Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Let's talk about the Vikings' options with Kirk Cousins and the quarterback future

Episode Date: January 22, 2022

Matthew Coller gets together with Derrik Klassen of Bleacher Report and Football Outsiders to go over the options surrounding Kirk Cousins' future. Why hasn't Cousins been able to take the franchise to the next level? Is the QB NFL draft class really as weak as some analysts are saying? Are there other options with trades, including a Trey Lance idea, that Derrik would be interested in? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TD Direct Investing offers live support, so whether you're a newbie or a seasoned pro, you can make your investing steps count. And if you're like me and think a TFSA stands for Total Fund Savings Adventure, maybe reach out to TD Direct Investing. Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me, one of my favorite guests. He's got his dog barking in the background. So of course he is going to have to include many dog puns in this. As we break down the Vikings quarterback situation, Derek class in QB class, writing for football outsiders, bleacher report now as well, doing a big scouting project with them, Derek,

which I'm very excited to continue to read your work there. What is going on, man? Exciting times in sport. Yeah. I mean, a little bit different than that. You know, I think probably earlier in the season when I was last on, it was going to be like, well, we'll regroup when we have to make a decision on Kirk. And here we are, there's a decision to be made on Kirk. I know. I think I probably said like, that is the next time we'll talk is when we are discussing whether or not they are going to trade Kirk Cousins, what they could get for him, what the next option should be. There's so many places we could start, but I want to begin by asking you what it means in the NFL to have a middle of the pack quarterback. Okay. Because over the long history of the league there, and I know you're a tad younger than I, but back in my day, Derek, there were like four dudes

and those were the dudes. And then the rest of the teams might be able to win with defense. It's crazy. Like back in the day. So you had the Pittsburgh Steelers and they'd be running out who the hell cares at quarterback, but they would have the Steelers defense. So they'd have a shot. So they'd be right there at the end with John Elway and Jim Kelly and everybody else. No, that's not so much the case. And then right after the top quarterbacks, there was nothing. It was like just this barren wasteland of people who'd had no idea how to play quarterback

and all the teams with good quarterbacks would just beat up on them and that kind of thing. And so if you had a good defense, you could just murder those mediocre quarterbacks and so forth. Now the difference between the say seventh best quarterback in the league and the 20th best quarterback in the league isn't as much. And I feel like we've been stuck in this space with cousins the raiders have been this way to some extent the 49ers with jimmy garoppolo but i think he's a little bit different um with the way he fits in his offense but with with cousins where it's always this conversation of well what if they had done this or what if they had done that and i think that in my mind

the sample size has gotten large enough to say there isn't really an option where you can plug all holes and put them in the perfect situation. But tell me how you view that conversation with circumstances, quarterbacks, not the elite guys, if it's possible to win with those people. Not at this price point, I think is probably the way I would put it. And I think with like Kirk in particular, like if you're going to be a middle of the pack quarterback where like, he's clearly above whatever line we need to cross for like competency. But the problem is that if you're in that, you know, third tier quarterback, let's just say off the top of my head, like you probably need some degree of like volatility or some sort of like tangible upside that you can hit in theory.

It's like, you know, Eli Manning was not a great quarterback, but he had those super high moments that if things kind of turned out correctly, he could give you those games. I think the problem with a guy like Kirk is that because he doesn't have that and he's more of a guy who is like raising your floor and then making sure you're always at that floor i think the problem is kind of like you said the roster is going to be have to be perfect and it's always going to be oh we need this one next thing that can work when you're on like a rookie contract like the rams did with golf where you you have a lot more you know just capital to work with when you're paying the viking when the vikings are paying what paying Kirk cousins, you don't have as much room to do that. And you're going to

have like, at that point you would basically have to hit on like every single draft pick. And then also have like all of your free agents be bargains and then outplay what you're paying. Like, like kind of like you said, like it just takes too much perfect rockstar construction for a guy like Kirk to get to the point where he's going to be like a legitimate Superbowl contending quarterback for you. Okay. Can we talk about why? Because I feel like what you do best and what initially caught my eye about your writing is just picking out great details. Like you have a really good eye for the details of quarterbacks. So when it comes to Kirk, what is it in the details? Because how about this? This is a crazy thing. So I was, I was poking around just some numbers and everything else, as I want to do. And I ran into this. Patrick Mahomes in his career as a starting quarterback is 57 and 12, I think, or 57 and 15 as a the quarterback of the Vikings. Their quarterback rating difference

during that time is two points. Now, Patrick Mahomes is not two points better than, than Kirk cousins. He's a lot more than that. And people get upset about the QB wins thing, but I think the devil is in the details here. So what is it like when you say that he can't like bust through to another level? And I think we've seen that over seven years of him being a starter. Like, what is it that holds that back in your mind? I mean, so I think probably the easiest way to put it is that when I think Matt Bowen was actually doing like the all pro shows for for the athletic, he talked about the idea of that. Like, there are alignment assignment guys who like you tell them what to do. This is their job. They can do it to like a base level.

