Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - NC Sports Bet's Drew Dinsick is all about the Vikings' over

Episode Date: April 5, 2025

Matthew Coller is joined by NBC Sports Bet's Drew Dinsick to discuss the Vikings' over/under and why he is taking the over on Minnesota this season.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Coller here and we welcome back to the show for our, I think, annual show that we do every year, every off season. Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Bet, where I give you a bunch of stuff and ask you, Hey, would you bet on this, Drew? And to me, you are one of the best analyst follows in the betting universe. And I'm glad to do this. We've had a lot of fun before. I've asked for ridiculous bets.

We've tried to figure out and project what's going to happen in the future. Kyler Murray never became a Viking. Unfortunately, that would have been an incredible call. Had that worked out for you once upon a time. But I am thrilled to have you back on the show. Drew Dinsick, what is going on, man? You know, nothing bad. I love the NFL off season almost as much as like the grind of, you know, betting game

by game during the regular season, just because it is super fun to sort of try to solve the puzzle of what are these teams going to be? How do you come up with a fair price? And honestly, this is the most fun team to talk about year in, year out. It feels like the Vikings are just constantly, there's something fascinating about their vision of team building and their, you know,

their palace intrigue of what's going on behind the scenes. And I feel like this is as good of a, it's maybe more of a fact finding learning for me so that I can have the right outlook. But, you know, it's come more of a fact-finding learning for me so that I can have the right outlook. But it's come up a couple of times as I've talked about NFL as we've seen wind troubles pop and seen some futures prices pop and people are kind of pick your brain on, well, who are you impressed by? Who's offseason really kind of stood out to you?

What are some major takeaways so far? To this point, I've been pretty impressed by what the Vikings are doing in terms of how they're allocating their resources. And, um, you know, I try to sort of read between the lines and, you know, just, just kind of, uh, uh, you know, when a team is investing this aggressively and building around, uh, you know, a rookie quarterback on a cost control deal. That's an exciting high upside team in general to try to price. And the NFC North is absolutely stacked now with fun, interesting teams.

But considering the way that things have broken for the Vikings for this off season, to me at least there's a universe where, you know, the road to the NFC goes through Minnesota. Well, and that's exactly what I wanna talk with you about. So I've got a bunch of questions here, and they start with, would you bet? And so now that, just in my feeling, we have the Aaron Rodgers conversation behind us.

We don't have to have that discussion because if it was two weeks ago, I would have asked you what your difference in a win total might be with Aaron Rodgers or JJ McCarthy. But since now Rodgers is just the guy we don't speak of on the show, let's talk about JJ McCarthy and a win total here in some numbers. Would you bet the JJ McCarthy throws more than 25 touchdowns this year? And this is the most interesting part. You talk about intrigue and why the Vikings will be at the top of the list. If we made one through 32 intrigue, I would put them up in the top five because find me a roster that has been delivered on a silver platter

Better to a young quarterback the only one I could think of and I did this research for an article Was really San Francisco and Brock Purdy where they gave him an elite run game an elite defense Incredible wide receivers and none of them were mad at the time or injured at the time for an entire season Oh, by the way a borderline MVP running back in Christian McCaffrey. I do not think the Vikings are quite as good top to bottom as the 2023 San Francisco 49ers roster, but it ain't that far away. So a lot goes on the shoulders of JJ McCarthy to make the most of this for a first year starting quarterback. I will not call him essentially a rookie.

He was around the team, but a first year starting quarterback. How is 25? Do you like my number for this? I do. It's a very, very sharp number. And, uh, I think that you have to lean over for a couple of reasons here. And I guess taking a giant step backwards, my thesis for just how do you price young quarterbacks and really just inexperienced quarterbacks.

To me, at least the takeaways are largely about just where are you on your development arc? Have you had an arrest of development? Because for the most part, the quarterbacks that flame out and fail who are perceived top 10 talents, taken in the top 10 as JJ was, they fail when their last year in college was a step backwards. Or they get to a professional system

and the protection is so bad that they just develop bad habits. Or there's no weapons to really rely on and so they they never really developed chemistry with anyone that they're throwing the ball to and and they never kind of reach their their ceiling or a bad coaching staff that just doesn't really know how to develop a guy and like you know other than the injury which impacted JJ last year,

none of that comes into play at all for McCarthy this year, because you have a proven, uh, you know, you know, now veteran, uh, system of coaches, uh, who are, who have, you know, they were able to develop on the fly, uh, two years ago as they were, you know, trying to struggle to backfill from the cousin's injury, um, they were able to take, you know, get Sam Donald to take a massive step forward last year with the development that they provided. And, uh, you know, you have now. A top on paper, at least a top 10, if not top five offensive line, you have on

paper, a top two, uh, you know, receiving room, uh room after Cincinnati, as far as I can tell you. And I think that the pieces are all in place for success here. And McCarthy actually, he did to me, at least in college, fit the right development arc for a guy who sits his first year. He does not have a ton of experience,

which is obviously a huge X factor because who knows what happens if the game is going too fast for him and he's just not ready. That's certainly a possibility. And I think by the time we get through mini camp and certainly by the time we get through the early portion of training camp, there will be signs if this is a bad bet. But just the way that they've rostered their backup quarterback situation and just the

fact that all of the other pieces are in place where this should be a successful outcome is enough for me to take an over on. And I thought that in college, McCarthy peaking to his national title championship was like that short of Jaden Daniels, who could not have finished his college career on a more impressive final chapter before moving on to the NFL. McCarthy was your second best kind of guy in the arc

of the process and the fact that there wasn't a huge kind of strange rookie year where people wanted to see him and they, you know, Darnold's not the long-term answer, let's kick the tires on McCarthy. As soon as McCarthy was out of the picture and there was no pressure on Darnold and the Vikings compiled a handful of wins, I think that was the correct chapter in his development to really help unlock things for him to take this next step forward.

