Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - OK fine, let's really talk about the Vikings getting back into the playoff race

Episode Date: November 9, 2020

Matthew Coller and Chad Graff of The Athletic dive deep into the Vikings' last two wins and which parts of them are sustainable. Can the Vikings really get hot enough down the stretch to get back in the race? Can they keep running Dalvin Cook like they have? Can Kirk Cousins put a game on his back? How do they compare to the Chicago Bears? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. I'm Shanae Obumike. I'm Lisa Leslie, and we're very excited to tell you about our new podcast with Blue Wire, Front and Center. Lisa and I are breaking down what's going on in our lives, in the world, and keeping it 100. We're also learning from amazing guests as well, like Emmanuel Acho. People that show love to me, I forever got their back. Vivica A. Fox. If the foundation isn't right, then the rest of it's going to go wrong from there.

And more. Subscribe to Front and Center today. Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and joining me from The Athletic is Chad Graff. And Chad is going to spend the next half an hour or so trying to convince me that the Vikings will make the playoffs. Okay, go ahead, Chad. Well, I'm thrilled that this is my honor and my job to do. It feels like a bit of a tall task, I must say. But let's not discount that the Vikings actually did play well. Yes, it was the Lions, but I think, you know, it may be

crazy to say after just two games, the defense may not be terrible. That's a low bar, to be sure. And one of those games occurred in, you know, 40-mile-an-hour wind gusts. But are we sure the Vikings are terrible on defense? Yes, I am sure. But I'm also sure that their head coach knows what he's doing. And this is very opposite of the Detroit Lions, who I'm sure their head coach does not know what he's doing. But we always thought that this was the possibility. Now, we got the order of operations wrong.

We did not expect a 1-5 start. But 3-5 at this point before the season, if you told me that, I would have said, okay, that sounds about right because of the quarterbacks that they play. And also, we knew that there were going to be a lot of holes at the beginning of the year that Mike Zimmer would have to scheme around and I think that the game against Seattle the game against Green Bay and then against Detroit on Sunday what we really saw was Zimmer scheming the bend don't break don't give up 40 yard plays get into the red zone cause a turnover do something like that make a play and then you've got a chance to hang

in there if your offense can carry you. So it's like it took them a while, but they kind of finally got around to the way that they needed to play to win games. And Mike Zimmer said on Monday something that I think can sound pompous if you look at it from the lens of, you know, he's just doing what he can to keep his job. But that I think despite how it may come off is actually pretty accurate which was he said he told his defensive coaches we're doing one of our best coaching jobs and we're still giving up more than 400 yards a game which I think is both true and as crazy as it sounds and also just provides a little insight into what is going on in the secondary. I think they were probably wrong from the get-go to just assume that because they have

two good safeties in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, they were going to make up for all of the issues that they were going to have at cornerback. That was a flaw from the outset. But having said that, they haven't had the same top three cornerbacks in a single game all season. On Sunday, they were playing Chris Jones, who, you know, when you type him into Google, as I was trying to figure out who the heck he is, you get like 18 Chris Jones before him and have to actually specify in your Google search, Chris Jones cornerback. And they did pretty well with this guy named Chris Jones playing, you know, as their nickel corner. So the defense has some big issues.

You know, as you mentioned by saying, yes, they kind of are terrible. But the coaching staff is good enough to, I think, make a terrible defense not half bad. Yeah, and I almost think that NFL teams are now going to have to do this, and it's one of the reasons that Seattle is so bad and that Detroit is so bad is that a few years ago, everybody was playing a single high safety and they were being aggressive at the line of scrimmage, and then all of a sudden, all the offenses said, you know what? If we use a bunch of motion and play action,

we're going to hit big plays down the field all day. And Matt Patricia and Pete Carroll have not gotten that memo, and their defenses are just getting shredded every single week. That Detroit team has way more talent on defense than the Vikings do right now from player to player. I think they're solid, and yet they're terrible and giving up huge play action plays as if it's the first time Kirk Cousins has ever run them against anyone.

