Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - National NFL writer Arif Hasan talks about Kirk Cousins turning a corner

Episode Date: January 11, 2023

Matthew Coller is joined by Pro Football Network's Arif Hasan to talk about his reaction to the Vikings' crazy season, what their stats mean in regards to a potential playoff run, why he thinks Kirk Cousins' best play could be ahead and more... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and returning to the show now with Pro Football Network, now a national writer. So we have to pay our full respect to the national writer, Arif Hasan. He's just gone on to better things than a tiny little beat covering one team. So humbled, honored. What is going on, Ari? Not much.

All I've gotten are sarcastic comments about this national role, which is nice. Love to see it. I definitely look down on everybody in a beat role. That's 100% true. But you've always been lesser than me. This changes nothing. Well, you know, I was traditional media once upon a time with AM radio.

So let's not quite go there. No, but I'm happy for you to see you getting an opportunity to write about the entire National Football League. But it is hilarious, objectively funny, that the Vikings win 13 games as soon as you leave. So you were on the beat, so to speak, for what, 2020, 2021? Were you on 2019? I think you were, right? I was, yeah. So you did get a playoff game,

but yet still somehow receivers were skipping practice and it was still awkward. Learning about truths to rumors, et cetera. All rumors. Yeah, all rumors really. So now they have this wonderful season. Everybody loves each other in the locker room. The coach is super friendly and would have probably loved to answer your questions.

Unlike Mike Zimmer, who didn't like any of our questions, really. It wasn't just you. But now it's great. It's really since you left that everything has sort of come together. I like to think that actually it's because of Chad Graff and that my leaving was incidental. But it's tough to tell with these things. So like the first time Kirk Cousins ever addressed me by name was like my last post

game presser with the vikings i was like oh he finally figured out who i am all right bye uh maybe he's more comfortable now that you're gone and i'm not gonna go i don't blame him for that that joke but uh let's but uh let's let let's get get into this the season on the whole though because of course your twitter is hilarious to watch because of the people that respond to you and everything else uh throughout this entire season though you and i we have similar brains uh and we look at the data and the numbers and everything else and we are very familiar with the concept of regression sustainability and how to statistically evaluate strengths of teams and so forth and yet it had to be the minnesota vikings that would just

defy everything that you and i have ever believed in about sports and that has guided us mostly to truth along the way. Like we don't believe in the numbers and what they tell us out of random. It's because they've made us right so many times. Yeah. Just by having access and sort of knowing how to look at what tells you something and what doesn't. And yet with this Vikings team over and over,

it was like, can it really? Will it possibly? I don't know. And then it did. So what has been your feeling on why it has defied the numbers the way that it has? Well, part of it is just inherent to the Vikings, right? They make fools of everyone constantly. So that's a big part of it. Right. But I mean, like the Vikings have benefited from a couple of things that are random and a couple of things that are not right. They've benefited from the fact that they seem to have small edges here and there. Like, for example, in situational football, they're a smarter team.

And Kirk Cousins in particular has been much better in terms of like the two minute drill and things like that. And that's been really important. Right. You know, he's better in terms of managing where the minute drill and things like that. And that's been really important. Right. You know, he's better in terms of managing where the ball needs to go for clock management. I mean, it wasn't that long ago that we were watching him throw like with 40 seconds left,

no timeouts over the middle of the field where of course the receiver was open because why would you cover that guy? We want you to throw that. And so he obliged, right. And it, you know, during the clock,

it prevented the Vikings from being and aside from the field goal fiasco against the Bears just now um they've been very good at making sure all the players need know what they need to do in these situations of themselves managing the clock in these situations uh and and making sure that you know they don't allow for example opposing drives I mean one of the biggest reasons the Vikings were so bad in similar situations last year was not because they failed to score in those situations, although fairly often they would fail to score, but because every single one of those drives would end with just the right amount of time

for somebody to do something with it, right? And so, you know, the Vikings defense was as bad last year as it is this year but you know putting them on the field in a touchdown or or to go situation um in the final two minutes of the half that's a pretty big difference right um also of course you know the vikings defense has been adapting over the course of the game maybe a little bit too late but still adapting uh and so the fourth quarter performance has been nice i don't know how you know repeatable that is going forward i think that if you struggle against a bunch of backup quarterbacks you know you

eventually your bill will come due right i think that the vikings will probably be fine against the giants the giants game that they just had a week and a half ago two weeks ago i mean that didn't seem like it was completely out of like you know three-point favorites for a reason they won by three points um you've got some problems at at right tackle and at center that you know against this particular team are concerns but you know also the giants don't you know they're injured at cornerback right and so you know it all it all kind of just kind of works itself out um that was a fairly normal game compared to some of the games the Vikings have had. And so I'm concerned about like the fact that you needed to force a fumble on special teams against the Saints.