O'Connell's system to me is a system that you're going to see more passing touchdowns just by default because of the you know the targets and when you're inside the 20 you know the ability to specifically get the ball to Hawkinson and and and jump Justin Jefferson and you know even more so should help juice your passing touchdown number and the that they play indoors this year, there's not a lot of bad weather games on the schedule for the Vikings this year. You have potentially a questionable weather game at the Browns. At the Packers is obviously a weird one.

And at the Giants and at the Steelers, those are your only four outdoor games that you really have to to be concerned about the conditions. So for me, at least this looks like a decent play on the over, but it's going to come in pretty close to that number, probably. I did not think of that, but they do have more home games than they do road games this year, which US Bank Stadium is actually the first time we ever talked was for an article where I wrote about like this does home field advantage still matter? And I believe your answer was

in some places it does. And I think we've really seen that at US Bank Stadium. And I'm still convinced had the NFL had different rules and the Vikings played their playoff game at home that I don't know if they would have won, but I think it would have gone differently for Sam Darnold rather than having to go on the road because he was so comfortable there. And we saw her cousins put up huge numbers year after year at US Bank Stadium. So you are getting a cheat code from the outset. Your number one wide receiver is either number one or number two in the NFL, depending on who you ask.

But that's a great place to start. Your coach has the QB Whisper title, and hey, who can deny that when you win 14 games with Sam Darnold and have him as a top 10 quarterback? And if I hadn't seen any JJ McCarthy with my own eyes, and I just had to go into this completely blind with no knowledge of what I saw on a daily basis in training camp last year, I would be saying,

hey man, I don't know. Like, he hasn't thrown a lot of passes, but I think that with that progress he made last year and how impressive it was, his work ethic, his leadership capabilities, that this is where the bar should be set for JJ McCarthy. I don't think we should be talking about it as, well, hey, if he could just sort of game manage.

You can't just game manage as the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings. And that would be the one thing that how do you go from when you were in college? You did mostly the game managing and then hey, go make a great play on third down to now. This is a different setup. Even if they got Jordan Mason, even if they got better run blockers, Kevin O'Connell is going to lead through the quarterback position and there is going to be a ton of pressure on JJ McCarthy.

Yeah. And if, again, like if there was a coaching staff that you had any inkling of questions about development, then the kind of the downside tale is maybe more obvious, right? But for me at least with sort of just again like 2 through 53 on this roster, assuming they address the safety position around one of the drafts, like this is a super team on paper. There are so many, so many talented players on both sides of the ball here and they're talented players at premium positions on both sides of the ball. So that's, yeah, to me, at least the blind spot in the market right now is, well, what

if he's good? And if that's the answer, then, you know, then making their win total kind of being in control of their own destiny and the N.O.C. Northfield is real to me. OK, so since you brought up the win total, I'll just ask you now, the one that was thrown out there was eight and a half.

I did an entire show talking about my opinions on that, which I think that there is a bar that is set much higher than that here. And even though there should be some patience for JJ McCarthy, I actually had a long discussion in the airport with Alec Lewis of the athletic when we were about to head back to Minnesota the other day about where we should actually set the bar for this team. I think if it's not double-digit wins with all the investment they made and

what you just said about the roster, which I completely agree with, that that would be a pretty huge disappointment. And so it is a lot that comes down to can JJ McCarthy drive this bus because this this bus has platinum wheels and golden windows. And it's a really nice bus. It's like a Ferrari bus to drive. And so I think that when you move on from a Sam Darnold and you do not sign an Aaron Rodgers, like a very win right now quarterback, then your decision, your guy, he has to win right now. And you have to be in that conversation come January.

Yeah, and we as football analysts, I think, get a little hung up on the quarterback position and the value and the importance and all that. But to me, at least the Vikings have a couple of paths to double digit ones, right? If JJ McCarthy is good, but to me that more that unlocks like another 14 mid season. That's not that's not they're just speaking across the line and getting nine. That is that is the you know, the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow of a word. Now we are realistically pursuing a championship on this quarterbacks rookie deal type of upside. The median outcome is like you said, like, you know, hey, we're winning games, you know, he's going to make his mistakes. Maybe it

takes him till about mid mid point the season for the game to slow down for him. Guess what you have? Well rostered to deal with that. A defense that can hold your opponents to 17 points. Like you're not really going to have to ask him to do a whole heck of a lot over the first half of the season to still get wins. Now, is this team going to be potentially like a little bit, just overrated by market in terms of like

what the spreads will be? I mean, maybe, is it gonna come down to, just being able to execute around the margins, get a couple of turnovers, you lean on your special teams to make their field goals, like, or are you going to kind of find fledgling success and score into the low twenties while you're keeping your opponents in the 17th is going to kind of determine one way or the other. If they're a bet on week in week out, but, um, I still think that in general, this is not a, especially scary schedule outside of your NFC North head to heads in general. I think the fact that the other NFC North teams in particular, your, your Alliance have taken a massive step backwards with that coaching system

dissolving with, you know, both coordinators getting head coaching jobs and taking other pieces with them is, is being a little under covered and under reported or at least under considered. And I think the Vikings, again, like this to me on paper, even with a couple of injuries to key players, there's depth and there's first, there's frontline talent and there's depth across this defense. And I think what Brian Flores did last year

with the pieces that they put in place was extremely impressive. And I would expect that at least the same level of performance, if not a step forward from the unit with the investments they made in Rogers Hargrave and Alan. So here is a hold up for me. A little bit of a hold up is the schedule. And then we mentioned that they get a lot of home games,

but some of those home games are against like Lamar Jackson. They do have a pretty tough, and I know opposing schedule is something that I've sort of made fun of through the years. It's like, come on guys, we don't know an opposing schedule strength. However, when the opposing teams have Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jaylen Hertz,

I think I could say that's gonna be pretty tough and then the division as well. That would be my one holdup. Now not for eight and a half to me if it goes Below eight and a half that something went really wrong for your team That's a quarterback injury that even with a quarterback injury I would still say this roster should at least win nine games But as far as just the schedule goes how much does that play into? your evaluation of what they can be?

