Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Mike Renner doesn't think I'm wrong about Drake Maye

Episode Date: April 19, 2024

Matthew Coller is joined by NFL draft analyst Mike Renner to preview next week's NFL Draft and discuss the Vikings' QB options. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider and back on the show, my favorite draft analyst, Mike Renner. Man, it has been quite a time over here, Mike. You know, you're looking at the whole landscape of the league and just vibing on the draft and waiting to see how it all plays out. But it's intense over here as we are in the final days before the Minnesota Vikings draft their future franchise quarterback. Can you feel the tension through our stream yard call here? Oh, I felt it as soon as I logged on. I saw you crack a little diet soda there just out of necessity. You couldn't just sit there and not have a little something to age you and ease the stress. Oh yeah. And diet. Dr. Pepper definitely does that. I saw Wade Phillips tweet out a 36 pack of diet.

Dr. Pepper, which apparently is only sold at Costco. I'm going to have to get an account to go there and buy a 36 pack just for draft night alone. So yeah, it's been a really interesting time, man.

I mean, you and I have talked so many drafts through the years, but have never had a chance to talk about quarterbacks seriously for the Minnesota Vikings. So I have a game I want to play with you, but I also just want to ask you broadly about this quarterback class. It is my impression that almost any one of the quarterbacks, the Vikings end up with here is going to be a good result for them because of what they can do for that quarterback. And because we're not talking ourselves into Sam Howell here or Kenny Pickett. These are accomplished quarterbacks, record setters, guys who competed for Heisman's

generational talents. Like there's good quarterbacks all over this board. That is my feeling. But maybe I'm just talking myself into that because it's an exciting time for the vikings to be drafting a quarterback so am i wrong about that you're not wrong there's you know compared to like i said that sam howell class is 2022 there is a path that i see far more for even the guys i don't like in this class and you know i'm not massive fan of jj mccarthy i've let that know, I'm not a massive fan of J.J. McCarthy.

I'd let that be known. I'm not, like, super high and even like a Michael Penix. But, like, I think he could start in the NFL. And he's closer to starting than anyone was in that year's class, that 2022 class. So, yeah, it's unique in that regard. But, obviously, it's the NFL draft. And it's quarterback position especially.

There's no sure things, not even close. I, of course, you know, have been over that through the years from time to time of going back through all of NFL history and laughing at quarterbacks in the seventies being drafted wrong and quarterbacks in the 2020s being drafted wrong.

So that will always be the case. And you're, I'm sure speaking to an extremely nervous fan base here as people have planted flags of what they do or don't want to see. When I went over Peter Schrager's mock the other day, and he had Bo Nix going to the Vikings, the comments were angry, but the best I could say is we're going to have to just wait to see how it plays out, which is why I'm going to be fine with whoever they pick, but that's not the game we're going to play. The game we're going to play. I actually already went there is, am I wrong? So you're telling me that I'm not wrong, that the draft class is good overall.

And even your least favorite prospect could be a starter. Am I wrong to be the most afraid you hinted at this of JJ McCarthy in a big trade-up. That is the one outcome that I think is both likely and the most scary from my perspective for the Vikings. You're not wrong whatsoever. We've never seen him handle the kind of workload that Kirk Cousins was last year in terms of drop back passing offense. And I will say this, as much as he didn't pass a ton, that Kirk Cousins was last year in terms of drop back passing offense.

And I will say this, as much as he didn't pass a ton, there's very little fat on his tape in terms of gimmicky RPOs, pop passes, screens. Every passing attempt had some semblance of NFL translatability for the most part on his Michigan tape. So you have that at least in his back pocket, but there's, you know, there was so few times where he had to go get it done and then got it done over the course of his career, had to bring them back from a hole just himself. And I worry about two big things with him besides, besides even that, like two big things, like an actual on the football field.

One is that the man only throws lasers. The touch that he like far and away compared to anyone else in this class, he struggles with touch throws. It doesn't even like attempt touch those. And two, he missed more DBS than anyone else. Like just like missed in the course of this progression and threw it into guys' chests on a per dropback basis than any of these other quarterbacks. And so a lot of it's like learning is going to happen right away.