Right. I'm concerned about, you know, the way I mean, at least the Bills are a good team. But like that's not ever happening in the NFL again ever. Right. That's ridiculous. Right. So, you know, you know, forcing a fumble again on special teams because you know how your former teammate Amir Smith-Marset carries the ball? That's not happening again. So, like, some of these games hinge on these particular moments that are probably not going to help you when you play the Bills again or when you play in the playoffs, you know, the Eagles, right? I mean, there's a reason the Eagles blew them out of the water, right? So,

um, some of it is that they've played, you know, opponents that have not been there. Some of it has been that the ball has bounced their way. Um, their best games happen to occur when they have bad luck. So, um, it is kind of difficult to like the Colts game, for example, you know, that's not an example of the Vikings benefiting from good luck. That's the Vikings getting absolutely demolished by both bad luck and bad refereeing and then playing the best game. So, you know, there are some instances where it's like the Colts game is actually a sign of positivity. But for the most part, it's just like. I guess, I mean, the Dol dolphins played their their third stringer to

start and then reverted to the second stringer that didn't have any game week practice so like does that game tell you that the vikings can beat the dolphins generally probably not um they just went up against a string of backup quarterbacks and so uh having one score games against them tells me that they're just not a complete squad and that's fine there's way better than they were last year i don't want to like take away from that but like as we evaluate who the vikings are in the playoffs we've seen some really good play from kirk cousins the past couple of weeks um that i think that's who i've been looking for this entire tenure of kirk cousins in minnesota if that continues you know all bets are off but like most of the season he's

played poorly until the final moments and that that concerns me well and that's what's interesting always about cousins is trying to predict which part of the cousins coaster is coming up next and unlike in previous years they won games where he played very poorly i mean that the washington game which you know you could say is it his fault or not? I mean, they got destroyed on the offensive line and so forth. And he made some big throws when they were necessary, but that was not a well-played Kirk Cousins football game by any means. The same thing with, you know, the dolphins game, the first half of that game, they couldn't really move the football at all. I think they had like nine or 10 punts in that game overall. So there's quite a few games in the

middle of the season where you're like, this is not going very well. But Cousins said something interesting that did sort of pique my interest, which was he said that it took until really the Detroit game at Detroit, where he started to feel a hundred percent in command of the offense. And when you look at just how he's played down the stretch, aside from where it didn't go well, but his command of the offense, I think it's clear that he didn't always know where the ball was supposed to go. The number of sacks that he took also like on third downs,

where as opposed to having an easy check down that can get four yards on third and 10, I think Kevin O'Connell doesn't believe in that. When you look at weird tape, you see the routes going actually downfield, all of them. on third and 10. I think Kevin O'Connell doesn't believe in that. When you look at on tape, you see the routes going actually downfield, all of them. So almost to say like, nope, I am not letting you check that ball. I want that first down. I want first down or sack because our punter can kick it all the way out to the parking lot. So we don't care if you take a sack on third down. It's kind of remarkable how the high percentage of all of his sacks that are on third down

in those types of situations, which are less harmful, I think, on third and 12 than it would be on like first and 10. So I think that there's like a subtle understanding of kind of what the quarterback needs by Kevin O'Connell, but also it's pushing him to his absolute maximum. And that may have resulted in some bad moments moments but ultimately got them to a much better place as they go into the playoffs when you consider also the fact that the defense is healthy they've been blitzing more often because after kevin o'connell just bludgeoned uh ed donatello enough times like he finally did it and i just charted this out for an article but it's very clear you can see the uptick in blitzing in recent weeks.

So like last four weeks, I want to say it's just been, they're like a blitzing team now, like as opposed to they blitz league average or they're blitzing actually. Yeah. And really the only game that they didn't go kind of crazy with blitzing was against the giants. And I wonder if that's because Daniel Jones has been okay against the blitz

this year, but like they've become more aggressive. And I think when you talk about those end of games things, there's a reason why like older teams generally tend to win the super bowl because experience really matters in the NFL. And I also think the difference between last year and this year is that they probably win 11 games last year. If Zedariusith and daniel hunter were the edge rushers and not dj wanham and don't recall honestly like after everson griffin went out i don't remember who was but kenny willekes i believe there was a i think it was because i don't think it was patrick jones right that's right yeah and uh janarius was injured right so like which i guess again um but like

daniel you mean yeah daniel was out well daniel was out but like janarius robinson oh janarius sorry i thought you said zadarius my mistake no no no janarius robinson was was injured so um uh so like you know daniel gone for half the season everson gone for everson reasons um yeah you don't like dj want and like the the guy that just like finds himself getting into sacks like i love the fact that he's hitting his bonuses and getting numbers but that's not going to help you pressure the quarterback right and so you know the vikings were like the dairies is available really all right bring them in you know and they're they're doing a great job oh yeah they had if they had them last year would have been phenomenal.