And that can get you like good production. Like if you're just constantly in the right spot that can get you good production. But at the end of the day, to be one of the best players in the NFL, you have to do stuff that is either off script or you're just like completely breaking what you're supposed to do. You're breaking the rules of, you know, your own structure or their structure, whatever. Kirk just doesn't have that. Like he just doesn't, he cannot really get outside the pocket and make plays.

He has like two or three scrambles a year that we all, you know, laugh at because he shouldn't be able to do it. And then he does. But I think generally like making plays outside the pocket is not something he's capable of. He's not a guy who's going to want to push the ball down the field unless it's like a very clear shot play. I don't think he's generally a guy who's going to want to push the ball down the field unless it's like a very clear shot play I don't think he's generally very good at that so that is like not giving you the kind of volatility that you need to like hit on enough explosive plays like look at Joe Burrow for

example Joe Burrow doesn't necessarily have like the best physical tools his arm is kind of whatever but because of the way that he pushes the ball down the field when he you know the play call is not necessary the play call is not like forcing him to do it the fact that he'll just kind of do it on his own and give those guys chances and is good at doing that that unlocks explosive plays for them whereas like Kirk I don't know he just doesn't have that um and then like his play under pressure is very dependent on like he can stand in the pocket and take a hit if he already knows where the ball is supposed to go. If he doesn't know where the ball is supposed to go, he's going to make the worst play imaginable. He's very much like a make things worse type of quarterback, which we always hit on like Matt Stafford for.

But Matt Stafford has peaks that make it worth suffering that Kirk Cousins just doesn't have any of those. Yeah. And I think that what that draws back to with Cousins is just athleticism and creativity. But I mean, so Tom Brady is not moving around super fast all the time. Like he's not taking off and running, but Tom Brady has an athleticism about him where his body can be facing one way and he twists and throws the ball to somebody open. And the flexibility in his core is nuts. And I actually, I was talking about Joe Burrow, another good example of this. He's not like, he doesn't have like four, four speed or a super strong arm, but like you're mentioning with Brady, he has this unbelievable core strength and flexibility where like he can

just kind of randomly snap his body and boom, he's in perfect throwing position. Kirk, you know, like you were saying, like he just doesn't have that level of flexibility to him. Things have to be by the book, textbook, perfect for him to make the right throw. And I just remember this, there was a play against Tampa Bay that maybe for newer listeners of the show would have not heard me talk about last year when it happened though, because the game was sort of on the line in Tampa last year and he got pressured up the middle and he needed to make a back foot throw to a wide open Justin Jefferson. And the ball just floated and sailed on him because he just doesn't have what you're talking about, where he could just torque his body and let it rip. I think that it's actually a testament to Kirk cousins that he has taken his physical tools

and he has worked so hard technique wise at throwing the football that when he can set his body and he can let it loose and he could throw an accurate deep ball, he could throw a laser beam if he has to. But it's like when anything breaks down or goes sideways, that goes away. And that's where I think even Jimmy Garoppolo or Matt Stafford, where they separate themselves from him. And I think that Stafford is just an okay quarterback who is in now a great situation. And that take has been a rollercoaster all year long of like, was I right about the Rams? Was I wrong about the Rams? Thanks, Cliff Kingsbury. I'm wrong for today. But you know, even Garoppolo where he does some wild stuff that you go, what? But at the same time, he flicks the ball so quickly that it comes out

of his hand. It doesn't matter kind of where he's at and he can make a play. And when you look at how they're performing on third down, how often they produce points on drives, things like that, like these little things. And this is the hard part about talking about cousins, because you're like, yeah, the difference between being an eight win quarterback and a 12 win quarterback is really just these little things. It's like 10%, like the Kansas city chiefs score on 10% more drives than the Vikings 10%. I mean, just one out of every 10, they're better than you. And yet that's the difference between one of the great quarterbacks in history and a guy who's sort