Well, you're correct in that the opponents even, you know, the venue is favorable for your toughest opponents. Eagles, commanders, Ravens were, you know, those were among the best teams in football last year, but they're all coming to you. Bengals, you know, is one of the better quarterbacks in football. He's coming to you, right? Like that, that, that is probably where things are on the positive side. And then, you know, the question marks and the negative, there's not a lot of easy wins, but they're not, there are not a lot of easy wins in football nowadays, period, unless you're, you know, existing in the AFC, NFC South. And in general, the matchups against the teams that would cause you concern, I think you've done a good job, at least, of putting together a roster that directly

combats the tougher parts of this schedule. So sequencing will be fascinating to see once we know exactly what order they plan. And, you know, like when and where do you draw the Browns will be a fun one, right? Like, is that early in the season before the weather gets terrible? Like that's, and or is that early in the season before JJ is comfortable with a violent pass rush? Right? Like, you know, like is Darasaw 100% healthy to in the season before JJ is comfortable with a violent pass rush? Right? Like, you know, like is, is Darasaw 100% healthy to start the season going up against Viles Garrett?

Like, you know, like that, that's kind of, that's going to be fascinating sequence wise because otherwise the Browns looks like a nice soft spot. I'm not especially high on the likes of the Cowboys and, and certainly not the, the Falcons and the Giants and the Steelers and the Seahawks. Those look like you're gonna be solid favorites even though three of those four are on the road. So it's really kind of a matter of how do you match up against the elite quarterbacks on your schedule, which include Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Hertz, and Daniels.

And then everybody else to me at least has enough questions about what's going on with either the franchise as far as their arc or the quarterback or soft spots on the defense still that you can prey on. So I think the elite quarterbacks are going to be the fun tests that sort of prove whether this Vikings team is, what to expect out of them in the playoffs if they get there. But as far as an eight and a half, you know, win total, I think you're getting a depressed number just because of the names on the schedule. All right. Let me transition into a different topic, which is the draft.

Now, the Vikings do not have sexy picks. They are not the ones that are leading any of the headlines on NFL Network or ESPN Draft Shows with the 24th overall selection. Would you bet that the Vikings stick and pick at 24th overall? Or do you think that we'll be wasting our time on the first night of the draft

and setting up for day two after a trade down? Which way would you bet that? That's trading down with the lions, right? No, I think, you know, in seriousness, a pick and stick or a trade, just a small slide down wouldn't surprise me. But I also say like, the way that the landscape is from a macro standpoint in the draft is people think 15 to 40, landscape is from a macro standpoint in the draft is people think 15 to 40. Not a huge, not a huge Delta, right? A lot of positional depth there across kind of a key, um, you know, key weak points in the league in terms of talent.

So you have a lot to choose from to sort of populate the part of your roster you want to address in that range. So I think it's going to be a little bit of a soft trademark it for the first round. Once we get out of say the top 10, maybe the top 15, and it may be a pretty quiet, like there's just not enough, you're not getting enough to slide down a few spots to make it worth their while so they may stay ultimately and take that pick at 24.

As I look at their roster, it's been very obvious, free agency, the name of the game was address the trenches, Um, as I look at their roster, it's been very obvious for agency. The, the name of the game was address the trenches, um, which to me means that addressing the trenches would be unlikely. Um, and, uh, when you kind of look at, well, what would make sense then certainly secondary, um, there's not a lot of you be cornerbacks that you could potentially start and play on day one, day one with this group, but there are some absolute outstanding athletes at safety and it's tough to find fits for

the elite safeties. And so I kind of am right now in the mindset that they are set up pretty perfectly to potentially take the best safety out of the class and have him either available as the kind of heir apparent to Harrison Smith or be a guy that you can kind of slide into the mix to be part of your starting five in your secondary on day one. So that would be my general guess if they surprise and take a shot at someone on the offensive side of the ball.

My guess is it would be some interior offensive lineman just to backstop because you did, you know, you bring in two nice pieces with Kelly and particularly Wilfries, but you know, those the depth there may be something that they're a little bit conscientious of. Oh, it's pronounced fries as an offensive lineman. Isn't that right? I had to check with multiple people. I'm like, is this as great as I think is fries? And they're like, yeah, it is.

That's awesome. I mean, if you're a lineman, you can't be will freeze. You got to be will fries. Let's go. So I think safety is a great pick for the Vikings at 24, because if Malakai starts, they also might like Nick, uh, M and war, a, those two guys in particular stand way out. And I think there's draft philosophy is so interesting to try to pin down because somebody mentioned to me at the owner's meetings, like, yeah, everybody loves the trade down.

The analytics people love the trade down. However, if there is a top 15 talent on their board, not on Mel Kiper's board or whoever else is bored of the outside of their board that drops to 24, which what are the odds? The odds are decent that that happens then they're just going to take that player because I think what we've realized about quasi-adaphal MENSA is just because the outside analytics people thinks a certain way analytically about drafting

or team building or whatever, doesn't mean that he as an analytics central person just agrees with all of it. Like he's, all analytics people aren't just the same nerd, right? Like this could be a different nerd. And I think what we saw from last year when everyone was shocked by the trade up to get Dallas Turner, I asked him about that on this podcast. He came on and he said, like a lot of times in sports

and in basketball is a good example. It's like your best players are the ones that are driving your success and you can find other players. You can find a fill-in corner like Isaiah Rogers in free agency and feel pretty good about that guy. You cannot find Justin Jefferson outside the first round.