And both of them, Daniil and Z'Darrius Smith are in the top six. I think Z'Darrius is fourth and Daniil is sixth in quarterback pressures. So like that's a big deal to have those two guys as opposed to last year where they couldn't pressure the quarterback at all unless Mike Zimmer was blitzing like crazy, which opened the door for lots of big plays against them. So comparing this year to last year is pretty tricky in that way. But it's also super weird that they're 28th in points and 31st in yards when you have two edge rushers who are that good.

And I know that PFF a while back, they did a study that found that coverage was more important than pass rush, and people were not happy with that uh but i think that there's probably a there's a maybe some evidence there of that this year and also it's just crazy that they get nothing from anybody else i mean those two guys have a bunch of sacks and a bunch of pressures yet the vikings are by pro football reference i think 22nd and pressure percentage 23rd and sacks. They can't really get after the quarterback despite having two amazing edge rushers. And I think that's really proven costly where you're giving Mike White, Daniel Jones, these guys a lot of time to throw the football. So I think what's fascinating about this team, Arif, is just like the strengths are so strong.

And I saw you tweeting about like the Vikings being, I think fourth and PFFs overall grading system. That doesn't mean PFF thinks they're the fourth best team in the league. I think what that means is they've had some unbelievable performances by superstar players. The strengths are super strong. The weaknesses are super weak. And what you end up with is a point differential. That's almost zero.

Yeah. Which saved by their their by their meaningless performance against the bears right um but yeah no it's it's it's crazy especially because like you know someone suggested that this is uh you know evidence because i think they're also fourth in like defense or something like that or they were at some point in the season in pff overall great again not how they rank defenses this is just they just they just did addition right but like if your nose tackle is the best nose tackle in the nfl that's better than not but that is not you know but that that helps you in your overall grade but it doesn't help you as

much on defense so like uh yeah a lot of the players are actually pretty good at doing the job they're asked to do and this brings the question, and maybe it's a coordinator problem and it sounds like it is right. But like if, if Zedarius Smith and Daniel Hunter are doing their jobs pretty well, Patrick Peterson's doing his job really well. If Harrison Smith is doing the job that's asked of him really well. And if Eric Hendricks, I mean,

I guess he's not doing the job that's asked of him very well, but I would think that they're also a defensive coordinator problem more than an Eric Hendricks problem. You know, if all these players players doing their job pretty well if cameron dancer's biggest problem is like busts right which is significant but is not the reason you're like 31st and yards 25th and points right um if that's all true then maybe we should ask hey should they be doing those jobs right if they're good at their job and the and the job is getting them 31st and yards like i don't know man so i think that that's like part of it right and the fact that eric hendricks is like slow to react to stuff which has never

happened in his career going all the way back to ucla i mean his thing in the draft was that he was an instinctive linebacker right and and that just carried over like there's there's something wrong with the way you're teaching him keys and asking him to do if Harrison Smith, who's one of the best blitzing safeties in the NFL doesn't get a blitz until week 14 or something crazy. Like there's something like that. What are you doing? Why are we doing this? Why even have Harrison Smith? Like it's,

you're not asking him to do Harrison Smith things. You might as well just put like actually Anthony Harris back harris back there i guess he just got something about the eagles but that's an anthony harris job like he's good at the one thing that you're asking harrison smith to do um so it is very um frustrating the fact that the the that ed donatel i guess the broadcast told a story that like ke O'Connell just like went through the film with that Donatone was like, here's how I would attack you. And like. Good, I'm glad Kevin O'Connell did that, but Ed, buddy. Did you need that? That's weird. Folks, have you noticed that I'm always talking about liquid death here on the show?

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and said that you've done the same with great results even if your family thinks that you are downing beer after beer, find Liquid Death at Hy-Vee 7-Eleven Target or check out liquiddeath.com slash insider. That's liquiddeath.com slash insider. Well, and there is maybe an argument to be made that, I mean, they want to be the Kumbaya team. They want to be best friends forever with everybody in the building, but midway through the season, maybe they should have just made a change and just put Mike Petten in charge because it has been pretty clear how in over his head, Ed Donatell has been all year. And then at one point he was asked pretty

directly, is it the players or is it you? And he said, it's the execution of the scheme. It's like, okay, well, that's going to go. That's great. That's going to really inspire everybody that you're the guy. And I was just looking this up because at one point on a podcast, I also screamed, why bother having Harrison Smith because, because like we've seen, and this is how it's always funny. Cause it's like when a new coaching regime comes in, it's like, you should have just listened to the show for how to use the Harrison Smith. I mean, we've seen him for thousands of plays be amazing. I could have told you the simplest thing. Uh, you got to guess for how many times he rushed the passer all season long. If you don't know this off uh you got to guess for how many times he rushed the

passer all season long if you don't know this off the top of your head how many times you think it was three it's not enough okay it was 12 so and I think that that really kicked up over the last like handful of games yeah that's gotta be taking one of the most dynamic playmakers in the box and you're barely lining him up in the box and that pff has those numbers too that in he was in the box for well over a hundred snaps less this year than he was last year and i mean at his peak i mean we're talking about almost 200 less snaps in the box from harrison smith's best years that's what does, man. I mean, that's his thing. He's like the quintessential box safety who can do it all, and it just completely took that away from him. I agree.