But I think that the way Zimmer has adapted to playing two deep safeties all the time, he's basically said, if you want to dink and dunk, that's fine, but you're not going to hit these receivers 40 or 50 yards down the field. And it's been really effective. But the way I want to frame this though is sustainable or not. So let's go through the things that are working and talk about whether they're sustainable or not and right there's a good place not pressuring the quarterback which they still didn't do yesterday and trying to just keep everything in

front of you and hope for interceptions in the red zone to me is only sustainable if it is what Garrett Gilbert who starts against them in Dallas or Jake Luton in Jacksonville like that those I think it might work but there are other quarterbacks they're going to face where I'm not so sure certainly this system you know with a lot of cover too would be a lot better with a pass rush you know it's just you're not going to get the job done with Hercules Mata off of Shamar Stephan Arffen, Armin Watts, Jule Johnson. No disrespect to a lot of those guys, but that's not an above average defensive line. I was thinking a little bit this week, you mentioned how sort of the NFL can be cyclical and one system that works for a number of years

may not forever as coaches adapt and come up with different schemes it is funny to think back to when mike zimmer first got here um taking over for a defense that had played a lot of tampa too he basically came in and said this is insane what what are we doing you got a good cornerback so you can trust to put out there like a xavier rhodes and say just shut this guy down to the point that he had the, I think, now sort of famous remark at a training camp one day, that if I wanted a cover two corner, I could just go down to the Bloomington 7-11 and find one. Well, guess what? The Vikings kind of are going down to the Bloomington 7-11 and finding Chris Jones or, you know, having Anthony Harris play cornerback or Josh Metellus or whatever it ends up being.

But I think that that system can work to a degree for the Vikings. They're still going to have to be a team that relies more on their offense. If their offense can score them 30 points, I like their chances. But is it sustainable to think that you can be this bend but not break? Yes, in the sense that I think you can plan on not allowing a lot of big plays, but no, you're not always going to, as you mentioned, you'll have Eric Kendricks come down with an insane interception off a double move from a tight end to have a quarterback throw the ball straight to Eric Wilson. That part is not sustainable.

The other part is in order to win these last two games the way that they did they needed to not turn the ball over at all aside from blocked punts at the end of the game which you know I don't know I don't know what the explanation there is but two block punts in a game was unexpected but sort of typical for a NFC North matchup that always has weird stuff happen but you can't turn the ball over basically at all. And you have to force turnovers on defense and you have to get red zone stops and you have to get third down stops and you have to sustain your drives because otherwise you're not going to hold the football because you're telling these other teams, hey, you can have

a 13 play drive, drive down the field, kick a field goal, or pick the ball off in the end zone or something. That's how we're going to play it. But if you go three and out, it's a problem. I mean, and this offense in earlier games was doing that way too much, going three and out and struggling. And when you look at Delvin Cook, he deserves to be in the MVP conversation at the moment. His numbers are incredible. He misses a game, and he's still leading the league across the board. But he's averaging six yards a carry. Pretty darn hard to average six yards a carry. So that's the next one.

Sustainable or nah, these last two offensive performances. Maybe. This is why I'm putting a ton of stock into this Chicago Bears game. If the Vikings offense moves the ball, if they play well that game, I'm not too concerned about their defense in that one, that offense led by Matt Nagy. You mentioned another NFC North team with a coaching staff that is perplexing to say the least to me.

So if the offense can move the ball against the bears, I will buy into the Vikings as a legit team that can compete for that second wildcard spot. And once you get to the playoffs, who knows what happens. But you have to be able to do it against a good defense. The Vikings have shown that they can run the ball against a bad Packers run defense. You know, they can carve up this Lions defense that somehow has not gotten any better under Matt Patricia, supposedly defensive head coach. You cannot expect your running back though to, as you mentioned, run for six yards a carry to put up 150 yards and two touchdowns in each game.