It just doesn't happen. And so Jefferson would also be an example or a Christian Derisov top 15 talent, slid down the board for whatever reason. The Vikings grab him, they turn into superstars. You're looking for the same thing. I think Melikai Starks is a great potential pick for them. He kind of has some early Harrison Smith vibe to him

as like an all around football player. The one position on offense would be left guard. And I also think just philosophically, the back end of the first round is a great place to get the non-premium position, but get the best player. So you might take the best guard in the entire draft, whether it's Booker or whether it's Gray's Abel who's projecting as a guard.

And they have to consider that as well, because you mentioned, hey, they could have a top five line. What if it's even better? Like, right? I mean, if you're Kevin O'Connell, you just gotta be like, anything to help JJ McCarthy is a good thing. I like the Gray's Abel shout.

Would expect he'll be available and would be fascinating to see him as a potential, you know, kind of a good culture fit, plug and play kind of a guy if they need him and or just a guy that can help provide some depth and step into a role in the future. But yeah, the, they are, you know, there are a handful of teams that are kind of in that range of 20 to 28, I would say, who have pretty clear, you know, kind of clear, they've given themselves sort of the perfect opportunity to plug holes with the lead talent in that range, which looks pretty, you know, the Vikings are the most obvious of those. So give me your give me your like your big three,

like four positions if you were if they were going to stick and pick. What's your top three that you would bet on? Yes, safety, interior, line and tackle. Tackle. There's some good, there's some really good tackles. Oh, to move to maybe to move to guard though, right? Like yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah.

Okay. Oh, I see what you mean. Okay. Well, that still counts. It can either be a swing or yeah, or a guard. Yeah. Okay. That's cheating.

That's both. That's also guard. Okay. Well, if it's going to be somebody completely off the radar or a surprise, to me at least yeah there's there's some cornerbacks who could be available in that range like a Baron or or someone along those lines who might be a nice nickel for you. I like you picking our audience who is obsessed with guards and they should be will appreciate will appreciate you going guard and guard as you're number two and three. I think I would also say corner as the number three.

Defensive Tackle is the wild card because the two guys they got are short-term options for them as opposed to longer term. And what you know, as well as I do about Defensive Tackles is they don't hit the free agent market if they're great. Their teams extend them to huge contracts. They're hard to go find as you could see by how much money they had to spend on these two guys who are both on the other side of their primes. Let's, uh, let's just talk, continue with the draft a little bit here.

Um, random draft bets. I want to hear from you. Well, first I want to hear about the sugar Sanders thing, because this is like all over the place, what people think about him. But also give me some stuff that's just on your mind randomly with interesting bets you might make on the draft. The drama feels a little light this year. Kind of looks like we kind of know what's going to happen. And so it's going to be

tough not to get overconfident and just fire into huge negative numbers and then get surprised when things don't quite break your way. But the 1.01 of Camp Ward to Tennessee now just feels done. I don't think that there's really much, you know, there's not really any getting too cute crystal balling like, well, what if they're just doing all this for this reason? I that's to me, at least the either the offers that they were going to get to come up were not good enough, or they've themselves just decided that they are, you know, they are they have the next Pat Moves on their hands or for whatever reason. I don't see it, but good luck to them. So Cam Ward going one to the Titans looks like a done deal.

The Browns are a little bit of an enigma, but I do not think that they are in the Chidora Sanders ball game at all. In fact, you know, Gird your lines for a week one at Cleveland, where you're taking on your old friend Kirk Cousins and the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland. But that to me at least enough whispers of that is going to happen. I've heard from enough random places that I think that's just going to happen. So Chidora Sanders would be a very surprising choice at second for them and I think they're more like a day two, day three project a quarterback kind of a team at this point. So, let's say they take best player available on their board. I've heard from enough teams that are like

one with a bullet on Hunter that it wouldn't shock me if they are in that same boat and they've just been very quiet about it but at the same time I don't ignore stuff like Schefter going pretty publicly and loud with them being a team that's interested in Abdul Carter so it'll be one of those two. At price I would take a shot on Hunter because there are some big numbers out there and to me at least when you look at their strengths and weaknesses it's like why wouldn't you take Hunter exactly but we'll see ultimately what they do. The Giants are a fun one because I would be actually in the last six seven days

it feels like coach and GM thrown a boy flag a little bit. Like the tank may be on for 2025, which is sad if you're a Giants fan, but when you're looking at their quarterback situation and what they could get out of this draft or what, and what they do have, uh, as far as available options, doesn't look like winning football to me. options doesn't look like winning football to me. And so they're in the Arch Manning Tankathon maybe, which is kind of a sad state of affairs but it is what it is. As far as where their strengths are on the D-line, taking Abdul Carter feels like an extreme abundance of riches for not a lot of gain. Whereas Travis Hunter would fit them kind of ideally, I think so. Hunter to the Giants would make the most sense,

but if he's gone to the Browns, do they take Abdul Carter or do they find a trade partner would be sort of the key question. Let's assume that they just stick and pick Carter then the Patriots find themselves in the tight spot because they're obviously not taking quarterback and the two best down quarterbacks are gone. They do need help at offensive line obviously so whether they take them forth or whether they trade down and take an offensive lineman is a fun

question but I don't know that you have a trade partner coming up Necessarily for anything at four. So let's assume the Patriots pick and stick an offensive lineman there don't have a strong read whether it's the Missouri kid or the LSU kid, but It'll be a tackle of some sort the Overwhelming buzz is that the Michigan D tackle Graham is going to the Jags at five. That's probably maybe the only after a camp ward to the Titans, the only high confidence thing I could tell you about bedding draft at this point. And it's just because they have a big teardrop, I think between Carter, Hunter and Graham

and then anyone else. And they are almost certainly drafting a defensive player. I found the comments by Rayners GM on Gentie somewhat interesting because saying that and then doing something completely different would be fun and interesting but Spitech, you know, effectively tipping his hand I guess a little bit on Gent. He makes that make more sense that everybody's mocking him. They're six and so I'm not interested in going against a huge sentiment that they take a running back sixth and then I think the Jets take a tackle seventh is almost that's a that's a healthy certainty and from the buzz that I've heard they like the Texas Kid Banks as their their key target there at number seven. Well, Banks initially before the combine was one of those guys that, as you said, tackles who could move to guard.