of rested in this area of being around 500. Sometimes he's had great defenses, same results. Sometimes he's had great offensive coordinators, same results. And that's where it's like, yeah, I think this thing now comes down to those details and not so much how we used to look at it, where it's like, oh, Peyton Manning has 120 rating and the next best guy has like a 89. So it's pretty clear that Manning is way better. I don't think that those traditional stats are really telling us a whole heck of a lot anymore. I think that that is especially true, like especially just with like the particular style of offense that they run and that Cousins has basically always run. And I know they've changed things up a little bit like this year. They've been like way more drop back from under

center, which I think is like pretty unique to their offense in the sense of like nobody else is really doing that. But I think generally a lot of the stuff they've done with play action and getting crossers and stuff open has been kind of a cheat code for him because I think it simplifies where Kirk Cousins needs to go with the ball and I don't think he's an idiot like he can operate from empty and do some of the drop back stuff it's why it works for them but he's not like on that next level tier with Brady or even like Dak Prescott. Like he's not up there with those guys. He's like, you know, if the bar for NFL level processing is a C, Kirk Cousins is like a B plus.

He's like pretty comfortably over the line in that sense, but he's not so much over it that he's like changing fundamentally what you can do and opening other things up. And I think that's kind of the problem that the Vikings continue to run into with him, where he can produce doing this stuff that is kind of a cheat code, but he doesn't make any of those cheat codes for himself, which to your point, even like with Stafford, whatever we might think of him,

he fundamentally like structurally unlocks things that a guy like Kirk Cousins or obviously Jared Goff can just not do, they just can't do it. And so I think that's kind of the issue with him. But I always sympathize with the fear of it being really bad because these folks had to watch Christian Ponder and they had to watch, you know, other quarterbacks, Tavaris Jackson, where it was just a struggle. And those, and when you watch quarterback play around the league, it's so funny because,

you know, like I said, 20 out of the 20 out of the 32 quarterbacks can play at any given week. They can have a great week and they can win games like Teddy, who is the broken version, won seven games this year. And he had moments where he was really good. So there's a lot of guys who can do that. that but then you get to well drew lock might be an example of this where you just go oh my gosh that guy is so far in over his head he has no idea what he's doing out there and i think that there rests this fear in all vikings fans heads that if you move on from cousins and you land the no idea what he's doing guy which may have been like zach wilson this year uh but if he stays that way sam darnold has just been the no idea what he's doing forever. First play against the Vikings. He's just like, tries to throw a pick for no reason. Like, okay. It's scary to people. I mean, I totally get that because what that means is you probably invest your time in that. And the guy just sucks the entire soul out of your franchise. And I think for some people it's like, well, like, couldn't you just like give them another guard? And, and the answer is no, because the difference between eight wins

and 13 wins is a lot. It's it's between you and Aaron Rogers. That's the gap that you need to get to. And I mentioned this the other day that the average Superbowl team wins 12 in the regular season. Well, you know, with Kirk, you're winning eight. And that's always been the case for his team. So you need a lot more than that. But I, I totally feel where people are coming from. And what if you draft Josh Rosen and the guy immediately can't play and then it just sets you back. But like, and I know that it is scary and obviously because I'm not really a fan of any NFL team anymore. Maybe I just like can't understand this feeling. But like, so what if the next guy sucks?

The guy that you have is not actually getting you closer to where you want to be. It might like feel like you're a little closer because you look at nine wins on paper. And, you know, maybe the Packers only have 11 or 12 in a given year. And you're like, we're right there. Like we could do it, but it's like, if the nucleus of your team is Kirk cousins, like, how are you going to get any closer? Because like you're saying like, oh, you could always be like, oh, well we just need a guard. Well, it's like, you've been doing this thing with Kirk cousins for three or four years.