My always replacement-level safety was Trey Boston. Somebody get just Trey Boston if you want somebody to roam around back there and catch the ball when it comes to him. But Trey Boston could have had the same season as Harrison Smith in a lot of ways, and I think that's a failure. And they might look back at this after the playoffs and be like, you know what? I don't know if Kevin O'Connell just showing Ed Donatel where the bad men are hurting him is like the only plan that they should have had.

Maybe they should have sort of pushed the panic button a little and said, if you're really going to go for the Super Bowl, this has to change. So now what it comes down to is, to me, the defense just has to get turnovers and sacks and ask me how to predict turnovers and sacks i have no idea like they just have every announcer's keys to the game right right yes yeah they just have to hold they just have to get them yeah it's yeah it's it's it's rough right like so like you know patrick peterson um has been playing a a little bit better in this in the back half of the season i think a lot of that just has to do with that donald hill being like fine i mean you're patrick peterson let's just do the

thing right like you're still in zone but just do the thing um and and i just feel like ask harrison smith to do that right like so Brett Coleman uh you know his YouTube channel um he's got a video a couple years ago where he talked about Harrison Smith it mostly breaks down the Vikings defense under Zimmer it does some really great stuff about how he breaks down the half field responsibilities but in it he compares Harrison Smith to Troy Polamalu and that comparison had never occurred to me Harrison Smith has has short hair. Troy Palomaro has long hair would never have occurred to me. But it's a good one. It's a really good one, especially, you know, the things that made Palomaro really good are the fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers defense was like, yeah, man, he's Troy. He, if God tells him to freelance, which is often how Troy describes it, right? God told me to blitz, right? And God is a higher authority than the defensive coordinator. And so he'll just do it.

And the rest of the defense is like, oh, yeah, I guess we're in cover one now. I don't know. Sure. And it worked. The Steelers defenses were pretty good, if I remember correctly. So, like, dude, just, like, organize the defense around what Harrison Smith and Eric Hendricks want. Just what do they want?

That's your defense, right? Daniil Hunter and Zedaria Smith will figure it out, right? They'll figure it out. You know, they know how to stop the run. Zedaria Smith has been better at stopping the run this year than I anticipated, but both have been very good at rushing the passer. Daniil especially has been great at kind of every aspect of the game.

But like, they'll figure it out. Dalvin Tomlinson, Harrison Phillips, they know what they need to do. Just like, just like let them, I'm not saying let them be the coordinator, but in the game plan, just ask them like, hey, what do you think about this?

You've been watching just as much film. What do you think about this? What are the tendencies here? And not just like dictate to them what the defense needs to be because that's just not working. uh not really at all and when i think you brought up a really key point here and not that the nfc is wrought with amazing quarterbacks at this point in the playoffs but when you look at the vikings quarterback schedule i mean you

would not guess they would end up 31st and yards against these fellows. Right. I mean, like there's. Skylar Thompson did that to you? What? Andy Dalton? Like, come on. Mac Jones, career high. Career high passing yards. Mac Jones.

Mac Jones is devastated about his season. You hear him talk about it. He just like can't believe how bad it went. Except for that one game. Yeah. Right. Fans are calling for Bailey Zappi. I don't know that they're wrong. That's how bad it went except for that one game yeah right fans are calling for bailey zappy i don't know that they're wrong that's how bad it is and he went for 382 and like it's it's and i i

just completely agree with you that when you look at the names and you look at the talent it's just so hard to make a case that this shouldn't have been like the 20th best defense or 15th best defense like the hope was like going in or they were like hey man what do you think like the best case scenario that's reasonable for the vikings and it's like well you bring in an offensive guy maybe you have a top five offense maybe that's optimistically that's the best case scenario defense get it up to average maybe below average those are the best case scenarios for you. The defense was so bad last year. And if you can, you know, this new scheme, the cover six that, you know, the too high looks that, you know, we were both in that film session where O'Connell gushed over why

he always likes to be too high at the beginning of every snap. This is how Staley did such a good job. You know, all that, right? All of that is the case, right? And you bring up the defense to like 15th and the offense to like fifth, it's the best team in the NFC. It just is right. Um, you know, the Eagles have a good argument for saying that's not the case, but you know,

at least you'd be in, in the argument. Right. And like, nope, we're just not there. We're just not there. We're just not there. And it's just, and they have to gut out every game and then you can't rely on that. You just, I mean, like there's a ton of gutsy teams. Uh, one of them just beat the Packers and are not in the playoffs. That's gutsiness is great, but it's not enough. Well, right. That's what makes the playoffs so much harder is that when you talk about your culture, it's true.

