Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - NFL Network's Pelissero: 'Smart money' is on Darnold staying. Agree?

Episode Date: January 18, 2025

Matthew Coller and Manny Hill break down Tom Pelissero's report on the Vikings QB situation and an article by Joel Corry, former NFL agent, laying out the Vikings options. Plus, who's gonna win this weekend? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with Manny Hill on our first Thursday night without a Vikings game for Manny to pick. It is a tough day for all of us. Manny, it was such a joy this year to have you on Monday's pick the schedule, then give your pick for the game on Thursday. We do the breakdown. We've still got underdog fantasy,

but it's not the same without the Vikings players to pick for the games. But as we always have done, Manny, we carry on into off season discussion. It is here. It has arrived and playoff conversation as well. And we have a lot to talk about. So I have brought some reading material to the show today from Joel Corey and from what Tom Palacero said on KFAN.

And I think that's probably the best place to start because that's the headline of the show. And then a couple of comments from Kwesi Adafomensa that our friend Jonathan Harrison pulled for me. So why don't we begin, Manny? I'm going to read you a quote from Tom Pelissero, who you know well, who I know well from NFL Network, formerly worked at the same station that we formerly worked at. Uh, and, uh, he was on K fan today and Tom Pelissero said, I transcribed the quote. He said, I would, I would say that the smart money is on Sam Darnold being back in Minnesota. If anything, what happened in those last two games might make it simpler to get it back, to get him back. And then he said, no, they're not trading JJ McCarthy. And his last comment, he said, these are complicated types of things. The fact that for 15 games, Darnold looked like he was playing at a borderline MVP level. And then these last two games, you'd say he was the bad Sam Darnold. It definitely complicates things.

But the most logical outcome for both parties is Sam Darnold coming back. The question is whether they can get a deal done or if they use the tag. So our good pal, Mr. Palacero dialed in in the NFL talking with some level of confidence that he believes Sam Darnold will be back. Even though I think the consensus goes the completely opposite direction about what the vikings will do so would the smart money as tom said be on sam darnold coming back manny

i think that yeah i mean i i think there's a pretty good chance that sam could still come back um and to tom's point you know the the fact that Sam really played horribly the last two games of the season, Detroit and then obviously the playoff game this past Monday night, I think to his point can kind of make things maybe a little bit easier in terms of maybe Sam's value has been, has gone down a little bit based off the last couple of games. And we talk about this a lot. People watch playoff games, and a lot of times they make determinations. Teams will sometimes make determinations off of what they saw in the postseason from a specific quarterback.

Certainly a lot of Vikings fans have made their decision already on Sam Darnold based off of what we saw in detroit and in arizona um so i i think there's you know because of that i think there's a decent chance to sam that sam could come back just because the price tag might not be as as high as maybe we initially thought it was um but there is still that chance that you know you get every offseason there's always teams that are quarterback starved and want to bring a guy in and give him, you know, we saw this with Baker Mayfield. We saw this with Geno Smith, where teams are just they need a quarterback. They're kind of in a tough spot with where they'd be drafting. So they might not be in a position to draft one high. And then Sam Darnold is going to be out there.

And he's probably if he's a free agent he's probably going to be the best quarterback on the market best one available i i don't even know who the the second guy would be that tells you what the kind of market could potentially be for sam darnold still based off of the entire 2024 season that he had so um but i i can also see a scenario like tom said where the vikings saw enough from sam darnold in 2024 to think we can bring this guy back maybe give jj mccarthy another bridge year because he's coming off of a you know fairly significant knee injury and he might just need another you know training camp off season at the very least first half of a regular season to really get himself um ready to go and if you do that you know sam donald in that scenario sam

donald's still a better option than someone like a daniel jones in my opinion based off of i think what we've seen so yeah i i buy it you know a lot of fans that aren't going to want to hear that right now because they're ready to just say, get out of here, Sam, don't let the ball, or don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Let's go to JJ. But I can see it happening, and I honestly, I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world

for the Vikings to do that. So the reason that this stood out to me, because I'm not surprised to see the first reaction from the comment section is some sort of agent related conspiracy or whatever. The reason I use this is because we know Tom so well and we know the legitimacy of his reporting and his opinions. Now, they haven't told him, nor have they told anyone else, because they probably haven't had their meetings to make this decision yet. Usually those meetings come right before the NFL combine, where they say, what are we going to the combine to try to accomplish here? They have their free agent meetings, and he would be certainly a part of that conversation as their biggest free agent. What are we going to do at quarterback? You also don't want to make the

decision three days after the end of the season because it shades your opinion so much. At the same time, you want to properly weigh what we saw and all the issues that may potentially come from bringing Darnold back that many folks have laid out, but it does make it a bigger challenge with the salary cap. There's no question about that if they were to bring him back, but it really stood out to me that Mr. Palisaro is pointing toward a, a lot of people think that even despite these last couple of games, that it would be better to bring him back and allow JJ McCarthy to fully develop.

And of course he added in vehemently as we have on the show as well. They're not trading JJ McCarthy, and there is a possibility of having them both in training camp next year and having, as Kevin O'Connell has talked about, this really talented quarterback room that he's very excited about and so forth. And I guess what I was thinking about, if we're trying to, rather than make an argument, hey, I'm for it, you're against it, that kind of thing, but just how possible is it? What are the odds of it? Because the way that he phrased it is the smart money.

