in football and to reset everything with their salary cap and move on from all old players. And where these two teams go from here, there's just no argument that the Vikings are in a better spot for the future for right now. Of course, like one team's playing Nathan Peterman and the other team's preparing for to spot for the future for right now of course like one team's playing

Nathan Peterman and the other team's preparing for to compete for the Super Bowl but as far as the future goes when we weigh those assets what anchors do you have which the Vikings have a lot of financial anchors yeah and on the uh this is the spot track um cap space rankings that I was just referencing. Vikings are 26, that negative 7.5 million. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're not the Saints here, like minus 60 somehow, but it's not great. Not only that, but you have also players who, like Patrick Peterson. I mean, if Patrick Peterson isn't saying,

come back to the negotiating table here after I was your number one corner and played great all season long and was the only thing you had back there. Right. And so, you know, the Tomlinson, right. Yeah. He needs to be extended because they did the whole void thing with his contract. And those are suddenly by the beginning of next year in the offseason, those things are suddenly going to be very dicey to tiptoe around. And the Vikings can still be a really competitive team next year. It's probably similar to this year though. Can you get better from this year next year? Probably not. You're aiming for at best repeating the strength that you had where the bears are kind of going to come hard and fast, uh, recent tanking teams.

It hasn't worked for all of them it certainly hasn't but you know someone like miami had a quarterback that was being questioned didn't have a great supporting cast then they get tyreek hill and everything is different and i think that's what you need to be concerned about for vikings fans looking at chicago is that there's just i mean everything is there it's like there was that 60 minutes report the one time i don't know this is like a deep cut reference where michael jackson walks into this incredibly high-end art store and he's just going like and this has been tweeted a handful of times so maybe you've seen it out there but he's just like i want that and i want that and i'd like that it's like that's chicago this offseason

they're just like i'll take one of those i'll'll take some linemen. I'll take some D linemen. Like, they can do whatever they want. That does not guarantee success for sure. But if you're talking about which team in the five-year plan has kind of a clear outlook where the other team is going to have to reset a lot of positions on the fly, I mean, I think that if you're the GM of one of those teams, your job is way easier to be Ryan Poles right now than it is Kweisi Adafo Mensah oh absolutely I mean yeah they the Bears

have a clear kind of direction that they're going to go and they're going to spend a lot of money and they're going to start trying to build this thing whereas we are in for yet another offseason of the Vikings being kind of in limbo a little bit, where they have these veteran contracts, Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Cook. What are they going to do with stuff like that? We're obviously going to have the Kirk Cousins discussions again because it's another situation where after the season, he only has one year left on his contract with the extension.

It's going to be another interesting offseason for the Vikings for sure, whereas the Bears just have one goal to go out and do in free agency and just spend a ton of money. And the Vikings have a lot of decisions to make. And the interesting thing is there could be a situation where the Vikings get better next year. Let's say year two, Kevin O'Connell's offense. Year two, maybe Donatello's defense or maybe a new defense.

I don't know. We'll see about that. Yeah, I'm a little – that's a whole other discussion. But, like, they could improve because they're going to probably give Justin Jefferson a huge contract extension and keep him around, and he's really good. And Christian Derrissaw is going to continue to play really well. And maybe they start to get some stuff out of their draft class from this year if Seen and Booth and people like that can stay healthy,

and Asamoah can kind of be what we've seen in a more full-time role and things like that. They could be better next year. They're not guaranteed for regression in terms of team quality, but they could be better next year and be like 9-8 because they're not going to win, go 11-0 in one-score games, and there's going to be some regression probably in that sense. Kevin O'Connell is at some point in his career going to lose a one-score game,

I think, could happen as soon as the playoffs this year. I don't know. But that's what's really interesting about the Vikings is they could still go up slightly. I don't think they necessarily have to have plateaued. But also, what is the ceiling when you're running it back with Kirk Cousins' core and kind of everybody that's in place right now? I don't know. Whereas with the Bears, it's so much more of an unknown where you are down here's in place right now i right i don't know whereas with the bears it's so much

more of an unknown where you are down here at the bottom right now by it very like you you're three and 13 it's it has not gone well but there's a clear kind of way for you to envision that just kind of doing the jaguars thing and going up and kind of almost exponentially uh improving over the next three or four or five years right and one thing you know about Fields is that he's not Zach Wilson. You know that he is a success to some extent and could win you football games under the right circumstances where he's not a bust. There are questions, but he's not a bust.