When you talk about your veteran players, your belief, your star power. But then I guess my question is like, wait, did the Eagles not have that? Or does. Right. Yeah. Right. Like Galen Hurts is playing through what is apparently immense pain. You don't think like he doesn't get to qualify for being as gutsy as Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins is taking the most hits in the NFL this year. This is the gutsiest I've ever seen him play fine.

Right. But he also like needs to throw the ball accurately. And if he doesn't do that run for 50 yards and he can't do that. Right. So yeah, I would argue that the Eagles are pretty gutsy and San Francisco. Who's more gutsy than San Francisco. Like yeah. The prettiest team in the NFC.

Right. I mean, they're going to pound your face in with the throws underneath, and they got this Mr. Irrelevant quarterback who's just delivering the ball. They got the probably defensive MVP. Like every team has these things, except for they don't have Ed Donatell as their defensive coordinator. And there might also be an argument for some of these players being on the older side that they get worn down or they're not what they used to be and it's hard to parse out what's

what but at the end of the day it's like they really just need to rely on those big plays because you know that they're going to be at a disadvantage scheme wise that every team that understands how to run the slant route is probably getting yards including for a minute there Nathan Peterman they're just like wait a minute this is not gonna and it probably getting yards, including for a minute there, Nathan Peterman. It was just like, wait a minute, this is not gonna, and it didn't, but there was a minute there where I thought they pulled Nathan Peterman because he was looking too good and put in Tim Boyle. We need somebody worse. We need someone worse. Where's that receiver who played quarterback for the Broncos that one time? Let me, let me ask you about Kirk though, because again, where the numbers and, uh, the wins don't exactly match up. I mean, this is so Kirk this year finished by

PFF 12th best in terms of overall grade. That's got to be ironically grade. What's that? That's gotta be his worst PFF grade. Oh, it's one of them. Yeah. I think got to be his worst pff grade oh it's one of them yeah i think that 2017 was his worst he normally hacks the pff system yeah yeah grades extremely high he's got the code yeah but his 7.1 yards per attempt uh was helped along by the indianapolis game where you're coming back from 30 and uh probably this last game where he just slaughtered the bears, but most of the season spent under seven yards per attempt. That's 11th in the league. I mean, these are not numbers that we've normally seen from Kirk cousins. We're used to 105 quarterback rating, 30 touchdowns, whatever. He got to 29. But you know, like we're kind of used to a certain level of efficiency from him,

eight yards per pass attempt, all those things. And so the efficiency is down. The yardage to some extent is up, but not crazy up. It's not like he threw for 5,200 yards, but the wins were there and it just had to be this way with Kirk, right? Like the one year he doesn't put up huge numbers, he gets lots of wins as opposed to the huge numbers and not the lot of wins. It's just never made sense with him. But I wonder what, what you think about that. Like the question that keeps coming up all the time is, is he different? Is something about him different?

And I think that what this shows you is how you dial up an offense that like leaning into the Kirk was going to come with downside, but the upside of throwing all the time has sort of shined through with this offense that if you pass all the time like you're you're going to get better efficiency just by proxy of like throwing because it's a more efficient because you're getting rid of runs yeah yeah right especially on first down right i mean the vikings are um i think on every down a distance except second and short more likely to to throw than the league average. Right. And that that adds up to being one of the throw happiest teams.

I think they're like fifth adjusted for situations like that. You know, the Chiefs are first, which like, duh. But yeah, I mean, imagine not throwing with Patrick Mahomes. Right. So like, yeah, it is kind of like an interesting situation. I think that, you know, the issue with cousins has always been like when it comes time for him to have to like make non-throwing decisions. Right. And you know, like whether that means scrambling on third down, whether that means throwing to the sideline and the two minute drill,

whether that means, you know, figuring out the timeout spike situation, um, whatever, right. Uh, you know, he's not been great. Right. And we, and we saw like just one fantastic example of that against the bears at the underneath throw, uh, to make a field goal, basically impossible. Um, but you know, we, we remember that being characteristic of who he is, right. Just not very good at situational football, not very good at mediating what he needs to do for, you know, the situation that we're in or whatever, right? And he doesn't pick on matchups. That's like one of the things that really bothers me.