Okay, so that's the smart money. Well, I think that in this case, Darnold starting week one of 2025, it may be the smart money, but I think it's an underdog a little bit. I think that JJ McCarthy starting 2025 is more likely. My main point throughout talking about this has been that if they want to do it with Darnold because they want to give McCarthy more time, they can. It's not the end of the franchise. You don't have to sell the team because you can't afford to pay a guard. I looked up what Robert Hunt and Jonah Jackson's cap hits were for 2024. I believe it was 13.6 or something for Jonah Jackson, who got one of the biggest

contracts and maybe it was under seven for Robert Hunt in the first year. Those are two guards who got paid big dollars, a hundred million dollar contracts. But in the first year, their numbers were not that high as is kind of the case with all of these free agent deals that get done. So that's always been my point is that you can do it. It doesn't destroy the franchise. It does make it a little bit harder, but they planned for cap space and everything else. I do wonder though, which side everybody would stand on in the building. The owners, hey guys, didn't we move on from Kirk

because we don't want to pay a quarterback, but also the owners might say,'t we move on from kirk because we don't want to pay a quarterback but also the owners might say we just won 14 games i don't want to win eight because we're training a new quarterback who's never played before or you could look at it from o'connell's perspective and he could say do i really have to teach another quarterback how to play again like after having to teach kirk the system and then teach darnell the system and now you gotta re-teach it to jj mccarthy because he knows it up here but he doesn't know it with all of his body movement and the timing and everything else that goes into it and the same with you know people bring up daniel jones which is interesting

because daniel jones has been worse over the last two years than Sam Darnold ever was in his career. But okay. I get it. That could be your backup, I guess your backup option. But then again, you look at Daniel Jones's record and do you go, yeah, he could, he could bring us right back to the playoffs. Like I know Darnold was poor before, but Darnold also played really well in his more recent sample before coming to Minnesota. That's the opposite of Daniel Jones. So where's your percentage at Manny? Cause I think where, where I would probably lean right now is maybe 60% chance that it's McCarthy and 40% chance that it's Darnold coming back. But I'm not really confident in these numbers. Folks, I found something that I didn't even know how badly I needed.

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You know what I mean? You can't just sweep that under the rug and pretend like that didn't happen because of what happened the last two games of the season on the other hand what happened in the last two games of the season also like you can't just ignore that either you have to factor that into it as well so I think this is you know this decision that Kwezi Adolfo Mensah and, you know, Kevin O'Connell and the Wills for that matter, because this is, you know, the money that they're investing into this team, you know, the cap space, all of that stuff. This is something that they're all going to have to really sit down and have a long discussion about. And, you know, teams do this anyway, after, you know, regardless of what the quarterback situation is, they sit down after the season is over and they evaluate what the, everything that they saw during the season, the good, the bad, what's our next step. You know, how do we do this? The teams that win the Superbowl do this at the end of the season of like, Hey, we just won the

Superbowl. How do we get back there next year? You know what I mean? That's always so. So they're going to sit down as a group, as an organization, and they're going to talk about this. I'm kind of leaning from a percentage standpoint. I kind of lean with where you're going on it, but I just don't know. I'm thinking 55, 45, that kind of range in favor of McCarthy. But I just don't know. I'm thinking 55, 45, that kind of range in favor of McCarthy. But I just don't know. I mean, because I still think this is something that they're really mulling over as well.

Something that I think about with the possibility, a couple things with Sam Darnold and the potential for him to come back is how Kevin O'Connell, I think did want Kirk cousins to come back at the right price. There was no argument. Once it got to four years, a hundred mil guarantees. Okay. Well, I like the guy, but I'm not insane.

Uh, we'll let Arthur blank be insane and then now be cutting or trading Kirk cousins at the end of their season. But I do think that his want for cousins to return and draft a quarterback was real. I think that that is the route that O'Connell wanted. I think he wanted to sort of have his cake and eat it too with a bridge quarterback to develop someone for a year, because he really strongly believes that you have to be a hundred percent ready to go play when it's time, or that can be very damaging to a player's career. And I think it was very damaging to Sam

Darnold's career. There's no argument. Now, Sam Darnold is a starting quarterback in the league. I mean, very clearly prove that for this year and prove that the teams in the past messed it up with Sam Darnold, that there was a possibility he could actually play and they just didn't give him the chance. So I don't think you want to be, if you're Kevin O'Connell, the guy who's pushing your quarterback in. O'Connell's contract makes a difference too. If he signs a five-year contract extension for full, who even knows how much money at this point after 14 wins then you can look at things through multi-year type of windows and not just like boy i better

get the kid in think about ibrafus think about matt nagy just having to force the young players in well they're not ready well we can't really bench them because i'm going to get fired it actually helped dave canalis and carolina to be the new coach that they weren't going to fire after one year to sit down Bryce Young and then bring him back in because he knew I'm not going to get fired after this one year. That's not even my quarterback. So he actually handled it correctly because he had the space to do so. And I think about that with Kevin O'Connell, that he doesn't have to be pressured by, man, if I don't win next year, I am just freaking out of this job. So I do think if there is a case for Darnold to come back, it has a lot to do with those things. But here's my question, Manny.

Do you think that Sam Darnold wants to come back because of the coach, the receivers, how much success they had, how fun the locker room was? Or do you think that Sam Darnold be like, okay, I went to, you know, how college players, they go to like a community college and they light it up and everything. Then, all right, now it's time to go on to, uh, now it's time to go on to uh now it's time to go on to real college or sort of thing like is it for darnold hey i went to the koc school of pumping up your stats and making people believe you're good now where am i off to next because does he really want to have jj mccarthy behind him or would he rather be somewhere else? It's a great question.

I think all of the factors would have to come into play, I think, if you're Sam and you're trying to make that decision of like, okay, first of all, I think he has to think, okay, how badly do the Vikings want me back? Do they really want me back? How badly do they want me back? They've got J. jj sitting there it still appears to be a plan that they want jj to be the guy going forward long term so if i decide to come

back depending on the money and the contract and all of that you know what what sort of situation am i going back to where my leash might be a little bit shorter? You know what I mean? If I come back and I'm starting week one, 2025, and I don't play well week one or week two, am I going to get yanked and then JJ comes into the game and then I'm the backup for the rest of the year? Maybe I don't really want that, you know, if you're thinking from Sam's perspective. And the other side of it is I I can go out in the market, I'm going to be the top free agent quarterback available.

There's probably a huge drop-off between the number two guy. Like I just said a minute ago, I don't even know who the number two free agent quarterback would be. Gardner Minshew or something like that. I don't know who it would be, but it would be a drop-off, I think. And so that could possibly present an opportunity for Sam to get, you know, a pretty substantial contract from somebody that is in

need of a quarterback. The other part of it is if you're Sam, you can think, all right, look at all the success I had last year. My career was kind of revitalized with Minnesota. Am I guaranteed to have this same kind of success if I sign with, like, let's say the Raiders or somebody that is maybe not is able to get, you know, a Shador Sanders or a Cam Ward in the draft? Then they're probably going to be looking to somebody like me. Well, I go to Las Vegas. There's no DeFonte Adams there anymore. Who am I going to be throwing to? They're going to have like me, well, I go to Las Vegas. There's no Devante Adams there anymore. Who am I going to be throwing to? They're going to have a brand new coach.