So since we're on this topic and this game doesn't matter to either one of us and we can talk about whatever, let's say that Kirk Cousins, and I've got a comparable for this that might sort of blow your mind a little bit that Kirk Cousins signs in this off season, a five year, $150 million contract with $94.5 million guaranteed. This is another quarterback. I'm not going to tell you who it is.

Oh, this is an exact contract that has happened. So this is a, an exact contract that has happened by a somewhat comparable quarterback. Honestly, a probably better quarterback than Cousins, but not by a ton. And who he was at this time, maybe I'm giving it away, but like who he was at this time is probably similar to what Kirk Cousins is right now. A five-year $150 million deal with 94 guaranteed.

Would you do that for kirk cousins oh man is this a recent thing should i try to guess who it is or that's kind of that's kind of getting away from the the question here um man that is i would be i i don't think i would that was a 34 year old matt ryan i was gonna i was thinking matt ryan yeah because of the way you you framed it i was thinking matt ryan right yeah he was removed from the mvp and all that wasn't the same quarterback from when he won mvp in 2016 it it wouldn't stun me if like the kevin o'connell and grace you don't mention the vikings wanted to do something like that and they really believe like,

Hey, the toughness Kirk's shown this year, the late game stuff, the way he's played in this offense over the course of the season. Like if they just want them to be their guy, that's kind of, you're, you're still,

it's, it's the discussion we've had for years. Like you're, you're, you're giving yourself a floor, but you're paying a lot for it. And you're not really sure how much ceiling you're giving yourself so i i don't know i would be skeptical to do that but then again if you go

in another direction who knows where you end up at quarterback like you're gonna roll the dice in the draft are you gonna sign somebody else like it just becomes this whole this whole mess so i could see them potentially opting for the stability and then the floor there i i don't know okay here's a question you also got to pay justin jefferson five years 150 million or more uh and christian derisaw and christian derisaw yeah i don't know uh and daniel hunter and daniel hunter there's a lot of people to pay that are going to be parts of this future uh and you don't have $120 million like the Bears do. Do you think that the result of the first round playoff game will swing how they feel about extending Kirk Cousins?

Oh, the 2019 New Orleans Saints question, huh? Right, because it sounds ridiculous to ask. Like, what the sample size is gargantuan with this guy, but it's happened before. It literally has happened before where them winning that game in New Orleans positively impacted the futures of Kirk Cousins and actually Mike Zimmer at the time as well. But man, I don't know. I,

I don't necessarily think it should. It kind of ties into something that I've been thinking about as we were recording this and even just throughout the week. Like what do we determine as a success for this and even just throughout the week um like what do we determine as a success for this season are they already there because i think you could argue coming into the season with the expectations they had first year head coach coming off two rough seasons where they missed the playoffs the whole culture was kind of soured under mike zimmer you could make an argument that this has already been kind of an overwhelming success. They've won the NFC North, they've won 12 games, and maybe

more importantly, the concrete stuff with the culture and with Kevin O'Connell being a long-term encouraging head coach is right there. I don't think anybody really questions whether Kevin O'Connell is going to be the guy here for a while with just the, obviously the on-field offensive acumen, that stuff's really important, but just the off-field, like the leadership, like the way he gets guys to buy in and care and the atmosphere that he's cultivated. So in that sense, you could call it a success. But when you win all these games, you kind of raise the bar a little bit. And I think if they go into U.S. Bank Stadium against Danny Dimes and the New York Giants and they lose that game by 10,

I don't know if people are looking back at this season all that fondly. I mean, I think probably after some time they still would because a lot of awesome things happened this year, a lot of really, really fun games if you're a Vikings fan, a lot of really just exhilarating wins. And then, you know, they've been down 40 and 41 to 3 a couple times but that's neither here nor there but so that's I guess I would be curious to know what you think like are they is it already a success or do they need to at least kind of win the wild card game and maybe not lose by 35 in san francisco i think that as of this moment they're probably leaning toward another

short-term extension uh but on kirk's side he's gonna look at matt ryan he's gonna look at russell wilson similar ages and go that's what you need to pay me and i if you're the vikings like how do you even make that happen you know because he going to, he expressed this at the beginning of the year, wanting to be a Viking for life. So if you're going to be a Viking for life, that's like a five-year contract. If that's what he's asking for, like, hey, guys, I did the winning thing that you asked for. I did the clutch thing that you asked for. And he's sort of, in a way, like half snarkily referred to that before of just like,