And so while you said it's like, it's the best situation probably of any of these situations that you can drop one of these rookie quarterbacks into, that doesn't mean that anyone can succeed in the Minnesota Vikings offense, right? And we obviously saw that last year. So there's there's a lot to be worried about in that regard. But but his personality is why people are sold on him as they are. And obviously, I haven't gotten to spend time with them. I don't get to see him on a whiteboard. I don't get to know those things about how he can be as a leader for your franchise. But that's why, you know, that's's, if you're feel like you're taking

crazy pills about JJ McCarthy thing, that's why. Well, and so something that Kevin O'Connell talked about extensively in his press conference this week is how much they are focused on fit. And you can certainly look at the fit between the two people at Kevin O'Connell, a complete quarterback nut and JJ McCarthy football guy, and how McCarthy's personality, his obsession with the game and all that stuff kind of reminds you a little bit of Kirk Cousins and his mentality. And we saw Cousins and O'Connell build this relationship over two years. That relationship probably supersedes any particular talent. Throwing to the right places with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison probably supersedes any particular talent throwing to the right places with Justin

Jefferson and Jordan Addison probably supersedes any particular talent so maybe you're talking about taking some of Kirk Cousins mentality putting it to a more physically skilled but also flawed body but that is a point that almost never gets brought up about McCarthy is that using the data you're formerly of PFF more turnover worthy plays than a lot of these other quarterbacks. Like Bo Nix did not turn the ball over very often, even as crazy as Michael panics was throwing the ball down the field. Didn't have a lot of turnover worthy plays. And we think of Drake may as being this out of control psychopath out there, turnover worthy play rate was lower, uh, or just as good. And so so i i look at it like that part of it how much can you

learn how much can you project is really what it would have to come down to and would i project it with the 11th pick sure would i project it with 11 23 and the next first round pick that's where it gets a little more dicey for me 100 and that's why i, yeah, I'd take him if I'm back into the first round and I'm desperately quarterback needy. I have my quarterbacks retiring or whatever it is at that point in the draft. Yeah, I would take that chance on the guy, but there's levels to the investment because you take him with all that you're going to give up. That's it. If you're that's your tenure. You're you're out the building

because you're the next four or five years. The next four years of the franchise are going to be tough if that guy's not the guy or even like that guy could like just like crash and burn potential in terms of like, could he not handle it?

Could it be like look awful right out the gate? I would worry about that with him more so than any of those other top three guys that are getting rumored in that point of the draft. Okay, I've got lots more am I wrongs, but do you have any am I wrongs for me? You want to throw one at me? Am I wrong that the Packers are the class of the NFC North going forward? There it is. There it is.

Just a reminder of Mike Renner's roots here. Are you wrong about the Packers? You and no. Yes and no. Because one thing that's hard to figure out is how good the next defensive coordinator is going to be. Because I know how bad the last defensive coordinator was. And that was something that you could always sort of count on is that the Packers are going to be limited to some extent with their talent. If they take a big step forward on the defensive side, one thing that I got really sold on was the relationship between Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur, because of course, Vikings fans are in denial. I get emails about it. I get YouTube comments about it all the time. Stop saying Jordan Love's

going to be great. And it's not just about Jordan Love. It's also about the whole landscape. I mean, you think that you have an advantage with Kevin O'Connell. That's the advantage they have too with Matt LaFleur. And then when you're talking about their receiving core, there's not a Devante Adams there now. So we go, well, you know, they don't have a superstar, but they have maybe three, four guys who can really play pretty well in that system. I think that that's probably right, but I don't see a reason why Detroit would fall off. And within two years, it's very possible that Chicago is what the Buffalo bills became over the last four or five years with Josh Allen. So I'm going to say, I'm going to say you're wrong ish, because I don't see why Detroit would get so much worse

when they're bringing everything back, including a quarterback who's been proven over a number of years. But also, if you're making that argument, I can't say, oh, man, you're crazy. You're out of your mind. Because if Jordan Love does that for a full season, it's a huge problem for everybody. Yeah, I will say the NFC North is, depending on obviously who the Vikings pick quarterback, to get Drake May, it was going to be a dogfight. That's a vision. I would almost rather be anyone but Detroit than at that point, because I think the quarterbacks outside of Jerry Goff are going to be better than, you know, outside of Detroit. So that's kind of a three

years versus one year. If you're just talking about next year, that's a neck and neck race between the Packers and the lions. If you're talking about three years, I would probably put Chicago first and then neck and neck with the Vikings and Packers, depending on how it goes. But this is kind of an, am I wrong thing? Am I wrong that the Vikings need to go over the top for Drake may because with an okay physically skilled quarterback or even just above average you're probably not getting there with the opponents that you're going to have to face you probably need someone who's a little more on the freakish side yeah I do not think you're wrong about that he he's not only like supremely physically talented

but I think the fit for that offense is perfect in that he hits zone windows better than anyone else. He knows where to place the football so that it's getting between two guys' leverage and not getting his wide receiver killed. He's not throwing routes how they're drawn up on paper, where since he's running the corner, I've got to put him out to the corner. He'll stop a guy in his tracks and put it back on his back shoulder, which was like Kirk Cousins was the master of that. That's how he operated that offense to such a high degree. And you see Drake may do that. And just like you said, limit turnover where the plays while still being insanely aggressive with the football. He was a downfield passer, averaged up the target well over 10 yards