I was like, oh, look at this one. And then he goes to the combine like, OK, just check that off the list. He looks way too good at football. That happened. And then and then even for a minute, I had a minute with Will Campbell's tiny little arms. Sure. Wait, what if Will Campbell and his tiny little arms made people drop him and the Vikings and then none of his arms are not as tiny as they were made out.

When you when you talk about a lack of drama in a draft, one of the biggest storylines are is his arms 32 and a fourth or 33 and a third? Like this is this is as boring as it gets. And with Cheddar Sanders, I have wondered if after some of the combine stuff, if it's and Jackson Dart anytime. You can tell me what it says historically, because maybe you've looked at it closer than I have. The Vikings have only seriously looked at quarterbacks, the draft one year. It was last year.

So I know that one, but not necessarily all drafts. I think it's always hard to predict. But a lot of times, if guys aren't ranked at the very, very top, they don't go there. Like, even if some people mock them there, that's the Malik Willis theory where some people were mocking Willis number two, but the consensus board had a more like in the later half of the first, which we just don't see a ton of quarterbacks taken in that later half of the first. So I always think if some people are saying he's here, but some people are saying he's way over

there, he's more close to be way over there than he is at the very, very top. I agree. And I would say there's been sort of soft secondary evidence that's backed that up. I guess number one, when tastemakers who are evaluating talent are kind of consistently not putting you in the top 10, I'm not sure people with their jobs on the line

are necessarily risking them to take you top 10. Number two, the kind of rotating cast of mediocre quarterbacks that we've seen throughout the NFL National Ruby Agency is kind of signaling to me that everybody's just gonna kick the can down the road a year and hope that some better quarterbacks are available next year. And then the real

smoking gun that there's a soft market for Sanders, camps from Sanders camp, specifically, where coming into the process they were very much, we're going to pick our destination and now their tune is very, we'll go anywhere. Oh, so you get it. So, you know, that that pivot to me is pretty tough. I read it the same way because when Dion, I and I've only vaguely followed this, but like I saw something where Dion said he wouldn't be involved in his son's career and I was like, I saw something where Dion said he wouldn't be involved in his son's career. And I was like, okay, they're scared. Yeah, there's because why else it reminded me of when I don't know if you remember this when Johnny Manziel did some it was either an interview where he wrote a

letter or something about how I'm the the best quarterback. You're going to regret not taking me all the stuff and it's like, oh Johnny's hearing that he's not going to be drafted that high because why else would you be this desperate? Usually the top draft pick is pretty cocky about it. And I think we've kind of seen that a little bit from Cam Ward and so forth. So let me, sorry, go ahead. No, I think you're absolutely right. The, that he had guys like Will Lovis even like, or if you're telling everybody that would listen, he was going to go first overall. I'm like, huh?

Okay, good luck, man. Yeah, that quarterback is, it's always hard. I think, I feel like I'm the draft analyst, but if they're split, it probably is going the wrong way for that quarterback. Let me just get some NFC North thoughts here, because what a fascinating division to be in. Every team has its reason to talk about how they could win it and be great and

have 13 wins and every team also has a reason to go but if this happens they won't. So let's talk about the Chicago Bears first. Would you bet the Bears to win more than nine National Football League contests? I would not. And this feels like the I don't know what fifth, sixth year in a row that Bears under was sort of like, so there's like a two-game tax on the Bears for some reason. What? But I mean, it's not that they're like going to be bottom feeders. They'll probably improve on their record from last year. Probably I wouldn't be I would be surprised if Ben

Johnson's and positive culture change ultimately, for what they want to do there. But there's still massive issues with this roster. And, you know, the their attempts to plug holes with free agency, you know, I don't, I don't say I don't think at least that there was really any move that they made, or any player that they brought in who really moved the needle all that much for any of their key and obvious weaknesses. Nice players in a day. Oh, I'd be in bow a nice player and, uh, and drew Dalman and Joe Dooney, but you know, these, they are paying premium for guys that are just okay.

And, uh, I think Caleb Williams to me is a longer development fuse than anyone realizes even still. Ben Johnson may ultimately be able to do something magical, but to me at least this is more of like a 2026 type of roster with the way that they still have a lot of holes to address. Yeah, count me a little bit cool on the Bears, particularly at that number. I think so, too. And if you're weighing Ben Johnson's potential impact

on Caleb Williams, I do think it could be significant. They'll certainly run the ball well. I mean, you get Dahlman, you get Jonah Jackson, Joe Tooney, like you're going to run the ball pretty well. And maybe they are an Ashton Gentile team. I don't know. But is he ready to be the superstar that was promised? I'm not sure you go from getting sacked 68 times to just being like, great. Now we saw from I hate to reference this guy just because of how it went.

But like Deshaun Watson, when he first came into the league, he was Mr. Gitz act every other play. And it took two or three years to smooth that out. Or even if you're looking at when we talk about raw players, I don't think he was I don't think Caleb was talked about as raw as he truly was coming out. It's almost in some ways it's not exactly the same because he had great college statistics.