You're paying him like $30 million. And then as these years accumulate, it's you know one year it was oh we just need a receiver okay well now we got him we had to use all this capital the next year oh we need a guard next year it's oh we need a tackle after a certain point you've used all this this capital that like to get to the next hill well you're having to give up something else because now your first round pick that you made four years ago well he's up for a contract now you can't extend him like like after a certain point there's you just can't get better than what the Vikings have done. Folks, we've got an even better offer to tell you about from SodaStick. If you use the promo code

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Go to SodaStick.com. That is S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com and use the code Purple Insider for 15% off. And I think too, that if you make a a mistake then just don't make the same mistake again so washington drafts duane haskins oh my god like just immediately a disaster but then they drafted chase young after that like guys no you can't go no no you can't go draft the defensive end you have to draft justin herbert even if they had drafted Tua, they're in the playoffs right now. And with some of the weapons they have, uh, incompetent coaching and Ron Rivera, they might've been a lot better than the dolphins. I don't know exactly. I didn't watch

a ton of Tua with the dolphins, but, um, that that's been kind of a messy situation, but if they draft Herbert, how good is Washington right now? So what Arizona did was you, uh-oh, draft the wrong quarterback. And then, all right, yeah, it is rough for a year. Sorry. It's been rough for how many years already? The last four years, I think, have been extremely rough. One wildcard round playoff game is not enough to sustain your fan base, as we saw from the misery at the end of this season and the coaches getting fired.

So if you have one year that goes sideways, well, that's tough, but you just draft the next guy because you're going to have a very high draft pick. And if it does work out, then you just have gold on your hands. And think about this. One thing that always goes through my head when I'm listening to broadcasts and watching other quarterbacks play that are really good. The best of the best, the ones who are going to win the Superbowl is how much can go wrong and they can still win. I mean, I'm watching Tristan Werf's go down. Ryan Jensen go down. Doesn't matter that Antonio Brown went complete, complete lunatic. One of the craziest things ever takes off his clothes and runs off the field. Doesn't matter

Tom Brady wins that game comes up destroys the Eagles in the playoff game who cares uh the other guys hurt Chris Godwin he's out doesn't matter I mean how about Joe Burrow like their offensive line is bad coach might be bad and he's probably bad we don't have to get too much into that but he's probably he's probably their offensive line is bad. I don't know. It doesn't matter. Won the game. Like, like even, I don't want to give Derek Carr too much credit, but like their coach got fired in the middle of the season. And he's just like, they found you can,

you're going to have to go through stuff. Every one of these teams has had difficult things happen to them. Patrick Mahomes, whole offensive line got hurt and he ended up in the Superbowl and was like, ah, see offensive line. That's the real answer like dude he's in the super bowl though that's kind of an important note the buffalo bills they have their um you know controversial slot receiver we'll call him that caused all sorts of problems for them they lost to the jaguars and scored like six points or no points or whatever. And Trey White got hurt for the year, all sorts of things.

And the offensive line is like better right now, but for a lot of the year, it was not very good. Like even guys that had previously performed for them, like Dion Dawkins was just not very good this year. And so like until kind of more recently. So like, yeah, to your point, and they were still winning games. And that's the whole thing is that if you can't find someone who can make up for these things you're just unlikely to ever avoid

pitfalls through an entire season it happened mostly in 2017 with case keenum once bradford got hurt is that the rest of the roster stayed healthy the schedule was favorable uh rogers got hurt everything else but i mean that's a once in a decade type of thing that all comes together. It's like, don't you want a shot every year because you have a quarterback who can make up for it, which kind of leads to the next question though, because, and you might disagree on this, but it's just been my theory that I don't care if analysts say this quarterback draft is not good. I just don't care.

Like it's not a reason not to draft one because I've heard it too many times. Justin Herbert, he's got all these problems. He's just looking up in Oregon. He's not clutch or he, you know, his accuracy is not good or whatever. And then he comes in, he's a star. Like, I don't know. Like I, we just have so much trouble predicting these people. I got done with takes on quarterbacks with Josh Rosen, Josh Allen.

Like Josh Allen looked like a disaster to me in college. Josh Rosen, it was magical. It was like in the pocket and it's accurate and it's anticipation and accuracy. And then one is horrible. And the other one is in the divisional round after being in the AFC championship last year. But you study these guys closer than I do. So am I being ridiculous by just saying, I don't care about that? A little bit just because I think what I would especially say is like the only

time really that these quarterbacks that like people don't that like super outperform their expectations are the guys who are super toolsy and so obviously like in this class you have like Malik Willis who won I think is even significantly worse than Josh Allen was coming out of college like Josh Allen was really raw coming out of college um Malik Willis is significantly lower than that I think um but like that's the only like super toolsy guy like a lot of these other guys are incomplete and don't really have tools that are like worth building on. Like Herbert might've been incomplete in certain ways, but he was incredibly toolsy and at least like past the level of competency that you could like see how it turned out. Well, not this well,

obviously nobody could have predicted this, but you could see how it would like turn into a good NFL starter with someone like Sam Howell. Like what tools are you building on his arm is not that good and he's like an okay athlete but he you're not going to like build the running game around him the way that you would lamar jackson or uh jalen hertz or something like that matt corral i don't really think his tools are very good like carson strong you know nate t always says, couldn't that guy couldn't run out of his own shadow. He probably can't. Like, I think the biggest issue with this class is that like, it's not only incomplete, but like these guys just don't even have tools either.