And he still kind of doesn't, but the offense does it for him. So fine, whatever. So, you know, but yeah, but he's been a really great textbook quarterback a really great color by the numbers quarterback he's always going to color inside the lines really fantastically but when you need him to make art he wasn't going to do it right he was not going to paint his own painting uh and so that was kind of the issue and now he's doing it right but he's not efficient right now when he's asked to to to color inside the lions you know he can't he's not doing a very good job of it he's not throwing

remarkably efficiently he's leaning a little bit too much on justin jefferson again the offense is asking him to but he's not coming off of those reads when he needs to um he's not taking advantage of open looks when it's kj osborne adam thielen like when you look through the all 22 and you're only looking at adam thielen you're like this guy's open all the time what's what he has like 400 yards or something this year what is going on right so um and i'd love that kj osborne has kind of ascended into the the wide receiver two role i mean he deserves it he's playing really well uh plus it makes my take at the beginning of the season correct and that's important um but uh you know it's it's it's weird because if you combine the best of cousins where he is a really great first to third quarter, first and second down quarterback, especially in a clean pocket.

Right. If you take that guy from the last four years of the Vikings. Right. And you attach it on to this guy that has tied the league record for the most fourth quarter comebacks in a season somehow right if they're that if they if we have that if that's the quarterback right that's one of the three best quarterbacks in the nfl that's that's amazing right let's do that let's get the guy who's like always 13 yards per attempt or something and make him like a fourth quarter maven but for some reason they couldn't marry the two um i had always been saying like throughout the season i've been saying like look you know cousins is not playing as well as he normally does except in these key moments which is kind of the anti cousins um it's very andrew luck really the first couple of years of andrew luck um if you can get where andrew luck was right before he retired where he was like really efficient and then also really great situational

football um if you can get there with cousins they're going to tear through the playoffs especially in the nfc and um if he and i figured it had something to do with the way that this offense was designed because i remember in training camp he said and i'm so glad he said it because i could just lean on this quote all year he said that the progressions they're asking him to stay on his progressions for a little bit longer right and he is uncomfortable with that when he would move off a progression kevin o'connell's like hey stick with that just a little bit longer and um and and it's just not how he operates because if the reads there the reads not there he's not going to force himself to trust uh a 50 50 situation despite having some really phenomenal contested catch receivers right uh and he is just uncomfortable and so he's not used to throwing

that ball or putting the ball where it needs to be to win those contestants now halfway through the season he figured that out which means we got to see the catch of the decade um so you know i'm which i mean that was not a well-thrown ball that's the only way you can get the catch of the decade but you know like we're getting the throws now and now we just need him to kind of dial it in and be accurate on those throws that he's uncomfortable with and now that's happening my concern is that cousins is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in the clean pocket now every quarterback in a clean pocket this year is a positive pff grade that's how it works right um they've got good yards per attempt that's how it works cousins is one of two quarterbacks this year that is a better uh yards per attempt in a pressured pocket and a better adjusted yards per attempts that

accounts you know for touchdowns interceptions in a pressured pocket josh allen's the other one it turns out josh allen's actually really good in a clean pocket so kind of this man so i'm worried that that's going to collapse a little bit. And because pressure is very volatile. Statistically, if you take a look at play under pressure, it just evaporates, whether it's halfway through the season, end of the season, playoffs, season to season, whatever, whatever time span you have, it does not predict future pressure performance, not because it's not a skill it is, but because every pressured pocket is a little bit different. Every clean pocket is the same. And so it's just not a clean sample for you to look at. And so when you try to see how Kirk Cousins is going to play,

when that pressure comes, you can't really rely on the fact that he threw this dime to KJ Osborne as he was getting hit in the mouth. Fantastic. I love it. Good to see. That's a good performance. I cannot rely on it going forward so who Cousins is right now is very different from the Cousins that he was but the problems he's seeing are related to the Cousins that he was right because he needs to know that what he's doing is correct by the book but the book is like changed and it's catching up to him and maybe over the past three four games as he said and as

you can very very clearly see maybe he has kind of figured it out right maybe you know he's got you know the answers to the test finally and if that's the case if that's the quarterback that they have somebody that knows when to scramble and can get a first down when he's scrambling and knows what the sideline is and knows exactly how to manage the clock in those situations if they if they have that guy and they've got the guy that's figured out how to throw in the first three quarters, got a really good quarterback for the first time or really good quarterback. Yeah.

I mean, I think that him fully understanding an offense that completely leans into him is the first time. Cause John D Filippo tried it and I'm not sure. I'm not sure anybody understood that offense uh including john d filippo uh john d filippo would tell you about all the offenses that have ever existed but you're like what about yours like what's this supposed to do and that he could not tell us but i just i need to interrupt real quick because the story about the john d filippo offense i was like hey treadwell is running deep a lot is this happening is this are we is treadwell the deep receiver so i asked uh somebody at pff i think it was eric um i asked somebody at pff like

hey i don't want the targeted routes i want all the routes can you tell me how often stefan diggs is running short at the same time laquan treadwell is running deep and and the guy got back to me again i think it was eric and he said or if you you're not going to like this. And I was like, oh, God. And it was like one of the highest pairs of that kind of like the only higher one was Jarvis Landry and whatever other receiver there was that he was playing with at the time. Right. And it was like Treadwell is running deep a lot because that is his job in the John D. Filippo offense. The guy that ran a four seven because he never recovered from a broken leg.