What am I kind of walking into? I might get a nice contract, but am I going to have as much success as I had in 2024? So he's going to have to weigh all of those options because it's not guaranteed for him to have the same sort of infrastructure and setup if he goes somewhere else. might have a bigger paycheck, but the success might not necessarily be there. He stays in Minnesota and then they start out four and three and he's playing. Okay. And he's got a 89 quarterback rating and not 102. Everyone's just going to want McCarthy to play. And there's just, it's going to be like in the stands, especially with how riled up people are about this now and how they do not want him back.

The first sign of trouble in those stands, it's going to be JJ, JJ, they're going to want to JJ McCarthy to be out there. And that might not be something that you want to deal with. If you're Sam Darnold, you might very much prefer to go to anywhere and just say, you know what? I'm going to make a bet. I know New York's tough, but I'm going to make a bet on the giants. I get Malik neighbors. I think Brian Dable is a good coach and off we go, right? I'm going to go play there and see what happens. I don't think that's a great idea for him because that organization has fallen into disrepair and we're not totally sure. Brian Dable somehow coach of the year in 2022 is actually good at this.

And the same thing, like you said, goes for the Raiders. If they don't get Shadur Sanders or Cam Ward, and they're just saying, hey, Darnold, come save our franchise. Oh, yeah. Like you said, the number one wide receiver we used to have here may no longer be here. And so good luck. And we don't know his coach right now for the Raiders. That might make a difference as well. so good luck. Uh, and you know, we don't know his coach right now for the Raiders that might make a difference as well. So if you're him, I don't think there's any real perfect scenario

where you're just the guy on a long-term contract with a good team and a good coach, unless I'm missing one, all the teams that are short of quarterbacks are the teams that we tend to think of as you are not good outside of maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now that could be an interesting one if he wanted to go to the Steelers because they are a better organization and they have, I think some struggles with coaching on the offensive side, but I've never quite figured out like, is that struggles with coaching or is that just, they're trying to throw what Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph in there I think it's probably a little more of that but they also seem to struggle with wide receivers and they run too much because

Tomlin wants to run and play defense it's like no place gives you Jefferson Addison Hawkinson. And when Darisaw comes back, one of the best left tackles in the league, that is what makes it difficult from his perspective. I will read you what Joel Corey, former NFL agent who writes for CBS sports said about this situation. He wrote a long article. He said, there is a possibility. is a possibility the Vikings would not get a 2026 compensatory draft pick by letting Darnold walk in free agency. It would depend on how aggressive they were in signing free agents. Because of this, using the franchise tag to trade Darnold isn't out of the question. Then he referenced the Matt Castle trade and how he got traded back. I think it was in, was it Oh nine

after Brady had gotten her castle played well, they franchise tagged him and then traded him to the Kansas city chiefs. Uh, Joel also wrote the Vikings may be intrigued by Mayfield type deal with a modest 2025 cap hit and several million less than the 2025 franchise tag for Darnold because McCarthy is essentially a rookie who is an unknown quantity. And this is where that right there is one of the things that I keep saying out loud and no one seems to process it. JJ McCarthy hasn't played any football at all. I mean, a preseason game against the Raiders, not even the starter of the preseason game, or was he, was he the starter that day?

I think, did he start or did Darnold start? Who started that game? It must've been Darnold. Yeah. No, Darnold had the first, Darnold had the first drive. So he didn't even start the preseason game and he lights it up and that's, and that's it. Like, that's it.

That's the, that's the only experience we have other than the training camp practices where he was great. And I reported from them that he was making a push. I reported from them that I thought he had parts of his game that were more talented than Sam Darnold, seeing the field processes and all those things. reported from them that i thought he had parts of his game that were more talented than sam darnold seeing the field processing all those things but he's played no games everyone is sure jj mccarthy is better than sam darnold just like lock it in all set we're good he's gonna be way better i saw in the comment section he would have won those playoff games what he doesn't play football like we have no idea

and so that is right there the crux of it is how willing are they to roll the dice on a player who has no experience at the quarterback position for next year yeah well i think if you even go back 20 you know 25 years when you know the vikings you're at the 99 season, you're at Jeff George and Randall Cunningham. Jeff George takes over. Randall Cunningham gets benched. George takes over, goes on a nice run, plays really well, takes the Vikings to the playoffs. They beat the Cowboys in the wildcard round. They lose to the Rams in the divisional round they had the vikings had drafted dante cold pepper with the 11th pick in the draft that year 1999 and dante was the number three quarterback

all season long i think he might have saw some game action in a in a blowout win or something maybe that season um but i don't i mean he didn't play basically. Dante did not play at all. And he didn't have like a meniscus tear in his knee. You know what I mean? Dante was just the number three guy. And even with all of that, with all the talent, the physical skill that Dante had, and Dante had been really productive at Central Florida,

they still, when Jeff George and Randall Cunningham left in free agency, the Vikings still tried to get Dan Marino to come and play for them in the 2000 season. And, you know, Dan Marino was older, he was in his late 30s, and he was just done after, you know, getting blown out in his last game with the Dolphins. But even then, with Dante Culpepper having kind of a redshirt year, a healthy redshirt year, the Vikings at that time were still a little bit unsure about just handing the keys over to this veteran, talented team with weapons and a running game and a great offensive line. With all of that set up, they were still hesitant to give Dante the keys like that. Now, eventually they did because Marino told them no, and they really had no other options. And they went to Dante in 2000, and it worked out.