So I think that's kind of the biggest issue to me. So here's my thing about that, which I understand, but it's that Carson Wentz's team went to a Super Bowl because they were able to build it so strong and had home field advantage with him at quarterback. He's obviously not that good. Jared Goff's team went to a Superbowl. And it's like, if you draft this guy and Baker Mayfield's team is one game away from a Chad

Henney run away from maybe getting to the Superbowl, ironically, like of all the ironic things in the world, a Chad Henney run is what kept the Browns out of potentially going to the Super Bowl but even if you draft the guy that doesn't end up being the long-term guy as a intermediate if you are smart about it and you're not like this is our franchise guy no matter what live or die he's our long-term quarterback you can build around that so much easier with this crazy thing called money and cap space that if it's Sam Howell and his tools are just okay but he operates the offense and he's a little bit of a baller or he's a little bit of a play

which he does run and make plays I mean you you can do this to have at least a shot or two at it at building this great roster. Whereas with the expensive quarterback with a limited ceiling, your chances are much worse. So I think that there's opportunities to pump up someone who maybe is not Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, but could be the quarterback of a team that becomes very successful still. I mean, I think it's entirely possible that a team could like kind of go in immediately thinking that they're going to just be this like three, four window year window team. I don't really know how many teams have actually ever really tried to operate like that. I think it's more of like you realize it by the end of year one or year two and then you commit to it.

Something like that. I don't think you can really go in uh i think that's the biggest issue is that if job security in the nfl in general is all about having some degree of certainty in things i think it's very hard to like start this like three four year plan immediately without knowing at all what the quarterback is going to be like what he's going to turn into. I think that's just too, I think you're just, it's could go very wrong. Cause I think if you invest that much and then it turns out the guy sucks, you have failed very quickly, which is kind of good in the sense that you can turn around and get a new quarterback. But like at that point, then you're investing in another new quarterback. And now your roster is like the direction of the roster is kind of like too far ahead of where your quarterback is like

i think it can just kind of put you in a weird situation you owe a dog pun by the way you're i will see if i can get there you're down one dog pun um now so well you've been scratching my itch of uh this conversation with with with uh these these rookie quarterbacks. And I knew that you wouldn't see this way exactly. I tend to call it draft nihilism of like, none of us really know, so just draft a guy. Just pick the one you like and go for it and don't apologize to anyone and solve the problem later if it turns out to be a fail

because the routes are only the limited routes you can take. Like there isn't a select box draft, Andrew Luck. And after seeing Andrew Luck on TV, that guy's not coming back to play for the Vikings. I always had it in my head. Like maybe like the Vikings are the team. If anyone's doing this, it's Andrew Luck shows up as a Viking, but that's clearly not happening because he weighs 20 pounds less than me

right now. But so the routes are stick with Kirk, pay him even more money, try the Sam Howell or Kenny Pickett or whoever route or something else. In your mind, is there a something else? I mean, the only what's funny about, I think, the Viking situation is that the only other something else is to obviously trade for one of these other guys who might be kind of on the market. One air. OK, Aaron Argers is probably off the market entirely. But even if he was, he obviously there's no way he would end up in Minnesota. So that's like completely off the table.

The only other guy really, I think is going to be Derek Carr. But I think the way that Cousins gets talked about and the way that Carr gets talked about, I think there's no way that the Vikings want to do that again. I don't think, I think Carr is better in that. Like, it's not really a one for one in terms of the types of quarterbacks that they are. But I think the way that they get talked about, there's no way that the Vikings would make that move. So I do think to your point, it's kind of they're like stuck with sticking with Kirk or just taking a gamble on one of these first round guys.

I don't think it's necessarily wrong to just take a swing on the quarterback for the sake of taking a swing on the quarterback. But like, I do think that if you're going to do that, you have to understand that these guys are a lower bet than they would have been if you took a guy last year. Like any one of these guys is going to be a worse bet than even like Mac Jones.