this past year, I believe, and not actually putting the ball in harm's way so so he takes good chances with that and as much as his accuracy is getting holes poked in it and I do think it's an issue it's kind of it's something that I think can improve as his footwork improves like it's to me is more often than not an issue of him drifting in pockets and not being from a set base. That's something that you can drill. You can get better at, and you're never going to look like, I don't think you'll ever look like Tom Brady from a footwork perspective in

terms of how consistent his feet are, but he can at least get to a point where it's not hampering his accuracy. And so, yeah, I've, I don't get the, anyone else, but Drake may a QB too, at this point, I just, I do not get anyone else but Drake May at QB2 at this point. I do not see it with any of these guys, and I think it's a pretty big gap.

And so if the Vikings got Drake May on draft day, I will not be happy. I will be upset. I will be upset. So where does Jaden Daniels fit into this for you? Because I was watching back Jadenden daniels's best game he ever played against florida but you know i did think that well there are reasons to pick apart the arm strength which does worry you at times that the ball doesn't have that extra juice behind it like it does when jj mccarthy steps in and throws the fastball or when Drake may just does anything. But I mean, we are talking about somebody so explosive that he, I think, can run away

from NFL players, which is very, very rare. The only person I've ever seen move like this at that type of speed is Michael Vick, where everybody else looks like they're in slow motion in college. And I just, I don't know if I love the fit for a rhythm and timing offense, but also this is, this would be your job. If you're Kevin O'Connell to make this work with Jaden Daniels. And also it's not like you pass the ball badly. The guy threw for 40 touchdowns and averaged over 10 yards and attempt. I mean, a lot of people have had good receivers and not put up numbers like that. So I don't think it would be a bad thing for Jaden Daniels to become a Viking.

The question is, is it a good enough fit to trade everything for? That's the big debate for all of these guys is what's really the price. It becomes a completely different offense if you draft Jaden Daniels. And even schematically, you're doing vastly different things. You're not working the middle of the field nearly as much as they did last year. You're going pure vertical way more because that's where he's like really shines is deep posts go balls on the outsides ball placement on those and it looks like i don't think the comp is great to russell wilson but that's what the offense when russell wilson's has best that's the

routes that jayden daniels wants to target too and then oh by the way he runs like a mid four threes you know like over the way you he runs like a mid-4-3s. You know, like, oh, by the way, he can absolutely fly. So there's that aspect that you would just have to add. And truthfully, he never – he added some with Josh Dabbs at the middle of the season last year and added some quarterback running to the mix. But it wasn't – it was midseason, so he'd obviously had a full-off season to prepare. But it would have to really incorporate that to really draw more guys into the

box to then be able to attack deep. So it's, it's just different. You know, when you're an offensive mind, you're an offensive mind. You don't limit yourself to my offense, but again, if it's, it's so different that you're going like everyone else is going to have to change their strengths and weaknesses. And I'm not sure. and you've drafted exactly for kind of what this offense looks like those guys are perfect for it right now so it's it would be probably too different to my opinion mortgage the farm i've been on such a journey with jayden daniels that early on i thought oh this is perfect i i'm liking this because i mean i've always been a fan of running quarterbacks i think that it adds dynamics that are hard to put on paper and you you mentioned the running game, Lamar Jackson's

running game, no matter who is in the backfield is awesome. And I have to think that a big part of that is him the same with Russell Wilson. They could kind of throw anybody back there and they would average four and a half yards of carry because there is so much attention paid to that guy. And when you watch him throw the football, I think he is pretty accurate with the ball and he can make plays while he's on the move. I don't think it's just a scramble or throw. I think he can do both and make plays out of structure. But when he does scramble, it's something you've only seen a handful of times in all of NFL history. And even with Jalen Hurts, who has his limitations as a passer, that guy could take a team to the Superbowl in part because the extra

700 to a thousand running yards means so much to your offense. But I tend to think, I guess, am I wrong to think that Washington's going to pick him or is that just what everyone's making the connection you're not buying? I gonna have to say i have no clue on this one i i truly do not have a clue on what washington's gonna do at number two because there are people who maybe i don't say i like love their quarterback evaluations but like who are going to bat for jayden daniels as if he is the next guy like as if he should be the number one pick in this like there are people who former former NFL quarterbacks, who are really doing it. So when that's the case, when it's that mixed, in my eyes, I don't see it as that close at

all. But when it's that mixed, it only takes one team. I never thought Trayvon Walker was going number one to the Jags until that week of the draft when we still hadn't come out that it was going to be a Hutchinson. So all it takes is one, but I think it would, I'm not going to say it's that level of a mistake that we've kind of seen with that pick, but it's just, I don't think it's the right, I think it's Drake made pretty clearly at number two.