He had a great season. They got to the NFC Championship game. We don't have to talk about that game too much. But Dante had a great first season as a starter, led the league in touchdown passes, et cetera, et cetera. So I think it's fair to fast forward 25 years and obviously it's a different different you know setup for the vikings now different coaches different ownership all of that stuff but it's reasonable to think that the vikings have this

situation with jj mccarthy where they just want to be sure that they give this kid the proper, what's the word I'm looking for, just the proper path to the best kind of development that he can get. And maybe that might not necessarily mean throwing him out into the wolves in 2025 and then expecting the same kind of results or similar results that you had this year. And I'm not necessarily talking about they want, they're going to start JJ McCarthy week one, and they want him to lead the Vikings to a 14 and three record into the playoffs. That's not necessarily what I'm saying, but you do have a veteran team with a lot of guys

who have gotten a taste of winning and being in the conversation of going to the Super Bowl this year. Some of those guys that are coming back are going to want to do that again. And, you know, what are you telling them when you decide to just outright say, all right, we're going to turn it over to this kid. We're going to give him the keys to the car. And here we go, guys. We're going to go 12-5 or 13-4. We're going to turn her over to this kid we're going to give it give him the keys of the car and here we go guys we're going to go 12 and 5 or 13 and 4 we're going to get to the playoffs again and this time we're going to win because it's not sam darno it's jj mccarthy this time i don't know if anybody can really predict that it's really going to play out that way it might

not be quite as good as what we saw this year well there's just a lot of areas that went completely right for this team that would be hard to repeat. One of them is that they were completely healthy on defense, and that's a big part of it. So, I mean, I suppose, you know, you can equal that out by getting more talent on defense. They could do that either way, but it's easier to do. If JJ McCarthy is the guy, then they can do the spending spree, just like they did last year and go in on that defense and try to stack it back up. But having it be completely healthy is hard to do. They had, I think, the biggest yardage differential in penalties for this year

for how many yards they got from penalties from other teams. There are things that have to fall in place. The quarterback did have five game-winning drives, which is another tough thing to repeat. You need to win the one score games. They won basically all of them. So that's a tough thing to repeat. Like these, these things that will regress might end up hitting JJ McCarthy, like a ton

of bricks, as opposed to Sam Darnold, which could offer some challenges for him at the beginning of his career, which I think that you could make the other side of that. And you could say, well, you know, that's true, but you'd rather step back and win nine or eight with McCarthy for next year to develop him and make sure that he's ready to go on in the future where it's difficult is that you have so many players in their primes that are on the team, Grenard and Van Ginkle and Cashman and Jefferson and so forth. And it's a difficult thing to say, well, you're actually going to have a step back year here. So give it all your best around this guy, but we're probably not really competing for a Superbowl. And realistically, there's no,

I mean, Jade Daniels is about as good as it ever gets for rookie quarterbacks competing with playoff teams. Daniels, CJ Stroud last year, they would need some sort of season like that from JJ McCarthy, but I'll throw you out some historical things to go on the McCarthy side of it, which would be, this is funny. Uh, Brock Purdy playing for San Francisco. He had those couple of games where he impressed in 2022. Right. And I think he had gone five and I was a starter or something then hurt his elbow. The 49ers called none other than Tom Brady and asked Brady to be their quarterback. This reportedly happened. I'm not making this up. This happened. So they called Tom Brady and they said, can you come play

quarterback for us for a year? And they talked to Brock Purdy and they told him, can you just like chill for a year and watch Tom Brady play? And then like, you're a guy later. And then Brock Purdy went to the Superbowl and that same year, the Philadelphia Eagles called about Russell Wilson because they weren't sure about Jalen hurts. And this just tells you how unsure even the NFL is. That's your point about, you know, Dan Marino. It's like they were calling about Russell Wilson in Philadelphia. Jalen hurts then took him to Superbowl the very next year. So a lot of times you do have to just sort of take the leap of faith with the younger player. But what I think is just sort of like, I'm not as comfortable as everybody else, even as much as I saw up close and reported on from the sidelines of training camp, not as confident as everybody else to say someone who's never played before is just going to be great because they are like, that's just

not how it always works all the time. And so I guess, yeah, you asked about who the other free agent quarterbacks are. Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones, Mack Jones, Andy Dalton. It's not great. My friend, as far as the other, so you're talking about maybe Daniel Jones is the backup, or maybe he goes somewhere else to compete with somebody else. And you end up with Andy Dalton as the backup, which means if McCarthy were to get banged up again, you're just, uh, on screwed Island for next year, which is also a little tricky as well. So the thing about it is that I know that, uh, I know how the comment section feels. I know how the fan base feels. I am well aware. I have been told over and over and over and over and over again. And what I'm trying to do here is lay it all out.

So I think what we're doing here, Manny, is what the Vikings will do inside their room. Only there are things that they know that we don't know. So they have seen camp practices from JJ McCarthy. They have not seen a year of practicing because he just started throwing today. So, or this week. So they don't have a big sample. Remember the Mike Zimmer, I see him in practice every day. They don't have that with JJ McCarthy. They saw working with the second team and training

camp and looking good. And that is very little information to work with. And so what I can't help but think about is, well, who's going to be more comfortable with that? Like, I think that the general manager is probably going to be more comfortable than the head coach because the head coach wants to continue to win and continue to compete and have a quarterback he can trust while developing over developing the player behind him. And I don't know where, where that goes, but, uh, Kwesi Adafo-Menta did, I have this clip here, answer a question. He gave an update on where JJ McCarthy is in his recovery.

And this is a big factor to this decision. I mean, from a physical standpoint alone, I'm like, where is he at? And like, how can you kind of think about what he might do until he's at that point? Yeah, he's on the field throwing and training. You know, I try and go get a walk in before I talk to you guys so I don't talk as quickly. You know, that's what people tell me. I talk a little quick sometimes.

So I was in there and he was actually in there doing some, you know, those cool quarterback thrusty things that Dak does, you know, with weights. He was in there doing them. He looks great. He's excited. You know, you talk about a kid who's just obsessed with football and loves being around the game. So we're excited about what we have in him. We're excited for this offseason for him. It's a big offseason. And then. So there you go. That's he's starting to get back on the field he started to do his movement stuff and i'm not going to pretend manny that i'm an expert here on his recovery from meniscus surgery

this is why their information is a lot better than ours but i just think it's always worth just just flesh it all out. When one of the top NFL insiders thinks that Darnold's coming back and when everybody else thinks that Darnold's not coming back. And last year we kind of went through this with his Kirk coming back and it's not, and it came down to a crazy old owner in Atlanta that wanted to pay out of his mind for Kirk cousins. Like I'm trying to think of every factor that will play into this. Yeah. I mean, I, I just think that in, in all of your years of covering this league and all

of my years of just following the league and loving the league and, and following the Vikings, the, the number one thing that we have learned is that we just don't really know. And you can't, we can speculate and we can guess on how we think something is going to play out. And we can talk about like different scenarios and, you know, how things can play out one way or the other. But we just don't know for sure. Perfect example. Vegas thought this team going into 2024 was going to win like six or seven games and they won double that. So we just, we just don't know. And I think what we, what we have

to be careful of is, is just making an assumption that JJ McCarthy is just going to step in and he's going to be great. And he's going to go throw 30 touchdowns and they're going to go to the playoffs and it's just going to be great and they're going to go to the Super Bowl in the next couple of years. We just don't know. And that's not me saying that I don't like J.J. McCarthy or that I don't believe in him. I'm saying we just don't know.