I thought Mac Jones was like basically like a top 50 ish type of prospect. And I don't know if anyone in this class is better than that. You still might get a guy who's better than that, but I don't think like the percentage that you're betting on is any better than what Mac Jones was. The, the Mac Jones thing is just probably going to live with us forever. I mean, in terms of a discussion, because, you know, like the other day it's, uh, I'm

getting the tweets of, Oh yeah. How you feel about your Mac Jones take now? Like, I don't know. I feel like if next year they were going into the season with Mac Jones, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Delvin cook, two tackles that are good. Like they'd be feeling pretty good in a rookie quarterback contract, but there is that part of it of, and I get it where if you're going to be in the division and you've got two, and you have Mac Jones and the other team has Josh Allen, that is a tough one to say,

okay, we're going to beat that team. Although you have to stop them on more than like zero of their drives, I think for the quarterback to win, just saying good start. I would think zero stops. I don't know. There's too many football games where a team won when they got zero stops on the other team. But I think that there, I mean, that that's the fair part of the discussion,

but the only other thing that gets brought up sometimes is like, Hey, should the Vikings play this out? Which is the other route, play it out with Kirk and then draft someone the next time. The issue there for me is you're resigning yourself to a fate of eight, nine next year, maybe nine and eight. Same kind of deal because they won't have any cap space. They're minus ten million dollars right now. You will not have any cap space to sign anyone and create a better roster. So then you'd be totally hoping and praying that new coach X finds some magical beast within Kirk cousins that he unleashes on the universe. And that just seems unlikely.

That's why I think you take one now. And if the guy stinks and you have him for a year, you just move on. Or if you're seeing the development. And I think that like, I know you're going to tell me that these guys are way better prospects, but like Deshaun Watson had major questions. Patrick Mahomes had major questions. Mac Jones had major questions. Like there's never, you can never escape this thing because of draft season and the cottage industry that's become a bunch of people copying Dane Brugler's work and tweeting it out that we get to the point where everybody thinks that they like micro pick apart every

single part of these quarterbacks. And by the end, you're just like terrified in a ball in the corner saying never draft anyone. Like, it's just like, you, I don't see any better routes. The only concern is kind of what you laid out is they tweet the picture of the guy and then they talk about him and then they push him up. And this is our guy like the Simba being held up at the beginning of Lion King. That's where it becomes tough is then if the guy has some success, then fans will gravitate to him like Baker Mayfield and then they'll want him forever. And then it's hard for ownership to want to trade. That's the one thing that when we're playing Madden with these rosters and quarterbacks, that I think we have a little tough time understanding that there's an owner who, if he likes that quarterback, he's going to say, pay him no matter what. So it's a lot easier to

say draft and dump than it is to actually apply that. Exactly. And the thing is too, like, it's great to look at what the Cardinals did and be like, oh, well they, they just immediately knew this guy sucked and they just moved on and drafted another one. Quarterbacks aren't usually like that degree of bad. It's more likely that you end up in like the Trubisky situation where

he's not like the worst, but you probably don't think he's good enough, but he's shown a couple of moments where, ah, he might be like, I think it's a lot more likely you end up in that state. Um, or like kind of what, what Tua is with, with the dolphins were like, kind of to your point, the owner attaches himself enough and then you're just kind of screwed. And it's unlikely. I think that they will be bad enough that any owner could just immediately be like, oh, we're done here. Like Rosen was, obviously. But I just don't think you end up with that guy most of the time.

And so you just end up in a really weird, sicky situation. Right. You end up floating around in the middle, which is where you are anyway. But all of this, to me, it just feels a little too hopeless based on the past of the critiques of quarterbacks. Like, I know that this is what it sounds like. And if you draft Dwayne Haskins, it's a huge problem for you. But just because the draft analysts are saying this, just because it might look bad in college or not that great in college doesn't necessarily have to mean it can't be good. Especially now, let's talk about this. You're giving the guy, Justin Jefferson. And when we talk about Kirk cousins numbers and all those things, it just can't be ignored that

at every point in his career, he's had an elite wide receiver and an elite support. And a second pretty good one. Yes. Whether it was Pierre Garcon is the number two or Adam Thielen is the number two. It's always been the case. And this is where I look at the golf Rams, how they ran their system, how they got themselves to a super bowl. Like remember where they were when they drafted them. Remember how ugly the roster was when they picked them and look at how mediocre he is. I think he's an NFL starting quarterback, but only of the like Fitzpatrick and Teddy Bridgewater and sort of category sense that there have to be 32. Right. Well, in the sense that like if, if you got all the stuff it's possible, it's only that the difference is $30 million,