Like that part is not sustainable. And so I think there needs to be a ton of focus. And I'm sorry if this sounds redundant, but a ton of focus on Kirk Cousins at Soldier Field in this primetime game. Not because it's primetime. I don't care what time they're kicking off. But because he's going up against a good defense when he does not turn the ball over, when he's capable of hitting, you know, he doesn't need massive chunk plays all the time. He's got to hit one or two 30-yard plays to Justin Jefferson, as he did against the Lions with a

nice over-the-shoulder pass to him down the sideline. If he can make those plays, the Vikings have a good enough offense to sustain this, you know, defense that lets you dig and dunk. If not, if he reverts back to one and five Kirk Cousins with 10 interceptions, I just don't see a way that they can legitimately be a playoff contender. So I think we are going to learn a ton about the Vikings on Monday night. So I had the stats here. I'm hunting to find them in my article about his last two games at Soldier Field, Delvin Cooks, but not good. Neither one of them was very good at all.

And last year, even when we you know him being in the MVP conversation right now and as great as he is I don't think anyone questions that but last year in the second half of the season he had 312 yards total and he had 823 through the first eight games last season and we were having this same conversation and it's always the durability how much they ride him I mean yesterday at least they gave Alexander Madison some carries, but when you're in a desperate position, this sort of reminds me of you're a former hockey reporter of like a goaltender when a goaltender is hot.

And then they just say like, carry us every night. And eventually, unless it's Dominic Hasek in the late nineties, that kind of runs out of asking a goaltender to just carry you every night and play 75 games in order to drag you into the playoffs. I think the same way about running backs. These games, he won them for the Vikings. They weren't in third down at all. On three touchdown drives, they had zero third downs. They're throwing screens to him.

He's breaking off big gains. But we've seen this even with Adrian Peterson's career, as great as he was. If they shut him down, it's like, then what's your response? And the response, the last couple times they've played Chicago, when they shut down Delvin Cook with the front four specifically, it's been bad. It's been the response. And with Cousins, in order to show that you can get really hot here and get all the way into playoff contention,

it's show us that you can win a drop-back passing game. And he's just not been able to do that at any point. And I wonder, Chad, if Gary Kubiak's offense is just so much designed to play from ahead, what they're going to do if they do get punched in the mouth by Chicago, if they do get down 10 points, and if Delvin Cook is being slowed down. Every time we've seen that this year, it's been very much problematic for Cousins. Yeah, and you mentioned those Bears games. Those were not just bad games for Cook.

Those were, I think, two of the worst games that we've seen from Kirk Cousins at least heading into this season and I don't think that's a coincidence when he has everything else going around and when Dalvin Cook is running like crazy Kirk Cousins can be a very good quarterback but in order to overcome a one in five start and actually be a playoff contender he's going to have to make plays and I hate to harp on this part because I think it's still a little bit unknown. But entering the bye, he was throwing downfield more than any other quarterback. Is that why he was also leading the league in interceptions?

I don't know. I think that there were also, you know, when you look at all the interceptions, not all of them, it wasn't like they were all 30-yard heaves. I don't know that that's exactly correlated as it may look. But at the bye, he told us, you know, I think when we were asking about interceptions and he was talking about wanting to be a little more careful, he mentioned, you know, maybe I need to take some more underneath routes, some shorter routes. Then after the bye, of course, they go to the Packers, and that was the game where he didn't throw a single pass

farther than eight yards. That one I give him a little bit of a break. We talked about the wind. It was crazy. If that was a one-off thing, then so be it. He didn't really need to take a ton of shots. Took two or three on Sunday against the Lions. Hit one of them to Justin Jefferson. But that is, I think, one of the things that I'll be watching most closely on Monday against the Bears. Is he able to push the ball downfield? The Bears are going to load the box. They are going to do everything that they can to shut down Dalvin Cook. It's worked for two

years in a row. Their strategy has been, we are going to take your best offensive player out of the game. Beat us with your other weapons. You paid this quarterback all this money, beat us. You have these great wide receivers that you love so much, beat us with them. We are not going to let you beat us with number 33, and it's worked for them. So that's what I'll be watching. Kirk Cousins, are you able to throw the ball downfield? Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, can you help out your quarterback by creating lots of separation against the defense

that presumably will give you a little bit of space? We'll find out. I just think that this Monday night game against the Bears is going to be so, so telling. I totally agree that this Monday night game against the Bears is going to be so, so telling. I totally agree. And here's what it comes down to for me is sustainable or not the offensive line, because these last two weeks, the performances have been very, very good. But pro football focus ranks the Bears as the sixth best pass rushing team in the nfl and we know the characters that are playing for them i mean akim hicks is a murderer and khalil mac is maybe the best player