I actually like J.J. McCarthy. I think he's got a pretty good chance to be pretty good but I don't know that for sure and so I think for for for people to kind of have this assumption that it's just absolutely going to happen that it's going to work out exactly the way that we think it's going to work out because it's time to go to him. We just don't know that yet. And I think, I hope that everybody's going to kind of taper their expectations for next year because it's, it's, it's a possibility that this team could end up not having as good a season as they did in 2024. And then my question is going to be, how's everybody going to feel if it plays out to where this team goes like 10 and seven and you know maybe they make the playoffs as like a 6 or a 7 seed or maybe they go 10 and

7 and don't make the playoffs that's what Seahawks did this year Seahawks went 10 and 7 Edward Geno Smith and a team that had some talent and they didn't make the playoffs because it wasn't good enough how's everybody going to feel about where it's going? You know what I mean? How does J.J. McCarthy play during those 17 games? You know, how's everybody going to feel about Kevin O'Connell and Kweisi Adolfo Mensah, you know, if that happens? And the reason why I ask that question is it's possible. It's possible they could play out that way. Or maybe J.J. McCarthy starts and they go 13-4, 14-3,

and they make the playoffs. Maybe. I probably wouldn't bet a lot of money on that, but it's possible. The overall point is we just don't know for sure. Let me try to work out a few of the misunderstandings, I guess, when it comes to where we stand with this. Preston says last year, everyone said you can't win giving 35 million to your quarterback every

year. Now they're wondering if they could bring back Sam at 35 million. No, you can't. Well, so the Kirk discussion is quite a bit different than the Sam Darnold discussion, because if you think about the two options for Sam Darnold discussion. Because if you think about the two options for Sam Darnold, one of them is a franchise tag for one year. Kirk Cousins was not the problem with the salary cap in 2018 or 2019. Not when they had a winning team, they kept everybody. They had the whole team come back. It was that he didn't play well in 2018. They hired the wrong OC. He did not do a very good job in the biggest games and he seemed to really struggle to assimilate himself. Oh, and the coach hated him, like all those things. So that's a little bit different. And then when

they needed a full rebuild where they needed everything after 2019, they extended him on a short-term deal that took up a huge amount of cap space so they could only go get and they also kept everybody that they could they kept kyle rudolph on a big contract you know they signed delvin cook to a big contract like those are not things you should be doing we also have to keep in mind that the general manager who dealt with that signed the worst possible contracts for cousins to work around and then made the worst possible moves around cousins to, and missed on a bunch of draft picks too.

We only, we act like only the current GM did that as if he inherited a team with a million great draft picks on defense before. And he's sort of trying to been chasing the failed picks from the Spielman era. But those are just different circumstances than we're dealing with now. And when we look at the two options, the 35 or $40 million on the franchise tag for a single year really does not negate your ability. I gave you what the guards, the top guards cap hits for this year that signed last off season were 13 and seven. Like it's not a crazy thing for a year. That's always been my point. That's always been my point is that for a year you can do it. Or even if you sign them to

the Mayfield deal with the plan to trade him, if you feel really comfortable with McCarthy. And what keeping Darnold does is that it keeps you sort of on, like gives you this option to allow McCarthy to be fully developed by the time he plays. And so this is another sort of misunderstanding is Midwest says I'm blown away. Matthew seems to be leaning toward the Darnold take, which you have to understand. And I know, I know there's been internet weirdos who have tried to make this a thing and I wish them the best of luck. Use, use me for your own gain. All you want, you, you freaks can do whatever you want. It doesn't bother me. It doesn't hurt me, but let me just be clear on this. Always from day one. The most important thing is the guy you drafted to be your franchise quarterback and developing him the best way you can. So he's 110% ready to lead

an NFL franchise. And if in the eyes of Kevin O'Connell, he needs another year, then bring back Darnold. If in the eyes of Kevin O'Connell, McCarthy is ready to go franchise QB. We're good. Then go with it. And, and I, and that, that, that take is not hot enough. I guess it's not, I'm on this side. You're on that side. Me and Manny yelling at each other. I wouldn't win a yelling battle with Manny. Anyway, your voice is, is there, is there anything unreasonable? No, I'm also not milking it for content. Wade, what are you doing here? I guess if you think that just go away. I mean, what are we doing here? Like, this is a very difficult decision that an entire organization has to make. And it's the most interesting one in the NFL. Yeah we're going to talk about it here's what i'm going to do i'm going to do what everybody in the chat is doing i'm going to make an assumption

based off of what they're what what they're saying to us i'm going to i'm going to do what they were doing to us they're making assumptions about what we're saying so i'm going to do what what what they're doing to them i think that the fans that are desperate to get J.J. McCarthy starting for this team in 2025 looked at the Bears, the Commanders, the Patriots, and the Falcons all getting to play with their rookie quarterback toys in 2024, and their guy was sitting on the bench for the entire season, and now they're anxious.

They want to see their guy because look at what the other teams, they got to play with their rookie quarterbacks. They got to put those guys out there. I want to see my guy too. I want to open my Christmas present now. There. No, Midwest, I was not calling you a freak. I was referring to people who use my analysis to try to make assumptions about you're

on this side, you're on that side. When anybody who's actually listened to the show the whole time knows that that's just not how I do business because I'm a professional reporter, not some whack nut on the internet who just types in all caps. So anyway, um, the, the whole, the whole point is that I think that Kevin O'Connell and his ability to assess his quarterbacks, having been around them every single day, probably is better at this than anybody else in the world to make this decision. And so if Sam Darnold takes the first OTA rep is QB one, what that means is the head coach who is as good at working with quarterbacks in the universe has decided that he wants JJ McCarthy to develop more.