making it a lot easier to create all the stuff and then starting someone out with Justin Jefferson. And there's something to be said, I think from confidence of a young player that when I watched Zach Wilson, I think, oh, that poor guy. I mean, you just got nothing. There's just nothing there. And you didn't start out with a system that worked for you and receivers that worked for you and everything else. Whereas Mac Jones gets to drop into a very stable franchise with good players to throw the ball to and an offensive coordinator who's building it smartly for him. I think that's what you can do with a quarterback here to take a non-elite prospect and have a lot of success with them. Yeah. I mean, I think it's possible. It's just, I don't know. I don't, I do not like intentionally taking a quarterback where like, it feels like he doesn't have the upside. Like, you know what I mean?

So like, there's probably a world where Sam Howell could do something like what Jared Goff gave the Rams. Maybe not like one-to-one play style, but like could give you that quality of play or, or Carson Wentz or whatever. like I don't know I think you have to swing on a guy who can give you enough when all that you know cushion that you have as a a rookie quarterback you know that kind of contract you have to have something more I think and like in this class in particular I just don't see who that's supposed to be like I said like Mal like Malik Willis could be, but he's a decade away, I think, from being there.

So I don't know. I wouldn't, again, I wouldn't blame the Vikings for doing it because kind of to your point, if you think you're in this middle ground anyway, what does it really matter if you're like a slight step below in the same middle ground? Like, what does it really matter? I just think that if they're going to do that, I think you try to make a play for somebody who can potentially be better long-term rather than trying to get like, who could be the best guy in this four-year window? I don't, I don't really know if I subscribe to that plan. You want to make up some trades?

We can try. I think we should make up some trades because, okay. So if that's not necessarily the option that you like is just trading Kirk away, get a draft pick and draft somebody else. How about this for a trade? This is a little galaxy brain here, but let's say the 49ers go to the Superbowl and win. They can't move on from Jimmy G right at that point, you can't win the Superbowl and then say, this guy's not good enough to win the Super Bowl when he will have been to two of them uh that you may end up flackoing yourself but you still have you have to stick with them would you trade if you were the Vikings a first round draft pick and change for Trey Lance easy 100 you like I mean he's he's I one I love Trey Lance coming out of college I thought to me he was the third best quarterback in that class behind Lawrence and Fields he was going to

take a little bit of time to like fully clean out I think his upper body mechanics but like just athletically he's as good as it gets I mean as a runner he's incredible his arm strength is phenomenal and I thought he actually did a really good job at North Dakota State of like understanding a very like pro offense. They did a lot of legitimate drop back stuff and he was able to work to the backside and he knew what he was doing. It was kind of just a matter of like he's clearly 19 years old and doesn't have enough reps. So the execution wasn't always quite there. But to me, I was like, well, he has all the baseline stuff. Let's just hope he gets more reps. So I would trade a first and change for Trey Lance, I think pretty easily, especially not only because yeah, I liked him coming out of college. I like him a lot better than I'm going

to like any of the guys that I find in this class. So I would be willing to pay a little bit of a premium to get him over whoever I would be stuck with in this class. Let me swing this one around a different way. Let's say they lose in the next round. Jimmy throws four interceptions and gets sacked 16 times. And they say, well, that's the reason. It's all your fault, James Garoppolo. And so now we're going to work out a three-way trade with the Vikings. I'm not going to think of all the details of this,

but it ends up with Kirk somewhere else other than San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo as a Viking. Is that a good trade? I mean, if they don't give up a first, no, you know what? No, I'm not doing this to myself. I'm not convincing myself of this. Jimmy Garoppolo, they might be, he might be different than Kirk Cousins in some ways. But I think like quality wise, it's not any different. You're not getting anything different. So I think especially, yeah, because you're going to have to, I don't know if his contract is as hefty as Kirk Cousins is, but like you're still paying him a lot more than you would be paying a rookie quarterback, which I think then it's like you're not really saving

that much money at that point. So I don't think I can do that. Kirk for Baker Mayfield. I'm to the point where I don't think Baker has it. But what I would say is that because he's young enough and has not recently produced enough that you're not going to have to pay him like $40 million, I don't think. I think that at least kind of makes more sense than trying to go for Jimmy Garoppolo. I think you could at least swing on the upside of what Baker Mayfield could be, what he showed at one point. Whereas with Jimmy, we know the book at this point and it's not really any different than what the Vikings have with Cousins. it's just that Shanahan is like way better at getting the most out of it there's also a kind of a case for he's going to be on his fifth year option which I think is 18 million and so you would