It should be. You know, that's kind of one of those things where we just want different. So we try to work our way into that because it's more interesting than to just say, well, number one and two are pretty sad. If Washington goes with Daniels, part of it for me of putting together the puzzle pieces would be who they brought in as their backup quarterbacks running quarterback? The fact that they moved on from Sam Howell. I don't know what that means to Drake May, but they were supposed to be pretty good buddies. So I don't, I don't know if there's something there I'm doing my best. I'm not a draft insider.

This is the best I can do is just try to put it together. What do you got for me? What do you want me to tell you if you're wrong? Ooh, am I wrong to think there's a chance that the Vikings may get outbid and end up empty handed in this quarterback class. And it may be like not empty handed, but like have to draft one later than trading up to that top three,

top four. So we're, we're talking outside the top four. Are you wrong? They don't make, they get outbid for that move up to get one of those guys or, you know, the pay Pat say they want to stand Pat Arizona's like, I'm not going to trade.

And then someone else moves up with the chargers, gives them a better deal. And that's that they're out of the QB or they're out of those top four that we've been talking about. Arizona wants to stand on their perch because they're Cardinal. You get it. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You are not wrong. Not at all wrong. Because the way that they've talked about this thing, even to the most recent press conference, is this is as much a do-we-love-you decision about the quarterbacks

as it is an economics decision. And I have to put my hand over my mouth in these press conferences when they're like, well, you know, there's other teams too. Like, you could have been ahead of them if you had not won some josh dobbs games but you know the past is the past the position they're in even with the 23rd pick does not guarantee you a thing there's another team the new york giants that may want to draft a quarterback that can put together at least by every draft chart something just as valuable as the vik Vikings using number 23 and number 11. And I still am very hesitant on that idea of throwing in an extra first. If they did it, I would say, all right,

well, that means Kevin O'Connell's all in. So I guess I'm all in and we'll give it an A and we'll see how it all works out, but it would just be a lot and it would be risky to me. They might decide it's not worth that extra first round pick to move up to try to get jj mccarthy we also don't know how kevin o'connell views pennix and bo nicks because last year everybody and their brother thought that kevin o'connell was going to love will levis it was exactly the opposite and they proved it with their draft pick where when that he was on the board and they said nope we are not doing that we're going with a wide receiver and waiting till next year's class. I mean, Pennix and Bo Nix were two guys that were thought of coming into this year as potential high draft picks.

So when they talk about, Oh yeah, this decision is two years in the making. Well, does that point you toward Pennix? Does it point you toward Nix? They spent a lot of time with Michael Pennix, who, I mean, you talk about somebody who could stand back there and just sling it all over the yard. How about this? Am I wrong to say, I don't think that's a bad outcome if they end up with Penix or Knicks, though I know that Vikings fans, a lot of them will be very hesitant on this. I don't think it's a bad outcome because you see with what's going on in San Francisco that

you just need any semblance of quarterback play when you have talent and when it's cheap. And if it's just Stan Pat at pick 11, or it's at pick 23 that you're picking one of those guys, they will be cheap. It decreases pretty starkly from if they're trading up to three, how much they're going to have to pay that guy versus Stan and Pat at 11, how much they're going to have to pay that guy. That just allows you to build so much more around them. So I don't think it's a bad outcome at all because I think those guys are, via their experience, more NFL ready than like a J.J. McCarthy.

You know, you've been telling me those guys are starting as rookies and maybe they're not winning a ton of games, but with the Vikings, it would be a great situation for them to do so. I think they could put up better numbers than a J.J. McCarthy if he ends up in, say, New York with the Giants. I think that's not out of the question whatsoever.

So I don't think it's a bad outcome at all. I'm fairly high on those guys. I have Penix and McCarthy in a similar tier on my board, and I actually have Knicks ahead of Jaden Daniels. I think he's a guy who can be a quality starter in the NFL, maybe never reached tier one or tier two as a starter, but a guy who, you know, has a pretty big chip on his shoulder after everything that's gone down in Auburn, after the way he gets talked about in the general public about his prospect profile. So

I don't think that's a bad outcome whatsoever. Folks, we all have smartphones and we know that they are pretty amazing, but they can also be amazingly distracting, especially when we're around other people. So U.S. Cellular wants us to reset our relationship with our phones by putting down our phones for five. That's right. A company that sells phones wants us to put down our phones and see what we can find. Learn more at uscellular.com slash built for us. That's uscellular.com slash built for us. This is so interesting to me because you can compare it to the inkblot test with quarterbacks all the time with people.