well, you you know if they want me here long term i gotta win more games which has always been true uh and so now he's won the games so if you're his agent you're gonna be like well you guys need to fully buy into him as your quarterback because he's proven he can get you there but if you're quesia dafomensa and you're the analytics gm and you're all about projecting toward the future. This is Kirk Cousins worst statistical season. And when they put everything on his back to operate the offense and it was, it's a, it's a good offense for sure. But are you going to project it forward to get better when he's going to be 35? And, and we've talked about like Russell Wilson hit that age thing. Matt Ryan hit that age thing like

it's already here it's not getting better that arm isn't getting stronger from here on out he's not getting faster and my god is he taking a lot of hits this year so if you're projecting forward five years like you're just asking to put yourself in an even worse position when you have to pay those other players but like you said at the same time, there's a stability element to this for someone like Kevin O'Connell that if you draft a quarterback and you move on from Cousins after next year, you don't know what's coming after that. But I guess it does work out timing wise to already have Justin Jefferson at that point under a long term contract that makes him the most expensive quarterback in the league. So they could choose to just let this thing play itself out. At the

same time, it benefits them cap wise next year to extend him, lower that cap for at least the first part of it. And then like kick that can down the road again. I think it is a really difficult decision for them what to do unless he goes to the NFC championship or Super Bowl. And then it becomes much easier because everyone's going to be on board with him signing a contract extension. If he throws for 212 yards at six yards a pass and they lose 24, 17 in the first round of the playoffs, I don't know how you sign an extension. I just don't. That's how much that last impression always ends up sitting with people.

But I think they would have to look at it and be like, it was a good year for him. He was super clutch. They respect him a ton. But at the same time, that's kind of who you have here. And we can maybe do better. It occurred to me that I didn't actually answer your question, but I agree with you that I think there's a baseline level here where like

which is we're probably which is what we're expecting i think maybe they win another three point game against the giants and we all write about the one score stuff and then they go to san francisco and they lose by like 15 or something and then you're like all right that didn't really change our our opinions or or what we know here we already saw a big sample size of something and then you're like all right that didn't really change our our opinions or or what we know here we already saw a big sample size of that and then it's obviously either way it's still a really interesting decision but you're right if they go beat San Francisco or beat Dallas or beat whoever in the second round go to the NFC championship game competitive in the NFC championship game obviously if they win and even go to the Super Bowl, I think you're really talking about Kirk Cousins and kind of a long-term, what are we

going to... Let's keep this relationship going. And then the opposite being if it's just a mess in the wildcard and they don't get out of that round. I think those games do matter. And the sample size is large, but I think you're going to look at those things. If you're Quasey Adolfo Menzi, you're like, I want to, let's see what happens here because it's legitimately interesting. And I just wonder how much like a guy like Quasey and other GMs around the league look at like the Russell Wilson thing and just say like, man, tying yourself to a good, but not like elite.

At one point, Russell Wilson was probably elite. Yeah. He definitely was. But a good aging quarterback who happens to be from the same draft class as Kirk Cousins for a long time. That can get you in trouble real quick if he falls off a cliff like Russell Wilson did. Because, oh my God, if you're the Denver Broncos right now. And I think George Payton's a really smart dude and like a good gm but he made he he put his eggs in that basket and it has gone horribly and

now they have to pay russell wilson like millions and millions and millions of dollars i mean that's not even like all nfl top quarterbacks get that but a lot even compared to the top quarterback they are paying him a ton of money for a long time. They can't get out of that. Like the dead money would be just so astronomical. They can't get out of that until like 2025 or something. And you don't have any draft picks. So it's, that is a really good cautionary tale right there of what can happen when you

go all in on like a 32 yearyear-old good, maybe great quarterback even. Well, it happened after Flacco won the Super Bowl that they were just not that competitive for years after that, and part of it was signing him to that huge contract extension. It happened with Matthew Stafford. He had his final great season and then got hurt a bunch this year, as he so often does, but he didn't in their super bowl run and with cousins i mean there is another way to look at it like this was the best you were

going to do in terms of winning with him and it's probably not getting better than this unless you believe he's going to lead eight game winning drives again next year an nfl record like when he averaged two or three per season before this, get the man, a right guard who can pass. Well, that is true. And then, you know,

that, that argument is always made like, well, if you just get them this and you just get them that. And look again, he deserves all the credit for winning those games and for commanding the offense, the way that he has and getting them to the point where they can go and

have a chance to compete for the Super Bowl. But that's not the discussion. The discussion is, are you gambling on someone who's going to be 35 and then a five-year contract out in front of that? That's a really tough gamble to make. If they go out in the first round, I don't know how you can do it. But it also seems really weird to say that one game at US Bank Stadium against the Giants is what you're going to hinge your entire decision on.