make some space for yourself maybe you have to throw in some draft pick I don't I don't even know who thinks they get the better side of that deal to be honest I mean like with with the golf for Stafford it was very clear that you, the Rams thought they were getting the far better player. And then there was the cap situation. So I don't even know how the change would work out for that. But if you bring in Baker and he's healthy and he plays really, really well, you've, you maybe have got something there, but then if he doesn't and he's just, okay, you just move on. You just like, don't sign him past that and right go forth with your life or you can even franchise tag him and have him for another year and play the same game the next year draft somebody develop somebody i think that that's

and build your team up a little more with that cap space i think that's like more viable for a similar type of player i i think i agree i also would, I think it's pretty clear just that like Baker Mayfield's his time in Cleveland, I think has just run out. And I think it would be nice for him to get a fresh start whether or not that actually gets him back to where he was at one point. I don't know, but I think, I don't know. I think with Baker compared to some of the other options here, the upside is a little bit nicer.

And kind of like you were saying, you're not quite as stuck contract wise. So I think it's kind of the best of both worlds in that in that scenario. Still not ideal. Obviously, you don't want to be the team trading for Baker Mayfield. But I think it's a little bit better than some of these other options. Right. That's not beating Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, but that is giving you somebody who might have more upside or who might come here and do better than they didner Minshew or Davis Mills or literally anyone else like the field. Kirk Cousins for the field other than people we mentioned. And the Watson thing is just too tricky to talk about player for player. That's super easy.

But, you know, everything else. But the field, not including Deshaun Watts. Anybody else that you think would be a good idea? I feel like the only other quarterback that is potentially on the market that could be an upgrade for the Vikings is Derek Carr. But I just don't see how the Vikings end up doing that. I mean, like I said, just the way that Derek Carr has talked about, the way that Cousins has talked about, it feels too similar.

That's probably the only way that they can upgrade. And I don't think that's going to happen. I don't even know if the Raiders would want to do that. So I don't know. I think with some of the other guys you mentioned, Tua, absolutely not. I don't think he's any good. Davis Mills is a lot better than I thought he was going to be, but I still am struggling to see like what the upside there is supposed to

be, especially like compared to Kirk cousins. Cause like physically these guys are not very different. So like what is Mills ever supposed to be better other than maybe a cheaper version? I don't know. Daniel Jones would probably benefit from a new change of scenery, but like, I don't think he's good enough either. So I don't know if I'm excited about any of the other options here.

This whole show has been you not believing the Vikings are going to find a good quarterback, which is not what anybody wanted, Derek. Well, I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I think somebody had to be. I'm going to, I mean, I trust your analysis and I believe you when it comes to analyzing the quarterbacks in the draft. I just think that it still works for some franchises, even if the guy wasn't perfect, including the 49ers, that Jimmy Garoppolo is far from perfect. And yet they're going into every season thinking they can compete for a Super Bowl. There's also a landscape thing of the NFC where you go, the great guys are kind of over in the other conference. And so what can you do in this section of time?

You know, can you find somebody or can you find someone who's just good enough for now to get you to where some of these other teams have gotten? So it is a very tricky situation. It's the number one thing on everybody's mind when they hire a new GM is who's going to be the coach, who's going to be the quarterback. Are they going to stick with Kirk? Are they not? So I love getting together with you. And at the end, I just want you to say that you said Kellen Mond wasn't going to be good. You could just say that. I mean, he wasn't, I will say, I thought he had a better chance than everybody after the top five, but the gap between Mac Jones and everyone else in that class who boy not good the league knows what it's doing is all i would say when it comes to this they

don't get them all right but they do know what they're doing for who the first round talents are so um derrick i'm looking forward especially in draft season everything else what you're doing with bleacher report the scouting project doing n Nate Tice and Brandon Thorne, other people who have come on the show. So that's very exciting for you. Of course, you do your work at Football Outsiders as well. And we will talk again, sir. I mean, I'm sure. Maybe when the decision has been made.

I'm sure. That's what I mean. I'm sure after the decision is made, then I will need more details on every one of these quarterbacks. But great stuff. Always super fun to get together with you, man. We'll do it again soon. Absolutely.

I love being on. So thank you.