You hold up a quarterback and you go, what do you see here? Because so I was watching Bo Nix back because sometimes we talk about them so much and I go, I need, I need a refresh. I need to go just watch a game. So I just YouTube Bo Nix. Let me just watch a game. And I was watching him against Oregon state who I thought was a pretty decent defense. All right, let's see him.

You know, I think it was in Corvallis. It's always tough to go to Corvallis. So let's see how he performed in that game. And yes, there were a lot of screen passes and I fast forwarded past the screen passes, but you talk about touch on the football. You talk about making some plays out of structure. He had one that yes, in the NFL, maybe it would be picked off where he threw across his body and found a guy downfield, but keeping your eyes up, looking to make a play. And every time I go back and watch a guy, I go, oh yeah, you know, I could see that. I could see that. And yet with Bo Nix, people have sort of fallen off the train completely with him as if he shouldn't even be talked about in this discussion. What happened from point A to point B, aside from 45

touchdowns to make people not like Bo Nix? He didn't have a great senior bowl. He didn't go down there and light the world on fire. It's a difficult situation to look great though. I will say when you're with brand new people in an offense, you don't know. So that could have been it. I don't know though, because like you said, you flip on a game of Bo Nix. He doesn't put the ball in harm's way. Yeah, there's a lot of fluff you got to fast forward through that's going to be meaningless when you get to the NFL. But even when he is attacking down the football field, he's thrown with anticipation, probably better than anyone else in this draft class, truly, in terms of like how far before breaks he's willing to let it rip. And he just he threw like three bad like in terms like balls that should have been picked like probably three that were actually bad the entire year like

he did not make mistakes with the football everyone remembers Auburn Bo Nix but he turned into a completely different guy by the end of his football career so the age to 24 you know same amount of years as Jane Daniels but a full year older, almost a full year older, 10 months older than Jayden Daniels. So that, the sticker shock of that is obviously not great, but that's what Joe Burrow was coming into the NFL. It's not really that big a deal. Quarterback's a different animal altogether, it seems like, from a performance perspective than other positions with age and how it relates to it.

So I don't know. I've asked a bunch of people um the same question and everyone's just like yeah i kind of he's okay it's like i think he'd be better than okay because it's the stats and what he did at oregon this past year was definitely better than okay there's a listener of mine who loves data who was trying to look into what stats correlate most to success and of course the correlation is pretty low with everything but college quarterback rating came out the highest and that's Bo Nix, man. I mean, it's just, sometimes you just, I don't know, it scrambles my brain a bit because when Joe Burrow was doing what he was doing, he did all the same stuff. He put up

insane numbers. He had great receivers around him. He put up insane numbers. He had great receivers around him. He had a great offensive system around him. He made some plays, but was not the next Josh Allen out there in any capacity. And he goes into a great situation and succeeds. Maybe that's too easy of a comparison, but you could see it. And there was one throw in particular that I really liked and, you know, talking about about hundreds of throws but where he had to layer the ball over a linebacker to his receiver it was in front of a safety behind a linebacker and he put the exact right amount of touch on the football and was it perfectly like right here not exactly but the the touch on it was really nice the arc on it was really nice it just showed kind of a feel for the game so this is a guy that you could see Kevin O'Connell saying, well, it's not like Kirk

Cousins had the best arm of all time, but getting it out, getting it to the right place, having some scramble ability, all this kind of does point you to kind of a Bo Nix, which maybe he'll be picked in the third round. I have no idea, but right. I mean, that's just the range of outcomes with him. But at 11, is that okay with you with Bo Nix or would you want to wait till later? That's okay with me. Honestly, I think he's that good. Now I may be out on a limb with that,

but I, again, I said, I have no over Jane Daniel. So I take Jane Daniels somewhere in the top 10. I'd take Bo Nix somewhere in the top 10. That is I, I don't have to ask you at the end. What's your hottest take in a draft season? Cause that's that's it yeah am i wrong for putting myself in the new england patriots shoes and saying our roster is garbage and we could use all of these draft picks is that am i am i wrong for thinking that it is realistic that the patriots could say let's play it out for a year under gerard mayo he's going to be our coach for a long time. We are not going to set up Jaden Daniels or Drake May to succeed here. There's a quarterback next year that everybody's really into that maybe we

could be in position for. So let's ride it out, trade with the Vikings, get as much draft capital as we can and rebuild. Am I wrong for thinking that's a realistic scenario? I don't think you're wrong at all. And truthfully, if Drake May does go too, I'm not picking any of these quarterbacks at three from the Patriots.