And yes, I'd be okay with that. And I don't know who would walk up to Kevin O'Connell and be like, no, you can't do it, bro. Not after the way that he's played this well. And, you know, if you're just going to keep repeating that they can't win with a quarterback who's getting paid, I don't know. Matt Stafford just kicked your ass with a big contract.

So I don't know. I'm just saying like, this is, it gets so, it gets exhausting. And, you know, I guess it's just, it's hardly worth. Jalen hurts might go back to the super bowl uh it's just hardly worth it it's so hard it's so hard to listen to because we go through all these different aspects we have this really interesting discussion and someone's like can't win and you're like okay i've explained this like 50 times i just gave you the guard cap hits from last year that's how much work i've done on this. I mean, I don't know, man.

I don't know what else I need to do other than just close the chat for the, for the rest of the off season. But, uh, anyway, so, um, let's, let's talk about some, some playoffs here. Um, and, and I, and look, I get it. I get it. It's the hottest topic and everyone wants McCarthy. And that's always in forever going to be the case. Your point, Manny, about wanting the new toy and everything else. There is all, there was an old saying when you and I were growing up that has gone away,

but it still has truth here, which is the most popular player on the team is the backup quarterback because now that's gone away because they don't bench quarterbacks anymore. But that used to be the case because when a, when a starting quarterback would struggle, everyone would want the other guy and be like, he could do better. And then the other guy would come in there and sometimes he would. And sometimes he would, but when it comes to, um, you know, uh, JJ McCarthy, I think that you always want to make sure that he's fully ready to play. And that is the biggest thing. And if that means bringing back someone who led you to 14 wins, 35 touchdowns, 4,300 yards, a top 10 rating, top 10 PFF rating.

Oh my gosh. Like sometimes it just feels like, did I, why, why did I cover the whole season when I could have just shown up in, in January and then just said, Darnold is terrible and he can't play. feels like, did I, why, why did I cover the whole season when I could have just shown up in, in January and then just said, Darnold is terrible and he can't play. I just, I made a mistake. I spent a lot of money traveling to Seattle to watch him throw a 40 yard touchdown. Um, so I feel like I've been gas lit a little bit here with people acting like, uh, McCarthy or, uh, that McCarthy is, is just clearly and obviously will be way better than Darnold.

And there's just no discussion to be had. So I think that's why I pushed back on it. And then of course people assume, and they say, you know, how many playoff way I get, I get it. I get it. I get it. I trust me. I flew to effing Glendale, Arizona, and it cost me a ton of money to go because I had to change my flights around only to watch them get their tails kicked i get it i get it i understand the whole deal he got sacked a bunch of times everything i get oh he was terrible last two games thanks for letting me know i just like i get it my it's more complicated than that then i just watched a game where he played bad so get rid of

him but we tar and feather quarterbacks that's what we do uh hopefully you know the folks in los angeles with justin herbert well think about matt stafford too i mean how many bad playoff games that he have before he didn't but anyway yeah i want to talk about something else. So in terms of like where the team stands and its expectations, I was kind of curious about this in the press conference today, just about what do you make of how much they exceeded their expectations this year? So I asked the general manager. We talked to you before the season. You talked about different expectations

and potential outcomes. I guess, how do you view this as one of the best possible outcomes you could have seen and what that means to the bigger picture? That's a great question, Kyler. Going into the season, I thought we would be a really competitive

playoff team. I did. I can't say that I sat here and said we were going to win 14 games. I'm not going to lie to anybody and say that. But we liked the players we brought in. We thought we had a good chance with our quarterback room to get really good play out of that, however that shook out. We knew we had a connected group. We had players already here who were shown to be resilient

and win one-score games, all those different things that we've established over the first two years. So I wasn't surprised that we were a playoff team. But sometimes when you're on the journey, your expectations sort of shift, you know, and that can happen. You almost reset expectations based on how it's going. But I'm going to try, and I'm not there yet, but I will try to step back and just reflect on it in its totality and make sure that I appreciate for what it is. Did we outperform, underperform

expectations? You have to do that by looking at a player level, what performances you got, different things like that, and looking at the metrics we do and just collaborate with our great group and figure that out. It's hard to answer that right now just because you're still just so stung by not being in the tournament and playing football with a great group that you think deserves. So I just thought that that was an interesting window into sort of how Kweisi Adafomensa thinks about these things

in terms of outcomes and chances and things like that. Uh, I shot you says that was you. It didn't sound like you. He said, great question, collar. Yeah, that was me. That was me. Um, so anyway, I don't have a huge reaction to that. I just thought it was an interesting answer to the expectation question. And then, uh, you know, it makes me think about the expectations for next year. Preston trying to press us into like, have a blazing take. What would I like the Vikings to do at quarterback next season?

Preston, I appreciate your direct approach. So I will, I will tell you it's exactly what I already said. If Sam Darnold comes back, there is a very clear reason. That is because Kevin O'Connell thinks McCarthy needs more time. And if that's what they do, I'm not going to throw a fit. I'm going to assume that Kevin O'Connell understands

where McCarthy needs to go in order to be ready. The best thing for JJ McCarthy is what they should do. That's, that's it. That's the take the best. If they let Darnold walk, they trade them away for draft picks with the franchise tag. I will assume that Kevin O'Connell believes McCarthy is ready to go. And I will say, okay. And, and off we go. He probably knows it's the, it's, it's not hot. It's not hot. It's not something that we could yell at each other about, but I also think it's right. Manny, what do you want them to do at quarterback next year? Preston wants to know, Love you, Preston. The right decision, whatever the hell it is. That's what I want them to do. Just make the right decision. And it, I think it, it, to your

point, if, if that means that JJ McCarthy needs a little bit more time to develop, I could, I could see that he's, he's, he's going to turn 20. I don't know. Again, I know his birthday is in January and he's going to turn 22 days from now. Yeah. Four days from now, he's going to be 22 years old. So I, I think that it's a realistic possibility. If this kid is 22 years old, he might just might not be ready yet.