at that position in the entire nfl those aren't their only players i mean last year i think it was uh akim hicks was hurt and they still mauled the vikings um eddie goldman is not playing this year but they have other guys who rotate in who are just excellent on the defensive line. And as good as it's been for the Vikings, there's something wrong in Green Bay, for one. I don't know why they just give up a thousand yards rushing to anyone who wants to hand off, but that's what's been going on. And then Detroit is a disaster. So you go against a team that really knows what it's doing on defense and has terrifying, beastly defensive linemen. And I think about the game against San Francisco in the playoffs last year, where they just had a great defensive line. And that has been

the antidote to the Vikings offensive scheme for several years now. I mean, they built an offensive line still, even with Ezra Cleveland in there, that's a little different, but mostly to be a great run blocking team. And when you can get overpowered, that's where shutting down the run game with your front four pretty much eliminates what the Vikings are able to do on offense. And I don't even think that you have to go back to that San Francisco game. I think when you think in your mind over the last couple of years about what some of the worst games have been for this offensive line. And there are a few of them. Two of them were at Soldier Field.

The Bears just absolutely demolished them in a couple of those games. That was, you know, some of the worst offensive outputs that we have seen from the Vikings over the last two or three years. And in no small part because of that. I think I am actually more optimistic, though, about this offensive line's chances than I was in recent years. I think Ezra Cleveland plays a big part in that. Coming off a couple strong games, I think Riley Reif is quietly putting together a halfway decent season, which was both surprising to me and also, I think, part of the reason why the Tennessee Titans, according to NFL Network, tried to trade for him. and the Vikings said, no, we're good.

We're going to try to compete for the playoffs. But between those two, between Brian O'Neill, Garrett Bradbury, I had some big concerns that he was just going to turn into a bust even after two years, just because that rookie season, there were so many peaks and valleys. And the valleys were very low, including against the Bears. I think it was that he had his infamous 0.0 rating from pro football focus. So because he's playing well, you know, I think Dakota Dozier is still going to have a few plays where he's just straight-up beat. But the offensive line, I think, has put together two decent games.

And no, they were not against the best pass rushers. It'll be completely different on Monday night, but I think there's at least some reason for hope where in past years going to soldier field, you kind of knew going in that they were just going to get demolished. I want to remind you to go to sodastick.com to get your original Minnesota sports inspired goods for all of you hunters out there. You can go to sodastick.com to get your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. For all of you hunters out there, Soda Stick has some very cool hunting gear available that you need to check out,

including their Mick Golden Light Hunting Club hats that our pal Jeremiah Searles has been wearing lately on his excursions. All of their apparel is screen-printed here in Minnesota. Super soft, super comfy shirts, hoodies. You will love it. We're going to also hook you up with free shipping on your next order. Use the promo code PURPLEINSIDER for free shipping. That is SOTASTICK, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com. Original Minnesota sports inspired goods. Code PURPLEINSIDER for free shipping. So we've had the perception that Garrett Bradbury has been improved in pass blocking,

but at least according to PFF, that has not been the case. They grade him extremely well in the run game. No surprise. The run game is terrific. He is 27th of 31 centers in terms of pass blocking. So I think we'll see him attacked a lot. And with Riley Reifif he has played tremendously tremendously well and I've even been wondering if they want to sign him to an extension after this

or if he would considering he had to take a pay cut for the Yanni Kingakwe thing I'm sure they're not his side is not thrilled about that still but a lot more money always solves all the problems right and the way that he's played if you can get average play from your left tackle then that's good and that'll give you enough to throw it but also who's the best edge rusher that he's played against this year now Z'Darrius Smith did not have to run rush the passer very often in that in that Packers game because of the win and because Dalvin Cook was running over them. It just,

it hasn't been one of those, you know, Seattle is a pretty bad team in terms of pressure. Jadavia and Clowney didn't rush over Riley reef very often. And also that Tennessee defense is not particularly good. Like so far, he's kind of gotten a pretty favorable schedule and Chicago is where you don't get the favorable look and we'll see it was very interesting a couple years ago the Bears just said hey Khalil Mack go to the other side you usually

rush over you know Brian O'Neill but he can handle you go demolish Riley Reif and he's done that for a couple of games in a row but I do think Ezra Cleveland is a game changer that you went from having a severe weakness in pass protection at center, severe weakness at right and left guard. The right guard didn't know where you're supposed to run. I mean, it was amazing to watch Drew Samia out there, like not understanding what the plays were. And now you have a guy who has played pretty well through three games.