You burn their entire rookie contract because your roster is too far away. You are at least three years away. More realistically, probably four years away because you don't have a single rookie contract guy that's worth a darn right now. Truly, there's not cheap talent on this roster that's going to move the needle for you from a roster building perspective so if you do put a good situation around them

but if you just stand pat three and put a good situation around this guy it's purely via free agency and at that point it's like you've kind of wasted the whole boat and there's a high high high chance that should this guy not hit the ground running, which a lot of the history will show, the vast majority of quarterbacks don't, especially when they go into that situation. If they don't hit the ground running, you're drafting number one overall next year. That's how bad this roster is. You're drafting number one overall.

And say what you want about Bill Belichick, he's still probably got more out of that roster than Gerard Mayhewel out of that roster to still be drafted number three. So arrow's pointing to another number one overall pick for you, even if you do draft a quarterback, and then you're in the Titan situation where sure, maybe you get a haul for it next year, but I would rather than start a rookie clock kind of the next year to start, you know, and have the pieces around him to begin with, to give him that situation because you risk just ruin that guy's confidence. So in my opinion, there's very few scenarios where I'm actually drafting a quarterback in this class on the Patriots. If I get, you know,

what the Vikings seemingly are willing to offer here. Yeah. I keep coming back to that. You know, they should have a long-term vision because the short-term just ruined Mac Jones. And I don't ever think Mac Jones was going to be a megastar, but I also think if he went to San Francisco, we saw enough of a sample in his first year to believe that in the right situation, he could have been successful. And what a different history it would be in the NFL if all those draft reporters were right and he went to San Francisco instead of Trey Lance. We would have never found out about Brock Purdy.

Probably. What else you got for me? Oh, I like how you suffer from this. Every time I asked, I was going to say, I don't want to, you,

you, you have to be bubbling over with takes here. I mean, well, I don't want to think too much more about the Minnesota Vikings. So anything, go ahead and go anything. Um,

gosh, I'm trying to think of anything here. the Minnesota Vikings. Oh, anything. Go anything. Gosh. I'm trying to think of anything here. Am I wrong to think that Caleb Williams may not be the second coming? He's absurdly talented, but there's a path to him being – I'm trying to think of a quarterback that he could be. Maybe like a Russell Wilson tier or like you know that everyone's putting him in this like he's going to be tier one that she just may end up being solid at the next level and not the savior for the Bears so I'm glad you said this because

I'm going to make a little connection to now a women's basketball story that everyone knows in Caitlin Clark so Caitlin Clark is a wonderful WNBA prospect, a tremendous, tremendous player, but having watched the game for a very long time, and I'm kind of like you of the WNBA draft. I just only, I do it for fun. Uh, but I've been making WNBA fun now. So that's true. That's true. Uh, that won't be for long though. But, um, I've been making WNBA draft boards for a long time. I just only share them with my wife and friends who like women's basketball. But so I've seen some of the greatest players of all time as prospects.

When I watch Caitlin Clark, I go, yeah, I mean, I see it. I don't think I see the best prospect of all time. But the hype around it is, oh man, this is the best player who has ever stepped on a basketball court. I feel the same way about Caleb Williams, where I have watched a ton of Caleb Williams over the last couple of years. And I go, I mean, I see the magical throws. I see the physical skillset. I also see some things that I really don't like projecting to the next level that could keep him from greatness. And one of those was at the end of the Washington game, the dude just gave up playing football at the end of that game. And I know life was hard last year at USC. It was not easy. You and I were playing strong safety for them. It was bad. But you also don't see Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, like great winning quarterbacks. You don't see them usually kind of just melt a little bit when things got really hard. And I thought that was the case for him. I also think if you fumble 700 times in a row, that that's a tendency. Fumbling is a tendency.

It was for James Winston and it was for Sam Darnold and nobody ever talked about it in college. It was like, Oh, they're just generational. Don't worry about it there's that and i so i think that he will be super exciting and could be really really good when he's on but then very frustrating when he's not so i yeah i like that take i don't think that i look at him and go oh yeah that's andrew luck james isn't like a bad comparison in terms of like what he could end up being at the next level which is just like a lot of fun, a lot of up, but also there could be a lot of down to his game that I worry about. Now, obviously, I think he's going to a solid situation,

a unique situation where it is, but his floor just seems lower than I think people are letting on. And like, there's no super high floor prospect in this class, right? It's not, it's just, I would rather like comparing him to guys like Burrow, Lawrence, those guys were higher floor in my opinion you just like saw the consistency already and like the kind of what needs to look like at the nfl level you had that at collegiate