I don't know that for sure. I'm not definitely pounding my fists on the table and definitely saying he's not ready. They don't need to put him out there yet. But if it's a situation where Darnold comes back to your point, it probably means he's not ready yet. And that's okay. That's kind of the way I look at it. If Darnold leaves, it likely means that McCarthy, that, that KOC feels like McCarthy is ready to play. I'd be okay with that too. If he's ready to play at 22, starting, you know, 22 years old, starting in 2025 week

one, let's go. I'm totally good with that. It just depends on what decision they make. It's just gotta be the right decision, whichever way they decide to go. Another point that I want to make is when we compare it to the past, is that they have earned the benefit of the doubt by moving on from older players,

resetting the salary cap, and working around $70 million of dead cap to produce a 14 win team this year. They've earned the right for us to say, I think you know how to work around one player's big contract. That's also important to me as well, because if this was Spielman and it was panic time, which they were in past 2019 and people almost lost their jobs and they were freaking out and trying to save themselves. I would look at this totally differently. I would, I would not look at it like, Hey, I think they can work around this and they'll just structure the contracts that way. And they'll go from there. It's, it would change my viewpoint on it.

So the, the context of these things are things are always really important as we try to analyze them. And that's why we talk for an hour, Manny. That's why we don't talk for eight minutes about this thing. So we can really have a full discussion and conversation. So I do appreciate you guys. I made fun of you in the comments section, but I do appreciate your respectfulness in your comments when it comes to this, because i know it's something that everybody is worked up about but i think what we're trying to display here is just how multi-layered this uh conversation really is so and of course as we're doing that we get the you know they can't spend in free agency just you's just, you know, you can't escape it. I get it.

I'm going to someday I'll just pull up over the cap.com and show you every contract in the league and show you how every single one of them is structured to make space in short terms on winning teams. And then we can just maybe forget it forever, but no matter how many times I say it, it's not going to matter. So let's talk about these playoff games, Manny, because, you know, you can't pick the Vikings game anymore, but you can pick playoff games now. And I think what I want to do here, if I can get myself logged into underdog fantasy, is pair our conversation with some underdog pickums. I am asking my computer to do a lot of things at once, but we can, we can make it work.

And even how about we'll get you some music. If we can just try to make it feel like there's a Viking game for you to pick. Okay. So a underdog fantasy, by the way, great sponsor of this show, the best place and easiest place to play fantasy sports and the fastest growing

fantasy app of the industry. We're going to do some pickups here. You can make up to 20 times your money. Also, if you use the promo code purple, you can claim your special pick. First time deposit offer up to a thousand dollars in bonus cash. Also there is endless tournaments to get in uh throughout the entire playoffs if you go to underdog you can play and you can play cheap which i think is uh my favorite part you can get in for like two bucks so uh you must be 18 or older terms apply concerned with your play call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org let us begin mr hill who is going to win between the kansas city

chiefs and the houston texans i like kansas city um i'm kind of getting back into that mode now in the playoffs where i just say yes to my homes every time until they lose because i didn't think they were going to go back to the Super Bowl last year. And of course they did and won the whole damn thing. But yeah, I'm going to go Kansas City here for sure against Houston Texans at home. I will agree with you. I think that there's a lot of folks who are kind of trying to make Houston happen.

And there's only one situation where, and look, I did run through my mind that like what if the edge rushers from houston just kill mahomes and he loses the game and then we're all like oh it happened to darnold then you got you know but if it happens to mahomes like it did in 2020 so anyway i don't think that the texans have much of a shot at this but that's the only shot is that they cause turnovers because of the Neil Hunter and will Anderson. And there has never been a player swap outside of maybe digs and Jefferson that it just worked out so beautifully for the Vikings and the other team.

You let Hunter go. He's a better fit there. You got Bernard. Everyone is happy. That's what we have here in, in our show. Everyone being happy commanders. And that's have here in our show. Everyone being happy. Commanders and that's a joke. Commanders and Lions. This I can't wait for. I know Vikings fans will be rooting very strongly against the Lions, Manny, but do you think the Commanders have a chance? Shout out to my younger cousin, Derek, who is a huge, huge, huge Commanders fan. He was, when they beat the Buccaneers, he was trolling me a little bit,

texting me pictures of his Commanders jersey and all that stuff. He's super pumped. I think he thinks they're going to go to the Super Bowl. I don't. I'm picking the Detroit Lions here, even with all their injuries on defense. Maybe some of those guys are going to start getting back here as they

go on a deeper run of the playoffs, but I think Detroit at home, they showed me a lot in that game against the Vikings, man. This team is just so well coached and so deep and next man up on the defensive side. They were fantastic. And I think it's going to continue on, especially with the week off and getting a little bit healthier. I think Detroit wins. I don't really know if it'll be very close either. I don't think so either kind of the darling teams usually run out in this round but let's tie it into

underdog fantasy here manny 295.5 yards is the higher lower number for combined total yardage for jayden daniels does he approach rushing and passing 300 yards against the Detroit defense that now, hey, the last time we saw him, they were the vaunted Detroit defense. But does Jaden Daniels put up big numbers, higher, lower, 295.5? I will say yes, because I think I can see him

getting a lot of passing yards in this game just because they're going to be down. I think Detroit's going to jump out to a big lead, and they're going to be relying on Jaden Daniels to kind of throw them back into this game. So I think, yeah, I will say higher on that one. I think so too, but man, the way that their defense just played, playoff Zedarius is a different Zedarius.

Their D-line was so nasty. The atmosphere was so difficult. If he can do anything, I will be really impressed. All right, Rams and Eagles at Philly. This is a 2 o'clock Central game on Sunday. Do you think that the Rams go into Philadelphia and upset the Eagles? I do not. I was really impressed with the Rams on Monday night against the Vikings. Sean McVay, he's one of the greatest coaches of all time. This guy is unbelievable to get that team to

perform that way. But I just, I think going into Philadelphia, I think they're just going to kind of run out of gas a little bit. And I think Philadelphia is going to kind of exert their will with the running game with Saquon, that defense, that offensive line, you know, the Rams defensive front is really good. They're going to be going up against a much better offensive line in Philadelphia than they faced on Monday against the Vikings. So I'm going to take the Eagles to win this one.