And Stefan Diggs is running underneath. That offense was god awful. Yes, it was. And also the running game. Now we've sort of talked about the running game being a little ineffective. I don't think John DeFilippo ever even looked at how to run the football. And that was Delvin Cook peak of his powers. He was a little banged up that year, but I mean, he was really one of the elite running back.

He's ripping off like eight yards and attempt against the Patriots. And John D Filippo was like second half runs. Don't need them. No hard pass. But this has been much more organized and better coached of course, by Kevin O'Connell. And so it's sort of funny to me because like the whole time with Mike Zimmer in the run first, my whole thing was always like,

I thought about making hats or something, just like lean into cousins, see what happens. What's the worst that could happen. It's horrible. Like, then you just move on if you can't lean into him and they have. And it's like,

was I right? Maybe not. I don't know. I don't like his numbers and, and the mistakes are higher. There's no question. The interceptions are higher. The turnover worthy throws are higher. The sacks are quite a bit higher and that comes to staying on those reads,

which maybe he does too much and then ends up getting sacked, which seems to happen kind of in key situations at times. But then like, there's also a guy finally believing him. And I think that we, and communicating and communicating with it. Right. And I think that everybody's different when it comes to this stuff. Like some people need to be patted on the back and told that they're doing it right. Some people need to be screamed at.

Like some people, it doesn't matter at all, no matter how you coach them, they're just great or they're just terrible and there's nothing you can do. But with cousins, I think we always thought if someone believed in him, it would help because Washington's organization was a mess post-RG3. And then you had this situation where Zimmer never wanted him and was not really afraid to let us all know that he never wanted him. And now you get a coach who inherits him, but also knows him well and is a former quarterback who's always going to have his back. So I can't deny that that is a thing. I don't think Kirk Cousins as a quarterback has changed at all, but I think that everything around him has changed the approach in multiple ways, the schematic,

the emotional, the everything. And I think we've always believed that Cousins was what you gave to him and that's what he's been this year. And what you gave to him is also in any big moment, the most unstoppable human being in terms of getting open in this universe. So that also helps like a game winning drives, but here is Kelvin Johnson and Julio Jones for you or whatever, like the most unstoppable receivers. So like, it's just, it's always sort of the truth about him. But I think that what we talked about in years past was adjusting the sliders and what would happen and what would happen is kind of like, I think these results are ideal, even if the numbers are not as good, this was kind of like the best you were going to get

out of it. And you ended up with overall a really, really good season out of him. Yeah, no, for sure. I think that that's like a really good point. Like the, the, the feeling that he is supported is like, I cannot emphasize enough how critical that is to him and how much it's been imprinted upon him as a person. Like one of my last, I shouldn't say one of my last pieces at the athletic, one of my, one of my pieces at the athletic, one of my last longer pieces was about Kirk cousins.

I read through like his book, which not for me, but I read through his book. I books, by the way, real quick athlete books would be a great beat for somebody. Oh yeah. Oh my gosh. I just, you read enough of those. I bet you could suss out some pretty interesting stuff. But you know i go through like a bunch of interviews ones where he's a lot more open i go through his history and um you know he is not a quarterback that people have believed him and he has written rightly so basically like he doesn't have the tools to

be a highly recruited quarterback um there was one quarterbacks coach at michigan state that really pulled for him and that was kind of it he had a couple of mac offers if i remember correctly um and when they switched coaches he was like you know in a real bind and he didn't feel supported there right um goes to washington drafted behind rg3 and clearly the staff kind of liked him but the ownership did not uh The way Dan Snyder treated him, which among the number of people whose Dan Snyder's mistreated, Cousins is in a pretty good place, relatively speaking. But Dan Snyder treated him like nobody should ever treat any employee.

It was just like immediately after Kirk Cousins. I think it was the You Like That game. Immediately after kirk cousins like kind of proves himself as a quarterback leads a fourth quarter comeback has a monumental moment um for him his teammates are like jazzed up from everyone's excited the coach is celebrating the owner goes down doesn't even look cousins in the eye right goes down into the locker room walks walks right past him and goes into the medical area where RG three is. Now, if RG three was injured in that game, I'd understand, but he wasn't. He was just injured generally. Right.