level already williams just a little farther away in my opinion let me go a little uh in the same direction of off from the vikings just a tad here but a I might be. Let me go a little in the same direction of off from the Vikings, just a tad here. But a matter of interest for Vikings fans is Aaron Rodgers and what he's going to look like with the New York Jets. So the Jets are probably going to draft Brock Bowers or something in this draft to try to get a weapon for him. I don't think at any point, tell me I'm wrong that Aaron Rogers and the New York jets will be a relevant NFL team for next year. I just don't see it. Um,

my former intern Haley English, who also interned at PFF earmuffs for her because she's a jets fan and she's waited forever. But I just, I think that he's just washed and it's going to be Russell Wilson inver type of thing no matter who they draft i think you're wrong there though okay not maybe not in terms like wash me he may not look close to what he may not he may look like brett farve 2010 vikings right it could be just like oh man that was he's time to go you know time to hang it up sort of thing but it's hard to understate how much better that still is than Zach Wilson, right? Like that's still insanely better than Zach Wilson.

And so this is a team that went seven and 10, you know, same record as the Vikings with that at quarterback. Cause the defense is just unreal is unbelievable defense. No reason to think they'd take a step back from last year. So yeah, I, he may, he may not be Aaron Rogers of old, but it's not going to take much for this team to be much, much better.

And I think like bills are worse. Pat's still stink. Dolphins are worse. They, they, they should have a good chance of at least making the playoffs or so. See, I guess where I'm going with this,

and I know that losing digs is a huge deal and they're going to bring in a rookie receiver for sure in buffalo but their quarterback and i also think their coach on the defensive side sean mcdermott is an excellent defensive coach who raises the level his motivational tactics questionable at times but um his uh but his defensive ability still quite good uh and so i'm not gonna knock them down too much farther and with miami you know it's gonna mostly the same right same weapons maybe they could improve on the defensive side a bit so i just think that the jets are gonna have a hard time here and also we've seen this happen so many times. You mentioned Favre 2010, where you just talk yourself into, no, he's still got it, he's still got it.

This is an old man who is maybe 30 pounds lighter than he was at his peak with an Achilles injury. We're talking about Kirk and his Achilles and whether he's coming back. Kirk's like five years younger than this man. I just have a tough time with it. And I think they did get a great defensive performance last year, which does not guarantee they'll have another one this man. I just have a tough time with it. And I think they did get a great defensive performance last year, which does not guarantee they'll have another one this year. Just saying. I'm not picking them to win a Super Bowl by any means. I had my Super Bowl pick last year. That

ain't going to be the case this year, I'll just say. All right. How about this? I'm curious about your favorite defensive players in the first round, because we went through the, tell me I'm wrong. If they picked Bo Nix at 11, it would be fine. And you're good with that, which would mean you'd have the 23rd overall pick. I don't see them waiting to 23 for a quarterback because that is just too risky. And if they all go off the board and you're stuck with that guy from Tulane, that's not a great outcome, I think. So I'm sure he was wonderful at the Senior Bowl. I'm sorry. I know I have a listener who's from Tulane. I apologize, man. I know. I just hurt his feelings. But don't do that. So if they stuck at 23, though, I was making a list the other day of guys that I think might be a good fit. And there seems to be

a lot who could be available at 23. who would be your favorite defensive players for the Vikings in the back end of the first. There's two guys that I think you're hoping fall to them at 23. Should they not obviously use that big, but one is layout to lot to the UCLA defensive end. I think it's just an awesome, awesome pass rusher. I think he's the most skilled pass rusher in this draft.

And truthfully, like he's right up there with the Bosa's in terms of just skilled pass rushers coming out of college football in recent memory. So that's a dream scenario. And then when I go back to for them, and obviously a lot of people have the mocks of them trading up, but still could be there at 23. Nate Wiggins, the Clemson corner, he's just an awesome man cover corner. They don't have a pure guy who can go one-on-one. And if you have that in Brian Flores defense, he'll let them do that. Right.

He will do the stuff around to make his, it'll just sends the defense to another level and what they can do outside of that guy. But quite frankly, didn't have that last year with him. So I think that Wiggins, like anyone talks about his tackling, but again, Flores would not ask him to tackle. He would ask him to go man up their best wide receiver. And I think Wiggins is the kind of athlete that can do that.

Obviously when he runs sub four three, you can at least stick with him down the football field. But I saw him just do some special things in terms of being able to react back downhill on hitches and those sort of routes that usually your pure speed guys can struggle with. So I think Wiggins is your dream fit at corner if you're the Minnesota Vikings in this class. The other guys that I have my eye on are the defensive tackles. It's just a cheat code. There's so few teams with great defensive tackles. I was trying to think of how many defensive tackles in the league that are a difference

maker on a weekly basis. If you can get one, then you have something really special with your defense. And I don't know. I mean, do we think that Murphy and Newton are those guys? I think they go. I think Murphy for sure is I think Newton's close to that. I wish he was a little bit more athletic because he's slightly undersized, but I think Murphy for sure is I think Newton's close to that. I wish he was a little bit more athletic because he's slightly undersized. But I think he's super skilled though for DT.