But like Josh Allen had this same sort of problem of Being super erratic when he came in and I look at Williams is when we saw him the first time Vikings at Bears he was terrific. I was like wow they're gonna have problems for years the second time We saw him he was a disaster Couldn't see the field at all was getting hit left and right by his own doing. It was like, oh, I guess that's how it's gonna be. And I don't think that's something where you just go click and all of a sudden

he is a different person, even with a new offensive coordinator. So I like what you're saying about, you know, going on the underside of this. And I really think that it's the Bears' popularity and hype they always get talked about endlessly that pushes up their number and the enthusiasm for them. But you look at the defensive side.

Okay, you got Jalen Johnson. He's a great corner. And that's Khalil back didn't come back to me. No, you know how you scheme against the Bears? Throw it away from Jaylen Johnson. Right. Good job. Mission accomplished. But no, it's going to, I think you're talking about at a minimum a year of sort of unwinding

Caleb to start to build them up. And I don't know that, I don't know exactly why Ben Johnson desperately wanted this job, it seems like. He kind of could have had his pick, but this is the one he wanted. Okay, good luck. The the the if there's like kind of an overall space of quarterbacks in their traits, I don't know that you can find any two that are further apart than golfers. Just in terms of like what they do well, where their ratios are, like if you are expecting to bring in your kind of your system, your

playbook and implement it with this player, it is going to be growing pains. I would just think almost surely. Right. If you were making a car comparison, like Jared golf is the AI bot car that you program and it drives and occasionally it just runs over a person. Then you didn't want to do that when where Caleb Williams is no brakes goes 140 miles an hour, though, and the power steering doesn't work. So you have no control over that thing whatsoever. And I agree with you that I think it would take probably an entire season of work for him. I still

think he will be a really good quarterback. It just takes time and he probably will never be the quarterback that they hyped him to be. And I also think that just going back, if you were doing full objective analysis, if he had not been the promised number one pick the whole time and you looked at Daniels and you looked at Drake May, I don't think the best argument was for actually Caleb Williams. And I remember talking a little bit with people about that last year just like I think the best argument is probably for Daniels

or Drake May based on what they've actually done in their last season in college. But anyway, that's too much bears. How about? Teams that tend to matter lions and Packers? Teams that tend to matter. Lions and Packers. If I had to tell you one of them will miss the postseason, but I didn't tell you which one, which one is it, is it the lions or the bears?

Or I'm sorry, the Packers. We know the Bears. Yeah, I think it was the one that was desperately trying to get the rules changed so that they could maybe have a home game when they don't win the NFC North. And that's the Detroit Lions. I don't know. Between the two of them, more likely to miss as the Packers just in terms of the strength of the roster. But the team that I'm more interested in being against relative to market is the Lions.

People are really still very high on this Lions team and they may make, I kind of thought, I kind of expected like, hey, you get Hutchinson back, they're going to make some nice moves in the free agency. They're going to, you know, they're going to actually have a decent-ish draft pick. Like the Lions defense could surprise people next year, but I didn't really like anything that they did in the off season as far as their free agency moves. And I think losing Aaron Glenn is going to hurt this squad. Almost certainly. He coached up a lot of positions in the linebacking core and in the secondary. And I'm giving him credit and who knows if it was him or

other players on that staff. But they got a lot more out of linebacking and safety position than I thought was realistic given the talent there. And if they take a meaningful step backwards with, uh, now I, uh, um, you know, defensive coordinator, Kelvin Shepherd, who I will put my hand up, I know nothing about, um, then I won't be surprised, um, because that's just sort of the way these things go. When you have guys who are overperforming and then the coordinator walks out the door, like they tend to come back to earth.

So just from like a player rating and skills, you know, still skill evaluation standpoint, you know, the defense, which you I think you needed to kind of help step up and backstop any type of backwards step for your franchise. It doesn't seem like they made the right moves to make that happen. Offensive lines getting older, golf to me looks like a candidate for regression in the absence of Ben Johnson calling the plays. My favorite kind of angle of attack there would be probably golf interceptions leader this year.

Very interested in seeing where that market opens up because he has a propensity to get a little bit spray charity with the ball when you know when things aren't as well structured and there's certainly not going to be perfectly well structured from the get-go here. So Lions taking a big old step backwards is I think the expectation this year, reasonable expectation. And while the Packers still are probably good enough, probably well-coached enough, probably talented enough at the right places to be in the mix for a playoff spot, I would still think that there's some issues with what's going on with this team and. With all the data we've got, I think. You are not going to get a high confidence answer from anyone who handicaps

the NFL on whether or not Jordan loves it again. Yeah, yeah, that's the thing about Jordan Love is that when we look at just and I think about this in terms of the distribution of his performances and how because they were so perfectly packaged in his first year of bad Jordan love, good Jordan love. We just assume like, oh, bad Jordan love is fake and good Jordan love is real because it was packaged so nicely for us. But I remember saying if you had scattered those into three good games, two bad games, three good games, two bad games, we would talk totally differently about him

as a very erratic player, because that was really who he was supposed to be when he was coming out. And I think that's what we saw last year from him is he's just an erratic player. And a lot of it is live or die on whether they catch those deep shots or the other team catches those deep shots down the field.