And he's just like, man, this job is yours, Robert. We're going to get it back to you, man. And it's like, buddy, the starting quarterback's right there. He's right there and he's winning. And so cousins never felt supported which is one of the reasons that like he wasn't doing it for player rights one of the reasons that he got a fully guaranteed contract is because you cannot get rid of him this is a commitment to me and even then he was not supported by mike zimmer right and so it's just it's

imprinted upon him throughout his playing career the kind of person that he is and and what's happened and how he's had to kind of um prove himself constantly and now he's in an environment where like they want him right was it what was that will smith why don't they want me anymore right why don't they want me man um that's kind of where cousins has been he's like look i was like third and passer rating and they won't give me a contract they're just franchising me man um now he's at a place that wants him that's supporting that's building around him that's attempting to build an offense that can maximize him and like they they kind of did um what i think the sixers did for a while not tanking but rather um putting putting stressors in place so that coming out the

other side you end up a better player that's more capable of dealing with a lot of situations the problem is that that has to occur in a football season that only has 17 games and so this offense getting through this gauntlet of the offense probably produces a better quarterback for cousins that next year i would not be shocked if he turns out to be both efficient and uh whatever clutch means right if he turns out to be both efficient and whatever clutch means, right? If he turns out to have that late game efficiency as well as the early game efficiency, standard down efficiency, play action efficiency, right?

Clean pocket stuff. If he can figure out this offense as it is designed to be more explosive, to create deep shots, take advantage of everything Justin Jefferson can do. But in the meantime, Cousins has to be really uncomfortable for about 12 games. That's probably better, but it is really tough to watch in the interim as somebody struggles as they learn the new things that are demanded of them. But it's helpful to have that supportive environment

while that's happening. I think that if he doesn't have that while they're implementing this offense, that's asking him to fundamentally change the way that he plays. Um, I think it would collapse. Yeah. I think we've also probably gone past go and I've waffled on this a little bit as far as like changing quarterbacks or doing anything like that. I think they're going to stick with it. But the funny thing about, or ironic thing about this is that this year they've had so much go their way. And we know that teams turn over the whole playoffs every year, basically. And so they've had a lot of things go their way, health included. And, you know, he struggled for half the season to really

kind of get this down so he could actually play better next year and they win fewer games because of just the forces of the universe and also his own physical ability which you just never really know when that year is going to come where someone just doesn't have it anymore and russell wilson is the same age as kirk cousins and matt ryan started to fade at the same age right isn't that crazy and it's like so you just don't know and that's why being at this point right here right now it's so important that he plays at his highest level and so forth, which is really the last question to ask.

And you know what the question is going to be is just how far you think this team can go. It depends on who they play in the divisional round. I think they can beat the giants. I mean, obviously they already have, right? I, if, if they're up against the, like I know that Dak Prescott's been playing pretty poorly like for every interception that's not his fault there's a dropped one that is right like he's not

i a bunch of cowboys fans like all these interceptions aren't his fault and it's like you're right you know he's his interception rate is not great his turnover worthy play rate is not great right um i i still think that dac is uh a fairly high quality quarterback and that defense is just monstrous so right so if they you know if they play you know the cowboys or if they play um i don't know how the seating works because you have to reseat everybody all the time but you know if they play any of these teams you know if they end up playing san francisco somehow some way no i don't think that that's going to happen but I do think that they can advance past the wildcard brand. I just think that they'd have to get pretty lucky in their opponent draw for the divisional round for them to be able to come

out of this saying that, you know, they've got a shot at the NFC championship game. I think that that's where the story probably ends for them. I would love to be wrong, right? I'd love to be there. And for Kirk cousins to be like a reef, you're an idiot. And I'd be wrong, right? I'd love to be there. And for Kirk Cousins to be like, Arif, you're an idiot. And I'd be like, great. I've got a ticket to the Super Bowl. We'll see you there. Man, that sounds great. Take that little guy.

Yeah, right. This one's for Arif as he's walking out. You never believed it. Like the Georgia player saying that someone predicted them to go seven and five. No one did, but I don't care. I guess you believe that. Yeah, you can manufacture chips all you want, man. Go for it. PFF ranked us third.

It doesn't matter that they, yeah, it doesn't matter that they didn't anyway. Well, you know, I think that I think the way that I view it is this, what you just laid out is kind of the same way that I think everyone sees it, right? They can definitely beat the giants. That team's not that good, but go forth. And then after that, it's going to be really hard. And I guess the only way I've wanted to approach it is just in the most improbable season I think I've ever seen. I don't want to say that, oh, well, just because they go up against whoever, that's when it ends. And I really felt like they were going to go down to New Orleans in 19 and get killed. So you just I mean, this is like the Flacco year where he went, where you just go. I don't know if anybody is.

I don't know if anybody is really like that team. So I guess we'll find out. The 2007 Giants here, right, where it's just like tearing through that weird NFC. Right, right. So anyway, well, Arif, great stuff, man. Great to have you back on the show and good luck writing about the entire playoffs. As we remind everyone that you are a national reporter and you will be doing

national reporting for pro football network. And we will talk to you again soon, man. Yeah, for sure. I'll actually, I'll be at the playoff game. Oh, well then I'll see you. National import. So I'll see you. Wow you wow i mean so much attention on us here all right see you remit thanks for having me on yep good times