But if my hot take is, I mean, hot take, they go higher than people imagine because that position DT in this year's class, there's the largest gap between tier one and tier two. It goes from those two guys who I think probably end up both top 21 picks to probably a guy I'm not drafted until the end of the second round. It's just a massive chasm to where if you

need one, if you're like the Bengals who could really want one, the Seahawks who could really want one, I don't see how you pass up early on because there's just not another dude there on the board for you until, you know, third round. And those third round guys are like placeholders a lot of times, you know, not a lot of impact third round DTs coming up. So yeah, I think those DTs go higher than people think just because the scarcity of

the position does feel like that. That would be a stick at 11, take Murphy type of thing, which again, just seems too risky for me, unless the Vikings had some plan to trade back up. But then you're talking about Denver picking, talking about the Raiders picking,

and you're potentially letting Penix and Knicks go to those guys. Yeah, that one has always seemed a little bit of a stretch for me. Before we wrap up, I want to know this from you. You've done the draft for a long time. I know this because you're in my book, and I wrote about how you even as a kid were making draft boards and trying to pick which guys the Packers were going to take in the draft. So you've been thinking about the draft for a long time. I want you to give me your favorite guy, a quarterback that you crushed, that you nailed and you're so proud of.

You nailed the evaluation. You loved him. And then he turned out to be star and the one that crushed you the most. one you were like no this guy's not any good and he's gonna stink and then he turned out to be great give me your favorites oh i'm sure there's many over the years when you try to study this as long as you have i will say in 2017 so that was mahomes deshaun watson that year i was like just passing this class I didn't think that class was like worth it which which made sense with Trubisky I hit on Trubisky saying that did not obviously hit on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson I'm trying to think of a guy I called who I really

liked coming out and then he ended up exceeding expectations I loved Russell Wilson coming out now I wasn't a draft analyst back then but I just remember him because I was a big Wisconsin fan. And I remember him at Wisconsin just being like, this guy's different than, like, he doesn't miss. He never missed throws. And Wisconsin, I knew some shoddy QBs throughout the early 2000s growing up. And I was just like, this guy's different. Couldn't believe when they were like, you know, he fell to the third round. Not to say, say you know i had any chops as an evaluator back then that was the one guy where i was just like man i think he starts over matt flynn like year one i'm like i think he starts over matt flynn lo and behold that ended up happening so that was one where i was like that was obviously before i think it was like the first year i guess that was 2012 draft that was right when i was

starting at pff so uh semi called that one I'll say can't give us too much credit. Going back to childhood. I remember thinking this T Martin guy is going to be even better than Peyton Manning because, you know, you don't even know how scouting works or anything, but he won the national championship. And I think it was, he throw into peerless price and everything. And then you go, oh man, he's going to be this dynamic. So when I got mad and I played with T Martin, put them in and it just, you know, never, man, he's going to be this dynamic. So when I got Madden, I played with T. Martin, put him in,

and it just never really became a thing. The worst and the best one came in back-to-back classes for me. The best is actually Patrick Mahomes. I was obsessed with Patrick Mahomes, loved watching him play. That's all you need. That's all you need if you hit that one. Yep, there's a tweet that's proof. Every once in a while I retweet it just to make fun of the draft analysts who retweet their old

takes. But the, the other, then the next year was Josh Allen and Josh Rosen, just totally wrong on both of them would have taken Josh Rosen way over Josh Allen and would have been a complete dope. So that's quarterback life. It is. If you're batting, gosh, what do you even need to bat? Over 50% and you're probably the best quarterback value in the world. Yeah, it's probably like sports gambling. If you're at 54%, you're amazing. So last thing, what do you think happens here? What do you think the Vikings do? I'm so sad to say this, but I think Jane Daniels goes too. I think they get a nice big

deal to go up and they get Rick May of three. i don't want it to happen but something in my gut says that that's going to happen i think so too that's i that's going to be my final prediction as well and uh drake may caleb williams jared goff and jordan love in the same division will be really something to witness i think yeah so uh mikener, you're the best. If I was handed a team and started a scouting department, you would be one of my first picks to join that department. You're one of my favorite evaluators of the draft ever, and I appreciate you taking the time.

I'm glad we could get together before the draft, man. Thanks for doing this. For sure, Matthew. Thanks for having me, brother. Football.