That we saw a lot of that when he played the Vikings these few times is the first time they ever played him. The Vikings caught the ball when he threw it deep. The second time they played him, his guys caught the ball when he threw it deep. And I also think too, that coaches like Matt Lafleur, they like to. Went early with a quarterback. They like to, okay, a quarterback, they like to, okay, we're gonna run play actions,

we're gonna run screens, and we're just going to lay it out for you. But a coach of that talent does not like to keep it that way for all that long, right? They wanted to work in progressions of steps. Okay, first I'm gonna baby step you, and then you want to become the full complete quarterback. And Jared Goff never becoming the full complete quarterback and Jared

Goff never becoming the full complete quarterback for Sean McVeigh drove him crazy and he went and got Matthew Stafford so he could do all the stuff he's been drawing up in his basement that's really why he did it right he's like well you know Goff can't make this throw so I'm gonna go get Matthew Stafford to make it for me and that worked with the Super Bowl but I think you even see some of those limitations with golf when push comes to shove of why McVeigh would feel that way. And I think with love,

it's not can he make all those throws, it's can he be the consistent, complete quarterback who can drop back, straight drop back, no play action, no screen, throw intermediate pass accurately after intermediate pass. We have not seen that at all from him, which to me always says you're a 10 and 17 if that's how it's going to go and that's kind of what I think of the Packers is that their coach

is so good and their defense is pretty talented that they can't they're not going to be horrible. The guy won games with Malik Willis, but like they're I think they're a little bit capped on how great they can be especially since they do not have a Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase on their squad. Yeah, I think that's really well said. And I would point to the Vikings as like we talked about it just a little bit a little while ago. If their quarterback is inconsistent, it takes a little time to get warmed up,

to get into the groove. They have a very, very, very talented defense to backstop them. The Packers do not. They are a very, very, meh defensive team. And the Jordan Love question is like, it is so confounding to try to square like his first half numbers

with his second half numbers in games. Like, wait, like, okay. You know what, you know, I know about Matt floor. I think he could put together a pretty good game script. I think he's a pretty good offensive mind. Why in the world is Jordan love, like a Gardner Minshew in the first half and a Josh Allen in the second half, like the disparity between his EPA, his CPOE is so humongous just from half to half and a lot of his best performances, a lot

of the takeaways where you're just like, wow, top five guy. It's just like, well they were down in the game against a better team and then in the second half when it was like a little bit of backyard ball He just exploded and he hit the high leverage Not repeatable not expecting not not really some stuff you can count on the you know The bombs to Christian Watson who also himself is not a you know A guy you can count on from a health standpoint is you know, like okay Well, you make those, you know kind of plays like that, and it gives people a higher sense of your floor when we've seen his floor, and it is not high.

And so I'm definitely buyer viewer on the Packers. And I mean, LaFleur is a good enough coach that maybe he does get something more out of him, something more consistent out of him this year. Maybe he just changes his system to put more stuff that happens to work with what love wants to do. Like, um, I dunno, run back the game plan you had in the wild card game against the Cowboys, right? Like get them comfortable early and then just rip the face off teams.

Like that's the, if that's what you want to do, do that. Um, but, uh, you know, the, the Packers are, are kind of, I mean, all of these teams are fascinating, I guess, except the Bears. But, uh, yeah, I mean, maybe they're, maybe they're interesting too. Maybe they do surprise, but, um, but yeah, like you can tell me this year we're headed for a time and a place after 13 weeks where Jordan Love is being talked about as an MVP candidate. You could have, you can tell me this year we're headed for a time and a place after 13 weeks where Jordan Love is being talked about as an MVP candidate. You can tell me that by the end of this year, we're literally like, wow, well, what are the Packers going to do for quarterback next year? Because it's not going to be Jordan Love. And I would be equally unsurprised by either outcome. That the funniest thing about Jordan Love is that the comparison form, when you look at it kind of on paper, is so far from what you would ever think.

But it's kind of Kirk Cousins where Kirk Cousins, I always said he started the fire and then tried to put the fire out in the second half. So he got them behind 10 points by not getting them ahead early and then had to have the game winning drive or the comeback and he would rack up a lot of numbers that looked amazing at the end of the game where you like wait 347 and three touchdown like that looks really good. But why did I not feel like that was really oh because they

were playing from behind in the second half and then you had to hope that he came through and the other thing is to that both coaches try to mitigate this by running too much. And that's exactly what now O'Connell didn't do that. But that's what Mike Zimmerer and Gary Kubiak and Kevin Stefanski and Clint Kubiak all did was like, what if we just try to run all the time and then limit how much damage he can do to us and then kind of come through later? Like that's sort of what they were trying to do last year with way too much running from Josh Jacobs on early downs. Now, this has been a tremendous conversation as always, but

one thing we've left on the table, Drew, is any kind of ridiculousness. We've been rational. We've been normal. And you know, years past, I feel like I've tried to get you to be silly season. So I'll throw one out there. Ridiculous bets that possibly make sense. Now the use of possibly very liberal. Okay.

So any pot that was your Kyler Murray to the Vikings was like, maybe I will actually stay in Kyler Murray's backyard. And I'm going to say that the Arizona Cardinals win their division. That's going to be my ridiculous bet that possibly makes sense. I think Matthew Stafford's a hundred and is just maybe bound someday to be bad. And, uh, cause you know, last year the playoffs made him against the Vikings, made him look better than I think his season was And Seattle and pretty made across the board. I like their coach. I think he could have learned a little bit from last year.

I like this. Some of their low-key additions that we didn't make a big deal of. They've got a decent draft pick. I'm going to say that's my ridiculous bet that possibly makes sense is that Arizona takes the step forward in a division. That's kind of everybody's everybody's average. Yeah, everybody's average and everybody has weaknesses.

And certainly the jury is out on whether the Niners have done too much damage to themselves to be competitive. And you know, whether the the young defense for the Rams was real the last year or fake. So, yeah, I take absolutely no exception to that. And you're going to get a good price on that. OK, what do you got? You got you got some ridiculousness, you got some silliness. Let's get even more ridiculous.

OK, go crazy. Go nuts. Let's say let's just stick with the Vikings. Oh, what does it take to get a young man who got consideration last year got a first place vote last year for defensive player of the year to take down the entire market? And that is Mr. Andrew Van Ginkle. Who is... Who got that? Did you know he got a first place vote for VP last year? I did not. When you said... I actually thought you meant Grenard when you said that.