It's also the reality of the NFL. Like, I really think that if Derek Carr had won the playoff game against Cincinnati last year, that he'd still be a Raider right now, that they'd be like, well, look, he won in the playoffs last year, so let's give him another season. It's just how this works that like there's so and even ryan tannehill like do they draft malik willis if ryan tannehill wins the playoff game against cincinnati those games just carry so much weight and i think that it will with this decision uh with uh kirk cousins so i think if i'm quacey like the whole five-year idea would really scare me with Kirk Cousins.

So I think I would be trying to – I mean, you don't have to just keep doing a one-year extension after one-year extension. But if he looks good in this playoff run and they win some games and you can sort of talk yourself into, like, all right, his connection with Justin Jefferson has been really good. His like he's improved over the course of the season under O'Connell. Let's maybe try to have a season where he's not like setting records of the most times getting hit. Like this can continue to be something like maybe I offer like a three year deal. Yeah. At like thirty five million a year or whatever it is. But price is going up though man i mean it's quarterbacks are gonna be asking for 40 prices across the league are going i mean

justin jefferson's gonna get the he's gonna get 30 he's gonna get the biggest contract ever given to a wide receiver yeah and rightfully so and that could be another part of the equation is like you know aaron rogers is getting like 50 mil. I mean, it's just crazy. And has there been that big of a difference between those two at the quarterback position this year? Like not really. If anything, Kirk has probably been better on the, on the whole than Aaron Rodgers has been this year. So anyway, uh, this term, I have a question for you. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. If the Vikings elevated Josh Rosen from their practice squad on Sunday, could they beat the Chicago bears with Josh Rosen playing quarterback? Yeah. You think so?

Well, they've got Nate Peterman. Josh Rosen is definitely... That would be funny though, because those are the two worst quarterbacks of the last six years, statistically. Do you think someday Rosen has a moment? I think Josh Rosen could win that game. You think he has a moment ever? I'm not

saying that he'll ever become good, but that he has some game where he's playing backup quarterback for somebody starter gets hurt he throws for 320 and four touchdowns oh josh rosen former top 10 pick here's my argument for why this someday will happen matt barkley yeah matt barkley had one of those games after playing for a ton of teams he had to play for Bills one game and just went completely nuts. Matt Flynn did it like the brand. The random quarterbacks have done this around the league. It does happen.

But I do think if they elevated Rosen and played him that they could beat the Bears. They wouldn't do that over because they're going to play Nick Mullins. Yeah, they play Mullins. They could definitely beat him with Mullins. Oh, absolutely. I think they should. I think that's what should happen after after a couple Kirk Cousins series, like a preseason game maybe where you try to go get a little lead.

But then that's weird too because you're like, if you're not leading, you've got to keep Kirk in. And the longer you go like that, the more you're worried about a completely unnecessary injury. It's going to be weird. Are you going? I still haven't decided if I'm going to Chicago for this game or not. That'll be a game time decision.

I already booked stuff before they announced Peterman. I think I might have changed my mind, but we'll see. The Peterman thing definitely threw a – kind of made me think twice about – because I wouldn't fly. I would just drive there like I usually do. How long of a drive is that? I always fly. It's six hours. That's not just drive there like I usually do. Oh, yeah. How long of a drive is that? I always fly. It's six hours.

That's not that bad. And I like driving. And I go to Chicago like three or four times a year to see all my Northwestern friends. So I may go for that reason more than just a – but apparently they're doing like in-person open locker room here on Monday. So then I probably wouldn't be there for that if I'm driving. Oh. So a lot goes into the decision. We'll see.

It does. Okay. Well, this turned out to be intense. We both think the Vikings are going to win this game. Yeah, I'm not even going to pick it. Will they win by more than eight points for the first time since freaking September? I'm going to say 28 to 7. Okay.

I think they'll just take care of business. If you can't, no matter who's playing, just win the game by at least 10. Just to prove you can. Just so I don't go insane with this team. All right. Next week, our preview will be of an actual playoff game. And that one is going to be intense. No future talk in that one. So thanks, everybody, for listening.

And hold on to your butts. Nathan Peterman. In Chicago. Nathan Peterman. Good day.