I mean, I think that that takes them from being an absolute abomination of an offensive line all the way up to looking much more average, which is good. And that's why I think you would still give the advantage to Chicago in that situation. But it's why I think there's just even a little bit of hope going to Soldier Field is a huge win for the Vikings given how recent games

have gone. And that's where they are. And I think that also gets back to what we were talking about earlier with, if they can get Dalvin Cook going early, get that run blocking going, they don't need this to be a game where they get ahead a couple of scores, I think. I don't have, you know, any faith in the Bears' offense. So as long as they can, you know, avoid trailing, especially early,

which, you know, is what you mentioned where Gary Kubiak's offense can seem to get off script a little bit, where Kirk Cousins maybe, you know avoid trailing especially early which you know is what you mentioned where Gary Kubiak's offense can seem to get off script a little bit where Kirk Cousins maybe you know starts pressing a little bit if they can just keep this a game through the first half I really like their chances it I was talking to Arif Hasan my colleague at the athletic before we left the press box on Sunday and I said what do you think the spread is going to be for Vikings Bears we both kind of thought about it we both predicted that the Bears were actually going to be favorites maybe by two or three points instead Vegas says the Vikings are two and a half point favorites and I think it was such a funny point because Vikings fans look at that and say are you kidding me have you not watched

the games at Soldier Field and then you see the Bears fans like, our offense is terrible. Why would anybody pick us? It's just a funny matchup to me, too, of two fan bases who are both expecting the worst in this game. And whichever team wins, you know, despite lots of struggles already this season, whichever team wins is going to, I think, be in the playoff hunt come December. There is an incredible amount of mediocrity in the NFC. It is remarkable. And we even watched it, teams that are allegedly the best, and New Orleans just blows out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,

and it makes you wonder, is Tampa Bay even a legitimate Super Bowl contender at all? I mean, Brady looked very old, and their defense looked more vulnerable than they had in previous weeks. And I'm also not sold that a quarterback who can't throw it more than 11 yards down the field can actually, you know, be as dangerous as Drew Brees looked against the Bucs long-term and throughout the playoffs. And I think that that was exactly what the Vikings took advantage of in the playoffs last year, is that Drew Brees can't throw the ball

any more than 11 yards down the field. Going back to just, you know, okay, let's say that they play the Bears and Vegas turns out to be right and they beat the Bears. I look at the path as still being extremely difficult for the Vikings, and I don't mean necessarily the schedule, because the schedule you've got the Cowboys, then the Panthers, who I think could beat the Vikings still the way they played against Kansas City, but you've got the Jaguars and then your tough games come in the Bucks and the Bears and the Saints and so forth. But, you know, okay, you can get back in the race, but how good you actually have to be is where I get caught up here. I get caught up on, okay, you need the Rams to collapse because you're down two games to them. You need nobody else behind you like Atlanta to get hot

like you are. You need even Detroit to not turn it around. If they fire Patricia, they're going to win some games. I still am in the mode of thinking a second-half turnaround would be more of a moral victory than anything else because the hole that you put yourself in was so deep, even with seven teams going in, that's just a tough road to hoe. I would say two things to that. One, I think they are, in some senses, almost looking for a moral victory. If they go from 1-5 to eight and eight and just miss out on the second wildcard spot,

I think then you can hear Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman patting themselves on the back from us bank stadium. You would know fans. They're saying, you know, what a turnaround we had. Why would you even question looking elsewhere? We got to run this whole thing back.