And they also do this thing called running the football. And I don't know if the Vikings have tried it, but it actually does some stuff sometimes. I'm interested. I'm interested because of the way that Jalen Hurts is coming off an injury. The fact that he just hasn't played that well, didn't really play that well last week. You know, I think that I think that the Rams can make this interesting,

but I also would not pick someone going coast to coast to Philadelphia when they didn't really have that tough of a game in the first round and they get to stay at home. Last game, the game of the century. Oh my God. I it's, it's both exciting and infuriating.

It's infuriating because somebody's got to go home after this one. I just want, can we play best of five? How about this? How about just the best of five series? Lamar versus Josh Allen. I'm sorry, the Bills and the Ravens. They play each other over and over again.

And then, okay, someone deserves to lose the game. Zay Flowers being out is a factor. It's in Buffalo. Do you think the Ravens can overcome that and beat the Bills? So when you had me pick the playoffs at the start, I had the Bills going all the way to the Super Bowl. After seeing what I saw from the Ravens against the Steelers in the wildcard round, I'm starting to kind of maybe shift a little bit to the Baltimore side.

So I'm going to take the Ravens to go on the road into Buffalo. Obviously a very difficult place to play as you know but there's just something about this Ravens team that I'm seeing with Lamar and Derrick Henry and some of the players their defense obviously we don't really associate the Ravens

with not having a strong defense defense isn't really all that strong but I think there's enough players on that side that can kind of elevate on this sort of stage and play better. So I'll take the Ravens to win a very, very close, epic game in Buffalo. I don't know. It's a hard one to pick. It's so hard.

It's so hard. I mean, I like the bills for this in that Baltimore's defense got hot toward the end of the season. The aggregate of the full season is that they can be a little shaky. The Bills run the ball well. They control the ball well. Their house is hard to play in. Does this come down to, like, Justin Tucker and whether he's founded or not?

You know, I mean, he struggled a lot in the middle of the season and kind of started to get it back a little bit. Who's going to kick field goals in this game between these two teams and the Ravens did blast the bills the last time they played him. I don't know how much of a factor that is or, or how much it projects to the future. I think I'm going to lean bills. Give me the numbers here on Allen and Lamar Jackson to 78.5 higher, lower on Jackson. That feels like a lock for hire.

Yeah. Yeah. I think with it, because with the bills defense and, you know, we didn't really see the Broncos do a lot of this on this past weekend, but it feels like teams, veteran teams with good, with really, really elite quarterback play

can move the ball a little bit on the Spills defense. We saw Jared Goff do it even in a losing effort against them earlier. So, yeah, I would say higher on those totals for Lamar. And 289.5 for Josh Allen combined yardage. What do you think? Higher. I will also go higher. I mean,

I, I, I almost think that there's, that there's no chance that it's not higher because he's their whole offense. He is an absolute beast. The one thing about him is that, you know, his best play from last week is throwing to a

scat back and you know, Chester Taylor out there catching the ball in the back of the end zone or David Palmer or whatever. It's not a true number one wide receiver and Zay flowers are going to be out in this game too. So they don't really have one either. Uh, which, which quarterback can overcome not having that one guy to pump the football to all night. I think that Jackson's a little more erratic and he's a little easier to, he's not easier to get, but sometimes if you get your hands on him, you can actually take him down. Unlike Josh Allen, who just throws people off of him. Allen does not turn the ball over or neither does Jackson. They're both throwing the ball extremely well. I don't know.

I mean, this one's too tough to call. Do you think we'll see both of them run for a lot of yards too? I was thinking yes. Because of the lack of real true number one weapons to throw to, it feels like there's going to be situations where the receivers are covered really well

and both of them are going to have to have times where they just tuck the ball and run. I feel like they both end up with like 80 plus yards rushing. I also think that Henry and Cook are going to go back and forth in this game in quite a battle. So who at this moment then do you have going to the Super Bowl? So I've got the Ravens against the Chiefs and then the Eagles against the Lions. I'm going to take the Lions and the Chiefs. I'm not doubting the Holmes anymore. Right, yeah, understandable. The Eagles and the Lions is just a big bucket of salt

and throwing it on the Minnesota Vikings eyeballs. Just not what they were looking for. So anyway, let me answer, uh, or I'll let you answer this question, Manny. Cause I, I feel like I've, um, maybe ranted a bit again. Um, what a shame somebody asked earlier, a good question, which was as we go into this off season, not every single discussion will be the Darnold debate, but I did think it was worth bringing up that one of the top NFL insiders said the smart money is on Darnold returning. Give me your top three. Like you have to, no matter how your cap space works out, you have to get this, this, and this,

this off season draft free agency, whatever, or they will not win next year. Um, I would say a guard and free agency, um, a corner with your first round pick might be hard. It's going to be really hard to trade up if you need to but you know if you can trade back and still get a corner i think that would be really helpful um and i think you know you you might have to explore running back in free agency if aaron jones doesn't come back um those are probably the the three that i'm thinking oh maybe maybe interior defensive lineman maybe you can find an impact player in that free agency. Or again, the draft would be hard because you don't have a lot of capital there.

But yeah, those are probably the three spots that I'm looking at for improvement that they got to go get. One other question I had on my mind, didn't get out there into the press conference, was just about Brian Flores and the odds that he ends up somewhere else. What is your percentage chance that Brian Flores gets a job elsewhere? And then I don't think it's an exaggeration to say throws the defense into chaos a little bit. If he's not there, I would say 15 to 20%. He gets a job. 80 to 85%. He's back. Yeah,

I think that's right. I, it would take him really blowing away somebody to want to turn the keys over to him again after what happened before. And the two of stuff still lives. I don't think that that's just gone away, but he's going to have some opportunities. He's going to have three interviews,

I think over the next two days. So there will be some real chances for Brian Flores. Anyway. Well, thank you all for listening and participating. And thank you, Manny, for your time.

Manny and I will, we'll keep grinding on Mondays and Thursdays through the playoffs. And we'll react to what happens over the weekend and go from there into the off season with news and all different things that come up and we'll have some fun discussions as well. So thank you, Manny, as always.

Thanks everybody for listening slash watching, and we will catch you all next time. Football. football.