Because Grenard had top three in pressures. Van Ginkle did have two pick sixes. He had two picks, two touch, two interceptions, two touchdowns. But in general was a guy whose name was just being called in all of the high leverage moments it felt like whenever the Viking defense was doing something good. Now it's going to take a lot to run down. This is a word that typically goes to the cream of the crop

and but I think what's useful to kind of recognize is Bang Akele moved himself into the conversation last year and he's going to have to have some similar absurd high leverage stuff happen. Um, but I think he's on an even better defense and, uh, you know, a guy like Pat Surtain wins last year because everybody got to the end of the year and they're like, gosh, which defenses are actually good? I guess the Broncos are actually good. That's cause of Pat Surtain. So we're going to give it to him, right? Like that's kind of how this

unravels for Van Ginkle. But again, like maybe I'm kind of the last one to the fair price party here on what this Vikings defense is going to be this year. But to me, this is rostered perfectly for them to be even better and to be the kind of the standout unit. And if things go right on the offensive side of the ball and they're winning 14-ish games and they clearly stand out as the best defense, then I could see a very, very clearly see a universe where a VG is the guy that is the totem. You know, the the recipient of the credit

for that, if he's got the big splash place. I mean, if he ends up with like 10 sacks, three picks, four picks, something like that. I mean, maybe, right, because you'd be talking about him as this freak. And he last year, putting his name in that conversation, then everyone started to talk about how many things he does. Oh, you come all over the place. He lies over here and he's got the long hair and he's really easy to spot out there.

And, you know, I I don't I don't think it's the craziest thing with the improvements on the interior D line, which should make life easier for Jonathan Grenard and Andrew Van Ginkle in a theoretical world. I think if I was going to go, what would I go with ridiculous Vikings bet? I might go, is it, maybe it is not ridiculous enough to say, could a head coach win coach of the year two years in a row? The answer is probably not. I don't think it's possible. I think that everyone is always looking for who to give it to the new head coach.

That's probably it. I don't think Justin Jefferson is going to ever get to MVP level because they just won't do it. It's always going to be a quarterback. I don't know if I've got a great one for the Vikings that's really off the board. Off the top of your head, do you remember how many sacks AVG had last year? I don't know if I've got a great one for the Vikings. That's really off the board. Off the top of your head, do you remember how many sacks ABG had last year? 11. 11 and a half.

11 and a half. 11 and a half sacks. Crazy, he was an all pro second team. Like he's already in, he's in the mind's eye as the credit share guy for what was a very good defense last year that could be a great defense this year. So I don't know. I like it.

I like it. Granada is a fun one too. I mean, actually, like, like the, the, the defense overall, like, and the way they created pressure and the talent that they have available, like, it's, it is tough to say that one guy is going to ultimately, you know, get enough county stats on his own to to launch into this conversation but uh yeah I think I think um fewest points allowed is the market that sometimes pops and Vikings would be a fun one there because again like you mentioned they're playing a ton of elite quarterbacks like people may be a little bit uh you know kind of looking too hard at schedule for that instead of just in general trying to price the defense correctly and um yeah Kevin O'Connell may be in kind of a uh like let's play a little slower let's like you know a little bit a little bit of ball control um not put uh our rookie our young quarterbacks back against

the wall too often um which could help with that as well so um fewest points market as a super alliter for the Vikings is gonna be pretty, pretty fun to price. I think anything in like the 15 to one range would be a fun bet. Maybe I would throw out there TJ Hawkinson to lead all tight ends and receptions because JJ McCarthy, that's gonna be a security blanket

to throw underneath and just one that might seem a little ridiculous, but I think is also possible that coach of the year Dave Canales in Carolina that is a pretty mid division. I mean, I like I like panics a lot and I love their weapons So I think the panics probably should win that division if they were willing to completely like Kirk Cousins on fire and Even just to come out and be like no, he's just not even good enough to be our starter. I think it does show confidence in Penix, not even we're going to have a competition. Like, no, he's just not our starter.

Oh, like, oh, okay. That's pretty serious. But the way Bryce Young played in the second half of the season, I don't think anyone cared about Carolina. They had the worst defense. You can make an argument forever in terms of yards allowed. And if they just improve that to being okay and they win at nine or 10 games and they win that division and Bryce Young is really good.

Dave Canales is going to get a ton of attention for coach of the year. And a lot of times it's not the coach that wins the most games in a season. It's the one where they're like, oh, a guy that we just didn't think of before the season. Yeah, that makes sense to me. He's he's your fourth, fifth choice right now. 16 to one ish. Some of these other names that you can pretty much scratch off immediately. Ben Johnson, Liam, Liam Cohen. I think he's a scratch up as well, even though he has Trevor Lawrence, the Jags in my opinion, aren't going to make enough of a step forward. Sean Payton's your fourth choice that's a

scratch. Mike Frable and the Patriots probably finished second in the EA if they win ten games which Strikme is good enough to do then Frable should be your favorite. I like it. Alright well we were only mildly ridiculous I feel like we had a useful rationale. You want to know what the price is on Andrew Van Ginkle? Let's find it. Now that's ridiculous. Yeah. 100 to one. I mean, okay.

For a guy that got a first place vote last year. You know. I've heard crazier things. Five bucks. Drew Dinsick, Whale Capper on Twitter, one of the great Twitter names of all time. And NBC Sports Bet, one of my favorite people of all time, one of the great mains of any guest I've ever had.

And so that's how you keep getting brought back. So we'll definitely do it again at some point. It seems like another great, like late June podcast to circle back on what these were and see where we stand. But always appreciate you, man. You were my favorite guest to bring on and we will definitely do it again soon absolutely and enjoy the draft cycle and uh can't wait to hear how mini camp goes for our young man jj manari yeah imagine a world where

we can't wait for mini camp well we can't all right thanks much drew and thanks everybody for watching