We redid the whole defense with no off season. So I think they are, in some senses, kind of looking for a little bit of a moral victory. But two, followers of yours will know that you had, I think, my favorite comparison for the Viking situation, at least where Rick Spielman thinks they are, which is, in your words, it would be like a NASCAR race where the Vikings think they have the fastest car, and yet they're in 39th place and need a, you know, 38-car pileup in order to get all the way to the front where they need to be to get into the playoffs. I think at this point, there's been a five-car pileup. The NFC, as you mentioned, is all over the map. This is not going to be a runaway by

any stretch. If you get past the Bears, maybe suddenly you're looking at like a 10-12 car pileup, but as you mentioned, you're still going to need a lot of work after that, but you beat the Bears. I don't think seven and five is crazy. Like the Cowboys and the Jags do absolutely nothing for me. I said the same thing about the Falcons before they came to US Bank and beat the Vikings. So take that with a grain of salt. But those two teams do nothing for me in terms of thinking that the Vikings wouldn't be able to beat them.

Then you have the Teddy Bridgewater revenge game. The Panthers are frisky, so I'm not ready to call that a win. I think if you can get out of this stretch at 6-6 going into December, you have harder games in December to be sure. So it's far from a sure thing, but you get to six and six, you at least give yourself a chance to finish eight and eight. That probably doesn't get you in the playoffs, but I think it gets you to the point where you have the confidence to run this

whole thing back again. Mike Zimmer says the defense is going to be better next year. Rick Spielman says, you know, when I redid all this, we didn't know that the pandemic was coming and we weren't going to have all these practices. So give us another year. We go every other year. We're good one year.

We're bad the next. We're good one year. So watch how good we're going to be next year. And I think that's probably the most likely outcome is that they finish somewhat strong, strong enough to bring everybody back. Kirk Cousins is back. You don't draft a quarterback. The regime is back, but not good enough probably to make the playoffs. And I can just hear half of the fan base, if not more, screaming as you say that, that the most likely outcome is coming a game or two short

of the playoffs and then having everyone talk about their participation trophies for the year. And it is always funny about how these people talk to us every week about, like, oh, it's football, it's win or lose, it's life or death. And then you're like, hey, you know, you went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. What are you guys going to do? Hey, hey, look, we were really good in the second half, okay? And it sort of is funny, but you can see the writing on the wall because of the schedule. And the problem is, the nascar example that we're talking about um you need to

not get a flat tire or be short on gas or even just like hit a little bump because if your car slows down the tiniest bit if the wind changes in your direction and you lose to jacksonville which you could i mean they played played Houston close the other day. You played Houston close. You look at Dallas and think about this, about Dallas. This quarterback they have played in AAF. So, no, you're not terrified of him. But he looked competent and they have CeeDee Lamb.

They have Amari Cooper. They have Michael Gallup. They have good receivers and you have terrible corners. That is not a great matchup for you. They have a terrible offensive line that keeps ruining all their games, but you can't rush the passer. So you're going to let AAF man stand up there or Andy Dalton, and if Andy Dalton comes back, he's a good quarterback.

I mean, at least in terms of the highest end of backups. You lost to Matt Moore last year. You lost to Chase Daniel last year. my point is just that you have to have no blips on the radar when we fill out the beginning of the season and we write our little w's and l's next to the schedule and write our articles what will the vikings record be um we always fill in the obvious w's and l's it never works out that way but yet we're convinced that it's going to work out that way for the second half of the season that I really can't get around on and so I guess where this all ties us back into Chad is the trade deadline and not making the deal that you alluded to to move on from Riley

Reif who's playing very well and will never be more valuable in terms of a trade than he was at the trade deadline um are they going to have regrets? I guess is my question. Are we going to get to that nightmare scenario for a lot of fans where they go, gosh, you guys bought into yourself and you still ended up 5-11 or you still ended up 6-10 and you didn't make the moves that you needed to make because everybody was desperate to show the moral victory of the second half that, hey, look, Wilfsfs we're going in the right direction now I'm not saying that um

they wouldn't be in the right direction for 2021 they would I mean they would be in a much better direction where you can add pieces and such your cap situation's still not great you wouldn't have a super high draft pick you wouldn't really have an answer at quarterback for the future or at least a way to get to that rookie quarterback contract. I mean, I guess I'm looking at it and saying that's kind of where you're headed right now. You're looking at it and saying that's not the direction that's going to get you a Super Bowl the fastest. I think what you need to be looking at it, though, is Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman want to keep their jobs. And to keep their jobs, they need to finish, you know, with a moral victory in missing the playoffs,

whether that's 7-9 or 8-8 or whatever it is. And then at that point, you know, I think you're going to be transitioning hashtag skull searching from looking at Justin Fields and whatever quarterbacks the Vikings may draft to defensive tackles, skull searching, opposite guards, whatever it ends up being. So that would be my guess as to how this likely plays out. But at that point, you know, at least December would be interesting. I still don't know if they have the horsepower.

Like that whole NASCAR analogy relies on the fact that they have the fastest car. I'm not convinced that of those teams competing for that second wild card spot that they do have the fastest car, and they still need a lot to go right for them. So I think 8-8 is probably best-case scenario. You do need to – if they beat the Bears, I'll start buying in a little bit more. Vegas says they should beat the Bears. That indicates to me more than anything else that the Bears are just not a very good team despite their five-in-one start. They've lost three

games in a row for a reason. They've switched quarterbacks for a reason. They're still struggling on offense. So you beat the Bears. I'll start buying in a lot more, but I just have thought going to Soldier Field so many times before, this is where it turns around for the Vikings, and it does not. Even though sports took a break, your business didn't. You have to keep moving, and that means hiring is more important than ever. Indeed is here to help. Indeed.com is the number one job site in the world because Indeed gets you the best people fast.

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and clearly the Lambeau advantage was just gone. In fact, I think it was a Vikings advantage with the fact that it was windy there. You know, in an odd season with as many strange things that have happened and will continue to happen, I'm sure, and the NFC is weak, you should try to make the playoffs. I'm not saying that at this moment you should bench cousins and play Jake Browning and try to lose every game I'm not suggesting that just that if there's a moment that they may have looked back at and said you know we could have added a couple

of draft picks even if they weren't great draft picks they were still draft picks that you could use eventually to move up and take whoever you want in the first or second, get back into the second round or whatever it might be, that maybe you'll regret that if you end up seven and nine and really nowhere close because you had a couple of blips on the radar. And I just, I just fundamentally do not believe, like you can convince me 2021 will be great. I don't believe that you should look at a second half of the season and just splice it up how you want. I think it was like Bill James in the seventies or something that said, you know, these arbitrary end points are really not great.

You should use the biggest sample that you can find. The big sample is you were not that good this year, even if you have a second half run and you look at Atlanta last year, didn't they win like six of their last eight? They talked about, Oh, Dan Quinn saved his job. I'm for long. I mean, right. So running running it all back doing the same thing over and over again just because you had a good second half of the season i question the validity of that thinking the one thing that i would add when looking at these moves and you know thinking whether or not

they'll regret me is if you're not going to trade riley reith if you're going to say we got a fast car we think we can make something happen, why trade Yannick Ngakwe? I get that he was not a perfect fit. He was not amazing. Your return on that was a third-round pick. Guess what you get if he walks away in free agency? You get a third-round pick.

Granted, it would be one year later, but at that point, I don't think that makes a huge difference that you have to, you know, trade him after getting six games worth of play from him. He, you know, was clearly nowhere close to Danil Hunter's level. You know, he's probably, I think, a slightly above average defense event. I think some team is probably going to wildly overpay for him in this coming offseason. But if you're going to, you know, try to build some hope and think that you can string together some wins and make something happen.

I don't see what the point of trading him was. You get a little extra cap space, but if you don't do anything with the cap space, what difference does it make? So if you trade in Gawkway, then I would think that you would take a fourth or fifth round pick or whatever you can get for Riley Reif. If you don't, then I just don't know what the point is of getting that third round pick one year sooner. You know what it is? I think the Timberwolves have made this mistake for a long time where they sort of chase trends like we'll chase, oh, you know, defense

wins. So let's hire Tibbs because that's what we need is we need a defense. And then that doesn't work, so they say, you know what? We should chase these three-pointers. Man, everyone's hitting them and killing us with these threes. And you trade all these players and you get three-pointers, but the whole league has already kind of been doing that. And I think of the same way for this where it's just it was, oh, we're 1-5. We better start moving out some of the assets oh we beat the packers we better not move the assets and i just i've always thought

and and i don't mean to sound like colin cowherd here at all but like in in anything in music or in movies when you chase trends as opposed to having a sustainable direction i think it can be a problem like if you decide okay in the 80s everybody's using synths now like that's fantastic because you just made final countdown it's a big hit but you know if you keep trying to do you know okay now we're going to go from synths to whatever else uh you know is uh we're going to do hip hop now or something like maybe it's a silly comparison, but just going wherever the wind takes you. I think it ends up being a mistake. I agree with you that if you were going to believe that you could win still, then keep Ngakwe, let him get a handful of strip sacks and go from there. I mean, he could be a difference maker,

at least with big plays. And if you don't believe you can win, then sell everything. Don't go somewhere in the middle. And that's how you got here. And that's kind of what they did. I didn't think about it like that, but that is exactly how they got here was sort of straddling both lines. We're not going to do a full rebuild.

We're going to retool. We're still going to compete for the playoffs. And then they kind of just doubled down on that by not making any more moves at last week's trade deadline um will it pay off for them you know i think it'll pay off for them in the sense that rick spielman and mike zimmer and kirk cousins will probably all be back again next year kirk cousins will probably be the starter mike zimmer will probably be the coach you run it back again you see maybe you can catch some of that magic of every other year it works out for you. And then I think after that, if it doesn't work out at that point,

that's when you draft a quarterback. That's when you, you know, make a coaching change or whatever it ends up being. But the days, you know, which I think were only about two and a half weeks ago after they lost to the Falcons, when we were talking about, you know, potential, you know, Joe Brady, are they going to bring Joecons when we were talking about, you know, potential, you know, Joe Brady, are they going to bring Joe Brady in and really revamp this? Or are they going to draft Justin Fields and, and really change what the offense looks like with a rookie quarterback?

I think they've probably done enough to about put that to bed, especially if they take care of things in this, you know, little stretch of easy games as I think they probably will. Are you going to pick them to beat the Bears, or have you not decided yet? I haven't decided yet. You know, I think I am. I guess I think this way every time that they go to Soldier Field. I start to think, you know, the Bears are just not that good.

I picked the Bears to finish last place in the NFC North this year, and I think nothing of the Lions. So let that tell you what I think of the Bears and Matt Nagy and Nick Foles and Mitch Dabriskie and, you know, a running game that is, you know, they try often and never works. I think their leading rusher in a game this season has been above 60 yards once. Compare that to obviously what dalvin cook is

doing or any other team and it's not like uh they're the chiefs where they could get away with doing that they can't really throw the ball that well either so i just don't see a reason why the vikings shouldn't be able to beat them and yet uh i've thought that plenty of times in the past have been proven wrong plenty of times they have the kryptonite that's been the thing i don't even think matt negi knows what he's doing in terms of offense but they just have the kryptonite they have the defensive line and i think that's been the difference so i probably i don't know i probably will also pick them but i'm not going to be confident in it. Here's how you'll know when I make my pick. If I've gone back and watched the 2019 game at Soldier Field,

I'll pick the Bears. So if you see me pick the Bears, that means that this week I was bored enough to go back and watch that game. If you see me pick the Vikings, that means I had some other things going on. I found a new show on Netflix. I never went back and watched that game. I was indoctrinated quickly into this problematic relationship they have with Soldier Field in 2016, the first game that I covered Vikings and Bears. And I think it was a 70-yard run on the second play from scrimmage

from Jordan Howard. And maybe Chicago had one win and the Vikings were 5-1 at that point, just a complete and utter meltdown. And from then on, I guess I should say I should just never pick the Vikings there because there's too much history, but I also am not sure how much that matters. So anyway, Chad, your work at The Athletic is tremendous. People should go check it out if they have not already. Great to catch up with you again, and I'm sorry about golf season. It's over. It's finally over. Looking outside at a

cold rainy day the golf clubs are now in the basement they've been washed off and uh and you know maybe as we're studying defensive tackles for next year's draft we can go get another round in pour out a diet dr pepper for golf season thanks chad thank you so much for having me on